Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early WR Rankings Part 2

Summary

Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early WR Rankings Part 2 Summary

Release Date: April 6, 2017

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I. Introduction

In this episode of Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve into the latest developments in the fantasy football landscape, with a particular focus on early wide receiver (WR) rankings. Skipping over promotional segments, the trio concentrates on providing in-depth analysis and actionable insights to help listeners optimize their fantasy teams.

II. Marshawn Lynch’s Potential Return to the Raiders

A significant portion of the episode revolves around the tantalizing news of Marshawn Lynch potentially returning to the Oakland Raiders. The discussion begins around the [03:40] mark when Andy Holloway shares breaking news about Lynch’s visit to the Raiders following discussions with the Seattle Seahawks' management.

• Andy Holloway expresses strong confidence in Lynch’s return:

  "Marshawn Lynch is going to come back and play for the Raiders." [05:27]

• Jason Moore debates the certainty of Lynch's return, ultimately stating:

  "I believe Marshawn Lynch will sign with the Raiders." [05:56]

• Mike Wright analyzes the strategic advantages for the Raiders in securing Lynch before the draft, emphasizing the potential boost to their running back (RB) position:

  "Oakland would definitely prefer to sign him before the draft so that they can... add a legitimate impact player this year and help the team." [06:18]

The hosts discuss the implications of Lynch's return on both the Raiders' performance and fantasy football strategies, noting his age and past performance metrics. They consider the likelihood of Lynch becoming a solid RB with RB1 potential, contingent on his health and usage within the Raiders' offensive scheme.

III. Early Wide Receiver Rankings Part 2

Following the discussion on Lynch, the hosts transition to their primary focus: early wide receiver rankings. Covering WRs ranked #11 through #20, each player is examined for their fantasy potential, consistency, and draft value.

1. #11 Doug Baldwin

• Andy Holloway praises Baldwin's historical performance and rapport with quarterback Russell Wilson:

  "He is the clear number one target for Russell Wilson..." [21:05]

• Mike Wright highlights Baldwin’s inconsistency despite past successes:

  "He is very, very inconsistent." [22:20]

Baldwin is recognized for his high upside and potential to be a top-tier WR, though his volatility raises concerns about reliability.

2. #12 Demarius Thomas

• Andy Holloway considers Thomas a valuable pick due to his past performance and longevity:

  "Demarius Thomas is going to be one of the best values in fantasy football this year." [24:49]

• Jason Moore notes the potential in Thomas's yardage despite fluctuating touchdowns:

  "If Demarius is going in the fourth round, then I'm all on board with getting Demarius." [26:16]

Thomas is viewed as a consistent WR2 option with significant yardage potential, especially if the Denver offense improves.

3. #13 Larry Fitzgerald

• Mike Wright commends Fitzgerald for leading in receptions and his enduring excellence:

  "He led 107 receptions. This is his going out campaign as well." [30:10]

• Jason Moore emphasizes Fitzgerald's PPR (points per reception) value, despite touchdown variability:

  "You cannot bank on, well, I'm going to get 10 touchdowns from Larry Fitzgerald. You're probably not." [30:00]

Fitzgerald is considered a reliable PPR asset, though his touchdown ceiling may not match his reception totals.

4. #14 Allen Robinson

• Andy Holloway expresses cautious optimism about Robinson’s potential bounce-back:

  "I'm projecting his point totals, I'm probably putting him between 1100 yards, maybe a little over a thousand to 1100 yards." [34:34]

• Jason Moore critiques the lack of improvement and consistency from Robinson:

  "The narrative is that efficiency number. The truth lies somewhere in the middle." [34:02]

Robinson remains a high-upside option if Jacksonville's offense stabilizes, but concerns about his health and efficiency persist.

5. #15 Michael Crabtree

• Andy Holloway lauds Crabtree’s improved performance and rapport with quarterback Derek Carr:

  "He was tied for fourth in red zone targets with 21. He was ninth in total receptions." [37:52]

• Mike Wright focuses on Crabtree’s consistent red-zone usage as a key fantasy asset:

  "He has extreme potential, great upside, but he actually goes deep, unlike Keenan Allen." [56:42]

Crabtree is regarded as a solid WR2 with dependable targets and touchdown opportunities, making him a valuable mid-round pick.

6. #16 Devonte Adams

• Jason Moore reinforces Adams's strong connection with quarterback Aaron Rodgers:

  "Aaron Rodgers can sustain two high-level wide receivers... Devonte Adams the wide receiver 8." [41:03]

• Mike Wright appreciates Adams’s touchdown potential:

  "He is just a touchdown machine." [40:38]

Adams is highlighted for his high touchdown ceiling and role within the Packers’ offense, positioning him as a high-value WR in standard leagues.

7. #17 Alshon Jeffery

• Andy Holloway expresses skepticism about Jeffery’s recent performance and health:

  "Jason is telling us it's time to pump the brakes on Alshon Jeffery hype." [47:17]

• Mike Wright underscores the inconsistency in Jeffery’s touchdown production:

  "He is a good wide receiver, you know, but I think it's more gloss on the name than it is fantasy production." [47:56]

Jeffery is viewed as a WR with significant potential if healthy, but recent injuries and inconsistent usage dampen his appeal.

8. #18 Jarvis Landry

• Mike Wright acknowledges Landry’s consistency in PPR formats but notes his drop in standard league performance:

  "He is a PPR type of player, certainly. And this was in standard leagues." [51:36]

• Jason Moore points out Landry’s fluctuating reception numbers:

  "He has extreme potential, great upside, but he actually goes deep, unlike Keenan Allen." [56:42]

Landry remains a dependable option in PPR leagues, though his standard league value may be less impressive due to lower touchdown totals.

9. #19 Keenan Allen

• Andy Holloway criticizes Allen’s injury history and questions his reliability:

  "He played half of football... he won't end up on my team because of the draft position." [52:58]

• Jason Moore defends Allen’s talent but acknowledges his injury risks:

  "He is extremely talented... but that's where I just don't think that's gonna happen." [55:53]

Allen is considered a high-risk, high-reward pick due to his exceptional talent offset by significant injury concerns.

10. #20 Sammy Watkins

• Mike Wright discusses Watkins’ deep-ball potential but highlights his dependency on being the primary target:

  "He has extreme potential, great upside, but he actually goes deep." [56:42]

• Andy Holloway critiques Watkins’ lack of recent production and injury history:

  "He was 89th last year. Jason... he's right, barely helped users." [52:47]

Watkins is viewed as a WR with significant upside in big-play scenarios but plagued by inconsistency and limited usage.

IV. Conclusion

The episode concludes with the hosts emphasizing the depth of the wide receiver position and the importance of tier-based drafting. They encourage listeners to utilize their draft kits available at ultimate draft kit.com for comprehensive WR analysis. The hosts also briefly touch upon their rankings from #21 to #30, mentioning notable names like Emmanuel Sanders, Brandon Cooks, and others.

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway: "Marshawn Lynch is going to come back and play for the Raiders." [05:27]
• Mike Wright: "He is very, very inconsistent." [22:20]
• Jason Moore: "He is just a touchdown machine." [40:38]

Overall, the episode provides a thorough examination of emerging wide receivers, offering listeners strategic insights to enhance their fantasy football drafts and team management.

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Remember: For more detailed rankings and analysis, visit fantasyfootballers.com and join the community at jointhefoot.com.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Before we start today's show, I just wanted to take a quick second and invite you to come alongside this show. You enjoy this podcast all year round. The Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Come to Our community website, JoinTheFoot.com join more than 2700 fantasy football players and Foot Clan members as well as us, Andy, Mike, and Jason on this exclusive community wall where we discuss everything. You get exclusive episodes, you get access to Foot Clan leagues. You get in season, expanded projections and flex ranks and game day updates. And the perks. The perks are crazy, all right? They're crazy perks. Mad perks. All right? So check it out. Jointhefoot.com let's get to the show.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from the fantasyjocks.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Bride.

[Andy Holloway]

It's a beautiful day, look out, it's a beautiful day the sun is shining a little bit brighter the songbirds are singing Tweedle Dee Something is in the air.

[Mike Wright]

Well, we are three weeks to the day, gentlemen, from the NFL draft.

[Jason Moore]

We are indeed.

[Mike Wright]

And you guys, over the next couple weeks, we have a monster, awesome rookie show that we will be doing, you know, about a week before the draft. So if you're, if you wanted to enjoy the NFL draft this year and know all the guys to look for before the draft, stay tuned.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah, it's great. You get a picture of all the fantasy relevant players and then you get to watch the draft and see where they land and then get the feedback on the other end. But that, you know that that's one reason that the sun's shining a little brighter today. There are other reasons.

[Jason Moore]

What could that possibly be, Andy?

[Andy Holloway]

We'll get into it in just a minute. I want to welcome everybody to the show. Let them know what we're doing on the show today other than discussing some wonderful news that has come out recently. Here's what we're doing. This is. Bleh.

[Jason Moore]

You can't even speak.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I can't.

[Jason Moore]

You're so excited to talk about this blurb that's coming up that you can't even.

[Andy Holloway]

It's more than one blurb.

[Jason Moore]

You cannot form blurbs. Whatever.

[Andy Holloway]

This is the second wide receiver show. We did our wide receiver early consensus rankings on Tuesday. We went through 1 through 10. Today we're going to go 11 through 20 and then I'll probably give you some more names. These are early wide receiver rankings. This will get you a picture of where we have the wide receiver position right now. I went on a radio show this morning and the host was asking me, you know, what's something that you learned from last year that will affect your fantasy game this year? And we've talked about a little on the show, but last year there was a really, really strong push towards the wide receiver position and some doubts at the running back position. And I think I said, you know, I kind of said the pendulum is going to swing a little bit back towards the running back. We, we talked already in our running back show about Zeke and David Johnson and lev Bell, Shady McCoy, some of these big name running backs that can be stalwarts for your fantasy team. Well, today we're going to get into some of the second tier wide receivers, guys that we see that have the upside, which guys can be top five guys, which guys belong in this tier without the potential to move up. And a lot of the ins and outs and research that has been done here at Foot Clan headquarters. So I'm very excited about the show today. You can find us on the web at the fantasy footballers.com and like I said in the intro, the community is jointhefoot.com you guys want to talk some news?

[Mike Wright]

Certain Mike does news and notes from around the league.

[Andy Holloway]

It's been a tough decision for me. How you know how to talk about this today.

[Jason Moore]

I understand.

[Andy Holloway]

So I was on a phone call yesterday and apparently some news had broken and Brooks was apparently just waiting with bated breath for me to get off this phone call. And then he said, hey, there's some news. Mike's like, you're gonna like it. You know, as Mike says things that's like, as happy as Mike can say something, you're going to like it. So I walked over and I saw the news. Marshawn lynch visiting the Raiders yesterday with permission from the Seattle Seahawks. We know that Marshawn went to Seattle and had a meeting with Pete Carroll and ownership clearly to discuss the potential of coming back and playing. And on this show we have, we have had different opinions on whether or not he would come back. And so he has not signed with Oakland yet. It has been my contention constantly that of all the people that Marshawn lynch wants to troll, Oakland is not who he wants to troll. You go look at that beast mode gear. He's been repping Oakland in that beast mode gear for years. He doesn't want, in my opinion, to lead them down the wrong road just to sell some shirts. And so that being said, he hasn't signed. So I'm going to, you know, I'm going to be Very humble about this, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

I'm ready.

[Andy Holloway]

I just.

[Jason Moore]

What do you. What do you got for me?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you're wrong. I'm 100% now. I'm 100%. It's a done deal. I'm gonna go out there and say it. I mean, I've always kind of been that in my heart. I put the 60% out. It's up to 100%. Marshawn lynch is going to come back and play for the Raiders.

[Mike Wright]

The real question here, that everybody wants to know, who has been listening to this Marshawn lynch saga over the last few weeks is really, Mike, what is your percentage?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I haven't really thought of a percentage, but I mean, this.

[Mike Wright]

Do you think he's going to sign? Based on the current news at this.

[Jason Moore]

Point, you have to buy into that. He is going to sign with the Oakland Raiders. He will unretire. The question for me is I would not put myself at 100%. I think a lot of things obviously still need to fall in place. And I'm trying to think of the timing of things. Would Oakland sign him before the draft?

[Mike Wright]

Oakland would definitely prefer to sign him before the draft so that they can. I mean, I definitely think so. You can argue that they want to see what running backs fall where exactly. But the. I think the better argument for a team in their position that is set up to win now and compete would be that it would be better for them before the draft to take care of one of their positions and then go into the draft and say, okay, now we don't have to worry about the running back position this year. Next year's running back draft class is very deep. We can worry about that next year and now add another piece in that third round instead of taking a third round running back or maybe a second round if they were looking there and add a legitimate impact player this year and help the team. So I think it'll be over the next three weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

And you kind of have to wonder how done this has been. This might have been. This might be a lot more of a done deal and has been for a while in Oakland's mind in the sense that they didn't bring in Adrian Peterson, they didn't bring in free agent running backs to compete for that position. This has been plan A, I think, for Oakland. So we'll see. The question for fantasy owners, right?

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

And I've.

[Andy Holloway]

And I know we're going to disagree a little bit on this, but what will Marshawn lynch be? Where should he be drafted? Let's just go with the thought that this carries on to fruition.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Things fall into place. Some sort of trade happens. That's what I think will happen. By the way, I do think that Oakland, Seattle will complete a trade. I don't think he'll be released by Seattle. I think there'll be some marginal. It'll be one of those things like a late round pick or a pick swapping around something like that is my opinion. But if he lands in Oakland, sure. He's. He's 30 years old right now. He turns 31 later this month. So he'll be playing at age 31, a year away from the game. We know what he was for four of the five years in Seattle. He was a top five running back. In fact, we'd come on the show and we'd say, look, there's nobody that's finished in the top five at running back consistently year after year other than Marshawn Lynch. In 2015, injuries, there were several games where I think he played like half a game. And then there were many games that he missed. It was not a good final year. Last couple years in Seattle, playing with a tougher offensive line situation. So, Mike, how do you see things playing out? Jason, how do you see things playing out? What is Oakland going to do with Marshawn? And should fantasy owners spin capital? What are the range of possibilities for Marshawn?

[Jason Moore]

So I did a historical look at running backs who are of that age now. It's where this Marshawn situation is interesting because there's a lot of different variables. I mean, you have basically a year and a half to two years off a great offensive line. But these are just the historical trends of what running backs have done at the age of 31. So I took back, took a look. Last year, 11 of 12 of the RB1s had at least 1,000 rushing yards. And the one who did not was Melvin Gordon, who had 997. So essentially every running back one had at least 1,000 rushing yards. The lowest touchdowns of an RB one was Jordan Howard. Total touchdowns, he had seven. Okay. The average amount of touchdowns for a running back one is 12.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

So really? Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Total touchdowns. The average of D.J.

[Mike Wright]

Bringing that up. Got it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Most guys, like I said, the lowest was seven. So most guys were really around 10. Since 2000. Since the year 2000, there's only been 13 running backs of the age 31 and over who had over 1,000 yards. Now, granted, two of those are Frank Gore, so it's not saying it's Impossible. But Frank Gore is also a different kind of beast. So only 13 running backs 31 and older have had over 1,000 yards. Four of those running backs had double digit touchdowns. Seven of those running backs had seven plus. So seven times since the year 2000, a running back the age of 31 or older had a thousand yards and at least seven touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

How often do you think that running backs at that age though, are given the keys to a backfield?

[Mike Wright]

That's what I was just writing down. I'm gonna, I'm gonna research this afterwards.

[Jason Moore]

There's a lot of different variables, but there's, there's plenty of, of running backs who have played at the age of 31.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I was going to look at since 2000, running backs over 31 who had a certain amount of carries. Like if you had 215 carries or more, how often did that happen? And then how did they produce? I'll look that up.

[Jason Moore]

But what you need to factor into that though is not just were they allowed to get 215 carries, is could their body, were they able, would the body allow them to get 215 carries? And Oakland has a pretty hyped up, you know, legendary offensive line around the league. They're tremendous. They're basically the best pass blocking line in the league. The run blocking is not as great as their pass blocking, but still very, very strong.

[Mike Wright]

Hundred times better than Seattle.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Yes, then that's fair. But, but Seattle's offensive line when Marshawn was great was very good. So. But just historically speaking, only seven times has a running back 31 or older put up numbers that would have been a running back one last year.

[Mike Wright]

I can tell you one of those times was Ricky Williams when he was 32 years old and had come off of years of rest like Marshawn has, and he put up 1,121 yards and 11 touchdowns and had a monstrous fantasy season. The other example that comes to mind of a year of kind of rest for an older running back was Adrian Peterson when he had his suspension and then came back and, you know, just set the NFL on fire. So this is going to be interesting. It'll be a nice case study. I believe in that system that Marshawn lynch will have enough touchdown opportunities and touchdown conversions to be very fantasy relevant. But I also think they're not going to give him keys to the kingdom the way that, you know, in Seattle he was, he was really worked. I think they're going to use Rashad and they're going to use DeAndre Washington. So he'll be a solid running back, but I think his potential to be RB1, I think he'll be a low end RB1 similar to how I viewed Latavius.

[Andy Holloway]

My concerns with lynch and looking at the possibility of outcomes are not so much effectiveness. I don't worry about his effectiveness if he's on the field. The age would make me worry about and coming back from a year away would just make me worry about the injury concerns. Like I'd want to protect my Oakland running back investment in Marshawn Lynch. In a draft with a Jalen Richard or a DeAndre Washington as that depth chart kind of comes around, I would want to protect that because I would worry more about the injury to me than the effectiveness. One of the things that lends itself to Marshawn's favor is the fact that they run very similar concepts as they ran in Seattle. I believe Seattle ran, you know, inside zone gap and outside zone 87% of the time. Oakland runs it like 75% of the time. There's some similarities there where he's going to be able to come in and just do what he does. So it's an effectiveness thing from an injury standpoint. That's the worry for me. Very excited to see what happens if it indeed comes to fruition.

[Jason Moore]

So the question now for dynasty people is most dynasty leagues. I would assume. I don't have numbers in front of me, but I would have to imagine that almost all dynasty rosters he has been grabbed in this time period where he was completely free.

[Andy Holloway]

Is he taking in our league?

[Jason Moore]

Yes. And so this question is for you is are you holding on to him and holding out the hope or are you going to sell him on the hype that he has generated? Because I guarantee there is hype. There is somebody out there who will pay for Marshawn Lynch.

[Andy Holloway]

That's why I don't believe Marshawn lynch goes late or is any sort of special value in in redrafts or any other draft. He's got too much of a long term attachment to people. He's done too much four straight double digit touchdown years in Seattle. I will say that I'd like to play him in a dice league, but if someone comes hunting for him, I'm open to trading him. I mean there's no reason I wouldn't want to cash in on that value if it means getting a better long term running back or wide receiver. You have to stay willing to trade a guy like that. You can't just, you know, in a dynasty I can't die on this hill just because it's great. You know, I get to sit here and press the wrong button for you. I have to be willing to trade him.

[Mike Wright]

And he's the perfect kind of target. If you're one of those teams in a dynasty league that you are really in the running, I mean, your team is built for a championship. Now you've got a year left, maybe, maybe two.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he'll play for two years, by the way, just for the record. I think he will play two years in Oakland.

[Mike Wright]

But I'm saying value of what you're going to get, production. I see him like, I'm only banking on this season, but if I wanted a one year rental and give up, you know, a little bit of future, I think there's a good marriage for dynasty.

[Andy Holloway]

We're going to talk about LeGarrett blunt. Last question on lynch though, from Mike. What do you see his kind of basement? If he's healthy, sure. Like, what's his basement like? Because to Jason's point, he's saying, okay, if you're in a dynasty league, you're competing, you might want to go get Marshawn Lynch. What's the worst you're going to get from him? You think if he's healthy, essentially what.

[Jason Moore]

Latavius Murray did last year, I mean, he's going to be. But to me, like, to me, he's more of a mid RB2. The problem is just the odds are against him and his name with this. This being the hype story. Does the hype carry over to actual draft season? And I think it will. I think he will be vastly overdrafted. And I'm not just talking about what round he. He goes in because that's inconsequential. It's just what guys are people passing on to take Marshawn Lynch.

[Andy Holloway]

You take Marshawn lynch or JJ Ajayi in a redraft. Yeah, take Marshawn lynch or do you take Latavius Murray in Minnesota?

[Jason Moore]

That's interesting.

[Mike Wright]

I would take Lynch.

[Jason Moore]

I think I would take lynch on there because I don't really love Murray.

[Andy Holloway]

Lynch or Gurley.

[Mike Wright]

That's a great one for Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man, that's. I feel like I would take lynch right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Lynch or Crow Crowell. Crowell you take.

[Mike Wright]

So you take. So that says Spencer Ware or Marshall. Wait, hold on. That says that any draft. You would take Crowell over Gurley.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Oh, yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. All right.

[Jason Moore]

Todd Gurley's dead to me.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's talk about. Let's Talk about a player who actually had massive production last year and can't find a job. And there's no hype about him. LeGarrett blunt. Look, 18 touchdowns, 1100 yards, and no contract. I mean, being a running back sucks. That is the end of the story. I mean, it's just Adrian Peterson can't find a sniff. Jamal Charles has been buried by teams. I mean, you just. They don't need them. You just go draft one.

[Jason Moore]

Meanwhile.

[Andy Holloway]

Meanwhile, Pierre Garcon. Yeah. Cashes in.

[Jason Moore]

Just. Just got paid.

[Andy Holloway]

I want to be a wide receiver. LeGarrett blunt. There are reports from Ian Rapaport, the Patriots, you know, they have interest in bringing him back, working out a contract.

[Jason Moore]

The Patriots are interested in every single player right now. I mean, Marshawn lynch is the only guy not connected to the Patriots.

[Andy Holloway]

All they've had to do is sit and wait for Legarre Blunt. I think they want him back. But, Mike, how would that make you feel about Rexburg?

[Jason Moore]

I don't. I don't even know. Because if they. If they really brought Legarre Blunt back with the contract that they gave Rex Burkhead, I mean, it's. I suppose it would be, you know, Rip Dion Lewis. To me, if they sign Legarre Blunt, Lewis will be cut shortly thereafter. So it. It becomes a little bit murkier for. What is Burkhead's role? Not. Not that there's any clarity to what Rex Burkhead's role is right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

All right, well, we're going to get into the wide receiver twos. And really, I am not a big fan of most of these guys we're covering today, but before we do that, I want to tell you about someone I am a big fan of. Pristine Auction. We were talking about them before the show. We're always talking about them in the office. If you want amazing memorabilia, things that you can't find at Walmart, you can't find even on most websites, things that are signed by famous players, famous actors, gifts for, you know, your family members, your. You know, sometimes you got that boss and it's like, oh, what do I get my boss as a gift? You want to blow their mind? Go ahead and get them a signed frame, you know, jersey of their favorite player and the prices. Because it's an auction, you just can't believe what you can get sometimes. I mean, it's like my dad came in and looked at the signed jerseys we have, and he's like, whoa, you guys gonna be financially okay?

[Andy Holloway]

It's like, These things are.

[Mike Wright]

These things are steal sometimes. So check them out. Pristine Auction. C R I S T I N E Auction.

[Andy Holloway]

I was just gonna say somebody sent me a picture of their signed Oda Balcom Jr. Jersey, and they sent me a picture of a similar. Almost the same product on ebay. It was literally one fourth the price.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And they're. These are authentic. Yeah, these are 100% certified JSA authentic. So really a great deal.

[Jason Moore]

There are just. For people out there. We've got them up on the wall.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

Mr. Tevin Cole. Man, I think they got a couple of those today if you wanted on that action.

[Andy Holloway]

And I'm, you know, some marshawns coming. All right, here we go.

[Mike Wright]

Wide receivers.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, I've been. Twitter's been a buzz, as, you know, with the march on lynch news, and they all want me to just spend the whole show tearing you down, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Which. Which is also kind of funny because he hasn't signed yet. I had wrong. I. I will admit, at this current juncture, I look very, very wrong. Hold on. All right.

[Mike Wright]

And ironically, right now, you're. You're actually not.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, you're not wrong.

[Jason Moore]

But as of right now, I'm still wrong.

[Mike Wright]

All that means is we get to play that again, you know, in a week.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Number 11 on our early wide receiver consensus rankings, Doug Baldwin. We did a mock draft episode a couple weeks ago, took Doug Baldwin controversial, and for some reason, taking Doug Baldwin, as always is the case, we got the most grief for taking him over Rob Gronkowski in this draft.

[Mike Wright]

People hate Doug Baldwin, and this is seen in many different ways.

[Andy Holloway]

What if his name was Flash Baldwin instead of Doug? Instead of Doug? Do you think that Doug just pulls him down?

[Mike Wright]

He'd get a small bump. But, I mean, you can see in the, you know, all the players that we're talking about you know, today, most. Most of them are going in the second or third round in drafts, and this is the first player we're talking about. He's a little higher up our list. And, you know, he's like back of the third, sometimes going in the fourth. And every year, you know, I mean, since he's kind of broken out.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

He just falls even further before the draft. So I think you're going to get a good value here. But there are major warts on Doug Baldwin. Major, major warts. Because I. I haven't hear you.

[Andy Holloway]

I want to hear this from you because you've always been the proponent of Doug Baldwin. Number eight in 2015, number 10 in 2016. So for all the haters, he's a top 10 wide receiver two straight years.

[Mike Wright]

Two straight years. Top 10 wide receiver two years ago, led the league in receiving touchdowns, came back with seven. Has a great quarterback, has one of the best rapports with a quarterback historically of all time. When you talk about a quarterback's passer rating when targeting a specific wide receiver. So there's a lot to love here. This is why he's high on our list. He is the clear number one target for Russell Wilson, but the warts are. Despite the fact that he finished top 10 two years in a row, he's very, very inconsistent.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

You know, I went through after our last wide receiver show and looked at, you know, Fantasy games under 10 points for all of those wide receivers. I started them all out. How many times did they score under 10 points? How many times they score over? And I was really pleasantly unsub.

[Andy Holloway]

Unsurprised.

[Mike Wright]

Unsurprised. I was pleasantly. What's the word?

[Jason Moore]

Pleasantly disappointed.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I was genuinely going to say. This is. This is what I was going to say. Pleasantly disappointed. Which makes no sense at all. But he. There were only five games last season.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, we have no bananas as a.

[Mike Wright]

Top, you know, wide receiver. Last year, finishing the season, there were only five games where he had over 10 fantasy points. And that's really frustrating. And a lot of his games where he disappeared, they were really gone. Now, I will make the argument that the first half of last season with what we saw with Russell Wilson was just terrible. He couldn't move. I mean, if you just look at the box score on the season, you look at Russell Wilson and go, oh, maybe he stopped running this season. No, he. The second half of last year, he was on pace for, you know, what he always runs for or close to it. But the first half of the year with his ankle injuries, he couldn't move. He wasn't the same quarterback. The offense was terrible. And so hopefully we can see a more consistent Doug Baldwin.

[Jason Moore]

That was the narrative I was buying into as well when I really loved Doug Baldwin. I still like him a lot, but I have actually moved him down slightly.

[Andy Holloway]

Tyler Lockett says he'll be back week one. Does that matter to you?

[Jason Moore]

I think that helps Doug Baldwin. Sure, I love to have a field stretcher, but Doug Baldwin's production overall is actually pretty similar. Is when Russell Wilson was banged up and when Russell Wilson was healthy from first half. Yeah, I thought there would be a noticeable jump once you saw. And you could. You can see when Wilson Got healthy very clearly in his. In his box scores. But Baldwin was just. He just is. He's tough, man, because he's so inconsistent, but he. Then he will give you those games where he just wins you a championship. Doug Baldwin.

[Andy Holloway]

You might have lost one to Doug Baldwin.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. All right. Doug Baldwin's number 11, though, on our ranks. So we have him very high as of today. Number 12 is a guy that I have. Higher than Doug Baldwin. I love Demarius Thomas.

[Jason Moore]

This is all you, man.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, look, Demarius Thomas comes in at number 12. I guess part of that is my fault here with the consensus rankings, but I. I think demarius Thomas is going to be one of the best values in fantasy football this year. He's going in the middle of the fourth round. People are. They were hopeful of a Tony Romo to Denver situation. You're probably going to have Trevor Simeon win that role. Could be Paxton Lynch. It's going to be one of those guys in that Denver offense. But Demaryius Thomas is a machine. He is a machine and he has certainly suffered the past couple of years by subpar quarterback play. But this is a guy who was number five in 2012. Number one. The number two. Those are the Peyton years. He dropped to number 11.

[Jason Moore]

We need a top two quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, but he's played.

[Mike Wright]

How bad was Peyton Manning in his last year?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, 2015, he was. He was a top 12 wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

With the upside, potential possibility of an outcome in the top five. And he's played 16 games five straight years. You know he's going to be on the field. He played 16 games last year, ended up number 16. That's not the end of the world. And especially if you get him in the fourth round, it's still not the end of the world. If he finishes his last year, you can hope that this team makes a step forward with either Simeon or Lynch in quarterback production and play, and that will change the consistency level. But at least you have over 1,000 yards with Demarius. You have touchdown potential. And for me, it's just the draft value. If you told me Demarius is going in the second round because everybody's expecting a top 10 performance, I would be like, okay, go pick somebody else.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I didn't realize that he was going in the fourth. So if that holds up, then I'm. I'm all on board with getting to Mary. So just as the yardage is there, but the touchdowns, the last two years have vanished.

[Mike Wright]

And I think they'll stay. I think they'll stay around there, around where they are. Because prior to Peyton, you know, that's kind of what he was after Peyton.

[Jason Moore]

Well, before Peyton, I mean he was a young buck. Well, he was also, he was very injured his first couple years. I think he had a hand problem and he also had a Tim Tebow problem.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So, you know, I don't expect him to bounce back to that top five, but I actually have him more where Andy does. Andy, you've got him 11, I've got him 13. Because you've got a guy who is far more consistent than some of the other players in this range. Definitely has the capabilities to score touchdowns either from, you know, taking a screen to the house or just from, you know, his, his 50, 50 balls. And you know, when you've got someone that has done it for so many years in the past, it's much easier to put your faith in them to do it again. And this last season he was just outside wide receiver one despite it being the first season with Trevor Simeon. So one more year of continuity there is only going to help.

[Andy Holloway]

And I know we all, I mean we all like Dak Prescott a lot more than the quarterbacks in place and oh yes, in Denver. But you know, Demarys Thomas is a big manimal.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Oh yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a lot like Des in the sense that, you know, there's a high upside for Demarius Thomas that doesn't always exist with every type of wide receiver. And so I like the upside and the potential there. We'll see what happens this next season at the quarterback position. And number 13, a guy that deserves to be talked about more similarly to Doug Baldwin. I think, you know, you just don't respect him. In fantasy draft seven of the last ten years he's been a top 12 wide receiver including the last two years. And that's Larry Fitzgerald. 34 year old Larry Fitzgerald, number 12 last year in 2016 was number nine in 2015. Arizona struggled a little bit last year.

[Jason Moore]

And so Palmer really struggled but still.

[Andy Holloway]

Larry put up a top 12 season. So right now he's a six round pick.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's in a PPR league.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a fifth round pick.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And the thing about Larry Fitzgerald was he, I think that's reflected in his ADP is he is guilty of a monster start. Right. Last year, five touchdowns in the first five games. He only had one touchdown the rest of, of the year. And he had that, he gave that initial impression. It was burned into people's minds. Okay, I have a top Level wide receiver one. I stole him in the draft. And then he returns to kind of what that was an unsustainable pace for what Larry did in the first five games. And then people get mad. You get burned by a guy who, you think he's one thing.

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe you went and bought him, maybe you paid the price.

[Jason Moore]

He begins as one thing and then he returns to the mean and people get super, super mad about it. But I mean, he was a PPR guy. That's. You have to think about Larry as a PPR guy. He was under five receptions, only three times. Only twice was he under seven, under seven targets, seven games and double digit targets. He was, he's, that's who he is now. He's a PPR guy with touchdown upside. But you just, you cannot, don't bank on, well, I'm going to get 10 touchdowns from Larry Fitzgerald. You're probably not.

[Mike Wright]

You're exactly right here. And the way that fantasy players and our listeners need to look at Larry Fitzgerald is what you just described. He is a PPR guy now.

[Jason Moore]

And that's the league in reception.

[Mike Wright]

He led 107 receptions. Led the league. This is his going out campaign as well, right? I mean, I don't think there's any. I mean, maybe he'll play longer, but I doubt it. I think when Carson leaves at the end of this year, Larry's going to leave and they're going to ride off into the sunset. So they're giving it every, give it all. You got everything you got, everything you got. But here's what happened last year that you might not realize. Mike, you talked about the touchdowns, right? Sometimes they come, sometimes they don't. They came in the beginning of the year. Here's the scarier part for fantasy though, when you're looking at Larry Fitzgerald. In his first three games inside the 10, he got six targets inside the 10. First three games. The next 13 games he also got six targets inside the 10. And that was as David Johnson kind of took over that inside the 10 role. And so I, my, my recommendation to people going forward is Larry is a great value in the sixth round, but he is what we were talking about kind of last episode as those plug and play try to get 10 points, not a high upside, not your one. Even if he finishes as kind of that number 12 wide receiver because he gets enough touchdowns, he is much more valuable in half point and full point ppr. If this is a standard league, I'm dropping them.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's talk about a wide receiver 10 years younger than Larry Fitzgerald, number 14 on their consensus wide receiver rankings. Allen Robinson, a Rob come. He came off the amazing 2015 campaign in which he was the number six fantasy wide receiver. Now you head into 2016 and he disappointed. He certainly disappointed for the first three quarters of the year. The offense, the Blake Bortles effect. We talked about the team Tebow effect. Well, the Blake Bortles effect, it hurt Alan Robinson, but Allen Robinson hurt himself as well. I think he was pressing. He ended up number 25. So he's outside that top two wide receiver range. Guys, what can we expect from Alan Robinson? Because his draft position says people are counting on at least a pretty decent bounce back campaign from Robinson. He's 24 years old. He's a great dynasty pickup still in people's minds. So what in the world is going to happen this year with Robinson and bortles?

[Jason Moore]

This is 14 is much higher than I have him. So the. I would assume that the two of you guys are bringing up his average.

[Mike Wright]

It's actually mostly Andy, because I've got him 20. I've got him 20 as the 20th wide receiver. You've got him 22nd and he's got him 10. So expecting that, that bounce back or here's.

[Jason Moore]

Here's the problem with Alan Robinson's bounce back for me story.

[Andy Holloway]

The narrative.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, the narrative. So you know, 2015, incredible monster year. 2016, he had identical targets.

[Mike Wright]

151.

[Jason Moore]

Literally the exact same amount of targets. 520 fewer yards, eight fewer touchdowns, and that's only on seven fewer receptions. So it was just. Things had changed. Blake Bortle's deep ball was not on. The numbers on that are actually quite staggering. So they could return. But 2014, we have a 10 game sample size of Allen Robinson. 11.4 yards per catch. Last year, 16 games, 12.1 yards per catch. 20, 15, 17 and a half yards per catch. Let me.

[Mike Wright]

That's.

[Jason Moore]

That's a Desean Jackson level of yards per reception.

[Mike Wright]

And that's not who Alan Robinson. It's.

[Jason Moore]

Well, he can be that, but I don't agree.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't agree with that at all.

[Mike Wright]

You don't, you don't think. You're saying that. You think that Allen Robinson is a desean Jackson mold?

[Andy Holloway]

No, no. You said that's not who he is at all. I thought you were referring to him being able to catch deep passes.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no. He certainly can. I'm saying that Desean Jackson averages 17 plus yards per reception because that's who he is. That's not who Allen Robinson is. Alan Robinson works shorter as well. And so I don't think over the course of the year, you're going to have another season where he averages 17 yards per reception. That's what I'm saying.

[Andy Holloway]

His last four games of the year, I mean, 17 yards of reception, 16.3, 16.4. To me, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Between 2015 and 2016, the number, the target numbers were there. That. That's a positive, too.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Like, that's a great baseline to come back. 14 touchdowns. Right. In 2015, is that the number he was tied with? It was 14 or 15.

[Jason Moore]

Correct.

[Andy Holloway]

And he was tied with Brandon Marshall for the league lead. We know the story with touchdowns. One of the arguments we just made about Mike Evans, that number dropped down to six. Okay, that's the. That's the story. The story is that efficiency number. The truth lies somewhere in the middle. I lean, I push the middle just a little bit up because he's 24 and he's still growing as a player. So for me, I think Allen Robinson's potential is there. You got a new head coach. They started to figure out the better way to use Allen Robinson and moving him around in the formation. At the end of the year, I lean that direction because I want a guy that has the upside of it.

[Jason Moore]

Do you think that the disappearance of Alan Hearns had anything to do with Alan Robinson's disappearance?

[Andy Holloway]

I think all the disappearances had to do with Blake Bortles and you Lean and Gus Bradley and.

[Mike Wright]

I do. I think it was Bortles.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, the ship was sinking for the year. And if you turned on a Jacksonville game every couple seconds, you'd pan to the sideline and you'd see Alan Robinson, like, slamming his helmet down or looking like, you know, he's about to have to do tax work. You know what I mean? He just looked disappointed and frustrated. And when that happens, you see people press.

[Mike Wright]

I also think the lack of any effective running game last season was, you know, it made a difference there and it made life harder. Yeah. But my point is that if they use that number four pick, you know, if they decide to go out and spin that capital on a piece in the running game. I like that for Alan Robinson is my point.

[Jason Moore]

Allen Robinson accounted for 43 and a half percent of the 10 zone targets.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. For Jacksonville, you look at those two years, and I would say if I'm projecting his point totals, I'm probably putting him between positive Progression, probably around 1100 yards, maybe. Maybe little over a thousand to 1100 yards and you could probably get him around that eight touchdown range. I mean, those targets are going to be there for him in the red zone. I think it'll get him up in that 10 to 12 range. That's my angle. You guys have him significantly lower. And I don't blame you. I don't blame you for that at all. You might. It doesn't seem like he's going to end up on any of your teams.

[Mike Wright]

No, he's still.

[Andy Holloway]

Based on his draft position.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly. He's still a wide receiver too, for me. But he's at the top of the third round and there's guys I like later.

[Andy Holloway]

Michael Crabtree comes in at number 15. Guys. Michael Crabtree, he's going to be great value again always.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, nobody, nobody respects Michael Krasny.

[Andy Holloway]

He's only 29 years old. He finished number 11 last year. So everybody was impressed with him in 2015.

[Mike Wright]

He.

[Andy Holloway]

All he did was improve upon that season last year. Over a thousand yards, eight touchdowns, 145 targets. And so you look at that compared to a guy like Allen Robinson. Right. He had two more touchdowns, he had more yards. Similar target totals. Tried and true. He actually is Derek Carr's kind of first red zone target where Amari Cooper seemed to disappear.

[Jason Moore]

And Amari Cooper is sixth on that list.

[Andy Holloway]

Sixteenth actually. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

But behind a couple o linemen.

[Andy Holloway]

Crabtree, his draft position right now, somewhere in the late fourth.

[Jason Moore]

Delightful. Yeah, that's delightful for me that the last two yards or two years. So with Derek Carr, 145 targets, 146 targets. So there was. The target share is the same. He was tied for fourth in red zone targets with 21. He was ninth in total receptions. He gets touchdowns. And Derek Carr is a maturing good quarterback in this league.

[Andy Holloway]

Got Marshawn just breaking up the. Pulling the linebackers up.

[Jason Moore]

You have ARP running up the backfield for them now are.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh my gosh.

[Jason Moore]

Derek Carr would have easily had over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns if he had. If he was able to play the final game before his leg injury. Michael Crabtree is. He's much like Doug Baldwin, except I think he's a bit more. In my opinion, he's a bit more consistent. I don't know if you have the 10 point numbers on Michael Crabtree, Jason.

[Mike Wright]

I sure do. Would you like to have.

[Jason Moore]

Hit me. Hit me.

[Mike Wright]

All right. So Michael Crabtree was excellent this past season. He had nine games over 10 fantasy points. And just for a frame of reference, because this whole thing started off of Ty4. I need the tops. You know, if you had eight, and this is standard scoring, if you had eight games over 10 points and eight games under 10 points, that actually put you basically in the top 10. So not many guys had, you know, eight and he had nine.

[Jason Moore]

So Crabtree's right up there. Very consistent. I love him. I love Crabtree. I think he's, I think he still has. He has juice left.

[Mike Wright]

I think it's all about the red zone targets. When you've got a guy who is, who has a rapport, has a good quarterback, has a good quarterback, but it's the guy he looks to in the red zone, it's the guy he trusts. And that's the thing about, you know.

[Andy Holloway]

Say Eric Decker, what Eric Decker had with Ryan Fitzpatrick, you just went down in the red zone and Decker was, I mean, he looks to Decker a.

[Jason Moore]

Lot and say, if you're concerned about Marshawn Latavius Murray had 12 rushing touchdowns last year and Michael Crabstreet was still able to do what he did.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, I know we need to move on to number 16 here because I think we're going to spend some time. Jason, do you have all of our rankings up individually? Can you tell us where we're at with Devonte Adams, our number 16 consensus wide receiver?

[Mike Wright]

I sure can because I have a.

[Andy Holloway]

I have a hunch that you guys are the ones pulling up this ranking.

[Mike Wright]

Your hunch is incorrect. Oh. Because Andy, I wanted to know where.

[Andy Holloway]

You guys ended up.

[Mike Wright]

You and I are tied. Oh. We both have him as our wide receiver. 21.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

And so it's. Mike has him at 13, which I do not blame him for. It's all about the touchdown.

[Andy Holloway]

This is the face I make when I draft Devonte Adams.

[Jason Moore]

That's fine. We were, we had a. We were having.

[Andy Holloway]

That's the sound of the face.

[Jason Moore]

An interesting discussion with the Rock, the fancy football writers. We're talking about Adams and some of these guys are, you know, well, Adams is a schmuck. I'm not necessarily going to argue against that. What I will say is I am.

[Andy Holloway]

Devonte Adams is.

[Jason Moore]

Aaron Rodgers is his quarterback. Aaron Rodgers can sustain two high level wide receivers.

[Mike Wright]

Three.

[Jason Moore]

He sometimes even three. But since 2011, that's when Jordan Nelson became the alpha for Green Bay.

[Mike Wright]

This stat that you're about to drop.

[Jason Moore]

When Jordan, When Jordan Nelson is the one, and this is including a year when he. When Jordy only played 12 games. So I can qualify it with that. When Jordan Nelson plays at least 12 games. Sure Aaron Rodgers averages 40 and a half touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Wow.

[Jason Moore]

Now you kind of forget about that because there's the year without Jordy where the Green Bay offense fell apart. And there was the year where Aaron Rodgers got hurt and missed basically 50% of the season. So those are, those are warts when you're looking back at the historical data of Aaron Rodgers. But last year, Jordy Nelson in a half point. Wide receiver 1. Devonte Adams the wide receiver 8. And you can look through the backlog of when Jordy was the alpha. So 2011, Jordy number three, Jennings wide receiver 17. And that year, Jennings only played 13 games. The next year, that's when Jordy only played 12. However, both Randall Cobb and James Jones. Wide receiver two, 2013 Rogers hurt. 2014 Jordy wide receiver three. Cobb wide receiver seven. He just, he has the history that he can elevate these guys who. Yes. You think he's a schmuck. Yes. Lots of people who play UC football think Devonte Adams is a schmuck.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you sure it's Adams as opposed to Cobb or as opposed. Yeah. Or as opposed to like, you know, Martell has been it, plus Cobb plus Adams. They kind of share Bennett and like, where did you have Adams? You said we both have at 31.

[Mike Wright]

We both have him at 21 in half point now in standard, you have him at 13.

[Andy Holloway]

Is that what you said?

[Jason Moore]

I think that's Jason.

[Mike Wright]

That's correct. He has him at 13 in standard leagues. To me, he goes way up. He is. He is just. I think he's my 13 in standard leagues because he's a touchdown machine.

[Andy Holloway]

And I think what you're 12 touchdowns last year, just under a thousand yards.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Look back at one of those great Jordy years where Jordy got seven touchdowns and Randall Cobb got eight. Eight touchdowns. He got one more than Jordy that year. Oh, and Also there were 14 touchdowns to James Jones that year. There are touchdowns to go to the wide receivers even in maybe not 1100 yards and 88 receptions. I don't see that for Devonte Adams.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you taking Adams in the third over Crabtree in the fourth?

[Mike Wright]

I would. No, I mean, if I knew I could get Crabtree in the fourth round later, I would, I would go there.

[Jason Moore]

The thing about Adams, if you've. For Green Bay receivers, and I guess you would. You would. You feel this when you own Green Bay running backs when they're inside the five and other teams. You think I have an automatic free touchdown here for my running back. Green Bay doesn't do that. They, they throw in the red zone more than anyone else.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he doesn't throw picks. That's the thing. Rogers doesn't throw red zone picks.

[Jason Moore]

For Martellus Bennett, that's inconsequential. I mean that it's been countless years since a tight end has done anything of relevance. Jared Cook was supposed to be their big acquisition last year. Now I know he wasn't healthy for the entire season. It's just Bennett to me will not siphon enough to stop Devonte Adams from having that eight plus touchdown year again.

[Andy Holloway]

Alshon Jeffrey comes in at number 17 following up Devonte Adams. Jeffrey starting a new, starting on a new roster, got a new life for Philadelphia. I don't know if it's going to be a magic carpet ride for Alshon Jeffrey in Philadelphia. The last two years have been just not good. I mean, play nine games that playing has been. Yeah, not playing is an issue.

[Mike Wright]

It's also been bad two years for Keenan Allen. Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Wait, are you making that point like you're.

[Mike Wright]

I am making the point that when guys don't. No, no, no. I'm agreeing with you. When guys don't play, that's really not helpful for fantasy football.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, it's. My point is, look, you got to go to 2014 before you're happy with what you got from Alison Jeffrey on the for draft position. I mean, it's not like he wasn't drafted high in 2015 and 2016. So you take two years of injury, mix in a little bit of a new roster, a second year quarterback, a one year deal, what do you end up with? What is the brew? What is the Alshon Jeffrey brew? Are you drinking it?

[Jason Moore]

Jason is not. I am and this is.

[Andy Holloway]

I think I'm. Where do I have Jeffrey compared to you two?

[Mike Wright]

Sure, I'll tell you. So Alshon Jeffrey right now in half point PPR formats, Andy, you have him 16.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Which I think is about where most people do. Mike, you have them at 10 and I'm going to upset some people. I have him at 30.

[Jason Moore]

So you are calling to me. You are calling. You're calling. Alison, Jeffrey will not play six.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no, no, no. That's actually not with him missing games. I have him down right now for 75 receptions, 950 yards and six touchdowns. That just ranks him a little lower when you've got a second year quarterback, first year rapport with him who is, you know, he didn't throw a ton of touchdowns rookie year and he didn't have good weapons. So I don't blame that. I think Carson Wentz could step forward. I see the narrative where Alshon Jeffrey gives Carson Wentz what he needed. Carson Wentz is a great future quarterback and he blows up. He is that 10. I don't think it's going to happen.

[Andy Holloway]

I made an ugly face when you said 30, but then I remembered DeAndre Hopkins and all the expectations for him and him ending up around that 30 range. So you're just kind of projecting a season where you're just not too happy with the week to week production. He can't find him enough there.

[Mike Wright]

ALSHON Jeffries had one season in his career where he had 10 touchdowns, you know, but his other careers, his other seasons, three touchdowns. Seven. Four, two. So if he finishes the year with five or six touchdowns, you're not surprised. You're not going to be happy and he's not going to be. I mean, maybe he's a low end wide receiver, too.

[Andy Holloway]

He did not find the big deal this offseason. So there's somebody else in the NFL that believes that about Alshon Jeffrey. Is it? Maybe. Jason's telling us it's time to pump the brakes on Alshon Jeffrey hype for one of these offseasons, for goodness sake.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think you just pump the brakes on the name. You know, sometimes we just get too much name recognition. And because he had a couple of seasons entering into the draft, the fantasy draft season, as like, you know, in top 10 consideration, we just see that value where he is a top 10 guy and he has the skill set to be. I think he's a good wide receiver, you know, but I think it's more gloss on the name than it is fantasy production. And you have other weapons there, too. I mean, you've still got Jordan Matthews, you've still got Zach Ertz. They brought in Torrey Smith for a reason. So, you know, I just can't see ALSHON Jeffrey getting 10 touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

I like the. What I like is the way that offense is trending. They got him weapons and the past attempts were so high for wins last.

[Jason Moore]

Year, fifth most in the league.

[Andy Holloway]

So I like the volume and I don't like Jordan Matthews.

[Jason Moore]

So when Allison Jeffries played 16 games, he's a wide receiver one. So if he plays 16 games, to me it's an impossibility that he's not.

[Andy Holloway]

At least just like Percy Harvin. When Percy Harvin gives you 16.

[Jason Moore]

And that's. That's fair.

[Andy Holloway]

That's.

[Jason Moore]

I'm saying that's, to me, the Only argument.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

That I, that I think can hold up against Alison is will he play 16 games?

[Andy Holloway]

Just like I said with lynch, it's more a matter of can you play for. For effectiveness. It's dependent on injury to you.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

For Jeffrey, as opposed to skill or talent or opportunity.

[Jason Moore]

And the thing with Alshon, current adp, top of the fourth round, I mean, that's. That's great for me. I will take a guy in the fourth round who I think has that top 10 upside.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's talk about Jarvis landry, our number 18 consensus wide receiver. A player that you see a divergence in draft position based on standard versus PPR leagues because he's not a touchdown monster. Last year he did have 94 catches for 1,136 yards and four touchdowns on 131 targets. I argue that that target number is a little low for. Oh, it came down Jarvis Landry.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it came down drastically. 20%.

[Andy Holloway]

First. First year with Adam Gase.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. And you know, number 13. And is that a standard league rank or a half point rank? Half point, Half point rank. He finished 13th in 2015, 14th and 2016.

[Mike Wright]

Just so everybody is aware, he finished 16th, which is pretty good in standard leagues.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Right. Last year was interesting for Jarvis Landry because you're expecting a PPR machine. 166 targets. Two years ago, it dropped down to 131. Six games for Jarvis under five receptions. And he had those a couple weeks where he essentially saved his entire fantasy production with just an inhumane.

[Andy Holloway]

Inhumane, huh? This is like a. The Geneva Convention has to get in here.

[Jason Moore]

If you saw what he did to the defense, that's what you would think because it was absolutely ridiculous. But second year with Adam Gase, it's. I'm not sure what to do with Jarvis Landry. Never been over five touchdowns in his career.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I will say this. So, you know, I look at Jarvis Landry as a guy that I really like. I like those consistent guys. And when I was going through, I realized he is a ppr. He's a PPR type of player, certainly. And this was in standard leagues. But in. In the standard, when I was comparing him to everyone else in standard, I was blown away that Jarvis Landry was pretty much one of the lowest players on consistency. He only had four games in standard leagues where he was over, where he got to 10 points. And that's just not going to get it done. And then if you break into, you know, year two, Adam Gase, I believe in that. But who is that going to benefit the most? Jarvis Landry. Who's already getting all these targets and already involved, or could it benefit more towards, you know, Parker or Stills? Parker or Stills.

[Andy Holloway]

Really? Thomas.

[Mike Wright]

Thomas, yeah. And then I look at his game logs and I see that in the first four games of the season, Jarvis Landry, in all four of those were double digit targets. He had four out of four. The rest of the year he only had two games where he got 10 targets. So, you know, I think they're going to spread the ball around a little bit more. I still like Landry. He's not. I'm not crushing him. I think he's a really good player. I think he's going to be good for fantasy. And usually he's undervalued in drafts.

[Jason Moore]

The first four games.

[Mike Wright]

The first four games.

[Jason Moore]

And when did JJ become the starter? That was right around week four or five, if I'm not mistaken.

[Mike Wright]

I'll look that up to be.

[Andy Holloway]

No, there's some concerns there. I mean, you had. It's ironic now because I actually want to bring Percy Harvin up, but when he was the only option, he was just peppered and peppered with targets in Minnesota. Look, that's what it was like for Landry. I mean, there was just nobody else to throw the ball to. That offense where Tannehill was at, the weapons and the options and the offensive coordination, it wasn't there.

[Jason Moore]

So very uncoordinated coordination.

[Mike Wright]

Actually, Mike, you might be onto something here because.

[Andy Holloway]

Might be onto something.

[Mike Wright]

You might be onto something.

[Jason Moore]

I got one.

[Mike Wright]

It was after those first four weeks. Week five is where a Jai came in with 25 carries and really took.

[Andy Holloway]

I give Mike a 0.5% chance of being right.

[Jason Moore]

Where's my. Right, right, right.

[Mike Wright]

Bottom. So, yeah, I mean, if Ajay is the guy and they found, you know, that. That type of an offense, that could have an effect.

[Andy Holloway]

Number 19, Keenan Allen. Mike, I got some bad news for you on KEENAN Allen finished 171st last year. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man.

[Andy Holloway]

Didn't help fantasy owners that rolled him out there every week. That is really disappointing bad decisions by those owners. He did only play a half of football for the entirety of the season.

[Mike Wright]

Half of the year?

[Andy Holloway]

No, no, no. A half of a game coming off of what? A kidney injury the year before comes out last year and tears his acl.

[Mike Wright]

But do you remember that year? Do you remember that year many years ago where he was really good?

[Andy Holloway]

I remember those games.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. I remember the games he's played. He's very good.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think we mean to disrespect Keenan Allen. I think we all think Kenan Allen's a really talented player. I think that I don't want to spend a third round pick on Keenan Allen and I won't, I won't do it.

[Jason Moore]

I completely understand it. But to me, I mean these are his injuries are not kind of those he's been worn down. These are just fluke injuries. A kidney laceration and then an ACL tear.

[Mike Wright]

This is.

[Andy Holloway]

Got to protect your kidneys, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Well, always. I always protect my kidneys. But when he plays, he's great. We said he only played half of football in the first game. In that half he was 6 for 63. He gets used by Philip Rivers. So you can shake your head, but when he plays, he gets used.

[Mike Wright]

Here's why I'm shaking my head. Because the year that he had half of a good year, why did he have that? Because he was a target machine. He was the center of that offense. But in that year they had no other weapons. I mean their leading receiver was Danny Woodhead. As far as targets, then Gates, Malcolm Floyd.

[Andy Holloway]

So who are the weapons now though?

[Mike Wright]

Now, now they've got Dontrell because of the Keenan Allen injury. Now they've actually established I think three legit other weapons in Dontra Inman, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin. Yeah, and then you add Keenan Allen in there, you've got Hooper, Hunter, Henry coming up. I just don't think Kenan Allen is going to be the center of this offense, which he needs to be in order to be what he was a few years ago when he had that.

[Jason Moore]

Opportunity his rookie year. He was not the center of the offense and he was, I mean he.

[Andy Holloway]

Was number six, 18.

[Jason Moore]

It was a much different year for him. I mean he was getting deeper shots and then it kind of switched and he would turn into this PPR guy.

[Andy Holloway]

But he won't end up on my team because of the draft position.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

If you mix that narrative with the injury narrative, I just, I just draft somebody else.

[Jason Moore]

I don't. I can't argue against that. It's making an argument for. Keenan Allen is very tough, but I just believe that he is extremely talented. I think he is a tremendous, tremendous route runner. And when he's on, assuming he's on the field, which is a tough assumption right now, then he will be the go to guy for Philip Rivers and.

[Mike Wright]

That'S what he would need to be in order to return on a third round value. He will need to be the go to guy on a, you know, 80% of games basis. And that's where I just, I'm not. I, I don't think that's gonna happen.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's close out.

[Jason Moore]

I like that we get to immediately flip the script right here.

[Andy Holloway]

I just say let's close out our wide receiver too.

[Jason Moore]

Because I love Keenan Allen, who doesn't play. Jason loves Sammy Watkins, who is the exact same thing.

[Andy Holloway]

Sammy Watkins, number 20, the last guy we'll talk about today, he was 89th last year.

[Jason Moore]

Jason.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

He didn't help people.

[Mike Wright]

Look, Andy, read what I wrote down a while ago on my paper as I was looking.

[Andy Holloway]

I hate Sammy Watkins. That's what it says.

[Mike Wright]

And here's why I hate him because I just can't quit him. I just, I have a.

[Jason Moore]

That's how I feel about Keenan Allen.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

But let me make the argument of. Because I feel like I am still being very consistent with my, with how I view players. The opportunities are. I mean, certainly it's a, a better passing offense in San Diego.

[Andy Holloway]

Sammy Watkins pleasantly disappoint you?

[Jason Moore]

Yes, unpleasantly disappointed.

[Mike Wright]

But the thing is, is Sammy Watkins is like he has to be the center of the weapons there. Who's the next best receiver? Charles Clay, probably LaShawn McCoy.

[Jason Moore]

Sadie McCoy.

[Mike Wright]

Right. But I mean, it's Sammy. Andre Holmes. And just like with Keenan Allen, you've seen that when Sammy Watkins plays, he is, he has extreme potential, great upside, but he actually goes deep, unlike Keenan Allen. And so I think when I'm taking a risk on a guy, I want the guy who is really, I think has the more probability of being the center of the offense, who's going to be used on those deep routes, who's going to be. I think he's got way better opportunity to score more touchdowns than Kenan Allen does. And so that's kind of why I have him there. I do have him too high. But this is. I started this show by saying I really don't like this group that we're talking about today because they all have giant question marks but they all cost a lot in the draft. I feel like there's fifth, sixth round wide receivers that I like as much as this and that's why tier based drafting is so important when you go.

[Andy Holloway]

Into your drafts and we have all those tiers in our draft kit over at ultimate draft kit.com Give me Sammy in the fourth over Keenan in the third. So that'd be my take on that situation.

[Jason Moore]

So Keenan Allen has never once in his career played a full 16 games. However, he still has three years where he has had more receptions than Sammy Watkins has ever had in a single season.

[Mike Wright]

Well, but Sammy has only played one year, 16 games as well. And that was his rookie year.

[Jason Moore]

Right, Right. But in that year, 65 receptions, but Keenan had 67 receptions in eight games. You can't look at years ago, 77 in 2014, 71 his rookie year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, you're not, I don't think you're going to make a lot of really strong statistical comparisons between Keenan, Allen and We have to go three.

[Jason Moore]

Years ago to argue against.

[Andy Holloway]

What did I say right before the show started. You're going like, there are no trends for players on the bench that are injured. You know, you just. The trends aren't there. Watkins comes in at 20 on our list. He certainly has upside. I mean, he's, he's a high pedigree player with red zone potential, with deep ball potential, big play potential. I like the draft value for him better than Allen. But it, you know, take your pick there, look for the upside. I'm going to run through our 21 through 30 really quick for you. These are the very initial rankings.

[Jason Moore]

Obviously when you say one of these names, people are going to get going, get heated.

[Andy Holloway]

Emmanuel Sanders, you've got Brandon Cooks.

[Jason Moore]

There he is.

[Andy Holloway]

Why are they going to get heated? Because he's not higher.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that's the name of. That's not that I thought.

[Andy Holloway]

Golden Tate, Terrell Pryor, Deandre Hopkins, Julian Edelman, Richard Matthews, Jamison Crowder, Dante Moncrief and Brandon Marshall. You can see all of our early rankings on the website, the fantasy footballers.com and like I said, look, wide receivers, they have a special focus. That position is very deep. Obviously a lot of leagues you're playing two or three wide receivers plus a flex potential. We wanted to give extra attention to that wide receiver position in the draft kit at ultimate draft kit.com that's why we brought in NFL.com's Matt Harmon to do reception perception analysis on the top 50 wide receivers and include that in the draft kit. So you're going to be able to dig deep and, you know, be equipped to make the decision between a Sammy Watkins and a Keenan Allen or a Demarys Thomas and a Michael Crabtree and what you want to do with those players based on the information we lay out for you. So we're really looking forward to that. Hopefully you enjoyed this show and you enjoy the wide receiver rankings Part one episode on Tuesday. If you haven't listened to that hop Onto itunes. Subscribe to the show. Listen to that first episode. Listen to the running back episodes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And if you're listening right now and you have not actually subscribed on itunes, you're doing it wrong. Yeah, you got to hit that subscribe button.

[Andy Holloway]

You can save a lifetime of button clicks by just subscribing one time.

[Mike Wright]

Save a puppy's life by hitting subscribe.

[Andy Holloway]

A family of puppies.

[Mike Wright]

What are you gonna do?

[Andy Holloway]

You're saying if you don't. Bad thing. Oh, what is he gonna do? Yeah, Jason was threatening.

[Mike Wright]

No, I love puppies, man. I love dogs.

[Andy Holloway]

Louis CK Just had, like, a comedy bit on those commercials that are like, save the animal commercials. He's like, wait, if I don't give you money, what are you gonna do to all the puppies? So, yeah, save a puppy's life. Subscribe to the show. I think that'll be our new motto from now on. Subscribe on itunes, wherever you're listening. You're not on board. You don't want to say puppies. That's cool. Hey, stay tuned for the show after the show as well. On YouTube, we're gonna talk about some funny, bad date stories. I think that's what's gonna happen here on. On YouTube. So thanks for listening. Check out fantasy Jocks if you need a trophy or a ring or a draft kit.

[Mike Wright]

Cody.

[Andy Holloway]

Draft board footballers.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we'll see you next time.

[Andy Holloway]

Goodbye.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Save the puppies.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.