Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Regress or Impress Candidates for 2017

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary Episode: Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Regress or Impress Candidates for 2017
Release Date: May 16, 2017
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

---

Introduction

The episode kicks off with an energetic introduction highlighting the creation of the Ultimate Draft Kit, praised by all three hosts. Mike Wright enthusiastically promotes the kit, quoting Jason Moore: “when I saw all the content in the ultimate draft kit, I felt my knees and wept. I wept like a baby” (00:08).

Quick Question Segment

Topic: Rookie Tight Ends' Fantasy Impact

Jason Moore poses a trivia question about rookie tight ends, sparking a lively debate about the potential of O.J. Howard, David Njoku, and Evan Ingram for the 2017 season.

• Trivia Highlights:
  • Question 1: Number of rookie tight ends with 50+ receptions in the past decade.
    • Answer: Three (03:28)
  • Question 2: Rookie tight ends with over 600 receiving yards.
    • Answer: One (04:15)
  • Question 3: Rookie tight ends scoring five or more touchdowns.
    • Answer: Seven (04:49)

Discussion Insights:

• Evan Ingram's Role: Mike Wright discusses Ingram's potential transition from a "tweener" to a regular tight end, citing concerns about his usage and blocking responsibilities (05:42).
• Fantasy Projections: Andy Holloway expresses skepticism about any of the three tight ends achieving significant fantasy stats this year, while Jason Moore remains optimistic about all three surpassing five touchdowns (06:37).

Regress or Impress Segment

The core of the episode analyzes eight players who had standout performances in the previous season, evaluating whether they will regress or continue to impress in 2017.

A. Quarterbacks

Candidates: Kirk Cousins vs. Dak Prescott

• Kirk Cousins:

  • Analysis: Mike Wright examines Cousins' historical performance after throwing over 4,900 yards, noting that regression in yardage is common but increased touchdowns could offset this (17:10).
  • Consensus: Jason Moore and Mike Wright lean towards Cousins impressing him by maintaining or slightly improving his touchdown numbers, while Andy Holloway anticipates a slight regression due to team changes (20:15).
  • Notable Quote: "I do think he's going to regret this year. There's just too many changing parts." — Andy Holloway (20:51)

• Dak Prescott:

  • Analysis: Jason Moore doubts Prescott can replicate his efficient touchdown-to-interception ratio, projecting a fall to 13th in standard leagues (22:42).
  • Consensus: Mixed views with a general expectation of regression due to defensive changes and questions about the offensive line's stability.
  • Notable Quote: "I have him at 13 range, just outside the top 10. So he's a regression, but not to a desperate point of view." — Jason Moore (22:42)

B. Running Backs

Candidates: Isaiah Crowell vs. Tevin Coleman

• Isaiah Crowell:

  • Analysis: Andy Holloway acknowledges Crowell's efficiency issues despite team improvements, questioning his workload and consistency (27:55).
  • Consensus: Generally, the hosts anticipate a regression due to Crowell's limited carries and reliance on big plays.
  • Notable Quote: "I agree with Jason that the offseason for the Cleveland Browns has been spectacular for Isaiah Crowell." — Mike Wright (31:09)

• Tevin Coleman:

  • Analysis: Jason Moore finds Coleman uncomfortable as a second running back, while Mike Wright cites concerns over his workload and target distribution (33:28).
  • Consensus: Mike Wright opts for regression, suggesting Coleman may not replicate his previous year's high efficiency.
  • Notable Quote: "I'm going regress." — Mike Wright (35:32)

C. Wide Receivers

Candidates: Michael Thomas vs. Devonte Adams

• Michael Thomas:

  • Analysis: Andy Holloway is confident Thomas will continue to impress, drawing parallels to Marquise Colston's sophomore year success (39:19).
  • Consensus: Strong consensus among hosts that Thomas will either maintain or slightly improve his performance.
  • Notable Quote: "I think that Michael Thomas is as safe as anyone in fantasy football can be." — Andy Holloway (39:27)

• Devonte Adams:

  • Analysis: Jason Moore anticipates regression, expecting Adams to have fewer receptions but maintained touchdown output (43:20).
  • Consensus: Mixed views with Mike Wright leaning towards impression due to Adams' role and Andy Holloway acknowledging potential regression.
  • Notable Quote: "I was going to say regress, but I'm glad you have these numbers. They're unbelievable." — Andy Holloway (35:09)

D. Tight Ends

Candidates: Kyle Rudolph vs. Zach Ertz

• Kyle Rudolph:

  • Analysis: Mike Wright praises Rudolph's sustainable production despite fluctuating draft positions, while Jason Moore views Rudolph as a regression candidate due to changes in the Minnesota Vikings' offense (47:27, 51:13).
  • Consensus: Divided opinions with Andy Holloway supporting Rudolph's continued impressing and Jason Moore predicting regression.
  • Notable Quote: "He's going to finish as a top six." — Andy Holloway (52:22)

• Zach Ertz:

  • Analysis: Jason Moore expects Ertz to impress by maintaining or slightly improving his performance, while Mike Wright cites potential target competition and touchdown issues (54:19).
  • Consensus: Generally leaning towards regression due to increased competition for targets.
  • Notable Quote: "He just doesn't score touchdowns. That has been the huge problem." — Jason Moore (54:21)

News and Notes

The hosts briefly discuss Josh Gordon's petition for reinstatement, noting he's unlikely to return this season due to ongoing issues with his agent and the NFL's stance on his situation (08:35 – 09:57).

Mailbag: Listener Questions

Question 1: Commissioner's Dilemma on Kickers
Listener Jimbo seeks advice on balancing the league's mixed opinions on kickers by possibly adjusting scoring rules.

• Hosts' Advice:
  • Jason Moore: Suggests nerfing rather than removing kickers, proposing a flat three points for field goals regardless of distance (58:19).
  • Andy Holloway: Agrees, recommending three points per field goal and one point per extra point without penalties (58:43).

Question 2: Drafting Alshon Jeffrey vs. Other Wide Receivers
The listener questions why to draft Alshon Jeffrey with a high pick when other receivers like Doug Baldwin and Keenan Allen are available.

• Hosts' Response:
  • Jason Moore: Emphasizes Jeffrey's potential upside but acknowledges uncertainty with Carson Wentz's passing touchdowns and other offensive dynamics (60:14).
  • Andy Holloway: Recommends opting for Doug Baldwin over Jeffrey due to more consistent performance (61:55).
  • Mike Wright: Advises against drafting Jeffrey in the third round, favoring more reliable options like Larry Fitzgerald (62:06).

Question 3: Kelvin Benjamin's Bounce-Back Potential
A listener trades away Michael Thomas for Kelvin Benjamin and wonders if Benjamin can rebound.

• Hosts' Advice:
  • Andy Holloway: Sees potential upside if Benjamin resurges but rates him as a high-variance pick (64:35).
  • Jason Moore: Expresses skepticism about Benjamin's consistency and motivation (63:26).
  • Mike Wright: Highlights challenges Benjamin faces with the offense and quarterback changes (65:23).

Conclusion

The episode wraps up with a promotion for the Ultimate Draft Kit, encouraging listeners to take advantage of pre-order pricing. The hosts remind listeners to visit their website and follow them on Twitter for more fantasy football insights.

Notable Closing Quote:
Mike Wright: "Hope you're ready for trophies." (66:03)

---

Highlights

• Tight End Trivia: Understanding the rarity of rookie tight ends achieving significant fantasy stats.
• Regress or Impress Analysis: In-depth evaluations of key players across positions, balancing past performance with upcoming season variables.
• Listener Engagement: Practical solutions for common fantasy league dilemmas, emphasizing community interaction.

Key Takeaways

• Player Performance Prediction: The importance of analyzing both statistical history and team dynamics to forecast a player's fantasy impact.
• Draft Strategy: Balancing high-upside picks with reliable performers to optimize team strength.
• League Customization: Tailoring league rules (e.g., kicker scoring) to fit the preferences of league members for enhanced enjoyment.

---

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the Fantasy Footballers' 2017 episode on player projections, offering valuable guidance for both new and seasoned fantasy football enthusiasts.

Transcript

[Mike Wright]

In a world where the line between success and failure can be measured in fractions of a point three gentlemen, nay heroes have put aside their differences to combine forces and produce the greatest fantasy football draft kit of all time. Many said that it couldn't be done. Many said it shouldn't be done. But the desire to be the best, the passion to rise above the rest, has pointed these podcasters on a one way path to fulfill their destiny this summer. From the creative minds behind the Fantasy Footballers comes a blockbuster multimedia extravaganza the likes of which has never been seen. Video profiles, stat projections, tier breakdowns, printable cheat sheets, rookie rankings, sleepers, busts, and so much more. Mike Wright calls it the one draft tool you can't miss. Andrew Holloway says it's changed his life. And Jason Moore said, when I saw all the content in the ultimate draft kit, I fel my knees and wept. I wept like a baby. Don't miss this opportunity. Go to www.ultimatedraftkit.com today and secure your copy today.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from the fantasyjocks.com studios with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Mo and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

We're back. It's Tuesday and we are back in business. How you guys doing today?

[Mike Wright]

I'm doing excellent. The the excellent thing about that intro is there is nothing self indulgent happening during this.

[Jason Moore]

No, no, no, no.

[Mike Wright]

The greatest thing that has ever happened extravaganza.

[Jason Moore]

If you call a beautiful painting beautiful, it's still being modest if it's actually beautiful. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Andy, Mike and Jason back again. Great episode coming your way. Quick question of the day guys. We're jumping right into it.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's do it.

[Jason Moore]

I don't like it. For what it's worth, I don't like the quick question because we have had some various tight end related debate in the office and here's the question. People want to know if O.J. howard and David and Joku and Evan Ingram can make a real fantasy impact this season. Are they that elite talent wise or are they being overhyped because of, you know, how many went in the first round? So here's, here's some rookie tight end trivia guys and we'll talk about this.

[Mike Wright]

So do we want to do the trivia or answer that question first?

[Jason Moore]

Well, we want to do the trivia and then we'll answer the question.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Part one. In the past 10 seasons, how many rookie tight ends have had 50 plus receptions?

[Mike Wright]

I'm pretty sure I know it.

[Jason Moore]

Mike, you Might. Jason probably does a lot of tight.

[Mike Wright]

End related research happening as we're getting ready for the draft kit. It's very small.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's either two or three.

[Mike Wright]

I will go with three.

[Andy Holloway]

Then. I shall go with two.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, three it is. Three rookie tight ends in the last 10 years have had more than shocking baby right. Receptions. I don't have the list.

[Andy Holloway]

Shocky was amazing.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Part two. The fact though that Shocky comes to mind in the discussion tells you how not recent that is. In the past 10 seasons, how many rookie tight ends have had over 600 receiving yards?

[Mike Wright]

I will go with Jason's last answer. 2.

[Andy Holloway]

I shall go 3.

[Jason Moore]

The answer is 1.

[Mike Wright]

You missed the hint, Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I'm not, I'm not looking at.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, the answer is one. There have been one rookie. There's one rookie tight end in the last 10 years with over 600 receiving yards. Just one. In the past 10. In the past 10 seasons, how many rookie tight ends have scored five touchdowns or more? All right, so in the past 10 years, how many rookie tight ends have scoring five or more? We know Hunter Henry did it last.

[Mike Wright]

Year and Gronk, I'm 100% positive was over that.

[Andy Holloway]

There have been more people. I think like Carlson might have been over there.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think Carlson was in that reception group.

[Jason Moore]

Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. It is seven.

[Andy Holloway]

There we go.

[Jason Moore]

Seven. Rookie tight end. Now again, what do you believe? What do you believe about these three players, their three landing spots? And we've all projected our tight ends. We've all talked about these guys because they're exciting. These are exciting players. Ingram is that Aaron Hernandez threat, Jordan Reed.

[Mike Wright]

And what was exciting about Ingram was, hey, maybe the Giants coaching staff, maybe Ben McAdoo's got something up his sleeve and he says, I'm going to, I'm going to take this guy. He's a tweener. He's too big for to be a wide receiver, too small to be a tight end. Now I'm just going to use him as a receiver, as a special player. But no, all the news from the New York Giants camp says, well, no, no, he's absolutely a regular tight end and we will use him appropriately and teach him how to play regular tight end.

[Andy Holloway]

You should have drafted David and Joku, who.

[Mike Wright]

And I'm completely on board with that. I love Evan Ingram. I liked him more than Jason. But after this news came out, it, it has to be shaky here that maybe they are not going to use his strengths the way that they should.

[Jason Moore]

So let me Ask you this, are any of these tight ends going to have 50 or more receptions, 600 or more yards or five or more touchdowns?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that's a good way to put it. I can tell you right now from my. We have statted all of these rookies out. I do not have a single one with over any of those numbers. Okay, I do and I, and you know, I do. I really, really like these guys, especially in Joku and Howard. And I would throw in Everett as well. As far as long term, great, really important fantasy players, I believe they will be that. But I don't see any of these guys making an immediate fantasy impact this year.

[Mike Wright]

I have Ingram statted above that line. I have him at 60 for 625, but that was also done before all this nonsense of, well, we're going to teach him how to block and so he may have to come down. And he was the highest of the, of the rookie crop for me.

[Jason Moore]

I believe that all three will surpass the five or more touchdown mark.

[Mike Wright]

Now you didn't tell me that I needed to put up a flame resistance shield in the middle of this table.

[Andy Holloway]

Now Mike doesn't have a face.

[Mike Wright]

My eyebrows are gone.

[Jason Moore]

I believe all three can score five or more touchdowns this year and will score five or more touchdowns. I believe David and Joku will be the only of the three that will surpass both 50 receptions and 600 yards. But I believe he will have the triple crown of rookie tight ends in the vein of Jeremy Shockey.

[Mike Wright]

I thought you were gonna go a secretariat.

[Jason Moore]

We could have gone a secretariat.

[Mike Wright]

The once in a lifetime.

[Jason Moore]

He's a thoroughbred running down the field. All right, follow us on Twitter at theffballers. Today's show's great. I'm telling you, this is an awesome episode. Regress or impress, that's what we're doing today. We're going to bring up eight different players that had banner years last year and talk about whether they're going to regress or continue to impress in 2017. I think this is a. These are questions that a lot of fantasy owners have about these specific players because in some cases does it justify their draft value? Because their draft value moved up after a great year. In other cases, maybe people don't buy in. And are you going to get that kind of production from a late round value as well? So that's what we're going to do today. Like I said the website. I hadn't said that. I said Twitter was at the ffballers. The website is thefantasyfootballers.com check out all the content on there, as well as the ultimate draft kit. And unless you guys have anything else, I want to get into the news.

[Mike Wright]

Let's do it.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, man.

[Jason Moore]

Josh Gordon's petition.

[Mike Wright]

This is late news because this happened after the last Thursday's podcast.

[Jason Moore]

But not going to be reinstated.

[Mike Wright]

Well, he can ever.

[Andy Holloway]

At this time.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, what was it? He was allowed to reapply in August or so? Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

But I'm going to go.

[Mike Wright]

I'm cool with Jason's statement.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, I love that he can reapply again. Yeah. I mean, he's been trying to do this for years now. And his. Here's what bothers me even more. I mean, at this point, everything is frustrating, but his agent has terminated the relationship. So your agent. And if I'm wrong about this foot clan and you're listening, I apologize. And I got the name wrong. I'm almost positive the agent is who he was living with and who was vouching for him about a month ago when reinstatement discussions were taking place. Now that agent has abandoned him, so to speak, or gotten out while he could, terminated the relationship. And he was denied. So something happened in that time span.

[Mike Wright]

Not only was he denied, we are in the season where Darrell Washington and Martavis Bryant were both reinstated.

[Andy Holloway]

There's.

[Mike Wright]

There's, there's something we don't know about, and it is not good.

[Andy Holloway]

It is good news, though, for the current Cleveland Browns wide receivers.

[Jason Moore]

You can have like, David and Joku.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure. If you, if you. And I love David and Joku. I hope you're right on that. But I think Corey Coleman, I've got him statted surprisingly high. Like, when I went through and looked at the Browns, I was, I was like, whoa, Corey Coleman's a. You know, he's. I think he might be a back end wide receiver, too. For me, it was scary to be.

[Mike Wright]

Wow.

[Jason Moore]

Here. Here's another episode coming up. By the way. We're gonna defend ourselves because you said you had a surprisingly high projection for Corey Coleman. I think we've surprised one another with several projections. And what do we call that episode? Explain yourself, Explain Yourself. So we'll bring that episode.

[Mike Wright]

It's very similar to Treat yourself this time. You have to explain yourself.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, well, you know, we do it in the office already. Hot debates going on all the time. We've got all these projections built out so far for the initial release of the ultimate draft kit June 1st. So we're gonna do an explain yourself episode very soon. Look, this next bit I'm going to. I'm not reading much into this. Let's just put it this way. Reports that Deontay Foreman showed up out of shape. Okay, here's the reports.

[Mike Wright]

All rookies are out of shape.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. That's the truth, is that they've been.

[Mike Wright]

Getting ready for interviewing to get into an NFL team. They're not focused. Right. Or they haven't been the last couple months.

[Jason Moore]

They have not been focused flying around.

[Andy Holloway]

The country, especially for those rookies. Right. Some rookies, you know, you take McCaffrey, McCaffrey didn't, didn't go visit teams. He's like, hey, you come to my pro day and he's working on his craft. But you got Mixon, who you know, and Foreman. Those guys where you're not sure, are they going to be day two prospects or are they going to possibly go undrafted? They got to go to teams and visit and yeah, I mean, and both of those guys, unsurprisingly, they're saying, hey, you're out of shape.

[Jason Moore]

I wanted to take the time now to throw out the broad, sweeping disclaimer for every desperate update that comes across the news wire right now because there are a lot of reports and they begin like this. They say, ESPN reporter blank. Projects blank. And you have to realize that that's their job. I'm not discounting or saying you shouldn't be reporting something, but there was a report today that Samaj P. Ryan would likely be the starter in Washington. Coming from a beat writer, not coming from the head coach. And so it doesn't mean you can't like take some of that.

[Mike Wright]

See, I look into these reports that are happening right now and I do draw from them with the beat report. It's the beat reporters are as plugged in as we can possibly get right now.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. But the disc writer, the disclaimer is, is, do you have a mountain of evidence or do you have a off the cuff statement? Because a couple, you know, you get these same comments from people like the office of coordinators. You have different spin. And all I'm saying is that if you don't have a lot of sources pointing towards. Look, is Samajp Ryan the starter, Mike?

[Mike Wright]

I think it will be. Yeah, I think it will be.

[Jason Moore]

But is he.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that.

[Mike Wright]

We don't know that yet.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, we don't have any other than this guy, one person saying he thinks it'll be the case. There's no real reason to believe it other than, hey, I think he's going to be Rob Kelly, which is fine. An opinion is what we go on. I'm just saying it's not factual. It's not news. He's not. He doesn't have a number one spot.

[Mike Wright]

That's fair. But you also need to take into account these beat writers are. They're talking with coaches, they're talking with managers that maybe they're getting information that they are not allowed to report on.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, you take everything as a piece of the puzzle, but I agree with Andy that these are very small pieces. I'm gonna. I'm gonna listen and remember that, you know, this beat writer said that. But then that's. I don't give it a lot of weight because, you know, also I believe out today, Leonard Fournette is going to have to compete for that starting job.

[Mike Wright]

Because that's Tom Coughlin's team. Of course he is. But I'm saying, like, if I'm a beat reporter for Washington and I have a conversation with Gruden, he says this is off the record. I think that pre Ryan is going to win the job. I would say fine, and then I would put out my rumor column that says, I have a pretty good feeling that P. Ryan is going to get the starting season.

[Andy Holloway]

I agree with you. But this specific time, I believe there were a lot of ESPN writers that basically had to put out their projections for starting. This is more like a. This wasn't. Oh, I got news and I'm doing it. This is like, hey, everybody, it's Thursday. We need your. We need your depth charts.

[Mike Wright]

And then speaking of news to go. We're talking about these rookies showing up out of shape. Eddie Lacy, he made his first weight threshold.253. He made it. So he's on.

[Jason Moore]

He's on his way by a $55,000 bonus for being two pounds under that weight limit.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, man. That's what everyone needs.

[Andy Holloway]

That's exactly what I need. I've been trying to lose weight. Will someone out there.

[Jason Moore]

55 grand.

[Andy Holloway]

55,000. Give me a reasonable goal, I will come in under.

[Jason Moore]

All it takes. 55,000.

[Andy Holloway]

That's it?

[Jason Moore]

That's it. Any other news you guys want to get into?

[Mike Wright]

This is happening because of course it is. At J. Grizz ffl. He's sweeping the nation. I gotta give a shout out to the writers. They're doing a bear mock right now.

[Jason Moore]

What is a bear mock?

[Mike Wright]

They're drafting the best bears by breed. Well, I believe the rules are.

[Jason Moore]

Or is there, like, The Berenstain Bears in there.

[Mike Wright]

It's up to interpretation. If someone has not drafted the Berenstain Bears yet, then there's a steal waiting.

[Jason Moore]

Are you allowed to do like Bear Grylls been drafted?

[Andy Holloway]

They've both been picked.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Yes, I knew Bear Grylls, but hashtag Bear Mock if you want to follow around with that buffoonery.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

All right, well, let's get to the main event here. Regressor impress. And of course, Mike was sitting around with his guitar and set up a little intro for this segment. I told you that it's a disrupting ensemble of genres just colliding. I just. I can't even find myself.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, you're gonna regress, you're gonna impress. Those are oppositesies. You know, the music's gotta. The music's gotta reflect that.

[Jason Moore]

Let's start at the quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Am I. Am I the only person who, when you hear the word impress, one of the first thoughts that Shania Twain is Shania Twain?

[Andy Holloway]

Not me, sir.

[Mike Wright]

That's. My brain goes right there.

[Jason Moore]

For a lot of people for a lot of years, one of their first thoughts was Shania Twain.

[Mike Wright]

This is very, very fair.

[Jason Moore]

Quarterbacks regress or impress at the quarterback position. Here's the two names I want to bring up. Kirk Cousins and Dakota Prescott. Last season, 2016, these guys were number five and number six in the fantasy rankings. So do we believe that Kirk Cousins or and Dak Prescott will regress from that finish or continue to impress with top six fantasy numbers?

[Mike Wright]

So I did a historical look here for Kirk Cousins because my gut says he will likely have a some regression, but I'm not going to bury him. And I looked up, you know, what are the yard, the yardage of historical quarterbacks lately. So since 2000, 15 times a quarterback has thrown 4900 yards or more. And that's where Cousins was last year. Eight times. Coming off of that season, the quarterback played 16 games. So those were the only people. What I looked at is that. Am I making sense?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Andy's giving me the phone.

[Jason Moore]

No, no, I'm with you.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. So only eight times after these 15 quarterbacks through for 4,900 yards, they played a full season. And what was also interesting in that.

[Jason Moore]

Does that mean he is a 50, 50 shot of getting hurt?

[Mike Wright]

No. Well, somewhere 15 games, just saying. So I didn't have a full season of data to go off of. What was in more interesting to me off of this, six of those eight times, quarterbacks had 39 plus touchdowns. So the touchdown number that Kirk had, 25 last year, did not match the historical output that these quarterbacks were putting out. I thought that was just interesting. So the regression that people had there was really only three times. There was a monster drop in yardage. Eli dropped a thousand yards. Peyton dropped about 700 yards. And then Tom Brady had a season where he dropped 400. Other than that, it was either 300 yards or less. So not a huge drop. So to me, it's more of a. Are you expecting a complete regression of the yardage or can you expect a positive regression of his touchdowns, which did not match what these other quarterbacks have been doing?

[Jason Moore]

When you look at Kirk Cousins, you give the lay of the land and you lost Pierre Garcon and you lost to Sean Jackson. He still has his number one target in Jordan Reed. And I look at that touchdown number and I see that's a fairly low touchdown number. That is something he can easily repeat. I don't know if I'll repeat four touchdowns on the ground. But how similar is his situation to what Andy Dalton went through last year where he stole his number one target, Naj Green, but you lost Mohammed Sanu and you lost Marvin Jones and you lost. Well, he lost more than that. He lost Tyler Ifer eventually throughout the year. He lost the backfield mate. But which side do you lean on? I tend to believe that Kirk Cousins is a top 10 fantasy quarterback, as do I, for the upcoming year. But you can't really project in a. Anything higher than what he did last year. Probably lower.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm not raising the yards up, but I think it's. At the end of the day, it's just, it's a wash because let's say he loses 300 yards, but then he gets his touchdowns up to 29 or 30, which I personally, I think that's capable. I know he lost the weapons, but.

[Jason Moore]

He got Terrell Pryor.

[Mike Wright]

Terrell Pryor and I stocks. I still have a lot of faith in Josh Dobson, Jameson Crowder, so I think that he can. I think that he can impress the final verdict.

[Jason Moore]

You got impressed, I got impressed. And I, I'm going to go impress as well. Jason, you can finish this up.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I do have him regressing. I still like him as a player, but there's too many things that are changing here to say that he can replicate those, you know, those near 5,000 yards. I mean, not only. You look at this last year and you go, wow, he had a real, you know, as you called it a banner year. Well, yeah, you Want to know what helped him with that banner year? It's the fact that he had his entire system, his entire team, his offensive coordinator, just complete cohesion going from 2014 or 15 to 2016 that really helps people. Look at. Look at Matt Ryan, what that did for him.

[Mike Wright]

Fair for what?

[Andy Holloway]

Standing there. And now you have Sean McVay, the guy who really transformed Kirk Cousin. Then you've got him leaving. You've got his number one and number two targets from the wide receiver position leaving. There's just a lot of change. And, you know, so for me, and with Samaj P. Ryan coming in, hopefully their running game is better. I doubt you get another, you know, four or five touchdowns on the ground from Captain Kirk. I like him. He's my quarterback 15. But I do think he's going to regret this year. There's just too many changing parts.

[Jason Moore]

Would you. What do you think the odds are that he repeats his 2015 year where he finished number 10? In that season, he only had 4,100 yards, but he did have 29 touchdowns. He's kept his interceptions low back to back years and had five rushing touchdowns. So do you think 10 is a reasonable range for Cousins?

[Andy Holloway]

If Cousins finishes as the quarterback 10, I will not be surprised at all. I think that is very reasonable, but I still don't project that because like you said, he had 29 passing touchdowns to go with five rushing touchdowns. I don't see that happening.

[Jason Moore]

I have him at 11 in 6.9 in standard leagues. Let's talk about Dak Prescott. Dak Prescott, somebody that I think is very easy to throw. Personally, for me, it's very easy to put him in a regression category. I have seen years of that kind of efficiency that seem very hard to Repeat. Specifically, what? 23 touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. I find it hard to believe that Dak Prescott as a young quarterback in the NFL will be able to sustain efficiency numbers that would put him in that top six category. So for me, I don't buy into the fact that Dak Prescott can get there. I think I have him at 13 range, just outside the top 10. So he's a regression, but not to a desperate point of view.

[Mike Wright]

The what I'm looking at for Dak, or I guess I'll say my biggest questions for him are, what's. What's going on with the defense? All right. Because we know they lost a ton of pieces in the secondary. And I guess that's the biggest question for me, because the offensive line, I take it back, that's another question. They've lost a couple of big pieces.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, something changed.

[Mike Wright]

The questions just keep coming up. But can that offensive line keep it together? Because where his system, what he's asked to do, I think he can repeat those efficient numbers where you give a quarterback a ton of time. Even the worst quarterback is going to be able to find an open receiver. The running game keeps the defense honest on. You can't just completely key in on Dak. But last year so many positive game scripts for the Cowboys and you saw that come out in Ezekiel's numbers and that that meant that there wasn't a lot on Dax shoulders.

[Jason Moore]

Weren't they 13 and 3 last year?

[Mike Wright]

That sounds about right.

[Jason Moore]

I don't have that the record Brooks? Yeah, I think so. 13 and 3.

[Mike Wright]

But to me a bigger question then also for Dak is the rushing touchdowns. He had six touchdowns and I talked about on a previous show that I feel like those numbers can continue. And I took a look at rookies and you know, they're rushing touchdowns. What has happened for them? And you had Cam, which he's really an outlier situation.

[Andy Holloway]

82 rushing touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

His rookie from 14 to nine. So it's, it's hard to use him. Jameis had six, he went down to one. But then Andrew Luck went from five to four. And I see Dax rushing touchdowns more in line with Andrew Luck where it's, it's not like Cam where they're designing everything for him, but they frequently draw up. The second read is for Dak to just run it in and he has that tool set.

[Andy Holloway]

He has that tool set. I agree.

[Jason Moore]

Jason has him the highest of all of us.

[Andy Holloway]

I have him impressing again next year. He's my quarterback seven, which is a little bit hot to throw that out there for a second year quarterback. And you wonder is there a sophomore slump? You just brought up some of the better rushing touchdown rookie quarterbacks in recent memory. Well over the last decade, if you, if you look at other people who have fared as well in their rookie year as Dak. So Dak just, just so you know, since 2006 he had the third best rookie fantasy season for a quarterback. And if you look at the top five around him, so six really, because he's in the middle of it, but we don't know how he's going to fare yet. You've basically got a list of guys that just continue to impress. You got Cam Newton, you've got Robert Griffin who got injured that second year but was pacing well that year. You have Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson, those guys all came out their second year and were absolutely fine barring that injury. And so I look at Dak, he gets DEZ Bryant for a full year now and we saw that as the year went on, he figured out how to use Des a little bit better. So I think a full.

[Jason Moore]

Did you wink when you said for a full year?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, no. I love Des. Des is playing 16 games. Des is playing 16 games this year.

[Jason Moore]

Let's put it on the board.

[Mike Wright]

I tend to agree. I like Des. But then. So these quarterbacks too, they're passing touchdowns. Mariota went up seven touchdowns. Carr went up 11. Andy Dalton went up seven touchdowns. Cam came down two touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I know you generally look.

[Mike Wright]

Jameis Winston went up six touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

You generally see more latitude given to a quarterback coming into the second year. You're going to see with Carson winces here. So that's a strong argument in favor. I think the efficiency goes out the window. But if it doesn't, you have. You have an elite fantasy quarterback that's done it two times in a row.

[Mike Wright]

I think it's up to the defense, if the defense can hold them in.

[Jason Moore]

So you think he needs positive game script?

[Mike Wright]

Yes, I do.

[Jason Moore]

For he's not.

[Mike Wright]

I think that he's good. But I also feel.

[Jason Moore]

As opposed to Bortles, who did it from behind all the time.

[Mike Wright]

We didn't. We haven't seen Dak fully tested under pressure. Right? We haven't seen that yet.

[Andy Holloway]

It's hard to get pressure through that line.

[Jason Moore]

Jonathan Cooper's on his way. He'll help out. He'll help out. Isaiah Crowell and Tevin Coleman are the two running back candidates for regress or impress. That's Isaiah Crowell and Tevin Tevin Coleman. No, they weren't just selected because we have nicknames for them. Although that would be reason enough. Look, Isaiah Cruell. I think we're all on the same page with Isaiah Cruel. He was the 14th best running back last year in fantasy and that was a jump of, I believe, 16 spots from the year before. He's played 16 games all three of his seasons. You love seeing that from the running back position. That being said, he's never had over 200 carries. Last year, 198 for 952 7. But he had 40 receptions for 319. Regress or impress, Isaiah Crowell.

[Mike Wright]

I actually. Oh, you want to jump in here?

[Jason Moore]

Jason, why don't you start us off?

[Andy Holloway]

Sure, I'll start. I'll start us off. If I Will say this Isaiah Crowell, what he did last year. There are many reasons to buy into a regression coming, notably because he was not efficient. You look at his numbers and his yards per carry, you're like, oh, what are you talking about? He was very good, but so many of his yards came on so few carries. And we're not talking about like we, we mentioned Jay Ajayi and Devonta Freeman, who had those years where several games were just incredible and you know, three of their games made up so much of their fantasy points. I'm not talking about games, I'm talking about specific runs. Which reminds me more of like Latavius Murray's rookie year where he had two or three of those just breakaway runs and he looked much more efficient than he actually is. However, I think he's going to continue to impress because everything around him worked out perfect. I mean, his offensive line went from a bad one to one of the best in the league, at least on paper. You have the second year of a system with a coach who is always known for having a productive running back, including last year when it was him. And they didn't go out. They didn't. They had all the draft picks in the world to bring in a top running back. They chose not to. So I think Isaiah Crowell is a great fit. And if you're in a dynasty league too, I mean, he's so young by.

[Jason Moore]

Man, I made a trade for him in our dynasty league.

[Mike Wright]

Shut up.

[Andy Holloway]

Shut up, Richard.

[Mike Wright]

I actually moved him down a little bit after digging in even further today for today's show.

[Jason Moore]

And you do not have him at 11 anymore.

[Mike Wright]

I don't. I've moved him down to where I would have to take a look.

[Jason Moore]

I'd love to hear this. I want to.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll look that up for you.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, thank you. And it's like Jason was talking about these, these games where he would have a big run. But looking at the last five years, guys who have under 200 carries, they don't get 900 plus yards. I mean, they barely get over 800. I was looking through and there's just a small, small handful of guys who actually did this. And what's also concerning to me is you need to average 12 and a half carries a game. That's how you get to 200, which I think is a, for a running back one on your team. You should be getting 200 carries, which Andy was saying he has not yet. He had 12 and under carries nine times. So it's just maybe that. Maybe that's going to go up. I agree with Jason that the offseason for the Cleveland Browns has been spectacular for Isaiah Cruella. Besides him getting an actual long term extension and the attitude problems. I know he signed his tenor, his tender, but that's a concern for me moving forward. And I just the, the. He had those monster games, just a couple monster games where it was what, that 75 plus yard run for a touchdown. But I'm very concerned about his workload and everything boils down to the targets. Will those targets be there again? While you have Duke Johnson, who is one of the best pass catching running backs in the league and for the.

[Andy Holloway]

Record, Andy and I have him 11, you have him 13.

[Jason Moore]

Here's the question that I have though is did he only have 12 or more carries in nine games because of the same situation you had or the inverse situation that Dak had where the game scripts for Cleveland, right. They couldn't run the ball the way that they wanted to run the ball. That could have also been why his receiving numbers went up and his time on the field went up. So I mean they didn't bring anybody else in. But if you. I think it's going to be a balance. Okay. And that's why I have him jumping slightly from 13 to 11. The offensive line gets better, the game strip should be slightly more positive. The carries should go up a little bit. And I'm not projecting his receiving yards to go up. Probably around the same, if not down, but that puts him in that top 12 category with upside. Yeah, this team surprised.

[Andy Holloway]

One of the things worth at least mentioning since we are talking about all of the things going right for Isaiah Crowell, who had a great year last year. Duke Johnson quietly had a very good year last year.

[Jason Moore]

They both had great years.

[Andy Holloway]

And when you look at the upcoming fantasy draft, Duke Johnson is a great value late. I mean he's like 13th plus rounds. And everything that happened good for Crowell happened for Duke as well.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I just think he's a, he's a guy.

[Mike Wright]

I agree. Last year he was the hotness. I mean you had many, many people in the fantasy industry were saying, okay, Duke Johnson, this is the breakout. Except all those extra targets they thought he was going to get ended up going to Crowell. And the last thing I'll say for him is it the quarterback situation. Who is the quarterback? Because you saw a Cody Kaiser.

[Andy Holloway]

Everybody knows that.

[Mike Wright]

But just looking at things like when they had, when Robert Griffin was the quarterback, targets were not going to Isaiah Crowell. But then when Kessler was in and Josh, especially Josh McCown then you were getting targets. So it, I think you're safe with, with Kessler or Kaiser. But just saying that that factors in as well.

[Jason Moore]

Tevin Coleman, yes. From 79th in 2015 all the way up to number 19 last year. And Tevin Coleman's a great guy to talk about here on regress or impress because he is the most uncomfortable of backs to own a back that is not the team's number one. He's not. There are no keys handed over to him. He does not get reign of the backfield.

[Mike Wright]

Say it's not.

[Jason Moore]

Doesn't even have a chance.

[Mike Wright]

It's not a 1A 1B either. It's. He's the 2.

[Jason Moore]

He's the 2. However, the offense is so good that it can sustain or was able to sustain two very very good running backs last year. Being number 19 in only 14 games is impressive for Tevin Coleman. Now what you didn't see to me now maybe I'm wrong. You guys looked at these numbers and maybe there's something I'm missing. But there wasn't a necessary, there wasn't necessarily a pattern with Tevin Coleman receiving the bulk of second half carries if they were ahead or anything like that. He seems to be used in a fashion that is to spell Devonta Freeman throughout the game at intervals that apparently the team believes makes Devonta Freeman even better.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's the way it seemed to me. And something I saw that was interesting was he had 11 touchdowns last year. Only one of those touchdowns though. So maybe this factors in. But only one of those touchdowns was scored when the Falcons were trailing. So 10 of his 11 touchdowns it was either tied or they were already winning. Now that could just be fluky thing. I just thought it was an interesting.

[Jason Moore]

It is.

[Andy Holloway]

They were winning a lot.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So I just thought it was interesting to note he only had 24% of the team's 10 zone carries. And we know that those 10 zone carries are fantasy gold.

[Jason Moore]

What percent was that?

[Mike Wright]

24, 24% of the team. So and then here's the, here's the big outlier question. Tevin Coleman, 30th in receptions for running backs, eighth in receiving yards. I mean that's a monster production. Very, very hyper efficient. That is probably not repeatable. And I mean you just, you. So you take some of that away to bring him down into the 20s. Let's say he still is excellent in the receiving game but he's only has the 20th most receiving yards in you've lost a lot of fantasy production.

[Jason Moore]

Regress or impress Mike Tevin Coleman.

[Mike Wright]

I'm going regress. But the excellent thing about Coleman is you are drafting a flex play. But he's also that hand cuff where if something happened to devonte Freeman, then Tevin Coleman can go full ham.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we got it. Mike went with regress.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

But potential. I'm not doing regressor impress. He's a rest for me. I've got him exactly at 19, which is where he finished last year. So he's going to rest right on that 19 spot. Jason, give me your regress or impress and we'll move on to wide receivers.

[Andy Holloway]

I echo most of what Mike said. I definitely think there's regression coming up. I mean, the dude averaged 13.2 yards per reception because he had so many receptions taken to the house or at least just a massive run.

[Jason Moore]

He was.

[Mike Wright]

Got the.

[Andy Holloway]

You got the change at. I'm expecting kind of a regression for the Falcons offense. So if I'm expecting that and you have this crazy outlier of a statistic in Tevin Coleman's receptions, I have to say regress. But I'm not saying don't draft him because he is still an unbelievably valuable handcuff who could be a flex play in the meantime.

[Jason Moore]

Those are rare bending that. You can't buy him at a handcuff.

[Mike Wright]

He's going to be like a fourth or fifth round pick.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, well, I'm not going to be investing a fourth or fifth.

[Jason Moore]

So you're saying don't draft him if.

[Andy Holloway]

He'S in the fourth? No, there are many.

[Mike Wright]

Where's the line right now?

[Jason Moore]

Are you drafting Frank Gore?

[Mike Wright]

Tevin Coleman play the name game?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I probably need to play the name game. Let me look up and see where Tevin Coleman's going right now. Fantasy football calculator. Brooks has it going fourth round, 408 in PPR. Yeah. So some guys going behind him. Doug Martin. I know.

[Jason Moore]

I'll take Dougie.

[Andy Holloway]

You would take Dougie. You've got the question mark with Rob Kelly and Derek Henry Blau Powell, you know.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I take Powell over him.

[Andy Holloway]

Frank Gore is always having.

[Jason Moore]

I want Tevin Coleman to be like my third or fourth running back on my bench waiting for that Devonta Freeman injury where he's the greatest player on earth. I don't want to have to take him where he's my fourth player off the board overall, which is what a 408 would be. So as much as I like the dude, those hesitations would hold me back now if he was dropping now what if you got Devonta Freeman in the first round? Are you willing to spend the 408 on Tevin Coleman? Mike.

[Mike Wright]

That becomes a little bit more interesting. That would just stink to have to invest that much. Two of your top four picks into a single backfield. But it's also nice to you know that you're going to have the Falcons running back. High risk though with Shanahan leaving. High risk.

[Andy Holloway]

I wouldn't.

[Mike Wright]

I'm not doing it.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Not with the other guys on the board. Wide receivers. Guys. We're going to talk about two players that were number seven and number eight last year. Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas, 24 years old, burst, literally burst right onto the scene. Fifteen games, 92 for over 1100 yards, nine touchdowns on 121 targets. You gotta love a year like that from a guy who was kind of finding his way in the beginning like every rookie does. Found it quick. And he found it with Drew Brees, number seven last year, and then Devonte Adams, who I am probably the lowest on of anybody in this office because I can't stand the 75 reception total. But he's with the best quarterback in football. 12 touchdowns last year, finished number eight. Can't argue with the numbers in the production. Might argue with the talent overall, but it might not matter. So regress or impress. We'll start with Michael Thomas, guys. Regress or impress.

[Andy Holloway]

Michael Thomas. I'm going to definitely say that he's going to impress. I went into this.

[Mike Wright]

He was number seven.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, I'm not expecting him to necessarily go up, but I think he will be a wide receiver. 1. He has one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the game playing. He lost Brandon Cooks, who was, you know, arguably the. 1 117. 1A, 1B. Right. 1117 targets gone. And those aren't going to go over to Michael Thomas. You know, they'll be soaked up by Willie Snead and bye. But I think that Michael Thomas. I went back and watched the film and because I did not want to buy into his. I mean, his catch percentage was absurdly high. But the reality was he came in and had an immediate rapport with Breeze. His route running was great, his hands were great. Everything seemed to sync up and it reminded me a lot of someone else who was a rookie with Drew Brees, who came out great playing the same exact role, which is Marquise Colston. And Marquis Colston from his rookie year to his sophomore year Went up across the board. So I think things are. I believe Michael Thomas is as safe as anyone in fantasy football can be, which is, you know.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean I have him. I'm with you, Jason. I have him around where he finished last year. I still was bringing this up to Mike in the office the other day. You can take Brandon Cook's targets away, but you're also taking away the game planning that the opposing defense does in the locker room against Brandon Cooks. And this we were talking and Mike was saying things like, well, you know, Brandon Cooks isn't a number one or whatever it is to opposing defenses. Brandon Cooks took the top off and Brandon Cooks was who you game plan against. You didn't go in last year. You didn't go in and game plan against Michael Thomas. But voice of public opinion, the voice of public opinion has had a long standing relationship with Ted Ginn whole career. Have I? Yes, his whole career. Look, Ted Ginn, I don't know if the snap count, the snap counts for Ted Ginn aren't going to be the same that they were for Brandon Cooks. I don't believe that for a second.

[Mike Wright]

I'm actually kind of with the voice public opinion on Ted Ginn. I think that he's going to be solid.

[Andy Holloway]

You stand alone here.

[Mike Wright]

That's fine.

[Andy Holloway]

I do think he's going to be solid. But I've got him losing at least 20 targets off of what Brandon Cooks did.

[Mike Wright]

And so since the Drew Brees era started in 2006 in New Orleans, the Saints average average the second most yards in the NFL and that includes six years as the number one. 117 targets gone with Brandon Cooks. And I know this is a little narrative street esque, but I feel like it's applicable here because of who the coach is. If Sean Payton likes you, you get the ball. He has, he has shown me that just over time, over time again with player. With players who maybe they don't deserve to get the ball yet Michael Thomas does. Tied for fourth in ten zone targets. Where was Brandon Cooks? 37th.

[Jason Moore]

That's what that's.

[Mike Wright]

He's not getting targeted when they go when they're inside the 10. Brandon Cooks is not seeing the ball. They're throwing it to Michael Thomas. So it's, it's tough because of the game as regressor and press because I don't think that he's going to finish higher than seventh. But I'm with Andy that I think he's a wide receiver one Devonte Adams.

[Jason Moore]

What do you guys think? About Devonte Adams, still only 24 years old. The 12 touchdowns last year, very impressive. Where do you have Devonte Adams finishing this year and what kind of a risk is he for fantasy owners? I am, I am not the biggest Devonte Adams fan. I have him in that wide receiver 2 range 21 and standard scoring half point leagues 23. So I am a regression. I believe he's a regression. I think he'll be around 70 receptions, but I think the touchdown totals will come down a little bit and that's going to be enough. That's what moved the needle for Devontae.

[Mike Wright]

What do you have his touchdowns at?

[Jason Moore]

Nine.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

So 12 to nine. I think he'll. Nine is a great total.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

But I have him 71 for 909. Good season for the Packers. Okay. Season for fantasy.

[Mike Wright]

I was going to say that since 2011, minus the Aaron Rodgers collarbone, he has at least two pass catchers with eight or more touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So lock in eight to me for Devonte Adams, which.

[Jason Moore]

That's a big gap that can't rotate back to Cobb, a healthy Randall Cobb this year.

[Mike Wright]

I just, I don't think it does.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think it.

[Jason Moore]

I'm just asking the question.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think it has to rotate off. I believe. And I know sometimes he has three with. Yeah, I was gonna say from the past.

[Jason Moore]

We know sometimes four, sometimes five.

[Andy Holloway]

He could do everything. The reality is he can support great fantasy seasons for Jordy, for devonte Adams and for Randall Cobb. You shared a stat a while back about when he's got, you know, a full season with Jordy since 2011, he averages, he being Aaron Rodgers, averages 40 touchdowns. When I'm picking my quarterback, I'm wanting to make sure they get to 30, you know, and it's like you're averaging 40. That's nuts. And when I look at, you know, since 2011, which is really when that the newest era has started in football in the NFL, I look at the names of receiving touchdown leaders. Of course, number two is Jordy Nelson.

[Mike Wright]

Of course.

[Andy Holloway]

Don't, don't even mind the fact that he missed a whole year. Okay. He's still.

[Jason Moore]

I will not mind that fact.

[Andy Holloway]

He's still the second highest touchdown total.

[Mike Wright]

So angry.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I'm just saying it's unbelievable. But here, let me read you number 9, number 10, 11 and 12. Okay. Or 9, 10, 11.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. This is since 2011, the number 9, 10 and 11 wide receivers in touchdown totals. You have Julio Jones, very good player. You have Larry Fitzgerald, first ballot hall of Famer. Then there's a guy named James Jones. How's his talent? He's. Is he any better or worse than devonte Adams?

[Mike Wright]

But he's very good at wearing.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh wait, I read that wrong. I actually read that wrong. The name was Aaron Rodgers. Okay, whoever Aaron Rodgers wide receiver is, is going to score touchdowns. So I, I do have him regressing. I've got him down at 15, so he's going to drop a little bit. But I, I still think he is like I bought into the fact that he has that role established with Aaron Rodgers and he's going to have touchdowns. Certainly more valuable in a standard league than a PPR.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, because more often than not that role means four or less receptions. 10 of 16 games he had four or less receptions. You don't get the PPR production. You are waiting for Aaron Rodgers to make his moment by moment trip into the red zone and then throw the ball.

[Andy Holloway]

And he's going to be risky depending on where you know where he ends up come draft season.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, I agree.

[Jason Moore]

The draft price is probably so regress or impress. Final word. I'm going regress on Adams. Mike.

[Mike Wright]

I'm going impress.

[Jason Moore]

Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to go with an impress. But I think he is still being overdrafted.

[Jason Moore]

All right, that's fair. Kyle Rudolph. Zach Ertz, the regressor impressed candidates at the tight end position. Look, Kyle Rudolph, number two. In a year where, well, you know, Travis Kelsey led the way with a season that was a little bit lower than what you'd expect from the top tier tight ends in recent years, Kyle Rudolph followed it up. Number 2, 83 catches, PPR Gold Mine. PPR solution for your tied in position. You plug them in. You wait for Sam Bradford to pepper him with four or five yard passes and you get him in the goal the red zone. Year before he only had 49 catches. So this was, this was Sam Bradford. Right? This is the magic equation here was adding Sam Bradford to Kyle Rudolph and you'd almost doubled his reception totals. So regressor impressed Bradford still there. What do you think about Kyle Rudolph? What's your vote?

[Mike Wright]

I like him. I love Kyle Rudolph, especially with his draft price. I think that the insanity that is a guy who finished number two. People are going to just bury him in drafts. The Sam Bradford effect is legitimate. This is not the first time that we've seen Sam Bradford favor his tight end. And you have to take a look at Kyle Rudolph's season. There is a story to be told with the Minnesota Vikings. And that story is once upon a time in a world, they did not come into the season hoping that Sam Bradford was going to be their quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

Because he wasn't on their team.

[Mike Wright]

They had Teddy Bridgewater, who has suffered a catastrophic, highly unfortunate injury, and they went, oh, crap, what are we going to do? They traded away A one to get Sam Bradford because the Eagles had taken Carson Wentz and they did that. I mean, this is, this is like a couple minutes before week one was going to start that they had to call up Sam Bradford. They said, don't worry because we have hall of Fame level Adrian Peterson. He's our running back. We will lean on him. Week three, he died. So the Minnesota Vikings were scrambling, trying to figure out what are we going to do for our offense. I mean, it was.

[Jason Moore]

Matt Aziato was leading the team cheers.

[Mike Wright]

And then you have them trying to figure out who's going to play what role. You have Jerick McKinnon is the, the pass catcher to start. And then, no, no, we're gonna make Ozzy out of the pass. They were completely turned around at who was going to do what. Meanwhile, Kyle Rudolph here is just cruising along, having a spectacular season in his first half, just his first half production. If you, if he ran that out all season long, it's 64 receptions.

[Jason Moore]

This is Rudolph.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So, like, because I'm saying in the second half, he really heated up. However, in the first half, he was still going to be the tight end six.

[Jason Moore]

This is, this really is told like a good story. Nobody uses meanwhile better than you do.

[Mike Wright]

I like Rudolph and I'm trying to sell people on him.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. All right, you've made.

[Andy Holloway]

Listen to this because I know what you're. I was going to bring this up if you didn't. I'm glad you have these numbers. They're unbelievable.

[Mike Wright]

His second half pace. Remember Sam Bradford pulled up in a stretch limo during the first quarter of the first game. His second half pace, 102 receptions, over a thousand yards, only six touchdowns. But that easily, easily makes him the tight end one overall. I'm not saying I'm putting him at tight end one. What I'm saying is his production is real. His production is sustainable.

[Jason Moore]

And Kyle Rudolph or Zach Ertz?

[Andy Holloway]

Kyle Rudolph by a mile, easily. If you want to talk, regress or impress, I, I think Kyle Rudolph will continue to impress. He, he has always been a very talented tight end. I remember years ago, you know, coming into his. Whatever it was, second or third season, Andy, you were super high on him and, and he has, he has shown in the past that, that he can, you know, put up. He was called Rudolph the red zone Reindeer because he has.

[Jason Moore]

By us.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, it was us.

[Mike Wright]

Look, I mean his, he was called around the world.

[Jason Moore]

They hailed him as the red zone.

[Mike Wright]

Reindeer, we called him.

[Andy Holloway]

But you know, his sophomore year he had nine touchdowns. I think he can do it. And I don't remember if this was last show or whether it was on the foot cast, but the question was asked about a surprising, you know what, what offense could surprise you? And I think Minnesota is going to take a step further forward offensively. And so if there are more red zone opportunities, he's the 10th.

[Jason Moore]

I disagree with you guys vehemently. He is a regression candidate of which I am fairly certain. He's a, he's a quarterback. I know the Sam Bradford effect was big, but it ties into the fact that that offense had no running game. Now you bring in Latavius Murray, you have Dalvin Cook.

[Mike Wright]

Wait, wait, you're saying they had no running game. So they solved it with Latavius Murray.

[Jason Moore]

In their mind they did, but they didn't. We drafted Dalvin Cook. I think with Cook you had Matt Aziato last year. You bring in two talented or opportunistic backs.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, look, one talented, one opportunistic.

[Jason Moore]

This was an outlier year for Kyle Rudolph. This is not an up and coming tight end that has been sitting there for a year. And you just see the trajectory moving forward. 250 yards, 400 yards, 300 yards, 230, 400, 800. This is. Unless you believe they're building the offense around him. I can't help but say this guy's going from where he was last year, number two to the bottom half of that top 10 to 12 range with a little bit of a wink in PPR leagues.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, we need a top six water bet because I think a lot water bet.

[Jason Moore]

Lucky. If you want to just go off of last year or in Mike's case, the second half of last year, then you said then Mike needs to make Zach Ertz the number one tight end because he was actually the number one if you project his back half stats last year. So for me it's, it's a very easy on paper regression to me and I think I'm not buying into Rudolph.

[Andy Holloway]

A rookie, Teddy Bridgewater and Christian Ponder and those type of things, you know, quarterbacks that he had before this last year are why he had 4 or 500 yards, not because he doesn't have the talent. He's Always had the talent, in my opinion. And he will have the opportunity, the talent and will finish as a top six.

[Mike Wright]

It's rough for your career when Sam Bradford coming in is the savior quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

All right, well, I mean, look, difference of opinion. I've got the regress, you guys got the impress. And we're moving on to our last. Our last name here, which is Zachary Ertz. Oh, Zach Ertz. There he is. I was more excited for Zach Ertz when I saw the rapport he was building with Carson Wentz. The target share that he had before Alshon, Jeffrey, Torrey Smith.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

And the two draft picks came in. That being said, I'm not going to throw him away. Okay. This is a guy who finished nine, then he finished six. He would be the example of what Rudolph wasn't, which is somebody who is progressing forward over his career, not five years of mediocrity. And then one good year for Zach Ertz, I have him slightly above Rudolph. I have him at number seven. So I'm going to call him a impressed because last year he finished six. Next year I think he finished top seven. So that's my piece. I said enough of it on the last guy. So you guys can go ahead and round us out.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's the trouble for Zach Ertz is Alshon Jeffrey in Torrey Smith and Jordan Matthews getting to play back in the slot. So. And on top of that, Zach Ertz shows up for the last four games and then things just make a stat line look, look nice. By the end of the year, I have Zach.

[Jason Moore]

He just doesn't score touchdown. That has been the huge problem.

[Mike Wright]

Certainly does not. I have him as a regression candidate and mostly because the of the new targets I'm with Andy when before Alshon was there. I love it. The Ertz breakout. Let's have it. Let's have it really happen. I just. I can't buy into it.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. One of the things that made Ertz was just his target share percentage. And there's no way he can sustain that target share percentage with actual capable wide receivers. Now in Philadelphia, I have him as my tight end 8. So I can't really say regress, but because his trajectory was high, you know, impressing to me, I feel like Zach Ertz impressing would be he's taken that leap into a locked and loaded top five. So I'm kind of in between, but I think he's going to be an all right tight end.

[Jason Moore]

There's a couple.

[Andy Holloway]

Nothing I'm excited about.

[Jason Moore]

There's a couple things that's nice about Ertz when you're looking at a projection for him. One, much like Amari Cooper, you don't have this unsustainable tight end touchdown number that is going to regress and hurt you. Two, he hasn't had a season where he stayed fully healthy and yet he still finished nine and six. So he only played 14 games last year and he was part of that whole. Okay, he was looking great with Sam Bradford moments before the season begins. Sam Bradford's gone. You have a rookie coming in, still put up a number six season. Those three things make me say, okay, core part of the offense, top six, top 70 number six for me and half point seven in standards. So I don't think either of those guys after all this was said and debated, I don't think either of those guys is going to kill you this year. I don't think either of those guys is necessarily going to drop out of the top 10. But you know you're going to have better seasons from Jordan Reed, Rob Gronkowski, I'd expect Greg Olson and some guys. Tyler Ifert healthy that I like a lot more than spinning. You know, you're going to see leagues where Kyle Rudolph and Travis Kelsey go way too high right now.

[Andy Holloway]

What I love about both these guys is Rudolph and ertz are the 10th and 11th tight end off the board. Both of them in my projections are higher than that position.

[Jason Moore]

So 10th and 11th.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And you know who's going are rookies.

[Jason Moore]

Going ahead of them?

[Mike Wright]

No, but here's. Here's two guys going in front of him. Martellus Bennett.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I can see that.

[Mike Wright]

Hunter Henry.

[Jason Moore]

I can see that too.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, I can.

[Mike Wright]

I can see it.

[Jason Moore]

I see why it happens. But it shouldn't happen.

[Mike Wright]

But it should not is the point.

[Jason Moore]

You can only do so much in this world, Mike, and then everybody makes decisions for themselves. We're gonna take a couple seconds, answer a few voicemails and then we'll wrap things up. But we want to answer some listener questions.

[Andy Holloway]

Mailbag, mail bag.

[Jason Moore]

Now it's time. Let's an questions. A lot of Dynasty questions coming in lately with it being May and all.

[Mike Wright]

What?

[Jason Moore]

Visit the website thefantasyfootballers.com Go to the more tab and then click Submit a question and you can send in your question to the show. We answer a few on almost every show and then you can also dial Our voicemail hotline, 302-464-TFFB and that's where we're going to kick it off in today's Mailbag segment with a voicemail question that I have not heard. This has only been heard by.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, man. The pressure's on Brooks.

[Jason Moore]

By Brooks. So hope there's no profanity. Hey, guys, Jimbo here. Love the show. Longtime listener, Bookland member. Just had a question about kickers. I am the commissioner of my league and I took kickers away last year. Half the league loved it, half the league hated it. I'm wondering if there's just in between solution that I can find. Perhaps removing the points per yardage for kickers and rather just giving one point for every field goal that's made. Curious to hear your thoughts. This is a heated topic in my group and I want to find a democratic solution. Thanks, guys.

[Andy Holloway]

Sounds like a good commissioner.

[Jason Moore]

Thoughtful commissioner. There. Look, he hit on what I would have done. I don't think you need to take kickers away. I think it's a fun thing to have more players to watch. I would nerf the scoring the same way I would do defenses. And so his solution would have been nerfing it more than I would have even suggested. I probably would have said three for a make, no matter the distance, no penalties for missing. And so you can't go negative.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, that's exactly what I would nerf it to. Every year in our league of record, when I would stand up before the podium and say, I vote to remove kickers and would immediately be rejected in that, I would say I vote to nerf kickers because, you know, when you get those, oh, he kicked a 50 yarder, so you get five points. That. That's silly to me and I agree.

[Jason Moore]

With each and every one. Or you get a block 30 yarder.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Wasn't his fault necessarily.

[Andy Holloway]

So, yeah, I would say three points for, you know, a field goal and one point for an extra point. No negatives and move on with your life.

[Jason Moore]

Although you may need to look into the fact that you have a group of owners that are upset about kickers that could concern you. All right, Eagles question about Alshon Jeffrey. Why should I draft Alshon Jeffrey with my third pick when players like Doug Baldwin, Keenan Allen, Larry Fitzgerald, and Brandon Cooks are also available? I guess he's asking this based on our rankings, possibly seeing Alshon Jeffrey up in the 10, 11 range for me, look, he. I have a very complicated answer that. So track with me. He's enormous.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. I think I'm. I think I'm following you.

[Jason Moore]

You with me so far?

[Andy Holloway]

So far.

[Jason Moore]

Look, at the end of the day, You've got a guy on a one year deal with an up and coming quarterback and he's enormous when he plays team.

[Mike Wright]

Big wide receivers happening right now.

[Jason Moore]

He scores. The end.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

The end of the story.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

So unless you're projecting injury, which by the way, Keenan Allen is very familiar with. I don't, I don't. If you want to take one of these other guys, take them. Our rankings are based on our projections. I'm not sure Jason is where me and Mike are with Alsha and Jeffrey.

[Mike Wright]

He did have to move him up.

[Andy Holloway]

And I loved it. Yeah. So here's where I am on Alshon.

[Jason Moore]

Because I don't want to like him, by the way, because I don't like guys that get hurt. Like Mike. Yeah, Mike likes those guys.

[Andy Holloway]

I had Alshon at 30 and I was throwing some shade on Alshon. I looked into it.

[Mike Wright]

You were strutting around. I caught stuff. Look what I did to Alshon.

[Andy Holloway]

Jeffrey. Well, I took, I took another look, new information. And I had to move him up. I did. Because, you know, the touchdown total I was projecting for Carson Wentz was. There were, there were some, there were, there were some apps and touchdowns. But I will say this. His upside is not what his upside has been in the past. And you could say, oh, all he does is score touchdowns. But you know, he, he had that one year where he played 16 games, got 10 touchdowns. It was great. But we're living on that. Like his, his next highest touchdown total was seven. The next highest is four. He's, he has not really ever strung together, you know, multiple years of great touchdown production. We just think he is because he's big. And so I think Carson Wentz, he is not going to be throwing 30 touchdowns next year. And he does have more options. You know, he's still got Zach Ertz, maybe some touchdowns start going his way or Tory Smith or Darren Sprols and you have injury risk. So for me, I think he is a fine, you know, he's going to be all right. He's a wide receiver too, for me. But in the third round, if Doug Baldwin's there, I'm taking Doug Baldwin personally.

[Jason Moore]

I also like that he's a chunky guy. He's always been a high yards per catch type of guy who grabs those big chunkyard plays. But Mike, any thoughts on Alshaw?

[Mike Wright]

I would not draft him in the third. I mean that the thing about rankings are they do not always tell the whole story, which is why we have our tiered rankings and our full projections available in The Ultra.

[Jason Moore]

Get the whole picture.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Sometimes you got to take a step back because it's a PPR league. I would, I'd rather have Larry Fitzgerald and it depends on who else is on your team. So there's a lot of big questions here. I'm not telling you to take Alshon in the third because I would not do that.

[Jason Moore]

I'm laughing over here at this question. We'll wrap it up with this one. A reminder, Mike just brought up the Ultimate Draft kit. There are 16 days left to get it at preorder pricing at Ultimate Draft Kit.

[Mike Wright]

Cheapest you can possibly get it.

[Jason Moore]

That's true.

[Mike Wright]

Way to say I'm standing by it.

[Jason Moore]

Good, good. This, this question came in and the title of the question is All Capitals and it says Kelvin Benjamin. And he said, listen to this. Last year guys, I traded away Michael Thomas for Kelvin Benjamin.

[Mike Wright]

Oh no.

[Jason Moore]

And the person I traded with will not let me forget about it as they shouldn't. Is K Binge going to have a bounce back year? I am getting him very late in mock drafts. But when should he be going? Look, Calvin Benjamin to me.

[Mike Wright]

The loudest.

[Jason Moore]

Panic alarm may not have turned the sound down after that voicemail.

[Mike Wright]

But. But here's the thing. Hopefully you had Calvin Benjamin for weeks one and two because that was spectacular.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, that's when trade happened.

[Andy Holloway]

Very good.

[Jason Moore]

Oh that's absolutely when the trade happened right off the. I'm guessing week four because he had the two good weeks down one and then I bet that's when the trade happened. Probably Michael Thomas had a good week. But look, Calvin Benjamin has some things stacked against him. One of the concerns about Benjamin when he came out of college was the motor. Did this guy want to play football enough? And I think you've seen the intermittency of Calvin Benjamin. Yeah, he had the injured year but last year sometimes he looked into it, sometimes he didn't. You've had weight reports. Now you have Curtis Samuel and you have McCaffrey out of the backfield and.

[Andy Holloway]

You also did lose gin.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And Corey Brown.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, no, that's true. But you have to bank on a couple of things happening. You have to bank on him returning to form and you have to bank on that quarterback, Mr. Cam Newton finding himself again. So I am not a Calvin Benjamin.

[Andy Holloway]

Kelvin's going to have a wide range, I think depending on which draft you're on because like did you like a wide range? Some people still really like him and he might be drafted in the fourth or fifth round and in some leagues you're going to have him fall to the sixth or seventh. When I'm in the seventh round and I see Kelvin there, I'm completely willing to take him because his upside potential is still there versus a lot of the guys that go in the in the seventh round.

[Jason Moore]

No, that's fair.

[Andy Holloway]

So it's just a matter of what type of league you're in.

[Jason Moore]

He's enormous too Connor here credit for that.

[Mike Wright]

Connor says he's in a standard league. And what you got to hope for here, Connor, is that the addition of McCaffrey and Samuel makes this a more high powered flying offense. Get Kelvin Benjamin some on the oxygen mask. No, give Kelvin Benjamin more scoring goal line opportunities because we know he's. He can do that.

[Jason Moore]

Oh yeah. Oh yeah.

[Mike Wright]

He is just. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And I do think that I will say this. I mean we've said this many, many times. Cam Newton had too big of a season in 2015. It was, it was not the norm. But last year was also not the norm. I think it's going to be in between there and if he throws three or four more touchdowns than he did last year and none of them are to Ted Gen. Kelvin Benjamin could have a bounce back.

[Mike Wright]

He's like in a half pipe right now. He just keeps too high. No, too low. Too high.

[Jason Moore]

Pendulum swinging.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, let's, let's nice and average. Safe. Give me safe Cam.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for tuning into the show. We'll be back on Thursday. Don't forget, we ramp this thing up to five days a week starting in August.

[Mike Wright]

So check out. Hope you're ready for trophies. The promo code is footballers.

[Jason Moore]

Bye. Bye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thanks for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.