
Fantasy Football Podcast for April 25th, 2017. It's a very exciting episode of The Fantasy Footballers Podcast as we dive into the 2017 Rookie prospects! We tackle the key guys to watch for during the NFL Draft at QB, RB, WR, and TE. NFL.com's Matt Harmon
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Andy Holloway
Hey. This is mark Davis Bryant, aka Marty McBride. Hey. This is Fred Jackson.
Jason Moore
This is hall of Fame and Marshall Falk. Hey.
Mike Wright
This is Alan Robinson.
Andy Holloway
Hey. This is me, Abdulah.
Jason Moore
Hey. This is Willie Snee.
Andy Holloway
Hey.
Jason Moore
This is David Johnson.
Andy Holloway
Hey.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
This is Kristen Michaels.
Matt Harmon
Hi.
Jason Moore
This is Eric Dickinson, NFL hall of Famer. And you listen to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.
Andy Holloway
Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from the fantasyjocks.com studios with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.
Jason Moore
Whoa. Two days away from the NFL draft.
Mike Wright
Me and Jay are doing the draft dance right now.
Jason Moore
Two days, my friends. You know what that is? Two days. That's Jason's 40 time. Two days.
Andy Holloway
Two days.
Jason Moore
Two days away from the NFL draft.
Mike Wright
As we call it in my household. Two sleeps.
Jason Moore
Two sleep.
Mike Wright
When you're talking to the kids like, when is this happening? Two sleeps. They don't get the concept yet of the days.
Jason Moore
There's something entertaining about the.
Mike Wright
You don't go with the sleep measurements.
Jason Moore
Childlike anticipation for the NFL draft that comes with two sleeps away from the draft.
Andy Holloway
Two sleeps away.
Jason Moore
We're two sleeps away.
Andy Holloway
Not if I skip one.
Mike Wright
I guess that's a fair point.
Jason Moore
I'd be trying to just sleep the full two days. So you just. It's time travel one sleep away. Then Tuesday, April 25th, we're back again. The Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Look, the draft is almost here. The final shoe to drop, so to speak, of the offseason. That's when things really get fired up, ready to go for 2017, when your draft plans as a fantasy football owner can begin to take shape. You know, no more question marks. I mean, you're going to have some second tier free agent signings. You're going to have the Jamal Charles and Adrian Peterson and those type of players.
Mike Wright
You have camp battles to still you do.
Jason Moore
And we'll keep you up to date with everything that's going on all offseason. That's what we do here. We're a year round fantasy football podcast. But I'm excited for the draft. I think we all are excited. And today's show is jam packed with draft info. We're going to be breaking down the rookies. It's going to be a great episode. We're going to go through all the positions. This is about name recognition. This is about knowing what to watch for on draft day, get hyped up. And then Thursday before the draft, we're going to give you some team overviews so you can be anticipating, looking forward to some of the better fits.
Andy Holloway
I believe On Thursday, we are going to be making our predictions for the major guys and where they'll go.
Mike Wright
It's round one. Correct.
Andy Holloway
We'll figure that out between now and Thursday.
Jason Moore
But don't box us in, Mike.
Andy Holloway
After the draft, we're going to calculate up who got the most right. And whoever got the most right picks the lunch of whoever got the most wrong. Yeah.
Jason Moore
Okay. All right.
Mike Wright
Is that what it. So the middle person is safe?
Andy Holloway
Middle person is safe.
Mike Wright
All right. Just got to be better than the last place.
Jason Moore
Yeah, well, someone's going to be a loser.
Mike Wright
Someone's eating eggplant.
Jason Moore
And what. We'll talk about that on the show the following week, our draft recap show, of course. So. All right, I've got a very essential quick question of the day. You know, these quick questions, they hit hard. They're very serious. What's the most essential draft food? What food do you need for. We get a disproportionate amount of questions about what do you need for the NFL draft, food wise. Because this is crucial.
Andy Holloway
You got to have your friends over. You have that draft day party. What do you give them to eat?
Jason Moore
Now, Mike, you have a. You should probably bring it up again.
Mike Wright
Yeah, you have to. It's the. The legendary dip. It is. I mean, this thing has become just historically famous now across the nation because people are understanding that this is not only an easy to create food item that you can bring, but necessary. It is necessary. It is delicious.
Jason Moore
So this. You've got a dip. Mike has a dip.
Mike Wright
It's a sausage dip. And for all the culinary impaired out there, let me help you out. This is all you need. You need one block of Philly cream cheese. You need one can of Ro Tel mild and a half or to a full pound. I mean, that's. It depends on how meaty you like the dip. But I go with a half pound of the sweet Italian sausage. You brown the sausage and you throw it all in a crock pot and you're done.
Andy Holloway
Chop it up, throw it in a crock pot.
Jason Moore
That is as easy as rolling David Johnson into your lineup if you've never seen it.
Mike Wright
I will. I will admit that perhaps at first glance, you go, well, that's a little strange looking, but just get those dip chips ready and you are. Your draft will be changed forever for me.
Andy Holloway
I'm going to go pizza. Look, if you're having a draft party over wings. Yes, I thought about that. I was thinking, dude, what's more important? But you gotta have the pizza because you need to Be able to go run, grab a slice, come back, you know, in between the picks at commercials. I don't want my hand.
Jason Moore
One slice per pick.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, exactly right. Lot of pizza.
Jason Moore
A lot of pizza. That is the.
Mike Wright
That's the correct answer, Jason.
Andy Holloway
Oh, Brooks weighing in. He's the pizza lover.
Jason Moore
I'll probably have a pint of Halo top in my. In my new Halo top holsters. I've got an actual leather holster where I can.
Andy Holloway
But spoons in the belt.
Mike Wright
Just imagining you with spoons, I would.
Jason Moore
It's a spoon on the right and then the actual pints on the left. But it's refrigerated. Like it's a big holster. It's a cooler host.
Mike Wright
I'm also then imagining you with the. The typical hat that holds the two beverages. Oh, yeah, except root beer.
Jason Moore
No ice cream.
Mike Wright
No, it's Halo top that he is like blended into a shake.
Jason Moore
Yeah, well, I do like my ice cream. All right, we're gonna talk some news that just broke yesterday.
Andy Holloway
News and notes from around the league last Thursday.
Mike Wright
Last Thursday, not yesterday.
Jason Moore
Oh, is that why Jason was looking around like a. So we're pre recording this show because Mike has a family vacation.
Mike Wright
Gotta get ready.
Jason Moore
Taking place on Tuesday. So we're recording this Friday. So if, you know, if Marshawn lynch, for instance, were to sign.
Mike Wright
That's an excellent point.
Jason Moore
If he were to sign, I would obviously have spent most of this show mocking Mike.
Mike Wright
Correct.
Jason Moore
So don't, you know, come in here with expectations that I've let you down because there's always coming. There's always Thursday. All right, the NFL schedule was released. We had. I hopped on to JoinTheFoot.com last night, was chatting with members of the foot clan, and they were asking, do we have some thoughts or feedback on the NFL schedule? We know that the season starts with New England and Alex Smith, of course, Kansas City. I believe Alex Smith has the most prime time games of anybody. And that is not a joke. So my guess is that the NFL is monitoring Twitter for buzz and the Alex Smith has been. They're like, the world loves Alex Smith.
Mike Wright
He's must watch TV.
Jason Moore
So in a world where people are.
Mike Wright
Throwing for 400 yards a game, Alex Smith is burning it up with 180.
Jason Moore
Sorry, I was just gonna say when you. When you talk strength of schedule, because that. That's the first thing that comes out. Like the Colts, they have the easiest strength to schedule in the league. You have some good schedules for. The Jacksonville Cardinals have a pretty good one 23rd, I think you have to keep in mind like that, that is to us many times a tie breaking type of fantasy decision is the strength of schedule. Strengths of schedule is based on last year. I mean, you cannot, you don't know what this year's strength of schedule will be. If I can say the word.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, you'll hear us talk about a lot in the draft that we don't factor too much, you know, the strength of schedule early in the season once we've got enough data of 2017. So, you know, when we get halfway through the year, those matchups really start to matter. Because when you compare year over year defenses and where they rank, I mean, just look at the New York Giants last year, right? I mean, one of the best passing defenses in the league. The year before they were one of the worst. So if you went into that year and you said, hey, I've got, you know, these ma, I've got a home game against the Giants. Oh, that's going to be juicy. Well, you were, you were probably wrong.
Jason Moore
And I think you actually make a point within your point.
Andy Holloway
Yes.
Jason Moore
A point ception, if you will.
Andy Holloway
I did it.
Jason Moore
But here's what you said. There is that you differentiated between strength of schedule and passing and running defenses. Those are the things that actually maybe even greatlier greatly.
Andy Holloway
Oh, yes, you're. Yes. Come to me.
Mike Wright
You turn to the dark side, man.
Jason Moore
Oh, gosh.
Andy Holloway
So let's talk about that now.
Jason Moore
I know what it feels like to be Jason and be making a wonderful point and have it completely destroyed by one word that slips out of your mouth.
Andy Holloway
I will take it over then.
Jason Moore
Good.
Andy Holloway
You know, shout out. It's still early and you know, a lot of places need to run their data and see. But if you do want to look back at the 2016 and project that forward harp football. Shout out. Great Twitter follow.
Mike Wright
It's very sharp.
Andy Holloway
Very sharp. Has, you know, some really good work on this and he's broken it down. Pasty run d their efficiency and he's got like this blend of certain stats that is really smart, is really sharp, one might say. And if you look at that for this upcoming season and you look at their blended pass d schedule, you've got the league ranked kind of like who's got the best, who's got the worst on this chart. And a mile away in first place, like totally off the chart for easier, for easiest schedule is the Carolina Panthers against Pasty. So maybe Kelvin Benjamin might be able to succeed a little bit more.
Mike Wright
More than two games.
Jason Moore
Yeah, the guy throwing him the ball has to succeed too. All right, let's jump right into the rookie preview. We got a lot of names to get you aware of out there and.
Mike Wright
So let's go ahead and start at.
Jason Moore
The running back position.
Andy Holloway
Running backs. All right.
Mike Wright
This is the hot, the hotness right now. This is what people want to know about. This rookie class has been much hyped for years. The. I'm not sure that's now that we're here that everyone's as hyped, but there are still some really heavy hitters here who. And with the success of Ezekiel Elliott kind of transforming things then, I mean there could be more than more, more than just one guy taken in the first round.
Jason Moore
There's no way that the success of Ezekiel Elliott didn't affect the way dynasty rookie draft owners are looking at this draft and trading for those top picks. I think that that had an impact that pushed people towards running backs, that pushed people towards, wow, I could get a guy that not only is great long term, but could be a top five type of player immediately. And so generally you don't get an Ezekiel Elliott every year.
Mike Wright
No, no, you certainly do not.
Jason Moore
Do we? Is that in the cards this year for anybody? And who's your favorite running back right now? What's that, what's the name that, that you think is going to end up.
Mike Wright
If you're comparing it to Elliott's, like in my opinion, abandoned hope on that because Ezekiel Elliott was a dominant cor College running back. He was great in all facets of the game, extremely well rounded despite them not really using him in pass catching last year for Dallas and obviously he showed that he's got the chops. But it was the perfect, the perfect rookie candidate went to the absolute ideal situation and that doesn't exist this year. I think that the best fantasy situation would be if somehow a three down guy went to Oakland and took over. But, but we're going to talk about that stuff on Thursday. My favorite higher level guy of this, of this draft that I'm most interested in is I really like Christian McCaffrey. I think that he is an all around guy. He was absolutely dominant at the college level and what I love on top of him, I mean he had a year with 2,000 yards rushing, so it's not like he can't get it done on the ground. But in the receiving game, absolutely incredible. A year with 45 receptions, 37 receptions. I know it's kind of. It's become a little bit invoked to like Christian calf, Christian McCaffrey. But I don't see why that's a bad thing to do this. I think that this group who likes him, I'm on board with that. He's the most interesting name for the first round for me.
Andy Holloway
Well, he's certainly the most well rounded. Without a doubt. There's nobody who can, you know, run up the middle, run to the side, can run out of shotgun, can run out of, you know, the eye formation blew up the combine, can catch the ball as well, can play on special teams. I mean he could be a wide receiver. He could. There's no better, more well rounded player in this year's draft. And really, you know, when you're just talking about well rounded, he's even more well rounded than Zeke. But he is not as special or as built for the workload. And that's my worry. I will say with Christian McCaffrey in half point and full point PPR leagues, you're going to get a bonus from him because any team drafting him is going to use him in the passing game. He is his hands. I mean when he catches the ball, it's like a wide receiver, just effortless, thoughtless, just the ball sticks to him and he moves. The problem that I have is that just because we draft Knicks, watch the game tape and argue that he can run it up the middle and he can get 20 carries a game, we can scream all day that that can happen and be frustrated the coach isn't doing it. But it doesn't change the fact that coaches might not want to give that workload to a guy, you know, that's not, not 220 pounds and he could.
Jason Moore
Easily end up in a situation where he is, you know, he's not going to walk in and take three downs someplace. You know, he could go to a Denver and end up sharing time with C.J. anderson and with Booker. Now he's 20 years old. He's two years younger than Leonard Fournette. Fournette and Dalvin Cook are the other two big names in the first round. I love Leonard Fournette as a game changing type of running back that look what did Adrian Peterson show people? And I'm not saying Lynard Fournette is Adrian Peterson, but what he showed people were these big monster, weak winning fantasy football plays and the speed and size combination of Leonard Fournette tells me you're going to get some of those in year one regardless of landing spot, regardless of volume. Now I think a team that's drafting him is going to take him in the top 1015 picks at worst. So that's going to necessitate by draft position a high volume and workload for Leonard Fournette. I think he's got the body and the size to sustain an NFL workload. It's why he's at the top of my board. I do. I respect the fantasy realities of a guy like Dalvin cook and Christian McCaffrey to be instantaneously involved in the passing game. And so it's very possible these guys are all competing for the fantasy crown, so to speak, as rookies. But Fournette's the big guy for me, literally, figuratively, gigantic. I just love everything about him. We don't see a usage in the passing game in college. It doesn't mean it cannot happen, but the likelihood of that happening is lower.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. What we have seen from him, you know, past skills wise, is that he can do the job. He's not the same as a Christian McCaffrey. I'm not saying.
Jason Moore
Would you say Gurley can do the job, but he's not. He doesn't excel at it. Isn't that the same type of thing?
Mike Wright
I feel like we had data on him, just watching him in college. He was used. That's why it was. It was. Gurley was so bizarre his rookie year that Jeff Fisher was not dialing up plays to throw to his best player.
Jason Moore
Well, I was just kind of. I thought I was adding to your point.
Andy Holloway
I actually do. I think that you are. That you make a very good analogy. I would say they both are in the same realm of when. When you come. When it comes to being capable of catching the ball. They're both capable. That's not their strength.
Jason Moore
Not necessarily featured.
Andy Holloway
Right.
Mike Wright
Gurley had a 37 reception year his sophomore year.
Jason Moore
Okay.
Andy Holloway
Which is all right. And so, you know, it's exactly what.
Jason Moore
McCaffrey had last year.
Mike Wright
For Leonard, it's better and all right.
Andy Holloway
For Leonard Fournette, I would be surprised. And we don't know where he's drafted yet, but even now I can say I will be surprised if he doesn't get 250 carries. I mean, you're getting a guy to build an offense around. And the thing that I like about him the most, more than metrics, more than, you know, the fact that his weight adjusted speed score is unbelievable. Is that from high school, probably even from grade school, this guy was talked about as one of those generational type of players. And he did it.
Mike Wright
He's scouting was great.
Andy Holloway
And he, he came in as, you know, the top recruit into college and all he did in college was crush college players and show that he was one of the most dominant college running backs. When you've got a guy that's just done that, his whole life has never slowed down. And now, you know, the NFL circles love this guy. And if he's drafted high, I don't see a reason why, you know, we want to look at film and find all the flaws in guys and there are certain things he can't do. Personally, when I watch it and some people disagree, I genuinely think he struggles and is not special out of shotgun. That's just what I see on film. That's what I think. The numbers back up. I'm not saying he forgets how to run, but that's not his specialty. But he is going to be drafted, made the centerpiece of an offense, given the ball, and I think he's going to crush it. So, yeah, I'm with you, Andy. He is my number one running back for sure in this class and I love McCaffrey as well. So that leaves Dalvin Cook.
Jason Moore
Dalvin Cook has a few off the field potential concerns, baggage that comes along with him. He's also 5 10, 210 undersized, but a weapon in all facets. I mean, he was obviously a very dominant player. You put him in a wide open type of offense. You put him in a position where I keep saying Philadelphia, I know we're going to talk about fits. I think that's a great fit for Dalvin Cook, but I do think that there's the potential for Dalvin Cook to drop in this draft, certainly. Because if you, if the match isn't there for Dalvin Cook with the teams on the board, I think he's the kind of guy that could slide in this draft for sure. So.
Mike Wright
And if you were not paying attention, which if you're listening to a fantasy football podcast in April, you probably were, Dalvin Cook quickly fell out, fell down people's draft boards for Dynasty drafts when he sucked off the combine. I mean, his, his numbers were startling when you, when you watch him on, on tape, it just did not match with, with what he was able to produce at the combine for, for athletic measurables.
Andy Holloway
You know what's funny is why don't.
Jason Moore
They run the 40 with pads? Why isn't that like a, they really should, why isn't that like another metric?
Andy Holloway
They shouldn't even run it without pads. Like they should just change it over to get in your, you know, your football, grab the football, get in your.
Mike Wright
Football, climb into the, took the football.
Andy Holloway
To the ball, you know, get in your uniform and run.
Jason Moore
I mean, that's, I mean that's how you play, right?
Andy Holloway
If you're a running back, you should have the ball in your hand and run. But you, yeah. Anyways, Dalvin Cook to me, and I'm not going to be popular for saying this. Oh, you know, I don't see when I watch his highlights, the dude is electric. He has so many breakaway plays and clearly is fast. I mean, and that he didn't have a problem with at the combine. I think he ran what, a 4, 4 9. But he did not look to me like a guy that I could trust in the NFL for a lead back. He had fumbling issues.
Jason Moore
Not going to get the short yardage. He bounces it outside too much. I agree with all that.
Andy Holloway
He was really bad at pass protection. When I was watching the games that I watched every snap of, you know, I would see him whiff on guys or just get beat or it looked like he didn't know how to do it. And you know, he's only 210 pounds, which, you know, that's fine. It's not into the world. But I'm saying to invest a first round draft pick in a guy that has these off field baggage fumbles, pass protection, I don't, you know, I would.
Jason Moore
Be surprised here from fantasy, from 2/3 of the fantasy footballers at least.
Mike Wright
Sure. And I've, I still, I still really like him. I don't think I agree. I don't think he's a first round draft pick, but I still like him.
Jason Moore
All right, some more names at the running back position to throw out there. Before I do that, I want to thank Pristine Auction for supporting the show, supporting the podcast. Look, you hear us talk about them.
Andy Holloway
Right now, supporting your living rooms.
Jason Moore
Oh, dude. I mean, Dak Prescott lit the league on fire. Tons of autographed Dak Prescott gear on pristineauction.com went on there this morning. Hundreds of daily auctions. There's a Derek Carr autograph jersey sitting on the homepage. There's a, I mean, if you, you want to go big time with your celebration of the Patriots super bowl, there's a 2016 Patriots autographed helmet. Everybody on the team. Right, right on the homepage. And if you just, you know, if you're just a Tom Brady loyalist, you can get that helmet or you can get the Tom Brady sign helmet or you can get the Tom Brady signed Michigan helmet that's sitting on the homepage. There's some Joe Montana gear that went up There for the classic football lovers. Hundreds of daily auctions. Completely free to check it out. Pristineauction.com P R I S T I N E auction dot com. You sign up for a free account so you can browse the auctions.
Mike Wright
You let them know the footballer sent you.
Jason Moore
We sent you. It's us. We sent you. All right. Joe Mixon.
Andy Holloway
Oh, boy.
Mike Wright
Yeah. I mean, you got to talk about it. And yes, you have to address the off field issues. They are there. And so just, just to get it out of the way real quickly. There are a lot of people who play fantasy football who. You saw this with Adrian Peterson's incident. If you want to play and you say these guys, no, they don't go on my team, that is completely fine. I personally, I do not have a problem with that. But we have to give you the analysis of what this guy is going to do in the NFL.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. And the reality is he would be, he would be my number one running back if it wasn't for the incident. And that's not because of just a moralistic thing. It's because that incident still affects his NFL trajectory. And you can't ignore that. The fact that he's going to cost less draft capital for a team, a team is not going to be as invested in them. A team might make him prove himself over a longer period of time before they say, hey, you're the center of our offense or our franchise when it comes to him as a talent, as a player. Man alive. It had been a while since I had watched Joe Mix it. He was one of the first guys. And I was watching Smajay P. Ryan, a teammate who Mike, I know you.
Mike Wright
Like, we'll talk about him.
Andy Holloway
And he was all right to me. And then I flipped over and watched the same game to Mixon and was like, oh my goodness, dude, this guy, his vision is perfect. His cuts are electric, his speed is unbelievable, his size is great. He catches the ball almost as well as McCaffrey. He's. I mean, I don't have anything on the field I don't like about mixing.
Jason Moore
And there's a potential that he's not drafted.
Andy Holloway
True.
Jason Moore
Or isn't drafted until the sixth, seventh, eighth round.
Mike Wright
He could go anywhere from the team.
Jason Moore
Can justify the risk associated with Joe Mixon. And like you said, there are teams without question that have taken him off the board. I mean, and there was other reports. They were erroneous, supposedly. Erroneous. We don't know other reports of incidents involving Joe Mixon. And here's the Thing you don't want to draft a player who even can be, you know, accused of something, even if it's false. You put yourself in a position where you are not above reproach as an athlete. Those things come to light the same way they do for presidential candidates. You know, the media out there wants a story. If you've put yourself in that position, you can be a distraction for your team. And some teams do not want to take any chance at the distraction. Or some teams basically say a distraction is worth no more than an 8th round pick because at least at that point we can cut that guy if they become, you know, you haven't invested the capital that would make it impossible for you to, in a PR situation, cut the guy. So we, I need to throw more names out there. We got to jump into the wide receivers here soon. Alvin Camara out of Tennessee, he.
Mike Wright
And just. We'll pause on him real quick because there is actual first round buzz on him.
Jason Moore
I don't, I've seen him go in some first round mocks.
Mike Wright
I don't get it. I do. Well, okay, I get it as far as the athleticism, but the sample size, you have two years of him as a sophomore and a junior, 107 attempts, 103 rushing attempts. Great in the passing game. And when you watch him, he is, he is a special talent for when I'm scouting him. It was essentially, it's an all or nothing thing for him. On what I would see it was if he gets met with contact at the line of scrimmage, it's done, the play is over. But if he is moving with any kind of force or, you know, just three yards down the field catching a pass, that dude is going to give the slippery fish a run for his money.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I'll just say this really quickly on him that a lot of people I respect don't like him, don't like his film. I was surprised when I watched him. I went in with kind of a negative view already and I really liked everything I saw. You know, when I watch him and I watch Dalvin Cook just film, just, you know, what, what are they making happen? I see very, very similar players. The difference is that I don't think Kamara is going to be. I say I see the first round, but he could end up being just a satellite back in the NFL, not used as much as a rusher because of that volume.
Jason Moore
Deontay Foreman out of Texas and Samaj P. Ryan, previously mentioned out of Oklahoma. Both of those guys are on a lot of you know, day, day two boards. What do you think of Deontay Foreman and Samaj P. Ryan and how they project to the NFL and for fantasy football.
Mike Wright
What's funny is this is where these are lower level guys, but this is a split here of Jason loves Foreman. I do love Foreman. You don't have to be.
Andy Holloway
But I do.
Jason Moore
There's.
Andy Holloway
There's reasons that I do.
Mike Wright
And, and I love what I've seen from Samaj P. Ryan. I'm going to let Jason go first here and talk about Foreman.
Andy Holloway
Sure. Deontay Foreman. When, you know, when I watch him, I think he is an athletic freak. He looks like he can take a full workload in the NFL. His actual production is historically great. And you can say for whatever reason, maybe they don't stack the box enough. Maybe they. Maybe it's a product of the system. But. But other guys who don't get the box stacked and have come in that same system haven't done what Deonta threw.
Jason Moore
323 attempts, 2,028 yards and 15 touchdowns in his 2016 season.
Mike Wright
His box score, just if, you know, looking back at what he did is actually to the point where it is comical because every single game of 2016, he is well over 100 yards. And you just, you've never seen.
Jason Moore
Well, Jay Ajayi comes to mind when you look at a collegiate box score that just jumped off the page.
Mike Wright
This is not real. Right now, I feel like 6 foot.
Jason Moore
233, he's a bigger back. That adds to what Jason said about sustaining NFL workload. Just depends on that team that grabs.
Andy Holloway
That's all I saw when I watched was and I realized he doesn't catch the ball. And J.J. he did in college and he's got a fumble.
Mike Wright
So he doesn't necessarily hold on to the ball.
Andy Holloway
So there are. That's why I say I'm sorry. There are reasons to not like him, but I do think that he has the body to be an NFL back.
Jason Moore
And I was starting to picture a guy that actually, he chooses not to catch the ball. So they just keeps his arms down at his side and it just bounces off his chest like, I will not do it. No.
Mike Wright
Until he goes.
Jason Moore
No.
Andy Holloway
No. It's almost like that when you watch his film, he every play is a shotgun snap and they either hand it to him or they fake the ball to him. And then he runs forward and he. He never turns around. He's not looking for a pass. He never. He'll just go out.
Jason Moore
So. So bruiser goal line. Don't throw me in front of me. Samaj P. Ryan, give me the scoop.
Mike Wright
It's a similar situation here for. These are. These are Bruiser, you know, first and second down guys, both over 230. Well, P. Ryan, I think he can stay on the field because he. There's not a lot of. If you're looking at what he's done in the production, but he can catch the ball. I feel like he has soft enough hands and he's solid in pass protection. But the. What stands out for me for Samaj. Pain bots. That's what I'm calling him. I'm calling him the pain bot because he brings it. You watch him just mow people over. But it's his balance. He has Marshawn Lynch, Lynchian lynch, go for it. Balance where once he gets going, he is able to absorb hits and continue to move forward. And it's. It's. When I was watching all these guys, that's. I hadn't seen anyone with that balance.
Jason Moore
Any concern with collegiate production decreasing each of his last three years, both in touchdown and total yardage?
Mike Wright
I mean, it would. 2014, he was at Oklahoma. That was the year Mixon was suspended. So he was, you know, more of the main guy. And then in 2016, he was. He's coming back from an injury. He was a bit. You can see it. He's a little more sluggish, so that's possibly a negative on him.
Jason Moore
And then you've got the mixing combo in 2016 that.
Mike Wright
Well, that's what I mean. In 2016, his tape is not as special to me, but he's one of these guys that. My dream is him going to Oakland. Sorry, I'm jumping ahead to Thursday show, but.
Jason Moore
No, no, it's fine. It's fine. I mentioned a few. Look, I'm going to just drop some names out there that you're going to hear. Kareem Hunt, Jeremy McNichols, Jamal Williams, who I know Mike really likes.
Mike Wright
Yeah, Jamal Williams, sidestepper.
Jason Moore
We've got to get on to the wide receiver, so let's do that right now. Wide receivers, bringing in NFL's Matt Harmon.
Mike Wright
Wide receivers, the fantasy footballers are very excited to bring a guest on. It's been quite a while since we've had a guest on the show, and what better way to break that ice than bring on Matt harmon from the NFL dot com. How are you doing today, Mr. Harmon?
Matt Harmon
I'm good, fellas. It's good to be talking to you guys. You know, the draft is what about, is it like 10 days away now or something like that? I don't know, but it's approaching fast and I'm ready, I'm ready now at this point to just see, see what all unfolds and especially where these wide receivers land and then really get the takes going about what they might be doing in year one or even down the line for dynasty leagues through the power of recording.
Mike Wright
The draft may or may not be in like two days depending on what people are hearing this. So we'll figure. That's a great point. We'll figure all that out. But of course, if you've been listening to the show, you know that we have partnered with Matt Harmer who is the developer, the mad scientist behind reception perception. An excellent way to look at how successful a wide receiver can actually be apart from a quarterback. So Harmon, why don't you give people just the brief cliff notes of what reception perception is all about?
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Matt Harmon
So if any listeners are new to what reception perception is or has especially been hearing you guys talk about it for the last few months, what reception perception is, is it's essentially like Mike just said, it's a way to try to separate wide receiver play from other variables because I mean the wide receiver is just inherently dependent on other things for their production to accumulate, whether it be the quarterback, the quality of the throw, the quality of the protection the target actually designed to go their way, or the quarterback choosing to do that. So a lot of other metrics to evaluate wide receiver play is really noisy because it welcomes a lot of other variables in what reception perception is, is. I just look at a wide. Every single route that they run over. A six game sample for NFL players, an eight game sample for, I mean, excuse me, six game sample for college prospects, eight games for NFL players. Because that's where I've seen the data normalize and essentially just chart how often they got open on each route, what routes they run most often and essentially how often they get open against man zone press coverage, as well as some ancillary metrics like contested catch conversion rate.
Mike Wright
And of course you can check out a bunch of these guys broken down on the fantasy footballers.com Matt's done an excellent job with them and of course in the ultimate draft kit, he's going to be breaking down the pros exclusively available inside the draft kit. So let's get started at the top. Matt, we got Corey Davis is kind of heralded as the number one guy on the board. Smaller school, but it looks to be the part is Corey Davis still your number one guy?
Matt Harmon
He is still my number one guy. And the interesting part about Corey Davis's evaluation is that he hasn't done anything in the pre draft process. You know, he essentially had an injury that was going to put him out of the combine, put him out of the Senior bowl. And he's been out of sight and out of mind for a long time. And you're already starting to see the whispers now of whether NFL teams are going to be able to stomach that, especially without getting raw athletic numbers because of his inability to test and the fact that he comes from a small conference. But you look at his reception perception, he really smashed that low level of competition with the 79.3% success rate versus man coverage. That's a top three score of the last two draft classes that I've charted. The 94th percentile. It was also really successful against press coverage. And his route tree shows he can separate all over the field, deep, intermediate and short. I kind of liken him to like a Sammy Watkins type player, which I think should get people excited. It also just kind of two or.
Jason Moore
Three games a year type of.
Andy Holloway
So now we know why he has missed so much in the off season.
Matt Harmon
Yeah, actually now that you make that point, now that I'm saying that I've never thought about it that way.
Andy Holloway
Really good comp.
Matt Harmon
Right. When I juxtapose those two things together, it makes a lot of sense now. But yeah, no, I just. I think that the way Watkins separates is maybe not the most dominant, like physical big receiver. I think Corey Davis is that way. Even though he is listed, I think a few pounds heavier and a few inches taller.
Andy Holloway
What is his best attribute coming to the NFL? Corey Davis, you think, you know he's going to excel because of what.
Matt Harmon
So I think the fact that he's really solid at everything is a pretty good thing, is a pretty good way to sell it. Like, I think he has a really safe floor. But if you want to talk about his most impressive trait, I think it's that he's great at it. So he's a type of player that you could see run a lot of like slants or screens. I think that's why a lot of people compare him to like a Demaryus Thomas level player. Although I don't like that comparison just because of how dominant DT is after the catch. I think Corey Davis can be that type of player in the NFL.
Mike Wright
Let's move on to the man with the fast feed. The burner, the absolute burner, broke the record at the NFL combine for the 40 yard dash. Mr. John Ross. Will he translate? Because he's a little bit smaller, but can he translate to the pros?
Matt Harmon
Yeah, it's funny, like you say, he broke the record and I think it's.
Mike Wright
That's what people think about him is he's just really fast.
Matt Harmon
And honestly, I think that's what we should think about it because if you, it's almost like at this point, it's been so long since we've seen him break the record that it's like, yeah, yeah, John brought. John Ross broke the record. He's a fast player at the combine, but what else can he do? And it's like, well, that's really pretty cool. Like he's the fastest player ever. I think that it's almost like you can't really undersell that, you know what I mean? But if you do want to look beyond just the all world speed in his reception perception, he did show well. Again, he was above the 2 year prospect average at beating man, zone and press coverage. You see him run a lot of deep routes, of course, but you look at like the out routes, the dig routes, the curl, the comeback, those are all routes that he grades out above the prospect average, creating separation. Some impressive scores there. And I think that speaks to, yeah, he gets a lot of cushion from your PAC12 defenders because of his speed. And you know, he's not going to necessarily get that same sort of treatment at the NFL level, although he will get a lot of respect because of his speed. I think that also shows you he can sell that vertical route really well and then break off, you know, into the intermediate zone or the short zones and really pick up chunk yardage that way. So I kind of liken him more to a Ty Hilton level deep threat. Like he can go along that higher end of the archetype more than the Will Fuller or Ted Ginn version of that small speed receiver archetype.
Andy Holloway
So you see him as a better prospect than Will Fuller, who was fast coming out last year.
Matt Harmon
Without a doubt. Jason? No question in my mind. If you look at their reception perceptions last year one of Will Fuller's weakest points was his success rate versus press coverage. And John Ross is obviously smaller too. But I think a lot of times we just kind of internalize and like extrapolate size to things that, you know, a skill like a contested catch rate or a success rate versus press coverage. But technique comes into a lot of it too. And I think Ross shows much more of a balanced game than Fuller. The biggest question with Ross is injuries. And that's something that's a big elephant in the room that just like the speed can't be undersold either. Ross has had a lot of injury problems. He's also had off season surgery this year. He could easily become a what could have been player based on those injuries. But you know, that's, that's hard for me to measure.
Jason Moore
Do you view, do you view him as a player that is going to succeed better with a big one on the outside wherever he lands? Like, is he a player that, you know, because of his size and because of the nature of what he does, do you feel like he can come in and you know, Will Fuller came in, ran out of the slot a bunch last year. What is John Ross going to do? Is it going to be successful with a big guy outside or is he going to be able to come in and kind of own an offense?
Matt Harmon
These players typically don't ever become target hogs and offenses. You know, like I mentioned Ty Hilton, I think he could be that player because Hilton has, has developed that far down the small receiver, small speed receiver archetype. It just would, I don't want to cop out of the question, but it would just depend on how he develops as a pro. I can easily see though Ross being a much better real life NFL receiver and helpful to his football team than he's helpful to fantasy owners though. So that's a whole separate conversation, but I can easily see that being the case.
Mike Wright
The Offspring I'm not sure if you're familiar with the band the Offspring. Well, they had a hit track. It wasn't really a hit track, but they had a song called.
Jason Moore
But Mike knew it. It was a song.
Mike Wright
Mike knew it was a song called Cool to Hate. And this next guy reminds me of that, Mike Williams. Because lately it feels like it's become very cool to hate Mike Williams. So what's your temperature on him?
Matt Harmon
So you guys know I kind of detest ranking things. That's one of the things I don't like to do. Although I did start ranking these players for our Fantasy Hipsters podcast download on itunes. Leave us a five star rating.
Mike Wright
Nicely done.
Matt Harmon
So I did do that there and I put Williams as my wide receiver, for which I don't know if that's slanderous or whatever, but there's just another prospect that we haven't talked about that I like better than him that I'm sure we'll get into later. And if you look at Williams though, you're Right. It has become trendy to hate him a lot of players, and I wrote about this in the reception perception articles on your guys site that the thing with Williams is you see him making a lot of contested catches on, you know, draft breakdown cut ups or when you're watching games of him from the broadcast angle. And that's true. He's great on contested catches. 81% conversion rate. For me, that's a top five score over the last two years. I think then people tend to extrapolate to those players. Well, he must, you know, not get a lot of separation because he's always making those contested catches. But that's generally just a trick that your brain plays on you and fills in the information. So for me, for these players, because I get to watch them on an all 22 film and I get to chart all their routes. Excuse me if that is a humble brag, but you know, just whatever for Williams, like I kind of look for those players to just separate well enough. And Williams graded out at the 55th percentile for success rate versus man coverage. So I think that's much like an Alshon Jeffrey type of player who also, as an NFL player doesn't have dominant success rates against coverage, but they're just above the league average. So I think he can separate well enough. You know, my buddy Matt Waldman kind of compares him to a Dwayne Bowe type of player and that might give people fits.
Mike Wright
It's going to freak people out.
Andy Holloway
Dwayne Bowe had one great year.
Matt Harmon
Yeah, I mean, when Dwayne Bowe, you know, maybe he's Dwayne Bowe without the concerns about whether he's just going to kind of take years off in his career. But I think stylistically they're pretty similar in like guys that can definitely make plays the ball in the air. And then one of Bo's really good years with the, with the Andy Reid Chiefs was when they got him on slant routes a lot. And that's one of Williams outside of just the vertical routes where he can post up defenders down the field. You see him have high success rates on slants and post routes. So I think that's kind of actually pretty encouraging for his NFL prospects.
Andy Holloway
I feel like this year, Mike Williams is last year's Tyler Boyd in the sense that I know I like Tyler Boyd a lot more than you did last year, Harmon. This year I like Mike Williams, but. Yeah, fight, fight, fight. But you're a Chris Godwin guy, right? Is he the reason that Mike Williams is number four?
Matt Harmon
I Am and just to circle back to the Tyler Boyd thing too, there's another player in this draft that I would, I feel very, very similar to how I feel about Tyler Boyd last year. But we can touch on that later. But yes, Chris Godwin this year is one of my guys. I have him as my wide receiver three in this draft class above Mike Williams. Because when you look at Chris Godwin, he came out with the top score on contested catches for me over the last two draft classes at 85.7%, narrowly beating out Josh Doxton from 2016, who we know had one of the best, was just really good at winning the ball in the air. So with Godwin beating out Williams, at least being Williams equal or better on contested catches, it's then when you go into a success rate versus coverage scores that Godwin really shows out with a 73.5% success rate versus man coverage. That's at the 76th percentile over the last two years. Above average against press, above average against zone coverage. Really his separation scores, he has above average separation scores on all routes except the straight go route. So to me, and he also smashed the combine. He's really done himself some favors in the pre draft process. I love Chris Godwin. I think he's a complete player. He does everything well and he's one of my favorite wide receivers in this class.
Mike Wright
Do you got Chris Godwin as a sneaky day one guy or is he most likely to fall to day two or a little bit lower?
Matt Harmon
So when we started, the funny thing is like when we started this process back before, you know, the combine or the Senior bowl or anything, when I'm going through and charting these players, which is a lot like the during the NFL playoffs or you know, the end of college football season, I see on a lot of places that he's like a third to fourth round pick. And then I go in and chart his games and he's just much, much better than that. And since then I've heard from a pretty reliable source that some teams have round one grades on him. Maybe he's a candidate for like a team like the Steelers in the back half of the first round who've had him on a pre draft visit. But more likely than not I expect him to go in the second round. I would be pretty shocked if he falls to round three.
Andy Holloway
All right, so you know, the NFL drafts coming up, every team is going to be watching, every player is going to be watching, you know, wanting to see what their team does. I want to know who is the Guy that if you are a super fan of an NFL team, when your team drafts this guy, you're going to go, no, no, they've made a mistake. I want you to make a lot of people unhappy days from now. Who is that player?
Matt Harmon
Well, with all of these guys, you know, it just depends on where they get drafted. But a player like, what round your team decides to take that, take that tumble.
Andy Holloway
No. Who's going to bust, who's going to be terrible. Right.
Matt Harmon
One player who I don't, I don't see meeting expectations as a guy, Dede Westbrook, who is the last player that I profiled for the fantasy footballers. He had the worst success rate versus press coverage score over the last two years at 33.3%. I don't see him as somebody that can line up on the outside and win. Even when you saw him make vertical plays at Oklahoma, it was against a lot of like Big 12 defenses. It offered him a lot of space. He didn't have high success rates on almost any route. I think he can maybe be a player that's successful like after the catch, but. But not only is his reception perception poor, he also has a lot of red flags in general in terms of off field concerns. He is an older prospect. He's had some injury histories. He's also £180, less than £180, so he can easily be somebody that just doesn't hold up to the NFL level. He's someone that I would be concerned about as well as a player like, I think if you take like Malachi Dupree from LSU, who I didn't write about for you guys, but I have in my database and there's a reason I didn't write about him. There's just not a lot good to say. So there are some players from bigger schools that like, they have bigger names. They've been on the scene for a while in this year that I think are disappointing NFL prospects. But then there are guys from smaller schools that I think you should be excited if your team takes.
Jason Moore
Let me ask you kind of the opposite question here. And we obviously, we get tons and tons of questions of people who are sitting there in their rookie drafts and saying, who do I target with this pick? And you know, so much up to now is, okay, we got to wait and see where these guys, where these guys land to determine that. Now for you, is there a perfect marriage out there? Is there some sort of this player to this team? If it works out this way that you're looking forward to or that you would say is the combination of NFL and fantasy success or is there something that you're zoning in on and saying, hey, I'd love to see this happen?
Matt Harmon
Yeah, I think Carolina has a lot of opportunity in their, in their wide receiver core.
Mike Wright
Right now they're drafting Leonard4Net, Matt. Everyone knows that.
Matt Harmon
Oh God, I hope they draft Christian McCaffrey at 8th overall if the God please. Yeah, that would be great. But I think in general this draft is going to be really offensive focus for the Panthers because they've talked about evolving their offense, but they've done nothing to really do that in the off season. In terms of player additions, you know, they lost Ted Ginn. I think John Ross would be a fantastic fit, but I don't see him falling to the second round and I don't see him being the pick at 8th overall. Like I said, I think they're zeroing in on McCaffrey or Leonard Fournette there. If they draft a player like Carlos Henderson who is great in reception perception, obviously played at a lower level of competition, but he smashed all the success rate versus coverage scores, which is what you want to see from a lower level competition Player also was above average in contested catch conversion rate despite being a smaller player at 76%. But really what makes him special is his ability in space. He broke multiple tackles on 39% of his in space attempts, which I chart as plays. That a player has an opportunity to break a tackle 39% beats the second place score of 22% by miles and miles. So you can see he's just special in the open field like that. If a team like Carolina that has a lot of opportunity in the receiving core takes Carlos Henderson in the second or third round, that's great.
Andy Holloway
Really.
Matt Harmon
Any team that takes him, I think he has opportunity to get on the field right away, which if you're not a first round pick, that's just how you ingratiate yourself to a team very quickly, make yourself an asset right away and get a lot of rope at that point. So he's somebody that I think every team should be monitoring.
Mike Wright
And how about Mr. Juju Juju Smith Schuster out of USC? There's a lot of the people on the Twitters, they want him on their fantasy teams. Are you trying to look to draft him if you're in a rookie draft?
Matt Harmon
So he's that player that I mentioned as kind of like we found him. Yeah, exactly. How I feel about, like how I felt about Tyler Boyd last year. That and I wrote about this extensively in juju Smith's evaluation for you guys was that I don't ever pitch reception perception as like the end all, be all metric. Like if a player fails in my metrics, that means he's going to be bad. I mean, I think that would be ridiculous and I'd caution your readers against or your listeners against following anybody that claims that about their methodology. What reception perception does, I think is contextualize a player's play. So much like Tyler Boyd last year, juju Smith shows up really well on metrics that do like age adjusted production or really production heavy type of metrics. Especially because he's like I said, he's not. I don't even think he's gonna be 21 until like November of this football season. So he's a super young player, but his reception perception is really poor, much like Tyler Boyd's was last year. So I think that what that goes to show you is that it's just about again expectations. And I think these players, both Boyd and juju, will be successful NFL assets. But I don't know that they have the ceilings of being like top two wide receivers in their offense or being a player that, that any team should want to funnel 120 targets to. And therefore I don't really ever see them being fantasy assets unless their teams are kind of in a tough spot and have to force opportunity their way.
Andy Holloway
All right, Zay Jones, Cooper Cup, Ishmael Zamora. Rank those three.
Matt Harmon
I mean the best, the best talent of all of them is Zamora and I think it's pretty clear. But he has off field concerns that will likely slip him to day three or out of the draft altogether. So who knows there. But if you talk about just his contested catch conversion rate is great. He's great after the catch. He's someone that could be like a Martavis Bryant that you know, obviously is a rocky off field Persona but, but great if he gets to the right spot on the third day of the NFL draft. And then I like Zay Jones a bit more than Cooper Cup. You know Zay Jones, I talked about it being super confusing to me because his combine was great. He's had a great pre draft process but at East Carolina he was really only used on like three routes. Slant screen digs and curls, just short intermediate area routes. I think he's like a big slot receiver that can play a little bit of flanker, but more so is just a complimentary asset. And then Cooper Cup I've kind of now that I think that the tide has turned and his stock is kind of no longer out of control. I like him a little bit better as probably the guy with the best hands in the class, whether it's in contested spaces or just regular catching the pass, but also below average against press and man coverage. I think he is definitely kind of like a poor man's Jarvis Landry, Jordan Matthews type player. So take that for what you will.
Jason Moore
All right.
Mike Wright
And we'll get you out of here on this last question. Is there a particular day three prospect that our listeners should just keep an ear out? Because I mean not everyone's heavily following the draft on day three. But that name that it, once it goes across, perk up and see where he landed.
Matt Harmon
Yeah, I'll give you two excellent Taewon Taylor. He might go, you know, round three, I think, but he's someone that we should be watching as a player that had a strong contested catch conversion rate despite being under 6ft and also was above the class average, had a top five score in this class against man coverage and also against press coverage too. So he's someone we should be paying attention to. And then a guy, Ryan Switzer out of unc. And this one's especially pertinent for your listeners because obviously they're here for fantasy football. Switzer is much like a Jameson Crowder from a couple of years ago in the draft that he's a good player. He's just not someone that is ever going to be highly valued because he's an undersized slot receiver. But Switzer above average against man coverage, great score against zone coverage, is much like I said with Crowder as a slot receiver, but can win in the intermediate route. So if much like Crowder, he goes to a team on the third day of the NFL draft because like I said, these guys just always fall. If he goes to a team that has a high volume passing offense with a stable quarterback and a stable coaching staff, he could easily be somebody by his second year, the year that is catching 60 to 70 passes that you get at a stupid discount in your rookie draft or in redraft a few years from now. So that's someone to certainly keep in mind.
Jason Moore
Well, we will not have much longer to speculate. We appreciate you coming on Matt. You can find Matt on Twitter attharmonbyb for all the hot takes, many of them vegetable related.
Mike Wright
Oh, those are the best.
Matt Harmon
The best takes.
Jason Moore
Not the most delicious takes, not the best take.
Matt Harmon
That is a matter of opinion.
Jason Moore
Very subjective. Yeah, you should. The vegetable perception route, we won't get into that but thank you very much for joining us, Matt. And you can read about all of these guys and I think there's 15 full profiles on the fantasy footballers.com youm can click on the reception perception button and get in there and dig deep into the charts and everything that Matt has broken down for us. And like we said earlier, all of his reception perception charting of the NFL top 50 wide receivers will be in the ultimate draft kit. So Matt, thanks a lot for coming on.
Matt Harmon
Oh, my pleasure, guys. And thank you for giving me the opportunity to not only talk about these players here, but at a big platform with your. With your guys site. This has been an awesome partnership so far and looking forward to the draft kit because it's gonna be a lot of cool stuff for people to dig into.
Jason Moore
Definitely gonna be a fun year. Take care. Enjoy the draft.
Matt Harmon
Thanks, fellas.
Jason Moore
All right, thanks to Matt Harmon. Or as Mike said during one point of the interview, for no good reason, Matt Harmer.
Mike Wright
And yeah, when we're in the interview.
Jason Moore
Even notice that you.
Mike Wright
Oh no. Oh no. I noticed you two laughing.
Jason Moore
We were laughing hysterically and I had.
Mike Wright
No idea what I had messed up.
Andy Holloway
Matt Harmer.
Jason Moore
Matt Harmer.com's Matt Harmer. All right, guys, wide receivers.
Mike Wright
Sorry, Matt.
Jason Moore
Exhaustive wide receiver information. Love it. You're going to get the full breakdown of all the NFL whiteouts from Matt Harmon in the ultimate draft, the 2017 ultimate draft kit. But right now we're talking tight ends.
Andy Holloway
Tight ends.
Mike Wright
Some very, very exciting tight end prospects. To me, coming.
Andy Holloway
Great draft class for tight ends. I mean, this is the best draft class in all memory. I mean, I can't remember a draft class that had several really legitimate fantasy football prospects.
Jason Moore
So I'm just going to throw the three big names out there and let you guys talk about them. Because look, 15 minutes doesn't go by in this office where Jason isn't watching film or talking about David Njoku, but O.J. howard, the big name, David Njoku out of Miami. And then you. Yeah, and then Evan Ingram. Evan Ingram, who's a just athletic monster. You know, O.J. howard has the most notoriety of this group. Odd usage in Alabama. But I think everybody has seen through that usage and knows what exists with O.J. howard. I've heard in the fantasy community all over the place, people really like envisioning Howard with different jerseys on and what he might be able to do, whether it's, you know, New York, you know, all over the place. So who's your favorite? Is it Howard? Mike?
Mike Wright
As far as a guy that you know this Howard's coming in the league. Howard is playing for 10 plus years. He's ridiculous. I mean the size is unbelievable. He's 66251. He ran a 40 yard dash in 4.5 seconds at 251 pounds.
Jason Moore
Said not a, that's a Fournette beating time or the same time as Fournette.
Mike Wright
Identified but much, much heavier. Oh, I know he is, he is a big boy. Absolutely outrageous. You mentioned it was unfortunate that we didn't really get to see him unleashed unleash the beast in Alabama's offense. But he's, he's so well rounded. That's so, it's exciting that the, the ceiling exists for him to be a dominant pass catching tight end. But you also know you have longevity here if you're, if you're looking at taking him at the back of the first play.
Jason Moore
Is that vertical number right? The 30 inch verta?
Mike Wright
Yeah, I think so.
Jason Moore
So that's, that's significantly smaller than Ninjoku or Ingram. Obviously he's got the height advantage at 6 6.
Andy Holloway
But yeah, I mean we're coming to Thursday's NFL draft and you're going to be watching it. And if you have a team that you root for, which I assume you do, you want O.J. howard on your NFL team, he will be a difference maker for your roster. For me, he's not my number one fantasy football tight end. While he has the talent to completely dominate, he's got great hands. Like if he goes to a team that uses him, runs him on routes, he can be like you said, his ceiling super high. But he's such a good blocker that it's hard to say, hey, you should just be running routes for us. You know, he needs to be helping the team. So for me that's where I think his ceiling might be high. But my expectation is that he will not be the same fantasy football. You know, he only had three touchdowns. I realized they had other weapons, they didn't use them. But still he only had three touchdowns in his entire senior year.
Jason Moore
Seven total for four years.
Andy Holloway
Right. So you compare that to my guy, David and Joku. And when I watch, look, David and Joku I think is a fine blocker. Some people say he's not a good blocker. I think that's only because they're comparing him to O.J. howard who mauls guys all the way down the field. David Njoku, he's got such a great character. His story, his family comes from like 100 brothers and sisters. That are all doctors and scientists. It's unbelievable. So he's a smart dude. He's an athletic freak. And when I watch him run routes, he's so hard to take down. After the catch, I mean, play after play, I watch him. He'll get a screen and a guy comes and tries to tackle him, he rips his leg out and goes for a touchdown.
Jason Moore
Rips it right out.
Andy Holloway
Out of the grip, out of the socket.
Jason Moore
Okay. But no, I mean, either way, I.
Andy Holloway
Think David and Joku. I mean, if he goes to the Giants. Yeah, I love that.
Mike Wright
The ev. We mentioned Evan Ingram, and I'm throwing.
Jason Moore
In Bucky Hodges here as well out of Virginia Tech.
Mike Wright
These guys are off the charts athletically. Evan Ingram. The comp to him is Jordan Reed, which is a tremendous comp because the guy is only 63234. That's not the normal computer size for a tight end.
Jason Moore
I thought you meant, like, have they have the same health insurance?
Mike Wright
No, no, no, no.
Jason Moore
Okay.
Mike Wright
Their premiums are really, really high. No, it's. His. His size is not the typical tight end. His blocking doesn't exist.
Andy Holloway
No, it's. It's. It's horrendous.
Mike Wright
I will call it not the best.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, you. You wrote down that you thought it was okay, and I just tried to see it be okay, and I could not. I mean, he's. He is. He's a wide receiver, but they.
Mike Wright
That's. That's how they used him. I mean, 65 receptions his senior year, and they line him up in the slot frequently. And he's running these Jordan Reed type routes where it's. It's not just fly. He's. He's running a dig route eight yards in. So he just. He reminds me of a guy who, if you want to make him part of the focal point of the passing attack, he has that built into him. But I know when we were breaking it down, Jason, you preferred Bucky.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I mean, if I was an NFL franchise, I would be grabbing Bucky Hodges over Evan Ingram. I think he had everything except for the speed that Evan Ingram had. He's a little bit more raw, but he also has. I mean, Bucky Hodges is 6'six257, and I think can develop into a good blocker. And he was great downfield, and he runs the same type of routes. So I like Bucky Hodges more than Evan Ingram.
Mike Wright
Bucky Hodges, my favorite part of his tape is when they line him up outside and he just becomes a downfield blocker because they put him on these.
Andy Holloway
DBs, the little tiny corners.
Mike Wright
And he's 257, so I mean, he's.
Jason Moore
Not a good feeling if you're a little db.
Andy Holloway
He takes him out of the back of the end zone. He's like running them into the hall, down, just blocking them forever.
Mike Wright
It's very fun.
Andy Holloway
My favorite part of him is his name, though. I mean, Bucky Hodges. That's an NFL tight end name for a decade.
Jason Moore
Yeah, Just like Jake Butt.
Andy Holloway
Quarterbacks. We are adults.
Mike Wright
No, we're not.
Jason Moore
Someone gave us a three star iTunes review because of the voice of public opinion. Oh, but, but you can.
Andy Holloway
You make me sad.
Jason Moore
Yeah, they're saying it's a five star show, but the voice of public opinion was annoying.
Andy Holloway
Oh, man, I'm sorry.
Jason Moore
I found that offensive.
Mike Wright
I find it highly accurate.
Jason Moore
All right, let's talk quarterbacks. Guys, I've got some strong opinions at the quarterback position. I know. Look, every year, it doesn't really matter how good the quarterbacks are, they're going to go in the first round. There's going to be a few because the NFL teams are desperate for quarterback play. And we understand that. And we've seen it year over year. You see how high guys like Christian Ponder and Blake and Gabbard go. The names.
Andy Holloway
Whoops.
Jason Moore
E.J. manuel. I mean, Jamarcas. Yeah, I mean, this is a, this is a tradition, right? You're going to have some flops at the quarterback position. The question this year when we dig in is, look, we're a fantasy football show. So for one, is there a guy that can come out, establish themselves over the first couple of years and become a player? I mean, look, look, last year, Carson Wentz, by all intensive purposes, great year.
Mike Wright
Not good fantasy year.
Jason Moore
No, no, that's my, that's really my point is that.
Mike Wright
Gotcha.
Jason Moore
Great year. Met expectations or exceeded them from a team perspective. From a fantasy perspective. We're hoping that happens this year. Yeah, we're hoping that with the weapons and with the evolution of the player, it happens this year. You had a year where 1, 2 went, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. They weren't reliable fantasy options that year.
Andy Holloway
Since 2000, Carson Wentz had the seventh best rookie fantasy season. So, like, you can't ask for more than that. And it was still irrelevant for fantasy. So none of these guys are anywhere near as good as Carson Wentz, in my opinion, of the four major guys. And, you know, if you're, if you're talking about this year, forget about it. No one's coming in and helping your franchise this year in my opinion.
Jason Moore
So I, you know, look, we can be here and we can pretend to be, you know, scouting experts.
Andy Holloway
We're not.
Jason Moore
But I think that the best goal here is to say is there any of these guys that we believe could develop into. And I'm not even going to go as far as just say Carson Wentz. I'm saying can these guys develop on a roster into a 10 year starter, into an Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, even you know, an Andrew Luck type of guy. Now the guys I want to bring up are the potential first round guys. Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and then DeSean Kaiser. Those are the big names. And you can throw Davis Webb in there if you want as well. He transferred out of Texas Tech where Mahomes was and went to California and really put up impressive numbers in his final season there in the PAC 12. For me, I like Mitch Trubisky. I think Trubisky is the most NFL ready quarterback. I love the size, I love the accuracy, I love the smarts. And I think when you see a player there's two sides to the one year starter argument. There is the not enough experience so it gives a coach hesitation. There's also the room to grow argument because what is this guy and what can he become with even more experience? He had such an impressive year at North Carolina. What I love is that 30 to 6 TD to interception ratio. I don't want this guy coming in. That's my concern with a guy like Mahomes who I think has incredible arm talent. But is he going to throw 18, 19, 20 interceptions and Watson who's same.
Mike Wright
Got high levels of interception.
Jason Moore
Yeah, I mean for me if I were to rank him, it'd be Trubisky and then I think I would take the chance on my homes. Then I'd go Kaiser and then I'd go Watson to round out my four. And now I'll just pass the mic.
Andy Holloway
Sure. For me Kaiser would be my number one. I think he has the best combination of potential and level headed maturity because you know Mahomes has the highest potential. Right. Everything it seems like these four guys you kind of have sliding scales. Right. Like Deshaun Watson has the least upside potential but the lowest floor Mahomes is.
Jason Moore
I mean he could have the most potential. I don't know if that's a kind of a.
Andy Holloway
His arm is unbelievable. Yeah, his physical traits are things that make, you know, NFL GM's drool. But I don't think that he has the experience, the, you know, the level headed mind of an NFL quarterback to succeed. Whereas when I look at Kaiser, I mean you talk about the one year, right? If Kaiser had come out after 2015, he might have been a top two pick or three with you know, after wins. Kaiser, there's plenty of knocks on him, right? There was a chance that he didn't want to keep playing football. And when I, when I'm a gm, all I care about for my NFL quarterback is like I don't want them to have a girlfriend, I want them to be married to football. And so that's a, that's a big red flag. I don't love anyone in this class but what I see with Kaiser is strong arm, can make every throw, huge body and a level headed mind. I think he's, he's got everything I need to say. You want a future Andy Dalton. Kaiser's my, my pick. Yeah.
Mike Wright
Kaiser's also my favorite quarterback of these guys. What's interesting for quarterbacks is it's so hard to, to scout guys to who's going to translate to be a good NFL quarterback because it's not, it's not like a running back or wide receiver where you can look at these, how do they do at the combine, how athletic are they? And that can really help factor into, you know, who's going to be able to separate at the NFL level. Meanwhile, you guys, you have guys like Mahomes senior year, put up over 5,000 passing yards.
Andy Holloway
He had a game over 800 yards.
Mike Wright
And you have Kaiser who was never above three. I mean you have completely different offenses.
Jason Moore
There's 700, but yeah, it's.
Mike Wright
Well it was 800 total. I thought you were saying rushing yards.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Mike Wright
So it's just very, very difficult. But of what I've seen, I like Jason pretty much made all my points of Kaiser's my favorite guy of this.
Jason Moore
You guys have read the parcels rules for quarterbacks before. Have you guys either, either read that?
Mike Wright
I think I have. Give them to me.
Jason Moore
He's come out and he's talked about this before about what he looks for in a quarterback. And so for him it was, he must be a senior because you need time and maturity to develop into a good professional quarterback. Needs to be a graduate, somebody who takes his responsibilities seriously. Maybe that's a little, you know, get off my lawn, old school, three year starter. You need to make sure his success wasn't basically a one time thing if, but he was the guy for a.
Andy Holloway
Period of time if the next one is Throws slowly, then you've got a home run. Here you're describing Deshaun Watson.
Jason Moore
He must have at least 23 wins because big passing numbers like Mahomes must come in the context of winning ball games. That is. Now it's interesting when you look at those colleges change. So you look at, there are, you know, Romo Manning, Brees, Wilson Rivers, Palmer and then Eli manning. Those were 4 for 4 on those points for the parcels things. But you have had guys like Cam Newton who was only a one of four of those. Seems like Aaron Rodgers was only two of the four of those.
Andy Holloway
But it, Watson fits all four, right?
Mike Wright
He's not a senior. Oh, he graduated because he graduated early.
Jason Moore
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Andy Holloway
But he did, he was a three year starter.
Jason Moore
Right, right. So and I think people, if they're listening and we need to, we need to wrap it up before we get to the, get out of here and then get to the draft on Thursday in the draft show. But those sleeps in, get those sleeps started. You know, I think people are surprised maybe that Deshaun Watson's name didn't come up more in this conversation. And I think, I think that's just when you look at Deshaun Watson and you look at Mitch Trubisky, you see the exact inverse of kind of how the college game in the NFL game works. And you saw this with Tim Tebow, Heisman winner. Now Watson didn't win the Heisman, but he was twice a finalist, was a winner, was great. And I'm not taking anything away from the person or player of Deshaun Watson as a collegiate athlete. But you contrast him with a guy like Mitchell Trubisky who plays 13 games only one season in North Carolina, but has all the physical tools that translate to the pros and you see the, you know, teams, you know, Trubisky is going to get drafted before Deshaun Watson and the odds of Deshaun Watson being successful in the NFL seem a lot lower to me than Trubisky. So it's unfortunate that that's the way it works. But you know, I was talking about.
Mike Wright
It'S hard to find metrics on these guys and this, I was, Matt Kelly was talking about this from, from Roto underworld. He was saying that throw velocity, which is you can track that. That's an easily, easily trackable stat. DeSean Watson maxed out this season at 49. And there's no, not nobody there's in the NFL guys who throw under 50, Tyrod Taylor, Mike Glennon, those are the two starting quarterbacks who their velocity is not over 50 miles an hour. So there is not a great track record of guys. I mean that sound, it sounds ridiculous like well, 49 or 51. But when you're throwing an out route, that is a major difference for a defender to be able to jump that route.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. And yeah, the distance the ball travels. We read an article on that. It's just, it's night and day. And then you combine that with his accuracy problems where he doesn't have accuracy mistakes that are all repeated. It's not constantly overthrowing guys or constantly under throwing. It's just kind of sometimes is right on point, sometimes it's behind, sometimes it's ahead. Those are scary things for me. When I look at college quarterbacks, I want an accurate guy, not a Logan Thomas.
Jason Moore
The tight end.
Andy Holloway
Yes, the now tight end.
Jason Moore
All right, that does it for today's show. Hopefully you've got these names in your head. You're ready for the draft. Get hyped. We'll get you some some more draft and team previews on Thursday as well as some mailbag from the Foot Clan and all the news and notes. Anything we missed, anything we we didn't get over the weekend recording this show a couple days early, so.
Andy Holloway
And our livestream is coming up on Thursday as well, right before the draft.
Jason Moore
Oh my gosh.
Andy Holloway
For the Join the footers.
Jason Moore
I guess I like football, Mike. Have a good trip.
Mike Wright
Thank you. And check out Fantasy Jocks. The if you want to pick up a trophy, the promo code is footballers.
Andy Holloway
Hey, goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.
Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - The Rookie Show, Fantasy Outlook, Draft Day Foods
Release Date: April 25, 2017
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
Guest: Matt Harmon from NFL.com
The Fantasy Footballers kick off the episode with their trademark enthusiasm as they emphasize the imminent arrival of the NFL Draft. With only "two sleeps away" from the draft day, the hosts express their excitement and readiness to delve into detailed draft preparations.
Andy Holloway remarks at [00:37]:
“Two days away from the NFL draft.”
Jason Moore adds humorously at [00:44]:
“Two days, my friends. You know what that is? Two days. That's Jason's 40 time. Two days.”
The hosts highlight the importance of the draft as the "final shoe to drop" of the offseason, signaling the transition from pre-draft analysis to actionable strategies for the upcoming fantasy season.
A lighthearted yet essential segment discusses the quintessential foods every fantasy draft party should feature. The conversation centers around two main options: the legendary sausage dip and abundant pizza.
He outlines a simple recipe involving Philly cream cheese, Ro Tel mild, and sweet Italian sausage, emphasizing its ease and deliciousness.
Andy Holloway counters with his preference at [04:41]:
“I'm going to go pizza... you gotta have the pizza because you need to be able to run, grab a slice, come back...”
Jason Moore concurs humorously with at [05:15]:
“One slice per pick.”
This segment underscores the blend of practicality and enjoyment that food brings to a draft day party, ensuring that participants remain energized and engaged throughout the event.
The hosts shift focus to recent NFL news, particularly the release of the NFL schedule and its implications for fantasy football.
Jason Moore discusses Alex Smith's schedule at [07:11]:
“Alex Smith has the most prime time games of anybody. And that is not a joke.”
Andy Holloway elaborates on the fluctuating nature of team defenses:
“Strength of schedule is based on last year... Once we've got enough data of 2017, those matchups really start to matter.” [08:24]
They caution against over-relying on last year's strength of schedule, citing examples like the New York Giants' fluctuating defensive prowess over consecutive seasons.
A substantial portion of the episode is dedicated to analyzing the 2017 rookie running back class. The discussion highlights key prospects such as Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Joe Mixon, evaluating their potential impact on both NFL teams and fantasy leagues.
Mike Wright praises Christian McCaffrey at [10:52]:
“I really like Christian McCaffrey. I think that he is an all-around guy... he could be a top five type of player immediately.”
Andy Holloway extols McCaffrey's versatility at [13:04]:
“He's certainly the most well-rounded. Nobody can... catch the ball as well, he moves.”
Jason Moore expresses admiration for Leonard Fournette at [15:00]:
“Fournette's big guy, literally, figuratively, gigantic. I just love everything about him.”
The hosts debate the potential workload and offensive roles of these backs, considering factors like team fit, offensive line strength, and coaching philosophies. Concerns about Christian McCaffrey's usage and Leonard Fournette's ability to sustain a high volume are discussed in depth.
Bringing in Matt Harmon from NFL.com, the hosts delve into the innovative "Reception Perception" metric—a tool designed to evaluate wide receivers by isolating their performance from external factors like quarterback play and defensive coverage.
Corey Davis:
John Ross:
Mike Williams:
Chris Godwin:
Zay Jones, Cooper Kupp, Ishmael Zamora:
Deontay Foreman and Samaj P. Ryan:
Reception Perception allows for a nuanced analysis of receivers, emphasizing route efficiency and contested catch success over traditional metrics like total receptions or yards.
Harmon encourages fantasy managers to consider these metrics when evaluating wide receivers to uncover undervalued players or identify potential busts.
The discussion shifts to the tight end position, heralded as one of the best in recent memory with several promising prospects.
Jason Moore lists top candidates at [55:46]:
“David Njoku out of Miami, O.J. Howard, and Evan Ingram.”
Mike Wright highlights O.J. Howard’s physical attributes at [56:57]:
“He ran a 40-yard dash in 4.5 seconds at 251 pounds... incredible size.”
Andy Holloway contrasts Howard with David Njoku, emphasizing Njoku’s route-running ability and athleticism despite being an excellent blocker. [59:02]
Matt Harmon evaluates prospects:
Andy Holloway humorously notes [62:10]:
“Bucky Hodges. That's an NFL tight end name for a decade.”
This segment underscores the balance tight ends must strike between blocking and receiving, with each prospect offering different strengths that appeal to various NFL offensive schemes and, consequently, fantasy strategies.
Though not the central focus, the hosts briefly touch upon quarterback prospects, debating their fantasy relevance due to the historical volatility of the position.
Jason Moore expresses skepticism about quarterbacks' immediate fantasy impact [63:10]:
“For one, is there a guy that can come out, establish themselves over the first couple of years and become a player?”
Andy Holloway counters with historical context at [63:57]:
“Since 2000, Carson Wentz had the seventh best rookie fantasy season. So, like, you can't ask for more than that.”
Jason Moore discusses Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, and DeSean Watson, emphasizing their varying potentials and concerns about interception rates and developmental readiness. [64:18]
Mike Wright and Andy Holloway debate the physical attributes and readiness of these quarterbacks, highlighting the difficulty in predicting quarterback success based solely on metrics like throw velocity. [65:51]
Wrapping up the episode, the hosts promote upcoming content, including draft recaps, team overviews, and a livestream event scheduled for Thursday.
Jason Moore invites listeners to explore Matt Harmon’s detailed analyses on reception perception through their website and mentions the inclusion of these insights in the ultimate draft kit. [54:09]
The hosts reiterate their excitement for the draft and encourage listeners to join their fantasy football community for ongoing support and expert advice. [72:50]
Andy Holloway at [13:04]:
“He's the most well-rounded. Nobody can... catch the ball as well, he moves.”
Mike Wright at [57:17]:
“He ran a 40-yard dash in 4.5 seconds at 251 pounds.”
Jason Moore at [34:06]:
“He’s really solid at everything... liken him to a Sammy Watkins type player.”
Matt Harmon at [40:31]:
“He’s great on contested catches [81%].”
Draft Preparations: With the NFL Draft just two days away, the Fantasy Footballers emphasize the importance of being prepared with both strategy and essential draft day foods.
Rookie Running Backs: Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette emerge as frontrunners, each offering distinct advantages in versatility and workload potential. Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon are also key prospects, though concerns about workload distribution and off-field issues are noted.
Wide Receiver Insights: Reception Perception is introduced as a valuable metric for evaluating wide receivers, with Corey Davis and Chris Godwin highlighted as top prospects. John Ross’s exceptional speed and Mike Williams’s contested catch ability are also discussed, alongside cautionary notes on potential busts.
Tight End Talent: The tight end draft class boasts several high-potential players, each with unique strengths. O.J. Howard, David Njoku, Evan Ingram, and Bucky Hodges are analyzed for their suitability in both NFL systems and fantasy leagues.
Quarterback Considerations: Quarterback prospects are viewed with skepticism regarding their immediate fantasy impact, though athletes like Mitchell Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes are acknowledged for their potential long-term value.
Engaging Community: The episode underscores the value of engaging with the Fantasy Footballers' community and utilizing their resources, such as the Reception Perception tool and the ultimate draft kit, to gain a competitive edge.
This episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast serves as a comprehensive guide for fantasy managers gearing up for the 2017 NFL Draft, offering in-depth analyses of key rookie prospects, innovative evaluation metrics, and strategic insights to optimize draft success.