Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - The TRUTH About Fantasy QB's in 2016

Summary

Fantasy Football Podcast Episode Summary: "The TRUTH About Fantasy QB's in 2016"

Podcast Information:

• Title: Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast
• Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
• Episode: Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - The TRUTH About Fantasy QB's in 2016
• Release Date: January 24, 2017

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Introduction and Setting the Stage

The episode begins with a casual discussion among the hosts and guest David Johnson, a running back for the Arizona Cardinals, who joins the conversation from Nashville, Tennessee ([00:00]-[01:37]). They set the date as January 18th, nearing the Super Bowl, and briefly touch upon the anticipation surrounding the championship game.

Weekend Game Highlights and MVP Discussions

Super Bowl Implications and Key Games: David Johnson and Andy Holloway initiate the discussion by reflecting on the recent Steelers vs. Patriots game, highlighting Tom Brady's hallmark performance:

• David Johnson ([02:25]-[02:45]): Praises Brady’s ability, stating, "That's why he's Tom Brady."
• Andy Holloway ([02:48]-[03:06]): Emphasizes the significance of Brady’s leadership, "And the Patriots have another chance now. A fifth Super Bowl."

MVP Candidates: Rodgers vs. Ryan: The conversation shifts to Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan as the season's standout quarterbacks:

• Andy Holloway ([03:06]-[03:53]): Rodgers is lauded for his consistency and performance, noting, "He had six top two performances over the year."
• Jason Moore ([03:53]-[04:26]): Discusses Matt Ryan's MVP potential, considering his statistics and the offensive line's impact.

Player Analysis and Rankings

Aaron Rodgers: The Consistent Performer The hosts delve deep into Aaron Rodgers' performance over the past years, establishing him as a fantasy football cornerstone:

• David Johnson ([11:45]-[12:15]): Reviews Rodgers’ historical rankings, illustrating his consistent top-tier finishes.
• Andy Holloway ([12:04]-[13:14]): Highlights Rodgers' 2016 season stats: "40 touchdowns, 4400 yards, four rushing touchdowns," and his high consistency with "12 top 10 performances out of 16 games."

Matt Ryan: MVP but Potential Regression Matt Ryan's impressive 2016 season is analyzed, balancing his high performance against possible future regression:

• Jason Moore ([16:39]-[17:06]): Considers the potential impact of offensive coordinator changes on Ryan’s future performance.
• Andy Holloway ([17:46]-[19:02]): Despite acknowledging possible regression, he maintains Ryan’s high ranking due to improved team personnel and offensive dynamics.

Drew Brees: Stable yet Overlooked Drew Brees is recognized for maintaining high performance despite challenges:

• David Johnson ([23:30]-[24:12]): Comments on Brees' stable rankings despite team changes, "There’s no third best quarterback."
• Jason Moore ([23:13]-[24:12]): Points out Brees' consistency, emphasizing his reliable yardage and touchdown rates.

Andrew Luck: Rising Star with Caution Andrew Luck is positioned as a high-potential quarterback with strategic drafting considerations:

• Andy Holloway ([25:22]-[26:00]): Endorses Luck’s value, suggesting drafting him in the fifth round due to his affordability and potential.
• Jason Moore ([25:15]-[26:00]): Expresses optimism about Luck’s future performance, aligning with Luck’s increasing role and team improvement.

Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott: Value Picks The hosts discuss Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott as undervalued quarterbacks with solid performances:

• Jason Moore ([29:40]-[30:22]): Defends Cousins’ fantasy value despite public skepticism, highlighting his late-round availability.
• Andy Holloway ([32:05]-[33:33]): Advocates for Prescott’s consistency and potential, forecasting his rise with continued team enhancements.

Matthew Stafford and Tyrod Taylor: Inconsistent Yet Valuable Matthew Stafford and Tyrod Taylor are examined for their fluctuating performances and future prospects:

• Andy Holloway ([34:00]-[36:03]): Analyzes Stafford’s season impacted by injuries, suggesting potential for high value next year.
• Jason Moore ([34:00]-[36:03]): Acknowledges Stafford’s volatility but emphasizes his raw talent and future upside.

Blake Bortles and Russell Wilson: High Risk, High Reward Blake Bortles and Russell Wilson are critiqued for their inconsistent performances:

• Andy Holloway ([37:20]-[39:21]): Questions Bortles’ reliability, citing his lower performance against top defenses.
• Jason Moore ([40:43]-[42:44]): Discusses Wilson’s split performance, recognizing his potential but cautioning against early drafting.

Specific Player Insights

Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota: Emerging Talents

• Andy Holloway ([44:43]-[48:24]): Evaluates Derek Carr’s growth and Marcus Mariota’s consistency, suggesting cautious optimism for their futures.
• Jason Moore ([45:36]-[48:24]): Highlights Carr’s steady improvement and Mariota’s potential with better offensive support.

Tom Brady: Veteran Reliability Tom Brady’s role as a dependable yet potentially high-drafted quarterback is debated:

• Andy Holloway ([50:31]-[52:07]): Analyzes Brady’s performance with and without Rob Gronkowski, concluding his reliability doesn’t drastically change without him.
• David Johnson ([51:18]-[51:47]): Considers Brady’s high draft cost relative to potential performance, favoring Matt Ryan if available at a similar price.

Draft Strategies and Recommendations

Late-Round Quarterbacks: Maximizing Value The hosts advocate for targeting quarterbacks in the later rounds to maximize draft efficiency:

• Andy Holloway ([06:49]-[15:19]): Encourages drafting elite quarterbacks like Rodgers and Brady in later rounds to prioritize other positions early.
• Jason Moore ([10:10]-[15:19]): Emphasizes the replaceable nature of quarterbacks, recommending late-round pickups to balance team composition.

Balancing Consistency and Potential: Strategies revolve around selecting quarterbacks who offer both reliability and upside without compromising draft picks needed for other key positions:

• David Johnson ([25:04]-[26:00]): Suggests targeting quarterbacks like Andrew Luck who offer high performance at a reasonable draft cost.
• Jason Moore ([30:22]-[33:33]): Advocates for selecting quarterbacks based on both past consistency and future potential, emphasizing adaptability to team changes.

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, the hosts reiterate their draft philosophies, emphasizing the importance of quarterback selection in later rounds to maintain a balanced and competitive fantasy team:

• Andy Holloway ([53:44]-[55:20]): Summarizes key takeaways, recommending research and strategic drafting to capitalize on quarterback performances.
• Jason Moore ([55:00]-[55:13]): Encourages listeners to engage with their online community for ongoing support and insights.

Key Takeaways:

1. Prioritize Consistency and Value: Elite quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan provide reliable performance and should be considered high-value picks in later rounds.
2. Late-Round Strategy: Select quarterbacks in the later rounds to free up early picks for more versatile and high-impact positions like running backs and wide receivers.
3. Assess Team Dynamics: Consider team improvements, offensive line strength, and supporting cast when evaluating quarterback potential for the upcoming season.
4. Monitor Player Health and Team Changes: Injuries and coaching staff alterations significantly impact quarterback performance and fantasy value.

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway ([03:06]): "That's why he's Tom Brady."
• Jason Moore ([08:22]): "Every quarterback throws touchdowns. Every quarterback can throw for over 200 yards."
• David Johnson ([19:06]): "I will go on record and say he is a top five quarterback and that's fine."
• Andy Holloway ([51:07]): "I'll take it. Depends on how far I can get Matt Ryan to drop."

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Transcript

[David Johnson]

Hey, this is David Johnson, running back of the Arizona Cardinals, and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from the fantasyjocks.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Happy Tuesday, everybody. Welcome to the pot. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers. It's rumored. It is rumored to be Tuesday, January 24, 2017. That is merely a rumor.

[David Johnson]

We're getting near the Super Bowl.

[Andy Holloway]

Inching close to the Super Bowl. We are recording this episode on January 18th.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So congratulations to.

[Andy Holloway]

Wait. Well, yeah. You were gonna congratulate the teams or so or we'll cut it in afterwards. Press one for Atlanta Falcons. We're recording this early and we are at FSTA in Nashville, Tennessee.

[David Johnson]

Nashville, Tennessee, right now.

[Andy Holloway]

So staying near the Country Music hall of Fame. I know both of you are extreme. Extreme country fan.

[David Johnson]

Huge country fan here. I mean, growing up, I was forced to listen to it a lot.

[Andy Holloway]

Were you really?

[David Johnson]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

And I was.

[David Johnson]

That is why I do not like country.

[Andy Holloway]

You do not like country.

[Jason Moore]

I'm very excited for the barbecue that I'm probably eating as you listen to this.

[Andy Holloway]

So we're. We're doing. This is our Quarterback Truth episode. We're recording this ahead of time and so we'll. We won't have the latest news and notes.

[David Johnson]

The.

[Andy Holloway]

The very latest news and notes, but we're gonna. We're gonna hypothesize on what took place over the weekend. So I guess we should do that now. Maybe call our shots.

[David Johnson]

Yeah, go on the way forward machine and.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[David Johnson]

I'm gonna say that the dream machine.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we're just.

[David Johnson]

Those games were amazing this weekend.

[Andy Holloway]

The title games.

[David Johnson]

Oh, man.

[Andy Holloway]

Unbelievable.

[David Johnson]

Let's start with the. Let's start with the Steelers and the Patriots game because.

[Jason Moore]

Can you believe that throw that.

[David Johnson]

That's why Tom Brady. That's why.

[Andy Holloway]

That's why he's Tom Brady.

[David Johnson]

First ball, hall of Fame when the.

[Andy Holloway]

Crowd is doing what it was doing, Right?

[David Johnson]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

At that point in the game, at that point in the game, did you think he would be able to do that?

[David Johnson]

100%, I did. That's why they're going to the super bowl, right?

[Jason Moore]

He does what he does, man.

[David Johnson]

Does what he does. This is.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm just going to say, wasn't a mistake by Tomlin.

[David Johnson]

I don't think so. I give Tomlin enough respect where I think, I think he can get the job done. But I'm going to go on record and say, you don't call that foul there at the End of the game, you let them play. And I am on record that I don't think the foul should have been called.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, and now you are where you are. And the Patriots have another chance now. A fifth Super Bowl.

[David Johnson]

The scoring in Green Bay Atlanta, though, that was the story of the weekend for me.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, it's hard for me to actually pick one of the plays out because there were so many.

[Jason Moore]

It was so high, yet so low.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[David Johnson]

It was just. There are points being scored on both teams.

[Andy Holloway]

If you could have picked one of your favorite quarters of scoring was the first.

[Jason Moore]

Second quarter.

[Andy Holloway]

Second quarter for sure for me.

[David Johnson]

For me, it was the fourth. The way that they came back and made it a game. I will just say this. They. After they.

[Jason Moore]

They did.

[David Johnson]

After that game. Now that we know what we know, right, between Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan, who's your. Who's your MVP now?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, it's in kind of the regular season.

[David Johnson]

Yeah. It's still Matt Ryan, still Aaron Rodgers.

[Andy Holloway]

Still Aaron Rodgers. Well, look, not much more can be said about those games.

[David Johnson]

Looking forward to the Super Bowl.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's get back to the present.

[Jason Moore]

Oh.

[David Johnson]

Oh.

[Jason Moore]

It's like I'm falling.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, well, hopefully we, you know.

[David Johnson]

There'S your news and notes.

[Andy Holloway]

We nailed the league. All right, quick question of the day from Matthew Eaton. Considering that AP will be out of Minnesota before his career is over, would you take a chance on him having one great year with his new team before falling off the cliff, or do you never touch him again after this season?

[David Johnson]

I think for fantasy football, I will take a chance at him, depending on his location. If this is real football, I'm not having. If my hometown team wants. And not just because obviously my hometown team has David Johnson. But if. If we didn't, I would not want the baggage and the price and everything that comes with a one year rental of Adrian Peterson.

[Jason Moore]

Adrian Peterson is owed $18 million to play for the Minnesota Vikings in 2017. Adrian Peterson is not going to be playing for $18 million. No.

[Andy Holloway]

He. He will have to take a significant pay cut.

[Jason Moore]

Massive, massive pay cut.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's what I think, and I'll go on record. This is. This is my opinion and I. In our Dynasty League, I had to make this decision, right? Like, I made a trade where I let go of Alshon Jeffrey and I got Jameson Crowder and Adrian Peterson and a move up in our Dynasty draft. I did it on the basis of me believing there's a year left of Adrian Peterson. I think it'll be in Minnesota. I really Do I think he'll take a pay cut?

[Jason Moore]

Do you, as someone who made that trade, do you want Peterson in Minnesota, given the legendary suck that was their offensive line in their running game?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think I do.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't want to mess around with him playing second fiddle or historically bad.

[David Johnson]

Well, but he only had two games.

[Jason Moore]

No, not just him, but the entire rushing.

[David Johnson]

Yeah, but would he like. But would he have stayed that way? Because he's been good with a bad offensive line before, so maybe he was. You know, if he had played 16 games, I don't think that offensive line would have looked as historically.

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe you can. Maybe you can paint me a picture of another team and scenario that I would like him to go to, but to me, they jump out at like, okay, do I really want him in Cleveland? I don't think I really want him in Cleveland more than I do Minnesota.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Do I really want him? I mean, Washington, maybe, Maybe, maybe Washington. I guess if that was. If somebody pays him to start, I guess I can live with that.

[Jason Moore]

If it's Minnesota or Washington. Washington all day.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Okay. All right. Well, without further ado, let's talk quarterbacks.

[Jason Moore]

You want answers?

[Andy Holloway]

I think I'm entitled.

[Jason Moore]

You want answers?

[Andy Holloway]

I want the truth.

[Jason Moore]

You can handle the truth.

[Andy Holloway]

So a lot of great feedback on Twitter about these episodes. The focus on the truth at every position, the consistency of players versus their ending ranking. If you haven't listened to previous episodes, we had a couple on running backs, we had a couple on wide receivers, and we'll get into tight ends on Thursday. That being said, we've had some requests for people to. They want our. These rankings, right? They want this data, this information on the website. Do you think Kyle Brooks, you think they can get some of this done on the website? Mike is shrugging.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know.

[Andy Holloway]

You actually, you. You run the company with me. So what do you, what do you think?

[David Johnson]

We can get something.

[Andy Holloway]

We can get something up there that makes sense because I think kind of putting all this information into a physical form would be good. But today we're talking about quarterbacks. We're going to go through the rankings. We're going to go as far as we can go on today's show. So I don't know if that means, you know, 20 quarterbacks, 15, whatever it is, we'll talk through them. Quarterbacks is, Quarterbacks are, are one of those positions where, look, you want the locked and loaded starter, you want to not think about it. Do I want to stream quarterbacks? Not really, no. I want.

[David Johnson]

You would rather have Aaron Rodgers this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Or Jason, before the show we were talking about, you were looking at some data, right, about finishing quarterback. Go ahead and talk about it because it'll bring up my auto start that I had a few years ago.

[David Johnson]

Exactly. So you know, I wanted to see how our quarterbacks looking, you know, in standard and six point. How'd they stack up this year to, you know, the last five years? Were they higher, were they lower? They're pretty much where it's been as far as the first place finish and the 12th place finish in fantasy football.

[Jason Moore]

As far as total fantasy, total fantasy points score.

[Andy Holloway]

He was checking to see if this was a lower or higher.

[David Johnson]

Yeah, I mean this year was, this year was pretty much exactly like last year. A little higher than the few years before that. And you've got this range, right, for like four for standard scoring where the number one quarterback has somewhere between 340 and 380, you know, fantasy points. Right. And then in six point it's a little higher. It's like four hundred and thirty to four hundred and sixty. And then there was one year where I was like whoa, 519 for Peyton Manning.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, the Denver years.

[David Johnson]

Yeah, that's what you would prefer rather than stream, you just rather get the guy that sets the NFL record for touchdowns and you go ahead and win the championship on auto lock. I remember after that year when we came into the 2014 season, I mean everybody, quarterbacks were like you wanted to trade for a quarterback, you wanted to grab the best one. Same after the Tom Brady year, you overreact to those things. This year was pretty average and the number one was, was Aaron Rodgers.

[Andy Holloway]

Last year Cam Newton was the number one quarterback. This year Cam Newton, despite playing 15 games is the number 17 quarterback. And so these, that reality exists for the quarterback position as well. So there's, there's this balance between, you know, most of the time we're recommending streaming because the price you pay to maybe get a top tier auto start guy, not always get, maybe get is too high.

[Jason Moore]

And it's not just maybe you get them. It's the fact that you can replace that production. You can't replace when, when you have Aaron Rodgers, you can't replace that production. That I acquiesce to this point. But, but I can replace a top 12 quarterback off of the waiver wire. We talk about this. I believe it was once again 40 quarterbacks finished with a top 12 week. So they're just, they're available as opposed to the the running backs and wide receivers, they are. They're not widely available. So that's why we always talk about you take the quarterback late because the points that they produce, everyone scores. Every quarterback throws touchdowns. Every quarterback can throw for over 200 yards. Well, maybe, maybe not a few of them, maybe not the golf, maybe not the cats in Cleveland and Jared Goff, however, they're just. It's a replaceable position, which is why you take them later.

[David Johnson]

Well, let's talk about the first guy who finished number one, Aaron Rodgers, because we're talking about the truth of quarterbacks. Are they actually consistent? Do they help you or did they just have, you know, those boom bust weeks? Aaron Rodgers needs to be talked about on a different level. Okay. Because when we're talking about consistency, there's one thing about they were consistent within 2016, but Aaron Rodgers has been consistent forever. I'm looking back and as you're talking, I wanted to look at where he's finished. I'm going to read you Aaron Rodgers finishes over the last few years. You guys ready?

[Jason Moore]

I know what they are.

[David Johnson]

2016, he finished number one. Now last year was a down year, right? He finished. He still finished number eight. Right. He was still a top 12 quarterback, but he also lost his number one wide receiver for the whole year.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

He also lost some of the prestige that he had previously by finishing eight.

[David Johnson]

Exactly. 2014, he finished number two. 2013, he was dead. He did not play. He was injured. That was his injury.

[Jason Moore]

Well, he played, but that was the collarbone year.

[David Johnson]

Yeah. 2012, he would finish the second best quarterback. 2011, we're going far back now. He was the number one quarterback in fantasy football. 2010, the number two quarterback. 2009, the number one quarterback. Okay. I mean, 2008, the number three. He is a locked and loaded top guy. And that's why coming into this year, you know, everyone was. Is it Cam? And Aaron Rodgers was my number one. Aaron Rodgers will be my number one next year.

[Andy Holloway]

40 touchdowns, 4400 yards, four rushing touchdowns, number one most consistent quarterback, 12 top 10 performances out of 16 games. Only one time did he not finish in the top 21. And he had six top two performances over the year. Put up a little bit better numbers against bottom 16 defenses, but it was pretty even. His yardage went up against bottom 16 defenses by about 50 yards and he was over two touchdowns a game no matter who he played.

[Jason Moore]

So to be fair though, I mean, we did. We can't forget the beginning of the season was very frustrating for the Green Bay packers offense. I remember us frequently talking about what is wrong, what is wrong with Aaron Rodgers because he's not, he's not putting up the kind of numbers that you're used to. I mean, he had that streak dating back to last year where it was, I think, double digit games without a 300 yard performance.

[David Johnson]

That's right.

[Jason Moore]

But I think that a lot of that was tied to just the weapons he had available. He didn't have. Jordy Nelson is just so crucial to that offense. What he brings, it makes all the, all the wide receivers on that team better.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so I, you know, but he's. We'll talk a lot more about Aaron Rodgers obviously this offseason and we'll talk about where he's being drafted and where we would draft him. But him being on another level going back to 2009. Do you make exceptions to your philosophies for Aaron Rodgers, Mike?

[Jason Moore]

No. It depends on what you mean by early. If you're saying, would I grab him the second round? No, not happening. But a guy like Rogers, that's maybe in the fifth round. Maybe. Which means.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, you would never have him.

[David Johnson]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

That means no way. Most likely very, very low probability that he would have.

[David Johnson]

One of the nice things that happened this year is if you look at the average draft position over the last several years at the quarterback position, it plummeted this year. So I don't know if that's.

[Andy Holloway]

You're welcome.

[David Johnson]

Yeah, exactly.

[Andy Holloway]

You're welcome, America.

[David Johnson]

People are listening more and more and realizing, oh, I don't need a draft quarterback early. That allowed people like Aaron Rodgers to be drafted later. Now Aaron Rodgers will probably go second round next year. I would be willing to draft him in the fourth, no problem. That would be my stance. If I can get three good wide receiver, running back to start and then a locked and loaded quarterback who I know is going to be a top three type guy.

[Andy Holloway]

I would be willing, as of today, Rogers is going at the back of the second round. Brady and Breeze in the third round.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

And then you actually don't see another quarterback until almost the fifth. So that seems a little lower than we're used to seeing.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, well, that's, that's right now. Once, once the, the normal leagues, the like, you know, the regular, the casual players are gone. He's going to start going in the first round.

[Andy Holloway]

Matt Ryan's the number two quarterback. He was drafted all the way back at like 140.

[Jason Moore]

Studley.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So he, you know, almost 5,000 yards, 38 touchdowns. The big number there, seven interceptions. You know, look, just a MVP season from Matt Ryan. He was great. He was consistent. He never gave you a performance outside the top 21. He had those big games and look, he was just absolutely great. The question for fantasy owners is, you know, is Matt Ryan, did he level up? Right. That's the language we use when we talked about Cam Newton. Did he level up? Is this something you can expect? Obviously players like Brady and Rogers and Breeze, they reach another level and they persist at that level. They're the same. Is Matt Ryan going to be drafted? Is he going to be Cam Newton for next year? Is he got the potential for that or not really? Because his numbers haven't been. You know, he didn't make an all time leap.

[Jason Moore]

Right. I don't think he has the Cam Newton level of regression possible. But with Kyle Shanahan getting the old the wink, wink, nudge, nudge from San Francisco, all signs point to the offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan moving to San Francisco. And we've seen Kyle Shanahan moving throughout teams throughout the years making just gems out of quarterback. Ask Matt Schaub what it's like to play for Kyle Shanahan when you lead.

[David Johnson]

The league in passing and the play calling too, both in the running game and the passing game. I think if Kyle Shanahan is gone, which by now could actually be official. I think there is regression for Matt Ryan.

[Andy Holloway]

Let me. Yeah, I was going to say I want to give you some perspective and I do want people to remember he played with Kyle Shanahan in 2015.

[David Johnson]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. But that first year.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. But I'm not, I'm not one to just. Just say Kyle Shanahan is the whole reason it's.

[David Johnson]

It's touchdowns for me.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, it's touchdowns. But look average, you know the average completion for Matt Ryan first career was 766776 yards per incept. This is this year was 9.26. Right.

[David Johnson]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

Interceptions, double digits every single year down to seven. This year he less than have them. His touchdowns went from 21 to 38. His passer rating in his career, he's a 93 passer rating on average this year was 117. So that's good and bad. Right. That's. That's. You're amazing Matt Ryan. But we like to see it over. Look Aaron Rogers.

[David Johnson]

Yeah. I just read he's eight years.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. The thing about so Matt Ryan the regression is coming for. I agree with Jason. Matt Ryan has always been lacking touchdowns. Which is funny because I mean you look at Julio Jones, superstar. What the biggest knock on Julio Jones for fantasy football is he doesn't get you those elite level touchdowns. But Matt Ryan has you looked at his numbers. This is why he was in our our sleeper list in the UDK was he was consistent. The yardage was very high. He just wasn't throwing touchdowns. And that's the number that it can fluctuate. What I like about Matt Ryan, top 16, bottom 16, passing defense, it did not matter. He averaged over 300 yards a game.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to go on record and say that I while regression may happen, I still put him in the top three quarterbacks three and I do.

[David Johnson]

I will go on record and say he as a top five quarterback and that's fine.

[Andy Holloway]

And the reason is this year you're going to bring back personnel. You got Gabriel and Sanu, you got a maturing Hardy, you have Hooper, Coleman is maturing Freeman still young. And then Julio Jones tops the whole thing off. Right?

[David Johnson]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

We saw the impact that that type of situation always made on Stafford's numbers. So personnel maturity, I'm going to put him in the top three next year.

[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

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[Andy Holloway]

We also want to thank Indochino for sponsoring today's show. We absolutely love Indochino, all three of us. Here we have an Indochino suit. You're talking about a made to measure suit that fits perfectly. Not one of those generic off the rack Frankenstein shoulder junk suits that we probably see half the people at FSTA walking around in. These are incredible suits and they are one of the largest made to measure menswear brands in the world that make it easy to get a great fitting suit. Listen to the process. You go to indochino.com you pick from hundreds of fabrics and patterns. You get to choose customizations on the suit. We all chose jacket linings that we absolutely love. Submit your body measurements, which is a very easy process. And then you kick back, relax, and you get ready to step into the best fit fitting suit, the most stylish suit you've ever worn in just four weeks. Listen, they are hooking the foot clan up. The listeners get any premium Indochino suit for just $[e-mail] you just have to enter that promo code footballers at checkout. That's 50% off the regular price for a made to measure premium suit. And the Shipping's free. That's Indochino.com promo code footballers for any premium suit. Just $389 with free shipping. You don't have to worry about badly fitting suits anymore. We love them. No more expensive trips to the tailor. So go to Indochino.com and use the promo code footballers at checkout. I'm reading the definition of truthiness over here. The quality of seeming or being felt to be true, even if not necessarily true. So I think truth truthiness may be key to fantasy football trading.

[Jason Moore]

That's a Colbert.

[Andy Holloway]

It is a Colbert original. Yeah. But I found it humorous that Google actually gave me a official definition.

[Jason Moore]

We got to get our. We got to get a word in Oxford. New life goals.

[Andy Holloway]

We do.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[David Johnson]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Great. Johnny Wahlberg. Wait, no, that's. Sorry, that's not. That's spectacular.

[David Johnson]

That's an IMDb.

[Andy Holloway]

We need to move down because the.

[Jason Moore]

Someone make a new IMDb page for.

[Andy Holloway]

Johnny Wahlberg and Johnny John in the Funky Bunch.

[David Johnson]

All right, so I expect Matt Ryan to regress far more than you two do, but he's been good, very consistent.

[Andy Holloway]

You don't get the final word. Matt Ryan's the best. All right, we need to get down into the more highly debated, guys. So Drew Brees was number three. You know, demise avoided. He's good. He's very Good. He did play much better against Jason.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, he was real bad for two games.

[David Johnson]

I'm saying it was dumb coming into this year. I said a million times he was.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, we were very high on Drew.

[David Johnson]

Brees favorite quarterback to draft coming into this season because he finally had weapons back. He didn't have an old getting older Marquis Colson. He had a young getting better. You know, Michael Thomas and so what Drew Brees did he finish as the third best? Michael Thomas, he finishes the third best quarterback and Drew Brees is the only other guy. There's no. There's no third. Oh, but Tom Brady or but you know, Philip Rivers. There's none of that. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are the only two guys.

[Jason Moore]

Philip Rivers. That's where you went.

[David Johnson]

Well, who else?

[Jason Moore]

Ben Roth was Andrew Luck.

[David Johnson]

Andrew Luck, Tom Brady. None of those guys have been consistent for a long period of time as a fantasy football top three type guy. Drew Brees is. He was the third. Sixth. Fifth. Second. First. Second. Sixth. Second. First quarterback going back the same all the way to 2008.

[Jason Moore]

The splits are real though.

[Andy Holloway]

5,200 yards, 37 touchdowns, 15 picks.

[Jason Moore]

Splits are real.

[David Johnson]

Home road.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's really the home on the road because against top half defenses he was actually much better than against bottom half. I assume that coincided with his road and away games.

[Andy Holloway]

He had a couple of those weird games that the home game against Detroit killed people. He was. He was a playoff killer for a couple of weeks depending on when your playoffs started. That's not going to sit well for people. Where's his adp? You know, last year he was drafted. He was in the middle. The middle of the.

[David Johnson]

I could grab him. Was it 46 in drafts that we were in where you got smarter players. I could grab him seventh or eighth round sometimes last year and so that. That's. He would be.

[Andy Holloway]

He was. Yeah, he was late. Late fifth. Yeah, we had the wrong. I think we.

[David Johnson]

He's going to go way up this year. We'll have to wait until his ADP to see whether he's drafted. But Drew Brees is good. There's no regression coming. His weapons are getting better. They're intact. I think we can move on now.

[Jason Moore]

To Andrew if Sean Payton is traded any. Well, I guess he won't be now because of all the coaching staff was our position. I retract my statement.

[Andy Holloway]

Don't talk about that. All right.

[Jason Moore]

Andrew Luck.

[Andy Holloway]

Andrew Luck is number four. I've gone on record. He's one of my favorite players players for next year at the quarterback position, he already finished number four. I think the affordability of Andrew Luck and the top three potential of Andrew Luck make him a no brainer. I mean, yeah, he was a fifth round pick last year. This year he's not going so far until, you know, fourth, late fourth, early fifth.

[Jason Moore]

He'll be before Breeze.

[Andy Holloway]

I would draft Andrew luck in the fifth round.

[David Johnson]

Me too.

[Andy Holloway]

100%. You talked about drafting Aaron Rodgers there. You're not going to be able to. Yeah, but Andrew Luck, you might be able to.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

And if, if my estimation is that Brady, Rogers, Ryan will all go ahead of Andrew Luck.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I don't think Ryan will, but Ryan probably.

[Andy Holloway]

Why wouldn't Ryan.

[Jason Moore]

I agree that I.

[David Johnson]

Because people are going to listen to me come draft season and I'll destroy him.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, I can't see you're going to destroy him.

[Jason Moore]

So you can draft him, Breeze, Brady.

[Andy Holloway]

Rod, I don't know. Ahead of him. And then Luck and Ryan will be in similar.

[David Johnson]

Whenever you have a guy whose career high is 32 touchdowns in eight full seasons and then he comes out and throws 38, that's fair. You're going to have him go back down to maybe his previous career high, which would put him.

[Jason Moore]

But I just remember, I remember this all season long from Jason. You're like, well, he's going into Denver. I don't believe in him. It's not going to happen. Crushes Denver. Well, he has Seattle next week on the road. There's no way. Crushes it in Seattle. You've been crushing him all year long. You're like in the playoff games, like, well, Seattle's road, they're battle tested. They're going to go in, they're going to smash the Falcons. They got dismantled by Matt Ryan.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to put you on the start, Jason. January 18th.

[David Johnson]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you sure this is the hill you want to die on for the entire next year? Do you want to be on the Matt Ryan sucks bandwagon?

[David Johnson]

I think Matt Ryan is a good quarterback. I don't think he sucks. What I, what I do think is that he is not a prolific touchdown thrower for his career and I think he will regress to just to being a 30 touchdown guy, which is pretty good. But for fantasy football purposes, he is going to not perform to his adp. That's like a. For me, it's a virtual guarantee that he is going to underperform his ADP next year. And so I'm.

[Andy Holloway]

Even though you just said his ADP would be much later because people would listen to you.

[David Johnson]

Well, I'm getting the ball rolling now. I'm starting.

[Jason Moore]

Beware.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Andrew Luck, he was very good. 4,200 yards, 31 touchdowns. Brought those interception totals back down to where you wanted to see them after he got that big contract and struggled last season. You know, he runs the ball 64 attempts, 341 yards and two rushing touchdowns. He was actually third in the league in consistency. He had a couple performances outside the top 21, but 10 of his 15 games were inside that top 10. He missed a game. And look, he was great. He took advantage of bad defenses. He had an offensive line that was.

[Jason Moore]

Atrocious and will always, forever and ever be a trophy.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't agree with that. I don't agree with that. They'll get things figured out. If you have a moderate improvement to that O line with what Andrew Luck can do. Will do. Moncrief was injured all year long. You still had Hilton set career highs. I'm telling you, Andrew Luck, I'm on board. He'll be my quarterback in a ton. Well, maybe not. If people listen to you, Jason, they might listen to me. And he's going to go higher.

[David Johnson]

There you go.

[Andy Holloway]

Kirk Cousins, number five. Number five was drafted.

[Jason Moore]

Now we're in my range, baby.

[Andy Holloway]

You and Kirk.

[Jason Moore]

Me and Kirk forever.

[Andy Holloway]

You know what's amazing about that is he burned you down in the playoffs.

[Jason Moore]

I know.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, he burned you down. And you're just loyal, just infinitely loyal to Kirk.

[David Johnson]

He.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, yeah, we had one bad game. It came at the worst time, at the worst possible time, but that's fine. He wasn't the only one who had bad games.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's something interesting. 329 passing yards against top, deep, top defenses. 267 passing yards against bottom defenses. Obviously, he was one of the leaders in the league in terms of passing yardage in general, almost 5,000 yards. What is Kirk Cousins? Where should he be? I mean, he's. I don't think anybody's drafting as the number five quarterback next.

[Jason Moore]

No. And that's why Kirk Cousins is so glorious. Because I think that's who he is. I think he is a 5 to 10 range quarterback that will always be drafted late because people don't like him.

[Andy Holloway]

Would you take Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson next year?

[Jason Moore]

I'll take Kirk Cousins.

[David Johnson]

Wow. For. Take Wilson for average draft position, second half, only league. I would say Kirk Cousins. Exactly. If you're asking who finishes higher, I think Russell Wilson finishes higher. But Kirk Cousins is the first example here on our list of why you don't draft a quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

You glossed over Matt Ryan.

[David Johnson]

Well, no, I was drafted after Kirk Cousins. I agree. Looking backwards, I'm saying looking forward, I think Matt Ryan will be drafted high, but Kirk won't. He just won't. People will not believe in him. They never will. And so I agree with you, Mike, that he is going to perform fine for fantasy and you're going to get him in the 10th round or you know, around that range.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And 5, 6, 7 and 8 on this list. And this is so people at home understand this is the rankings based on half point scoring, Correct?

[Jason Moore]

Well, that's regardless, because they don't get half point. They get. This is, I believe this is 4 point per touchdown though.

[David Johnson]

Yeah, standard. Standard scoring.

[Andy Holloway]

The next four.

[Jason Moore]

That's the question.

[Andy Holloway]

Cousins, Prescott, Stafford and Taylor are all, we're all drafted outside the top 100 picks and finished 5, 6, 7, 8.

[David Johnson]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

And so that, that's the. Just to add to your point, happens every year. So Prescott, I mean, obviously undrafted for the most part.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

He, he played 16 games. He only had 3,600 passing yards, but again, he was finding they, they were trusting him more and more to put up yardage towards the end of the season. So I don't really like looking at the season ending stats for him as much as I do the consistency level. And for him, he was very consistent. He had, he didn't really have any of those monster games. That was the one thing you never saw from Prescott. You never saw, you know, a four touchdown plus a running touchdown. Those Cam Newton type games from last year. But he could run it. He had six rushing touchdowns and he played very, very well. I mean, so Dak Prescott is very curious to me for next season because obviously they're going to move on from Tony Romo. It'll be Prescott's job.

[David Johnson]

I like him a lot.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I do too.

[David Johnson]

I have no idea, no barometer for this guy as to where he'll be drafted. I can't possibly get a grip on whether people will believe and draft them early or whether they'll think it was a rookie year and he'll have a sophomore slump and draft him late. It's entirely depending on that.

[Andy Holloway]

Is it Prescott or Dak Prescott or Kirk Cousins for you, Jason, I would.

[David Johnson]

Rather have the more consistent Dak Prescott than the more fiery Kirk Cousins.

[Jason Moore]

You're talking about the guy who was in the top ten ten times. Kirk Cousins.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's hard to say more consistent because Cousins was the third most consistent this year. Yeah, but this season was. Well, there's only one season for Prescott.

[David Johnson]

Yeah, but not for Kirk Cousins. We've seen him have big monster games. If you look at last year, he had big monster games and a lot of bad games as well.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. All right. So you would take Prescott.

[Jason Moore]

I would, I would. I would probably. I would still take Cousins here, but I really like that moving into next year, then the knock on him.

[Andy Holloway]

Hard for me to trade in 1300 yards.

[David Johnson]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

For Dak.

[Jason Moore]

And that's people. The. The knock on Dak right now, like. Well, his passing attempts, you know, they're, they're low. The yardage is low. It. It reminds me exactly of Tony Romo.

[David Johnson]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

When Tony Romo was dominant. For fantasy purposes. Because while I like attempts, I like a team that's going to throw a lot. I like a guy who is also hyper efficient with his pass attempts. And this is a guy who was building up his chemistry with his number one wide receiver. As much as I love Cole Beasley, clearly Des is the better talent. And once Dak starts going to Desmore, then I think his numbers are going to go up. I think he's over 4,000 next year.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so let's talk about Stafford and Tyrod Taylor. Seven, eight on this list. From a consistency perspective, you know, Stafford was fairly consistent. He only had 24 touchdowns. It was a weird year for Stafford. Like, both of these guys, I look at them and I see them at 7 and 8 and I just kind of like I have that smirk face that like, huh, I'm gonna be. Just doesn't feel. Feel like a top 10 year for Stafford. Well, Stafford did in the beginning of the year.

[Jason Moore]

Stafford was great to start.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I know. And, but I'm saying because of how he finished and because of how inconsistent Taylor was, by the way, 18th most consistent quarterback despite finishing number eight. That's brutal.

[David Johnson]

Tyrod Taylor, I mean, Stafford too.

[Andy Holloway]

He had five of Stafford's games were outside the top 21. So you talk about a season where. That's why I'm saying I look sideways at him and I go, how many.

[Jason Moore]

Of those games were. Were the finger games?

[Andy Holloway]

The finger games?

[Jason Moore]

Well, once he factored, man, once he.

[David Johnson]

Broke his finger, everything changed for him. He stopped throwing touchdowns, started throwing interceptions. Matthew Stafford, to me, is a guy that will probably like looking forward. He might be my number one target next year because he's going to go very late. He lost Theo Riddick, which is a huge help.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he lost what was that stat about theoretic.

[Andy Holloway]

That.

[David Johnson]

That was that you? Yeah, that was me.

[Jason Moore]

I apologize.

[David Johnson]

Theo Riddick. Well, actually, technically it was Kyle Baloney who found this. It's on our article on the herbal.

[Andy Holloway]

Barry has a first name.

[Jason Moore]

Kyle Baloney.

[David Johnson]

Yeah. Mike Baloney has a first name. It's spelled K, Y, L, E. So anyways, you're welcome out there.

[Andy Holloway]

That's our lead editor on the website.

[David Johnson]

He sure is highly respected.

[Andy Holloway]

And great food if you're in a prison.

[David Johnson]

Yes, also that. Anyways, Theo Riddick. Theo Riddick missed five games. You know, he missed a third of the season and he was the league leader in touchdown receptions at the running back position. That's incredible. And you miss that, you break your finger. Matthew Stafford started the year on absolute fire and had things, you know, not break his way. And so I looking next year. I think Matthew Stafford has. Is a guy I'll target.

[Jason Moore]

I agree. I think he'll be one of my targets as well with. With Cousins. But the thing about Stafford is it just. It always seems to fall apart at some point.

[David Johnson]

That's true.

[Andy Holloway]

And normally it's December.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

So you can blame the finger, but he's got a bad run, he's got a bad history.

[Jason Moore]

This is what you do.

[David Johnson]

You draft staff or trade him for.

[Andy Holloway]

Russell Wilson for the second half. Yeah, Stafford starts hot. We'll talk about Wilson in a minute. Taylor, I mean, who knows where he's going. Only 3,000 passing yards, 17 touchdowns. It was all about the running game. 580 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. Are they committed to him? Are they not committed to him?

[David Johnson]

It appears like it's almost a lock that they're going to cut him from news reports, which is surprising to me.

[Andy Holloway]

But every That a Tony Romo destination Buffalo. Yeah.

[David Johnson]

Ooh, my Sammy Watkins dynasty. Ownership says yes, please.

[Jason Moore]

I would say say no if there was the reports. One of the Dallas beat reporters was saying they're probably going to end up cutting him. Romo, that was his prediction. Anyways. I don't know if that's going to happen or if he'll get traded, but it's. I mean, that's Hugh. It makes sense. It makes. Well, Houston, they still have to eat that Brock contract. I don't know if you can pay that much to just the quarterback position. That would be great. Tony Romo and Houston would be glorious.

[Andy Holloway]

9 and 10 on this list, Blake Bortles and Russell Wilson. Or as we call him, Russell Wilson. Look, Wilson doesn't belong at 10. To me, that's what his Numbers put him. No, I know, but this isn't an argument.

[Jason Moore]

These are facts.

[Andy Holloway]

Didn't you just tell me a story about a finger? Yeah, once upon a time.

[David Johnson]

Let's hear a story about some ankles.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean Russell Wilson starts compared to his finished was just a different level. Obviously losing Lockett. Who knows whether he'll be back at the beginning of next year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. For the he will.

[Andy Holloway]

It was the rushing. It was the rushing yardage that went down. He didn't get out of the pocket. He couldn't run. That killed his fantasy value. Yet he still finished as a top 10 fantasy quarterback. But we're getting ahead of ourselves. Let's talk about Bortles first. Number nine.

[David Johnson]

How is Bortles number nine? It's just.

[Andy Holloway]

It's so the Garden can look Bortles piece. I mean remember that game against Tennessee.

[David Johnson]

Where he would play pretty much the worst game I've ever seen in my life and then finished with like 350 and three touchdowns?

[Andy Holloway]

No, but is he a candidate with the weapons in place? If Chip Kelly went there. Even if he doesn't, you got a new head coach. He played okay at the very end of the year.

[David Johnson]

Marquis Lee stepping up his game.

[Andy Holloway]

Alan Robinson. Marquis Lee, Alan Hearns the reports Julius.

[Jason Moore]

Thomas yelling through a multiple multiple times of separating his shoulder I believe an elbow injury. I mean there's things that make sense. The. The regression was completely expected for Blake Bortles. He wasn't going to repeat the numbers.

[Andy Holloway]

And we said it all last year.

[Jason Moore]

But to go from what he was where he was, you know, evolving into maybe an okay quarterback to go to. You're just in embarrassment on the field. There's. There has to be reasons for these things happening and maybe it was the injury.

[Andy Holloway]

There is massive risk with Border now fortunately.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe it depends on where you. What are you going to have to pay in the draft.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure. Well. And yeah I'm speaking in terms of like Bortles. If he played very poorly for the first four games next year, there's no reason they wouldn't switch off of him.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, for the team.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, the team. The team could be.

[Jason Moore]

I see what you mean.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm just saying he's the first guy on this list that that could happen to. But that being said, we saw what he did. We saw what he did a year ago. We saw the potential he has and we know the weapons he has to get his mechanics right. Apparently the shoulder is an issue. If I played like that, I'd be blaming shoulders, elbows, knees and toes. I Mean it would be. Everything would be hurt for me. He was terrible against good passing defenses. Only 200 yards and one touchdown on average. Against. Against top passing defense.

[Jason Moore]

That's pretty average normal for Bortles there. He eats up on bad defenses.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, yeah, but that's a, that's a mark against.

[David Johnson]

Yeah. Borl's can't be. I don't think he's the type of guy never a top tier performance by the way can ever be trusted as a weekly plug and play starter. Right. We're going from guys you know that Matt Ryan or Drew Brees or you know, even Russell Wilson if he's healthy, should be able to be an every week starter. Bortles is a, is a streamer. You have to play the matchups with Bortles and obviously considering he finishes the number nine quarterback this season despite having an atrocious season, he's got those big games where you can look and say this matchup is winnable. Play him so draft wise and he.

[Andy Holloway]

Runs the ball a little bit next.

[David Johnson]

Year grab him late and pair him with someone else. So it should be fine.

[Jason Moore]

The latest fantasy football calculator draft. He was the 14th quarterback off the board.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah. So no risk.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's.

[Andy Holloway]

Russell Wilson is number 10. Would you take Russell Wilson or would you rather have Stafford or Prescott next year? Now you got to remember Wilson went as high as 32 in standard leagues.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. He was the new hotness. I wonder if people will look at his final finish and take that as that's people got burned this year after.

[David Johnson]

Drafting him high last year. Wilson next year he'll be.

[Andy Holloway]

Same story with Newton.

[David Johnson]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Wilson and Newton are the two most interesting draft quarterbacks for me because both have shown you top three years and Wilson's done it for multiple years at the top three.

[David Johnson]

Russell Wilson is going to be a great draft pick next year. Yeah. Last year we're not exactly 100% sure why. I just looked up the numbers. So between weeks one and nine last season he was the 17th ranked quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

We talking Wilson.

[David Johnson]

Well, Russell Wilson this year between weeks one and nine, he was the 17th ranked quarterback. Identical. Right. The second half of last year he finished as the number two quarterback during that time. Second half of this year, the number four quarterback. What I like about it, what I like about it is one, people got burned in their drafts. And the first half of this year, the continuation from his hotness last year, there's reason there was all the injuries where he was an immobile pocket quarterback that looked like he couldn't move and he didn't have an offensive line to protect him once he was mobile, he got it going again and looked like last year. So I think next year. We've already seen Russell Wilson, as Andy said, finish as a top three fantasy quarterback before. I think he's going to be a great pick next year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. I'm excited about a bounce back year. Hopefully something that lasts the entire year. And we don't have a third straight year of him being a 17th ranked guy to start the year because you can't stick with that. That's the problem. You draft that and you pay. If you pay to draft premium now, I think you'll go in the sixth round. I think you'll go in the sixth or seventh round in this next year, which I'm happy to pay.

[David Johnson]

Yeah, seventh round. I've already got a good team that I've drafted in those first six picks and I can, I can take a gamble on a high upside quarterback like.

[Andy Holloway]

Wilson and I'd take, I'd rather if I knew I could get Wilson in the seventh round versus that when I said luck in the fifth earlier, I'd probably take Wilson in the seventh.

[David Johnson]

Yeah. Grab two more good players.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we're back out of the top 10. Here we have Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Marcus Mariota, Philip Rivers and Tom Brady. Kind of an outlier down there thanks to the 12 games. So let's talk about these guys here. The things that stick out to me were the consistency of Andy Dalton and Philip rivers. They finished 12 and 14, but their consistency was 18 and 24. Who's the most disappointing? Or do you kind of just say, okay, he didn't have Keenan Allen, he didn't have Danny Woodhead. So who cares about Rivers? And Dalton didn't have A.J. green and Dalton didn't have Gio Bernard. I mean it's kind of similar situations for those two guys.

[David Johnson]

Rivers disappoints me more than Dalton did. For me, when I look, not only did you not have AJ Green, but you also lost Mohammed Sanu and Marvin Jones. I mean he was going. We, you know, we knew it was going to be tough sledding for Andy Dalton. He lost his top three wide receivers from last year. Philip Rivers still had a good core of wide receivers to throw to minus Keenan Allen. And Rivers was a touchdown machine to me. Andy Dalton showed. There were times this year where I saw him be what I think he is, which is a pretty darn good quarterback. I expect AJ Green to be back. I expect you Know you're not going to have rookie year, Tyler Boyd being kind of shunned as a rookie and they'll probably address the position further this offseason. So next year. Andy Dalton is a guy to me that is always undervalued and is a good quarterback. If they can get weapons for him, I'll like him.

[Andy Holloway]

Derek Carr obviously slipped down the list. He had a Great start, almost 4,000 yards, 28 touchdowns, only six interceptions, which was impressive to me. He's really maturing and growing and one of those guys that you can certainly look at and say, hey, he could be a top eight quarterback easily.

[Jason Moore]

Could be.

[Andy Holloway]

He missed a game.

[Jason Moore]

He could be. And he's. He still has the heats against bad defense. Yeah, almost 300 yards game against bad defenses, but top half defenses, 230 yards. I mean those are pretty substantial differences. Where I like, I like Carr. I think that he could be there one day. But you're going to have to.

[Andy Holloway]

One of the best offensive lines in football, right?

[David Johnson]

Two great pass catching weapons in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Great pass catching running backs as a trio of them.

[Andy Holloway]

But you can't count on them against great defenses.

[David Johnson]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

He plays Denver twice and he plays the Chiefs twice.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's four of your 12. It could be four of your 12 games. Yeah, we talked about Dalton. Marcus Mariota.

[Jason Moore]

The last thing I want to say about Dalton was this year he threw about seven touchdowns less than his, the, his average. If you average out his first five years, seven touchdowns down. So if you put those, you know that if he just threw it, if he had an average year, he would be, you'd be fine.

[Andy Holloway]

I think you're, if you're listening and you hear some of these same phrases, which is, well, he could, you know, this guy can come back next year. You know, Derek Carr could be top eight Andy Dalton, he's got reason to bounce back to the mean Philip Rivers. You got Keenan Allen back. You're getting the picture right at the quarterback position because we haven't even talked about Mariota and Brady and Winston and Newton and Roethlisberger. These are guys not even mentioned. Eli Manning, you know, there's 20 names.

[Jason Moore]

He should not be mentioned. Eli Manning, okay, gross. This year he was gross, terrible.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he was really bad.

[David Johnson]

Forget fantasy, you just watch the game.

[Jason Moore]

He must have been on a boat every week.

[Andy Holloway]

Marcus Mariota, 15 games sat a game, obviously the injury, but Mariota finished 13th, was the ninth most consistent, had a couple top two performances. So those monster games where for the record Dalton, Rivers, Bortles, none. Those guys never put up a top two performance. Mariota did that twice. It wasn't. It was in the passing game. Right. 26 touchdowns, nine interceptions. Looked great. Built a rapport with the Shard Matthews, but still had some games that were let you down.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Marcus Mariota. It reminds me that the situation is very similar to Dak in that. I mean, you have a decently mobile guy. The offense is not built on his back. It's built on the running game. But Dak has Des Bryant, and Marcus Mariota has Rashard Matthews. While I like Matthews, he's no Des Bryant. He's not Des Bryant. And I don't think that they will have it. Maybe they draft one. I mean, they. They've got some. Some good picks in this. In this upcoming year, so maybe that's what they do and they address that situation. But I feel like Mariota, I think he's going to be drafted too high for me, I think.

[Andy Holloway]

Really?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I think people are going to latch on to him this, this offseason, especially.

[David Johnson]

If they pick up a studwide.

[Andy Holloway]

He's probably going to end up around the Stafford area. And so it sounds like you guys would be much more excited about drafting Stafford than you would be Mariota.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I would.

[David Johnson]

I probably would as well. I'm not quite as down on Mariota.

[Jason Moore]

I'm not down on him. I. He was. He impressed me a lot. But the reality.

[David Johnson]

The reality is here. I mean, I mean, you just said it. We haven't talked about Brady or Cam Newton or Roethlisberger or Winston. I mean, there's just so many quarterbacks you don't need. I mean, I'm right. I'm fine with just about anyone. We have mentioned, obviously, no, Eli Manning and Tyrod Taylor might not even have a team. We don't know yet. But otherwise, give me any of them.

[Jason Moore]

And then. I don't remember Andy, who. You were saying, you're like, well, the yardage is just gross. I mean, you have Marcus Mariota against top 16 defenses, averaging 190 passing yards. Now, I know he has. He has the 22 rushing yards. Oh, it was. It was Tyrod Taylor. It's. He has 22 rushing yards. That kind of balances things out a little bit. That's. You know, you are. You're adding basically 50 yards, 50 passing yards with those rushing yards. But it's. I don't think that it's the. I don't think it's going to be there next year for Mario to. It to be that top level fantasy quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, I want to talk about Tom Brady. He may be the last quarterback we discussed on today's show. Brady ended up at 15. We know the story. He was suspended. We also know the impact that Rob Gronkowski has. And I'm looking at his splits, right? Because the story about Brady is obviously, you know, he can win you any week. He has those monster performances. This year. The story was a couple of things. You had 18 rushing touchdowns from LeGarrett Blunt. You had Rob Gronkowski's injury. If you look at the splits with Gronkowski this year, without Gronkowski this year, it's about a three point difference for Brady. You drag that back to 2011 until now with and without Gronkowski, it's about a three point difference. When Gronkowski's there, he averages about three more points fantasy wise than when he's gone. And so you know that impact, but it's not a devastating impact. What, what is Brady next year? Because he ended up the ninth most consistent despite missing the four games. So obviously, you know, he puts up numbers, right.

[David Johnson]

I think he's probably going to be overdrafted next year because he'll be one of the top three or four quarterbacks drafted. And while he is good, I wouldn't give up the capital it will cost to get Brady, who is not a fantasy elite guy. When you, when you look at Brady, Brees, Breeze. Yeah, I would take Breeze. Breeze will go much. Maybe not much later, but he'll go later. And Breeze is just, you know, they are a passing, passing, passing team.

[Andy Holloway]

Brady or Matt Ryan? Ooh, Jason's just staring me down. Oh, man.

[David Johnson]

Brady or Matt Ryan? I'll take it. Depends on how far I can get Matt Ryan to drop. I would rather take my Ryan, you know, three rounds later. But if they're near the same, I'm taking Tom Brady.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. If they're near the same, I'll.

[David Johnson]

I'll pass both. That all that means is if they're near the same because I know Brady's going to be high. That means Matt Ryan is going to be high and I'll pass both.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so Brady ended at 15, ninth most consistent, missed the four games. Obviously belongs in that upper echelon with Rogers. Ryan, luck, Breeze, I guess, you know, Jason doesn't like Matt Ryan, but you.

[Jason Moore]

Know, hey, man, hey. These things happen.

[David Johnson]

I think Matt Ryan's good. I think Matt Ryan will be a 5, 6 to 10 quarterback next year. In fantasy.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm just going to Throw some other names out there just for your understanding of where guys Finish. Winston was 16, Newton was 17. Big Ben was 18. If you remember how high he was drafted, way too high. 53 was his ADP in standard league.

[David Johnson]

Our listeners didn't draft him. We gave massive warnings on Big Ben.

[Andy Holloway]

And we were really ripped for that.

[David Johnson]

Oh, because the beginning of the year, like didn't Big Ben start with like a game or two? That was just amazing. And then it was like, oh, man. Let me guess.

[Jason Moore]

Before this was playing at home, before.

[Andy Holloway]

The season started, we were being ripped for our Big Ben thoughts. Carson Palmer was 19.

[Jason Moore]

So just just to accentuate, Big Ben played six games at home, eight games on the road.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you looking at the splits at home this season?

[Jason Moore]

This is just this season.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

And this is not a outlier. You can go back many years for Big Ben, but this year, the six games at home, over 31 points a game on the road, just over 16 points a game, production in half. And that's what he gives you on the road.

[David Johnson]

Week one and two. He had three touchdowns in week one, three touchdowns. Week two. I was feeling like a dummy for saying don't draft Big Ben when he was in the fifth round. And the best part about Big Ben is that he will be drafted so high. He's a hall of fame quarterback. He's going to go so high. It's just a free bypass pick and.

[Jason Moore]

It makes no sense. How is he that bad on the.

[Andy Holloway]

Road other than Big Ben and Breeze? We should walk through some of the other quarterbacks on our own and see if we can find any monster home road split guys that we're not maybe as aware because that it seems to be like something that persists through years. I mean, you look at Breeze for the last six years, he's eight points better at home.

[Jason Moore]

And the deal is most guys, of course they're going to be better at home, but not half of your production.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's better at home. That's insane. All right, Carson Palmer was 19. Flacco 20.

[Jason Moore]

Do you.

[Andy Holloway]

And that's probably where I'm going to stop.

[Jason Moore]

So Carson Palmer, do you think that he can return to being a quarterback? One. I mean, look the numbers. Oh, still over 4,000 yards, but just 26.

[David Johnson]

John Brown, if John Brown is healthy and ready for 16 games, Carson Palmer will be fine.

[Andy Holloway]

If he's not, I don't think. No, I don't think he can return to that. I think he's a 13 to 15 guy next year with, with, you know, if Fitzgerald comes back, if Brown comes back, I really don't. I think the way that the team has changed with David Johnson being the team, the offense, the structure of the offense and the reason I say that too is because Palmer was, he was just more mistake prone this year, man. It wasn't just all related to losing John Brown. It was bad decisions and I think you're going to have to minimize those with just less attempts. So I think of him as a 12 to 15 guy, but he had nine fumbles. Yeah, that's nine and 14 picks.

[Jason Moore]

So that's pretty solid work there by a quarterback to fumble nine times.

[Andy Holloway]

That sounds like.

[David Johnson]

Sounds like Kurt Warner.

[Andy Holloway]

I love Michael. All right, well, that does it for today's episode. We'll talk through some tight ends. If you guys have thoughts, reach out on Twitter at the Ffballers. You can find us on the web at the fantasy footballers.com a ton of new articles always hitting the website all off season long. And check out our [e-mail] Help support our independent podcast. Reviews on itunes help a lot too. We appreciate your listenership and your support and stay tuned for the show after the show on YouTube.

[Jason Moore]

And always check out fantasyjocks.com because Dakota's footballers. It's where winners go. We'll see you on Thursday.

[David Johnson]

Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the Ffballers.