Summary of "Fantasy Footballers Podcast 2017 - The TRUTH About Fantasy RB's in 2016, Part 1"

Release Date: January 16, 2017
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
Title: Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast

Introduction

In this episode, the Fantasy Footballers delve deep into the performance and consistency of running backs (RBs) from the 2016 NFL season, aiming to provide listeners with insightful analysis to aid their fantasy football drafts for the upcoming year. The hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright, break down the top RBs based on their week-to-week consistency, overall performance, and potential for the next season.

Setting the Stage: Importance of Consistency

Andy Holloway emphasizes the significance of consistency in evaluating RBs:
“When I talk about the truth, we're talking about consistency at the running back position where the top finishers actually finished in the rankings compared to what they gave you week in and week out.” (03:00)

The trio plans to examine 10-12 RBs, assessing their weekly performances, consistency rankings, and how they fared against varying defensive strengths.

Top Tier Running Backs

1. David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott

Both David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott are lauded for their remarkable consistency:

• David Johnson:
  “David Johnson has zero games outside of the top 48.” (18:33)
  Stats: 293 carries, 1,239 yards, 16 rushing touchdowns, 80 receptions for 879 yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns.
  Highlights:

  • Consistency: Top 25 in 15 out of 16 games.
  • Versatility: Strong performance in both rushing and receiving.

• Ezekiel Elliott:
  “Ezekiel Elliott was the only running back in 2016 to surpass 10 fantasy points in every single game.” (18:33)
  Stats: Similar to Johnson with slight differences in yards and receptions.
  Highlights:

  • Reliability: Consistently high-performing weeks without significant drops.

Comparative Insights:
Both RBs demonstrated exceptional consistency, making them top choices for standard and PPR (Point Per Reception) leagues. Mike Wright notes, “I would want Zeke potentially in a standard format and I would want David Johnson in a PPR format because obviously there's about a 50 reception gap between these two guys.” (19:02)

2. Le'Veon Bell

Le'Veon Bell, the third on the consistency list, showcases outstanding reliability:
“Le'Veon Bell averaged about seven more points than the other two guys are against bottom half defenses versus top.” (26:32)

Highlights:

• Consistency: Top 25 in all 12 games he played.
• Scoring Ability: While not a touchdown machine, his balanced rushing and receiving stats make him a dependable RB1 in PPR leagues.

Conclusion:
Bell's consistent performance across varying defensive matchups solidifies his position as a top-tier RB, despite fewer touchdowns compared to his peers.

Mid-Tier Running Backs

3. LaShawn McCoy

Identified as one of the biggest steals in the 2016 draft: “LaShawn McCoy was one of the biggest steals in the draft. His ADP of 26, ended up the fourth-ranked running back.” (27:37)

Highlights:

• Performance: Consistent with 13 out of 16 games in the top 25.
• Potential Concerns: Coaching changes with Sean McDermott taking over the Bills potentially impacting his role.

Insights:
Jason Moore expresses optimism about McCoy’s future despite uncertainties, stating, “They know that LaShawn McCoy is the best option to go to for that offense. So he's going to get fed regardless.” (28:03)

4. Melvin Gordon

Melvin Gordon is praised for his explosive capabilities: “He was, you know, he was a number four in standard, number three in PPR for consistency.” (38:24)

Highlights:

• Consistency: 12 out of 13 games in the top 25.
• Versatility: 41 receptions for 419 yards, contributing significantly in both rushing and receiving.

Potential Risks:
Mike Wright notes concerns about workload and offensive changes, but overall, Gordon remains a solid pick:
“I think he'll get me. Who's going to get in the end zone there? They're not handing it to Brandon Oliver. Brandon Oliver is going to be inactive next year.” (40:54)

5. Devonta Freeman

Devonta Freeman's performance is scrutinized, especially in relation to teammate Tevin Coleman's injuries: “Devonta Freeman had more fantasy production on average in games that Tevin Coleman played than in the ones he was out.” (35:04)
“Freeman was the second-round pick.” (37:37)

Highlights:

• Consistency: 13 out of 16 games in the top 25.
• Performance: Despite sharing the backfield, Freeman maintained strong production, often overshadowing Tevin Coleman's limited games.

Insights:
The hosts discuss the durability and workload of Freeman, concluding that he remains a viable RB2 option.

Lower-Tier Running Backs

6. Mark Ingram

Mark Ingram presents a mixed bag: “Despite finishing as the RB10 in standard scoring, Mark Ingram had six weeks of scoring seven points or fewer, which kills your owners.” (46:38)

Highlights:

• Performance: 205 carries, 5.1 yards per carry (best of his career).
• Inconsistency: Several low-scoring weeks due to offensive fluctuations and sharing the workload with other RBs like C.J. Anderson.

Insights:
Jason Moore remains optimistic about Ingram’s potential, advocating for his inclusion in mid-round picks:
“I still want Mark Ingram on my team. I think that he is a very good running back.” (48:52)

7. Jordan Howard

Jordan Howard's rookie season impresses despite being undrafted: “He was a, you know, not drafted. He was an undrafted player and so he played great against bottom defenses and top defenses.” (50:07)

Highlights:

• Performance: 260 carries, 1,200+ yards, eight touchdowns.
• Consistency: 13 out of 16 games in the top 25, showcasing versatility and breakout potential.

Insights:
While impressive, the hosts express caution about drafting Howard in the first round due to his undrafted status:
“I would take Melvin Gordon as well. I wouldn't take Jordan Howard in the first round next year.” (51:31)

Evaluating Against Defenses

Andy Holloway provides an analysis of how the RBs performed against top versus bottom defenses:

“Both Zeke and David Johnson averaged about three or four points more against bottom 16 rushing defenses, as you might expect.” (26:32)
“Le'Veon Bell averaged about seven more points than the other two guys are against bottom half defenses versus top.” (26:32)

Key Takeaway:
Bell's ability to capitalize against weaker defenses without sacrificing performance against stronger ones gives him an edge in consistency.

Potential Pitfalls and Future Outlook

The hosts discuss potential changes for the next season that could impact RB performance:

• Coaching Changes:
  "They could have had Ryan Fitzpatrick. So hit the bricks, Tim Tebow." (14:30)
  Changes can disrupt established offensive schemes, affecting RB opportunities and consistency.

• Injury Concerns:
  "Maybe there's an injury concern because he has missed time. I don't have an injury concern with Le'Veon Bell." (25:21)

• Team Dynamics:
  Teams not being playoff contenders can influence RB usage and fantasy value.
  “Le'Veon Bell, Le'Veon Bell averaged about seven more points than the other two guys are against bottom half defenses versus top.” (26:32)
  “Of the top 10, how many were on a playoff team?... only four out of the top 10 were on playoff teams.” (52:37)

Conclusion:
While individual RB performance remains crucial, team success and coaching strategies play a significant role in fantasy value. Owners are advised to consider both individual consistency and team dynamics when drafting RBs.

Concluding Remarks

Andy Holloway summarizes by urging listeners to focus on RB consistency and not just end-of-year rankings:

“You want perspective on how they performed, how consistent they were so you can build your roster the right way. Because we're about equipping you to build a championship roster.” (17:18)

The hosts wrap up by previewing future episodes, promising more in-depth analysis of RB performance and additional strategic insights for fantasy football enthusiasts.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Andy Holloway:
  “When I talk about the truth, we're talking about consistency at the running back position where the top finishers actually finished in the rankings compared to what they gave you week in and week out.” (03:00)

• Mike Wright:
  “I would want Zeke potentially in a standard format and I would want David Johnson in a PPR format because obviously there's about a 50 reception gap between these two guys.” (19:02)

• Jason Moore:
  “He was a very good running back. I still want Mark Ingram on my team.” (48:52)

• Andy Holloway:
  “You don't want that split to be outrageous.” (26:35)

Final Thoughts

This episode serves as a comprehensive guide for fantasy football managers, emphasizing the importance of RB consistency and providing a nuanced analysis of each player's performance. By dissecting individual stats, team dynamics, and potential future developments, the Fantasy Footballers equip their audience with the knowledge to make informed decisions in their fantasy drafts.

For more detailed statistics and ongoing discussions, listeners are encouraged to visit thefantasyfootballers.com and join the community at jointhefoot.com.