Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - The TRUTH About Fantasy RB's in 2016, Part 1

Summary

Summary of "Fantasy Footballers Podcast 2017 - The TRUTH About Fantasy RB's in 2016, Part 1"

Release Date: January 16, 2017
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
Title: Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast

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Introduction

In this episode, the Fantasy Footballers delve deep into the performance and consistency of running backs (RBs) from the 2016 NFL season, aiming to provide listeners with insightful analysis to aid their fantasy football drafts for the upcoming year. The hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright, break down the top RBs based on their week-to-week consistency, overall performance, and potential for the next season.

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Setting the Stage: Importance of Consistency

Andy Holloway emphasizes the significance of consistency in evaluating RBs:
“When I talk about the truth, we're talking about consistency at the running back position where the top finishers actually finished in the rankings compared to what they gave you week in and week out.” (03:00)

The trio plans to examine 10-12 RBs, assessing their weekly performances, consistency rankings, and how they fared against varying defensive strengths.

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Top Tier Running Backs

1. David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott

Both David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott are lauded for their remarkable consistency:

• David Johnson:
  “David Johnson has zero games outside of the top 48.” (18:33)
  Stats: 293 carries, 1,239 yards, 16 rushing touchdowns, 80 receptions for 879 yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns.
  Highlights:

  • Consistency: Top 25 in 15 out of 16 games.
  • Versatility: Strong performance in both rushing and receiving.

• Ezekiel Elliott:
  “Ezekiel Elliott was the only running back in 2016 to surpass 10 fantasy points in every single game.” (18:33)
  Stats: Similar to Johnson with slight differences in yards and receptions.
  Highlights:

  • Reliability: Consistently high-performing weeks without significant drops.

Comparative Insights:
Both RBs demonstrated exceptional consistency, making them top choices for standard and PPR (Point Per Reception) leagues. Mike Wright notes, “I would want Zeke potentially in a standard format and I would want David Johnson in a PPR format because obviously there's about a 50 reception gap between these two guys.” (19:02)

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2. Le'Veon Bell

Le'Veon Bell, the third on the consistency list, showcases outstanding reliability:
“Le'Veon Bell averaged about seven more points than the other two guys are against bottom half defenses versus top.” (26:32)

Highlights:

• Consistency: Top 25 in all 12 games he played.
• Scoring Ability: While not a touchdown machine, his balanced rushing and receiving stats make him a dependable RB1 in PPR leagues.

Conclusion:
Bell's consistent performance across varying defensive matchups solidifies his position as a top-tier RB, despite fewer touchdowns compared to his peers.

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Mid-Tier Running Backs

3. LaShawn McCoy

Identified as one of the biggest steals in the 2016 draft: “LaShawn McCoy was one of the biggest steals in the draft. His ADP of 26, ended up the fourth-ranked running back.” (27:37)

Highlights:

• Performance: Consistent with 13 out of 16 games in the top 25.
• Potential Concerns: Coaching changes with Sean McDermott taking over the Bills potentially impacting his role.

Insights:
Jason Moore expresses optimism about McCoy’s future despite uncertainties, stating, “They know that LaShawn McCoy is the best option to go to for that offense. So he's going to get fed regardless.” (28:03)

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4. Melvin Gordon

Melvin Gordon is praised for his explosive capabilities: “He was, you know, he was a number four in standard, number three in PPR for consistency.” (38:24)

Highlights:

• Consistency: 12 out of 13 games in the top 25.
• Versatility: 41 receptions for 419 yards, contributing significantly in both rushing and receiving.

Potential Risks:
Mike Wright notes concerns about workload and offensive changes, but overall, Gordon remains a solid pick:
“I think he'll get me. Who's going to get in the end zone there? They're not handing it to Brandon Oliver. Brandon Oliver is going to be inactive next year.” (40:54)

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5. Devonta Freeman

Devonta Freeman's performance is scrutinized, especially in relation to teammate Tevin Coleman's injuries: “Devonta Freeman had more fantasy production on average in games that Tevin Coleman played than in the ones he was out.” (35:04)
“Freeman was the second-round pick.” (37:37)

Highlights:

• Consistency: 13 out of 16 games in the top 25.
• Performance: Despite sharing the backfield, Freeman maintained strong production, often overshadowing Tevin Coleman's limited games.

Insights:
The hosts discuss the durability and workload of Freeman, concluding that he remains a viable RB2 option.

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Lower-Tier Running Backs

6. Mark Ingram

Mark Ingram presents a mixed bag: “Despite finishing as the RB10 in standard scoring, Mark Ingram had six weeks of scoring seven points or fewer, which kills your owners.” (46:38)

Highlights:

• Performance: 205 carries, 5.1 yards per carry (best of his career).
• Inconsistency: Several low-scoring weeks due to offensive fluctuations and sharing the workload with other RBs like C.J. Anderson.

Insights:
Jason Moore remains optimistic about Ingram’s potential, advocating for his inclusion in mid-round picks:
“I still want Mark Ingram on my team. I think that he is a very good running back.” (48:52)

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7. Jordan Howard

Jordan Howard's rookie season impresses despite being undrafted: “He was a, you know, not drafted. He was an undrafted player and so he played great against bottom defenses and top defenses.” (50:07)

Highlights:

• Performance: 260 carries, 1,200+ yards, eight touchdowns.
• Consistency: 13 out of 16 games in the top 25, showcasing versatility and breakout potential.

Insights:
While impressive, the hosts express caution about drafting Howard in the first round due to his undrafted status:
“I would take Melvin Gordon as well. I wouldn't take Jordan Howard in the first round next year.” (51:31)

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Evaluating Against Defenses

Andy Holloway provides an analysis of how the RBs performed against top versus bottom defenses:

“Both Zeke and David Johnson averaged about three or four points more against bottom 16 rushing defenses, as you might expect.” (26:32)
“Le'Veon Bell averaged about seven more points than the other two guys are against bottom half defenses versus top.” (26:32)

Key Takeaway:
Bell's ability to capitalize against weaker defenses without sacrificing performance against stronger ones gives him an edge in consistency.

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Potential Pitfalls and Future Outlook

The hosts discuss potential changes for the next season that could impact RB performance:

• Coaching Changes:
  "They could have had Ryan Fitzpatrick. So hit the bricks, Tim Tebow." (14:30)
  Changes can disrupt established offensive schemes, affecting RB opportunities and consistency.

• Injury Concerns:
  "Maybe there's an injury concern because he has missed time. I don't have an injury concern with Le'Veon Bell." (25:21)

• Team Dynamics:
  Teams not being playoff contenders can influence RB usage and fantasy value.
  “Le'Veon Bell, Le'Veon Bell averaged about seven more points than the other two guys are against bottom half defenses versus top.” (26:32)
  “Of the top 10, how many were on a playoff team?... only four out of the top 10 were on playoff teams.” (52:37)

Conclusion:
While individual RB performance remains crucial, team success and coaching strategies play a significant role in fantasy value. Owners are advised to consider both individual consistency and team dynamics when drafting RBs.

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Concluding Remarks

Andy Holloway summarizes by urging listeners to focus on RB consistency and not just end-of-year rankings:

“You want perspective on how they performed, how consistent they were so you can build your roster the right way. Because we're about equipping you to build a championship roster.” (17:18)

The hosts wrap up by previewing future episodes, promising more in-depth analysis of RB performance and additional strategic insights for fantasy football enthusiasts.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Andy Holloway:
  “When I talk about the truth, we're talking about consistency at the running back position where the top finishers actually finished in the rankings compared to what they gave you week in and week out.” (03:00)

• Mike Wright:
  “I would want Zeke potentially in a standard format and I would want David Johnson in a PPR format because obviously there's about a 50 reception gap between these two guys.” (19:02)

• Jason Moore:
  “He was a very good running back. I still want Mark Ingram on my team.” (48:52)

• Andy Holloway:
  “You don't want that split to be outrageous.” (26:35)

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Final Thoughts

This episode serves as a comprehensive guide for fantasy football managers, emphasizing the importance of RB consistency and providing a nuanced analysis of each player's performance. By dissecting individual stats, team dynamics, and potential future developments, the Fantasy Footballers equip their audience with the knowledge to make informed decisions in their fantasy drafts.

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For more detailed statistics and ongoing discussions, listeners are encouraged to visit thefantasyfootballers.com and join the community at jointhefoot.com.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, before we start today's show, I just want to remind you about jointhefoot.com where you can find leagues exclusive to your local area. You can find online leagues, dynasty leagues, all different kinds of leagues with listeners from this show. We had a number of these leagues last year and they were a lot of fun, good, competitive players. Not those leagues where people drop out and don't know what they're doing. These are fun leagues, engaging leagues for listeners of the show. So you can get that and access to a ton of other things like exclusive episodes and our [e-mail] check it out.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome to the fantasy Footballers podcast coming to you from the fantasyjocks.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in. Thank you, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, well, welcome to you.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you, Andy. I'm glad to be here. I'm glad you're here.

[Andy Holloway]

How you doing today?

[Mike Wright]

Doing? Doing very well.

[Andy Holloway]

Checking your shirt, seeing if there's any wrinkles. Probably your hair wasn't done when you got in here.

[Mike Wright]

Complete mess.

[Andy Holloway]

Roll off a park bench.

[Jason Moore]

That's funny. This morning was rough for me too. I must have hit snooze three times. I mean, I could not get out of the bed.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, neither could my son, which put my wife into rush mode. Oh, no. Rush mode's tough.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

You don't like rush mode, you got to be on board and help help her when it's rush mode or you'll be left behind.

[Jason Moore]

Because you had your kids at the school again today.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. What, yours don't have school?

[Jason Moore]

They do not.

[Mike Wright]

It's so weird.

[Jason Moore]

It's teacher prep day.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. I thought you got like a two day mlk.

[Jason Moore]

No. Well, I mean, basically. But the teachers go back and welcome.

[Andy Holloway]

To the podcast, the fantasy footballers, Andy, Mike and Jason back again.

[Jason Moore]

Again.

[Mike Wright]

We ain't never leaving.

[Andy Holloway]

No. Whether you like it or not, we're here and we have a great show. We're breaking down the truth Fantasy running backs this week. Always fun. Last week, the wide receiver episodes, very popular. All the best episodes. Very good.

[Jason Moore]

That's timely.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah, it is, isn't it? So we're very excited about that. We're going to break down probably 10 to 12 names today. And when I talk about the truth, we're talking about consistency at the running back position where the top finishers actually finished in the rankings compared to what they gave you week in and week out. There are some very interesting names and rankings and in terms of guys that, you know, did they lay an Egg more often than not. Or did they finish in that top 25? The top five on a week to week basis. I'm going to throw a teaser out there. Interesting numbers for LeGarrett blunt. Interesting numbers for. Will be an interesting. I think the blunt Dion Lewis running back situation in New England is a. Is a quagmire.

[Jason Moore]

Oh yes.

[Andy Holloway]

For next season especially.

[Jason Moore]

I mean the way that LeGarrett blunt finish the season.

[Andy Holloway]

But now and James White's in the back seat. He's along for the ride.

[Jason Moore]

It's not over because we're still watching the Patriots play football and we're watching their offense evolve or I guess regress, I don't know. Return to the norm of last year when Dion Lewis was the man.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I was so close to grabbing Dion Lewis for the playoff challenge and I went legarrett Blunt.

[Andy Holloway]

I picked wrong the offense. You can almost visualize it as one of those shape shifters. You know, it just never stays in one. Never stays in one form. It's just always changing the next time you look at it. Which makes it really exciting for fantasy football players who don't own Tom Brady. So we'll get into the truth. Today we have a little bit of news. We're breaking down update on our playoff brackets. It's basically we have a bet going on where the the two losers of the playoff bracket in this studio have to eat. What?

[Jason Moore]

Eat this? A lunch bet.

[Andy Holloway]

It's a lunch bet. So the winner will get to choose the lunches for the two losers for a week. It basically breaks down to this. Jason is going to be eating lunch. I'm out from either because he went with the Giants. He took the big shot. I mean that I applaud you for that.

[Jason Moore]

It's admirable. And sometimes stupidity is admirable.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure, Absolutely. Just, you know, you can get on the yacht down in Florida.

[Mike Wright]

The first 40% of that game looked real promising.

[Andy Holloway]

Why?

[Jason Moore]

You good?

[Andy Holloway]

Unfortunately, 100% of your lunch is not going to be promising. Basically for Mike and I, it breaks down to now I lost the Oakland, but it's not going to matter much if New England wins the Super Bowl. I'm going to be choosing lunches. If New England does not win the Super Bowl, Mike's going to win.

[Mike Wright]

And if either of the other teams win the super bowl that are in contention, Mike wins.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's what I was going to say. So you have anybody else? I've got a one in four shot here.

[Mike Wright]

Let's be honest.

[Andy Holloway]

It's the Patriots so 50. 50. All right, quick question of the day, gentlemen. This is a question from Raphael in Switzerland.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, bonjour. I love Michael Keaton.

[Andy Holloway]

At the moment, we are a league of six. I had a listener, by the way, who said when they accidentally said something at the same time at their work and they just yelled out, I love Michael Keaton. Nobody knew what was going on.

[Mike Wright]

That's the listener of the week.

[Jason Moore]

When you, when you're changing the world, it's. You got to start small, Right?

[Andy Holloway]

Right. All right. Raphael in Switzerland says, at the moment we are a league of only six teams. We're going to expand it to eight teams. You can retain one keeper. What do we do for the two new teams? So basically the question in general is, how do you expand a keeper league?

[Jason Moore]

I know what I would do.

[Mike Wright]

I know what I would do as well.

[Jason Moore]

And this one I think is it could be a little bit different than how I would treat a larger A10 team expanding to 12. Because it's only six teams, each of you already have your keeper. Once the draft order is set, those two new teams get picks, one, get an extra pick, one and two. Then they get their third spot back in the normal draft order because it's only six.

[Andy Holloway]

In essence, that's an expansion draft.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, and exactly. Expanding the draft because there's only the six keepers. You're. I don't think you are destroying the balance of. And taking away from what you earned by grabbing this keeper last year. There's just, there's enough talent that you can do this, I think, without shaking things up too much.

[Andy Holloway]

If I have some other recommendations. If you have a larger league and you don't want to shake up the talent too much, I would recommend you could put a keeper expansion picks in between the first and second round. If you don't want to give somebody, you know, redundant picks, you could give them, you know, something in the, in between the first and second round. If you want people to pick their keepers at that position, you can limit keeper selections to position specific. So they can't pick three running backs or three wide receivers. There are different ways to do it. When we expanded, we did an expansion draft. It was, you know, we had a three keeper league, so there were six picks and you couldn't choose the same position. Those teams set their keepers and then the draft went on as normal.

[Mike Wright]

Expansion drafts are the best. But the question that I think makes it hard is when you're a keeper league where you keep a person for draft value of the last year, what do you do then and really you can, you can in essence do the same thing because you can give them the values of the people who were drafted last year. If you've got a record of your last year's draft and then they would draft those players, you could do that at that value.

[Jason Moore]

My money keeper league, we actually do it a little bit different. I've talked about it before about the cost that you have to give up to keep a player is actually it's adp, but then we have pretty strict rules about who can be kept. However, new teams I guess if you're taking over a team so this isn't an expansion. So I guess my examples a little out there. But however I'm already in it so I'm going to continue to walk you through it. So you take over a team, you are given the option of keeper restrictions are lifted and you can keep a guy who's being drafted in the first, but you can only keep them for one year. You do not retain their rights moving forward. Just kind of an extra push, a jump start so to speak for new teams.

[Andy Holloway]

Before we jump into the news, want to remind everybody we are on YouTube. The show after the show is back for this whole off season time period. So we'll have a show after the show. We got some good topics after every single episode. So you can catch Those only on YouTube. We're on Twitter @the FF bot. What is today's topic? Is that what you wanted to get into?

[Mike Wright]

Yes, today's topic. We're gonna talk about some movies.

[Jason Moore]

Is that today?

[Mike Wright]

That's gotta be today. I want to talk about movies that some of us here may have cried at. And I'm telling you it's. It's some good stuff.

[Jason Moore]

Number five may shock you.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Aladdin always gets you, doesn't it?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. All right, keep one step ahead.

[Andy Holloway]

Follow us on Twitter the FFballers. You get all the latest information. We have a ton of articles coming out all off season. We have 20, these 25 stat articles that are great at each position. They're basically an onslaught of surprising statistics that will illuminate the past year. And those are all on thefantasyfootballers.com and our community is jointhefoot.com let's go ahead and get into the news.

[Mike Wright]

News and notes from around the league.

[Andy Holloway]

Obviously had the two big games or the four big games.

[Jason Moore]

Oh my goodness.

[Andy Holloway]

This past weekend.

[Jason Moore]

I hope you were watching football this weekend.

[Mike Wright]

What a great, great weekend of NFL.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you know they had the games where you didn't really want either team to have to go home. They didn't feel like they deserved to go home. It's tough, tough stuff for Kansas City and Dallas, who earned high seeds home field advantage and their season just ends. And I tweeted out, I said, look, Pittsburgh always gets its way. Super Bowl 43. I'm still bitter. Never, never gonna let it go.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think they get their way because now they get to go play Tommy Touchdown.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, that's just AFC rules. That's in the rulebook now. So exciting games. Obviously now you have Green Bay taking on the Falcons. You have Pittsburgh traveling to New England now that, you know, you have kind of a reset. I know we have our brackets already predetermined, but they don't include Pittsburgh and Green Bay for any of our brackets. So at this point, I want to hear your prediction on these games.

[Mike Wright]

At this point, if I were to redo my bracket over, I would certainly be taking the Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots in the super bowl and I would take the New England Patriots over them.

[Andy Holloway]

So I'm the same as you. So, Mike, what do you have?

[Jason Moore]

I'm sticking with my bracket. I got the Falcons and the Patriots in the big dance and I have the Falcons winning.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, well, it's going to be exciting. Got some offenses. The over under in the Atlanta Green bay game is 60. 60.

[Mike Wright]

That's unbelievable.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you say unbelievable?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I probably did.

[Andy Holloway]

That's understandable.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, Playoff news. Good old Julio Jones has always got something sprained.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, he left that game early.

[Andy Holloway]

I know. Ready to rock on Sunday. According to Dan Quinn.

[Jason Moore]

For how long?

[Andy Holloway]

There's a chance Jordy Nelson comes back this week.

[Mike Wright]

Stop.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know why you're so. I mean, this happens all the time, Mike. People come back and wear, you know, they wear a flak jacket. They come back from broken ribs. Why are you so skeptical?

[Jason Moore]

Here's the thing. Let's say Jordan Nelson has two broken ribs, right? And I'm a defender, which he does.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Easy to easy. Okay.

[Jason Moore]

And I am a defender. You think? I'm not punching him in the ribs.

[Andy Holloway]

Doesn't matter.

[Jason Moore]

It does matter.

[Andy Holloway]

It doesn't matter if he plays.

[Mike Wright]

How would that not matter?

[Andy Holloway]

Because it's a hypothetical. Some guy's going to punch him in the ribs. If he's on the field, he's going to make a difference for this team. Yeah. And he's probably going to play. No, he is not going to make a negative difference for the team. Are you kidding me? You have to guard Jordy Nelson.

[Jason Moore]

Not if you give him one or two good shots. It's like boxing, man. Why do you punch a guy in the ribs? Because they become ineffective.

[Andy Holloway]

I think it is poor analysis to say if Jordy Nelson suits up, he is a negative because somebody might punch him in the ribs. I mean, they wear. Quarterbacks have played with broken ribs before. They wear a flak jacket. They get hit a bunch. They still play. It just hurts.

[Jason Moore]

Quarterbacks don't have to run around.

[Andy Holloway]

All right? If Jordy's out there, I'm taking the position that he's good for them.

[Jason Moore]

Okay?

[Mike Wright]

I mean, that's bad analysis or not. If Jordy's out there, I think it's bad for the packers and I don't think Jordy would be out there.

[Andy Holloway]

You guys are both.

[Mike Wright]

If you go up across the middle and try to grab a ball with two broken ribs and then get punched, you're going to drop that ball.

[Andy Holloway]

Ifs and buts.

[Mike Wright]

Well, we'll see. He's not going to be out. That's my analysis, is he's not going to be playing in that game.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, so you're contradicting the news from espn.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, well, the news is that there's legitimate hope. And I'm saying.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, Tony Romo. Trading Tony Romo will be the Cowboys number one priority this offseason. He wants to go to Denver. I don't think Denver wants him. If I was Denver, I don't think I want him.

[Mike Wright]

Who wants him?

[Andy Holloway]

That's the question we were debating before the show today.

[Jason Moore]

A lot of people depends on the price. I'll say for Denver, it could just be posturing by them. Because if Denver can get Tony Romo on the cheap.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I don't think they will. You can't get them on the cheap. You're going to have to pay at least a second round pick. And no way Denver does it after they have Simeon. They have Paxton lynch. And last offseason showed me what Denver wanted to do. They had the opportunity to get veteran quarterbacks last offseason. They 100% chose not to do that. I don't see them as a destination.

[Jason Moore]

But did they. Was anyone available of Tony Romo's caliber?

[Mike Wright]

You kidding me? There was a guy available who is the most winning playoff quarterback of all time that hasn't reached the Super Bowl. And they went and they got him.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, they did Mark Sanchez and they cut him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, they could have had. I know now it looks stupid, but last off Season. It didn't. They could have had Ryan Fitzpatrick.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

They. I'm just telling you my opinion on that. Apparently, we disagree on everything today. Well, the jets are a destination.

[Jason Moore]

What I was going to say is we've. We've seen John Elway, you know, shake things up. They had Tim Tebow and granted, Tim Tebow is not the best quarterback, but he was coming off a playoff victory and he said, nah, I can get Peyton Manning. So hit the bricks, Tim Tebow. So it would not shock me if either. They're like, well, we'll see you later, Trevor Simeon. I don't care that we drafted Paxton lynch in the first because we can get Tony Romo, who is a.

[Andy Holloway]

What do you make of Chip Kelly being rumored as a Jaguar offensive coordinator?

[Jason Moore]

Love it.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I do, too. I think it's one of those things where some people say there's no talent at the running back position for the Jaguars. I disagree. I know you Disagree, Andy. You're Mr. T.J. yeldin, but. Well, I mean, of the three of us, you have always been. Been pretty high on him. But their opportunities haven't been there in the running game. They. They move away from the running game over and over and over and over. That's just their game script. And I think Chip Kelly would really help the running game, help the total plays being called, change things up for the offense. I would like it a lot.

[Andy Holloway]

Chip Kelly is starting to. To me, he's. He was a beautiful statue that's rolling down a hill and like the arm is falling off and then the leg is falling off. Like the shine is off of Chip Kelly.

[Jason Moore]

For me, the Venus de Milo looks pretty good without her arms.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, yeah, I guess I'm not on the. On board with, with Chip Kelly, but no surprise today as an oc, I think.

[Mike Wright]

I think he would be a better OC than a head coach.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, that won't be hard.

[Jason Moore]

You want answers? I think I'm entitled.

[Andy Holloway]

You want answers? I want the truth.

[Jason Moore]

You can't handle the truth.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's get into the truth about fantasy running backs in 2016. The way we do this is we go in order of half point PPR rankings and we'll break down how these guys performed. We'll tell you how many top five performances they had, how many top 25 they had, and how many weeks they gave you. Nada. A bust type of week. Something where you could have replaced the waiver wire running back or something you find on the side of the road would have scored more points. Than these guys. And then we'll talk about how they performed against top 16 and bottom 16 rushing defenses and kind of give you the lay of the land. And the reason we do this is we want you to have the right perspective going into next season's draft. So you're not just looking at the end of year rankings and saying this is the order I go in. You want perspective on how they performed, how consistent they were so you can build your roster the right way. Because we're about equipping you to build a championship roster.

[Jason Moore]

For example, Julian Edelman was not very consistent on a week to week basis. He had a good stretch there, but his end of season ranking, week 17 just had just a monster, monster game, about three games worth of production that skyrocketed him into the final rankings. And you look, oh well, Julian Edelman, I have to have him. But perhaps not absolutely.

[Andy Holloway]

So that being said, at the top of the top of the charts here, David Johnson is number one, Ezekiel Elliott is number two. And these guys were not lacking for consistency. They are a true number one and number two this season. So David Johnson was number one. Look at these numbers, guys. 293 for 1239 yards, 16 touchdowns on the ground. And then you just throw in some numbers that are better than, I don't know, Brandon Marshall at the receiving position, 80 for 879 and four touchdowns on 120 targets out of the backfield. Avoided the injury at the very end of the year, a major injury that is. And so he was number one in consistency rankings. Zero dud games, 15 of 16 games in the top 25.

[Mike Wright]

And that.

[Andy Holloway]

So that's good.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that was identical to Ezekiel Elliott who was tied with him, 15 top 25s, 0 not in the top 48. And in fact in standard leagues. This is a little nugget from our 25 running back statistics article. But Ezekiel Elliott was the only running back in 2016 to surpass 10 fantasy points in every single game. You did not have one game without double digit production from Zeke.

[Andy Holloway]

Would David Johnson have done that if it wasn't for the injury in the final game?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he certainly was.

[Andy Holloway]

Was that the one game where he didn't?

[Mike Wright]

Yes, that was the one game where he didn't. And what's crazy is he only played. He barely played in that game before he got injured and you still see that he has that. We just said David Johnson has zero games outside of the top 48.

[Jason Moore]

He was still number 45 on the.

[Mike Wright]

Week in like a quarter, less than A quarter of the game he was.

[Andy Holloway]

To me, it breaks down into. I would want Zeke potentially in a standard format and I would want David Johnson in a PPR format because obviously there's a, you know, about a 50 reception gap between these two guys. Zeke had a lot more carries, a lot more yardage, and about the same rushing touchdowns. Do you feel that way or are you guys all on board with one guy no matter what the format is?

[Jason Moore]

No, it's. You're going to be going back and forth for me between.

[Andy Holloway]

And there's no reason they can't repeat these numbers for a few years.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

And I agree with that. I don't think it's an automatic. Well, it's standard. So we go with Elliot. I mean, David Johnson had had more. Not just more rushing touchdowns, but he had how many more? 5. Am I doing that right?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know what you're doing.

[Jason Moore]

No, no. He had four more total touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Total touchdowns. He did. He was 400 yards less than Zeke and had about 30 less carries. The way that the offensive line in Dallas is. I guess that's why I'm thinking, you know, maybe you lean Zeke in a standard. Maybe I. With those reception totals, it's not like it doesn't count in standards. So.

[Jason Moore]

Right in the. What's interesting, at least the way it was perceived by me watching, watching Dallas this year. Yes. Elliott is, I mean, he's a focal point of the offense. But you saw Dak growing as a quarterback this entire year. He played a lot without DEZ Bryant. And then Des really got going. You saw him in the playoff game. I mean, over 100 yards, two touchdowns. It's not going to be just Elliott. Where to me, Arizona, they did the complete opposite. Where they were a. A downfield passing attack. And everything of their offense just said, well, we're going to go to David Johnson now.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I, you know, I'll be honest. It's splitting hairs for me.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Going into next year.

[Jason Moore]

But it's going to be.

[Andy Holloway]

I can write a complete story on why either one.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. So, yeah. And I completely agree. I will say this. Going into the draft next year, if I've got the number one pick, for me, it's not going to be David Johnson. For me, it's not going to be Ezekiel Elliott. It's going to be the third guy on this list.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. It is for me, too.

[Mike Wright]

Le'Veon Bell.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, before we get into Le'Veon Bell, we do need to pause and thank today's sponsor, pristineauction. Dot com. Let me tell you one of the things I love about Pristine Auction you hear us talk about, but what I love about sports memorabilia, autographed authentic memorabilia at Pristine Auction is it is not all vanilla. It's not all Alex Smith over there. Okay? You've got unique products and an example of that is we have our February giveaway on jointhefoot.com that we just released the items for. Every month we give away items and we get some things from Pristine Auction. Well, we have a matte green Randall Cobb autographed helmet that's an example of. Okay, it's not just the traditional helmet. They have unique helmets, unique items that are just kind of distinctive and look especially cool in your man cave, at your office, whatever, wherever you want to celebrate your season or your team. They're very unique items. They're eye catching items and they're affordable and great with great players. I mean, this is exactly why we put them into every single giveaway. This is why we talk about them all the time. You can trust them. They're authentic, certified and always have unique daily auctions on there. So take the chance to go over pristineauction.com completely free to browse and check it all out. See the kind of deals you can get on unique items like those matte helmets like the Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott memorabilia. If you want to stick that on the wall for the next 15 years, which it seems like cowboys fans can do. So check it out. Pristineauction.com that's P R I S T I N E auction.com let them know the fantasy footballer sent you.

[Mike Wright]

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[Andy Holloway]

All right, back to Le'Veon Bell and I think it's, you know, it's unfair to talk about David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott and not talk about Le'Veon Bell because his consistency rating might not have mathematically been identical, but it's identical. I mean, he played 12 games. He was top 25 in all 12. You know, these, all three of these guys was basically 100% consistent.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Which is kind of unprecedented for the running back position in the last few years.

[Mike Wright]

What I love about Le'Veon Bell's consistency versus David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott's consistency is that some people talked about the fact that Levy on Bell didn't score that many touchdowns this year. Right. I mean, on the ground he had.

[Jason Moore]

Norm on a. I would say in general, Evian Bell isn't known in his first few years as a just a touchdown machine.

[Mike Wright]

Right. Right.

[Andy Holloway]

He has seven on the ground and we know three of them came in one game.

[Mike Wright]

Right. And two through the air. And I actually like that in the sense that, I mean, I want obviously a lot of touchdowns. I hate touchdowns. But we can predict targets and yardage and things like that much easier than you can predict whether or not Legaria Legarrett Blunt's going to be on the one yard line two times or five times this game and get those touchdowns. Le'Veon Bell's done it for years. Yes. You have the narrative that maybe there's an injury concern because he has missed time. I don't have an injury concern with Le'Veon Bell. Maybe that's foolish, but I have none. And so next year Le'Veon Bell will be my number one pick. He is just too consistent, too central to that offense.

[Andy Holloway]

They figured out how to run with him. One of the unique things about Lev Bell, when you look at how all three of those guys performed against top and bottom defenses at the position, both Zeke and David Johnson averaged about three or four points more against bottom 16 rushing defenses, as you might expect.

[Jason Moore]

And that's, that's all Right. You just don't want that split to be outrageous.

[Andy Holloway]

But Le'Veon Bell, Le'Veon Bell averaged about seven more points than the other two guys are. Sorry, seven more points against bottom half defenses versus top. And so he took even more advantage of bad defenses. It wasn't at the expense of performing against good ones. It just was excessively good against bad ones. So he takes advantage of those. Obviously we saw what he did to Buffalo and those three guys, look, you don't need to talk a ton about them because there's not, there's not a secret to them as far as, ooh, you don't draft them. No, you draft them all and you.

[Mike Wright]

Can remember him going into next year.

[Andy Holloway]

Guys, draft them in whatever order you want. I mean, I do not care at this point. I do not care whatsoever because you might be right no matter what you pick. Let's move on to some of the names that are, I think a little bit more interesting. Will be more interesting in the draft next season. LaShawn McCoy was one of the biggest steals in the draft. His ad, slippery fish. The slippery fish himself. He was about, you know, ADP of 26, ended up the fourth ranked running back.

[Jason Moore]

That's great.

[Andy Holloway]

Was very consistent. He had one dud game, had 13 games in the top 25. You know, what's the story for LaShawn McCoy next year?

[Jason Moore]

I think it's, you know, business as usual. We'll see that with the coaching changes. Hopefully that doesn't shake things up too much. I think that whoever. Wait, do we. Who is it? I can't recall who took the Bills job.

[Andy Holloway]

I can't remember his last name. Well, go ahead, go ahead.

[Jason Moore]

Anyways, My point was McDermott, I think.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, there you go. I was going to say mix something.

[Mike Wright]

Sean McDermott.

[Jason Moore]

I'm sure they will. They know that LaShawn McCoy is the best option to go to for that offense. So he's, he's going to get fed regardless. But what will happen to the offensive line? What will the schemes be? Because that offensive line was. Rex Ryan took them out of the toilet. They were bad. Before Lashawn McCoy got there. I had concerns two years ago when Shady was traded to Buffalo. The line is so bad. However, when you look at Buffalo, what they were doing this year, they were amongst the tops or Shady was amongst the tops in yards before contacts. I mean the scheme with what they were doing was working. So hopefully they can continue moving along with that. And I think that he will be well worth his draft price.

[Mike Wright]

I will Say this. With Rex Ryan leaving, I had concerns with Rex Ryan leaving because he is a true. He's. I mean, we saw it this year, right? Shady got the ball. You know, every other play was shady. He was the centerpiece of that offense, without question. And that's kind of what Rex Ryan has always had and always wanted. With him leaving, it scares me because if you don't have that volume, you're a talented back. But opportunity is king in fantasy football. That being said, they brought in another defensive minded. They didn't, they didn't swing the pendulum too far. They brought in Sean McDermott from the Carolina Panthers, you know, as a defensive minded coach, which usually means running. So I think he's going to be okay next year, but he'll fall. I think his ADP will fall because of the coaching change. He might end up being an okay pick.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I, you know, they have other weapons there. They do, sure. They have Mike Gillisle. I'm saying Mike Gillisley is a restrictive free agent.

[Jason Moore]

He may or may not be.

[Andy Holloway]

They have Jonathan Williams too. And I'm just saying at the running back position, you talk about volume. He had almost 100 carries less than Ezekiel Elliott. So he, he wasn't somebody that got 300 plus carries. He's older. Okay. He has a tendency to break down in the middle of games. It seems like because of that they want to share the load with other guys. Maybe it's not Gillisle. Maybe Gillisley's back. I think there, this is just the tier you step into where there are more question marks. Can he repeat? Yes. Do you have variables? Injury, depth, chart, coaching change, those things? Yeah, I think you do. So is Jason right about him dropping? I think all of those reasons are reasons why he'll be lower, but he'll be like DeMarco Murray was or LaShawn McCoy was this year where, look, you take the risk and you hit. He's a home run. You take the risk and you miss. He probably just fulfills his draft value. So that makes him, I think, a good pick.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah, I can agree with that. So compare him to this year's demarco Murray in demarco Murray.

[Andy Holloway]

So are you telling me this year's demarco Murray was demarco Murray?

[Mike Wright]

That's what I'm telling you. This year's demarco Murray was demarco Murray.

[Andy Holloway]

That makes sense.

[Mike Wright]

And so he finished as a number five running back.

[Andy Holloway]

You're talking DeMarco now.

[Mike Wright]

DeMarco consistency. This year's this year's DeMarco.

[Andy Holloway]

This year's DeMarco.

[Mike Wright]

Talking about this year's DeMarco here.

[Andy Holloway]

Don't talk about last year's DeMarco.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no.

[Andy Holloway]

He had that. That offensive guru Chip Kelly running the show back then.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. So he was. He was the number four in standard, number three in PPR for consistency. Very, very consistent. In fact, I believe it was his. He had over 12 points his first 11 games. Something like that. He was very good. This year they have much less change. That's how I perceive. If you want to compare Shady, who was a great pick, and DeMarco, who was a great pick this last year, both guys that fell a little bit in the draft. You've got all the changes you just described with Shady. But coming up for DeMarco Murray, the only changes that are coming are perceived ones of saying maybe they should get Derek Henry more involved.

[Jason Moore]

I think that's a pretty big perceived change.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, but. But my point is it's perceived. People think. I think it might happen. The head coaching change. It happened. We're not saying they might make a head coaching change. No, no, no. That happened. Those type of things are not the same with DeMarco. I feel like there's a lot more.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you contending that this year's Demarco Murray might be next year's Demarco Murray?

[Mike Wright]

I am contending that he may be Demarco Murray.

[Andy Holloway]

Again, just for context, LaShawn McCoy is four months younger then Demarco Murray. They're both 28 years old. They still have obviously gas in the tank. I tend to lean much like if I had to choose between the two. I'm choosing DeMarco Murray. I buy much more into the narrative that Jason just spoke of with the lack of change, what the offense needs to be. To me, Henry is going to be that ancillary piece until Murray's time runs out there because Murray just offers so much more flexibility. Veteran, you know, he knows how to pass block. He knows how to catch the ball. I think he's going to be the guy that people are going to rumor the demise of and you're just going to see another year of status quo. So I buy into that myself.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So we would both take DeMarco Murray over shady next year.

[Andy Holloway]

I would.

[Mike Wright]

Moment.

[Andy Holloway]

I would.

[Mike Wright]

Mike, who would you pick as of.

[Jason Moore]

This moment right now?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that's very tough from an ADP perspective this year. You should have. You would have preferred to have DeMarco Murray than LaShawn McCoy as well because Murray was in the 40s, McCoy was in the 20s.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but I disagree with the. I think that Henry will be more. I'll be on that camp of Henry will be more involved. That's not going to say DeMarco Murray won't get 250 plus carries. It just means Henry is going to be more involved.

[Mike Wright]

I'm.

[Jason Moore]

I would be more concerned about Henry getting involved. Then I'll be worried about Jonathan Williams getting involved behind Shady.

[Andy Holloway]

Just get ready for John Williams. I've got him on my Dynasty team. So he's set.

[Mike Wright]

Here's a great.

[Jason Moore]

So it all comes out now.

[Mike Wright]

The truth. The truth.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, the truth. It spreads to all of us.

[Mike Wright]

You want some truth about running backs? Then let's talk about Devonta Freeman.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we need to move it down the line.

[Mike Wright]

Devonta Freeman is very, very interesting. He was the sixth ranked running back. And the question this year, coming into this year, the question that will definitely be going into next year is Tevin Coleman.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

What do you do when Tevin Coleman isn't injured for half the year? Which granted, seems like maybe he will be again. But what do you think? Andy, I'm going to put you on the spot here because Mike and I were looking at some stuff yesterday.

[Jason Moore]

So don't look at it right now.

[Andy Holloway]

How do you don't look at some stuff? All right. Stuff.com. not going to go there.

[Mike Wright]

Good, good, good. Thank you, Mike, for the warning. So Devonta Freeman with Tevin Coleman and without Tevin Coleman in the games, what kind of a difference do you think that made in the games that he played by himself versus the games he played with Tevin Coleman?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, so you already know these numbers.

[Mike Wright]

I already know.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, I doubt they're very different.

[Mike Wright]

Hmm. I would have perceived that they were quite different. Right. Because people think, oh, well, sure, Freeman had a good year, but Tevin Coleman was out for a lot of it.

[Jason Moore]

The splits, really only three games, but yeah, the splits.

[Mike Wright]

While the splits. While Tevin Coleman was in, Devonta Freeman had more fantasy production on average in games that Tevin Coleman played than in the ones he was out. His. His points didn't go down, they went up.

[Jason Moore]

He and he in fact averaged almost 20 more rushing yards per game when surprising.

[Andy Holloway]

Like when I said maybe they're around the same. That was just because I remember at the end of the year, you know, some of these games we were trying to take Coleman over. Freeman, you thought it'd be a Coleman game. Look, Freeman, they were all Freeman games. That's what being number six on the running. When you say a Coleman game or a Freeman game, they were all Freeman games. There was only one game he finished outside the top 48. 13 of his 16 games was top 25. So he did beat up on bad defenses. That's when he made his hay. But that's fine. I mean that's fine to me. I mean fifth ranked consistency. Guy still caught 54 passes. And I think what, what you see like if you had to overarching tell the story of Devonta Freeman this year. The story is the offense. The story is just it's too good of an offense to, to, to paint a picture of, of deficiency because of a shared backfield. You know, we probably won't paint a picture next year of New England. You know Dion Lewis and LeGarrett Blunt will get drafted and these two guys are even more central and both pass catchers. I just, look, I'm not going to fade Freeman now. I know I heard in the studio yesterday, I heard you guys talking in the other room and you know Mike, I heard you say look, the value on Coleman to you is just going to end up better than Freeman.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. And that's not.

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe it will.

[Jason Moore]

That's not at all that I dislike Freeman. I like Devontae Freeman and what the numbers speak to it and you saw it, you saw it last year with Devontae Freeman's. His explosion was. It all came as soon as Tevin Coleman went out. But you saw him wear down and I think he just him, he's a smaller guy. He needs Tevin Coleman, he needs those breaks during the game. So it's perfect that they're both there. I just think that Devonte Freeman is going to be a second round pick.

[Andy Holloway]

Next year for context.

[Jason Moore]

And Tevin Coleman.

[Andy Holloway]

Tevin Coleman had nine top 25 performances, Freeman had 13. So depending like this past year, Freeman was the second round pick. Tevin Coleman was free basically 140 in standard league, 112 in PPR. That's not going to happen again. Not even close.

[Jason Moore]

Where do you think he's going to go?

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe in the fifth round, sixth round, seventh round.

[Jason Moore]

My guess was the six.

[Andy Holloway]

If I could look, Melvin Gordon last year went in the sixth. That's about where I would see Tevin Coleman going this year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, if I can grab Freeman in the second and Coleman in the sixth or seventh, I would grab both of them. I'd be happy.

[Andy Holloway]

Very interesting though I did not know those splits. Those are very interesting, very truthy. Splits. All right, so Jean clad Van Dam style.

[Mike Wright]

The next guy who is, you know, very similar to Le'Veon Bell in the sense that he was only the eighth most consistent guy, but, but he missed games. And so the way that our consistency metrics are put together, it's not really fair to him. Melvin Gordon was a beast, an absolute beast this year when he was playing. But it took, you know, Johnny Wahlberg, it took, it took the perfect storm.

[Jason Moore]

Johnny Wahlberg.

[Mike Wright]

Did I just go, Johnny Wahlberg, you're okay.

[Andy Holloway]

It's Mark, Johnny John and the.

[Jason Moore]

You leave my references over here. Johnny, Johnny, Mark.

[Andy Holloway]

He just said Johnny John and the Funky Bunch, right?

[Mike Wright]

Isn't it Johnny John and the Funky Bunch.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's exactly right. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And old Steve Clooney. Good old Steve Clooney and Johnny Wahlberg out on that.

[Mike Wright]

It was on that perfect. It was the perfect rain on that perfect.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what I was waiting for. Well done.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, no problem. Anyways, me and Johnny Wahlberg, they were a twister, right? Yeah, they were a twister.

[Andy Holloway]

The perfect twister.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Mike Wright]

Philip Seymour Hoffman.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we've. Yes, Philip.

[Jason Moore]

Philip.

[Andy Holloway]

Dustin Hoffman. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Mike Wright]

Melvin Gordon show after the show yet.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, I am, I'm all in on Melvin Gordon as a long term guy and if he ends up being at the bottom of the first tier, he may be my preferred pick next year. I know that there are questions there. You got an offensive change, you've got, well, maybe not an offensive change. Whizzen Hunt's probably going to stay, but you got a head coaching change and move into la. We know what that does for running backs.

[Jason Moore]

Small sample size, but it's really bad.

[Andy Holloway]

But yeah, 12 of his 13 games that he started, he was in the top 25. He had three monster performances, played a little better against bottom 16 defenses. The thing is, is he was very involved in the passing game. 41 catches, 419 yards. I think these are all repeatable numbers for Melvin Gordon. You know, maybe they're, you know, he was only at just under a thousand yards. I think they're repeatable. I, you know, I see the warts, but you're getting down into that number where I'd rather draft a guy in Gordon than a guy in the Garrett Blunt, because I see the ceiling for a guy like Gordon being so high. Whereas, you know, Blunt, he caught seven passes. So I, when you talk about guys back to back in the rankings, give me Gordon.

[Jason Moore]

But the, it's what's questionable for Gordon. Is the workload. I mean we don't. Is Danny Woodhead gonna be back? We don't know. There was news today that they expect Rayna Oliver to be back. Yeah, Brandon Oliver is a good pass catcher and for Melvin GORDON it was 10 touchdowns. I mean, that's the part. I would say a lot of the reason why he's so high on this list is because of touchdowns. And I don't know that that is repeatable. He, I mean he was. When he was on his streak, he was scoring every single week.

[Mike Wright]

He.

[Andy Holloway]

Which is great.

[Mike Wright]

He passed the eyeball.

[Jason Moore]

Of course it's great. But that doesn't happen very frequently.

[Mike Wright]

I lean more to Andy's side. I think that he is a good running back and that's what you really. I think he's got the skill set. But, but I do, I do agree with what you're saying that there's going to be a lot of change. You know, Danny Woodhead was just gone this year. Yes. And that thrust Melvin Gordon into a.

[Jason Moore]

Role where he thrived in week one. Woodhead was very involved. I think he. He may have even outscored for fantasy from. He might have outscored Melvin Gordon.

[Mike Wright]

He had a top seven PPR performance.

[Jason Moore]

According to more than Todd Gurley.

[Andy Holloway]

If you look at the offensive snap count percentage for football outsiders, I don't think his proportion like you talk about workload, I don't think he was proportionally too high comparatively. Like, you know, you look at David Johnson, that's at 83%, DeMarco Murray, 81% love Bell 72, Gordon was at 62% and look at Jordan Howard, 64%. Gore is at 60%, McCoy's at 60%. You know, even a guy like Lamar Miller is right at 55% per game or just a total that snap count percentage I think in game started. And so all I'm saying is that you didn't have an 80% that's going to dip to 60% and it was all a volume play. I think he'll get me. Who's going to get in the end zone there? They're not handing it to Brandon Oliver. Brandon Oliver is going to be inactive next year. That's my prediction right now. He's not. He's. He's a nobody. So you know he's a Jonathan Williams, as you would call him.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think that's fair.

[Andy Holloway]

I just don't think there's a lot of downside to Melvin Gordon. That's basically what I see.

[Mike Wright]

The nice thing is with some of these negative narratives might push him down in the rankings as well.

[Jason Moore]

And he's going to go real high.

[Mike Wright]

You think?

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I think people really like him.

[Andy Holloway]

He's slashing, he's sexy.

[Jason Moore]

People like him.

[Andy Holloway]

He won't go ahead of Freeman.

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you think?

[Jason Moore]

I bet he goes right around the same spot.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, he'll go ahead of these next three guys.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

We'll round it out with 10 names and so we'll talk about the Garrett Blunt, Mark Ingram and Jordan Howard next. 8, 9 and 10 in the running back rankings. We'll start with the Garrett Blunt. And the thing that blew my mind when I said earlier and I teased the LeGarrett blunt numbers for a guy that is so touchdown dependent. 18 touchdowns. Right. 300 carries. He's the number one consistent standard league running back. Well, I mean 15 out of 16 games. He's top 25 for a guy drafted outside the top 100 for, for someone.

[Jason Moore]

Who on the year is touchdown reliant. 18 touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

You can go ahead and be touchdown Reliant if you're getting 18 of them.

[Andy Holloway]

So, so where, wherein lies the median number here? Is he a 10 touchdown guy next year? Is he a 12 touchdown guy next year?

[Jason Moore]

I would put.

[Andy Holloway]

He's going to get overdrafted. I'm not drafting legarre Blunt.

[Mike Wright]

I would be willing to draft him because this isn't, I mean, coming into this season, I talked about how good LeGarrett Blunt was last season when, even when Dion Lewis was playing, I think similar to Freeman, his splits were actually up. I don't think he's going to go. He might get overdrafted. You're right. And if he is overdrafted, I will avoid him because he's going to regress from this. I think he is a 10 touchdown guy. He's not going to, you know, this year he had three games.

[Andy Holloway]

Is he a running back one?

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Not, not at all for me. And you mix Dion Lewis in with the kind of outlandish touchdown totals.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And the carries from the one yard line. To me he's just impossible to be on my team.

[Jason Moore]

So I'm looking at a fantasy football calculator because there are, they're, they're running mock drafts already. I love it. But in this, in the newest one here, Melvin Gordon went before Freeman and DeMarco Murray.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I could see it. And that might not be, that might not be wrong.

[Jason Moore]

He's, he's going to go very high.

[Andy Holloway]

That flashy upside. So leguerra Blunt, look Great season probably. I bet he's on, he's on the list of those guys that are on most of the championship teams because of where you got him and what you got from him. He's just, you know, so far down the board and ended up playing great. I mean PPR leagues, he's the sixth most consistent because touchdowns count no matter what you're doing.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. He had three games this year where he didn't get a touchdown.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, if you want to look at usage and what New England seemed to do, he averaged more fantasy points against top 16 defenses as opposed to bottom. He didn't really feed on bottom teams. He was a, you know, 11 point a game guy versus 17 against top defenses. Kind of interesting. Doesn't catch the ball. Obviously a standard league guy. I'm very interested to talk about Mark Ingram. Yes, very important because Mark Ingram went around, you know, second round, late second round pick. He played 16 games. He only had 205 carries. He definitely wasn't very consistent. He was the ninth ranked running back at the end of the year, but 21 in the consistency rankings.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So here's, here's one of those nuggets from those amazing articles we have up atthe fantasy footballers.com right now. Despite finishing as the RB10 in standard scoring, Mark Ingram had six weeks of scoring seven points or fewer, which kills your owners.

[Andy Holloway]

He killed me in 2015.

[Mike Wright]

The last year he never scored less than 7.4 in any week and six times he crushed his owners.

[Andy Holloway]

So it worries me because there wasn't a, an in your face variable at the beginning of the year that made you think this kind of a year would happen. All. It wasn't like the offense failed. It wasn't like the team didn't succeed more this year than last year.

[Mike Wright]

Feel like it's just Hightower when in 2015, in 2015 when Mark Ingram got injured, they brought in Hightower and he was great. And in 2016 they said, hey, I like Hightower. We're splitting. It's. Well, it's not the Mark Ingram show.

[Andy Holloway]

Mark Ingram had to give him a reason and it was fumbles and it was a little bit of injury. One of those games he killed you. He just got hurt in the first play of the game. But you're right, maybe we did not realize, I think fair to say we did not realize what the impact of Hightower's end of season performance did on the coaching staff. And they decided, hey, we're going to, you know, if Ingram does something, if he's Inefficient. We're going to give Hightower the chance to do what he did last year.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

But again, that was not an out in the open variable we could have predicted before the season. And that's why I think a lot of people are going to rewrite this story as why wouldn't you draft him in the back of the second again and should we? Because he still finished number nine. So the consistency wasn't there. But he was clearly the better runner. Everybody saw it.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, he looked great.

[Andy Holloway]

So Mike, I. Look you. You don't have a dog in the race, so to speak.

[Jason Moore]

I do because I really like Mark Ingram and I love them going into last year. I don't, I wouldn't take him likely as a second round pick, but I think he's going to. You know, you always have those nebulous, that group of the third and the fourth round running backs. He's going to be in that group. I think this year, I mean people might see the end of season rankings and move them up, but I still want Mark Ingram on my team. I think that he is a very good running back. 5.1 yards per carry this year. That's the best of his career.

[Andy Holloway]

Where's his ADP in that? Early, early, early. I will because if I could somehow.

[Jason Moore]

End up fourth round, about the middle.

[Andy Holloway]

Of the fourth round, that'll change. But if I could end up with, okay, my first round pick, maybe I get. Maybe it's a Jordan Howard. Maybe it's a.

[Jason Moore]

Well, Jordan Howard is going to be. I mean we're about to talk about him, but he's going to be before, I think taking before all these guys that we're talking about.

[Andy Holloway]

No, that's why I said, I said if I'm. If my first round pick is Jordan Howard.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, okay, okay.

[Andy Holloway]

And then I snag a wide receiver and I can get Mark ingram as my 2. I'll just be dancing through the streets.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I agree.

[Andy Holloway]

Ingram as my two is dream come true scenario for my running back core. Just, I mean because I, I just think he's going to be a one for uncertain weeks for sure.

[Jason Moore]

Mark Ingram or CJ Anderson Ingram.

[Mike Wright]

I would take Ingram as well.

[Andy Holloway]

Stay away from the, the draining suck powers of that offense over there. Jordan Howard.

[Jason Moore]

Now when Romo gets there, we'll wrap.

[Andy Holloway]

Up today's show with Jordan Howard, number 10. You know, obviously incredible season. I just read the snap count. 64% snap count, 13 top 25 performances. You know, for a guy, I kind of disregard some of the consistency rankings here because, you know, you're a rookie. Well, your earnings.

[Mike Wright]

He wasn't a starter starter, but he played.

[Andy Holloway]

No. And he was, you know, not drafted. He was an undrafted player and so he played great against bottom defenses. He played great against top defenses. He was gashing people on 260 carries. He had over 1200 yards and eight touchdowns. Super impressive. Pretty much did it against everybody and did it when people knew it was coming. You know, kind of like Carlos Hyde has to do.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Against defensive fronts that are like, please.

[Jason Moore]

Throw on us now when, when Jordan Howard has a big game. We know how John Fox feels about his rookies.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

He doesn't want to play him. Is he sitting on the sideline like, dang it, he did it again.

[Mike Wright]

Gotta keep him.

[Jason Moore]

Jordan Howard.

[Mike Wright]

No, I think he was going, I'm going to need him to keep my job. So play Jordan.

[Andy Holloway]

Jordan Howard or Melvin Gordon.

[Mike Wright]

I would take Melvin Gordon.

[Jason Moore]

Oh man.

[Andy Holloway]

I would take Melvin Gordon as well.

[Mike Wright]

I'm not. I wouldn't take Jordan Howard in the first round next year. That's just me.

[Jason Moore]

He's. I don't think he'll be a first run guy for me as well. He had the 27 receptions. It was on 35 targets. I imagine that those other targets are. Most of those are going to be drops, but it's. Can he. If he can improve his pass catching at all, Jordan Howard is going to be absolutely unstoppable. Where I, I think I like Howard as a runner much better than Melvin Gordon. But the situation for Gordon is probably going to be better next year.

[Andy Holloway]

Last week we talked about the wide receiver truth and a lot of it was correlative obviously to quarterbacks, but not just quarterbacks, winning quarterbacks. I just looked at this. How many of the top 10 running backs were on winning teams on playoff teams?

[Jason Moore]

We talked about this last playoff teams.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, playoffs.

[Jason Moore]

So of the top 10, how many were on a playoff team?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

I just, just throwing a number out. I would say yeah, I was going to go with six, but I'll go with seven.

[Andy Holloway]

Four.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, four.

[Mike Wright]

Obviously David Johnson this year was no playoffs.

[Andy Holloway]

So Zeke Lev Bell, Devonta Freeman and LeGarrett Blunt are the only four out of the top 10 that are on playoff teams. And so it's just one of those things where if you're predicting or you're deciding between Jordan Howard and someone else and the temptation is I'm always going to go with the better team. I'm just saying 4 out of 10, you know, 6 out of 10, we're not on playoff teams.

[Jason Moore]

Right, but, but it's not. I wouldn't look just at playoff teams. You would. You got to look at bad teams. Because I think last year when we were talking about this, we were looking at teams that are.500 or better.

[Mike Wright]

That's what.

[Jason Moore]

Now I know the Cardinals weren't 500, but they were 7, 8 and 1. Is that correct?

[Andy Holloway]

Gordon was on a bad team.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

Howard was on a bad.

[Jason Moore]

Chargers were a bad team though.

[Mike Wright]

The Chargers were the Browns only victory.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I understand it's an autobad.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, we're going to lose arguments. Mike, if you'd say I don't think they're a bad team when the, when the standings say they're bad team. Right. I mean, if they're 5 and 11, what are they?

[Jason Moore]

The standings say they're, they're, they're a bad team. But they were. I don't know.

[Mike Wright]

They were a bad team this season. I mean, they had a lot of injuries. Philip Rivers was throwing a ton of interceptions.

[Jason Moore]

They lost. They gave away a lot of games.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, Saints, okay. Gave away games. Whatever they played, they lost. Gordon was in that top tier.

[Mike Wright]

Below.500.

[Andy Holloway]

Ingram was.

[Mike Wright]

That was the metric, right? Below 500.

[Andy Holloway]

Well. And New Orleans below 500. Right. The Bears 3 and 13. I'm just bringing it to light. I'm not saying it means anything, but it just seems like there's a less, less of a dependency in these top 10 to be on an operational on offense. I mean, I still much prefer to draft one, but I mean. Shady, right?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, Shady in the middle.

[Andy Holloway]

Shady was it, you know, Tennessee. What was Tennessee? What do they end up finishing? 9 and 7. So they were a winning team, but right around there. So anyway, we got to wrap it up. We'll. We'll get into more names. You know, we're talking about the J A jais and Gore and Latavius, Murray and Crowell.

[Mike Wright]

Todd Gurley.

[Andy Holloway]

Todd Gurley. And we'll even give you some of those guys that, that were drafted pretty high, dropped off completely, you know, Ryan Matthews. We'll talk about Rob Kelly, all these guys on Thursday. So don't miss out on that episode. We'll, you know, we'll get into it. We'll get into the weeds with these guys. Lots of debates on today's show.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they're good. They're not going to be as good as our show. After the show.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure. Yeah, Stay tuned for that. I will remind people. I mean, we're obviously January 17th right, so subject to change these opinions, the coaching changes that are going to take place. Don't listen.

[Mike Wright]

Water, my friends.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, that is it for today's show. Follow us on twitter@the ff ballers. Check out fantasyjocks.com for your fantasy trophy. Needs. Trophies, rings, all that stuff. Use the coach Footballers. We'll be back on Thursday. Yeah, and stay tuned for the show after the show on YouTube.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.