Fantasy Footballers Podcast 2017 - The TRUTH About Fantasy RB's in 2016, Part 2

Release Date: January 19, 2017
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
Guest: Al Robinson (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Introduction

In the second part of their two-episode series titled "The TRUTH About Fantasy RB's in 2016," The Fantasy Footballers delve deeper into the performance and future prospects of running backs (RBs) ranked between positions 11 and 25. The discussion is enriched by insights from Al Robinson of the Jacksonville Jaguars, providing listeners with a comprehensive analysis of the running back landscape based on the 2016 NFL season.

Writing Staff’s Top Five RBs for 2017

Timestamp: [02:03] - [04:10]

The episode kicks off with Jason Moore referencing feedback from the show's writing staff, who participated in a poll to rank the top five running backs for the upcoming 2017 season. The staff’s rankings are as follows:

1. Le'Veon Bell
2. David Johnson
3. Ezekiel Elliott
4. LaShawn McCoy
5. Melvin Gordon

Jason Moore notes, “Apparently, Melvin Gordon was unranked on some, and there were others like Devonta Freeman, Lamar Miller, DeMarco Murray, and Jordan Howard who received top five votes” ([03:25]). Andy Holloway concurs, expressing his disagreement with the inclusion of McCoy and Gordon in the fourth and fifth slots, respectively. Instead, both hosts advocate for Devonta Freeman and DeMarco Murray as more deserving choices based on their performances and potential.

Analysis of RB Rankings: 11-25

Timestamp: [10:19] - [53:14]

The core of the discussion revolves around the running backs ranked from 11 to 25, analyzing their 2016 performances and projecting their future in fantasy football. Key players discussed include J. Ajayi, Devonta Freeman, Frank Gore, Latavius Murray, Isaiah Crowell, Carlos Hyde, Spencer Ware, Todd Gurley, Lamar Miller, Tevin Coleman, Matt Forte, Chris Ivory, and Jonathan Stewart.

J. Ajayi (#11)

Jason Moore highlights Ajayi’s impressive consistency, noting he was drafted outside the top 100 yet finished as the #11 RB with 1,300 yards over 15 games. He states, “That's very nice consistency rating of 5” ([10:40]). Andy Holloway points out that Ajayi had three monster games surpassing 200 yards, which contributed significantly to his overall yardage. Despite these standout performances, some of his other games saw lower outputs, but his ability to deliver big plays makes him a reliable option moving forward.

Devonta Freeman

Freeman’s performance is scrutinized with Andy Holloway expressing concerns about his consistency. However, Jason Moore defends Freeman by emphasizing his nine top 25 performances, asserting, “He's a low end, 12 type of guy. For me, I still think they don't love him” ([11:48]). The hosts debate whether Freeman's narrative as inconsistent is warranted, considering his ability to score touchdowns even in lower-yardage games.

Frank Gore (#12)

Frank Gore is discussed as the "least sexy" player among the top 24 RBs but recognized for his reliability. Andy Holloway remarks, “He is the least sexy player to own, maybe out of the top 24 running backs” ([16:45]). Gore’s consistent performance, with 1,000 yards and four touchdowns despite a struggling offensive line, positions him as a dependable fantasy option. However, concerns about his age (34 years old) and potential retirement loom over his future viability.

Latavius Murray (#13)

Murray’s role with the Oakland Raiders is debated, especially considering the team’s shared running back workload. Andy Holloway notes, “The Raiders are a phenomenal running team... they were the fifth most fantasy points among all NFL teams at the running back position” ([19:36]). His ability to produce touchdowns and handle a significant number of carries makes him a valuable asset, but his free-agent status introduces uncertainty for the upcoming season.

Isaiah Crowell (#14)

Jason Moore labels Crowell as a "vegetable" in fantasy terms, criticizing his unpredictability and inconsistent performance. Andy Holloway agrees, stating, “he had a lot of big blow up games, it was very hard to predict those” ([23:18]). Despite transitioning to a pass-catching role in PPR leagues, his reliability remains questionable due to fluctuating performances tied to quarterback changes.

Carlos Hyde (#15)

Carlos Hyde's 2016 season is characterized by flashes of brilliance amidst concerns about team dynamics and offensive strategies. Andy Holloway cites the departure of Chip Kelly as a potential threat to Hyde’s effectiveness, saying, “the way that Chip Kelly ran that offense... takes a hit to me with that system” ([25:12]). While Hyde showed he can produce top-tier performances, his future hinges on staying healthy and maintaining consistent offensive support.

Spencer Ware (#16)

Ware is discussed as a player who showed promise but ultimately fell short of expectations. Jason Moore critiques Ware’s ability to capitalize on opportunities, noting his lack of big plays despite substantial carries. Andy Holloway concurs, suggesting Ware “wore down” over the season ([28:24]). The debate centers on whether Ware can rebound in a new system or if his performance was a one-season anomaly.

Todd Gurley (#17)

Gurley is a focal point of discussion, particularly his underwhelming 2016 performance relative to his high draft position. Andy Holloway points out, “Todd Gurley was great this year” yet he finishes as the 17th best RB, disappointing many fantasy owners ([32:05]). Concerns about his workload management, offensive scheme, and physical prowess are highlighted. The hosts debate whether Gurley will bounce back or continue to disappoint in future seasons.

Lamar Miller (#18)

Miller is evaluated based on his consistency and the impact of team offensive changes. Jason Moore acknowledges that Miller had a decent year with ten top 25 games but missed the last two games, impacting his ranking. Andy Holloway remains hopeful that Bill O’Brien’s overhaul of the offense could rejuvenate Miller’s performance for 2017 ([38:00]).

Tevin Coleman (#19)

Coleman is praised for his touchdown efficiency despite missing games. Jason Moore emphasizes Coleman’s potential, stating, “the upside for Coleman seems to be immense” ([42:38]). Andy Holloway questions whether Coleman’s touchdown numbers are sustainable if he maintains his role in a stable and dynamic offense, likening his situation to players like Darren Sproles who thrived in high-powered offenses.

Matt Forte (#20)

Matt Forte’s transition to a new team is analyzed, focusing on his reliability and potential under different offensive schemes. Jason Moore remarks on Forte’s versatility and consistency, suggesting he’s a "decently reliable running back" and a worthy target despite his age and previous injury concerns ([48:07]). Andy Holloway echoes this sentiment, viewing Forte as a dependable option within his new team structure.

Chris Ivory and Jonathan Stewart (#21-24)

The discussion briefly touches on other RBs like Chris Ivory and Jonathan Stewart, highlighting their aging status and potential decline in performance. Jason Moore anticipates Stewart being drafted lower due to his approaching 30th birthday and inconsistent production, while Andy Holloway expresses skepticism about their future impact in favor of younger, emerging backs.

Team Situations and Coaching Changes Impacting RB Performance

Timestamp: [04:52] - [35:31]

The hosts and guest discuss how team strategies, coaching changes, and offensive schemes significantly influence RB performances. Al Robinson brings attention to Bill O’Brien’s move to Houston as a potential positive change, particularly for Lamar Miller, while Jason Moore speculates on how coaching shifts could affect players like Melvin Gordon and Isaiah Crowell.

Andy Holloway and Jason Moore explore the implications of offensive coordinators like Greg Olson’s hiring, questioning his track record and potential impact on players like Todd Gurley. The consensus is that coaching decisions can either bolster or hinder RB production, making it a critical factor in fantasy football evaluations.

Consistency and Performance Metrics

Timestamp: [14:48] - [38:09]

A recurring theme is the importance of consistency in RB performances. The panel emphasizes that high variability in game-to-game production can be detrimental for fantasy owners. Jason Moore praises players like Frank Gore and Spencer Ware for their ability to avoid "bust" games, while Andy Holloway underscores the value of RBs who can reliably contribute across the season.

Al Robinson provides statistical insights, such as J. Ajayi’s performance against top and bottom half defenses, demonstrating how external factors like opposing defenses play a role in RB success. The discussion highlights that understanding context—like strength of schedule and team offense—is essential for accurate RB valuation.

Predictions and Future Outlook

Timestamp: [38:09] - [53:14]

Looking ahead to the 2017 season, the hosts make several predictions:

• Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliott are expected to remain top-tier RBs based on their past performances and team environments.
• Frank Gore may face decline due to age, with some speculating retirement or reduced effectiveness.
• Latavius Murray’s free-agent status introduces uncertainty, though his proven track record keeps him in consideration.
• Todd Gurley is a wildcard; his future performance is contingent on coaching changes and workload management.
• Tevin Coleman is viewed as a high-upside RB who could solidify his position in a dynamic offense.
• Matt Forte remains a reliable option despite his age, with potential upside in a new team setting.

The panel advises fantasy owners to monitor offseason developments closely, as roster changes, coaching hires, and team strategies will heavily influence RB performances in the upcoming season.

Conclusion

The episode concludes with the hosts reiterating the importance of thorough analysis and staying informed about team changes and player health. Jason Moore encourages listeners to engage with the show's community via jointhefoot.com and to stay tuned for future episodes focusing on other positions like quarterbacks and tight ends.

Andy Holloway confidently states, “I can tell you already that our Quarterback Truth episode is excellent. I already know that next week's episode is amazing” ([53:18]), setting the stage for continued in-depth fantasy football content.

Notable Quotes:

• Jason Moore [10:40]: "That's very nice consistency rating of 5."
• Andy Holloway [16:45]: "He is the least sexy player to own, maybe out of the top 24 running backs."
• Jason Moore [23:18]: "Isaiah Crowell was a vegetable this year. Without question."
• Andy Holloway [32:05]: "Todd Gurley was great this year," despite his ranking.
• Jason Moore [38:00]: "He had ten top 25 games."
• Jason Moore [42:38]: "The upside for Coleman seems to be immense."
• Andy Holloway [53:18]: "I can tell you already that our Quarterback Truth episode is excellent."

Key Takeaways

1. Consistency Matters: Running backs who can deliver steady performances are more favorable in fantasy leagues than those with high variability.
2. Team Dynamics: Coaching changes, offensive schemes, and team support play crucial roles in the success of running backs.
3. Age and Longevity: Older running backs like Frank Gore and Jonathan Stewart may face declining performances, while younger backs like Lamar Miller and Tevin Coleman present higher upside.
4. Free Agency and Uncertainty: Players with uncertain futures, such as Latavius Murray, require careful consideration due to potential team changes.
5. Strategic Drafting: Fantasy owners should prioritize RBs who not only had strong performances but also operate within stable and supportive team environments.

For more in-depth analysis and ongoing fantasy football discussions, listeners are encouraged to join The Fantasy Footballers' community at jointhefoot.com and follow them on Twitter @theffballers.