Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - The TRUTH About Fantasy WR's in 2016, Part 1

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - "The TRUTH About Fantasy WR's in 2016, Part 1"

Release Date: January 10, 2017

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1. Episode Overview

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deep into the performance and consistency of wide receivers (WRs) during the 2016 NFL season. Titled "The TRUTH About Fantasy WR's in 2016, Part 1," the discussion aims to provide fantasy football enthusiasts with insightful analysis to aid in optimizing their draft strategies for the upcoming season.

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2. Consistency in Fantasy WRs: The Importance

Andy Holloway opens the discussion by emphasizing the often-overlooked aspect of WR consistency in fantasy football rankings:

[04:09] Andy Holloway: “A player can finish very high in the rankings, but their consistency can be all over the map and that can really affect the way you perform in the playoffs.”

The trio highlights how consistency, defined by the frequency of WRs finishing within the top tiers each week, plays a crucial role in week-to-week fantasy performance and ultimately, playoff success.

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3. Detailed Analysis of Top Fantasy Wide Receivers in 2016

a. Jordy Nelson

Jordy Nelson emerges as the most consistent WR of the 2016 season. His performance metrics include:

• Games Played: 16
• Receptions: 97
• Yards: 1,257
• Touchdowns: 14
• Targets: 152

Andy Holloway praises Nelson's reliability:

[25:44] Andy Holloway: “Look, what more can you say about a guy who is both consistent and finishes at the top of the rank?”

Jason Moore concurs, noting Nelson's undervaluation in drafts despite his standout performance.

b. Mike Evans

Mike Evans ranks second, showcasing impressive consistency:

• Receptions: 96
• Yards: 1,321
• Touchdowns: 12
• Targets: 173

Mike Wright highlights Evans' performance against top defenses:

[29:43] Mike Wright: “When all wide receivers... he was averaging just over 57 yards against good defenses.”

Despite a slight dip in touchdowns, Evans remains a cornerstone due to his high target share and yardage.

c. Antonio Brown

Antonio Brown remains a top-tier WR despite a challenging season:

• Receptions: 106
• Yards: 1,084
• Touchdowns: 12
• Games Played: 15

Jason Moore emphasizes Brown's enduring value:

[33:09] Jason Moore: “You have to look. This was a real, I mean, surprisingly down year for Antonio Brown.”

Brown's high target count compensates for the fewer games played, maintaining his position as a reliable WR option.

d. Odell Beckham Jr.

Odell Beckham Jr. demonstrates solid performance metrics:

• Receptions: 75
• Yards: 997
• Touchdowns: 12

Andy Holloway discusses Beckham's consistency issues:

[33:23] Andy Holloway: “You got this report coming out, punching through the wall... he's a fiery man.”

While Beckham shows potential, concerns about turnovers and missed opportunities affect his consistency rating.

e. Ty Hilton

Ty Hilton ranks fifth with the following stats:

• Receptions: 91
• Yards: 1,448 (career high)
• Touchdowns: 6

Mike Wright points out Hilton's performance disparity:

[37:45] Andy Holloway: “...against top half, over 123 yards. That was a red flag.”

Despite high yardage, the inconsistency against stronger defenses raises concerns for future performance.

f. Julio Jones

Julio Jones maintains a strong presence with:

• Receptions: 83
• Yards: 1,400+
• Touchdowns: 6

Andy Holloway notes Julio's potential as a draft steal:

[40:30] Andy Holloway: “He had 83 receptions... only six touchdowns. That's been the Achilles heel for Julio Jones.”

Julio's ability to rack up yards makes him a valuable but somewhat touchdown-dependent asset.

g. Michael Thomas

Michael Thomas, a rookie in 2016, impresses with:

• Receptions: 92
• Yards: 1,137
• Touchdowns: 9

Jason Moore commends Thomas' red zone efficiency:

[44:06] Jason Moore: “The thing I like about Michael Thomas is the red zone opportunity.”

Thomas' strong rapport with quarterback Drew Brees positions him as a dependable WR option moving forward.

h. Brandon Cooks

Brandon Cooks exhibits robust numbers:

• Receptions: 117
• Yards: 1,100+
• Touchdowns: 8

Andy Holloway discusses Cooks' fluctuating performance:

[50:44] Jason Moore: “He'S just kill your team.”

Cooks' ability to deliver high-yardage games is counterbalanced by his inconsistent touchdown production.

i. Doug Baldwin

Doug Baldwin concludes the top ten WRs with:

• Receptions: 94
• Yards: 1,100+
• Touchdowns: 7

Andy Holloway emphasizes Baldwin's second-half surge:

[53:19] Andy Holloway: “Second half of the season for Baldwin. Double digits in five of nine games.”

Baldwin's late-season performance suggests potential for increased consistency and impact in future games.

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4. Draft Value and Strategies

The hosts discuss the importance of balancing WR selections based on consistency and draft value. Andy Holloway advises against swinging the pendulum too far, recognizing that 2016 was an outlier year for WR performances. Instead, maintaining a balanced approach with a mix of high-performing and consistently reliable WRs is recommended.

Jason Moore adds:

[46:44] “All these great wide receivers... they all have good quarterbacks.”

He underscores the significance of pairing WRs with strong quarterbacks to maximize performance consistency.

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5. Conclusions and Outlook for Next Season

The episode wraps up with the hosts reflecting on the analyzed WR performances and their implications for the upcoming fantasy football season. They anticipate that while 2016 presented unique challenges, top WRs like Jordy Nelson and Mike Evans will continue to be valuable assets. Additionally, emerging talents like Michael Thomas offer promising prospects for fantasy managers.

Andy Holloway concludes:

[57:09] “Keep it on file for next year. Well, it's January 10th, so keep it on file. We'll go through some more names.”

Teasing future episodes, the hosts hint at deeper dives into WR performances beyond the top ten, ensuring listeners are well-prepared for their drafts.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Andy Holloway [04:09]: “A player can finish very high in the rankings, but their consistency can be all over the map and that can really affect the way you perform in the playoffs.”

• Andy Holloway [25:44]: “Look, what more can you say about a guy who is both consistent and finishes at the top of the rank?”

• Jason Moore [33:09]: “You have to look. This was a real, I mean, surprisingly down year for Antonio Brown.”

• Mike Wright [29:43]: “When all wide receivers... he was averaging just over 57 yards against good defenses.”

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Final Thoughts

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2016 wide receiver landscape in fantasy football, emphasizing the critical role of consistency and strategic drafting. By dissecting individual performances and team dynamics, the Fantasy Footballers equip listeners with the knowledge to make informed decisions, enhancing their chances of securing league victories in the coming season.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Foreign.

[Jason Moore]

To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, coming to you from the fantasyjocks.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in the Foot Clan headquarters. Jason is holding up his Foot Clan title T shirt to mock us. Congratulations. Congrats.

[Jason Moore]

And to you. I know you got it.

[Andy Holloway]

That looks really nice. Yeah, that looks good.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you.

[Andy Holloway]

I've seen it. I've seen a whole lot of listeners drinking the morning coffee and Foot Clan title mugs.

[Mike Wright]

Tastes better.

[Andy Holloway]

It does taste better.

[Mike Wright]

Tastes better when you're a winner.

[Andy Holloway]

It always does. So Clemson's feeling good, this. Oh, they got that national championship mug.

[Jason Moore]

Clemson, go to shopballers.com and get your Foot Clan.

[Andy Holloway]

That's not a Foot Clan title.

[Jason Moore]

All right, all right.

[Andy Holloway]

Although they. Yeah, what a game. One of the best. One of the best national title games. Top 10 ever, I would. I would say. And one of the best finishes. Two catches. The Mike Williams catch and the catch by the tight end were just outstanding. Just unbelievable. Sean Watson played great.

[Mike Wright]

I'd say the. You mean they're. Is when you weigh them, when you weigh those championships.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's totally different. If you weigh that, they're pretty there. I mean, Foot Clan titles up there.

[Mike Wright]

They're slightly even on that scale.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep. Oh, well, there you go. We're here. Tuesday, 1-10-20. There's our college 2017. The fantasy footballers are back. I have to be honest with you, gentlemen, it feels strange when we don't have five shows a week.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

It feels like we've not done this in a long time.

[Andy Holloway]

Feels like I might live longer. The year of health has begun. We're all trying to get in shape, trying to get the new studio in shape. Oh, so lots going on. We have a giveaway on jointhefoot.com taking place today, giving away an autographed Antonio Brown football.

[Mike Wright]

Wait, what?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. You didn't know that?

[Mike Wright]

I did, but I forgot. Now I'm jealous.

[Andy Holloway]

An exclamation of joy. We had a listener, Paul. You know, Paul, Dr. Football. Dr. Football.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

He said if he won it, it would be a sad reminder of how Antonio Brown destroyed him in the. I believe it was the semis or the title game. I told him he could punt it into the ocean if he wants. I mean, that you can do whatever you want with it.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

You win it.

[Mike Wright]

So give video.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you have to. If you're going to punt an autograph football into the ocean, you need video proof that you've done it of being a fool. Yeah. I mean, we all get rid of Our demons in different ways. So what do we got on the show today?

[Jason Moore]

It's the truth.

[Andy Holloway]

The truth. All these episodes were great last year. I hope we can live up to it.

[Mike Wright]

We're looking back on the year that was 2016. We're starting with the wide receivers. Part one of the wide receivers of, you know, like, hey, Devonte Adams finished as the number eight wide receiver and half point PPR. But does he deserve to be the number eight wide receiver?

[Andy Holloway]

What happens and one of the reasons we encourage you to stay with us all offseason is a lot of the times the first step for somebody coming back to fantasy football in the new year is to go and look at the statistics for last year and see the rankings and see how people finished running backs, wide receivers, quarterbacks, and then evaluate that as their, you know, how they build out the draft board and it's a piece of the puzzle. But what you don't realize is sometimes the final ranking is not representative of consistency from a position from a player. And that's what we're breaking down here. There are a lot of different ways you can look at consistency. The way that we're looking at it is based on Tristan Cockcroft at espn. He has a really good consistency article that comes out and it just, it basically just highlights how often are these players finishing within the top five, the top 25 at their position and how many times are they giving you performances on a week to week basis that are worse than the waiver wire.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

So a player can finish very high in the rankings, but their consistency can be all over the map and that can really affect the way you perform in the playoffs.

[Jason Moore]

You're not going to win with those players. They end the season and you go, oh, I had a top, a top 12 wide receiver and it's like, but I finished out of the playoffs because he cost me six games when he didn't show up.

[Mike Wright]

You know how to, how to value these guys properly because you know that, well, if this is, there's a, there's some risk when I, if I spend a high pick on this guy because yeah, they can have huge gains, but I also know that they can fail me.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep, absolutely. So that's the Today we have news and notes and then we have the truth. The first. I think we'll get through about 1012 wide receivers today and then we'll break down some more on Thursday. I'm going to start us off though with a quick question, guys, because this is going to feed right into what we're Talking about. So it's a who am I? And you guys have to guess this. I finished as the wide receiver, 17.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. Well, not look at the list.

[Andy Holloway]

Wide receiver, wide receiver, 17 and a half point per reception. Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Clue number two. I am third in targets, but 12th in receiving yards. Oh, okay.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Third in targets, 12th in receiving yards, third in targets.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Standard scoring. I'm the wide receiver 22 and full point per reception on wide receiver 15.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, I have my guess.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think he's that high on yards.

[Mike Wright]

I feel like my guy would be higher.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I'll give you one more clue. He's 30 years old.

[Mike Wright]

Ooh. Okay, that rules.

[Andy Holloway]

That ruined both years.

[Jason Moore]

I was thinking it was Pro Bowl, Larry.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's where I was leaning to.

[Andy Holloway]

See Brooks puts these together and I actually got this one. I guessed it before.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, hold on. We have one more clue.

[Andy Holloway]

I finished. Okay, you got all the other clues. The last one is he's in the playoffs right now. Ooh, still in the playoffs.

[Mike Wright]

Dang it.

[Andy Holloway]

Does that eliminate another guess? So, finished as wide receiver, 17 and a half point, third in targets, but 12th in receiving yards. 30 years old, still in the playoffs.

[Jason Moore]

Edelman.

[Andy Holloway]

It's Julian. Yeah. Finally got there. I'm proud of you, Jason.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you.

[Andy Holloway]

Deserving of that foot clan title. So, yeah. Julian Edelman. What do you think of Julian Edelman season based on that? Well, to be fair, how would you evaluate it, Mike? Because you owned them all year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it was. It was weird, man. It was a really weird season for Julian Edelman. You have, of course, those first four games, Sands, Tommy, touchdown, throwing him the ball. I mean, you had. Garoppolo was actually pretty solid, but then you had the beef brisket, Jacoby coming in there and replacements of. And you. You could see it. You could see Julian Edelman. You're like, oh, it's going to be great as soon as Tom Brady gets back. In those first four games, he. There was concerns about Edelman in the off season, his foot, some surgeries, missing time last year, but everything looks good to go. And then Tom Brady came in and it was trash. Julian Edelman was bad for fantasy football for a stretch, and then he started to heat up and Gronk went out and then he was sensational after that. So it's. It's hard to get a really complete picture or what is. What is Julian Edelman moving forward? You have to assume that he's bad, that he will continue to be that PPR stud.

[Andy Holloway]

But have you Adjusted maybe next year what his ceiling will be.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's possible. I mean you had. Because two years ago, right. He had, I believe it was seven touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Does that sound in the first. Yeah, in the, in the beginning part of the year before the injury, before.

[Mike Wright]

He went down with the foot, I mean he was just crushing. And then this past year it was, I believe before week 17, he had two touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, and you have Malcolm Mitchell ascending. Now. That's not, that wasn't there before.

[Mike Wright]

So Edelman is great, he's just not a one.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

I think Edelman is a great mid to low two. And you just, I assume that he is, or I guess not this year. But generally speaking, he's great for. When you talk about consistency, you know what you're going to get.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, he went out and had a monster week 17. Just to confuse us for next year.

[Mike Wright]

Michael Floyd had something to do with that.

[Andy Holloway]

That block.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

We encourage you to check us out on twitter@the ffballers. The website is the fantasy footballers.com and the fantasy football community where over 3,000 listeners are hanging out, joining leagues together, extra episodes, giveaways, lots of perks for supporting the show. Check it out. Jointhefoot.com you can also follow us on a number of other places. Fantasy Sports Network, YouTube, Facebook, iTunes, all that stuff. Snapchat, all that good stuff. So we're gonna break down a little.

[Mike Wright]

Before we get into the news.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh yeah, I just want to update.

[Mike Wright]

I want to update the Foot Clan. We have a footballers bracket, a playoff bracket. Yeah, we filled everything out before the kickoff of game one and the losers will have their lunches selected for an entire week. The standings as follows. I am in first place as I got all four games correctly picked. Jason and Andy are tied. They both have three point seats because Andy the late a last minute pivot to Connor Cook's Raiders.

[Andy Holloway]

I, you know, I'll tell you exactly.

[Mike Wright]

You went for the glory.

[Andy Holloway]

I was so, yeah, basically Mike and I have very similar brackets. So I said to myself right before the game, I'm watching the warmups. I'm just meditating on how bad Brock Osweiler is. And I'm watching Khalil Mack warm up and literally I just said, I'm going to change. I'm just going to go. Brock Osweiler is going to throw some ugly screen pass, Max going to take it back. And that's all it's going to take. And I was so wrong.

[Jason Moore]

What?

[Andy Holloway]

You had so much regret.

[Mike Wright]

You had it. I. You had it nailed. But instead of focusing on how good Clowney is and how bad Connor Cook is. Yeah, you just had an inverse. The screen pass. You called that just wrong team.

[Jason Moore]

So, yeah, matters. That matters for the bracket.

[Andy Holloway]

And then Jason lost his Giants, his Super bowl champions.

[Mike Wright]

That's a far bigger loss.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that is because I had the Giants rolling through the playoffs. This was the game that scared me. Was. Was the packers, man. It was. It was crazy, though, because the first half. The, like 90% of the first half, I think it was.

[Mike Wright]

Their defense was dominant.

[Jason Moore]

It was halfway into the second quarter where Green Bay had seven total yards.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Seven total yards of offense. And that Hail Mary just put them in full tilt mode. And then they got blown out.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason, do you think that your pick of the Giants had anything to do with the fact you spent last weekend on a yacht down in Florida?

[Mike Wright]

It's not even a yacht.

[Jason Moore]

A sailboat, a little speed.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason was on a yacht. You know that. Did that have any. Did that affect your judgment, the way you perform? Did you drop the ball because of it?

[Jason Moore]

Absolutely not. That would be ridiculous.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. All right, here we go.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league.

[Andy Holloway]

Poor Jordy Nelson suffered two fractured ribs in the wild card win over the Giants.

[Mike Wright]

That was brutal.

[Andy Holloway]

I had him in the playoff challenge and I switched him out this morning because I can't imagine, even if he played.

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

That I'd want to be playing him over DEZ Bryant so that, you know, Randall Cobb stepped up. Geronimo Allison is going to have to step up time. Montgomery had to be carried off the field with an ankle injury he'll return to later on.

[Mike Wright]

It was so bizarre. They were blowing them out, Kristen. Michael had provided them a spark coming into the second half, getting the run game going.

[Jason Moore]

The injury looked nasty when it got on the field. It's just like, why bring him back? What do.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Even if you don't. Even if you don't want to give it to Michael, just give it to Ripkowski.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep. Spencer Ware and Justin Houston will play on Sunday.

[Jason Moore]

That's a big deal.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's huge for the Chiefs.

[Andy Holloway]

CJ Pro Size is now practicing so he could be back involved.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think he's probably still.

[Andy Holloway]

Thomas Rawls looked great. He did 160 plus yards. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I had so many of those on Twitter. Osweiler's gonna start again because, I mean, he's just great. He's just a great quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Matter doesn't matter.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, it doesn't matter. I look the line in Vegas on that game opened 16. I said it should have been 32. Let me see. It is. Oh, it's currently still a 16.

[Andy Holloway]

Note to self, do not pivot to Brock Osweiler on Sunday.

[Mike Wright]

Andy, what was Jay, you talked about? You were reading a. It was an article of what has changed.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, all the, all the things, the change and the tweet went out as in like, oh, this might not be like it was, you know, in week three or week five.

[Andy Holloway]

Jacoby Brissette, right?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that was one of the things that's changed. Oh, they lost Jacoby Brissette and they.

[Mike Wright]

Gained Tom Thomas, possibly the best quarterback of all time.

[Jason Moore]

J.J. watt played in that last game.

[Andy Holloway]

So over under, let's call it right.

[Mike Wright]

Now, of the Patriot victory, saying the spread.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, sorry. Yeah, the spread. Who would you take? Houston plus 16.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I'm taking.

[Andy Holloway]

Or did you take the.

[Jason Moore]

I would take the Patriots.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you think? Okay, over. Under. Giving up seven points in that game to Houston. I'm going to take the under.

[Mike Wright]

Can the Texans score over seven points?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think so. I. I mean, the office, the Texans.

[Jason Moore]

I don't. I don't think so.

[Mike Wright]

Good number.

[Jason Moore]

Thing is, is, I mean, you say the Texans offense. I don't think Tom Brady's throwing a pick six.

[Andy Holloway]

Something can happen. Special team. I just mean, I'm just saying, like, I don't see New England giving up more than seven points.

[Mike Wright]

Houston, can Miller take the Texans down, score more than seven?

[Andy Holloway]

No, he can't.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm going to take the under.

[Mike Wright]

I'll go over.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Head coaching news that might affect fantasy owners next year. The Jaguars. Jaguars have hired Doug Marone to be their new head coach and Tom Coughlin to be the executive VP of football operations. Coughlin will have the final say on everything, and then Doug Marone will be the field general. You know, I've been on record, of course, because it's the Jaguars, so of course I'm going to have, like, a rosy outlook. Doug Marone, he wasn't bad. I mean, he wasn't bad day in the year and he wasn't bad in Buffalo.

[Jason Moore]

No, he was not.

[Mike Wright]

Here's the thing. Anything compared to what Gus Bradley was putting on the field.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Is okay.

[Andy Holloway]

It was so strange because yesterday you're like, well, I don't like the hire because I like to see new guys get an opportunity. And then I'm like, like Gus Bradley, which.

[Mike Wright]

And I said it was worth the shot to me to bring in Gus Bradley. And here's the thing.

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe they're not ready to take two shots back to back.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I totally, I totally get that they're going to bring in a guy who has done it by. Well, just brought into coach. Yeah. But I mean, Gus Bradley was a defensive minded coach. The Jacksonville defense has been improving and was pretty solid last year. It was the offense fault and it was a lot of that was Blake Bortles and Doug Marone. Part of his hiring was him saying, I believe in Blake Bortles. I can, I can work with him.

[Jason Moore]

So are we to believe that Doug Marone is your new favorite coach in the National Football League?

[Andy Holloway]

It's under advisement. I mean, Hugh Jackson's still going to have the opportunity to earn that spot.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, for sure. But.

[Andy Holloway]

But he's up there and he has.

[Mike Wright]

A requirement of like five wins or under. Once you go over five wins, you're no longer his favorite.

[Jason Moore]

I will say this. When you're as bad as the Jags have been for the last three years, I don't like promoting from within. I would want to shake up a change and I'd want to get someone that has a little bit of clout and respect. That's why bringing in Coughlin as a head coach I think would be good for them. However, you do see last year with Malarkey I thought was the worst higher imaginable. Keeping that terrible Titans team promoting from within and taking that interim head coach, making him the real head coach. He did. He did a great job.

[Andy Holloway]

I made a quick note. I need to grab a Hugh Jackson autograph photo from Pristine Auction. Need to add that to the new set to just kind of give it a good feel.

[Mike Wright]

Oh man.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Jason Moore]

Just put it on top of your Gus Bradley. Just tape it over it. And then as the years go on, you can have a stack that just grows deeper. With fired, it's like, it's like the.

[Mike Wright]

Tabs for your license plate. Eventually it's just sticking out.

[Andy Holloway]

I need a new one every year because they're always fired.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. The jets have hired. Well, they're going to need a new offensive coordinator. Chan Gailey's retiring. Something to monitor when the OCs change. Ravens are going to keep Marty morningwig for the 2017 season at the offensive coordinator position. Did come out that Harbaugh said we need another running back. It was very interesting game breaking running back. You know, they've, they've struggled to run the ball consistently since, you know, for set had a pretty good year. Ray Rice before that. So just something to keep in mind if you are A Dixon Dynasty owner. If you are Terrence west, dynasty owner.

[Mike Wright]

Well, Terrence west is also a restricted free agent.

[Andy Holloway]

I just cannot. The upside. There's no upside bringing him back. I mean, if you get him cheap.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I agree.

[Andy Holloway]

He'll come back. But. But yeah, the Ravens. You know the story about the Ravens. We've been saying it for two off seasons. They lead the league in passing attempts every year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So you know what's clearly hardballing.

[Jason Moore]

Game looked fine.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

To me.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it did at times. But there were a lot of times when it did look like they couldn't lean on it, like it was ancillary. So franchise loan, rushing attempts each of the past two years. They want to change that. Possibly. You never know. Impending free agent Terrell Pryor says he wants to remain in Cleveland, so he must have been talking to Joe Thomas. I still think it's the best place for him. I know you guys disagree. I think the best place for Terrell prior to have fantasy relevance is in Cleveland.

[Jason Moore]

No, I don't disagree with that.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

I don't necessarily. I think the one, maybe Percy Harvin story, Brandon Marshall, to me, is the one that returning to his current team.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that's right.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I disagree with.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And then the lion sire signed Jared Aberdaris. Why is this news?

[Jason Moore]

I think the reason it's news is because of what happened yesterday.

[Mike Wright]

I did not put this in.

[Jason Moore]

All right, so my guy Mike thinks that Jared Aberdares is my guy because I like them. But then we're sitting on the couch in our new studio and he goes, oh, did you see the line? Signed your boy. And you know, he tells me it's Jared Aberdeen.

[Andy Holloway]

Go.

[Jason Moore]

That's. It wasn't my boy. I just thought he had the trust of. Of Aaron Rodgers. If you got the trust of Aaron Rodgers, you know, I go, oh, you know who you. And then I stop. I'm like, oh, you know who we should. Oh. And then Mike and I lock eyes and immediately I grab my phone out of my pocket. He's on his phone. And we are racing in our Dynasty league to see who can sign Geronimo Allison. And I could not remember his last name in that moment. And I finally get there, I'm like, oh, he's already signed. And Mike goes, who's that? He's like, because I just picked him up. So for you Dynasty owners, that was great.

[Andy Holloway]

And also Paul Richardson yesterday.

[Jason Moore]

Paul Richardson, a great Dynasty ad, former second round pick.

[Andy Holloway]

You never know what lock it's going to have coming Back from another major injury. Hopefully he'll be fine, but.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we're getting into it.

[Jason Moore]

You want answers?

[Mike Wright]

I think I'm entitled. You want answers?

[Andy Holloway]

What, the truth?

[Mike Wright]

You can't handle the truth.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a great movie. This is just a great movie. One of my favorites, that's for sure.

[Jason Moore]

Those actors are super overrated.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, kidding.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, well, why don't you, why don't you jump into what you got to talk about?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So before we get into the very specific wide receivers go through Jordy and Mike Evans consistency rating, we should talk and get a little bit of a lay of a land of the truth of how wide receivers were in 2016. Wide receivers this year are. We're very down. Especially your stud, your elite wide receivers at the pendulum swung to be a wide receiver year. Never. I don't remember the last year where, you know, the first three picks were wide receivers. It's usually running backs. And because of what happened in 2015, the pendulum swung and the big top wide receivers let you down. If you look at the lead leader in targets, which was Mike Evans, I think over the last five years or so, he would rank 15th, same with Ty Hilton in yards, same with the total fantasy points. Your top guys, your top producers this year at wide receiver were very, very down. But when you dig deeper into the numbers, you see that basically it was just most of it was that the touchdowns and things were spread to second tier wide receivers on teams. The passing attempts were not down, running backs, rushing attempts were not up. So what I would say if we're looking at the truth of this year as it pertains to going forward is don't swing the pendulum too far back to the other side. Now for me, my top three picks next year are running backs, but I am not off of elite wide receivers or thinking they're going to be down the way they were this year. I think this year will be an outlier. And so we need to stay on that middle road where you realize that those top wide receivers are worth more than what we saw this last year.

[Mike Wright]

When you all wide receivers. Something to keep in mind here. I was looking at quarterbacks and this year we had five passers over 30 touchdowns. Last year there was 11. So you cut that in half, there's less touchdowns to go around to all the wide receivers in the league.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you say, did I hear you correctly? You said last year there were how many in 2016.

[Mike Wright]

So this season we just had only five. Quarterbacks have more than 30 touchdowns the year before that, 11.

[Andy Holloway]

Gotcha.

[Mike Wright]

The year before that, nine. So passing touchdowns, that's just as an overall volume were down.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And that's obviously not where the NFL is trending. So we are going to get into the specific best wide receivers and look at their consistency. But before we do that, want to take a second here and thank today's sponsor, Blue Apron. We've talked about them for a long time because all three of us have used them. They are the best way to cook at home with fresh ingredients that are made for your meal. You don't have to go. It was so nice when you get your Blue Apron box and you don't have to go to sprouts or go to youryour places and grab your recipe and get all the different ingredients and then have a bunch of leftover ingredients that was just for that meal. Everything comes perfectly packaged with a recipe card and fresh local ingredients for you when you order with Blue Apron. They're a great company. Everything that they produce is humanely raised chickens, free range pork is raised naturally. It's quality ingredients and it's a good time for the family. So we recommend it. It's affordable and we highly recommend it. Check out some of the meals available in January. You got seared pork chops, wafero and camberry chutney, spaghetti squash and marinara with mushroom and garlic knots.

[Mike Wright]

Love garlic knots.

[Jason Moore]

Spicy shrimp and Korean rice cakes with cabbage and furake. Nobody knows how to say that, but I do know those are delicious. Those are my favorite kind of mushrooms. Here's what you do. You check out this week's menu. Get your first three meals for free with free shipping. Just go to blueapron.comballers and you're gonna love how good it feels, how good it tastes to create incredible home cooked meals with Blue Apron. So don't wait. Blueapron.com Ballers I was really curious.

[Andy Holloway]

I hadn't tried the canberries. Are the canberries pretty canberry?

[Jason Moore]

The canberries taste like canberries.

[Andy Holloway]

Are they good? I mean, they're good.

[Jason Moore]

They're very good.

[Mike Wright]

Well, there's a truth bomb. I hate to drop on you, but the canned jelly cranberries are by far superior to regular cranberries.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Well, that's the Thanksgiving poll that we were taking. All right, the truth about fantasy wide receivers. Mike, what is the scoring format we're talking through here?

[Mike Wright]

We are talking. So these are the way the guys finished and a half point ppr. And we are going to kind of split that difference by talking consistency in standard and ppr. So we're giving you everything. Giving you it all.

[Andy Holloway]

Giving you it all. As only Jason would say. Jordy Nelson. Jordy Nelson tops our list. 16 games, 97 receptions, 1257 yards and 14 touchdowns on 152 targets. Look, Jordy Nelson was outstanding this season. Outstanding. He only had two games the entire season where he was not in the top 48. That is our qualifier for a basically a dud game, a bust game. And so there were only two games for Jordy outside of that realm. He was in the top 2511 times. He was in the top five six different times. Look, what more can you say about a guy who is both consistent and finishes at the top of the rank?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it was an unbelievable season for Jordy and he's, he's scraped by number.

[Andy Holloway]

One, most consistent in both standard and ppa.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, and he scraped by the beginning of the season with, with touchdowns. But I mean we know that Jordy can be a touchdown machine. He just wasn't getting the, the normal touchdowns that you're used to. Jordy receiving, the yardage issues, sure, it was getting very low yards, but was scoring. And if you look at the way he performed against top half passing defenses versus botting bottom half defenses, it was actually slightly better against top passing defenses, which that's always good to see is you want these, those splits to be pretty close for when you're talking consistency. You don't want a guy who just like Alan Robinson last year destroyed bad defenses, destroyed them, but when he got up against a good defender, he put up sub average numbers. So it's, it's always good to see that.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, I think looking forward next year, Jordy Nelson is always undervalued.

[Mike Wright]

Always.

[Jason Moore]

Every single year.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think any of you guys. So he finished one, right?

[Jason Moore]

He finished one point PPR.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you draft him over Oda Beckham Jr. Julio Jones or Antonio Brown or Mike Evans?

[Jason Moore]

I don't draft him over the three when it comes to Mike Evans.

[Andy Holloway]

And I bet you don't draft him over Mike Evans.

[Jason Moore]

It's going to be very close. I think I might trust Aaron Rodgers more than I trust Jameis Winston looking, especially when you look at that consistency. Now that being said, Mike Evans was also very, very consistent.

[Andy Holloway]

So you and Mike Evans is 23 and Jordy Nelson's 31.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you definitely have. But the point is his draft value, where he, where he ends up actually going is probably going to net you a better value than most guys.

[Andy Holloway]

That's the point. I was just saying most people, including maybe us, all things being equal, not draft value included, might take those four younger guys.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think so. And just to give a point to what I was saying earlier, so this year he, Jordy finished with 256 fantasy points in half point PPR. Last year the sixth best wide receiver would have crushed him with 264. That was Alan Robinson.

[Andy Holloway]

Wow.

[Jason Moore]

You know you had, you had Alan Robinson, Odell Beckham, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones and Antonio Brown well out produced that last year. Antonio Brown had 310 points last year, so that's interesting. And Jordy was the number one this year and a half points. So that's, that's kind of what we're saying. There was this. So all those three big guys, they just didn't do what we had hoped they did. And most of it came touchdown wise.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you think Des Bryant will go ahead of Jordy Nelson next year?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I do definitely do if he.

[Andy Holloway]

I will if he finishes the year strong.

[Jason Moore]

I think he, I think no matter how he finishes in the.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what I mean. That's why the value.

[Jason Moore]

Bryant will go ahead of Jordy Nelson. I would rather have Jordyn.

[Mike Wright]

I'll take Jordyn there.

[Andy Holloway]

There will be an eventual drop off for Jordan Nelson, but it's not going to be his year. 31 season probably. Mike Evans comes in at number two on half point leagues. He had 96 receptions. He outpaced Jordy Nelson for yards with 13, 21, two less touchdowns with 12. Had 173 targets which was 21 more than Jordy Nelson. Comes in at number four in terms of consistency. So even though he was number two in the rankings, number four in terms of consistency. You know the one thing I love about him, he's the only wide receiver, the only one that did not have a performance outside the top 48. So what we would call a bust, he had zero of those. He had 10 in the top 25. He had three of them in the top five. So half as many as Jordy Nelson in the top five. But he played well and much like Jordy Nelson, he played well against good defenses. When he played top 16 defenses, he averaged 17 fantasy points a game. So that was better, three points better than what he did against bad defenses. Very impressive. You know, you have to wonder if that's a, you know, Jordan, he's a target. Monster Evans is a target.

[Jason Moore]

Led the league with 171 targets which again would have put him sixth place.

[Andy Holloway]

Last year, which is incredible. And, and you know, it's great that he came and he broke out and he had another great season and the touchdown numbers were there. You know, I, I'm not sure what to attribute the better performances against better defenses. Maybe just more of a reliance by Jameis Winston. Maybe they're down more and they're having to pass the ball. But he did not underwhelm against them. He didn't. It wasn't too big for him.

[Mike Wright]

They're going to be interesting next year. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, what do they do with the running game? We were split here on what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going to do with Dog Martin. Regardless, if they hold on to him, they won't have him for the first three games. Who was going to be their running back? Will they have running game to speak of or will Jameis have to fall back on Mike Evans? That's. Mike Evans was really cooking when they just had a very, very subpar running game. And they would just have to run through the air, as Jason would say to Mike Evans.

[Andy Holloway]

Bryce Butler was the other wide receiver I added in Dynasty. Oh, that's a tall Reggie.

[Mike Wright]

He is a free agent.

[Jason Moore]

Well, so is Terrence.

[Andy Holloway]

Terrence Williams.

[Mike Wright]

They're both free agents.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So Bryce Wetler was the other one, I believe.

[Mike Wright]

Let me. I'm saying that boldly, but I just, I know Williams making a list of these guys, so I'm going to double check that.

[Andy Holloway]

Sorry to distract us, but I finally came to mind. Antonio Brown was number three on, on this list. Terrible. Number two in the consistency ratings only is Bryce.

[Mike Wright]

Sorry. Bryce Butler is. Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Only two bad performances. He had four in the top five. He had 10 performances in top 25 and he did sit down one game, if you remember. So, you know, that's another one of those variables that maybe you don't think about when you look at the season ending stats. But Antonio Brown only played 15 games, still at 106 catches, which was second in the league. Correct. Behind Larry Fitzgerald.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

And then 12. 84 yards and 12 touchdowns. Look, Antonio Brown's still one of those guys that you have to think about above any of those three running backs.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

I wouldn't take him ahead of him because I value the running back position higher. And I think we've finally, unlike last year, part of last year's the resurgence of wide receivers in the draft rankings. It wasn't just like this thought that they're better or, you know, that they're more consistent. It was that we didn't know which running Backs you could lean on. And now I feel like you have three names that you can finally lean on. Was reliability.

[Mike Wright]

Bell had the suspension.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

When you look at data as to which wide receivers taken early and the percentage of ownership of those teams that won the championship, when you're talking about teams that drafted and held them, Antonio Brown still did very well. I think he was like a 13% championship owned and he was drafted to one spot. So if you want to put him ahead of other wide receivers or even running backs next year, I am still fine with that. You have to look. This was a real, I mean, surprisingly down year for Antonio Brown. You're talking about 154 targets. Granted, he missed the game, but that's still 154. He's usually at the 200 area, so you know you've got room to improve on this season.

[Mike Wright]

He's still. He'll still be my number one next year.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, overall, my.

[Mike Wright]

No, my number one wide receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

Gotcha. Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. I think he'll be my number one as well. That's the story of Antonio Brown. ADP number one.

[Jason Moore]

He's really good.

[Andy Holloway]

He's good. Odell Beckham Jr. His ADP was two in standard leagues, three in PPR leagues. Ended the year with over 100 receptions, 1367 yards. Had 169 targets, which puts him just behind Mike Evans on the target count. Consistency wise, he was good. He was very good. He only had one top five performance, which is kind of strange for Odell Beckham Jr.

[Mike Wright]

I think that's why people felt underwhelmed by him. Underwhelmed by him because he was. You're used to these explosive games with frequency from Odell Beckham.

[Andy Holloway]

The weak winners.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly. And he was. But he was actually real solid. I mean his numbers were on par for his. The first couple years of his career. Eli Manning had just a brutal year. I mean, watching Eli play, he just looked bad. It didn't look like. It looked like he was declining. And I don't. Did you see those comments from the Giants? I believe the GM was saying, yeah, he's probably on the back of his career. I mean it's. Wow, man, that's a. That's rough for you. GM come out and say that. But Beckham on the year was solid. Did take advantage of or. He played well against good, good defenses as well as bad. So there was. There wasn't a problem with Beckham. It was just. Was those lack of those weak winning performances.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll tell you right Now I would take Mike Evans over Oda Beckham Jr. Next year.

[Jason Moore]

Really I can tell you right now.

[Andy Holloway]

I will know, I will because not only did Evans finish better than him this year, which I think, you know, they're so close that who cares, right? But Odell Beckham Jr. Is much more risky to me in terms of potential suspensions risks. He's not as big. I think injury risks are higher for Odell Beckham Jr. You know, I guess you could convince me in a full PPR that I might, might lean that way. But I mean even reception wise they're pretty darn close. And I, you know, Odell Beckham Jr. You got this report coming out, punching through the wall, hitting his head against the wall, cursing out, you know, the, the, the Green Bay Packer, he's a fiery man. Well, I, look, we've seen it with certain players and I'm not going to classify him as the, you know, the Gordon Blackman because he hasn't had those type of mistakes.

[Mike Wright]

Very, very different.

[Andy Holloway]

But there are. What I meant my point was this. High profile wide receivers have missed time, Bryant, Gordon, whatever. I just want the least amount of risk. If all things are equal in that.

[Jason Moore]

Equation, I can get behind the fact.

[Andy Holloway]

That he's fun to watch, he's fun.

[Jason Moore]

To own is risky.

[Andy Holloway]

So let's move on now to the number five guy. You know those first four, they were pretty darn consistent.

[Mike Wright]

They were drafted to be that and.

[Andy Holloway]

They were so Ty Hilton is number five. Ty Hilton's number five. He, he was drafted, you know, in that. In the 30s.

[Mike Wright]

He was drafted to be a two.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And he over 16 games, career high in yardage, 1448 yards on 91 catches, six touchdowns. This is, you know, on an offense where the offensive line did not protect Andrew Luck in the at all pretty much. I mean but yet consistency wise he was still number six. He had four performances that were outside the top 48, but you're starting to get down into that range anyways.

[Jason Moore]

Ty Hilton was another one of those wide receivers drafted because most of the, most of your top wide receivers that you drafted were actually below the normal average for winning your championship. But Ty Hilton was one of those that was well above the highest was Jordy. So if you look at these guys who. Let's take out the top three, right, your massive wide receivers, what are the guys have in common that were the slightly lower drafted, you know, falls to the second, third, fourth round that really helped you win a championship quarterback. Yes, exactly. Ty Hilton, Jordy Nelson. The thing that really helped them is that they had Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck. I think that's something we need to keep in mind going next year. We all, we know that. But if you're going to have a tiebreaker, you know, and you've got up and coming, you know, got Aaron, Allen.

[Andy Holloway]

Robinson. Robinson, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And you, you take a look, man.

[Andy Holloway]

Brandon Marshall.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly.

[Mike Wright]

The quarterback is really the solid tiebreaker. Now, sir, Mix a lot would love this because there is a big but with Ty Hilton.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

And that is.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't like big butts and I'm not going to lie, but b u.

[Mike Wright]

T single t the top six against good defenses, he was averaging just over 57 yards. Against, bottom half, over 123 yards. I mean, there's a. That's a red flag.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so that is a, that is a yellow flag for.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, it's.

[Mike Wright]

It's a red flag for me.

[Andy Holloway]

And the reason is, is because despite that disparity, his consistency rating was still sixth Fair. And I attribute that to an easy schedule.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I mean, that's.

[Andy Holloway]

No, they did well. He had eight against top five, eight against bottom. But I attribute that in part to, you know, what is. What does Ty Hilton do? Big plays.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Down the field, when Andrew Luck has three or four minutes, Ty Hilton normally has a radius of about 10ft around him.

[Mike Wright]

Three or four.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm sorry, three or four seconds. Three or four seconds in the pocket.

[Mike Wright]

It's the longest pocket presence of all time.

[Andy Holloway]

I wasn't talking about the Raiders. Sorry. No. But when Luck has time, you see, he finds Hilton and Hilton has no one around him.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I attribute that disparity to the fact that pass rushes are different between those two type of defenses.

[Mike Wright]

And I will say Moncrief missed half the year. So we did. Oh, muncher. But Hilton really took advantage of when he was, when he was the alpha dog. Not that I'm. And I'm just saying this to keep.

[Andy Holloway]

In mind, that's a big disparity next year. His points per game were half that for you out there. When he plays a great defense, they were half this past year.

[Mike Wright]

I like Hilton. I will draft Ty Hilton next year. But Ty Hilton does not skyrocket to me to a top of the second round like likely.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. He's the first guy in this list, though, where, you know, maybe even more than Jordy. You could have had him as your third pick.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

And that's, I mean, that's how you win.

[Andy Holloway]

That would have been a difference maker because if you had Gone. Running back. Running back. And then Hilton. You have a one, and you have a one that ended up in the top five. So we're moving on Julio Jones. Julio.

[Mike Wright]

Julio.

[Andy Holloway]

No, it's a silent.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, Julio Hones.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, the silent L. Julio. All right. Only 14 games played. He missed two games. Look, we know the story with Julio Jones. Nobody's questioning the talent, the ability, the offense, the quarterback anymore. 83 receptions for 1400 plus yards. Only six touchdown. That's been the Achilles heel for Julio Jones. You saw at the end of the season when it didn't matter for fantasy owners, they finally used him in the darn red zone.

[Mike Wright]

What the crap, man?

[Andy Holloway]

And he made an incredible catch of the year type of catch. That's the problem. You look jordy. 14 touchdowns, Julio, six touchdowns. Yet he still can finish six on this list. I think Julio, because of this year, maybe he ends up being the best value in the draft next year because he. Because I think people are going to take. Maybe people are taking Brown, Evans, Beckham ahead of Julio. Where last year it was a very solid debate that it was Julio or Brown. There's no reason Julio can't be the number one.

[Jason Moore]

Do you worry about Kyle Shanahan most likely being given a head coaching opportunity somewhere and losing that offensive coordinator who's helped Matt Ryan?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't. I don't worry about that at all. Because Julio and Ryan have had a rapport beyond Shanahan for years with volume.

[Mike Wright]

He was 1606 the year before Shanahan got there.

[Andy Holloway]

The problem is that six just needs to go up and he's riskier. He misses a game or two with some sort of leg or lower body injury.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's not playing 16.

[Andy Holloway]

All that being said, consistency rating ended up number eight in standard, nine in PPR, so, you know, little lower than his finished rank. Nine top 25 performances for outside the top 48. He's Julio Jones. He's young, he's great. He's got a good quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

So let's talk about the young, great, good quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, you're number seven on our list.

[Jason Moore]

Sounds like.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you talking about Michael Thomas? Michael Thomas? Michael Thomas, ADP of 149?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's a. That. That's how you win. That's how you win some drafts is. Is getting the right guy. The number one wide receiver for the Saints is young, plays in the Marquis Colston role. He has, you know, 15 games. He only missed one and finished with 92 receptions for 1137 yards and nine touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Is he the you know how sometimes those shows will go two or three seasons in it and then they'll change the character? The actor? Yes, they'll change the actor for the same character. You said he played the role of Marcus Cole.

[Jason Moore]

That's exactly.

[Andy Holloway]

I figured they just casted him.

[Jason Moore]

They just got younger.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, doesn't that guy look different?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

They have a new actor in there.

[Mike Wright]

The. That was brought to mind. The boyfriend of. In Game of Thrones.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

Daenerys boyfriend.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I never remember his name.

[Andy Holloway]

Completely changed. His, his.

[Mike Wright]

I thought it was a brand new character. It's like, where did this guy come from?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, well, Michael Thomas.

[Jason Moore]

Fabio was not getting it done.

[Andy Holloway]

Michael Thomas is a brand new character. He did sit a game too. He still had 92 catches and 1100 plus yards and nine touchdowns. He said, Julio, I'll see your six. I'll raise you three. And I got Drew Brees, his consistency rating didn't let you down. Number eight. Three top five performances, which is great to see from a rookie. Just an impressive season. And here's another little feather in the cap of Michael Thomas. 15.8 points per game against top 16 defenses compared to 11 against bottom defenses. He was outstanding. He was outstanding. That's all there is to it. Possession guy, red zone guy, third down guy. Really curious to see what happens to that wide receiver court because if Brandon Cooks keeps being the squeakiest of wheels, you know, the wide receiver one is really a wide receiver two, but doesn't want to admit it if that happens next year. You know, there was talk this past year about Cooks being traded. You don't, you're not going to pay him. I don't think they're going to go out and pay Brandon Cooks when the time comes. So Michael Thomas is the guy they're going to keep.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. The thing I like about Michael Thomas is the red zone opportunity, the touchdowns that he really became that go to guy. And we've seen in years past when, you know, think of Jimmy Graham, right. When Drew Brees has a weapon that is consistent, you know, in the red zone, he will abuse it. And that's what you started to see happen with Michael Thomas. So going forward, I think he's going to be a safe bet to have near double digit touchdowns because you've got Drew Brees who's always going to be throwing, you know, well over 30.

[Mike Wright]

And this is, this is Cook's last. Just to talk about what you're doing. This is Cook's last year under contract. He of course has that. Oh, wait, rookie Option, is he. I thought the rookie option was the fifth year.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, you're going to need to vet that before you.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Contract year discussion.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I'm looking at his contract right now, and so he's played four years. This is his fifth year coming up in 2018. Which would mean they.

[Jason Moore]

They need to invoke.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

His fifth year rookie option. Yeah. Why, I'm sure they will.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, of course.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Saints window opens, I believe on Monday, or actually last Monday, I think is when they could start to actually put that in place.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

So I don't know if they have done that yet. You should.

[Mike Wright]

They will, but I'm just saying this. Is this the last year it would.

[Andy Holloway]

Be an $8.5 million cap hit if they invoke it. Ooh. So I think we'll do that.

[Mike Wright]

But is it. Is this the last year of. Of Cooks in New Orleans?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I don't know.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know.

[Andy Holloway]

I do know Michael Thomas was great and I look forward to seeing what he does in the future.

[Jason Moore]

Man, I just want to hit the pause button. As we were talking about all of these great wide receivers. Michael Thomas, we're about to move to. Devonte Adams, Jordy Ty, Antonio, Mike Evans, they all have good quarterbacks. I mean, Mike Evans is really the only one that doesn't have the true elite quarterback. Even though obviously, you know, first round draft guy. But as you look at these top. Even after that's going to be Brandon Cooks. They all have a great quarterback throwing to them. And if you look at last year, how they, you know, how guys were drafted, sometimes we, you know, we discount the quarterback for wide receivers.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, yeah, I mean, you have obviously elite level talent in a guy like Demaryius Thomas that suffered from quarterback play.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

It ended up outside of the top five. A guy that used to be a top five guarantee down at 16 this year because quarterback, even guys like Jarvis Landry. Right. I mean, it hurts. It hurts. Devonte Adams, number eight, ended up the number five most consistent standard league wide receiver for a guy who is kind of known for dropping the ball.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

But came through, you know, 997 yards, that has to stink. But it's incredible to me because I look at his stat line and he's the number eight. And I guess it all comes down to those touchdowns. He had 12 touchdowns on the year, only 75 catches, 997 yards. If you had to ask me right now, chance for regression. Adams is the number one guy on this list because those 12 touchdowns, I don't believe that the catches go up or the yards go up next year and so do I believe 12 touchdowns might stay the same? Maybe. I think it probably comes down. And so because of that, you know you had Jared Cook injured for a lot of the year you had. You know, Randall Cobb was injured. I don't think he gets 12 touchdowns next year. So you talk about a regression candidate. For me personally, were the numbers impressive? Yeah, but I'm not on the Dante Adams boat. I know Mike is.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm still on.

[Andy Holloway]

It's a shaky boat.

[Mike Wright]

It certainly is a shaky boat, but.

[Andy Holloway]

It does have a good captain and.

[Mike Wright]

That'S why I like Devonte Adams. Aaron Rodgers just has the. He seems to love Devonte Adams. Regardless of the drops. There was. Jay had had brought up this a tongue in cheek highlight video of Devonte Adams of. It's just all of his mistakes over the year. And this is how do you want to look at that video? Do you want to look and say.

[Andy Holloway]

In spite of he.

[Mike Wright]

He's terrible. He drops touchdowns, he drops easy passes. The guy had 12 touchdowns. That means he could have had a lot more. So it depends on how you want to look at it. 121 targets from Aaron Rodgers was consistent. Far better for standard. He was only the 14th most consistent. When you're talking in terms of PPR gave you four dud games. So this isn't a top two round pick type of guy. And his. His split against bottom defenses is also. It's not Ty Hilton drastic, but you're talking 47 yards to 74 yards when you talk the split against good top half and bottom half passing defenses. But I still like him.

[Andy Holloway]

I would as a two though.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, as a two or like he's a guy that I'm fine drafting and probably around that fourth round area.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. We need to move on. Unless Jason has something he wants to say about.

[Jason Moore]

I'm more on the side that I think he will repeat close to here because we saw it with James Jones.

[Mike Wright]

Just going to bring him up. Remember James Jones.

[Jason Moore]

It feels like he's playing that role.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

So I think he can keep up with it. That being said, I do think that Aaron Rodgers not throwing 40 touchdowns next year because hopefully 45.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, they can get.

[Jason Moore]

I'm just saying hopefully they get their. Their. He might though their running game better and their defense better where he doesn't have to. Yeah, he might. Obviously he's great. But 40 is.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a lot. Yeah. Brandon Cooks is number nine and here's where you start to see a big disparity between finishing position and consistency. Brandon Cooks was the number nine overall wide receiver. His average position was in the late 20s in standard leagues, 23rd in PPR leagues. He had 1100 plus yards on 117 targets. The numbers are good. The numbers are real good. And if you had to, you know, if you look into next year and you could make an argument that says just take the lower valued wide receiver and New Orleans between Thomas and Cook.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Because their numbers were so similar. Eight touchdowns, nine touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

But the consistency is really the thing that would make you go, well, maybe I don't just want to take the lower guy because if Cooks ends up being the lower drafted guy, I think his value is much less than his end of season numbers.

[Andy Holloway]

His consistency numbers put him at number 23 as opposed to number nine where.

[Jason Moore]

He'S just kill your team.

[Andy Holloway]

He only had six top 25 performances, three in the top five and four bust performances. If I could line Brandon Cooks up as that wide receiver, two, I would be really comfortable because Cooks will give you weak winning performances from the wide receiver too. But if I had to lean on him. Here's a great question. How would you feel about having both those guys as your starting wide receivers every week? The Saints, Thomas and Cooks, you just run them both out there.

[Mike Wright]

Not bad.

[Andy Holloway]

It's like a Marshall, Decker.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. We'll get the question, as we always do. People wondering, how do you feel about stacking guys from the same team? And you say, well, there's always, there's a couple offenses that can carry that. You have the packers when Cobb and Jordy, you would have been sensational. The Broncos when Manning was the quarterback. Marshall and Decker, there's, there's scenarios where it's okay because, you know, faults.

[Andy Holloway]

When Manning was the quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah. But you know, there's certain offenses that just have a, they have that scoring threshold that they can sustain. Multiple fantasy wide receivers.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So Brandon Cooks, that's his story. Not consistent, but a great season. So you have to evaluate where, what that value is for you. This is the last one we're going to discuss today on the show. So we'll get through the top ten. The next guy. Dougie, Dougie, Dougie. Second half Doug.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, Doug Baldwin ended the year as the number 10 fantasy wide receiver. It's a tale of two halves for him. And so that put him at number 33 on the consistency rankings. He had three top five performances, five top 25 and four outside of the top 48. You know, 94 receptions, 1100 yards and seven touchdowns. It all looks good. But he just wasn't a week to week consistent guy in the first half of the year.

[Mike Wright]

Well, you had the, you have that the new elite lethal strategy. People want to talk about A is 0 RB. Did we just, did we debunk that strategy? Do you got to go running back heavy? This is what you need to remember. You trade for Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin right at week eight. That's how you win your league.

[Andy Holloway]

Second half of the season for Baldwin. Double digits in five of nine games, five of eight games. You know and some of those, you.

[Jason Moore]

Know, I mean that, that game against Arizona, 13 for 171 and a touchdown. He has the potential to put up monster games.

[Andy Holloway]

The big, the big problem for him because when you look at his season, he only scored in five of their 16 games. So yes, one of them was a three touchdown game but he only scored in five games. And so that, that was kind of a, I think a frustrating part of owning Doug Baldwin. You had a period of time where five of six games in the first half were single digit games. He only had 300 yard games on the year. It's just one of those things where I think he is what he is. And I think last year obviously those touchdown numbers were outlandish. They were wild and crazy.

[Mike Wright]

Do you think he drops in drafts or does he end up.

[Andy Holloway]

He did last year. He was the 50th guy off the board despite the 13 touchdowns. I think he probably ends up around the same spot. Maybe. Yeah, probably the same spot.

[Jason Moore]

And I can tell you.

[Andy Holloway]

And I'd probably draft him.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Because that draft position is too good.

[Jason Moore]

All day when he's there. Because if you talk about maybe regressing to the mean, maybe last year's touchdown totals were too high, this year's were too low.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I don't think they're too low. I don't call the mean the average of the last two years. His, his history in his career is not in the 13 touchdown range.

[Mike Wright]

No, but it's different for Baldwin.

[Andy Holloway]

You have an ascending 43537 and then one year of 14. He's not a, he's not a red zone guy. He just scored 14 times.

[Mike Wright]

I think he can score very well in the red zone. But just you have to look at the career also of Russell Wilson and the offense of Seattle. They were a run team for those first couple years even with Russell Wilson as the quarterback. And they're transitioning more to letting him, letting Russell Wilson be the captain of the team, be the engine of the offense. And he was decimated for the entire first half of the season. Russell Wilson could barely move.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, I'll put you on the spot then, because here's who the. I'm going to give you a choice between two wide receivers that I see very, very alike.

[Mike Wright]

Okay?

[Andy Holloway]

Doug Baldwin, Julian Edelman, who do you take next year?

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to take Doug Baldwin. Doug Baldwin, I feel like is there's fewer weapons, you know, with Julian Edelman, to me I worry about, okay, is Michael Floyd, is Malcolm Mitchell, is Gronk going to take. Is it Bennett, is it. There's, there's too many options there. Whereas I see Doug Baldwin. Maybe there are other people, but Doug Baldwin is the number one there.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm with you. And he's had his reception totals rise five consecutive seasons this year. You know, he's played 16 games, by the way, for the past four years and pretty much his whole career, 94 receptions compared to 78 last year. 126 targets compared to 104. The yardage was up. Everything was up. I see him as Edelman's 6, 7 touchdown, maybe 8 touchdown range as what you should expect from him. You've got Jimmy Graham back into the fold. You did not have that last year when that 14 touchdowns happened. I like Doug Baldwin. Don't get me wrong, that draft position is crazy. If he stays around there, and he probably will. He's also two years younger than Edelman. So that is it for today's episode. Hopefully you enjoyed the truth. Keep it on file for next year. Well, it's January 10th, so keep it on file. We'll go through some more names. Some. You know, it's sometimes when you go through that, you know, 12 through 24 range of wide receivers, there's even more insight, some more guys that you can snag earlier in your draft store, in your data banks, you know, for next year. You guys have any closing thoughts?

[Jason Moore]

I think maybe a next episode we can squeeze in a couple of guys that maybe did not Finish in the 12 to 24 range, but were drafted to do so. So we can take a look at some of the truth of those guys and be wise going into next season.

[Andy Holloway]

Stay tuned for the show after the show on YouTube. Exclusive to YouTube. Don't even know what we're talking about yet.

[Mike Wright]

And as always, fantasyjocks.com where winners go, the code is footballers.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitterffballers.