Fantasy Wildcards + Cook Holdout, Rebuild Tips - Fantasy Football Podcast

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: Fantasy Wildcards + Cook Holdout, Rebuild Tips
Release Date: June 9, 2020
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

---

Introduction

The Fantasy Footballers kick off the episode with their usual camaraderie and updates. Mike Wright notes the absence of Jay Grizz due to a "stuffy nose" and highlights Al Borland filling in the ones and twos (00:51). The team shares a light-hearted moment about Mike sporting a Vikings cap on YouTube (01:52), setting the stage for an engaging discussion.

Rebuild Tips for Dynasty Leagues

The episode delves into strategies for fantasy managers looking to rebuild their dynasty teams.

Jason Moore emphasizes the importance of trading older veterans for high draft picks. He suggests targeting players like Adam Thielen and Keenan Allen, who are nearing the end of their prime years (03:09). Jason advises waiting to trade these veterans until teams seeking championships are willing to offer top draft picks, maximizing return value.

Mike Wright adds that even within a rebuild, managers can piece together victories by leveraging aged players who still contribute, such as Jameson Crowder or Julian Edelman (04:59). He highlights the potential to build a competitive team without fully committing to a prolonged rebuild.

Andy Holloway recommends acquiring backup running backs, who are generally more affordable and have the potential to become starters as their teams’ needs evolve (06:11). Players like P. Ryan or Latavius Murray represent cost-effective options that can bolster a rebuilding team (07:38).

Key News Highlights

Dalvin Cook Holdout

One of the episode’s focal points is Dalvin Cook's decision to hold out pending a reasonable contract extension. Mike Wright relays the news from ESPN’s Adam Schefter, noting the uncertainty it introduces for fantasy managers (08:41).

Andy Holloway supports Cook’s stance, stating, “I do not blame him at all” (10:56). However, when analyzing his fantasy value, Andy discusses the increased risk due to Cook's holdout and the possibility of him missing the entire season if a deal isn't reached (12:28).

Jason Moore expresses significant concern, labeling Cook as "the riskiest player in fantasy football this year" due to his combined injury history and contract holdout (11:38). He mentions that Cook’s status could shift his value drastically, advising managers to be cautious when drafting him.

Additional NFL News

• Todd Gurley has passed his physical and is set to join the Atlanta Falcons’ training camp (15:20). This development is cautiously optimistic for fantasy managers holding Gurley’s value.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ head coach Bruce Arians announced a base offense of 12 personnel, indicating a potential shift in offensive strategy (16:38). The hosts debate the implications for key players like Chris Godwin and Mike Evans (17:15).

• Titans’ Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith stated that Derek Henry’s workload will depend on game performance, maintaining his unpredictable fantasy value (19:14).

Fantasy Wildcards Discussion

The hosts define fantasy wild cards as players with projections that have a wide range of possible outcomes, making them challenging to predict reliably (21:35). They explore several candidates, each bringing unique risks and rewards to fantasy rosters.

Devonte Parker (23:04)

Jason Moore discusses Devonte Parker's fluctuating career, highlighting his potential to outperform expectations after a solid finish last season. However, he remains skeptical due to his inconsistent performance and changes in quarterback dynamics, especially with the introduction of Tua Tagovailoa.

Mike Wright concurs, placing Parker at a fifth-round pick but cautioning about his volatility (25:57).

Mark Ingram (26:25)

Andy Holloway focuses on Mark Ingram, who finished as a top-10 running back last year on a high-volume Ravens offense. He expresses doubt about repeating such a performance, given the Ravens' regression and the addition of rookie J.K. Dobbins (28:35).

Jason Moore points out that Ingram’s efficiency might not sustain, making him a risky yet potentially rewarding wildcard (29:23).

Julian Edelman (31:28)

Mike Wright raises concerns about Julian Edelman's future with the New England Patriots, especially with Tom Brady transitioning teams. He questions whether Edelman can maintain his high reception and yardage numbers with a new quarterback system (32:42).

Jason Moore remains cautious, comparing Edelman’s situation to past quarterbacks whose performance declined sharply in their final seasons (35:11).

DK Metcalf (40:22)

Andy Holloway examines DK Metcalf’s explosive rookie season, questioning whether he can sustain and build upon his performance given the Seahawks' existing receiver hierarchy with Tyler Lockett (40:34). He categorizes Metcalf as a significant risk due to his dependency on Russell Wilson’s playstyle.

Mike Wright echoes these sentiments, noting that while Metcalf has high potential, his role within the Seahawks' balanced offense limits his upside compared to standalone receiving stars (42:44).

Jared Cook (45:38)

Mike Wright introduces Jared Cook as another wildcard, highlighting his inconsistent reception numbers despite being in a stable quarterback situation with Drew Brees (45:39).

Jason Moore agrees, pointing out the unpredictability of Cook’s target volume and the risk of non-PPR value, which could hinder his tight end slot contributions (47:18).

Conclusion

The Fantasy Footballers wrap up the episode by recapping the discussed wildcards and emphasizing the importance of assessing risk versus reward when incorporating such players into fantasy rosters. They encourage listeners to stay engaged, make informed decisions, and embrace the unpredictability that wildcards bring to the fantasy season.

---

Notable Quotes:

• Jason Moore on Rebuilding: “If you're in a rebuild and your team's not good enough to compete, there's several things you're going to need to do.” (03:21)

• Andy Holloway on Wildcards: “I would say fantasy wild card is a player where when you're building out their projection, you realize that they could exceed that by a lot or they could come short by also a lot.” (21:35)

• Jason Moore on Dalvin Cook: “He's too risky for me to have on a team right now.” (12:28)

• Jason Moore on Julian Edelman: “When the wheels fall off, it will come with Thor's hammer and it will destroy Tom Brady's fantasy value.” (37:16)

• Mike Wright on Jared Cook: “Jared Cook should be making that list. We've had high expectations not met.” (45:39)

---

For more insights and discussions, join the Fantasy Footballers community at JoinTheFoot.com and follow them on Twitter @theffballers.

Transcript

[Mike Wright]

Foreign.

[Jason Moore]

To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome in Tuesday, June 9, the fantasy footballers. Back with you. Mike Wright is here. Yes, I am here. Andy Holloway. Yes, me. That's me. And then it may not look. Oh, there he is. Jason Moore is present as well. In spirit, not in body, in voice, not in body.

[Jason Moore]

Virtual body is probably best for me anyways. So this is great news. Yeah, I told Jay Grizz, get out of my life. Got a stuffy nose, being cautious, staying home and yet still here for the foot clan.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, and we're thankful for that. It's going to be a great show. We're talking fantasy wild cards today. Some mailbag. We got some big news to talk about as well. But yeah, it's a new day. I mean, if you get a sniffle and a sneeze, you stay at home. Just get out of my life, Jay. Yeah, but we have a great show. We also have Judge Giamatti's at home. So we've got Al Borland running the ones and twos. The ones and twos back there. But we are here a little bit later than a normal episode. But we gave the staff the day off yesterday as kind of a makeup for Memorial Day. We were pushing the UDK and obviously the UDK was released on the first and so we gave them the day off and here we are with lots to talk about.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. Yes.

[Mike Wright]

And if you're watching on YouTube, which is YouTube.com the fantasy footballers, you'll see Mike is wearing a Vikings cap.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I am a Vikings fan of. The McCardinals are my number one team. But I still have a burning love for Minnesota Vikings as my number two team. And I mean, it's. We're actually kind of serendipitous that we are recording the today's show a little bit later than normal because in the off season very often we pre record the day earlier. Would we have even had this news had the show come out at the regular time?

[Mike Wright]

Probably not. Probably not. So you're welcome. Yes. Yeah, so we'll get into that. Let's start with a quick question though, by the way, you can follow us on twitter@the ff ballers. A reminder, we have a giveaway right now. Footclain giveaway.com assigned Devonte Adams jersey over there. Lots of you are entering. We'll give that away at the end of this month. But here's the quick question. It comes from Instagram. He says, what advice? This is from C. Harper 7:11.

[Andy Holloway]

I would have called him Charper.

[Mike Wright]

Charper.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know, though.

[Jason Moore]

It's possible it's Harper as well.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it could be Harper.

[Mike Wright]

What advice would you have for someone who is in a rebuild in a dynasty league? Jason, let's turn to you first. What advice would you give to somebody who's going through a rebuild in their dynasty league?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, so if you're in a rebuild and your team's not good enough to compete, there's several things you're going to need to do. And, you know, one is you're going to trade the older veterans for the highest draft picks you can. Right. If you're not going to win in the next year or two, a list of guys would be like Adam Thielen, Robert Woods, Ty Hilton, Keenan Allen. These guys are all, you know, 28, 29, 30 years old. Where three. Three years from now, when you're ready to rock, you're, you know, they're not going to help you anymore. So those are the types of pieces you rebuild. And I would, I would say a pro tip is wait to trade them. Wait until, you know, which teams just need that guy to push themselves over the top towards a championship and they're willing to give up their great, you know, picks to. To, you know, you end up getting a 1 instead of a 2 for some of these guys because they're willing to, you know, push through. And I would also say this is fortuitous with the news of today. You might be a good team to buy low on guys who are suspended or holding out. So if, you know, if all of a sudden, a couple weeks from now, it's reported Dalvin Cook's totally ready to miss the whole season if he doesn't have a contract, maybe that Dalvin Cook owner is willing to sell him lower than you could usually a young piece like that. So if you can buy low and then the great news is you hope he sits out because you, I mean, tank responsibly. Right? You want. You want that. You want that great pick next year, which means put a, put a lineup up. But oh, oh, no, my starter's holding out.

[Mike Wright]

And I would say, yeah, yeah, I would say, too. You know, just to piggyback on that, you people in a rebuild sometimes feel like they are destined to defeat for multiple years, which might be the case with the way that your league lays itself out. But if you're trading those pieces that you're talking about, Jason, you can piece victories together in a dynasty league with the most aged and Most decrepit and 1 year left type of players. So if you're sending in an Adam Thielen out and you're getting a draft pick, but you can have a Jameson Crowder tossed in or somebody that is Julian Edelman who we'll talk about later on the show that people just look for, those guys are dead. In a dynasty league, you can piece victories together with old guys that no one cares about during. You know, because there's a certain category of dynasty player that is kind of a hands off player Right. Where people don't want to touch them anymore. The AJ Greens maybe, maybe it's the one year rentals of Mark Ingram or somebody like that. So you don't have to resign yourself to defeat. At least I don't, I don't compete in a rebuild.

[Jason Moore]

I think there are different kinds of rebuilds. Right. There is the complete blow it up rebuild where you are, your team is not good enough.

[Mike Wright]

Like Mike's dynasty team last year.

[Jason Moore]

Sure. I mean he was in the championship a couple years earlier. His team was good. But then, you know, people aged out and injuries happen and you know, so then sometimes you need to blow it up. And if you're blowing it up, you don't piece together those victories. I think for the most part the three of us usually try to rebuild on the fly like as we are still winning. And that would be a good tip for that type of a rebuild to always still have a chance at getting in the playoffs and sneaking that championship.

[Andy Holloway]

And I would say go after backup running backs because generally you can get them cheaper. I mean you're not going to be able to go and get Alexander Madison very, very cheap right now. But had you gone and tried to trade for him last year, it would have been a lot different of a situation. And just these like P. Ryan, the Michael P. Ryan for the New York Jets. Right now he's levy on Bell's backup. Right now he has basically no fantasy value because you would project that levy on Bell is going to get almost every single snap for that team. But is the Isle of Bell on that team in two years? P. Ryan, does he have the shot to become a starter? Those are the types of players that you can get on the cheap season on the cheap compared to paying for starters. If you're, if you know you can't win.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Then you like get this team that will get better over time as they, as they mature into starting positions.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And you know, early in the off season, Mike, you brought up several names of guys who are coming into that Year where the holdout could happen, right. And you could target their backups. Like you just said, you can't get Alexander Madison now. You can't. But you could get Latavius Murray and Gio Bernard and other guys where Mixon and Camara have not said they're holding out yet. You know, you can trade for some of those guys or even a year out. Look at the next year's draft class.

[Mike Wright]

Jason, would you like to blow your dynasty team up?

[Jason Moore]

Man, I think as the back to back champ going for Champ, Champ, Champ. I will not be blowing that thing up.

[Andy Holloway]

I would be Jordan right now.

[Jason Moore]

He's darn right. Darn right. I need that trilogy.

[Mike Wright]

I would walk away and start playing fantasy baseball. That's what I would do.

[Jason Moore]

That's my goal.

[Mike Wright]

That's the solution right now. All right, let's get into the news.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league.

[Mike Wright]

All right, the big news. Dalvin Cook will not participate in any team activities until he receives what he called a reasonable new contract. This is from ESPN's Adam Schefter and other sources. He is out without a reasonable contract extension. He is not showing up for camp or beyond. So one of the most difficult off season situations to be in as a fantasy owner. We've been here before. We've been here with Lev, we've been here with Zeke in a slightly different fashion, but where you don't know the future. Obviously the team seems exceptionally yoked to Dalvin Cook in its offensive strategy, in what it wants to do. He's been as productive as any running back in football. And he's sitting here at the. He's got like a $1.3 million contract for his final year. His quarterback's making 30 million a year and he's taking a stand.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And I do not blame him at all. So this is certainly. I'm always on the team of player. Go get the bag. Go get it when you can. But for us as breaking it down for fantasy purposes, we have to be. We kind of have to put on our business cap. Okay, let's think realistically. Dalvin Cook has not a ton of leverage. I mean, the leverage he has is saying, look what I've done for your team on the field. Look how much better the team is when I am playing, when I'm your starting running back. But if he sits out with, with the way that the, the new collective bargaining agreement works, one he needs to report sooner, like holdouts, it's. It's a much different situation than it was in the past two. If he, in fact chooses to hold out, he would become a restricted free agent, which means that he's not in a position like Le'Veon Bell was, where if he sits out a year, he just gets to walk and go wherever he wants. So he doesn't have that type of contractual leverage.

[Mike Wright]

He's in more of a, well, Melvin Gordon type of situation. And we've been down this road where gambling on Lev's return was devastating for fantasy owners. Gambling on Zeke's return paid off in spades if you bought him in that interim period of doubt. But then Melvin Gordon, you know, it took. Took weeks into the season. So, you know, the question for us, you know, you got the ultimate draft kit. Our rankings, our projections, our thought process around risk. Where do you guys adjust Cook today? How do you view him today? Because he was in that upper tier of starters at the running back position. So if you're drafting in a. In a best ball league, if you're drafting in a dynasty league. Are you. Are you afraid?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah, go ahead, Jay.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I would be very afraid. I mean, when you're in that tier of player where Dalvin Cook has been going, all the players around him are also great. I'm taking the other great players who don't have, you know, Dalvin Cook before this holdout was already a very risky, you know, very high reward, but a very risky player with his shoulder injuries. So now he is the riskiest player in fantasy football this year. The shoulder combined with the holdout, combined with the draft cost says he is. He's too risky for me to have on a team right now. Unless he's like, sure, if he drops to the third or fourth round, yeah, that's fine. Then I'm not choosing between, you know, him and Alvin Camara. You know, I'm choosing between him and some, you know, replaceable options. So I.

[Mike Wright]

Are you drafting Kenyan Drake ahead of Dalvin Cook today? Because that's right at that line where, you know, I think the ADP of Kenyan Drake might be.

[Jason Moore]

If I was on the clock right now and I could only pick those two players, I would take Kenyan Drake.

[Mike Wright]

I think Cook gets a deal done.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I lean on the side that I'm. I have lowered him in the projections a bit because we just have a history, right. Of players when they say they're going to hold out in recent history, they hold out. So I am taking the news report serious, certainly, but we are so far out of anything actually happening. We don't even know when training Camp is going to start. This is the perfect time for Dalvin Cook to. To flex the little levers that he has of saying, guys, I'm. I don't care when camp is. I'm not going to show up unless you give me a contract. So as of right now, I still think Dalvin Cook will be back if I. But, I mean, if I'm in a draft right now like Jason, it's. It would be very difficult to do that, knowing that, knowing the risk, what that Dalvin Cook is bringing to my team of not even being there. He's just sitting on the bench while I can't do anything about it and I have to wait for him to come back. Then all the things of players that if they're not in a training camp, is their body ready to go it or is.

[Mike Wright]

Is it a slow start? Right. Jason's point about the injury is significant as well.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Because Cook has dealt with it and we love Dalvin Cook. We love the player on the field when he's healthy and ready to go. But we. There are some variables in place that has raised. That have raised his risk to a point where if you can choose somebody of a similar tier, you should.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. In the Minnesota Vikings, cap situation is not the best. Dalvin Cook is lucky that Stefan Diggs got traded. If, like, if Stefan Diggs is there and David Cook says, I'm holding out without a deal. David Cook is holding out because they're. They're not going to be able to pay him. They can figure out a way to get it done, but this is a very, very high risk situation.

[Mike Wright]

And there were talks about Cook getting an extension well before this declaration.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

But apparently they have not had, you know, three weeks ago, the talk was, oh, we've had some productive talks. This seems to be the next step of negotiation so many times where once those talks slow down, it's like, here's how our proposals are reasonable. You need to accept a reasonable. Now, who knows what reasonable means? It means two different things. But other news, and we'll be following the Dalvin Cook situation closely. Todd Gurley finally was able to fly to Atlanta. Pass his physical.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Step one, Jason's back.

[Jason Moore]

Well, Jason, I've been a pro. Todd Gurley's fantasy value this off season supporter. I think the receptions are coming and it's always been on the back of my mind. It's like, well, he has not yet even passed his physical. So this is just, you know, this is like a prerequisite class that is, I'VE graduated and now I get to go to the class I was trying to get to.

[Mike Wright]

There are only a certain number of players in the NFL where passing the physical is a real benchmark for their potential. It is good that that took place. We've got the what, the hype train video of him on the. The arthritic knee lifting a bunch of weight. Have you seen this?

[Andy Holloway]

I have not, but not seen. It is the season for just the season for workout videos to get us all really excited.

[Mike Wright]

So, yeah, the more you post those, the higher your ADP goes. That's how it works. Yep. But it's good. It's not a bad thing. It's a good thing.

[Andy Holloway]

Correct.

[Mike Wright]

So, okay. Another big piece of news that kind of broke towards the end of last week. Head coach Bruce Arians, Tampa bay said that 12 personnel will be the Buccaneers base offense. So a base offense of 12 personnel means you've got two tight ends on the field.

[Andy Holloway]

That means you have two wide receivers on the field. That also means that Chris Godwin is not in the slot, more than likely.

[Mike Wright]

So they have.

[Andy Holloway]

This is weird.

[Mike Wright]

They have Rob Gronkowski, they have O.J. howard, Cameron Braid, too.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Being base personnel, though, you know, I think last year the team that led the league was under 40% in 12 personnel. So I think that was the Eagles. It's not. I don't think this means that, you know, 75% of the time they're going to have two tight ends on the field. I just don't think that's realistic in today's NFL.

[Mike Wright]

Here's what I would say, and that's a good point, but one of the question marks around this team is predictability. Jameis Winston's gone. Tom Brady is there. Tom Brady functions in a certain type of offense, and the older Tom Brady gets, there are certain types of schemes and systems that benefit him. So the variability is present for whether Godwin can repeat, whether Evans will repeat. You know, like you said, they're not going to. And Bruce Arians is not an idiot so far. I mean, he's not an idiot. He's not going to take a successful Chris Godman and say, yeah, you know, we're going to move you to a place you're going to be completely unsuccessful. I think we all agree he's a talented wide receiver. You can play on the outside.

[Andy Holloway]

And Jay, according to Sharp Football, Philadelphia was in 12 personnel 52% of the time. They were the.

[Jason Moore]

They were the leader, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, they were the leader.

[Jason Moore]

So. So where was Tampa? Example here is the best in the NFL was, you know, 50% of the time. So I don't think this is some.

[Mike Wright]

People matters a lot though for a player that you're banking at number five or six, a wide receiver, does it not?

[Jason Moore]

No, I don't think it does because I don't think. I think what you just said about Chris Godwin and how he dominated in the slot and Tom Brady and how he utilizes a dominant slot, wide receiver, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, like that, it's just not going to go away. What it does do is it kind of builds up the Gronk getting on the field more or being more important to the offense. I don't think this, I don't. I did not read this news as something that scared me off of Chris Godwin.

[Andy Holloway]

And last year, Tampa bay was in 12 personnel 23% of the time.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Mike Wright]

Interesting. All right. Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith said Derek Henry's workload for the upcoming season depends on how the games go. That's news.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

All workloads depend on how the games go.

[Jason Moore]

Breaking news. We're going to run the ball more.

[Mike Wright]

Present right now, but if he was, I might make fun of him, but I would never do that now.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, never, never talk about how that. That was a stupid piece of news to talk about.

[Mike Wright]

Brooks. I guess, you know, we have said it on the show a lot that if they don't win, Derek Henry's value is not going to match his adp.

[Andy Holloway]

Before we get into the fantasy wild cards want to thank today's sponsor, Omaha Steaks.

[Mike Wright]

Omaha.

[Andy Holloway]

Delivering the world's best steaks and a huge variety of other favorites directly to Dad's door because Father's Day approaching rapidly. Get pops some meat from Omaha Steaks. Look at the variety of Father's Day packages. They include world famous steaks, burgers, franks, sausages, perfect for grilling poultry, pork side dishes, One step family deals. I love Omaha Steaks. When I look in my fridge and I see a dwindling supply of my Omaha Steaks burgers, you get a little panicky. I get a little anxious.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Little bit of anxious. Anxiety inside because they're delicious. I love grilling up my Omaha Steaks burgers. And right now, Omaha Steaks is offering our listeners access to a variety of amazing packages that are perfect to send dad for Father's day. Go to Omaha Steaks.com Enter the code Footballers into the search bar. You'll see all the great options available, many that include free shipping and a free £1 package of their perfectly cured, incredibly thick applewood smoked steak cut bacon. There are many packages available that are perfect for dad. They're all ready to be shipped straight to his door in time for Father's Day. Visit omahasteaks.com type footballers in the search bar to shop for Father's Day today.

[Mike Wright]

All right, let's talk fantasy wild cards. No, I'm saying no brakes, guys. Why are the brakes working? Because I cut the brakes.

[Andy Holloway]

Wild car.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

All right. How do you define a fantasy wild card, Mike?

[Andy Holloway]

I would say fantasy wild card is a player where when you're building out their projection, you realize that they could exceed that by a lot or they could come short by also a lot. Like, the range of outcomes for this player is very hard to narrow down to a. Just a nice middle ground, a nice predictability. Yes.

[Mike Wright]

We just talked about Leonard Fournette on the last episode. Fits that criteria.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he certainly does right now. His predictability, his range of outcome should shrink as time goes on because that's. That's one of the big factors in Leonard Fournette is what exactly are the Jaguars going to do at the running back position? Because they could be a wild card in August. All of a sudden, there's another running back on this team that. But these players that we're talking about right now, their situations are pretty locked in, and it's still hard to see which side of the projection are they really going to hit.

[Mike Wright]

I'll let Jason kick this off. We each selected a couple of players that we're having. You know, we're having some conflicting thoughts about maybe difficult to rank individually. We can surface these guys, discuss them on the show today. Love to hear from the foot clan on twitter @the ffballers. Jason, who's your first fantasy wild card?

[Jason Moore]

My first fantasy wild card is a guy who busted in the NFL from his incredible high pedigree coming in, drafted to be a superstar. And unfortunately, Devonte Parker just wasn't good. And then all of a sudden, five years later, he's great. He finishes the season as the wide receiver seven. And he was. He was better than you remember. I mean, you remember that he had a breakout campaign, but you're talking about a guy who, from week four, remember the first three weeks, this is the Josh Rosen experiment. And the back and forth, they're not sure who the Dolphins are.

[Mike Wright]

My least favorite experiment, just for the record.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm right there with you. But from week four on, that is the majority of the season. Devonte Parker. Do you guys know where he ranked, you know, pretty much after week four. After week four, week four on. Take your guess where devonte Parker ranked at wide receiver.

[Mike Wright]

Number one in my heart.

[Andy Holloway]

Number one in your heart.

[Jason Moore]

Michael Thomas will ensure he is not number one in fantasy, but that's it. He's number two. He was the wide receiver too from week four through week 17. I mean, and here's the deal. He's coming back with another year of experience. Ryan Fitzpatrick is still there. I mean, if you're telling me. Yeah, I know. If you're telling me that a guy who was drafted to be great, who was great for the entire season, he, from that point on he only had one bad game in week 14. That's Michael Thomas in that stretch had two bad games, week 13 and week 17. So Devonte Parker showed that he can be that guy. He has currently the starting quarterback that he did that with. He's going to take another step forward. Except they drafted TUA and Preston Williams was injured, you know, halfway through the season. So Parker's target volume went up. And you have four seasons of Parker stinking. So it's like the range of outcomes on Devontae Parker is very difficult. I left this season wanting Devonte Parker to be someone on my roster coming into 2020. And in this offseason, while stating these guys out, I'm not bullish on devonte Parker. I think there are way too many variables and I believe that changing from Fitzpatrick to TUA will be devastating for devonte Parker's fantasy value. I don't think Parker has gotten to the stage where whoever is quarterback, he's going to make good enough. But I mean, I mean, we know his range of outcome, right? I mean, he was the wide receiver seven on the season. And that was while the first three weeks he basically wasn't there. Wide receiver two. After that he's, he's, he is the definition of a wild card.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's tough. And this is one of those situations where I kind of applaud the draft community for regulating the value of Devonte Parker. I think right now he's the wide receiver 22 off the board, fifth round pick. He's our consensus 22. So it's the exact kind of spot that he belongs right now. With those variables in place, I think Miami is a much better team. I think they've got a much improved defense. I think their running game might exist this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, having a running game that does exist would be good as opposed to the Bellage experience. I mean, you have both Howard and Breeder there. So those are some things that were not in place last year. I agree. He's a wild card because you, you've had seasons where players have done this and, and that emergence, it persists. And you've had players that are a flash in the pan and disappear. I mean, sure, it's difficult.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure. I will jump in here. The first player I want to highlight, running back for the Baltimore Ravens, Mark Ingram, who was a top 10 running back last year, but he did so on a volume that seems like it just. That can't possibly happen again. But it can. Like when I'm looking at Devonte Parker and I'm saying, okay, is top 10, is it realistic? Sure, it could happen, but I just don't think it's a realistic outcome for this year with all the variables with that team. There's, there aren't variables for the Baltimore Ravens. In fact, their defense has gotten, gotten better. If they want to just fully commit to the ground game and deep and the defensive side of the ball, they could do it. Last year, Ingram had over a thousand yards on the ground, just over 200 carries, but 10 rushing touchdowns. And this is in 15 games. He got hurt at the very end of the season. On top of that, he had five receiving touchdowns on 29 targets. That's, that is insanity. You have the, but you have all the regression that seems to be coming for the Baltimore Ravens offense. Last year, the Ravens scored 531 points. Over the last five years, we see on average about 1.2 teams a year scoring over 500 points and we haven't seen a repeat in the last five years. Will the Ravens be the team that does? Will they, will they be able to not have a letdown after the success of last year? And now they drafted J.K. dobbins. They have who?

[Mike Wright]

The fantasy community is absolutely in love with the destination situation and as am I.

[Andy Holloway]

But, and that's one of those variables of like, did they spend a day to pick on J.K. dobbins to get him involved right away, or is it still going to be primarily Mark Ingram? And then on the, on the fact that Mark Eagle was very old for a running back. He didn't look like it last year. He was, he was unbelievably elusive. But like, eventually these guys get, get too old to be playing the running back position at that level. So I just, I don't know what to do with Mark Ingram and I don't think fantasy players do as well right now. In best ball draft, he's being taken as the the RB28 despite finishing as a top 10 running back.

[Mike Wright]

That's probably too low for this year. What's crazy to me is that when I think of Baltimore's efficiency, their offense, it brings me back to the Saints running game that once had Mark Ingram in it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Where Mark Ingram was underrated and undervalued year in and year out because he partially shared a backfield. But that backfield was perennially efficient.

[Andy Holloway]

And he was dominant.

[Jason Moore]

He was perennially efficient. He, year after year after year after year outperforms his adp. He'll do it again this year if he's the running back 28 in ADP. But you're still limiting the upside of Dobbins, the timeshare, the regression. So yeah, I totally get this one. Mark Ingram is a guy that when I think about the players I really want on my team, he doesn't. He's not there. But then it's like, yeah, I don't want a guy who's always doing very good on a really high powered offense. Why, that's dumb.

[Mike Wright]

I would say that if he suffers an injury this year, they have the personnel to make a return to like a high workload, a lower probability. Does that make sense where like if he goes down and Dobbins comes in and further establishes himself and you have the other pieces in place, maybe that's the pathway for Ingrid. But you don't predict. You don't base your projection right. For a player that is that valuable on maybe he'll get injured and not come back.

[Andy Holloway]

Yep. It's tough. Marketing room is tough.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So he is certainly a wild card and he feels right now to me like a player that I probably have too low.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Because of the fact that like you said, I mean, the Ravens are probably not going to have the offensive season they had last year. It just doesn't matter who you are. You just don't generally run it back.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I am. Right now I have Mark Ingram at 22 as of the time of this recording. And I'm looking at it going, man, that is too low. It's just too low. I got to go look at his projection.

[Mike Wright]

Preaching to yourself.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Sometimes. Look, sometimes I use the show as a way. I'm not actually talking to anybody. I'm talking into my reflection in my laptop here.

[Mike Wright]

Sometimes it needs. That's the whole point of this episode, is to kind of walk through these and see how we feel. Julian Edelman is the player I'm going to bring up. Nice he loses Brady. We have no knowledge or history of Stidham having success in the NFL. Could be a completely run dependent team with a great defense. He's 34 years old and we've talked about his injury history, and yet he's coming off 100 catches, 1100 yards, six touchdowns. And we bring up time and again like it doesn't matter how good or bad your team is, if you're the guy at the wide receiver position, there's value there. I started to think about, remember Terrell Pryor's kind of banner year?

[Andy Holloway]

That's when he was Terrell Pryor.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. One year in Cleveland.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you, Jason.

[Mike Wright]

At one year in Cleveland on a bad team. But he was the player.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

So I wonder if, because we have Julian Edelman At 34 in our consensus rankings. Mike, you're the highest, not surprisingly, at 30, but that's not very high.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

And then. And his ADP is at 35. He's an 8th round pick. Is there any doubt that Julian Edelman is the number one target for New England?

[Andy Holloway]

No, not for me.

[Mike Wright]

So you have all those variables that you know that the wheels could come off, but when you're coming off 111 hundred and six the.

[Andy Holloway]

And also just to highlight, you know, because Julian Edelman, the same is. The same argument can be made about Mark hearing. But like Edelman is just. He's older. You realize that was the most receiving yards that he has ever had in a season last year.

[Mike Wright]

Like that's, that's where the blinders, the age blinders can come on.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

So I think part of what makes me resist Edelman is ceiling because. Okay, yes, he had a great year last year. So he comes back with Stidham and what does he give you? If he gives you 80 for 803, are you happy?

[Andy Holloway]

Probably not. Or what's his ADP? Where is he at right now?

[Mike Wright]

Eighth round.

[Jason Moore]

You're definitely not happy. If he gives you 80 for 803.

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe in a PPR league. Just knowing that that would be a consistent performer for my team.

[Mike Wright]

So 100 receptions last year. If I said over under 85, I.

[Jason Moore]

Would take the under. I've got him at 78 for 837 yards and four touchdowns and that puts him at my wide receiver 41.

[Mike Wright]

I just don't believe maybe this is a. This sounds like a wild card discussion that's leading towards.

[Andy Holloway]

I have. I'll take the over on that one.

[Mike Wright]

You would take the over on 85? Interesting. All right, well, I was thinking Maybe. I mean, it's been a little while since you guys put one on the board. Do you guys want to go head to head on 85 receptions?

[Andy Holloway]

How many receptions do you have him for, Jay?

[Jason Moore]

I have him for 78 receptions, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, 85 works.

[Mike Wright]

You want it, Jay?

[Jason Moore]

Sure. But this carries with it. No, no injury qualification here because he usually. I mean, 12 games two years ago, nine games four years ago, 14. You know, he misses time.

[Mike Wright]

And so you're the man taking the under. Why are you giving another term?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I'm saying I don't want it to be. If he misses games, he's out of it because he was on a pace to have more than 85.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, so he's saying that no matter what happens, you're the under. If it gets injured, it still counts. Mike, you comfortable?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's fine.

[Jason Moore]

Water bat.

[Mike Wright]

All right, Jason, give me another wild card. Oh, this one's Julian Edelman's missing. Edmonds missing this man.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. This is the reason I'm taking the under is because Tom Brady is no longer throwing him the ball. But when it comes to Tom Brady, what a wild card. We already talked earlier. 12 personnel. Is it. Are they. Are they going to move away from what they did last year with Jameis Winston? I mean, obviously it's a. It's a whole new quarterback. Are they going to use Bruce Aria system? Are they going to use Tom Brady system? Tom Brady is old, but now you're telling me that you give the greatest quarterback of all time a gun slinging offense. He wants the challenge. He. His goal is to leave the Patriots, leave Bill Belichick, and show that he is the reason for their success. He wants to take Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl. If you look at the Vegas odds, they're pretty high up there in, you know, as far as finishing in the running for a Super Bowl. He has Chris Godwin, he has Mike Evans, he has Gronkowski, he's got O.J. howard. The weapons are the best he's had in forever. And this is an offense now that is going to be the piece of this team that wins. So I could see. I mean, when I finished stating out Tom Brady in the Ultimate Draft Kit, my goodness, I was. I was scared of my ranking. I think I had him at five or six, and I have moved him down a little bit to just be a little bit more realistic with the risk involved. But that's. That's the other side. You can't ignore the fact that he's changing teams. He's Changing players completely has no rapport with anyone outside of Gronk. He is 400 years old and that's the real issue here, is that. Let me read you.

[Mike Wright]

Those aren't plant years though. Jason. He's 26. In plant years.

[Jason Moore]

In plant years, yes. That's good. He is the plant man. Here's some stats for you. 4659 passing yards, 5477 passing yards. 4727 passing yards. Those are good. Those are good numbers, right? Great. Everything is great.

[Andy Holloway]

Those are very good.

[Jason Moore]

3598 passing.

[Andy Holloway]

Not as good, not as low.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, let me lower number. Let me try some touchdowns. 37 touchdowns. Would you like that? Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that'd be great.

[Jason Moore]

How about. How about 55?

[Andy Holloway]

I would like that very much.

[Jason Moore]

How about 39?

[Andy Holloway]

Also excellent.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, those are great. How about 14? You want 14?

[Mike Wright]

Lower. That's lower.

[Jason Moore]

No. Okay, final, final stat here. Final stat. Let's look at the interceptions. How about 11? That's a low number. That's fair. How about 10? Fair.

[Andy Holloway]

That's good.

[Jason Moore]

15, whatever. How about. Okay, last number 27. This is what happened to Peyton Manning when the wheels fell off. And I am not reading you his shortened season games. I'm saying the 16 game pace of Peyton Manning that final year was 3,500 yards, 14 touchdowns and 27 interceptions. And that was right after incredible excellence, you know, otherworldly first ballot hall of fame performance. So when that season, when the end comes for Tom Brady, it will, it will not be kind. It will come with Thor's hammer and it will destroy Tom Brady's fantasy value. So all of that's baked in. But I look at a Bruce Arian's led offense, a Tom Brady great quarterback with all these weapons and I am banking on a high performance. I drafted him. We were in a fantasy cares eliminator that's going on right now. And I actually through that draft drafted the Tom Brady Gronkowski stack. So you know, and that, that's my action. I, you know, when you're talking about these wild cards, you got to make your bet. I am betting on Tom Brady. I believe it's going to happen. But these Peyton Manning stats, Brett Favre.

[Mike Wright]

Had those stats too. I mean Brett Favre went from a 4233 touchdown, seven interception season to in 13 games, 250011 with 19 interceptions. So the wheels fell off quickly for him too.

[Jason Moore]

It's just predicting the year and I do not predict it to be this year. But my goodness if you're wrong on this bet, you're not going to be like, well, he was. Okay. It's going to be bad.

[Mike Wright]

I'm curious of what people will do with a hot start, too. I wonder if that's like the poison for a fantasy. If he starts hot in the first couple weeks and you buy into what you saw in those couple games, you could be real trapped into him.

[Andy Holloway]

You're curious, you know what the answer will be.

[Mike Wright]

The Plant man reigns.

[Andy Holloway]

The hot start is the poison for any player.

[Mike Wright]

You're right.

[Andy Holloway]

As soon as I see week one and week two, I have. I have ripped my pants off and I'm running down the streets declaring my victory because this player is a success.

[Mike Wright]

Weeks one and two are very trepidatious as a fantasy.

[Andy Holloway]

They get us all, man.

[Mike Wright]

As a fantasy analyst, too.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah. Sammy Watkins last year. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

I had to decide whether to just take it on the chin up. I'm super wrong about Sammy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

It didn't feel good.

[Andy Holloway]

No, it'll. It'll happen.

[Mike Wright]

All right, Mike, you've got one more. I've got one more.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. I'm going to talk about DK Metcalf, wide receiver from the Seattle Seahawks, because what is he going to be? He feels like a player.

[Jason Moore]

What.

[Andy Holloway]

And right now, in best ball, he's going as the wide receiver 21. Last year, he finished as the wide receiver 32 is. What could DK Metcalf become? Because he's. He is a super. He's a superhero of a man. But Tyler Lockett is there. Last year, DK Metcalf, 900 yards, seven touchdowns on an. On 100 targets, 58 receptions. This was also the most passing yards by Russell Wilson in the last three years. And we've. We've also been here before where the. The young stud, we look. We look to him and project that he's going to overtake the veteran, which it was. Tyler Lockett, is he going to surpass Doug Baldwin and be the number one wide receiver for Seattle? Time after time we met, made that bet, or some people made that bet and they were wrong every single time. Tyler Lockett's very, very good. Can DK Metcalf take that jump from 900 yards and seven and really break out? I went and I looked at, like, the combination of yards for Russell Wilson's top two targets, and it's been very similar, the actual percentage of the production. So last year, DK and Lockett, they were 48% of Russell Wilson's yardage in 2018. The top two targets, 46%, 43%, 49%. Like, this is what happens where two guys will soak up nearly 50% of the of Russell Wilson's yards. But then there's going to be a lot of players on that team who end up with 300 yards, 400 yards, because Russell Wilson's really good at finding the open player. So why I'm bringing that up is how does DK Metcalf make the jump into superstardom? But seeing what he's been able to do on the field as a rookie, he could. Like if, if you, if you bet wrong on DK Metcalf, you could be very, very wrong. He can be a top 15 guy, but it's, it's hard to project that path when Tyler Lockett is still on the team.

[Mike Wright]

I feel like Metcalf, the challenge with him is he doesn't need to produce more than he did last year for this team to be great. Sure, they don't need him to do more than catch 60 passes for 900 to 1,000 yards, be a goal line presence, catch six or seven touchdowns. They're not building an offense around DK Metcalf. That offense is Russell Wilson's the running game and all those pieces that you talked about. Because the best quarterbacks and Brady did this for years, they could distribute the ball to 15 players over the course of a season that are relevant and catch touchdowns. So the, that is the risk factor because anytime a player comes into year two after a great rookie season, we all get big eyes, we all get excited about the potential. And he has it. He's got the potential. But does it necessitate this team turning the keys over to Russell in the passing game for him to meet it?

[Andy Holloway]

And it's like those, it's touchdowns where I agree with you. I don't see a way that DK Metcalf jumps from 900 yards up to like 1200, 1300 yards. I just don't see that happening. But could DK Metcalf have one of those insane Doug Baldwin touchdown years where I think Baldwin had what, 14 touchdowns in one year? It could happen. Like he's the type of player that it, that, that could happen with. So I just. His range of outcomes to me are extreme both ways.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm a Tyler Lockett believer. So I think that's going to be what gets in the way of DK Metcalf. Tyler Lockett, all he did the last two years was each of them be a top 15 fantasy wide receiver. And the clear number one target. I think there's, you know, there's not a reason to move away from that. And so I'm more bullish on Tyler Lockett this season.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And in. In another offense or another offensive system, you don't have to be here picking and choosing between the two. Right. You don't have to, like, say Tyler Lockett's no good in order to make DK Metcalf great, but you feel like you have to in Seattle with the passing volume.

[Andy Holloway]

But what I'm saying is right now, basketball, wide receiver 21, can. Will he even hit wide receiver 21?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I don't know. I don't know. Probably not the flag plant that I want this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

But I wish him the best.

[Jason Moore]

Good luck. Good luck, DK. Also, Mike, you were correct. Baldwin had 14 touchdowns in a season.

[Andy Holloway]

In your face.

[Mike Wright]

How's that feel, Jay?

[Jason Moore]

Well, I said it, so it's in my own face. I'm fine.

[Mike Wright]

Jared Cook is the final wild card I want to mention. Is this Jared Cook? Is this Jared Kyuk? I don't know. And he has, if you wanted to say, give me a fancy wild card over the last, like, seven years, Jared Cook should be making that list.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

We've had high expectations. We've had those high expectations not met. We've had great quarterback situations for Jared Cook before where those situations or those expectations were not met. Last year, 43 catches. That's it. 43 receptions, but nine touchdowns. And much like some of the other wild cards we've talked about, even Mark Ingram, the efficiency, the touchdown numbers, could that happen again? No question it could happen again. With Drew Brees in New Orleans, how will Emmanuel Sanders fit into that offense? How will the. Will this team. Will the pendulum swing back to the rushing touchdowns that we saw from two years ago? Or will it be more like last year, where they kind of disappeared, which affected Alvin Camara and affected, you know, the rushing touchdown totals. But it really helped players like Jared Cook. So Jared Cook, to me, feels like the riskiest. And you might have them as a Tier 2 tight end or Tier 3, depending on where you have them ranked or how you think of him, but just 43 receptions last year. Let that settle in. You're not getting PPR value out of Jared Cook. Sure, he had games where he caught the ball one time. It just happened to be a touchdown. So from a wild card perspective, I have him the highest of the three of us. I like Jared Cook. I like the offense and I like the predictability of it, but it still terrifies me a little bit because he's the kind of player that can be drafted at, you know, with one expectation. You lock him into your tight end slot and then you feel trapped, you feel paralyzed to strain the tight end position because you invested draft capital in Jared Cook and he's not giving you what you wanted.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. Like last year, where if you, if you drafted O.J. howard last year.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, gosh.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, how many, how many weeks were you just banging your head up against the wall saying, a lot of weeks. He's OJ Howard, he's a first round.

[Mike Wright]

Pick all of the weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I get what you're saying.

[Mike Wright]

That's such a terrible but good comp for this situation.

[Andy Holloway]

But at the same time, you have possibly the most accurate quarterback in the history of the NFL and he's, he's a good player.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, he finished number five at the position two years ago. So those things stand out to me. When you have a low reception total at tight end, I get a little, I get a little scared to invest.

[Andy Holloway]

A higher draft pick, to invest the.

[Mike Wright]

Higher draft pick and lock him into the position.

[Jason Moore]

Would you feel better if he had, say 56 receptions versus 43 receptions? Would that change your outlook on him being a very touchdown only tight end.

[Mike Wright]

If you had him around 55 to 60?

[Jason Moore]

So if you look at last year's game logs, remember projection? Well, no, that was, that was last year. What happened? Obviously, Drew Brees comes in and gets injured and then Teddy takes over. Drew Brees comes back in week eight, Cook was not there yet. When Cook gets back in Week 10, Game 9 and plays through the rest of the season, they were on a 56 reception, 76 target pace, which would have been 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns. Granted, there's a lot of changing parts here. Alvin Camara's health, Emmanuel Sanders added to the team. So I agree this is a wild card. But Jared Kyuk was very good during the last part of that season.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he was, he was outstanding and he was consistent. I mean, you look at his week to week consistency chart in the UDK and he was one of the more consistent tight ends at the position. I have him down for 50 receptions on the dot this year, so, you know, I. Do you think he's going to pull down another nine touchdowns?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't.

[Mike Wright]

That's a tough bet. That's a tough bet.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

But he's not very much different than what was the total receptions for. I'm trying to remember for Mark Andrews. I mean, Mark Andrews last year was at 64. Okay, so significantly higher in 15 games.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

But any other thoughts on Jared Cook?

[Jason Moore]

I think you laid him out well.

[Mike Wright]

All right. I think we're going to close this thing down. I want to thank Pristine auction, sponsor of today's show, Le'Veon Bell. Signed full size pylon. Did you hear that? A signed.

[Andy Holloway]

Wait, a pylon.

[Mike Wright]

Pylon.

[Jason Moore]

That's cool.

[Mike Wright]

How much do you have to pay for a signed pylon?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I hope it's somewhere between $50 and $60.

[Mike Wright]

$55.28. Hundreds of interesting cool sports memorabilia [e-mail] use the code BALLERS get a $10 credit. That'll do it for us. It's been fun. These are some fun players to talk about.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I like talking about the wild cards. We'll see in a couple days. Foot Clan, be safe. Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening. Listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers and Foot Clan.

[Mike Wright]

Do not forget, Omaha Steaks will deliver the world's best steaks and a huge variety of other favorites directly to your dad's door in time for Father's Day. Omaha Steaks delivers guaranteed quality and safety with every order. So send Dad a gift of food he'll love this year. Make Father's Day simple this year and send dad the gift he really wants. Mike, that's meat he really wants.

[Andy Holloway]

I want meat.

[Mike Wright]

Perfectly aged Omaha Steaks get free shipping and free steak cut bacon with select packages. Visit Omaha Steaks.com and type footballers in the search bar to see their variety of amazing packages.