Ice & Fire Picks for 2020 + Absolutely No Guff - Fantasy Football Podcast

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "Ice & Fire Picks for 2020 + Absolutely No Guff"

Release Date: August 3, 2020
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

---

1. Introduction

The episode kicks off with a compelling promotional message from Mike Wright (00:01), likening wise fantasy football strategies to building on solid foundations, urging listeners to utilize the Fantasy Footballers' Ultimate Draft Kit for a successful season. Following this, the hosts—Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright—welcome listeners back to the show, noting the hectic August timeframe (01:05-02:42).

2. Listener League Announcement

At 03:15, Jason Moore introduces an exciting opportunity for listeners: the Listener League. This competitive league is open for one week only, encouraging participants to submit creative, guff-free applications via email at [e-mail]. Andy emphasizes the need for originality, stating, “Don’t tell us how good you are at fantasy football. No trophy cases, no guff. Just something special” (04:09).

Notable Quote:
Andy Holloway (03:20): “Make a funny video or a song or something we've never seen. I mean, the options are truly.”

3. News Highlights

The hosts transition into the latest fantasy news (10:35), touching on several key updates:

• LaShawn McCoy's Signing: LaShawn McCoy joins the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a one-year, $1 million contract (11:12). Mike discusses the potential impact on Ronald Jones, highlighting concerns about McCoy’s role overshadowing Jones (12:07).

• Henry Ruggs Claimed Off PUP: Henry Ruggs reaches the active roster for the Las Vegas Raiders, raising questions about his readiness (14:00).

• Jarvis Landry's Status: Jarvis Landry’s timeline for returning to play is scrutinized, with Jason expressing cautious optimism about Odell Beckham Jr.'s potential bounce back (14:37).

• Ty Hilton's Injury: Ty Hilton's recurring hamstring issues pose a red flag for fantasy managers, considering his inconsistent performance last season (16:03).

Notable Quote:
Jason Moore (14:37): “I don’t think he's ready to go.”

4. Ice & Fire Picks Segment

This segment delves into potential busts (Ice) and breakout prospects (Fire) for the upcoming fantasy season.

a. Ice Picks

1. Austin Hooper (19:15)

   • Jason labels Austin Hooper as a "fool's gold" pick, critiquing his fantasy value despite a strong start last season (20:10). Hooper’s high target volume was attributed more to the Falcons' offense than his own prowess.

   Notable Quote:
   Jason Moore (20:39): “It's fool's gold.”

2. Todd Gurley (25:22)

   • Mike discusses Todd Gurley’s decline due to offensive line issues and injury concerns, making him a high-risk, low-reward option (27:00).

   Notable Quote:
   Mike Wright (27:42): “He could be limping into a great situation.”

3. Tyler Higby vs. Gerald Everett (33:19)

   • The debate centers on Tyler Higby’s impressive five-game stretch versus Gerald Everett’s consistent performance. While Higby showcased potential, Everett’s return to the field suggests greater reliability, relegating Higby to a lower priority in drafts.

   Notable Quote:
   Andy Holloway (34:29): “I just don't see Higby as a featured option week in and week out.”

b. Fire Picks

1. Miles Sanders (42:23)

   • Jason champions Miles Sanders as a top fire pick, citing coach Frank Reich’s commitment to giving Sanders a full workload. Sanders' dual-threat capability as a runner and receiver underscores his high ceiling.

   Notable Quote:
   Jason Moore (46:54): “He’s being built up as the look, there’s no doubt he is 100% a workhorse back.”

2. Odell Beckham Jr. (49:47)

   • Despite last season’s struggles, the hosts are optimistic about Beckham’s return to form. They credit improved offensive line protection and health as key factors that could rejuvenate his fantasy value.

   Notable Quote:
   Jason Moore (55:38): “If he’s healthy this year, the Oto Beckham should at least return ADP value with upside of being the number one guy.”

3. A.J. Green (56:17)

   • A.J. Green is highlighted as a high-upside, albeit fragile, option. His consistent performance, when healthy, makes him a worthwhile late-round gamble for fantasy managers seeking top-tier wide receiver output.

   Notable Quote:
   Andy Holloway (56:29): “AJ Green would have had a seven straight years.”

5. Conclusions and Promotions

Wrapping up, the hosts remind listeners about their Ultimate Draft Kit and upcoming Mock Draft Show (17:15). They also promote a partnership with Pristine Auction, offering $10 off first purchases with code PW2020 and highlighting $100,000 in giveaways (61:20).

Notable Quote:
Andy Holloway (61:32): “Click that subscribe button. Whether it's Apple podcasts, Google Podcast, Spotify. Click that subscribe button. Wait, it's completely free.”

---

Final Thoughts

This episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast provides listeners with valuable insights into potential busts and breakout players for the 2020 season. The hosts maintain their signature "no guff" approach, ensuring recommendations are backed by solid analysis rather than hype. From dissecting Austin Hooper's inflated draft stock to championing Miles Sanders' workload under new coaching, the Fantasy Footballers deliver a comprehensive guide to navigating the fantasy landscape. Additionally, the promotional segments for the Listener League and Ultimate Draft Kit offer listeners practical tools to enhance their fantasy experience.

---

For more detailed analysis and continuous updates, consider subscribing to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast on your preferred platform and visit ultimateDraftKit.com for exclusive resources.

Transcript

[Mike Wright]

It's been said that the foolish man built his house upon the sand and the wise man built his house upon the rock. Well, the wise fantasy football player builds their house upon the ultimate draft kit from the Fantasy Footballers. Full projections, video profiles, tier breakdowns, risk ratings. While you watch other teams comically topple over like a clown with poor balance, you're found for an incredible season. Will be solidified. You are the mighty redwood. Your opponents are one ply toilet paper. You are iron alloyed with carbon. Your opponents are a soggy leaf of lettuce. Go to www.ultimatedraftkit.com and get out of the sand today.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in. Feels a little different, doesn't it?

[Unknown]

I'm supposed to be sleeping.

[Andy Holloway]

No. Is that why. That's why I feel. I was saying it felt a little different because like the season, it's August. The season comes away five days a week. Yours is more related to your.

[Unknown]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Is that circadian rhythms? Is that your sleep cycle look?

[Unknown]

That sounds great.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know. Monday, August 3rd.

[Unknown]

Those are those really loud bugs in my trees right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Cicadas. Yeah. The rhythms of the bugs. That's a good start. Welcome into the podcast. Mike the Fantasy Hitman Wright, Jason Moore. I'm Andy Holloway and we are the Fantasy Footballers. And we are now and into eternity five days a week. Very exciting. We have the greatest show of all time today. A very special drop returns and we have news to get into. A great spectacular. Quick question to talk about, but the big announcement, the thing that we really got to get out there, that people, they wait all year long for it. And Jared Goff's here with an announcement.

[Jason Moore]

Come on, come on. Hear ye, hear ye.

[Andy Holloway]

The Listener League. We are taking applications for one week, one week only entries for the Listener League. And here is how you enter. And I'm saying this on the show, which means if you email and say, how do you enter? You have disqualified yourself from entering because this is competitive and we don't take no. No guff. Right? No guff, no fluff, no guff, no coconut.

[Jason Moore]

That's what we always say.

[Andy Holloway]

No guff. That's what I define as email.

[Unknown]

See, we're not taking any guff here.

[Andy Holloway]

See, and now I'm burying the application Listener league@fantasy footballers.com Speak for a moment about what we're looking for.

[Jason Moore]

We are looking for someone who is fun, awesome and has done something that will impress us with no guff and that's that's probably the most important part. Here's what we're not looking for an email where you write a paragraph saying why you're good at fantasy football or why you love the show or whatever. We have so many entries that are coming in and, you know, make. Make a.

[Andy Holloway]

We don't like to read.

[Jason Moore]

Make a funny video.

[Unknown]

Yeah, exactly.

[Andy Holloway]

Not a lot.

[Jason Moore]

You know, make a funny video or a song or something we've never seen. I mean, the options are truly.

[Andy Holloway]

We generally say, impress us.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Just impress us.

[Andy Holloway]

Surprise us. Impress us. Don't tell us how good you are at fantasy football. No trophy cases, no guff. Just something special. And we have to remind the listeners out there, we've got a couple people in already.

[Jason Moore]

That's right.

[Andy Holloway]

Because we had some ultimate draft kit giveaways. We also had the winner of the Meglable.

[Unknown]

Winner.

[Andy Holloway]

The Meglable.

[Jason Moore]

And the three of us.

[Andy Holloway]

Correct. First, second and third place every year, right?

[Jason Moore]

That's right.

[Andy Holloway]

And yes, we're Accepting entries for one week Listener League at fantasy footballers.com Piece of show trivia. We actually met Brooks, our fearless producer, through a listener league entry. So you can be like Brooks and I want to say probably 0% guff on that side of it.

[Jason Moore]

There was no guff. I mean, it was a really guffless video.

[Unknown]

Oh, yes.

[Jason Moore]

And I remember us huddling around and talking about, there's no guff here at all. Look for guff.

[Unknown]

I went over it like the Zapruder film, looking for guff.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, we were all waiting for Guffman, but it didn't come. Oh.

[Unknown]

Oh, that was. No, that's great.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you.

[Unknown]

That is great.

[Jason Moore]

I was happy with that. And Brian Catron, the giant loser who does some video work also through the listener league.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Well, because we did, we will get guff out there to them. Like, we give Brooks a lot of guff. We give Ketcher and a lot of guff. But we did, you know, just impress us. And you can be a part of the official Fantasy Footballers listener league this year. 2020. It'll be fun. Twitter @The FFballers if you want to follow us on socials. Instagram.com fantasy footballers, YouTube.com the fantasy footballers. We had so much fun with the live streams last week. I have no doubt there will be more this year than ever before. That was almost too easy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we didn't. We didn't set up these fancy home studios for nothing. We're gonna get our use out of them this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. Had nothing to do with current events at all. It was about live streams. Listen, quick question of the day. Which Steelers player are you most likely to draft? So this is a. What looks to be a team ADP pick them. Quick question. Maybe we'll do some other teams is what I'm thinking.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's. That's not a bad idea. This question made me realize how anti Steelers I am in fantasy football this year. Just, you know, I didn't think I was. Can I.

[Andy Holloway]

Can I read the ADPs out and then you can make a decision?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Big Ben in the 11th round. James Conner, the top of the fourth juju the back of the third, Deontay Johnson, 10th round, Eric Ebron, 13th round, Chase Claypool and James Washington, both undrafted. Who are you most likely to draft? For me, I think it's the 10th round. Deontay Johnson shot.

[Jason Moore]

Sure you want upside. There are a lot of metrics that show he was great. If the offense gets back on track. We've seen Big Ben be able to support a wide receiver too. Doesn't cost you anything. 10th rounder. That's where you're looking for upside. I don't mind.

[Unknown]

Yeah, it could be the one.

[Jason Moore]

I don't. Yeah, sure. He definitely. I don't, I don't mind that pick. You look at the value difference between a third round juju and you're saying could Deontay could be the one. I don't see it that way. Sure, I probably won't draft him, but certainly a worthy pick. The true answer is probably Big Ben because late round quarterbacks, when you're playing, you know, dancing with the devil, seeing how long you could wait and then everyone's gone. I'm still like, Big Ben's there. I'm fine with that.

[Unknown]

And he could be top three. He's done it before.

[Jason Moore]

But as far as, you know, I think kind of the spirit of the question of, you know, what player do I do I really look at in a draft right now, it's James Conner. I don't love a fourth round value. You know, he's alongside other players that I think it's very difficult to draft him. But I'm warming on him more and more in the sense that all he's done when he's been on the field is be not good for fantasy, but great for fantasy. The injury concerns are real. He was never able to stay on the field last season. But you know, we've had plenty of examples of guys who go through rough injury stretches and we just put that label on them. And then they're healthy and then they're not. You know, Frank Gore, once upon a time was a huge injury risk.

[Unknown]

That one's insane.

[Jason Moore]

It is the beginning of his.

[Unknown]

And he was, he was injury prone.

[Jason Moore]

You couldn't, you couldn't talk about Frank Gore without talking about, well, you're not going to get 16. And then he became the iron man.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And Connor, like you said, when he's on the field, he's been great. They don't have a financial commitment to him long term and they don't have, you know, there's been plenty of examples of players staying injury prone, so. But the cost isn't so bad. 403. I mean, if he's on the field, he's so much better than the other options that they have right now. Mike, what do you think?

[Jason Moore]

Rounder last year.

[Unknown]

Yes. Yeah, he, I mean, he was like.

[Andy Holloway]

A top eight pick.

[Unknown]

And if you're looking at running backs, you're taking in the fourth of like, if this player hits their ceiling, you know, or I should say the probability of them hitting a ceiling. And being a top 12 runner, I would put the odds on James Connor. The guy's going there. For me though, it is. It's probably Deontay Johnson of what, what he could become. He was pretty solid. I'm not, I'm not nearly as in as, you know, like, Twitter loves Deontay Johnson. Like he's been an off season hero and I see it. I'm not as sure as everybody else is because James Washington was still, was, was still pretty productive as well with, with the situation that they were given. So. But I'm loading. I'm getting the running backs early. It would be a weird situation for me to grab Connor.

[Andy Holloway]

People being on board with Deontay Johnson is super annoying because it makes you. Because, I mean, it's good. But then when like fantasy Twitter likes a guy, all of a sudden even my Mike Wright contrarian genes come active. That's like, well, I don't want to be part of the, the mob that loves, you know, Deontay Johnson. But independent of all of that, like I. His ADP is still the 10th round.

[Unknown]

That's why I had to get in on Jarwin early.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Unknown]

Because the mob is forming.

[Andy Holloway]

Because I didn't feel.

[Unknown]

There are literally dozens of people.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Unknown]

Behind me right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Which, I mean, that's a lot. A lot of people. All right, let's get into the news.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, first bit of news is I Bought Jason a present.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, my Good. This.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm gonna show it to the camera here. It's a very, very. Where am I looking? Okay. There it is. It's a beautiful, spectacular, very, very red.

[Jason Moore]

It is very Ronald Jones shirt.

[Andy Holloway]

So welcome to the party.

[Jason Moore]

I'll have to wear this soon now. Of course, when you bought this, you didn't know the massive news. Oh, that he's not. I mean, he's not the vet anymore. He's not the.

[Andy Holloway]

Something happened.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, the slippery fish. Remember. Remember that?

[Unknown]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

LaShawn McCoy has signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I had to get you that shirt as fast as I possibly could. One year, $1 million contract.

[Unknown]

No money.

[Andy Holloway]

No money. I. I think people react completely differently to this news. More than. More people than I expected. Reacted with great trepidation and fear for Ronald Jones and Keisha and Vaughn, almost like they did last year when he arrived in Kansas City for Damian Williams and company. I just don't know how much LaShawn McCoy really has left. If you look at the numbers, what he actually did on the field in the limited time he had last year, he was actually good.

[Unknown]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

But, you know, Kansas City, different story. I just don't know how much I'm making of this. How are you applying it to the Ronald Jones projections?

[Unknown]

It's for me. I didn't move Ronald Jones. Ronald Jones. Ronald Jones down at all. But it's at least a red flag that, like where Jones seemed really secure as a great pick at his adp, you at least have to go. Well, it is in the realm of possibilities here that LaShawn McCoy is on the field more than you think. Bruce Arians loves veterans. Loves veterans. This isn't changing my outlook, though greatly at this moment for Jones or Vaughn. I still like drafting both of those guys for what they could become in the system.

[Andy Holloway]

It's a veteran. It's a veteran team. Right, Right. So, like, you know, Tom Brady likes experienced players around him. Tom Brady takes a couple of hits. Ronald Jones is going to be off the field. Having a player like Shady, that would be the, you know, Rob Gronkowski coming back.

[Unknown]

Exactly.

[Andy Holloway]

That. That would be the concern for me.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. The nice thing when I. When I plugged in LaShawn McCoy into this offense and took a look at where I think he fits. The nice thing, as far as him not affecting Ronald Jones that much, is Daria Goombawale. That's the player I think he's replacing because he's not good at all. And he was on the field Over a quarter of the snaps every single game last. I mean, he was involved. He was their pass catching specialist, if you will. And now you, you have someone in here that's very experienced, can do more in that role. So I think that it will be a three man race and it was last year as well. But Dare is the one that will lose out the most.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And you know, for many of these situations, it's a camp watch. I mean, just see who's taking reps once they're on the field and whether LaShawn McCoy stays around, whether Keisha Vaughn gets opportunities or not. I mean, Arians loves veterans.

[Unknown]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Kind of doesn't like rookies, so. Something to watch. Henry Rugg says he's fully recovered from the thigh injury. Number one wide receiver off the board in the NFL draft. Oakland Raider.

[Unknown]

Henry Ruggs, Las Vegas Raiders.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, my gosh.

[Unknown]

Oh, preseason form, Andy.

[Jason Moore]

Wow.

[Unknown]

Goodness gracious.

[Jason Moore]

We don't take that guff around here, man.

[Andy Holloway]

That was so the amount of guff I thought this show had 0% guff. It's got like 20% now. Jarvis Landry on the active pup list. Jason, you've talked quite a bit about whether or not, you know, Jarvis is going to be ready to go to start the season. So far, not ready to go.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, his timeline says he should be okay by the. I mean, nobody expected him to be good now, but the expectation is that he will be good by week one. But that's usually when I'm, you know, over the last couple years. Don't buy the injury diploma. If someone is struggling to be there by week one. It's not this magical pill that's like the, you know, well, I wasn't okay, but there's a game you went from zero to 100 totally fine. Yeah. Which I think is good news for the Odell Beckham owners out there and the health and the hopeful bounce back season. I think Odell's going to bounce back this season.

[Andy Holloway]

I would rather have Jarvis Landry on the field for Odell Beckham's bounce back opportunities personally.

[Jason Moore]

Really?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Because of coverage.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Because Baker Mayfield has shown that when he has to force the ball into a location, it has not produced good results historically. They had to do that a lot with Odell last year. And we can blame Odell's injury, but I don't blame Odell's injury for the balls flying 8, 9ft over his head and they felt like they had to manufacture targets for him. So I guess I just wanted it to come naturally.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

But Evan Ingram avoided the PUP to start camp, which is. That's something for him. That's good news.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's great news. He's healthy now. I believe that is because there has not been football being played, but as soon as football is played, we'll see.

[Andy Holloway]

Most shows would not report this as news, but we're not most shows. Raiders have signed running back Jeremy Hill. So I'm looking at you, Mike.

[Unknown]

Look, adjust your rankings. Year one, Adjust your rankings appropriately. Josh Jacobs, look out.

[Andy Holloway]

If you don't remember Jeremy Hill, I'm not surprised. But Jeremy Hill was once tattooed on Mike's back.

[Unknown]

Chest.

[Andy Holloway]

Chest. Sorry. But you got that removed. It turned out okay.

[Unknown]

Most of it.

[Andy Holloway]

And then Ty Hilton has a hamstring injury which is just, you know, coming off an injury plagued season. You don't like to see it.

[Unknown]

No.

[Jason Moore]

Bad momentum and it was, you know, last year.

[Andy Holloway]

It's minor, but.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but you know, the soft tissue, leg issues last year that hampered him. Now you've got it happening again heading into, you know, a preseason less season. I don't like this at all. It definitely puts up a red flag for me when I'm staring at Ty Hilton and other players. He's been one of those 50, 50 guys where I'm like, oh, I kind of like the value here, but there's other players right there I like. I'll probably, you know, if he doesn't drop an adp, I would choose the other players.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to. I'm willing to hold out judgment for a little while here till we see if he's on the field to begin camp. But no, it's not good. He's always got something going on. He's always just getting over something or about to start something new. So it's concerning. Any other news you guys want to talk about? No. All right. Before we get into our main segment today, I do want to take a second and remind everybody about the Ultimate Draft Kit. It's available right now. You get access to the 100 plus video player profiles. We've got tons of new features this year. You can check them all out@ ultimatedraftkit.com you get access to the app. So you can use it on your computer, you can use it on your phone. We've got updates all the time. I mean, Jeremy Hill is really, really high in Mike's rankings, which you can see. RB number one, RB1 ultimate draft kit.com for that. Very excited about, you know, just helping you prepare for your draft. Set that foundation for your year and maybe you waited a little while because you didn't know if we'd have a season. And now you've got to get ready because your Zoom Draft is coming up. That's what we're doing. We got the Zoom Draft.

[Unknown]

That's right.

[Andy Holloway]

And you can get ready at ultimate draft kit.com and make sure you check.

[Unknown]

Out fantasychamps.com People ask, where do you go for your, your trophies, your rings? Because look, it's all about celebrating when you are a champ. A champ needs to champ.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Unknown]

And the only place you should be doing that is fantasychamps.com rings, trophies, belts. Oh, my. A bunch of amazing things. I mean, our trophy shelves here are stocked with gear from fantasy champs and if you use the code ballers on checkout, you're going to save a little bit of money. Fantasychamps.com.

[Jason Moore]

Ice and fire.

[Andy Holloway]

There's a part of the show where people hit the back 30 seconds button three or four times. Welcome in to Ice and Fire. For 2020, we have each selected one ice, one fire pick for the upcoming season, one bust, one breakout. And who wants to kick it off? I guess we're starting with Ice because the drop tells me we need to do that.

[Unknown]

Well, the segment's called Ice and Fire.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I can, I could start it off. All right, well, we'll start it off. We were just talking about Jarvis Landry. Let's talk about a teammate of his, a man that got the bag. Austin Hooper, last year's tight end number one through the first half of the season. And not just the tight end one, he was dominant. Travis Kelsey was the tight end number two through that first half of the season at 11.7 fantasy points a game. Austin Hooper was up at 14.6.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we forget about how nice that run was.

[Jason Moore]

He was awesome. Came back. That was exactly when he was injured after week eight and then came back, struggled with a little bit of injury, but, you know, parlayed that into signing the richest tight end contract. At that point in the, in the NFL, he was the highest paid tight end. He's being drafted as a tight end one right now in fantasy drafts and the foot clan. I'm telling you, stay away. It's fool's gold.

[Andy Holloway]

It's not ice bath for Austin Hooper.

[Jason Moore]

For Austin Hooper. Here's why I am down on Austin Hooper. First of all, as a player, he is an above average tight end. He's all right. He's, he's pretty good.

[Unknown]

The Browns think he's pretty good.

[Jason Moore]

They do. But I mean this is a guy who's a third round NFL draft pick, a 59th percentile athlete, a guy who before this last season, his highest yardage total in his career was 660. His highest touchdown total. That's where Titans really make their hay, right? Fantasy. His highest touchdown total in a season was four before this last season and that includes multiple 16 game seasons. So why was he so great to start last year? Well, it's simple fantasy football math. It's opportunity. He ran the most routes in the league at tight end 36.2. That was number one. So he was running, he was on the field looking for the ball more than Kittle, more than Kelsey, more than everyone. That's what number one means, that he had the most.

[Unknown]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

And if you look at, I don't know, say Kyle Rudolph, the tight end one for the head coach that is now the coach of the Browns, he only ran 22.4 routes per game. Why did he only run 22.4? Well, because he wasn't the only guy running routes at tight end. Irv Smith, their rookie last year ran 19 routes per game. So these are guys that, you know, the tight end position was important. That's why they went out and paid him. But their system runs multiple tight ends, you know, at different times there, which I think is a good strategy. But my point is last year as a Falcon, Austin Hooper was successful for Fantasy because he was running routes nonstop. And not only was he running routes nonstop, but he was running routes nonstop for the team that threw the ball the most. The Falcons threw the ball 684 times last year. The Browns only threw the ball 539 times, 145 fewer targets. And so if you give him the same percentage of routes run and you, and he's the man, but you take away 145 targets from the team, he's not going to be that great. But of course that was the Browns new head coaching team coming in from the Minnesota Vikings where they threw the ball 466 times, 218 fewer targets. This team is not going to throw the ball as much and they are going to split the tight end workload with David and Joku who requested a trade. And what did the Brown say? They said no, we're, we're really planning on using you.

[Andy Holloway]

And he unrequested it this week.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean did you see that? I did not see that.

[Unknown]

It's probably because he never happened.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he said he's super excited to be in Cleveland.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, I'm guessing it's because complete lie. You know, it's one of those things where it's like, oh yeah, I'm going to be on the field running routes a lot on this scheme. So if you take Austin Hooper, who's just an average or above average talent, but he's not a. He's not a dominant.

[Unknown]

You don't need to poo poo the player. You just don't like him for Fancy.

[Jason Moore]

My point is he's not a super.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, athletically, David Njoku is far superior than Austin Hooper. Hooper is the more reliable. He's the Jason Whitten in today's NFL. He's exceptionally reliable. He became a best friend to Matt Ryan in terms of just you can throw the ball to him 10 yards away and he's going to catch it 75 times a year. But he's not somebody that's going to go take fewer targets. You're making the argument and then still offer you that high end production because his yards per catch is low. I mean compared to some of the bigger.

[Jason Moore]

Well, he's not one of those guys that breaks tackle runs for a kittle. Exactly. So I just don't see any upside with Austin Hooper. I can't fathom him paying off in fantasy and being someone that you really, really like week in and week out.

[Andy Holloway]

Judge, you should grab some ADPs on these guys so that we can reference them because I'm curious where Austin Hooper is. He's one of the players that more frequently gets asked about in terms of us being down on him. And I believe he is in our UDK as a, you know, as a bust pick. And so I'm on board with this argument. I just don't think there's going to be the opportunity outside of Beckham and Landry being hurt and them having to build the passing offense around Austin Hooper of repeating what he did last year.

[Jason Moore]

Austin Hooper is currently the tight end 10 on Yahoo. The Titan 11. So he's being drafted as a starter for fantasy.

[Unknown]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, I'm going to hand the ball off to Mike.

[Unknown]

Well, speaking of handoffs, I want to bring up a running back that I have cooled on tremendously. I'm not drafting him anywhere. Okay, I get it. The name power is mighty from Todd Gurley, the new starting running back for the Atlanta Falcons. I get it. I want Todd Gurley to be good. I want him to be great for fantasy. I'm not projecting that though. Here's what has happened over the course of Todd Gurley's career in 2016, the sophomore year, Gurley's coming off a great rookie season. The breakout is imminent. Everyone's taken Todd Gurley with the second over or first overall pick in fantasy drafts. His offensive line that year ranked 29th and Todd Gurley put up 885 rushing yards. It was an absolute catastrophe, a bust of a season. Now the people who stuck with it, they. They choose to ride or die with Todd Gurley. Sean McVay came in, he fixed that offensive lineup. They were ranked third. Their offensive line was ranked third in 2017. Todd Gurley responds with over 1300 rushing yards, follows it up the next year with 1250 rushing yards because he has the number one offensive line in the league. Last year, the offensive line completely crumbles. What else crumbles? Todd Gurley's rushing numbers. He drops to 857 rushing yards. A 400 rushing yard drop. The offensive line could not block what he needed to get open. There's all the talk of Todd Gurley's arthritic knee.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I was going to say, do you almost feel like the injury was overemphasized relative to these type of.

[Unknown]

I'm just saying, it's definitely like I hadn't even gotten to that. Part of the argument of the team was the team chose not to go all out with Todd Gurley last year. I mean, he was, he was still getting opportunity, but the efficiency absolutely collapsed. Now he goes to the Atlanta Falcons where the last two years their offensive line has ranked 24th. That's not a great situation. They do have a couple pieces who are interesting, but Pro Football Focus is projecting them as the 24th best offensive line. So Todd Gurley is not walking into a great situation. Todd Gurley, also like he was, could.

[Andy Holloway]

Be limping into a great situation.

[Unknown]

He could be limping with one good knee.

[Jason Moore]

I see what you did there.

[Unknown]

Let's talk about red zone opportunity. Because Todd Gurley was still fine for fantasy football with his 850 rushing yards because the dude was scoring absolutely nonstop. And that's because last year The Rams had 18 carries at the running back position inside the five. Atlanta 10. Two years ago, the Rams had 20 carries inside the five. Atlanta. Oh, wait, still 10. Because they're not getting opportunities to the running back position inside the five. Like what has happened to Todd Gurley? The Rams know something. The Rams did not want to pay him. Like they, they could have kept Todd Gurley forever. He was under contract.

[Jason Moore]

They're paying him still.

[Unknown]

And they said, nah, man, we need you off the team. You're better for our team if you aren't on it anymore. And look, the, the receptions, here's where things are really crazy to me. The receptions. We know that the receptions absolutely plummeted. But Todd Gurley was still on the field last year. He ran the four or tied with the fourth most routes run at the running back position. He was out there. And his receiving rank from Pro Football Focus, 132 out of a. Sorry, 132nd best.

[Jason Moore]

Oh yeah.

[Unknown]

Out of 137 running backs or the big headline that is behind Kalen Bellage, the dude who has the circus video of him being scared to catch the ball being. Being brick hands. That's how Pro Football Focus graded out Todd Gurley's receiving grade. Things have absolutely plummeted for Gurley. And like I said, he was out there. 391 routes run only 49 targets. To put that in perspective, he was running very similar routes the past couple years for Sean McVay when he was getting 81 targets, 87 targets. The team decided, Jared Goff decided, I'm not going to throw the ball to Todd Gurley. I don't like what is happening when I throw him the ball. So I am very concerned about the player. The situation is not great. Yeah, he's the lead back. He'll see opportunity.

[Andy Holloway]

But I know something interesting that I'm very concerned. I just glanced, I wanted to see how the fantasy community valued Devontae Freeman in this offense. Last year he has the identical draft position that Ty Gurley does right now. Last year, last year he was the fifth pick of the third round. Ty Gurley's current ADP is the fifth pick of the third round.

[Unknown]

Oh my goodness. Seriously?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So it's interesting, like looking at year over year, Devonta Freeman last because I was kind of wondering like, are we getting the name recognition bump for ADP wise with Gurley? And I actually think, you know, certain players we reference. Maybe this is a good time to talk about it. We reference average draft position on the show a lot, which is a conglomeration an average of every single mock draft taking place over a recent amount of time. That doesn't mean that's going to happen in your league. And it's very important for you to understand. Todd Gurley's the kind of player that I think will have a wider variance than other players in terms of in one league he's going to be a second round pick. In another league he might be a fourth round pick because he's been at the forefront of the fantasy community for so long. He's got a big name, big production, won people leagues, lost people leagues. Hurt me, not hurt knee. He may not go in this range, but, you know, you bring up some very important points. I've always thought this offseason he's just not going to get as much of the work as, you know, we want him to as fantasy.

[Unknown]

Well, that would be even worse.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. I mean, like if Brian Hill, you know, recently they've said they believed he should have an opportunity in the offense. If he gets a little bit of extra work, it's going to make it difficult for Gurley to return draft value unless that offensive line takes a step forward. Because then you might make the argument that efficiency will rise.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I have been more positive towards Todd Gurley and my argument for that is the fact that what he lost last year was the receiving work that made Todd Gurley so valuable. A reception is worth so much more in fantasy football than a carry. And he didn't get the targets and the receptions that Todd Gurley should or Todd Gurley of old has or any.

[Unknown]

Other running back running that amount of routes.

[Jason Moore]

Absolutely. And so when I look at how much, you know, over the course of, you know, Devon Freeman's career, he's been involved in the passing game, how many vacated targets for Atlanta, the passing opportunity for Todd Gurley in Atlanta is what has excited me. Looking deeper, as you have at the fact that he was running the routes, he was involved, he just wasn't good.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, it's hard to, hard to know who the. Who to blame though.

[Jason Moore]

But at least we know that the blame can be his. If, if he's not out there running routes and they schemed him away and they just decided we need more blockers in and, you know, or whatever the case is, then we say, well, Gurley's going to have more opportunity here, but he had the opportunity last year and didn't come through in the receiving game. Whether that's just getting, you know, to a, to a break on a route quicker and he doesn't get there. And so he's not the read that scares me a little bit more. And certainly when I, when I saw this breakdown, it makes me rethink my girly love.

[Andy Holloway]

Where are you comfortable with him, Mike? Is he a fourth round running back instead of a third round running back?

[Unknown]

He's not a fourth round running back for me either. That's what I want to say. Like there is a world where Todd Gurley can be Very valuable for your fantasy team. He's just, he is an ice pick for me at his current adp. If he's dropping into, I mean, it would have to be a big drop.

[Andy Holloway]

Let me challenge you because you won't like the question because it's not going to be easy. All right. We just talked about McCoy, Ronald Jones or Todd Gurley. I knew, I know it's not going to be a very good question for you.

[Unknown]

That is terrible. I think I would slightly Todd Gurley.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. I think that's where I am too. Speaking of schemes, talking about Gurley, what he did last year, we're going to talk about another tight end to finish out the ice section. It's another ice bath for a tight end and it's almost entirely because this argument needs to be made. Entirely because of the ADP of this player. And it's Tyler Higby, fantasy darling for the back half of the year. Tight end 7 right now in fantasy drafts. Is he the Hig beast? Is he the Hig bust? That's what we've got to figure out. We got to figure that out.

[Jason Moore]

That's pretty good.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason was a big fan for Tyler Higby and you look forward into this season. We've talked a lot about the Rams and what they're going to do on the offense and I'm going to concede a few points in this argument against Tyler Higby. But it comes down to snaps, opportunity and then the recency argument for Tyler Higby. His five game stretch to end the season was outlandishly good. It's. It's historic, it's historically good. That's a good way to put it because I think there's about three or four tight ends that have ever done that over a five game span. When I look at Tyler Higby though, it, you know, how Predictive Are these five games? This is a player that I think has 63 NFL games in his career. Am I confident enough in Tyler Higby to invest the six round pick to make him the tight end seven based on five games out of 63 in his career. And yes, I can hear you in the back of my head. Tight ends take a while to develop.

[Jason Moore]

Tight ends can be featured later on.

[Unknown]

I see myself as more of like a baritone.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that voice is pretty high, but.

[Jason Moore]

Tight ends take a while to develop. I got you, Mike.

[Andy Holloway]

I really needed the regular Vopo. Not my voice or Mike, but when you look at what took place, I think you saw a perfect storm at the end of Last season. That doesn't justify putting him in the top eight tight ends. I understand that the upside was presented to you on the field last week. I brought up the fact, you know, four of the last five games of the season, you had a few things working in Tyler Higby's favor, like hundreds of receiving yards. Hundreds of receiving yards were working in his favor, available to him because in weeks, you know, 13 through 17, you had basically no Brandon Cooks. You had basically no Gerald Everett. You know, Gerald Everett is the Jordan Reed prototype hand selected by Sean McVeigh, treated as the pass catching back. When you look at what Tyler Higby has done, he succeeded at a far greater level than Gerald Everett in blocking. Not being that move tight end, not being that athletic tight end, going out and catching the passes last year. And you look at snap counts week one through 12 for Tyler Higby, Tyler Higbee on the field 35% of the time when Gerald Everett was healthy, when Brandon Cooks was healthy that week, weeks 13 through 17, all of a sudden you're at 68% of the time he's on the field. We saw the transition to 12 personnel, and here's the point I'm willing to concede. I think you're going to see more of that this year than you did last year. Otherwise, I don't think that this team gives away Brandon Cooks for free. I really don't. If they're a three wide receiver offense, I don't think they give Brandon Cooks away for free. But when you look at targets, I mean, Gerald Everett was gone, you know, this offseason. Anecdotal Sean McVeigh hype talk speak, you know, excited about what Gerald Everett's going to do. I think Tyler Higbree did a phenomenal job, but I think Gerald Everett's a guy that I've got to do a better job of utilizing the skill set on. I think it wasn't at the very end of the year he was back on the field and golf missed him on that route down the sideline to win that last game. I can picture it. Everett, yeah, coming down the side of the field. He was drafted to be that Reed clone. And so you have to look at it. And to me, I just don't see Higby as a featured option week in and week out. Once you have Gerald Everett back into this, into the fold, he's the more athletic tight end. And so then you're looking at a two tight end situation. You're looking at target distribution with Cooper cup, the Running backs, Robert woods, both guys, both wide receivers are going to demand a lot of targets. So my prediction for him is that he is a back end tight end. One, he is a high end tight end Two, range and Everett pops up to massacre weeks for him. I mean too frequently for me to draft him at tight end. Seven, and here's the gap that you see in average draft position. Higby's the seventh or eighth tight end off the board. Gerald Everett's the 35th or 36th tight end off the board. If the argument is this offense is going to move forward with two tight end sets and Gerald Everett has proven like he did last year in multiple game stretches to be a good fantasy tight end, why on earth isn't Everett getting any attention in the fantasy community? But he's on the field just as much.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but Higbee was on pace for 137 receptions and 1670 yards.

[Andy Holloway]

It's true, it's true. But I don't want to play the five game pace though.

[Jason Moore]

The snap breakdowns and the matchup specificity of those five games says that that is absolutely a mirage. That being said, he did show his team that when involved, right. He can be great against four teams.

[Andy Holloway]

That were the dead last in the league at giving up points to tight ends.

[Jason Moore]

And it I will say this, they.

[Andy Holloway]

Got exploited every week. The Cardinals twice, 49ers in Seattle. The NFC west starts your tight ends and that's a good coach. A good coach should see a team as vulnerable and feature what you got left.

[Jason Moore]

There are certain positions that are easier to stream based on a matchup, right. Like defenses. I love streaming defenses because you know what the bad offenses are. Who throws a bunch of picks. One of the best positions to stream is tight end because those teams that stink at guarding tight end, they stink every week at guarding tight end. And so I will say that I think, I think it's a good point and I like Everett this year I think it's going to be a one two punch and I'm. I'm not sure who the one in the one two punches the.

[Unknown]

Just to piggyback on the historic because here's why I believe in Tyler Higby. I have him ranked right where his positional ADP is. So I'm fine with if you want to take the shot on Tyler Higby on a guy who, who in a five game stretch showed he could be like the number one overall tight end since the year 2000. Before last year you only had three tight ends that had strung together four straight games of 100 yards. Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham, and I'm Blake. Oh, and Travis Kelsey. And now Tyler Higby is in that group. Rob Gronkowski, first ballot hall of Fame. Rob Gronkowski didn't accomplish that feat.

[Andy Holloway]

If you Give Tyler Higby 11.2 targets per game, which is what he got from weeks 13 through 17 in the offense that threw the ball more than anybody in football, you're going to be fine. If you get the three targets a game when Gerald Everett was active from weeks one through 12, you're going to have wasted your draft pick. And it is a shot. You're taking the shot. I don't want people to see him as a lock. And when you're tight in seven, you're getting up there.

[Jason Moore]

So yeah, I think that's the issue. Right. He's a sixth rounder right now. If he's dropping to the 10th round, the upside is worth that risk because, you know, whatever I'm, you know, I'm not giving up a valuable running back or wide receiver in round 10, whereas round six, there's still some, some really solid known commodities.

[Unknown]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

If they're running two tight ends with Gerald Everett and Tyler Higby on the field, what do you think that target gap is going to be even if you're on the Higby side? I mean, it just seems hard to imagine that they're going to feature one.

[Jason Moore]

And a half, you know, targets a game.

[Andy Holloway]

So. All right, it makes, I think that makes a compelling argument for the ignored Gerald Everett, who was a really good tight end for long stretches last week last year. All right, let's move into the fire picks bringing the heat. Who wants to go first?

[Jason Moore]

I guess I'm up.

[Unknown]

Jason's up.

[Jason Moore]

We'll just keep the, keep the order going. No guff.

[Andy Holloway]

No guff. All right, no guff.

[Jason Moore]

Look, there was some recent coach speak about this player and I am, I am catching fire.

[Andy Holloway]

Can I tell you what kind of coach it was real quick? It was the kind that made me go in the Dynasty league where I traded this player and make a couple of real piss poor efforts to get him back. Just some real junk offers just to. Just to assuage my conscience for trading him away.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, and the hymn is Miles Sanders. I am getting a little hot and bothered. The fire is coming in my belly for Miles Sanders because this coach speak. Look, our job, you listen to the show in part. I mean, for many, many reasons. Number one, to win championships. Number two, to enjoy. Three, no Guff, three, no guff. And four, decipher coach speak, because a lot of times coach speak is really, really stupid. And this coach speak, which Frank Reich.

[Andy Holloway]

Disagrees with you, but go on.

[Jason Moore]

Deuce Staley, the running back coach for the Philadelphia Eagles, was basically saying he's excited about him handling the full workload. That was the coach speak. And So I have three reasons why I 100% believe the coach speak. Reason number one, specificity. I went and watched the interview. I didn't just look at the headline. I watched him talk about him. And when he was talking about Miles Sater saying, this is a guy that can handle it. He's excited about giving him the full workload. He says he doesn't want to limit him to 15 touches. And then he kind of corrects himself. He goes, well, like, I don't want to limit him to 15 carries and five passes. He's really specific saying he doesn't want to limit him to 15 carries and five passes that limit that. Not, you know, you don't want to limit him to there. If they gave him 15 and 5, that would be 320 touches. That's what they don't want to limit him to. Here's the players with 320 touches last year. Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb, Derek Henry. All top 10 fantasy options, three top five. That's a lot of touches. Yes. That's what they don't want to limit him to. Now, of course, he's just, you know, talking off the, you know, off the cuff. And so I'm not sitting there thinking he did some math on, you know, his little pad there and came up with these specific numbers. But let's talk about reason number two, why I believe this coach speak. We've already seen it.

[Unknown]

This.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, last year you had after the buy, which was right in the middle of the season and excluding the final game of the season, because in the, in the final game of the season, he got hurt.

[Unknown]

Got hurt. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

He didn't play past midway through the second, and he was fine enough. He came back, played the next week in the playoffs 76%. So during that stretch of almost half the season, he was on pace for 250 carries and 83 targets. That's 333 opportunities per game. So we've. This is coach speak saying that 320 touches is what they don't want to limit him to. And when he was the guy last year, they already were giving him those touches. So this, this isn't really coach speak all that much. And reason number three, the depth chart. You have Boston Scott. Who he's, he's okay.

[Andy Holloway]

He's fine. Working against him. He is Boston Scott.

[Jason Moore]

Right. He's the sixth round Boston Scott that was cut from the Saints. A practice squad guy that only got the opportunity after all the injuries in Philadelphia. Now he showed he was.

[Unknown]

I can't believe you're besmirching Boston.

[Andy Holloway]

He gets all the credit in the world for being the Boston Scott.

[Jason Moore]

He can be best Boston Scott he can be. And I like Boston Scott enough. He's a good pass catching running back. He's valuable but he was there last year during this 333 touch pace for Miles Sanders. Who else is there? Corey Clement, been there. Michael Warren, like been there Chart is the reason that I loved Christian McCaffrey a couple of years ago. There just was. We were like oh, is he going to evolve into the workload? Well, it was like well what are the other options?

[Unknown]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

They don't have other options.

[Andy Holloway]

The Leonard Fournette plan to success.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. Of last season. So those three reasons. Reasons the specificity of the coach speak. The depth chart that says well we still have to and the fact that we've already seen it. And my final reason for falling in love. Here's a list for running backs who have had at least 800 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards as a rookie.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I know that list.

[Jason Moore]

Since the year 2000. That's as far back as my data goes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I know that list.

[Jason Moore]

Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, end of list.

[Unknown]

That's a good list to be on.

[Jason Moore]

That's a good list. He had a really good rookie year and now he's being built up as the look, there's no doubt he is 100% a workhorse back. He is a every down back for fantasy football this year and he's talented, he's very athletic, he's capable. So I am, I am in love with Miles Sanders upside. And I think his floor with those touches is very safe. So I, I mean I'm, I, I think I might take him over my Kenyan Drake.

[Unknown]

I was going to say let's figure out where you have the.

[Andy Holloway]

Where the heart, the fluttering.

[Unknown]

The heart has swollen. So let's see where we are. Will you be drafting Miles Sanders or. Okay, easy one. Kenyan Drake. You just said you'll take I.

[Jason Moore]

That, that is the toughest one but okay. It's a coin flip.

[Unknown]

Miles Sanders or Josh Jacobs?

[Jason Moore]

Miles Sanders.

[Unknown]

Aaron Jones?

[Jason Moore]

Miles Sanders, Derek Henry Probably Derek Henry.

[Unknown]

Okay, so that's where the line is.

[Jason Moore]

If it's full ppr, Miles Sanders. If it's half PPR or standard Derek.

[Andy Holloway]

This feels like one of those situations where, like, we have all of our internal, like our UDK rankings and our projections, and we have to work some, you know, systems in the back to stop a guy from moving him too fast. Like, we have to have, like, a little warning bell go off.

[Unknown]

We've checked balance on the show.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you sure? No music to my ears. I mean, this is. I believe that this team is willing to give the workhorse role to a running back that deserves it.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

And that. That's all it comes down to. I mean, they just, like Cam Newton was willing to throw the football to a running back that could catch it. You know, sometimes you force the issue. And Miles, I got no complaints with what you're saying other than the fact that this team seems to go through four phases every year of different offensive line, quarterback play, injuries. It's a little bit of a bumpy ride with Philadelphia predicting.

[Unknown]

It was a bumpy ride for Miles Sanders the whole off season.

[Andy Holloway]

So if you stayed true, Devonte Freeman.

[Unknown]

All these leave then. And McCoy, if you just believed in Miles Sanders. Look, it worked out well.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, as of now, I moved him in a league because I was trying to play the gamble that the rumors about adding another piece. I want to trade the hype of Miles Sanders before the acquisition of a Carlos Hyde. That might kind of siphon off a little bit of the opportunity.

[Unknown]

Oh, it definitely would have.

[Andy Holloway]

And I lost that.

[Unknown]

It looks like it.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Unknown]

My fire pick, Andy was already trying to douse the flames of this player at the beginning of the show, but it doesn't matter to me because was I you? I thought you were. No.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I mean, I doused maybe all the time.

[Unknown]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

But not specifically this show.

[Unknown]

Maybe all the time. Well, you were talking about Jarvis.

[Andy Holloway]

I said I wanted Jarvis on the field for a Beckham bounce back. Yeah.

[Unknown]

Oh, okay. So it's Odell Beckham, wide receiver for the Cleveland Browns. Look, the.

[Andy Holloway]

I can't wait to hear this.

[Unknown]

I don't love his. I'll be honest. I don't love the adp, but I want to lay out the case. I think Odell Beckham will be back, and here is why. It was a terrible year for Odell Beckham, who still hit over 1,000 receiving yards, by the way, but it was his lowest yards per game by 20 yards. You saw a massive dip in production. His catch rate was a career 62.75%. The catch rate plummeted down to Andy 55%. Thank you. Now look, let's take a deeper look at Odell Beckham. The player reception perception. It's how Matt Harmon charts players. He looks at wide receivers. We have that data exclusively available in the ultimate draft kit. He has graded out Odell Beckham, always positive. Odell Beckham has crushed this system. He has never finished below the 98th percentile versus press coverage. So you want to, you want to bump on Odell Beckham. He is in the top 2%. He is getting open. It's a stupid thing to run press coverage against him. Last year from the top 2%, he fell to the 45th percentile. Like that is. That is unbelievable drop. Which look to me that says something very specifically that if you're putting your hands on Beckham, he's not. Something is missing. And then Matt Harmon's assessment was it was so pronounced his drop. You have to conclude that Beckham simply was not healthy at any point in 2019. And here is a quote that I missed from December. Beckham said, I've been banged up all year since whatever happened in camp. Odo Beckham was on the injury report every single week. We just did not realize how bad this training camp injury actually was. It was a core injury. He had to go and get it repaired, which he has, he has done in the offseason.

[Andy Holloway]

Odo Beckham is going to be 100%, 100% healthy. Now.

[Unknown]

Jarvis may not be. What was interesting of when I was looking back for Odo, Jarvis wasn't going to have surgery. That was kind of the decision. And then a little bit later on they clearly changed back and say, no.

[Andy Holloway]

You should do this.

[Unknown]

I don't know. And then let's look at the other opportunity who's throwing him the ball. So I believe that Baker Mayfield, I believe he can bounce back with Kevin Stefanski as his head coach. Freddy Kitchens was an absolute failure. We saw Odo Beckham's deep completion percentage. His adjusted completion percentage dropped 10% in from his rookie year. 2 Last year, his regular completion percentage dropped by five whole points. The offensive line has been rebuilt going into the season. Pro Football Focus is projecting them as the number six offensive line headed into the season. You have a new oc, Alex Van Pelt, who is a former quarterback. He is a quarterback coach. He was the quarterback coach for Aaron Rodgers when Aaron Rodgers had his MVP season. Not saying you give the all the credit to the quarterback coach, but that Certainly helps that the oc, His. His main focus is fixing Baker Mayfield. And then something that I thought was, you know, it's. It's at least interesting was Kirk Cousins saw his clean dropbacks improve from 61% of the time. He had a clean pocket that jumped all the way up to 69%. Under the Kevin Stefanski to tight end offense, he put emphasis on protecting Kirk Cousins.

[Jason Moore]

Nice.

[Unknown]

I think. I really think that this system is set up so perfectly for Baker to bounce back. Which, by the way, we've seen Baker as a starting quarterback basically. You know, the five years, his two pro years, and then his three years at Oklahoma. I'm ignoring the Texas year. He was great. Every single time he's been on a football field, including his rookie year, we've seen him be terrible once. And I think there are very specific reasons for things being terrible. Part of it is Baker's fault. But I'm putting a lot of blame on what the coaching, the management of Cleveland did to that team last year.

[Andy Holloway]

I think the one question people have about how good Baker can be is, you know, Kirk Cousins is great, but it might not equate. It might equate to success on the field. It might not equate to the fantasy side. How do you approach that when you say, look, Kirk Cousins, arguably, I mean, I was tweeting about it all year. He was the best quarterback in football, Kirk, by several metrics. In the Stefanski offense.

[Unknown]

It didn't matter for you saying, so just Baker's. Baker's fantasy output.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm saying you could be 100% right on Baker and still not get fantasy output from him.

[Unknown]

Yeah, that's fair. Yeah, that's fair. This is not me making the case that, oh, that, that Baker Mayfield is going to be a top 12 quarterback or anything like that. I'm just saying I really believe that Odell Beckham was hurt far worse than anybody knew.

[Andy Holloway]

That's interesting.

[Unknown]

It happened in training camp, right?

[Andy Holloway]

And then it showed up on reception perception.

[Unknown]

Like, the dude has been elite, not just great. He has been elite since he came into the league, and I don't think he is done.

[Jason Moore]

When. When I watched them play, it always seemed like Odell Beckham and Baker Mayfield were completely out of sync. I mean, always, every play it seemed like he's. He's like you said Andy is. Well, the injury can't cause him to throw the ball eight yards away from him, but maybe that's where probably both.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, it's probably both.

[Jason Moore]

Both situations because he wasn't bad throwing the ball to Jarvis.

[Andy Holloway]

Baker was getting. Yeah. Closer line of scrimmage. I'm sure. But Baker was getting hammered and then Beckham was hurt. It's not a good situation. Right. So yeah, it's interesting he's being drafted as the wide receiver nine. Yeah.

[Unknown]

The ADP is not the best, but if he. If last year, if that was just health and he's healthy this year, the OTO Beckham should at least return ADP value with upside of being the number one guy.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, last pick here. My fire pick. Not going as the wide receiver. 9 going as the wide receiver. 28.

[Unknown]

You are all in, man. All in.

[Andy Holloway]

AJ Green, push the chips. It's the price. I mean look, you don't look. The amount of chips I got to push in for A.J. green isn't a lot. It's not the Beckham chips anymore.

[Jason Moore]

They were lost. You lost all the chips on AJ.

[Andy Holloway]

Green last year, which again, this is why he's in the seventh and eighth round. My argument for A.J. green this year as a fire pick is price. So average draft position is a factor and productivity. Make peace with this statement. AJ Green is a fragile player. Make peace with this. If you draft A.J. green, you're drafting a fragile player. You're 100% buying a fragile player. That's step one in the A.J. green argument. But if you go beyond buying a fragile player, he's been an unstoppable force in the National Football League for the previous 111 games he's played as an NFL wide receiver. There has been no decline in any way, shape or form of his on the field performance. You know, we talk about Mike Evans hitting that six year thousand yard mark. AJ Green would have had a seven year stretch to start his career except for he hit 964 on a ten game season. So he would have had seven straight years. Last time he was on the field, he was on 130 target, 80 catch, 1200 yard, 10 touchdown pace. Also known as all the stat lines AJ Green always puts up when he's on the field. You get into the more anecdotal narrative street arguments. Do you know what it costs to franchise a wide receiver in the NFL? A lot.

[Unknown]

A lot.

[Andy Holloway]

$17.8 million. This is a team that we talk all about. Oh, Joe Burrow, the future. T. Higgins, the future. Zach Taylor, the future. We're looking to the future.

[Unknown]

You don't.

[Andy Holloway]

This is a tight wad franchise. You're going to drop $17.8 million on a player that didn't play last year. That sounds like them saying, we hear you, Andy. We still believe A.J. we still believe A.J.

[Unknown]

Well, we were actually going to move on, but then there was this podcast.

[Andy Holloway]

That I heard is a difference. Well, he's telling me, they're telling me they believe that he's still a difference maker. He's talked about loving the Zach Taylor offense, that he could play a long time in this offense. It facilitates a longer career for him. And if you look at AJ Green, we know what he is athletically. He's never been a burner. You look at the kind of Larry Fitzgerald career extension arc, that's the kind of thing I can apply to a player like A.J. green. Zach Taylor coming out, he's going to be a huge part of this offense and the team. Everything we define as a Bengals. What AJ Is you worried about the quarterback play. Alan Robinson has Mitch Trubisky, DJ Moore has Teddy Bridgewater, Devonte Parker has insert quarterback here. One of them, Terry McLaurin has insert quarterback here. Dwayne Haskins, maybe Alex Smith coming back. All those players are way above AJ Green in average draft position. Joe Burrow can sling it. He's coming in with arguably the most compelling single season collegiate quarterback resume of any rookie quarterback in the last 15 years. So my whole, my whole argument here is you're not getting AJ Green will not be what his ADP is. He may be. You might lose the chips. You're buying a fragile player. He could get hurt again. But know what he did? He didn't come back. He didn't force himself back from the injuries. He just waited and got better. And he's like Odell Beckham on paper right now from the coaching staff, 100% healthy. You're not going to get wide receiver 28 to 32. You're going to get much, much above that or you're going to get, as Jason said, you're going to find that treasure chest on the beach. You're going to open up. There's nothing inside. Maybe some crabs.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I don't think you want.

[Unknown]

Never want crabs.

[Jason Moore]

Never want crabs. And you know, I think your best argument here is the price is the fact that you're taking a high.

[Unknown]

I'm in.

[Jason Moore]

You're taking a high upside pick at a place where if you're wrong, it's not the end of the world, you know, look, I want my seventh rounder. I want him to come through. But it's not like you're giving up your first or second round pick to get AJ Green. So you're taking your shot. I'm probably still out, but I don't mind it. You know, last year, I was. I was very anti AJ Green. This year, I personally will probably try to avoid it. He's 32 years old.

[Andy Holloway]

Let me ask you a question. Because you brought up Ty Hilton at the top, I just want to put you on the spot here.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Late third round, Ty Hilton, middle seventh round, AJ Green. What are you picking?

[Jason Moore]

If. If. So if this was a keeper league and I could choose to grab one of those two players. That's a great question.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm just curious.

[Jason Moore]

I'm. I'll probably take. Ooh, that is tough. I think AJ Green in the seventh and having a fourth round pick available to grab someone else in the fourth with Ty Hilton's. Oh, the third. Yeah, I think I go AJ Green there.

[Unknown]

I have Green ranked higher.

[Jason Moore]

There you go. It's easy for Mike.

[Unknown]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, well, ice and fire in the books, guys.

[Unknown]

We made it.

[Andy Holloway]

We've got a mock draft show coming up.

[Unknown]

Morning show.

[Andy Holloway]

We've got episodes every single day. Do us a favor. Subscribe to the podcast. Click that subscribe button. Whether it's Apple podcasts, Google Podcast, Spotify. Click that subscribe button. Wait, it's completely free.

[Jason Moore]

Jay, you said do us a favor. I'm gonna. I'm. Do yourself a favor. Click that subscribe button. You're welcome.

[Andy Holloway]

It's our guff free promise. Okay. We're gonna answer a ton of questions again this week, get you ready for the 2020 fantasy football season. We want to thank Pristine Auction for sponsoring the show. It is pristine week through August 6th. Listen to this. $100,000 in giveaways at Pristine Auction just this week.

[Unknown]

That's a lot of giveaways.

[Jason Moore]

We know the people there, and even internally, some people are like, why are we doing.

[Andy Holloway]

There's too much.

[Jason Moore]

Are you sure you want to do this?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's just not. I mean, that's a lot of money.

[Jason Moore]

That's a lot of money. But it's great if you get in.

[Andy Holloway]

There's a special code for this week. If you go to pristineauction.com use the code PW2020. So pristine week, PW2020. You get $10 off your first item. There's $100,000 in [e-mail]. use the code PW2020. That was fun.

[Unknown]

Indeed.

[Andy Holloway]

We should do another show, and we should do it tomorrow.

[Jason Moore]

I agree.

[Unknown]

I'm in after my nap.

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Unknown]

See you all tomorrow. Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot. Com and follow us on Twitter at theffballers.