Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - "Ice & Fire Picks, Hot Lockett, Groin Index" (May 16, 2019)
Hosted by Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright, the Fantasy Footballers deliver expert analysis and actionable advice to help fantasy football enthusiasts dominate their leagues. In this episode titled "Ice & Fire Picks, Hot Lockett, Groin Index," the hosts delve into player performances, potential regressions, breakout candidates, and crucial NFL updates.
1. Introduction to "Ice & Fire Picks" Segment
Timestamp: [00:54] - [02:15]
The hosts introduce the featured segment "Ice & Fire Picks," a popular segment debuted during last year's live tour. Andy Holloway expresses enthusiasm, stating, “Ice and fire. On the show today” ([00:54]). Mike Wright adds, “Probably the best thing we've ever done” ([01:28]), highlighting the segment's success and popularity among listeners.
2. Analyzing Tyler Lockett's Performance
Timestamp: [03:05] - [07:03]
The discussion begins with Tyler Lockett's impressive but puzzling 2018 season. Mike Wright remarks, “Tyler Lockett's 2018 season haunts my dreams” ([03:53]), expressing concern over his statistical anomalies. Lockett maintained consistent targets and receptions, but his catch percentage, yards, and touchdowns surged unexpectedly.
Key Points:
- Air Yards Analysis: Mike explains the concept of air yards, emphasizing that high air yards typically indicate positive reception potential. However, Lockett's receiving yards surpass his air yards, which is unusual and suggests inefficiency ([04:55]).
- Potential Regression vs. Continued Growth: Despite the data suggesting a regression, Jason Moore defends Lockett, aligning with Matt Harmon’s positive outlook: “I go with impress because look at what Matt Harmon has always thought” ([07:03]). Moore trusts in Lockett's role with Russell Wilson and anticipates sustained or improved performance.
Notable Quote:
- Mike Wright [04:00]: “Tyler Lockett's 2018 season haunts my dreams.”
3. "Ice Picks" Analysis
a. Jimmy Garoppolo as an Ice Pick
Timestamp: [18:42] - [27:19]
Jason Moore selects Jimmy Garoppolo as his Ice Pick for 2019, expressing skepticism about Garoppolo’s ability to maintain high touchdown numbers.
Key Points:
- Touchdown Expectations: Moore projects Garoppolo will need to throw around 24-25 touchdowns to remain relevant, citing last season's performance ([25:31]). He worries that without significant improvement, Garoppolo might not reach the necessary threshold.
- Offensive Dynamics: The shift in offensive strategies under Kyle Shanahan, with a focus on running backs like Jerick McKinnon, could limit Garoppolo’s opportunities for turnovers ([25:09]).
Notable Quotes:
- Jason Moore [25:31]: “If he's going to be back there as a passing quarterback, he'll have the yardage. He's going to have to have touchdowns to capitalize.”
- Andy Holloway [25:42]: “That's why he’s an ice pick.”
b. Eric Ebron as an Ice Pick
Timestamp: [28:37] - [33:07]
Mike Wright names Eric Ebron as his Ice Pick, citing concerns over his role and injury history.
Key Points:
- Historical Performance: Ebron has only rarely posted high touchdown numbers, with a notable but unsustained burst last season.
- Injury Concerns: Ebron is recovering from a groin injury, raising doubts about his return to form ([10:04]).
- Role Uncertainty: With Jack Doyle’s return, Ebron's snap counts have fluctuated drastically, dropping to 21% and then 38% in subsequent games, undermining his reliability as a fantasy asset ([28:37]).
Notable Quotes:
- Mike Wright [28:37]: “Eric Ebron was not a full-time player when Jack Doyle was on the field.”
- Jason Moore [31:46]: “2019 will be the year of Kerryon Johnson,” indirectly supporting concerns about Ebron's role stability.
4. "Fire Picks" Analysis
a. Mike Williams as a Fire Pick
Timestamp: [33:52] - [38:05]
Andy Holloway chooses Mike Williams of the Los Angeles Chargers as his Fire Pick, anticipating an uptick in Williams’ production.
Key Points:
- Increased Targets: With the departure of Tyrell Williams, Mike Williams is positioned to receive more targets, enhancing his fantasy value.
- Playoff Performance: Williams showcased his potential in the playoffs against New England with 11 targets and substantial receptions ([35:29]).
- Physical Attributes: His size and goal-line presence make him a consistent touchdown threat, essential for fantasy success ([35:29]).
Notable Quotes:
- Andy Holloway [33:52]: “Mike Williams is my fire pick for 2019.”
- Andy Holloway [36:21]: “He has to be what Vincent Jackson used to be in San Diego.”
b. Kerryon Johnson as a Fire Pick
Timestamp: [39:35] - [43:22]
Jason Moore selects Kerryon Johnson of the Detroit Lions as his Fire Pick, forecasting a breakout season rooted in efficiency and increased usage.
Key Points:
- Efficiency and Versatility: Johnson demonstrated remarkable efficiency last season, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and being a dual-threat in receiving ([39:35]).
- Team Dynamics: With improvements in the Lions' offensive line and the dissolution of his competition, Johnson is poised for a significant increase in carries and targets ([40:20]).
- Comparative Advantage: Moore likens Johnson’s potential to that of David Johnson's, expecting consistent fantasy production despite the team’s overall offensive challenges ([41:45]).
Notable Quotes:
- Jason Moore [39:35]: “2019 will be the year of Kerryon Johnson.”
- Andy Holloway [42:14]: “Do we think that Detroit is a better football team than the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings or Chicago Bears?”
5. NFL News and Updates
a. Eric Ebron’s Injury and Groin Index
Timestamp: [09:37] - [12:37]
The hosts discuss Eric Ebron’s groin injury and critique the Groin Index newsletter, warning listeners against relying on it for injury updates.
Notable Quotes:
- Mike Wright [10:15]: “What's the, I actually don't recommend the Groin Index.”
- Jason Moore [11:04]: “You guys don't subscribe.”
b. Jets Fire GM and VP of Personnel
Timestamp: [13:40] - [16:03]
Significant news emerges as the New York Jets fire their General Manager Adam Gase and Vice President of Personnel following unsuccessful offseason moves, including the high-profile trade for Sam Darnold and acquisitions of Le'Veon Bell and C.J. Mosley.
Key Points:
- Impact on Le'Veon Bell: Concerns arise regarding Le'Veon Bell’s role and workload under interim GM Adam Gase, potentially affecting his fantasy value ([14:23]).
- Team Direction: The firing signifies a shift in the Jets’ strategy, leaving uncertainty about future offensive tactics and player utilization.
Notable Quotes:
- Andy Holloway [14:01]: “Adam Gase is the interim GM now.”
- Jason Moore [15:31]: “Le'Veon Bell with a healthy workload.”
6. Auction Highlights and Promotions
Timestamp: [48:47] - [49:16]
In the “Pristine Deal of the Day” segment, Keenan Allen’s signed Under Armour football cleat is highlighted, selling for $65 on pristineauction.com. The hosts praise the uniqueness of such memorabilia, including signed cleats and rare items like David Montgomery’s gear.
Notable Quotes:
- Andy Holloway [48:47]: “What’s cool is they have things like an Adam Thielen pylon in a signed cleat.”
Note: Promotional content for the Ultimate Draft Kit and Hellofresh was excluded per instructions to skip advertisements and non-content sections.
7. Conclusion
Timestamp: [49:03] - END
The hosts wrap up the episode by reiterating their commitment to helping listeners win their fantasy leagues. They encourage reviews on Apple Podcasts and promote live show tickets via ballerslive.com.
Key Takeaways:
- Tyler Lockett remains a debated topic with mixed projections regarding his performance.
- Jimmy Garoppolo and Eric Ebron are highlighted as potential "Ice" picks due to concerns over their upcoming seasons.
- Mike Williams and Kerryon Johnson are identified as "Fire" picks with high upside and expected increases in production.
- Recent NFL news, including the Jets' management changes, may have significant implications for player roles and fantasy strategies.
- Listeners are cautioned against unreliable injury reporting sources like the Groin Index newsletter.
For more insights and detailed analysis, tuning into the full episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast is recommended.