Luck Retirement Fallout + Bold Predictions

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Episode Summary: "Luck Retirement Fallout + Bold Predictions"

Release Date: August 26, 2019

In this engaging episode of Fantasy Footballers, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve into the seismic announcement of Andrew Luck's retirement and explore its ramifications for the NFL and fantasy football leagues. The trio also presents a series of bold predictions for the upcoming fantasy football season, offering listeners insightful analysis and actionable advice.

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1. Breaking News: Andrew Luck's Unexpected Retirement

The episode kicks off with the shocking news that Andrew Luck, the 29-year-old quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts, has decided to retire. This announcement came just an hour before the show aired, leaving both hosts and listeners in disbelief.

• Andrew Luck's Retirement Impact:

  • Mike Wright expresses his surprise, stating, "Andrew Luck, 29 year old quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts has retired" ([02:00]).
  • Andy Holloway remarks on the rarity of such a high-profile retirement close to the season's start: "I can't think of another thing that, you know, this close to the season for a player to retire and not just like, oh, you know, a journeyman right guard" ([03:07]).

• Physical Toll on Andrew Luck: The hosts discuss the extensive injuries Luck endured: "Torn cartilage and two ribs, partially torn abdomen, lacerated kidney, one concussion. Torn labrum, and then this mysterious calf slash. Teeny tiny bone injury" ([02:20]).

• Fantasy Football Implications:

  • Mike Wright makes a bold prediction: "I don't think the Colts win the super bowl anymore. Spicy" ([03:41]).
  • Andy Holloway assesses the Colts' fantasy value post-Luck: "The only person that even looks like they could be a value for the Colts in my rankings is actually Mr. Jacoby Brissette himself" ([04:16]).
  • The trio debates the futures of key Colts players like Ty Hilton, Marlon Mack, and Jacoby Brissette, highlighting the uncertainties now facing the team.

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2. Impact on the Indianapolis Colts and Fantasy Roster Decisions

With Luck's departure, the Colts' roster undergoes significant scrutiny, affecting fantasy football strategies.

• Ty Hilton's Fantasy Value:

  • Andy Holloway assigns Hilton a conservative ranking: "Ty Hilton, I now have as in a half point scoring as my wide receiver, 27. So he's not irrelevant. He's still going to be a fantasy" ([04:36]).
  • Jason Moore observes the general skepticism around Hilton's potential: "There were like audible moans and groans when you said that" ([04:57]).

• Marlon Mack's Role:

  • Andy Holloway emphasizes Mack's dependency on Luck: "Marlon Mack is the player that is the most single handedly he is affected the largest because this is a player who's not the pass catching back" ([06:16]).
  • Mike Wright cynically notes, "we all knew Andrew Luck was coming" ([06:56]).

• Jacoby Brissette's Potential:

  • The conversation shifts to backups like Jacoby Brissette, assessing his readiness to step up in a post-Luck Colts team.

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3. Bold Predictions for the Upcoming Fantasy Season

Transitioning from the fallout of Luck's retirement, the hosts introduce their segment on bold predictions, each forecast poised to stir debate among fantasy enthusiasts.

a. Juju Smith-Schuster as the Top Fantasy Wide Receiver

• Andy Holloway predicts: "Juju Smith Schuster, a star has been born and he's going supernova... JuJu Smith Schuster finishes this season as the number one wide receiver in fantasy football" ([28:26]).
• Jason Moore expresses skepticism but acknowledges the potential: "It went from me thinking you were out on him to a coming all the way back around" ([30:03]).
• Supporting Arguments:
  • Andy cites Brady’s historical support for top receivers and Schuster's improved quarterback situation: "He has a quarterback that can do it."
  • Emphasis on touchdown potential: "He gets 22 total touchdowns" ([32:58]).

b. Austin Ekeler Finishes as a Top 12 Running Back

• Mike Wright declares: "Austin Ekeler finishes 2019 as a top 12 running back. Yes" ([33:52]).
• Rationale:
  • Ekeler's role as a pass-catching back and potential increased usage if Melvin Gordon misses the season: "He was second in yards after the catch last year, third in yards per reception" ([35:23]).
  • Comparison to past backs who thrived in similar situations: "Danny Woodhead could be the new Danny Woodhead" ([36:57]).

c. Atlanta Falcons Dominating Every Fantasy Position

• Jason Moore asserts: "The Atlanta Falcons will have a player finish inside the top 12 at every single fantasy football position" ([37:30]).
• Andy Holloway counters with skepticism regarding tight ends: "Austin Hooper... he could climb his way in" ([39:21]).
• Discussion Points:
  • Matt Ryan's consistency at quarterback despite not being favored by all hosts.
  • The potential rise of other Falcons players like Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper in fantasy rankings.

d. Cleveland Browns as the Beginning of the End for Their Fantasy Value

• Andy Holloway revisits a past prediction and shifts focus: "I think that the Browns are overpriced" ([43:38]).
• Concerns:
  • Baker Mayfield's unproven status and Odell Beckham's new team dynamics.
  • Historical mismanagement and a tough division: "They have a head coach that's unproven" ([43:56]).

e. Cooper Kupp Leading the League in Touchdown Receptions

• Mike Wright boldly forecasts: "Cooper Kupp will lead the league in touchdown receptions this year" ([44:34]).
• Supporting Evidence:
  • Kupp's red zone efficiency and receiving prowess: "He has the seventh most red zone receptions" ([46:07]).
  • Jared Goff's high number of red zone attempts: "Jared Goff has thrown 46 touchdowns in the red zone" ([46:49]).

f. Chris Carson as a Top Five Fantasy Running Back

• Jason Moore predicts: "Chris Carson ends the season as a top five fantasy football running back" ([47:38]).
• Justification:
  • Carson's increased workload and consistent performance: "He averaged 19.4 carries a game... 311 carry pace" ([48:07]).
  • Potential for high touchdown numbers and a leading role in the Seahawks' offense: "16 touchdown pace" ([49:52]).

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4. Mailbag: Listener Questions and Host Responses

The segment transitions to audience interactions, where listeners pose questions about drafting strategies, scoring system adjustments, and fantasy football's impact on families.

a. Adjusting Rankings with Different Scoring Systems

• Listener John inquires about how a .04 point per yard scoring system affects quarterback rankings.
  • Mike Wright reassures: "It doesn't change anything" ([51:55]).
  • Emphasis on continued reliance on the Ultimate Draft Kit for organization: "Plug in your scoring system into the UDK and then we'll organize it for you" ([53:35]).

b. Drafting Strategies When Starting Picks Are Lower-Tier

• Listener Linda Neville grapples with having a first pick at #24.
  • Jason Moore advises prioritizing running backs and wide receivers early: "Don't waste an early pick because you don't have them" ([54:38]).
  • Andy Holloway encourages stacking RBs and WRs to mitigate drafting a high-quality quarterback early ([54:11]).

c. Fantasy Football Within Families

• Mike Wright shares personal experiences of involving family members:
  • His sons are drafting their first teams, fostering inclusivity: "Create a league that's fun with great people" ([58:35]).
  • Andy Holloway humorously notes his family's lack of participation: "My wife will never participate in fantasy football" ([58:57]).
• The hosts discuss the benefits of involving family to enhance the inclusivity and fun of fantasy leagues.

d. Strategies for Large Redraft Tournaments

• Listener Dan Kerber asks about strategies for massive tournaments like the "Mega Laborer."
  • Mike Wright emphasizes playing to win and selecting versatile, high-impact players: "Stack up those players that can really turn the nitro on halfway through the year" ([59:32]).
  • Andy Holloway underscores the importance of drafting healthy and reliable players to navigate the immense competition ([61:11]).

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5. Conclusion and Wrap-Up

As the episode draws to a close, the hosts extend their gratitude to sponsors like Pristine Auction and St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, reinforcing the show's commitment to high-quality content and community support. They encourage listeners to engage with their content online and look forward to the excitement of the upcoming NFL season.

• Andy Holloway remarks on concluding the tour: "This is it. Back home, football is starting. It's going to be a lot of fun" ([66:06]).
• Jason Moore bids farewell, wishing listeners success in their drafts: "Hope you crushed your draft. I'm sure you did. Goodbye" ([66:13]).

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Notable Quotes

• Mike Wright on Andrew Luck's retirement: "Andrew Luck, 29 year old quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts has retired." ([02:00])
• Andy Holloway predicting JuJu Smith-Schuster's rise: "Juju Smith Schuster finishes this season as the number one wide receiver in fantasy football." ([28:26])
• Jason Moore on Chris Carson: "Chris Carson ends the season as a top five fantasy football running back." ([47:38])
• Mike Wright on Cooper Kupp: "Cooper Kupp will lead the league in touchdown receptions this year." ([44:34])

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This episode of Fantasy Footballers provides a comprehensive analysis of Andrew Luck's retirement and its ripple effects across the NFL and fantasy leagues. Coupled with their bold predictions, Andy, Jason, and Mike equip fantasy managers with the insights needed to navigate the uncertainties of the upcoming season.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

All right.

[Jason Moore]

Fantasy Footballers is brought to you by Head and Shoulders and Walmart. NFL fans always love arguing whether is it offense that wins the game or is it defense? You know, I think offense, head and shoulders is great offense for your hair.

[Mike Wright]

Andy, you're wrong. Head and shoulders is great defense for the flakes.

[Andy Holloway]

Ah.

[Jason Moore]

No matter where you fall on the debate, Head and shoulders will give you 100% flake free scalp. Fine. Head and shoulders on Walmart.com welcome to.

[Andy Holloway]

The Fantasy Footballers podcast coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome in, welcome in. The People's Fantasy Tour concludes tonight.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, it does.

[Jason Moore]

Right here in Phoenix. What's going on now? We have. Last year in Phoenix, we did this show. We brought out some bold predictions. We're doing it again tonight.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I've got a good one for the top of the show.

[Andy Holloway]

It's too, it's too hot. Mike.

[Mike Wright]

There's, there's like when we throw them out in this show, you think there's no way that this can possibly happen, but it just might.

[Jason Moore]

It just might happen. We normally get right into the quick question and we have a great one there as well, but I have to hit this button.

[Andy Holloway]

Breaking news.

[Jason Moore]

Well, what today is. This show is being recorded on the single busiest draft day of the entire year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, good thing everything stays status quo.

[Jason Moore]

Andrew Luck, 29 year old quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts has retired.

[Andy Holloway]

What a world. Yeah, we're getting some cheese.

[Jason Moore]

Is there anybody. This news broke in about an hour before we started this show. Is there anybody in the audience that didn't know until just now?

[Mike Wright]

I'm sorry, someone's in the back. I got Andrew luck in the 12th.

[Andy Holloway]

It was crazy.

[Mike Wright]

He just kept dropping, so I snatched him up.

[Jason Moore]

So we updated our ultimate draft kit and somebody sent me a note and they screenshotted it and you see down, down, down, down. All the Colts are down. And they said, is there, is there Colts news I don't know about?

[Andy Holloway]

Nope, just a gut feeling.

[Jason Moore]

Just a gut.

[Andy Holloway]

We've got real good intuition.

[Jason Moore]

So we're starting with the breaking news. We'll circle back to the quick question. Let me read you the physical toll on Andrew Luck through six years. Torn cartilage and two ribs, partially torn abdomen, lacerated kidney, one concussion. Torn labrum, and then this mysterious calf slash. Teeny tiny bone injury.

[Mike Wright]

New bone, new bone.

[Jason Moore]

But this is the most shocking thing to happen in the NFL and in fantasy football in as long as I can remember.

[Andy Holloway]

I can't Think of another thing that, you know, this close to the season for a player to retire and not just like a player. This isn't like, oh, you know, a journeyman right guard.

[Mike Wright]

Ryan Fitzpatrick finally hangs them up.

[Andy Holloway]

No, this is Andrew Luck. This was, I mean, early in the off season prior to the, the calf injuries, the Colts were my super bowl pick. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

How's your tickets looking right now, dude?

[Andy Holloway]

Look, I just, I'm going to, I'm going to. This is a bold pivot. A pivot, bold prediction show. I'm going to right now, right here, predict super spice. I don't think it comes true. I don't think the Colts win the super bowl anymore. Spicy.

[Jason Moore]

Beyond Andrew Luck, who went from not playing in 2017 to comeback player of the year, 39 touchdowns last season to now retiring Ty Hilton, Marlon Mack, Naim Hines, Eric Ebron. What happens now?

[Andy Holloway]

I think it's pretty rough. You know, in truth, when I updated my rankings, as insane as it is, the only person that even looks like they could be a value for the Colts in my rankings is actually Mr. Jacoby beef brisket himself. Jacoby Brissette.

[Mike Wright]

Where's the beef?

[Andy Holloway]

There it is. But I mean, we had to dig through the vaults.

[Jason Moore]

That's old. That's old.

[Andy Holloway]

That's real old. Andy. I know we disagree a little bit on the outlook for Ty Hilton. Ty Hilton, I now have as in a half point scoring as my wide receiver, 27. So he's not irrelevant. He's still going to be a fantasy.

[Jason Moore]

There were, there were like audible moans and groans when you said that.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, it stinks. You take a guy who had some.

[Jason Moore]

From my Dynasty team to be.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, man, I remember having him.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you traded, you traded him.

[Mike Wright]

Ty Hilton twice in his illustrious career. Twice has been under the thousand yard mark. Once was his rookie season and once was the year that he played the entire year without Andrew Luck.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's not good. It's not good for Ty Hilton. He's a player that can lead the lead, lead the league in yardage with a quarterback. We both move Jacoby brissette to the 20 range at the quarterback position based on what we think he can do. I think he was the best backup in the league, arguably. But you're going from a top five quarterback to 20 at best. And this is unfortunate. Now the situation for Jacoby Brissette isn't the same that it was in 2017. No, it's much better. Different coaching staff. I mean, you've spent most of your offseason yeah, you love Frank Reich. And then in 2017 he was pressured on 40% of drop backs. That's the sixth highest number in the league. So a better offensive line trying to find a silver lining for somebody. But Marlon Mack's breakout season goes out the window. Most likely you're not on the goal line, you're not moving the football.

[Andy Holloway]

Marlon Mack is the player that is the most single handedly he is affected the largest because this is a player who's not the pass catching back. This is a player who dominated in the games where he was winning. This was a player who if you look at the game splits in games where they won by wide margins. Mack dominated. He was running out the clock. He had touchdown opportunities. He is a perfect back for an Andrew Luck led Colts. And he's not a back that I would believe in as much without him. So I mean, you know, he was almost a. My guy dodged that bullet.

[Mike Wright]

Well, you should have known. I mean we all knew Andrew Luck was coming.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. So I mean he's a guy that now is like RB30 for me. I'm not, you know it's, it's. If you're drafting right now, this week, ADP doesn't matter. You need to use the rankings like if you, if you've got the ultimate draft kit and you're, you know our rankings are now updated in that use those versus ADP for as to when should I take Marlon Mack because none of the ADP is going to make any sense in your home leagues.

[Jason Moore]

Do you expect any of these Colts to drop to the point where they are going to be draft day values?

[Mike Wright]

Look there.

[Jason Moore]

You both moved Hilton lower than I did. I have like 18 now.

[Mike Wright]

I moved, I moved him down. He, he finished his year with. It was under 1000 but he was almost there. However, when you look at how he got there, it was four huge games which great. Those four weeks were spectacular.

[Jason Moore]

I couldn't predict them.

[Mike Wright]

But you had to play him every single week to get those four weeks. The one player where I did nothing to his stat projection. There was a player in, in 2017 who had 108 targets, 80 receptions. That was the man with those baby hands, Jack Doyle.

[Jason Moore]

Find a way to make this good for Jack Doyle.

[Mike Wright]

I'm just saying we have, we have.

[Jason Moore]

Targets, smaller handed men, right?

[Mike Wright]

Maybe, maybe that's what he's attracted to or maybe it's that he just is like crap. Jack Doyle, take the ball.

[Jason Moore]

We are going to circle. There'll be ramifications for this Andrew Luck situation. That go well beyond this show. We'll talk about it throughout the next couple of weeks and into the season.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, I do want to throw out one. One quick name. I know it's. It's. It's deeper. It's in a dynasty league. First of all, if you're in a dynasty league, pick up Jacoby Brissette. Don't. Don't. Just let the Andrew Luck owner get him for free, okay? Foot Glenn, make it cost money or get him for yourself. But if you're in a deep league and you got a trash bench, Chad Kelly is like, Jacoby Brissette's a very good backup. But Chad Kelly, a name you might not be familiar with, is a great quarterback who I believe has the potential to be a great quarterback who has been just a terrible human being and. Or has. Let's just say he's had poor decisions.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

So he's, you know, you want them to make a frequent poor decision.

[Jason Moore]

You want them to make the good decision to put him on their dynasty.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, it's up to you, but take a little Peekski.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we'll circle back to this quick question. Before we get to that. I do want to. And give it up for St. Jude. This entire. We're very, very proud to be partnering with St. Jude Children's Research Hospital throughout this entire tour. All of our proceeds from this event here in Phoenix are going straight to St. Jude. They've been an incredible partner. You guys know a dollar from every ultimate draft kit straight to St. Jude. So appreciate their support. We're proud to be partners. And then we want to thank Pristine Auction. They've sponsored this tour as well, and they've been great partners. We're giving away this autographed David Johnson helmet at the end of this show. And he looked pretty good today.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's looking up.

[Jason Moore]

It's looking good. Did you swing the pendulum back a little bit?

[Mike Wright]

No, I kept him where he was, but he's still top five. All right, here's what, six? I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

We're going back to the well on this quick question. We asked it here last year. Best player analogy for 2019. It's that simple. Your. Your best play last year. I compared Sam Bradford to you. Yeah, And I.

[Mike Wright]

You nailed it.

[Jason Moore]

Well, hey, but listen, I respect you. I'm not going back to that well. I'm not going to do that again. And obviously, Joy Bell retired, so I don't have a player comp that fits.

[Andy Holloway]

Come on, man. C.J. anderson's still out There, I compared him.

[Jason Moore]

To a professional running back, but what's your player analogy, Mike?

[Mike Wright]

All right, I'll set the table here. First, how many the guys on. How many are fathers out here? How many dads do we got in the crowd? So most of you also have dads as well. Like, that's kind of how it works. But here's the thing.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, you're talking to me.

[Mike Wright]

I haven't hit it yet personally, but there's a day in every father's life where he loses in arm wrestling to his son. And that day you go, oh, you got me this time, son. You tussle his hair, you say how proud you are of the man he's becoming. But in your heart, you think, that was once. That was just a one off. But then it starts to eat you inside. And then jokingly, what if it's not? No, you jokingly, wow, son, we got a rematch because that was garbage. I was on five hours of sleep. Blah, blah, let's go. And then you arm wrestle and you lose again. And then you bring up something else. You say, let's race, and you lose the race because once you have lost to your son, you never win again.

[Andy Holloway]

You're going in different directions on the aging scale.

[Mike Wright]

As the father, you may say, I just got this awesome new job and now I'm making way more money than you. But it doesn't matter because you're not going to score more fantasy points because your son is James Connor and The father is Le'Veon Bell, who has been surpassed by his son, James Conner.

[Andy Holloway]

I like it. I like it. I don't. I don't know if all three of us agree, but I agree. I like. I think James Conner is a great option.

[Jason Moore]

I just like that despite the fact they're on different teams now, you still are pitting them firmly against one another.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, you're on back. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

You know, you think Levy and Bell's not going to look at every single box score of James Connor?

[Jason Moore]

He probably will do that.

[Andy Holloway]

Darn right.

[Mike Wright]

And go and bring it. He's going to bring it to Adam Gase and say, James Conner got seven targets this week. I got three. What's going on here?

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so I'm going to bring up another four former Steeler. And I'm gonna say, yeah, take that. I'm gonna say, remember that Super Bowl.

[Jason Moore]

Now we'll get.

[Mike Wright]

Now who's laughing?

[Andy Holloway]

Antonio Brown is the wizard of Oz, Because.

[Mike Wright]

Wait, hold on. The Wizard.

[Andy Holloway]

He is the wizard, okay? In the wizard of Oz, he's the wizard of O. Here's. Here's how. He's the wizard of Oz.

[Mike Wright]

Hold on, hold on.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, let's just make sure. Just to make sure you get it.

[Mike Wright]

Antonio Brown, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Wizard, Insane Oz, but in Oz. All right, we're there.

[Mike Wright]

Proceed.

[Andy Holloway]

So, Antonio Brown, the Wizard of Oz. Here's how. You've all seen the movie the wizard of Oz. This unbelievably powerful.

[Mike Wright]

You know, someone hasn't seen the wizard of Oz.

[Andy Holloway]

If you haven't seen the wizard of.

[Mike Wright]

Oz, what's wrong with you?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, you. You need to do a little. A little update on your movie watching time. So the wizard is this all powerful, unbelievable being of magic that can grant any wish. And they're all. I mean, he's just so good. Just like Antonio Brown, right? The number one wide receiver in football for so long. He's the best. But then eventually we get to look inside the curtain and he's a crazy person. You peel back the curtain and you go, oh, this dude's just some maniac pulling levers, going nuts, talking out of his butt. That's riding around in a hot air balloon. Riding around in a hot air balloon, making crazy demands, right? Like, you bring me that witch's broomstick. You give me my old helmet. But here's the thing. Here's the thing for fantasy. In the end, even though the wizard was a crazy person, look, he got the job done, Dorothy got home, the lion got his courage, Tin man has a heart, and the scarecrow had a brain. I think Antonio Brown is a crazy person. That's gonna be just fine for fantasy football. He's gonna get the job done. If he's dropping to your third round scoop.

[Jason Moore]

That went from me thinking you were out on him to a coming all the way back around.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, fantasy wise, he's a.

[Jason Moore]

He's a very talented crazy person.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a very talented crazy. Just like the Wizard.

[Mike Wright]

Nothing to see here.

[Jason Moore]

All right, well, that was incredible. You're still won't be able to follow it, but we're out here in Arizona. How'd it feel outside today?

[Andy Holloway]

Felt like Adam Gates outside. Whoa.

[Mike Wright]

Not safe for work, bro.

[Jason Moore]

Not nice outside. If you're in Arizona, you spend five seconds outside, much less work out there. Go for a walk. Walk to your car from the mall. Whatever you do in Arizona, it's hot, you're thirsty, you're parched, you need a drink. You turn to your friend, you say, hey, toss me a refreshment. Aaron Jones is a frozen water bottle.

[Andy Holloway]

It should be good.

[Jason Moore]

You know what it can do. You know that you want that thirst quenched, you want that refreshment for your fantasy team, but you can't do anything with it. Maybe you wait a little while. Maybe you wait and you get a couple drops, week two, week five, a couple drops here and there. Unlike my colleague, I don't find it a point in his favor that he's playing on the team that ran the ball, the least of every team in football. And Matt LaFleur is supposed to be the savior, except for he's historically run the least amount of plays of any team in football over the last couple of years. I love Aaron Jones. I know the refreshment he could be for my fantasy team, but I'm afraid I'm not going to get it very often. Here and there. But that's why I think he's a frozen water bottle.

[Mike Wright]

Here's the thing about the frozen water bottle. Halfway through the day in Arizona, that's now a refreshing water bottle.

[Jason Moore]

You're dead already. You're dead.

[Mike Wright]

You're dead.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's get into the rest of the news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league presented.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, Foot clan. We're with you on this Andrew Luck situation. All this breaking news. We knew six games tonight. We came in thinking that the headline was Carry on. Johnson lost his center for a couple of weeks. For recent news, I don't normally have my phone out. I've got to have my phone out today because what else is going to happen?

[Andy Holloway]

What's going to happen?

[Jason Moore]

Lamar Miller.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. In previous top headlines.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Lamar Miller carded from Saturday's preseason game against the Cowboys. Left leg injury. Some of you have seen the replay, some haven't. I wouldn't watch it.

[Mike Wright]

It's bad.

[Jason Moore]

It's not good. All indications. Adam Schefter came out, tweeted. It looks, they believe ACL tear. There are people that drafted Andrew Luck and Lamar Miller today.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, oh. And that's why we say draft as late as possible.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean in your draft, go ahead and wait till after week three of preseason to do your drafting.

[Jason Moore]

But here we are. Lamar Miller likely gone for the season. Houston favorites in the division, even more so now. And what do we do? They have Duke Johnson. They have.

[Mike Wright]

They're lucky.

[Jason Moore]

Dot, dot, dot.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh.

[Jason Moore]

Just so for the people at home listening, the Phoenix crowd are just yelling names of whoever they want to go to. Houston, Melvin Gordon, Carlos Hyde, Sean McCoy. Someone yelled Andrew Luck.

[Andy Holloway]

Adrian Peterson should be out. Andrew Lucky. They should just go Get Marlon Mack because he's.

[Jason Moore]

Here's the thing. Here's the thing. Duke Johnson's a pretty good running back.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Him holding up, them turning the reins over to him permanently doesn't seem likely. But today people are drafting, people are thinking about what Duke Johnson is for the rest of the season. I had a couple leagues where I took him with, you know, last round pick, second to last round pick, almost dropped him for somebody else. But now what is he for? Fantasy owners? And do you expect them to bring another name in like a Jay Ajayi?

[Andy Holloway]

They have to. They have to. Duke Johnson is not a big enough bad.

[Jason Moore]

But what about Josh Ferguson?

[Andy Holloway]

That low. Josh Ferguson. What about Buddy Howell? Just like Buddy Howell.

[Mike Wright]

If you thought we weren't gonna do that, you don't know the show very well.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, exactly. Uh, oh, sorry. Yeah, look. And Mary Tyler Moore's not getting it done either. So the reality is they have to bring someone in. Now, are they going to be able to trade for an Adrian Peterson? Everyone wants him to go get Melvin Gordon. Yes. That would be delightful. That would be awesome. The more that I think about it, I can't imagine that happening. They don't have a gm. They can make a trade like they traded for Duke Johnson.

[Jason Moore]

You call Bill up, but that's what you do. You call Bill and you say, hey, Bill.

[Mike Wright]

Well, you get sexy Rexy.

[Jason Moore]

No, Bill O'Brien. Oh, he's the GM. He sees work.

[Andy Holloway]

He is the GM.

[Jason Moore]

He worked the Duke Johnson trade.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. But they didn't have to restructure a contract. And right now Melvin Gordon's contract is. It's not been easy or going well to restructure. So I can't imagine them getting the deal done without a GM for Melvin Gordon. But I do think they have to bring someone in. Jay Ajayi. So when I look at Duke Johnson, he's someone you have to pick up, you have to draft. If he's falling right now, he looks valuable. But I do temper my expectations because I think he can't be a guy that comes out and gets 230 carries.

[Mike Wright]

Well, he's never had more than 104 carries, and that was his rookie season. He's never had more than 379 rushing yards. Now, that doesn't say that Duke Johnson can't do it, sir.

[Jason Moore]

Look at Damian Williams.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly. It just says that combined with their depth chart, they are, they have to make a move as, as a contending team that their, their goal is the Super Bowl. Their goal is not, we hope we win the division. Their goal is to win the Super Bowl. They have to add a running back to miss.

[Jason Moore]

They miss Alfred Blue said no one ever. That's the most likely outcome is somebody like Alfred. I mean Carlos Hyde, Darwin Thompson, Darrell Williams, Damian Williams all played ahead of him tonight.

[Mike Wright]

Carlos side's not making the roster.

[Jason Moore]

Probably not going to make the roster. That's the kind of player that's going to come in and screw up high hopes for Duke Johnson with. I mean, they're willing to give Alfred Blue the ball but.

[Mike Wright]

But even still with that as like right now. So this is Saturday night, Monday, it could be a way different thing. But right now, if I'm drafting tonight, I'm willing to take the seventh round gamble on what Duke Johnson could be. I mean, we also know that pass catching is in his profile. Not that Deshaun Watson has historically passed to the running back very much. But we know that Cam Newton didn't pass to the running back very much till he had a guy who was fantastic at that. He had that skill set. So I'm still going to take the gamble of what Duke Johnson could be, even though I in, in my heart I believe that Carlos Hyde, Shady McCoy, Jai One of those guys is going to come in and kind of rain on the parade.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we will talk more preseason thoughts from week three, the remainder of the games. Some takeaways on our next show. Two quick ones though. I might as well hit this. Dee Dee Westbrook, John DeFilipp, best route runner he's ever been around. Mike.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, stop, John. Just stop.

[Jason Moore]

Does it feel like he's actually complimenting you, Mike? A little bit?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, a little bit. It does it. The timing of the breakout of Dee Dee Westbrook in that preseason game, they were something special.

[Jason Moore]

Still feel very good about D.D.

[Mike Wright]

Westbrook? Yes, I feel very confident that D.D. westbrook is going to be a PPR machine.

[Jason Moore]

Frank Gore rushed eight times for 57 yards.

[Mike Wright]

He gets infinite.

[Andy Holloway]

He is all.

[Jason Moore]

He is Gore.

[Andy Holloway]

He is Gore. I mean, Dude's dude is 50 years old playing running back. And here's what's crazy.

[Jason Moore]

You know who doesn't lose? That arm wrestling match.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Frank Gore never loses his son.

[Jason Moore]

Frank Gore never loses.

[Andy Holloway]

He. If you didn't see the preseason game, he had this breakaway run. He looked great. He goes out of bounds. Another defender comes in, illegal flagged shot, murders his knee. Just looks exactly like Lamar Miller. The foot is kind of planted in the, in the turf and he has to go off. He's injured. Five minutes later, he's back there looking like a beast.

[Mike Wright]

Of course he is at 50 because he has the Infinity Stones. He's rubbed it on his knee and he's good to go.

[Andy Holloway]

But it does but but it does bring fantasy wise.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, Frank Gore.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I don't think Frank Gore is rosterable, but it does say that Shady is looking very good. He is the clear back. Frank Gore appears to be the secondary option which just throws a little bit of cold water for this season for redraft leagues on Devin Singletary breaking into fantasy relevance.

[Jason Moore]

Fair enough. Same thoughts. All right, that was today's news and notes brought to you as always by the sleeper app, which was almost completely destroyed by the Andrew Luck news.

[Mike Wright]

You better have the sleeper app.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey Foot Clan. We want to thank longtime supporter and sponsor and maker of awesome razors Harry's for helping support the show. A lot of guys are traveling this summer and you're buying disposable razors. But look, you don't have to sacrifice quality for price. You can join the 10 million who have traveled and tried Harry's. Harry's delivers high quality travel friendly shave supplies at a great low price. Just $2 per blade. They literally bought a factory in Germany just to make sure that they can manufacture at a great price with a great blade. This summer, refresh your wallet and your face with a Harry's trial set. It comes with a weighted ergonomic handle for an easy grip, five blade razor with a lubricating strip and trimmer blade for a close shave, rich lathering shave gel that will leave you smelling great and a travel blade cover to help keep your razor dry and easy on the go. Listeners can redeem your trial [e-mail] footballer make sure you go to harrys.com footballer to redeem your offer and let them know that we sent you to help support the show.

[Mike Wright]

Foot Clan we'd like to thank today's sponsor Quip Toothbrushes. I have had a quip toothbrush now for many, many moons and I love it. I never leave my house when I'm going on a trip. I always grab the quip because when you go on a trip you gotta get that quip look. It's got timed sonic vibrations over an effective clean that's gentle on your sensitive gums in just two minutes. Twice a day they got a multi use cover that works as a stand. It mounts to the mirror. I got my thing up on my mirror. My quip. It's great. It's out of the way, looking nice. The lightweight Compact design means you can bring it along with you on those last summer weekend getaways. And brush heads are automatically delivered on a dentist recommended schedule every three months for just five bucks, making it easy to stay committed to your oral health. That's why I love quip and why it's perfect for getting back into a routine. Quip starts at just $25. And if you go to getquip.comfootballers right now, you can get your first refill pack for free. That's your first refill pack free@get quip.com footballers. And now back to the show.

[Jason Moore]

But without further ado, our main segment.

[Andy Holloway]

Ridiculously bold predictions.

[Jason Moore]

Now, when we say bold predictions.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you. Thank you. I'm a little sad that Brooks didn't, like, fly across the stage.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, we gotta rig him up for the next live show. Like a Peter Pan at a. At a theater show. Just have them crash.

[Mike Wright]

This court's out of order.

[Jason Moore]

Now, bold predictions, that means they're guaranteed to come true, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah. That's what makes them so bold. That's why they will be reflected perfectly in our rankings. We'll get there, sir.

[Jason Moore]

All right, who wants to go first with a ridiculously bold prediction for 2019?

[Mike Wright]

I think the beginning of the end should start at the beginning.

[Andy Holloway]

We'll get there round two, but I'll kick it off.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, okay.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll kick it off. Here we go. Juju Smith Schuster, a star has been born and he's going supernova. Well, just in a cool way, not in, like, a literal way, not the scientific, scientific way, because that would be, like, the end. But here's the thing. JuJu Smith Schuster finishes this season as the number one wide receiver in fantasy football. I see. Here's the thing. I was asked weeks ago, I was asking people like, can I even do that? Because I even legal. I don't even feel like it's spicy. Like, he has such good odds of finishing at the number one wide receiver position. Here's how.

[Jason Moore]

Not so much Vegas odds.

[Mike Wright]

I feel like when he was based.

[Jason Moore]

On yardage numbers that I saw, he.

[Mike Wright]

Was, like, doing an Alex Rodriguez with the mirror. Like, is this a spicy take, Jason?

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Mike Wright]

No. And then he gave himself a smooch.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you darn right high five. And a little kiss on the mirror every morning. That's my routine. Here's the thing. First of all, there's a couple of reasons why I believe this. He has a quarterback that can do it. He has the targets, the touchdowns. Those three reasons are why he's Going to be able to do it. Look at Big Ben. Big Ben over the last six seasons, five seasons, has averaged 4,800 yards and 32 touchdowns. That's his 16 game pace over the last half decade. Now Antonio Brown is gone and crazy. He's gone. But remember his fantasy finishes 4, 2, 3. These are his ranks on the season one one. That means first six like he is. Obviously everyone talks about Antonio Brown as the goat of this last decade. He is great and I'm not trying to take anything away from Brown. But I am saying that Ben Roethlisberger factually can support a talented wide receiver to become the number one. We know that without like that's not up for debate. He's done it twice and every year a top six option. So he's already got the quarterback in tow that can focus on him. Then you look at touchdowns and this is really what it comes down to for me. You, if you want to finish at number one in wide receiver, you have to to have double digit touchdowns. In fact, you're talking about 12.6 touchdowns per season over the last five years. Tyreek Hill, 2018, 12 touchdowns. Hopkins 13 touchdowns. Jordy 14 touchdowns. Antonio Brown twice 10 and 13. And Demarius Thomas, 14 touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

I miss you, Demarius.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I know, right? You have to score a bunch of touchdowns. So who can get that high? Who out there? Obviously Hopkins could do it. Devonte Adams can do it.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Tyreek Hill can do it.

[Jason Moore]

Beckham, Evans.

[Andy Holloway]

Beckham might. Evans can get up there with touchdowns. But Julio? Probably not Michael Thomas, probably not Antonio Brown with Derek Carr, probably not. Obviously Juju could. Because of Big Ben. Juju had seven touchdowns last year and was tackled within the two yard line five times. I mean, that's already 12. And now you have 15 vacated touchdowns from Antonio Brown. But I get it. You're like, well, he can't go up. Oh yeah. Is that the Vance dance?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. The vacated touchdowns made me think of Vance.

[Andy Holloway]

I love it. I love it. He'll get his too. I'm not saying he gets 15 more touchdowns to juju, but why not?

[Mike Wright]

But it's the bold prediction.

[Andy Holloway]

He gets 22 total touchdowns. You heard it here first.

[Jason Moore]

No, I know for a fact I've been around you far too often. I've heard this percolating in you for months where you just believe that juju could end up number one. Which is not something that I believe.

[Andy Holloway]

He's super delicious. He's super talented.

[Mike Wright]

Super delicious.

[Andy Holloway]

He is super talented. You know, and the thing is Is you go, well, he can't go up from last year. He had 166 targets. Where's it going to go? Well, Antonio Brown over the last five years averaged 181 target pace.

[Jason Moore]

I see you wrote in here. So yes, he can.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you, Andy. That is to me now you fell into the trap. You said, yes, he can.

[Mike Wright]

Don't forget to say, yes, he can.

[Andy Holloway]

That's right. So yes. JuJu Smith Schuster, 2019 wide receiver, number one.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, Mike, you're up.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, all right. Austin Ekeler finishes 2019 as a top 12 running back. Yes. Yes. Someone drafted Austin Eckler and we're on the same team. We all know the situation for Austin Eckler. Melvin Gordon, he's a little bit disgruntled. And here's the we, we don't know for sure. How long can Melvin Gordon hold out? Contractually, it might be eight games, it might be 10 games. Let's say that he holds out 10 games. The Los Angeles Chargers, at that point, maybe they're in the playoff hunt, maybe they aren't. But maybe a player comes back and even though he can help the team, the team says, screw you, you aren't coming back as the starting running back. You are now behind our starting running back.

[Jason Moore]

That's official legalese. That's what they would put in the document.

[Mike Wright]

I'm just taking the stroll down narrative street, man. The storefronts are lovely. You should join me every once in a while. Austin Eckler is a good player. Great pass catcher. Second in yards after the catch last year, third in yards per reception, fifth in yards per target. Can the. Can the team like, that's the worry. Oh, if Melvin Gordon's gone, the Los Angeles Chargers, they're not good. Okay. Games with Gordon, they average 27 points a game. How many points did they average in the four games that Gordon missed? 27 points, similar number. The offense was fine games without Gordon, including the. When Gordon went down with the Injury, Eckler averaged 7.75 targets a game, almost eight targets a game, 11 carries. You're talking 19 opportunities a game for Austin Ekeler. He scored a rushing touchdown in two of those four games where Melvin Gordon was gone. Austin Ekeler is the starting running back for this team. Sure, it could shake out that Justin Jackson eats in and now it's a 50, 50 timeshare.

[Jason Moore]

You're not banking on Echler scoring anyway, right? I mean, that's. Well, I mean, that's not the key to the pass catching volume. The Touches for Eckler are far more important. You're not looking at him like LeGarrett. Blunt has to fall into the end zone to get value, Right?

[Mike Wright]

We just did our top 10 tips and tricks, and I talked. I highlighted top 10 running back. They always have 50 or more receptions, and there's usually two wild cards who sneak in. Austin Eckler fits that bill. If Melvin Gordon is gone for the majority of the season, he will easily, easily see more than 50 receptions. And it's not like this team with Philip Rivers hasn't seen a small running back, a small stature guy, have success. Remember Danny Woodhead, the Heartstone? He just. Yeah, the original.

[Andy Holloway]

The original just at the end of.

[Mike Wright]

The year, just kept popping up as the running back one. And each year you go, well, why is Danny Woodhead here? Austin Eckler could be the new Danny Woodhead.

[Jason Moore]

There are always a couple every year. James White, Tariq Cohen. Last year, echler. With Gordon, seven games inside the top 24. It's interesting and it. The weird thing is, is if Keenan Allen. I mean, right now, we think he's fine. People are drafting him like he's fine. But if that injury cropped up. You already lost Tyrell. Mike Williams isn't necessarily a volume type of receiver. No more Antonio Gates. It's interesting then.

[Mike Wright]

Eckler's seen 10 targets.

[Jason Moore]

Bold, probably wrong, but very interesting.

[Andy Holloway]

Probably we're here to be bold, but it is spicy and I love it.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I'll give you mine. The Atlanta Falcons will have a player finish inside the top 12 at every single fantasy football position in 2017. There were two teams that did it last year. Two teams did it. It was Kansas City. It was Pittsburgh, Right?

[Andy Holloway]

Correct.

[Jason Moore]

Shout out to Big Ben again.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I've heard this prediction before.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, because you made it on this show last, but you picked the wrong team. You did more of like an over four. But the Falcons. I don't think anybody debates the merits of Matt Ryan being in the top 12, kid.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm just saying I do not stand for Matt Ryan.

[Jason Moore]

12 of 16 weeks last year, Matt Ryan was in the top 12 finish on that week alone.

[Mike Wright]

I'm told that's good.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's pretty decent because he finished the year at the top of the position. So I don't want to get into it. We don't got time for it.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

We'll deal with it in counseling. Julio Jones, you want to debate that one, too?

[Andy Holloway]

No, no, no. He's. He's gonna be in.

[Jason Moore]

So then you're really talking about Devonta Freeman, who's being drafted at RB15 right now, climbing into the top 12. You have to bank on health with Devonta Freeman, which is not. You don't really want to have to do that. But the last two times he had full 16 game seasons, he was well within that range. He was at 13, RB13 when he played a shortened 2017 season. 14 games still finished at RB13. The competition behind Devonta Freeman is. It's almost as bad as it is behind Duke Johnson.

[Andy Holloway]

It's as bad as Edo Smith.

[Jason Moore]

And we. I know you're not going to argue.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, we are with these three. We're in lockstep now.

[Jason Moore]

The player. Then here's where it gets. Yeah. Now you have to talk about Austin Hooper.

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Jason Moore]

Which is not fun to talk about.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Jason Moore]

Austin Hoover wakes up in the morning, he goes into his bathro and there's a picture of Jason Whitten in the corner of the mirror. And that's a great aspiration right Today, Whitten.

[Mike Wright]

Today's the day.

[Jason Moore]

It's crazy. Austin Hooper has been really, really Jason Whitney, as in fine, as in, does enough throughout the season on a consistent basis to just kind of find himself in that top range. He actually has the best reception percentage of any tight end in football since the start of 2016. Believe it or not, 77% of the balls thrown his way, he catches them. Last year he had six weeks where he finished inside the top seven at the tight end position. So it's never been sexy to play Austin Hooper and it never will be. Just like Jason Whitten. But I think he could climb his way in. So that's why I think the Falcons could have four of them in the top 12.

[Andy Holloway]

I think that's good. All right. Now let's talk about a great prediction gone wrong. This would be my prediction last year. The beginning of the end for the New England Patriots. I apologize. I apologize. The beginning of the end for the super bowl champion New England Patriots last year. So they did. They are the super bowl champions. So here's the thing. Thing as to why I say is great. It's a great call. Okay.

[Jason Moore]

I remember when you, Jason Moore, said that.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. So here's the thing. The reason this whole thing started. Every year I predict my fantasy team that I think is overdrafted and is going to bust for fantasy. In 2016, it was the Carolina Panthers. Cam and Kelvin Benjamin were going way too high. They both failed on the season in 2017. Terrell Pryor, the Washington Redskins, you had Terrell Pryor, Jordan Reed, Jameson Crowder, Rob Kelly, all going six round and ahead and they pretty much all busted that year. Last year was the Patriots and because it was the Patriots, I took the narrative street. That is the beginning of the end. Whoops. But for fantasy, Gronk was in the second, Hogan was in the fourth, Josh Gordon was in the fourth, Brady was in the fifth and Rex Burkhead was in the sixth. They busted. They were not good. So for fantasy, the bold prediction of you don't want to draft these players was right. And so my team this year, you will not like what I have to say.

[Mike Wright]

You are correct. I don't like it.

[Andy Holloway]

People love this team and I'm going to take a dump on it. The Cleveland Brown. So, so sorry. Everyone's new sweetheart. But look, Andy, you said, you said, right? The last couple years there's only been two teams that have had a quarterback, a running back, a wide receiver, a tight end finish in as a one. Well, that the Cleveland Browns right now are being drafted that way. I mean in Joku, Baker, Chubb and Beckham, they're all being drafted to finish as a one. Now is the Cleveland Browns. If for them to return value, the only way that they return value is that they are a great offense. And now I'm not saying they can't be a great offense. Like I love Baker. This hurts me because Baker's just dude I want. Baker would be such a cool best friend.

[Mike Wright]

Oh yes, he would.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm on team Baker. But Baker's being drafted as the fourth quarterback. He has not proven anything yet. Odell Beckham is on a new team. And when I was going through the top 10 tips and tricks lists about avoiding risk in the first round, I realized that the last two years the same guys being drafted in the first round, that's busted both years. It was Odell Beckham. He has not been a model of health. He's played fewer games than Sammy Watkins and they were drafted in the same year. Nick Chubb is a great talent. He looks unbelievable. Kareem Hunt is coming back this season and he, he played half of last season and he was the running back 11. I'm just saying there's a lot more risk. Like they are the sexy team, they are the anti Austin Hooper. Like everyone wants to get on board with the coolness of Baker, myself included. But as a fantasy analyst, I go, they haven't done it yet. They have a head coach that's unproven. They have an organization that is historically Mismanaged.

[Jason Moore]

They have a tough division.

[Andy Holloway]

They have a tough division. Thank you. So I'm just saying, I think that the Browns are my. Like they're overpriced.

[Mike Wright]

They're the end.

[Jason Moore]

So just be aware. Figure out the super bowl bets right now because they might win the super all on the Browns. Cause maybe they'll win the super bowl and you'll be right.

[Andy Holloway]

If they win the super bowl, just wait for next year's team and bet big.

[Jason Moore]

Bet the Cardinals over and over for my sake. All right, two more and then we're going to do our live mailbag.

[Mike Wright]

Speaking of Cardinals, we're in Phoenix, Arizona.

[Andy Holloway]

3.

[Mike Wright]

You should probably let me finish. We are three children of the valley of the sun. Yes, we are die hard Arizona Cardinal.

[Jason Moore]

Fans wear Charles for life.

[Mike Wright]

We wear it on our sleeve. I know that there's some other jerseys sprinkled throughout here, but you heard it. We are mostly in Arizona Cardinal country. We're very excited. We're very excited for the Arizona Cardinals. We're not going to win the super bowl this year. I'm sorry to break it to everybody and I have to preface my bold prediction with that because it kind of will hurt it. It's. It's interdivisional. Cooper cup is going to lead the league in touchdown receptions this year. Cooper cup has only played in 23 of the possible 32 games that he has been in or since he's been in the league. And in that time he has the seventh most red zone receptions that he is 10th in broken tackles and he is sixth in in yards after catch of qualified wide receivers. Cooper cup is really freaking good. Last year he basically played full snaps in five games. Five. He was on pace to score 12 touchdowns in the. He is. He's on an unbelievable offense. He is the primary red zone option. In the last two years, Jared Goff has thrown 46 touchdowns in the red zone. That's the most in the league. Five and a half red zone attempts per game for Jared Goff. That's right there with Tom Brady, Andrew Luck. Rip rip. Yes. Rest in peace. And Patrick Mahomes still so crazy. It's real fresh. But here we are. We have to move on. Cooper caught. It's like it's crazy for me to be endorsing this player who's coming off of an ACL tear. But 2019 is apparently just a wild year with Andrew Luck retiring, Emmanuel Sanders returning from an injury that nobody returns from, and Cooper cup entered training camp all systems go and has looked nothing but spectacular. In camp.

[Jason Moore]

Todd Gurley has 46 touchdowns in the last four years for the Rams, including 17 last year, 13 the year prior. If you believe in an adjustment to the offensive philosophy for his health sake, then maybe you turn to Cup Everett, you know, cooks around the goal line, not necessarily a target.

[Mike Wright]

Right?

[Jason Moore]

So it's interesting. Exceptionally spicy, the ACL tear as people afraid. You get Jake Glazer coming out and saying he looks better than ever before, which I have not normally said about an ACL tear. So it's interesting. How confident are you?

[Mike Wright]

It's the bold take show.

[Jason Moore]

I know.

[Mike Wright]

I'm like, super confident. Unbelievably confident.

[Jason Moore]

Number one in your rankings.

[Mike Wright]

Confidence Patriots, beginning of the end, confident.

[Jason Moore]

One more. Yeah, that's super confident. Chris Carson ends the season as a top five fantasy football running back.

[Mike Wright]

Hold on, wait, wait, wait, wait.

[Jason Moore]

A lot of cheers for Chris Carson. Some boos, okay?

[Andy Holloway]

People.

[Mike Wright]

People were like, yeah, you know, we're kind of on board with Cooper cup, but running back in the division, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So when I look at Chris Carson, Fairway fans, there are two players that I'm just insane excited about this year. Chris Carson is one of them. Sonny Michelle is the other one. And now you can take them both at, like, third and fourth round in a lot of leagues. So if you wanted to go wide receiver, wide receiver, you could. Is it a leap to say that Chris Carson could be a top five running back over the course of the season last year, number seven in the league in total rushing attempts on the season, despite missing two games on the season, number five in rushing yardage for the whole season. And all this speculation about what if, what if he catches more passes. He seems to have a clear lead on Rashad Penny that has only grown over the course of this entire preseason. From week 11 on last year. So seven full games to end the season. He averaged 19.4 carries a game. On a team that runs more than anybody else. Your eyebrows, Mike, they just rose. That's a lot of carries, 93 yards a game. That's a 311 carry pace. That's a 1495 rushing yard pace. That's a 16 touchdown pace. He was the number four running back in that span behind, like, Saquon McCaffrey and then the great, wonderful Derrick Henry to end the year. So multiple times last year on this season where he did that, he wasn't even targeted at all. I mean, there were five different games that he played in where he had a lot of carries, never even got targeted.

[Mike Wright]

He's got the best hands.

[Jason Moore]

The reports around that all you need to do is pepper in one or two more targets. Given that kind of workload, you know what that team wants to do. So it's bold because he's being drafted as the RB18 right now by fantasy owners, but I think he finishes top five.

[Andy Holloway]

How is DK Metcalf doing right now?

[Jason Moore]

Poorly.

[Andy Holloway]

How is David Moore doing right now?

[Mike Wright]

Poorly.

[Andy Holloway]

They're going to need to throw to someone other than Tyler Lockett. So I. I like this and it was weird to me. Andy. So you gave the. The. From week 11 on, it was a decent enough sample size and his post.

[Jason Moore]

Post buy.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. It was a pace of 311. But if you actually look at it was week three when he took over. He didn't even carry count. If you go from week three on, which is pretty much a season sample size, he was still a 312 carry pace. He's going to get an enormous amount of work. It's just a matter of will he be involved in the passing game if he stay healthy.

[Jason Moore]

But that's the requirement for anybody to finish in the top five. You've got to stay healthy. So I think that rounds out the bold predictions. I think we're going to get into the mailbag. I hope you're going to bring it. We're going to get the microphone set up. Warm the voices up.

[Andy Holloway]

Final one of the year, Phoenix. Final mailbag. Drop of the year, Phoenix.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know how prepared they are.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you hear him? Get the lights. Get the house lights. Mailbag of the year.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you.

[Andy Holloway]

There are no house lights. Okay.

[Mike Wright]

All right, call the fire marshal.

[Jason Moore]

You guys ready? Here we go.

[Andy Holloway]

Mailbag.

[Jason Moore]

That was just a calm before the storm. That was pretty good.

[Andy Holloway]

First question.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's jump into the mailbag.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, what a shirt.

[Jason Moore]

Give us your name.

[Mike Wright]

Talking to Mike.

[Andy Holloway]

John.

[Jason Moore]

Lift the mic up just a little bit. Let's do it like that.

[Mike Wright]

What's your name, buddy?

[Jason Moore]

John Stiles. What's up?

[Andy Holloway]

So nice to meet you.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Jason Moore]

Likewise. So we in my draft it's 04 point per yard. And so. Okay, how I was trying to see how should I. How does that affect my rank going.

[Andy Holloway]

In my draft tomorrow?.04 point per yard. Are you talking about receiving and rushing? Are you talking about quarterbacks?

[Jason Moore]

Quarterbacks.

[Mike Wright]

It's 0.04 point per yard.04 point per yard. It doesn't change anything. Like we get the question. Oh, quarterbacks get 25 points.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

It doesn't change how you think of when you Draft a quarterback is what you're saying he does. Realign quarterback, sure.

[Mike Wright]

But it, like, it's, oh, we get a point per completion, it just changes out who's at the top. It's not going to change your strategy because every single quarterback is going to drop back and they're going to throw the ball 20 to 25 times. I mean, that's why the streaming of the position is so viable. That's why every year over 40 quarterbacks hit a quarterback one week. And. And it's not like it's.

[Andy Holloway]

What?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I never saw that coming. It's. No. The backup is at home and he's playing against a garbage defense. We can all see it coming a mile away. Well, fantasy players, like NFL people out there, they're always shocked that these backup quarterbacks put up numbers. Meanwhile, fantasy players like, yeah, because that's what they always do. So it might change out, as you.

[Jason Moore]

Say, Matt Ryan, Big Ben. It does change kind of the variance, because quarterbacks, you know, you talk about Matt Ryan bouncing back and forth. That's because of touchdowns, not because of yard, what, eight straight years of 4,000 yards or whatever he has.

[Andy Holloway]

So just rearrange the quarterbacks to focus on those that have a lot of passing. Do you, Mr. Styles? Oh, do you have an ultimate draft Shameless plug? Well, then there you go, dude. Just plug in your scoring system into the UDK and then we'll organize it for you.

[Jason Moore]

Gotcha. Next problem solved.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you, sir. Your name is amazing.

[D]

Hi, guys.

[Jason Moore]

How you going?

[D]

Hi, I'm Linda Neville.

[Andy Holloway]

Nice to meet you, Linda.

[D]

I'm so excited to be here. My question is on my Harry Potter League, due to a series of unfortunate circumstances, my first pick was number 24.

[Jason Moore]

What?

[Andy Holloway]

So the sorting hat hates you.

[Mike Wright]

24.

[D]

So is this a situation when you would pick a quarterback first or what would your strategy be when that's your first pick?

[Jason Moore]

No, it actually pushes me the opposite direction if that's your first pick because you're now at a lower tier of running backs and they run out quick. So I'd be looking to get the court. I mean, I'd have to go late round for the quarterback in that situation, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, you've got to stack running backs and wide receivers as much as you can for as long as you can because you know that at the very end of the draft, you can take a Josh Allen at quarterback and you'll be fine. Don't waste an early pick because you don't have them.

[D]

I know. I guess I wasn't I was thinking you would say it wouldn't change it. It's just there was Mahomes and all they had picked so far was running backs and wide receivers.

[Andy Holloway]

Has this already.

[D]

This is over.

[Jason Moore]

This is already.

[D]

So you have to see how badly I.

[Andy Holloway]

You took Mahomes.

[D]

I do have Austin Eckler though.

[Jason Moore]

This thing.

[Mike Wright]

Were you seeking approval? Oh, okay.

[Jason Moore]

So wait, hold on.

[D]

I knew I failed after I had clicked on.

[Jason Moore]

Not necessarily though. I understand.

[Mike Wright]

I understand.

[Andy Holloway]

It happens.

[Jason Moore]

You have Austin Eckler. What, what are your other running backs? Out of curiosity, in a league where you took Mahomes.

[D]

I know I have Dee Dee Westbrook. I can't remember that. My whole list of.

[Jason Moore]

So you have Austin Eckler. Okay.

[D]

I got a bunch of breakout picks from your kit. So I'm kind of excited about that. My son looked at it, thought it doesn't look too bad. So.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I mean I, I hope one of the breakout picks that you did get.

[D]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Which we just pulled tonight was not Marlon Mack.

[D]

No, not having Marlon Mack.

[Jason Moore]

So by the way, it's, it's awesome to have Patrick Mahomes. I think that gets lost.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

In a sea of late round quarterback discussion. It's super cool. I had him last year in a bunch of leagues. I loved it. I was a big fan. The thing that gets, you know, having a great quarterback is what you want in fantasy. It just puts you in a position where you need to hit on the later draft picks more consistently. And because fantasy football is so, so much variation, injury, and we said, we talk about stacking running back, stacking wide receivers to protect against injury, to protect against variance. It just puts you in a position where you have to hit on them later. It doesn't mean that you failed the draft to have Patrick Mahomes. It means you got the best quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

In football and win the waiver wire. If I was in that position, the draft that may or may not have.

[D]

Happened, it could happen again.

[Mike Wright]

I'm. Yeah, you know, honestly, I am. I'm stacking up wide receivers early because the wide receivers going in that range, they're going to produce. Maybe you hit on one or two of them and they jump into that elite category. But that the running backs later on they gain value as the season goes along. You just, you see it happen because of injury. So I'm going to, because I don't have early picks, I'm going to take the more sure thing to know that I'm scoring points every week and make.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure that the Tony Pollard's Justin Jackson's, that none of them are on the waiver wire.

[Jason Moore]

Right, Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Because you could. You could scoop them up, have a starting running back week one.

[D]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you so much. You're so welcome, Linda. Next question.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, here. Here comes a man eater.

[Jason Moore]

What's up?

[Mike Wright]

For those who can't see, he's. He's wearing a Hole in Oats shirt.

[Jason Moore]

I thought that was something for just like, really tall people were man eaters or something. I didn't know what that meant. I can't go for that.

[Mike Wright]

The one Hollow Notes song he doesn't like, I referenced.

[Jason Moore]

I'm sorry, great question. How do you guys families feel about fantasy football? Like, do kids play it, your wives play it? Well, that's a great question. Because today, what timing. Today, both my boys who are here drafted their first teams. They drafted their first teams, and much like Linda, I let them find their way through. Aaron Rodgers in the first, Patrick Mahomes in the second for one of them. But no, I mean, I think they've rallied around it. One of the things that we love about fantasy football is the fact that it can be very inclusive of the family if you make it that way. You know, when we started the show, it was about, hey, how do you not just win, but have fun? Create a league that's fun with great people. And that includes, like, not running off to the basement to watch football while your family does something else. I mean, so it's been very fun for them. Obviously, I get paid to do fantasy, so it's changed my wife's perspective from what it was before I did this. But, no, it's been good for our family.

[Andy Holloway]

My. My wife, my children right now, they currently don't. They don't participate. I don't think they. You know, my wife will never participate in fantasy football. So if you're out there and you've got someone like that, I highly recommend starting a successful fantasy football podcast. Because, honey, I'm working.

[Mike Wright]

My wife. I convinced her one time to join a fantasy football league. I managed the crap out of that team.

[Andy Holloway]

How'd she do?

[Mike Wright]

She did very well. Awesome.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, thanks. Hollow Oats.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you, sir.

[Andy Holloway]

Next question.

[Mike Wright]

Hello, sir. State your name. Dan Kerber. Hey, Dan.

[Jason Moore]

What's up, Dan. How you doing?

[Andy Holloway]

To meet you, Dan.

[Mike Wright]

So nice to meet you guys. All right, my question is, what strategy.

[Jason Moore]

Adjustments do you make for a massive.

[Mike Wright]

Redraft tournament like the Mega Laborer? Oh, insider trading.

[Jason Moore]

How do you think about a big tournament like that?

[Mike Wright]

You gotta. You think you play to Win. And by when I say that sounds ridiculous, but you, I mean, you got to win your league. But then at the end you're going to have to be putting up so many points. And so I'll just give you one quick tip. We talk about on the show, we don't like handcuffing number one because it's unpredictable. There are some that are though. Dalvin Cook. I'm fairly confident that Alexander Madison. Alexander Madison will be his handcuff if something were to happen. Dalvin Cook. If I draft Dalvin Cook in that league, I'm not drafting Alexander Madison. I'm drafting Chase Edmonds. I'm drafting Malcolm Brown. I'm drafting guys that if something works out against those players now my team transforms from great to incredible. You have, you have to stack up those players that can really turn the, turn the nitro on halfway through the year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And there's players like Leonard Fournette, guys that look there. You always say they would be great if they stayed healthy, but that's why they're cheaper in the draft. Look, the only single person. I think we're up to 4,500 people in the Megalobol right now. You can get [e-mail] for another week, but you've got. Your team is going to be healthy like the winners team. Congratulations. They drafted healthy players and, and they didn't deal with a bunch of wacky injuries in a, you know, like you can deal with that in a league of 12. You can't deal with that in a league of 4,500.

[Jason Moore]

Yep, fair enough.

[Andy Holloway]

Thanks.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you, sir.

[Andy Holloway]

Final question.

[Mike Wright]

I know what that means.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah, Ballers.

[Mike Wright]

Do you know what that means? What's your name first?

[Jason Moore]

My name is Ricardo Harding.

[Mike Wright]

Hello, sir. Nice to meet you.

[Jason Moore]

Ricardo is the winner of the David Johnson. Well, you teased it so soon. You didn't let us break the news. That's on you.

[Mike Wright]

That's not on me. Thank you to Pristine Austin.

[Jason Moore]

I'm just happy he's not wearing a Seattle jersey like the last 10 things we've given away.

[Andy Holloway]

Ricardo, what is your favorite NFL team.

[Mike Wright]

Before you talk, sir. Eagles.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, come on.

[Mike Wright]

Boom. Hey, hey, hold on.

[Jason Moore]

I love Quince and I love Miles Sanders.

[Mike Wright]

Remember when David Johnson broke out against the Eagles? That was pretty freaking awesome.

[Andy Holloway]

It was so great. We've got a signed picture in our studio of that moment.

[Mike Wright]

But just a word of wisdom. Microphones pick up your mouth. So the gum, you might want to hold that back. Oh, but your question's good, sir.

[Jason Moore]

So My question is in regards to preseason, which backfield has scared you the most? Scared us the most.

[Mike Wright]

That's a great question.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, for me, no.

[Jason Moore]

Well, you talked about the offensive line.

[Andy Holloway]

Scares me a lot. I actually think that's more towards Matt Ryan than Freeman. Freeman's a great pass catcher. He can leak out and is a great pass protector. So he's going to be in. This is just selfish, purely, you know, blood pressure related. But it's the Lions, right? Like, I've got so much riding on this. I'm like, oh, no. Oh, yes. I mean, I'm so invested in Carryon Johnson. Perfect example here. So, like, today the news, you know, the Lions had a preseason game. They had a preseason game, played some football and I saw a tweet that was talking about how Matthew Stafford was out there for 32 snaps and the snap breakdowns carry on. Johnson had eight and C.J. anderson was like 22 and Ty Johnson was out there a bunch. And so I'm like, honest to goodness, no joke. C.J. anderson was almost my. Today, the. The analogy. He was going to be beats like the vegetable, because I hate them. But. But then I went and I watched the game and what happened is he doesn't need beats. He was, he was early in the game, he was first. He was in on a couple third downs and then they pulled him and he never got back on the field. So that's great news. But that one's been stressing me out. I've been worried. What about you guys? What?

[Jason Moore]

Tampa Bay's backfield looks atrocious. I mean, we were watching the game the other day and it was like, okay, if a player lost three yards on the carry, and then it was Peyton Barber, if the player lost five yards on the carry a minute was Ronald Jones.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

So that backfield concerns me tremendously because we're trying to scrape and find value, especially with Bruce Arians and I don't know if you got the player that can do it.

[Mike Wright]

Sure. And on the throw, I'll throw out Chicago because they aren't playing. We have. They're giving us nothing. They're not giving us the insight into, okay, we can actually have the freak out that David Montgomery got the first eight snaps and then it was Mike Davis and Tariqo and they, they aren't, they aren't pulling a Wizard of Oz and showing us behind the curtain.

[Jason Moore]

So that is that you get skittish about that.

[Mike Wright]

It's a little sketch. Well, you're paying a fourth round, maybe a third round pick for David Montgomery. So that's the backfield that has me a little squeamish.

[Andy Holloway]

The other one that's less selfish just from what I've seen that has me a little worried would be the Bengals with Joe Mixon. Their offensive line has looked as bad as advertised or as worried with the injuries. They, you know, the amount of offensive miscues and holdings and like it's either they, they have a successful run because there was holding on it and it gets called back or they didn't hold. So Joe Mixon has nowhere to run. That's concerning. That's like what we saw with Todd Gurley a couple years ago when he went from his rookie year and he was great. This next year he had nowhere to run and everyone's calling him a bum.

[Jason Moore]

All right, congratulations on the big win.

[Mike Wright]

Even though you're signed. David Johnson helmet.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you.

[Mike Wright]

Pristine Auction.

[Jason Moore]

That is going to wrap up this episode of the show. Again, big shout out to Pristine Auction, our studio sponsor, our tour partner. If you haven't checked out, Pristine Auction head over there, pristineauction.com and again, big thanks to St. Jude. This is the wrap up of the whole tour. This is it. Back home, football is starting. It's going to be a lot of fun. Thank you Phoenix, so much.

[Mike Wright]

And if you're listening at home, we'll see you on Tuesday. Hope you crushed your draft. I'm sure you did. Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Foreign thank you for listening to another edition of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Don't forget to visit us on the web at www.thefantasyfootballers.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.

[Jason Moore]

All right, today's episode was brought to you by Head and Shoulders and Walmart. No matter where you fall on the offense and defense debate, Head and Shoulders will give you a 100% flake free scalp. I say it's offense, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

I say it's defense.

[Jason Moore]

Did you know that Troy Polamalu's hair was insured for $1 million by Head and Shoulders in 2010? Check out head and [e-mail] or you can look and find it at your local Walmart store.