
Fantasy Football Podcast for July 12th, 2018. On today’s show, we debut a new segment called Meat on the Bone. What can we expect from players who received big workloads for fantasy football last year but left a much to be desired? We’ll also discuss
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Andy Holloway
Foot Clan, assemble. We need you. We need you right now. You got to check out footclan vote.com go nominate the fantasy footballers for sports and rec and the people's Choice Awards from podcast awards.com youm're really gonna help us out. We need you. We need you to come through Foot clan. We need that three peep tis like too secure. The best of all time. FootClan Vote.com.
Jason Moore
Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast coming to you from Draft.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.
Mike Wright
Oh, are you okay?
Andy Holloway
He's texting. I know.
Mike Wright
Jason was texting in the middle of it.
Jason Moore
Multitasking sources and you gave some breaking news general managers. I'll get back to you guys on that a little bit.
Mike Wright
Wow.
Andy Holloway
Hey, babe, what's. What are we eating for dinner?
Mike Wright
Welcome in.
Andy Holloway
That was so hyped and Jason's over here texting.
Jason Moore
I was falling asleep.
Mike Wright
I think he just bark randomly and contribute.
Jason Moore
I was falling asleep and then Andy and you hyped me up and then I got involved.
Mike Wright
I gave some shouts Thursday.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, you mailed it in. I heard it.
Mike Wright
Thursday, July 12, 2018 show 556. Five hundred and sorry. Thanks, Brooks. 566. Goodness. Goodness. Welcome in. Great, great show ahead.
Andy Holloway
Great to be here.
Mike Wright
It's going so well. So far, so great. Quick question. A fun new segment for today's show that we're going to get into. I promise you this, you'll be smarter at the end. You'll have a better chance of winning your Fantasy League in 2018 and you'll have fun. Fair. Fair.
Jason Moore
Oh, what a promise.
Mike Wright
Quick question of the day from Twitter. This one comes in from Clinton Bryan's. Hey ballers, good day from Australia.
Andy Holloway
Bonjour.
Mike Wright
Any tips on how you evaluate a player's trade value in a Dynasty league? Thanks. Love your work.
Andy Holloway
Certainly there's so many aspects that go into a dynasty trade. You got a age, contract situation, projection of that player's overall career. Are they ascending? Are they already at. Have they already hit their ceiling or are they still on their way up? And how does it, how does it help in, in effect your team? Because in Dynasty you might make a trade that on paper or you plug into a calculator of some kind and say, well, you've lost. You've lost the trade. You did not get fair value, but you actually won because you took an asset and you improved your team where you needed some help.
Jason Moore
Yeah, I think dynasty leagues as much or more than other leagues are team dependent when it comes to trades because, you know, if you're in a redraft league, Everybody's goal is 100% the same. Your goal is to win a championship this year. But in a dynasty league, you might have fallen into a, you know, a bad stretch where your team isn't that good and you have to go into rebuild mode. So you can't always value trades based on, you know, those, those paper calculator type number things because you are either building for the future or you're going for that championship this year. And I think know your strategy as an owner and accept that and don't be worried about, you know, I still.
Mike Wright
Keep it very short term in dynasty trades. Sure. In terms of my interpretation of the deal because maybe this is a bad analogy or example, but probably, you know how you have, like on a battlefield, you've got one side, they have all the archers up on the wall, and you have Demi Lovato and you've got the other side that are running no fields.
Andy Holloway
It was American Idol. I made the wrong reference.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Dang it, man.
Mike Wright
So you've got all the archers up on the wall.
Andy Holloway
Okay.
Mike Wright
Then you've got a field full of soldiers running towards the castle. I feel like dynasty and the NFL is such that, you know, you know, only some percentage of those players are going to make it to two, three, four years of relevance.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I got you.
Mike Wright
And to the wall right there. A lot of guys just fall down. In a couple years ago, trading Freddie Lacy looked like the smartest thing you can do in dynasty trading for certain players that have either been hurt or fallen off the map. I mean, Jeremy Hill even, right. Like, looks like a gray dynasty asset. The next Marshawn Lynch. Well, only a few of these players make it. And so I look very short term and try to take advantage of that because I've seen players invest big money, metaphorically speaking, big trade capital for rookie wide receivers that two year. I mean, Rashad Perryman was traded five times in our league for more value than he'll ever be worth.
Andy Holloway
Right.
Jason Moore
More value than he ever had in the NFL. I will say this.
Andy Holloway
Jordan Sparks, we got there.
Jason Moore
Okay.
Mike Wright
That's the reference. Now, I don't get what you were doing.
Jason Moore
Battlefield, okay.
Mike Wright
She sings that song and you wanted to hijack my entire.
Andy Holloway
I did.
Mike Wright
Okay.
Andy Holloway
I saved it till the end. The recovery let you finish.
Jason Moore
So on that note, I will say this. What you can do as another tip in dynasty leagues is you can very often cheaply acquire elder statesman people that have. They've made A home at the wall. They've been at that wall for a while. You're not worried about the archer because, you know, Larry Fitzgerald's good, but people don't want Larry Fitzgerald in a dynasty league anymore. People don't want these guys that have one year left. Marshawn lynch has very little value. So if you're a contending team, try to give, you know, try to get one of these type of guys for a second round pick or something where you could contend and put your team over the top for a championship.
Mike Wright
I won several games last year on my way to a title leaning on Adrian Peterson in Arizona.
Andy Holloway
Right.
Mike Wright
So it can't happen. Your point is, is. Is there? Okay. You can find us on twitter @the ffballers. Follow Jason @jason ffl. Follow me at andy holloway. Follow Mike @ff hitman. Still unverified always, but verified in my heart.
Andy Holloway
Oh, that's a big upgrade. That's a red check mark.
Mike Wright
You want to know something? I got a feeling, Mike.
Andy Holloway
Oh, do you?
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
What's your feeling?
Mike Wright
I think you're gonna be verified very soon. Oh, I just feel like the winds are swirling the right direction.
Andy Holloway
I can't wait to tell them to take their blue check mark and.
Mike Wright
Oh, you're gonna reject it.
Andy Holloway
Stick it right next to my name.
Jason Moore
Yeah, that's the mic.
Mike Wright
I know. Follow us on YouTube. YouTube.com the Fancy Footballers. You can click the bell and then you'll get a notification when we go live with a special event. Things like that. Our Minnesota live show. We did that on YouTube. You would have been. You would have been notified.
Andy Holloway
Very happy.
Mike Wright
Yeah. And then our community has joined the Foot.com where you can join thousands of other listeners to form great leagues. Get access to exclusive content, bonus episodes every week. Every single week. And it's a lot of fun. We built this show. We built this show on rock and roll. We built this show so that you'd enjoy your league. So we want the community. And that was pretty good, Jay. See, the confidence you had in that was so much different than your mailbag drop.
Jason Moore
Well, that's because I went in my falsetto, which is awesome.
Mike Wright
What's the mailbag drop?
Andy Holloway
Yeah. You realize that's how I do it.
Jason Moore
But I've never realized that.
Mike Wright
What did you think he's singing?
Andy Holloway
You think I can sing that high?
Jason Moore
I thought you could. I did not realize you were going False because you've got some grumbles to it. My faults, there's no grumbles. It's just clean and smooth.
Andy Holloway
You sound like the Dr. Pepper guy.
Jason Moore
Oh, it's a sweet one. Yeah. All right, well, maybe. Maybe the next time Mike. Maybe the next time Mike's out of town, I'll mailbag and I'll hit it with my faust.
Mike Wright
All right, well, let's get into the news.
Jason Moore
News and notes from around the league and all the jokes over.
Andy Holloway
We were riding so high and honestly, I really. I wanted. I'll take this because I have some. I just have my. Take that I want to give and I will.
Mike Wright
I'll toss it to you. All I was going to say was I. I dreamed a dream. Okay, so here's of an offseason that didn't have. Yeah, this news and notes segment.
Andy Holloway
The. The big news is the LaShawn McCoy news. I'm sure you. Most of you have heard it by now. If you haven't, a picture was released on an Instagram account. Also with claim that LaShawn McCoy of Domestic Violence against a girlfriend or ex girlfriend, a child and a dog. I've been asked many, many times what you know, because it's just people wonder like, okay, what's the worst part of your job?
Jason Moore
This.
Andy Holloway
This is the absolute worst part, this job. Because we are a fantasy football show, we have to report on this news. And I get it. People want to know, okay, there's fantasy impacts from this. You're like, how do you, how do you move from that news to, okay, here's some implications for Buffalo. And I understand that you got to make adjustments because it's all part of the game, but this is the thing that really, really sucks. We're just gonna say that there's. There's very little facts out right now. That's what's being alleged. Either way, there's. There's a monster somewhere. Either someone as shady as guilty of something or shady is innocent and being accused of something. There is a monster somewhere. It's a crappy, crappy situation. But that's really all there is to about it right now at this point.
Mike Wright
It is news that there is news coming. I mean, we will find out more information and everybody wants to react, but we don't know a lot. Yeah, we don't know a lot. So we can't do a lot in that regard. And I guess to the fantasy point, I haven't changed anything.
Andy Holloway
Sure.
Mike Wright
I haven't made an adjustment based on that news or lack thereof. But we are going to find out more and we'll report it to you and we'll. We'll walk you through it from the fantasy side. And yeah, it's unfortunate. It really is.
Jason Moore
Maybe next year.
Mike Wright
Maybe next year will be the summer.
Jason Moore
Where none of this news.
Mike Wright
Yeah, the world is a little too broken for that, unfortunately. All right, today we are featuring a little bit.
Andy Holloway
We're gonna get back up. We're gonna get back. Back to the joy.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Mike Wright
Well, the drop you prepared for today's segment is great. And before we do that, I do. I might as well just take a second to thank Pristine Auction today before we get into, well, let's call it the meat of the show.
Andy Holloway
Oh, yes.
Mike Wright
Here's what was auctioned recently on pristineauction.com and by recently, I mean in the last 24 hours. An Adam Thielen signed Vikings Jersey $78 a Tyree Kill signed Chiefs Jersey $43. Demaryius Thomas signed mini helmet, $77 Randall Cobb signed Packers Jersey $72 Lev Bell signed Jersey $68 Mark Ingram $74 Kyle Rudolph. Yeah, you heard me, Jason.
Jason Moore
Oh, man.
Mike Wright
$67 67. One of our listeners sent me a DM yesterday. They said I finally took the plunge, jumped on Pristine Auction. Whoops. I bought seven items.
Andy Holloway
Oh, I've been there because whoops or congrats.
Mike Wright
Yeah, it was a whoops and then a congrats is coming in the mail in two to three days. Look, pristineauction.com is the best place for authentic sports memorabilia at a great price. Hundreds of daily auctions. The sell isn't very difficult. You just go there, you check out awesome gear and you buy the stuff. That's the awesomeness.
Andy Holloway
We got AJ Green beaming, beaming on the wall right now.
Mike Wright
Yeah, it looks good. So that go to pristine auction.com p r I s t I n e auction.com let them know the footballer sent you.
Andy Holloway
And make sure you check out fantasychamps.com the draft season is approaching. We know you got your ultimate draft kit. But if you're doing a live in person draft, go grab a draft board. No better place to get one than right now over@fantasychamps.com and make sure you check out those personalized fantasy jerseys. They are, as Jason would say, sweet. Sweet fantasyjamps.com and you could save a little bit of cash if you use that promo code. Ballers.
Jason Moore
Lay off me.
Andy Holloway
I'm starving.
Mike Wright
It's time to unpack that. Let's unpack it.
Andy Holloway
Have we even given the name of the segment?
Mike Wright
No.
Andy Holloway
The name of the segment is Meat on the Bone.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Andy Holloway
And we're talking about. Lay off me. We're talking about Players who may have left the field hungry.
Mike Wright
Sure.
Andy Holloway
Because they, we talk a lot about, you know, who's over efficient, who's inefficient. And we wanted to focus on, on some guys who were very strong in the inefficient department where you would say.
Mike Wright
They left some meat, they left some meat on the bone.
Jason Moore
You have players always say feed me. You know, Zeke comes out of his tackle, he's like, oh, I'm eating. And these players, they got a Thanksgiving size meal handed to them. But there's a lot, there's a lot left there. They didn't do much with it. And so we can take that for a number of. Depending on the player, the situation we're going to go through. Maybe it shows that that player's efficiency is wrecked because they're on the downturn or they're not that good. Maybe it shows that there's an opportunity in.
Mike Wright
Are they going to eat this year.
Jason Moore
Workload for them or will they replacement? Yeah, this year.
Andy Holloway
And we're, right now we're going to be focusing on the correlation for running backs of touches to fantasy points. It's incredibly strong. I know it seems like a ridiculous thing to. Well, they touch the ball, they get fantasy points. But it's true. I mean you're talking a very, very strong correlation. If you finish in the top 10 of touches, you more than likely have finished in the top 10 of fantasy points. And the same can be said for wide receivers when it comes to targets. Give me that opportunity. Opportunity over talent a lot of times produces more fantasy points. So the first player that I wanted to talk about was the Infinity Stone himself, Frank Gore. Frank Gore had the ninth most touches at the running back position. 290. But he finished 10 spots behind his touch count to finish at 19th for fantasy.
Mike Wright
And now he changes teams.
Andy Holloway
He changes team. And I really wanted more to talk about this situation because there's someone, someone new in town. There is a new sheriff in Indianapolis and we don't know who it is.
Mike Wright
But this is the hole being left by Frank Gore. There was a lot of meat on the bone. 290 touches in Indianapolis, that's being abandoned. That's a lot of touches. And now you have Robert Turbin suspended for four games, Naim Heinz drafted and Marlon Mack coming back.
Jason Moore
Yeah. And with his to attack, you know, you can make the argument that his inefficiencies were due to, you know, his age being 34 years old playing. You know, it's, it's, it's not the easiest thing to play running back. So maybe that's why. But also some of that inefficiency is because the offense was putrid without Andrew Luck. So you've got the volume plus a better situation coming for someone. I believe that someone is Marlon Mack. I think Marlon Mack showed enough on film last year where he was still. People, you know, say, oh, Marlon Mack was inefficient. He was more efficient than his counterpart who got 290 touches in Frank Corr.
Mike Wright
That's pretty normal, though, for. I mean, yeah, if you have 290 touches, you're generally less efficient than the player that receives less than that and has the opportunity to be fresh and doesn't carry the ball on third and, you know, third down when you're winning.
Jason Moore
Fair. But I'm comparing him not just to Frank Gore, but to every running back that was on the roster.
Mike Wright
So for me, the storyline with Frank Gore, with the meat on the bone storyline of Frank Gore, is the absence from Indianapolis is the opportunity vacated, is. It's not Frank Gore. I don't think Frank Gore has a season that impacts fantasy leagues in any way. I mean, no, in Miami, I don't, because one, I believe in Kalen Balaj. Two, I believe that Drake did enough to earn a role. And three, I think Frank Gore is 35 years old. I mean, look, your head coach can come out and say it doesn't matter, but this is his sunset tour. He's going through Miami.
Jason Moore
That's where people go to retire.
Mike Wright
It ended with Fred Jackson did his sunset tour in Seattle. This is just the opposite corner of the United States. And Frank Gore's time is going to be done. I mean, because he's going to come out, he's not going to be half as explosive as either of those two players. Say whatever you want about Cam Blige. He's going to get to run straight. Jason, he will get to run straight. And when he does, he will run it at a speed better than almost any rookie running back and with more power than any rookie running back. And he'll bust off a play that Frank Gore couldn't do if you put him on a motorcycle. So I just think at this point in time, I have Gore at 54, Jason has him at 43. Mike has him at 36. Mike, tell me why Frank Gore is worth a late ride pick.
Andy Holloway
I don't know if I can explain that because all I'm picturing now is Frank Gore being handed the ball, putting a helmet on.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
And jumping motors.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
Like the Kia Commercials.
Mike Wright
That's how he gets straight line speed.
Andy Holloway
Just leaping off the motorcycle. Yeah. Touchdown, baby.
Mike Wright
Evo Knievel.
Jason Moore
So on the.
Andy Holloway
But I have Frank Gore ranked just at the edge of a running back three, and that's based off of touchdowns. The Miami running backs, they weren't scoring a lot on the ground. And I think that Frank Gore can still earn that role. I mean, obviously rankings change over time as we get closer to the season and things are trending heavily for Drake and Bellage. I will make my adjustments, but right now I think they brought Frank Gore in for a reason. And he's. He's a battering ram still. I mean, at 3.9 or whatever it is. Frank Gore, he only got one yard to go.
Jason Moore
Frank Gore.
Mike Wright
3.9 is fine.
Jason Moore
Frank Gore. Greater sign. Greater sign, greater sign. Damian Williams.
Andy Holloway
Sure.
Jason Moore
And they gave Damian Williams a lot of work when Jay Ajai left. Damian Williams is running ahead of Kenyan Drake for some unfathomable reason until he got injured and then Kenyan Drake came. So I do side with Mike in the sense that I think Frank Gore will be involved. He's, you know, a vet they brought in to play a role. But it's going to be a three headed.
Mike Wright
Anybody like Miami this year?
Jason Moore
No. As a team or fantasy options?
Mike Wright
As a team. Because we're going to transition to talking about, well, yeah, Miami. I'm just saying, none of us. I think that they're going to be a team that's going to get the opportunity to run the ball as much as they'd hope and like.
Jason Moore
Sure.
Mike Wright
And that's what happened to Isaiah Crowell, our next player on the Meat on the bones segment. Isaiah Grewell last year, 15th in touches.
Andy Holloway
Yes.
Mike Wright
30Th in fantasy finish.
Andy Holloway
His opportunity was greater than people remember.
Mike Wright
This is, this is like giving a, you know, an Olympic diver a kiddie pool to practice in. I mean, the team was so bad last year. Right. Winless.
Andy Holloway
Sure.
Mike Wright
So you give somebody.
Jason Moore
But now they switched him to an above ground pool.
Mike Wright
Right.
Jason Moore
Which is larger. Hey, that's good. But you're not wanting to do a dive for a while.
Mike Wright
I believe they call those doughboys.
Jason Moore
Is that true? I thought that was a sandwich.
Mike Wright
That's a po boy.
Andy Holloway
Oh, doughboy. Yeah. I mean, there's the Pillsbury Doughboy.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
It's also a, I believe, a nickname for veterans of a certain war.
Mike Wright
A doughboy.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I believe so.
Jason Moore
No, how you spelled a dough? Is this like Pillsbury?
Mike Wright
Yes. Doughboy pools.
Jason Moore
Well, there you go.
Mike Wright
Not a sponsor.
Jason Moore
Wow.
Mike Wright
Definitely accurate shout out to doughboy.
Andy Holloway
Bulls can have like five minutes of fun in those.
Mike Wright
It's like the Kleenex of the tissue category.
Andy Holloway
The brand they got brand.
Mike Wright
They're the. There goes Larry Fitzgerald.
Andy Holloway
But the reason more that I wanted to highlight Isaiah Crowell one was I mean a massive outlier in terms of 15th and opportunity, but ranked 30th at the position for fantasy points.
Jason Moore
But.
Andy Holloway
And you look at. Pro Football Focus ranked the Browns as the 14th best offensive line last year. Yeah, that's not.
Mike Wright
We. We thought they'd be better.
Andy Holloway
We thought they'd be better, but that's still a top half offensive line, tons of opportunity. They are losing their best player, of course. And Joe Thomas, who's is. He's going to Miami for a different reason. But what do you guys think of seeing these kinds of numbers? And then you have Carlos Hyde and or Nick Chubb as the grinder for. For that team when Isaiah Crowell got 234 touches.
Mike Wright
Well, you almost have to make a choice here, right. You have to say either Isaiah Crowell.
Andy Holloway
Was really bad, which kind of was.
Mike Wright
Like in and of himself. It wasn't just like you either have.
Jason Moore
To determine independently bad.
Mike Wright
Yeah, independently. The opportunity. Either the opportunity there is bad, in which case somebody coming in to take over 15th most touches or share 15th most touches doesn't represent very much. Or Crowell was independently bad and it was his fault. And Chubb and Hyde are somehow going to, you know. And what does that translate to? He finished. Crowell finished 30th.
Andy Holloway
Right.
Mike Wright
So let's say they're much more efficient, but they're splitting what equates to the 20th best running back. But it's height and shove.
Jason Moore
So this is.
Mike Wright
That's still going to hurt you.
Jason Moore
This is something that's interesting that the Foot Clan should be aware of. Mike and I were going back through several years of data of where people's opportunity versus their fantasy finish, where they landed because we wanted to see the trends of like for these guys who were very inefficient, do they bounce back? You know, do they. Do they DeAndre Hopkins back or do they fall off? And we have to say that there are both. Both things can happen. But the majority was very clear that when we were going back through this list, it did not look good. The guys that had a lot of volume, who sucked with that volume, that was very often basically the last year of relevance for their career. And you didn't know it then. So for Frank Gore, for Isaiah Crowell, I lean more on the side of Isaiah Crowell is if he got that volume and wasn't able to do anything with it, he's. His situation has not improved to the point where I think he's going to be better this year than he was last year.
Mike Wright
That's fair. JJ. 232 touches, 17th in the league, 36th in fantasy, and yet a whole cauldron of change all year long. Right. I mean, changing teams, changing roles, changing opportunity. I don't. Do you throw it out? I mean, do you throw jai season out to a degree. Because he was great on a per touch basis in Philadelphia.
Andy Holloway
Right?
Mike Wright
I think he was over five a carry, wasn't he? I think he was like five point.
Andy Holloway
I can figure that out for you In Philadelphia in the regular season, he ran at 5.8 a carry.
Mike Wright
Yeah, I thought it was almost 6.
Andy Holloway
A carry, 70 for over 400 yards.
Mike Wright
So to me this was just that muddy period in the middle of the season that distorted the 17th versus 36 and the quantity of opportunity he got in Philadelphia.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, he had an opportunity in Miami. Yes, he did. It's hard to remember exactly what happened to J.J.E because so many things changed for him where he was. People were hyping him up. They were very excited for JJ's fantasy prospects in Miami. He got the volume. He was actually pretty solid week one. And then after that it was. It was mediocre at best. And of course you had no touchdowns on the ground for J.
Jason Moore
In seven games, he was on pace for 350, 15 carries. So even at a terrible 3.37 yards per carry, he would have been over 1,000 yards just because of the volume. But it's so weird to have that much volume over seven weeks and never hit pay dirt.
Andy Holloway
Right.
Jason Moore
That to me is more of the outlier in the sense that touchdowns are the thing that is less easy to predict. Year over year. Volume is easier to predict.
Mike Wright
I actually have JI in my top 24.
Andy Holloway
I was going to say I. I think I remember you saying you're rising on.
Mike Wright
I did, yeah. A few weeks ago on the show. I think I mentioned it. While I'm a Corey Clement fan, there's a specific role for him. Legarette Blunt, leaving all those carries. I think Ajayi, look, those numbers are impressive. He was the same explosive player in Philly, just with not enough work and not enough touchdowns to be the guy that you want him to be. I got him in the top 24. I want to contrast two players here because you just brought up Jason More Often than not, these numbers actually mean the beginning of the end for a player.
Jason Moore
Right.
Mike Wright
And these two players are almost identical in touches and fantasy finish, which was Joe Mixon and Jonathan Stewart. Joe Mixon 22nd in touches, 34th and finish. Jonathan Stewart 23rd in touches, 39th and finish. Here's 208 and 206 touches. But I think we feel very differently about these two players.
Jason Moore
Feel very differently. And the data that Mike and I looked at backed this up because there was also an age association to it. It was when veteran players took that real step of inefficiency. It said, no, they're not going to bounce back. They became inefficient, you know, later in their career. They're done. And that is where it was very rare to find someone bouncing back. So Jonathan Stewart, if Saquon wasn't there, I would be calling for him to be done. Now he's done and he's relevant.
Mike Wright
Have you followed the news lately as well?
Jason Moore
Oh, yeah.
Mike Wright
Despite the fact Jonathan Stewart got a three point something ridiculous guarantee.
Jason Moore
Good for you, agent.
Mike Wright
I think he's like. Jonathan Stewart's like a piano player. I think he must have played a ballad in that meeting. Just something really impressed him. Use the black keys and the white keys. I mean something so nice.
Jason Moore
He's minor, he's major, major, minor.
Andy Holloway
Beautiful, finely tuned. The one thing that between all pianists that shows who is very talented is you use all the keys.
Mike Wright
All of them.
Andy Holloway
I've seen those people only playing in the key of C. Oh, I just.
Mike Wright
Can'T get it down. I used to impress my grandparents when I could run down all the keys top to bottom.
Andy Holloway
Hit him with the chopsticks.
Mike Wright
No, not for real. I was a child.
Jason Moore
They had some real low expectations for you.
Mike Wright
Well, grandparents are going to give you props no matter what. But here, here's the deal though. The news that came out about Stewart is that he looks like a man hanging on to no to nothing in New York.
Jason Moore
And that supports, you know, what we found. But with Joe Mixon, he's very, very, very young, obviously rookie last season for the Cincinnati Bengals. And I am willing, similar to with Jaya Jai, when I look at this and I say, okay, I'm willing to say that his inefficiency was because of all the changes and his situation has now changed. I believe that the inefficiency with Joe Mixon, he was a rookie, he was behind a horrific offensive line that struggled especially early. He didn't actually get his start until after week nine. People don't Realize that it was that late in the season before he became the starter. And from that point on he only had one game where he was under four yards of carry. So I think that I expect a rebound for Joe Mixon based on what we saw from college and what we saw at the end of last season when he was finally his starter along with the offensive line. But it's scary. It's scary to say, oh, this guy's going to be great. When he sucked last year.
Mike Wright
On the whole is there circling back to Crowell, Mike.
Andy Holloway
Okay, I want to. And then we got to go back to Stewart too.
Mike Wright
Okay, well, do you want to finish that?
Jason Moore
And then I want to go back.
Andy Holloway
The point on Jonathan Stewart was 206 touches. That's 23rd in the league. C.J. anderson is now filling that role for Carolina.
Mike Wright
Sure.
Andy Holloway
And 23rd in touches. When you're talking, look, I Christian McCaffrey, that's fine. But they're still going to give Anderson a crapload of touches. And we've talked about the correlation. 23rd. If he, if C.J. anderson could be anywhere around there. He is currently a better running back than Jonathan Stewart was this past season. You're talking about the great possibility of being a low end running back too. And no one wants him.
Mike Wright
If you want to give a running back a chance to hang on beyond their perceived prime, the way that they do that is playing behind Cam Newton or Tyrod Taylor or a running threat quarterback, that gives you more opportunity for misdirection, for seeing, you know, you got to keep a linebacker on Cam. So I agree with you.
Jason Moore
C.J.
Mike Wright
Anderson, we don't talk about him enough.
Andy Holloway
He's going in the eighth round.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
With the potential. Yeah.
Mike Wright
I would have assumed later, but still.
Andy Holloway
Eighth round potential lower end running back too.
Jason Moore
He's the running back 39 right now.
Andy Holloway
That's a huge return on value.
Mike Wright
It was 2016 when Isaiah Crowell was hyper efficient and had the good year.
Andy Holloway
That was the two.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Two years ago.
Mike Wright
Two years ago. Right. Not last year. Very bad.
Andy Holloway
Right.
Mike Wright
Cleveland was a 28th ranked offensive line that year.
Jason Moore
Really?
Mike Wright
That's what's so amazing. He had a very efficient year. That's the only.
Andy Holloway
He had huge plays.
Mike Wright
Yeah, sure. He just didn't have that last year at all. I want to talk wide receivers, but I will bring up Samaj P. Ryan because I know the purpose of bringing him up, which is last year was 29th in touch, has finished 44th in fantasy points. We obviously have P. Ryan ranked outside of relevance by a lot right. 73rd ranked running back. He's not the point here. The point is that there were 200 touches that went to P. Ryan that we expect Geist to be what swallowing.
Andy Holloway
Up and in Samaj P. Ryan received starter touches in eight games.
Jason Moore
Yes.
Andy Holloway
Only eight games of getting it where he got the bulk of his carries and he was 29th in touches.
Jason Moore
Darius Kais, he's going to feast in the running game. And I've said this before because we've sparred about whether or not Geist will be a three down back. He won't. He won't be a receiving back. He will never touch 40 receptions.
Mike Wright
According to me he won't even touch him. He won't get near that even touchdown reception.
Andy Holloway
Put my hands up.
Jason Moore
Yeah, no, I won't touch it. That's 40.
Mike Wright
He wants to hit in the face for Jason.
Jason Moore
For Jason. But I will 100% and I could be wrong about that. I'm not. But I could.
Mike Wright
But you will.
Jason Moore
But I won't. But I will 100% admit that he could have enough volume on the ground alone based on, I mean this Samaj Piron having almost 200 carries when he wasn't even start touches when he wasn't even the starter. A few, mostly carries. Alfred Morris back in the day with assist, you know, in Washington he was not getting involved in the passing game and he had enough volume in the rushing game.
Andy Holloway
So yeah, man, if I. Yeah, yeah. Way to close that statement.
Jason Moore
Nailed it.
Andy Holloway
Stuck the landing.
Mike Wright
Let's talk about underperforming wide receivers. Right. The correlation between total targets and fantasy finish is very strong. There are a couple big time outliers that stand out and in this category that's a real bounce back opportunity because if you're, if you're that big a part of the target share generally fantasy points follow and the things that can pull you out of that can be total touchdowns in proportion to those targets. Right. You just have an outlier year where you don't have enough touchdowns. You don't end up in the end zone. You get dragged down on the one yard line. Like what Calvin Johnson a few years ago like six times he was dragged down on the one the worst. So that hurts you. But let's talk about some of those players. Demarius Thomas last year under 1,000 yards. I think that was kind of the headline. That's, that's, you know, shotgunned out there to the fantasy community. Ninth in targets.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
Finished 20th in fantasy points. No one competent at quarterback. I think we all like Demarius Thomas to bounce back. So much so that I've got him as a wide receiver. 1.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I don't hate it. Number 12 overall and I didn't put him in this list. But Emmanuel Sanders also has a huge gap between target finish and fantasy finish. But I feel like we've. We've talked about those guys pretty recently. So there was other players that I really wanted to focus on. It's hard to talk about Des Bryant at this time because he is currently unemployed. However, Jameson Crowder, Marquis Lee, and hold on to your butts, everybody. Devonte Parker. Devonte Parker. I don't know if you want to start with him or not, but 28th in targets, fantasy finish. I don't care of 53.
Mike Wright
Well, I care about that part.
Andy Holloway
I mean that that's a massive gap.
Mike Wright
Devonte Parker and Zay Jones hang out.
Andy Holloway
Oh, Zay Jones was the winner of this award.
Mike Wright
There are players in which targets become the proof of what you have in them. And last year, to me, what happened with Devonte Parker was you got proof of the fact that he's not going to change the game.
Andy Holloway
All right, well, then let's talk about Jameson Crowder. 25th in targets. Had a fantasy finish of 37th.
Mike Wright
You guys are still not quite bullish on him this year. I like him.
Jason Moore
I actually like him more than my current ranking says. I need to take another look there. It's really difficult when you stat out Washington because you have to really project who it's going to be. You know, because I like Paul Richardson, because I like James Crowder, because I like Jordan Reed when he's on the field, it's really hard to actually say who's going to be the guy he's going to stock.
Mike Wright
I was going to say poor Josh Stockton didn't get a mention.
Jason Moore
And you know, you spread the ball around and you know, and maybe that is what ends up happening, is that the ball gets spread around so much that Crowder isn't able to. But.
Andy Holloway
But he still got the targets. That's right. That's what the point of this is. 25th in targets. He should have finished either as a low end two or a high end wide receiver three. And yet he was a wide receiver four. So you believe.
Jason Moore
Let's.
Andy Holloway
I know it's hard to project. 25th in targets, Jameson Crowder. Do you believe that he is a good enough wide receiver that this will not happen again, that he will finish 12 spots behind his target?
Jason Moore
Yes, 100%. I believe that Jameson Crowder is a good enough that if he were to finish 25th in targets this season, I would expect him to be the 25th ranked wide receiver. The back half of last year, once he got a little bit over his injuries, he actually dominated. Was very good.
Mike Wright
He is the best wide receiver on the team. He is the best pure wide receiver on the team. Paul Richardson, Josh Dachshund, they can do some things special. The most complete wide receiver is Jameson Crowder. So if you had to bank on.
Jason Moore
Something, I wanted to argue, kept trying to think.
Mike Wright
There was so much silence, I couldn't even believe it.
Jason Moore
Andy is correct. He is the best all around. Yeah.
Mike Wright
If you're betting on something, I guess.
Jason Moore
I'm curious how much he lines up in the slot. It'd be interested to look interesting to see that.
Andy Holloway
Sure.
Mike Wright
A lot. Yeah, I mean he does a lot, but he is. He's a player that's good after the catch. He's a good route runner. He's a good Doug Baldwin esque play breaks down. The guy that gets open in the secondary. But we had high expectations in fantasy for him last year and then he let us down early in the season and we didn't get back on that train because Washington was struggling and there was nobody that, you know, troll Pryor let you down. I think we all grimaced when we started looking at Washington last year.
Andy Holloway
We? I was trying to pull it up. Alignment data for Jameson Crowder. Thankfully, we have Matt Harmon's reception perception and Jameson Crowder was among the top just under 70% of the time in the slot.
Mike Wright
Yeah, you're getting. You're getting Landry light. You're.
Andy Holloway
No, you're getting more than Landry this past season, at least for the sample that Harmon did.
Mike Wright
Sure. But in production.
Andy Holloway
Oh, yes. Oh, you're getting lite L, I, T, E. They're not even spelling the word properly.
Mike Wright
All right, so who do you want to talk about next? Mike, you want to talk about Marquis Lee?
Andy Holloway
Yeah, we need to talk about him.
Mike Wright
You've got reception perception up. Why don't you break down Marquis lee for us? 28th in targets.
Andy Holloway
Hold on.
Mike Wright
I got 41st in fantasy points. Marquis Lee's season is my fear for Alan Hearns. Okay. Marquis lee's season in 2017 is my fear for Alan Hearns in 2018. De facto number one targets to support a wide receiver. 2, 3 range and yet not efficient enough due to a mixture of dak and just not, you know, facing top coverage in a tough division. That's my worry. I'm not saying that's what will happen. But if I saw a bad season from Hearns, it would be one that looks like Marquis Lee's.
Jason Moore
Yeah. I guess the difference here is what you think about the players. Whether or not you think Marquis Lee is a quality wide receiver. Obviously he was drafted to be that and whether you think Allen Hearn was.
Andy Holloway
Paid to be that too.
Mike Wright
I think he's a good receiver. I think you just saw him facing better coverage, being the de facto one.
Andy Holloway
But he's still.
Mike Wright
And bortles.
Andy Holloway
Well, it. But you would you still have Marquis Lee down as the one for that team? I mean, if they're. If they end up against a tough db who does shadow. You think he's going to be on Lee?
Mike Wright
Yes.
Jason Moore
Who would you.
Mike Wright
Right now I do. No, right now.
Andy Holloway
I'm just saying, like that's a problem. The argument for why he was bad last year is the exact same his situation that he's in this year situation.
Mike Wright
Oh, I don't think Lee's going to get better. No.
Jason Moore
Yeah. Unlike the Mary's Thomas who has a quarterback upgrade. Marquis Lee's in the exact same situation. Perhaps a worse situation now that Dante Moncrief has come in. Dede Westbrook is healthy for the whole season. Wasn't last season.
Mike Wright
Cole broke out.
Jason Moore
Cole broke out.
Mike Wright
Austin's variant Jenkins.
Jason Moore
Marquis Lee is a guy that I am. I mean I've just been avoiding. Especially after seeing what Harmon charted him at. How he was just. He was a red flower. He was a rose. And it's. It was not a good. It was a dying rose.
Mike Wright
He is.
Jason Moore
He's.
Andy Holloway
He was a rose. All of his charts are red.
Jason Moore
Very thorny.
Mike Wright
Very thorny. What when the Bachelor. You want the rose in the Bachelor, right?
Andy Holloway
Oh, certainly.
Jason Moore
I mean that's.
Mike Wright
If you don't keep the rose, you just. You're empty handed. You go home.
Jason Moore
Usually roses.
Andy Holloway
We got five minutes to spend on the Bachelor.
Jason Moore
No, no, no.
Andy Holloway
Okay.
Jason Moore
Usually we good. Roses are good. And so that's the problem with calling him a rose. This is. It's got to be like a. It's a dirty rose. It's a.
Andy Holloway
Well, every rose has its thorn, Jason.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Mike Wright
Didn't you know that?
Andy Holloway
Sticking with the music theme.
Mike Wright
Very nice.
Andy Holloway
Thank you.
Mike Wright
Okay.
Andy Holloway
I mean those are the guys that.
Mike Wright
I really des Bryant was the one that. Yeah. I mean 12th and targets 24th and fantasy finish. Inefficient. Problematic.
Jason Moore
Getting older. No one signed.
Mike Wright
There was one other piece of news that I didn't bring up earlier and that was that apparently DeMarco Murray is going to sign.
Andy Holloway
What? Oh, are you going to the next.
Mike Wright
And they say he's going to sign me the next week.
Andy Holloway
I've heard he's. He's talked to three to four teams.
Mike Wright
Apparently he's going to sign Mike. It's going to be big. I remember so big for my dynasty team.
Jason Moore
I remember last off season. I know Adrian Peterson was talking to three or four teams, and every team in the league was like, I haven't talked to Peterson. He's like, no, no, there's several. Several teams are. And then months went on and then he finally signed.
Mike Wright
You know where he's going. And I think I know you know that he's going to Indianapolis.
Jason Moore
Oh, don't do it. If.
Andy Holloway
Let me ask you this. If you send a text to somebody and they do not respond, but you see that you got the. You get the.
Mike Wright
Oh, you get the read receipt.
Andy Holloway
You get the read receipt. They do not respond.
Mike Wright
Is that a conversation?
Andy Holloway
Did I talk to you?
Mike Wright
Right.
Jason Moore
Okay. If several teams have been in communication that you could say they've been in communication with several teams.
Mike Wright
Indianapolis.
Andy Holloway
I know you read it.
Mike Wright
Indianapolis has the proven track record of bringing on, bringing the older guy, bringing in the old guy that can catch the ball. I mean, they're very similar, right?
Andy Holloway
Yes, they are.
Jason Moore
That's just a dream. Andy. Not happening.
Mike Wright
Kurt Murray, greater sign. Marlon Mac, current Murray.
Andy Holloway
Great.
Jason Moore
I would say no.
Mike Wright
Well, I know you would. I expected you to say no.
Jason Moore
What do you think?
Andy Holloway
I honestly don't know because I believe his season last year was derailed from the hamstring injury. It's a hamstring injury to a running back, especially with. With his wear and tear, is a terrible sign for your season outlook.
Jason Moore
I will. I will admit this. Similar to yesterday or yesterday. Coming up, we're going to talk about.
Mike Wright
Some similar to coming up.
Jason Moore
Similar.
Mike Wright
Case you wondered if we pre recorded our Saturday show because we're out of town.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. Why? Why did we pre record our Saturday show? Jason.
Mike Wright
Yeah. Why don't you tell the people?
Jason Moore
Because tomorrow night we're gon in Dallas for a live show. Dallas. Oh, Dallas. I can't wait to be with y'all. Right. Isn't that how you say it in Dallas?
Andy Holloway
If you're in Dallas and you haven't gone to ballerslive.com to grab that ticket. Shame on you.
Mike Wright
There's time.
Jason Moore
I don't want. We don't want to shame. There's time. We don't want to shame our audience.
Mike Wright
No, but seriously, but shame on you.
Jason Moore
Shame on you.
Mike Wright
We don't want to shame our audience, but if you don't, you get the horn. Yeah, but we'll see you there. And if you live far away from Dallas, whose fault is that?
Jason Moore
Yeah, there's still time to make it to Philly.
Mike Wright
Still time to move your family. All right. Yeah, we do have. We have shows coming up in Philadelphia, in New York at the end of July. Tickets available still@ballerslive.com so come see us.
Jason Moore
What?
Mike Wright
I was circling back to some sort of point you were making.
Jason Moore
Yes, I was in the middle of a point which was in best ball. I do think DeMarco Murray is a. Is a value when you get him really late, because I fully expect him to sign. And once he signs, he will inevitably move up, though. I mean, that's just. It's just obvious logic. If he signed, he would be drafted earlier. You're getting a discount because he's not signed right now. And he will sign somewhere.
Mike Wright
Yeah, okay, sure. And what else is going on? We got the big live show. Before we let you go, we do have a Saturday episode. Make sure you subscribe. If you're listening to this podcast for the first time, welcome. You're gonna love it. It's so good.
Andy Holloway
Hopefully they made it through the Intro with Texty McGee over here.
Mike Wright
No, that was still a good intro. We carried. We carried. He woofed, and I brought it to a better place. Oh, man. I think I know what your next and future mailbags need to be. Oh, man, it's that voice.
Jason Moore
Maybe our Halloween show will come as the Dr. Pepper and the whole show.
Mike Wright
But make sure you subscribe Apple podcasts, Google podcasts, wherever you listen. We really appreciate your subscriptions, your reviews. The show's obviously free for podcast listeners, so if you want to help us out, you can leave us a review. You know, tell a friend. Maybe not one in your league. I get it. You want that secret weapon in your holster, but you got more friends than that, don't you?
Andy Holloway
Or have some courage.
Mike Wright
And have some courage. Take the challenge.
Jason Moore
If I only had a heart.
Andy Holloway
Man, this has been musical day today. I love it.
Mike Wright
So, yeah, that's it. We're done. We're wrapping it up. Have a wonderful time at Ballers Live.
Andy Holloway
If you want to play some bass bone, I recommend you do draft dot com. Ballers is the place to be. We'll see you next time. Goodbye.
Jason Moore
Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter. @ the FF Ballers.
In the "Meat on the Bone + Trade Tips" episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deep into strategic trade evaluations for dynasty leagues and dissect underperforming players who left significant potential on the table last season. This comprehensive analysis offers listeners actionable insights to bolster their fantasy teams for the upcoming season.
The episode opens with a focused discussion on assessing player trade values within dynasty leagues. The hosts emphasize the multifaceted nature of dynasty trading compared to redraft leagues, where team strategies can vary significantly based on long-term goals.
Andy Holloway (02:27):
"Certainly there's so many aspects that go into a dynasty trade. You got age, contract situation, projection of that player's overall career..."
Jason Moore (03:09):
"...you are either building for the future or you're going for that championship this year."
Key Insights:
In the "Meat on the Bone" segment, the hosts examine players who had high workloads but yielded disappointing fantasy outputs, suggesting underlying inefficiencies or potential declines in performance.
Discussion Highlights:
Andy Holloway (14:59):
"Frank Gore had the ninth most touches at the running back position... but he finished 10 spots behind his touch count to finish at 19th for fantasy."
Mike Wright (17:02):
"Frank Gore is 35 years old... he’s going through Miami. It’s his sunset tour."
Conclusion: Gore’s high volume did not translate into proportional fantasy points, likely due to age-related decline and a changing team dynamic in Indianapolis.
Discussion Highlights:
Jason Moore (23:17):
"...if he got that volume and wasn't able to do anything with it, his situation has not improved..."
Andy Holloway (20:56):
"Francisco McCaffrey... but they are still going to give Anderson a crapload of touches."
Conclusion: Despite substantial touches, Crowell's inefficiency suggests he may not rebound, posing a risk for fantasy managers.
Discussion Highlights:
Jason Moore (35:15):
"I believe that Jameson Crowder is good enough that if he were to finish 25th in targets this season, I would expect him to be the 25th ranked wide receiver."
Andy Holloway (35:00):
"25th in targets. He should have finished either as a low end two or a high end three. And yet he was a wide receiver four."
Conclusion: Crowder underperformed relative to his target share, highlighting potential inefficiencies in Washington's offensive scheme or his role within it.
Discussion Highlights:
"No one competent at quarterback. I think we all like Demarius Thomas to bounce back."
Conclusion: Thomas's drop in fantasy ranking despite high targets indicates stagnation, likely due to quarterback performance issues affecting his production.
Discussion Highlights:
"28th in targets, fantasy finish. I don't care of 53."
Conclusion: Parker’s significant gap between targets and fantasy points underscores his inefficiency, making him a low-value option despite workload.
The hosts speculate on DeMarco Murray potentially signing with the Indianapolis Colts, exploring the implications for dynasty teams.
Mike Wright (40:11):
"Apparently DeMarco Murray is going to sign... I think I know where he's going. And I think you know that he's going to Indianapolis."
Jason Moore (40:15):
"DeMarco Murray is a value when you get him really late... Once he signs, he will inevitably move up."
Key Insights:
Towards the end of the episode, the hosts promote their live shows and encourage listeners to engage with their community platforms.
Jason Moore (42:05):
"Tomorrow night we're going in Dallas for a live show... Philadelphia, New York at the end of July."
Andy Holloway (44:20):
"If you want to play some fantasy football, I recommend you do draft.com."
Encouragement for Listeners:
Mike Wright (02:07):
"A fun new segment for today's show that you're going to get into. I promise you this, you'll be smarter at the end."
Jason Moore (25:37):
"When veteran players took that real step of inefficiency, it said, no, they're not going to bounce back."
Andy Holloway (13:02):
"Meat on the Bone – Players who may have left the field hungry."
The "Meat on the Bone + Trade Tips" episode offers a scrutinized look at player performances and trade strategies crucial for dynasty fantasy football managers. By identifying inefficiencies and evaluating trade values beyond surface metrics, the Fantasy Footballers provide listeners with the tools needed to refine their teams and gain a competitive edge in their leagues.
For those looking to optimize their fantasy strategies, this episode serves as an invaluable resource, blending analytical depth with engaging discourse.