Mid Round Madness + Waiver Tips, Leeches - Fantasy Football Podcast

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary Episode: Mid Round Madness + Waiver Tips, Leeches - August 6, 2020

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Introduction

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve into mid-round draft strategies, waiver wire tips, and analyze key NFL news impacting fantasy football. The discussion is rich with expert insights, strategic advice, and in-depth player evaluations designed to help listeners dominate their fantasy leagues.

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Waiver Wire Tips and FAB Strategy

Duration: 03:16 – 07:10

The hosts address a listener's question about FAB (Free Agent Budget) strategy in leagues utilizing a budget-based waiver system. Mike Wright emphasizes the importance of not being overly conservative with FAB funds, especially in the early weeks:

“Don’t be afraid to spend it. People who are brand new to the system generally get a little bit greedy and hoarding with the money.” (04:17)

Jason Moore adds that early investments in FAB can secure valuable players who provide consistency throughout the season:

“It's about prioritizing the player that you want. Sometimes you have to make a decision of if I wake up in the morning and see that I have lost out on that player, then bid more.” (05:50)

The hosts recommend staying engaged with their weekly waiver wire breakdowns on Tuesday episodes to maximize FAB usage effectively.

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NFL News Highlights

Duration: 07:14 – 13:03

Raiders’ Henry Ruggs in the Slot

Andy Holloway discusses Henry Ruggs being positioned in the slot by the Raiders’ offensive coordinator Greg Olson:

“This really just throws some water on Hunter Renfro's potential PPR productivity.” (08:55)

Mike Wright concurs, highlighting that Hunter Renfro may see reduced targets:

“He’s going to be games where, you know, without a touchdown, Kareem Hunt disappears is my worry.” (18:00)

Dolphins’ Running Back Situation

The conversation shifts to the Dolphins' running back roster, focusing on Jordan Howard and Matt Breida. Mike Wright notes:

“Matt Breida's work ethic, which is stellar. He’ll be the lead back according to one of his trusted sources.” (10:40)

Andy Holloway underscores the importance of target volume for players like Devonte Parker and Mike Gasicki, making them viable fantasy options.

Opt-Out Deadline Implications

With the NFL's opt-out deadline looming at 4:00 PM Eastern Time, the hosts anticipate potential changes in player availability, which they plan to explore in subsequent episodes.

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Mid Round Madness Segment

Duration: 13:20 – 50:37

Overview of Mid Round Madness

The segment kicks off with the hosts introducing their "Mid Round Madness" feature, where each host selects standout players from rounds four to eight of fantasy drafts. The objective is to identify undervalued players with high upside, akin to mining for gems in challenging draft rounds.

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Kareem Hunt: A Mid-Round Gem

Jason Moore passionately advocates for drafting Kareem Hunt of the Cleveland Browns in the mid-rounds:

“He is a home run league-winning pick.” (17:06)

Moore highlights Hunt's consistent performance despite his role as a backup to Nick Chubb, noting his high usage and potential:

“He had 62.5% of his games as a top 24 back. That was the 15th best score, ironically tied with Nick Chubb.” (15:01)

Andy Holloway probes into Hunt's reliability during games where Chubb might underperform or be sidelined, reinforcing Hunt's value as a safe, high-upside pick.

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Hollywood Brown: Potential vs. Draft Position

Andy Holloway critiques Hollywood Brown being drafted late, especially given his physical attributes and previous performance:

“His ceiling is probably now we have him ranked 29, 25, and 28. I think his ceiling is to finish at about wide receiver 20 for his... an amazing value to get in the late seventh round.” (24:38)

Jason Moore appreciates Brown's talent but cautions against expecting him to become a primary target:

“He's going to have some volatile... but he's going to have some up-and-coming potential.” (26:53)

The hosts agree that while Brown is a solid mid-round pick, his role may limit his fantasy ceiling compared to higher-tier receivers.

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Terry McLaurin: A Rising Star

Mike Wright introduces Terry McLaurin as a standout mid-round wide receiver, drawing comparisons to legends like Julio Jones:

“Terry McLaurin is the number one guy on this team and... his ceiling is to finish as a top 15 wide receiver.” (31:28)

Jason Moore echoes the sentiment, emphasizing McLaurin's rookie production and potential for continued growth:

“Terry McLaurin could be a top 20 wide receiver if he takes that step forward.” (32:04)

The hosts highlight McLaurin's consistent target volume and role as the primary option in Washington's offense, making him a valuable mid-round selection.

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Tyler Lockett: Consistency with Ceiling Constraints

Jason Moore and Mike Wright discuss Tyler Lockett as a reliable but somewhat limited mid-round wide receiver option:

“He is a top 15 wide receiver two years in a row... the passing volume does open up.” (40:58)

While acknowledging Lockett's consistency and low bust rate, the hosts note that his ceiling is inherently capped by the offense's passing volume and his position in the receiver hierarchy.

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DJ Chark: A No-Brainer Mid-Round Pick

Mike Wright presents DJ Chark as an excellent mid-round wide receiver due to his breakout potential:

“DJ Chark is an absolute no brainer pick. Last year he finished as the wide receiver 16 and a half...” (51:41)

Andy Holloway agrees, adding that Chark's athleticism and improved offensive situation make him a high-value target:

“He has a lot of upside. I think moving forward with him is the bona fide one on the team.” (56:22)

The consensus is that Chark's consistent performance combined with a better quarterback and offensive line promises continued fantasy success.

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Ronald Jones: Undervalued in Drafts

Andy Holloway champions Ronald Jones as a mid-round running back undervalued in drafts:

“He was being drafted at 36 according to the ADP data we have today, which I think is kind of probably not going to come to fruition. But I brought it up... turning it into the fourth, fifth round.” (45:37)

Jason Moore concurs, emphasizing Jones's role in Tampa Bay's evolving offense and his explosive playmaking ability:

“He's going to have some new tattoos. Final day of Pristine week. By the way, check them out @pristine auction.com...” (56:16) (Note: This quote appears to be part of a promotion and may be excluded from a focused content summary.)

Mike Wright adds that Jones provides security in a murky backfield, making him a safe and high-ceiling mid-round pick.

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Conclusion

Throughout the episode, the Fantasy Footballers provide actionable insights into mid-round drafting strategies, emphasizing the importance of targeting players like Kareem Hunt, Terry McLaurin, DJ Chark, and Ronald Jones for their consistent performance and high upside. The hosts also navigate through recent NFL news, offering nuanced perspectives on player roles and team dynamics that influence fantasy football decisions. By leveraging their expert analysis and strategic advice, listeners are well-equipped to make informed decisions and enhance their chances of winning their fantasy leagues.

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Notable Quotes:

• Mike Wright (04:17): “Don’t be afraid to spend it. People who are brand new to the system generally get a little bit greedy and hoarding with the money.”

• Jason Moore (05:50): “It's about prioritizing the player that you want. Sometimes you have to make a decision of if I wake up in the morning and see that I have lost out on that player, then bid more.”

• Jason Moore (17:06): “He is a home run league-winning pick.”

• Jason Moore (31:28): “Terry McLaurin could be a top 20 wide receiver if he takes that step forward.”

• Mike Wright (51:41): “DJ Chark is an absolute no brainer pick. Last year he finished as the wide receiver 16 and a half...”

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For more insights and strategies, join the Fantasy Footballers community at jointhefoot.com, follow them on Twitter @theffballers, and subscribe on Instagram.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, Foot clan. Sometimes people, they stop me on the street and they say, andy, what's in the udk? Give me the details.

[Mike Wright]

That's what they say.

[Andy Holloway]

They ask me, yeah. And I give them the details. Mike. 100 plus player profile videos, all of our expert rankings and analysis. A top 200 list. We got risk ratings, we got those tier rankings, Jason.

[Jason Moore]

That's the most important custom league scoring.

[Andy Holloway]

Put in your settings, get your own rankings out of it, printable cheat sheets, the adp, all of our projections on every single player updated all the time.

[Mike Wright]

And then they're like, sir, this is a Wendy's.

[Andy Holloway]

Check it [e-mail] hey, it's Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, welcome. In Thursday, August 6, 2020, the fantasy footballers.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, still 2020, huh? Still here.

[Andy Holloway]

Can I level with you, Mike?

[Mike Wright]

Absolutely.

[Andy Holloway]

I know 2020 has been a bit of a challenging year.

[Mike Wright]

Mm.

[Andy Holloway]

However, it is the year that Deandre Hopkins was given to my Arizona Cardinals. Oh, I am.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

I am confused because I thought it was all supposed to be bad, but that seems very, very good.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. Okay. All right.

[Andy Holloway]

This good?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a good start to the show.

[Mike Wright]

Glass half full.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, well, you know, let's get this thing started.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Sir, you're at a Wendy's. You can check out the ultimate draft kit @ultimate draft kit.com we have a mid round madness show today. We're going to bring you. Each of us have selected a couple guys between rounds four and eight.

[Mike Wright]

They're tough, man. The middle rounds are tough. You know, there's going to be a couple gems in there. As long as you can get the, the pickaxe out, you know, and mine the rock. You find those gems.

[Andy Holloway]

Just keep going with analogy.

[Mike Wright]

Perhaps an emerald. Perhaps. But maybe, maybe you get some fool's gold.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true.

[Mike Wright]

You don't want that.

[Andy Holloway]

I did look back at last year and where some big time players were going. Mid Round Madness. Austin Eckler. Mid Round Madness. Derek Henry. These Cooper Cup. Yeah, there are some big time players in those rounds. So we brought you, we're bringing you a couple of players each today on the show. Maybe get into some mailbag. You can find us on twitter@the ff ballers. Instagram.com fantasy footballers. Instagram's adding. Adding some reels.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, man.

[Andy Holloway]

Which is. There is nothing to do with TikTok. It doesn't because they're 15 seconds.

[Jason Moore]

How dare you. It doesn't sound anything. It sounds different.

[Andy Holloway]

Real reals.

[Jason Moore]

It doesn't sound like TikTok, but we.

[Andy Holloway]

Might put some hot reels up. You know, maybe we're with the time. YouTube.com the fantasy footballers subscribe. Click the bell. Here's a quick question for today. Somebody wants fab tips. One of our JoinTheFoot.com supporters asks this question. Yo, yo, yo ballers, yo. I just entered my first league that uses fab. Any tips for how I should adjust my waiver strategy? Thanks and keep up the great work. What do you think? What is. So it's a hot fab tip. I mean, first off, 15 seconds or less.

[Mike Wright]

I'm sorry, first off, it depends on the league. Are these players all new to the FAB system? Because that will change things as well. And my tip for that is, don't be afraid to spend some money in week one and week two people when they're brand new to the system.

[Andy Holloway]

What if some of our listeners right now are brand new to hearing that term?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, free agent acquisition.

[Andy Holloway]

It's based, it's a water based waiver system.

[Mike Wright]

That's how it would be. FOB acquisition.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I should not have provoked an explanation. That was my fault.

[Mike Wright]

Essentially, it's a way for you to manage your waivers. You make a blind bid to add a player off the waiver wire to acquire a player off of. Acquire off of the waiver wire. Instead of just having the reverse order of standings where you have no say in who you're going to get off of the waiver wire, this makes it a little bit more fair. Adds a huge element of fun and strategy to the league. We recommend it for everybody, but people who are brand new to it generally get a little bit greedy and hoarding with the money. So number one, don't be afraid to spend it.

[Andy Holloway]

But gun shy, right? They want to hold it till the end. They don't want to be left, you know.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Without money.

[Mike Wright]

And you should have some money at the end. But let's say you are going into a league and they're used to it. You know, number one, stick around to the show because when we talk about waivers on every Tuesday's episode, we do break down our favorite players off of the waiver. We talk about how much of our budget would we spend. You're like, oh no, you know, I'll throw down 12% to go after that player. But that, I mean, it's, that's what it's about. It's about prioritizing the player that you want. And sometimes you have to make a decision of if I wake up in the morning and see that I have lost out on that player, then bid more.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's, that's the question that I think is really helpful is if I were to save to. If I were to have spent two more dollars and get the player, would I be upset if I wasted $2 and set your budget? But I agree with Mike. It's, it's really when I think about the fab system, it's about the timeline of the season. Like that's the tips and tricks that I have for the fab system is in the beginning of the year, guys are just worth more. Don't be afraid to buy them. They give you more weeks. If you were to get a guy after week one who becomes a valuable player for your team and you have them for 15 more weeks versus getting a guy right before playoffs who gives you one or two games, he, you know, if you just think about the dollar per week that you're getting for that player, it's fantastic. And the other thing is I always save like $5 of fab to go into my playoffs. So if, if I spent up big in the beginning and week four, I'm down to $5 in fab. Mentally. I say I have zero fab dollars because I want. Unless I'm out of the running and need to get back into the running for the playoffs because.

[Mike Wright]

And hopefully your league accepts $0 bids.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

That should be on for every league. There should not be a. You have to have a dollar to claim someone off the waivers. That's ridiculous.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's get into the news.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league.

[Andy Holloway]

Some interesting news out of Las Vegas this morning and I don't know what to make of it quite yet, but Raiders offensive coordinator Greg Olson.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Said first round wide receiver Henry Ruggs will start out doing some things in the slot. The team is very, it's interesting. The team's very excited obviously about. Well, you got Tyrell on the outside on one side and you got Brian Edwards another one of their rookie wide receiver draft picks that has, you know. Mike, what did you say this morning? There's, there's a drumbeat for Brian Edwards.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, he's been getting, you know, kind of not huge press, but low key things. And, and Brian Edwards out of South Carolina, he at least, you know, by people I trust in the draft community because he fell to the third round. He was an incredibly productive wide receiver, A good wide receiver. And there was just an injury situation that caused him to drop in the draft, whether that's fair or not. But the, I mean, the Raiders still used a third round pick to get him.

[Andy Holloway]

So the implication here is that if Rugs, let's say he comes into the slot occasionally, they say they want to move him around, they're going to start him there. Well, Hunter Renfro is not going to be on the field in those situations.

[Mike Wright]

Correct.

[Andy Holloway]

And a player like Hunter Renfro, who I think was thrown at as maybe the last round type of waiver flag type of player, he needs every snap he can get to have any type of value in a league. So this really just throws some water on Hunter Renfro's potential PPR productivity. That's. That's a lot of.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's a lot of peace. I agree that that was great alliteration and also that this does. The main takeaway here, I don't think is hyping up either of the rookies. I mean, that's a little bit, but it's really about. You might want to take a shot at a different late round target than Hunter Renfro because if those two rookies are.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, like Henry Ruggs, sure.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

He becomes way more interesting if they.

[Andy Holloway]

Manufacture opportunities for him to be on the field, which they should just get.

[Mike Wright]

Him touches in space and let him burn.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. He very well could be overlooked right now. I know that he is undervalued by me because I saw him coming in as more of a speed guy with a limited route tree that would be utilized more akin to like a slot wide receiver. No, like a Ted Ginn. Like, you know, like a John Ross. Right. Some. Some speedster that's on the outside. So this moving them there and manufacturing more targets might.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm with Jason, move him up a little. There's been, you know, you mix the Derek Carr and John Gruden with speedster, you don't know how much he was going to be used. So I think this is intriguing. The Raiders also let Jeremy Hill go. So he's gone. He's gone. NFL beat writer Omar Kelly, after being asked about the Dolphins running backs, tweeted this. This is Jordan Howard and Matt Breida. They are two completely different backs. Insightful. I usually prefer Howard's style. I like big bruisers, but I'm told that it's Breida's work ethic, which is stellar. He'll be the lead back according to one of his trusted sources, which is interesting.

[Mike Wright]

And the reason that this is interesting right now is with all the opting out that's happening to the Dolphins wide receivers, not that Alan Hearns or Albert Wilson were going to make huge waves and be these target machines in this offense, but you need someone to throw the ball to. And as you're losing actual capable NFL wide receivers like Matt Burrita is a good pass catcher and you have Chan Gailey, who I can't remember the numbers off the top of my head, but it's like his running backs combined always, almost always see over 100 targets and Jordan Howard should not be seeing those targets. They should be going to Matt Burrita.

[Andy Holloway]

Someone to throw the ball to. I didn't think of Jordan Howard exactly. What's funny is perception wise, you think, okay, maybe they want to get Matt Breida the lead back role. He's a little bit younger right now. They're the same age. Exact same age. Jordan Howard has been here forever and yet is still 25. That being said, other Dolphin news, Preston Williams, you know Albert Wilson and Albert and Alan Hearns. Alan Hearns going away. The Dolphins came out in a report and said that there's no assurance that he'll be on the field for week one. So Preston Williams just adding fuel to your like find a target like it makes me feel more confident about Devonte Parker and Mike Gasicki to start the year and that's enough for me if I think those two guys are going to be targeted for the first, you know, heavily like the end of last year for two, three, four weeks, that's enough for me to go out and get those guys and I can pivot off of them if I get a signal that the teams bringing somebody else back. But it gives me more confidence is my point.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, no, I agree those, those two guys right now are probably undervalued in drafts we'll see come draft day if they've skyrocketed in ADP or if there's still values.

[Andy Holloway]

The opt out deadline for the NFL is today at 4:00pm Eastern Time. Which means depending on when you have turned this podcast on, it might be over. So all the implications of that deadline if more players opt out will be talked about on tomorrow's podcast. So that will be interesting to watch. There is some consideration for later opt outs for players that have kind of extreme circumstances. Change of circumstances as I think the phrase that I saw from the nflpa. Health could be something in the family.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

But the general opt out date is today at 4pm Is there any other news that you guys want to talk about before we jump into our main segment?

[Mike Wright]

No, I think we're good.

[Jason Moore]

Get to the madness.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's do it.

[Jason Moore]

This is blasphemy. This is madness.

[Andy Holloway]

That drop is quite ironic for me today.

[Mike Wright]

Why is that?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, just the timing of it was crazy because I turned on the podcast I listened to. On the way into work was the hardcore history podcast with Dan Carlin. Oh. Talking about the Persians and the Spartans.

[Mike Wright]

Nice.

[Andy Holloway]

So ties in pretty good. They he said nothing about draft picks in the fourth to eighth round.

[Jason Moore]

So not a podcast I'll listen to.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, well, let's jump into it. Who wants to kick this thing off with their favorite player from the middle rounds?

[Jason Moore]

Well, I don't know that this is my favorite player from the middle rounds, but this is someone I wanted to talk about. I think he is a great target in the middle rounds, and I'll explain why. I mentioned him on yesterday's mock draft as being a good pick. One of you guys got him. I wanted him. But Kareem Hunt, running back for the Cleveland Browns, is an excellent draft pick this year. I had someone on Twitter reach out to me and talk about, you know, when we were talking about the backups, your insurance options at running back, and we came up with the big three, Chase Edmonds, Alexander Madison and Tony Pollard, the question was, what about, like, Latavius Murray? And my thought was, Latavius Murray and Kareem Hunt. These are players who are gigantic insurance policies. They will be fantastic. But they're not just that they're actually better than those players.

[Mike Wright]

They're not drafted as a backup.

[Jason Moore]

No. You can get a start or two out of them. Well, you can get a start or two out of Latavius Murray. You can get a start every single week from Kareem Hunt. And that is the point that I'm making here today, is that he's seen as this insurance option where if Chubb goes down, he's going to be great. And that is true, but that's what he's being drafted as. He is so much more than that. Once he got back last season, he had 62.5% of his games as a top 24 back. That was the 15th best score. It was actually ironically tied with Nick Chubb. And that and that, you know, that status tied with Nick Chubb's entire season, including the games that he didn't have Kareem Hunt on the field with him. This is a guy in Kareem Hunt who is an exceptional back. You know, if it wasn't for the off the field issues, he Glide Edwards Allaire wouldn't be a thing right now. And Kareem Hunt would be a top three, top four pick in fantasy football leagues. But now he's relegated to the role he's in. But he, it doesn't take away his talent. And you saw that on the field last year. This is a guy who has been. I mean, look at his career right now. You had him come out as a rookie. He was the running back four. Then the following year he was the running back 11. So both years a top 12 running back for fantasy football. And then last year, obviously he was suspended the first half of the season. Had his bye week, yada, yada. But when he came back as the backup to Chubb, he was the running back 19. He was a running back to week in and week out. You could start him, you could play him. And now they're talking about getting him involved as a receiving option even more. He's in the receiver meetings. He is, you know, he could be the third wide receiver or the slot wide receiver plenty of times.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, sorry. I don't want to cut you off, but I want to ask you a question.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Because yesterday on the show you were very vehement. You wanted Kareem Hunt to fall to you in the draft.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, I think he would have had you not pressed so hard.

[Jason Moore]

It was my bad.

[Andy Holloway]

It was your. Because I think I was going to let him go. One of the things that I'm curious about your perspective on Hunt is, look, you've come out and you said you think Odell Beckham bounces back this year they went out and they spent money on Austin Hooper, who's spending all this time with Baker Mayfield. We need Baker to take a step forward. Except for the Stefanski offense, produced 400 passing attempts last year. Is this a situation where, yes, Kareem Hunt, we know how talented he is. Are there going to be disappearing acts? Because if you have that many targets and he's not, you know, he's not Landry, Beckham, Hooper, Chubb's got to be on the field. Chubb has to be on the field. Are they going to be games where, you know, without a touchdown, Kareem Hunt disappears is my worry.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I think there will be games that he disappears. He had two busts games last year. But the thing is, is if you're talking about a guy in this range, a mid round running back, is this.

[Andy Holloway]

Where you think he'll go by the way, Absolutely.

[Jason Moore]

I do not, I do not think he will seventh. I don't, I don't think he will go much higher than this. He's been a value in every draft I've seen because of Nick Chubb. I just don't think people are going to really get on board and say, I need him. When you're in your draft and you're in those rounds, you're looking at your starting lineup and you're saying, man, there's a good starting wide receiver here, or maybe I'll grab a tight end or I'll, you know, I'll do these, these type of maneuvers where you're grabbing Hunt, where you don't need him to start, but on a bi week, on a flex, on a good matchup, you can start him anytime you want. And he is a home run league winning pick. Should something happen to Nick Chubb, who has been injured before and gets a ton of work. And to speak a little bit to your question about, well, I think Odell Beckham is going to bounce back. The offensive line has gotten so much better. Maybe, maybe there will be fewer passing attempts and the receiving options are what really make Hunt valuable because he's such a great receiving back. But as the offense gets better, it's only good for running backs. Usually more scoring opportunities down near the.

[Andy Holloway]

Goal line for Nick Chubb.

[Jason Moore]

Well, sure, Unless. Unless what happened last year with Nick Chubb's incredible inefficiency inside the 10 yard line says maybe we use this, this guy who, you know, led the NFL and broken tackles his rookie year and is great.

[Mike Wright]

Chubb was so bad inside the five last year, it was really funny.

[Jason Moore]

So I do, I like his value where he's going right now. You don't need him to start. You can start him and he's a league winning option, which, those are the picks that you really need to be looking for. And you know, we've talked a lot about the depth mattering more because of COVID Maybe it's not an injury. Maybe something happens and you know, Chubb has to take three weeks off. Well, boom, bam, you've got a great option in Hunt. Who would be, what would you say if Chubb was gone? If he, you know, right now said he's, he's opting out in the next hour. Where would Hunt go in the draft behind Clyde Edwards?

[Andy Holloway]

Alaire, probably running back 9, 10, 11.

[Mike Wright]

He would be a second round pick at the latest.

[Andy Holloway]

Would you pick if that situation happened, Aaron Jones or Kareem Hunt?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I would Take Kareem Hunt.

[Mike Wright]

I would take Kareem Hunt.

[Jason Moore]

He would be at the first.

[Andy Holloway]

To me it's tough for me between those two, but that's fair. Yeah, I mean and where he's going now, if that's where he goes, I mean it fits the Echler style mold where yes, you can see problems. Eckler might not get it around the goal line, blah blah blah. But Cream hunts a weapon. So yeah, I wonder where he will go on draft day.

[Jason Moore]

Also most important, today is his birthday. Happy birthday.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, let me guess, 25. Everybody's 25.

[Jason Moore]

He is as of today, 25.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, very nice. What a guess what I want, I.

[Andy Holloway]

Want to bring up Hollywood Brown. We've talked about him a lot on the show so I want to bring something a little bit different to the equation. He's right now being drafted according to Judge Giamatti in the late seventh round. I don't think that's where he's going to go at all. Probably higher or lower. Higher. Yeah, I think he'll go higher. And I understand it. I mean you're on one of the best offenses in football. When he was on the field he was extremely effective, big play type of guy. So I guess I'm going to start a fire and throw a little water on it. But I want this mid strange technique. No, the technique is important because when you're.

[Mike Wright]

Because you want steam, that's what you want.

[Andy Holloway]

That's exactly right. That's the whole point of the mid round steam. No, the illusion that you could be under the mistake that you could make with a mid round pick is, is to draft something, draft the player and believe he's something he's not. Right. And you have to have a realistic expectation of what you're getting when you add Hollywood Brown to your team. From an upside perspective, Jason's talked extensively. He's probably going to end up in one of Jason's my guy spots and right now he's a seventh round draft pick. But what are you actually, what's the upside for Hollywood Brown coming into season two? He ended up injury plague last year. He was the 46th wide receiver in his rookie season. I just wanted to take a look back and illuminate a little bit. Looking back at the draft class in 2017, looking at the draft class in 2018, all the wide receivers taken in the first three rounds for those two draft classes, what kind of jumps did we see from year one to year two? And that's 23 wide receivers. The 2017 draft class had Players like Chad Williams and Amara Darbos, Kenny Golladay.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And Chris Godwin, Mike Williams and a bunch of big names. But what was interesting to me, I went back and looked with no preconceived notions. I just wanted to see what kind of jumps took place. You had jumps last year. The big one would have been Cortland Sutton. Yeah, he went from 51 this year. Fantasy finishes in a half point 51 to 19. Okay. The biggest jump was DJ Chart finished the year at 16. That's pretty close to the highest finish you've seen from anybody coming into year two over the last two years. The only player to finish as a one was JuJu. He was the 16th ranked wide receiver his rookie year nine in his second year and that was a year in which Pittsburgh threw the ball more than anybody in football.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

A slightly different situation than Hollywood everybody else. Here's the ceilings that you get coming into year two. Even for the Calvin Ridley's Gallup Cooper cup injury plague. Chris Godwin jumped up to 20, Golladay up to 21. Curtis Samuel 48, Mike Williams up to 24. With the big second year jump you didn't see any of these players make the wide receiver one leap. So you just have to understand when you're getting Hollywood Brown there's so much excitement around it. But with the low passing volume, I think you just need to know that you're drafting a player. That ceiling is probably. Now we have him ranked. I wanted to bring this up. We have him ranked 29, 25 and 28. I think his ceiling is to finish at about wide receiver 20 for his which is an amazing value to get in the late seventh round. But if his ADP starts rising, if he gets client, if all the hype of year two excitement. We saw this with some players last year, we saw this with juju. It's just something to be aware of in my opinion.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think that's tempering the expectations. I love Hollywood. He's. He probably is going to be one of my, my guys because he's got the trifecta of I think they're going to pass the ball a little bit more. He is definitely going to be healthier and the year two leap of just getting better.

[Andy Holloway]

Which he should.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, absolutely. But you know, I don't think he's going to be a wide receiver one. The passing volume doesn't seem to be there so his upside is probably kept. How far back did that data go?

[Andy Holloway]

Just the last two sets of rookies that allowed for two years.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, I got you.

[Andy Holloway]

Last 23 players drafted in the first three rounds at wide receiver, which was a bit of a blast from the past. Dante Pettis.

[Jason Moore]

Brooks is my guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Traquan Smith is in that category.

[Jason Moore]

He's fast.

[Andy Holloway]

Z Jones.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Taywan Taylor, our Darius Stewart. Carlos Henderson.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, Carlos Henderson.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. But those players I kind of threw out of the, out of the mix because they didn't show up for year one. So you're probably not showing up for year two.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

But, but no, I mean Hollywood Brown. Not to, you know, just don't think that you can punt wide receiver is my point. And end up leading your. I don't think you can lead your team with Hollywood Brown. Let's say you go heavy RB and then you're looking at him as your one. I think that would be a mistake.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he's a good two and his ceiling is that 20 range. Well, the nice thing and the injury thing is something to be aware of too. But last year on pace for 125 targets before the injury and obviously Lamar Jackson loves him. And then there's the Antonio Brown piece of the puzzle too.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean he is right now the back of the seventh. So let's say he raises up and he costs you an early seventh. He, he can still be, he could be your wide receiver 4 easily at that point. So you're not drafting him to rely on him. And I do think that he's going to be a little bit more volatile in the sense that lower passing volume but huge gameplay ability to win you a week. And that's if you're taking your wide receiver three or four. That's kind of what you want more than just, you know, a Cole Beasley esque. I've got some, you know, I got a guaranteed nine points again.

[Andy Holloway]

I think a lot of. Yeah, I think a lot of people will be taking him in the fifth round, six round. But you're right and you know, that's what Mark Andrews is on that team by the way. He's not the kind of, you know, he's touchdown dependent, lower passing volume. He makes a big play but he can disappear as opposed to players like Kittle and Kelsey. So Hollywood, great target in the middle rounds. Mike, you're up.

[Mike Wright]

So speaking of first year wide receivers, I wanted to lay out a blind player comparison here for you guys.

[Andy Holloway]

So here were the Marvin Jones.

[Mike Wright]

How did you know it's going to be Marvin Jones?

[Jason Moore]

It's always Marvin Jones.

[Mike Wright]

It's not Marvin Jones. So here are some players. Two wide receivers, they were coming in the league and here their athletic profile. Okay. One wide receiver, six three, 220 pounds, ran a four, three, nine. Like that's absolutely incredible. His, his rookie season he put up 959 yards and eight touchdowns. That's an absolute great season.

[Jason Moore]

I think I know who that is.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. Okay, well, how about this rookie, 6 foot 210. So you know, comparable in size, not the exact same size. Ran a 4, 3, 5. And his rookie year he put up 919 yards and seven touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

What are we supposed to do here? What are we supposed to do here?

[Mike Wright]

I'm just, I'm just laying out that those are very, very close, right? Those are similar players, similar production their rookie year. That's Julio Jones and Terry McLaurin. They are both very large, they are both very athletic. There is a difference in perception though because Julio Jones was a top 10 pick and Terry McLaurin fell to the third round. So people still think about Terry McLaurin a little bit different and he is dropping down into the middle rounds and I think he is an absolute phenomenal target for a breakout. He wins in all aspects of the game as a wide receiver. Reception perception, which is, if you're not familiar with it, it is a methodology available in the ultimate draft kit that takes a look at route running by wide receivers. Matt harmon charted Terry McLaurin and said this is the third best rookie against press coverage that he has charted. The top two being Odell Beckham and Tyreek Hill. So that puts him in pretty solid company. Terry McLaurin should have easily hit 1,000 yards as a rookie. He unfortunately missed a few games and like I said, his comps in terms of production the rookie year, he's right next to Julio, he's right next to Juju, he's right next to Andre Johnson. He's a top 4% speed player. He is the absolute unquestioned number one on this team. You know, we had a little bit of that off season. Who was the player? It wasn't Antonio Brown, but they were Sammy Watkins. I think they were. There was rumor mill stuff that Sammy Watkins was going to go there. No. And then they had. They lost Kelvin Harmon to an acl. So they brought in Dontrell Inman. Antonio, have some Gandhi golden. Look, Terry McLaurin is the number one guy on this team and you might be thinking, okay, well, Dwayne Haskins, it's a situation. I get Dwayne Haskins, he's not My favorite quarterback heading into next year. But we saw signs that he was getting better. He did finish this. Dwayne Haskins, he finished with two divisional games with a passer rating over 120 in both of those games. Six of his seven passing touchdowns came in the final three games. Dwayne Haskins, the game started to slow down. He started to get better. Now he has an entire off season where he's the starter like you started off with Case Keenum. Haskins was going to be a project. They knew that he was forced in. But now he gets the, he gets the chance to shine and show that he's worth that top. I think it was a top 15 pick in the NFL draft. But Terry McLaurin, man, I don't, I don't fully understand his draft pick. Except for the Dwayne Haskins part, the talent, the production as a rookie. Guys don't, guys don't put up over 900 yards as rookies. Like, we get kind of jaded and think that it happens all the time, but it really does not. He had really, really strong monster production for a rookie. And I think that he, if he, like andy's talking about second year, if Terry McLaurin takes that step, like Terry McLaurin could be a top 20 wide receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, the fact he's the go to guy is important to the equation. I mean, when I think about more probable outcomes. To me, for Terry McClaurin, it's the Calvin Ridley experience. It's the great rookie season, identical second season. I mean, last year he had a lot of targets as a rookie. I mean, it was almost 100 targets in 14 games. I don't know if you want to see him stand next to Julio Jones physically, but I mean, you're not going to get complaints on the talent level on any, in any regard from Terry McClaurin's. Are you comfortable with him as you're two all season long?

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. And what is his ceiling? When you talk about year two, obviously he didn't, you know, his ceiling to.

[Mike Wright]

Me is a top 15 wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

Like.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Even in this, in this Washington situation.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. We have seen wide receivers when they're the unquestioned one, they are the target hog and they have the talent to match the opportunity. We've seen bad teams sustain huge outlier wide receiver one performances before.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I do think it will have to. It requires Haskins to step forward to really take, you know, if you look at this season, because in the realm of possibility, you say, okay, he was he was good with Haskins last year. He was about as good as he was with Keenum. Well, that's fine. But you're not drafting him to be what he was last year. Right? Now when you draft them, you have to. You're drafting him to be better than that, to take that step forward. And I don't think that can happen unless Haskins steps forward. I mean, you brought it up. You said you thought Haskins is the reason that he's not being drafted as a top guy. It is the reason, and I think it's a fair reason. But we like the talent. And you heard it. Here he is, Julio Jones, right? Terry McLaurin. Julio Jones. Incredible.

[Andy Holloway]

He meant to say Mike Wallace. Oh, no, he's great. I wanted to look at something real quick before we leave. Terry McLaurin, because I've been looking at it all week when thinking about players like McLaurin, because I don't think Washington is at the top of people's lists.

[Mike Wright]

For offenses to target, offenses to target.

[Andy Holloway]

Or teams that are going to be in the upper half of the NFL. Right. When you're thinking about records and where they're going to end up. But last year, if you take a look at who finished in the top 12, and I like looking at this at every position, teams that made the playoffs, that type of situation at wide receiver, you can do a lot of damage on a bad team. And that. That's kind of my point. I mean, you know, Cooper cup probably doesn't fit that mold. They didn't make the playoffs, but they weren't a bad team. Kenny Golladay was the sixth wide receiver last year. He was on a really bad team. Devonte Parker.

[Mike Wright]

Kenny Golladay also had a bad quarterback situation.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Devonte Parker finished seventh at the position. Keenan Allen finished eighth. Those were all losing teams. Allen Robinson finished 11th on a losing team. And, you know, Mike Evans, Jarvis Landry, the next two guys on that list, not great teams. So DJ Chark as well. So there is a precedent for players, obviously, in today's NFL where you're coming back where you're throwing the ball. It's one of the reasons you like DJ Chark, for them to be able to finish at that level.

[Jason Moore]

Love me a bad defense now. Fantasy loves a bad defense.

[Andy Holloway]

And over the course of the year, I wonder if that caps your, you know, boom games when you don't have a quarterback you can rely on to have that kind of monstrous, you know, performance where a team comes out. It's not like Washington is Going to come out and mop the floor with the opposition on an offensive perspective. So that three touchdown game, that monstrous.

[Mike Wright]

Game might not happen, but a three touchdown game, that. Yeah, I won't say there's going to be a lot of Those for Terry McLaurin, but built into Terry McLauren's talent and is one play. Yeah, he has, he has the desean Jackson ability to. One play. I've, I've made my. I've met my threshold for my fantasy points for the week. But on top of that, he's going to have a huge target share. It won't be just four targets a game for Terry McLaurin.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah. I think we're all fans of Terry McLaurin. The guy that I want to bring up is someone that is, I think right now criminally undervalued. He's probably. You said, who's your favorite mid round target? This guy is quickly becoming my favorite mid round target. It's Tyler Lockett Unlimited. Oh, my goodness. Oh, my goodness. Foot Clan. If you haven't seen these videos of Mr. Unlimited, what is happening? Russell Wilson is losing his mind.

[Andy Holloway]

No, he has to be trolling.

[Jason Moore]

He's trying to have a personality.

[Andy Holloway]

No, that's what's happening. That can't be a robot trying to have a personality.

[Jason Moore]

That's what you're seeing.

[Andy Holloway]

New software Unlimited.

[Mike Wright]

He's trying out his new AI chip.

[Andy Holloway]

There's no way that those are real.

[Jason Moore]

Here's the thing.

[Mike Wright]

Well, they're real because you could go watch things.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And he has filmed it and prepared questions from the background. I mean, this is a whole thing. This is new Alter ego.

[Mike Wright]

He still has not deleted the tweets. Like, they're still there.

[Jason Moore]

Oh.

[Andy Holloway]

Which is because he's so smart. He's trolling us. That has to be the only thing I can.

[Jason Moore]

Let me ask you this.

[Mike Wright]

I'm guessing there's gonna be more.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, there's definitely going to be more. You know how many Unlimited.

[Andy Holloway]

Sorry, that's not fair to you. It's not fair to Tyler.

[Jason Moore]

But here's the thing about Russell Wilson. He's a pretty freaking good quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, he's very good.

[Jason Moore]

He's. Would you say he's the number two quarterback in the league? That's how I view him. Maybe three, if you. Lamar Jackson certainly should be in that range right now. But my point is, he's phenomenal. He's going to get the job done. We don't know for sure if their defense is better or worse or the same as last year. But we do know that they're running back core is a little bit shakier coming into this season than last season. Rashad Penny is injured. The backup now is Carlos Hyde. Chris Carson is injured, but should be okay come season time. Tyler Lockett is exceptionally good. You talk about Mount Harmon's reception perception. He's always shown very well there as a wide receiver. Two years ago, he got the shot to be the one. He was the wide receiver 15 last year. Gets the shot to be the one. Oh, no. DK Metcalf comes in, puts up 907. Great. He was the wide receiver 14. He is a really good wide receiver. And that was. You talk about, well, there's limited passing volume. Well, there, there was. Yes, there was limited passing volume when he was correct.

[Mike Wright]

That happened.

[Jason Moore]

You are correct. And he was the wide receiver 14 and he was the wide. He's. He is a top 15 wide receiver. Like that's what Tyler Lockett is. And that's with the low passing volume. Should they let Russ Cook, which we've talked about recently, Maybe these videos are coming out because he's like, oh, I know some. They're going to take the reins off and I'm going to be Mr. Unlimited. If he has to throw more for any reason, let's say jealous of the Beast Mode brand.

[Mike Wright]

He's like, I got to get my own brand.

[Andy Holloway]

I know what to do.

[Jason Moore]

Keep searching.

[Andy Holloway]

Step one, motor oil in my hair. Step two, all right. I can't even take it.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, so Tyler Locke is being driven down by DK Metcalf. People are afraid. They don't know who the number one is, who the number two is. DK Metcalf is great. He's phenomenal for this offense. I think he's. I think they're both going to be very good. But in truth, he is ironically more limited when it comes to, you know, what he could do. He's not, he's not the every route wide receiver one on. You know, he's going to be looking for Tyler Lockett when that doesn't happen. He's got a big body in DK Metcalf. Tyler Lockett is being drafted well behind where he should finish. He is consistent as well. You talk about the inconsistencies, you know, last half of last year, Russell Wilson let us down for fantasy after that smoking hot start and you think, okay, well, is he consistent or is he going to give you a bunch of dud games? And the reality is he is actually pretty darn consistent. His bust Games, percentage wise over the last two seasons with that team is he's the 14th best as far as fewest bust games. And if you look at the guys ahead of him, you have Antonio Brown, which this only accounts games played. He was pretty good when he was playing Devonte Adams, Julio Jones, Hopkins edelman, Michael Thomas, A.J. green. Again, only counting the games that he played in Thielen, Robert woods and Mike Evans. This is a list of superstar fantasy options. And then it's Tyler Lockett. He has one of the highest rates of wide receiver, two plus games, one of the lowest rates of busting. He has the best quarterback or one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He's done it for two years in a row and people don't want him. I don't, I don't get it. I would love for him to be my wide receiver, too. That I can get after. After having three running backs on my roster.

[Andy Holloway]

So he gets a ceiling fatigue.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, it's a ceiling fatigue. It's, it's. He can't be a top five wide receiver.

[Mike Wright]

Thing is that you just like, if you line the players up, like if he stands behind DK Metcalf, you literally. You can't see him.

[Jason Moore]

No, you can't.

[Mike Wright]

He just disappears.

[Andy Holloway]

Or if he stands behind Terry McLaurin. Have you heard? Sure.

[Jason Moore]

Or Julio. He's. I mean, Tyler Lockett is not.

[Andy Holloway]

He's not a big boy, but he.

[Jason Moore]

If the targets came, let's just say this. The low passing volume. The low passing volume. He's been a top 15 wide receiver two years in a row. No reason to think he won't be a top 15 wide receiver this year. But let's just say that the passing volume does open up. That Pete Carroll says, All right, Russ, you've been begging for me to let you really lead the offense. We're going to change, and I don't think that that's a zero chance. I think that they could let Russell.

[Mike Wright]

Greater than 2%.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I think it's greater than 2%. But here's my point.

[Andy Holloway]

Metcalf should benefit more from that as well.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, every receiver would benefit if they let them throw the ball more. But the Locket is not viewed as a superstar talent the way that other wide receivers are. And he is the last 180 targets for Tyler Lockett. He has ended with 139 receptions, 2022 yards and 18. If you compare that with this, with the last 180 targets of Michael Thomas and Julio Jones, it's Michael Thomas would have 149 receptions, 1700 yards, nine touchdowns. Julio 118 receptions, 1600 yards and nine touchdowns. So on a per target pace, Tyler Lockett is incredible.

[Andy Holloway]

He reminds me a lot of Ty Hilton. The perception of Ty Hilton as well, you know, a player that's probably underestimated from a pure talent perspective. In part because he's not prototypical in size, in part because, you know, you know, Hilton's a smaller guy. He's probably the exact same size as Lockett. And both of those players don't fit the. I'm not DEZ Bryant or Julio Jones and I'm not Kenny Golladon. Jerry McLaurin, who's seven foot four.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. But you know, those, those stats to me just show he is a, he is a star talent. If they open the offense up, he does have upside that I don't think we realize. And shout out to Jacob Brick road on the 180 target pace.

[Mike Wright]

Ty Hilton, 510, 183. Tyler Lockett, 510, 182.

[Andy Holloway]

So I think I was kind of spot on there.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, if you were playing the game at the fair.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

You would have won.

[Andy Holloway]

If they put on each other's uniforms and swap teams, no one would notice.

[Jason Moore]

That's right.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And it's a good point, I think, at where he's going. You may see this every year because DK Metcalf draws a lot of attention and the ceiling fatigue isn't there. With DK Metcalf, the ceiling is unknown.

[Jason Moore]

With DK Metcalf, ironically, that is the player who I thought when you were giving Julio's rookie year, what was Julio's Rookie year again?

[Andy Holloway]

950 something.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Because. Because DK Metcalf was 907 and was big and random.

[Mike Wright]

Metcalf was 900. Julio was 959.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, it's interesting because the, you know, we talked on yesterday's episode about confidence associated to quarterback and that's where Metcalf stands out compared to a McLaurin is you have arguably the best quarterback. And if that's 2, 3, 4%, if you get unlimited Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf is going to do some damage and he's going to do it in the end zone. That's the biggest thing. It's like Russ has shown that he can throw more touchdowns than everybody else on fewer passes. It is just what in his DNA to do it sometimes at a very low probability. As announced by Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

So I'm going to throw Ronald Jones out there. It's been a long road for Ronald Jones and I. When he came into the NFL, he decided to make take the rookie season off. Right now he's going in the eighth round. That's a ludicrous point for him to be going. If things stand as they are right now, going into drafts, he's not going to be an 8th round draft pick.

[Mike Wright]

No, he's heating up.

[Andy Holloway]

He's heating up. I mean, Arians came out and talked about the fact that this was yesterday. This was full on hype train material.

[Mike Wright]

Be careful with the news.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, no question. But Arian said, look, Ronald Jones is going to be the guy. All the anecdotal evidence of his off season and the time he spent, the efficiency that he showed in the offense last year. The comical part about Ronald Jones and where he's going in drafts right now is the fact that he was literally what he finished as the running back 26 last year is that I don't.

[Mike Wright]

Have that in front of me.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he finished right around that 26 range and he's being drafted. That's about where we have him. I think that you have a situation with Ronald Jones where he's a guaranteed lock as a mid round value because you don't get running backs.

[Mike Wright]

Running back 26.

[Andy Holloway]

26. Yeah, you don't. And he's being drafted at 36 according to the ADP data we have today, which I think is kind of probably not going to come to fruition. But I brought it up earlier. The fourth round running backs last year they were Marlon Mack and Derek Henry in fantasy drafts. The fifth round running backs were Miles Sanders and Austin Eckler last year. That range of draft picks is a great place to find value at the running back position. Regardless of whether you invested heavily or lightly on running back to start the draft. They're the hardest position to come by. And you know, people want to project through two different lenses for Tampa Bay and I think both of them could cause you some issues. One is the Bruce Arians lens and what he does with the running back position. Do we trust that or do we trust kind of maybe more the Belichick? Maybe you give credit to Belichick or maybe it's Brady that likes to have this mix of players. When he was in New England, the only thing you saw in the backfield for Brady's running backs was big boy Ben Jarvis, Green Ellis, right. Jonas Gray, LeGarrett, Blunt. LeGarrett Blunt, Stephen Ridley, and then that was Always combined with pass catcher, Little boy Shane Vereen, Dion Lewis, James White, going back to Kevin Falk days. And so you've had that combination and really it's kind of shaping up to be that type of combination in Tampa Bay. So understanding what you get with Ronald Jones is I think you need to look at it through the lens if you're not getting a three down back under any circumstance. Yes, he was technically, statistically the best pass catcher out of the backfield. That's why you went out and drafted Keyshawn Vaughn. That's why you paid for Lashawn McCoy. Bruce Arians came out yesterday, talked about Ronald Jones, he talked about him as the guy and that means first and second down to me. I think the best lens to look at the backfield for Tampa Bay is not to look historically at everything Bruce Arians has ever done or everything Tom Brady's ever done. I think it's best to look through the lens of what will Tampa Bay be as an offense. Will they be able to move the football? Will there be scoring opportunities for this team? We think yes, they'll move the football. Yes, there'll be a winning team. Yes, they'll have goal line opportunities. Those three things combined with. Look, Lashawn McCoy is not going to be able to be your workhorse. Keshan Vaughn, the rookie is not going to be able to be your workhorse. For goodness sakes, Daria Gumbawale is not going to be your workhorse. Peyton Barber is gone. That puts a basement to Ronald Jones that I'm really, really comfortable with. Certainly at RB36 in the eighth round, where he's going now, but all the way up into the fourth, fifth round. I don't remember where you took him yesterday, Jason. In our three wide receiver mock.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it was probably a perfect fifth or sixth round.

[Andy Holloway]

Probably the perfect spot. I just think it's kind of a. It's a no brainer pick.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And no brainer pick and Ronald Jones in the same sentence have not been.

[Jason Moore]

Certainly nothing over the last couple years.

[Mike Wright]

When he was a rookie, it was a no brainer pick.

[Jason Moore]

Right. You don't have a brain if you pick him either way.

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely. But it's kind of impressive to look at what happened last year and this offense not being in those positions all the time with Peyton Barber in the mix and seeing Ronald Jones has enough explosive plays to get you a top 26 finish in fantasy. So I think he's very, very safe this year, which is kind of not necessarily the way you've looked at it. When you try to work out a murky backfield, you don't think there's a safe option. He feels very safe to me in the middle rounds.

[Jason Moore]

Murky backfields are where big step forwards come from. If you look back year after year and you go, we're not sure who's going to be the guy here, oftentimes someone becomes the guy. And I do agree with also where swamp monsters live.

[Mike Wright]

You put your hand in, sometimes it's covered in leeches.

[Andy Holloway]

Very murky.

[Mike Wright]

Sometimes you get the catfish.

[Andy Holloway]

You ever gone swimming in like, you know, where you can't see anything?

[Mike Wright]

I have swam in some Minnesota lakes where people come out with leeches. Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh man.

[Jason Moore]

Gross. People like every time or like it's possible.

[Mike Wright]

I didn't, I think, thankfully, I know.

[Jason Moore]

Does that make a difference to you?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it makes a difference.

[Andy Holloway]

Percentage odds. Would you swim in a lake with a 50% leech rate?

[Jason Moore]

If you're telling me that there's leeches in this water and someone has come out with one on them before, but you know, people are swimming all the time and they're not coming out with them, yeah, I might get in that water. But if this is like, hey, go swim. But you know this, you're coming out with leeches.

[Mike Wright]

My sister did though.

[Jason Moore]

Oh yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

No promises that you won't have a few leeches. In the Ronald Jones situation. He's, he's got leech potential. But Mike, why don't you close us down on this Mid Roll Madness, all right.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, the name was already mentioned but we got it. We got to talk about him. Wait, what's funny now?

[Jason Moore]

Mid Roll Madness.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, is that what I said? Yeah. All right, that's whatever.

[Mike Wright]

It's all the same. Who cares?

[Andy Holloway]

Nobody's listening anymore.

[Mike Wright]

I want to talk about DJ Chark who is going in the middle rounds. He is going right now as the wide receiver 22 at the back of the fifth round. This is a player coming off a thousand yard breakout season. I am hot and bothered under the collar by DJ Chark. Jason's pretty close with me as well. Andy is more balanced on his view of DJ Chark, but even Andy's like being a little bit more hesitant. Still ranked way, way above his adp. Like yeah, that DJ Chark to me is an absolute no brainer pick. Last year he finished as the wide receiver 16 and a half point in a really rough situation. There was quarterback to mold. The team was not great, the defense was bad and here's what he has going for him. I mean number one, he was a second round pick. The draft equity was there. Look, we all missed on DJ chart. Guilty. I like, I liked other players on this team. A lot of other fantasy players liked different wide receivers on this team.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Dee Dee, last year Nick Foles.

[Mike Wright]

And Chris Conley was a big free agent acquisition. But DJ Chark, athletic monster six four, 200 pound guy with top 4% speed. He's the one that broke out. I'm moving forward with that. They have, they have Jay Gruden as the offensive coordinator. Jay Gruden offenses have finished in the top 15 and passing touchdowns in six of his nine seasons. Like they are very productive offenses. D.J. chark even had an ankle, ankle injury that derailed the last 25% of his season. They will have to win with offense. And, and this is my attempt to try and convince Andy to move him.

[Andy Holloway]

Into my top 12. Like you guys.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no. Certainly not. But just have a little bit more confidence in him because have a little bit more confidence in what Gardner Minshew actually did. Like I have more, far more confidence in Gardner Minshew as a quarterback than I do in Dwayne Haskins when I'm talking about shark and McLaurin, which is why I have Chark ranked higher. But here's some interesting stuff for Gardner Minshew. We love Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray looked like a very good passer. Looked like he's going to turn into a very good passer at the quarterback position. Gardner Minshew averaged more passing yards per game than Kyler Murray. That includes the two games where he had to come in at relief like he didn't even get to play the whole game. He had more passing touchdowns than Kyler. He had a better passer rating than Kyler Murray. And this was with the Jacksonville defense. Already bad. They were the 21st ranked defense last year.

[Jason Moore]

So they had more wins than Kyler.

[Mike Wright]

He had more wins than Kyler Murray. And here's, here's the wild one. Now it's a little bit of a cherry picked stat, but I still like it. I still like it because it's fun. Only four rookies ever have thrown 20 plus touchdowns and under 10 interceptions their rookie year. Dak Prescott, Robert Griffin III, Dan Marino and Gardner Minshew. The dude was efficient. He had a bit of a fumbling problem. So like that's why I'm saying it's a bit cherry picked. He still turned the ball over, but when it came to passing, he was making good decisions. He loved going to DJ Chark. DJ Chark averaged eight targets a game. I think he is an absolute no brainer pick if you're looking for a wide receiver in the fifth and sixth round range.

[Jason Moore]

Here's Let me just piggyback because I think he is a no brainer pick. But I want to make sure and this Andy I think will love hearing me say this. I have him ranked as my wide receiver 12. That's just where the stats lie. I think that's has a high probability of being possible. That doesn't mean that I would draft him there. That is so far above his ADP that if you can draft him where he is actually, you know, going in your average draft, that's where the real value is on chart. Don't just reach for his potential.

[Andy Holloway]

The reason he's on your roster all the time is because of what you think of him compared to where you're able to get him correct. Look, Jacksonville is difficult. I like Jay Gruden. I've been an advocate of Jay Gruden for years while he's stuck in the kind of personnel. What do we, what are we using? Swamps? Is that the word? Is that the theme of the day in Washington for all those years? So there is this place where I have a lot of confidence in Jay Gruden to manufacture in offense. He's brought in some pieces that he likes. They drafted Chenault, they have Chris Thompson. The hard part with Gardner for me is Gardner was thrust into the situation. Teams had never seen him. His draft pedigree wasn't one that came in where it's like, man, this guy's a locked and loaded. He's a six round pick, right? He wasn't a guarantee to be take the next step in the NFL. So that's my hesitation with him. The numbers don't lie. He's had a really successful rookie season and when you compare it against other rookie seasons, he was wonderful. He did a great job and I think he can continue that. I also think DJ Chark is one of the players that reminds me most of a young A.J. green. I mean he's humongous. He makes contested catches consistently. I've got him at 18. I have no apologies for that. I think that's a great spot as ADP is 22 and he was somebody that carried fantasy rosters off the waiver wire. You talked about the quick question of the day to kind of put a bow on this whole episode spending on DJ Chark at the top of the year. Last year when you saw the breakout happening, it you know, I know Al Borland in the office. He picked up DJ Chark with some fab cash. I don't know what you had to spend on him, but he was a stalwart of your very, very bad lineup.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

For so many weeks you needed him bad. So it's obvious why you spent. And it was such a smart move considering your other roster, probably your best.

[Jason Moore]

Player off the waivers.

[Andy Holloway]

Only. Only here at the Fancy Footballers can we give credit and destroy you in the same sentence. But no. He had a breakout season. I think the. I think moving forward with him is the bona fide one on the team, especially with what he did specifically with Gardner is the way to go and he has a lot of upside. I hope Jay Gruden can like. I know Jacksonville fans don't like the way we talk about the team and projecting the future. And Mike might have picked wide receivers from the two teams that may finish with the. They may have the first and second pick in next year's draft.

[Mike Wright]

They might.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, they're.

[Mike Wright]

I don't care.

[Andy Holloway]

In contention, but, you know, and. But a lot of that falls on the defense. The defense has been decimated in Jacksonville. It's been completely stripped bare of that. Of that amazing roster that they had a couple years ago. Clay is out the door now, too. Maybe that'll mean some great things for Gardner. Certainly a possibility. I believe in Jay Gruden and I hope that Gardner is legit. Because the NFL needs him. Yes, because he's spectacular.

[Mike Wright]

He's a very fun guy.

[Andy Holloway]

And if he has a monster year and DJ Shark does, I don't know what we're going to do with Mike Wright, but he's going to have some. He's going to have some new tattoos. Final day of Pristine week. By the way, check them out@pristine auction.com use the code PW2020 $10 off your first item. Check it out. Pristineauction.com Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us us on Twitter @the ffballers.