Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: NFC North Breakdown + Buzzkill Train, Happy Hearts
Release Date: July 23, 2020

Introduction

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright delve into a comprehensive analysis of the NFC North division, addressing key fantasy football strategies and providing insightful projections for the upcoming NFL season. The discussion is rich with expert opinions, player evaluations, and actionable advice aimed at helping fantasy managers navigate their drafts and optimize their teams.

NFL Season Outlook

The hosts open with a sense of optimism for the NFL's return amidst the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. They discuss the adjustments the league is making to ensure player safety and the continuity of the season.

• Jason Moore shares his enthusiasm:
  "I went back and watched the Super Bowl this last weekend. It was just on NFL Network. I have never enjoyed watching a football game more in my life." [02:24]

• Andy Holloway emphasizes the importance of normalcy in sports:
  "It's not going to be normal. There's no way that it's going to be 100% normal. But that's okay. Now I'm just going to be football." [02:24]

They also touch upon the progress being made with training camps and the anticipation of leagues starting up, highlighting the community aspect of fantasy football.

COVID-19 Impacts on Preseason and Draft Timing

A significant portion of the discussion centers on how COVID-19 affects preseason games and fantasy football drafts.

• Andy Holloway makes a bold prediction:
  "This is the year. No catastrophic injuries in preseason games." [09:37]

• The hosts elaborate on the absence of preseason games, recommending that fantasy managers schedule their drafts late August or early September to minimize the risk of injuries disrupting their teams:
  "I would still recommend you push your draft as late as possible. Late August, early September..." [10:01]

They also discuss strategies for keeper leagues to handle potential season uncertainties, suggesting that leagues set clear rules for declaring winners based on a minimum number of games played.

Divisional Breakdown: NFC North

Green Bay Packers

The Packers' impressive 13-3 record is analyzed with a critical lens. The hosts question the sustainability of such success and its implications for fantasy football.

• Jason Moore notes:
  "They were not a 13 and 3 team as far as when you watch the games last year we were always so surprised week in and week out that they walked away with another victory they shouldn't have." [22:32]

• Andy Holloway discusses Aaron Rodgers' role:
  "The decline of Aaron Rodgers as being that elite fantasy football quarterback, which then of course means he has to be in the discussion every year now as a secret value." [23:56]

The duo evaluates the Packers' offensive dynamics, emphasizing Rodgers' consistency and the team's reliance on him for both passing and occasionally rushing touchdowns.

Chicago Bears

The Bears' offensive struggles are a focal point, particularly the uncertainty surrounding their quarterback situation.

• Andy Holloway critiques the offense:
  "Rushing yards per game, 27th in the league after being 11th in 2018, 28th." [25:00]

• The discussion highlights the competition between Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky as the starting quarterback, impacting fantasy manager decisions on relevant players like Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller.

Detroit Lions

The Lions' poor performance, marred by a 3-8 record and inconsistent quarterback play, is dissected.

• Andy Holloway expresses skepticism about the Lions' offensive prospects:
  "There is some sort of ramp up in physicality in the preseason games and you know, a lot of anecdotal evidence that the reduction in... hamstring injuries, pulled groin." [14:53]

• Jason Moore emphasizes Matthew Stafford's unreliable year:
  "Outlandish numbers. 4,998 yards, 38 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions." [55:06]

The hosts debate the fantasy value of Lions' players, particularly wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, noting their upside despite potential inconsistencies.

Fantasy Football Buy/Sell Advice

A practical segment where the hosts evaluate specific players for fantasy managers considering whether to buy or sell them.

Kareem Hunt

• Andy Holloway presents the scenario:
  "Kareem Hunt will have over 55 receptions this season. Are you buying or selling Kareem Hunt?" [05:06]

• Jason Moore argues in favor of buying Hunt, citing his potential role in Cleveland's offense:
  "He will be used more in the receiving game... He will have a career high in receptions." [05:38]

• Mike Wright remains cautious, opting to sell:
  "He has a role far more in the receiving game... So I think the passing volume in a Tyron-led offense is going to be far less." [06:28]

The debate underscores Hunt's versatility and potential workload in the new offensive scheme, offering fantasy managers differing perspectives based on their league formats.

Player Analysis and Projections

Devonte Adams

The unanimous agreement on Adams' elite fantasy value is a highlight.

• Jason Moore asserts:
  "He is 100% locked in as a superstar, should be drafted in the first round." [26:22]

• Andy Holloway reinforces this consensus:
  "There's nobody on earth that is having a question with whether Devonte Adams is an elite fantasy wide receiver." [26:57]

Adams is positioned as a must-have first-round pick, with the hosts detailing his projected breakout and consistent performance.

Aaron Jones

Jones' fantasy outlook is dissected, focusing on his touchdown consistency and role in the Packers' offense.

• Andy Holloway discusses Jones' scoring efficiency:
  "He can score outside of those goal line opportunities." [27:19]

• Mike Wright highlights his volatile performance:
  "He can rip off a couple really long touchdowns. But his numbers inside of the five are really not outlandish." [28:14]

The hosts project a regression in Jones' touchdown numbers due to changes in the Packers' offensive strategy, advising managers to adjust their expectations accordingly.

Cam Akers and Dalvin Cook

• Jason Moore shares high expectations for Akers:
  "I've got him with 64 receptions this year." [08:18]

• Mike Wright remains skeptical due to the Lions' rebuilt offensive line:
  "It's a completely different offensive scheme... I think it's going to be far less." [07:30]

Regarding Dalvin Cook, the hosts express confidence in his draft position, emphasizing his consistent performance and potential for high fantasy output if he remains healthy.

Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson

The analysis extends to the Vikings' quarterback situation and the impact on wide receivers.

• Andy's insight on Cousins:
  "The passing volume in a Tyron-led offense is going to be far less than the passing volume of a Baker-led offense." [08:38]

• Jason Moore questions Justin Jefferson's transition to the NFL:
  "Can he jump from a full-time slot wide receiver to an outside wide receiver in the NFL? That's a really big stretch." [38:49]

The discussion underscores the uncertainty surrounding Cousins' consistency and Jefferson's adaptation to the professional level, advising cautious optimism.

Team-Specific Fantasy Implications

Chicago Bears

The uncertainty between Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky as starters impacts the fantasy value of their receivers.

• Jason Moore allocates his roster accordingly:
  "I have eight games for Foles and eight games for Trubisky." [45:23]

• Andy Holloway emphasizes the reliability of receivers like Allen Robinson:
  "Allen Robinson can play with bad quarterbacks and still give you fantasy production." [48:42]

Detroit Lions

The potential roles of DeAndre Swift and Kerryon Johnson are debated, with considerations of Stafford's passing tendencies.

• Jason Moore prefers Swift over Johnson:
  "If I had to draft one, it would be Swift ahead of Carryon Johnson." [61:35]

• Andy Holloway highlights Swift's pass-catching ability as a key fantasy asset:
  "If he's on the field, he's giving him the opportunity to be the guy by being on the field more often." [60:32]

Fantasy Draft Strategy and Recommendations

The hosts provide strategic advice for fantasy managers, emphasizing the importance of drafting depth and valuing versatile players.

• Marvin Jones is recommended as a valuable late-round pick due to his affordability and potential for high-impact weeks:
  "Marvin Jones is being drafted to your bench... he can win you a week." [56:29]

• DeAndre Swift is suggested as a high-upside pick in leagues that reward pass-catching running backs, despite the uncertainty surrounding his role:
  "If DeAndre Swift hits the point where he's worth that shot, the same way that we've talked about some of these other rookie running backs." [60:48]

Conclusion

The episode wraps up with a final analysis of the NFC North, reiterating the importance of key players like Devonte Adams and Aaron Jones, while cautioning against overvaluing volatile stars. The hosts encourage listeners to stay adaptable in their strategies, considering the unique challenges posed by the 2020 NFL season.

• Jason Moore concludes with confidence in his player selections:
  "I've got him going up from that number in passing attempts. It's part of why I like Adam Thielen." [43:44]

• Andy Holloway emphasizes the need for fantasy managers to magnify opportunities for success:
  "You're always trying to, with your roster, just magnify opportunities for success." [42:24]

Overall, the episode serves as a valuable resource for fantasy football enthusiasts, blending in-depth analysis with practical advice to enhance their draft and in-season management strategies.

Notable Quotes

• "It's not going to be normal. There's no way that it's going to be 100% normal." — Andy Holloway [02:24]
• "He is 100% locked in as a superstar, should be drafted in the first round." — Jason Moore [26:22]
• "Marvin Jones is being drafted to your bench... he can win you a week." — Jason Moore [56:29]
• "DeAndre Swift hits the point where he's worth that shot." — Andy Holloway [60:48]
• "Aaron Rodgers is ranked 48th in completion percentage." — Andy Holloway [32:58]

This summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and recommendations from the Fantasy Footballers podcast episode, providing a comprehensive overview for both regular listeners and newcomers.