NFC North Breakdown + Buzzkill Train, Happy Hearts - Fantasy Football Podcast

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: NFC North Breakdown + Buzzkill Train, Happy Hearts
Release Date: July 23, 2020

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Introduction

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright delve into a comprehensive analysis of the NFC North division, addressing key fantasy football strategies and providing insightful projections for the upcoming NFL season. The discussion is rich with expert opinions, player evaluations, and actionable advice aimed at helping fantasy managers navigate their drafts and optimize their teams.

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NFL Season Outlook

The hosts open with a sense of optimism for the NFL's return amidst the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. They discuss the adjustments the league is making to ensure player safety and the continuity of the season.

• Jason Moore shares his enthusiasm:
  "I went back and watched the Super Bowl this last weekend. It was just on NFL Network. I have never enjoyed watching a football game more in my life." [02:24]

• Andy Holloway emphasizes the importance of normalcy in sports:
  "It's not going to be normal. There's no way that it's going to be 100% normal. But that's okay. Now I'm just going to be football." [02:24]

They also touch upon the progress being made with training camps and the anticipation of leagues starting up, highlighting the community aspect of fantasy football.

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COVID-19 Impacts on Preseason and Draft Timing

A significant portion of the discussion centers on how COVID-19 affects preseason games and fantasy football drafts.

• Andy Holloway makes a bold prediction:
  "This is the year. No catastrophic injuries in preseason games." [09:37]

• The hosts elaborate on the absence of preseason games, recommending that fantasy managers schedule their drafts late August or early September to minimize the risk of injuries disrupting their teams:
  "I would still recommend you push your draft as late as possible. Late August, early September..." [10:01]

They also discuss strategies for keeper leagues to handle potential season uncertainties, suggesting that leagues set clear rules for declaring winners based on a minimum number of games played.

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Divisional Breakdown: NFC North

Green Bay Packers

The Packers' impressive 13-3 record is analyzed with a critical lens. The hosts question the sustainability of such success and its implications for fantasy football.

• Jason Moore notes:
  "They were not a 13 and 3 team as far as when you watch the games last year we were always so surprised week in and week out that they walked away with another victory they shouldn't have." [22:32]

• Andy Holloway discusses Aaron Rodgers' role:
  "The decline of Aaron Rodgers as being that elite fantasy football quarterback, which then of course means he has to be in the discussion every year now as a secret value." [23:56]

The duo evaluates the Packers' offensive dynamics, emphasizing Rodgers' consistency and the team's reliance on him for both passing and occasionally rushing touchdowns.

Chicago Bears

The Bears' offensive struggles are a focal point, particularly the uncertainty surrounding their quarterback situation.

• Andy Holloway critiques the offense:
  "Rushing yards per game, 27th in the league after being 11th in 2018, 28th." [25:00]

• The discussion highlights the competition between Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky as the starting quarterback, impacting fantasy manager decisions on relevant players like Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller.

Detroit Lions

The Lions' poor performance, marred by a 3-8 record and inconsistent quarterback play, is dissected.

• Andy Holloway expresses skepticism about the Lions' offensive prospects:
  "There is some sort of ramp up in physicality in the preseason games and you know, a lot of anecdotal evidence that the reduction in... hamstring injuries, pulled groin." [14:53]

• Jason Moore emphasizes Matthew Stafford's unreliable year:
  "Outlandish numbers. 4,998 yards, 38 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions." [55:06]

The hosts debate the fantasy value of Lions' players, particularly wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, noting their upside despite potential inconsistencies.

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Fantasy Football Buy/Sell Advice

A practical segment where the hosts evaluate specific players for fantasy managers considering whether to buy or sell them.

Kareem Hunt

• Andy Holloway presents the scenario:
  "Kareem Hunt will have over 55 receptions this season. Are you buying or selling Kareem Hunt?" [05:06]

• Jason Moore argues in favor of buying Hunt, citing his potential role in Cleveland's offense:
  "He will be used more in the receiving game... He will have a career high in receptions." [05:38]

• Mike Wright remains cautious, opting to sell:
  "He has a role far more in the receiving game... So I think the passing volume in a Tyron-led offense is going to be far less." [06:28]

The debate underscores Hunt's versatility and potential workload in the new offensive scheme, offering fantasy managers differing perspectives based on their league formats.

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Player Analysis and Projections

Devonte Adams

The unanimous agreement on Adams' elite fantasy value is a highlight.

• Jason Moore asserts:
  "He is 100% locked in as a superstar, should be drafted in the first round." [26:22]

• Andy Holloway reinforces this consensus:
  "There's nobody on earth that is having a question with whether Devonte Adams is an elite fantasy wide receiver." [26:57]

Adams is positioned as a must-have first-round pick, with the hosts detailing his projected breakout and consistent performance.

Aaron Jones

Jones' fantasy outlook is dissected, focusing on his touchdown consistency and role in the Packers' offense.

• Andy Holloway discusses Jones' scoring efficiency:
  "He can score outside of those goal line opportunities." [27:19]

• Mike Wright highlights his volatile performance:
  "He can rip off a couple really long touchdowns. But his numbers inside of the five are really not outlandish." [28:14]

The hosts project a regression in Jones' touchdown numbers due to changes in the Packers' offensive strategy, advising managers to adjust their expectations accordingly.

Cam Akers and Dalvin Cook

• Jason Moore shares high expectations for Akers:
  "I've got him with 64 receptions this year." [08:18]

• Mike Wright remains skeptical due to the Lions' rebuilt offensive line:
  "It's a completely different offensive scheme... I think it's going to be far less." [07:30]

Regarding Dalvin Cook, the hosts express confidence in his draft position, emphasizing his consistent performance and potential for high fantasy output if he remains healthy.

Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson

The analysis extends to the Vikings' quarterback situation and the impact on wide receivers.

• Andy's insight on Cousins:
  "The passing volume in a Tyron-led offense is going to be far less than the passing volume of a Baker-led offense." [08:38]

• Jason Moore questions Justin Jefferson's transition to the NFL:
  "Can he jump from a full-time slot wide receiver to an outside wide receiver in the NFL? That's a really big stretch." [38:49]

The discussion underscores the uncertainty surrounding Cousins' consistency and Jefferson's adaptation to the professional level, advising cautious optimism.

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Team-Specific Fantasy Implications

Chicago Bears

The uncertainty between Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky as starters impacts the fantasy value of their receivers.

• Jason Moore allocates his roster accordingly:
  "I have eight games for Foles and eight games for Trubisky." [45:23]

• Andy Holloway emphasizes the reliability of receivers like Allen Robinson:
  "Allen Robinson can play with bad quarterbacks and still give you fantasy production." [48:42]

Detroit Lions

The potential roles of DeAndre Swift and Kerryon Johnson are debated, with considerations of Stafford's passing tendencies.

• Jason Moore prefers Swift over Johnson:
  "If I had to draft one, it would be Swift ahead of Carryon Johnson." [61:35]

• Andy Holloway highlights Swift's pass-catching ability as a key fantasy asset:
  "If he's on the field, he's giving him the opportunity to be the guy by being on the field more often." [60:32]

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Fantasy Draft Strategy and Recommendations

The hosts provide strategic advice for fantasy managers, emphasizing the importance of drafting depth and valuing versatile players.

• Marvin Jones is recommended as a valuable late-round pick due to his affordability and potential for high-impact weeks:
  "Marvin Jones is being drafted to your bench... he can win you a week." [56:29]

• DeAndre Swift is suggested as a high-upside pick in leagues that reward pass-catching running backs, despite the uncertainty surrounding his role:
  "If DeAndre Swift hits the point where he's worth that shot, the same way that we've talked about some of these other rookie running backs." [60:48]

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Conclusion

The episode wraps up with a final analysis of the NFC North, reiterating the importance of key players like Devonte Adams and Aaron Jones, while cautioning against overvaluing volatile stars. The hosts encourage listeners to stay adaptable in their strategies, considering the unique challenges posed by the 2020 NFL season.

• Jason Moore concludes with confidence in his player selections:
  "I've got him going up from that number in passing attempts. It's part of why I like Adam Thielen." [43:44]

• Andy Holloway emphasizes the need for fantasy managers to magnify opportunities for success:
  "You're always trying to, with your roster, just magnify opportunities for success." [42:24]

Overall, the episode serves as a valuable resource for fantasy football enthusiasts, blending in-depth analysis with practical advice to enhance their draft and in-season management strategies.

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Notable Quotes

• "It's not going to be normal. There's no way that it's going to be 100% normal." — Andy Holloway [02:24]
• "He is 100% locked in as a superstar, should be drafted in the first round." — Jason Moore [26:22]
• "Marvin Jones is being drafted to your bench... he can win you a week." — Jason Moore [56:29]
• "DeAndre Swift hits the point where he's worth that shot." — Andy Holloway [60:48]
• "Aaron Rodgers is ranked 48th in completion percentage." — Andy Holloway [32:58]

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This summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and recommendations from the Fantasy Footballers podcast episode, providing a comprehensive overview for both regular listeners and newcomers.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, Foot Clan. Drafts are happening. The NFL's happening this year and it's time to get into the ultimate draft kit. Right now, head over there. Ultimatedraftkit.com the number one draft tool for the upcoming fantasy draft season. Jason, you're very interested in that part of the year, that time of year.

[Jason Moore]

It is the best time of the year and it is quickly approaching and.

[Andy Holloway]

You'D like to be prepared, you'd like to be ready to go with the hundred plus player profile videos. I'm sure that you, you were even.

[Jason Moore]

A part of some of those. I have actually participated in each one and they. Awesome.

[Andy Holloway]

Check it all out@ultimate draftkit.com.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Back with you for Thursday, July 23rd. Andy, Mike and Jason, great show for you today. Back in the divisional breakdowns. Feeling pretty good?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

How you doing, Jay?

[Jason Moore]

I'm doing very well. Happy hearts, optimism for the season. Training camp right around the corner.

[Andy Holloway]

You got more than one heart.

[Jason Moore]

Happy hearts all around.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, just all around. Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

He says we have happy hearts as well.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true.

[Mike Wright]

Like, that's a bold thing for you to proclaim, Jason. You don't know my heart, but I.

[Jason Moore]

Still speak for you. Mike, you're in a little tiny corner on our video and I'm in the studio. So your heart is supes happy right.

[Andy Holloway]

Now where there's a lot of optimism happening right now with regards to the season and getting some of that normalcy that sports represents back into your life. Other leagues starting up. NFL is making some progress and you know, we want a safe and enjoyable. It's not going to be normal. There's no way that it's going to be 100% normal. But that's okay. Now I'm just going to be football.

[Jason Moore]

It might be, and I mean this genuinely, it might be better than normal. I'm not saying it's better to be, you know, with less fans, but I went back and watched the super bowl this last weekend. It was just on NFL Network. And I have never enjoyed watching a football being thrown and caught and tackles being made more in my life. I was like, what is this game? It's incredible.

[Andy Holloway]

Does it seem much further back than February? I mean, just like that was, that.

[Jason Moore]

Was a game from the first super bowl ever played. That's what I watched and it was awesome.

[Andy Holloway]

So much time's taken place. I know it is weird. I've seen some highlight videos this week and it's just like, I'm ready. I'm ready to enjoy that kind of communal viewing experience. You never think people will get tired of watching Netflix shows, but there's nothing live anymore. And if you get the live sports out there and Hard Knocks.

[Jason Moore]

Hard Knocks still happening somehow. This is amazing.

[Andy Holloway]

And that's two camps, right, Mike? That's.

[Mike Wright]

Well, yeah, it's Rams and Chargers, Los Angeles teams.

[Andy Holloway]

That's exciting. That's exciting. So there is. There's a lot going on. I want to invite you, if you're a new listener, welcome in to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. We're happy you're with us preparing for your upcoming drafts and a very fun season. Want to encourage you to click that subscribe button.

[Jason Moore]

You won't regret it.

[Andy Holloway]

No, no. I mean, it's completely free and it's just a click. Well, you get all the episodes unless.

[Mike Wright]

You over click and like injure your finger.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true. There could be a small.

[Mike Wright]

Just trying to protect us from lawsuits. Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think that happens to people. I really don't.

[Jason Moore]

It was a first for everything.

[Andy Holloway]

YouTube.com the fantasy footballers. You can check us out on Spotify on audio and video on Spotify, which is exciting. The Fantasy Footballers, one of a very select few shows on Spotify that now has the video version of the podcast available to you. So that's pretty cool. And then I wanted to say congratulations to Andrew D. Who was the winner of the Devonte Adams jersey. We just gave that [e-mail] Andrew D. Congratulations. That's in the mail. It's on the way. Big bounce back season expected for Devonte Adams.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yes, of course.

[Jason Moore]

He could very easily be the number one wide receiver in football. And we're going to talk about him today.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. Divisional breakdown. So let's do some buy sell first.

[Jason Moore]

Buy or sell presented by Pristine Auction.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I see what the judge is doing here with the buy sell question. A little bit of fan service. His buy or sell is as follows. Kareem Hunt will have over 55 receptions this season. Are you buying or selling Kareem hunt more than 55 receptions? I will throw this out there. Eight games in Cleveland last year, 44 targets, 37 receptions, and that would be.

[Jason Moore]

A career high if he hit 55. Even his incredible rookie season when he started all 16 games and had 1327 rushing yards, he still only had 53 receptions. So I think you look at this number and now you see he's not a workhorse back and you're likely to sell. I am buying that. He will have a career high in receptions. Personally, the news out of Cleveland of him possibly being the third wide receiver. Coaches have talked about this. He's been in all the receiver meetings. He will be used as a running back. He will be lined up in the slot. And while he won't be the workhorse back, that's obviously the first and second down work is Nick Chubbs. He. His role is going to be far more in the receiving game.

[Mike Wright]

Sorry, I thought you were calling him Nick Chubbs. I wasn't. I didn't realize an apostrophe.

[Andy Holloway]

He was a possessive.

[Jason Moore]

You gotta, you gotta see my posterior.

[Andy Holloway]

This is a. Despite the fact that Brooks was just pandering to the 55 lovers out there.

[Mike Wright]

How dare you.

[Andy Holloway]

It's the right line. I mean, his previous career high was 53 receptions in his rookie year, 37 in just eight games. Obviously that paces out above this number. I'm going to sell it. I think he's going to be close, but I think it'll be, you know, maybe 50, 51. I don't think he's going to get there. Mike, what are you doing?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I have him down for 50 receptions. I get that. You know, his, his pace was absolutely insane, but this is a very new team. This is a rebuilt offensive line. It's a completely different offensive scheme. So it. I won't say it's impossible, but I'm not going to Project 55 will happen.

[Andy Holloway]

That surprised me. I thought you were going to be a big time buy there.

[Mike Wright]

I love Kareem. I love grabbing him in drafts, but.

[Andy Holloway]

He'S not just under the Austin Eckler model. I figured he would fall in line with the potential.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, I have him pretty well above that. I've got him with 64 receptions this year, which seems, you know, obviously that's much.

[Andy Holloway]

You love him.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I do think. Look, I mean, he was, you know, this is. With the exception of Austin Hooper being added to the team, this was still okay. There's a new coaching, you know, regime in place. But it was. Odell was there, Jarvis was there. Baker was the one throwing on the ball. Chubb was there, and he was on pace for 74 receptions. So, you know, I think 64 is. Is a fair projection for 2020.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Yeah. No, no. Austin Hooper last year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I said how many receptions.

[Andy Holloway]

Odell Beckham was hurt.

[Mike Wright]

So how many receptions do you have Eckler down for Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, no. Oh, no. By the way, Kareem hunt the running back, 29 in best ball drafts right now.

[Mike Wright]

I think it's a fair price.

[Andy Holloway]

And you know, he's going to go as far as Baker goes. I mean the quarterback position is what matters here. Are they going to move the football or are they going to be off the field? I mean, I think they have an okay defense.

[Jason Moore]

You have a well placed question, Mike. I have Austin eckler down for 64 receptions, so I have them both being used the same in the passing game. I think the passing volume in a Tyron led offense is going to be far less than the passing volume of a Baker led offense.

[Andy Holloway]

I think there's some thought that Cleveland's volume goes down though. And then you mix Hooper in there. I think it's a good line. I think 55 is a good line. You've got them for 300 receptions.

[Jason Moore]

So there you go. One buy, two sells.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, that was by ourselves from pristine auction. Pristineauction.com use the code. Ballers get a $10 credit. Let's talk some news.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, it's not often I use my powers to make a promise on this show to guarantee our listenership, our the fantas out there, you know, good fortune. But I'm going to make the guarantee right now. I this is the year. No catastrophic injuries in preseason games. Wow.

[Jason Moore]

Actual games in games. I mean, that's pretty bold.

[Andy Holloway]

But I'm going to go out on a limb because there will be none. Right? The NFL and the NFLPA have agreed to zero preseason games. We were talking before the show, Jason. You know, a lot of the way fantasy owners, commissioners, leagues navigate their draft schedule, like when they're going to actually, you know, get together or maybe this year it's going to be a zoom draft. But you navigate it almost by that benchmark of that third, fourth preseason week, trying to avoid that. You know, you hear the stories of, you know, we've had a draft right in the middle of, I think it was preseason week three one time because it just lined up. That was the only time we could get together was right in the middle of the games. And players are going to get hurt.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's true. But players get hurt in camp, players get hurt, you know, in practice. So that will still be happening during the time. And because the schedule has been moved up, I would still recommend you push your draft as late as possible. Late August, early September, kickoff of week one, I believe is September 10th, which could very well.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, it's probably going to be that date, but it could be pushed back too.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So assuming it's, then I would say right there, that August, September changeover, that's where you want to aim for your drafts. Avoid the players that do get injured in camp and practice and have your rosters ready to go.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Draft timing is all about just trying to create the best level playing field so people aren't, you know, you draft in week one, two or three, four players get injured and it really disrupts.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's just, it's not fair. It's not, it's really, it's really sucky when it's like you, you draft your team and before anybody has played, your team is different. Now I don't, I lost player X, Y or Z and nothing has been played yet. I didn't get anything at him there.

[Andy Holloway]

And maybe we should talk also about some of the things we've done in our league of record because this is happening every day. You know, we're having these discussions about how to adjust your league for Covid and the coronavirus and what's taking place in player safety. We talked about the IR spot and some of those updates on the last episode of the show. Today we, we're in a keeper league. So we had a discussion on, you know, in our league today about what if. Because you have to have the what if. I mean, what. That's the, the banner of 2020, is it not? It's 2020, colon. What if. Because everything that seems to be able to happen has happened. What if you don't have a complete season? How do you look to the future for draft order and things like that? And we made a decision to vote on kind of when we would declare a winner. You know, if there were eight games in an NFL season this year, we're willing to declare a winner and then use those standings in reverse for draft order next year.

[Jason Moore]

Right. And it's really unique for keeper leagues because if you're in a redraft league, it's, you know, it's not going to make a big difference. And if you're in a dynasty league, you're, you're, it's much easier to deal with this. You, you know, you go by what the NFL is doing. But in a keeper league where you have draft pick trading, you know, and people are stacked in this year's draft and they're getting the early round picks, you do have to kind of have that threshold. Eight games is what we're going with. But yeah, I mean, it's one of those things we'll help walk everyone through as we get closer to the season. Some best practices for your leagues to set up and what we recommend. And we would also love to hear what you are doing in your leagues. You know, sometimes we get feedback and we're like, that's a brilliant idea. And we can disseminate that information out to thousands of fantasy football fanatics.

[Andy Holloway]

59 players tested positive according to the NFLPA 95 total staff and players. 59 players known positives in their most recent round of testing. They're going to be testing daily for two weeks and if the positive rate falls below 5% it will drop to every other day.

[Jason Moore]

And that number is good. That's well below 5%.

[Andy Holloway]

59 is, I believe like 2.4% of what I.

[Mike Wright]

Around there.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, somewhere around there. And that's a little bit lower than numbers that they had tested out a week ago. These are, this is what the NFL is going to be looking at as they adjust and manage the player safety. But we're on track, we're on track there. Every day it seems like another piece to the strange 2020 season puzzle comes together. Roster sizes are expected to be limited to 80 to begin training camp. Is there any other Covid related news? I don't think we have anything else there.

[Mike Wright]

No, not, not Covid related news. Just of like, man, it's like you said, it was a rough year and with no preseason for these like fringe guys, these Philip Lindsey's, you know, it that's, it's really, really unfortunate that this is.

[Andy Holloway]

Well and I, you know, I thought you were going to bring up the fact that it's also potentially unfortunate just from player injury standpoint. You know, there is some sort of ramp up in physicality in the preseason games and you know, a lot of anecdotal evidence that the reduction in the, you know, in some of the amount of the physical practices has led to players dealing with, you know, we see the hamstring injuries, we see the kind of even not the catastrophics but the, you know, pulled groin. You know, those kind of two, three week injuries happen a lot of the times in camp. Preseason beginning part of the year, you know, it's football so players are going to get hurt and so hopefully it doesn't go up because of the lack of play time. One other bit of news, Sean McVay hinting at using a four man backfield. Basically. McVeigh was just talking about. What are you hyping?

[Jason Moore]

Is that the John Kelly train?

[Mike Wright]

No, no, I'm saying. But this is this is just hype train stuff like this.

[Andy Holloway]

This is the opposite of a hype train. This is the, like, this is a sad train. This is a train with no coal in the engines. This is like.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, I just wanted to highlight that we were talking about some coach speak that may or may not be true. Jason, I think that, like, you were all in on Cam Acres and after the draft that he got picked up by the Rams. And I've slowly been warming to the idea, but now it's. Now I'm like going, you know, Paul Abdul style, two steps forward, two steps back. It's like, I don't know what to make of the Rams running back attack. And you see what I did there. Finished off the Ram.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that was well done. Very professional. Yeah. I mean, I was a big fan of Cam makers, his college tape and the landing spot, everything. The more that, you know, this offseason, however, since then has gotten truncated. The more I buy into these kind of reports. I don't think it's going to be easy for a rookie to come in and just completely, you know, have the job from week one. And so if Darryl Henderson is involved, if Malcolm Brown is, you know, happens to be the more valuable fantasy option for the first few weeks of the season, I won't be surprised. And he's completely undrafted, even in dye weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

Just to weigh in myself, this. This is just McVeigh saying in a different way what we expected this backfield to be. None of us thought Cam Akers was starting day one, getting the Todd Gurley role.

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

So he cited the success of the 49ers backfield. There's still fantasy value in the 49ers backfield, and I believe Cam Akers is far and away the best talent on that in that backfield. So it hasn't changed a lot from my perception. I think he earns that job. It just. Is it three weeks? It's the same question we have for Jonathan Taylor and Clyde Edwards allaire.

[Jason Moore]

And remember, McVeigh was coaching teammates with Shanahan back in Washington, so he's looking at his buddy's offense getting to the Super Bowl. You know, if he's citing that, he obviously respects Shanahan quite a lot as a coach.

[Mike Wright]

So just real quick to follow up on that. Cam Akers right now, best ball, running back, 26. So going one spot behind Raheem Mostert, one in front of Mark Ingram, a.

[Andy Holloway]

Few spots ahead of Kareem Hunt.

[Mike Wright]

A few spots ahead of Kareem Hunt.

[Andy Holloway]

That's pretty high that's why I thought.

[Mike Wright]

This news is important.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I've got him as my running back 30 right now. So that, that would be higher than what I see. But his range of outcomes should he get the job is much higher than.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And I, you know, we use the best ball ADP because those drafts are happening most frequently now. This is one of those areas where I'm not sure that I give it as much credence as to what will really happen. Cam makers is a rookie. The payoff in a best ball league is if you, if you get seven, eight weeks of him being the main guy.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

That's worth that 26 running back spot for what the top end might be. It is interesting though. That's a pretty, that's a pretty high spot. I'm curious where he'll actually end up. I think he's very talented, but maybe that's how they manage some of the injury stuff in the NFL this year is more of the committee approach.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Will just mean you'll have to be more astute. Foot clan.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, certainly.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. We want to thank Omaha Steaks always, always for supporting the show. They're offering a steakhouse grilling package with an exclusive offer just for our listeners. If you listen to Jason the other day you learned that he had three freezers so that he wouldn't be caught off guard by the amount of meat that he would purchase.

[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

How often do you buy bulk Omaha steaks and then just forget that you bought them? So you buy them again and then you get double deliveries like when you.

[Mike Wright]

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[Andy Holloway]

I already got that.

[Mike Wright]

And then, Jason, do you need steaks?

[Jason Moore]

I've never once forgotten that I have them, but I have ordered them while already having some and be like, I could use more.

[Andy Holloway]

That makes sense. And so we're talking the Omaha steaks bacon wrapped filet mignon, the pork chops, the chicken, the kielbasa sausages and more delivered to your door, including the smoky sweet bacon fork tender flamingon. Oh, much cheaper than going out to a restaurant. You get to enjoy a variety of delicious meat at your house. And this is. You've taken to grilling like nobody I know. Jason, you have become, what do you, you call yourself a chef. Now, I don't know if that is the leap that you should be making, but I had a steak that you made and it was pretty darn good. You can visit Omaha steaks.com type footballers in the search bar to shop the Summer Grill packs today. Don't forget when you order the Grand Summer Grill out package, you also get four Jumbo Franks and four Omaha Steaks Burgers free to complete your SteakHouse experience. Omaha Steaks.com type footballers in the search.

[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

All right, we're in the NFC north on our divisional breakdown shows starting with the 13 and three fake Green Bay Packers.

[Mike Wright]

13 and three.

[Andy Holloway]

I was going to praise them before saying those things that you just said.

[Jason Moore]

What are you talking about?

[Andy Holloway]

I heard somebody say the word fake.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, because the Green Bay packers aren't as good a team as a 13 and 3 record would say.

[Andy Holloway]

13 and 3 is tough to pull off. I'm just starting there.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Very fortunate. In those close games they were nine and one in one score games. That is not in a vacuum. You do have Aaron Rodgers as your quarterback and I think that that is a differentiator. When you have a, you know, one of the best quarterbacks in football leading your team in terms of one score games, but still nine and one, that's tough to pull off.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, when you have a good defense, which they did a lot this last year to improve their defense, I think it's a, you know, an above average defense for sure and you have Aaron Rodgers, you can be a good team. But they were not a 13 and 3 team as far as when you watch the games last year we were always so surprised week in and week out that they Walked away with another victory they shouldn't have. And again, you're right. When you have Aaron Rodgers, you know, if this is an 8 and 8 team, you automatically say, well they're 9 and 7 or 10 and 6 because they've got a first ballot hall of fame quarterback. So that makes sense. But all the breaks went their way. Nine and one in one score games. That's one of those metrics that when that happens, it will unravel the following year. But could that be good for the passing game? Right. Because look, when you're 13 and three and everything's breaking your way, that's how you end up with Aaron Jones rushing for 100 touchdowns. That's just not going to be able to happen. If not all the breaks go their way, they'll have to throw the ball a little bit more.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know. I don't know. I don't know how to feel about the packers because you've had this degradation of offensive passing output year over year. The decline of Aaron Rodgers as being that elite fantasy football quarterback, which then of course means he has to be in the discussion every year now is, you know, secret value. Aaron Rodgers, because any week he could throw five touchdowns. He did that a couple times last year. But reliability wasn't there. He's the quarterback. 12 off the board right now, ninth round pick. Things we never thought we would say about him. They added Devin Funches to the roster. They lost Jimmy Graham. It seems like about a wash. That's better. It seems like a wash.

[Jason Moore]

I would rather have Funchester than Jimmy Graham.

[Andy Holloway]

I wouldn't. No, no, no. Just because of the, I mean the role that that tight end position plays on a down by down basis versus, you know, what is, what is Devin Funches for this team.

[Jason Moore]

Devin Funchester, the wide receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

4. Yeah. He's not lining up as a tight end. He's not, you'd. He's not blocking. He's not doing.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, same as Jimmy Graham.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe neither one of them is going to be blocking much, but it does. You know, with Jimmy Graham out, you obviously have. Some people are really enamored with Jay Sternberger and the ability to break out here you've got vacated targets that Jimmy Graham left. Jay Sternberger was a very. I liked him as a college prospect, specifically with his receiving work. And I think he's a late round guy that you're probably not drafting, but you want to keep an eye on him.

[Andy Holloway]

I was going to say, I don't have any advice for Jane Sternberger because I think that there's, you know, you start one tight end. We have seen him have no success. We can like him as a prospect, but. Did you say. Did I call him Jane?

[Jason Moore]

That's what I heard. Jane Sternberg.

[Andy Holloway]

Jace.

[Mike Wright]

Jace. Making sure Jace is on the case.

[Andy Holloway]

I feel like Jane is just one step away from Mary Steenbergen again and then we're.

[Mike Wright]

That might have been what your brain did.

[Andy Holloway]

There's just so many tight ends that you've seen some evidence of their success that you can take that very late round shot on. I can't imagine there being practical use in drafting Jace.

[Jason Moore]

Sure. And I agree. It's just a name that if he has a good week one you should be aware of.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

The other big names on this roster are mostly easy to deal with. Right.

[Andy Holloway]

We're all.

[Jason Moore]

Are we all three all in on devonte Adams? Because the way that I look at it, he is 100% locked in as a superstar, should be drafted in the first round. Phenomenal fantasy option going forward. Are there any disagreements here or can we just move on?

[Mike Wright]

Not from me. Not. Not from me.

[Andy Holloway]

In late, he was a 30 anywhere.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

There's nobody on earth that is having a question with whether devonte Adams is an elite fantasy wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

Right. So we don't need to talk about him. The big question is Aaron Jones.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

He was phenomenal last year. The running back, two or three, depending on your scoring. He was a touchdown machine, super efficient. He, you know, was someone that was touted going into last year as if they would only give him the work, he'd be great. But now you have all the touchdown. The touchdowns are going to come down.

[Andy Holloway]

Third in fantasy points per game, 14th in touches per game. So he did a little bit more with the opportunities given him than others were able to do. And over the course of his career, he. You have 55% of his rushing touchdowns that have come from six or more yards away. So he's been one of those players. Saquon's one of them. Kenyon, Drake, Raheem Mostert, those are the only three players that have higher rates than Aaron Jones. He can score outside of those goal line opportunities. Where we've seen Aaron Rodgers be able to sneak the ball at times. Where we've seen, you know, this is one of those things you bring up with whatever Philip Lindsey, Devin Singletary, players that you're like, oh, man, they need to break off a long run or they're not going to get the chance. Jones has done it consistently, but it's More volatile the way he delivered this. Third in fantasy points per game number a little bit.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he was, he definitely was not consistent. But I will say.

[Andy Holloway]

But he's weak winning.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he was definitely weak winning. He has the home run ability so he can rip off a couple really long touchdowns. But his numbers inside of the five as far as like attempts and success of turning those into touchdowns is, is really not outlandish. So you know you have 17 carries from the five are in. He has any 10 touchdowns in those carries. But you know, guys like Zeke, 18 carries, 10 touchdowns. Christian McCaffrey, 20 carries, nine touchdowns. So what could be fluky is that he actually had that many attempts inside the five compared to these other guys. When you look at like just his overall volume and how much he's on the field, but his efficiency inside the five, isn't this just absolute outlier of a number? So I'm still in on Aaron Jones. I'm not really concerned about A.J. dillon and I'm definitely not concerned about Jamal Williams coming in. When, when they get those opportunities. The, the question for me would be Aaron Rodgers. Like does Aaron, does Aaron Rodgers, can he return to his touchdown form over the course of his career, he has a 6.0 career touchdown percentage. So every 6% of his attempts is a touchdown, which is very high. The last two years though, 4.2, 4.6. They didn't really add weapons for him, I mean besides Devin Funches of course. But those numbers have been down for Aaron Rodgers and you saw the rise for, for Aaron Jones in that area. Does that switch back at all? Where. What is your confidence level in the. Because to me the touchdowns are going to happen. It's just where do they go?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean I think it switches back a little bit because he, he loves to go to Devonte Adams in the red zone and he didn't have that opportunity at times last year. That's one focus. I mean Aaron Rodgers, there's, you know him, Patrick Mahomes, probably the top two quarterbacks that you have complete trust in throwing around the goal line on a regular basis. So yeah, I think that, that I wouldn't be counting on a lot of goal line opportunities for Aaron Jones as being kind of the backbone of his season. And to speak to the consistency, five games with less than seven points last year, that was the most among top 24 running backs.

[Jason Moore]

Top 24, not like the most in the top five. This is like if you're the running back 24, you had fewer bust games than Aaron Jones and they drafted. Yeah, I was going to say A.J.

[Andy Holloway]

Dillon in the second round when you.

[Jason Moore]

Have 11 touchdowns inside the 10, which is what Aaron Jones had. And then you bring in a big bodied, you know, goal line, third and inches. AJ Dillon, which you drafted the second round. I, I mean we all know the touchdowns are coming down, but the opportunity does scare me. The consistency scares me. If the defense was worse, I would be more in on Aaron Jones, ironically, because he is the mold of Alvin Camara. He and, and I don't think that the packers want to win games scoring, you know, and having the same offense that the Saints do. The offense of the Saints is, let's just go for 50 points a game. And LaFleur has, you know, last year he wanted to slow things down and.

[Andy Holloway]

Let me, let me ask Mike a question. Mike has him the highest of the three of us at RB6. He said you're a believer in Aaron Jones. I think we all believe in Aaron Jones. The talent. It's more, you know, what are we going to expect from, from LaFleur on a week to week basis? 16 touchdowns last year. Where do you have him touchdown wise? And I'll give you a second to find that. Where do you have him for this upcoming year? Because like you said, we all agree that it's coming down but what does that actually equate to? Because last year it wasn't just it was 16 on the ground and then it was another what, three receiving touchdowns, correct?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So I have astronomical.

[Mike Wright]

I have him regressing. I have it down to 10 rushing touchdowns, two through the air and a little bit more receiving work of, you know, I'm trying to account for those one score games kind of flipping the other direction. So just give him a few more receptions. And that turned into a very high ranking running back for me.

[Andy Holloway]

By the way, I'm gonna throw this out there because the resident Packer fan of our studio is most certainly Al Borland and he's nodding and I just want to throw the stat out there. Since you became a producer on the show, Al, Aaron Rodgers is. He's ranked 48th in completion percentage.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man, I don't know.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you on the mic today, Al?

[Jason Moore]

I am.

[Andy Holloway]

So how do you feel? Is this a direct correlation? I mean, we do a lot of statistical analysis here. This seems pretty cut and dry. This is on you.

[Jason Moore]

It's on me.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Well, don't worry. You've got a new quarterback in Tower.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, no.

[Jason Moore]

And I'll bet you love him. Boo. Boo.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think that there are a lot of huge question marks on this roster outside of the ones we discuss. I think we can move forward.

[Mike Wright]

Well, do you.

[Andy Holloway]

Jamal Williams will probably still have a role in the offense to occasionally disrupt your Aaron Jones draftable.

[Mike Wright]

Who's the wide receiver to.

[Jason Moore]

It's funches.

[Andy Holloway]

It's lazard.

[Mike Wright]

It's lazard.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. I mean it's irrelevant.

[Andy Holloway]

It almost sounded like you were just, you were like, yeah, I agree now.

[Jason Moore]

No, no, I don't. I think, I think it is funches. I think funches will be better than lazard. But my, my, my answer is truly, I think it's irrelevant. In the past, Aaron Rodgers wide receiver too has been a phenomenal value in fantasy. Even his wide receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

Three years, those days are gone.

[Jason Moore]

It's not that team anymore. It's not that coach. It's not that Aaron Rodgers and so I'm avoiding funches or Lazard. I don't really care.

[Andy Holloway]

13 and 3 becomes what this year, 1010 wins?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think there'll be a 10 win team.

[Andy Holloway]

Speaking of 10 winning 10 win teams, the Minnesota Vikings went 10 and 6 last year. That's what we're talking about now. They were sixth in the NFL and rushing yards per game, rushing touchdowns. It was the Dalvin Cook show. This is not the same Minnesota Vikings defense of years past and it won't be even More so in 2020. More of those mainstays are now gone. Mike Zimmer is getting an extension, multi year extension. Gary Kubiak is now the offensive coordinator replacing Kevin Stefanski who's now the head coach for Cleveland. Got a mind blowing stat on Mike Zimmer that I'm going to throw out there with no fantasy relevance or purpose whatsoever.

[Jason Moore]

Well, let's. It's to blow minds.

[Andy Holloway]

This, this is shocking. Since he's coming to Minnesota. The Vikings are 1:17 and one outdoors against the team with a winning record. They're like a year to year. They're a winning football team.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, they win. That's a hot. The majority of their games that are at home.

[Andy Holloway]

It's 5% of your games.

[Jason Moore]

That's crazy.

[Andy Holloway]

That's just shocking. But all right, let's talk about the fantasy outlook for this for this roster heading into 2020. Kirk Cousins being drafted as the 22nd quarterback off the board. I get it. The kind of knee jerk reaction to Kirk Cousins is already kind of a melancholy feel about Kirk Cousins low passing volume and then you just lose to find Diggs and that's just kind of the quick reaction Right. Is you take somebody that you kind of didn't love, fantasy wise, and you take away their arguably best weapon, certainly best big play weapon, Svon Diggs last year, consistently, you know, those deep touchdowns. So where are we with Kirk Cousins? They add Justin Jefferson, a first round wide receiver, a player that we all really like, or at least I like.

[Jason Moore]

No, we all like.

[Mike Wright]

We like the receiver. Here's. Yes, here's the question is the offense. Last year, how much of that offense was actually Stefanski and how much of that offense is Mike Zimmer? Because that's, that is everything. Jason, you're making a funny face.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean Mike Zimmer's, you know, he's the head coach. He's going to dictate whether he wants to run more, pass more. But he's a defensive coach. The offense was completely, you know, I think that it was Stefanski, however, Kubiak was there and I think it was more Stefanski and Kubiak and now it's Kubiak.

[Mike Wright]

What I mean by that is like you had a couple of years ago, that's when you had a defilippo was.

[Andy Holloway]

The guy Zimmer forced. The issue at the back half of.

[Mike Wright]

The year said, screw this crap, we aren't throwing the ball this much. This isn't how I win a football game. So that's the big question to me is what offense are we going to see? Is it. Will it still be this run heavy when. And then that hurts Kirk Cousins a lot.

[Jason Moore]

Who.

[Mike Wright]

He's a good quarterback. He's very efficient. But he'll have the weeks. But he's more of a streaming option. Meanwhile, you have rookie Justin Jefferson who played 81% of the time in the slot in college and now you're. If that's what I'm saying, if this is Stefanski's offense where they just, they didn't use a slot wide receiver that much. That seems like an interesting fit of. Are you that confident that Justin Jefferson can jump from a full time slot wide receiver to an outside wide receiver in the NFL? Like that's to me is a really big stretch.

[Jason Moore]

That's why of all of the rookies that are coming in with great opportunity ahead of them, Jalen Rager and Jerry Judy and Justin Jefferson, he's the lowest to me because he has an extra transition to make as a player. But I did like him obviously in college he was, he was, you know, dominant for lsu. But that's, you know, I don't want to bank fantasy on all of Those variables, especially in this shortened season. Now, on the other side, outside is going to be Adam Thielen, who I am the highest on of this group.

[Andy Holloway]

I wouldn't. This is not a foregone conclusion in my mind at all that Justin Jefferson won't be utilized the way he's used in college and used in the slot. I mean, the Vikings have come out and talked about using him in that capacity. So I wouldn't, I wouldn't throw that away. I like Justin Jefferson to be a surprise value in fantasy drafts. So we don't, we don't agree there.

[Jason Moore]

The, you know, the 2019 Vikings used three wide receivers only 22% of the snaps, which was by far the lowest in the NFL. And that's usually what you're going to need to get that guy in the slot.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean Thielen can go outside.

[Mike Wright]

A guy into it. Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah, but that's, that's, that's my point. So they're going to need to change their offense completely if they're going to have Justin Jefferson have enough slot, you know, roll to do what he did in college.

[Andy Holloway]

This is a team that went from 606 passing attempts down to 444 last year. The offense goes through Dalvin Cook. What is your temperature? Tech check with Dalvin Cook right now in late July. Are you, you know, Jason, you've somehow drafted him in like every mock.

[Jason Moore]

It is true and I have been able to get Alexander Madison in each one as well. And now those aren't just mocks where it's computer. You know, we, I just did one for an industry mock and with all industry experts and I was able to double up. So I'm actually okay with Dalvin Cook if he falls to the back of the first round. But you have to get Alexander Madison even if it means to me taking him in the seventh.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think I'm, I think I'm still good taking there right now. We're going to know very soon because the, all the, the real worry was the threat from a few weeks ago that David Cook said he will not show up if he does not have a new deal. And we're, you know, what a week away or so from. From finding out if that is actually the truth. And I'll reevaluate after that. But for now I'll still take him to where Jason's talking about taking him right now.

[Andy Holloway]

He's the RB5 off the board. Are you expecting the same from Kirk Cousins in terms of efficiency? Like would you be comfortable with him as your QB2.

[Jason Moore]

Oh yeah, a QB2.

[Andy Holloway]

He's super, super flex league.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And the defense shouldn't be as good. I mean, you know, Zimmer is a defensive minded and a very good defensive minded head coach that gets the most out of the players he has. But you still have to play with the players that you have. He's lost a lot of their mainstays on defense. So, you know, I don't think they're going to have the luxury of as many games where they can throw the ball. I mean, there were some games where you had Kirk Cousins, you know, barely throw the ball in a victory. Remember week one where he threw the.

[Mike Wright]

Ball and week one was.

[Jason Moore]

That was the worst 10 times in a, in a victory. That's absurd. But you had other games. 21 attempts, 27 attempts.

[Mike Wright]

Well, yeah, the, if you remember the secondary, especially with Xavier Rhodes just disintegrating, the secondary last year actually became a target for fantasy wide receivers.

[Andy Holloway]

I think that's the kind of fantasy message for this offense is that, you know, you're always trying to, with your roster, just magnify opportunities for success. And this is an offense where you will have those weeks, but the passing offense probably will not be in the top half of the league in terms of opportunities. So if you're banking on an Adam Thielen or on a Justin Jefferson breakout or even on, you know, Kyle Rudolph for a spot start or an Irv Smith for a spot start, you really have to pick the right week and the right, you know, you get, you have to get the right Kirk Cousins that week or the right game script that week. Unless things fall apart completely for the defense and they have to turn it over to Cousins.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I was going to, I was going to follow up with in Kirk Cousins range of outcomes. It reminds me of like back when I would draft Tony Romo because Romo was always super efficient, usually pretty solid for fantasy football. In the range of outcomes for the Vikings, the defense, the secondary does not work out and they have to turn the ball over to Kirk a little bit more and then he becomes, you know, like a low end, low end, QB1.

[Andy Holloway]

The 606 pass attempts in his first year in Minnesota was a career high for him. That was 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns. So you know, they, they weren't as good and I think Zimmer will be focused on that. You know, they were not as good.

[Mike Wright]

Of a team last year.

[Jason Moore]

He only threw the ball 444 times. But if you do look at the second half of the year when their defense started to erode, and I think it's worse coming into 2020 than it was at the second half of last year. He was on pace for 523 attempts over the second half of the year. So I've actually got him going up from that number in passing attempts. It's part of why I like Adam Thielen. You're saying, I don't know if we could start Kyle Rudolph or Irv Smith or Justin Jefferson, but Adam Thielen is the clear one. Yes, he was a top 10 wide receiver before he got injured last season. He was a top 10 fantasy wide receiver the year before and the year before. I am 100% fine with Adam Thielen where he's going in drafts.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he feels the safest in the passing game by far. Like far and away, the Bears, 8 and 8. Last year they had 12 games of their 16 that were one score games. They went. They didn't go the packer route. They went 506 and 6, which is about how you'd imagine those to end up. This was a bad year on offense. Rushing yards per game, 27th in the league after being 11th in 2018, 28th. And rushing touchdowns, 25th in passing yards per game, 25th in passing touchdowns. If you had your eyes open and you watched a Bears game, you saw them struggle on offense. Matt Nagy's still there. New offensive coordinator Bill Laser replacing the the Hell Frick experience, the hellish experience from last year. And you know, it's hard to blame the offense coordinator with what you saw from Mitch Trubisky. Huge step back in year two. You know, looking at the landscape for the Chicago Bears, you're talking about Mitch Trubisky, you're talking about Nick Foles who ends up in that, you know, starting quarterback position. And then how does it affect fantasy relevant players like David Montgomery, Alan Robinson and a player that I think you know has that breakout potential, Anthony Miller, if he can get consistent quarterback play.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, this is going to be one of the most upsetting things to have no preseason for because the Bears are going to have the luxury if they so choose to not tell anyone who their starter is and for us to not have any.

[Mike Wright]

Matt Nagy is 100% doing that.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. That's what I would expect him to do. And we won't have the luxury store magician. You know, sometimes preseason makes the decisions, even just social. You know, warriors are going to clamor for the one in preseason who is clearly better. And that's not going to be. There's not going to be a public viewing of this competition, so we won't know. I personally right now have them split. I have eight games for Foles and eight games for Trubisky. One of them starts, the other takes over the second half. And when I look at my numbers that I've statted out for each one. While I have talked about, I don't think Foles is a huge upgrade. He is an upgrade for the receiving options. I have him with more yardage, more passing touchdowns, fewer interceptions. So if I'm looking at Alan Robinson or Anthony Miller, I think you want Nick Foles to be the starting quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike, did you want to weigh in on the quarterbacks at all?

[Mike Wright]

Sure. It's funny, I think it doesn't matter because I'll say this. Whatever happens is going to happen in reverse no matter what, in my opinion. Nick Foles starts the season. Mitch Trubisky will be closing the season. If Trubisky opens, Nick Foles will be closing the season for the Bears because neither of them is going to be able to get the job done. And Matt Nagy is going to be playing for his coaching career at that point, so he's going to have to switch no matter what. I guess I would prefer Foles for the receivers, but I mean, Trubisky has shown that he'll. He'll be absolutely target lock onto Allen Robinson. Who deserves those targets? Last year, Ellen Robinson had the third most targets. He is now like fully removed and fully healthy after his ACL tear, which by the way, found out hot, hot fact. Alan Bernard. Allen. Bernard Robinson. So you know that dude is an absolute savage if he's walking around. His name is Alan Bernard the second. There's.

[Jason Moore]

He's the second Bernard Bernard Robinson.

[Andy Holloway]

Are we calling him Bernie? Is that what we're doing?

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no, no.

[Jason Moore]

But.

[Mike Wright]

And as far as like Montgomery, if we're talking about the quarterback, I honestly just. I don't think it matters. I think that they're both equally able to get something done on the offensive side. For Montgomery, it will come down to how well can that offensive line. Actually, I agree with you.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think that I'm making a lot of decisions based on projecting Foles as the starter versus Trubisky is the starter. I already know that Allen Robinson can play with bad quarterbacks and still give you fantasy production. The more interesting thing is if, if Trubisky could turn it around A little bit or if Foles ends up being a much better option, will Anthony Miller be able to provide week to week value flex opportunities? Over the last seven games he had 55 targets. That's 125 target pace. And if you used your eyeball, this is a super talented player who made some big time contested catches, who made some big time plays for this offense. And if he does take a step forward, can either of these quarterbacks support two guys? And because if he takes a step forward, does it come at the expense of Alan Robinson?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean I have Alan Robinson the lowest, right. Mike, you've got him at number nine, Andy at number 11. So you both have him as a wide receiver one I've got him down at 21, which I've gotten a lot of flack for. You know, he's been the target monster in his career. Obviously he was last year, but it was still trubisky throwing him the ball the year prior when he was on pace for 116 targets. I don't think he was, he was.

[Mike Wright]

Coming off an ACL tear.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, he was coming off of it.

[Mike Wright]

But he was on a brand new team.

[Jason Moore]

He was. That's fine. But I'm just saying it's within the range of outcomes for him to not be 140 target player. Especially if Anthony Miller steps up and is healthier.

[Andy Holloway]

Really. I mean, Anthony Miller's had problems with.

[Jason Moore]

Health throughout his career and you know, they obviously signed Jimmy Graham. We don't love him, but you give $9 million to a player to throw the ball his way from time to time when that's the only thing you can do with Jimmy Graham. So, you know, I just don't see Alan Robinson as. He's a great player, but that's a lot of targets.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't see him as a 154 targets last year. If I buy soldiers 140 targets, buy.

[Jason Moore]

Or sell, that's exactly where I have him. I believe. Let me double check. I have him at 140 targets, so I push.

[Andy Holloway]

Still a pretty good chunk.

[Jason Moore]

It is a good chunk, but that's what I, that's what gets him for me to wide receiver 21. I've got him just over 1,000 yards and seven receiving touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike doesn't even need to speak. I can kind of feel his adoration and respect for Alan Robinson through the television screen. And I hear you, Mike, he's very good. I hear you, Mike. He's very good. Last one, David. Opportunity. I still really like him for where he's being drafted. He's the RB24 in basketball. The whole team has a bit of that offensive stink to it. He's going to have every opportunity on this offense. I do think he's talented. He's especially good in the passing game. If he has more opportunities there, which is something Matt Nagy has shown the ability to do historically. You know, he had an okay year. If you look at this offense and say 27th, you know, 25th and passing yards per game, very inefficient. Points per game, 29th, you know, I don't put that on the back of a rookie running back. I put that on the back of Mitch Trubisky. Matt Nagy's decision making, do they finish above 29th this year?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think they do. I think, I think as a whole, the offense takes a step.

[Andy Holloway]

Just that offensive line, they're not necessarily.

[Jason Moore]

A good offense, but they're not going to be as bad they were last year. I think we all project them to take a small step forward. And if a small step forward happens for a back who's pretty much guaranteed 250 rushing attempts, then that's a lot. That's a lot. The touchdowns come. He's going to be good for fantasy and finish above that running back 24 rank. You know, I think he's, he's got that running back 15 look to him.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike, quick prediction. Are we talking about Matt Nagy's offense this time next year?

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Sorry, Matt.

[Andy Holloway]

I wonder if Bears fans are happy you said that or sad.

[Jason Moore]

I bet they're split.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, they start the season against Detroit, the Giants, the Falcons and the Colts. Bears season gets started.

[Jason Moore]

Wow. Those first three weeks are pretty good for whoever gets the start. Yeah, that is nice. Detroit, the Giants, the Falcons. Phenomenal.

[Andy Holloway]

Speaking of Detroit, they didn't have a great year. 312 and one last season. They were. It's funny how this is. You look at the one score games just in this division. I don't think we've broken that metric out in the other divisional breakdowns. And here's the tough luck team you had. The 9 and 1 Packers, the 8 and 8 Bears, and now the 3 and 8 Detroit Lions in one score games. The three 12 and one record. I, you know, it betrays what I saw on the field. Matthew Stafford was very, very good last year. This was not a good. This was not a good defense. Yeah, for a half and then you had to deal with David Blau and you know, hard to have expectations for an offense with the backup quarterback no matter who you are. So passing yards per game, they still finished 10th in the league despite the fact that he went out.

[Mike Wright]

Holy crap. That's insane.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he was having an outstanding year and then went out in week 10 and then it was the David Blaufest. Not a lot has changed on this team. They brought in DeAndre Swift in the second round. My number one rated rookie running back out of Georgia. A player that I think will have an instant impact. But Detroit running back impact has not meant much for fantasy for the past 20 years.

[Jason Moore]

No. I am well documented as a Kerryon Johnson truther extraordinaire. Deeply in love.

[Andy Holloway]

How do you fall out of love? I'm just curious, like if you were to fall out of love, how does that even happen?

[Jason Moore]

It happens.

[Andy Holloway]

Have you ever fallen out of love?

[Mike Wright]

I think it happens swiftly.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, very nice. Very nice, Mike. That is the only way it would happen is swiftly. But the truth is he was too injury prone to take the role of what they needed. They go out, they spend high draft capital on a very talented running back in Swift. But carry on is still there and he will eat into the work that Swift is getting. I don't want either of these guys. I've not had a single mock, a single deep league or any platform that I have chosen to draft either one of the running backs who are splitting the workload.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think I have either.

[Jason Moore]

The Detroit Lions.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm blind to them on in mock drafts.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you can go ahead and cross their names out. I just don't.

[Andy Holloway]

29Th in rushing touchdowns last year, 21st in rushing yards per game. I think they had 14 different running backs at one point in the season.

[Jason Moore]

But what you said was last year and I feel like those stats are true for 14. When, when did Barry Sanders retire? Because since then they have never been able to run the ball.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, nor should they if Matthew Stafford played the way he played last year.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, Matthew Stafford was unbelievable. He was on pace for 4,998 yards, 38 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. I mean outlandish numbers.

[Andy Holloway]

Much more aggressive. In 2019 he had a league leading 19.2% deep attempts, which is one part Matthew Stafford and one part having Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones as a part of your offense. Kenny Golladay, I think we all have a have him ranked very highly. He's the wide receiver, seven off the board. Right now, 32% of his targets are 20 plus yards down the field. So you know, we saw this with David Blau One or two games. It only takes one or two catches, you know, for Kenny Galladay.

[Jason Moore]

Kenny G is so, so smooth. He's going deep. It's a touchdown.

[Andy Holloway]

A little frightening to me. Marvin Jones is still on our kind of value list. It's a permanent selection until he retires because he's Marvin Jones. He's the wide receiver, 37 off the board, but he can still drop a three touchdown week on you at any moment. And having Matthew Stafford back will help.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Marvin Jones is looked to in the red zone. He's tied with Michael Thomas with eight red zone touchdowns despite missing three games. Marvin Jones is our editor in chief. Kyle's pretty much favorite player in all of fantasy football. He never leaves a draft without him.

[Andy Holloway]

And that's because of draft cost.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Because he's cheap.

[Andy Holloway]

He takes him in the first.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. I make sure I never leave without him. He's always available when I pick in the bag of the first. Yeah. It's just, it's a very affordable player late in drafts that will provide depth in a year where I think we're going to need depth more than ever. And he's, he's talented. He's not always going to be the most consistent. But when you're looking at your last flex player, which is where Marvin Jones is basically being, he's being drafted to your bench. So he is a depth piece or a backup player that you throw in the right matchup and he can win you a week. Whereas most of the guys on your bench, most of your depth, most of your last flex, they don't have that ability. So I think that's why we all see Marvin Jones as a value.

[Andy Holloway]

Let me ask you two questions, Mike, about this roster fantasy wise. Number one, if you drafted TJ Hawkinson, let's say you went late round tight end, I think Hawkinson will be drafted in a decent amount of leagues late. What are the odds that he's able to be lined up in your tight end position for the full 16 where he's your guy as opposed to just somebody you're drafting to be a streamer?

[Mike Wright]

I would put it very low, unfortunately. I don't, I didn't see enough out of Hawkinson. I know he had, he had week one against Arizona.

[Andy Holloway]

He was one of the major free agent pickups after that week.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

How many, how many fab dollars were wasted thrown into an engine like it? I don't see it happening for TJ Hawkinson this year. I mean you had multiple injuries, didn't really get enough time on the field. So maybe later I think that he can become the player that they drafted. But I'm not taking the chance on him as a, as a late round flyer.

[Andy Holloway]

54% catch rate for TJ Hawkinson last year. That's 32 for 367 and 2.

[Jason Moore]

That's not great.

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Jason Moore]

And you might say, well, he spent half the year obviously without Stafford, but in the games with Stafford he was a 57.9% catch rate. Also not great, especially for a tight end. Their catch rates are usually much higher, easier, open targets. I do believe in the talent. He was the guy that, you know, I loved the most of that draft class in the tight ends. And we do need to remember he was a rookie tight end. So you can't get mad at him for not performing. It was almost like that week one performance.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that ruined the 15 weeks afterwards.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. It ruined the 15 weeks afterwards. And it's a shame because if he came out and put up, you know, 60 yards and a touchdown, had a decent game, but wasn't the 131 yards, I think we would actually have him higher valued this year in drafts than him having a great game, which is, you know, a little bit, a little bit wacky.

[Mike Wright]

I will say that 60 yard mark he never surpassed again after week one.

[Jason Moore]

That's true. 56 yards was his next highest and that was really his next highest at all. Never above 50 outside of that.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean if you take Matthew Stafford's pace and you were to be so kind to give it to him for this upcoming year and you're distributing 38 passing touchdowns, Hawkinson's having a far better year than where we have him.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's possible. And I want to bounce back to DeAndre Swift real quick. What, like in the range of outcomes, just percentage chance. What, what would you put it at? I'll get Andy, I'll throw it to you. The percentage chance that, that Patricia says, okay. He is, in fact DeAndre Swift is the best running back on this team. I'm going to give it to him. We, I mean we had. Yeah, I think it's Johnson's. An injury risk you had. We did have a four game stretch with Bo Scarborough. Now they were up against it, but Bo Scarborough was averaging 18 attempts a game for four straight weeks before carry on Johnson came back from the ir.

[Andy Holloway]

What I liked about Swift and why I had him graded the way I did coming into this year was the pass catching ability. So if he's on the field, you know, that's what that equates to, to me is you're saying, are you. Is he going to give him the opportunity to be the guy by being on the field more often?

[Mike Wright]

And we know Stafford will throw to the running back.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, we've had many theoretic years where that's the only value theoretic had was catching the ball to the backfield. There's a world where that happens. Yeah. Where DeAndre Swift hits the point where he's worth that shot. The same way that we've talked about some of these other rookie running backs carry on gets hurt once a year. What do they still believe in him? I mean, obviously they spent a high draft capital pick on DeAndre Swift and we haven't ignored the running back position in Detroit entirely. Bringing up Theo Riddick, who's been a flex worthy player in years past. He's the RB27 off the board right now. He's being drafted ahead of Kerryon Johnson. So the fantasy community is looking at him as a upside carry what, Kareem Hunt range type of player right now.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And as the carry on Johnson. Truth or I would draft neither. But if I had to draft one, it would be swift ahead of carry on Johnson. The draft capital they put in, the fact that Kerryon has had two years to get the job done and hasn't. I think the transition is made to where it's a one two punch with Swift being the one.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Anything else you guys want to talk about with the Detroit Lions?

[Jason Moore]

No, just worthy mentioning that Stafford is a great late round. You know, when you think you missed out on almost everybody. Stafford is still usually there now.

[Mike Wright]

He opens against Chicago.

[Jason Moore]

I'm fine with that.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Would you rather be sitting Stafford the whole year or Big Ben on the return?

[Mike Wright]

That's a great question.

[Jason Moore]

Both coming off of injuries, so you can't use the excuse for either.

[Andy Holloway]

I would go Stafford, I think Eileen Stafford.

[Mike Wright]

I think I do as well. That's. That's a really tough one of you could look back in 12 months and go that was idiotic.

[Andy Holloway]

And yet at the same time you could look back with either of those picks and be like, I am so glad I didn't invest in early draft pick on a quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

On a quarterback. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. All right, that is it for today's episode of the show. Appreciate you subscribing to the podcast, reviewing the podcast. It means a lot to this podcast.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FF Ballers.

[Andy Holloway]

And we also want to thank Omaha Steaks. Their grand Summer Grill out package lets you stay at home and eat like you're at the best steakhouse in town. We're talking Omaha Steaks, bacon wrapped filet mignon mmm, plus pork chops, chicken, kielbasa and more delivered to your door. Visit Omaha steaks.com and type footballers in the search bar to shop Summer Grill Packs Today and this week only, Omaha Steaks will add four burgers and four gourmet jumbo franks for free to your order.