NFC North Breakdown + Poking the Bears - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/17

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - NFC North Breakdown + Poking the Bears
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
Episode Release Date: July 17, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of The Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright delve deep into the intricacies of the NFC North division. Alongside their usual fantasy football analysis, they tackle recent legal developments affecting key players within the division. Skipping the usual advertisements and intros, the trio focuses on delivering actionable insights for fantasy managers and passionate NFL fans alike.

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Legal Issues Affecting NFC North Teams

Quinshon Judkins and the Cleveland Browns

At [02:48], Jason Moore introduces concerns regarding Quinshon Judkins’ legal situation. According to reports, Judkins, who hasn't yet signed his rookie contract, faces potential placement on the commissioner's exempt list due to legal troubles. Mike Florio highlights the possibility of Judkins being placed on paid leave after signing his contract ([02:52]).

Andy Holloway speculates, “[04:27]... Judkins is not an NFL employee right now, which means he can't be put on the commissioner's exempt list. But he also can't practice and participate...” This situation likely delays Judkins’ participation in training camp until week six or seven, impacting the Browns' depth at running back.

Jordan Addison and the Chicago Bears

The discussion shifts to Chicago Bears wide receiver Jordan Addison, who is due for a pretrial hearing concerning a DUI charge. Andy Holloway mentions, “[07:30]... [[...] Jordan Addison is due in court for a pretrial hearing before a jury trial on his DUI.” If convicted, Addison would face a minimum three-game suspension per the NFL’s policy, as noted by Jason Moore ([08:18]).

Terry McLaurin, another Bears wide receiver, is also facing contract frustrations. McLaurin has expressed dissatisfaction with the team's contract negotiations, indicating potential uncertainty about his participation in the upcoming season.

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NFC North Team Breakdowns

Detroit Lions

Starting at [14:29], the hosts analyze the Detroit Lions, who had an outstanding record of 15-2 last season. Jason Moore notes, “[17:12]... this year is projected at ten and a half wins,” highlighting a significant drop from the previous season’s performance.

Andy Holloway expresses concern over the Lions' offensive line changes and the departure of key coordinator Ben Johnson, stating, “[20:22]... What Ben Johnson did was like sprinkles on top...” Despite these changes, Jared Goff remains a consistent quarterback performance, with Moore highlighting Goff’s historical achievements and potential MVP candidacy ([22:26]).

Fantasy Football Insights:

• Jameer Gibbs is projected as a top-tier running back with high draft value.
• David Montgomery remains a solid but potentially riskier pick in later rounds due to offensive line uncertainties.
• T.J. Hawkinson is discussed as a potential fifth-round tight end, though Andy expresses reservations about his difference-making ability at the position ([39:38]).

Minnesota Vikings

At [29:18], the conversation shifts to the Minnesota Vikings, who finished last season at 14-3. The team is expected to perform at 8.5-9 wins this year, facing a tough schedule. The hosts discuss the rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s potential, comparing him favorably to Sam Darnold’s previous performance ([31:35]).

Andy Holloway raises concerns about Caleb Williams, the Vikings' new quarterback, emphasizing his lack of mobility and reliance on a strong offensive line to succeed ([31:54]).

Fantasy Football Insights:

• Aaron Jones remains a valuable asset despite age concerns, projected as a late 6th-round pick.
• Jordan Mason shows potential as a strong backup, especially if injuries occur, making him a sleeper pick around the 13th round ([37:22]).
• Matthew Golden is highlighted as a reliable receiver to support the quarterback.

Green Bay Packers

At [42:16], the Packers are discussed as a team with strong on-field performance but inconsistent fantasy outcomes. With Josh Jacobs leading the backfield, the Packers boast a high-scoring offense but face challenges in maintaining predictability for fantasy managers ([43:40]).

Andy Holloway emphasizes the importance of team health and the spread of targets among receivers like Matthew Golden and Jaden Reed ([43:47]).

Fantasy Football Insights:

• Josh Jacobs is a top pick, projected as RB9 with consistent touchdown potential.
• Jaden Reed and Colson Loveland present solid options for middle-round investments.
• Caleb Williams, the Packers' rookie QB, is discussed with mixed expectations due to past inaccuracies and dependence on a robust offensive line ([50:45]).

Chicago Bears

The Bears, under new head coach Ben Johnson, are the final focus. With a projected 8.5-9 win season, the team is rebuilding around Caleb Williams and integrating new players like DeAndre Swift and Roma Dunes ([54:22]).

Andy Holloway is skeptical about Caleb Williams reaching his potential, likening his development to that of Trevor Lawrence, who did not meet early expectations ([58:27]).

Fantasy Football Insights:

• DeAndre Swift is considered a potential late-round value, though concerns about his efficiency persist.
• Roma Dunes is viewed as a promising sleeper with significant upside in the Bears' revamped offense ([59:28]).

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Fantasy Football Implications

Throughout the episode, the hosts provide detailed analysis on how the NFC North’s dynamics influence fantasy football strategies:

• Running Backs: Josh Jacobs remains a cornerstone for Green Bay, while Detroit’s Jameer Gibbs and Minnesota’s Aaron Jones are essential picks. Jordan Mason and Roshan Johnson emerge as valuable backups with high upside.

• Quarterbacks: Jared Goff preserves his reputation as a reliable QB1, whereas J.J. McCarthy and Caleb Williams present intriguing but uncertain options for fantasy managers.

• Wide Receivers and Tight Ends: Players like Jaden Reed, Matthew Golden, and T.J. Hawkinson are discussed for their roles within their respective offenses, with considerations on their target volumes and team health.

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Division Predictions

As the discussion wraps up, the hosts share their predictions for the NFC North:

• Andy Holloway: Vikings to win the division, followed by Lions, Packers, and Bears ([63:15]).

• Jason Moore: Packers as division winners, Lions in second, Vikings third, and Bears fourth, expressing hope for Chicago’s improvement ([63:25]).

• Mike Wright: Aligns with Packers winning the division and supporting the Lions' playoff chances ([63:32]).

The divergence in predictions highlights the uncertainty and competitive nature of the division, influenced by ongoing team developments and player performances.

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Conclusion

The episode concludes with the hosts acknowledging the complexities and unpredictabilities of the NFC North. They emphasize the importance of staying updated with team developments and player performances to optimize fantasy football strategies. The hosts also tease future discussions, maintaining their commitment to providing high-quality and actionable fantasy football insights.

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Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway at [04:27]: "Judkins is not an NFL employee right now, which means he can't be put on the commissioner's exempt list. But he also can't practice and participate..."

• Jason Moore at [08:18]: "Jordan Addison would miss at least three games per the NFL's policy, according to Adam Schefter."

• Andy Holloway at [39:38]: "If you're in a league I don't care that much about and I don't want to scour the waivers and I just want to lock in a tight end, I'll probably take Hawkinson because I'll be like that's easy."

• Jason Moore at [22:26]: "Jared Goff stands as one of the handful of potential MVPs."

• Mike Wright at [44:30]: "I think the dude's going to get into the end zone. I think you can have more balance."

• Andy Holloway at [31:35]: "J.J. McCarthy, I think he is really, really good. I think he's better than Sam Darnold."

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This comprehensive breakdown provides listeners and readers with a clear understanding of the current state and future projections of the NFC North teams, alongside valuable fantasy football strategies tailored to the latest developments.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Foreignasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome in Thursday, July 17, Jason Moore, Mike Wright, Andy Holloway, the Fantasy Footballers Podcast back with you, Excited to be here, diving back into divisional breakdown episodes and some news to talk about. Discuss with you fine gentlemen.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm glad we talk fantasy football.

[Jason Moore]

I really am for a living.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, sure, yeah. But I guess I just feel like, like prior to hitting the record button, it was like we were the fantasy lawyers. Trying to figure, you know, there's so many things going on unfortunately every year.

[Jason Moore]

We certainly aren't Addison. Lawyer lawyers.

[Andy Holloway]

Judkins and yeah, we're the fantasy lawyers.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Not legal advice, but every once in.

[Jason Moore]

A while we have to put on the amateur lean on all my years of watching, you know, television.

[Mike Wright]

Lawyer tv, Perry Mason.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And wow.

[Mike Wright]

Come on.

[Jason Moore]

Come on. All right.

[Andy Holloway]

Come on.

[Mike Wright]

Andy wasn't watching Perry Mason.

[Jason Moore]

I certainly was not every incarnation. But I like the ancient reference. So yeah, we were, we were discussing the Quinshon Judkin situation again, which we'll get into briefly in the news and figure out where we're at with that information. But today is mostly about the NFC north, which is a really exciting division to talk about.

[Andy Holloway]

Also has legal troubles of its own.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you are right.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we'll get there. We'll get there.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Yeah, it took me a second, but you're right. Yeah. Welcome to.

[Mike Wright]

What an incredible. This is an uplifting show, guys. I'm so excited. Let's just talk about legal problems.

[Jason Moore]

We are forced to. It's not what I want to talk about but we have NFC north breakdown NFL News to talk about. The Ultimate Draft Kit is available right now@ultimate draftkit.com you can go check that out. Dominate your draft this upcoming August, wherever you're, whenever you're drafting, some of you doing, if you're doing Dynasty drafts and that sort of thing. We've got Dynasty information in there as well. Everything there at ultimate draft kit.com we'll jump right in because I want to talk laws.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Jason Moore]

So there have been a couple of reports around Quinshon Judkins situation. One of them from Mike Florio talking about the fact he could be placed on paid leave after he signs his rookie contract.

[Mike Wright]

Which that, that, that's what I would expect to happen of a. The commissioner's exempt list would be the first step which. But he's not signed.

[Jason Moore]

He's not signed. Which most of the second round picks are not. That was kind of the story we Talked about on the last episode, like Jaden Higgins got signed. Fully guaranteed. Most of them are not signed. I think at that point, two of them had been signed.

[Andy Holloway]

Two total. Two total. Do you know who the second one that got signed is? The Cleveland Browns.

[Mike Wright]

First.

[Andy Holloway]

Second round pick.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, really?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Well, so the one thing that I think is worth bringing up is that we were literally here last year with the Browns. Mike Hall Jr. Was suspended five games. He was their second round pick. He went to Ohio State for domestic violence. He didn't go to Ohio State for domestic violence.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm majoring in.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, my gosh, Jason dv.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, that wasn't. I would say, Jason, you were the.

[Mike Wright]

One that made it sound awful.

[Jason Moore]

No, he was. He pled no contest to a reduced charge. He ended up pleading down to disorderly conduct from a domestic violence altercation last summer. So the Browns literally went through this. He ended up on their commissioner's exempt list. He ended up missing five games unpaid and then came back in week six. So.

[Mike Wright]

But the difference is Judkins is not signed. Judkins is not an NFL employee right.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, which means he can't be put on the commission exempt list. But he also can't practice and participate. I think regardless, either. Either he doesn't sign because there's all sorts of contractual issues now that the Browns are going to have to figure out. Like, okay, we've got problems with this player.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So then he misses camp because he's not signed, doesn't have a contract, or they sign him, figure it out and then he misses camp because he's put on the exempt list.

[Jason Moore]

Correct.

[Andy Holloway]

At this point, it seems, and this is speculative, you know, but it's. It's an educated guess that you're going to have Quinn, Sean, Judkins missing training camp all of. All of the lead up to probably about week six or seven.

[Jason Moore]

And the other report was from Mary Kay Cabot out of Cleveland saying the Browns are in no rush to sign him or get him into camp on time. Because of what you said, the inevitability of him getting him into camp on time. They don't control that and they control the contract.

[Mike Wright]

And you're the player coming in probably facing a six game suspension right away. Like I am protecting the team.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you want.

[Mike Wright]

Everyone's not signing right now because they want a fully guaranteed contract for the second round picks. That's what they're trying to do. I'm not giving Judkins a contract.

[Jason Moore]

You also don't know how everything's going to Play out. So why not wait? I mean the team. Yeah, the team has quote stressed to Judkins and his agent that Judkins must make his domestic incident the high priority over football. So they're going to let it play out. It's in their. It's not like they can get him into camp quicker because the legal have to act. And so Judkins, I mean if this is, if this is not played down or more information comes out, this is not just going to be a suspension. This is going to be a catastrophic impact to his first contract.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

And potential to play for sure.

[Andy Holloway]

And I think when we talked about the fantasy implications, how many games you miss, we really talked about Jerome Ford and his ability to come forward. We didn't bring up enough about Dylan Sampson. Yes, they spent was a fourth runner on another running back, another rookie. You know, he's not, he's not as productive, he's not as big as Judkins. That's why, you know, the excitement was there for Quinch on Judkins. But given the situation where it's pure strong Jerome Ford and now Dylan Sampson to start the year, to start training camp and all of that, Dylan Sampson becomes far more interesting.

[Mike Wright]

I would, I mean, is there a.

[Jason Moore]

Chance the Browns just skipped a year?

[Andy Holloway]

It seems like they're trying.

[Jason Moore]

Can they opt out?

[Mike Wright]

And we, you know, we've, we've updated our stats for the ultimate draft kit. I feel like Dylan Sampson, he would be more of a takeaway pure strongs role if like they, I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

You can catch the football. I mean, Jerome Ford. If we're projecting Jerome Ford receptions and it's Sampson instead of Ford.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Ford being a two down back on one of the worst teams in football does not excite me.

[Mike Wright]

Well, no, Ford catches passes.

[Jason Moore]

No, I'm saying he can, but Sampson's can do that.

[Mike Wright]

Oh sure.

[Jason Moore]

If that's how the roles break out where all of a sudden Ford is the first and second down back on a team that scores four touchdown this year. I mean, Browns fans hate me right now because we talked about how bad that opening schedule was and all that stuff. And look, I feel for you Browns fans.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, this stinks.

[Jason Moore]

I mean this is like you've already been the cloud of Voldemort has been upon your franchise for so long.

[Mike Wright]

And it was like, hey, we're, we're getting out of it. Like the Voldemort cloud is clearing up.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

But it doesn't feel.

[Jason Moore]

But. No, but another. Yeah, another storm is coming through. So that's the update there. And then the NFC north legal situation is just the update that Jordan Addison is due in court pretrial hearing before a jury trial on his dui. And some people think that there'll be a plea deal formalized at the hearing. It does make sense. If he was convicted, he would face a baseline three game suspension. So Jordan Addison would miss at least three games per the NFL's policy, according to Adam Schefter.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, obviously you're not going to move Justin Jefferson up any higher based on that. But if you're looking at a strong start to the season for a T.J. hawkinson, you know that that's where the.

[Jason Moore]

Bump goes and we're talking about that team today. So we'll go through and we'll evaluate, you know, what that means to J.J. mcCarthy to start the season. Couple other pieces of news this one, look, if the lawyers, they handle the contracts too. So let's just include that in our new legal segment. But Terry McLaurin still disappointed with contract talks. His most recent quote is, oh, he said without any progressive discussions, it's hard to see me stepping on the field. Camp is supposed to open next Tuesday and he says he's pretty frustrated. Not going to lie. What has transpired has been pretty disappointing.

[Mike Wright]

I am fully on Terry McLaurin's side of this one. This guy has been, he's paid his dues. Yes. He has been the face of your team through many years of grade A baloney. So. And he deserves to. He's underpaid right now. Jason, you're making a win.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not completely on his side. Depending on what they're squabbling about, if it's years of guaranteed money, then I'm on the team side. I'm not giving Terry McLaurin three guaranteed years of extension. Pay him a lot right now. He deserves to make money. You've got a rookie quarterback under contract. Give him a monster 2 year deal.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, guaranteed money, guaranteed money is everything. But like Terry McLaurin in the Wide receiver department position for what he puts on the field, he is severely underpaid.

[Jason Moore]

Think about this. If you want to know his value to the team. If you take Terry McClaurin off that roster, what do you think about, what do you think about that quarterback now? What do you think about the team's chances?

[Mike Wright]

I think they're, I think we would change their playoff chances go down.

[Jason Moore]

We would change Jaden Daniels in the UDK immediately if he didn't have, if we were like oh, he's reliant on a Debo Samuel resurgence season. I mean, that's not where you want to be.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean that it's a fun exercise where you go, okay, what would the, you know, the Vegas line for wins. Would it change?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

If Terry McLaurin, you know, towards ACL today? It might. Whereas, yeah. You know, someone like Judkins going down at running backs, like whatever.

[Mike Wright]

But, but anyways, the, the. It's hard to see me stepping on the field. It. I do I. Players missing a good amount of training camp freaks me out, man.

[Andy Holloway]

You know who is going to step on the field though? Garrett Wilson.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Yeah, that one kind of came through late of last show. Kind of live reacted. But Garrett Wilson, yeah, he got a four year extension. He is absolutely paid by the Jets. We didn't really react.

[Jason Moore]

Sauce Gardner as well.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, Sauce Gardner. We didn't do a ton of reaction. I tweeted out like my Dynasty team. I'm pumped about this. I like my player having an extension like this. The amount of money and of course people are responding with, well, now he's on the jets forever. And you're like, I totally get that. But like the way I'm looking at the jets situation this year is either it works with Justin Fields and you have you get like a. Maybe a DJ Moore or a DJ More light year and then we're all happy. Or he's terrible and now next year the jets are taking a really high profile quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but that, that's also. That might be one of the reasons our people are uncomfortable. Because we all see that playing out. The odds are devil you know, the.

[Mike Wright]

Devil you don't know.

[Jason Moore]

No, it's fine. I mean it's good that he got paid. He's there alpha for the, for the foreseeable future. It's just that we can see, you know, Fields probably doesn't work as a playoff contending jets quarterback and that's what it would take. And then you're on to rookie town and rookie town is. It's a scary place to be sometimes. So like if I told you, you get one year of Justin Fields and you get one year of Caleb Real Caleb Williams rookie season. You're kind of like crap. You know you'd love to have Garrett Wilson have more. But I look, I'm with you in concept here. Very productive last year with Aaron Rodgers. Things change when Adams got there. Always been a target monster. It's just I do not believe that Garrett Wilson. It's going to be very easy for him without a prolific passer to enter Jefferson Range or Chase.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I don't.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think. I don't think he can do that. Which. That part of. It's a bummer because I think maybe from a skill standpoint, he's close.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I can agree with that. I don't. I don't think we're going to ever get there.

[Andy Holloway]

That would be.

[Mike Wright]

That would take a quite a shifting of quarterbacks, which. That. That stuff does happen every once in a while as well.

[Jason Moore]

Colson Loveland said he is 100% entering training camp.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, man.

[Jason Moore]

But the club declined to say whether or not he'd be on the field when camp began.

[Mike Wright]

I do not love the teammate.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't play unless I'm 110%. You know what I mean? Like 100%. You want me to. You want to play football?

[Mike Wright]

Have you ever tried to go from 100 to 110%? It's very difficult.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, we'll see when training camp starts.

[Jason Moore]

I wonder if that's a deference to more. The team making a decision on his pace of returning. That's how it feels to me. But I. Look, Colson Loveland hasn't gotten a lot of discussion this offseason because he's been hurt. Exactly. Like. But it's. It's one of those things that maybe, you know, that could prove a mistake to not really bring him up enough with the draft capital and the quarterback going into year two and an offensive coordinator we like. I mean, Colson Lovin was drafted with a purpose. You don't take a guy in the top 12 picks.

[Mike Wright]

Correct.

[Jason Moore]

Where was he? Was he 11?

[Mike Wright]

He was number 10.

[Jason Moore]

10. So, I mean, you know, it would be a foolish thing to ignore that draft capital. And just because we don't get to see him out there right now, he could prove extremely important to this offense and was drafted to be, you know, their laporta of sorts. So. I think that's all the news. Any more legal information coming in? Al, I don't know if you are. Are you on the fax machine getting anything through from the clerk or the. Nothing's come through yet, but I'll keep you posted. Goodness, if we never have to talk about legal stuff again, it'll be too soon. Let's jump right in. It's the NFC North.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's get divisional.

[Jason Moore]

Well, this is a very fun one. The NFC north was outrageous last year. A reminder for those that have, you know, just tune into the show again this year. We're in the middle of the divisional breakdowns. We just did the entire AFC four episodes, or I guess we had the mock draft episode and the previous four was the AFC breakdowns. But we're kind of looking at all the off season changes, head coaches, players, rookies coming in, an overview of the team, how we think they can function. We'll end up making a prediction on how we think this division will go, which I'm looking forward to that because.

[Andy Holloway]

I think, yeah, there's a number of ways it could go.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, there are a number of different options. This was a division where last year, Detroit 15 and 2, Minnesota 14 and 3, Green Bay 11 and 6. You know, this was the highest. And me.

[Mike Wright]

The Bears.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, this was the highest.

[Mike Wright]

5 and 12.

[Andy Holloway]

4 and. Oh, right.

[Mike Wright]

Did they.

[Andy Holloway]

I think they started 4 and.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, was that what happened? I don't know about it.

[Andy Holloway]

Sounds impossible. Like you're saying crazy.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think that's a reality. I live.

[Andy Holloway]

They won four in the first two and two. They were. They were four and two.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Right.

[Mike Wright]

One, two, three, four and two.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Going into the bye week. That was what, that was what.

[Mike Wright]

I did it.

[Jason Moore]

They had a.662 winning percentage as the division. That's the highest in the history of the league. They also had the highest scoring differential as a division in league history. They were that good.

[Mike Wright]

The point differentials are wild.

[Jason Moore]

So, I mean, yeah, the lines, everyone's over 100 points plus 222. Minnesota plus 100. Green Bay plus 122. They, they were great. And you'll notice, like, I'll give you a spoiler. Okay. We talk about four teams today. All four teams have a, an extremely hard schedule because they play each other. That's what I mean. That's part of the factor. Right? I cracked the code. Right. They're all like a top 10 hardest.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Hardest schedule because they got to play like the Lions got to play Green Bay and Minnesota in Chicago. So that's a, that's a really big part of it. And I'm really curious your guys thoughts as we go through these teams because they're, they're very exciting when you watch them. They're very exciting for fantasy in terms of fantasy football options. High wind total projections. It's, it's, it's awesome. So we'll start with the Lions. I mean, What a year. 15 and 2. They have beat their Vegas total in wins three straight years and it was just a magical season for them. Their projected Win total last year was ten and a half. You know what it is? This year is ten and a half.

[Andy Holloway]

Wow. So, I mean, after winning 15, you would expect it to be. Obviously.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know if you heard about their schedule.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, difficult schedule, but 10 and a half feels almost insulting after a 15 win.

[Jason Moore]

I would have expected, like, if this situation happened with the Chiefs, it would be 11 and a half. So I would have expected it to.

[Mike Wright]

Be a game you don't have. There's big questions about Ben Johnson.

[Jason Moore]

There are changes and obviously it was a special year. Number one in points per game, number two in yards per game. They were seven and two and one score games. Right. So if that evens up a little bit. But, you know, it's a tougher schedule. Third hardest in the league. They have to go play in Philadelphia this year, play in Washington, play in Baltimore, play in Cincinnati, play in Los Angeles against the Rams and play in Kansas City. So when you talk about a team that went 15 and two all of those games I just read, which was what, seven of them, all those seem like they'll be really challenging games on the road. So their schedule's tough.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. In the first three weeks on the road in Green Bay, then two weeks later on the road in Baltimore. It's, it's, it's going to be tough sledding, but that's how Guns Mahoney wants it.

[Jason Moore]

Well, wasn't it last year that they started against Kansas City and got the win? Wasn't that the debut game last year? So it's a question for fantasy managers now of Ben Johnson's departure, the very, very high expectations for this team and what the production is going to look like for Jared Goff and the offense.

[Andy Holloway]

That was two years ago.

[Jason Moore]

Two years ago.

[Andy Holloway]

I remember that game. But yes, last year was not the Kansas City.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, we.

[Andy Holloway]

What game was it last year they started? I think the Rams. Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you. So what are our expectations for the offense in light of the transition of offensive coordinator? For me, I don't. I think they have so much established structure. Right. So much trellis for the vine, so much consistency in personnel that I don't, I don't personally overemphasize the departure of. If this was a one year wonder team, if this was a change in the. A lot of. A lot of the players.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's what I meant.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Yeah, Yeah. I didn't know if you're mocking.

[Andy Holloway]

No, no, no.

[Jason Moore]

I was going to repeat myself or not.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm completely agreeing with you that most of the players are the same.

[Jason Moore]

And so, and we've seen this. Dave Canales was the number one, you know, higher in the off season two years ago, leaves Tampa Bay, goes to Carolina. Everybody has this discussion about the Tampa Bay offense and Baker Mayfield and it was better than it was the year before. So I don't want to just, I don't just want to concede that this team is going to be much worse on offense. I think they will be very close. Whether that ends up number one or number three or number five. That's going to be very.

[Andy Holloway]

So I do think that they're going to move down to be like 10, which is not a bad offense. They're going to be a good offense.

[Mike Wright]

But there are very large fantasy implications though of if the Detroit lions are the 10th ranked offense. For sure the ADP of these guys are going.

[Andy Holloway]

When you think of their offensive line, it's not just the Ben Johnson situation that that does exist.

[Mike Wright]

He doesn't play OC what he did.

[Andy Holloway]

What he did is he, he was like sprinkles on top because you remember like the play that Ben Johnson came up with where it's like they've, you know, he was watching film of the player that stumbled and so they actually came up with the touchdown pass where they fell to the ground. I mean that kind of stuff is gone because that was truly Ben Johnson. But it's the offensive line that scares me a little bit more. So you combine both of those things together with how prolific they've been, I think they'll be a good offense. But I expect them to take a step back in total touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

So just to give you perspective because I didn't know the answer to this, I was just looking it up. There were 30. They scored 33.2 points per game last year. That was number one. In 2023 they were at 27.1, 27.1 points per game, which was number five.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So they do have multi year consistency. That's a six point per game difference. I mean it's, it's going to move around but I would expect them to be in that range.

[Mike Wright]

Well, they and they. With how hot they ran last year like over the last decade, what they put up of three point averaging 3.8 or more total touchdowns per game. They were one of seven teams to do that. The some of the teams that we have actual next year data on, those teams regressed by at least 10 total touchdowns in that time period.

[Jason Moore]

I think you can even make the argument that it happens because their Defense is better than it was as well because they suffered tremendous injuries. Defensively, they're 20th in yards allowed, 30th in passing yards allowed. It put their offense in a position where they needed 33 points a game to win a lot of ball games.

[Andy Holloway]

So the second half of the year, I remember the beginning of the year, it was like, don't play guys against the Lions. And then when they lost their entire defense.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And I mean especially it was great. Losing Hutchinson is.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, that's massive.

[Mike Wright]

Incalculable.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So you can't even calculate it. No. So they that that's the lay of the land. I mean there aren't major personnel changes or you know, overhaul on offense. Jason mentioned their offensive line situation to.

[Andy Holloway]

Give you an example. We always think of them as like one of if not the best, like the Eagles are the best offensive line, then it's the Lions. They were ranked fourth last year. They their start of 2025 ranking within PFF is 13th. So like that that has been the strength of that team, has been their offensive line. And we know Jared Goff, when pressure gets to him, has not always been as good. So that is the personnel change I'm worried about.

[Jason Moore]

Goff has been one of three quarterbacks to finish inside the top 10 each of the last three years. He is the only player in NFL history with a 72% completion percentage and 4,500 passing yards in one season. And I do think that Jared Goff stands as one of the handful of potential MVPs. Anytime you're a heavy favorite, you're still in that category. But the discussion around fantasy revolves more around your first round pick, Jameer Gibbs, who's going to go in the top five in most drafts. His running mate David Montgomery in the backfield who, you know, does he maintain his role and more so, does he maintain success in that role?

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think so. I don't think either of those is going to prove true. I don't think he's going to be the exact same breakdown because you're entering the real peak of Jameer Gibbs career and Montgomery is. I just don't think it's going to be a smooth sailing on the offensive line. So I think you will see a slightly bigger lean towards Gibbs, but that's not a certainty.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, you're going to Montgomery that you're going to. Absolutely. I believe if you're taking Gibbs as like the number three running back off the board, the first like you're going to need him to get more of the lion's share. Work over David Montgomery.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Double.

[Mike Wright]

Double meaning he's a. He's a strange player because he feels fragile and risky, but he also then has the.

[Jason Moore]

Like, you're talking about Gibbs.

[Mike Wright]

I'm talking about David Montgomery.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

And then. But he has the. If Gibbs misses time. David Montgomery is incredible. And which you can't. You cannot. You cannot say that for every single backup in football that if they get the lead spot, that it's going to be awesome. Yeah, they'll be improved. But Dave Montgomery would be awesome if everything belonged to him. And yet he still feels like. Not a pick I want to make in the fifth round.

[Andy Holloway]

When Montgomery went down. To illustrate it in the reverse. When Montgomery went down. The last four weeks of the season, Gibbs averaged 29.3 fantasy points per game. That. That was. I mean, that's outrageously high. It is half ppr.

[Jason Moore]

It was kind of a. It was a perfect scenario because you had limited season left, so you could just give Gibbs a ton of work. The. The problem that I have with Montgomery and looking at him like we can't have all these discussions about the offensive line changing and him getting a year older and not acknowledge the fact that this is a 15. 2 team. And 70% of his carries came when Detroit was leading or tied, which that number came up when we talked about Derek Henry, like 80% or something of Derek Henry's carries came when they were leading or tied. You saw that schedule. When push comes to shove, if these games are close, it's tough to have Montgomery on the field in a comeback. It's just. It's difficult.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

The versatility that Gibbs. I mean, one of the. We didn't mention it in the news, but one of the recent stories is Gibbs is lining up on the outside more.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Than he ever has. And those are fun. And so it is Gibbs time in this offense. But Montgomery, when you draft him in the fifth round, you're going to make the decision to take Montgomery, who is technically a 2 on this offense, over other potential starters. Right. Where does DeAndre Swift go right now? Is that fourth round?

[Mike Wright]

I think. No. I think ways later than Montgomery.

[Jason Moore]

So that's what I'm saying is you're going to have to. Yeah. Okay. He's eight running backs later. So who's going next to Montgomery and how would you make those decisions? Because I will tell you, there's got to be starters in that vicinity and Montgomery is not.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you are correct. So there's Isaiah Pacheco, Aaron Jones, RJ Harvey are the three running backs. James Conner is one spot ahead of him. But yeah, I mean, but that's how I feel about Gibbs too. And I realize Gibbs is so electric that, you know, he's a league winning type of. But like you're taking Gibbs over Derek Henry, you know, in a lot of situations you're taking him over Christian McCaffrey over Ashton Genty.

[Jason Moore]

And it's easy for people to think that like, I want to like go, hey, come on. Obviously. But when you really think about what it looked like last year, this was a 15 and 2 team that scored 33.7 points per game. Gibbs didn't finish inside the top 10 at the position on any week until week seven. He only did it four times when Montgomery was healthy.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I was going to bring that up. So he was 29.3 fantasy points per game when Montgomery went down. But when Montgomery was there, it was 16.9 fantasy points per game to Montgomery's 15.2 fantasy points per game. So it was like they weren't that different when Monty was healthy.

[Jason Moore]

It's just managing the reality in Detroit now. Gibbs. Could Gibbs finish number one overall at the position? Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, absolutely. Every time he touches a football, I start to tingle.

[Andy Holloway]

But I don't think he could. I don't think he could finish number one without a Montgomery injury.

[Jason Moore]

I do, I do think that that could happen, but your odds are not very high. Yeah, I think with the efficiency it's possible, but you'd have to have a philosophical change in what you're doing around the goal line a little bit. And you know, it's possible with the Ben Johnson change, that, that happens. But Amon Ross St. Brown continues to be a machine in this offense.

[Mike Wright]

I feel like there's not a ton to talk about with him.

[Jason Moore]

No, it doesn't seem that way. He's just belongs in the first round, in the late part of the first.

[Mike Wright]

Round, he's really safe. Can. Okay, I guess here's a question. Can he finish as the wide receiver one.

[Jason Moore]

No, no, no. Jameson Williams, though, in the sixth round. I love that value, if you didn't know. I like that value. And as long as he stays that far away from the front of the draft, I will continue to like that value. Sam Laporta finished a lot stronger than he started last year. Don't want him to be ignored.

[Mike Wright]

No. I'm slowly moving more and more in on the idea of drafting Laporta.

[Jason Moore]

It was a really, really strong finish. And so again, if you can't Run the way you want to run. You got to utilize some of that passing game. That's also the case for golf. Having more success potentially or at least putting up the big yardage numbers, success wise. Who knows if he throws more picks or things like that. But Green Bay on the road, tough one to start. Then at home against Chicago, then in Baltimore and then at home against Cleveland. So that'll be fun to see what this team can do to start the year. We're going to take a break and come back with, well, a lot more question marks. All right, boys, it's time to talk about the Minnesota vikings who went 14 and three last year.

[Andy Holloway]

They were not supposed to be good.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And that, that line, that narrative, that thought process around Minnesota is so perfectly applicable to how we view this year and projecting them. This idea of what is supposed to happen when you have a young quarterback or an unproven quarterback or a quarterback we perceived as bad.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he was proven. Sam Darnold was a proven quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

And yet 14 and three was Sam Darnold. I mean, this was like the idea of Sam Darnold having this kind of success was. It was almost out of, out of the question.

[Mike Wright]

It was wild.

[Jason Moore]

They, they had the largest discrepancy in their Vegas line to what they did of any team in the last 10 years. So that was their season. They were projected to win six and a half games. They won 14 games. They went nine and one and one score games.

[Mike Wright]

And this year is disrespectful.

[Jason Moore]

And this year it's at eight and a half. I, and I get it, I really do. It's a, it's a brutal division. They have the fifth hardest strength of schedule and they've got a, essentially for all intents and purposes, a rookie quarterback. A rookie. A quarterback that is not played yet.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. In order to. J.J. mcCarthy, in order to project the Vikings with accuracy, you have to first be correct on whether McCarthy is it or not or you know, how fast he can step into being an NFL franchise quarterback right now, year one.

[Jason Moore]

Or you have a different discussion on his face. That discussion is that maybe being. It doesn't even matter to Kevin o'. Connell. Maybe just playing quarterback matters to Kevin o' Connell because when you look at, you know, Sam Darnold was the quarterback eight with Kevin o'. Connell. When Nick Mullins was the quarterback, he was a top 12 quarterback in three or four starts. When Josh Dobbs was his quarterback, he was a top 12 quarterback in two of his five games. When Kirk Cousins was the quarterback he was the quarterback four and quarterback seven. Maybe Kevin o' Connell is just that good.

[Andy Holloway]

And in addition to Kevin o' Connell setting whoever the quarterback is up for success. I believe JJ McCarthy, like I think he is really, really good. I think he's better than Sam Darnold.

[Jason Moore]

I did laugh at the throwing the ball a few times to TJ Hawkinson against no defense with no pads on clip that was surfacing.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I didn't get to see.

[Jason Moore]

Let me explain it to you. Hold on. He is going to be hard for you to believe. J.J. mcCarthy, right. They drafted him to play quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Quarterback, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Get this. He throws the football.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, I'm listening.

[Jason Moore]

His receiver down the field.

[Andy Holloway]

Hawkinson.

[Jason Moore]

He caught it.

[Mike Wright]

Hawkinson caught it.

[Jason Moore]

Hawkinson caught.

[Andy Holloway]

No drops?

[Jason Moore]

No, no, I didn't see any drops. There were like three or four, three or four times in a row where.

[Mike Wright]

He threw it Three or four times in a row.

[Jason Moore]

Threw it to the guy that looks like a Viking. And that's edited. It might be cgi. It might be cgi. No, I love the off season. It's great. But look, I am. This is my dynasty quarterback boys, J.J. mcCarthy.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know if I like that all three of us are so into J.J. mcCarthy because I am, I am very in. I think he is going to be a great starting quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

And I check that video out, man, you're really going to believe it.

[Mike Wright]

And Kevin o' Connell has. He just gives us guys like is Nick Mullins good?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Mike Wright]

Do you. If you need me to.

[Andy Holloway]

If you need me to kill him.

[Mike Wright]

The answer is no.

[Jason Moore]

No, he's not. And that's why I said maybe being it. Yeah. How about you just be okay? Okay. For Kevin o' Connell is good for this offense and good enough for this offense. This is a defense that's going to be very good. A head coach is going to put him into the position of being in those close games and look, McCarthy's going to have to go out and do it and execute the offense. I would say if you give him somebody like Justin Jefferson is going to help that process out and he's got, you know, they got a running game that I think you can trust and Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, they have Jordan Addison that will be returning and is an explosive playmaker. Hawkinson healthy right going into this season. So there's a lot to like.

[Andy Holloway]

Their defense is very good. I think this is a very well built team and you know, for fantasy purposes, it's TBD on whether you really want the fantasy games of McCarthy, you know, yes, very similar to Darnold. He finished as the quarterback eight, but it wasn't always, you know, easy, you know, week in, week out starts that you wanted. And McCarthy, we're not sure how much he's going to run. He had a season in college where I think he had 400 rushing yards, so he's got some legs that he can use, but I doubt that that's what they want to do. So it's kind of tbd, but I don't worry about him when it comes to the pass catchers. I don't look at Hawkinson and Addison and obviously not Justin Jefferson and say I've got to, I've got to demote these guys. Lower them.

[Jason Moore]

In my ranking, they were 14 and three with the ninth with a, you know, they're ninth and points per game. So it wasn't like they were like Darnold was winning ball games but it wasn't like they were a top five offense or something like that. So they can win execution wise.

[Mike Wright]

And while McCarthy may, he may not be like, give us enough of the mobility that we want for fantasy football. Through three seasons, Kevin o' Connell's team ranks and pass rate over expectation. Sixth, sixth and third. And in that list. Please go back to the quarterback list. They still, the game plan didn't change. They didn't say, you know, like, oh, let's manage Darnold. Yeah, like in the Green Bay packers last year, they lost love and it's Willis in there and they're like, we're not throwing the ball ever. Like the Vikings changed nothing about their game plan.

[Jason Moore]

And if you want to talk about the offensive line like Jason did with Detroit, they were the 18th ranked offensive line to end the 2024 season. They're going into the 2025 season ranked seventh. They added an offensive lineman in the first round and Donovan Jackson, they added guards, they added a, they got the Indy, a great Ryan Kelly also center in Indianapolis. It's, it's looking like all the structure is there. For McCarthy to succeed, he's got to go out and do it. And obviously winning 14 games is a, that's a tall task. But eight and a half is where they have them right now and it's a tough division. Like I said, every team in this division has a brutal strength of schedule in part because they play one another. So let's talk about two other pieces of the Vikings real quick. The backfield and how you think the split will go with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. And the upside there and then let's talk about T.J. hawkinson being drafted in the fifth round. You know, what kind of value or upside does he represent? And start. Let's start with the running back still, because, Mike, you've been vocal about Jordan Mason and his potential. I think Aaron Jones in the late 6th is still a good pick. Are both those guys on the table then?

[Mike Wright]

We, we mentioned it briefly in the mock draft episode from Tuesday. Aaron Jones is a. He is a difficult evaluation for me because generally speaking, he's the running back. 23 on a high powered offense. Yes, that's an archetype that I would want. But he's 30 and a half years old. He's coming off of a year where he had the most opportunities in his entire career. And that includes 255 carries and 51 receptions. Like he got used a lot. So you're like, okay, I should be really interested in Aaron Jones. And then like they did a. They worked out his money a little bit more, but they were also then very aggressive in going after Jordan Mason right in the free agency period. They trade for him from the San Francisco 49ers. They immediately give him money. And Mason was the. Mason was one of the most successful runners in last year.

[Jason Moore]

I was going to say, let's just give people a quick reminder of what happened with McCarthy when CMC went out last year. Jordan Mason was the RB3 in week one on 28 attempts at 5.2 a carry. He was the RB7 in week two, another hundred yard game. And then in week four, another hundred yard game. I mean those, those four games, 4.9 a carry and averaged like he would have put up 1900 rushing yards that year.

[Andy Holloway]

And remember how the season started for the Vikings with Ty Chandler? They wanted like Ty Chandler's going to, you know, get involved. They wanted a split backfield. They gave him 11 opportunities, 10 opportunities, 16 opportunities. Then their bye week comes and then it's he's playing 4%, 0%.

[Mike Wright]

They were done.

[Jason Moore]

Are you saying they wanted a committee with Jones?

[Andy Holloway]

They wanted that, but then they brought Ty Chandler, didn't have it. And so now Jordan Mason has it.

[Mike Wright]

Right. It was Acres, right? Yeah, they got. Yeah. So they then. Right. In week seven, they bring Acres back to the team, they trade for him and. Yeah, and Ty Chandler is gone. So the. Where it's difficult for Jordan Mason is you want the high value touch of the reception. He's not going to do very much of that. Aaron Jones will have that role. But they, the coaching staff has talked about Jordan Mason in like they brought up the short area, the short yardage and goal line. So if Jordan Mason while he's not going to be electric for super electric I should say for fantasy because if he's not getting those receptions but if you're drafting a guy in the 13th round who's going to get the goal line opportunities for the Minnesota Vikings there is excitement there and would be a.

[Jason Moore]

Prolific back if the injury. If an injury to Aaron Jones happens. So that's. That's. That's worth considering for sure. Mason's basically freeze a 13th round pick RB46 so keep an eye on him at the end of drafts. I know we just took him. I think Jason might have got him at the end of the last mock.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah I think he's a great pick like the I don't think it would be wild if they trained Detroit Lions this like of Jordan Mason is the hammer and then Aaron Jones is the is the pass catcher and more of the lightning guy.

[Jason Moore]

Hawkinson are we feeling good with the fifth round price or is that about as high as.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't personally feel good with the fifth round price. He is not a true difference maker at the position. If you're in league that's a.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

If you're in a league.

[Jason Moore]

This was a tight end for tight end two tight end four three seasons before. So that's. I feel like that's a profound statement to say he's not a difference maker.

[Andy Holloway]

My point is the tight end 4 if he finishes as the tight end 4 I don't think he's a difference maker the way that when you're spending the draft capital on a Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, even George Kittle. I have TJ Hawkinson as my tight end four. He is currently ranked there. But whether I'm giving up a fifth round running back or wide receiver to draft a guy like Hawkinson if I'm in a league I don't care that much about and I don't want to scour the waivers and I just want to lock in a tight end. I'll probably take Hawk because I'll be like that's easy. I know I could just leave him there every week.

[Jason Moore]

You got him in the seventh in our mock.

[Andy Holloway]

I love that. If he. If he falls in your draft.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Grab him. It's just opportunity cost.

[Mike Wright]

You took him in the mock right before Sam Laporta. So you. You're a Hawkinson over.

[Andy Holloway]

I got hawkinson4 laporta5 in my ranking.

[Mike Wright]

I would go Laporta Andy, what would you do with those two guys?

[Jason Moore]

I should double check where I have.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I have Hawkinson one spot ahead and I'm going to evaluate my stats.

[Jason Moore]

I have a Hawkinson. I have Hawkinson ahead.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, maybe that's one of the two. That could be the thing. I go on the stats and I say, oh, no, my heart got it right.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, I have Hawkinson projected for 115 targets in the offense he was at.

[Mike Wright]

He's a.

[Jason Moore]

He's a PPR 7 and 129. He's going to be so helpful for, I think, J.J. mcCarthy and I think he's going to be so helpful for fantasy, especially when Addison's not on the field. So capitalizing early season, I don't really want to spend the 5th and if Laporta's on the board or Najoku is on the board, I probably just wait for the last of that group. So they start this season against Chicago, Atlanta, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. So the Bears in Week one for. I mean, that's fun. It's in Chicago. Monday Night Football. J.J. mcCarthy's first start as a pro is going to be on the road in Chicago on Monday Night Football.

[Andy Holloway]

Honestly, Chicago, Atlanta, Cincinnati is a pretty strong start to the season. Ironically, those would be the three games currently projected for Jordan Addison to miss.

[Jason Moore]

It's funny because I definitely imagine that they'll be. There'll be underdogs in Week one. No way that they're going to be favored going into Chicago. Seems fair, but not by a lot, probably. All right, let's go.

[Mike Wright]

Right now, it's one and a half.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, Wait, they're favored or Chicago is favored. Okay. Yeah, that makes sense. All right, you guys ready to turn the page here?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, sir.

[Jason Moore]

I'm really excited to talk about this team. The Green Bay Packers. The Green Bay packers were 11 and 6 last year. The Green Bay packers as a reality for the. As an NFL franchise versus your fantasy story. There's a. There's a pretty big separation between those two, and I think that that's what makes them very interesting is I. They have just been such a good team under Matt LaFleur. They've outpaced their Vegas win total in five of six years under McClure. But the story for fantasy was like disappointment in Jordan Love struggling to find any consistency from any sort of wide receiver. The surprise of Tucker Kraft in the middle of the year, the dependency on Josh Jacobs. He ended up being a value. It was just a little bit weird. The predictiveness of the team was not there for fantasy players. But the success of the team was still there and they had the higher win or the higher point differential than Minnesota did. But Minnesota had that amazing one score game record and Green Bay was five and five and one store games. They have the 10th hardest schedule, which I think is the best of the division. So I'm really excited to talk about them. I think they're going to be right in the mix all year long. 8th in points per game, 7th in yards per game. Had a good defense in terms of those metrics. But how in the world do we find the fantasy value?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I'll tell you how you find it. Luck. I mean, I mean, genuinely, like there will be fantasy value here.

[Mike Wright]

Hey, just get lucky.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, that feels like what it's going to have to be because let's say there's no injuries here. All right? Matthew golden and Jaden Reed and Romeo Dobbs and Don, Tavian Wicks. They're all healthy. They're all playing. Tucker Kraft is healthy. He's playing. They're going to spread the ball around to great success on the NFL field and to much chagrin for fantasy football. So how you find the success is getting the healthy ones while not everyone stays healthy. That's what it feels like for me. And that is assuming that Jacobs does not continue to score a touchdown every single week on the ground.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I think, I think so let's start with the easy answers, which is Josh Jacobs. Great pick, great player, should be very productive. Are we agreed?

[Andy Holloway]

I am there. Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, so we, we are in agreement. But I. Let's see, where is he going? Like the running back?

[Andy Holloway]

Josh Jacobs is the running back nine back of the second.

[Jason Moore]

Like, I'm fine with that, man.

[Mike Wright]

That, that's, that's the bigger question for me. Of. I need to pull up some names there.

[Jason Moore]

So he was going on. He finished last year as the RB5, gets drafted this year as the RB9. He was. He led the NFL and, you know, with 14 rushing touchdowns inside the 10. We know they turned him and we know he gets it done there. 58% of his yards were after contact. Like, he just, he just was really, really good last year.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

And, and they figured out how to use him near the goal line to incredible success.

[Jason Moore]

So. So we'll see if the offensive line can hold up. But that, that seems like one of the easier answers.

[Mike Wright]

Well, it, it. I don't think it's completely easy from the perspective.

[Jason Moore]

Mike's ruined my whole flow. Hey, I wanted an easy win, but.

[Mike Wright]

I think that this is the.

[Andy Holloway]

No easy wins on this. No easy wins on this show.

[Jason Moore]

I want to hear it.

[Mike Wright]

I just, this is the important. Ruining everything about. Just go on of the passing versus the rushing where last year you're like, yeah, whoa. Josh Jacobs at the end of the year was, it was a touchdown every single week. And so back in 2023, 76% of their touchdowns were passing touchdowns. And then that completely swung the other direction. Like 76 is too high. But like Matt LaFleur with Jordan Love, this has been a successful passing offense. And then looking at what happened with Jordan Love. Jordan Love, Week 1, hurts his ankle at the, at the very end of that Brazil game. Misses a few weeks, comes back still good. He goes like he's right back to the QB, to a QB 16, not as great, but QB 4, QB 11. Then he hurts his groin and like you can't, you can't really box score check for this because he kept playing. He got taken out of that game against Jacksonville, but from then on out he was passing the ball 10 fewer times per game. So like they were still saying, we want Jordan Love out there, he's our better option to win. But they completely shifted to a more run heavy approach. And my concern for Josh Jacobs at that back of the second is that the pendulum swings Back to what LaFleur and Jordan love have historically been doing.

[Jason Moore]

Let's, let's, let's try to find a compromise here, Mike. Okay, here's the compromise. I love Jordan Love. I think that you're right. I think everything you said is right. I think they would have loved to have used his skills and abilities more last year, but he's limited by injury and you saw the pendulum swing. But I think when you get inside the 20, Josh Jacobs is an above average weapon and wins in that area.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, we can be in agreement on that.

[Jason Moore]

So that means that we can swing the pendulum back a little bit in total volume. In that pass percentage. They were 30th in pass percentage. That's insane for that kind of an offense. But we don't really have to take a lot of value away from Josh Jacobs because I think the dude's going to get into the end zone. I think you can have more balance, I think you can find a middle ground. But I think Jacobs doesn't necessarily need, you know, they don't need to run at the third highest clip in the league for Jacobs to be valuable.

[Mike Wright]

The where he's going is just, it's so interesting for, for how you're building the team because like back of the second my, my rankings with Josh Jacobs I'm a couple spots lower than where he's going in adp. But that not a huge difference where I'm like upset about where he's going. But how are you building your team? Because after him, you know, do you want, do you want Josh Jacobs or do you want to get Lamar on your team or do you want to wait for Kyron or Chase Brown who are later in the third round and take a wide receiver in the second? That's where he is. An interesting discussion.

[Jason Moore]

The truth of the matter is is if you, if you're taking Josh Jacobs you, you're probably Josh, Chase, Jefferson, Amon Ra, I mean you're one of the top tier whiteouts. If you took them in the first and you swing all the way back around to the back of the second right, you're probably Jacobs. At least you can get a running back one in that boat. But if it swings a little bit. Can Jordan Love be an elite fantasy quarterback? Maybe we, maybe we don't talk about trying to figure out which wide receiver is going to get it done every week. Maybe we talk more about do they just have enough guys with talent to make Jordan Love more viable.

[Andy Holloway]

We know Jordan Love can be valuable. He was the quarterback five two years ago. I think the odds are stacked against him to truly be really valuable with a good running game and a good defense. If they're, you know, if they do well this year like they did last year like they're projected to do this coming year, I don't think they're going to throw the ball as much. Like two years ago you, he, Jordan Love threw the ball 579 times this last year because it wasn't his touchdown. Like I know Josh Jacobs we felt like was vulturing all the touchdowns. But Jordan Love's touchdown rate went up last year. He went up last year even though he finished as quarterback 17.

[Mike Wright]

Do you know what his attempt pace was before the groin injury?

[Andy Holloway]

I know what his attempt pace was on the entire touchdown.

[Jason Moore]

Pace was 51 at that point and.

[Mike Wright]

His, his attempts would have been over 600 on the season.

[Andy Holloway]

So you're saying because of the groin injury.

[Mike Wright]

Saying that the groin, the groin narrative. Yeah, like he, you can't find this one on groinindex.com I don't think we don't.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, there's not articles over there, just injuries.

[Mike Wright]

However, there is a very clear line drawn in the box score when the attempts those weekends plummeted.

[Andy Holloway]

Was that Against Jacksonville.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

I look, I will say I'll weigh in. I think Jordan Love can be a top five quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, nice.

[Jason Moore]

They add, I love Tucker Kraft. I love Jaden Reed. And I. And I think they made a priority. Love or hate Matthew Golden.

[Mike Wright]

He will help Jordan.

[Jason Moore]

He will help Jordan Love.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, of course.

[Jason Moore]

Let's not try to make Matthew golden something he's not. But Christian Watson will play for this team. Don Tavian Wick still plays. Romeo Dobbs plays for this team.

[Mike Wright]

The nice thing for the wide receivers, he's like, well, how. How are you going to approach them? Risk is baked into every single Green Bay Packer wide receiver no one wants.

[Jason Moore]

Into the draft price.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Like ADP Wise. Jaden Reed, who is the he on. On field, is their best wide receiver. He doesn't always be on the field, but on field he is. And he's the wide receiver. 44. This is.

[Jason Moore]

These are also baked into. Nothing is baked into Love's price. Last year he was. He was going too high. We were all nervous. He's a quarterback, 12 off the board. I mean, if you want to take a shot, I don't mind it. Now, I also understand liking other players like Drake May or if you want to roll the Jared Goff or Bo Nix or Brock Purdy.

[Andy Holloway]

So many quarterbacks falling behind Jordan Love that I prefer over Jordan Love. And obviously this is. This is. I mean, we'll find out what happens. Maybe it was the groin, but also they had a new player in Josh Jacobs that just. They figured out how to use him more and more and more. And, you know, he did well. So I don't know. But here's what I do know. I know that Jordan Love does not run the ball. He is not going to be a mobile rushing quarterback. And I know that if you draft those guys in fantasy and you want a season where he's going to finish top five, which he's done before, you're going to need to throw for, you know, near 4,500 yards and near 35 touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

You know what I just realized?

[Andy Holloway]

It's just got to go perfect.

[Jason Moore]

I just realized that I am not excited to have to predict the order of this division in a little while.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's what I just realized. I've got mine written.

[Mike Wright]

I've been already because I've been ruminating.

[Jason Moore]

You're smart. Because, Lud, I can. I can argue so many directions. All right, we got to take another break.

[Mike Wright]

One team that you won't put at one.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah. We got to take A break and we're going to talk about them in a minute.

[Mike Wright]

Just trying to rile up the Bears group to attack you.

[Jason Moore]

It's not hard to do. The Bears are the final team we get to play.

[Mike Wright]

We don't hate the Bears. Everybody.

[Andy Holloway]

No, not at all.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I do.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Packers fan hates the Bears.

[Jason Moore]

Al Borland.

[Mike Wright]

We'll allow it.

[Jason Moore]

Wait, do you even. Are they good enough to hate? I mean, the rivalry still exists. Okay. Just making sure. They were five and 12 last year. They had a win total of eight and a half. They did not deliver on that, by the way. No one will want to hear this, but over the last 10 years they have surpassed their Vegas win total before the season one time. So ten years worth of. And we're not talking about big win totals here, boys. We're talking six and a half. Seven and a half. Five and a half. Seven and a Half. Nine. Eight. Seven and a half. Five, a half. Seven and a half and eight and a half.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, gross.

[Jason Moore]

So I guess.

[Andy Holloway]

Bet the under.

[Jason Moore]

I guess that is. That. That's. That's rough, man. After the week six win last year when you. You mentioned they were four and two, they lost 10 straight games. They have the seventh hardest schedule this year according to Warren Sharp, their win total is projected at eight and a half. So nowhere to go but up. Points per game, 28 yards per game. 32nd. Caleb Williams Rookie season. Not a fantasy gold mine.

[Mike Wright]

Nope.

[Jason Moore]

Ben Johnson's your new head coach. Matt Eber flu. Eber flew the coop.

[Mike Wright]

Got it.

[Jason Moore]

I guess he was forced.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he flew the coop like one of those. The mama birds. That's like you're not going to make it.

[Jason Moore]

So this is a Ben Johnson story. Can you get Caleb Williams playing the way he needs to play?

[Andy Holloway]

Offensive line is massively changed.

[Jason Moore]

Honestly, they've reworked.

[Mike Wright]

That's the best part. The best part of the off season was they've done so many things.

[Jason Moore]

24Th to fourth in PFF rankings. Beautiful Joe Tooney. Welcome to town. They invest in Colson Loveland, Luther Burden and they've got. You know, they have a lot of potential in the. In the wide receiver room. Roma Dunes a hype.

[Andy Holloway]

It's so.

[Jason Moore]

I know.

[Andy Holloway]

I want them to be good so bad. If Caleb Williams comes out this year and is who they drafted him to be, that is so good for the NFL. That's so much fun for fantasy.

[Jason Moore]

There's.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. There are so many players on this team that it could be that will be just fantasy gold.

[Jason Moore]

So let me. Let's do this experiment. All right. I think I have a good game to play with Chicago. Their win total is eight and a half. I'm going to give them 10 wins if they win 10 games. Okay. If they win 10 games, I'm going to read their players and their draft position and you tell me if you'll be happy.

[Andy Holloway]

If they win 10 games. If they win 10 games.

[Jason Moore]

DeAndre Swift, seven late, seventh round pick. If they win 10 games, is that a steal?

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. They win 10 games. D.J. moore, wide receiver, 20 off the board at 406. Is that a good pick?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Roma Dunes, a seventh round pick, middle of the seventh, wide receiver, 36. Is that a good pick?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, maybe.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Colson Loveland, 11th round tight end, 16 off the board. Is that a good pick? If they win 10 games?

[Andy Holloway]

Probably, yes.

[Jason Moore]

And then last one, Caleb Williams, late ninth QB, 14 off the board. They win 10 games. Does he outperform that?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think so.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, do they win 10 games? Can you do me a favor and read that thing you said about it?

[Jason Moore]

Let's do it.

[Mike Wright]

If they win 14 games, guys.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I don't think they went 10 games.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

I, I came into this off season, I've shared this story once earlier in the off season.

[Jason Moore]

By the way, winning 10 is just one and a half over their Vegas line. Just for the record, Al back there going, this is silly. They got no chance. We know how you feel about the Bears. What's your win total for the Bears?

[Andy Holloway]

Seven, you know.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, okay. All right. Generous.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

What's your win total for the Lions?

[Andy Holloway]

7:12.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Sorry we can't talk to Owl about this division. You know, when I finished my first run through of the udk, stating very bullish on Caleb Williams, very bullish on DJ Moore, the upgraded offensive line and Loveland. Loveland was super high. And I went back and I watched every single throw of Caleb Williams last year.

[Jason Moore]

And I watched this.

[Mike Wright]

I would recommend not doing that.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And I.

[Jason Moore]

Some of them, some of them were nice.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, he has. He definitely had the flashes of brilliance. The flashes where you go, wow, that arm, that angle that you know, that you know Caleb Williams, every piece of heart.

[Jason Moore]

Well, a good summary of what Caleb Williams was capable of doing last year was three or four plays in a row to come down the field to go for a game winning field goal and then make a mistake before you get quite close enough. That's kind of how it felt.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. But when he threw from a clean pocket to a normal wide receiver, just breaking on a Slant and was inaccurate.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So much. I was just like, obviously he could fix that. Right. He.

[Jason Moore]

There are quarterbacks gun shy in a pocket where you're getting sacked all the time.

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely. And that is the hope. That is my rooting interest. I'm still in the mock draft. We just did. I took DJ Moore because the path is so clear for it to be really good for the Bears. I am personally, if I have to make a bet, if I've got to put a chip on, is Caleb. Is Caleb Williams really good? You know, I'm doing the same thing with J.J. mcCarthy. I don't think so. I think Caleb Williams goes more the route of Trevor Lawrence where he is capable. He'll get another big money contract. But I don't think he's going to develop into. You know, when you had Trevor Lawrence drafted, he was supposed to be the next greatest since Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck was supposed to be the next greatest since Peyton. Andrew Luck was. He was that.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he was great.

[Andy Holloway]

Trevor Lawrence wasn't. Well, Caleb Williams is one of those like generational. He's supposed to be that good. I don't think he's going to be.

[Jason Moore]

6, 8 sacks last year, 41 throwaways, which was number one in the league. 44th out of 47 in catchable target rate for Caleb Williams. It really will. Their season will go with Caleb this year with the fact that they built. They've built some of that structure I talked about around McCarthy. They built some of that structure here in Chicago. Finally they're not just leaning on Caleb's. I think it started as Caleb come save the franchise and we're not going to do anything right around you. Now it's Caleb we realize we're going to ruin you.

[Andy Holloway]

It's been Johnson come and save Caleb.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's save Caleb. And the only. The only really big debate. Look, I think we all think DJ Moore is a good player. So if things are going well for them, he'll be good. Roma dunes. I think we still believe in Roma Dunes. They'd to be a good player. No more Keenan Allen targets available. DeAndre Swift is the bigger question where like he looks like he could be a value in the seventh round. But I don't know if any of us necessarily believe that he's the greatest running back in football. So if you look at potential sleeper value on this team, you have to look at someone like Roshan Johnson.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Back behind DeAndre Swift where it's like, hey, I can see a world where DeAndre Swift, I call him I think he's a dumb runner. I think he's a dumb runner. I think he has benefited from the Philadelphia offensive line but I don't think he's a great. I don't think he has a great feel for the defense on a play to play basis. And now he could benefit from this offensive line but at the same time if Ben Johnson comes in and sets up, this is how you run the offense is how you do a run play. And this guy is not running where he's supposed to run. I don't think he's going to hesitate to putting other players in there. So to me it's. There is a risk factor with Swift in that I think Roshan is okay. I think he's a pretty good player there.

[Mike Wright]

The question for Swift will be how many receptions does he get? Because like the last time we had Swift with, with Ben Johnson the rushing attempts were down but the fantasy points were still good because for all of his inefficiency Swift is still a top tier athlete. And the running back room is tough because you have Roshan who I think Roshan is still a projection of like of you have to say, well I think Roshan's good. It feels we should know at this point if Roshan Johnson's a good player but we don't. And then they took Kyle Menon guy in the, in the seventh round and there look there are people on draft order that are excited for him but he was a seventh round pick. I know back to back 1200 rushing yards at Rutgers. Look, that's the production profile.

[Andy Holloway]

Is there seventh round Rutgers running back. Yeah, this is reminding me, this is.

[Jason Moore]

Reminding me of Kamani Vidal Sassoon.

[Mike Wright]

Well or Pacheco.

[Jason Moore]

But that's what the outlier is not the.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah that's not, that's not the real saying that. Yeah. Generally speaking betting against the seventh rounder for Roshan who even.

[Jason Moore]

Who's the Tampa Bay guy that everyone got all hyped and draft Twitter which at which point.

[Mike Wright]

Sean Tucker.

[Jason Moore]

No, no, no no no no. Keyshawn Vaughn.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh yeah but he was a second round pick, wasn't he?

[Jason Moore]

Third Keisha Vaughn.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, Vaughn was. Let me get that.

[Jason Moore]

Oh he was. He was a third round pick.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So there was draft cap. He was.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Oh gosh. Well he played like a seventh round pick.

[Andy Holloway]

Well that he did.

[Jason Moore]

So so look, but point being is. Oh my gosh. I got to figure out this division.

[Mike Wright]

Is I think at the end of a draft it's worth taking one of those. One of the Other running backs for Chicago just. Does Ben Johnson try his best to duplicate Detroit or does he have something completely brand new?

[Jason Moore]

Over.

[Mike Wright]

Overall, I will say for the Chicago Bears is there's.

[Andy Holloway]

There.

[Mike Wright]

Not everyone's going to land. Not everyone will hit for this team. And there are so many exciting names, but the reality is not all of them can hit guys.

[Jason Moore]

This is not fair.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't even know it's.

[Jason Moore]

This division is not fair. Not because. Because it will be an insult to somebody to put them in the bottom two spots. That's the problem with.

[Andy Holloway]

You're going to insult somebody. And it could go to. It could go to anybody here real, real quick to get back to Caleb Williams and what I was seeing from a clean pocket. He was 33rd in clean pocket completion.

[Jason Moore]

Percentage out of like 600 though, right?

[Andy Holloway]

No, out of 36.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, out of 36.

[Andy Holloway]

So.

[Jason Moore]

Crap.

[Andy Holloway]

That's. That's what I was seeing. That makes me.

[Jason Moore]

That's why I house them with negative four wins this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And all of those negative four go to the Packers. Somehow they're added to that total.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

I've got my division.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, this is. This is brutal. This is brutal. I do not. Oh, my gosh. I don't like it.

[Andy Holloway]

You want me to go first?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I have it written down, but, man, I don't want to say it out loud.

[Andy Holloway]

I know. I know. This one is. I hope we have three completely different answers.

[Jason Moore]

We might go ahead.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going Vikings winning the division.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Followed by the Lions and the packers and the Bears.

[Jason Moore]

I don't have that.

[Mike Wright]

I don't either.

[Jason Moore]

I got Green Bay winning the division. So do I. I'm going to take Green Bay.

[Andy Holloway]

Wow. None of us have the Lions winning.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to take Detroit in second place.

[Mike Wright]

That's where I'm going.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to take.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you putting the Bears.

[Jason Moore]

I am in Minnesota third and Chicago fourth. I want to give hope to Chicago fans. And I do think you have hope. But that hope. What is it? When hope takes a while, it floats. Hope prolonged.

[Andy Holloway]

Hopium.

[Jason Moore]

Is it a hope prolonged like we. Whatever makes the love stronger in future success. That's the kind of hope.

[Andy Holloway]

Pessimistic hope.

[Jason Moore]

Ah. All right. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

But also.

[Jason Moore]

So Mike and I have the same.

[Mike Wright]

We do.

[Jason Moore]

Hope deferred makes the heart sick. No, that's not the one that works. That might have been what I was thinking of. But that's not going to help the Bears fans.

[Mike Wright]

It was so wild last year that you had three playoff teams. From this division. It could happen again. I putting the Vikings in third. But I think the Vikings are a 10 plus win team.

[Jason Moore]

I think they are. They're the one team that I'm like, because of their one score game record and the quarterback change, it's like, okay, maybe something goes sideways and look, injuries happen and all of a sudden divisions don't finish the way you think they will. They. Any of these guys lose a quarterback, yeah, you're in big trouble. But man, I'm sorry to whoever I offended in that order.

[Mike Wright]

I'm not.

[Jason Moore]

But at least Mike and I can be insulted together. So you went Minnesota, Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

I did.

[Jason Moore]

So none of us gave Detroit the division. Look at us trying to be. This is all your fault because you wanted us to not be chalky chalk boys.

[Mike Wright]

No, I didn't. I think the Lions, like, I have Green Bay winning the division, so they're in. I think the Lions are in the playoffs also.

[Jason Moore]

Al is now. He's in love with me. And you. I mean, Al has got to be thrilled back there. I am shocked and very happy. I love, I, I honestly, I love Green Bay, I love Detroit and I love Minnesota.

[Andy Holloway]

Agreed.

[Jason Moore]

And they can't all. Can they all tie.

[Andy Holloway]

And if I, if I could, if I could have a magic wand and make one team out there great this year, I would choose the Bears. I want, I mean, I think that would be.

[Jason Moore]

Chicago's in the NFC South. Where do they finish? That'll be a question.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Saints. They're better than the Saints.

[Andy Holloway]

They're better than the Saints, right?

[Mike Wright]

Better than the Panthers.

[Jason Moore]

Better than the Panthers. And then you've got Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and that's a debate.

[Mike Wright]

But at least I'll put Bears at least in second.

[Jason Moore]

I know. Sorry. Sorry. Chicago.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, take that. AFC Southampa. Chicago, Atlanta.

[Jason Moore]

NFC South. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

AFC south just got bodied.

[Jason Moore]

All right, that'll do it. Back with another episode Saturday. Don't miss it.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot. Com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.