
Fantasy Football show for July 19, 2025. NFC South preview for the 2025 fantasy football season! Get a full breakdown for the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers, and Saints! Will Baker Mayfield dominate again? Can the Panthers take a step forward? Plus, Rashee Rice legal news and more. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast.
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Andy Holloway
Ready to make a play for your future? Southern New Hampshire University has hundreds of career focused degrees you can earn totally online. No set class times means you never have to miss a game. And low tuition means you can still dominate a few leagues on the side. No Wonder more than 200,000 people have made Southern New Hampshire University their first pick. Visit snhu.edu footballers to get started. That's Snhu. Edu Footballers. This message is brought to you by Apple Pay. No matter where you're going this summer, odds are you'll need to pay for a few things, like a ride, share a souvenir or dinner at that spot on your bucket list. Instead of digging for your wallet every time, just use Apple Pay. It's accepted anywhere you see the contactless symbol and all it takes is a tap with iPhone or Apple watch. The best part is you'll still earn the card rewards, points and cash back you love. Easy setup now, easier travels later with Apple. Pay terms apply. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.
Jason Moore
Welcome in. Oh, it's Saturday. Oh, vroom, vroom. Hop on that lawnmower, Jason.
Mike Wright
Did we get you in on the idea, Jay? If the riding mower.
Andy Holloway
I still live in Arizona. No. No way.
Jason Moore
What about.
Andy Holloway
You know how hot that lawnmower is? My skin is seared.
Jason Moore
No, no, no, no, no. Enclosed with air conditioning.
Andy Holloway
Oh, absolutely. I'm in. Yeah.
Mike Wright
It's. Do they make any of those, like, the Popemobile, Right?
Andy Holloway
Like, I'll go. I'll go mow the grass of, like, the Cardinals.
Jason Moore
He's just being. He's just being displayed.
Mike Wright
I know, but I was saying, like, put some blades on the bottom of that thing.
Jason Moore
I haven't looked at a picture of the pomobile in a while.
Andy Holloway
It's got to have blades, right?
Jason Moore
Yeah. It's also multifunctional.
Andy Holloway
No.
Jason Moore
Is that like. Is it just glass, though, up top?
Mike Wright
I think it's Saran Wrap.
Jason Moore
Saran Wrap?
Andy Holloway
I don't know.
Mike Wright
No idea.
Jason Moore
When's the last time the Pop Mobile went out for a ride?
Mike Wright
I don't. It's just fun. It's a fun word to say.
Jason Moore
Happy Saturday, everybody. It's the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Back with you, NFC south breakdown episode. So enjoy your weekend chores with us. We're excited to talk about this division. There are. There are questions, there are hopefully some answers on today's episode in terms of players that we're into as we look at all the changes and, you know, it's going to be interesting in Atlanta in particular with a quarterback change. And now I'm getting bombarded with popemobile pictures.
Mike Wright
I've moved on to the booger mobile and just reminiscent.
Jason Moore
What a tragedy, the booger mobile blocking everybody's view.
Mike Wright
ESPN had booger on there and they were like, we got to get this.
Andy Holloway
Guy out of here.
Mike Wright
And they're like, what do we do? Put him on this contraption on the sideline that blocks all the big paying customers.
Jason Moore
The older I get, the more I realize how dumb people are in every single field, right? There are a lot of them, like production, like product. Like, I watched the mlb. I saw a brief clip of the MLB Home Run Derby, and somebody there thought that what we wanted to see was a whole lot of the pitchers, which are like the bat, the coaches.
Mike Wright
That are in the shot in the.
Jason Moore
Derby, in the derby shot. We got like a huge view of the net and their arms and then. And a little view of the battered.
Andy Holloway
Hmm.
Jason Moore
And then like, what? The NBA? The NBA on ESPN with the graphics that look like they came from 1994, where instead of showing me the replay.
Mike Wright
You are burning so many bridges for us right now.
Jason Moore
You show me a claymation animation of the replay. Where I want to watch the replay.
Mike Wright
These opinions are only shared by Andrew Holloway, right?
Andy Holloway
They are his own.
Jason Moore
You brought up the booger. That was espn.
Andy Holloway
It was great.
Mike Wright
What an idea. Bring it back.
Jason Moore
Oh, my goodness. All right.
Mike Wright
Well, it's so big and they're like, just slap a television on the back of it so that. So the fans won't miss anything.
Jason Moore
Booger flying up and down the sidelines.
Mike Wright
Good.
Jason Moore
Well, good, good. Thank you for joining us. If you want to watch this show, you can do so on YouTube. YouTube.com/the fantasy footballers. Make sure you subscribe and click the bell. That'll let you know when Mike's going live. Sunday Live. Coming soon. With the NFL coming in hot, we've got the ability to follow us over on Spotify and Apple. Drop us a five star review over there if you're. If you got a couple extra minutes this weekend, that would be awesome. That would help the show out. This fine independent podcast. You can make sure Al Borland over there keeps getting a PayCheck.
Andy Holloway
And Smirky Mcs Merkerson.
Jason Moore
Yeah, Papa Josh. We appreciate you. Papa Josh is on a big road trip this week. Took the week off to go on a big, big road trip.
Mike Wright
A virtual road trip.
Jason Moore
Virtual road trip.
Andy Holloway
Believe he's.
Jason Moore
He'll be back next week.
Mike Wright
Who knows where Josh is?
Jason Moore
You know, the problem is when he needs time off. I'm not giving it. That's all I'm saying.
Andy Holloway
Video game machine. That's.
Mike Wright
That's his video game machine. Well, are you 80,000 years old?
Andy Holloway
Well, sometimes your Nintendo's.
Mike Wright
What are you doing?
Andy Holloway
I don't know if he's playing on.
Mike Wright
A PC, but no one's ever called. Just pick one.
Jason Moore
Burn him down, Mike.
Andy Holloway
All right, let's move on. Video game machine. Oh, man.
Mike Wright
Goodness.
Andy Holloway
You know what, Mike?
Mike Wright
What?
Andy Holloway
I hate myself.
Mike Wright
Thank you.
Andy Holloway
You did it. You did it.
Jason Moore
All right.
Andy Holloway
Well, happy Saturday.
Jason Moore
Quick reminder, all of you, the Ultimate Draft Kit. That's a fun tool to, you know, you can pull that open this weekend and start looking at all of our rankings for 2025, all of our sleepers, breakouts, bust and values. Take a look at the draft analyzer, which you can break down mock drafts as well. You can load those into the draft analyzer. And that's all available@ultimate draftkit.com yeah.
Mike Wright
And guess what had to be changed? Some projections. Because it's lawyer time.
Jason Moore
It's lawyer time.
Andy Holloway
News and notes from around the league.
Jason Moore
Well, we barely missed this news on our last episode of the show, but here we go. Rashi Rice. We didn't know if his legal troubles, his legal situation was going to be taken care of ahead of the 2025 season or if we'd be waiting for another year before a potential suspension. However, news came in early on Thursday. A Dallas county judge has sentenced rashi rice to five years probation and 30 days of jail time that can be served anytime during the five years of probation.
Mike Wright
That's nice.
Jason Moore
All stemming from his role in a multi car crash in Dallas during the 2024 off season. That means that it is highly likely, although not official as of this recording, that he will serve his suspension in 2025. And that that suspension, from everything that, you know, my initial reaction to it, I took four games away from Rashi Rice. Everything I'm seeing right now from, you know, more well trained legal experts and CBA experts and Jason even ran it through the AI overlords looking at the CBA and had a deep dive, the precedent set. But it looks like four games is right in that sweet spot of what we can expect. It could be more. I mean, the league has to look at. They don't just look at what the courts determine when they determine their punishments. They also look at extenuating circumstances, mitigating circumstances, and the actual events that transpired. You know, Rashi Rice fled the scene of an accident, caused an Accident, Was charged with assault. Doesn't matter what he pleads down to. If the league determines that they want to hit him harder, that could happen. Could be an appeal, yada, yada yada.
Andy Holloway
Seems like it would be a minimum of two games. A maximum of six games is the broadest strokes. That seems like the range. And then whatever it comes out as, when it comes out, it could be challenged. And you know, if it comes out as six games, it could end up being four games once the appeal process has gone through, if Rice decides to do that. But the good news is this will all. This should all happen in time before most drafts. Like by the time we get to draft season, we should know Rashi Rice is missing the first X Games.
Mike Wright
Yeah. Shout out to the best ball bros out there who overdrafted Rice.
Jason Moore
Yeah. You know the worst part of this, I mean, not the worst part, let's be honest.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
The worst part is what happened.
Mike Wright
Pretty bad party.
Jason Moore
The worst part happened to like the people in the incident. But the second worst part is that for the first time in the whole dang off season, I draft Rashi Rice in a mock draft last year, like a show ago. And you guys are all like, Kyle's.
Andy Holloway
Going, finally you're on board the fantasy reaper.
Jason Moore
Well, I'm not on board anymore. Let me put it that way. And this is going to throw into flux Travis Kelsey, Patrick Mahomes, any hopes of like a real resurgent Patrick Mahomes year. I'm not excited about that potential right now. So Xavier Worthy's draft spot is going to change. Hollywood Browns total targets. You know, our projections for the Chiefs been completely renovated.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. When I watched the Chiefs last year especially take the first like six games, the first three with Rice, the next three without him. And you saw the same area of the field that Travis Kelsey's operating. Kelsey got off to a really slow start last year. They are vying for those same type of targets. So I think the biggest beneficiary here is Travis Kelsey. Expect him to get off to a strong start this season while Rushy Rice misses games.
Jason Moore
Yeah. Which makes sense too with just an older player, the late season or late career. Larry Fitzgerald and Heinz Ward, they had such stronger, you know, front halfs of the season. But now you have to think about, you know, you take the shot on Rashi Rice in a draft and we'll get the amount of games suspended. But this is not an IR eligible player.
Mike Wright
Correct.
Jason Moore
This is now going to be a player that, let's say it's six. Oh, man, if it's six games, you holding Rashi Rice on your bench for six games?
Mike Wright
I don't think so.
Jason Moore
He was really, really good last year. But I want to stress it was three games and it was three games where you had Pacheco injured. No, Hollywood Browned or Hollywood Brown. Not Brown. Brown. And it was a little different, right? Like Xavier Worthy was a brand new rookie who had barely had any snaps.
Andy Holloway
Like, put it this way, the before this news when there was an assumption that he would be healthy and play the entire season, there was plenty of debate on whether he was a decent draft pick or not. So it's not like this is Justin Jefferson missing four games or six games. You're going to have to hold on to someone and take up a bench spot and whatever draft capital to spend on him. You know, he's dropping down to the fourth now. Will he go later? Will he be six? I don't know what it is yet, but it's going to be a very risky pick. And you better believe you're right if you take him that he's going to be a superstar.
Jason Moore
Going to have to send somebody to law school here at the company.
Mike Wright
Seriously.
Andy Holloway
And can't be one of the deucers. They'll never pass the bar.
Mike Wright
I don't think we need him to pass the bar, though.
Andy Holloway
Oh, really?
Jason Moore
Oh, are they just auditing classes?
Mike Wright
Yeah, they just take some. Take some courses.
Jason Moore
Cheaper for us.
Mike Wright
If they pass the bar, they're leaving the us Then they're going to go be lawyers.
Andy Holloway
That's true. We don't pay them anything.
Jason Moore
They could go under the bar, you know.
Mike Wright
Yeah, that's true.
Jason Moore
Especially Matt. Jordan Addison. Guess what? Pled guilty to a lesser included vehicular offense.
Andy Holloway
We are children.
Mike Wright
We're children.
Jason Moore
I mean, the technical term. Is this what you'd like me to say?
Mike Wright
No, this, I think. Is this technical or is this slang?
Andy Holloway
This is technical. Okay, it's wet reckless. It's. He pleaded guilty on a wet reckless charge.
Mike Wright
We find you guil. So I'm seeing wet reckless.
Jason Moore
I'm seeing. I'm seeing the official judge. I'm seeing it as wet and reckless.
Andy Holloway
Whoa.
Jason Moore
I don't know which one's worse.
Andy Holloway
That one's worse. Wet and reckless.
Jason Moore
Wet and reckless.
Andy Holloway
Your Honor.
Jason Moore
Your honor, often shortened to wet reckless is a type of plea bargain where a prosecutor in Arizona agrees to or in whatever state agrees to reduce a misdemeanor driving other influence to a ridiculous name.
Andy Holloway
Jordan Addison is wet and reckless.
Jason Moore
We should not be laughing.
Mike Wright
No, no, this is a serious offense.
Andy Holloway
Really bad.
Jason Moore
Serious and reckless.
Mike Wright
And then we got to give names out like this and it's just really throws us off. It is because it's objectively funny.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
So look, he's going the tldr two to three games. Two to three games. Jordan Addison's likely to miss as a suspension for being wet and reckless.
Mike Wright
The NFL was reviewing it.
Jason Moore
So come on, are we done with that?
Andy Holloway
I mean, yeah, I could go all day.
Mike Wright
Oh, I.
Andy Holloway
So let's just move on. I don't want to, I don't want to make light at something that is a very bad decision.
Jason Moore
Okay, how about this? We've got Jefferson, nicknamed Jet. Jet and reckless. Reckless is Addison. That's the combo.
Andy Holloway
Jet and Reckless.
Jason Moore
Jet and Reckless.
Mike Wright
Mike is not in because I don't want to say the other one.
Jason Moore
Okay. The Chargers officially placed Najee Harris on the NFI the non football injury list to begin training camp.
Andy Holloway
Still waiting for that photo. I really, I really want to see.
Jason Moore
You want to see his eye?
Andy Holloway
I want to see his eye. Yeah.
Mike Wright
I think we all do.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. I mean there's no joke.
Mike Wright
I want to know that he's okay.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, exactly. Mike.
Jason Moore
Trey Harris has now agreed to terms will sign his rookie contract.
Mike Wright
They're flowing in.
Jason Moore
All the second rounders are going to start signing now. And in contest junction with Trey Harris, rookie wide receiver for the Los Angeles Chargers. Mike Williams officially retired from the NFL after eight seasons. He's only 30 years old. Was the seventh overall pick in 2017. I mean it's time I guess. The injuries are just piling up for Mike Williams. He no player jumped higher and landed harder than Mike Williams throughout his entire career. So many like sports center style catches from Mike Williams but he just couldn't stay healthy.
Andy Holloway
He's a special guy. There's not a lot of six, three plus 210 pound wide receivers out there and so I don't know where they're going to find a 6 3,210 pound receiver to replace him. Oh wait, they just signed Trey Harrison. Yeah, baby.
Jason Moore
Jason is the highest in the in the entire office on Trey Harris having.
Andy Holloway
Him in the world.
Jason Moore
He's at 59 in your wide receiver rankings right now.
Andy Holloway
Very bullish.
Jason Moore
Obviously it could be Keenan Allen coming back to Los Angeles too. There's some rumors about Keenan coming home.
Andy Holloway
That'd be fun. That would help if Keenan came though. That would be really hard. I think more on lad.
Jason Moore
That would be bad for Ladd.
Andy Holloway
Bad.
Mike Wright
Make me sad.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, that's pretty bad.
Jason Moore
This Is a sad. It's got a Saturday vibe here, guys.
Mike Wright
The.
Jason Moore
Look at that shirt Al's wearing. That's a Saturday shirt.
Mike Wright
Right back to the main camp.
Andy Holloway
Jason's on my Henley. A couple of these.
Mike Wright
The leisure.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I'm relaxing.
Mike Wright
I'll just say about the Chargers news because everything else is speculation. But as. Whereas we stand right now, Quentin Johnston does need to be paid attention to.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. Yeah.
Jason Moore
And that's our Quentin guy over there.
Mike Wright
The best part of Keenan Allen signing to the Chargers, should that happen, is I could never do that again.
Jason Moore
No. Mike drafted him in the last mock draft and then reminded us again today. If you want to associate Quentin with a person here at the show, Mike's volunteering.
Mike Wright
That's. Someone's got to do it.
Jason Moore
If I.
Andy Holloway
He was on pace for nine touchdowns last year. 9.1.
Jason Moore
He was.
Andy Holloway
Quentin Johnson. Over 100 targets, nine touchdowns. You know, it was very.
Jason Moore
Is that so he missed some games, you're saying?
Andy Holloway
Yes, he did miss.
Mike Wright
It was very sporadic, but the totality of the season was better than you remember.
Jason Moore
It had been funny. If he played a full 17 and you said he's on pace for what he got. That's what I. That's why. That's what I wasn't sure. I didn't remember.
Andy Holloway
If you played a full 17 and I said he was on pace for 9.1, that would be super weird.
Mike Wright
He was at a 23 and a half percent target route run, which is very strong.
Jason Moore
I think you should be a my guy, Mike. That's what I'm hearing.
Mike Wright
I'll put him on the board for you.
Andy Holloway
He should be ignored, but I still don't think he is very good.
Jason Moore
What's the in between of ignored and paid attention to glam Darnell Mooney. Okay.
Mike Wright
You went with the name.
Jason Moore
You went with a person.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
All right. Anthony Richardson is believed to have been recovered and starting to throw again.
Mike Wright
Okay.
Andy Holloway
Dude, that's every quarterback I draft. I want them to be able to throw.
Mike Wright
Goodness gracious.
Jason Moore
Jason is just.
Andy Holloway
I'm here for one reason. Today.
Jason Moore
He unbuttoned the shirt.
Andy Holloway
Mike, don't make me take it off.
Mike Wright
The point of this blurb was we were on reports of we didn't know if Richardson was going to be ready for training camp. And if Richardson's not there to start training camp, that is a huge head start for Daniel Jones.
Jason Moore
Albert Breer believes Stefan Diggs is trending towards playing in week one. This is.
Mike Wright
That's very aggressive.
Jason Moore
That's also very important.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Jason Moore
People need to understand how bad the rest of the depth chart is because Stefan Diggs can soak up targets. If you believe in Drake May in any capacity, you have to believe in Stefan Diggs in some capacity. That's my math equation in New England is it doesn't mean he's a super high draft pick. It just means he's kind of a sneaky draft pick.
Mike Wright
I don't disagree. It's just the injury, like the historical injury of the ACL research is it's a 9 to 12 month recovery to return to a game. The end of August will be nine months. That's what I mean. It would be pretty aggressive.
Jason Moore
It would.
Mike Wright
It's not impossible.
Jason Moore
We saw him running routes a while.
Andy Holloway
Ago, two months ago, and he looked just like Kayshawn Booty who was running right next to him. I will be currently surprised. I think that's very good. Keisha Booty is a very young, athletic wide receiver. And so to be at that stage, I'm a like, I think right now Stefan Diggs is a clear value in the draft. They also have a good opening schedule. We talked about that when we covered their division. But you're talking Raiders and they were.
Jason Moore
By three in week one, aren't they.
Andy Holloway
That they're playing the Raiders.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
So look, Diggs was in our, I think values list. We pulled him when we, we got conflicting reports of his availability. But he's right on that edge. You know, he's not the same Stefan Diggs. You can't put that into your like a top 10 type of wide receiver. But, but he might not be drafted or very close to not drafted in a lot of leagues. And big news get paid T.J. watt. T.J. watt has become the highest non paid quarterback in NFL history. It's the second time that's happened for him. Three year, $123 million extension, 108 million guaranteed.
Mike Wright
I like, I like to imagine that draft year like the first round's almost over and the Steelers like, who do you want to take? I just take JJ's brother.
Jason Moore
I mean, TJ Watt.
Mike Wright
Like, oh, hey, hey, look, the other Watt is awesome.
Jason Moore
Yeah. The, you know, the questions around him was like, are you. He's 30 and is he worth $108 million? Yeah, this is, I mean, he kind of took a little step back last year.
Andy Holloway
Did he?
Jason Moore
Yeah. I mean his sacks went from 19 to 11. I mean that's not like 11 is.
Mike Wright
Great, but it's just giving that much money to a.
Jason Moore
But he was 13, 14, 15, 22, 19 and then it's what you got to do. I mean, they're all in. So it's what he needed and they gave it to him. And that's it for news. So we'll take a break and we'll jump into our divisional breakdown.
Andy Holloway
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Jason Moore
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Andy Holloway
Let's get divisional.
Jason Moore
Into the nfc, NFC south we go yes and we will talk through Tampa Bay and Atlanta and Carolina New Orleans. Look at the players, rookies, coaching changes, how their offenses, defenses have changed, offensive lines. And we'll give our take on how we think this division will play out, which I think again, this is one where you could definitely see it going some different ways. And we'll start with, we'll start with Tampa Bay. I mean, this last year was the second year in a row that the NFC south title was not decided until the literal final week of the season. And it went to Tampa Bay 10 and 7. Now they were, you know, very good for fantasy, like the Baker story, Mike Evans, Godwin while he was healthy, McMillan at times as a spot start, Kate Otten at times, and then Bucky Irving. Like there were lots of fantasy storylines in Tampa Bay. And you know, you can go watch our Halloween show and see Jason dressed up as Laser Mayfield himself. This was a very fun. Go ahead. Busted. Oh, well, that's not the. I gave you the chance, Jay.
Andy Holloway
Laser.
Jason Moore
And now you're busted.
Mike Wright
So what is happening?
Jason Moore
He is. What'd you drink with lunch?
Mike Wright
Seriously?
Andy Holloway
I had an amino energy drink and I'm feeling it.
Jason Moore
I got so much energy. Look, they were 10 and 7, but they were only 3 and 5 and 1 score games. So they weren't one of those teams that like kind of out kicked what it looked like they were supposed to do. They have hit the over on their Vegas win total in five of the last six years. And last year it was seven and a half. This year's nine and a half.
Mike Wright
Okay.
Jason Moore
They have the tenth easiest strength of schedule according to our friend of the show, Warren Sharp and his breakdown of the season. They were number four in points per game, number three in yards per game. They were, I mean Baker was amazing. They had a top five quarterback, they had a top 15 running back in Bucky, with another top 24 in Mr. Rashad White.
Mike Wright
Rashad White made it into the top 24.
Jason Moore
They had a top 12 wide receiver, they had a top 12 tight end. And only the 2012 Patriots can match those numbers. Yeah, Rashad White kind of.
Mike Wright
He did.
Jason Moore
Yeah. He feels like he didn't exist, but he did a little bit. And they are the first team in NFL history to complete 70 plus percent of their passes average 5 plus yards per catch. This was an amazing, amazing offense and that's a big win total, nine and a half for them going into this year. Todd Bowles, I believe he got an extension this off season and it's, it's going to be interesting. They added a very highly touted first round rookie wide receiver to the mix. And then they paid Chris Godwin this off season. So in my opinion, they're one of the more loaded offenses in football.
Andy Holloway
Yes.
Jason Moore
And so, you know, when you talk about the possible outcomes of the season, biggest question maybe being can Baker work his magic again with a third offensive coordinator in the last three years? I mean, the Buccaneers are the. The example of why hiring a defensive head coach can be difficult.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
Because you have a great. We all love Todd Bowles. We all think he's a really good head coach. He had a tough time in New York because it's the Jets. That's why. But offensive coordinator was Dan Canales, then it was Liam Cohen, and now the Grizzler, it's Josh Grizzard. Grizzard, we saw.
Mike Wright
Allegedly. People are saying it. Grizzard. But no, no, thank you.
Jason Moore
No, thank you.
Andy Holloway
We deny your pronunciation.
Jason Moore
Yeah, we have a show to run here. And how you were born, what you're named really irrelevant to us, this team.
Mike Wright
Adding Igbuka is. It's absurd.
Jason Moore
I don't know if I think with the Godwin contract it was even more.
Mike Wright
I don't mean absurd in like, I'm like, as in like this, this, this.
Jason Moore
Triple wide receiver riches.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
Of if I will Igbuka be a week one starter? It might take some time. I know McMillan had, you know, his end of season run, but ceiling wise, he's. McMillan is not Igbuka. And if you're seriously running out those three guys of Evans, Godwin, Igbuka, it will be very, very difficult to stop any sort of passing attack.
Jason Moore
So Baker, let's start there with, you know, you can say all the great things about how the offense performed. You got to change it, O.C. but you have all these weapons. He had eight finishes inside the top five at the position. He was amazing for fantasy players.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, he was 4,000, 540.
Jason Moore
So then it's like, you know, I've said it. I put it on record before. I don't like. I don't like looking at all of his history in averages to determine Baker now in Tampa Bay because I think he's. He is leveled up several levels and it's just different situations, different weapons, but obviously putting up. What was the touchdown total?
Andy Holloway
40.
Jason Moore
Yeah, putting up. Putting up 40 is just, you know, take Baker out of the equation.
Andy Holloway
Just look at average 41, 41 passing touchdowns. Oh, my goodness. I apologize. 41.
Jason Moore
Oh, then I think you can get to 40. Okay. No, but I mean, it was 28.
Andy Holloway
The year before in Tampa, which was his career high.
Jason Moore
Before 40, it was his career high. I know what you're saying, but I think. I think mid-30s is very, very. Like. I'd bet on it.
Andy Holloway
Mid 30. Touchdown.
Jason Moore
Yes.
Andy Holloway
Okay.
Jason Moore
I'd bet on 35 because I.
Andy Holloway
Because he's early 30s, age wise. I. I don't.
Mike Wright
I need a button to hit. I don't even know what button to hit.
Andy Holloway
Here's. Here's the thing you can say, okay, I don't. I don't buy into the early Baker career stuff because you had different wide receivers, different poorly run organizations. That. That stuff is true. However, you know, he's also. He played 89 games before this last year for a number of different teams and offenses and offensive coordinators. And through that time, his touchdown rate was 4.6%, which is basically. Just. Don't just take his history. Take the history of all quarterbacks. That's basically what the NFL does. It's a very normal rate. Will he be above 4.6? Yeah, probably. I mean, he was 4.9% the previous year with, you know, Evans and Godwin and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but he jumped to 7.2% last year. And it is not uncommon for this to happen for quarterbacks throughout a career. To have a year with an outlier touchdown percentage, this is like the easiest regression spot coming. And so I, you know, mid-30s. I'm fine with that. I think he can.
Jason Moore
7.2 is extreme, for sure.
Mike Wright
Yes.
Jason Moore
And 4.9 was a bit low for. I mean, he's had 5.6, 5.3. The truth of the matter is, is I think what I have. I'm pushing back against a little bit, and I'm doing this with a lot of these regression candidates is Baker Mayfield. This was the storyline of last off season. We did this already. We did it. We did the Baker Mayfield regression storyline all off season. Different offensive coordinator. He was over 4,000 yards, and he never done that before. And we got the other side of the coin, is all I'm saying. And so I think it's very reasonable. Like, I don't see anything on this offense. Great offensive line, great running game, great passing game, amazing weapons depth when weapons go down. Baker lost weapons last year and still put up those numbers. Right. Godwin was gone in the middle of the season. So. Okay, so I think that Baker, you know, I don't think he finishes a quarterback three again.
Andy Holloway
No.
Jason Moore
But I don't think he finishes a 10.
Andy Holloway
I think he finishes 10 or lower, personally. And part of that is because we know the Touchdowns will come down. He's not throwing 40 touchdowns this year, so he'd take away five of them. That's still a lot of touchdowns. If he scores 35 passing touchdowns, then he'll be among the league leaders. But that's a big drop in fantasy points. But then it's not just that, it's his rushing. I mean, he had 378 rushing yards, almost like double his career high. His career high before that was 165. And it's not like the attempts changed. He had a year with 54 rushing attempts. He had a year the year prior with 62 rushing attempts, more than he had this last year. But somehow he went from 163 rushing yards to 378. He did not get more athletic. He had a bunch of big runs. It was great, awesome.
Mike Wright
It was really fun.
Andy Holloway
But it just feels like if I had to say, well, who is Baker? How does he run? What can he do on the ground? I'm definitely going to bet with what he's done throughout his career than last year's.
Jason Moore
Well, the year before, he was the quarterback 10 with all the lower numbers.
Andy Holloway
Right.
Jason Moore
So, I mean, I think that's why I have him between 10 and three.
Andy Holloway
I think around. Around 10 is. Is very fair. If he plays 17 games, he should be a quarterback one. But I, you know, right now he's being drafted quarterback seven. Yeah.
Jason Moore
I mean, perfect.
Mike Wright
Yeah, I think it's a. I think it's an okay fair shot. It's just the. Where I would push on the regression is we. I won't. Has Baker seemingly really improved? Or you could even say just actually he's returning the promise of what he was, which was the number one overall pick. And then he. And then he overcame the circumstances. So we're seeing the real Baker, but we see hall of Fame quarterbacks have these types of seasons where they're throwing up in the, you know, the seven percentile per attempt for touchdown rate, and then they drop at least A. And these are guys who will go right into the hall of Fame.
Jason Moore
The best thing we can do, though, is approach it from the perspective on all these quarterbacks of what are your highest odds of getting success at the position? Yes, because there's variance for everybody, but.
Andy Holloway
Not just highest odds of general success, but you have to add with that highest outcome of success, like, can they be a league winner, not just can they beat quarterbacks?
Jason Moore
You know, he was an a in consistency 64% of the time above 17 points per game, week in and week out. He was a valuable fantasy player and I do believe that's what he will be again this year.
Mike Wright
Okay.
Jason Moore
But look, it's up what that regression looks like touchdown wise. All we've said is what they've added this off season.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
You're taking a Baker Mayfield that didn't have Ibuka or Godwin.
Andy Holloway
Would you rather have Baker in the sixth or Jordan Love in the ninth?
Jason Moore
I'll take Baker. Yeah. I feel very, very safe with Baker. I think he's shown us the last two years and a great schedule, great offensive line. So I feel very safe with baker in the six. I think it's perfect. Price QB7 and I'm not intimidated by offensive coordinator changes.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. I mean, that is normal for Baker.
Jason Moore
We like Bucky, but Bucky is the RB8 off the board right now. I feel like we could get stuck in Tampa Bay arguments for the rest of the show because, you know, I'm a big Bucky fan.
Mike Wright
I think we're all fans.
Andy Holloway
He just.
Mike Wright
He is. His draft price is a little scary. Not. Not that we don't have him ranked very close. Like a quick look, it seems like I have him at 9, Andy is at 9, Jason's at 11. So we're all just as a group a little bit behind consensus. And he is.
Jason Moore
He's in a tier right now on our UDK where he shares the tier with Chase Brown, Josh Jacobs, Kyron Williams and Jonathan Taylor. But he's the highest, most expensive.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
Which is why it becomes a challenge for all of us to draft him.
Mike Wright
That's a perfect snapshot of his situation.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. Clip that.
Jason Moore
There you go.
Andy Holloway
So that's good work.
Jason Moore
Rashad White pretty much being ignored in drafts. 10th round pick.
Mike Wright
You shouldn't.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. In double digit rounds. I mean, Rashad White is not their future. He's not. He's probably going to be gone after this.
Mike Wright
It's going to feel so gross to draft him.
Andy Holloway
But this is a guy who is absolutely involved. Had over 200 opportunities last year. We brought it up. He was the running back, 24. He's not great, but he is.
Jason Moore
He's the kind of player that there's a dude in our league that just drafts the nastiest dudes in the late rounds and they always provide value. And Rashad White fits right in there.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
How do you see the wide receiver room panning out? Jason with Mike Evans right now, a late third, Godwin in the sixth. Igbuka and McMillan share an 11th round. You've got Kate Otten, who did have A really necessary portion of the year.
Mike Wright
He's only a Mr. Necessary though, so.
Jason Moore
But how do you see the wideouts?
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I mean, Chris Godwin was essentially the alpha before he went down to injury, but I've still got Mike Evans clearly ahead. I want more information on Chris Godwin coming back. Ironically, my target share for both of those guys is identical.
Jason Moore
For who?
Andy Holloway
For Evans and Godwin.
Jason Moore
Okay.
Andy Holloway
But the valuable targets, if they're both going to get 130 targets, they're going to be very different for Chris Godwin than for Mike Evans. I'd rather have the double digit touchdown upside of Evans, the downfield, you know, big explosive plays.
Jason Moore
We have Godwin, he's been hurt before and his return from injury was really depressing. But then I feel like we're getting that washed, that scare washed away by the contract this offseason.
Mike Wright
And his adp. His ADP is. The risk is already in there. It's six round in the sixth round.
Andy Holloway
I struggle six rounds. So who are you taking, Baker or Godwin?
Jason Moore
I mean, I don't know.
Andy Holloway
It's a trick question. Jameson Williams is in the sixth.
Mike Wright
Yeah, I personally struggle with the Evans versus Godwin because it was not a. They're going back and forth in those. You know, when Chris Godwin was doing what he was doing at the beginning of the year, the first seven weeks Chris Godwin had put up, you know, he's averaging nine targets, seven. So seven receptions and 82 yards per week. That is what Chris Godwin was averaging in that exact same time period. I'll cut one game out because Mike Evans got hurt also, you know, in week seven. But he was averaging four for 51. Like, this was not A. We're, we're one A one B. It was the Chris Godwin show.
Jason Moore
But if you just think about it, I mean, all the years that Godwin's been a part of Tampa Bay. Mike Evans, wide receiver 8 12, 10 8.
Andy Holloway
Sure.
Jason Moore
It doesn't matter how it happens, but.
Mike Wright
It'S a, it's a very large gap.
Jason Moore
For a small time period of their.
Mike Wright
No, no, no.
Andy Holloway
They're adp.
Jason Moore
Oh, yeah, yeah. I thought you were saying a large gap between their production when they were playing together.
Mike Wright
I mean, both, both of those things. But he.
Andy Holloway
Mike, if you had to bet your house and everything you saved for your children's future college, this is on Mike Evans getting 1,000 yards or not getting 1,000 yards this season.
Mike Wright
Of course I'll take the thousand yards. But is that like. Which he, he barely surpassed? You're making me talk bad about Mike Evans right now and I don't appreciate that.
Andy Holloway
My point is you shouldn't. He's been great. This team manufactured him the thousand yards to keep that streak going. If you remember that at the end of the season he missed a handful of games and it seemed like he was not going to be able to get there.
Jason Moore
And they're like, I don't think I'm drafting Godwin.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, are you?
Jason Moore
I don't think I'm taking him in the sixth round. I'm fine with Evans, but you've got Igbuka. That represents a huge portion of the future. And Godwin could start really slow and maybe not have. I mean, Liam Cohen's not there. Liam Cohen was. The difference between Canalis and Liam Cohen was that magic beginning for Godwin. So I don't know.
Mike Wright
That is, that is very nervous. And we have like his particular injury. We have seen players recently poor, like performing poorly right when they came back from it. And we've seen players who get that, that same injury and they're just fine. So it's.
Jason Moore
Do you care more about your family or Mike Evans?
Mike Wright
Oh, Mike Evans. Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Makes sense.
Jason Moore
They start against Atlanta, in Atlanta and they're favored in week one and then at Houston, then the jets, then Philadelphia. So should be, should be an interesting reroll of this offense again. And the offensive line ranked sixth. They are going to be without Tristan Wurfs for a little while. Right?
Mike Wright
They are.
Jason Moore
So that's worth mentioning. Atlanta.
Andy Holloway
I can't believe you let that one go.
Mike Wright
The way that this, this podcast is.
Andy Holloway
Going on a Saturday. Come on.
Jason Moore
Jason is controlling the vibe of this podcast very carefully. Buttons. If he could unbutton anymore, he would.
Andy Holloway
You're lucky I didn't wear a full button up shirt today.
Jason Moore
I'm surprised he doesn't grab scissors and start cutting that thing off. Atlanta was eight and nine. We're going to move on to Atlanta. They were seven and six and one score games. They have not had a.500 or better season since 2017 and yet they are.
Andy Holloway
Projected for seven and a half games.
Jason Moore
Yeah, they're not projected for. I mean last year they were projected for nine and a half. And the Kirk Cousins experiment, well, that, that was a bad experiment. It didn't work. His mobility after the injury, then he, I mean, I mean he had the Achilles recovery, but then he had a shoulder injury and he played even worse after that. In fact, he started much better. They were 6 and 3 to start the year. Then he collapsed, was throwing interceptions all over the place. Passing yards went down. It looked like he couldn't throw at all. And there were there, there have been some resurgent rumors by the way of Cousins to Cleveland yet again.
Mike Wright
Oh my gosh.
Jason Moore
Which was my original prediction.
Mike Wright
It was.
Jason Moore
But I had all but given up on it because they drafted 16 quarterbacks in the draft. But you know, Michael Pennix Jr. Took over. They averaged double the points per game when he was under center over the last three weeks. They didn't win those games. They were one and two. But.
Andy Holloway
And as a reminder, because I know a lot, you know, we're going to talk about those, those three games with how it related to Drake, London and Penix and Bijon because that's the future. But those three games were against three of the worst defenses in the league, the Giants and the Panthers. The Washington commanders were in there. They're, you know, average.
Jason Moore
Their strength of schedule according to Warren Sharp is the fourth easiest in football and yet just seven and a half wins in a softer division. So that is at least a little bit of a nod to all the doubts and questions that we're going to bring up here when talking about Atlanta, which, you know, it begins with the quarterback. This team didn't perform on offense the way they wanted to last year. Bottom third. Zach Robinson came over with a lot of fanfare from the McVeigh universe and kind of gets us a slight pass with just what happened with Kirk Cousins. But you know, yeah, I will judge.
Mike Wright
Him harshly after this season.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Mike Wright
And you're going to have a top 10 quarterback pick. You better put a show on.
Jason Moore
Yeah. The pick was, I mean when the pick happened of Michael Penix, it was ridiculed everywhere. But it seems like maybe. I know we've talked about this. You can't like really fix a mistake with a mistake.
Mike Wright
But.
Jason Moore
But it wasn't an insurance policy that, that they needed quickly. They have a top 10 offensive line ranking on PFF heading into the new year.
Andy Holloway
That's great for Bijon.
Jason Moore
Yeah. Bijon is. He's a player that we're not going to have to.
Mike Wright
We can't let Jason talk about Bijon anymore.
Jason Moore
We don't have to discuss at length. I mean he. From week six on he scored 17 plus fantasy points in all but one game. It was outrageous. He was everything that you hoped he could be. And he belongs at the tippy top of your draft. If you want to take him one on one, that's fine. That's totally fine. Good offensive line peak of his career for running backs.
Andy Holloway
He's a game script proof back. If they get down, they throw them the ball. If they're up, they run the clock out. So you love that. One of the true workhorses. An a inconsistency. There's literally nothing to criticize with with.
Jason Moore
Bijan, but when it comes to pass catchers, it's kind of like Drake London. And then what do you have like is, is Kyle Pitts even worth bringing up on a fantasy football show anymore? Darnell Mooney kind of slots in as what he is. Right. Like he's a wide receiver too. That's probably better than his draft spot.
Mike Wright
Yeah, he's in the 10th round. Wide receiver 49. He'll, he'll outproduce that.
Jason Moore
Michael Pendix only completed 55% of his passes. You know, they've talked a lot about not changing him. If you've seen recent comments from the offensive staff, it's like we like the things that make Michael Pennock special, which is taking chances. Oh, that dude airs it out, airing it out. So that's going to come with some good and bad. Also their defense is going to dictate a lot of things. They were not a great defense. So you know, where, where are you from the fantasy perspective on this team? Like is Drake London? He's, he's drafted so highly, he's a top of the second round pick. But I haven't taken him in a mock and I don't know if you can, I mean, can you talk me into why I need to be just ultra confident in Drake London regardless of how much Michael Pennix Jr. We've seen?
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I mean he is. The reason you should be ultra confident is like you said, their defense is not good and he has no other wide receivers to really truly compete with. Darnell Mooney's on the other side. Great. But he proved that he could be kind of an alpha wide receiver. He was the wide receiver 6 last year in fantasy and that was with the old busted version of Kirk Cousins. So let's say Michael Pennix pretty juiced.
Mike Wright
From that Carolina game in week 18.
Andy Holloway
Sure. He had an incredible one 8710 for.
Mike Wright
187 and two 10 for 35 points. That'll. That'll jump you up a couple spots.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. But the counterargument to that is that was one of the Michael Pinnock's games. So. Oh, you're going. Oh, okay. So Michael Pennix is willing to just throw him the ball a ton. Even before that. You're on target, taking that crazy game out. Which is dumb to just take it. Take out his best game. But without his best game, he's still on 100 target pace. You know, 1100 yards target or catch reception. Sorry. 147.
Mike Wright
You're saying he's 100 target pace. You should not draft him.
Andy Holloway
So he's a young in his prime alpha wide receiver with no competition for targets and a bad defense. Like I'm all about that.
Jason Moore
Kyle Pitts is yards per outrun over the last four years have dropped every single year. He. He had 38% of his snaps in line three times his rate from 2023. He just. It's like the air's let out of the balloon at this point.
Andy Holloway
It's hard to talk about the oldest 24 year old on planet Earth.
Jason Moore
He's Greg Odin.
Andy Holloway
Ah, that's a good comp.
Mike Wright
He feels he like and like Greg Odin, he's just. He's on his way to being just a trivia question.
Jason Moore
Like one of the biggest busts in a long time. Is there any hope for him this season? I mean you just literally talked about them having nobody but Drake London.
Andy Holloway
There is always hope.
Mike Wright
I mean that's because he's 24. Because that's how he gets you.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, he's 24. He was the fourth pick in the NFL.
Mike Wright
Like I got this candy bottle athlete.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Let me ask you this. Is he in a contract year?
Mike Wright
I don't know. Is he? I think so.
Jason Moore
He is. Unfortunately.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
There he is.
Mike Wright
All right, baby.
Andy Holloway
He's so now he's. That motivation is there.
Jason Moore
This is a fool me couldn't topple times situation, which is the. I tried before times. I tried to figure out what the phrase is. It's quintuple. We'll take a break. We'll talk Panthers. Oh, by the way, they start the season against Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Carolina and Washington. Are you surprised that their win totals at 7 1/2?
Andy Holloway
No.
Jason Moore
Would you have thought it had been higher even in this division?
Andy Holloway
No. I will say this. When I first looked at the Falcons here, I saw their win total at nine and a half and I was blown away. But I was looking at last year's win total projection.
Jason Moore
Because you expected a smaller.
Andy Holloway
Yes, because I expected it as of right.
Jason Moore
They're not favored in a game until week eight.
Mike Wright
Yeah, that'll. That'll dictate some things.
Jason Moore
See, that's why you need Cousins gone. I'm serious. You can't have him on that bench. Yeah, this is too.
Andy Holloway
When they start losing games.
Jason Moore
Yeah, he's too experienced of a player. And like, look, if those numbers are accurate, if it was a lot of shoulder issue situation, I mean, weeks one through nine, they were playing well. They were scoring 25 points a game.
Andy Holloway
Didn't he, didn't he have a game where he threw 500 yards and like five touchdowns?
Mike Wright
There was a primetime game.
Jason Moore
That was that overtime game he won. So, like, you can't have him there. If you want Michael Penix to be your future, I don't know if. Kyle, Kyle, do you want Cousins going? Are you on the mic? I'm just sad. Okay. You're sad for Kirk. Just sad in general. Just sad as a Falcons fan.
Andy Holloway
72% completion percentage, four touchdowns, 509 passing yards. And that was against Tampa Bay.
Jason Moore
Yeah. Where they start the year. So we'll take a break. Be right back. What's up, Fuc Clam? What are some things you love to do outdoors in the summer? Because the long days of summer are here. That means more sun, more light, more time to be outside for us in Arizona, more time in that pool. And the last thing you want to do is be stuck inside spending hours cooking. And that is where our friends at Factor come in. Factors Chef crafted dietitian approved meals arrive fresh and ready to eat, taking the hassle out of eating well with 45 weekly menu options. You can pick gourmet meals that fit your summer gains and goals. You can choose from options like calorie, smart, protein plus, keto and more. I love the protein plus. In fact, we got a box the other day. My son stole half of them and look, all the meals are good. There's not even like just, you know, you don't have to pick and choose one or two meals that you like. They are all excellent. They are easy to make and they make it easy for me to stick to my goals. You can get started@Factor Meals.com Footballers 50 off and use the code Footballers50OFF to get 50% off plus free shipping on your first box. That is the code. Footballers 50 off@factormeals.com Footballers 50 off for 50% off plus free shipping. FactorMeals.com Footballers 50 off hilarious comedy is.
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Jason Moore
Well, I think a lot of people would have expected us to not be talking about Carolina yet because Carolina was one of the worst teams in football.
Andy Holloway
But they got to play in a division with the Saints.
Jason Moore
But here they are. They're. They're the third team we get to talk about. Five and 12 Carolina last year, the win total, five and a half. So they, they were right on it.
Mike Wright
You see that, that point differential from last year, what was it? Negative 193.
Jason Moore
Here's their last seven years win total seven, five. This is how many they accomplished. Not Vegas totals 755-5725.
Andy Holloway
So Kyle, as a Falcons fan, you got to feel much better.
Jason Moore
Yeah. Do you feel good now, Kyle? It's still a terrible division.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
Yeah. They also allowed the most points of all time. 534. It was a dream to play against the Carolina Panthers defense because they give up the most points.
Andy Holloway
You talk about the defense that ranked 32nd in points allowed, 32nd in yards. 32nd and rushing yards. 32nd and EPA. And 32nd and EPA per rush.
Jason Moore
I am, yeah, they are. They are projected for one more win this year. Six and a half.
Mike Wright
I am actually really excited for this team because this is the, this is exactly, not exactly. Let me, let me phrase it better. Their defenses is going to stink. Like maybe they're not dead last again historically allowing the most points of all time. But they will not be able to turn that thing around.
Jason Moore
Not to the, not to an upper echelon defense for sure.
Mike Wright
Meanwhile, after Bryce Young came back from the benching, whatever happened, Bryce Young was so, so much better as a player and as a quarterback. From week 12 on, Carolina averaged 25 points per game. That's 12th in the NFL. Bryce was seventh in fantasy points per drop back. He was second in quarterback scrambles. He was like he looked like a completely different person. And then their first pick is ted A. Rowan McMillan who is like, you can't be, you know, Jamar chase excited about McMillan, but I think that he'll be a true number one in the NFL. And that lets their last year's first round pick, Xavier Leggette go be just a number two wide receiver.
Jason Moore
Which is really what he is.
Mike Wright
Yeah. Which is really what he is. And the canal is offense is going to be able to run, no problem. So I like you give this team a better improving offense with a horrifically Bad defense.
Jason Moore
This is a fantasy.
Mike Wright
This is the combination where you find some just stinky treasures for fantasy football. You got to wash them off, man.
Andy Holloway
I get it. I know what you're saying.
Mike Wright
It's not coming out pristine.
Jason Moore
Name the Chuba.
Mike Wright
Is it treasure Juba is interesting.
Jason Moore
He's a fourth round, late fourth, maybe early fifth. Because nobody wants to stink of Carolina.
Mike Wright
Like, I like McMillan. I think that he. Where he is going in drafts is late six is a place that I'm happy to draft a top 10 NFL draft talent. And I think that Bryce Young really could surprise and not jump into a top five situation, but jump into a place where we're all making the jokes in week six. Like, oh, man, Bryce Young, he's still doing it. Can we count on him? And then by the end of the year, we're like, look at Bryce Young, Jason.
Jason Moore
We got to get Mike a third my guy. Because we already know Bryce Young and Quentin Johnston are his first two.
Andy Holloway
So we'll find the third.
Jason Moore
We'll find the third one soon.
Mike Wright
Probably from the next dowel is on this team.
Jason Moore
Dowdles on this team. Yeah. You would never do two Panthers as a my guy. I'm sorry, My mistake. I don't mind having options that I like because I think this is an easy situation to root for. I love Dave Canales. I'd love to see Bryce Young kind of save his career, which he started to do.
Mike Wright
I'm saying, like, often we'll have a team like this and the divisional breakdown be like, this team stinks. They're going to stink again. Like, I think we got a chance here with Carolina.
Jason Moore
Yeah, I. I'm having Kyle look up some numbers because I'm trying to find a really easy way to communicate the level of turnover that happens at the NFL level year over year and quantify it in a simple way. We're kind of looking into some ways to do that, but one of the stats that jumped out was like 23% of NFL teams on a yearly basis improve their win total by three or more games. So a quarter of the league improves their win total by three or more games. That's an interesting reality in the NFL where you can't come in here and just say what was will be. Yeah, there's so much parity at the NFL.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, that's what I was going to say. It's the easily among all major sports has the most parity. You always see teams go from last place to first place in a division every single year. This is a very soft division. The Buccaneers look kind of entrenched at the top. They've been there for a while and they clearly have the best roster. But the next three, they're all pretty soft.
Mike Wright
Even Leggette is just. He is completely abandoned.
Jason Moore
Correct? Yeah. I mean, and look, I love Chuba. I really do. He defied the odds, right? You don't like running backs on teams that don't win games, and yet you like this running back on a team that doesn't win games. And then they went and gave him a contract, and then we know that, you know, Jonathan Brooks is gone for the year and like, Chuba's workload is going to be there, you know. Will Doubtle spell him? Yeah, but so did other players last year. I think the workload for him, I mean, this was the RB7 for a stretch from weeks three to 16 last year. He can handle a ton of opportunities. I think he passes the eye test. When I watch him, like, on the ground.
Mike Wright
He does On.
Jason Moore
On the ground, yes.
Mike Wright
His work in the receiving game leaves a lot to be desired. And that would be the. The. If I had any hesitancy drafting Chuba, where he is going, that would be it. I'm not going to proclaim that Rico Dowdle is just so much better at that part of the game than him, but Chuba was quite bad at it this past year.
Jason Moore
Jason ceiling for Tetterow and McMillan fantasy finish wise if things go right, Ceiling.
Andy Holloway
If everything goes right. And he's the alpha one would be like wide receiver 15, and he's at.
Jason Moore
34 in drafts right now.
Andy Holloway
I think the person that's going to play a spoiler for Tettero, McMillan as well as Xavier Ladron. No. Yeah. Adam, wake up. No, look, Adam Thielen was injured for part of the year. Bryce Young was benched for part of the year. When those two were back together on the field, I don't know if you guys even remember because, you know, it felt like the Panthers were irrelevant. You kind of moved on. But the last seven games they played together, Adam Thielen was on pace for 97 receptions, 1228 yards and 10 touchdowns. He was averaging 13 1/2 fantasy points per game. I know.
Jason Moore
He's. I have him in dice.
Mike Wright
No, sure. I pick me up. He will not do that.
Jason Moore
Anything, literally anything you want.
Andy Holloway
Okay.
Jason Moore
I don't care.
Mike Wright
It will you.
Andy Holloway
You agreed. If I can make you an official offer, you will. You will accept it.
Jason Moore
It can't involve any of your players.
Andy Holloway
Okay.
Mike Wright
Deal.
Jason Moore
All right.
Mike Wright
The he was it. Like Leggette wasn't ready to be a number one. I don't know that Leggett will ever be ready to be number one. But I guess if anyone's going to mess it up for McMillan, it would be Thielen. But I don't think Thielen's gonna mess it up for him.
Jason Moore
At Jacksonville in week one, at Arizona in week two, then Atlanta than New England. So that's the start. And we still have a team to talk about in this division.
Mike Wright
All right.
Andy Holloway
I expect you to be a man of your word.
Jason Moore
Andy, did you send something?
Andy Holloway
Yes, Offer has been made.
Jason Moore
Okay, Mike, introduce our next team while I go take a look at this suite. Adam Thielenoff. Okay.
Andy Holloway
Yep. Be a man of your word. You agreed if it did not include one of my players, what is it? You would accept the trade?
Jason Moore
It's a dollar of fabs.
Andy Holloway
I mean, in front of hundreds of thousands of people.
Jason Moore
I didn't think about the fab.
Mike Wright
I'll be honest with you.
Andy Holloway
Agreed to a trade. Are you one of those guys that backs out of trades that you agree to?
Jason Moore
Not with normal people, but with you, I think I might.
Andy Holloway
Oh, my goodness. Wow. Get them, Foot Clan.
Mike Wright
You could have got him, Jay. You could have sent over.
Jason Moore
I'll make you a counter. We'll get this.
Mike Wright
Okay. It's the New Orleans Saints. Last year they were five and 12. Last year their projected win total was seven and a half. And remember those first two weeks with Derek Carr and Rashid Shahid? And it was. Holy crap. Look at what.
Jason Moore
Oh, it was so exciting.
Mike Wright
Look at what this team is doing.
Jason Moore
Jason was going to have to shave his head.
Mike Wright
Yeah, yeah, we had. We had the shave o head meter. We had a beat down of the Dallas Cowboys in week two and then they lost seven straight games after that.
Jason Moore
Yeah, it was a five and 12 season that just turned sour quickly. And now Derek Carr is gone. Now what's incredible is, you know, they had a seven and a half win total last year. This year it's at five and a half and that's with the third easiest schedule on the books, according to Warren Sharp. It's a time of change for New Orleans. A time of, they hope, rebirth and rebuilding and a new quarterback and a new head coach, Kellen Moore taking over, who's a, you know, been very good on the offensive side. Something that they weren't last year. But rebirth does not normally come alongside like Brandon Cooks and Alvin Camara.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Jason Moore
Aged veterans.
Mike Wright
Remember when I was talking about the Panthers of like, we might come on here and just dunk on a team. I mean, it is hard to be operating.
Jason Moore
He has up the offer to two.
Andy Holloway
Fab so far I doubled my off. I doubled an offer that you already said you would accept.
Jason Moore
20, 28. Third. That's what I'm looking for. The last possible, worst possible pick. You can trade. I just, I know I might need to start him. So I'm not.
Andy Holloway
You might want the Fab to grab players and later in the year you're going to regret having not taken.
Jason Moore
I'm not taking off season fab though. You only get. You only have off season fab right now. I need in season fab. We'll talk about it. I mean, I'm still a man of my word. If they take it for one fab at any point in the future.
Andy Holloway
Is that true?
Jason Moore
I don't know. I don't know if it's true or not. Well, the Saints. The Saints defense was not good. They gave up the most rushing yards that they've ever given up since the year I was born, 1984. So start your running backs against the Saints was the story last year. It's going to be a whole new scheme and there's going to be a whole lot of questions. Like Chris Olave has come up in so many mock drafts because he's one of the few players on the Saints that you can talk about with any sort of potential fantasy outcome. But it's going to become reliant on a new quarterback. Tyler Schuck, most likely rookie, second round quarterback.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
Mike Wright
I mean, fill it out.
Andy Holloway
Doctor.
Jason Moore
Dr. Shuck.
Mike Wright
What?
Andy Holloway
He went to school. He better be a doctor. Six years of school. Oh, six years of college.
Mike Wright
Is this a Tommy boy joke?
Andy Holloway
Basically, yeah.
Jason Moore
Is this a Tommy.
Andy Holloway
I mean, if he's not a doctor or a lawyer, he's got to have a master's, right? I mean, two years at Oregon.
Jason Moore
Doctor.
Andy Holloway
Texas Tech.
Jason Moore
Dr. Shuck.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, Dr. Shuck.
Mike Wright
Okay, well, the quarterback situation is either Dr. Shuck or it's Spencer Rattler.
Andy Holloway
So it's Dr. Shuck because we see that.
Mike Wright
I mean this like there is.
Andy Holloway
So I'm going to be honest, I'll put myself out there. It is very, very rare for a player to go the path of Tyler Schuck and succeed. Almost impossible. I wanted to. Yeah, exactly, exactly. Brandon Wheaton tried to do it. That's like the best comp we're talking about, Brandon.
Jason Moore
To be fair, not a lot of people try to do it.
Andy Holloway
That is true. Because when you're good, you come out of college and you get drafted by the NFL, you don't stay there forever. He was injured a lot, and I went into the scouting process and I will admit I don't believe I am the best scout of quarterbacks.
Mike Wright
He has a master's degree.
Andy Holloway
Two of them, thank goodness.
Jason Moore
Oh, no. Two regular degrees and a master's.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. He just kept going.
Jason Moore
He's piling it up.
Mike Wright
He was really working on that backup plan.
Andy Holloway
I wanted to really hate him. I like Tyler Schuck. I think the dude can play. Coming in with experience lately in the NFL has worked. You know, you had a couple of these players, like Jaden Daniels was one of those guys who, wow, he was in college forever. You know, he was throwing passes to Brandon Iuk back at, you know, asu. And it turns out a lot of the time to develop was good for him. And I think Tyler Schuck could surprise. So when we're talking about what if.
Mike Wright
I give you this statistic, though, that since 2014, we have 24 day two quarterbacks selected and per our research, we have three of note for fantasy football. Jalen Hurts, obviously, the smashing success, and that is Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. No, I mean, the odds are there are so many things against. If you just look at, like data points of success and if we just want to be completely spreadsheet warriors, which a lot of times I'm happy to be, just that there's no chance like the. It's like a 90% against Tyler Schuck working. But if Tyler Schuck is just good, if he's actually good, he was injured every single one of those years. There's a reason he never really got the opportunity to play a full season in college until year six.
Jason Moore
If you're great, if you're kind of good, this is the worst situation you could be in. Bottom third, offensive line, lack of trustworthy, you know, past catchers, because I don't put Olave in the trustworthy category right now. And a running game that you really aren't sure what you're going to get out of it because you got a tough offensive line. Like, I. I just struggle to see how this season goes different than we expect.
Mike Wright
Are you not feeling good about Alvin Camara, RB16.
Jason Moore
Alvin Camara has proven that he can kind of just catch a million as long as he's on the field, which he will be. He just accumulates fantasy points, albeit slowly with small chunks and half a point per reception or whatever the case may be. So I'm fine with Camara especially love him in full PPRs 4th round pick and full PPR leagues. I can deal with that. And look, if you have me bet on a wide receiver, it's going to be Olave, but that doesn't mean that it's impossible for Rashid Jahid to have a better fantasy season than Olave. For Olave to get knocked out due to injury. Like it's just we're at this point now with Olave that you're like all the peripherals are not exciting for him and then you've got the injuries and so you've just the shine is off. Is it being discounted enough in the price? I don't know. I don't know if the wide receiver 26 off the board is enough of a discount to make me feel like like Mike, you almost took him in one round of our mock.
Mike Wright
I did.
Jason Moore
And you waited till the next round to take him. Oh you remember that? Yeah. You were going to think you thought about taking him. You didn't take him. He came back to you. Like I think that will be a lot a lobby in a lot of drafts and if he, if he slips.
Andy Holloway
Was that the pick you regretted at the end?
Mike Wright
It just because of my particular build of that DeAndre Swift went a couple of picks after and it was like oh man, this team really could have.
Jason Moore
Used Is there any chance Juwan Johnson is a sneaky player this year because they of the question mark.
Mike Wright
I am so happy that you brought it up.
Jason Moore
Is that your third?
Mike Wright
My guy and I didn't have.
Andy Holloway
There it is. There it is.
Jason Moore
Young Quentin Johnson here.
Andy Holloway
Like your stats.
Mike Wright
Let's have a fun thing to talk about for the New Orleans Saints try so Kellen Moore has taken over for this team. He. He is an offensive coach. Joanne Johnson, if you don't know who he is, he is the tight end for the New Orleans Saints who just signed a three year $30 million their deal in the off season. So he's not a nobody. He's also had some, you know, stints where he was a real startable fantasy tight end. But Kellen Moore is in. Kellen Moore's offense has often given us just goodness from the slot position. Now it's, it's an embarrassing name of riches when you list it off of like hey devonte Smith moves into the slot. He's. He got five touchdowns in that area, those fourth most in the NFL from the slot. You had Keenan Allen average the most slot receptions per game. You had CD Lamb lead the NFL and slot receiving yard. So obviously Juwan Johnson's not those guys, but he led the team in slot routes and slot receptions last year. And we have gone over who are the wide receivers here, like Rasheed and Olave should be outside wide receivers. There's a chance that Juwan Johnson plays a lot in this.
Jason Moore
Every bad team gets the football, you know, like get offensive possessions and, you know, I just threw it out there as like a deep sleeper.
Mike Wright
Yeah, you know, I love me some Juwan Johnson.
Jason Moore
You've always believed they play Arizona in week one, likely with a rookie under center than San Francisco, Seattle and Buffalo. Seattle and Buffalo on the road. Yeah, that's a rough start, man. That's a rough, rough start. But we expect that from New Orleans this year. So here we are at the end of the breakdown show trying to predict the division in order. What do you got for me? Do you want me to go first? I mean, do you guys want to go.
Mike Wright
I can start it because I know what mine is. I'm going Tampa Bay at the top. I just think they are the best team. Then we're going to go Carolina Panthers second. I'm going to put the Falcons in third and I will put the Saints at the bottom.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I hate what I'm going to say because I want something to be different, but it does to me feel really obvious what happened last year.
Mike Wright
He's going to crush it up and throw it up in the air and just bathe in that chalk.
Andy Holloway
Tampa Bay will finish first in this division. I think the next best team is the Falcons, followed by Carolina and New Orleans. Yes.
Jason Moore
Yeah, I'm with you.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. I mean, it's, it's, it's as chalky as it gets. But sometimes I feel like there's a reason.
Mike Wright
Of all the divisions we have talked about yet so far though, this is the one. We can come back and be like, whoops, definitely.
Jason Moore
I mean, look, two straight years. Two straight years. They didn't settle it until the week 18.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Jason Moore
So.
Mike Wright
And they have done this. I know Tampa Bay's like, since the Brady trade, like, they've kind of figured some things out. But before that, like this division would just flip flop. Who would win?
Jason Moore
Atlanta is the, is the surprise division winner for me. I mean, that would be the one because I think they have enough personnel. They did enough on the defensive side of the football. If Michael Pinnix, if Pinnix is really good, they got the pieces. Bijan's an elite player, good offensive coordinator. That's the surprise division winner. And I think that that could happen but you know, it's hard not to like the stability of Tampa. So we've got upcoming NFC east and west shows, another mock draft. We got ice and fire coming up soon, which means August is almost here. We got ranking shows, we got the ultimate draft kit@ultimate draft kit.com and the community@jointhefoot.com and we would love you to be part of that community here as we go into what is this year 111111 of the fantasy Footballers Podcast. So thank you for tuning in. We love you. Shout out to the doosers back there. I love one of you two. You guys can fight over it. Catch you next time.
Mike Wright
Goodbye.
Andy Holloway
Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on on jointhefoot.com and follow us on TwitterFFballers.
Jason Moore
Now is your time to get into a new Dr. Horton home by taking advantage of its national red tag sales event going on right now through July 20th. Stop by any of its participating communities and find select red tag homes at incredible pricing. So whether you're buying your first home or looking for an upgrade, you don't want to miss the red tag sales event going on right now. Discover the Dr. Horton Difference at Dr. Horton.com Dr. Horton, America's Builder and Equal Housing Opportunity Builder.
Mike Wright
The McDonald's Snack Wrap is back. You brought it back.
Jason Moore
Ranch snack wrap.
Mike Wright
Spicy snack wrap.
Andy Holloway
You broke the Internet for a snack?
Mike Wright
Snack wrap is back.
Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - NFC South Breakdown + Stinky Treasures (7/19/2025)
Release Date: July 19, 2025
The Fantasy Footballers trio—Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike “The Fantasy Hitman” Wright—delve deep into the intricacies of the NFC South in this episode, offering expert analysis, player updates, and strategic fantasy football advice. This comprehensive breakdown covers team dynamics, player performances, and the latest news affecting fantasy lineups, ensuring listeners are well-equipped for the upcoming season.
The episode kicks off with the hosts engaging in light-hearted banter, setting an energetic and informal tone. They briefly touch upon personal anecdotes and household humor before transitioning into the main content focused on the NFC South.
Key Discussion Points:
Legal Outcome: Rashi Rice, following a multi-car crash in Dallas during the 2024 offseason, has been sentenced to five years probation and 30 days of jail time, which may be served anytime within his probation period (07:21).
Fantasy Suspension Prediction: Based on the severity of the incident and league policies, the hosts anticipate Rice facing a suspension ranging from two to six games. Jason Moore states, “everything I'm seeing ... four games is right in that sweet spot” (07:08).
Draft Strategy Impact: With Rice potentially missing significant games, Andy suggests dropping him to the fourth round, emphasizing the increased risk. “It's going to be a very risky pick,” he warns (11:35).
Notable Quote:
Jason Moore (07:08): “I took four games away from Rashi Rice. ... it looks like four games is right in that sweet spot of what we can expect.”
Najee Harris on NFI:
Trey Harris Signed:
Mike Williams' Retirement:
Jordan Addison's Suspension:
Anthony Richardson's Recovery:
Najee Harris on Injuries:
Notable Quote:
Jason Moore (12:26): “He pleaded guilty on a wet reckless charge. ... Jordan Addison's likely to miss as a suspension.”
Offensive Strengths:
Quarterback Performance: Baker Mayfield has been a standout, finishing last season with impressive stats and a high touchdown rate. Andy notes, “mid-30s touchdowns” is a realistic projection for Mayfield this year (28:00).
Key Players: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and rookie additions like Trey Harris bolster the Buccaneers' receiving corps. The trio discusses the depth and target distribution, emphasizing the value of Evans’ consistent performance.
Coaching Stability:
Fantasy Implications:
Notable Quote:
Andy Holloway (28:00): “If he scores 35 passing touchdowns, then he'll be among the league leaders.”
Quarterback Situation:
Kirk Cousins: Last season, Cousins struggled with injuries and inconsistent performance. The hosts predict his potential move to Cleveland (03:05), leaving room for Michael Penix Jr.'s growth.
Michael Penix Jr.: Expected to take over as the primary quarterback, Penix's performance will be pivotal. Jason mentions, “Penix is willing to throw the ball a ton” (45:18).
Offensive Line and Weapons:
Defensive Struggles:
Fantasy Implications:
Notable Quote:
Jason Moore (52:47): “This is the combination where you find some just stinky treasures for fantasy football.”
Quarterback Updates:
Bryce Young: Young has shown significant improvement post-suspension, averaging second in quarterback scrambles and seventh in fantasy points per dropback (52:43).
Tyler Shuck: As a potential starter, Shuck’s performance remains a wildcard, with discussions around his readiness and potential impact on the team’s offense.
Offensive Strengths:
Running Game: Bijan Robinson continues to be the focal point, offering a high ceiling for fantasy managers. The offensive line supports a diverse run-pass hybrid, enhancing the Panthers' versatility.
Receiving Corps: Juwan Johnson emerges as a key target, fitting into a slot-heavy offensive scheme under new head coach Kellen Moore.
Defensive Concerns:
Fantasy Implications:
Notable Quote:
Jason Moore (52:47): “This is the combination where you find some just stinky treasures for fantasy football.”
Team Performance:
Last Season: The Saints finished with a 5-12 record, underperforming despite a strong schedule.
Current Projections: Projected to finish at 5.5 wins this season, the team faces rebuilding with significant changes in coaching and player personnel.
Coaching and Quarterback Changes:
Head Coach: Kellen Moore takes over, bringing an offensive-minded approach to a team struggling on defense.
Quarterback Situation: With Derek Carr departing, the Saints are in search of stability at the QB position, considering rookies Tyler Shuck or Spencer Rattler.
Offensive Highlights:
Wide Receivers: Chris Olave remains the primary option, with Juwan Johnson adding value in the slot. Alvin Kamara continues to be a PPR staple despite limited usage.
Rushing Game: Chuba Hubbard stands out as a reliable RB16, offering consistent production despite a challenging offensive line.
Fantasy Implications:
Notable Quote:
Mike Wright (52:46): “This is the combination where you find some just stinky treasures for fantasy football.”
Quarterback Insights:
Baker Mayfield: Positioned as a top-10 QB with projections of 35 passing touchdowns and enhanced rushing yards.
Bryce Young vs. Tyler Shuck: Young shows promise with increasing fantasy points, while Shuck remains a risky but potentially rewarding option.
Running Backs:
Bijan Robinson: Continues to be a high-demand RB with a strong workload and red-zone opportunities.
Chuba Hubbard: Offers consistent production in PPR formats, though limited by offensive line performance.
Wide Receivers:
Mike Evans vs. Chris Godwin: Evans remains a dependable WR8, while Godwin presents a higher risk-reward scenario due to injury concerns.
Juwan Johnson: Late-round value with potential for increased targets in Carolina’s offense.
Tight Ends:
Notable Quote:
Jason Moore (33:02): “He was 4,000, 540. So then it's like, you know, I've said it. I put it on record before.”
Host Predictions:
Mike Wright:
Andy Holloway:
Jason Moore:
Consensus: Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored to lead the division, with Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers vying for the middle spots. The New Orleans Saints are predicted to finish last, continuing their rebuilding phase.
Notable Quote:
Mike Wright (67:29): “I can start because I know what mine is. I'm going Tampa Bay at the top.”
The hosts wrap up the episode by teasing upcoming shows, including NFC East and West breakdowns, mock drafts, and other fantasy football resources. They encourage listeners to engage with their community platforms and utilize tools like the Ultimate Draft Kit for optimal draft performance.
Final Quote:
Jason Moore (68:12): “Avoiding the risk ... but
it's the stability of Tampa.”
Conclusion
This episode of the Fantasy Footballers provides an in-depth analysis of the NFC South, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of each team while offering actionable advice for fantasy managers. From legal updates impacting player availability to strategic recommendations for drafts, the hosts ensure listeners are well-prepared to navigate the complexities of the upcoming fantasy football season.
Note: Timestamps are indicative and correspond to the transcript provided.