NFC South + Kerryon Kingdom, AJ Injury

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: NFC South + Kerryon Kingdom, AJ Injury
Release Date: July 30, 2019

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deep into crucial fantasy football news, focusing primarily on the NFC South division and significant player updates. The episode provides comprehensive analysis, expert opinions, and actionable advice to help listeners navigate their fantasy football strategies effectively.

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1. Kerryon Johnson's Release and Fantasy Implications

The show kicks off with a heated discussion about the Detroit Lions' decision to cut Kerryon Johnson, a move that sent shockwaves through the fantasy football community.

• Jason Moore ([03:15]):
  "Kerryon Johnson is not going to be one of those 265 carry backs. He can be one of those Alvin Kamara type backs that can get 215, 220 carries and add in 80 targets."

  Jason emphasizes Johnson's potential as a dual-threat running back, highlighting his receiving capabilities and workload versatility. He expresses disappointment over the Lions' decision, which impacts his personal rankings as he initially valued Johnson highly.

• Andy Holloway ([04:55]):
  "I have him at 16 and I think it's actually borderline impossible for him to be a top 10 back this year."

  Andy counters by positioning Johnson lower in his rankings, citing the Lions' offensive struggles and the potential limitations on Johnson's workload under Coach Matt Patricia.

• Mike Wright ([10:17]):
  "If Kerryon Johnson is benching behind someone like LeGarrett Blunt, it’s going to cap his performance."

  Mike aligns more with Jason's perspective, suggesting that Johnson could still secure a significant role despite the team's overall inefficiency.

The trio ultimately engages in a water bet regarding Johnson's ranking, illustrating their differing viewpoints and the unpredictable nature of fantasy football.

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2. AJ Green's Injury Update

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to the unfortunate news regarding AJ Green:

• Andy Holloway ([12:43]):
  "A.J. Green, hashtag bts. He's going to be sidelined for six to eight weeks with torn ligaments in his left ankle."

  The injury sidelines one of the Bengals' key wide receivers, prompting discussions about the ripple effects on the team's offense and fantasy implications.

• Jason Moore ([13:25]):
  "If you want my take, at least remove it. It was a dumb decision."

  Jason critiques the NFL's handling of Green's situation, expressing frustration over his diminished availability.

• Mike Wright ([14:17]):
  "If Lev Bell misses camp for a hamstring issue, when he comes back, there’s no chance someone plays into a timeshare here."

  Mike underscores the uncertainty surrounding Green's return and the potential impact on his fantasy value.

The hosts collectively agree to downgrade Green's fantasy prospects, positioning him lower in their rankings due to the injury concerns.

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3. Other Player News and Projections

Beyond Johnson and Green, the hosts touch upon various other player updates:

• Doug Baldwin:
  Jason reflects on Baldwin's injury woes, comparing them to AJ Green's scenarios.

• Jared Cook ([35:53]):
  "Jared Cook is interesting to me. We at least learned a little bit from what happened with Kobe Fleener."

  The trio debates Cook's potential return to form with the Saints, weighing his previous performance heavily influenced by team dynamics against his inherent talent.

• Calvin Ridley ([56:57]):
  "Last year as a rookie had 92 targets. That's a lot. So maybe that volume can squeak up a little bit."

  Discussions revolve around Ridley's target volume and whether he can maintain or exceed his rookie year performance without the same team dynamics.

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4. NFC South Divisional Breakdown

A substantial segment of the podcast is dedicated to analyzing the NFC South teams: New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

A. New Orleans Saints

• Andy Holloway ([29:00]):
  "Mark Ingram is gone. A key subtraction. How do you see this running game breaking down?"

  The Saints' offense undergoes significant changes with Mark Ingram's departure and the addition of Latavius Murray. The hosts explore how these adjustments impact the team's rushing dynamics and overall offensive efficiency.

• Jason Moore ([30:33]):
  "Latavius Murray is stepping into a role very similar. I don’t expect Latavius Murray to get the exact same workload that Mark Ingram received."

  Jason analyzes Murray's expected role, suggesting a slight reduction in workload but still valuing his contribution to the Saints' backfield.

B. Carolina Panthers

• Jason Moore ([41:44]):
  "I am really excited about the Panthers this year. This is one of those bounce-back teams."

  The hosts express optimism about the Panthers' potential resurgence, highlighting key players like DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Cam Newton. They discuss the offensive upgrades and the implications for fantasy football, particularly focusing on Cam Newton's quarterback play and how it affects wide receiver performances.

• Mike Wright ([44:42]):
  "The problem with DJ Moore is it just comes down to draft cost. I think he has a good chance as, as any of these."

  Mike delves into DJ Moore's value in drafts, debating his potential upside against his draft cost.

C. Atlanta Falcons

• Andy Holloway ([51:19]):
  "People out there going like what should I do with him? Yeah, what should I do?"

  The discussion revolves around Devonta Freeman's role and injury risk, analyzing the Falcons' offensive line improvements and how they might translate into Freeman's fantasy value.

• Jason Moore ([52:09]):
  "Depending on how my first two rounds go, I’m perfectly happy with Devonta Freeman ending up as my running back one if I get two high-end."

  Jason shares his strategy regarding Freeman, balancing his potential high performance against associated risks.

D. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Andy Holloway ([60:08]):
  "Bruce Arians is coming in. Bruce Arians, by all intensive purposes, is the Yogi Berra of the NFL at this point."

  The hosts humorously discuss Coach Bruce Arians' colorful quotes and the implications for the Buccaneers' offensive strategies under his leadership.

• Mike Wright ([61:13]):
  "When the addition of Cook, with the fact that Keith Kirkwood has been, you know, maybe he's more involved."

  Mike evaluates the impact of new coaching strategies and quarterback dynamics, particularly how they affect the team's offense and, consequently, fantasy projections.

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5. Fantasy Rankings and Projections

The trio offers nuanced fantasy rankings, weighing player performance, team dynamics, and injury risks:

• Quarterbacks:
  The discussion includes Drew Brees' reliability versus Jameis Winston's unpredictability, with Andy stating, "He’s not an every week starter." Jason considers Cam Newton a viable late-round quarterback with high weekly ceilings.

• Wide Receivers:
  Calvin Ridley and DJ Moore are scrutinized for their target volumes and efficiency. Andy cautions against overvaluing Ridley based on his touchdown efficiency rather than consistent target distribution.

• Tight Ends:
  Jared Cook and Austin Hooper are debated regarding their potential fantasy impact, with Jason skeptical about Hooper's role beyond being a third-tier target.

• Running Backs:
  Devonta Freeman's potential is emphasized, contingent on his health and workload, while Kerryon Johnson's ranking remains a point of contention between Andy and Jason.

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6. Notable Quotes and Insights

Throughout the episode, the hosts share memorable quotes that encapsulate their perspectives:

• Andy Holloway ([19:00]):
  "Do you want to take the chance on him? You probably get a deal on him."
  Referring to AJ Green, Andy highlights the risk-reward ratio in drafting injured players.

• Jason Moore ([22:19]):
  "You’ve got Tara Q, you’ve got everybody else."
  Discussing Jaguars' target distribution, emphasizing the spread of opportunities.

• Mike Wright ([66:18]):
  "They’re pretty much top three as a team."
  Commenting on the Saints' offensive metrics, reinforcing their dominance.

• Andy Holloway ([61:12]):
  "Chris Godwin has to change his fantasy baseline as a Fantasy starter."
  Highlighting Godwin’s potential growth in the Saints' offense.

These quotes provide succinct insights into the hosts' analytical approach and predictive models.

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Conclusion

The Fantasy Footballers deliver a comprehensive and engaging episode, rich with expert analysis and strategic advice. From dissecting the NFC South's intricacies to evaluating player injuries and fantasy projections, Andy, Jason, and Mike equip listeners with the knowledge needed to make informed decisions for their fantasy football teams. Whether debating Kerryon Johnson's future or strategizing around Bruce Arians' Buccaneers, the trio ensures listeners are well-prepared for the upcoming fantasy season.

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Stay Connected:
For more insights and updates, follow the Fantasy Footballers on Twitter at @the_ffballers and join their community at JoinTheFoot.com.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, Foot Clan, we got a great show prepared for you today. Jason can barely contain himself. He wants to talk. Carry on. But before we get this thing started, a couple quick reminders. Number one, you got to check out the ultimate draft [e-mail] we just made a huge update to the app version. UDK users can now draft players, star and mark players, and choose whether or not to display drafted players in the app. This is a huge upgrade. We listen to your request, we put it in there, and you can learn all about the ultimate draft [e-mail] we also want to thank Navy Federal for sponsoring today's show. Navy Federal is proud to serve over 8 million members, including active duty military, the DOD, veterans and their families. You'll receive a lifetime of membership benefits with Navy Federal and you can easily access accounts, transfer money, pay bills, deposit checks, all with the Navy Federal mobile app. Visit navyfederal.org footballers for more information or call 1-888-842-6328 or download the Navy Federal Credit Union app. Message and data rates may apply.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Go Welco.

[Andy Holloway]

He didn't even time it up right.

[Jason Moore]

I don't need to time anything right today. I'm just here to bask in the glory.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome into the show. I pointed at Jason. I said, of all the days that you get to open the show, do the yell, why not today the day? You're wearing a royal robe, a crown upon your head.

[Jason Moore]

Look, I love that. I believe it was this morning you mocked our good friend. Good.

[Andy Holloway]

Sorry, sir.

[Jason Moore]

Jason, our good friend of the show and host of our DFS show, Jake Seeley.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, you noticed that, didn't you?

[Jason Moore]

We're taking a preseason victory lap, which is pretty much the dumbest thing you can do, but I am.

[Mike Wright]

What are you talking about? It's the time for it, man. This is the best.

[Jason Moore]

Well, it is the only time you can do a preseason victory lap. You are right there. It's the preseason, but I'm on it. And I'm lapping Jake Seely right now. I'm on lap 10.

[Andy Holloway]

And that's on the basis of you having a crown on your head, a whatever behind you, this whole thing. When I came in this morning, I asked Brooks for one thing. I said, do you have a paper bag? I think Jason may need to breathe into a paper bag to contain himself on today's show.

[Mike Wright]

Look, YouTube, you are just lucky that Jason is the back. He is not on the sides. He is positioned very specifically the back.

[Andy Holloway]

Because I'm not sure he's wearing pants.

[Mike Wright]

That's exactly. I can't confirm or deny if always got it says king of the castle on the back of the rope.

[Andy Holloway]

So if you are, if you're joining us for the first time, have we.

[Mike Wright]

Ever said what happened.

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe you don't know that Jason is the greatest Kerryon Johnson truther in the land. And what's incredible is last week we said, I said there were rumors that Theo Riddick could actually get cut. It was a bit of a surprise, I think, to you guys and he was cut.

[Jason Moore]

It definitely was not a shock to me because I had read those reports a while ago. About a month ago I tweeted like, hey, let's, let's get this thing to happen. Some of the beat reporters were talking about how much money they could save by cutting them. They still like Zach Zinner. They brought CJ Anderson so they had the room to spare. But I, I mean, this is a huge deal because Kerryon Johnson is not going to be one of those 265 carry backs. That's not what they brought him in for. That's not the system that they want him to be in. But he can be one of those Alvin Camara type backs that can get 215, 220 carries and add in 80 targets a lot if you are utilized in that way, which obviously the Lions. I mean, look over the last five years, I believe Theo Riddick is the leader. If not, he's like number two in total targets at a running back position. And now that is the role that Kerryon Johnson is going to fill. That's not a Zach Zinner specialty. It's not a C.J. anderson specialty. So, so now you have a guy who is your first and second down back who is definitely the receiving back to a team and a quarterback that knows how to utilize that space. And he is great. But I say all that and I'm a little upset. I'm a little upset at this news because I was getting Kerryon Johnson everywhere. His fourth round ADP was stupid. As it was every third round or in the fourth round I would grab carry on Johnson. And now, yeah, good luck with that. Now I don't, now I just don't get him in all my leagues now. It's like people are putting him really high in their rankings as they should. Now. He's going to skyrocket.

[Andy Holloway]

So I want to get everybody's take on this. Today is the final divisional show. We have the NFC south on the show today. You can follow the podcast the fantasy footballers on twitter @the ffballers. And look, it's go time now. I mean, news is breaking by the minute, I guarantee. I mean, we're recording the show Monday for the Tuesday episode and we'll probably be behind on some of the news that comes out today. But there's so much to cover. I want to know what Mike, I want to know what your expectations are for Kerryon. I've done a lot of thinking about this. My knee jerk reaction, Jason, the second this news happened, I jumped in and my impulse was to make Kerryon Johnson My running back. 11. That's where I went in. And I'm just going to appropriate Theo Riddick. And the more I thought about this thing where I ended up was basically here. And you can, you can counterpoint me, you can receive this if it's possible with the crown upon your head. But I think a couple things. I have him at 16 and I think it's actually borderline impossible for him to be a top 10 back this year. That's the honest truth. After what I here's how I feel about the situation is that obviously we know what you said is 100% right. He will be the pass catching back. We know that being the pass catching back does not guarantee fantasy success for you. Otherwise, Jalen Richard and Austin Eckler and TJ Yelden, these are all guys with over 60 receptions last year that aren't upper echelon guys. It's going to come down to how much work he gets in the running game and scoring opportunities. Here's the problem that I have with projecting Kerryon Johnson too high and why I think he will be an ADP trap is that over the last couple of years there, last year there were three running backs in the top 10 that were on teams that were worse than.500 the year before. There were only two. And so first of all, you're up against it if you're on a team. This is not going to be a winning football team at the running back position.

[Jason Moore]

You already know one of those this year will be St. John.

[Andy Holloway]

And then you're talking, is it Mixon, is it Love Bell? Who are the other guys? Is Carry on going to beat those guys? Last year The Lions were 24th in yards per game, 25th in points per game. And this is not a team that I think I project to be a winning football team. They play in A division with the Vikings twice and the Bears defense two different times. And so, you know, we talk about David Johnson as that kind of use case of, okay, you're on a bad team and you, you did really well. Right. Well, for David Johnson to battle his way to number 10 last year he had 258 carries and 50 receptions. I don't believe, and this is on the basis of evidence that they'll give Kerryon the work that you want because Matt Patricia has already set forth a precedent and displayed evidence of him looking through a different lens than we are. Kerryon is hyper talented, but CJ Anderson and Zach Zinner, they both graded out the same as Kerryon in the running game last year. And there's just this. There's also the risk factor of injury that Kerryon struggled with last year. So I think it's actually really, really going to be impossible for him to be a top 10 guy. I settled at 16.

[Jason Moore]

If that's the case, then we have to water bet a top 12 because.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm totally comfortable water betting a top 12.

[Jason Moore]

That's done.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's, that's fine.

[Jason Moore]

And that's water bet.

[Andy Holloway]

That's nothing to do with Kerryon Johnson not being one of the most talented guys. If you told me Kerryon Johnson was on the Los Angeles Chargers, I think he now would have a different opportunity. But I only have him for four rushing touchdowns on the year. That's the honest truth.

[Jason Moore]

Sure, that's fine. You can have him down for that. When you say that we've seen the evidence already that he's not going to get the workload he needs, you're just wrong. Because last year, once the first two weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

That's not what I said. I said I've seen the evidence of Matt Patricia looking through a different lens and giving an extra work to a guy that was the least efficient running back in football last season because he wanted to give him the work.

[Jason Moore]

The first two weeks last year, Kerryon Johnson wasn't a starter, wasn't really involved much. It was all a Garrett Blunt. He started taking over week three, played through week 10, then was injured and out from 11 on. From week three through 10, he was already. That was with last year's terrible Lions injured, Matthew Stafford, trading away Golden Tate, you know, all the hullabaloo. Still with Matt Patricia, he was on a 16 game pace of 210 carries and 48 receptions. Not targets receptions with Theo Riddick there. 11, 62 yards on the ground. 340. So almost 1500 combined yards. And here's the thing, we all know, and if you don't know now, you know that the, the fantasy points per reception are so they're, they're nearly triple depending on your league format than a rushing attempt. So if you're talking about a guy who can be a 60, 70 reception back, that's going to be hard to not be in the top 15 or even the top 10. So I think he's firmly in the top 12. Obviously you don't. We've made a water bet and the best part about fantasy football is we're going to get to figure it out. But I love hearing your shade and I hope shade comes because let's keep his ADP low.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think it'll be interesting. Mike, where do you weigh in on Carry On's projection? How do you adjust him? Where is he at in your rankings?

[Mike Wright]

So I'm far more on the side with Jason. He moved up to number 12 for me, so I do have him in that range. And just to speak a little bit more to the shift.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

At the beginning, don't buy into the beginning of the season. What happened where it was really frustrating that Matt Patricia was putting LeGarrett blunt out there once Kerryon put a full stranglehold on the starting job, meaning LeGarrett Blunt was getting three carries. 5, 6, 6, 7. And then his end of season numbers look good because once Kerryon Johnson left the season with an injury, then they went back to LeGarrett Blunt being the primary ball carrier. And we do have very, very small sample. It's only two games. But if you look at the split where the, where Theo Riddick was out but Carry On Johnson was in, he went up literally two full targets a game up to five and a half. I mean he. Which is by the way, that's 88 targets. So that puts it puts very realistic for Kerryon Johnson to hit that 60 plus reception area. If he's a 200 carry guy, a 60 plus reception guy, then Kerryon Johnson is going to be a stud.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you believe that? Matt Patricia, Zach. Both Zach Zinner and C.G. anderson are leaps and bounds ahead of what Legare Blunt was. From an efficiency standpoint, they brought in CJ Anderson for a purpose. I'm concerned that CJ will get the goal line work, Zach Zinner will get the goal line work and you won't see enough in the running game to get in that top 10. But 70 reception, if you told me he's going to be over 70. It changes the equation a little bit.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, maybe. Maybe they give some goal line work to C.J. anderson. Or maybe C.J. anderson was good last year because everybody's good at the running back position for the Rams. And they're going to find out very quickly that there is a reason that C.J. anderson was cut from. Was cut from multiple teams.

[Jason Moore]

That's right. He signed. Who did he sign with, The Niners? No, Oakland. He signed with someone for a week and then got cut again after the Panthers.

[Mike Wright]

He was struggling to get a job. Carry on, Johnson. I believe Kerryon will receive the vast majority of the work, including goal line work.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we've got so much more news to cover.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league presented by Sleeper.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, AJ Green, hashtag bts.

[Jason Moore]

This one feels bad. Lower than below the belt. It feels below the shin.

[Andy Holloway]

It is below the shin. Six to eight weeks, he's going to be sidelined. Torn ligaments in his left ankle.

[Jason Moore]

That is a different foot. All of his struggles last year with the right. Right foot, right toe. This is now the left.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. It is par for the course now for A.J. green. I mean, he, through the beginning of his career, always healthy and reliable. Now always injured.

[Jason Moore]

Can I. Can I bring out a comp here and see if you guys are as afraid as I am? I'm gonna throw a name out there and see if you can do whatever you want. King sweet Doug Baldwin.

[Mike Wright]

Right? As in.

[Jason Moore]

As in last year, you started to see him dealing with injuries, and then in camp he got injured again, and we're like, well, his value was there because now he was dropping. My biggest takeaway, if you remember our things to remember episode was in the preseason in the draft season. I'm not buying the injury dip. I was in on Doug Baldwin last year. I was like, well, he's so good. He's on a great offense. He's been a top wide receiver for multiple years.

[Mike Wright]

When you had Pete Carroll saying everything.

[Jason Moore]

Was perfectly fine and then his ADP dropped, he looked juicy there. And obviously anybody who drafted Doug Baldwin was very disappointed. So. So is there a comp there or not?

[Mike Wright]

I. Man, I think there might be a bit of a comp there because I was going to say, where are we willing to draft AJ Green now, knowing he misses one to three games and then even when he comes back, is he at full strength?

[Andy Holloway]

I think I projected him at 77% of the season.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, so got a body him.

[Andy Holloway]

That's just where I want him to be positioned in rankings for people Prescriptively, where you draft him, it's not good because when you come back from an injury like that, you don't know how limited the player is going to be.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly.

[Andy Holloway]

Even if he's back in two to three games, is he not really back for four to five? Does he re injure himself? Here's the reality. You're over 30 years old. You don't generally trend in a positive injury direction. It takes you longer to get back. Your chance of re injury happens more and more. I love AJ Green, the player when he's healthy. So look, it's risk aversion. Do you want to take the chance on him? You probably get a deal on him. Nobody wants to touch him right now. I mean, if you're seventh round, if sixth round.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, so like the Tyler Lockets, Kenny Golladays, that, that area, are you taking them or A.J. green?

[Andy Holloway]

I'm taking them.

[Mike Wright]

I'm taking them.

[Jason Moore]

I am as well.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. The Giants, they. By the way, A.J. green is down to our consensus wide receiver, 28 at the moment.

[Jason Moore]

I will say this as well. I think this is. I mean, obviously this is bad news for the Bengals as an organization for. From a winning standpoint, I think this is bad for the fantasy implications for the other players as well. Not a catastrophe. A lot's been made about Tyler Boyd not being as good with age of Green off the field. Part of that was his two of his worst games were with O'Driscoll. The O'Driscoll boys. But it does hurt.

[Mike Wright]

That's a throwback.

[Jason Moore]

It hurts. Joe Mitchell a little Driscoll. Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I remember that.

[Jason Moore]

It hurts. I mean, this is, this is something I think that takes away a little bit from mixing a little bit from Boyd. Definitely John Ross. Yes, it does.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, if you, if you want to talk about some opportunity in the first couple weeks, I mean, you can't throw it to Boyd on every play. It helps Tyler Ifert, maybe from a target perspective. I don't know. It's just unfortunate for fantasy owners. I mean, I've been wanting to steal a healthy AJ Green in the fourth round. It's not going to happen now. Giants wide receiver Golden Tate, four game suspension for violating the PED policy. He is appealing. He is going to lose.

[Jason Moore]

I will be shocked if he loses. He's going. I will be shocked if he loses. If he does not get it reduced to two games or even just removed. I will. Do you guys know the story? So.

[Andy Holloway]

Of course I know the story. A man took he took some medications for fertility. For fertility. Without checking the label before you get in the NFL. But you always get popped for that.

[Jason Moore]

Sure. And you get popped. And he acknowledged like, of course he knew a suspension had to come.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. He talked to them ahead of time. Just like Benjamin Watson did when he took the same exact fertility treatments over the off season. He went ahead and told the league before he got popped. His suspension was uphill.

[Jason Moore]

But there was a big difference because Benjamin Watson was. Was doing a full treatment. He was retired. And that's where the performance enhancing comes in. Whereas Golden Tate found out, stopped, alerted them, had no performance enhancing. And then that was before being tested. So I would. I think it should be removed down to two.

[Andy Holloway]

But you are the king. If you could institute that yourself, I would buy into your narrative.

[Jason Moore]

If I could make the ruling. I don't believe he had any performance enhancing from performance enhancement from this. And he alerted them before ever failing. So I would say remove it. Yeah, it was a dumb decision.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they've. The NFL has pretty. Been pretty hard nosed on you. You better know what you're putting in your body. It doesn't matter.

[Andy Holloway]

High level of accountability there. Derek Henry in a walking boot got injured in Friday's practice. Titans say they're not worried about the lower leg injury. That's fine. I mean, they should be worried about not having Derek Henry this year. If the entire offense is supposed to be on his back and he goes down and you look at that running back room and you wonder it does. I mean, what, what are you going to get?

[Jason Moore]

You're going to get Dion Lewis. I mean, it does bring to light the fact that Dion Lewis is a quality handcuff. And he's more than that, obviously, in the sense that he, because he's a pass catcher, he could be have some flex appeal on a weekly basis. But I had pretty much been leaving Dion Lewis for dead in my drafts in my thought process. So that's where it brings. It's too early to know. We don't even know what the foot injury is.

[Andy Holloway]

No, but it does bring Deon Lewis to mind. You're right. Damian Williams left Sunday's practice hamstring tweak. Also missed practice on Monday. So right now, hamstring injury for Damian Williams. We don't know how long that will be. But not great news.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, we hate hamstring injuries in training camp because they can linger.

[Andy Holloway]

I would get mine removed if I was going to the NFL. You know how you don't pull a hamstring don't have one.

[Jason Moore]

Get rid of that acl.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm removing ankle, everything below the shin.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So two rollerblades.

[Jason Moore]

Obviously these can linger. They can come back. But he should be fine timeline wise. But there is a concern here of like, look, if Lev Bell misses camp for a hamstring issue, when he comes back, he's the guy. There's no chance someone plays into a timeshare here. There is a little bit of a worry. Not, not I, you know, I still got him. I didn't adjust him yet, but it's one of those, like, if you look at those top backs in the draft, that's one of the worries with Damian Williams. He. The investment in him is not.

[Andy Holloway]

You have to get the out. Yeah, yeah. Let's move on. Let's talk about Sony. Michelle activated from the pup, practiced. Looked great in practice from beat writers that were on scene. Right now, Michelle's being drafted behind Philip Lindsay, behind Mark Ingram. Tony Michelle is a value as of today.

[Jason Moore]

He is. And this is coming from a guy who bodied him on our first live. He was like my bust guy because he was up at the top of the third, almost a second round pick and he had way too much risk. But now, I mean, if he granted, it's gone the other way. He's so, he's, he's dropped so much since then. It's so funny how the same player who can have the same outlook, I haven't changed my opinion on what I expect from him. But now when you're three rounds later, you're actually a value.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, a little bit of hype. Let's talk about it. Frank Reich, impressed with one of Mike's favorite rookies. Paris. Paris Campbell, hype train. Frank Reich came out like a fantasy football fan with this quote saying, look, he was making legit NFL, I'm going to be a stud receiver plays.

[Mike Wright]

I like this Frank Reich voice. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

What he did in the red zone weren't hybrid gadget slot receiver plays. They were legit. So Paris Campbell, his involvement in the screen game. One of the best screen game players in college. One of the best screen game players probably heading into this year. Changes my opinion a little bit about Naim Heinz volume changes my opinion on look, Devin Funches, he was hurt, came back in during practice, but made people think about Paris Campbell. The Twitter victory laps are hilarious. I mean because Devin Funches left the field and I saw multiple people say, like, this is Paris Campbell season, it's over. Like he's taken over. And then like they roll Devin funches back out, puts helm back on. He plays. So we're looking.

[Jason Moore]

You gotta be quick with those victory laps.

[Mike Wright]

That's why it's the best.

[Jason Moore]

As soon as you hear the news, just start running.

[Mike Wright]

Well, as soon as the lap is done.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you did it. You complete.

[Mike Wright]

You took your victory lap.

[Andy Holloway]

Paris Campbell help Feels good. Paris Campbell helps Andrew Luck.

[Mike Wright]

Oh yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

But does he help fantasy owners?

[Jason Moore]

I still weary tbd. I'm still weary of drafting a rookie. Not the number one option. Might be the number two option by the end of the season. I think Paris Campbell makes some noise but we've talked about this before. Most of the time when look at last year, right. There was some noise making Rookie wide receivers. D.J. moore had a great stretch. Dante Pettis had a great stretch. But they were second half of the season. They didn't. They don't get off to a strong start usually.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Caleb Blige quote has a real chance to win the starting job. According to ESPN's Cameron Wolf.

[Mike Wright]

That's going to be a. I think it'll be a big time split there.

[Andy Holloway]

I have them at same carries. 175 each. Miles Boykin, Marquis Brown, any interest Ravens camp talking up Miles Boykin most impressive receiver. Well, you are going to be when there's no one else. Except for Willie Snead and Marquis Brown, their first round rookie isn't even on the field. Sometimes those reports are deceptive because there just aren't a lot of other players out there.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Miles Boykin though. Any thoughts? Interest?

[Mike Wright]

Not really.

[Jason Moore]

The guy who's been targeted has been the receiver we like the best. I mean, yeah, it's not that. If I need to get a Baltimore receiver, it's Mark Andrews at tight end.

[Andy Holloway]

Maurice Harris, wide receiver from New England, one of the guys I really liked on film in Washington last season they had a lot of injuries at the wide receiver position. He stepped in. He played played up to that. That opportunity. He had got signed by New England and now their beat reporter Andrew Callahan's reporting he's been the best receiver in camp by a decent margin. I also read that same story.

[Mike Wright]

Julian Edelman, their best receiver, isn't playing.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, but he is playing ahead of Nikhil. Harry's playing.

[Mike Wright]

Harry's playing twos but that's. Harry will eventually be one of the starters.

[Andy Holloway]

Right now Harris and Dorsett in the starting lineup.

[Mike Wright]

And by the way, we do, we do need to bring up that 49ers running back Jerick McKinnon was placed on the active PUP list possibly making this the mess of the San Francisco 49er backfield a little bit easier to decode because it'll be. Right now it's Tevin Coleman with a.

[Andy Holloway]

Flare up to his acl.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

With to his knee.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Right now it's Tevin Coleman I think is by far the the highest probability odds of being being the guy with fantasy value. But then it's Matt Barrina and And don't forget Colonel Mustard there as the RB3. But look, if someone there, somebody there will have value 100% I think two.

[Andy Holloway]

Can have value there.

[Mike Wright]

Two, you think both Coleman and Burrito.

[Andy Holloway]

Compare in a Shanahan offense. If they're a top half offense that can both have value. Matt Burrida was dominant last year, not kind of good. One of the best pure runners in the game from a metric standpoint. They're going to use him and then Tevin Coleman has the history with Kyle Shanahan.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

And going to have a tremendous amount of pass catching opportunities. I think that they're just going to help that offense. And look value wise, I mean you got to pay for Tevin Coleman. Matt Breed is free. So depending on what you want to do. If you're not certain that Coleman's your guy, like you don't like him, then take Burrito out of value. If you're certain about Coleman, take him high.

[Jason Moore]

I'm fine taking either but if I had to put a shot it would be on Breida because of the price and the fact that look, we've seen Tevin Coleman utilized by Shanahan before and it wasn't as a starter. He's a great, you know, come in change of pace, type of back and so who's to say if there's someone, you know there's always. I mean the Falcon system of Freeman and Coleman are utilized as comps for.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's for everyone, for everyone, any team.

[Jason Moore]

But if there's one person who's who I could peg for a Tevin Coleman row role in a Kyle Shanahan system, it would be Tevin Coleman.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he fits the role better. Now the thing is is last year Coleman had an opportunity for the year to be more than what he was and he didn't do it. He didn't really do it. Big play guy but didn't really between the tackles wasn't consistent. That's why I think Breido will have a role. We'll see. That's today's news and notes. There'll be more and more and more and more over the next month. And a reminder, we're going five days a week from August through December so we'll have time to talk about it all. And a reminder Sleeper doesn't just break the latest news, they sponsor our new segment and they are the best fantasy platform.

[Mike Wright]

I also want to thank today's sponsor, SmileDirect Club. Ladies and gentlemen, you got to get the Chiclets right and SmileDirectClub is helping you do that easier and cheaper than ever. They're straightening your teeth for 60% less than braces with clear aligners sent directly to you. You're just sitting at your home and you're straightening your teeth.

[Andy Holloway]

That's all I do at home.

[Mike Wright]

How amazing is that? You can go online. You can book a free 3D image at one of their shops or you can order an at home impression kit. They'll email a preview of your new smile. Get a look at how awesome your teeth are going to look. You can visit SmileDirectClub.com for real before and after photos look, you can get this free 3D image of your smile at one of their Smile shops or get a $25 rebate on an at home impression kit then exclusive for our listeners. Get $100 off your clear [e-mail] podcast and use the offer code fantasy again $100 off smiledirectclub.com podcast. The offer code is fantasy. One more time smiledirectclub.com podcast the offer is. Our offer code is fantasy and FootClan.

[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

Longtime sponsor, she uses them.

[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

All right. Our final divisional matchup show the NFC South. I've conceded due to all of the news and hype and Jason, you've taken off the robe. You're ready to talk about a different division.

[Jason Moore]

You're just a man now.

[Andy Holloway]

This is encouraging. I'm just a man. I've conceded. This show is going to be a little longer. I don't care. That's fine. I'm going to breathe into the paper bag. I'll be okay. It'll be a longer show. We're going to talk about the Saints, the Panthers, the Falcons and the Buccaneers. And let's start with the saints. 13 and 3 last year, so close to a Super bowl berth.

[Jason Moore]

Careful.

[Mike Wright]

Careful.

[Andy Holloway]

An absolutely great team. We saw the resurgence of this team last year in a big way. Their defense led the division in points against by a wide margin. And they were the second best rushing defense in terms of yards per game given up. And they were incredible. Drew Brees led offense, sixth in yards per game rushing as a Sean Payton offense always is. And then 12th in yards per game passing. They want to run the football. Mark Ingram is gone. See you later. Key subtraction. And they lost their center, Max Unger. A surprise retirement.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a fundamental piece of an offense. We saw a collapse in Seattle of the offensive line when, well, this very.

[Mike Wright]

Same man left Max Unger ruining lines.

[Andy Holloway]

So look, it's just kind of a such a cerebral role. You have the physical side of being a center and then you have the understanding of what the line assignments need to be and being able to be on the same page with your quarterback. So they drafted a center in the second round. How do you see this running game breaking down? Let's start there. Alvin Camara. They add Latavius Murray. There's rumors of Theo Riddick visiting. Riddick's also visiting the Broncos. So Camara, Murray, how do you see this offense? I think we like Latavius Murray as a value because you're not buying him at the price you would have paid for Mark Ingram. But he's stepping into a role very similar.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And he is a similar back. I don't think the gap between Mark Ingram and Latavius Murray is as large as the ADP gap. Is that being said, what? You know what happens Just naturally human behavior. Right. Alvin Camara came into marking room's team. That was. Marking room was the incumbent and he was there. Now this is Alvin Kamara's team and Latavius Murray is coming in. So I don't expect Latavius Murray to get the exact same workload that Mark Ingram received. I think he's going to have a slightly lighter version, which means more going to Camara. And we saw the first four weeks last year when Mark Ingram was injured. Three of those first four weeks, Alvin Camara wasn't a running back one. He was the running back one. That is amazing. So, I mean, that's why Kamara has really moved into that tier one group that, you know, those top four running backs that everybody wants a piece of one of those guys. I'm not worried. Now if, if Theo Riddick were to sign, does that, does that, do you think, take away. Because of the fact that he is pretty much exclusively a pass catching specialist, does that take away some of the value from where Camara excels?

[Andy Holloway]

No, because Theo Riddick is really bad at it.

[Jason Moore]

What?

[Andy Holloway]

He's not good.

[Jason Moore]

He's not.

[Andy Holloway]

He can catch the ball and he's one of the worst at actually doing anything with it. Once he has the ball.

[Mike Wright]

Sure. If you need three yards, he's one of the best.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. If you need three yards, yeah, he's your guy.

[Andy Holloway]

So. No, I don't, I don't. One, I don't think he'll sign there, but if he does, I don't think he hurts Camaro too much. I don't know if you guys have ever heard this, and I, you know, Evan Silva, he talked about a time he got to speak with Sean Payton, and Sean Payton said basically Camara's soft. That's what he said. He said that.

[Mike Wright]

And when was this quote from, though? This was last year. Recent.

[Andy Holloway]

Just in the context of the fact that he's not going to hold up under a huge workload, you need to have a complimentary back like a Tavius Murray or Mark Ingram. And you know, Camara has had a concussion thing before. He's. He's a smaller guy. He's going to be great. I love him. He's in our top echelon of backs. But anybody expecting him to Suddenly become a 250 carry guy is just wrong. This is not going to happen.

[Jason Moore]

I agree with that completely. I mean, Sean Payton has always used multiple backs and it's never ever felt like one of the classic RBBCs. Because the saints running backs, if you Just look, historically, look at the last 10 years, or at least the Drew Brees, Sean Payton era. Pretty much the Saints running backs as a team are number one or number two in fantasy production every single year. They know how to get their backs the ball in space. They know how to utilize them. When they get down near the goal line, they will use Camara. Camara is such an efficient goal line back. I have no worries about Camara. And I would take Latavius Murray where his ADP is as well, because not only do you have a guy who could start in the flexibility on pretty much most weeks, I would say, but if Camara goes down and they're forced to, you know, they'll still split the workload up. It's not like Latavius Murray would just go complete lion's share, but he will be the presumed starter. And that's just a valuable role.

[Andy Holloway]

It is. And let's talk about Jared Cook, because there are those of you out there that want to take Jared Cook's, you know, you look at what he did last year, very effective. There's some hype around camp. We also have the cautionary tale of Kobe Fleener in New Orleans, the cautionary tale of. Look how much of Jared Cook's successful season last year was the product of just pure, unadulterated target opportunity because everybody was hurt and injured and Derek Carr likes to throw the ball short. And Jared Cook was, you know, he's an athletic player, but consistency hasn't been his M.O. and I wonder, you know, I've, I've projected pretty high, but he's going in the seventh round because I think some people believe the same thing, that he could be kind of one of those sneaky tight ends with Breeze. And, you know, it's Michael Thomas and everybody else right now in the passing game.

[Mike Wright]

So that's why Jared Cook is interesting. And to answer your question, was his fantasy value and output last year completely related to the fact that Oakland had no one else to throw the ball to? The answer is 100% yes. However, not all tight ends, if they're put in that position, can actually have the success that production, the production and success that Jared Cook had last year. Meanwhile, the Saints tight ends, I mean, they're. They're still getting big plays. Last year they had 14 receptions of 20 or more yards. That was eighth in the league. That's only five fewer splash plays than Philadelphia and Zachary and six fewer than Kansas City and Travis Kelsey. Like, and that's what the conglomeration of Dan Arnold, the Postman who on the on Monday through Friday is delivering your mail and then played for the Saints on Sundays. Then you had Josh Hill and Ben Watson. These were the guys and they were still able to put up decent production. And if one guy can take a leap, Jared Cook is. He's interesting to me. I think we. We at least learned a little bit from what happened with Kobe Fleener because his hype trained guy out of control. I feel like Kobe Fleena was like a.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you know anybody that was like super into him?

[Jason Moore]

I do. I don't know.

[Mike Wright]

I do know and I feel that is directly correlated with the reason that Jason is so hesitant to get on board.

[Andy Holloway]

That's possible. Jared Cook outside of his top 10. Mike at 6, I'm at 7.

[Jason Moore]

I've got him at 11. So I've got him as a back end, tight end one. But if he's going in the seventh round, my tight end 11 is not going to pay off as a seventh round.

[Andy Holloway]

Not at all.

[Jason Moore]

And the fact that he's clearly. I mean, he is not going to be the guy. And the question is, best case scenario, he's third in targets behind Camara and behind Michael Thomas. Realistically, when you talk about Ted Ginn and Treekwon Smith, now you're talking about is he. Is he fifth? Is he sixth in targets? He'll have some big games, but he's not going to have the target volume. I want to be reliable.

[Andy Holloway]

To me, I would bet he's third in targets. You would bet from a target standpoint, yes, because distribution from non Michael Thomas wide receivers I think will be spread around.

[Jason Moore]

Whereas, sure, Ken and Trey Kwon could very well eat into each other. That could happen.

[Andy Holloway]

And here's another point. Oakland, 18 points a game, fifth worst. New Orleans, 31 points a game, third highest scoring team. So even if he doesn't get what he gets in Oakland, he's going to score more. There's just no doubt about it. He has to.

[Jason Moore]

Well, and it is interesting they Jared Cook had the opportunity at least rumor, to go to New England and be lazy. Gronk and he chose to come to New Orleans.

[Andy Holloway]

So very interesting.

[Jason Moore]

Must have been something there. Unless it was just money. Got a $6 million signing bonus.

[Andy Holloway]

Humphreys turned down more money. Humphreys could have made more money in New England.

[Jason Moore]

Nobody wanted to go. I don't go to the Patriots.

[Andy Holloway]

Why? Why? Too many like Super Bowls, I guess. I don't get it. Outside of Michael Thomas, we don't need to talk about him. He's locked and loaded. Assuming he's signed.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. And I just one nugget that I came across. Michael Thomas to his greatness of last year. So before last year, the highest catch percentage for a wide receiver with 100 or more targets. It was Wes Welker in 2007. He caught 77% of his passes, which is a player of that volume is insane. Last year, Michael Thomas caught 125 passes on 147 targets, which is an 85% catch rate. Like we looked at his rookie year and went, oh, that's an, that's an outlier because it was like 75%. He can't possibly do that. Yeah, he can. Michael Thomas is really good.

[Andy Holloway]

And that's because Drew Brees and we'll talk about now. Drew Brees throws the ball closer to line of scrimmage than almost any quarterback in football. Josh Allen's at the polar opposite. Breeze's average depth of target is minuscule and he's getting older, so it's not really going to change. He's hyper accurate.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. Within that range, some would say the most accurate out of all time.

[Jason Moore]

Some.

[Andy Holloway]

Some just statistically speaking, yes. Drew Brees, is he an every week fantasy starter?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

Because of that sweet completion percentage bonus that your league obviously has?

[Jason Moore]

No. I don't view him as an every week starter. Certainly not someone that you have to start on a weekly basis. If you look at Drew Brees, is he going to finish as a top 12 option? Sure. Will he have great weeks? Absolutely. He plays in a division when he's playing the Falcons and the Panthers where you're going to have and the Bucks, we're going to have these big games, but their defense is good. They get off to a pretty tough stretch playing four starting. All four teams that they start the season made the playoffs last season. And in those games you might see a little bit more defense, a little bit more running. I mean, two years ago Drew Brees really let people down for fantasy. So I mean he's not a bad option, but he's not in every week. He's a guy that I'm fine to drop the waivers to pick up off of waivers.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's a secret. There's 12 quarterbacks that play on a weekly basis in your league. If you're in a 12 man league, there are 12 tight ends. I am not shooting for seven through 12 in either of those positions at any time. I don't want to draft the guy hoping that I get somebody in the bottom half of my league's quarterbacks. Or bottom half of my league's tight ends. Breeze to me, doesn't offer me the opportunity to, at that value, slide into the top six. That's why he's off my board.

[Jason Moore]

There you go.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, Trey Quan Smith or Ted Ginn, who are you taking your shot at right now? If you look at ADPs, Traquan's a 12th rounder, Gin's undrafted.

[Mike Wright]

If I have to take a shot on one of them, I guess it's going to be Treekwon.

[Andy Holloway]

But what if you combine them? What if it's Trey Ginn Smith?

[Mike Wright]

If I could get both, if I.

[Jason Moore]

Could get both for one player, I would.

[Mike Wright]

Can we work that out?

[Jason Moore]

I would choose that over either of them individually.

[Mike Wright]

Treekwon Ginsmith.

[Andy Holloway]

There should be a position in leagues that you get to play like it's like a best ball position. You play four guys in one flex spot and you just get the best score. And then you could start for Saints wideouts and make it easy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm not feeling the shot on either of those guys. With the addition of Cook, with the fact that Keith Kirkwood has been, you know, maybe he's more involved. He's been getting buzz in camp, Gin being healthy. I just think they're all going to have their slight moments that you're not going to be able to tell.

[Mike Wright]

And just the volume, the overall volume of Drew Brees just absolutely plummeting out the past few years where he went from 471 completions down to 386 down to 364. It's. It's clear where the trends are heading for this team. He'll still, like Breeze will still throw touchdowns, but I want volume.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, the Panthers at 7 and 9. It's time to talk about Carolina. Did either of you guys get to watch all or Nothing yet?

[Mike Wright]

I have not.

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

I heard there's. I heard it's great. There were some very interesting, some special moments there with Devin Funches in All or nothing. No joke. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Some touching moments. I haven't watched it all yet.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'll have to take. I am really excited about the Panthers this year. Like, I think that this is one of those bounce back teams who, you know, a couple years ago they were in the Super Bowl. They've really kind of imploded since that moment when they got shellacked. And now I think this is the best version of the offense that Cam has had maybe ever because you've got an up and coming. DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, Greg Olson is back Christian McCaffrey is being utilized the right way. I'm absolutely loving the value on a lot of these players in drafts, and no one more so than Cam Newton. Cam Newton. I think people forget how good he was last season because of the end.

[Mike Wright]

Because the end was so bad he.

[Jason Moore]

You know, hurt his shoulder.

[Mike Wright]

Oh.

[Andy Holloway]

Just needed to hear it.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I, I mean, push it again. My man. I hear that all day.

[Andy Holloway]

He's in your my guy consideration. I hear a rumor from before the show.

[Jason Moore]

He is in consideration. I think his ADP is outlandish. He's a guy that pretty much always finishes as a top six quarterback when he plays ninth round. If he goes and he gets injured.

[Mike Wright]

Sure, I'll pivot behind Russell Wilson. That's all you got to tell me. He's being drafted behind Russell Wilson. Yes, please. I will take Cameron Newton.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, Cam Newton was, before he went down, was on fire, was a top three quarterback last season. Has better weapons this year. Still is going to run the ball.

[Andy Holloway]

There's just, there's couple home games to start the year. The Rams, The Rams are going to put up some points. Cam's going to have to battle in that one. Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is going to put up some points.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, you're always hoping, right? Like when you take your later round shot, you want. I mean, obviously everyone wants to be like, oh, I've got the number one quarterback in fantasy football this year. Not many guys in that range have that kind of like they can't compete with the Mahomes. Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson tier. But Cam has and he's beaten them before.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you comfortable with drafting DJ Moore as a wide receiver too? Jason? You have him in that range at 17. Mike and I more in the late 20s and 30s. DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, opportunities are there on the outside. Cam Newton, high completion percentage last year. He's transforming a little bit as a passer. What do you guys think about the wide receiver position? I guess you could throw Greg Olson in there as a pass catcher and talk about him too. But what are you expecting from this offense?

[Mike Wright]

The problem with DJ Moore is it just comes down to draft cost. I think he has a good a chance as, as any of these.

[Jason Moore]

A good a chance.

[Andy Holloway]

A good a chance.

[Mike Wright]

Italiano of any of these guys to have a breakout season, certainly as a draft capital. And we've, we've seen him flash, but right now, going at the back of the fifth round, he's going, he's going ahead of Boyd, who actually did break out last year. He's going ahead of Alshon Jeffries, going ahead of Robbie Anderson. I mean, it's the guys who have. We've seen a little bit more from. So it's just. It's too much projection for me.

[Andy Holloway]

What about the price? What about Moore or Pettis? Two guys that don't have a lot of tape. DJ Moore or Dante Pettis? Where do you sit there?

[Mike Wright]

I would go with Dante Pettis, couple other Campos going.

[Andy Holloway]

D.J. moore, Calvin Ridley, Mike Williams.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I would take Mike Williams over DJ Moore. Calvin Ridley is probably around the same tier for me.

[Jason Moore]

See, and I view the first two differently than the second. I want the one, the potential to be the ones for their team. I see that in Pettis. I see that in DJ Moore. I don't see that in Mike Williams, obviously with Keenan Allen there or Calvin Ridley with Julio Jones. So DJ Moore's price, it is a little bit scary. But you did see him really take over in the second half of the season. From weeks 10 on, he was. He was already playing very well and he was a rookie. So all the buzz right now is Curtis Samuel. I mean he's. I mean, if. If you're on Twitter and you follow beat reporters for Carolina, then your Twitter is covered with Curtis Samuel.

[Mike Wright]

But Curtis Samuel continues to go very.

[Andy Holloway]

Very late 10th round guy. You pay, you pay such a lower price for Curtis Samuel dominating at every level. Reception perception showed that he dominated at every level, every route. Curtis Samuel is the steal on that office, giving me him in the 10th over DJ Moore in the fifth every day of the week.

[Mike Wright]

I just feel like what is the actual ceiling for DJ Moore and are you just. You're literally buying him at that ceiling in the fifth round?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know. I don't know if that's true. I don't know if that. His ceiling isn't a late fifth guy. I mean he was drafted to be an upper echelon receiver. So the ceiling for like he could be a 10 touchdown guy on the right season. I don't know if that's what Curtis Samuel could do.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, so wide receiver. But I'm saying djm, I'm just talking specifically to more wide receiver on wide receiver. 25 on fantasy football calculators. Like that's what you're paying for.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think his ceiling is probably 15.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's what I.

[Mike Wright]

You really think you can get there?

[Jason Moore]

I do absolutely think his ceiling is 15. If you know, look, Curtis Samuel is getting all the buzz, but I want to know who's going to get all the targets. And if DJ Moore is the number one target option, which I believe he will be, then yeah, if the offense is clicking, he could very well be a top 15 guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you interested in drafting the bag of bones that is Greg Olson?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, I. I mean your volume.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's the problem went down when discussing.

[Mike Wright]

Here's the problem with Greg Olson. I could be interested in drafting it because he made he's incredible value. But this year, more than really any other year that I can remember, the old guys, they're almost all values right now. I mean, Delaney Walker.

[Andy Holloway]

Delaney Walker, Jordan Reed.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly. The superstars of yesteryear are all going late and I would take a shot on one of those guys before I take the shot on Greg Olson.

[Jason Moore]

So you're saying you'd rather have Delaney walker in the 11th than Greg Olson in the 13th?

[Mike Wright]

Yes. Oh yes. In the 11th to 13th. I don't care of the value.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know, man. You got Anthony Miller, Devin Singletary, guys like that in the 11th. I would rather take them and drag a Greg Olson with my last pick of the 13th or second to last, whatever that is.

[Andy Holloway]

Interesting. I think I agree with you.

[Jason Moore]

I had you with the Anthony Miller. Where's.

[Mike Wright]

Where is Jordan Reed going?

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Because Jordan Reed's the one I'm interested in.

[Andy Holloway]

Boca Raton Retirement community.

[Mike Wright]

No, I get it. I get that Jordan Reed, it's. It's kind of just a fantasy football joke at this point. No, but any of the only player receiving real buzz out of Washington is Jordan Reed.

[Jason Moore]

So it's funny. The 13th round is basically the old busted the Isle of Manfit titles. You have Jordan Reed, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olson, and then you've got the two young guns in Noah Fant and Mark Andrews. So of that group, who are all five of those guys, who are you picking? No offense. Mark Andrews, Greg Olson, Jimmy Graham, Jordan.

[Andy Holloway]

I just went on a read, I just went on a tirade saying I don't target late round tight ends to end up in the 7 to 12 range.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

So I'd rather take my shot on a Mark Andrews. If I don't have it, guess what? I will sign off of waivers. The three of the four guys that don't get drafted in the 13 in that list. At least that's what I do. Let's talk Falcons 7 and 9. All right, it's time.

[Jason Moore]

Also, Christian McCaffrey is great, just. Oh yeah, we don't need to talk about Christian McCaffrey.

[Mike Wright]

He's my number one running back.

[Andy Holloway]

People out there going like what should I do with him? Yeah, what should I do?

[Jason Moore]

Trapped him, keep him. He's going to be one of the top four running backs.

[Andy Holloway]

Dirt cutter back on the offensive side here for the Falcons, Dan Quinn Head coach Matt Ryan accompanied time to talk about these Falcons last year they couldn't run the football. We've, we've kind of talked about that a lot this offseason. They were a good passing team, 290 yards a game. It's an interesting team. Obviously Julio Jones is great. You start them up, you get going. I think the doubt the problem in fantasy owners minds right now is related to how much work does the does the Falcons coaching staff want Devonta Freeman to have right versus sharing that workload. Tevin Coleman is gone. One of the big subtractions of the offseason spent two first round picks on offensive line to improve this running game. So if Freeman, I have no doubt that if Freeman stays healthy and gets all the work he'll be great. I just don't know if he can stay healthy and I don't know if he's going to get all the work because those things are part and parcel. Right. Like the team has to at some point step back and look at Devonta Freeman say boy we need to measure, measure out these reps. You know, let Edo Smith, a guy that this head coach drafted, Quadray Ollison, give them a shot to lighten the risk of Devonta Freeman. That's the only concern I think that is this for Freeman.

[Mike Wright]

Sure. But I don't think they can, I don't think they can do that because Edo Smith was just bad last year and I mean Olson's a rookie. I don't think they have the luxury. They are in a window of win now. You're coming into the later years of Matt Ryan's career. Julio Jones is also coming into later years of his career. This is the time the Falcons have to win now and Freeman is by far the best running back on that team. I'm not going to ignore the injury risk or say that it doesn't exist but I'm going to take my shot that depending on how my first two rounds go, I'm perfectly happy with Devonta Freeman ending up as my running back one if I get two high end.

[Jason Moore]

Wide receivers as your running back one yeah, I'm fine with him as my running back to I don't want to rely on someone that that's, that is that injury risk. You know you've got him and Leonard Fournette back to back in drafts. I don't want either one of them as my running back one. I'm fine to take that injury risk if it's not my main guy because then the truth is what you said with Ido Smith and Quadrioles and the win now Falcons, I believe is correct. They got down around the goal line and they could not run the ball in. I mean, Matt Ryan had three rushing touchdowns, which is more than his last five seasons combined because he had zero in the previous five seasons. They're going to use Devonta Freeman. I have no fear over his utilization, just over his injury.

[Andy Holloway]

And bad players get play. I mean Shark Hendrick west gets play. Devonte Booker gets play. Edo Smith was not efficient, but Dan Quinn was the one that came out and said he's going to get a significant increase in offensive looks in February when Tevin Coleman left. So it will be interesting. I love him as a 2. I would love Freeman as a 2 because it's going to be a good offense. It's going to be an offense that can move the football so their opportunities will be there. And maybe you're right, maybe a couple shots at Edo and Olison failing to get in the end zone is all it's going to take for Freeman to reclaim his crown.

[Jason Moore]

And I do love this division because when you play all the teams in this division, usually they're high scoring. You know, some division games are low scoring battles. This division is usually just a, let's see who can get to 50 points quicker. I love that. But a weird scheduling quirk. The Falcons don't play in the NFC south until Week 10, so you're not getting that division.

[Mike Wright]

What?

[Jason Moore]

You know, and then they play five in a row.

[Mike Wright]

Schedulers, what are you doing?

[Andy Holloway]

So giving us content.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Thank you, NFL.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason, are you still an anti every other year Matt Ryan guy?

[Jason Moore]

I am somewhat. Yes. You would call me an anti every other year Matt Ryan guy. I have him down in my rankings versus where he finished last year. The reason you're saying am I an every other year Matt Ryan guy is because of course that's what Matt Ryan has done for his career, which I don't think is in any way prescriptive of future.

[Andy Holloway]

He doesn't look on the calendar and go, dang it.

[Jason Moore]

It's.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, it's this year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean these are his fantasy finishes over the last few years. Second. Great. Last year, 15th. Second. 19th, seventh. 15th, seventh. So it's been a yo yo. And that's not prescriptive but it does point out that when, you know, I've got him down around 15, that's very in the realm of his possible outcome. Sure, 50% of his years, regardless of the back and forth nature he finishes around there. And it's all based on one thing and one thing alone. Touchdowns. Okay. He's always, he's part of a great offense. He's going to have a ton of yards, he's going to have a great completion percentage, he's got great weapons this year. So there's a lot to love here. But it's just touchdowns and he was very, very high. Eight touchdowns, more than his previous four year average this last year. Plus those rushing touchdowns I brought up. I just, I see that reverting when their defense was completely trash last year. They didn't have the ability to run the ball into the end zone last year. I think some of those touchdowns come away. I don't love Matt Ryan as far as finishing as a top three fantasy option this year like he did last year. Now I'm not sure I like his.

[Andy Holloway]

Ceiling week to week. Ceiling is great. In six point leagues from weeks two through 10 last year, he averaged the exact same fantasy points as Patrick Mahomes had seven QB1 performances during that span. So the ceiling for Matt, for Matt Ryan, if you're taking the shot on him, at least that ceiling is being the best quarterback on any given week, which is not something a lot of people can do. You spend a seventh round pick on him. I don't know if I really, I don't think he'll be on any of my teams just because I like guys that are later.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, the draft price is where I'm off of Matt Ryan. I still think he's going to be one of the better quarterbacks. I think he is one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. But when the seventh round when you know, like behind him you've got Carson.

[Jason Moore]

Wentz behind him, Kyler Murray behind him, late, late, you've got Cam Newton.

[Mike Wright]

I feel like I have this. I feel like I just have the Russell Wilson line. Like either you're an elite quarterback, you're Mahomes, Watson, Andrew Luck, Rodgers, or I'm going to wait until someone has taken Russell Wilson and know, okay, now, now I need to start getting in on the quarterback run.

[Andy Holloway]

Talk about Calvin Ridley. He's slid up in drafts to a place that I'm not extremely comfortable with him. I think he's a very talented player, but he's on that List of the Mike Williams Tyler Lockett group where look very efficient touchdown score last season. Overperformed from an efficiency standpoint. Yeah. But obviously can give you a big play. Never going to be the number one guy there. How comfortable are you with what is he in the fifth round? Where's Calvin Ridley's current ADP?

[Mike Wright]

Let me grab 506 on calculator.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I just, I find myself.

[Jason Moore]

There's not, there's no way that I'm going to take them there. There's no way. Because look, last year as a rookie had 92 targets. That's a lot. So maybe that volume can squeak up a little bit. But it's hard to do that when you threw the ball as much as they did last year and you got Julio Jones there. So barring a Julio Jones injury, which is realistic, but barring that I don't think he can squeeze up to become 125 target guy. So now you look at last year, he was a wide receiver too, but that was on the back of double digit touchdowns. I just talked about the fact that Matt Ryan was well over his usual average when it comes to touchdowns and what I expect.

[Mike Wright]

And Calvin Ridley's first year, is that a coincidence?

[Andy Holloway]

I do want to bring up last year was from what I can see, the highest touchdown numbers at the quarterback position at passing touchdown numbers that the NFL's had in a while. So like.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

When you have a guy with a long career arc, it's hard for me to look at historical average alone. Not, not that you are.

[Jason Moore]

I'm only looking at his previous 40 years because I think that's fair. Yeah. If you look at Matt Ryan's career, his, his, obviously the first half of his career, he wasn't a big touchdown thrower. I'm basically talking about since he's broken out as more of an elite fantasy option where he averages 28 passing touchdowns a season.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, all right, fair enough. Any, anybody else you want to touch? Austin Hooper. Yeah, I mean he was a tight end. He was the tight end. Six guys.

[Jason Moore]

There are some people really excited about him. I, I cannot get myself excited about Austin Hooper. And some of the beat reporters, they say he's really shining, but I don't know man, he's. He's clearly not. At best, he is the third target on the team for tight end. There's just higher upside picks. I would just, I mean, I guess.

[Mike Wright]

Wait, at best you said he's what.

[Jason Moore]

The third target on the team?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, at best he's fourth.

[Jason Moore]

No, I'M maximum. Okay, so who you're putting? Sanu or.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I would put.

[Jason Moore]

Obviously Ridley, Julio are ahead of him. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And Freeman probably, if he stays. Freeman. Not probably for sure. I mean, look, the he's been. It's just it was his third year in the NFL, so he still has room to grow. But three touchdowns, three touchdowns, four touchdowns last year when he was the tight end. What tight end? 6. That was the lowest point total for a tight end. Six in a very, very long time. Tight ends have been so incredibly disappointing the past couple of seasons. It correlates highly with the transition to passing to running backs far more frequently. But last year, Austin Hooper, 22% of his yards were in two games. Like, he had that couple little stretch where it was awesome. You're like, yeah, I streamed Austin Hooper back to back and it paid off. And then you were very, very disappointed for every other game.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we need to talk about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bruce Arians comes in. Bruce Arians, by all intensive purposes, is the Yogi Berra of the NFL at this point. His quotes are ridiculous. I had one. Did you guys see this quote about the team pooping their pants? I mean.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I did. Yeah. Let's go.

[Andy Holloway]

Sounds electric. I mean, it's right up our alley here.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I'm preparing my ears.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I'll have to find it. But it was essentially let down.

[Jason Moore]

We need the horn on that one.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I figured you heard it.

[Jason Moore]

No, I wanted to hear it. You teased it.

[Andy Holloway]

Give me two seconds.

[Mike Wright]

Shut down the show so I can google Bruce Arians pooping.

[Andy Holloway]

I believe he said that they crap their pants and pads. Once they put the pads on, they crap their pants.

[Jason Moore]

I love Bruce Arians so much.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, some bucks crap their pants today in pads. It's a little raggedy. The noise level went up and some guys messed their pants. But we'll grade the film. I'm just saying the quotes are coming from Bruce Arians. We're going to enjoy them. They already got some pooped in their big boy pants in practice.

[Mike Wright]

And the offense will also enjoy Bruce Arians.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, they were already the number one passing yards per game offense last season. Bruce Arians wants to throw the ball down the field. James Winston doesn't always want to throw to his own teammates or near them.

[Mike Wright]

Don't tell him what to do.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I'm not. That's the problem. I think you should tell him what to do because lately people have not been telling him and he's.

[Mike Wright]

Well, to be fair, I mean, Jameis once He came back from his. What was that, like, the third or fourth benching?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, the third or fourth benching. That's a good sentence.

[Jason Moore]

Good start.

[Mike Wright]

He actually was on his best. The best stretch of his.

[Andy Holloway]

On his best behavior.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's what I was like, oh, you're going to be a little bit more conservative here, not throw the interceptions. But you're right, his touchdown interception ratio was.

[Mike Wright]

It was the best of his career.

[Jason Moore]

It was actually always. Is NFL good for the second half of the year? You do have to keep in mind how young he still is. I know, you know, he's. I think he has room to get better, but he's not great. Like, we, you know, we took him out as a breakout and we took him out of the breakout category because it's, it's hard to at this point just say Jameis Winston's going to get everything together because of Bruce Arians. One of the things I've tried to caution myself on because I am a big believer in Bruce Arians being great for fantasy pace of play. When he was with the Cardinals, he was always near the top. So you get this offensive guy coming to a team with great weapons and you just want to put everyone's arrow up. Here's the problem. They were already a great offense last year. You don't realize that, but in all passing metrics across the board, they're pretty much top three as a team. Because you had the split between Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston, you don't look at how, you know, neither one of them finished great for fantasy because they split with each other. But now Jameis has it, maybe he will be a top end option. I'm not saying that couldn't happen. I still think he could break out. It's just hard for me to see it happening where I find the real value. The like, not just the news. And the anecdote, is the vacated targets. 38% of targets gone. You have Adam Humphries and Desean Jackson that have left a giant void that will be filled by some amalgamation of players. And I think Chris Godwin is the guy that steps into that role now that he's moving into the slot role that Bruce Arians always gets the most out of. There's, you know, been plenty of hype videos on in camp already. Him scoring touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

He's. He's, he's scoring in camp.

[Jason Moore]

He is.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you serious?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I'm impressed.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, Evans. Evans was targeted more in the red zone than anybody in football last year, pretty much. He had eight touchdowns look, the targets in Tampa, they don't. They come with the built in Jameis Winston uncertainty with all of them. This whole offense, every, every narrative is perfect if Jameis Winston's a good quarterback. And every narrative goes out the window if he's not. O.J. howard should be dominant this season. Talk about 38% vacated targets. Howard wasn't on the field for all of last year. He's a force. He should dominate this season if the offense can do what they've done.

[Jason Moore]

True breakout candidate. But you're right, it still requires James Winston to be a good quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

Chris Godwin had a game at the end of the season where he caught one of 10 targets from Jameis Winston. Do we think that Chris Godwin sucks?

[Jason Moore]

Absolutely not.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, so then that is a possible outcome week to week. That doesn't exist with a player like Drew Brees at quarterback. So maybe the team will air it out and you're going to blow things up. But you're also, you've got the other end of the spectrum of Jameis Winston, unfortunately, which is unpredictability. And it's why he's not in our breakout guarantee section of the udk. But the opportunities there for Godwin to step up and change his, his fantasy baseline as a. A Fantasy starter, yes. O.J. howard, breakout candidate. Howard's a guy that could be a top three tight end. That is not outside the realm of his outcomes.

[Jason Moore]

Agreed. I mean, last year Chris Godwin was the wide receiver 25 in fantasy scoring and half point systems. Right now he's being drafted as the wide receiver 20. I think he finishes. I 100% think he finishes better than he did last year. He only had seven touchdowns last year. It's not like it was on the back of like Calvin Ridley with 10. So I think he's got a repeatable number there and I think his target volume is going to go massively up. I think the role is good for him, the vacated targets. But he is being drafted there. He's being drafted as the wide receiver 20, which is a better finish than he had last year. So it's just a matter of how high do you think he can go? I see his ceiling as like wide receiver 15.

[Andy Holloway]

One of the. This was a very interesting. You know, in baseball, saber metrics is all the rage, right? They pay attention to a metric called wins above replacement. And we had, we had somebody send us in the. They applied the wins above replacement metric to quarterbacks last season. This was a shout out to Jeffrey Henderson, who did this. This is A huge metric in baseball and it basically evaluates how many wins a baseball player contributes to their team. And it's like one of the more dominating metrics when you apply it to quarterback position. Last year Patrick Mahomes was number one by a wide margin in wins above replacement.

[Jason Moore]

Makes sense.

[Andy Holloway]

The number two player on the list, mind you. Number three, Big Ben. Number four, Matt Ryan. Number five, Andrew Luck. Number six, Cam Newton.

[Jason Moore]

Can I take a guess?

[Andy Holloway]

You can take a guess.

[Jason Moore]

Ryan Fitzpatrick.

[Andy Holloway]

Ryan Fitzpatrick had the second best wins above replacement number.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that makes sense.

[Andy Holloway]

So it's just he's a good quarterback and he's going to start in Miami. He's going to start well, he's not going to finish. He's a starter. He's a starter, he's not a finisher. So I think that's going to wrap.

[Mike Wright]

Up today's who do you want to talk about the dirty deeds done dirt cheap in the 10th round. My man Peyton Barber.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, okay. Sorry. The running game.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Get it done.

[Mike Wright]

Look, it's gross. You don't want him on your team but he's going to be the starter. And the latest buzz, we're sifting through the buzz but it's Peyton Barber actually excited that he's going to get targets because of Bruce Arian system. It's, it's not an automatic that Bruce Aarons is going to throw to the running back a ton. Well, he doesn't throw at all because he's the coach.

[Andy Holloway]

What about Andre Ellington?

[Mike Wright]

Andre Ellington is also involved.

[Jason Moore]

But Barbers Barbers looking as good as his rookie season. Andre Ellington, that's what the word was like last year.

[Mike Wright]

Peyton Barber had 234 carries. Like that is a lot of carries. And in that time he only had 29 targets.

[Andy Holloway]

If you remember Bruce Arians with Andre Ellington though.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Andre Ellington owned third down. There was a season in Arizona where Andre Ellington started the season as the number one running back on that team. I would imagine based on. You know, I know it's a lot of buzz around Ellington but Peyton Barber by all metrics you talk about ETO Smith not being good. Payton Barber was not good on a carry by carry basis and Ellington has a proven pounce catching record. I'd be really surprised if Peyton Barber catches a bunch of passes this year.

[Mike Wright]

I know, I'm not saying a bunch but I still think he will be the primary ball carrier.

[Andy Holloway]

What about a bundle?

[Mike Wright]

So maybe a bundle. But look, 200 plus carries again for Peyton Barber is not outside the realm of possibility. When It's Ronald Jones and Andre Ellington or the other options they have. And I just, I see him, I see the reception total going up. If is he over 30 receptions. Just say it. 10th round. That's ridiculous.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you see me troll Jason on Twitter? Tell.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know if I did.

[Andy Holloway]

With Melvin Gordon signing with the Lions right after the theoretic release. Yeah, I really, really, really, really enjoyed that. It's very fun. Do you think the Lions end up bringing somebody else in at all or they got it figured out?

[Jason Moore]

I think they believe in Zach Zinner. I believe in Zach Zinner. They've got three good backs there. I think they're good.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's close this thing out. Pristine deal of the day. All right. And Michael Thomas signed New Orleans Saints Jersey yesterday on pristineauction.com sold for $58.83. You can get your own sports memorabilia. All authentic autographs, hundreds of daily auctions.

[Jason Moore]

You should get your own auction.

[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

You don't want to steal.

[Andy Holloway]

No.

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You want to get your own.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. You don't want to be left out in the cold.

[Jason Moore]

No. Make a free account. It's an auction. It doesn't cost you anything to bid. Unless you win and then you just pay what you were like, oh, I love that price. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And when you sign up, if you put in the code ballers, you do get $5 towards your first auction purchase. And it's a good time. It really is.

[Jason Moore]

It's a good time to be alive.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. NFL season coming quick. We got our live show on Saturday in Los Angeles at the Largo. We got one more live show back here in Phoenix at the end of August and piles of news in between. I know. We got another mock draft episode coming up. We're going to talk about some mid round values on some upcoming shows. And look, it's go time. I am almost, you know, 20 weeks from five or six championships in these leagues.

[Jason Moore]

Impressive.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

We'll see you next time. Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.

[Andy Holloway]

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