NFC West Breakdown + Annoying Players

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: NFC West Breakdown + Annoying Players

Release Date: July 18, 2019

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright delve deep into the intricacies of the NFC West, offering a comprehensive analysis for fantasy football enthusiasts. Additionally, they discuss players they anticipate to be sources of frustration throughout the upcoming season. Below is a structured summary capturing the key points, discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode.

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1. Annoying Players of the Upcoming Season

The hosts each shared their picks for players or situations they expect to be annoying topics in fantasy football during the season.

• Andy Holloway on Leonard Fournette ([03:35] - [05:03])

  Andy expresses frustration with Leonard Fournette, primarily due to his injury concerns and inconsistent playtime. He states:

  "The player that I am going to be annoyed talking about is Leonard Fournette. Because I don't enjoy doing the whole injury prediction thing... he pops up on the injury report with something little every week..." ([04:08])

  Andy acknowledges Fournette's potential but doubts his ability to play all 16 games, which is crucial for his fantasy value.

• Mike Wright on Kenyon Drake ([06:21] - [07:06])

  Mike anticipates frustration with Kenyon Drake, predicting frequent changes in his usage and victories that might not materialize consistently.

  "...Jason is going to come in here, six shooters drawn, firing into the air with an incredible Kenyon Drake... I think he'll be annoying because I just don't know what's going to happen in Miami." ([06:50])

• Jason Moore on Seattle Seahawks ([07:06] - [07:19])

  Jason chooses the Seattle Seahawks as his annoyance pick, highlighting the unpredictability in their fantasy contributions due to potential regressions from key players like Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett.

  "I think it's going to be a tough fantasy situation... There will be points up there in Seattle. But it's going to be obnoxious..." ([07:19])

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2. NFC West Divisional Breakdown

The hosts provide an in-depth analysis of each team within the NFC West, evaluating their prospects and key players for the upcoming season.

a. Los Angeles Rams

• Offensive Stability and Key Players ([15:27] - [24:33])

  The Rams are lauded for their consistent offensive lineup, featuring star players like Jared Goff, Brandon Cooks, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp. Andy emphasizes the value of having multiple reliable wide receivers:

  "There’s no absence of the same players that made this offense great a year ago." ([19:31])

  The running back situation remains dynamic with discussions around Todd Gurley’s role and potential regression in touchdowns. The offensive line's improvement and Sean McVay's coaching are seen as significant positives.

• Fantasy Implications ([22:02] - [26:46])

  The trio discusses the ADP (Average Draft Position) of Rams' wide receivers:

  "Cooks is 406, Woods 409, Cup 503." ([22:02])

  Jason prefers Robert Woods for consistency over Brandon Cooks, despite their similar production.

• Todd Gurley’s Impact ([26:48] - [28:06])

  Todd Gurley is recognized as an elite running back when healthy, but concerns about his efficiency against stacked defenses are raised.

  "I think he's going to end up in that top 10 category again." ([35:16])

b. Seattle Seahawks

• Running Game Strength ([28:06] - [31:06])

  The Seahawks are praised for their robust rushing attack, led by Chris Carson and Rashad Penny. Andy highlights the dual-threat nature of their backfield:

  "I would be happy to scoop up Chris Carson... and Rashad Penny and say I've got a pass-catching option." ([30:30] - [31:06])

• Fantasy Strategy ([29:36] - [31:29])

  The discussion revolves around drafting strategies for the Seahawks’ running backs, weighing the potential of Carson versus Penny.

  "I would rather have Robert Woods. I want the more consistent guy." ([23:01])

c. San Francisco 49ers

• Offensive Potential and Key Additions ([34:10] - [47:22])

  The 49ers' offense is characterized by potential growth with players like George Kittle, Dante Pettis, and Debo Samuel. Andy underscores the importance of consistency and the role of key wide receivers:

  "From a consistency standpoint, he's the only one that I can look at and get something out of." ([34:59])

  Jason brings up the transitional phase with Kyle Shanahan's coaching and the influx of new talent, suggesting potential for breakout performances.

• George Kittle’s Value ([42:47] - [43:25])

  Kittle is acknowledged as a premium tight end but faces skepticism about replicating his past performance, affecting his ADP.

  "He's not going to replicate what he did last year..." ([47:22])

d. Arizona Cardinals

• Rebuilding and Challenges ([47:03] - [56:05])

  The Cardinals are depicted as a team attempting to erase a disappointing 3-13 record from the previous year. Key challenges include a subpar offensive line and quarterback inconsistencies.

  "They run for 160 yards per game. 130 was the running back." ([29:01])

  Andy and Mike express low confidence in the team's offensive capabilities, but recognize new additions like Kyler Murray and Christian Kirk as potential upside.

• Fantasy Prospects ([50:33] - [56:05])

  Discussion revolves around draft strategies, highlighting Kyler Murray’s value as a rookie quarterback with rushing upside despite offensive line concerns.

  "Kyler Murray is worth a late seventh-round pick of inevitability." ([54:24])

---

3. Key Insights and Takeaways

• Consistency vs. Ceiling:

  The balance between consistent performers (e.g., Robert Woods) and high-ceiling players (e.g., Brandon Cooks) is crucial in draft strategies.

• Injury Concerns:

  Players prone to injuries, like Leonard Fournette and Todd Gurley, present significant risks, influencing their fantasy value.

• Offensive Line Impact:

  The improvement of offensive lines, particularly for teams like the Rams, can significantly enhance the performance and fantasy prospects of key players.

• Rookie Quarterbacks:

  Kyler Murray is identified as a potential high-value pick due to his rushing ability, despite historical data suggesting rookie QBs may struggle with wide receiver production.

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4. Conclusions

The Fantasy Footballers provide a nuanced breakdown of the NFC West, highlighting both opportunities and pitfalls for fantasy managers. Teams like the Rams and Seahawks present reliable options with their stable rosters, while the 49ers offer potential breakout candidates amid uncertainties. The Cardinals, undergoing a rebuilding phase, offer late-round value with players like Kyler Murray but come with their set of challenges.

The discussion on annoying players underscores the importance of managing expectations and being prepared for weekly frustrations with inconsistent performers and injury-prone stars. Overall, the episode equips listeners with strategic insights to navigate the upcoming fantasy football season effectively.

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Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway ([03:35]):

  "The player that I am going to be annoyed talking about is Leonard Fournette..."

• Jason Moore ([07:19]):

  "I think it's going to be a tough fantasy situation."

• Mike Wright ([35:42]):

  "Russell Wilson is an efficient quarterback. Period, End of sentence."

---

This comprehensive analysis from the Fantasy Footballers offers valuable perspectives for fantasy football enthusiasts aiming to optimize their draft strategies and week-to-week management within the NFC West framework.

Transcript

[Jason Moore]

This is hall of Fame and Marshall Falk.

[Mike Wright]

And you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome in. Good to be around these parts.

[Jason Moore]

The announcer was partially correct because today we are coming to you from a meat locker because our last show.

[Mike Wright]

A real Goldilocks situation going on here.

[Jason Moore]

Last show we're in the deserts of Arizona, can be very hot. And Brooks thought we would lean into that for. For Tuesday's show. And he put us in a sweat.

[Mike Wright]

Lodge where Jason made four notes on.

[Andy Holloway]

His board throughout the show. You know, we have this board to take important notes, very important player stuff, you know, and my only notes that I could write down through the show was something like, hot. It's so hot. I'm so hot.

[Jason Moore]

I had to be cut away from my leather seat.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they've been completely replaced.

[Jason Moore]

And now he's just like, well, fine, Mr. Fancy Pants. Deal with this. Sub thermal temperatures.

[Mike Wright]

The Yetis are out in force. No, it's difficult in Arizona. It's 115 today and you got a pre. Cool our studio, but you know, it's blowing. Mike is sitting right in the. In the vortex.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

You're gonna be alright.

[Jason Moore]

I'll power through.

[Mike Wright]

Well, your takes are normally quite cold.

[Andy Holloway]

Very fair, very fair.

[Jason Moore]

If you hear chattering or clicking, that's just my teeth. All right, fear not.

[Mike Wright]

You just thought you'd wait for the show to start to put bricks on blast.

[Jason Moore]

Now your audio system. Do not adjust.

[Mike Wright]

All right, we have the NFC west on the show today. The divisional breakdown. We appreciate each and every one of you listening. Wherever, Whenever you're listening. Thank you for the reviews, the subscriptions on Apple, podcasts on Google, podcasts on Spotify, ad free on Stitcher Premium. Wherever you're listening, we appreciate you. And we do still have a giveaway right now. The Pat Mahomes signed jersey. We haven't given it away yet.

[Jason Moore]

Not yet.

[Mike Wright]

It is being kept under lock and key.

[Jason Moore]

Well, you've seen National Treasure, like what they had to go through to get the Declaration of Independence.

[Mike Wright]

I have not seen that movie. But you haven't seen.

[Jason Moore]

That movie is a national treasure.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know if you're right about that.

[Jason Moore]

It's great.

[Mike Wright]

Nicolas Cage is the starring actor of that film.

[Jason Moore]

It's Nic Cage. It's very Pulp. What's the Pulp comics? Very Indiana Jones inspired.

[Mike Wright]

You're a big fan.

[Andy Holloway]

It's great.

[Mike Wright]

All right. Today is Thursday, July 18 here's the quick question for today's episode of the Fantasy Footballers. Name a player or situation that you believe you'll be annoyed to talk about throughout the upcoming season. This happens every year. I would say. Last offseason we were very annoyed to constantly be talking about Ezekiel Elliott's suspension and concerns about those things. Maybe this offseason it's been Tyreek or some of those player arguments we've been in during season.

[Jason Moore]

Last year was left. When's it coming back?

[Mike Wright]

Right?

[Jason Moore]

Every freaking week. When's it coming back?

[Andy Holloway]

Does that mean that in season this year is going to be Melvin Gordon?

[Jason Moore]

It could be. No, it could be.

[Mike Wright]

Some of my people that I've been talking to have told me he may play football this year, but for what team?

[Andy Holloway]

All right, I'll lead it off here. The player that I am going to be annoyed talking about is Leonard Fournette. Because I don't enjoy doing the whole injury prediction thing and I feel like that's really the analysis that matters the most when it comes to Leonard Fournette. Say what you will about his efficiency or his inefficiency, but he don't want.

[Jason Moore]

To talk about him. Actually, maybe he's not that good.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, no, because for fantasy football, he has been that good. For fantasy football we've seen him as a top 10 back before. He gets enough volume. So I don't care if he's efficient at getting his fantasy points so long as he gets his fantasy points. But he's such, you know, one of these guys that he's, he's missed a game with suspicion. He's missed games with injury.

[Mike Wright]

He's going to pop up on the injury report with something little every week and you'll be going, oh, is he going to play? Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And then if he does. But you know, I also take this as this, this upcoming draft season that we're about to enjoy for fantasy football. And during that draft season, I hate talking about Leonard Fournette because it's like, look, if I knew he was going to play his full set of snaps for 16 games, I think he's actually, he's going to be a huge volume back. He's going to get enough work to matter for fantasy and he'll be a good player. But I don't believe he plays 16 games.

[Jason Moore]

What I forgot about Fournette, I knew he's been a sub 4.0 guy. His rookie year it was at 3.9. He had a 90 yard rush I totally forgot about.

[Mike Wright]

So.

[Jason Moore]

So he padded his numbers with one rush for 90 yards and still could not surpass the 4.0. That's a feat.

[Mike Wright]

When I brought his name up with the James Conner discussions we had at the live show, it was in the context of he started so on fire in his one great season where you said he finished the top 10 back that has been emblazoned on fantasy owners brains since that time at what his potential is. And so if you're dealing with injuries with him or an offense we're not sure about, there was no offense worse in football. In terms of touchdowns, the amount of drives per touchdown. We talk about how bad the Cardinals were last year and total points per game. They were still better than the Jacksonville Jaguars in terms of impossible. I think it took them 8.2 drives per touchdown last year. And if you want perspective on that, the I do the Rams 3.3 drives per touchdown. So it was not easy. Nick Foles is the answer, right?

[Jason Moore]

Well, I've no okay.

[Mike Wright]

I think I'm going to be annoyed to talk about Kenyon Drake because I think I'm going to end up in a situation where frequently, maybe once out of every three to four weeks, Jason is going to come in here, six shooters drawn, firing into the air with an incredible Kenyan Drake in Yosemite Sam. Just did you see that? And then I'm going to say yeah, I saw it and I'm going to be really annoyed about your victory lap. And then, and then a couple weeks are going to go by again and then we won't get it.

[Andy Holloway]

We won't mention those weeks.

[Mike Wright]

We won't mention those weeks and we'll be back. So I think he'll be annoying because I just don't know what's going to happen in Miami. They had the worst odds for the, for a Super bowl celebration this year, 300 to 1 on yesterday's or on Tuesday's show.

[Jason Moore]

All right. I'm not going to get into it too much right here in the quick question because we are in fact covering this team. We were breaking down the NFC west, but my answer is Seattle. I think it's going to be tough.

[Mike Wright]

That's interesting.

[Jason Moore]

It's going to be a tough fantasy situation. And with between the running backs, Russell Wilson, we're going to be talking about some touchdown regression. Tyler Lockett will probably talk about some touchdown regression. Things are just wild up there in Seattle. There will be, there will be points. That's the problem. There will be fantasy points up there. But it's going to be, it's going to be obnoxious if we talk about.

[Mike Wright]

It during the season. I won't be annoyed if we talk about this guy.

[Jason Moore]

We won't, we won't be talking. We won't be talking about, look, we.

[Mike Wright]

Will be talking about Will Disney. We'll bring it up.

[Jason Moore]

Such a feel good story. If this guy can come back from that injury, I just, we'll talk about it today. That's a never tell me the odds.

[Mike Wright]

By the way, on yesterday or on Tuesday's show. Jason, I think you brought up, has there ever been a 27 year old breakout running back? Someone pointed out to me Michael Turner, the year when he came over from the Chargers to Atlanta, he broke out at 27. He was a superstar in Atlanta's offense.

[Andy Holloway]

So that has been done before.

[Jason Moore]

Hold on. Now that I'm actually thinking about it, how old was the depth Chart assassin himself? Mr. Fred Jackson? He was like 33 when he broke out. It was very, that's hyperbolic. But it was very late.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, Fred Jackson, I think Fred Jackson just had one of those prolonged successful interim parts.

[Andy Holloway]

I think the big difference between Michael Turner and Damian Williams is that when Michael Turner was behind Ladanian Tomlinson, everybody said this guy's going to be special when he gets his chance. And then he went and was special. Whereas while Damian Williams has been behind everybody. Well, I feel like, I think Fred.

[Jason Moore]

Jackson was 28 when he had his breakout game.

[Mike Wright]

That makes sense. I feel like you have to give Damian Williams a break and obviously you have in your rankings. But the reason I say that is because the same coach that you bemoan frequently for stifling the talent of Kenyon Drake was responsible for the snap counts for Damian Williams. Therefore maybe he just doesn't know what he's got.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure, I mean that's fair. I'm talking about Mr. B. Hole.

[Mike Wright]

You remember.

[Andy Holloway]

I do remember. I do remember.

[Mike Wright]

All right, a quick reminder. Ultimate DraftKit.com A dollar of every UDK sold goes directly to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, our partners this off season. If you need some help getting ready for your draft, check that out atultimatedraftkit.com we are going to get into some news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league presented by Sleeper.

[Mike Wright]

All right, so before we jump into the N, a little follow up from Tuesday's show. Yahoo's Charles Robinson says Zeke has to report by August 6th in order to receive an accrued season towards free agency. Mike, this goes to some of the things that you said. This is more blustery. You have a lot less control in this situation, right?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's, he's under contract for two more years, which it's pretty rare for an NFL team to start negotiating you with with you at that point. Point. And he, he has to be there or he's going to be in big trouble for his further contract negotiations.

[Mike Wright]

The Titans official website expects Delaney Walker to be ready for Week one.

[Andy Holloway]

I hate hearing stuff like that. I just, I'm just throwing this out there. Like, I mean, that's good. You want him there for Week one. But when Week one is the, is the expectation and it's not play, it's not preseason, is not training camp, it's like he's not going to be ready for that. But don't worry, don't worry. We won't miss any real games. At the very least from a fantasy perspective, you know that, that, that's the Baldwin style. Like he's not going to be ready till Week one. But if he's not, you know, that's just an arbitrary date that they're picking because the games count then, not because that's the date that his injury should be healed by.

[Mike Wright]

Well, and it's ironic because Joni Smith, who had the opportunity after Delaney Walker hurt himself, he's not expected to be ready by Week one. He's questionable. Walker could, if he's active, just walk into a great role.

[Jason Moore]

Nice one. How much, how much training camp and preseason would Delaney Walker actually participate in?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I thought you say, does he need an injury?

[Jason Moore]

No, that's what he needs. Zero. I think if he was for, if he was fully healthy, they would be getting him in shape, which I would prefer to hear about that. But he's not going to take very many actual life snaps.

[Mike Wright]

The tight end landscape in fantasy is rough. That's why we talk about Chris Herndon. Suspension length. Nobody has him at the top of the list, but it's rough. You need options. So it's interesting.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

Two follow ups on the Tuesday show. We talked about the AFC west, talked about the Denver Broncos and a couple bits of news came out since then. If you haven't heard that show, go back download, listen to it. A lot of breakdown of the Broncos and that whole division. Speaking Wednesday, Emmanuel Sanders says he's definitely not going to be full go from the jump in training camp. He's going to be a monitor situation. I don't think anybody expects him to be 100% when camp begins. Jason, you brought this up. It's going to be a process. But he says he's not Going to be ready to go from the jump. And then the Denver Post suggested that Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman will form a 50.50timeshare this season, noting that Lindsay hasn't run a single play in front of the new coaching staff. We already knew that. And that Freeman. Royce Freeman has hogged first team reps because, of course, if Lindsey's not there, who would? But this is the whole point of the conversation this last six months with.

[Jason Moore]

Philip Lindsay, and this is just the nature of humanity. The coaches can go back and watch what Phil Lindsay did on tape last year, but this is happening right in front of them right now. It's their scheme. If Lindsay doesn't get in there soon, how is it not anything but a 50?

[Andy Holloway]

50 as an UN. As an undrafted player who doesn't have the draft capital, the money being paid to him, forcing the issue to get the carries. It was last off season, it was last training camp where Philip Lindsay really showed the coaching staff. Wow. There's something special here. So. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

Wow.

[Mike Wright]

Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

Awesome.

[Mike Wright]

Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

So if. If you know, if that's not even.

[Jason Moore]

Sure what's being referenced right now. Was walking. I thought you were doing the room.

[Mike Wright]

If you go back to Hamilton. First of all, I'm not doing it again. Second of all, if you go back to the original tape, you'll hear him. I thought I was walking. Thank you.

[Andy Holloway]

I thought it was.

[Jason Moore]

Was it Tommy Wuzzo?

[Mike Wright]

You guys just followed up so fast, it distorted how great the first one.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, hi, Mark.

[Mike Wright]

Wow.

[Jason Moore]

You see, that's what I thought you were doing.

[Mike Wright]

All right, we'll monitor. We'll see what happens.

[Jason Moore]

We'll monitor Andy's impersonations again.

[Mike Wright]

Any of these conversations around Lindsay are not an indictment on the talent, the ability, and what he brings to the table. This is a fantasy football show. The breakdown for this team, it's going to be better off with Freeman and Lindsey both being involved. And if we thought Freeman was a bum, we would be fine with Lindsay just stealing every snap away. I don't think Freeman's a bum, so 5050 is what I'm expecting. Lindsay's probably going to keep dropping, though. Yesterday his ADP was 408. Okay. If you think he's going to score more fantasy points than Royce Freeman. 408 versus 801 or whatever. Freeman's going at Lindsay. Still a steal there.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. If it is 50 50, that doesn't mean that they have the same fantasy points, just the same opportunity.

[Mike Wright]

Good point.

[Andy Holloway]

Philip Lindsay is. Is the more explosive player.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

We saw last Year, he's. He's on a per touch basis, outscore Royce.

[Mike Wright]

All right, check out the sleeper app. Not just the best breaking news, but the best platform for modern fantasy players in general. Download the sleeper app. Today we thank them for sponsoring our news segment. And let's go ahead and get into it.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's get divisional.

[Mike Wright]

All right, we're talking through the NFC West. We're breaking it down. Last year, the Rams, 13 and 3. The Seahawks battled their way to 10 and 6. The 49ers were 4 and 12. The Cardinals were 3 and 13. Cardinals did the mirror of the Rams record last year. We're very proud of here in the desert. Yes. The black mirror.

[Jason Moore]

It's no good.

[Mike Wright]

No. So let's go ahead and get into this offense now.

[Jason Moore]

Mike, it's my new best friend.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that's right.

[Mike Wright]

Jared Garf. Mike, you had a chance to snap a photo on the red carpet of the ESPYs.

[Jason Moore]

I did.

[Mike Wright]

With your pink. Your pink outfit.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

My pink outfit was sensational. Jared Goff was very impressed with it.

[Mike Wright]

Who are you wearing again?

[Jason Moore]

Amazon.

[Mike Wright]

So.

[Jason Moore]

And look, I had to take the opportunity. I'm talking to Jared Goff. I'm talking to the quarterback of Todd Gurley's team. And I had took that chance to ask about Todd Gurley. I said, all right, Jared, how's the knee doing?

[Mike Wright]

There's nothing more. Hold on, hold on. There's nothing more condescending than him not being the quarterback of the Rams, but being the quarterback of Tom Gurley's team as his, like, monitoring quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

The rants.

[Mike Wright]

But I'm saying, no, I know what you meant.

[Andy Holloway]

He is.

[Jason Moore]

He should be good friends with Todd Gurley. And I said, how's the knee, Jared? And he kind of had a sheepish smile on his face. And he said. He said, it's good, man. I just took him fifth overall in my fantasy draft. And I said, yeah, but, Jared, how's his knee doing? And he just kept saying, good. His answer to a lot of things was, good. Then I asked about Darrell Henderson. How is the rookie acclimating to the new system? Good. I said, okay, well, how's Darrell Henderson's pass protection? That's when his face broke. That's when the smile kind of grew to the. From sheepish. You know, I'm just answering questions to an uncomfortable. I gotta. I gotta maintain it's good. Followed up quickly by him saying, I gotta get out of here before I say something I'm not allowed to say, so take that for what you will. Firsthand account of me speaking with Mr. Garf with God.

[Mike Wright]

Now, King Godfrey took Gurley at 5. He said, now, was that a Rams only draft? Would he have gone at five in a Rams only draft?

[Jason Moore]

But what I did ask, I said, how much money is on the line for this one? And he said, it's actually none. Which counterintuitively, actually spoke more to me that maybe he does believe Gurley's going to be okay because Jared Goff doesn't need to win money if he's in a league with his friends. And this is pride on the line.

[Mike Wright]

Well, it's tough. Look, this team, one of the best in football on offense last year, third in rushing yards per game, fifth in passing yards per game, brought it up earlier. They scored a touchdown every 3.3 drives. This is one of the only teams in football where we asked the question, can they sustain three top 20 wide receivers and an elite running back and an elite quarterback? This offense isn't really changing at all. That is, we've talked about the Chargers being kind of a stabilizing force in the AFC west, in the NFC West. Look, this is the same offense, the same players. It's Brandon Cooks, Robert Woods, Cooper Cup, Josh Reynolds, Gerald Everett and Higby Gurley, right? You lose C.J. anderson, you draft Darrell Henderson, and it's all the same. There's no absence of the same players that made this offense great a year ago. That stability generally lends itself towards expectation, a certainty that that production will happen again. Right?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it does. And when you combine that with a great offensive mind like Sean McVay, I think we can confident. I mean, you know, most people look at this season, say the Rams are going to have a really good offense. I think that that's, you know, an obvious bet. They will have a great offense. I think they're going to have a great running back production. Regardless of who it is. I mean, a la C.J. anderson, Week 14 and 15 or 15 and 16 last year, winning people championships, rolling off 20 carries, 23 carries for 167, 132 yards, whoever the running back is going to be great. The question is, is it going to be Todd Gurley? With Todd Gurley or without Todd Gurley, The Rams are going to be great. Like, I don't have fears of, okay, if Todd Gurley, his knee starts acting up and they can only get him, you know, 10 carries a game, if that. Is this going to hurt the Rams offense? No, we've seen it. We saw them. I mean, here's their points When Gurley was was out, they scored 31, 48, 30, 23. Like they're putting up points. So that means the wide receiver cores and Goff himself to me are where the real value is on this team.

[Mike Wright]

There are some question marks if you look at last season like a boxing match. The majority of the season the Rams were just smooth moving around the ring. Everything came easy to them. But what the fans got to see last was a punch in the mouth, three points. Getting caught by Belichick in the Super Bowl. I think we understand that that was. Look, it's one game. Gurley on the sideline a lot towards the end of the season. Cooper cup wasn't a part of the active roster at that point in the season. I still don't know if I believe that this team can is the same without Gurley that it is with Gurley. Over the course of an entire season. It's one thing to say, hey, a guy with fresh lace and come in into an offense that's moving and doing what it's doing. I obviously expect them to be a great offense. They also, those three wide receivers, they're out on the field all the time together, right. They're never. They're pretty much out there 70 plus percent of the time. They run 11 personnel more than anybody in football. So you're not really having to pick and choose who's going to be the starter and who's not going to be out on the field, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And I believe all three are of value right now. As crazy as that sounds, I want any one of those three wide receivers.

[Mike Wright]

So can I give you their ADP?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

As you continue. Cooks is 406, Woods 409, Cup 503.

[Andy Holloway]

That's just awesome. I mean that's awesome. Those are three consistent, high producing wide receivers. It's weird that they're on the same team. People are worried about the girly and the effects of what that happens to the Rams.

[Jason Moore]

I'm worried about the acl.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

Talk to me about Cooper Cup. Are you really taking him at 503.

[Andy Holloway]

In the fifth round? I've seen him drop way later than that as well in the fifth round. I think it's an interesting conversation because there's other guys in that round that are also valuable. But he's, I mean he was the number one right. When healthy Cooper Cup.

[Jason Moore]

Because he's the touchdown guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. He is the big red zone threat for them. He's got a great rapport with Goff.

[Mike Wright]

And a small caveat there, like he's not the number one by design in their offense. You're talking from a fantasy perspective.

[Andy Holloway]

From a fantasy perspective because of the red zone work, Goff was the guy who was going to lead the way. Who would you say is the number one? Would you say that's Cooks or Woods? Because I would say Brandon.

[Mike Wright]

It's Brandon Cooks to me for sure. By the way, cup was the wide receiver two in fantasy through the first five weeks of last year. Speaking to your point from a fantasy production standpoint, from the ultimate draft kit, Matthew Betts, who gives the injury notes for the ultimate draft Kit, says once training camp kicks off, cup will be nine months from surgery. So he has a chance to be ready for week one. He doesn't expect him to be able to produce at that level until halfway through the year. At the, at the kind of level you saw last year.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Mike, you know, when you talk about Brandon Cooks, I mean any he's been Mr. Consistent. He's not going to be a top five finisher. But I don't think any of these three are going to be a top five finish.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And I'm not sure which way I lean between Brandon Cooks and Robert woods, who's the one on the team. I don't even think the team looks at it that way. They're just, they play different roles in the offense. But between the two of them, I would rather have Robert Woods. I want the more consistent guy. I know that Cooks has the ceiling that Robert woods doesn't have every once in a while to explode, but Robert woods is just, he is reliable man. He will not let your team down.

[Andy Holloway]

On an individual game. If they were both going to have just a monster their best game, Cooks ceiling is higher. But on the season I don't think Cooks, his ceiling is any higher than woods and woods is so much more consistent. In an offense like that, you want the targets, right? I mean last year both played 16 games. You had 130 targets to Robert Woods, 117 targets to Brandon Cooks. The consistency rating of Robert woods is a guy who you don't draft as your number one. Even your number two wide receiver. You could get him as your third if you, if you started with a stud back and went three wide receivers and he is as consistent as they come.

[Mike Wright]

They're both. I mean it's kind of a weird situation. You're not playing the value game with them. They're drafted about the now you're picking.

[Jason Moore]

Which one you want unless you or.

[Mike Wright]

Do I pick it up even like total end of season production is almost identical. 80 receptions versus 86, 1204 versus 12, 19, 5 and 6 touchdowns. So you are. Is there any situation where you want Cooks over Woods in your mind? Jason, because of the.

[Andy Holloway]

None.

[Mike Wright]

You always want the consistency, but you're not going to get the top end games from woods as often.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. If you look at their two, you know, go to the ultimate draft kit, look at the 2018 consistency charts on a week in week basis, it's a really easy way to visualize these players. You go, okay, they both finished about the same. Same similar stat lines. Both great players, but one was just every single week helping your team and the other had his big weeks and then had his bad weeks. Ask yourself, do you want Amari Cooper? You know, and obviously Cooks is not to that degree of hot and cold, but that's where if those guys are going next to each other and they're going to both finish great, but one is going to be the more consistent first read target for golf. That's the guy I want. And Robert woods is just disrespected. Man, he's great.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I mean, I don't know. Isn't he going higher than the other two wide receivers? Didn't you just say no, Cooks is.

[Jason Moore]

Three points higher three spots and also.

[Mike Wright]

Right than the other two guys.

[Andy Holloway]

It's Cooks.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, you said Cooks is. Yeah, sorry.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Three spot higher than one.

[Jason Moore]

He's going Cook's Woods Cup.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I don't. You still got a chip on your shoulder for Woods?

[Andy Holloway]

I've got a chip on my shoulder for Woods.

[Mike Wright]

He's not getting drafted two rounds behind the other two guys.

[Andy Holloway]

No, he's getting two drafted two rounds behind where he's going to finish.

[Mike Wright]

Well, that, that you could be right about. In 2015, Cooks was 14th, 26th. He was 9. Then he was 12th, then he was 13th. He's going to be in that range, which is like not really the one you want for your team.

[Jason Moore]

Right, right.

[Mike Wright]

But a wonderful two.

[Jason Moore]

An interesting little nugget here. I wanted to bring up about the running backs and Todd Gurley. This is not to take away from Todd Gurley the player I think as far as running backs go, he is among the elites in the league right now. But we've talked about frequently the NFL next gen stats, running backs, how often do they face eight defenders in the box? You know, talking about how Royce Freeman had the second highest percentage of his runs at 36%. You know where Todd Gurley is on this list?

[Mike Wright]

It's got to be at the bottom, third fewest. Of course, you can't.

[Jason Moore]

8.2% of the time they're able to stack the box against Todd Gurley, which is why they can be. So if you can't say we're selling out to stop Todd Gurley, then they're not going to sell out to stop Darrell Henderson or whoever is in there.

[Andy Holloway]

C.J. anderson went on.

[Mike Wright]

You're saying it's a very comfortable situation for any running back?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Rams running back, regardless of who it is, will put up real fantasy points.

[Mike Wright]

I was reading this morning, the Rams had. They had a first down on 35% of their plays, like on first downs. So they produce, you know, they're passing the ball on first down all the time. You can't stack the box against Gurley. It's a good point.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. It's play design. Sean McVay is a better offensive coach than you.

[Mike Wright]

Wrap it around to finish the Rams. Gerald Everett, any chance to break out this season at tight end?

[Andy Holloway]

No. Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Minimal.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I want you to weigh in here. Since we were split.

[Mike Wright]

No, I don't think so. Not with the offense being exactly the same. Not with 1.4% vacated targets, which we believe is probably all of the targets that went to C.J. anderson. No team has a more consistent target expectation than the Rams going into the new year. Offensive line supposed to be the rank six by the huddle. So let's talk about the Seattle Seahawks. Yes, the Seahawks. 10 and 6 last season. I want to emphasize this is a running football team. You know it, but do you know it the way these numbers know it?

[Jason Moore]

If you don't know, now you know.

[Mike Wright]

All right, the Seahawks last season, 2092 rushing yards. Mind you, that is running backs. That is not rolling Russell Wilson into it. The Rams, the 49ers, the Saints and Broncos were behind them. They ran for 160 yards per game. 130 was the running back. So 30 of that was Russell. This team wants to run, run, run some more. There is more than enough opportunity for multiple running backs to have top tier fantasy value.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Chris Carson, Rashad Penny, we want to split them up mentally. We want to pick a favorite. Maybe the answer is both.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it very well could be both. When I was doing my rankings at the beginning of the season or the beginning of the off season, I took a look. You know, we're not putting players in order. We're actually stating out the entire team and looking at all their matchups and everything. And. And at the end, I looked at where I had These guys in my rankings and I was shocked that I had them, Chris Carson and Rashad Penny back to back as far as their finish on the season. Because while I still give the lion share to Chris Carson, who, if you don't remember how, how much he got the ball when he was healthy, he would have topped Zeke on total carries, you know, if he played a full 16 games. So he's going to have the lion's share there. But on a pass catching basis, I think Rashad Penny has the skills to do that. You have Mike Davis. Mike Davis last year had 42 targets, 112 rushing attempts. Those are gone. And you have Chris Carson with a current injury and an injury history. So I think both backs are good picks. I'd be happy to scoop up Chris Carson and hope I've got, you know, a lead dog and I'd be happy to scoop up Rashad Penny and say I've got a pass catching option who's a weekly start and if, if Chris Carson goes down, which we've seen him do several times, could be a league winner.

[Jason Moore]

Would you rather in the fourth round though, knowing that you like both of these guys? There's. There currently is a two round difference between Chris Carson and Rashad Penny. They're both going at the back of their respective rounds. Fourth round, six round. Would you rather take somebody else in that fourth round that you really like and then just reach around?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I would.

[Mike Wright]

Whoa, now I had my face perked up.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, you got to go to YouTube for that one. The YouTube on that one is so special right now. YouTube.com fantasy footballers wants to know if.

[Mike Wright]

You'Re willing to reach around. Are you willing to reach?

[Andy Holloway]

I am willing to. To. I'm willing to reach two rounds, I would say, just to be safe.

[Mike Wright]

Just to be safe. So you are.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So. No, no, no, no one. I just had to. This is all just wordsmith here. Here's the reality. So like I say, Chris Carson could be a value. He certainly could be a value in the fourth. That being said, other great players are in the fourth round. I mean, we just talked about some of those wide receivers that are in the fourth round. I mean, you tell me if Robert woods and Chris Carson are there. I'm going Robert woods all day, two rounds later at the back of the six to be able to get Rashad Penny. I'm very happy to do that, but it's a roster construction thing, right? If you start with wide receivers, I think in the fourth round, Chris Carson isn't necessarily a bad Pick is my point.

[Mike Wright]

There was no, there were no other running backs in football that finished three consecutive weeks to end the year in the top seven. And that's what Chris Carson did at the end of last year and thank goodness for it. That was like a deposit that he's able to cash in on for my injury doubts or like concerns about being usurped. I'm thankful that he was so good to finish the year so that I could have confidence in him. I think both players are going to be very valuable. I believe that Pete Carroll has a great trust in Chris Carson.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

And I think you're going to see both players with huge opportunities because obviously Pete Carroll invested in Penny in the top of the first round. But let's talk about more of this offense. 17% vacated targets. Doug Baldwin retired Tyler Lockett hard Lockett, DK Metcalf, David Moore, Jaron Brown, Will Disley. These are some of the pass catchers that could step up and take some of that. I'm concerned about predictability. I'm concerned that Mike will be 100% right from his quick question where we will be coming in and you will be chasing fantasy points in the passing game. Maybe outside of Tyler Lockett, I think Tyler Lockett may be able to give you enough if they're moving him around in the formation. Doug Baldwin's not there. Lockett should be consistent to some degree. That might be saying Tyler Lockett's a wide receiver two, three fringe guy all year long, but from a consistency standpoint, he's the only one that I can, I think I can look at and get something out of 504 is his draft spot right now. That's pretty high.

[Andy Holloway]

It's high, but he is, he is. You know, look at reception perception for Tyler Lockett. Take the quarterback, take the passing offense out, even fantasy out and just say, is he by himself a good wide receiver? Average, above average. He's great. He is actually a super talented wide receiver. He's got a super talented quarterback. He's got all the opportunity now that Doug Baldwin is completely out of the way. The only hardship here is that they don't throw the ball a lot. I am going to take the number one wide receiver for Russell Wilson, who is a great wide receiver. I'm not taking any of the other wide receivers. I'm sure DK Metcalf will have an awesome long bomb touchdown or two. But you know, I've got to only rely on the number one guy. That's Tyler Lockett. I am, I know, I know you guys aren't as high as Lockett as I.

[Mike Wright]

You're at, you're at wide receiver 20 right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Mike is at 22, I'm at 23. So we're not, we're not burying him. He can win you a week, that is for sure.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, we saw last year, obviously his, his touchdown numbers were out of control. Yeah, it's not going to, it's not going to stick there. But he's, he's been a guy that obviously has dealt with injuries in the past, was not the lead dog on the team and you know, he's a 70 target guy in the past. I don't see him staying at 70 targets this year.

[Jason Moore]

That's the big question. Where, where are you projecting his target volume to go? Because if he, if he's used similarly, then he will be. But he will bust. Absolutely.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. If he ends up with 70 targets, I agree that he will bust. I've got him at 95 targets right now.

[Mike Wright]

We cannot leave the SE without talking about Russell Wilson, mostly because, Jason, you have him at QB5, I have him at QB8, and Mike has him absolutely shellacked at QB16. Yes, I have. I've reached the point and I guess Jason, you have too. We can talk and talk and talk about efficiency metrics and what's sustainable for a quarterback, but at the end of the day, and this is something that any statistician, analytical person, you know, for me, when I look at numbers, it's hard for me not to look at the fact that every situation is unique. Russell Wilson is an efficient quarterback. Period, End of sentence. That's what he is in the NFL. He is always going to be efficient. He's going to make the most of the attempts he has. He was one of the few players, I mean, he was a top 12 quarterback 62% of the time last year. There's only a handful of guys that could do that. I tend to just believe he's going to end up in that top 10 category again. I don't know which one of you guys want to talk?

[Andy Holloway]

Based on nothing but data, historical modeling, looking at the average NFL quarterback, those things, Russell Wilson should suck this year. But Russell Wilson is great. His rookie year, he was the number 10 quarterback. He followed that up by being the number 8 quarterback, the number 3, the number 3, the number 11, the number 1 quarterback in fantasy football last year, the number 9. He's just going to get the job done. That's my belief. Like at some point I'm much more on Andy's side. At some point you have to weigh both the analytics and the averages. Along with the specialty of the second.

[Mike Wright]

Mahomes puts up six straight years of 40 or more. I'm just going to concede that he's a 40 or more guy.

[Jason Moore]

Sure. But that's a pretty large sample size. The problem with Russell Wilson is it's not just you're betting against, you're betting against regression, you're betting against the analytics, you're betting against historical like very high level history. Since the year 2000, there's been eight, only eight times that a quarterback with over 150 attempts has sustained that 8% touchdown rate. And I went through all of them and where did they go to the next year? Peyton Manning drops 2% 3% the following years of his outrageous touchdown percent years. Nick Foles, his 2013 season was awesome. He dropped four.

[Mike Wright]

Who is the first name?

[Jason Moore]

Peyton Manning. Yes. And he's the only one who, he's on this list twice. So Nick Foles saw his touchdown percentage drop 4%. Tom Brady, technically he saw his touchdown percent drop 8.7% but that's because he's got, he got hurt and I won't hold that against him. But the actual following up season to his monster year dropped nearly four points. Aaron Rodgers dropped two points. DeSean Watson dropped four points. Those are the times, the only other times that people have had that 8% touchdown rate in their following season, aside from Patrick Mahomes, because we don't have data on him.

[Mike Wright]

I'm not going to dispute the data, but can you concede the fact that based on his historical finishes, Russell Wilson has the ability because he has like three or four special skills. Like if he was a video game character, he's got like three power ups. He can compensate for an off. You know, he, maybe he's not hyper efficient, but maybe he runs for another 150 this year than he did last year. That's where I look at him and I say, you know, I'm just going.

[Andy Holloway]

To believe, trust the player. Right.

[Mike Wright]

He's going to end up in that because 16 would be the worst finish of his career by a great degree. Now you're not saying he necessarily will finish there. You'll just draft 15 guys ahead of him.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And look last year what he did with the passing attempts that he actually had, you give him literally his, his career touchdown percent which is very high. What you're saying about Russell Wilson is true. But last year also bumped that up. So his career average is now 6% every 6% of his throws, he throws a touchdown, you give him that really inflated number last year, he would have been right around there, quarterback 15, quarterback 16. And you wouldn't even be. People would be furious and we would not even be talking about him. It's worth put up a crazy outlier season.

[Andy Holloway]

It's definitely worth bringing up for sure, because, and I know we've talked at this at length, but the reality is, while he's been since 2012, a quarterback, one every single year since he's been in the league, last year was a switch back to a different style of football. And that's the only year of data that we have with that, that kind of target volume, running the ball that much to that degree. And that's when he had that super efficiency. So a lot of variables out there. That's where I trust the player.

[Mike Wright]

All right, rapid round closeout question for the Seahawks.

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Mike Wright]

Is DK Metcalf going to be a fantasy value in any capacity this year? Are you going. Is he going to be started for fantasy teams more than 50% of the weeks?

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. The 49ers, we need to talk about the 49ers. Last year it was a, well, it was a rotating door at quarterback. Kyle Shanahan, you know, he suffered the way that Gruden has suffered in Washington, injuries at the running back position, at the quarterback position, at the wide receiver position. You can be a genius, but if you don't have all the tools in your tool shed, it makes it more difficult. We'll see if he can get it done this year. Jimmy G coming back, Jimmy Hanselm, healthy, Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson, and then like 46 other running backs in the fold in San Francisco. We'll try to wade through that a little bit. And then we've talked, I mean, we've talked quite a bit about the 49ers in general. George Kittle won a lot of leagues for people last year. Right now he's going in the third round of fantasy drafts towards the back half of it. Tevin Coleman, the big off season addition at running back, one that we weren't expecting to happen, but made sense because Kyle Shanahan. Kyle Shanahan has a history with Tevin Coleman From Atlanta, Jerick McKinnon coming back from injury, and then they just like replenished their wide receiver core. Outside of Dante Pettis coming back, who I know all of us really like the prognosis, the projection for Dante Pettis, but You got Debo Samuel in the second round, you got Jalen Hurd in the third round and then Marquis Goodwin coming back from injury. So this is an offense where I think if you had to pick one word to describe it, potential.

[Jason Moore]

That's a great word. Yeah, it's because it's all there. It's similar to what I was talking about. Seattle, there will be points. I think it's a little easier to navigate this. So where they're going to go, we all really, really like Dante Pettis. I do want to start the conversation though with George Kittle because he's kind of the, the new hotness going at the back of the third round. He's the currently the highest drafted player from San Francisco. Want to travel into the time machine a little bit last year, do you guys remember who the number two target was for the San Francisco 49ers over.

[Mike Wright]

The course of the season?

[Jason Moore]

Total target volume over the course of the season?

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to guess Trent Taylor.

[Jason Moore]

That's not the worst guess, but that is not correct. The answer is Kendrick bourne, who had 66 targets compared to the number one target on the team, George Kittle with 136 targets. That's not happening again, not with Dante Pettis playing a full season and reloading at the wide receiver position for this draft. Very specifically Debo Samuel, who's a sensational wide receiver. And then Mark, we don't even talk about Marquis Goodwin.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean he's jumping off of elephants catching footballs.

[Mike Wright]

He's very Health. Won the NFL's Fastest man competition, won a million dollars.

[Andy Holloway]

That's really not fair that they have the Olympian sprinter like that being said.

[Mike Wright]

If you're an Olympic sprinter, playing football probably should be mentioned as an advantage for Jimmy G and company. Are there enough weapons here healthy now at least as of this recording to say, hey, Jimmy Garoppolo is in that sneaky upside category.

[Andy Holloway]

He's there, yeah, 100%. He's in the 12th round, which for a lot of leagues he's going to go undrafted. And if you told me at the end of the year who's a guy that is a virtually undrafted quarterback who has the, who has the potential? Not the, you know, I'm not saying that he is. I think he's, you know, my quarterback, 20 or something, but he has the potential to come out here and end up as a top six quarter quarterback. He has the weapons. He's had short stretches where he showed he could play almost 5,000 yard pace in his first season with San Francisco. Then the touchdowns came up on the pace of play last year. If he puts those things together, he could be a top end quarterback, especially now that he's got the weapons. That being said, I think he's one year away from taking that next major leap. Deebo Samuels, still a rookie.

[Jason Moore]

Jalen Hurd still recovering from an ACL.

[Andy Holloway]

He's still recovering from an ACL. So, you know, 2020 San Francisco 49ers I think are great. But my, I mean my big win here on this team is just Dante Pettis foot clan. Keep him in the seventh round, keep him low, because I want him everywhere I can get him. You know, he's one of those guys that he's so good and his opportunity is so good. I think he's going to hit. I think he's going to be great.

[Mike Wright]

We talked about this on the plane when we're going out to the live show. Jason, There is, there are only a few players in the NFL that on film to me you see something that is Odell Beckham, like Pettis is in that category. For me, when you watch him play, he moves differently, he plays differently. You know, we talked about his maturing body.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, no, no, no. Unfortunately, Jimmy Garoppolo talked about his maturing body.

[Mike Wright]

I'm going to bring up a player we haven't talked a lot about, and that's Jerick McKinnon. I find people, at least in the, in the circles that I'm in, they either go to Tevin Coleman coming into a system, he knows the free agent pickup. They either want to invest their, the draft capital on Coleman or they might have heard me talk about Matt Burrito. They might have watched Matt Burrito play football. They might side on the super value of the undrafted Matt Burrida, but I don't hear a lot of people going, man, I'm targeting Jerick McKinnon in the ninth round. I mean, he's basically a ninth or 10th round pick and he's ignored. He's like a ghost.

[Andy Holloway]

It's because he's not back yet.

[Jason Moore]

He is a ghost in the ninth.

[Mike Wright]

Round, but he probably. So you're saying it's because he's not back yet because you haven't seen him play.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. If in preseason he gets the first snap, he's going to shoot.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you're right.

[Andy Holloway]

Skyrocket up draft board. This is just a matter of. We haven't seen. Do you expect that right now? I guess that, but I wouldn't call it an expectation. I don't think you can really expect anything with these three running backs. We have to see something first in preseason. This is going to be one of the teams to keep an eye on when it comes to that backfield. Not. Not how they do, not how they perform. Just what's the order that you're giving them the ball. Who are you trusting? First and second.

[Mike Wright]

All right. And we know that this offense, Kyle Shanahan, wants to run the football. So it could be one of those things where if it shakes out down to a couple guys, you might jump on it as a fantasy owner.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. But I want to see it first.

[Mike Wright]

They start on the road against Tampa, on the road against Cincy, then Pittsburgh in a bi week. Just a heads up for the first few weeks of the season. George Kittle, I guess, would be the last question I had to you from an ADP standpoint. I'm passing 309. You're passing.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, that's not to say he's not a great player. It's not to say he's not going to be the third best tight end in the league, but he's not going to replicate what he did last year, just like Mike brought up. And he needs to do that in order to vindicate the draft price of giving up other really good players in the third round to grab a onesie position at tight end where you only need one. You need multiple running backs, you need multiple wide receivers. You. I'm not drafting Kittle in the third. Among those other great options.

[Mike Wright]

All right, we're bringing it home, boys. We're talking about the Arizona Cardinals last season, 3 and 13. Please wipe it from your memory. I've tried. It hasn't quite worked. I'm working on it.

[Andy Holloway]

So has GM Steve Keim. He tried to delete it from the record books. What coach? What quarterback? What draft picks that year didn't happen.

[Mike Wright]

He should try to. Do you know how like in collegiate sports.

[Jason Moore]

I was gonna say it's like a vacated timeline.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

If you cheat. If you cheat, you know, you pay some of those guys to come on your team, they will vacate your season. They will make your. They'll take your wins out of the record book. Can we just say we cheated our way to 3 and 13?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. No more. I mean, talking about last year is really not going to help fantasy owners for the Arizona Cardinals. Outside of the fact that the offensive line stunk, that's going to be something that's brought up, but it's something that stinks. Oh, yeah. Sting it did that Too stunk that one as well.

[Jason Moore]

It's going to be all of them this year too.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, the huddle has them ranked as the 29th best offensive line heading into the season.

[Andy Holloway]

Optimistic.

[Mike Wright]

But the thing is, is a player like Kyler Murray who can get outside the pocket can mask some of those issues. Russell Wilson has played many years, yes, behind one of the worst offensive lines anybody's ever laid eyes on. Improved last year, but he's dealt with that so that it makes it a little easier to not pay attention to that. If we were coming into the season with Josh Rosen behind center and saying, oh my gosh, he needs pocket protection, which he didn't get last year, you know, it's a different story. But heading into this season, the offense has added a million pieces. Kyler Murray at quarterback, Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler at wide receiver. Keyshawn Johnson in the sixth round at wide receiver. They basically Cliff Kingsbury. Cliff Kingsbury head coach. And Christian Kirk coming back from injury, a player that flashed in his rookie year. And obviously you still have David Johnson.

[Andy Holloway]

David Johnson.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, feels good. And then Larry Fitzgerald who came out today, talked about the pace of play. We've talked about it before. Cliff Kingsbury wants to run more plays than any coach in football. You can what what you want. If you never score, you never get first downs, it won't matter. But no, they're.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, the pace of play is everything. The pace of play. Look, Chip Kelly, the Chip Kelly experiment for the Philadelphia Eagles, it failed. Failed. He flamed out. He got kicked out of the league, run out of Philly. Except it was really good for fantasy because it was just run and gun and just play after play after play. They're getting these things off. There's 20 seconds left on the play clock and they're like, snap the ball, go. And that's what is being talked about. That's what's being seen from the local, from the players, from the beat writers. The pace of play is going to go from one of the slowest teams in the league to one of the fastest teams in the league. Which means if the average draft price of Arizona Cardinals doesn't come up to meet it there, there could be serious value here. Now, we've seen a lot of this come up.

[Mike Wright]

David Johnson. Kelly comp is the terrifying thing as a Cardinal fan.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

Fantasy purposes, you're right.

[Andy Holloway]

So that's where it's like David Johnson's already done his leap. Right. People have wise. He's the fifth running back on average right now. I believe.

[Jason Moore]

And that's where he should be.

[Andy Holloway]

And I agree now with Melvin Gordon. I would. I would put him five before I would have put him six. Yeah, I mean, so David Johnson is going to be great, but who can you really trust at wide receiver considering they're looking at spreading it out? Three wide, four wide, you know, is Larry of value is Chris.

[Mike Wright]

Let's give some ADPs right now because right now, David Johnson. You said it. Fifth, sixth player off the board, Christian Kirk, 706. Kyler Murray, 710, which by the way, is a huge rise at ADP over the last few months. I think he was in the 12th, 13th round, people ignoring him. Now he's in the seventh round. Now he's like, people remember rushing quarterbacks do things in the NFL for fantasy. And then Fitzgerald's at 902. So Jason, Mike Kirk at 706 or Fitzgerald at 902 to capitalize on value in Arizona or take your shot at value in Arizona.

[Andy Holloway]

I would take Larry Fitzgerald at 902 Just because I think Christian Kirk has the higher ceiling. But it's more likely to me that Larry Fitzgerald has a better season and he's cheaper.

[Mike Wright]

I'm with you on that one. I think Kirk is going to be a good player. I think Isabella is going to have his weeks. I think both those players are going to get some of that. It's going to be hard to predict, but I would lean the Fitzgerald side. What about you, Mike?

[Jason Moore]

I have them pretty close to each other, but not ranked very highly. So with them that close to each other, I.

[Andy Holloway]

Would you bypass either? Both?

[Jason Moore]

I think I would. I think I would bypass them both.

[Andy Holloway]

At this point, I'm not excited. I mean, I have passed Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk in numerous rounds of numerous drafts. I don't have a lot of stock in them.

[Mike Wright]

So if. Sorry, go ahead.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, for what that's worth to the offense, that. That does not mean that Kyler Murray, like, people are always like, well, you don't have these wide receivers ranked high. How can the quarterback be high? Or vice versa? Happens all the time. I mean, we had a couple years ago where, you know, Kirk Cousins was, I think, a top five quarterback and his highest ranked wide receiver was like 45. That can happen if you spread the ball around, you add the rushing for Kyler Murray. I don't think that you have to have a high wide receiver for Kyler to be successful for fantasy.

[Mike Wright]

It's very easy because of how bad this offense was to kind of look at everything with a rosy tint of like it's got to be at least a little bit better than where they're being drafted to color in some of the challenges that you're bringing up. Since 2004, rookie quarterbacks have failed to produce even one top 36 wide receiver 64% of the time. So more often than not, a rookie quarterback fails to produce high level wide receiver play. Good example of what you could see. Different players, different offense. But Lamar Jackson was not good for the John Brown machine last year when he came in and took over.

[Jason Moore]

Baker wasn't. You weren't very happy with Cleveland's wide receivers last year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. However, since 1990, every rookie quarterback that has crossed 80 total rushing attempts, which is only five attempts per game, has maintained a top 10 quarterback per game pace.

[Jason Moore]

Five a game.

[Mike Wright]

Five a game. And Kyler averaged 10 a game in college.

[Jason Moore]

That's easy money.

[Mike Wright]

And if you're calling. Look, if you're going to be running that many plays, it's inevitable he's going to run the ball five to ten times a game.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

At minimal. Which means it's inevitable that Kyler Murray is worth a late seventh round pick of inevitability. So you can read more about the good, bad and ugly of Kyler Murray. There's an article from Kyle Borgogan. Oh, our editor in chief.

[Jason Moore]

Kaiborg.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Over who shortened that one? Was that you, Brooks?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Nice.

[Jason Moore]

You're rehired.

[Mike Wright]

What's his name again? Brooks.

[Jason Moore]

Who cares?

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no. I want Brooks to. Oh, pronounce it Kyle.

[Andy Holloway]

Borg.

[Mike Wright]

Borgnoni.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, the hiccup there was the best part because he was really trying to do it for confident to start.

[Mike Wright]

I don't think I've ever actually said it.

[Andy Holloway]

It's Borgn.

[Jason Moore]

It's the Kyborg.

[Andy Holloway]

It's the Kaiborg.

[Mike Wright]

So he's got a great article. Kyler Murray, rookie quarterbacks and what history can tell us. It's up on the website. The fantasy footballers.com that breaks it down in more detail.

[Jason Moore]

Star Trek is just the Borg. Right, Right. Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Is there any other secret fantasy value you expect to see from this offense? Not the tight end position or with those rookie wide receivers.

[Andy Holloway]

I was just going to bring up. I don't think Charles Clay or Ricky Seals Jones are going to break out. It doesn't seem like the break down.

[Mike Wright]

Maybe.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean I think they're valuable for the team, but I don't see them breaking out. The only player that might be worth just mentioning because Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, they get a lot of airtime higher drafted rookies. But Keyshawn Johnson, you dropped his name. I mean, if you're excited about the.

[Mike Wright]

Good player, if you're excited about the.

[Andy Holloway]

Other two guys, he has every opportunity that those two guys have. I mean, the opportunity of Butler and.

[Mike Wright]

Chad Williams is likely to be cut by the way, out of Arizona. They're expecting Chad Williams not to make.

[Andy Holloway]

Roster based on talent and ability.

[Mike Wright]

Right? Kevin White is there. Oh yeah, the Kevin White is there with an opportunity and one last chance to give it a go in Arizona. Oh my gosh.

[Andy Holloway]

Pristine deal of the day.

[Mike Wright]

So as we close this out, want to give you the pristine deal of the day. Jason is obsessed with Hamilton. He had the chance to see Hamilton in San Francisco and now he's singing show tunes around the office. You know, it's pristine deal of the day. A Todd Gurley signed Los Angeles Rams Jersey $67.57 yesterday at pristineauction.com Go check out their daily sports memorabilia auctions. There's always a steal, always a deal. And yeah, use the code ballers when you sign up. Otherwise, that is it for today's episode of the podcast. Thank you for following along, but great news.

[Jason Moore]

We will see you one last time this week.

[Mike Wright]

Saturday. That's right, it's a Saturday head to head mock draft. Mike, I'm coming for you.

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.