RB Rankings Part Two + Bag O' Money, Time After Time - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/10

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - RB Rankings Part Two + Bag O' Money, Time After Time

Episode Overview In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve into the second part of their running back (RB) rankings, covering positions 11 through 20. The discussion offers in-depth analysis of each player’s fantasy potential, addressing factors such as opportunity, usage, health, and team dynamics. Additionally, the hosts touch upon recent NFL news impacting RB values and provide strategic insights for fantasy managers navigating their drafts.

---

Washington Football Team RB Situation

Key Players Discussed: Antonio Gibson, Adrian Peterson, Peyton Barber, Bryce Love, JD McKissick

The episode begins with a focus on the Washington Football Team's running back room, highlighting the recent release of Darius Geist due to off-field issues. This situation has significant fantasy implications, particularly concerning Antonio Gibson's role and upside.

• Antonio Gibson:
  • Andy Holloway emphasizes, “He doesn’t need to be the guy to be the highest scoring Fantasy output at the position for Washington” ([05:29]).
  • Jason Moore adds, “I'm excited. There's nothing that could happen better for him than the presumed starter to be completely out of the way” ([07:02]).
  • Mike Wright supports Gibson’s potential despite Geist’s release, stating, “I believe that Antonio Gibson has the talent to get to become ... the 1A running back” ([09:19]).

Analysis: The hosts agree that while Gibson displays immense talent, his fantasy value is contingent on his opportunity within a deep RB committee. They caution against overvaluing him prematurely, advising managers to monitor camp developments before drafting him at higher positions.

---

Nick Chubb - RB12

Key Highlights:

• Andy Holloway praises Chubb as “one of the best pure runners in all of football” but notes concerns regarding his touchdown efficiency ([26:12]).
• Jason Moore compares Chubb to Lamar Miller, suggesting his workload will likely sustain his high performance ([24:53]).
• Mike Wright is optimistic, highlighting improvements in the Cleveland Browns’ offensive line under Coach Kevin Stefanski, which should favor Chubb’s usage ([28:43]).

Analysis: Chubb remains a high-value RB due to his consistent workload and elite running ability. Despite some concerns about touchdown production, his overall efficiency and role in the offense make him a reliable pick for fantasy managers.

---

Joe Mixon - RB13

Key Highlights:

• Andy Holloway reflects on Mixon's split performance last season, where he was productive in the latter half while also being a target in the passing game ([32:19]).
• Jason Moore views Mixon as a low-end RB1 with doubts about his consistency and the Browns’ quarterback situation ([35:21]).
• Mike Wright believes Mixon will remain the workhorse back despite potential fluctuations in usage ([36:14]).

Analysis: Mixon is seen as a talented RB with RB1 upside, primarily dependent on the Browns’ offensive stability and his ability to stay healthy. Managers are advised to consider Mixon as a solid mid-round pick with potential for high returns.

---

Austin Ekeler - RB14

Key Highlights:

• Andy Holloway discusses Ekeler’s dual-threat as a rusher and receiver but raises concerns about his workload in a likely three-back system ([36:30]).
• Jason Moore appreciates Ekeler’s receiving skills, labeling him “awesome Echler” but remains cautious about his role as RB1 ([40:03]).
• Mike Wright underscores Ekeler’s versatility, emphasizing his reception yardage as a critical fantasy asset ([40:21]).

Analysis: Ekeler is valued for his pass-catching prowess, making him a valuable RB2 or flex option in PPR leagues. However, his RB1 potential is moderated by uncertainty regarding his rushing workload, necessitating careful consideration based on league format and draft strategy.

---

David Johnson - RB15

Key Highlights:

• Andy Holloway acknowledges Johnson’s reclaiming role in Houston’s offense but remains skeptical about his rushing efficiency ([43:29]).
• Jason Moore criticizes Johnson’s inconsistency, labeling him a draft value but not a reliable RB1 ([43:53]).
• Mike Wright points out the competition for carries in Houston, doubting Johnson’s ability to secure a top-tier fantasy position ([45:00]).

Analysis: Johnson is positioned as a risky pick with potential upside in a new offensive system. Fantasy managers should approach him as a high-risk, high-reward option, weighing his pass-catching ability against uncertain rushing opportunities.

---

Le'Veon Bell - RB16

Key Highlights:

• Jason Moore advocates Bell as a low floor, low ceiling option with significant receiving targets ([48:34]).
• Mike Wright supports Bell's potential as an RB1, contingent on a favorable role in the Jets' offense ([50:40]).
• Andy Holloway recognizes Bell’s passing role but remains cautious about his scoring consistency ([50:07]).

Analysis: Bell is considered a rebound candidate who could deliver fantasy value if his role in the Jets' offense is substantial. His receiving involvement makes him an appealing RB2 option, though his touchdown dependency remains a concern.

---

Chris Carson - RB17

Key Highlights:

• Mike Wright expresses confidence in Carson’s health and role, anticipating his ranking to rise once confirmed ([51:11]).
• Jason Moore emphasizes Carson’s stability and productivity, suggesting he should be prioritized over other question-mark RBs ([52:00]).
• Andy Holloway highlights Carson’s potential if he starts week one, but notes his current lower ranking due to uncertainty ([51:24]).

Analysis: Carson is viewed as a valuable pick if health concerns are alleviated. His established role in the Seahawks' offense positions him as a strong RB2 with potential to climb in rankings based on preseason developments.

---

Melvin Gordon - RB18

Key Highlights:

• Mike Wright questions Gordon’s efficiency despite his potential workload ([54:31]).
• Andy Holloway notes Gordon’s dual-threat capability but remains wary of his touchdown production ([55:41]).
• Jason Moore discusses Gordon’s transition to a new team, expressing uncertainty about his pass-catching role ([56:32]).

Analysis: Gordon presents as a high-variance pick with the ability to produce in both rushing and receiving. Fantasy managers should monitor his integration into the Chargers' offense and his utilization in the passing game before drafting him.

---

Todd Gurley - RB19 & James Conner - RB20

Key Highlights:

• Mike Wright dismisses Gurley as a bust, aligning with previous sentiments ([59:21]).
• Jason Moore contends that Gurley remains valuable due to his pass-catching skills despite Mike’s skepticism ([60:14]).
• Andy Holloway is critical of Gurley’s efficiency and longevity as a fantasy asset ([59:38]).

Analysis: Gurley is largely viewed as a risky pick with limited upside, primarily relying on his receiving ability. Conner, meanwhile, is praised for his talent but marred by injury concerns. Both players are recommended as speculative picks for deeper leagues or as roster additions rather than primary starters.

---

Strategic Insights & Conclusions

Throughout the episode, the hosts offer strategic advice for drafting RBs:

• Monitor Opportunities: Players like Antonio Gibson and Chris Carson require attentiveness to their preseason roles and usage.
• Assess Team Dynamics: Understanding offensive schemes and coaching philosophies is crucial in evaluating RB potential.
• Balance Risk & Reward: Diversifying RB picks with a mix of high-upside and stable options can mitigate risks associated with injuries and role uncertainties.

Notable Quote:

Jason Moore: “I'm going to temper expectations and be realistic with what is actually going to happen with the Washington football team backfield. This isn't going to be the Antonio Gibson Show Week 1. He's just the starter.” ([07:02])

Final Takeaway: The RB rankings from 11 to 20 present a mix of high-potential young backs and experienced veterans whose fantasy value is influenced by team dynamics, health, and usage. Fantasy managers are encouraged to stay informed on preseason developments and adopt a flexible draft strategy to optimize their rosters.

---

Timestamp Reference: All timestamps correspond to the format (MM:SS) and indicate the approximate point in the episode where each topic or quote occurs.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

All right, all right, all right.

[Jason Moore]

It's almost that time of year, the.

[Andy Holloway]

Time when I set the foundation for.

[Jason Moore]

Supreme and total dominance at my fantasy football draft.

[Andy Holloway]

How can I be so confident?

[Jason Moore]

Because I used the ultimate draft Kit.

[Andy Holloway]

From the Fantasy Footballers man. It updates all off season, so I.

[Mike Wright]

Never worry about using old busted information.

[Andy Holloway]

Consistency charts, auction values, full projections.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, baby, this thing's got it all.

[Mike Wright]

You want to keep it 100 for your draft?

[Andy Holloway]

Head to ultimatedraftkit.com and get your copy today. Hey, this is Kenyon Drake. You're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Back with you, Monday, August 10th.

[Jason Moore]

10Th.

[Andy Holloway]

The season creepeth forward. Which way comes Andy, Mike and Jason with you? Thanks for joining us. We appreciate you out there. And it's going to be a great show. We got another running back rankings show. If you didn't get one through 10, you can do that on.

[Mike Wright]

Well, see, here's the thing about a running backs.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, tell me, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

The top 10 list.

[Mike Wright]

The top 10 list is running backs one through 10.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, yes, it is. And we captured that on Friday's episode of the podcast. So you can go back and listen. And today, 11 through. Is it 20, Brooks, are we just going as far as we can go? We got 11 through 20. All right, we're stopping hard stop. You extras? Maybe. How are you doing today, Brooks? You doing all right? I'm doing all right. Got any lunch plans? Oh, you know it.

[Jason Moore]

Apple salad.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, you can check out the ultimate draft [e-mail] we just launched some player profiles on the website which are amplified by your UDK subscription. So if you've got the ultimate Draft kit, you can check those out on the website. We're very excited about them.

[Jason Moore]

Very.

[Andy Holloway]

They have athletic profile data for every player, so we're looking at their draft metrics. And Jason did a lot of heavy lifting here with the analytical breakdown. Explosiveness and speed score and things of that nature.

[Jason Moore]

That is true.

[Andy Holloway]

Things that you know so very much about.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, look, when you want an expert on explosiveness and quickness, yes, you go to the guy who is surprisingly athletic.

[Andy Holloway]

You go to the B league flag football champion.

[Jason Moore]

That's right.

[Andy Holloway]

That's right.

[Jason Moore]

What we.

[Mike Wright]

What we should do is go like we did a combine video a long time ago and people have asked, are you going to do another combine? I don't think we do, like just a full combine competition, but if we could get Our own athletic profiles. Like get our speed scores, our explosive scores.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that has to happen.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Why don't we have we run the company, Mike. We can make our. I mean our devs can do whatever we want.

[Mike Wright]

It would be really fun and probably really embarrassing.

[Andy Holloway]

We might need to turn the dials up a bit on those scores. Might need to scooch them up. I just don't understand why we're not promoting the profiles on Twitter. With Jason's 40, we have it on film. We're talking about explosiveness and quickness. We can cut that film out and we can put it around on the Internet.

[Jason Moore]

That's not a good look.

[Mike Wright]

Not a good idea.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, well, quick question of the day. This is the big one. By the way, you can find us on twitter@the ffballers. The community is [e-mail] and the big news over the weekend, as is sometimes the case, one of these situations, Washington has released Darius Geist following an arrest on domestic violence related charges. In fact, if you look into the details of this, these were three different accounts that he is being charged with, turned himself in, was released almost immediately by the team, which is obviously terrible situation. And we have to turn the page. We got to look at the fantasy. It is a fantasy show, right? And we got to look at the fantasy fallout of something that happens a couple times a year. Here we are looking at the Washington football team. They have a deep running back room. There's a lot of excitement out there, in particular about Antonio Gibson, third round rookie running back, wide receiver, Swiss army knife return man. And they have Adrian Peterson coming back. We've got Peyton Barber sign this off season. We have Bryce Love who basically redshirted his rookie year. He had an ACL tear in his senior season at Stanford. And then smooches is there.

[Mike Wright]

JD McKissick.

[Andy Holloway]

JD McKissick is there. And when you, it's almost. It's funny because no one wants to consider him in this picture, but he was signed this offseason by this regime, had 34 receptions last year, has played the third down back on multiple teams now Detroit and Seattle. So I have my thoughts on the situation. I think most people want to know who to draft out of this backfield, how you think it's going to play out over the season. And then I would say the ceiling. The upside of the Antonio Gibson discussion, because most people want to know, look, I was in a bathroom stall the other day, said if you're looking for a good time, go watch Antonio Gibson YouTube videos. It's a good time because this is a player that was not.

[Mike Wright]

It was not my handwriting.

[Andy Holloway]

It was your handwriting.

[Mike Wright]

No, no.

[Andy Holloway]

Because it was right next to a Blake Darwin phone number and I. Anyways, when we look at Antonio Gibson, when I say go watch Antonio Gibson YouTube highlights, that is equivalent to saying go watch Antonio Gibson play college football. Because he has such a small. He played basically one season. I mean, he had a very small.

[Mike Wright]

Well, he played one season at Memphis.

[Andy Holloway]

Correct. But he had very. He has very few opportunities and everything he did turned to goal, 33 carries.

[Mike Wright]

He was King Midas.

[Andy Holloway]

He was incredible.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

So obviously people see that. They combine it with the, with the. He's one of three players compared to Christian McCaffrey in that backfield. So I'll hand it off and then I'll close this down on that discussion.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So we're going to temper expectations and be realistic with what is actually going to happen with the Washington football team backfield. This isn't going to be the Antonio Gibson Show Week 1. He's just the starter. That's not what I believe. I know that's not what Andy believes. I don't know where you stand, Mike, but that's not the case. But you know, you, you, Andy, you just referred to the team as a very deep running back core. And to me that's like describing the Patriots wide receiver group as this really deep. What you know, they've got Nikhil Harry.

[Mike Wright]

They got a bunch of guys.

[Jason Moore]

They've got Julian Edelman who's been great. They've. They've got Mohammed Sanu, they gave up a second rounder for him. Jacoby Myers has shown flashes. But like I think universally people would say the Patriots wide receiver group is one of the worst in the league right now. And that's how I look at the Washington backfield. I'm not inspired by Adrian Peterson at this age. He's okay. He's a vet, I'll give him that. But you know, he was in the 800 yards last year and he was basically the starter for almost the entire season last year. Peyton Barber. I think this is a murky group where, yes, they have a lot of guys there, but I don't think there is much talent, which is why they would spend a third round pick, an early third round pick on Antonio Gibson. I think they believe in the talent and that they want to get him involved. So if I'm looking at this season and saying who am I going to draft of this group, I definitely think AP is the starter Right now who will get more touches in the beginning and there's no chance I'm drafting Adrian Peterson. I don't need that on my fantasy roster. So some mediocre running back, 26 that week get some points. I'm going to draft Gibson, who is, you know, a great pass catcher. And you know that that's where fantasy gold really comes from for running backs. So I lean much more on the Gibson side. I'm excited. There's nothing that could happen better for him than the presumed starter to be completely out of the way.

[Mike Wright]

Right. And okay, so I'll jump in. It's not just they spent the 302 on Antonio Gibson. Washington didn't have a second round pick, so they drafted with their second pick in the draft. They drafted Antonio Gibson. They drafted him over a bunch of other running backs in the league. I'm with Jason. Look, you know, I've been beating the drum all off season for Antonio Gibson. I think his upside the ceiling of this player is insane. Adrian Peterson is still the starter right now. I do believe that Antonio Gibson has the talent to get to become, you know, in a timeshare, maybe even become the, the 1A, so to speak of a 1A 1B situation. Like he, I get people point at the Memphis stats. Like he did play in junior college as well and was dominant there. Like, yeah, the opportunities have been limited, but follow the path of what Antonio Gibson has done. The reason he was at junior college is because, look, he screwed up in school. He didn't have the grades, he couldn't end up at a Division 1 school. So he went to JUCO and he was dominant there. His talent earned him a spot onto Memphis in Division 1 football. His talent at Memphis earned him to being an early third round pick in.

[Jason Moore]

The NFL draft ahead of Keyshawn Bond, ahead of Zach Moss.

[Mike Wright]

And this was, you know, Ron Rivera was part of the decision process of saying, I want that guy on my team. So I'm just trying to follow the money. I get it. They signed Peyton barber, they signed McKissick. This is before the draft though, where you have to go get players. You can't just assume that you're going to get your guy in the third round. You have to make moves. Bryce Love is definitely interesting because he had the huge breakout campaign where he.

[Andy Holloway]

Was a 20, 100 yards, he was.

[Mike Wright]

A Heisman candidate in his junior year. Things really fell off for him his senior year. Now he played through a left ankle injury. So perhaps that plus poor offensive line, that's the Cause of everything falling apart. And unfortunately for him, you know, he tore his ACL in his final game, which is. That's. That sucks, man.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

But Bryce Love, I think he does have talent. He's a smaller back, but man, what Antonio Gibson can do on the field, plus, you know, his production all over the field in all asset or aspects of the game, including kick returns. And I was talking with Rich Rebar about guys that have huge amounts of return yards. And look, the list of these guys who have were top 100 picks in the NFL or top 100 running backs sorted by return yards. The hit list is pretty amazing. You, you put your best players on returns. You want to say this guy's great in the open field. Put him on kick returns, you know, and it doesn't matter who what the position they play on the field. I mean, Tony Gibson was a special player or special teams player of the year for the aac.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, he'll do that. He'll do that for Washington.

[Mike Wright]

He is an incredible player. I don't know how long it will take him to get on the field. And what's unfortunate about the situation is I believe that Gibson had the talent to play his way to the spot regardless of Darius Geist.

[Andy Holloway]

I would say the Darius Geist thing might actually destroy his draft value.

[Mike Wright]

It 100% does because it's not much.

[Andy Holloway]

Of a difference in the ceiling opportunity for Gibson with Geist there.

[Mike Wright]

Now, now you don't get to be right now the ADP is going to get out of control. There's a look, I have no regrets about driving up the ADP of Antonio Gibson. I'm very excited about what this player could do.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, there's a lot of things I think the best lens to look at Antonio Gibson through is not this one where he has to usurp the backfield. That is not the situation you have here with Antonio Gibson. You have players that are more experienced both in third down role and first and second down role that are going to. It's going to take Gibson a little bit of time.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Juco. Okay. He played some juco. He played. He has 33 carries in college. That's not at Memphis, correct? Yes. At a FBS school. Here's the thing. I'm not saying that as a demerit. And this is to quote Robert Wilson, his 33 carries is a question mark about his experience, not a demerit to his talent. He does not. And this is the bigger point, he doesn't have to be the guy to be the highest scoring Fantasy output at the position for Washington. This is the last placed scoring team last year. Ron Rivera, when he came into Carolina, it took him a couple years to get things going record wise. It could take a little bit of time and it's a deeper room. He's working. Antonio Gibson is working with the wide receivers as much as he's working with the running back room. He's also going to return kicks. He's going to be the Swiss army knife and there's nobody behind Terry McLaurin. When I look at opportunity for Antonio Gibson, it's not this path to, you know, if he gets 100 carries this year, I'll be shocked. I will be shocked. He doesn't need it though. I have him at RB41. I think he will finish higher than that. I won't be able to predict when that'll happen because he's going to have the Percy Harvin esque type. I mean Percy Harvin, you go back and look, he had seasons with 50 plus rushing attempts to go with all the receiving yards. There will be opportunity for Gibson, but this is to pull it back to the final conclusion here. Watch camp. Pay attention to camp. If Bryce Love is making headlines in camp, it changes and muddies the water more. If he's not and he's more reserved, you know, when will Gibson learn blitz pickups? When will Gibson get opportunities on third down? It's going to be fun to watch him on the field.

[Mike Wright]

And I will say this is from TJ Hernandez. He talked about the play calling of Ron Rivera. So Ron Rivera in neutral game scripts from 2011 to 2019 he was the 10th highest passing rate in so because in his. TJ's point was simply they like Ron Rivera likes to pass when the game is close.

[Andy Holloway]

So they have J.D.

[Jason Moore]

Mckissick.

[Mike Wright]

No, I'm just saying like you have they want to pass when the game is close and then when, when Scott Turner took over, they jumped into a neutral play script. Percentage of passing, that's a mouthful there but that would have been third in the league.

[Andy Holloway]

Like they're not Callahan anymore.

[Mike Wright]

This is going to be a pass happy offense when the game is close and then if they're losing, guess what they're doing. They're going to pass like Gibson, he's in. People are excited that Cream Hunt is taking meetings with the wide receiver team. Antonio Gibson is also taking meetings in the wide receiver room as well as the running back room which look that could be bad for a rookie for his development if he has to fully Learn two positions. But if you're drafting anyone from this team, nobody. To me, no one has a ceiling except for Antonio Gibson.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll probably end up with Adrian Peterson on more teams than Antonio Gibson. The real question I had for you, and that's just because the draft price, you're not going to pay anything for him. If you need like a start for a couple of weeks, I will pay.

[Mike Wright]

The waiver wire for Adrian Peterson.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's fine. Is there any chance you have Antonio Gibson on any team here? Forward? Honestly, is he worth the price that he's going to cost?

[Mike Wright]

I have no idea where this ADP rocket ship is going to land. I would be. I would still be willing to take him in the 8, 9 range because of what I perceive as his upside compared to these other flyers. At that point of the draft, you're. You're swinging at every pitch that's thrown at you.

[Andy Holloway]

We'll be watching. We'll be watching Washington's camp and seeing how this thing breaks down and how many snaps he's getting with the running back core. And we'll stay water and keep modifying those adjustments. Look, it's talent and opportunity. He's got all the talent in the world. What opportunity will he have will determine his draft position? All right, other bits of. Real quick. I guess this is more like Mike Wright hype news. No preseason games, no joint practices. Lewis Riddick said Clyde Edwards Allaire looking real good, Progressing well given what they have given him. Mahomes said he's wanting to learn more. Gets in every single rep that they let him. Getting better every single day. Yada, yada, yada. What we think about Clyde Edwards Alaire is going to come true.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

It's going to be like it's happening.

[Jason Moore]

It's going to be a good season for Clyde Edwards Lair and the Chiefs and Pat Mahomes and that offense. And you want a piece of it? You want two pieces? You want three?

[Mike Wright]

You want.

[Jason Moore]

If I could start the draft with three Chiefs, I would do it.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And Ron Rivera also said Alex Smith, if he's activated, will be in the throes of the competition for the team starting quarterback spot. You brought the statistics up about their passing frequency in close games. It makes a huge difference to me. That number will continue if Alex Smith is the quarterback. But if, if Dwayne Haskins is turning the ball over in those circumstances, they're gonna have to protect him. And so that could make a big difference as well.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, certainly before we get to our running back tier 2 running backs. I want to thank Navy Federal Credit Union. Let the foot clan know that. Look, if you're looking for ways to save more each month, Navy Federal Credit Union offers members great way to lower interest rates. Save more. They have a platinum card that is perfect for large purchases. You might need some extra time to pay off. Like, I don't know, let's say your industrial freezer just stops working.

[Andy Holloway]

One of them.

[Jason Moore]

One of your industrial freezers just stops working in your garage and you need to replace it. Look, the platinum card, it's simple, no frills card that helps get your mission accomplished. You can refinance your auto loan and members save more when they refinance with Navy Federal. You enjoy low rates, flexible payments and terms at Navy Federal members are the mission. Visit navy federal.org to learn more. Insured by NCUA Credit and Collateral subject to approval, refinance loan must be at least $5,000 to be eligible for the $200 message and data rates may apply. Visit Navy federal.org for more information.

[Andy Holloway]

We also want to remind you about fantasychamps.com fantasychamps.com right now you get a free draft kit with the purchase of a trophy, fantasy football trophy or a belt, one of those big bad championship belts.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, they're big and bad.

[Andy Holloway]

They're very heavy. When using the promo code baller draft, use that code, you get a free draft kit. They've got tons of great, you know, swag for your fantasy league. So you can go over to fantasychamps.com use the code baller draft. It's running back time.

[Jason Moore]

Running backs, part two.

[Andy Holloway]

That's 11 through 20, maybe. That's right. Kenyan Drake coming in as Our consensus number 11 overall running back. If I had told Jason Moore that a year ago, if I had told him a year from now we'll be talking about Kenyan Drake in your top 12.

[Mike Wright]

He'd say, I believe you.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I would. I'd say, oh, did he finally get the opportunity? I would have said, did he? Does he finally get the opportunity to be a lead back? Because he'll be outstanding in that role. Oh, it's for a really high paced fast offense. Fantastic. Oh, he already dominated with this offense. Okay, okay, I'm in.

[Mike Wright]

I have you say that like you were ever out.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I've never been out.

[Mike Wright]

On, ooh, I'm in.

[Andy Holloway]

I've got him at 11, Jason at 8, Mike at 12. Jason has taken him in the majority of his mock drafts and his average draft position is the RB9 right now. So actually, Mike And I are a little bit below ADP, but he's a top 12 back. I mean you saw it last year. Week 15 he was the number one overall fantasy running back. Week 16 he was number two. That was Cleveland and Seattle. He had a huge role in Arizona. DeAndre Hopkins comes in, a lot of people expecting Kyler to take the step forward. And they went out and they actively pursued Kenyon Drake. They recognized the fit the way fantasy owners recognized it. And they said he has to be our running back this year. David Johnson, we're going to get rid of you for nothing. Oh, I'm sorry. I mean for DeAndre Hopkins, what are.

[Jason Moore]

We going to do with this contract? I don't know. Can we turn it into D hop?

[Andy Holloway]

Sounds made up still. All right, but looking at Kenyan Drake, RB4 from week nine on, big league winner for fantasy owners last year, I mean, what can go wrong in Arizona for Kenyan Drake?

[Jason Moore]

Injury. I think that that could go wrong. Not because he has some pro ness, but we haven't seen him carry the workload for an entirety of the season. He was on pace as an Arizona Cardinal for 246 rushing attempts and 70 targets which turn into 56 receptions. That's the 16 game pace as, as a Cardinal. So we've never seen him be a 250 carry, 50 reception running back ever. So that to me is the worry. I'm not super worried about. And Andy, you might speak, we're all Cardinals fans here. We follow the team very closely. I'm saying you may speak to.

[Mike Wright]

I will you to speak upon Kenyan.

[Jason Moore]

Drake to your belief that Chase Edmonds is more involved. But last year David Johnson was also here, obviously injured for a stretch. Chase Edmonds was here, but injured for a stretch. But those guys were there and he and Drake was still without a shred of doubt the guy. So to me what could go wrong is simply injury. Otherwise he's going to be pace for 300 total touches involved in the passing game. He was on pace for 1286 yards. Throw the touchdowns out because that's not a sticky stat. He was on Pace for 16 touchdowns. Maybe that goes away. Maybe he's.

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe Kyler's more successful in the red zone. Exactly. It actually I. And you can tell me whether it's the fair comparison or not. It was interesting because when I look at Lamar Miller when he was with Miami, 107, 177 carries, 216 carries, 194 carries. And he was super efficient. 5.1 a carry, 4.5 a carry. Big plays went to Tech, to the Texans, jumped up to that 260 carry mark. Efficiency went down a little bit, still got over a thousand yards. Chase Edmonds involvement doesn't change really how I look at Kenyan Drake obviously ranked inside the top 12. It's just a matter of how much work do they give him. And I think they give him enough to keep him in the top 12 each and every week. He's going to catch passes, but I don't think he has top five potential.

[Jason Moore]

I do agree that the Lamar Miller comp is very good. It was one of those, oh, he always did it in.

[Andy Holloway]

He's also the same age. He was 25 when he changed same age as.

[Jason Moore]

And so you know, what did he do that first year in Houston? He was the running back 18. Well, if you're drafting Kenyon Drake as the running back nine and he finishes as a running back 18, you're not going to be happy with that. You would be disappointed. The only difference being that, you know, we hadn't seen Lamar Miller with Houston. We saw Drake in this offense with Arizona where he dominated.

[Andy Holloway]

Was that 18 RB 18, his floor somewhere around there.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think. I think that's the case.

[Mike Wright]

And I would say that the difference of if you're looking at Lamar Miller changing to the Houston Texans like you're going to, you're going in with O'Brien. Like the cliff Kingsbury system. Last year David Johnson faced a stacked box of eight or more defenders on carries 5.32% of the time. That was David Johnson. Like they spread the ball or they spread out the offense very similar to the Rams where they've been able to get historically, you know, they were able to get Todd Gurley, very easy light boxes to run against. That's just what the system is in Arizona. So.

[Jason Moore]

Well, what's crazy about that is the reason David Johnson's numbers were so good is because if you remember the beginning of the year when he wasn't injured, they were running 10 personnel a ton. They completely went away from it. That's what they want to do, but they didn't have the receiving corps in order to do that. Christian Kirk got injured and they just weren't that deep. Now with Hopkins, Fitzgerald, Kirk, Isabella Butler, I think they get back to running more 10 personnel, which Drake didn't see that few of stacked boxes as David Johnson did. He's going to have an even easier time in 2020.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, number 12 on our list is Nick Chubb. I think Nick Chubb is an extremely interesting fantasy player this year. His season was incredible. 1494 yards, 8 touchdowns, 36 receptions. I think he's one of the best pure runners in all of football. Yet you have coming into the season. People don't know exactly where to put him for two reasons. One is, you know, the Kareem Hunt piece in general. Fantasy owners like clear paths and with Kareem Hunt's talent and ability there, it just kind of, it's in the back of your head. You can't think of Nick Chubb without hearing Cream Hunt, you know, running onto the field in, in the back of your head. But the inefficiency at the touchdown, you know, with the touchdowns over the second half of the year was so bad that I think it also unfairly distorts Nick Chubb's season. Like this was a top five type of season if the touchdowns came. In fact, even in the first half of the year, he's on a 1600 yard, you know, 13 touchdown pace until it just drops off. He's. Second half.

[Mike Wright]

He scored two rushing touchdowns in the second half of the season. Like that's, that seems impossible.

[Jason Moore]

It's preposterous. For the amount of touches and yards that he was still getting.

[Andy Holloway]

He was getting the same as Christian McCaffrey was getting in opportunities inside of the red zone. He just literally, he got up to the line and took a knee, right? But the fear, actually his offensive lineman pushed his knee down to the ground.

[Mike Wright]

The defense just magically appeared.

[Jason Moore]

The fear, though, is that second half, when, and not just the second half of the year, specifically from week 10 on, when Kareem Hunt was on the field. At that point, the touchdowns didn't come. The usage was still there for him to be great. But what we saw was the running back 15 and at the same time over those same games and half point scoring, Kareem Hunt was the running back 19. So he was, he wasn't that much behind him. And so that's where the fear comes. People are like, well, he doesn't catch passes. So if the game script gets bad, I, you know, I don't usually like a non pass catching running back. And what if the utilization is lower due to Kareem Hunt? But I think what we believe is that Chubb's talent requires a heavy workload. You can't run a team that has Chubb on it and not give him a ton of opportunities to help your team, you know, just on the field. So he, the talent and opportunity will be there for Chuck.

[Mike Wright]

And it's a different play caller. This is a different regime. Now running the Cleveland Browns, you have Kevin Stefanski coming down from Minnesota, who loved him. Some. Some runs like Kirk, he didn't allow Kirk Cousins to throw the ball hardly at all. He's going to, in my opinion, do something very similar of limit the opportunities that Baker Mayfield has and he's going to force feedback. The running backs. And I like Kareem Hunt a lot, but I still believe that Nick Chubb is the primary benefactor from this.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, we're talking about and with and without Cream Hunt, difference In pace of 1382 yards rushing versus 1600 yards resting.

[Jason Moore]

1300. What a loser.

[Andy Holloway]

And if you believe what was. Have you been heckled in that tone of voice before?

[Mike Wright]

But Jason, what you were like, it was like Swedish, Swedish Chef.

[Jason Moore]

It was.

[Andy Holloway]

You don't know what you're talking about.

[Mike Wright]

Big summer blowout.

[Andy Holloway]

But this is what I mean about like, it's getting. It's putting a bit of a haze around Nick Chubb that I don't think belongs there. 288 carry pace versus 306. I mean, this is a player I believe Nick Chubb can finish as the number one overall running back in fantasy. I believe he's one of the players that can do that. And if you believe like Mike does, that Baker has a bounce back, that this offense has a bounce back, that there are more scoring opportunities. And the law of averages for a player that got more opportunities inside the five than anybody except for Christian McCaffrey, persists. There is a world where like Nick Chubb is in the 15 touchdown world, he's in the 16 touchdown world. And then all of a sudden he's Derek Henry. He's not, you know, Nick Chubb, Nick Chubb. And so Kareem Hunt's going to be a big part of the offense. But I don't want people to, you know, if you take Nick Chubb and you get him, you know, in the second round, that's a steal to me. I think that there's an opportunity there.

[Jason Moore]

It's nice because you right now where, you know, you're drafting him, you can get him as your running back too. You know what I mean? We've seen that quite a lot where he falls into that second round and you can go running back, running back. I am not as bullish if I'm going to draft him as my running back. 1. I know I've got him right now as RB10. But because of the lack of pass catching and the consistency that I want you know, you look at that second half of the year where it was like he was the running back. 24, 26, 12, great. 27, 5, great, 34. It was kind of back and forth because he didn't have the baseline of receptions. I only want chubb as my RB2.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure. Yeah. And I feel like we're in a situation here that we're in with, like, the Rams, the back half of the year. How much of the end of last year, how much of that recency is prescriptive with the new head coaching staff and how much isn't? And people don't know because the team was falling apart at the same time.

[Mike Wright]

I think Nick Chubb's going to run all over everybody. I have him too low.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah. When the off season started, he was higher on everybody's board.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And then over the course of the off season, he doesn't.

[Mike Wright]

You start letting the doubt creep in.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So. And obviously, you believe in Baker rebounding, and I'm starting to. And the office starting to believe in it, too.

[Jason Moore]

The offensive line is.

[Mike Wright]

That's exactly what it is. You have. You have an offensive line reconstructed, projected to be great. You have a play caller who wants to run the ball. You have Nick Chubb, who is a top five talent at the running back position. When it comes to running, the formula is there for success, and I'm going to stop doubting it.

[Andy Holloway]

Joe Mixon at 13. Speaking of doubt, Joe Mixon comes in at number 13 on our consensus rankings. I have a 9, Jason at 12, Mike at 14. He was absolutely unstoppable over the second half of the season. The first half, very stoppable, super stoppable. One of the most stoppable running backs.

[Mike Wright]

It was, in fact, droppable for fantasy football.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, he just. He had a couple of games where he had, what, two or three carries or something of that nature. Like, he was barely utilized. But I. This is a team that I actually believe is going to be better than people think. I think Cincinnati is going to be much improved with Joe Burrow and AJ Green returning and their offensive linemen that they basically, you know, they drafted him and he couldn't play, and he comes back. And so now we're in a situation where how much of a step forward is Joe Burrow for this offense? And is Joe. You know, you talk about end of season, talking about Nick Chubb. If you take the last eight games of Joe Mixon, he was one of the best in football. So where are you guys with his, I guess, ceiling and floor in Cincinnati.

[Jason Moore]

You know, look, he's a, he's a very talented running back. He can catch the ball even though they didn't pass it to him a lot this last year. And the coaching staff has said they want to utilize him, get him more involved in the passing game. Really. If you look at the tale of the two halves last year you had a real difference in opportunities. The second half of the year he was on pace for 394 total opportunities. That's targets plus carries. Whereas before that he was on pace for 252. So you're talking about 152 more opportunities. And so when I look at this team and I try to figure out, okay, what does Zach Taylor want to do? One, he learned that Joe Mixon was really talented, needed to get the ball more great. But also he kind of had to give Joe Mixon the ball more as time went on, as the receiving core got injured, as the quarterback was having problems in Dalton. And you're going to backups and you're like my only consistency here is Joe Mixon. So I think he lands in between those numbers when it comes to carries. I don't believe that the second half of Joe Mixon season where he was, you know, on pace for almost 400 touches is going to happen in 2020. But he is good enough and he is the, he is the, you know, the workhorse back for this team where I see him as a low end RB1. I'm not super bullish on him. I don't think that Burrow is going to turn this team around in his rookie season. So I guess I, when I look at him, I have my doubts. I certainly don't want to bank on Joe Mixon's second half of last year as prescriptive for success this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I was super impressed with him over the back half of the year because everybody knew that they had no quarterback and he was playing teams like Pittsburgh and New England that, you know, you shouldn't be able to go out and do anything against when everybody knows you're the whole part of the offense. And week eight on 1600 yard pace, it's not like he wasn't great the year before. People forget that. So I'm a little more bullish. I think he has great potential this year. We'll move on Austin Eckler.

[Mike Wright]

The final thing is there was a new quote from the Bengals OC Brian Callahan who said Joe Mixon is a volume carrier saying he gets better as he gets more carries. So Regardless of it being true or not, if the team and the offensive coordinator believes that I get Joe Mix in the ball more and he gets better as the game goes along, if they believe that Mix is going to get more opportunities.

[Andy Holloway]

21.6 carries per game from week eight on.

[Mike Wright]

That's a lot of carries.

[Andy Holloway]

Austin Eckler coming in at number 14. 14 on my rankings. Jason's rankings. Mike has him at 11.

[Jason Moore]

I got a lot of, we'll call it guff early in the off season for not having him as an RB one.

[Andy Holloway]

That's for our no guff policy, right?

[Jason Moore]

Yes. But now I see that I'm not. Not only do I have him not as an RB one, but it's the same exact ranking as you, Andy. Welcome.

[Andy Holloway]

14. Well, I think.

[Mike Wright]

Didn't you have him at like 1703 spots? I'm just saying you guys have met in the middle.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I imagine Clyde Edwards of Lairs had something to do with his ranking going down a spot. Sure, he jumped over him. I don't know if anybody else did. But Austin Eckler, lot more question marks around what to expect from him than we do other running backs, and that's why he's at 14 on my list. It's all about risk. And Austin Eckler had a tremendous season. 92 receptions for 993 and 8. That was how he did his damage. Can he score eight more times through the year? That might be difficult.

[Mike Wright]

No, he cannot.

[Andy Holloway]

Tyrod Taylor looks to be the quarterback for the foreseeable future. I think probably for a little while. The way the team talks about Tyrod, the way that this offseason has progressed, the very limited amount of work that Justin Herbert is going to be able to receive, and the fact I think this team might surprise and have more wins than we think they will with that defense.

[Mike Wright]

I believe they will.

[Andy Holloway]

And so if you are, you know, halfway through the season and this team is.500 or better, Herbert's not going to get on the field.

[Mike Wright]

Agreed.

[Andy Holloway]

So in that case, it's going to be Tyrod, it's going to be Echler, it's going to be Keenan Allen moving this offense forward. Melvin Gordon is gone now the first half of the year. A lot spicier for Austin Eckler last year than the back half in terms of the fantasy output. We knew Melvin Gordon wasn't there. So the real question is, is, do you trust Austin eckler as an RB1 on your fantasy team? And do you believe that Justin Jackson, slash Joshua Kelly is going to take enough of the early down work to relegate because If Eckler gets 150 carries, we're having a down year from last year for sure.

[Mike Wright]

Go ahead, Jay.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, because he's not going. I don't see a world where he gets 100.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike said that with the saddest voice I've ever heard. He just said, go ahead Jay.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'll dig the hole and then you can jump out of it. Mike, he's not going to get 108 receiving targets again. He's not going to get eight receiving touchdowns. So to me, the. I like Echler. I'm fine with him as my RB2. I told Mike earlier I've been rising on him because he's exceptionally talented. He's very talented and he does the things that matter for fantasy specifically. So that's why we call him awesome Echler. But we have to be realistic here in the sense that they're going to be a slower paced team. They're going to check the ball down far less without Philip Rivers. And I don't believe that Austin Eckler is going to be a 200 carry guy. If he is, the carries to me are what are, you know, is actually going to be his fantasy relevance. If he gets 200 carries then he will absolutely be a top 12 running back. I think that this is a three headed timeshare where each running back could end up in 100 carry count world. And if, if you have all three running backs involved, I just think that really hurts Austin Eckler from getting on the field, getting the receptions that he needs. And so his upside is capped to me because of the offense.

[Andy Holloway]

So that question about whether you feel comfortable as your one.

[Jason Moore]

No, no. He's my running.

[Andy Holloway]

I think I would feel skittish with him as my RB1. I know Mike wouldn't. I feel a little bit like, man, I don't have a prototypical guy here. I missed out on Nick Chubb by a pick who's going to have 288 carries. And then I'm going to go with Austin Eckler who might have 130 or 140.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

It's.

[Mike Wright]

It comes down to what do you believe about the targets because the targets are more valuable. And when you talk about check downs, Jay, like a dude who, a running back who in his career averages more than 10 yards per reception, that guy's not just getting checkdowns, he's also running out of the slot. He's running, he's Running those fancy, you know, Kansas City wheel routes where he's, he's getting deep receptions. It's not just, oh crap, two minute offense. Check it down to Austin Eckler over and over. I do believe that when you give a player a bag the size of the bag that they gave to Austin Eckler, he is going to be the primary guy of the running back committee.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a bag of money.

[Mike Wright]

Absolutely. Well, gold. What a bitcoin. I don't know what's in the bag.

[Andy Holloway]

But it's worth stuff it full of a lot of bitcoin. Actually, you can fit more bitcoin per bag than just about anything.

[Mike Wright]

Look, there's a lot of cold storage inside of that bag. Yes, I get it. Justin Jackson, he's an interesting player. Joshua Kelly is. Joshua Kelly's more of the prototype that you're talking about. When you say a running back, I need a big beefy man, 20 pounds. Yeah. That's what Joshua Kelly is. He was a fourth round pick and we know that the success rate of 4th of players in the 4th or later, it's just, it's just much lower. And I know it's funny to say that as I'm praising Austin Eckler, undrafted free agent, but he's already the outlier. We've already proven who he is as a player. You saw him over those first four games really getting attempts that he didn't see once Melvin Gordon came back. And perhaps that was not what they wanted to do. That's why they drafted Joshua Kelly. But I believe there will be enough targets and enough work that Austin Eckler does return as a running back one. I don't have him projected to be what he was last year, which was what? The running back. Six and a half point ppr. So if he's my running back one, that's because I drafted Michael Thomas or Devonte Adams, a top tier wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

So I would.

[Andy Holloway]

He's going to be a camp mover for me. Camp's going to tell me a lot about the volume he's going to get as a runner.

[Jason Moore]

So when, when we speak default, here we are. Half ppr. That's the leagues that we play in. We prefer Andy in a full ppr. Would you be confident with Echler as your RB one?

[Andy Holloway]

I think so. I think I would.

[Jason Moore]

Full ppr. You're on the clock. You could take Chubb or Eckler.

[Andy Holloway]

Chubb.

[Jason Moore]

You still take Chubb. Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. But I think I'd be if I ended up in that Situation where Eckler needs to be my one in a full ppr, I'd be all right. Be all right. He's going to have, you know, maybe he doesn't have 92 receptions, but he's going to have 80 and probably more carries than he had over the back half of last year with Melvin Gordon involved.

[Mike Wright]

Agreed.

[Andy Holloway]

David Johnson comes in at number 15, 16, 16, 17 on our rankings, 15 by consensus. And it's a whole new world for David Johnson in Houston. And I think it's going to be okay. I think it's going to be okay.

[Jason Moore]

I hate it. I hate it. I hate it.

[Andy Holloway]

You hate that? You think that?

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Because he's the running back, 25 in.

[Andy Holloway]

We're way ahead of his ADP.

[Jason Moore]

And that's why I hate it because he's there. He's there for me every single draft where I look at my rankings and what I believe is going to happen and he is always there for the taking.

[Mike Wright]

I don't like it and I hate.

[Jason Moore]

It because I don't want to bank on David Johnson again. He looked slow and busted, but at the same time, Carlos Hyde was a thousand yard runner. He is a good pass catcher.

[Andy Holloway]

He's going to be Carlos Hyde busted years ago.

[Jason Moore]

I know. And Carlos Hyde was fine last year for the, for the Houston Texans. So when I look at my projections, David Johnson is a real value in this draft and I don't want to take the value. What does that say?

[Mike Wright]

There's like a $5 bill on the ground. You're like, I don't know.

[Andy Holloway]

It's way down there.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know if I want to.

[Andy Holloway]

I got a bent over.

[Jason Moore]

It looks really dirty.

[Mike Wright]

What's on that dollar?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, the problem, the only problem that kind of sticks out for me is the fact that Duke Johnson's such a good pass catching running back. So I don't know exactly what the third down breakdown is going to look like here. It could be one of those situations in Houston where Duke Johnson is better at literally everything than David Johnson. And it doesn't matter. David Johnson gets two times as much work as Duke Johnson does. Duke is a better yard per carry runner. He's a better yard per reception receiver.

[Mike Wright]

That's the Duke Johnson career.

[Andy Holloway]

That is the experience of Duke Johnson.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. This dude just can't give him an opportunity.

[Andy Holloway]

But Houston's storyline, as we move on in this ranking show, the storyline for Houston is vacated targets, do they go to Brandon Cooks? Do they go to Will Fuller? Do they go to David Johnson? It's probably some combination of all of those things and David Johnson simply going to be on the football field more than a lot of running backs out there. Hopefully that equates to something. Last year he couldn't run. He hasn't run in Arizona. Just for the record, he has not run in Arizona. Well, for two two plus seasons. He caught passes big time receptions and DeSean Watson has the ability to, you know, just extend the play. And if David Johnson sitting in the middle of the field, he's going to find him. He's going to have opportunity.

[Mike Wright]

To me, that's where everything comes down to for David Johnson. If I don't really care about his market share when it comes to rushing attempts, like he could get 250 attempts. I don't think it's going to be great. And I know you're comp. Well, Carlos Hyde did it. I think at this point Carlos Hyde is a better rusher than what we. Than David Johnson. To say that David Johnson can hit that. Like Andy said, we haven't seen it in multiple, multiple years here. Now for David Johnson it comes down to the pass catching. Do we see 50 plus receptions from David Johnson? If that's the case then he'll return value. He'll be a running back 15 to running back 20.

[Andy Holloway]

I have to wonder how comfortable he was in that too. Is very offense ever.

[Mike Wright]

That too.

[Andy Holloway]

He just, even when he got. It's one of those things that stacks on itself. It's like I never get a chance. So when I get a chance I got to do everything which makes me try to do everything. He, you know, stringing every play to the outside and I was just on.

[Mike Wright]

A pod talking about that. The, the fit where he always looked uncomfortable and I, you know, it was perhaps maybe he's a little busted. But let's give David Johnson a little bit of benefit here and say maybe it was the system. If an NFL running back has to take any time at all to think what should I be doing instead of bad, instead of just muscle memory reacting. Your body knows exactly what to do in this scheme. You're toast. You're going to look hesitant. The you're up against the 0.1% athletes in the world. You will not have success if you have to think at all.

[Jason Moore]

Man, I hope, I hope this is the case because I really have, you know, I say I don't like it but I look back at my drafts that I've done, especially the real ones. I have shares of David Johnson. I am drafting him at a Value. And you say he hasn't been good on the ground in a couple years. That's true. But if it was, you know, the Cliff Kingsbury system that didn't match up, think about the year prior. Right. I mean, that was the Josh Rosen, no offensive line, worst offense in the history of the NFL. Yeah. Nobody. You know, I don't think you put anyone there and they come out on top.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. More stories of why David Johnson is going to be what he was five years ago. I don't know if I could do it, but we rank him a lot higher than his ADP, which is what we do with the number 16 running back on our list. Le'Veon Bell and I have faced this decision. Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson in many a draft. And I'm, I'm like, at the flip the coin, I actually end up taking Lev Bell more often than not.

[Mike Wright]

It's levy on Bell for me because.

[Andy Holloway]

Of the ceiling and my rank have them back to back and I probably need to flip flop because Lev Bell is with the Leonard Fournette category of great opportunity to score touchdowns, didn't work.

[Mike Wright]

Out, 245 carries turned into three rushing touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

There's a lot of positive praise for Lev Bell around New York in terms of, you know, his work, what they're expecting out of him, the way he looks. And you got nothing special all last year, but you did get, you know, 10 games where he was a top 24 back. So you're not going to get burned by him. You just hope that you get a handful of games where he's scoring a couple of times. He's got the high receiving totals.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, I think when I compare these two players, the higher baseline is Le'Veon Bell because of the known receiving work, you know, that he's going to have the ball passed to him a lot. He had 78 targets, 66 receptions last year. We have no idea. You know, DeSean Watson hasn't really been a guy that's targeted the running back heavily, but then he hasn't had a pass catching back like Johnson, like David Johnson, who goes a little bit more downfield and can catch some deeper routes, you know, but it's. I think that you're limited here by Adam Gase, Sam Darnold, the Jets offense as a total. So I look at Lev Bell as a guy who is a low floor, low ceiling. I don't see a great year for Lev Bell in the cards. I know his touchdowns, you say it should be higher from the touches. He Had. I think he gets fewer touches this season and, well, you.

[Andy Holloway]

You have him ranked exactly where he finished.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's. That's basically where I.

[Andy Holloway]

Which is still five spots ahead of ADP.

[Jason Moore]

His range of outcomes, which is 17.

[Andy Holloway]

By the way, last year was RB17 on a disgusting year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. The range of outcomes to me is very limited. I feel like he's going to be a safe meh.

[Andy Holloway]

Like 16 to 17. Yeah, that's somewhere around floor ceiling. Yeah. No, I mean, it's hard not to look at the team and the surroundings when you see if the offensive line makes a significant move forward.

[Mike Wright]

That's a big question.

[Andy Holloway]

That's where ceiling can be achieved for Le'Veon Bell.

[Mike Wright]

They tried.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he can be on RB1. Mike, do you.

[Mike Wright]

Do I think he can be an RB one?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, 100%.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, so we see a little bit higher ceiling than Jason sees, and it's been. It's been gross in New York. So I don't. I mean, I don't blame anybody for passing on that experience. For 16 games in 2020. Chris Carson, 17 on our list. Melvin Gordon at 18. Melvin Gordon's actually going. Both of these guys, 16 and 17 by ADP. So we're a little bit lower, I think, on Melvin Gordon. At least. Mike is.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

So Carson Gordon, what are the headlines here you would want to get into? I mean, Carson last year from weeks one through 10 was the RB7. Everything got off to a great my guy type of start. Except for the fumbles.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I would say the vast majority of the season was excellent for Chris Carson. The headline, to me, that is Chris Carson is. We are still waiting for that full confirmation that he's going to go. He's going to be the guy Week one, once that confirmation comes in, he's too low for our rankings. And Jay, you have him the lowest right now at 21 tomorrow. Pete Carroll, peach cobbler comes out and says he's smacking on his gum, but says, Chris Carson, he is good to go. He's starting week one. How high do you think he jumps in your rankings or does he just stay there at 21?

[Jason Moore]

No, I mean full. Full bill of health. He's ready to go. He's a full go, which we could find that out today. I mean, you know, more field work is going to happen at camp starting, you know, this week. So when. When I know he's got a full, healthy slate, I'm going to move him up. Because you look at all these players, we're talking about the question marks, right? Is Love Bell going to be better than he was last year? I don't know. How's David Johnson? Is he going to catch the ball? Melvin Gordon's got a new team. Chris Carson, the only question is the health. So if he's healthy coming in, he was already successful. He was already the lead back on this team. It's a great offense. There's continuity everywhere. I would rather take my shot on Chris Carson from this range. But one thing I did want to point out, we're talking about, I mean listen to these, listen to these running backs. We haven't got to Todd Gurley and you know, James Conner yet. These just giant question marks in these rounds. 3, 4, 5. And the wide receivers are so good there. This is, this is why like when I, when I, when I go through this, I don't want this decision. I don't want to be like, well.

[Mike Wright]

Who do you have?

[Jason Moore]

You're going Melvin Gordon or Lev Bell? I don't want.

[Andy Holloway]

So does that mean you're passing on wide receivers early so that you don't have to make this decision because you like the wide receivers here so much, you don't want to make the Lev Bell, David Johnson, Chris Carson, Melvin Gordon decision at all?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I feel like we're always about stay water, let the draft come to you and that's the right way to play it. You know, don't go in saying I'm running back, running back. But for some reason this year, and I think this is the reason, the question marks in this category of running back and the wide receivers that I just love that are being pushed down because of how early running backs are going. I just feel like I can't imagine not going running back, running back right now in a draft due to these players.

[Andy Holloway]

Carson and Nick Chubb were not very different stat line wise last year. I mean, obviously Chubb had a couple hundred more rushing yards, but opportunity wise receptions, those type of numbers, very similar. And then Melvin Gordon, nobody knows what's going to happen here in Denver. Is Drew Locke legit? Is Melvin Gordon going to get the majority of the workload? I think so.

[Mike Wright]

There are to me, for Melvin Gordon, the theme of the day now is just questions. And they are just the wheel barrel full of questions.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you. It's a barrel. I forgot you are familiar with the barrel term. Look, two years, $16 million.

[Mike Wright]

The question marks are just so outrageous of he has been an inefficient runner his entire career. Yes, teams View him as a guy who can handle the workload, be a true three down running back. But he has made his fantasy points with touchdowns and he has made his fantasy points with receptions. Looking at the Austin Eckler situation of, oh well, holy crap, you know his targets are going to go way down. Why is that? Because he doesn't have Philip Rivers throwing him the ball anymore. Melvin Gordon also does not have Philip Rivers throwing him the ball. We saw a very small sample of Drew Locke, but in that small sample it was I don't throw to my running backs. And Philip Lindsay has been great for two years. A thousand yard rusher both seasons, if I'm remembering that correctly. Meanwhile, you have Melvin Gordon who's done that one time. Like I know he has the money. The money says Melvin Gordon's the guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Because I think people don't realize this. Melvin Gordon was so tremendously good last year. He is, like you said, it's on the receiving area.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

He had to contend with Austin Eckler last year. Still ends up the RB9 on a team that was going downhill to the point of drafting Justin Herbert in the first round. RB9 from week seven on, continuing with Austin Eckler. I think the reason we're much higher than you is because we expect just about all the receiving work to go to Melvin Gordon in this offense. Is that what you believe, Jason?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, They've never utilized Philip Lindsey as a pass catching back. They brought in Melvin Gordon, I believe to be a more diverse skill set. I mean, they paid him a lot of money and I think they know that they need that outlet for Drew Lock. So that is the difference here. It's just a matter of will he get the receptions or will he not? He has his entire career. He's being paid to do what he's done in the past and I think.

[Andy Holloway]

Not a great offensive line situation.

[Jason Moore]

I think that the team is better with Melvin Gordon. I really do. I know he's not efficient, but you know, some players have nose for the goal line and he always has. He's well rounded, he can carry, you know, a heavy workload. So I do think that they are moving on more from Philip Lindsay. Not that he's not going to be involved, but he, he's not the pass catching guy and he's not the goal line guy. And if Melvin Gordon is both of those things, then, you know, you might not love the offensive outlook.

[Andy Holloway]

So does he get 250 touches, Mike? 250 total touches?

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

So then it comes down to touchdowns. Yeah, we Brought that stat up before. We're 95% of running backs over the last 25 years when they hit 250 and eight touchdowns. That makes them top 15.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So does he get to eight?

[Mike Wright]

But is it, you know, is he averaging five targets a game like he did last year?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, that.

[Mike Wright]

To me, the answer is a resounding no.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. But if he gets 250 touches overall, that's going to do enough damage to probably have him higher than where you have him ranked right now.

[Mike Wright]

Melvin Gordon is. He's just one of those players. I accept my fate. If I'm wrong on Melvin Gordon, so be it.

[Andy Holloway]

That's one of those lessons for fantasy football. Don't. You're not backed into taking any of these guys. I mean, just because they're in an ADP list or on the UDK rankings. If you don't believe something about a player, it's your team. Please don't take them.

[Mike Wright]

Move on to and I won't.

[Andy Holloway]

There's enough running backs in this tier of.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I just remembered. He's on my league of record teams.

[Andy Holloway]

Congratulations, Mike. You said, oh, I won't. But he's one of your keepers.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, he is.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, that'll be. I mean, it's terrible. Yeah. I mean, it's kind of win. Win for you now. Right? If he does great, at least he pays out for you in fantasy.

[Mike Wright]

Look, Malvigor is gonna be amazing.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Change. Give me a whole new perspective now that you rediscovered it.

[Jason Moore]

I think it's called a win loss. Like it's just hedged because he's going to lose somewhere.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. You're either going to be right on your prediction and your team's going to suck or you win.

[Jason Moore]

Let's talk about a guy that Mike loves, Todd Gurley. Take it away, Mike. Tell about how great a receiving back Todd Gurley is.

[Andy Holloway]

What the guy been here done that.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Gurley at 19, by the way. James Conner at 20. To round out this episode. Gurley. I almost want to refer people just to the Fire and Ice episode because.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly where you need to go.

[Andy Holloway]

We had a huge discussion on to. Mike is not a believer. If there was a. You know, we have our. My guys every year. If we had the like negative version of that where you picked three busts for the season. I guarantee you Ty Gurley is in Mike's.

[Mike Wright]

You are 100% correct in his.

[Andy Holloway]

Not my guys.

[Mike Wright]

That is correct.

[Jason Moore]

Your guys, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley.

[Mike Wright]

Do you guys want to try and make the case for him?

[Andy Holloway]

Of course not. I would rather be dead.

[Jason Moore]

I kind of do. I know that I stand apart from you two but I do think that, you know, he is a. He is way not close. I think he last year just as a player realized he was inefficient. He wasn't being thrown to on the routes run but he's still way better than Devonta Freeman. Devonta Freeman looked like a running back who was dungeon completely incapable of doing anything on the field. They moved on and they're going to need him. There's a lot of vacated targets. He is. The depth chart is just him.

[Mike Wright]

So this is a good offense and Brian Hill.

[Jason Moore]

I am not worried about Brian Hill. I'm not worried about Edo Smith. I'm the depth chart to me is Todd Gurley and Brian Hill and fodder. Sure. I mean, yes, that is the official depth chart but I'm not worried about them. So if he does get past two more, maybe he's not worthy of every single one of those passes. But it doesn't matter if he ends up with 50 receptions which is well within the range of outcomes for a team that's always passed the ball to the running back for a good offense and 200 plus carries. He's going to be valuable for fantasy.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, he's being drafted much higher than all of us, including Jason. He's drafted as the RB15. He's got great name value. He's got. He's going into an offense that we know will be good. It's all about opportunity for me. Does he get enough of it? Does Brian Hill exist? I think is a question that has now been brought up. Does he have a role in this backfield Connor at 20 rounds out this episode? I, you know, James Connor is an interesting case because I think you're going to end up. His average draft position is probably not really where he's going to finish.

[Mike Wright]

I totally agree.

[Andy Holloway]

There are a handful of guys in that category. I would actually say Chris Carson's in the exact same category. If we don't get any clarity on his health, like if he just status quo right now, you'd be like, well, Carson's either going to be the guy and be much higher than this spot, which is the same case for Connor, or he's going to get hurt and fumble, which is the same. You know, if Conor gets hurt, which he's always done, I mean then you got a huge problem and he's not the RB18 where he's being drafted. But if he's not hurt. He's probably not the RB18 where he's being drafted. He's probably much higher than that.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he will. He will get an absolute boatload of opportunity. He is the best running back on the team. Now there's whispers from the bushes that Jalen Samuels will not make the team, which, look, that's probably more a. A Note for Anthony McFarland than it is for James Conner. But time after time after time, Coach Tomlin has showed us who he is. And that's a coach that wants one running back on the field. Thank you, Jason. That was excellent. And if James Connor is on the field all the time with an actual healthy hall of Fame quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, then James Conner is going to be very, very valuable for fantasy. He does, he does appear to be fragile, especially last year. It was rough. It wasn't just missed games. It would be games you thought you could depend on him and then he would leave with another nagging injury.

[Andy Holloway]

But when does that frustration boil over for the team? If it happens early as well? Because they both the GM and the head coach came out and said, look, this is not what they were actually frustrated with Connor. It wasn't like, oh, he had bad luck. It was like this. This is not how we can't have a running back like this.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Look, ability to be on the field availability is an ability to two coaches.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Very nice.

[Jason Moore]

Let me ask you this philosophically. Take the name out. It's not James Conner. It's just an idea. You are in. Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

I like it. Yeah, I like it.

[Jason Moore]

Here you go. You are in the back of the third. You're at the turn. So you could. The last pick in the third round, first pick in the fourth round. And I say to you, I am your local wizard. And I say to you, I will give you a player who you have a 50% chance that he is a top five running back in fantasy and a 50% chance that you waste the pick. You waste the pick. Would you do that at the three, four turn? Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

That's James Conner. So draft them. Because that's how I view him.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think the top five potentials there with the other running backs and that would be my only dispute. Like if you said top 10 there.

[Jason Moore]

If he plays 16 games and is healthy all season, top 8.

[Mike Wright]

I agree with that.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, he, he was, he was the running back six in 13 games two years ago. So he is talented.

[Andy Holloway]

I just like other guys more.

[Mike Wright]

Sure you'd have to be.

[Andy Holloway]

You'd be kicking Alvin Camara down the line or you're kicking, you know, Derek Henry down the line, but when he's been on the field and he's been healthy, he's been dominant.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

Will you get that 50? 50 might be generous.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I guess, I guess that's, that's, that's maybe the real problem.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, we're going to have to close this thing down. I don't want any explanation here. I just want an answer. Favorite running back outside the top 20. For me, it's David Montgomery.

[Mike Wright]

Mark Ingram, Jonathan Taylor.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. We want to thank Pristine Auction for sponsoring this show. You can check them [e-mail] Code Ballers. You get a $10 credit. Hundreds and hundreds of daily auctions on some amazing sports memorabilia. Mike just cracked open a Blake Jarwin jersey. I don't know if that's a secret. If you got $10 credit. Oh, it's on the wall. Oh, my gosh. Guess it's not a secret, is it? Check them out. Pristineoxen.com Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Football Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter ffballers and Foot glan. Don't forget the Navy Federal Credit Union offers members great ways to lower their interest rates and save more. You can get their low rate card, the platinum card, to pay off some purchases over time or refinance your auto loan with Navy Federal at Navy Federal members are the mission. Visit navyfederal.org to learn more. Insured by NCUA Credit and Collateral subject to approval, refinance loan must be at least $5,000 to be eligible for the $200 message and data rates may apply. Visit navyfederal.org for more information.