Regress or Impress? 2nd Half Studs + Age Cliffs - Fantasy Football Podcast for 3/27

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "Regress or Impress? 2nd Half Studs + Age Cliffs" (Released March 27, 2025)

Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

---

Introduction

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, the expert trio—Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright—dive deep into the "Regress or Impress" segment. The focus is on evaluating five players who showcased stellar performances in the second half of their respective seasons. The hosts analyze whether these players are poised to maintain their impressive performances or if they're likely to experience a regression. Additionally, the discussion touches on age cliffs and trading strategies in dynasty leagues.

---

Regress or Impress Segment

1. Jared Goff (Quarterback)

• Performance Overview: Jared Goff exhibited a significant uptick in his performance during the second half of the season, increasing his points per game from 17.6 to 23.7. His offensive contributions were so substantial that Mike Wright remarked, “[25:52] Jason Moore: [...] Goff had the kind of year that is very worthy of an MVP.”

• Analysis: The hosts debate whether Goff's surge was a one-time fluke or indicative of sustained excellence. Jason Moore expresses skepticism about Goff maintaining his MVP-caliber performance, stating, “[26:06] [...] You will get something with your first, you're retooled, you're still competitive.”

• Conclusion: While acknowledging Goff's impressive second half, the consensus leans towards expecting a regression in his performance next season. The reliance on a stronger offense, which may not persist, further supports this outlook.

2. Jerry Judy (Wide Receiver)

• Performance Overview: Jerry Judy transitioned from being the wide receiver 50th in points per game in the first half to the 17th in the second half, showcasing remarkable improvement.

• Analysis: The hosts examine whether Judy's improvement stems from his own development or external factors such as better quarterback play. Jason Moore highlights, “[32:14] [...] No, not just one. I think it was both. I think, I think he was a more consistent player on a snap to snap basis.”

• Conclusion: Despite the impressive second half, doubts remain about Judy's ability to sustain such high performance levels consistently. The fluctuating quarterback situation adds uncertainty to his future output.

3. Chase Brown (Running Back)

• Performance Overview: Chase Brown elevated his game from running back 19th in the first half to the 8th in the second half, driven by increased volume and utilization in the offense.

• Analysis: Jason Moore discusses the potential for Chase Brown to continue his ascent, citing historical data on running back performance in dynasty leagues. “[41:36] Jason Moore: [...] This is one of the best bets you can make at ADP RB13.”

• Conclusion: The hosts are bullish on Chase Brown's future performance, anticipating that he will either sustain or further improve his standing, making him a valuable asset in fantasy drafts.

4. Bucky Irving (Running Back)

• Performance Overview: Bucky Irving made a significant leap from running back 27th in the first half to the 6th in the second half, demonstrating explosive potential as a rookie.

• Analysis: Mike Wright emphasizes Irving's exemplary performance metrics, pointing out his yards per carry and missed tackles per attempt. “[52:26] Jason Moore: [...] RB9 is a fantastic addition.”

• Conclusion: The consensus is that Bucky Irving is set to impress in the upcoming season. His demonstrated talent and role within the offense position him as a strong candidate for continued high performance.

5. Johnny Smith (Tight End)

• Performance Overview: Johnny Smith skyrocketed from tight end 20th to the 1st position in the second half of the season, becoming a top-tier fantasy asset.

• Analysis: The hosts debate the sustainability of Smith's performance, considering team dynamics and quarterback stability. Jason Moore notes, “[57:23] [...] It's all about how the team utilizes him moving forward.”

• Conclusion: Despite some uncertainties regarding his role and team strategy, the hosts agree that Johnny Smith remains an impressive addition and expect him to continue delivering strong fantasy numbers.

---

Age Cliffs and Trading Strategies in Dynasty Leagues

Discussion on Trading Away Players:

Mike Wright initiates a conversation on the strategic trading of players nearing their peak performance age. “[05:03] Mike Wright: [...] What am I getting and how confident am I in what I am getting?”

• Age Considerations: The hosts discuss the optimal age to trade wide receivers and running backs to maximize return before potential decline. Mike suggests trading wide receivers around 28 years old to secure a valuable haul, including younger talent and draft picks.

• Examples: They cite successful trades such as trading Julio Jones for CD Lamb and first-round picks, emphasizing the importance of timing trades before players hit their age cliffs.

• Strategy: Jason Moore advocates for focusing on building a strong foundation with young wide receivers while strategically managing running backs who have shorter peak periods. “[10:18] Jason Moore: [...] It's not a true foundational. It to me is not a good way to build the foundation of your team.”

Key Takeaways:

1. Trade Timing:

   • Trade players before they reach the age where their performance may decline sharply (age cliffs).
   • Secure younger assets and draft capital in return.

2. Player Evaluation:

   • Assess individual player circumstances, such as contract situations and team dynamics, rather than relying solely on age.

3. Strategic Rebuilding:

   • Focus on retooling rather than full-scale rebuilding to maintain competitiveness.

---

News and Updates

The hosts briefly touch upon recent NFL news, including:

• Russell Wilson’s Quarterback Situation: Mike and Jason discuss the Steelers' decision to switch quarterbacks from Russell Wilson to Jameis Winston, analyzing the implications for team performance and fantasy prospects.

• Stefan Diggs’ Contract: The acquisition of Stefan Diggs by the New England Patriots is examined, highlighting concerns about the "stank tax" and its impact on the Patriots' salary cap and offensive dynamics.

• Chris Godwin and Aaron Rodgers: Updates on players’ recoveries and potential retirement discussions around Aaron Rodgers are mentioned.

---

Final Thoughts and Conclusions

As the episode wraps up, the hosts encapsulate their main points:

• Regress or Impress:

  • Jared Goff and Jerry Judy are seen leaning towards regression.
  • Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, and Johnny Smith are poised to impress in the upcoming season.

• Age Cliffs Strategy:

  • Emphasize trading players strategically based on age and performance trends to maximize long-term team success.

Jason Moore concludes with a strong endorsement for targeting players who have shown breakout potential, while Mike Wright underscores the importance of data-driven decision-making in dynasty leagues.

---

Notable Quotes

• Mike Wright [03:09]: "These situations are one where you always need to do your best to try to investigate and get it right."

• Jason Moore [05:10]: "Timing the market, timing the market, timing."

• Mike Wright [07:03]: "For me, when I'm looking at running back and wide receiver, wide receiver, I'm pretty confident in when I like to trade them on an age basis."

• Jason Moore [26:06]: "If you're asking at quarterback ADP 11, will he finish ahead of that ADP fantasy finish-wise on the course of the season, I would say probably. He'll probably be top 10."

• Mike Wright [43:25]: "Damian Pierce. It's hard to remember now, but going into his sophomore year, everyone was hot and bothered for him."

• Jason Moore [57:23]: "It's all about how the team utilizes him moving forward."

---

Conclusion

This episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast offers a comprehensive analysis of players who excelled in the latter half of the season, providing listeners with valuable insights for their fantasy football strategies. The discussion on age cliffs and trading strategies in dynasty leagues equips fantasy managers with the knowledge to make informed decisions, balancing immediate gains with long-term team building.

For more in-depth analysis and actionable advice, listeners are encouraged to tune into future episodes and engage with the Fantasy Footballers community.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Some people just know they could save hundreds on car insurance by checking Allstay first. Like, you know to check that you packed the grill first before leaving for the tailgate. Now you've got seven hangry friends and a cooler full of uncooked brats. Checking first is smart, so check Allstay first for a quote that could save you hundreds. You're in good hands with Allstay. Savings vary, subject to terms, conditions and availability. Allstate Fire and Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates, Northbrook, IL.

[Jason Moore]

In order to support our show, we need the help of some great advertisers and we want to make sure those advertisers are ones you actually want to hear about. But we need to learn a little bit about you to make that possible. So Please go to podsurvey.com Footballers take a quick anonymous survey that will help us get to know you better. That way we can bring on advertisers you won't want to skip. Once you've completed the quick survey, you, you can enter for a chance to win a hundred dollar Amazon gift card. Terms and conditions apply. Again, that's podsurvey.com F O O T B A L L E R S thanks for your help.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and M.

[Jason Moore]

Oh.

[Unknown]

Welcome in, Andy, Mike and Jason, the fantasy footballers. Jason wearing the lightest blue he's worn. This matches my eyes in a long time. Looking like an Easter luncheon happening.

[Mike Wright]

I'm not gonna lie to you. It's laundry day at my house. I didn't have.

[Jason Moore]

It looks good.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm not. I don't.

[Jason Moore]

You look fresh as a spring breeze.

[Unknown]

There was a time in which on laundry day, you would have worn dirty black shirts.

[Jason Moore]

Dirty black shirts and basketball shorts.

[Mike Wright]

Well, yeah, I'm not wearing any shorts today, but that's the desk, place and job.

[Unknown]

It's the block that. Welcome in one and all. No, it looks good. It's still your. Your patented polo. I mean, you wouldn't be caught dead without.

[Mike Wright]

If I don't have a caller, I'm not a professional.

[Jason Moore]

No callers, no buttons on her.

[Unknown]

Trying to hide. I don't know what I'm talking about. All right, it's Thursday, March 27th, and we are, we are back. We've got a regress or impress episode. This one's going to be a lot of fun. We're actually looking at five players that had amazing second halves to their season fantasy wise, and whether we believe they're going to continue succeeding or maybe Maybe it was just a, you know, kind of a half a season wonder.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean, these situations are one of those where you always need to do your best to try to investigate and get it right. You've got the Almond Ross St. Browns where you see the breakout, you see something special happen. And there was so much debate. You know, it's like, oh, there was, there were injuries around him. It was the situation. But also he did what he did. And it turns out with, you know, hindsight being 20 20, he good. And so this is. Yeah, I mean there's, there's a handful of players on today's episode as well, where we're specifically talking about people that I didn't know they were that good. What I saw was like, I believe it's real. And so we just hope we get that right.

[Unknown]

Also have some news to catch up on. I have a quick question that we'll get to momentarily. A reminder. You can watch the show on YouTube. YouTube.com the fantasy footballer subscribe, click the bell. You'll be notified when we have new episodes in season. We do live streams. Mike does a Sunday live every week and you'll want to watch it over there. Make sure you drop us a review follow on your podcast. Players, Spotify, Apple, wherever you're listening. And the draft kit, the UDK, available at a discounted preorder price, releases June 1 in full ultimate DraftKit.com to learn more about that. That'll be all of our, you know, all of our rankings, including stat projections for every single player, our sleepers, breakouts, busts and values and player profile videos.

[Mike Wright]

And all the tiers.

[Unknown]

Yeah, and the draft analyzer, a lot of things. It's our kind of pinnacle product. You know, it's what we work the team here works very hard on every year. And you can learn about that at ultimate draft kit.com the quick question we have is from Matt in Tacoma asks in Dynasty leagues, what are the typical ages to get maximum value trading away a wide receiver or a running back?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean, if you're playing in a dynasty league, getting those things right is critical.

[Jason Moore]

Timing the market, timing the market, timing.

[Mike Wright]

The lifespan of the player is especially critical. And obviously this is an individual thing. This is different for each player. So when we talk here in generalities, you've got to then apply kind of the logic to the individual players. This guy an outlier, you know, like Derek Henry is not like any other player that has been in the league for quite some time.

[Jason Moore]

Derek Henry is going to personally skew and like ruin our average.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

We have to remove him from sample.

[Mike Wright]

Take the outliers out just so we have a chance.

[Unknown]

Fred Jackson, Derek Henry, Emmett Smith. We just don't worry about them.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, exactly. For me, when I'm looking at running back and wide receiver, wide receiver, I'm pretty confident in when I like to trade them on an, on an age basis. That one's 28 years old. 28 is where. Because what I'm wanting to do when I trade a player is I want to get a haul. I want to trade them while they're still valuable. 28 is not the age, Cliff. 28 is not. So this is for this year. I was looking at all the wide receivers that kind of fit this bill who could get a haul. There's only one this year that's going to be basically that age range who can get a haul, and that's A.J. brown. A.J. brown's awesome. I'm not saying trade A.J. brown because he's going to fall off. What I am saying is AJ Brown will net you a haul. People will pay up. You will get a young stud wide receiver and a first round pick. And if that young wide receiver ends up hitting and being very good and you, you get something with your first, you're retooled, you're still competitive. And then you fast forward two years from now, you're not going to get anything from A.J. brown. Once he turns 30, you might just hold on to him and get plenty of years of value.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. You get to the point where the.

[Unknown]

Mike Evans of the. Yeah, it's not worthy world.

[Jason Moore]

It's not worth trading those guys anymore because the value to your weekly roster is greater than someone is going to trade for.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So that's, that's kind of different.

[Unknown]

It's the degrees of might. Okay. It's what am I getting and how confident am I in what I am getting? Yeah, I mean, that's the biggest challenge. Because you don't want to. Like, this is not a, that's the age you like to trade them, but that's not a prescription to trade them at all costs.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Unknown]

Is what I'm saying. Because it's like you can make, you can go trade AJ Brown and get a haul, but make sure that you're very strongly convicted about the players you're receiving.

[Mike Wright]

Absolutely. I mean, we've, we've personally done this in our main dynasty league several times. Like, my best trade was I traded away Julio Jones at the peak. Like he was as hot as possible. I think he was about 28, somewhere around there, maybe maybe 29. I got CD Lamb, a young rookie and a first round pick that turned into a great pick and obviously. And then. And then Julio Jones. Poof. And evaporated and disappeared. Andy, you did this many times. I did, yeah. You did this with. You've done this with quarterbacks. You traded away I believe was it Mahomes and for Josh Allen plus or you had one of those. You also did it with Todd Gurley. You traded away him after his hot start. You got Dalvin Cook plus picks. And so I do think that there is a place in dynasty leagues where that is the right methodology with a running back. It's less to me about age, it's more about like contract situation. It's worth noting some data that you know, early breakouts, you know 21 to 24 peak performance for running max are 24 to 26. That's the age where they really are monstrously hot.

[Unknown]

So which for wide receivers is 25 to 29, right?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. They go a little older. So maybe a 26 year old running back. You make that trade, you trade away Jonathan Taylor and it's not to say he's not going to have a great season coming up. It's just if you can get a ton and retool in dynasty, fill the coffers and still have talent, you usually should.

[Unknown]

Mike, how do you feel about looking at running backs in more of a one year basis in dynasty like in one year windows. Like is there a world where it's advisable to kind of. Because the shelf life for their peak is so small, because the age cliff is so young that maybe the prescription for dynasty at running back position is just looking in one year windows because planning ahead there can be difficult on it can. You know we have draft picks every year that fill out. Travis Etienne was a top tier dynasty running back.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Unknown]

That wasn't above an age cliff that also now has a different maybe outlook and so I just wonder if you should. I'm thinking about this for myself. It's like at running back outside of a true outlier special and there's only.

[Jason Moore]

A talent, there's only a handful of those in the league at a particular time.

[Unknown]

Is there a world where we're less trading to plan for multi year runs of a player and more trading to plan for one year or maybe two year windows where look last year you could have gone and got Joe Mixon and used them for a year and been happy and you move on and you go, you you go set yourself up for a one year window somewhere. It's just a thought.

[Jason Moore]

No, I'm in. That would align with how I think about the position where you know, people, what's. I need startup dynasty draft advice and the quick go to one is always start your draft with wide receivers because they will be on your team for multiple years and they were running backs. It just, it can vanish so quickly that the actual dynasty peak age is smaller. The age where they decline, it's younger. So it's just, it's not a true foundational. It to me is not a good way to build the foundation of your team because you will have to rebuild sooner and as opposed to stock up on blue chip wide receivers and then just fill in the cracks with older running backs who you're like, no, I still see value for this player like Alvin Camara. Alvin Camara is going to have value this year. He will. Will the cliff hit him this year? I don't know.

[Mike Wright]

You're in a, if you're in a startup draft and you're going really, really late and you started early with wide receivers, you can grab someone that's going to matter for your team like an Aaron Jones, right. Is going to be like people don't even want him. He'll be playable, he'll be playable asset, you know. Or if you're not in your startup and you're wanting to trade like Andy saying for a one year rental there, there will be someone who this coming year if they're not a championship contender, Derek Henry again is like I want to get something for him. I know it's not going to last forever. Those are the type of players that you can just kind of get on the cheap to fill in those gaps. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So they, they are, they're not the foundation because I've just, I've seen so many too many teams. They build their team that way and for two years you're like holy crap, this team. When I pull it up on paper in the off season, I look at my team and I go, why am I even going to try? How can I possibly compete with this? And then that team is, is in full rebolt or full rebuild before, like before the end of the season.

[Mike Wright]

How could anyone last year have competed with my sensational team of Bijan Robinson, Breeze hall and Travis Etienne? I had three like top six startup running backs and now Travis ETN is dead. Breece hall is only dead to me.

[Unknown]

If there's any silver lining of your situation is that you get to talk about it to millions of people and be an example of the fact that you can look like you are invincible. And the thing is. And you would have been, just to be clear, you would have been beaten by somebody that was rolling out Chuba Hubbard, James Conner and Chase Brown last year. Yeah, that trifecta of players would have been a better situation.

[Mike Wright]

They wouldn't. They would have. Beats the snot out of me.

[Jason Moore]

And I'm not saying you can't win with those with. With that going on, but if you've been playing dynasty for any amount of time, rebuilds are. They're. It's Rocky, man. Sometimes a team can rebuild in one to two years. Sometimes you look at your league, you're like that team has been rebuilding for five seasons. And I'm a retool guy.

[Unknown]

I'm not a rebuild guy.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, you. You are the. You are the Rams, the New Orleans Saints, where you just keep pushing the salary cap forward, hoping that the salary cap grows enough that you'll be able to handle the hits to your personal salary cap. But as we like, as we've seen for the Saints.

[Unknown]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And. And the Rams, to a lesser extent, like the Rams had a period where it looked like things might be going sour. The Rams were able to pick up the pieces much quicker.

[Unknown]

I'm hoping I'm now Saints.

[Jason Moore]

Look, they're stuck in mediocrity.

[Unknown]

When the credit man shows up, you hide under the bed.

[Mike Wright]

You know what I mean?

[Jason Moore]

Don't answer the.

[Mike Wright]

Don't answer the door. Say your name.

[Unknown]

Hide under the bed.

[Mike Wright]

But he is not home.

[Unknown]

No. I haven't lived here in years. All right, moving on.

[Mike Wright]

News and notes from around the league.

[Unknown]

Well, I believe on our last episode when we were trying to have the fun discussion about Jameis Winston, I was like, yeah, but Russ is going to be their quarterback and Russell Wilson signs a one year deal.

[Jason Moore]

The people hate it.

[Mike Wright]

They're so angry.

[Jason Moore]

We hate it.

[Unknown]

There's no more.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, that's a long boo.

[Unknown]

There's no more opposite we hate it locker room speech than the Russell Wilson speech versus the Jameis Winston speech.

[Mike Wright]

I have.

[Unknown]

They're the most opposite.

[Mike Wright]

Russell Wilson's locker room speech.

[Unknown]

Do you.

[Andy Holloway]

Unlimited diarrhea.

[Unknown]

Yeah. How like Jameis Winston.

[Jason Moore]

Don't get me crazy.

[Unknown]

And authentic Russell Wilson crazy inauthentic.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but.

[Unknown]

But he's now the starting quarterback for the Giants. Or presumably I don't look.

[Jason Moore]

The Steelers infamously made the switch from a winning season with Justin Fields over to Russia. And it started awesome. It was the egg was all over my face because I thought it was a silly move. I'm like, you're winning with Fields. Roll with Fields, put Russ out there. Offense improves. They're looking Fantastic from week seven 14. They go six and one in that time with Russ and then Owen Ford end the season. And Russell Wilson looks like he shouldn't. He doesn't belong on a football field anymore, and I'm not. So, like, yes, he can play.

[Mike Wright]

He.

[Jason Moore]

But what is the point? What is the point is the Giants. You're not. Your coaching staff. You're not saving your job with Russell Wilson, you're not saving your job with Jameis. So why even invest money into Russell?

[Unknown]

So there's different.

[Jason Moore]

Just get Jameis and fix other stuff.

[Unknown]

So I don't disagree. And you can easily say, look, Pittsburgh, this deal, it's a 10.5 guaranteed deal. If Pittsburgh thought that Russ was their best open option, they would have brought him back immediately. Which means that they genuinely believe that Aaron Rodgers or somebody else that they find will be better than Russell Wilson for this team. Because it's not like Mike Tomlin's not up against it, right? Like, he's, He's. He's facing. I mean, I know he keeps coming up with these winning seasons, but there's a fatigue growing in Pittsburgh with the kind of.

[Jason Moore]

You don't win in the playoffs.

[Unknown]

Yeah, we don't win in the. We haven't won a playoff game in years. We haven't found our solution post Big Ben. We know that we can't win a Super bowl, much less a playoff game right now. And yet Russ wasn't the choice. It might be Aaron Rodgers or somebody else, but there's also the side with the Giants where you're like, okay, fill in the blank outside of Russell Wilson, is it. I mean, you're picking at six. There's a good chance that they could get Shadour maybe. But Shador is probably not bringing you further than Russ this year. Mind you, their win total did not change from three and a half wins. It went all the way to three.

[Mike Wright]

And a half wins.

[Unknown]

And we looked at the schedule. We. Three wins is. I think they'll get three.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And they're. They're. They're picking at three. Speaking of three.

[Unknown]

No, they're picking at six.

[Mike Wright]

The Giants.

[Unknown]

The Giants.

[Mike Wright]

The Giants are three. Six is the Raiders.

[Unknown]

Oh, you're right.

[Jason Moore]

So I, I think you have a very. It's a gamble. Of course, when you're talking about quarterbacks, I think there is a near 100% chance that Sanders is available at 3.

[Unknown]

Well then maybe they take it.

[Mike Wright]

I would agree that he's available. Whether they'll pull the trigger on that is very questionable. This is a coaching staff that really wants to win now to save their job, which is why they're going out and getting veteran quarterbacks. They've said this is not stopping them from taking a quarterback at three and I could see that happening. It's just what I mean, how do we not have cameras in there if a rookie has to come in under the tutelage of these two caricatures, what must CTV that would be can we.

[Unknown]

Get the Giants locker room for Hard Knocks just even a live cam again?

[Jason Moore]

I don't think the Giants will ever sign on to do that show again. No, they won't. No. You are under official orders from Roger Goodell and they say no, we're still not going to do it.

[Unknown]

Stefan Diggs three year deal with the New England Patriots 26 million guaranteed. He was the wide receiver 11 last year before injury averaging eight targets 62 receiving yards per game. He is 31.2 years old. This is the New England Patriots paying a stink. You called it a stank tax.

[Mike Wright]

Stank tax.

[Unknown]

This is the way that you acquire players when you are at the bottom of the league sometimes.

[Mike Wright]

Diggs is at the end of his career.

[Unknown]

The Christian Kirk contract, all good players.

[Mike Wright]

At the end of their career genuinely have to make the choice. Yes, they genuinely have to say do I take a discount to go play for a contender, try to get my super bowl, this is my last contract or do I take that money and this was a three year deal worth up to $69 million. That's a pretty nice deal for Stefan Diggs. So I don't blame him. And the truth is for the Patriots I don't like this is a bad like I can't believe how much money someone's giving out for this version of Stefan Diggs coming off a week 8 ACL. But I don't blame them because they have all the money to give their the salary cap was wide open. They have to pay players. They need wide receivers so bad.

[Unknown]

It's a huge upgrade for them.

[Mike Wright]

It is an upgrade for them and.

[Unknown]

Wouldn'T be an upgrade for every team.

[Mike Wright]

No, it's great for Drake May. I think this is, I think this makes a lot of sense for fantasy purposes. You have to be more, you know, I'm not bullish on Stefan Diggs, just changing Drake May into a fantasy superstar but it's certainly positive For Drake May.

[Unknown]

I'm open minded for Drake May this year. I already was.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's fair.

[Unknown]

So. But I'm also, I'm also scared because I was a guy that thought Will Levis might be able to get it done with a new head coach and that didn't happen. But I like the fact that they added somebody finally to a receiving room that, you know, needed it desperately. And we'll see what happens. I mean, Diggs, they say is healthy. They were healthy. He's healthy enough for them to.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, he's got to be ahead of schedule.

[Mike Wright]

It was reported that he is exactly on schedule, which is ahead of schedule. Which is being ahead of schedule is now on schedule. Okay. But they also said that he's supposed to be ready for week one. Original timeline from that surgery date, we would not have put it. We would have said a good chance to start on the pop. But what's been reported since the signing is that it looks like he will be ready for week one.

[Unknown]

All right, what else do we have? Chris Godwin hitting all the milestones in his rehab. We knew he was doing well. And Rodgers likely to play for the Steelers if he doesn't retire. Stop talking about him.

[Jason Moore]

It is, I mean, the, the only holdout now has to be on Rogers side of. He still thinks that he can weasel his way into the Minnesota Vikings and play for a Super bowl contending team, but it's. Dude, it's the Steelers. This is it. Go sign your contract. If you actually want to play, go to the Steelers. You have a chance to win. Stay away from my Vikings.

[Unknown]

We'll find out in the next six to eight months where he's going to play. All right, that is going to be it for the news. We'll take a break. We'll hit regress or impress. This show is sponsored by BetterHelp. Who is your support system? How have they changed your life? I know that I've had friends, family, pastors, a support system in my life that has included therapy and my community. And it's been helpful to me. And when you think about your favorite leaders, when you think about your favorite mentors, your idols, they do not have all of the answers, but they do know when to ask questions or to seek support from their community. We have a society that glorifies hyper independence and it's easy to forget that we're better when we have a support system behind us. BetterHelp is fully online making therapy affordable and convenient. And it serves over 5 million people worldwide. You can access a diverse Network of more than 30,000 credentialed therapists with a wide range of specialties. And the nice thing with better Help is that you can easily switch therapists anytime at no extra cost. Build your own support system with better help. Visit betterhelp.com footballers to get 10% off your first month. That's betterhelp. H-E-L-P.com footballers.

[Jason Moore]

Today's show is brought to you by our friends over at Indeed. Running a business is. It's very complicated. There's a lot of moving pieces, a lot of things happening and a lot of things happening at a fast pace. And sometimes you figure out that you need to hire people and sometimes you're like, man, I need to hire someone as of yesterday. Well, how can you find amazing candidates fast? Easy. Just use Indeed with Indeed's Sponsored Jobs, your post jumps to the top of the page for your relevant candidates so you can stand out and reach the people you want to reach faster. I know that we come off as just three knuckleheads who all we do is we talk, we make silly jokes for a living, but we run a legitimate business. We've had to hire a ton of people. We know just how important it is to get the right person in here and that's why Indeed is such an incredible service. Using Indeed makes that process just better. Get the people you need. Use that sponsored Jobs option and hire someone right now, a qualified person who's going to stick around with your business for years to come. There's no need to wait any longer. Speed up your hiring right now with Indeed and listeners of our show will get a $75 sponsored job credit. To get your jobs more [e-mail] footballers just go to indeed.com footballers right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com Footballers terms and conditions apply. Hiring Indeed is all you need.

[Mike Wright]

That don't impress me much. What is this? Being a body.

[Unknown]

I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

What are you doing?

[Unknown]

I don't know what I mean. The podcast listeners. Sometimes it's a blessing to only listen. Because whatever we just saw.

[Mike Wright]

But not today. Today. What was that you wanted to see?

[Jason Moore]

I looked pretty good.

[Mike Wright]

Unimpressive. Andy Holloway.

[Unknown]

Oh, I thought I looked great.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Unknown]

I mean, I was gold plated.

[Mike Wright]

You were gold plated.

[Unknown]

I mentioned it at the top. We're talking about some second half studs. Regress or impress. Will they keep up their second half pace? What do you guys believe? And will they deliver on their adp? Most importantly, right where they're being drafted. We'll start with a quarterback, Jared Goff. This is a player, you know, golf was 17.6 points per game in the first half. QB15 in the second half of the season, he jumped up to 23.7 points per game. Good enough for the quarterback. For, in fact, Goff had the kind of year that is very worthy of an mvp.

[Jason Moore]

I was so close, guys.

[Unknown]

You did. That was.

[Jason Moore]

I went bold prediction, top five and he was the MVP and he was the quarterback six. And he had a resume that frequently wins the mvp.

[Unknown]

If you had gone top five finish and top five MVP voting, there you go. You would have been there.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Quarterbacks with.

[Jason Moore]

Not very bold, though.

[Unknown]

Yeah, fair enough.

[Mike Wright]

Quarterbacks. Yeah, he's going to be.

[Jason Moore]

He's going to finish top five in the voting.

[Unknown]

I mean, but Goff top five in MVP voting, that's. I don't know. That seems bold still.

[Mike Wright]

But yeah, I mean, teams with 14 wins, whose quarterback threw for 4,635, which Jared Goff checks that box. You've got a handful of them. Dan Marino, Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, every single one of those players won the mvp. Patrick Mahomes did it twice. One of those years, he didn't win it and Jared Goff didn't win it this last year. But you were close.

[Unknown]

This was a year in which the dominator term was not as pronounced as in when he's at home in a dome. He was still three points a game better. But like you go back two years, he was 10 points a game better then he was six points a game better. So more even play home and road. It was an impressive year. I am a. You know, we all love Amon Radio. We like Sam Laporta, we like Jameer Gibbs in the passing game. We like Montgomery in the passing game. And I'm a big Jameson Williams fan. So all the weapons, the offensive line, everything is in place for, you know, the Lions, I think have the coaching staff or a head coach, I should say, at this point, to maintain a level of excellence and aggressiveness and all. You know, I just feel very confident that they have a system in place that goes beyond losing their offensive coordinator. Do you guys feel like that second half was just a little run for Jared Goff, or is he going to be in fantasy consideration?

[Jason Moore]

He'll always be in streaming consideration based on the matchup, but I'm going to have to. I would call this one a regress as the. When it really turned on for Jared Goff in the offense was when the offense had no choice but to go full throttle because of all the losses on the defensive side of the football. Like, I know they had a couple games here in the middle where they're holding opponents down, but generally speaking, if, like when they're winning these games where they're, they're scoring in the 20s, which, like, that's still a lot of points. I mean, the Lions scored so many freaking points per game in this season, it was outrageous. So you just. Naturally I would start my expectations saying they're not going to hit that again, because teams usually don't. But when the Lions are scoring, you know, 20 something points a game, Goff is, is fine. He's just fine. It's when the, it's when things really explode that you get the. You don't have to worry as much about all the rushing touchdowns. David Montgomery, like six points from every single game just go, that goes to David Montgomery because he's getting a rushing touchdown. That is just how the team operated last year. And so with the rest of the points, you just, you have to hope that Goff gets all the touchdowns. So I don't know that he's going to hit 37 again.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean, losing Ben Johnson and other offensive coaches is a slight problem, but it really is. If you just look at like the data of history, the teams that finished number one in scoring don't usually do that again the next year. And if you look at how they did this year, they scored 33.1 points per game.

[Jason Moore]

That's wild.

[Mike Wright]

That is wildly high. The gap between them and the number two team is about the same between two and seven. So they really did kind of lap the field with their points scored. It's just very unlikely that they repeat such a magical offensive system. Even if. If they're great, they could be top three next year in scoring, but that would still.

[Unknown]

What were they in 2023?

[Mike Wright]

Because I believe they were number three.

[Jason Moore]

They were high. And then if you had made the bet that they were going to regress.

[Mike Wright]

They were number four, they were number five.

[Unknown]

I just bring that up as the devil's advocate because you've got a top.

[Mike Wright]

They were great in 2023. Right? Right.

[Unknown]

Yeah. I mean, he was the quarterback seven in 2023. He was the quarterback six last year.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Unknown]

So you've got two consecutive top 10 years being drafted as the quarterback 11. If you buy the fact that this system, this team, the structure, the players, the talent are not going to go far off the mark Right. Because there's other things than just total points per game. Right. There's a. There's big plays. Right. There's Jameson Williams not being suspended for parts of the year or being more integral for big plays. And Sam Laporta going back to his touchdown total of 20, 23 and less rushing touchdowns. Maybe Montgomery's not as effective. There's just other ways.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, there are ways.

[Unknown]

I look at them like Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers offense. You've had two consecutive years with that system. The opposite coordinators changed, but the structure of the team and the talent is the same.

[Mike Wright]

I think the difference is consistency. Like, I know the home road splits were a little bit better for golf, but this year, which was his better year, where he was amazing and number six in fantasy, he was not actually like if you had him, if you started him every week, that wasn't a good process. 41% of his games hit 20 points. He was a C in consistency. He had some big games down the stretch when their defense was bad. More had to go on his shoulders. Without David Montgomery, I just don't. He's drafted, as you said, Quarterback 11.

[Unknown]

Yeah, I don't mind that discussion. I'm thinking of it in terms of fantasy finish. I wasn't thinking of it in terms of do I want to start him every week or anything like that. More just do I think over 17 weeks that he's going to have the kind of games with this offense and the talent to get to quarterback eight? Quarterback seven? I think probably so.

[Mike Wright]

I. If you're asking at quarterback 11, will he finish ahead of that ADP fantasy finish wise on the course of the season, I would say probably. He'll probably be top 10. He's been top 10 the last three years in a row. That doesn't make it a good pick. It would be a bad pick if you picked him at quarterback 11 and he finishes a quarterback 8 with a season like he had this year. That's not. That's not going to help you win championship games. That's why we have the Truth series.

[Unknown]

Yeah. The bigger discussion is just do you want him as an every week starter or a streamer? And I think we're all in the streamer category.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Unknown]

Jerry. Judy, though, this was an absolutely amazing story. You're talking about irrelevance in the first half of the season. Last year, 7.2 points per game, wide receiver 50. Soj. Same old Judy.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

I had no idea. Well, he was the wide receiver was going to go.

[Mike Wright]

He was the wide receiver 50 the year prior.

[Unknown]

Ah, soj.

[Mike Wright]

Soj.

[Unknown]

But the bye week, after the bye week, wide receiver five, 17.3 points per game.

[Jason Moore]

Pure magma.

[Unknown]

I mean, this was. This was one of, if not the best wide receiver you could have had during that time. So, you know, wide receiver 4 21, 1 19, 11 peak performances, consistency, target share yards per game, over 100 yards per game from weeks 11 through 18. Jameis did not play in weeks 16 through 18. Still had a top 24 finish with basically nobody at quarterback. This was the guy that when they went and made the acquisition of Jerry Judy and we're all kind of going, well, why are you doing that? This is what you hope you get from a player of that draft pedigree.

[Mike Wright]

And talent, drafted to be great top 15 pick in the first round who started week 17.

[Jason Moore]

Was that DTR or was it somebody else?

[Unknown]

It was DTR.

[Jason Moore]

Was it?

[Unknown]

I believe so.

[Jason Moore]

Jerry Judy had 18 targets. It took him 18 targets to get to 94 yards.

[Unknown]

That's that game.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Like that is. Is anyone.

[Unknown]

I still believe.

[Jason Moore]

Is anyone going to make the case for him? Because I would be out.

[Unknown]

I'm not going to. Nobody's going to make an impress if it means wide receiver 5.

[Jason Moore]

No, not even wide receiver.

[Unknown]

But I think. But do I, do I think he could be a wide receiver, too? I do. I think it could be a wide receiver, too. In Cleveland. I mean, Amari Cooper is long gone. He showed from weeks 11 on, when he had that opportunity, what he could do with target volume. This is not the Nick Chubb show anymore. I still believe Kirk Cousins will be a Cleveland Brown.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, so that you're. You're going with that, the projection. Yeah.

[Unknown]

I mean, I think we don't know.

[Jason Moore]

Who'S throwing to them yet.

[Unknown]

Well, that's a far cry from wide receiver 50 to wide receiver 24, which would be a wide receiver 2. And I think he's in that. That kind of a jump.

[Mike Wright]

Well, he's been there the year prior to being wide receiver 50. The Soj. He was the wide receiver 20. So we know that's in his range of outcomes. He can finish as a wide receiver, too. He's done it before.

[Unknown]

25.9 years old.

[Mike Wright]

He is. Yeah, he's young. He's not a bad wide receiver. But let's just talk about his talent. Did you see. Did you believe that he was more talented during the second half of last year as far as his ability, his. You know, did he. Did he grow up on the NFL field or did he just have different Quarterback play. Like, was it both or just one?

[Unknown]

It was definitely not just one. I mean, I think it was both. I think, I think he was a more consistent player on a snap to snap basis. Yes. And I think it came with confidence, it came with big performances. I mean, he was on pace for 121 receptions, for 1700 yards and six and a half touchdowns in that stretch.

[Jason Moore]

And had 80 targets.

[Unknown]

He had 142 yard game, a 235 yard game, a 108. This was. Oh, I can do that. Yeah, that's what I saw.

[Jason Moore]

The Browns threw the ball 661 times last year. Like, that's not. That's not Stefanski football. That's not Cleveland Browns football. I would.

[Unknown]

His ADP has got to be low.

[Mike Wright]

I will say this. His ADP right now is wide receiver 35.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Unknown]

I'm happy.

[Mike Wright]

He should absolutely beat that.

[Unknown]

I'm happy with that.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, the real question here is quarterback, and we don't have the answer. Whether Kenny Pickett's gonna be playing, whether it's going to be short Sanders, whether it's whoever. We don't know who's throwing the ball. And it makes a humongous difference.

[Unknown]

Is there anyone will as ADP change with any of the answers that you just possibly said?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, well, not with the answers I said.

[Unknown]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

But you know, there's rumors of Kirk Cousins being the one to eventually land there. If Kirk Cousins were there.

[Unknown]

Jerry Judy, I don't think he skyrockets though in adp.

[Mike Wright]

Probably not high enough.

[Unknown]

I mean, I. If I could get him in the wide receiver 30 or below. I feel like I'm stealing because not many players being drafted at that level could perform on at that at the rate we saw last year. And maybe it's just Jameis.

[Mike Wright]

You could say that, but I think it's just Jameis.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm more on that side of the Jameis plus passing volume because the team was. The team had lost control of itself.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, this was year five. I feel like Jerry Judy didn't level up halfway through year five when his quarterback changed. He just didn't become a better player.

[Unknown]

What quarterbacks did he have in Denver with the Russian?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I would have to go back and look.

[Unknown]

Not impressive so far.

[Jason Moore]

Well, the rush year there was a lot of touchdowns, if I'm remembering it right.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Was Drew Locke throwing in the ball? Yeah. I would have to look all this up.

[Unknown]

I mean, to answer your quarterback question, he's not had it.

[Mike Wright]

No, that's That's.

[Unknown]

And he had been banged up and fallen out of favor. I. I just think at 25 is not over.

[Jason Moore]

So what? Jerry Judy entered the league in 2020. So the leading passers since then, you had Drew Locke, Teddy Bridgewater, and then you had two years of Russ and ripping farts. Good old Brett. There was quarterback carousel there for sure.

[Unknown]

Yeah. So I don't know. I mean, the regressor impressed. I think we'd all be on the regression from the second half.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to be honest, guys. I have no memory of Teddy Bridgewater being on the Denver Broncos. When I said it, I was like, I going to quadruple check this. Does anyone remember this?

[Unknown]

You verified it? Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

This happened 10, 21. No one remembers this.

[Unknown]

I have no answer for you. Yeah, that was.

[Jason Moore]

It was sort of pandemic time. Who remembers anything?

[Mike Wright]

Is there a crowd in the audience?

[Jason Moore]

21. There would have been. Yeah.

[Unknown]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, he went 7 and 7. Judy.

[Unknown]

Judy's one of those 14 games.

[Jason Moore]

He was their leading passer.

[Unknown]

Can I. I mean, look, this was. This was a player that was on a team with Kendall Hinton starting to. Oh, the hint game with Jeff Driscoll and Drew Locke and Brett Rippon and Teddy Bridgewater and like, there is nobody. I mean, Russell Wilson's the best quarterback he had had until Jameis went wild.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, man, that Judy's going to be a tough one. But if the ADP stays where it is, then some of my teams, I'll sprinkle them in.

[Unknown]

Sprinkle some Judy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Unknown]

Chase Brown. Chase Brown was the running back 19 in the first half of the year, which was. You know, that was great relative to draft position still. However, he was the running back eight in the second half of the year with just a ton of top 10 finishes.

[Jason Moore]

Unless they stopped the Moss experiment. The Moscow. Yeah, he. He got hurt, but it was kind of. You could see it happening by around week four that. That Chase Brown was going to take over.

[Unknown]

Let me put it in context for you. He has points per game, was 17.4 points per game. If you stack that up on the year, that would be good enough points per game wise to only trail Saquon, Gibbs, Henry and Bijan. That's it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he was.

[Unknown]

That would be. That would be running back five in points per game. Or maybe I'm wrong about the. Hold on.

[Mike Wright]

Let me double check the points per game. The 17 was his points per game. I believe in the second half.

[Unknown]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm saying the second half that we're talking about would put him in that category. Yeah, it'd be running back five in points per game. So do you believe that that continues with what they have on offense? They, they're spending money. They're the odds of them. I mean they're not adding somebody in free agency at running back. They could add a rookie but this is a team that is probably not entrusting a ton of backfield share to a rookie who has to pass protect for Joe Burrow. And you know, Chase Brown proved that he could play with Joe Burrow and be that outlet and be that effective player. They need defensive players they might be spending more money on by the time the show releases. Who knows, maybe Trey Hendrickson has a contract.

[Jason Moore]

There's, there's some rumors abound the everything is the NFL draft. I lean that that they're not going to actually spend any high draft capital on a running back. Like early on in the off season Chase Brown was a player I'm like I, I think I want to trade him away because someone's going to be out there and they will give me a ton for Chase Brown. Over the last month, you know I've revisited that and I've changed it and my stat for Chase Brown is I went back and looked at all running backs drafted since 2014. Okay, so that's my, that's my player pool. Running backs who broke out in year two, meaning they finished as a top 24 running back the next year. Their hit rate at ADP is 68%.

[Mike Wright]

That's great.

[Jason Moore]

This is one of the best bets you can make at 80. And when I say ADP, I'm talking about they're drafted as running back 10. Like what do I expect the running back 10 to score on points per game. And guys who break out in year two, they hit at a high rate. And on top of that 40% of that pool exceed their ADP by two points per game. Like these are big time hit players. So Chase Brown, assuming that the NFL draft goes as I'm now feel it's going to go for the Bengals, Chase Brown will be one of my premier draft targets.

[Unknown]

There are players that enter this strange draft position category where they kind of, you know, he's the, his ADP is RB13.

[Jason Moore]

That's fine, I'll take it.

[Unknown]

And they kind of, they kind of.

[Jason Moore]

Either are going really is that low.

[Unknown]

They're either going to disappoint off of.

[Jason Moore]

It for the way that he finished and then I think it's high.

[Unknown]

I'm with the Bengals. But. But a lot of the times, because we're not willing to crown them on half a season, they. Their ADP slots into this spot where it's like, okay, it's not really representative of what they could do. It's just representative of risk. And it's like, if Chase Brown is the starter, that RB13 makes no sense. He will be higher than that, probably, but if Chase Brown is supplanted, he'll probably be lower if he underwhelms. But being RB13 doesn't seem like it's the range of outcomes.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's a really, really tough situation because in, you know, if this was last year's NFL draft, I would be very bullish going in on Chase Brown. It is worth noting that Chase Brown was really a volume king. He wasn't. He wasn't efficient. Oh, that was high power.

[Jason Moore]

I like it. I like it. Swish.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. He called the swish for you. Yeah, I mean, he, you know, among 46 qualifying running backs with 100 or more carries, he was 33rd in yards after contact, 26th and forced missed tackles. And then as a receiver, he had a good stat line, but it really was middling. You know, 35th out of 67 running backs and yards per outrun, 61st out of 67 and yards after catch per reception. So it was volume or is that.

[Unknown]

On just the second half?

[Mike Wright]

That's the whole year. But it's efficiency numbers, so it really shouldn't. It should be worse as he gets more volume. The thing is, is he had over the second half of the year, 24.4 opportunities per game.

[Jason Moore]

That's only.

[Mike Wright]

Saquon was higher than that. He was averaging 86% of snaps. So if they bring.

[Jason Moore]

Remind you of anybody?

[Mike Wright]

Kyren?

[Jason Moore]

No, the guy who used to be the running back for the Cincinnati Bengals, Joe Mixon.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah. Inefficient, but got all the volume and finished great. But the question is, with this year's draft, like, let me. Let me just throw some names. Let me. Let me throw some names out there because this is a deep draft class and they don't have to spend a first or second round pick. They could get Devin Neal, they could get Quinch on Judkins. They could get.

[Jason Moore]

You're not getting Judkins on. Are you talking day three?

[Mike Wright]

No, like a third round, third round pick.

[Jason Moore]

But that's gonna be wild for the Bengals to use a running back. But keep. Sorry. Keep going.

[Mike Wright]

So Caleb Johnson, Cam Scatter Boo, Devin Neal, Judkins, and let's throw RJ Harvey in there as well. If they grab one of those five, there's just a lot of options. If they grab one of those five, will you still be bullish? On impression you're.

[Unknown]

I watched him right. Is beyond the stat lines. Like if you just look at the second half stat lines, the volumes there, the Kyren numbers like you said, you'd be over 1300 rushing yards. This would be the more impressive number to me is seeing what he did in the passing game for Joe burrow on the second half of the season. He's on pace for 80 catches and.

[Jason Moore]

He will do that again if he starts.

[Unknown]

To me, this is like, this is like Echler before he's Eckler. If they believe in him. Those names you said don't scare me. If you say Omari and Hampton or something that I'm scared, but those names don't scare me because I don't believe that the way that this team is organized, I mean people thought that Khalil Herbert was going to get play on this team when he got traded over, but he's had good performances for Chicago. Couldn't see the field. They don't. They don't want to do it. They want the guy they trust.

[Mike Wright]

So I'm trying to do my best to kind of talk you out of it to see if. If you're not there. I'm equally on the impressed side. I remember Tricky Man. I remember last year watching as. As a. As a breeze hall manager watching Chase Brown play and being like, dude, you can make some plays. Why? Like he did things that looked special and I realized some of those efficiency numbers might not be great, but when you watch the film, that's a fifth.

[Jason Moore]

Round pick on the field you stink.

[Mike Wright]

When you watch the film, it was like he was making moves. He was reliable. He was a very important piece of an offense that had great success. They don't look at it and see these inefficiency numbers and think that he was.

[Jason Moore]

Oh no they don't.

[Mike Wright]

Not effective. I think they look and they say this was a great player for us. He's only in year two. They've got him two more years under his rookie contract. I think they're going to roll him next year and he should be great for fantasy.

[Unknown]

We will take a break momentarily. We got a couple more names to get into before we close things out. But yeah, I'm with you. And I think none of us went into last season thinking Chase Brown was a special talent necessarily.

[Jason Moore]

Well, he had juice.

[Unknown]

He had juice, but not A complete talent. And I think that changed for me watching him and it changed for the team. I don't know if they knew that they could trust him to the degree that they did last year. Sometimes players got to get on the field and all of a sudden you're like, wow, that is. That's like a legitimate running back. I think we thought undersized, complimentary back.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I mean, it's funny because he looks undersized, but he's like, he's 210 pounds. That he can take some workload. That's fine. That's. That's better than Kyron and some of those other backs. So I.

[Unknown]

He's. He's bigger than Kyron weight wise. Interesting.

[Mike Wright]

I know. It doesn't. It doesn't look like it. Dude, it.

[Jason Moore]

The color of your uniform messes with you, man. I'm serious. Like, it was like when Pierre Garcon went from the Colts to Washington. It was like that guy gained 50 pounds.

[Unknown]

What?

[Mike Wright]

I remember that.

[Unknown]

Interesting. What uniform, Kyle?

[Mike Wright]

Well, it's usually a black polo.

[Jason Moore]

This was if you want to be slim.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Deep dive on uniform color about who looks bigger.

[Unknown]

That's right.

[Jason Moore]

I need the people need.

[Mike Wright]

Find the database of, you know, looks.

[Jason Moore]

I guarantee Kyle has this database.

[Unknown]

Give him 10 minutes. All right, let's take a break and then we'll talk about Bucky Irving and another interesting name that we didn't think would be relevant, but was super relevant.

[Andy Holloway]

Some people just know they could save hundreds on car insurance by checking Allstay first. Like, you know, to check that you packed the grill first before leaving for the tailgate. Now you've got seven hangry friends and a cooler full of uncooked brats. Checking first is smart, so check Allstate first for a quote that could save you hundreds. You're in good hands with Allstain. Savings vary, subject to terms, conditions and availability. Allstate Fire and Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates, Northbrook, Illinois.

[Mike Wright]

Crafted for speed, tested and worn by Bukayo Saka, the New Balance Furon V8 refines the Ultra lightweight precision strike focused design for an even greater sense of speed. A new speed control stud is designed to support control during sudden stops, sharp pivots and moves used by the fastest players on the pitch like Saka himself. Experience, engineered minimalism, crafted support, explosive movement and the sharpest of touches. Learn more and purchase a [e-mail] soccer.

[Unknown]

All right, we are resuming our regress or impress segment. Just a rehash here. Jared Goff. We Were all on the regress side. It's just a high point.

[Jason Moore]

Don't want to be but think so.

[Unknown]

Jerry Judy I think we're all in the regress compared to the second half wide receiver but I am. I certainly believe he'll be much better than the first half numbers. Chase Brown. We were all on the impress side. We think that RB1 season is in store current landscape of the Bengals don't play that sound bite if they draft a superstar running back and then Jay, where are you?

[Jason Moore]

Because when I heard the RB13 I'm. I just. I felt like that was low where. Where the market would place him. I but like thinking through it so I'm going to like because you're on. We're all on the same side here of we want Chase Brown on our teams and it's like Chase Brown or Breeze. Chase Brown or Johnny Taylor. Like I think I'm taking Chase Brown over those guys.

[Mike Wright]

I would definitely take Jonathan Taylor over Chase Brown but I can't do Breeze anymore. Just.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Can't do it.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Unknown]

You know it would be a really good drop for Breeze if I could. No, I was going to see if I get. I mean I got to go to archives to find this thing.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, we're diving deep.

[Unknown]

I'll see if I can find it later. But let's talk about Bucky Irving first. Bucky Irving in this. In this category is a little weird because first half, second half contrast with a rookie. I expect it to be pretty vast. Right. Even if you're a premier rookie, you should have. We've seen progression, right. We've seen players that they get more work, they get more opportunity. He was the RB27 in the first half. That's not bad. As a rookie that wasn't expected to do great things.

[Jason Moore]

You're not a day one or day.

[Unknown]

Two pick but RB6, that was the second half. 17.9 points per game. And you know, do you believe as a player being drafted now as the RB9 that you're going to get the same type of performance?

[Jason Moore]

So we know that the offense is. It's going to be. I mean OC with notwithstanding of that but the offensive pieces, it's going to be the same guys and I am super bullish on Bucky moving forward. It feels kind of like a weird place to be of that player with his archetype, his body size and then his draft capital. Draft capital and then. And the combine numbers for him were not like you didn't blow anybody away with how overly athletic he was just got on the field and was an absolute student. Among all running backs was 75, Kareem.

[Unknown]

Hunt as a rookie.

[Jason Moore]

Kareem Hunt was a third round pick at least.

[Unknown]

What was Bucky?

[Jason Moore]

Fourth.

[Unknown]

Okay. He was a fourth. I feel like we can still compare them.

[Jason Moore]

And Kareem Hunt was a sturdier fellow.

[Unknown]

I just heard somebody that. But from the run in the 40, the combined numbers, sure. Obviously neither player sold themselves into the first and second round. And yet on the field, speed and agility and stuff translated differently.

[Jason Moore]

So he's fifth in yards per carry or. Yeah, an eighth. And explosive rush rate, third enforced missed tackles per attempt. And that stat. I was giving you the ADP study of the year two breakouts for running back. It is only bested by year one running back breakouts. Guys who break out in year one who finish in the top 24 heading into year two, they hit their ADP expectation almost 70% of the time and 42% of the time you get the big time breakout. So it.

[Mike Wright]

And that has to include injuries like when a player goes out and at no fault of their own, gets injured and they don't return. On adp, you would expect those numbers.

[Jason Moore]

These are points per game. This isn't just your finish. It's how when you're on the field, how are you actually performing?

[Unknown]

Well, people don't want Philip Lindsey, they don't want Steve Slayton. They don't want one year wonder with Bucky Irving. And you don't expect it to be a one year.

[Jason Moore]

I do. Not at all. And then a hat tip to Matthew Barry, who every year at the combine, he gathers as much intel and rumors as he can. And he often brings us really good stuff. And he said, I'm talking to people who are associated with the Bucks and their love for Bucky Irving is through the moon, as it should be. But it's just.

[Unknown]

It's great to. It's not through the roof. That's through. That's way up there.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

You know how much further away the moon is than your roof?

[Unknown]

It's through the moon.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Unknown]

The moon cannot contain their love.

[Jason Moore]

No, not no.

[Mike Wright]

Rocky core planet Big rock.

[Unknown]

I mean, a roof can normally contain the love. Sometimes you break the roof. Now you can go through.

[Mike Wright]

Well, can you imagine how much harder it is to break through the moon than a roof?

[Unknown]

Than a roof? Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

If anyone can do it, it's Bucky rv.

[Unknown]

Three times harder. Three.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

But he's going to. He's going to be awesome.

[Unknown]

So RB9 regressor impress.

[Jason Moore]

I'll take an RB9.

[Mike Wright]

Impress.

[Jason Moore]

I'll take it.

[Unknown]

So 5.4 to a carry. When you talk about Chase Brown, Chase Brown was at 4.2.

[Mike Wright]

I often caution people for from going too hot. Damien Pierce. Exactly. So Damian Pierce. It's hard to remember now, but going into his sophomore year, everyone was hot and bothered for him. He was such a sensational rookie, but he didn't have the draft capital and it was like he's going to break out. And the thing is, is we've seen it a lot. Like the data on that is very, very bad for, you know, Andy, you talked about, you think you compare the third round and the fourth round. It really is massively difference. Because that's the difference in draft day. Right? Like Day Day 2 picks when General managers are putting their boards together the way that they value a day to pick versus day three, four, five and you know, the rounds four, five, six, seven, they're all, you know, lumped together versus two and three on day two, Day four and beyond picks, rookie running backs who break out do not often repeat. And so I was banging the table to like, be cautious with Damian Pierce. To me, Bucky Irving is too good. I am retracting the data and saying he is an outlier on talent.

[Unknown]

Data retraction.

[Mike Wright]

Data retraction. He was just. He was genuinely the best running back on the team by a wide margin. The team had a guy that they trusted, that they liked and Rashad White, and they just were forced to continue to put Bucky Irving on the field more and more and more. And now this offseason, you're hearing that that's their dude.

[Unknown]

I love. I love the Buccaneers offense.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Unknown]

For fantasy. I love it. Yeah, I love watching it. It's not just one that gives you numbers that you don't like watching. It's just fun.

[Jason Moore]

They are fun.

[Unknown]

Baker's in complete control of the offense. It's not just luck.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's funny. Like when I watch the Buccaneers offense, I like watching the Lions. They're great. But I don't have as much fun watching the Lions offense, which scored more.

[Unknown]

Points because I enjoy the Lions quite a bit.

[Jason Moore]

But Jared Goff doesn't give you the shenanigans of Baker mania.

[Mike Wright]

Baker's. He's fun to watch.

[Unknown]

All right, let's make this one quick, guys. Regressor impressed Johnny Smith, who went from the tight end 20 to the tight end 1 over the second half of the year. Yes. That is the tight end one 14.8 points per game in the second half. Tight end two three, three, five, two, 10, 13, five to finish the year seven top five finishes, the year eight breakout. I mean, look, I mean, there's part of. There's part of.

[Jason Moore]

He was top 10 in 2020.

[Unknown]

I was gonna say there's part of me that always, you know, on a per play basis, we always have believed in Johnny Smith.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Unknown]

It's just that Johnny Smith somehow never profiled as an every play kind of guy. And you know, the signing in New England was supposed to be exciting and fun because of what Bill Belichick had done with tight ends in the past. And we didn't get that from Johnny Smith. And part of it was, you know, sharing time. They brought Hunter Henry in at the same time they brought him in. And then in Atlanta we're like, why is he getting snaps ahead of the superstar Kyle Pitts? And now we're like, oh, that's why. Because Jonas Smith's good and Kyle Pitts isn't. So, you know, this Miami offense, if we, we either, we either have to believe that they'll return to something that we saw two years ago, throw the ball down the field and then Tyreek and Waddle will be great, or we have to believe that they're intentionally going to protect to a. That this offense of 70 plus percent completion percentage is the way that they want to do things. In which case I feel like you have to say you believe in Johnny Smith.

[Mike Wright]

I do believe in Johnny Smith. And it's really.

[Unknown]

So you're an impress.

[Mike Wright]

I'm an impress.

[Unknown]

What's his draft position at the tight end?

[Mike Wright]

Can't be that high in seven. That's, that's. I'm surprised he's that high. But the. We saw this before once, ever. And it was when a year nine breakout happened for a tight end who switched teams. And it reminds me a lot of the same because it was a player that was good, but just wasn't given the opportunity. Was Delaney Walker talking about Hubert Hubert?

[Jason Moore]

I just found out that his name is Hubert Delaney. Hubert Delaney Walker.

[Mike Wright]

Wow.

[Jason Moore]

Eat that, Kyle.

[Mike Wright]

I see why he would go by Delaney. Yeah, when Delaney is an upgrade. I mean, Delaney's not a great name.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, Delaney's a good name.

[Mike Wright]

It's not great. But Hubert Hubert's worse.

[Unknown]

I feel like Delaney's not Herbert. Delaney's a better last name.

[Mike Wright]

I agree. Delaney, would you want to be Hubert? I mean. No.

[Unknown]

That's not how you say it, is it?

[Mike Wright]

That's how I say it, Hubert.

[Jason Moore]

Or is it Hubbard.

[Unknown]

Well, that doesn't sound right either.

[Jason Moore]

That's Hubert.

[Mike Wright]

H u Hubert.

[Jason Moore]

I want to hear.

[Unknown]

I mean, if I've said it so many times, it doesn't sound right.

[Jason Moore]

That old arcade game.

[Unknown]

Yes, Qbert. Yes, I thought of it immediately.

[Mike Wright]

But Delaney Walker had a year nine breakout. You could maybe say a year eight when he switched to the Tennessee Titans, and then had a long stretch as an important pass catcher for them because he was a good player. And John, who was a good player, and he proved that he switched teams. He's under contract. I think that I was impressed and I will continue to be.

[Unknown]

All right, so, you know, obviously you're not going to impress above tight end one over the second half, but you're saying you'll buy in at that adp.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Tight end seven.

[Unknown]

I don't usually I'm right at that. What is the half halfway point between regress and impress neutral. There you go. The Hubert.

[Mike Wright]

Rest the Hubert.

[Jason Moore]

Guys, I have horrifically bad news.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, no. Do you need to retract it? His name. His name was. No, no, his name was Jonathan.

[Jason Moore]

No, no, but Delaney. Like, how old do you think Delaney Walker is?

[Mike Wright]

Is right now?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Unknown]

Oh, right. I bet he's our age.

[Mike Wright]

40.

[Jason Moore]

He's younger than us.

[Mike Wright]

What? What?

[Jason Moore]

Delaney Walker.

[Mike Wright]

Delaney Walker has a Walker? I mean. Oh, my gosh.

[Unknown]

That also means that the Hubert was being considered at the time when we were being born.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, no.

[Unknown]

And God blessed us with avoiding Hubert.

[Jason Moore]

And now to make us feel bad, Kyle pulled this up. An athletic article in 2019.

[Unknown]

No, we don't need to share this.

[Jason Moore]

No, we do, because we're talking about Hubert. But he was named after his estranged father and even teased by kids in elementary school about the name.

[Mike Wright]

Of course he had.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, is that the guy's name?

[Mike Wright]

That's not the kid's fault. Oh, man, I couldn't even get it out.

[Jason Moore]

We're going to hear from the Huberts, guys.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, the Hubert.

[Jason Moore]

There are dozens of them.

[Unknown]

The dozens of Huberts. Please let us know if your name is Hubert. The first five real Huberts that reach out.

[Jason Moore]

I'll have Papa Josh get a swag.

[Unknown]

Pack, send you a swag.

[Mike Wright]

You got a. I want a driver's license.

[Unknown]

Oh, yeah, we need.

[Mike Wright]

We're checking that thing for chat GPT. We know your tricks.

[Unknown]

We're not talking about hiding Hubert as a middle name.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no, no, no.

[Unknown]

This is first name Hubert.

[Mike Wright]

Hubert. And you want to know how we'll know that you're Hugh? That you're Hubert because it will come from an email that says something like Robert [e-mail] because we know you're not going by Hubert.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I just say they're in aol.com for sure.

[Mike Wright]

Oh my God. If they're going by, your name is really Hubert. All right, we will not be hearing from anybody.

[Unknown]

Did not expect this. Thank you for joining us on today's episode. Back next week, foot cast tomorrow. Take care.

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter. The FFballers.

[Andy Holloway]

Some people just know they could save hundreds on car insurance by checking Allstay first. Like, you know to check that you packed the grill first before leaving for the tailgate. Now you've got seven hangry friends and a cooler full of uncooked brats. Checking first is smart, so check Allstay first for a quote that could save you hundreds. You're in good hands with Allstay. Savings vary, subject to terms, conditions and availability. Allstate Fire and Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates, Northbrook, Illinois.

[Unknown]

The Quarter Pounder with cheese had many great things. Maple flavored griddle cakes isn't one of them. McDonald's breakfast comes first.