
Fantasy Football Podcast for July 17th, 2018. It’s another LIVE recording of the show on the 2nd stop of the Fantasy For The People Tour presented by DRAFT! Live from Canton Hall in Dallas, we discuss a handful of big risk/big reward players for fantasy
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Mike Wright
Foreign.
Jason Moore
To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from Draft.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.
Andy Holloway
Dallas. Welcome in to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast live in Dallas, Texas.
Jason Moore
All right, the crowd is hyped.
Andy Holloway
I hope we get the greatest mailbag drop we've ever had today.
Mike Wright
That. Yeah, that's a challenge. Hold on, hold on.
Jason Moore
Jason.
Andy Holloway
Shout out.
Mike Wright
There was multiple people that just shouted for Jason.
Andy Holloway
That just means there are several tone deaf individuals in the audience. And we appreciate it. Welcome in.
Mike Wright
This is.
Andy Holloway
This is stop number two on the Fantasy for the People tour.
Mike Wright
Presented by Draft.
Andy Holloway
Presented by Draft. Thank you to Draft for sponsoring all these live events. If you're listening and you want to come, there are more. Philadelphia, New York, Phoenix.
Mike Wright
Yeah. Care. Careful with the Philly.
Andy Holloway
Hey, you realize. You realize Philly was. Yeah, I got you.
Mike Wright
You got any.
Andy Holloway
It was a problem for Minneapolis too.
Jason Moore
And I understand Philly better come and represent.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, they better come out. Ballerslive.com if you want to grab tickets to the show. We got a great show. I won't mention the Eagles very much. Okay. That's my promise to you. We've got. We got some stuff planned, some fun stuff planned. We've got risk reward on the show today.
Mike Wright
These are some players that we are, dare I say, very excited for, yet very scared.
Andy Holloway
Very scared. Very special drop that Mike has prepared for that segment. And I'm excited. Are you excited?
Mike Wright
Dude, I'm so excited.
Andy Holloway
You still got a voice. You good? You remember, this is live.
Jason Moore
You guys are in for a treat.
Andy Holloway
So I had a. There were a bunch of quick question submissions that I got off of Twitter, you know, Dak versus Wentz and Philly Dallas stuff that I didn't want to get into. And I agree. And what was strange is while we were in the hotel.
Mike Wright
Right? Well, we're here for the nffc.
Andy Holloway
Absolutely.
Mike Wright
And there's NFL players everywhere right now.
Andy Holloway
Gonna be a blast tomorrow. And while I was in the hotel, you know the postal service, you're familiar.
Jason Moore
I heard of it.
Andy Holloway
Someone brought by a letter.
Mike Wright
No. No one gets letters anymore.
Andy Holloway
I know, but I got one.
Jason Moore
Oh.
Andy Holloway
And it's actually for Jason. And you didn't even know. But hold on.
Mike Wright
Did you realize that opening letters for someone else is a federal offense? Well, thank you. Not if you.
Andy Holloway
Not if you're the host. So. But I got this letter and it's addressed to you and it seemed relevant enough. So I'm gonna read it.
Jason Moore
I'm looking forward to it.
Andy Holloway
And I just want to touch on A few things that. I have to share this with you, and I hope you'll be okay.
Jason Moore
All right.
Andy Holloway
Dearest Jason, I've received all of your previous correspondence, and it's now quite clear your feelings for me. The twinkle you get in your eye whenever my name is scribbled down on your fantasy roster. The way you stare longingly at the box scores like no one else's. Fantasy points seem to matter. How do I say this other than to just say it? Please stop writing me. You expect far too much. Yea, my star was born last season, but it cannot burn as bright in the shadow of my elders, Antonio Le'Veon, who demand the highest care and attention of our leader, Benjamin. Again. Dearest Jason, I implore you, stop writing. Your unrequited love will only lead to embarrassment as my current draft position cannot sustain your expectations. Plus, it's really, really creepy.
Jason Moore
Juju.
Andy Holloway
Farewell. Juju.
Mike Wright
Farewell.
Jason Moore
Oh. Oh, man.
Andy Holloway
It's emotional.
Mike Wright
I can't believe he got a letter.
Andy Holloway
Do you have any thoughts to. To share based on hearing that? I mean, this has got to be difficult.
Jason Moore
Yeah. Well, let me just say this, Juju. I know. I know that you are out there. I know that you are watching me now like a star from the heavens. I will not stop writing or loving you against my mind. I will follow my heart.
Mike Wright
There are people who might make you stop. Yeah, Called the police.
Jason Moore
Now, that's very interesting. I. I will admit that I. I probably talk about juju too much. That's on me. But I wasn't the only one to get a letter addressed to me.
Mike Wright
That's impossible.
Jason Moore
Yeah, hit the music. Cause you got a letter, too, buddy.
Andy Holloway
This is incredible.
Mike Wright
They went up 100%.
Jason Moore
Dear Andy, Kyle, Rudolph here. Do you even remember me anymore? A few years ago, we were like best friends. I remember you hyping me up even before I broke out. You told everyone who had listened to draft me, and you even took me yourself, my man. But it was recently brought to my attention that you've been talking smack behind my back, saying I'm no good, I'm uninspiring a mediocre tight end. I heard from my mom that both last year and this year, you have made something called a water bet against me. What is that? Why would you do that? It hurts, man. What more can I do? Over the last two seasons, I'm the fourth best tight end in fantasy. I'm third in targets, I'm third in receptions, I'm sixth in yards, and I'm freaking second in touchdowns. He's pretty. He's pretty heated here. I mean, come on, man. I even got an upgraded quarterback who loves his tight end. Look, we don't have to be best friends anymore. But I still care about you, Andy. And I just don't want you to look like a dumb idiot at the end of the year. Also, stop picking on Jason. He's the coolest.
Andy Holloway
Oh, my goodness. That. I didn't expect this.
Jason Moore
Thank you, Kyle.
Andy Holloway
The power of a letter. Incredible. I. Look, that was emotional. Yeah, he made some strong points, him and his mother.
Mike Wright
I mean, I'm just. I'm. I'm shocked that somehow you guys intercepted each other.
Andy Holloway
That's weird.
Mike Wright
It's really weird.
Andy Holloway
Strange, but we can.
Mike Wright
Oh, I got a letter. We got to myself.
Andy Holloway
We got to move on. Mike, no.
Mike Wright
Dear Mike.
Andy Holloway
Oh, great.
Mike Wright
First off, I appreciate you and your team believing in me this past year. The overwhelming support and belief I'd become a fantasy superstar from the fantasy footballers really gave me wings. And not just little bitty baby wings. Angel wings that I used to soar. And yet your co hosts seem to have lost faith in me. I guess they aren't interested in a player that finished top five at his position. For goodness sake. I led the league in rushing, forced missed tackles, yards after contact. I was one of only six running backs to prove durability to touch the ball 300 plus times. Six out of how many? I'm not exactly sure, but it's a lot. I hear them grief me for my fantasy dry spell in the middle of the season.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, yeah.
Mike Wright
But I listen to you guys. And they've been off their game more than their fair share of shows. Am I right?
Andy Holloway
Oh, shots fired.
Mike Wright
He says please play the rim. Shot drop. I'll wait.
Andy Holloway
Goodness gracious.
Mike Wright
In conclusion, my dearest, best fantasy analyst friend, Mike, you are the smartest and best looking of the bunch. I mean, though, that's. I appreciate that. The only bust I'm gonna produce is my likeness in Canton.
Jason Moore
Wow.
Mike Wright
Hugs and smooches, Kareem.
Andy Holloway
Wow, Mike. I now know how we can validate all of our opinions. Letters.
Jason Moore
Letters to ourselves.
Andy Holloway
From ourselves. To ourselves.
Mike Wright
How dare you. And we'd like to thank Pristine Auction for sponsoring the show. Pristine Auction.
Andy Holloway
Give them a shout out.
Mike Wright
They provided this incredible Dak Prescott signed Cowboys helmet that we are going to give away to one lucky, lucky listener if we don't leave the building with it ourselves.
Andy Holloway
50 50.
Mike Wright
But pristine auction, we talk about it all the time. They where you. They are where you go for authentic signatures. The best sports memorabilia Site of all time giving you great deals like a trey boo boo Trey boo boo Trey Burton signed Bears jersey $53 a Travis Kelsey signed Chiefs jersey, 92 bucks. I can't believe the deals.
Andy Holloway
They're pretty good.
Mike Wright
I'm getting daily.
Jason Moore
You're getting daily.
Mike Wright
Pristine auction. Make a completely free account. Let the footballers sent you.
Brad Evans
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Andy Holloway
I forgot something, by the way. Do you know how many days it is from right now, right here, this moment, until the first game of the NFL season.
Mike Wright
Does anybody know 55.
Andy Holloway
Oh, could you even hear it?
Jason Moore
I couldn't even hear it.
Andy Holloway
Let's do it again. Oh, 55 days. That was destiny right there, Mike. All right, let's move on to our main event. We're going to talk risk, talk reward. Mike put together a very special drop for this segment.
Jason Moore
So excited. I'm so excited. I'm so scared.
Andy Holloway
As for the over 30s, all, all.
Mike Wright
All people listening to this show who were not child of the 90s were.
Andy Holloway
Like, that's what I mean, what, what.
Mike Wright
Was the heck did I just listen to?
Andy Holloway
What was that? All right, so we thought it would be fun to talk about some of the biggest risk and reward players which Is pretty much how I view Jason on the show.
Jason Moore
Risk, reward, high risk. But high reward, high reward.
Andy Holloway
Number three in draft accuracy in 2018.
Jason Moore
Embarrassing.
Andy Holloway
So we've each picked out three guys that we think have. You can see both sides. Right. You can swing the pendulum both ways. Heavy risk, heavy reward. Mike, why don't you kick it off with one of these risk reward guys.
Mike Wright
Sure.
Andy Holloway
That you're scared of and you're excited.
Mike Wright
And I know there's some people in the front row who are going to really appreciate this. Jerick McKinnon.
Andy Holloway
Oh, oh.
Mike Wright
High risk, high reward.
Andy Holloway
By some people, did you mean one person? Is that who you're applying?
Mike Wright
I think there may be one person specifically who I'm talking to. But here's the thing. And with this we wanted to lay out both sides risks. He's never done it. Granted. His best finish is running back 22. Which. That's fine, right? That's fine for fantasy. That means we had a couple good games the past two years. He's been a running back one or two in only 29% of his games. He only has two years of 150 plus carries. And in those years 3.4, 3.8 yards per carry when he got volume. Yeah, is right. He's never had more than 159 carries. He couldn't seem to keep a job away from Matt Aziata. From Latavius Murray.
Andy Holloway
I think I have some Matt Aziata.
Mike Wright
He's coming down the field, number 20.
Andy Holloway
The 18.
Mike Wright
The 15. He might make it. And he was on a great team last year. He's on an even worse team. Risk. He's being drafted at the 209. The running back 13. And he's too small. Not his.
Andy Holloway
Not his wallet. No, not too small.
Mike Wright
Thank you for pointing out some reward.
Andy Holloway
Is that part of your reward? Why are we so enamored with these guys that are so exciting and unknown?
Mike Wright
He is a running back in a Shanahan system. This isn't. This running back system does not just go to Kyle Shanahan. His father created a system that was dominant for running backs. He was a legend at taking a jag, making them a superstar and then trading them away for huge assets because his model for running backs was so productive. Here's the past three year finishes for a Kyle Shanahan running back. One, one, six, eight. And that number one running back. He was on an eight and eight team. That running back eight. He was on a six and ten team. That's a bad team.
Andy Holloway
You're saying it doesn't matter exactly. Threatened for the playoffs.
Mike Wright
San Francisco had the third highest target shared to the running back position. Carlos Hyde went from 64 career targets to 88 in one season. Running backs who finished at the top seven had no fewer than 53 receptions. It takes target volume and receptions to get into the top. Hyde had 59. McKinnon had 51 receptions last year. He will be the primary pass catcher. Who is his competition? Undrafted Matt Burrida. And what did they give Jerick McKinnon? A four year deal worth $30 million. That gives him $12 million this season. He is the second highest paid running back in the NFL behind only Le'Veon Bell and size. He is almost identically sized to Devonta Freeman. That running back one for Kyle Shanahan that I talked about.
Andy Holloway
So handicap it for us though. Where do you see it? Is the risk worth the Reward with Jared McKinney? Because the draft price is rising and the expectations are rising.
Mike Wright
Like I said, drafted at the 209 and I would put the reward. I'm going to handicap that at 70%.
Andy Holloway
Because as in 70% chance you think it works out.
Mike Wright
I am not ignoring that. There is certainly risk but the opportunity is there. The talent for getting a player in space. You mix that with a head coach who knows how to maximize his running backs. Carlos side was is not a pass catching running back and yet he was this past season and was dominant for fantasy football and San Francisco. While they're not as good as Minnesota as I project this year, they're still a heck of a lot better with Jimmy Handsome going to be starting 16 games for them.
Jason Moore
Yeah, I don't have any.
Mike Wright
What's up for Jimmy Garoppolo?
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Where did that come from?
Mike Wright
It's fair. I'll allow it.
Andy Holloway
I like I talk about you later. You stay right there. You don't move.
Jason Moore
Yeah, I know. I really do. I like that take. I know he's a little bit risky, but I think the risk in McKinnon is overblown. From a talent perspective, the risk is injury. No, I know. No, I know. I used to be more anti McKinnon but last season he proved to me in the passing game that he was good enough. You know, it took him some time to have his freak athleticism translate to the field, but it did. And so you know, I don't think there's a chance he just disappoints. I think that there is a chance because of his smaller body he gets injured like any running back and could be a Bust. You really can't have a much higher percentage than 70% because of the position 71. Sure, there are. There are a few other options. I go on 28 more options other than that. But no, I agree. I think that when he, when he made his transition, he went to a team solely because he wanted to prove he could be the workhorse. Now he's got the opportunity. Well, so. And solely, the only money and money, money, money helps. Money was in there too.
Andy Holloway
So who's your guy, Jay? All right, give me a risk reward candidate.
Jason Moore
The first risk reward guy that I'm a little scared to draft, but I think there is phenomenal reward is wide receiver for the Houston Texans, Will Fuller.
Andy Holloway
Got a lot of Houston fans in the house.
Jason Moore
Well, we are in Texas, so that makes, that makes a little bit of sense, but.
Mike Wright
Oh, there's the booze. There we go.
Jason Moore
Will Fuller has the trifecta of risk that I usually try to avoid. Okay. He is an expensive draft capital player who is low volume, can't talk very loud, and has and has. Hey, guys. An injury risk.
Mike Wright
He will.
Jason Moore
He will follow.
Andy Holloway
Pass me the ball. So totally hijacking. He's trying to stay with the point.
Mike Wright
Watson, the ASMR people are freaking out right now. Oh, yeah, they're loving it.
Andy Holloway
It's the low volume.
Jason Moore
Yeah, the low volume. No, I get the joke. I understand where you went. I just, you know, they can't all be winners.
Andy Holloway
Oh, come on.
Jason Moore
So injury. Look, he's. He's never started more than 13 games in the two seasons. He's had only 10, 10 games last year. The volume he has, he is virtually guaranteed. He cannot be the number one on his team. DeAndre Hopkins is clearly the. The target. Hard for volume. He hasn't had more than 47 receptions in either of his years, which is a terrible number for Kenny Stills. And he is the.
Andy Holloway
No, it's very fair amount of reception.
Jason Moore
He's got a lot in common. And you're trying to find out. Priced at the back of the sixth round, the last six, 12 right now, which is pretty expensive. There's good players, you know, available. But the reward is there with Will Fuller, for sure. A lot of times, I think because of his injury, because of his injury, people forget who he is, what his pedigree was. He was dominant in college and he came in running a 4, 3, 2, 40. That's one of the fastest wide receiver times of all time. So you've got a true burner who has shown it on the field. You have to keep in mind, 20 of his 24 games in the NFL have been quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler, Tom Savage, and TJ Yates. Yeah, someone, literally, someone just threw up.
Mike Wright
I need to clean up. Clean up, clean up. Row three.
Jason Moore
So look, last season, he gets a good quarterback, but he was injured to start the year. He was. He didn't. He wasn't able to build that rapport. So there was a lot of fear. You didn't really draft him. He was irrelevant until all of a sudden, he wasn't. Right. He had four games, four games with Watson, and all he did was scorch the earth. Now look, he had seven touchdowns in four games. I think that's like a 28 touchdown pace not happening. I would never, ever think that. But the point is, he is a deep threat with a perfect pairing in Watson. Watts play breaks down bad, offensive line, you scramble, you throw the ball deep. And there's Will Fuller in the end zone. We've seen wide receiver 1 and wide receiver 2 numbers from DeSean Jackson, from Mike Wallace, when they weren't necessarily the number one on their team. That's the upside here in Will Fuller. And I think it's a perfect pair where he could very well. I mean, if he ends up this year as a wide receiver, too, you can't be surprised. I mean, the average, the better part of the last decade, the average for NFL, for different NFL teams to have multiple wide receiver twos is at least four. Four different teams have two wide receiver twos. And so I think the Houston Texans can be one of those with DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller and Juju.
Andy Holloway
Juju is going to be one of those?
Jason Moore
You darn right.
Andy Holloway
He is so handicapping. You think odds on favorite to be more reward than risk with the health of Deshaun Watson or.
Jason Moore
No, no. I would put it. I would put it in the negative. I think it's a 45% chance that he succeeds. 55% chance.
Mike Wright
Wait, wait.
Jason Moore
Oh, I didn't even know.
Andy Holloway
That was.
Jason Moore
A pure accident, huh? But, yeah, I. I am happy. I'm still a little bit more afraid. All right, who you got? Andy? Believe you've met my fitness consigliere, Michel.
Andy Holloway
Were you not expecting that?
Mike Wright
I was not prepared.
Andy Holloway
I'm going with Sony.
Mike Wright
Michel not prepared.
Andy Holloway
I love this guy. People have asked me on radio shows about who's the next Alvin Kamara. To me, the reward is that type of a season. But the risks are there with Sony Michelle, as they are with all the rookies. Like, a lot of the rookies fit Directly in this category. I could have put Ronald Jones name down a number of them. You, you would have said you would have been 95. Five. Here's the risk with Sonny Michelle. You have three basic things for me it's. One is ball security. 12 fumbles, five lost in college.
Mike Wright
Here's what he improved it.
Andy Holloway
Here's the perspective. Once per 54 touches in college, the average draft prospect once per 124 touches.
Jason Moore
That, that one's better.
Andy Holloway
So that. Yeah.
Mike Wright
Improve.
Andy Holloway
Bill Belichick has a problem with that. Ask Steven Ridley.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
Of State Farm whether or not he has a problem with that.
Mike Wright
Look, he got me a great rate.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. Well, he. Yeah, sure. His pay is worse. Snaps. I. You got to worry about snaps with him because you, yes. You lose Dion Lewis and that's the role he may come into. And Deion led the team in snaps. But you're talking 35%, right. Another 33% of snaps was James White and Burkhead was 17% but he was injured. So you worry about snap count overall for Sony Michel. He has to be hyper efficient. That's what Alvin Camaro was hyper efficient last year. And a beast as well. I got a beast from the audience. The other thing is Bill Belichick in general is a problem because Every week Josh McDaniels takes him in the back room, blindfolds him and then he plays like pin the tail on the depth chart. Like you don't know who's gonna start. Look at Gillislee last year.
Mike Wright
Brandon Bolden.
Andy Holloway
We did it. We got it.
Mike Wright
This is the week.
Andy Holloway
This is the week. Last year you had Gilly started with 15 and 18 carries and it was 12 and 10 and eight and then he disappeared.
Mike Wright
It was great first two games and.
Andy Holloway
And so you just don't know. But the reward is an Alvin Camara type of season. And he was a guy Sony Michelle in college that killed great defenses. Alabama, Oklahoma, his. The playoff games.
Mike Wright
Apparently we're in anti Oklahoma territory.
Andy Holloway
I really don't know my geography.
Mike Wright
Wait, where's, where's the musical cheering for.
Andy Holloway
Sonny Michelle for having a carry against them.
Mike Wright
Don't make me sing it.
Andy Holloway
But I mean he, he, he breaks free for long runs. That's something Alvin Camara does.
Jason Moore
He's.
Andy Holloway
He's got burst. He's a between the tackles guy. The reward is that Alvin Camara. So for me, I, I look at it as, you know, Dion Lewis was the best, one of the best runners in football last year. He's gone great offensive line that can make space for Sonny Michelle. So I put it at 65, 35.
Mike Wright
Yeah. I don't hate it in the the myth that New England does not commit to a running back, it's. You can build a strong case for it, but when you actually look at the facts, when they find their guy, he gets a ton of carries because Dion Lewis was still coming off of injuries, working his way back. But once he was finally healthy, proved it.
Andy Holloway
The problem is do you committed to him games from anybody.
Mike Wright
Fair.
Andy Holloway
That's the thing. You don't.
Jason Moore
Do you know when to start him or does he get, you know, let's say he gets 12 great games but you keep starting him on the wrong week and then after it looks like, oh, he's out of the rotation, you don't start him and then he's the.
Andy Holloway
Workhorse fifth round pick right now, right around there.
Jason Moore
So, yeah, that risky. I think that's a fair price. But I, I still hesitate on him.
Andy Holloway
Where's Lamar Miller going right now?
Jason Moore
Lamar Miller is also in the fifth round.
Andy Holloway
Oh, so you would say Lamar Miller.
Mike Wright
Even in Texas country, we can't get Lamar Miller support.
Andy Holloway
So you take Sony over Lamar. I thought you were going to tell me.
Jason Moore
We'll talk about this in a little bit.
Andy Holloway
All right, you're on. Mike Player.
Mike Wright
I want to talk about Tyreek Hill. We got some risks for Tyreek. New quarterback, new competition in Sammy Watkins. How good was Sammy Watkins in the red zone? I don't know if people realize this. He had 10 targets the red zone. He had seven completions in the red zone. He had seven touchdowns in the red zone. An absolute monster.
Andy Holloway
Go big or go home.
Jason Moore
That's my boy.
Mike Wright
Tyreek Hill. This past season, even with Alex Smith being a dominant fantasy quarterback, earned himself a grand total of four red zone targets. He had one reception inside the 20s. All seven of his touchdowns came from 30 yards away. And no, I don't view that as a positive because I'm talking about things that are actually repeatable. Of the wide receiver ones, he had the highest discrepancy between targets and fantasy finish. What we've been talking about lately, the.
Andy Holloway
Message lay that out.
Mike Wright
So there is a high correlation. Targets equal fantasy points equals and you can see you can spot regression either in a positive or negative way compared to their target finish and fantasy finish. He's being drafted at the 300 8. The wide receiver 14. Here's the reward. Last season he was the wide receiver 7. It didn't feel like it, but he was actually consistent. 53% as a wide receiver. One or two. That's better than A.J. green. That's better than my best friend, Larry Fitzgerald. It's better than Keenan Allen. That's better than Adam Thielen.
Andy Holloway
That's better than DEZ Bryant.
Mike Wright
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Jason Moore
What's the temperature here on des right now? Is this a pro des room?
E
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
What do we think about him? Do you miss him?
Mike Wright
We're riding a wave right now.
Jason Moore
Yeah. It went up, it went down.
Mike Wright
Now, I'm sure the. The saved by the bell riff, it went over very well with this crowd. So I know that you all remember Mortal Kombat. We all remember when you put in that cheat code. Oh, I got that one button. Fatality. That's what Tyree Gill has. He has the equivalent, the one play equivalent of winning your week, of giving you an entire week's worth of fantasy points. His target to fantasy finish. What I just talked about, it was even crazier his rookie year. So maybe he's just a guy who breaks that measuring technique. You cannot hold him down by efficiency metrics. So the reward is huge for Tyreek Hill, but with the new quarterback and.
Andy Holloway
Sammy Watkinson, this is somebody that could be one of the bigger disappointments if things go wrong, if these risks outweigh the rewards.
Mike Wright
So wide receiver, 14 off the draft board. Wide receiver, seven finish. I've. I'm gonna have to peg him at 40. I don't want a 55 again. So I'm gonna have to drop it.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Mike Wright
To 44% that he gives you a positive return.
Andy Holloway
Josh Gordon. Tyree Kill Tyreek.
Mike Wright
Yeah. I think I'll take Hill there.
Andy Holloway
Adam Thielen.
Mike Wright
Thielen.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
These are all back to back to back in PPR leagues. Ty Hilton and Tyreek Hill.
Mike Wright
How. How's Andrew Luck feeling? Does anyone know? Does anyone have his cell phone number? I'd like to talk to him.
Andy Holloway
He's throwing full size footballs.
Mike Wright
I don't know.
Andy Holloway
Okay. Larry Fitzgerald or Tyreek Hill.
Mike Wright
Fitz. Fits.
Andy Holloway
All right, last one. Stefan Diggs.
Mike Wright
Diggs. Come on now.
Andy Holloway
Interesting. All right, Jason, I want you to give me. I want you to give me a special.
Jason Moore
Well, I'm going to stay in Houston right now.
Andy Holloway
Are you really?
Jason Moore
I. I am. I'm fascina. You know, last season I said a lot in the off season how fascinated I was with the Minnesota Vikings offense. They were the team that I wanted to see the most in preseason. Right now, I feel like that's the Houston Texans. They're the one that I want to see how Deshaun Watson's health is, you know, how Will Fuller is doing as I talked about. And this guy who is a player that I absolutely loved last year. If you've listened for more than a year, you know that this was one of my favorite guys. Deonta Foreman. That is correct. From the crowd. Deonta Foreman, I think is.
Mike Wright
You didn't win anything. I'm sorry.
Jason Moore
A false sense of security is now yours. Deonta Foreman is a really talented player. This is my firm 100 belief. But the risk is high.
Andy Holloway
You liked him before last year.
Jason Moore
Yes, I liked it before last year and we saw him break off.
Andy Holloway
You even liked him before the Achilles injury.
Jason Moore
I liked him a little better before the Achilles injury. That's one of the largest risk factors now. You know, if come draft season it's official that he's going to be on the pup, obviously the risk becomes less fearful. You're you. If you want him, take him at the very last round and then throw him on your ir. Otherwise, don't draft him. But as of right now, we're not sure if he's going to be ready for the start of the season. If he is, he could make some serious noise. However, let me, let me lay out the risks. The Achilles injury is a serious injury. A lot's been made by Mike, by others in the past. Not am I others. I wasn't pointing to you that running backs have not come back strong from the Achilles injury. This is both true and irrelevant because there's no.
Andy Holloway
Tell me more.
Jason Moore
There are no goods, no good. There's no good.
Mike Wright
Yes, your honor. I said it's true and irrelevant.
Jason Moore
Yeah. Now what you got? I admitted it was true. Next. Next Defense strategy. No, here's why it's. Here's why it's irrelevant. Name me the best run. Best young running back who had an Achilles tear that didn't come back. Mikel Lesure, like Kendall Hunter, like, there is no great young running back who had draft capital spend on them that didn't. Running backs are thrown away in the NFL.
Andy Holloway
He didn't use it. Cool.
Jason Moore
They don't need. You know, we have examples. Demarius Thomas came back. He was just as explosive. It's not like you can't come back from this. In fact, a recent I know there's articles out from like 2013 that are worried about running backs, but a very recent study showed that 73% of players in the NFL with the Achilles tendon repair come back healthy. And there's not a big noticeable difference in performance and in games. Now it is a little worse for running backs, but my point is. Yeah. Late in his career, Arian Foster. So that's one problem. Obviously we're in Texas. You guys know that the offensive line, little bit of a problem, I would say, for Houston. And currently he projects to be the backup. So there are, there are, you know, a lot of risk. So what is the reward? What, how good is he? Here is my outline of why I think he's good. His production in college and what he showed last year was incredible. Kevin Cole, formerly of Rotovis, used to have a running back model, a success rate model that was a statistical data analysis that compared different things and it would get an output number and it was extremely accurate. Okay, Anyone that ever scored over a point for. This is the list of all those players. It doesn't matter if they were drafted high, drafted low. The only players that ever scored over a 45, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte. So three wins. Kevin Jones. No. Michael Turner was a win. J.J. arrington. No. DeMarco Murray. Great. Latavius Murray did it in the NFL. LaDanian Tomlinson, Rashard Mendenhall, Reggie Bush, Adrian Peterson, Jonathan Stewart and Larry Johnson, I mean, those are almost entirely fantasy stars. At some point, they, they were almost all running back ones. And Deonta Foreman scored a 53 in that, which put him as the eighth best. Then when you watched last season, if you take out the games where he basically didn't play, I'm talking less than 3% snaps, okay? He was on pace for 800. He was on pace for 812 all purpose yards, okay? While averaging 25% snaps. He barely played. He barely played and he was very, very efficient. So Lamar Miller, who in the beginning of the year was averaging 75 to 85% snaps through the whole season, once they got to the end of the season, they're like, dude, this guy's not getting it done. They borderline benched him. He stuck.
Mike Wright
Oh, they benched him.
Jason Moore
Yeah. I mean, he was getting less than 50% of snapshots. He got less than 30% of snaps. So if Deonta Foreman comes back healthy, I'm telling you, he has the talent to be a star.
Andy Holloway
However, doesn't it scare you that 73% of people come back and play well?
Jason Moore
No, because of what I mentioned about.
Andy Holloway
I mean, that's just, if you, I know that that's still above 50, but.
Jason Moore
If you talk about all players that got this injury, I just think it's sad.
Andy Holloway
It's scary for a young running Back to undergo a serious injury.
Jason Moore
Yes, but the 100% number, including includes journeymen.
Andy Holloway
Sure.
Jason Moore
It's.
Andy Holloway
No, I understand.
Jason Moore
You know where you get injured and you're just not going to get another contract. So the 73 number isn't as bad as you think. However, I'm going to handicap this the more that I. I did a lot of research on this.
Andy Holloway
You did not draft him in Scotty Fishbowl today.
Jason Moore
I did not. We had the opportunity. I bypassed and I told Mike, look, oh, this is. Here's a good opportunity. Oh, no, no. Because I know. I know I'm gonna get heat from this.
Mike Wright
It's the glasses.
Jason Moore
I know I'm gonna get heat from this, but I don't care. I'm back on Lamar Miller. I think not. I think Lamar Miller. I think Lamar Miller is a huge value. In the fifth round. In the fifth round. He's a value. Deal with it.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, that's one of your best.
Mike Wright
He did set a new world record for uses of the word, however, in giving an argument.
Andy Holloway
That's troubling. That's generally bad.
Jason Moore
Yeah. Guinness, though, I would still like the certificate.
Andy Holloway
Do we still have DeMarco Murray fans in the audience tonight? This is news that we didn't share yet, but DeMarco Murray announced that he was going to sign with five teams a couple days ago and then he retired today.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
So the career of DeMarco Murray is over.
Jason Moore
The advice to draft him as your last round of best ball did not age well. Yeah.
Andy Holloway
The risk reward of demarco Murray is now firmly in the risk column. But he's not my name. I'm gonna go with the player DeMarco Murray chose to endorse for whatever that's worth, and that's Derrick Henry. So Derrick Henry, I think he is one of the most polarizing players because everybody wants him to be a superstar for years. Right. We want him to be a star. We want to find a way to start him. And you don't have DeMarco there anymore. The risks of Derrick Henry in this offense, and I've never been a giant Derrick Henry fan, is that he might not be good enough. Right. This was somebody who made all of his fantasy fortune on end of the game runs. He's got the highest yards per carry in the fourth quarter, but first half of games he's a 3.1 carry guy. So he might not be very good.
Mike Wright
He wears them down well.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, that's what they say. Except for he's not a full time back. 4th worst percentage he uses other people.
Mike Wright
To wear down the.
Andy Holloway
What do you expect big guys to be able to do? Answer that question.
Mike Wright
What do big guys do in a yard per carry?
Andy Holloway
No, what are big guys supposed to do on the field when you give them the ball?
Jason Moore
Score touchdowns, score touchdowns, Wear down short yardage, Eat well.
Andy Holloway
Fourth worst on the field.
Jason Moore
Sure. I mean, Zeke always, like, feed me.
Mike Wright
Blue 42.
Jason Moore
Okay, that was easy.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. Where are your. Where are your Cowboy Zubas, by the way?
Mike Wright
Seriously, I was, I was.
Andy Holloway
Grief. That's disappointing.
Mike Wright
Grief to no end for my Minnesota pandering. Meanwhile, Houston Texan boy over here, we're just letting him off the hook.
Jason Moore
I'll be honest. Listen, listen, my geography. Like, I know Houston's in Texas. Obviously he's claiming ignorance. I am 100% claiming. I didn't think there would be Houston fans here if I was pandering. I would have gone Dallas. I thought if anything, it would be like they would boo them anyways.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, all right, I'll move on. Look, the draft price is another problem with Derek Henry because everybody believes he's going to be great. He's a third round guy in standard leagues. Deion Lewis is a sixth round guy in every, like, major category. Deion Lewis was better than Derrick Henry last year, including short yarded situations. In fact, Derrick Henry fourth worst percentage in football on third and short, he converted third and short 40% of the time. We got some Derrick Henry haters embodied.
Mike Wright
In the first row.
Andy Holloway
And so you got to pay a draft price. Mike, do you want him more than Guice?
Mike Wright
No.
Andy Holloway
Penny?
Mike Wright
No.
Jason Moore
Doug.
Andy Holloway
Doug Baldwin? No. Tyreek Hill? Maybe.
Mike Wright
No.
Jason Moore
Maybe.
Andy Holloway
Jay Ajayi? Maybe.
Jason Moore
Warmer.
Mike Wright
Warmer.
Andy Holloway
Now the reward is that, look, he comes in like a wrecking ball and scores 10 touchdowns.
Mike Wright
Miley Cyrus style.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, I don't think that nickname is going to stick. But in two shorter years, 10 touchdowns. I mean, five a year from Derrick Henry. And if they choose. See, coaches can be stubborn about this. They can go into the season and say, Deion Lewis is going to be our third down guy and he's going to be our between the 20s guy and Derek Henry's getting the ball inside the 20 no matter what. And inside the 20, he was actually okay in the. In the red zone. So he's only stuffed six times in the red zone. So maybe he gets an extra Red Bull in his system and finds a way there where he can't find it all over the field. I don't buy in. I'm with all the boos. I think that you're talking about probably a 70, 30 chance that you're disappointed in paying a third round price for Derrick Henry. So.
Mike Wright
Well, Ty, I'm putting myself on the record in the case between the thickness and the quickness.
Andy Holloway
Oh yeah.
Mike Wright
You going with the quickness or the I'm team thickness?
Andy Holloway
You're team I'm.
Mike Wright
I've got Derrick Henry finishing ahead of Dion Lewis and fantasy points.
Andy Holloway
Okay.
Mike Wright
I'm the only person in the known.
Andy Holloway
Universe, at least in the audience.
Mike Wright
Oh, they're calling for a water bet.
Jason Moore
Oh, oh, waterbed.
Andy Holloway
Agreed.
Mike Wright
Agreed.
Andy Holloway
The quickness and the thickness.
Mike Wright
That's right.
Andy Holloway
That's what they call you and I too.
Jason Moore
And I'll take the path right in the middle. 50. 50.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, that's fair.
Jason Moore
I can't be wrong.
Mike Wright
That's the Jason Moore special.
Andy Holloway
All right, we got five mailbag. So we got one more each. All right, let's hear it.
Mike Wright
I want to talk about Mark Ingram because there is risk. Step one. It's called the four game suspension. Suspension.
Andy Holloway
Not going to score a bunch in those four games.
Mike Wright
No, he will score approximately zero points. Last year, weeks 15 through 19. 19 means that they played in the playoffs. Just want to make sure people.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, got it.
Mike Wright
Camara was getting more touches. I know that people are bringing that up. I will say it's not a lot. However, in that important 10 zone, Ingram got one opportunity to Camara's four. Ingram was getting squeezed out of those goal line opportunities. Ingram is 28. He's on a contract year. Do they squeeze the last drop or do they move on? A player who is being suspended for the first four games is being drafted at the beginning of the fifth round as the 24th running back. The Saints have a bye week in week. That means heading into week seven you could play Mark Ingram once.
Andy Holloway
No thanks.
Mike Wright
That's. That's pretty close to half of your fantasy season. Now here is the reward for Mark Ingram. This isn't the first. It's not the first time we've seen a short season for Mark Ingram. And that did not stop him from being a dominant Fantasy Running back. 2014, only 13 games. Running back 15. 2015, only 12 games. Running back 13. That would be a clear reward if you're drafting the running back 24. And I want to talk about these opportunities. From week 10 on, Camara 47 targets. Ingram in that time, 32 targets. I mean that puts him on a 73 target pace. He's still getting opportunity, especially in the passing game. He was still seeing double digit carries in nearly every single Game. He was the running back sixth last year. Now, here's the reward I really want to talk about on this show. We talk about second half players frequently. We all know because we play fantasy football. Guys that show up on championship teams frequently have fresh legs. Mark Ingram is going to have the freshest, the freshest of the fresh. So fresh and so clean.
Andy Holloway
So fresh.
Mike Wright
How about a player who has been a top 10 running back for the past two seasons that heading into week seven has only played one game? That's very interesting.
Andy Holloway
So you're spinning his complete absence as a positive.
Mike Wright
You have? Yes, actually, I am. And I know that there's risk because you got to carry him. Granted, you're not taking zeros for Mark Ingram because you are prepared for the suspension. You have to throw out the end of season ranking for Mark Ingram and just look at what he can do for you in the second half of the season. Mark Ingram in the fifth. It is rich. It is a rich.
E
Mike.
Mike Wright
Yeah. Public. The public opinion.
Jason Moore
Are you worried that the fact that he was the running back six, but also he was on peds, Maybe they helped. Now he's not on them.
Mike Wright
Maybe. That certainly weighs into the risk. I will go revise my notes. Thank you, public opinion. You brought a good point to the table.
Jason Moore
You're welcome.
E
I did it.
Mike Wright
But Mark Ingram, if you draft appropriately.
Andy Holloway
Where. Where would you take him? Tell. Why would you take him?
Mike Wright
Right.
Andy Holloway
I heard a 9th round, 10th round. Where do you want him?
Mike Wright
This guy's trying to get a 55. I would take Mark Ingram. I would take him in the sixth round.
Jason Moore
Whoa, whoa. I think that's. I, I will say this. I think you're gonna need to take him in this. Someone is taking him around there. Around.
Mike Wright
It will be all right.
Andy Holloway
Jason, do you want me to hit it?
Jason Moore
Yeah, let's bring it home.
Andy Holloway
You got your third guy.
Jason Moore
Oh, I sure do carry on my wayward son. Don't you cry no more. It's the sweet one. You. You talked. You talked, Andy, about Alvin Camaro and the breakout season, the B season and Sony Michelle. Could be that I firmly.
Andy Holloway
You are waving the flag.
Jason Moore
I am waving the flag. Planting the flag, climbing the flag. I'm gonna jump over that thing like Mario.
Mike Wright
How do you have him in the risk reward when you have him at 100 reward?
Jason Moore
No, I don't have him at 100 reward. Here. I'll lay out the risk. The risk is very clear.
Mike Wright
Candy. What's the problem?
Jason Moore
What's the problem? It's all delicious. It's 100 reward. There's no risk with candy. Look, here's a couple of easy to see risk options. LeGarrett Blunt, Theo Riddick. You have a goal line back that they just signed this offseason who's a proven touchdown machine. Why would you make Kerryon Johnson the short yardage back or the goal lineback? You have Theo Riddick. Theo Riddick over the last both three and four seasons, whichever way you look at it, is the second player. Well, there's different data. He is the second player in the NFL. Allow it. Thank you, Mike. He ranks second in the NFL in receptions for the running back position. If you're talking four years, the only player ahead of him is Le'Veon Bell. So Theo Riddick is going to catch the ball. Lookara, Blunt's going to get the short yardage. Where does Kerryon Johnson find success? And for that matter, where does any running back for the, for the Detroit Lions find success? They have the longest drought of 100 yard rusher. They have not been successful at running the ball. All of these things present the flags.
Andy Holloway
That say they miss Joy Bell that carry.
Jason Moore
Yeah, Joy was actually successful.
Andy Holloway
That's what I mean.
Jason Moore
Yeah. So here's, here's the thing. All of those reasons are clear reasons why Kerryon Johnson carries risk. What I love about that is that they push him down, right? They push him far. It's not going to cost you as much as it's going to cost Sony Michelle. Sony, Michelle's in the fifth round. Kerryon Johnson, you're going to get him in the seventh round. Hopefully. Are you? You were like a week ago. I mean, I'm beating this drum. But keep it quiet, people. Here's the reality as to why I believe so much in Kerryon Johnson. He is a great running back and he is the best outside of Saquon. He is the best three down back. He is. I mean, just like last season when you looked at Alvin Camara and you know, he was one of my favorite guys. I, you know, in our bold prediction, I said he's going to be a top three rookie running back. Even though there was like six guys going ahead of him. The reason was pass catching. 100% because of pass catching. And yeah, Theo Riddick's there. But you know what else it shows? Maybe, maybe it just shows that, oh, Matthew Stafford throws to the running back a whole heck of a lot and carry on only has to beat out Theo Riddick. Theo Riddick is not some scary proposition to me to beat out. Is anyone really afraid he's not here. Is anyone afraid? Is anybody afraid of LeGarrett blunt being too good for Kerryon Johnson to bypass? No, I'm not. They traded up for him in the second round and they have the best offensive line that they have had in the entire Matthew Stafford era. And that's not just my opinion or your opinion. Pro Football Focus, who does all the scouting, all the reporting, all the projecting on their offensive line, they just released their rankings. They gave them, you know, a top half line and said that this is the best offensive line that Matthew Stafford has ever had. When you trade up and you say, I'm going to focus on the run, I'm going to trade up to get a talented guy in the second, I mean this was the, this was the running back Alabama wanted and he turned them down and went to Auburn. He is super talented and yes, you might have a slow start. You did with Alvin Kamara. A lot of people got him off the waivers in week three. Hold on to carry on, I believe and I'm planting that flag, the Kareem.
Andy Holloway
Hunt type of season.
Jason Moore
Yes. 90%.
Andy Holloway
The hunt. 90% what? What?
Jason Moore
90.
Mike Wright
I can't even look at you. 90.
Andy Holloway
Wow. I that's bold, my friend. Well, also known as someone said that's wrong. Yeah, you did something wrong.
Jason Moore
You follow your heart, I'll follow mine.
Andy Holloway
Yeah. Yeah. We'll see. I'm going to bring up Robbie Anderson before we get into our live Dallas mailbag. Now, Robbie Anderson, we don't talk about him a lot. He's got a bit of a Mark Ingram problem to start the year potentially. Now he is not in legal trouble anymore from the, from the legal side. Now from the NFL side, it's very likely that he will get a suspension in line with the personal conduct policy. Maybe it's a game, maybe it's two games. He obviously says he thinks it'll be zero games.
Mike Wright
That's what I would say.
Andy Holloway
That's what he would do.
Mike Wright
Yeah, he would do zero if I were the NFL.
Andy Holloway
Risk one is that you miss a game or two of Robbie Anderson. Risk two flash in a pan one trick pony type of guy. He runs down the field and catches the football. He doesn't have a diverse enough route tree. Another problem might be you didn't really have other options, right. Quincy and Newell coming back. Terrell Pryor is there.
Mike Wright
Took a lot of injuries for him.
Andy Holloway
I was waiting for you, Mike. And you let him down.
Mike Wright
Oh, I didn't hear the.
Andy Holloway
Terrell Pryor was there.
Mike Wright
Terrell Pryor does not get singing anymore.
Andy Holloway
He doesn't, he has to earn his song.
Mike Wright
Which, which means that Terrell Pryor does not get singing anymore.
Andy Holloway
Right. But the reward to me for Robbie Anderson is that we, we have the warts that are. He's stuck on the Jets. The quarterback situation, you don't know what it is and he's got, you know, concerns with how good the offense is even going to be. But over a six game span in the middle of the season when he was actually playing, I mean maybe you don't realize this. Six straight starts inside the top 24, three top 12 finishes, 25 years old, seven touchdowns last year, six of which were 20 plus yards, which was more than the jets had as a team the year before. That takes elite level talent. That takes elite level ability. You turned Josh McCown into one of the best deep passers in football. That seems like something hard to do. And so the reward is that what you saw on the field is talent. Talent trumps everything else. And you're going to get a player who when he's on the field for 14 games, he has eight touchdown potential, one of the best fly route runners in all of football. And so for me, I think that the reward is going to outweigh the risk for Robbie Anderson. I don't think you have to pay too much and you have possible high upside. And you're not talking about a guy like projecting desean Jackson to return to form. You've got a guy that's 25 years old, he's in the prime of his career. And I'm not worried about Hanson or in Newmar, I really am not. Or Prior. It's Robbie Anderson. And So whether it's McKeown or Darnold, whatever the case may be, I'm actually a Robbie Anderson fan. Do you guys have thoughts on that?
Jason Moore
You have him ranked, you have him ranked at 19. So what is your odds? Must be heavily in his favor. Your handicap.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, no, I do, I have a 65, 35.
Jason Moore
I thought it'd be higher.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, no, I.
Jason Moore
A little disappointed.
Andy Holloway
And that comes from not knowing if he's going to get one, two, three game suspension, whatever that may be. So any other thoughts on Robbie?
Mike Wright
I believe in Quincy Noonwa. I do believe in the talent of Robbie Anderson, but like I said, it took a, it took a lot of magic to get him into the, into the position to succeed. He did succeed when given the opportunity. Can he hold on to it?
Andy Holloway
All right, so in summary, who were your three guys? Jason, you had, I had Houston.
Mike Wright
Houston Houston.
Andy Holloway
Houston. Foreman and Will Fuller along Johnson.
Jason Moore
Carry on, Johnson.
Andy Holloway
I had Michelle the fitness consigliere Robbie Anderson and Derek Henry and Mike Jerick.
Mike Wright
McKinnon. Tyreek Hill, Mark Ingram.
Andy Holloway
All right, Dallas, if you're ready, warm up those. It's very important that you compete when it comes to the mailbag drop. We want to invite Brad Evans to come join us for the mailbag.
Mike Wright
Paging Brad Evans.
Andy Holloway
Paging Bradley.
Mike Wright
Brad Evans.
Andy Holloway
Bradley.
Mike Wright
I'm going to search for him on Yahoo.
Andy Holloway
And I want your best.
Mike Wright
Oh, there he is.
Andy Holloway
Dallas, I want your best. You don't get to participate. All right, are you ready? Let's hear it.
Jason Moore
Mailbag. Oh, yeah, baby.
Andy Holloway
And if you're part of the mailbag, let's line up behind the microphone here. Get your questions out. You know how it works. We're going to try to help you win your league.
Jason Moore
Good job, Dallas.
Andy Holloway
And we've got Brad up here. He's going to help you win your league as well. Brad's going to be out at NFC tomorrow as well.
E
I'm going to lose your league if you listen to my advice. Not if.
Andy Holloway
Not if you wear these.
Mike Wright
Not if you wear these. Oh, yeah, it's a big daddy situation. Now you can do exactly what.
Andy Holloway
What you normally do. Say Anything you want.
Jason Moore
Tricks on him. Those are prescription. He can't see nothing.
E
Yeah, I was a little blurry. I wasn't sure if that happened from backstage.
Andy Holloway
So first, let's get a name question. My name is Brad.
F
I'm from.
Andy Holloway
Brad. What's up from Waco.
Mike Wright
You got to talk in the microphone, Brad.
Andy Holloway
My question is, outside of DJ Moore, which rookie wide receiver do you think is going to have the biggest impact on the season?
Mike Wright
Rookie wide receivers, what do you think?
Jason Moore
It seems like a hometown player plant because.
Mike Wright
Oh, clippity club.
Jason Moore
Clippity club, my hooves. Michael Gallup, I think, has the easiest path towards opportunity, in my opinion. I don't. I don't see the other guys being able to be the wide receiver one on their own team. Well, no, Larry Fitzgerald's going to be the number one on his team. You know, Calvin Ridley is great, but Julio Jones is clearly the number one. Michael Gallup has a path to, you know, you'd say like a. Like a track, a horse track to that number one wide receiver. So that would be. That would be my pick.
Andy Holloway
Do you buy in there? You got. You like Calvin Ridley?
E
No, I don't like Calvin Ridley. Michael Gallo. I do like Michael Gallo because there's. I. I live in Denver.
Andy Holloway
All right.
E
Michael Galluper, product at Colorado State University. A player that's got a well rounded skill set. He was actually my second best rookie wide receiver in this year's draft class pre draft. And you got 52% of the target share up for grabs. And Alan Hearn sucks.
Andy Holloway
So you know, put it all together.
E
And Gallup makes sense. But my guy.
Andy Holloway
I almost wrote my letter from Alan Hearns to you.
Jason Moore
I thought and it would have said that I thought for sure your letter was going to be Ty Montgomery.
Andy Holloway
Did you really? That's.
E
That hurts me a little.
Mike Wright
He hurt his finger when he was writing.
Andy Holloway
Other than DJ Morris Gallup the guy you like or give me another name of somebody that you.
E
James Washington.
Mike Wright
Oh no.
E
Oklahoma State product. It looks like he's going to be locked in outside in the starting lineup for the Pittsburgh Steelers. An offensive runs a ton of three wide receiver sets. Juju's going to man the slot. Oh, and who's the other dude on the other side?
Andy Holloway
Yes.
E
Some guy named Antonio Brown. What does that mean? A whole lot of favorable coverage for my guy James Washington who will hopefully stay on the straight and narrow unlike Mark Davis.
Jason Moore
Bryant did.
Andy Holloway
Yes. Hard to do apparently.
Mike Wright
Yeah. There's not a lot of clear opportunity for rookie wide receivers this season. So the name I want to bring up is Dante Pettis.
Jason Moore
Yes.
Mike Wright
San Francisco. This is simply because then I. I yet again get to mention the handsome one. Jimmy Handsome, who throws for a lot of yardage. Hopefully those touchdowns will improve. And Dante Pettis could.
Andy Holloway
You're a big Pettis fan?
Mike Wright
He. He. I think he's good. And the path is very clear. By week one he could be a starting wide receiver. Where these other guys we're talking about besides DJ Moore, they're. They're a third option when they're going too wide. Those. These guys aren't on the field.
E
Mike, can I ask you a question?
Mike Wright
Yes.
E
Has Dante Pettis ever consumed a protein shake?
Mike Wright
I do not know. I've never spoken with him.
E
About 160 pounds soaking wet. That's the only downside of his game.
Mike Wright
That's fine as long as he catches the ball a few times and we don't get a Marty situation where he splits into two pieces.
Jason Moore
Next question.
Andy Holloway
Thanks.
Mike Wright
Thank you. State your name.
F
Going on, fellas? Yeah, my name is Nate Hamilton for you guys don't know. I write for these fine gentlemen up here.
Andy Holloway
Louder. Nate. Much you don't speak for us. How is this too much? Too loud?
F
Okay, Mike, we'll finish our Jerick McKinnon debate. This weekend. That's gonna happen. Okay, so my question is, and despite your letter from Kareem Hunt, how can any of you justify the first round draft pick that is going for Kareem Hunt right now? For a guy who through eight weeks stretch did not top 11.7 fantasy points and half point PPR in five of those weeks did not top eight points. Oh, now listen, if you ask any Kareem Hunt owner, they were not happy with him for the majority of the season. Okay? So my question is with, With Spencer Ware back the, A new, A new.
Mike Wright
Quarter, are you throwing up air quotes for. Spencer Ware is back.
F
He's back. A new quarterback, Andy Reid. For those who want to blame Andy Reid for, you know, Kareem Hunt's woes, newsflash, he's still there. How can you justify him going in the first round this year? That's my question.
Jason Moore
It's easy.
Andy Holloway
I've got an easy answer for that one.
Jason Moore
Super easy.
Andy Holloway
I don't.
Jason Moore
Oh, that's not the answer I'll give.
Andy Holloway
I don't have him going in the first round this year. So I'm, I'm with you on that, but not because of all those reasons. I think Spencer Ware's health is going to determine how far I move cream Hunt up. I, I don't think. I mean, would you agree with this? Does Andy Reid have a desire to give one running back 83 of the snaps in the back?
Jason Moore
No.
E
No, not necessarily.
Andy Holloway
Now, is he going to have his hand forced again this year?
E
The biggest issue, you know, with Kareem Hunt is Andy Reid, because Andy Reid will have these brain farts on occasion that. Remember we saw with Jamal Charles? Yeah, he would just disappear in games.
Jason Moore
He would vanish and then after the game, and then after the game be like, you know, I need to get that Jamal Charles guy the ball.
Andy Holloway
We could just find a way.
E
He goes, I just forgot.
Jason Moore
I just plain forgot. Sorry, guys. My bad. All right, here, here's the answer though. I mean, if you look at our rankings, he is not a consensus first round pick. What Andy said. But the reason of. How can you justify him going in the first round is very easy. It's the easiest question to ever answer. He was the running back three last year. And so the average draft position says he's going to be drafted in the first round. I mean, unless you're retired, if you finished in the top three at running back last season, you're going to be a first round pick. So that's why we often talk about him as potential to bust. I know, Mike, you're. You're higher than we.
Mike Wright
And the argument is for Spencer Ware. He suffered a devastating. A devastating knee injury. To call him, proclaim him back in this less than a full calendar year to recovery from.
Andy Holloway
Was it difficult?
Mike Wright
Torn pcl, damaged LCL or rare injury? I may have those flipped around.
Jason Moore
He's not back yet.
Andy Holloway
Yeah, there's season Ls everywhere.
Mike Wright
We have not seen it.
E
Seasonals.
Jason Moore
Yeah, that's correct.
Mike Wright
Meanwhile, he led the league in rushing. He had 53 receptions. I brought up the staff for Jerick McKinnon of top seven guys have receptions in that middle 50 range. And they're already talking about we need to get Kareem Hunt more involved in the passing game. Maybe he doesn't get 272 carries. Maybe he gets 220. Maybe gets 230. That's a huge hit to his rushing total. Maybe his receptions go up to 60 plus. Which we all. If you don't know a target is far more valuable than a carry when it comes to fantasy running back. So I think that the Chiefs will be an underrated team in Kareem Hunt will get that passing down work as well as the goal line. Like I talked about. Tyree Kill was sensational. But they don't pass when they get close to the goal line. They go to the running back. And that even if Spencer Ware is back, that's Kareem Hunt's job. So that's it. And I get. I understand why people are worried for Kareem Hunt. I just am not sure.
Jason Moore
Next question.
Andy Holloway
Thanks, Nate.
G
Travis from North Carolina.
Mike Wright
Hey, Travis.
Jason Moore
Nice. Nice, Travis.
Mike Wright
That's presumptuous, Brad.
E
That's true.
Jason Moore
Bonjour. It's far away, but it's still not.
E
Quite that far east.
Jason Moore
Yeah. All right.
G
All right. So we have a situation. I'm on the clock. Oh, we're making a big, nice Scotty fishbowl. Okay, I've punted wide receiver. I'm loaded up at every other position. Back of the 15th round, need a wide receiver. High upside options are Albert Wilson, Jordan Matthews, Cam Meredith and Geronimo Allison.
Jason Moore
I think Brad's gonna chime in first.
E
I'm excited.
Jason Moore
He's freaking out. Oh, my gosh.
E
Somebody hold me down. Hold me down. Puffy. There's two guys here that immediately come to mind. Number one, Cameron Meredith. All right, now.
Mike Wright
Who cares?
E
Please tell me there's another Chicago Bear fan in the house.
Andy Holloway
Wow.
Mike Wright
Not down.
Andy Holloway
You gotta let down big.
E
I'm buying my beers tonight, apparently.
Jason Moore
All right.
E
So here's why I love Cam Meredith. He's healthy.
Andy Holloway
Yeah.
E
We got one.
Jason Moore
Hallelujah.
E
I will buy you a beverage later. Come find me.
Mike Wright
Yeah, yeah. Jay Grizz is somewhere around here.
Andy Holloway
Cardboard bear. That'll be.
E
So Cam Meredith is finally healthy. Remember two years ago when he was at full strength with Chicago? He was a fantasy football playoff savior. A guy that had a December to remember. He was wide receiver 2 in overall production from weeks 14 through 17, primarily operating out of the slot. Now in New Orleans. He's going to work outside. You're going to see him in the slot. And who's he tied to? A future hall of Famer. And Drew Brees. He's working also opposite of Michael Thomas. So he's going to see favorable coverage. I think there's a legitimate shot here, fellas.
Jason Moore
For Cam Mary, it's high upside.
E
60967 touchdowns. I think that's extraordinary value in round 15 of the fishbowl draft.
Jason Moore
It's definitely high upside. But if you said you punted wide receiver and so you need solid and steady. That scares me a little bit. To take someone that is currently not.
E
It's round 15 though.
Jason Moore
Sure. I mean, it depends on your.
Mike Wright
So let me give you the rest.
Jason Moore
Of the options that I.
Andy Holloway
What's that?
G
Do you want to know the rest of the wide receiver core? Because I only have three. I have Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin. So a little bit of safety there involved.
Mike Wright
So you have Sammy Watkins, you have one wide receiver.
Jason Moore
I. I would personally rather have. I would look for Paul Richardson. He goes super late. He's probably available. What?
G
He's still there?
Jason Moore
Then draft him.
Mike Wright
So. So Brad. Brad, what reports have you. Have you heard or seen for the. The positive proof of the health of Cam Meredith's knee?
E
He feels that he is going to.
Andy Holloway
Be a full strength besides him.
E
He feels.
Mike Wright
Because I guess what I can run a 44540 if you ask me, I can do it.
Jason Moore
I mean prove it.
Mike Wright
That's what I'm talking about.
Jason Moore
Prove it.
Andy Holloway
It could take time. It could take. It could take four to six weeks even if you. Even if he is healthy to get into rhythm with Breeze to get to be playing enough snaps.
E
When did he tear that knee? Guys preseason. So he. He's had a full entire season to recover. I. I think he is going to be at or near full strength when training camp opens for the New Orleans. Now I will say this. The hot dog on a stick in this situation is Jordan Matthews. You got to remember, he's still only 25 years old.
Mike Wright
You got to be careful when you. When you speak positive about Jordan Matthews to Andy. He's. He's gonna throw. He's known to lash out physically when you speak positively.
Andy Holloway
I'm not a big fan. I'm not a big fan.
E
He's only 25.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
He's trying to play on every NFL team.
E
Julian Edelman. Julie Edelman is not going to be around for four weeks.
Andy Holloway
I. Oh, I'm aware.
Jason Moore
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
That's how he makes his. His cheddar. He finds those situations telling you.
Jason Moore
Yeah. I would also look at Tyler Lockett and Didi Westbrook.
Andy Holloway
Okay, next question. Thanks for the question.
Jason Moore
Hello, ballers. Chris from Austin, Texas.
Andy Holloway
What's up?
Jason Moore
So nice to meet you, Chris. Welcome to Texas.
Andy Holloway
Thank you.
Jason Moore
I think everybody in this room would agree. Agree with me that besides football, something that Texans have a deep love for is barbecue. Yes.
Mike Wright
Okay.
Jason Moore
It's also something very near and dear to my heart.
Andy Holloway
Dr.
Jason Moore
So I have a keep trade cut for you.
Andy Holloway
Oh, cool. All right.
Jason Moore
Brisket, sausage.
Andy Holloway
Yes.
Jason Moore
Or chicken? Oh, chicken.
E
Chicken's immediately eliminated. Right?
Jason Moore
Yeah, that's gone. All right, so who's trading for chicken?
Mike Wright
We had his heart. Doctor Is trading for chicken.
Andy Holloway
Brisket, sausage.
Mike Wright
Chicken, keep trade cut.
Andy Holloway
I'm keeping the brisket. Keeping the brisket.
Jason Moore
I figured that would be the popular. The pop. But I. Look, brisket's got high value. I'm trading brisket, and I love barbecue sausage. It's. Oh, it's so good. Yes.
Andy Holloway
Is that where you're going with.
E
Well, look, I'm from Illinois originally.
Mike Wright
I'll take care.
Andy Holloway
Meredith.
E
He's delicious like a barbecued sausage.
Andy Holloway
I'm from Illinois.
E
I got a lot of respect for two meats, so I'm going sausage all the way.
Jason Moore
Very nice. All right, thanks.
E
Unpopular choice.
Andy Holloway
A delicious one. He's a little too tall for me. Hi, I'm Asia from here.
Jason Moore
Oh, welcome.
Andy Holloway
Thank you. That's a hard question to come after, but I'm going into my fourth year playing fantasy. Third year doing season long. How many leagues around this time do you think I can handle that? I can bring the championship home in. See, that comes down to enjoyment.
Mike Wright
Yeah.
Andy Holloway
For me. Right. Like, if you have every player on every team, do you enjoy watching football?
Mike Wright
And I'll say this so I feel like the most fantasy players experience this 55 leagues.
Jason Moore
You.
Mike Wright
You get in with one, you dip your toes, you. You find out this is freaking. This is a ton of fun. You maybe add another league, and then you go out of control. The bell Curve goes up, I'm going to do 10 leagues. I can manage them all. And it's, it's a mistake because you get burned out. You have leagues that you. You have to set waivers and it becomes a choreograph. Fantasy football should never have an aspect of mopping your floor. So I highly recommend it's the magic number for a reason. So I say three.
Andy Holloway
All right. What do you think?
Jason Moore
Three. Main league. I was in 15 last year, like I said.
E
But I'm a machine, baby. It really depends upon how much free time you got.
Jason Moore
Right.
Andy Holloway
It's, it's. You can be in a lot, but are you invest. How many are you investing it in to the point where you're 15. All right. By the way, are you kidding me? Guess what?
Jason Moore
What?
Andy Holloway
Asia was a very special winner. She actually won tickets to the show and she won the DAC Prescott signed helmet.
E
Nice.
Jason Moore
Very nice.
Mike Wright
Congratulations, Asia. Thank you to Pristine Oxford for her for providing the helmet. Enjoy. It is a beauty.
Andy Holloway
And that. That's going to wrap it up. Thank you, Brad, for joining us on the Mailbag. Thank you. Trent, Andy, Ethan from the nffc. I hope you guys are sticking around. Who's going to NFFC tomorrow? Yeah, that is great. Ryan, Chris from Margin Walker Entertainment, thank you for helping us with this show draft. Thank you for sponsoring this event, Pristine Auction. We mentioned it. And thanks to you, the Foot Clan.
Jason Moore
And yes.
Andy Holloway
And we will. We're gonna take a picture, do some fun stuff after the show here today.
Mike Wright
So. So we will. Absolutely. And for you listening at home, we will see you next time. We love you so much. Goodbye.
Andy Holloway
Goodbye.
Jason Moore
Thank you for listening to another edition of the Fantasy footballers podcast. Don't forget to visit us on on the web at www.thefantasyfootballers.com and follow us on Twitter at theffballers.
Fantasy Footballers Podcast Episode Summary
Episode: Risk vs Reward, Love Letters, LIVE in Dallas
Release Date: July 17, 2018
The Fantasy Footballers team—Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright—kick off this live episode from Draft.com Studios in Dallas, Texas. The hosts energetically welcome the hyped-up Dallas crowd, setting the stage for an engaging and interactive show. Andy expresses hope for an unprecedented mailbag drop, underscoring the episode's interactive nature.
Andy Holloway [00:24]: "Dallas. Welcome in to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast live in Dallas, Texas."
One of the episode's highlights is the whimsical letter-reading segment. Andy receives letters addressed to each host, humorously penned by fantasy football "players" expressing their feelings and frustrations.
Andy reads a letter ostensibly from Juju, a fictional running back, expressing unrequited love and disappointment with Jason's fantasy management.
Andy Holloway [03:39]: "Dearest Jason, I've received all of your previous correspondence, and it's now quite clear your feelings for me... Please stop writing. Your unrequited love will only lead to embarrassment as my current draft position cannot sustain your expectations. Plus, it's really, really creepy."
Jason responds passionately, hinting at his lingering affection despite recognizing the letters' playful nature.
Jason Moore [05:08]: "I know I'm gonna get heat from this, but I don't care. I'm back on Lamar Miller. I think not. I think Lamar Miller is a huge value."
Mike receives a letter from Kareem, another fictional player, critiquing the show's analysis and asserting his own fantasy value.
Mike Wright [07:56]: "First off, I appreciate you and your team believing in me this past year... you guys grief me for my fantasy dry spell in the middle of the season."
The exchange continues with light-hearted banter, showcasing the hosts' camaraderie and humor.
The core of the episode delves into evaluating players who present significant risk but also substantial reward potential. Each host presents their candidates, discussing the factors that make these players both promising and precarious.
Mike introduces Jerick McKinnon as a high-risk, high-reward running back. He highlights McKinnon's inconsistent role and fluctuating performance metrics.
Mike Wright [13:23]: "Jerick McKinnon. High risk, high reward."
Risks:
Rewards:
Mike rates the chance of Jerick working out at 70% despite the inherent risks.
Mike Wright [16:57]: "I am not ignoring that. There is certainly risk but the opportunity is there."
Jason analyzes Houston Texans wide receiver Will Fuller, emphasizing his explosive potential tempered by injury history and limited target volume.
Jason Moore [19:00]: "Will Fuller has the trifecta of risk that I usually try to avoid: expensive draft capital player, low volume, and an injury risk."
Risks:
Rewards:
Jason assesses Will Fuller's success probability at 55%, acknowledging both his explosive capability and the concerns surrounding his durability.
Jason Moore [22:50]: "I would put it in the negative. I think it's a 45% chance that he succeeds."
Andy discusses rookie running back Sony Michel, balancing his impressive college performance against potential pitfalls in the NFL environment.
Andy Holloway [23:17]: "Sony Michel. The risks are with ball security, snaps, and inconsistent opportunity."
Risks:
Rewards:
Andy estimates a 65% likelihood that the risks are manageable and Sony Michel delivers significant rewards.
Andy Holloway [26:18]: "So, yeah, that risk is high, but the reward can be Alvin Kamara type."
Tyreek Hill is presented as a high-reward wide receiver with notable consistency yet facing new quarterback dynamics that may impact his performance.
Mike Wright [27:27]: "Tyreek Hill... has the equivalent of a 'Fatality'—one play can win your week."
Risks:
Rewards:
Mike downgrades Hill’s success probability to 44%, reflecting concerns over quarterback change and stability.
Mike Wright [30:34]: "Tyreek Hill pegged at 44% that he gives you a positive return."
Jason advocates for Deonta Foreman, emphasizing his talent and potential resurgence despite an Achilles injury.
Jason Moore [31:19]: "Deonta Foreman is a really talented player. This is my firm 100% belief."
Risks:
Rewards:
Jason acknowledges the injury risk but remains optimistic about Foreman’s return, rating his potential favorably due to the 73% chance of a strong comeback.
Jason Moore [36:16]: "If Deonta Foreman comes back healthy, he has the talent to be a star."
The show transitions to a lively mailbag segment, featuring audience participation facilitated by Brad Evans. Listeners pose questions ranging from rookie wide receiver impact to fantasy drafting strategies.
A listener from Waco asks which rookie wide receiver, aside from DJ Moore, is poised to make the biggest impact this season.
Jason Moore [57:04]: "Michael Gallup has the easiest path towards opportunity... His target share is up for grabs."
Responses:
A listener grapples with selecting a late-round wide receiver, offering options like Cam Meredith, Jordan Matthews, and others.
Brad Evans [65:04]: "Cameron Meredith is finally healthy and has a legitimate shot with favorable coverage."
Responses:
A listener questions the rationale behind drafting Kareem Hunt in the first round, given his inconsistent performance and potential competition from Spencer Ware.
Jason Moore [61:24]: "He was the running back three last year... average draft position says he's going to be drafted in the first round." Mike Wright [63:01]: "Kareem Hunt will get passing downs and goal-line opportunities, making him more valuable."
Responses:
The episode wraps up with exciting prize giveaways, including a Dak Prescott-signed Cowboys helmet sponsored by Pristine Auction. Winner Asia from the audience is announced, further energizing the live crowd.
Andy Holloway [71:35]: "Asia was a very special winner. She actually won tickets to the show and she won the Dak Prescott signed helmet."
The hosts express gratitude to participants, sponsors, and the Dallas audience before signing off, inviting listeners to engage with them online for future content and insights.
Jason Moore [72:24]: "Thank you for listening to another edition of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Don't forget to visit us on the web at www.thefantasyfootballers.com and follow us on Twitter at theffballers."
High-Risk, High-Reward Players: The hosts provide in-depth analyses of several NFL players who offer significant upside but come with notable risks, aiding listeners in making informed draft decisions.
Interactive and Entertaining Format: Through humorous letters and active audience participation, the podcast maintains an engaging atmosphere, blending expert advice with entertainment.
Strategic Insights: Listeners gain valuable strategies on drafting, particularly concerning late-round picks and managing league participation to enhance their fantasy football experience.
This episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast delivers a blend of expert analysis, engaging humor, and interactive content, making it a valuable listen for both seasoned fantasy managers and newcomers alike.