Fantasy Footballers Podcast Episode Summary
Episode: Risk vs Reward, Love Letters, LIVE in Dallas
Release Date: July 17, 2018

Introduction: Live from Dallas, Texas

The Fantasy Footballers team—Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright—kick off this live episode from Draft.com Studios in Dallas, Texas. The hosts energetically welcome the hyped-up Dallas crowd, setting the stage for an engaging and interactive show. Andy expresses hope for an unprecedented mailbag drop, underscoring the episode's interactive nature.

Andy Holloway [00:24]: "Dallas. Welcome in to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast live in Dallas, Texas."

Segment 1: Heartfelt and Humorous Letters

One of the episode's highlights is the whimsical letter-reading segment. Andy receives letters addressed to each host, humorously penned by fantasy football "players" expressing their feelings and frustrations.

Letter to Jason Moore: From "Juju"

Andy reads a letter ostensibly from Juju, a fictional running back, expressing unrequited love and disappointment with Jason's fantasy management.

Andy Holloway [03:39]: "Dearest Jason, I've received all of your previous correspondence, and it's now quite clear your feelings for me... Please stop writing. Your unrequited love will only lead to embarrassment as my current draft position cannot sustain your expectations. Plus, it's really, really creepy."

Jason responds passionately, hinting at his lingering affection despite recognizing the letters' playful nature.

Jason Moore [05:08]: "I know I'm gonna get heat from this, but I don't care. I'm back on Lamar Miller. I think not. I think Lamar Miller is a huge value."

Letter to Mike Wright: From "Kareem"

Mike receives a letter from Kareem, another fictional player, critiquing the show's analysis and asserting his own fantasy value.

Mike Wright [07:56]: "First off, I appreciate you and your team believing in me this past year... you guys grief me for my fantasy dry spell in the middle of the season."

The exchange continues with light-hearted banter, showcasing the hosts' camaraderie and humor.

Segment 2: Risk vs Reward – Analyzing High-Stakes Players

The core of the episode delves into evaluating players who present significant risk but also substantial reward potential. Each host presents their candidates, discussing the factors that make these players both promising and precarious.

Mike Wright on Jerick McKinnon [13:24]

Mike introduces Jerick McKinnon as a high-risk, high-reward running back. He highlights McKinnon's inconsistent role and fluctuating performance metrics.

Mike Wright [13:23]: "Jerick McKinnon. High risk, high reward."

Risks:

• Limited volume in previous seasons.
• On a less favorable team compared to last year.
• Physical size concerns raising injury risks.

Rewards:

• Operating within a Kyle Shanahan system known for maximizing running back potential.
• Secured role with a significant pass-catching component.
• Recent contract improvements reflecting his value.

Mike rates the chance of Jerick working out at 70% despite the inherent risks.

Mike Wright [16:57]: "I am not ignoring that. There is certainly risk but the opportunity is there."

Jason Moore on Will Fuller [19:00]

Jason analyzes Houston Texans wide receiver Will Fuller, emphasizing his explosive potential tempered by injury history and limited target volume.

Jason Moore [19:00]: "Will Fuller has the trifecta of risk that I usually try to avoid: expensive draft capital player, low volume, and an injury risk."

Risks:

• Past injuries limiting game starts.
• Secondary role behind DeAndre Hopkins reducing target share.
• Competition from undrafted players like Matt Burrida.

Rewards:

• Exceptional speed making him a deep threat.
• Revived synergy with improved quarterback play.
• High touchdown potential if healthy and utilized effectively.

Jason assesses Will Fuller's success probability at 55%, acknowledging both his explosive capability and the concerns surrounding his durability.

Jason Moore [22:50]: "I would put it in the negative. I think it's a 45% chance that he succeeds."

Andy Holloway on Sony Michel [23:17]

Andy discusses rookie running back Sony Michel, balancing his impressive college performance against potential pitfalls in the NFL environment.

Andy Holloway [23:17]: "Sony Michel. The risks are with ball security, snaps, and inconsistent opportunity."

Risks:

• History of fumbling in college.
• Uncertain snap count under a possibly unpredictable coaching strategy.
• Competition for carries in a team with established backs.

Rewards:

• Similar explosive capability to Alvin Kamara.
• Talented offensive line that can create running opportunities.
• Potential to secure a significant role if he proves efficient and durable.

Andy estimates a 65% likelihood that the risks are manageable and Sony Michel delivers significant rewards.

Andy Holloway [26:18]: "So, yeah, that risk is high, but the reward can be Alvin Kamara type."

Mike Wright on Tyreek Hill [27:27]

Tyreek Hill is presented as a high-reward wide receiver with notable consistency yet facing new quarterback dynamics that may impact his performance.

Mike Wright [27:27]: "Tyreek Hill... has the equivalent of a 'Fatality'—one play can win your week."

Risks:

• Transition to a new quarterback, potentially disrupting chemistry.
• Reallocation of targets which could affect his output.
• Dependency on continued explosive plays for fantasy success.

Rewards:

• Explosive play ability capable of delivering massive fantasy points in single games.
• Maintained draft value despite positional changes.
• Demonstrated consistency and high efficiency in target-to-fantasy points conversion.

Mike downgrades Hill’s success probability to 44%, reflecting concerns over quarterback change and stability.

Mike Wright [30:34]: "Tyreek Hill pegged at 44% that he gives you a positive return."

Jason Moore on Deonta Foreman [31:19]

Jason advocates for Deonta Foreman, emphasizing his talent and potential resurgence despite an Achilles injury.

Jason Moore [31:19]: "Deonta Foreman is a really talented player. This is my firm 100% belief."

Risks:

• Achilles injury impacting performance and availability.
• Uncertain recovery timeline potentially delaying his debut.
• Team dynamics and offensive line effectiveness.

Rewards:

• Exceptional college performance and proven NFL talent.
• Potential for a breakout season if fully healthy.
• High upside as a versatile back capable of contributing significantly in both rushing and receiving.

Jason acknowledges the injury risk but remains optimistic about Foreman’s return, rating his potential favorably due to the 73% chance of a strong comeback.

Jason Moore [36:16]: "If Deonta Foreman comes back healthy, he has the talent to be a star."

Additional Players Discussed

• Derrick Henry: Polarizing due to high demand and inconsistent snap usage.
• Mark Ingram: Potentially rich pick despite a four-game suspension, emphasizing second-half performance.
• Robbie Anderson: Balances risk of possible suspension with high upside in a dynamic Jets offense.

Segment 3: Live Mailbag – Interactive Listener Questions

The show transitions to a lively mailbag segment, featuring audience participation facilitated by Brad Evans. Listeners pose questions ranging from rookie wide receiver impact to fantasy drafting strategies.

Question 1: Rookie Wide Receivers Impact

A listener from Waco asks which rookie wide receiver, aside from DJ Moore, is poised to make the biggest impact this season.

Jason Moore [57:04]: "Michael Gallup has the easiest path towards opportunity... His target share is up for grabs."

Responses:

• Jason Moore: Advocates for Michael Gallup, citing his clear path to becoming the primary receiver.
• Brad Evans: Suggests James Washington, highlighting his role with the Pittsburgh Steelers' offense and pairing with Drew Brees.

Question 2: Draft Strategy for a Punt Wide Receiver Grammy

A listener grapples with selecting a late-round wide receiver, offering options like Cam Meredith, Jordan Matthews, and others.

Brad Evans [65:04]: "Cameron Meredith is finally healthy and has a legitimate shot with favorable coverage."

Responses:

• Mike Wright: Recommends Dante Pettis for his clear role in San Francisco’s offense.
• Jason Moore: Emphasizes assessing health and potential snap count before committing.

Question 3: Justifying a First-Round Pick for Kareem Hunt

A listener questions the rationale behind drafting Kareem Hunt in the first round, given his inconsistent performance and potential competition from Spencer Ware.

Jason Moore [61:24]: "He was the running back three last year... average draft position says he's going to be drafted in the first round." Mike Wright [63:01]: "Kareem Hunt will get passing downs and goal-line opportunities, making him more valuable."

Responses:

• Jason Moore: Points out that top-performing running backs typically get first-round attention, regardless of occasional setbacks.
• Mike Wright: Highlights Hunt’s dual-threat capability in rushing and receiving, mitigating some of his previous performance concerns.

Conclusion: Winner Announcements and Signing Off

The episode wraps up with exciting prize giveaways, including a Dak Prescott-signed Cowboys helmet sponsored by Pristine Auction. Winner Asia from the audience is announced, further energizing the live crowd.

Andy Holloway [71:35]: "Asia was a very special winner. She actually won tickets to the show and she won the Dak Prescott signed helmet."

The hosts express gratitude to participants, sponsors, and the Dallas audience before signing off, inviting listeners to engage with them online for future content and insights.

Jason Moore [72:24]: "Thank you for listening to another edition of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Don't forget to visit us on the web at www.thefantasyfootballers.com and follow us on Twitter at theffballers."

Key Takeaways:

• High-Risk, High-Reward Players: The hosts provide in-depth analyses of several NFL players who offer significant upside but come with notable risks, aiding listeners in making informed draft decisions.

• Interactive and Entertaining Format: Through humorous letters and active audience participation, the podcast maintains an engaging atmosphere, blending expert advice with entertainment.

• Strategic Insights: Listeners gain valuable strategies on drafting, particularly concerning late-round picks and managing league participation to enhance their fantasy football experience.

This episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast delivers a blend of expert analysis, engaging humor, and interactive content, making it a valuable listen for both seasoned fantasy managers and newcomers alike.