Shocking Stats + Fantasy Valentines - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/13

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Title: Shocking Stats + Fantasy Valentines
Episode: Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/13
Release Date: February 13, 2025

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1. Valentine's Day Chats

[02:03] Andy Holloway kicks off the episode by welcoming listeners and prompting the hosts about their Valentine's Day plans.

• Mike Wright shares his plans to fly to Kentucky with his spouse for bourbon tours, highlighting Kentucky as the "bourbon capital of the world."
  “I’m going to do some bourbon tours. Yeah. So whiskey see at the distilleries on Bell.” [02:49]

• The hosts engage in a light-hearted conversation about Kentucky's geography, revealing Mike's misconception about its location.
  “I found out that Kentucky is significantly further east than I thought.” [03:20]

• Jason Moore jokes about traveling to Maine to maximize Valentine's Day miles traveled.
  “I’m going to go to Maine. So I can be as far east as possible.” [05:31]

2. Early Fantasy Football Crushes

The hosts discuss their early-season fantasy football favorites, offering insights into promising players for the 2025 season.

a. DJ Moore

[07:26] Mike Wright highlights DJ Moore as a high-potential wide receiver, emphasizing Moore's increased receptions and the impact of offensive changes.
“DJ Moore should be the central first read target I project in this offense. You know if you get the ball in his hands in the right situations, lead him, get him in space.” [07:55]

[12:36] Andy Holloway concurs, noting DJ Moore's challenging previous season but recognizing his talent and potential resurgence.
“DJ Moore is a pretty awesome player. A talented guy where if you get the ball in his hands in the right situations, lead him, get him in space.” [12:36]

b. Travion Henderson

[08:17] Jason Moore expresses excitement about rookie running back Travion Henderson from Ohio State, citing his explosiveness and high-yardage gains.
“He had a 10 yard, 10 plus yard gain on 24% of his attempts. That's number one in the class even ahead of the almighty Ashton Genty.” [10:40]

[11:46] Mike Wright shares his admiration for Henderson's explosiveness, comparing him to Jameer Gibbs and emphasizing his upside potential.
“He had those plays that were like whoa that no one's catching him. So yeah, he's very exciting.” [10:40]

c. Jameson Williams

[12:55] Andy Holloway introduces Jameson Williams as a high-upside wide receiver despite his inconsistency and injury history.
“Jameson Williams is a player that when the ball is in his hands, there is no question or doubt that he has just next level NFL talent.” [12:55]

[15:23] Jason Moore discusses Williams' potential for regression due to his touchdown-heavy fantasy points, urging cautious optimism.
“Jameson Williams is the Jalen Waddle, the Tyreek Hill. He will score on end arounds the way Jaden Reed does or Tyreek Hill has.” [13:19]

3. News and Notes

Updates on various NFL teams and players that impact fantasy football decisions.

a. Kellen Moore’s Coaching Journey

[15:34] Mike Wright covers Kellen Moore's tumultuous coaching career, moving from Dallas to Philadelphia and now becoming the head coach of the New Orleans Saints.
“Kellen Moore got a couple of really good years... and now he’s a head coach.” [15:39]

[17:13] Andy Holloway discusses the implications of Moore’s appointment and the shift in responsibilities within the Saints’ coaching staff.
“Brandon Staley is going to take over the defense, I believe, in New Orleans, so it will look different there.” [17:13]

b. Travis Kelsey’s Future

[18:53] The hosts debate whether Travis Kelsey will retire following his recent Super Bowl performance and his statements about needing to be a better leader.
“I don’t think he wants to go out like that. I expect him to play.” [20:11]

[19:05] Jason Moore interprets Kelsey’s emotions post-Super Bowl loss, suggesting he’s contemplating retirement.
“He just lost the Super Bowl... he wasn’t ready.” [19:05]

c. Jordan Addison’s DUI Case

[21:51] Andy Holloway briefly mentions Jordan Addison filing for a continuation of his DUI case scheduled for March 12th, noting Addison's strong performance despite legal issues.
“Jordan Addison filed for a continuation of his DUI case.” [21:51]

d. Tyler Lockett’s Contract Situation

[22:32] The discussion shifts to Tyler Lockett’s high cap hit and his uncertain future with the Seahawks, debating whether the team might release him to manage finances better.
“If I was the general manager, I would just cut ties and move my franchise forward.” [22:56]

4. Shocking Stats

A deep dive into surprising statistics from the 2024 NFL season that impact fantasy football strategies.

a. Green Bay Packers' Target Distribution

[27:07] The Packers are highlighted as the only NFL team without a single player exceeding a 19% target share, raising concerns about their offensive strategy.
“The Packers are the only team in the NFL without a single player above 19% of the target share.” [27:11]

[39:12] The hosts critique Head Coach Josh Jones for his comments on the Packers' wide receivers’ potential without having a proven number one target.
“He needs a guy that's proven to be a number one.” [39:41]

b. James Cook’s Touchdown-Heavy Fantasy Points

[33:46] Andy Holloway points out that James Cook generated 43% of his fantasy points through touchdowns, signaling potential regression in the following season.
“James Cook had 16 rushing touchdowns. 43% of his fantasy points came via touchdown.” [35:01]

[35:56] Jason Moore and Mike Wright agree that Cook’s high touchdown rate is unsustainable and likely to decrease, impacting his fantasy value.
“There’s going to be significant regression there.” [35:56]

c. Baker Mayfield’s Fantasy Top Five Finishes

[49:10] Andy Holloway reveals that Baker Mayfield achieved eight finishes inside the top five among quarterbacks, tying his personal best and surpassing peers like Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.
“Baker Mayfield’s eight finishes inside the top five were the most among all quarterbacks.” [49:10]

[50:35] Hosts debate the sustainability of Mayfield’s performance, with Mike Wright asserting that Mayfield is unlikely to maintain this level of production.
“I think never again.” [50:55]

[55:32] Jason Moore contrasts Baker Mayfield with Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, suggesting that Mayfield may not continue to achieve top five finishes.
“Jason Moore agrees that Mayfield is unlikely to return to the top five."* [55:39]

d. Cincinnati Bengals' Offensive Play Leadership

[56:29] Andy Holloway discusses the Bengals leading or tying on 69% of their offensive plays in 2024 but failing to secure a playoff spot, underscoring inefficiencies in their game management.
“The Bengals were leading or tied on 69% of their offensive plays in 2024.” [56:29]

[59:54] The hosts critique the Bengals’ head coach Zach Taylor for lacking a strong defensive strategy, leading to defensive shortcomings despite a strong offense.
“The defense was the issue for this team.” [59:54]

5. Conclusion

[63:30] Andy Holloway wraps up the episode by reminding listeners about the Ultimate Draft Kit and membership options, encouraging engagement with additional resources and community features.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Mike Wright [07:55]: “DJ Moore should be the central first read target I project in this offense. You know if you get the ball in his hands in the right situations, lead him, get him in space.”

• Jason Moore [10:40]: “He had a 10 yard, 10 plus yard gain on 24% of his attempts. That's number one in the class even ahead of the almighty Ashton Genty.”

• Andy Holloway [12:55]: “Jameson Williams is a player that when the ball is in his hands, there is no question or doubt that he has just next level NFL talent.”

• Jason Moore [15:39]: “Kellen Moore got a couple of really good years... and now he’s a head coach.”

• Mike Wright [18:53]: “I don’t think he wants to go out like that. I expect him to play.”

• Andy Holloway [27:11]: “The Packers are the only team in the NFL without a single player above 19% of the target share.”

• Andy Holloway [35:01]: “James Cook had 16 rushing touchdowns. 43% of his fantasy points came via touchdown.”

• Andy Holloway [49:10]: “Baker Mayfield’s eight finishes inside the top five were the most among all quarterbacks.”

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This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the episode, highlighting key discussions, insights, and notable quotes to provide listeners and non-listeners alike with a clear understanding of the topics covered.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

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[Mike Wright]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike. Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in the Fantasy Footballers. Mike the fantasy hitman Jason Moore, I'm Andy Holloway. Welcome in for Thursday, February 13th. Any big Valentine's Day plans, gentlemen? Do you do the Valentine's Day?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I do have big Valentine's Day plans. I'm flying to Kentucky.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, that's right.

[Mike Wright]

That's right.

[Andy Holloway]

Is that a common Valentine's Day trip?

[Mike Wright]

This is the first time in my life I will be in Kentucky. Probably the last time I will be.

[Andy Holloway]

What are some facts you know about Kentucky?

[Mike Wright]

Well, bourbon capital of the world. So I'm going to do some bourbon tours. Yeah. So whiskey see at the distilleries on Bell.

[Andy Holloway]

And this is just you by yourself?

[Mike Wright]

No, me and the missus.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Going to go taste some whiskey.

[Andy Holloway]

Any other Kentucky, Kentucky facts you've got for us?

[Jason Moore]

Derbys.

[Mike Wright]

There's a derby. They've got great fried chicken. That's about it. Tapped out.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike, anything I know about Kentucky?

[Mike Wright]

I did find out.

[Andy Holloway]

No, not about Kentucky.

[Mike Wright]

Speaking of Kentucky, and this will sound really dumb to those of you in the Midwest or the east coast or that are educated, but I found out that Kentucky is significantly further east than I thought.

[Andy Holloway]

That happens to us.

[Jason Moore]

Where did you think it was?

[Mike Wright]

I thought it was Kansas, I think. You know, like, I mean.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, Kansas, Kentucky.

[Andy Holloway]

There's no way we don't. A lot of us here don't get that wrong.

[Mike Wright]

Oh. If you're a west coaster like us, I'm informing you right now that Kentucky's not actually dead center.

[Andy Holloway]

The puzzle pieces could go wherever.

[Mike Wright]

Right. The center. 80%. Just put them in a hopper and it doesn't matter.

[Jason Moore]

Just to put you on the spot here. West Virginia. Do you know where that is?

[Mike Wright]

I do. West Virginia is basically south of Virginia, near the East Coast.

[Jason Moore]

Just making sure. You knew it was over.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, well, he just. He just found out. Georgia.

[Mike Wright]

That's by Oregon. Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Found out it had a. Georgia had a coast recently.

[Mike Wright]

No, it doesn't. Still don't believe you.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, okay. I was like, what.

[Mike Wright]

What are we not a coastal state?

[Andy Holloway]

No, I was just asking about Valentine's Day plans. Mike, I know your. Your son and Kevin Durant won't be hanging out anytime soon.

[Jason Moore]

No, no, they. They were. They were getting into it, which is just a.

[Andy Holloway]

Was quite the surprise. You were at the Sun's game, and then you. I find out your son. Well, one, he goes to the Suns game and roots for the other team. He.

[Jason Moore]

He was rooting.

[Andy Holloway]

Really?

[Jason Moore]

For John Morant. You know what? That's fine. Yeah, that's fine.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Okay.

[Jason Moore]

That's fine. Were you at the game rooting for the Suns? No, because they stink.

[Mike Wright]

That's true.

[Andy Holloway]

But then he started mocking.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

He started.

[Jason Moore]

Well, he was trying to pump up people from the Grizzlies.

[Andy Holloway]

They didn't need it.

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

They were going to win no matter what.

[Jason Moore]

For Valentine's Day. No, I do not have anything planned.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, me neither. Me neither. Does that make me a bad no? Bad.

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

We.

[Jason Moore]

We have. Well, I don't know what your agreement is, but the agreement in the right household is don't worry about Valentine's Day.

[Andy Holloway]

That's about where we are, too. But if I tell people that, I do get a little embarrassed.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. But now if you're like, well, Jason's bringing his spouse to Kentucky.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we're going to Tennessee. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to go. I'm going to go to Maine.

[Mike Wright]

Whoa.

[Jason Moore]

So I can be as far east as possible.

[Andy Holloway]

Miles traveled equals more love.

[Jason Moore]

That's right. What do you think of that, Jay?

[Mike Wright]

I've been outdone.

[Andy Holloway]

We have shocking stats on the show today. It should be fun. We've picked out, I think, five or six kind of interesting nuggets from the season.

[Jason Moore]

Go. Hold on. This is for Kyle because. Shoot. I asked you if you knew where West Virginia was. I was just doing a bit to make sure you knew it was on the east despite it being called West Virginia, and I guess I tuned out because you said it was.

[Mike Wright]

I said it was a little bit south. It was a little bit north.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, it.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, obviously it's on the western side. Yes, it's north, but it's on the.

[Jason Moore]

It's really just west. And in fact, Virginia goes all the way underneath West Virginia, so it can't be south.

[Mike Wright]

Well, right. The opposite of what I said.

[Andy Holloway]

There must have been people listening going, oh, my gosh.

[Jason Moore]

Kyle had to make sure.

[Andy Holloway]

We need to. If we do add a couple of states here soon, do we think we can get the Dakotas to combine and, like, the Virginias to combine and maybe even the Carolinas? Like, if we. If we want to keep around 50, keep it at 50, because I think 50 is a good number. It is the 53 United States. I mean, that doesn't work.

[Mike Wright]

No. The songs won't be the same. And if you can't find some to combine, we will find some to get rid of. You know what I mean?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that's true.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know how bad we need Wyoming, you know? I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know either.

[Andy Holloway]

What is Wyoming? The capital. We got to move on. All right, we got a quick question of the day before we get into some of those stats. It's a simple one. Do you have an early fantasy football crush? Oh, because of. Because of Valentine's day for the 2025 season? Yes.

[Mike Wright]

I just realized that together, I'll kick us off here with mine. I find myself higher than consensus on both the dynasty side and kind of the super early redraft ranking side on DJ Moore. He's someone that, when I see where he's going, I'm excited to take the shot on him. He's only 27 years old right now. He's coming off a season where this might surprise you. He caught the most passes of his career this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Really?

[Mike Wright]

He did? Yeah. 98. Now that his previous high was the year prior at 96. Obviously significantly fewer yards. Caleb Williams was not the rookie sensation that you know, Bears fans and management had had hoped but he did show enough like I believe that Caleb Williams will figure it out. And there's also the Ben Johnson arrival. That's a big deal.

[Jason Moore]

That's the really exciting part.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah that is you know I think that Ben Johnson who was the bell of the ball for off hires this off season and even the last two off seasons he proved with the Lions as their offensive coordinator with a average to above average quarterback bringing out MVP type of offensive numbers from Jared Goff he I think he can get the most out of Caleb Williams and specifically if you look at that slot roll that is up for grabs that Almond Ross St. Brown role you're going to have Odunze on the outside. I don't think Keenan Allen's going to be back with this team. So DJ Moore should be the central first read target I project in this offense. You know if you look at the last two years only five wide receivers have more receptions. One of them is Amon Ross St. Brown. Only seven wide receivers have more yards. One of them is Amon Ross St. Brown. So I that role, while I don't want to take anything away from Amon Ra he is part of the role is being awesome. Yes. I just think DJ Moore is also a pretty awesome player. A talented guy where if you get the ball in his hands in the right situations, lead him, get him in space. We know he can do amazing things. Kind of like you know what we've hoped and wanted for Terry McClure and forever and we finally got there.

[Jason Moore]

I'll go next. Here it is rookie season. I'm going to go with Travion Henderson running back. He's out of Ohio State. No, I don't know where he is going to be drafted. I don't know when he will be drafted in the NFL draft. I would project pretty high here at least a day two pick but he is so exciting. We have a lot of really good rookie running backs that are going into the league here and Henderson is just besides Genty Henderson is the one that is the most exciting to me that if we get him with a really creative offense that it like he is really going to be successful. He is so explosive. He had a 10 yard 10 plus yard gain on 24% of his attempts. That's number one in the class even ahead of the almighty Ashton Genty. So I'm really excited. Jason got to talk about him on the Dynasty pod here. I didn't get to do it because it was last week. So I'm here proclaiming my love like he's right now he's my number two rookie prospect as until we get more information.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, Henderson's not my number two running back in, in this upcoming draft class yet. That could change based on the NFL.

[Jason Moore]

But it's all are welcome to join me.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah but the thing that I do love about Henderson is he has extreme explosiveness. His speed is there and so if you're just shooting for upside, you know he was like when I watched him there were a lot of flashes of Jameer Gibbs. He's not as good as Jameer Gibbs by any means but he had those plays that were like whoa that no one's catching him. So yeah, he's, he's very exciting.

[Jason Moore]

I think he has like, I mean he's a, he's a little bit smaller so that will be the thing to watch. Not that that's the end as we've seen here. You know, like Gibbs, Bucky, there's guys who are a little bit smaller and it's working but he just to me he has everything except for an extreme amount of power which his body archetype is not one that's going to have a bunch of power but contact balance, he's got it vision, he's got it burst top end speed. So I am so pumped for Henderson.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think he's my running back four right now I don't have him in front but for those of you that are new, maybe you haven't been listening to the Dynasty show or you're not familiar with this year's rookie class yet. All four are better than like they score better in you know, all my scouting than the number one running back of last year. This is a much better running back draft class and it's really flip flop.

[Jason Moore]

Really. You like these guys more than Brooks?

[Mike Wright]

Yes, more than, more than Brooks and more than Benson from last year. Yeah, I think it's a significantly better running back draft class and then the flip side is the wide receiver draft class. I'm not excited yet.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I was shocked that DJ Moore was on. Like I hadn't seen your name. I had seen he put Ashton Gentian but DJ Moore is like he's been a player difficult for people to get excited about.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean I get it. It's. It's hard to get excited about a player who just had what appears to be a really down year with a quarterback that you're now very unsure. You know, going into last year you were unsure, but excited. Going into this year you're really unsure, but you're scared.

[Andy Holloway]

I would say excited and scared would be a good combination of words for the name that I, that I have. Jameson Williams.

[Mike Wright]

I'm so scared.

[Andy Holloway]

Jameson Williams is. He's a player that when the ball is in his hands, there is no question or doubt that he has just next level NFL talent. He's had problems being consistent, being healthy.

[Mike Wright]

Being featured, not betting on sports. You know, that's just, you know, just the normal problems.

[Andy Holloway]

So there have been some obstacles, there's.

[Jason Moore]

Been some bumps in the road.

[Andy Holloway]

There's been some obstacles, but last year.

[Jason Moore]

Over a thousand, some parlays in the.

[Andy Holloway]

Road, over a thousand yards receiving. So explosive on his 58 receptions. I do think there's the opportunity for him to become more and more valuable for fantasy football. He still finished as the wide receiver 18, missed two games due to that suspension you talked about. And very young, high draft capital, explosive. Kind of fits the mold of the type of player that makes a bigger fantasy impact even than what Amon Ra does. Amon Ra kind of has managed to be the receiver, the slot receiver, the PPR receiver that still produces for fantasy, still gets into the end zone, but not necessarily the prototype, right? The Jamar Chase, the Jefferson A Metcalf, those type of guys. Jameson Williams is the Jalen Waddle, the Tyree Kill. He will score on end arounds the way Jaden Reed does or Tyree Kill has. So I think, I think I'm very excited about Jameson Williams moving into the future because I could see a season where you go from 58 and 1000 to, you know, maybe it's 75 and 1400. I don't think that that's a. With 10 touchdowns, like he could score 10 touchdowns. So to me that's a player I am cautiously optimistic.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean the arrow is pointing up. It took a while because he had that large suspension early in his career than the smaller suspension. He had injuries and this was such a good team. They didn't need Jameson Williams. Now he's like an active core part I think going into this off season and next year he, he'll be better this coming season than he was this last year. And like you said, he finishes the wide receiver 18. The interesting thing to me is where he's going to be drafted come August right now on early best ball ADP on underdog. He's the wide receiver 23. So that seems like A pretty good value.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm interested in that.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's talk some news.

[Mike Wright]

News and notes from around the league.

[Andy Holloway]

While we know it to be certain. Now, Kellen Moore, the head coach of the New Orleans Saints.

[Jason Moore]

What a wild ride for Kellen. For Kellen Moore to. I mean, the fantasy nerds we were so excited for. Kellen Moore got a couple of really good years or like, hey, this. He could be another up and coming offensive mind here in the NFL. And then Dallas is like, nah, we'll see you later. He goes to the Chargers, yeah, it's not that great. And then immediately gets picked up by Philadelphia, seemingly helps resurrect their offense from the ashes that it was a couple years ago. And now he's a head coach. Like I'm saying, like, he was hot. And then it was, oh, Kellen Moore is. It's going to fade into the, into the mist. And now he's.

[Mike Wright]

I think the, the coaching carousel season worked out really well for him in the sense that everybody was scooped up first. This was the last remaining job. He goes to the super bowl and wins. And I do think it's a good hire. I've been excited about Kilmo. I think he's a very competent offensive mind in the, in the NFL. I mean, you've had him.

[Andy Holloway]

Sorry, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

You've had him lead really good offenses for now. Three different franchises essentially in three years in a row. So he'll be on his fourth franchise in four years. Fourth different quarterback. But he's had success everywhere. It hasn't necessarily been overwhelming, like, oh, they were top five offense. But he hasn't been bad anywhere.

[Andy Holloway]

It's a big transition for him. And we saw this. Literally the head coach they could have hired that they wanted to hire. It's been reported ahead of Kellen Moore, who turned it down, was Cliff Kingsbury. Cliff Kingsbury, great offensive mind, turned it around with Jaden Daniels in Washington. And yet maybe the head coaching job wasn't for him being focused on the offense and not leading a locker room. So that'll be new. Brandon Staley is going to take over the defense, I believe, in New Orleans, so it will look different there.

[Mike Wright]

And wait, so Brandon Staley. Brandon Staley was the head coach when he was the offensive coordinator. Right, right. And so now. Have we ever seen that?

[Jason Moore]

I don't know. Now that you're mentioning.

[Mike Wright]

I didn't realize until this.

[Andy Holloway]

Were those aligned?

[Mike Wright]

I think those were aligned, yeah. Right. Because. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Wow. Yeah. So they flipped jobs.

[Mike Wright]

So you used to work for I'm the captain now. I don't. Kyle, you got to see if this has ever happened before, at least in such quick succession. It's not like, oh, a decade later, I bring someone back that I used to. Years. This is. Yeah. The year after next, you will work for me and I will be that coach. How funny.

[Andy Holloway]

That's wild. Bobby Slowik, who. He went from the hotness to the not ness.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Is now the senior passing game coordinator for the Dolphins, who we will talk about on today's show in the shocking stats.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man.

[Andy Holloway]

And we won't talk about them positively.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Do you believe that when it is, say, second and 11, as the passing game coordinator, he will recommend not passing. Will he say, like, we should run? Because that's sure. What he did as an offensive coordinator.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we hope not. We hope not. Travis Kelsey says he's going to take some time to decide whether he'll return to the Chiefs. You guys have a early gut guess for what's going to happen.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know if I have a full early gut, but if you actually listen to the quote, I mean, it's Kelsey on his podcast talking to his brother, and he just lost the super bowl. And it wasn't a. Like, they got him thoroughly embarrassed. And I think he's just. I mean, he's still really feeling the emotions of the loss. So he had what was like a week before the super bowl. He was talking about how he has so much football left in him. So I think that it is a. He's just dealing with the weight of that massive loss. And I don't know that he's actually ready to retire. But, like, when you're listening to him do this quote, it sure sounds like he's ready.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I mean, I don't think he wants to go out like that. I mean, not just losing the Super Bowl. I think he could go out on a season where they don't get to the super bowl and whatever. But it was a really bad game for him. I mean, there's been so many. You know, if you're on Twitter, you see all these clips. There's. There's a handful of them. Some are not fair to him, but there are some that's like, wow, he, you know, he missed on this. He whiffed on that. He. He looks slower.

[Andy Holloway]

A missing whiff.

[Mike Wright]

A missing whiff. But on his. On that podcast, he talks about how it was a really bad game for him that, you know, not just on his play, but on the sidelines, like, motivating lifting people.

[Jason Moore]

He said I needed to be a better leader.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And so it's like, I don't think that is what he wants his final game of his career to be. I expect him to play. I do expect him to continue naturally, to get worse.

[Andy Holloway]

I think I'll retire.

[Mike Wright]

That's your call.

[Andy Holloway]

It's the first time I thought that right now. I think I'll retire. Your odds of getting to the Super Bowl, I know you're the Chiefs, but they're not high. So if you want to go out in a Super Bowl, I mean, I know you didn't win it, but if your skills are declining, if you don't have the. If you don't have the fire.

[Mike Wright]

I believe the odds of getting to the Super bowl are 85% in the Patrick Mahomes era.

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe it's. Maybe, maybe not anymore.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And maybe we're gonna enter the burrow zone.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, if anyone is set up.

[Mike Wright]

For a burrow zone. What?

[Jason Moore]

You hijacked my point for that. Look, if you're gonna say. If you're gonna interrupt with a great joke, I'm for it every single time. That was a bad joke.

[Mike Wright]

I will concur and I will agree.

[Jason Moore]

I need an apology, but I won't.

[Mike Wright]

Apologize because I assume you were saying something that wasn't important. So, you know, it's like, we're even.

[Jason Moore]

That's fair. Talking about Travis Kelsey is set up. Most of these guys, I'm sure, have absolutely no idea that, like, football has been your life. And now and football's gone. What do you possibly do? Travis Kelsey has some stuff lined up.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah. I mean, he'll have whatever he wants.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Jordan Addison filed for a continuation of his DUI case. Pretrial hearing March 12th. Don't forget Addison. Big Year. Really got it going, but still has to deal with this DUI case. Mike McDonald. Seahawks are working through whether Lockett will be on the roster in 2025. I know you guys had talked about him leaving. I had assumed that he would restructure. I don't think he's at 33 years old, a prime candidate for being picked up and being having a role somewhere else. We'll see what happens.

[Mike Wright]

I think it's up to.

[Andy Holloway]

His cap hit is way too high.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. It's up to the Seahawks as to whether they want to pay for more of Tyler Lockett's services, because if they do, they'll have to restructure, kick the money out a little further. But I'm not sure if it Looks.

[Andy Holloway]

Like that's what they're figuring out when they think through whether both sides can agree to something.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. When they evaluate the play, I don't know that it's in their best interest. I mean, right now he's a $30.9 million cap hit and only 13 million in dead cap. That's still a pretty big dead cap number. But I feel like if I was.

[Andy Holloway]

The general manager, 600 yard receiver.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I would just cut ties and move my franchise forward.

[Jason Moore]

Do you guys see baby coops talking about Ken Bone Walker?

[Mike Wright]

No, but that's. I know what that. I know what that does to you.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean it's. We're living in the permanent state of canine hype.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, we only get hype that's doing well. He's a hype. He's a hype machine.

[Jason Moore]

It's exciting.

[Andy Holloway]

The bone zone.

[Jason Moore]

And this is, it's that time of the year. I mean, that's all we are going to be doing now is breaking down what coaches are saying about their players. And I am very excited.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, yeah, the comments were just alluding to throwing the ball to the, to the running back position.

[Jason Moore]

There was that.

[Andy Holloway]

Which he is one of them.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

So.

[Jason Moore]

But it wasn't like they were. He was specifically talking about Ken Walker. This wasn't, you know, we're going to get Ken going. We're going to get Charbs going. It was Ken Walker propaganda and I accepted it.

[Andy Holloway]

Didn't we? I mean, we just got that from Grub.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And I think Grubb told the truth. I mean, look how much Ken Walker.

[Mike Wright]

Actually caught the ball this year on the Truth episode. We did see that when Kenneth Walker was playing. He was very good. He was. He was obviously dealt with injuries. That's. That's a huge issue for Kenneth Walker who's not been able to stay healthy. But he was good for fantasy.

[Andy Holloway]

A reminder. The Ultimate Draft Kit pre order available right now@ultimate draftkit.com you get instant access to the Dynasty Pass all of our rookie rankings and a whole lot more available for the dynasty players. Ultimate DraftKit.com if you order by March 1, you can enter. You'll be automatically entered to win a listener league spot and get some other sweet pre order perks again by March 1st. Ultimate Draft Kit.com we'll take a break and we'll jump into some shocking stats from 2024.

[Mike Wright]

This episode is brought to you by USAA Insurance. When it comes to insurance, USAA is the perfect first round pick. That's because Bundling auto with property insurance saves you money and USAA is your go to for great rates and insurance options. Visit USAA.com bundle to see what you can save. Bundle savings are off. Total premium not available in all states or in all situations. To qualify, auto policy must be active prior to property policy issue. Subject to change restrictions apply. Membership eligibility and product restrictions apply and are subject to change. USAA means United Services Automobile association and its affiliates, San Antonio, Texas.

[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

How'd you do that? I'm not even mad. That's amazing.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a pretty good graphic right there.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

For those watching.

[Mike Wright]

The first time that I saw that, I really stayed quiet.

[Andy Holloway]

Except for the part where it like went.

[Jason Moore]

There was like a real long.

[Andy Holloway]

It did go to black. It went to black.

[Jason Moore]

Hard fade there.

[Andy Holloway]

Little white.

[Jason Moore]

A wipe.

[Andy Holloway]

Hard cut to black.

[Mike Wright]

Well, won't be fixing that in post.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I forget Al. Al's always like, please just don't say anything.

[Mike Wright]

Just don't mention it.

[Andy Holloway]

Don't talk about it.

[Mike Wright]

We don't have to show our warts. Yes, we do.

[Andy Holloway]

Do we? All right, shocking stats from 2024. We'll start here. We'll call it Miami Vice or Miami's Vice. The Dolphins. Listen to this. 31st in the NFL with 45 total plays of 20 plus yards. That is 31 fewer explosive plays compared to last year. In fact, when you think of that team, you always thought about Explosive plays. Tyreek Hill had 19 targets of 20 plus air yards that ended up with five receptions and one touchdown. Which means that these players had more 20 plus air yard receptions than Tyreek.

[Jason Moore]

This is unacceptable.

[Andy Holloway]

A 32 year old Keenan Allen.

[Mike Wright]

Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

A 33 year old Adam Thielen.

[Mike Wright]

I still got it.

[Andy Holloway]

A Jalen Tolbert and Andre Yoshi Voss. A two. Two out. Well. And a case on booty. Yeah. So.

[Mike Wright]

So the question is, are they a.

[Jason Moore]

By low offense unacceptable or the beginning.

[Andy Holloway]

Of a boring offense?

[Mike Wright]

Right. And you know, it's.

[Jason Moore]

They saw what the Chiefs did and they're like, we got to get in on that.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. It's back to back Super Bowls by just dinking and dunking. You know, most of the time recency bias wins. And you say whatever happened last year is what's going to happen next year. Just mentally, I think in order to have that take, there has to be additional reason. And here it seems like there is one. Is the, you know, the end of Tyree kills playing career. He is clearly closer to that than ever. It looked like, you know, he slowed down a bit. Certainly the stats bear that out considering he didn't miss any games and had about half the yards of the season prior. But the other is the change of the offensive mindset with tua, where he gets the ball out way too quickly. I mean, it's just like, you know, the ball is snapped and it's out. And I guess it works, especially works against bad teams. But I don't know how much of that is to protect from the concussion, protect from the poor offensive line play. Maybe if the offensive line was more trustworthy, they'd give him time in the pocket to air things out. Right now though, it's like Tyree Kill is going to be older and you're still going to. You're going to forever worry about the concussion issues. So I think it's more of the same this next year.

[Andy Holloway]

There is a difference between what works and what we want as fantasy players. We clearly have a Kansas City Chiefs football team that has distinguished between the two. We don't get what we want in Kansas City very often, but it has worked for them.

[Mike Wright]

65% of Tua's attempts were fewer than 10 yards.

[Andy Holloway]

To me it seems like a bit of a, an experiment by a franchise saying, hey, we'd rather have this version of the offense. But a competent TUA who's on the field and healthy and not getting hit all the time. Then a more explosive offense which might fit Mike McDaniel's offense better but would require a different quarterback because they committed money to TUA and to a can execute an offense whether it's, you know, he could execute the deep pass offense too. But it seemed like they made a cognizant decision and so do we get what we want? It sounds like you're saying no, I.

[Mike Wright]

Believe we will not get what we desire with our hearts which is massive explosivo offense. This is also a team that was second place in the division and Miami splits when they play good teams versus bad teams are wild. You know, they're 3 and 14 versus teams with winning records in their three years with him as head coach, he's.

[Andy Holloway]

Got to be on the hot seat.

[Mike Wright]

He'll definitely be on the hot seat this year. I mean he's been forgiven a lot because of the two injuries. But that being said, the franchise, the general manager, you know, it seems like they don't want to go and sign a really good backup quarterback because you know, they want to not just protect to a physically in the game but like mentally, you know, this is to his franchise. We're not going to go out. We don't need a prolific backup. Someone that could come in and compete for the job.

[Andy Holloway]

But that's the role beyond stupid.

[Mike Wright]

So dumb.

[Andy Holloway]

And I think it will. It has to change after this past year's experience. Right?

[Mike Wright]

I don't think it will change. I certainly agree that. I mean if I was the general manager that would be one of the number one things I'd be looking at is who's a backup quarterback that can come in here and get us to the playoffs. Because that's my job as a general manager is to win football games should another injury happen which if another one happens.

[Andy Holloway]

Mariota maybe somebody like that.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean, I mean they're not.

[Andy Holloway]

A lot of them. I mean no, it's easy to criticize but I mean it's hard to find.

[Mike Wright]

It's Flacco.

[Andy Holloway]

Flacco. You're Sam.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know.

[Andy Holloway]

Andy Dalton, you know those guys are few and far between.

[Jason Moore]

I mean Flacco could do the check down offense.

[Andy Holloway]

Tua is under contract until 2029.

[Jason Moore]

What?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

It's that long?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Oh but I think two is a really great player is just philosophically we saw a complete changeover in that offense which look, if you believe that about the offense then maybe you have your question marks around. You know, can Jaylen Waddle be a prolific fantasy player or not?

[Jason Moore]

The nice thing gonna have to do.

[Andy Holloway]

A lot with short Area targets.

[Jason Moore]

I think the nice thing will be adp. You know all we have to quote right now is best ball ADP. But like Tyreek is at wide receiver 12 going around pick number 22 and then let me scroll, let me find Jalen Waddle. Where you at bro? Oh, he's going at Jalen Waddle right now. It's going as wide receiver 30. So the like the risk is being baked into the adp, which for me means that I'll take some shots on that.

[Andy Holloway]

Where it's not being baked in though is we saw HN was at four.

[Jason Moore]

Oh yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So could Devon HN in this office be the number one overall running back?

[Jason Moore]

I.

[Mike Wright]

Doubt it.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think so.

[Andy Holloway]

Can't give you an eckler year in this offense. I mean certainly with the pass 100 receptions.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah he with the pass catching volume, he can be top five. I think for all parties here for the avoiding the quick release, protecting tua, helping the run game, they have got to make this off season about the offensive line. Their offensive line needs to be, that needs to be the primary focus. If they want to fix their offense, they have to fix their offensive line.

[Andy Holloway]

Shocking stat. Number two, we'll call it James was cooking in 2024 James cook fantasy points via TD the percentage of fantasy points via touchdown 43%. We had a brief moment I think three or four weeks ago where I had the. I made a statement about James Cook and how I'd be out on him for next year. Very strong reactions as though I thought he wasn't a good player, which was not my point. It was, it was cost in the draft. The fantasy drafts versus likelihood of receiving a level of production as great as we just received from him. He had fewer opportunity snaps and yards than last year, which is shocking because you had a season last year where you knew you were moving on from competition and you thought you would be getting a more full time role. Instead we had weeks where like oh that's a lot of Ty Johnson, you know, and then Ray Davis. Like Ray Davis seems to be the guy that at a minimum this past year was your salt away the game guy. Right. Like you're up by a lot of points. Let's just let Ray Davis have the fourth quarter.

[Mike Wright]

Ray Davis had six touchdowns on his own, three passing, three rushing and eight into the passing work. Like James Cook is a really good passing pass. Catching back two years ago he had 63% of the running back target share for this team and that fell to 48% this year because they had a three way committee.

[Andy Holloway]

James Cook had 16 rushing touchdowns. 43% of his fancy points came via touchdown. He was the number one in the NFL in terms of the highest percentage of attempts turning into a touchdown. So all of that, look, it speaks to the fact that he's an explosive player. Big runs were in the repertoire. 7.7% of his attempts are turned into a touchdown. But over the last six years, that high of a percentage was a direct signal in fantasy for regression the following year.

[Jason Moore]

Points coming from touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And so you look at that and you say, what odds are you playing here? Can you, can you score 16 more times? And if you can't, it necessitates your volume increasing or your pass catching increasing. Like something has to get you back to that point. If you're not scoring 16 times. And look, it doesn't matter who you are, if 16 times for Derek Henry, you've got a chance of being down at 11 or 12.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, there's, I mean there's no way you would bet for a repeat of that. I mean if you put the line at ten and a half touchdowns for James Cook, it would be, it would be very difficult to take the over there. So there's going to be significant regression there. On the plus side for James Cook though, and what we need to give him credit for, for doing this year is he was very explosive and he's a, he's a super good running back. He made a difference. I mean we saw it through the playoffs, right? The commentators, the world at large realized James Cook is their second best offensive player, period. It's Josh Allen is the leader and their next best, best weapon is James Cook. So if you're saying that there is a weapon that can score touchdowns, can catch the ball, can rush for over a thousand yards on a great offense, right now he's being drafted as the running back 13 at this point for early best ball. You know he's out produced that spot the last two years. Two years ago he was the running back 11 even though he only had two touchdowns this last year, running back eight. With all these touchdowns. So will you still be out? Did the, any of the arguments online sway you at running back 13 next year for you to consider being in on James Cook or you still feel like now his role has gone down and the touchdowns won't be there?

[Andy Holloway]

I think he is just a matter of whether you believe he can ascend to being one of those top tier whatever you want to say. The Saquons, Gibbs, Bijon, Kyren, From a workload perspective, is that in his future?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

And I don't currently have a conviction watching him play football that that's how they're going to utilize him. I look at it more like Aaron Jones in Green Bay where look, you could on the right year, you will end up around the number five, six at the position. But the team has shown they're willing to use a rotation of backs. They did it to great success. They won the division. I don't know. I mean, that was one of the problems in the playoffs.

[Mike Wright]

Aaron Jones is the best comp imaginable because he wasn't a guy that went out there and, you know, was getting 350 opportunities a year. This is a guy who was, you know, usually 264, 232 and finished as the running back 2, 5, 12, 9 kind of these same finishes as James Cook. And he even had a season with 16 rushing touchdowns. Aaron Jones did the. He had nine rushing touchdowns. So he was, you know, obviously it's. It's going to be difficult, if not basically impossible for the average back to go back to back 15 plus rushing touchdowns. It's tough to just be out on James Cook though.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, shocking stat. Number three. We'll call it the Target packing order. I don't know if I like that title.

[Mike Wright]

I get it.

[Andy Holloway]

You know what I mean? Well, once you explain it, it's the Packer, Kyle. Not my favorite. The packers were the only team in the NFL without a single player seeing a target share above 19%.

[Jason Moore]

Did we bring up the Josh Jacobs quote?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Josh Jacobs quote. It was a headline maker. If you listen to him say it, it's softer than the way it came across in the headlines because he gives a lot of credit to the receiving core and the talent that they have.

[Jason Moore]

Before he drives the bus over.

[Andy Holloway]

It wasn't even that to me. It was more like.

[Jason Moore]

Like a light pickup truck.

[Andy Holloway]

It was like, these are guys. And again, let me read that stat again. The packers are the only team in the NFL without a single player above 19% of the target share. In fact, Jaden Reed had the fewest receptions, which was of any player to lead a team with 11 plus wins since 2015. But, but his point was more like, here's a bunch of guys that might be able to ascend to become a number one. But it would be nice if we had a number one already. That was kind of the point. Like, it'd be nice if we had somebody that was a proven commodity. And everyone keeps hinting about Devonte Adams coming back home. Coming back home. Because he's probably going to be dropped by the Jets.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think Adams wants to do that.

[Andy Holloway]

He wants to stay in California.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. He's like, I've been in the snow.

[Andy Holloway]

But, you know, that would be a reuniting of Josh James.

[Jason Moore]

Put a roof over Lambeau. And Devonte Adams.

[Andy Holloway]

And Devonte Adams. So it was, you know, I think there were some strong reactions. I think Jaden Reed and Dontavian Wicks in particular were vocal about their displeasure with the quote.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I did not see that. I am totally there for that.

[Andy Holloway]

Go ahead and take a scan of that. To which I say, go be a number one. And then he will not have said that. Go demand a target share above 19%.

[Mike Wright]

It's really hard to criticize someone for telling the truth. Yeah, I mean, it's. It's like, it's not always kind. Sometimes it's insulting. I don't think he intended to be insulting, but it. If the truth is insulting, you can't be too mad at someone. You could say, like decorum, that you don't say that to the media. Yeah, but he's still. He's. Is he wrong? I guess. Let me ask you that. Is he wrong? The packers already have a true alpha wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

No, they do not have a proven number one wide receiver.

[Mike Wright]

Can one of these guys become a true alpha wide receiver? 1?

[Jason Moore]

I don't think so.

[Mike Wright]

All he did was say, whatever.

[Jason Moore]

But you don't do that to your family out in the public with the quote.

[Andy Holloway]

I get that.

[Jason Moore]

Because to say quote, they all have the potential to be a number one, but we need a guy that's proven to be a number one.

[Andy Holloway]

That's why I don't. You don't like that comment?

[Jason Moore]

It's a backhanded compliment to me.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's the thing.

[Jason Moore]

You could be it, but I guess we need someone who is like, my.

[Mike Wright]

Kids could do their homework all the time, but I would love to have a kid that did their homework all the time.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, like, are you gonna bring that one home?

[Mike Wright]

I'm just saying I'm testing it out. How it feels to put my family on bed. Exactly. I'm putting them on blast.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that sounds like you need a new kid. I think that's a little apples and oranges.

[Mike Wright]

I'm just saying. I'm trying to think, you know, if.

[Andy Holloway]

It'S my free agent kid out there that did their homework, you might sign them.

[Mike Wright]

Just saying it would be great to have one on the Team that like just, just did, you know, I could trust, did their homework.

[Jason Moore]

Proven number one kid.

[Mike Wright]

A proven number one kid. That's what I'm saying.

[Andy Holloway]

You hear me now?

[Mike Wright]

I love my kids and they can. They all have the talent and the ability to be my favorite, but they're like number twos. I just wish it was like a proven favorite, you know, I think he.

[Jason Moore]

Figured out a lot.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think Jaden Reed can be that guy. If you look at the pathway, I think Jaden Reed is number two and I think the only one on the entire roster that could actually do it would be Dontavian Wicks. I think he's the only one. We're at the career place for Romeo Dobbs where you're not going up. You're just what you are.

[Jason Moore]

I think Romeo Dobbs is a strong.

[Andy Holloway]

Supporting wide receiver and they seem to have a team of supporting wide receivers. Yeah, that's the. So I agree with the comment, but I, you know, the big question is, will this change? Are you bullish for the Would you be bullish about the Green Bay offense going into next year with Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs if they don't have another person? Or do you. Are you always going to be playing the roulette at wide receiver with this group?

[Jason Moore]

If they don't do anything to help with the Christian Watson injury, I will. I'll be more concerned. But we like, I feel like I've seen enough of LaFleur and his offenses and Jordan Love's ability to say that the packers will still be a strong offense with all, with these guys that were that it feels like we're crapping on. But we're trying to say that they're still competent players with that group. They were still top 10 in most major statistics, 8th and points scored, 5th and yards gained, 6th in passing touchdown rate, 6th and expected points per pass attempt. Like this was a strong offense and like you can put Tucker Craft in there of maybe not a number one tight end but like it can be very helpful to an offense. So overall I'm still going to be in on the packers, but I do hope they, I do hope they add a number.

[Andy Holloway]

How excited would you be for Jordan Love if Devonte Adams came to that roster or somebody of that pedigree?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'd be much more excited.

[Jason Moore]

I'd be very excited.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, trade for DK Metcalf, Don.

[Mike Wright]

Tavian Wicks is a really interesting name.

[Jason Moore]

A number one wide receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think he, I really do. I think he is.

[Mike Wright]

I Think if, if he had a really good quarterback. Yeah, he's. He's at least an alpha wide receiver. One from like in my capability. Yeah. Just a capability standpoint I like.

[Jason Moore]

So Romeo just got to go. He's got to get the HGH and Bulls up.

[Mike Wright]

I don't think there's. There's some things you can't do. You just don't grow as tall.

[Andy Holloway]

A lot of DK Metcalf trade rumors again.

[Mike Wright]

I am.

[Andy Holloway]

The team seems ready to move on from him.

[Mike Wright]

I'm glad that you brought up Dontavin Wicks as the one guy who maybe could do it because I think this season we all wanted him to do it. He's got the talent. He's always open. He earns the targets. He doesn't catch them very well.

[Jason Moore]

39 of 74 targets, I'm not sure what. How many were catchable. I would assume most.

[Mike Wright]

But he is. He does have a lot of traits that appear really good. And it's hard, you know, when you're a Packer to not see. And especially with the quotes from LaFleur about how he reminds him of Devonte Adams. Do you remember when Devonte Adams first thousand yard season came, what year it was?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it was year four, I think.

[Jason Moore]

I think four.

[Mike Wright]

Year five.

[Jason Moore]

Five.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, because I spent four years insulting.

[Jason Moore]

Because he kept Devonte Adams to get to 990.

[Andy Holloway]

But he's not the rule.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no. He is the exception. But you know, his first two years, 446 yards, 483 yards. Sometimes we are quick to just kill a player's career.

[Andy Holloway]

I think Don Tavian Wicks, if he could catch the football. He's got everything else.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, exactly. So he's just got to learn one thing.

[Andy Holloway]

Just learn the.

[Mike Wright]

Just learn how to catch.

[Jason Moore]

Just learn the one man a jugs machine he's got.

[Andy Holloway]

He needs the receiving part.

[Mike Wright]

They're way more expensive. We looked up.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you look into a jugs machine?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I mean, you mean we. You guys did together. Looked it up.

[Jason Moore]

We were talking about this at some point and found out there it's a machine that does very little.

[Mike Wright]

There's two little tires.

[Jason Moore]

It seems not complicated to build. And they're like, yeah, it'll be a couple thousand dollars.

[Mike Wright]

There's two little tires. You know what I mean? And then it's like, oh, Jordan.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, because Jordan Mason bought one. So we went into that and discussion.

[Mike Wright]

You know, poles that go to the ground. The material cost is like, I don't know, was it 50 bucks you're going to charge me thousands for this?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, you got to, you know, got to sink the tires up. Real science.

[Mike Wright]

Like someone's got a good patent on that and they're holding out.

[Andy Holloway]

Pat Riley does. It's Pat Riley. It's Pat Riley's patent. All right, we'll take a break. We got some more stats for you.

[Mike Wright]

This episode is brought to you by USAA Auto Insurance. When it comes to auto insurance, USAA is the perfect first round pick. With usaa, you get award winning service that's easy and reliable. With 24, 7 online claims for our military community, it's the service that goes above and beyond at a great value. Get a'@usaa.com auto ability to receive a quote depends on membership eligibility. Membership eligibility and product restrictions apply and are subject to change. USAA means United Services Automobile association and its affiliates. San Antonio, Texas.

[Andy Holloway]

This episode is brought to you by Abbott. Let's talk about a small thing that can make a big difference if you have diabetes. The Freestyle Libre 3 sensor. It's amazing how the sensor gives you real time glucose readings so that you can see the impact of every meal and activity to make better choices. The Freestyle Libre 3 sensor can help you live life with diabetes on your terms. This is progress. You can try it for free at freestylelibre.us. offer available for people who qualify. Visit MyFreestyle US to see all terms and conditions. Certain exclusions apply for prescription only safety info found @freestylelibre us. You know, before we went to break, I brought up Pat Riley's name because he has the.

[Jason Moore]

He's always up to no good.

[Andy Holloway]

He's got the 3 Pete trademark. But then I realized, like, he had come to an agreement with the NFL and others to be able to use it. But I also thought when he signed that it's all contingent upon the Chiefs winning. Like, you're not printing up stuff.

[Mike Wright]

Pat Riley's pretty upset.

[Jason Moore]

So, like, he lost money. He was about to.

[Andy Holloway]

That was like, that was a big bet on Kansas City.

[Mike Wright]

Hope it didn't start spending that money.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, number four on our shocking stats today.

[Jason Moore]

Riley's okay.

[Andy Holloway]

He's probably. He's probably okay. Welcome to the laser show. Baker Mayfield's eight finishes.

[Mike Wright]

Who?

[Andy Holloway]

Baker Mayfield's eight finishes inside the top five were the most among all quarterbacks. More than Lamar, more than Burrow, more than Josh Allen.

[Mike Wright]

This is my favorite part.

[Andy Holloway]

In fact, that is tied for the most Mahomes has ever had in a season. Eight finishes inside the top five at the position on a season in which 4541 was the accomplishment. And it's wild because I've been thinking about Godwin, right? Like, Godwin has the injury. He's a free agent. To me, like, the injury might be the pathway to coming back. I think he's back to Baker, Bakertown. Then you'd have quite the group for Baker for another year. Godwin coming back at some point, and then Evans and McMillan and Otten and company. So it's interesting to say. To say, is Baker going to have, you know, more than one elite year when you're a pocket passer? Sure, there's a lot of variability, but he ran for 378 yards this past year. He scored three times on the ground. He's 29 years old. How many more top five finishes do you think he has as a starting quarterback? Rest of his career?

[Jason Moore]

Like a rest of season top five?

[Andy Holloway]

No. Really?

[Mike Wright]

No. The rest of his career. How many top five finish on the week in the top five?

[Andy Holloway]

Not that. I didn't mean that either.

[Jason Moore]

All right, hold on.

[Andy Holloway]

I meant what I said.

[Mike Wright]

Do the play call.

[Andy Holloway]

How many more top five fantasy seasons does he have as a starting quarterback?

[Mike Wright]

Got it. So end of season, he passes end of season. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Zero.

[Andy Holloway]

So you think never again?

[Mike Wright]

I think never again.

[Jason Moore]

I said I agreed with you. All right.

[Mike Wright]

You're.

[Jason Moore]

You're never. You're never back in the top five.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I don't think he's going to be top five.

[Jason Moore]

You're forgetting about the dog.

[Mike Wright]

He's got that dog in.

[Jason Moore]

The dog is there.

[Mike Wright]

The dog is barking like, is angry.

[Jason Moore]

Not all pocket passers have the dog.

[Mike Wright]

That's true.

[Jason Moore]

But that's an angry dog.

[Mike Wright]

This is his seventh season. This was his first season in the top five as a fantasy finish ever. And he did that on the back of. Let me. This is the one stat that is very predictably unsustainable for everyone, even the superstars. We talk about this when Patrick Mahomes does it. We talked about this back in the day when Aaron Rodgers, when your touchdown passing rate, the percentage of your passes that turn into touchdowns is outlandishly high for your career average. That doesn't stick. That doesn't just. That's not a stat. That's like. Well, because he did it last year, he has leveled up 7.2%, 7.2. And the years prior, 4.93, 4.1, 5.3, 4.1, 5.6. Like, we know who Baker is, and it's not a bad quarterback. He's A good quarterback. Even if he's leveled up, he's not going to throw 7.2% touchdown percentage next year. Maybe not by the house on it.

[Jason Moore]

I agree with that. But his, his career is so bizarre.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I don't like the seven year argument. I go. He's got two years that we can pay attention.

[Jason Moore]

I mean his, his first three years in Cleveland he was at 5.6, 4.1 and 5.3. So I'm gonna. I'm gonna put him closer into the fives.

[Mike Wright]

Sure. Which. That's above fair.

[Jason Moore]

That's above league average. He's not. I don't think he's gonna get to 7.2. But we've now seen him as a starter in Tampa Bay for two years. He was over 4,000 yards in both of them. The first year was just 28 touchdowns and it jumped up to 41. I think we're somewhere like. I think 28 would be if I set the line.

[Andy Holloway]

34 touchdowns next year. 34 touchdowns. Do you take.

[Mike Wright]

I would take the under.

[Jason Moore]

That's a really good.

[Andy Holloway]

I think I take the over.

[Mike Wright]

I think it's a really good line.

[Andy Holloway]

I think. I think he'll throw 35, but it's.

[Jason Moore]

Going to like if he only threw 28 touchdowns and played a full season and he's at 4,200 yards or whatever, that would surprise me.

[Andy Holloway]

So that was good enough for a quarterback. 10 for what it's worth in 20.

[Jason Moore]

23.

[Andy Holloway]

Nice thing about Baker, 17 games played two consecutive years. They're always fighting for their playoff spot at the end of the season.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

And he doesn't. He plays through injury.

[Jason Moore]

He. Just because of the.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll say one more time though.

[Jason Moore]

The way that his career has gone. One more time.

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe not next year.

[Jason Moore]

I like Baker. I think I have him much higher in Dynasty Startup rankings than most people do.

[Mike Wright]

So you're saying. Because I love Baker. I love watching him. I love rooting for him and I think he's a very good quarterback. But you're saying you love him specifically for fantasy like you. You are higher than consensus on what you believe he'll score for you.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean I like the situation. Got a first ballot hall of Fame wide receiver. Jay.

[Andy Holloway]

I have Kyler Murray, Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield on my Dynasty team. And I genuinely. I look at Baker, who is a throw in backup in a trade as my better quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

I man Baker, Kyler. So that's a crazy conversation.

[Andy Holloway]

You pulled up a stat yesterday, Jay or Mike did with the all time I think it was you, Mike. The all time completion percentage leader. You're talking about Burrow.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it was a Goodberry tweet.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it was something with the minimum games played. He's actually currently. If Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow, if his career was to be over right now, would be the all time completion percentage.

[Andy Holloway]

And Kyler Breeze at number two. And then Kyler was at three.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So, Mike, final answer then. How many more top five seasons? The rest of his career? I went with one.

[Jason Moore]

I think it is at least one. I will go, man. Top five is.

[Andy Holloway]

So That's a tough one.

[Jason Moore]

Tough. I'll probably say one, but.

[Andy Holloway]

And you're at zero, Jay.

[Jason Moore]

But very useful for fantasy.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And that is not. I don't want it to come across as me saying that he's not good for fantasy, but top five is.

[Andy Holloway]

It comes realizing you hate Baker and you're not allowed to root for him.

[Mike Wright]

Who are listening right now? They listen all year and they know how much I love Baker Mayfield.

[Jason Moore]

How many top fives for Laser for Justin Herbert?

[Mike Wright]

How many top fives for Justin Herbert left in his career?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's a good question.

[Mike Wright]

That's a. That's a great counter argument because I certainly would.

[Jason Moore]

Much younger.

[Mike Wright]

I would not put it at zero at all. I think he has three more top fives. Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

Three more.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Huh. So Herbert better get to it.

[Jason Moore]

Herbert's about to be 27.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

And currently has one top five finish.

[Andy Holloway]

I would. I would probably say one more for.

[Jason Moore]

Herbert, but I bring him up to just.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's a good.

[Jason Moore]

He's a pocket passer. Herbert runs a little bit like Baker.

[Andy Holloway]

How many more for Burrow?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, quite a few.

[Mike Wright]

Well, you have to assume he misses every other season, so that's gonna. That's gonna lower that number. And then he gets the comeback player.

[Andy Holloway]

Of the year every other season.

[Mike Wright]

Every other season.

[Jason Moore]

Dude, I burrow out here non stop publicly. Putting the pressure on his team is so delicious. Like, he just did it again. He was talking about the Eagles because they were like talking, you know how salary cap works. And he was explaining, well, I can, you know, if. If we convert some of my contract and move things around. He's like, they should just do what the Eagles do. Like, they're paying everybody and it seems to work.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I. That's a tough sell on certain ownership groups. You saw. I mean, they just literally had another player request a trade today, so.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but they have so much cap.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. They don't like to spend it. Certain ownership Groups are better than others.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, they don't hear Cap, they hear profit.

[Jason Moore]

Figure it out, man. Get Tee back there.

[Andy Holloway]

That'll be our last one for today then. Bungling Bengals. The Bengals were leading or tied on 69% of their offensive plays in 2024.

[Jason Moore]

That is absurd.

[Mike Wright]

Pretty nice.

[Andy Holloway]

Only the Vikings had a higher rate and they were the only team in the NFL at 60 plus percent that did not make the playoffs. So they were leading and playing well and just you know, one in seven and one score games.

[Mike Wright]

Woof.

[Jason Moore]

It's the anti Chiefs there.

[Andy Holloway]

That was before 3 and O in their final three games. But I look their defense atrocious across the board in every category. They lost their defensive coordinator or let him go this offseason.

[Mike Wright]

You know how Mike Tomlinson is too good of a coach to allow the Pittsburgh Steelers the opportunity to draft a top five future quarterback to miss. So he kind of, he kind of nerfs them in the playoffs because they don't have a Super bowl caliber team. But they've. He always takes the caliber he has. It gets him to the playoffs. So people are mad that he's not winning in the playoffs. He's a great coach. He's just kind of hurting them because he's not bad enough.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

This is the exact opposite situation with the Bengals. The exact opposite. Joe Burrow is too good to allow Zach Taylor to get fired. But what needs to happen is, you know what I mean?

[Jason Moore]

Like is this the new guy?

[Mike Wright]

This is. No. Zach Taylor is not a putrid stinky coach like the new guy. Like the Dennis Allen. I don't hate Zach Taylor. I don't think Zach Taylor is a good enough coach to like. It's doing a disservice to Joe Burrow. I want to see him have you know someone that comes in who knows how to help a franchise win.

[Andy Holloway]

I couldn't be on the more opposite side of you. The problem was the defense. Zach Taylor was a was a promoted quarterbacks coach. He's got the best quarterback in football and an amazing offense. The defense was bottom five. So you can blame Zach Taylor for not firing a heralded head coaching candidate. And why am I forgetting his name? Oriamo Ari. Goodness gracious. Who's the fire defensive coordinate? The fire defensive coordinator. Kyle, help me out here. Lou Annarimo Anarumo. Not Oregon, not Origami Samsonite. Lou Anarumo was the fault. So to me it's like you got the best freaking offense in football. You're doing all the right stuff.

[Mike Wright]

I know what you're saying there. And obviously the defense was the issue for this team and they went to the Super Bowl.

[Andy Holloway]

Was that.

[Mike Wright]

But there were. There are still just on a. On a game by game basis, play calling and decision making and cowardice. That I think is not, you know, it's.

[Andy Holloway]

You've never forgiven him for P. Ryan.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, this Super Bowl.

[Mike Wright]

That's one of a hundred, man. No, you didn't even remember that.

[Andy Holloway]

You bring it up. Yes, you did. You bring it up all the time because you have particular plays you don't like. And maybe you're right. Maybe this is one of those teams like that needs to make the change to take further advantage of Joe Burrow. I mean, the Bulls did it with Jordan, right? They moved on from winning season.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. From a good coach to a good.

[Andy Holloway]

Coach to a great coach. The warriors did it. Right. They won a lot of games with Mark Jackson, went on to Steve Kerr, like Harbaugh.

[Mike Wright]

Coming into the Chargers feels like what I want to have happen for the Bengals. But I. But to be fair, I don't know that there's a Harbaugh sitting out there.

[Jason Moore]

Is there a great coach that doesn't have a job?

[Mike Wright]

I mean, they had. Bill Belichick was available.

[Jason Moore]

I do not want Bill Belichick coaching my team.

[Andy Holloway]

I think everyone thinks that, including NFL teams.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, they have. They have proven that.

[Andy Holloway]

It's like, you're the best, but, like, no, thank you.

[Jason Moore]

He's just.

[Mike Wright]

He's.

[Jason Moore]

He's so old.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he is. He is. But Pete Carroll got a job, and I.

[Andy Holloway]

Would you have been more excited for the Raiders with Carroll or Belichick?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, that's a good question.

[Mike Wright]

That's funny because I. My answer is.

[Jason Moore]

I think it's Carroll.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, mine too.

[Jason Moore]

Carroll. Because Pete Carroll is more willing to do something like bring Chip Kelly in where Belichick will come in, and I mean, like, greatest coach of all time, Bill Belichick with no Tom Brady the end there. One of them went and won a Super Bowl. The other one faded into the mist.

[Andy Holloway]

I wish. Why can't you just have, like, co head coaches? Like two brilliant offensive mind, brilliant defensive mind.

[Mike Wright]

That's kind of what the coordinators are.

[Andy Holloway]

No, but that's all there is. There's just two.

[Jason Moore]

So there's no coordinators. It's just two head coaches.

[Andy Holloway]

Two head coaches. It's like Taylor and Spags from the Chiefs. Co head coaches.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know.

[Andy Holloway]

That'd be awkward. Locker room, locker room speech.

[Mike Wright]

What is the phrase where it's like when you have too many.

[Jason Moore]

When you, when you have two quarterbacks, you have none.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly. I think that would be the case.

[Jason Moore]

Two head coaches, you have none.

[Andy Holloway]

But there are a lot of situations where you're like, you know, you want Zach Taylor's influence on the offense. Maybe. I don't know. Burrow. Lost season. It was a lost season for the. For the Cincinnati Bengals.

[Jason Moore]

No, it was not Lost for fantasy teams.

[Andy Holloway]

No, it wasn't.

[Jason Moore]

We were having a great time with Joey B.

[Andy Holloway]

Do we need their defense to be bad?

[Mike Wright]

It helps want their defense to be bad. That is, for darn sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Leading or tied on 69% of all of their place didn't make the playoffs.

[Jason Moore]

That is a shocking stat.

[Andy Holloway]

The Bengals made the playoffs. The Bengals were. I'm sorry, the Broncos. The Broncos made the playoffs and they were. They were leading for 44% of the time. That is. I mean, that's wild.

[Mike Wright]

That's almost like they had a better head coach. Sean Payton.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, that's what we do. I mean, you got, what, 31 teams that need a new head coach after their failure of a season? One doesn't. And he seemed like he was going to get fired in the first quarter of the year, so. All right, we'll wrap it up. One more reminder. Head to ultimate draftkit.com order by March 1. Get entered to win a listener league spot. Come and play with us in 2025. And if you want an extra episode of the show, you can go to jointhefoot.com Become a Supporter. You get that extra episode every Thursday. The footcast. We're answering your questions, getting you ready for the off season. And if you want both of those things, that is the ultimate Foot Clan membership. And you'll get the UDK and everything we have all season long and never have to think about it again. So you can do [e-mail] as well. That'll do it for today's episode. But don't worry, we'll be back. Thanks for joining us.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you, everybody. Goodbye.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers pilot podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.