Starts of the Week + Week 11 Breakdown, Over the Bottom! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 11/14

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "Starts of the Week + Week 11 Breakdown, Over the Bottom!"

Date: November 14, 2023

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1. News and Updates

The episode kicks off with the hosts discussing the latest news and updates impacting fantasy football lineups for Week 11.

• Brian Robinson Jr. (Washington): [03:21] Andy Holloway remarks, "He's been awesome this year. A touchdown machine when he's active." However, concerns arise due to a tough matchup against the Eagles' formidable defense. Jason Moore adds, "I'm a little bit hesitant," advising caution when deciding whether to start Robinson, especially if facing tough defensive opposition.

• George Kittle (San Francisco): [05:06] Andy Holloway highlights Kittle's stellar season, stating, "He has just been so dominant. I don't think enough credit has been given to George Kittle's season so far." With an average of 14.9 half-point PPR across games, Kittle is a top-tier tight end, outperforming last year's number one tight end, Sam LaPorta.

• Najee Harris (Pittsburgh): [04:10] Mike Wright voices concern over Harris not practicing on Wednesday following an early exit from the last game. Jason Moore notes, "Does that concern you?" indicating vigilance regarding Harris's health and availability.

• DK Metcalf (Seattle): [04:05] Updates on Metcalf practicing in full suggest stability in his performance outlook.

• Additional Player Updates:

  • Jason Moore and Mike Wright discuss the injury status and practice reports of players like Aaron Jones, Dalton Kincaid, and Isaiah Pacheco, emphasizing the importance of monitoring these statuses for optimal lineup decisions.

2. Starts of the Week

The Hosts provide their recommendations for key positions, advising fantasy managers on optimal player starts.

Quarterbacks

• Russell Wilson (Denver): [08:30] Mike Wright endorses Wilson, noting his favorable matchup against the Baltimore Ravens' pass funnel. Andy Holloway expresses uncertainty but acknowledges Wilson's value: "I'm going with my stream of the week."

• Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers): [09:33] Jason Moore supports Herbert for his strong passing attack against a Cincinnati team that ranks 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Andy Holloway concurs, appreciating Herbert's potential for a Super Bowl-caliber performance.

• CJ Stroud (Dallas): [10:59] Given the Bears' struggling pass defense, Andy Holloway opts for Stroud over other Dallas QBs, citing favorable matchup conditions.

Running Backs

• Kareem Hunt (Cleveland): [12:17] Mike Wright praises Hunt's increased touches and favorable matchup against the Buffalo Chiefs, who rank 31st in schedule-adjusted points allowed to running backs. Jason Moore echoes this sentiment, favoring Hunt's consistent performance.

• Nick Chubb (Cleveland): [13:12] Despite some hesitancy, Jason Moore opts for Chubb against the Saints' top-ranked run defense, labeling it a "good matchup for Nick Chubb."

• Josh Jacobs (Las Vegas): [14:09] Andy Holloway selects Jacobs over similar options, emphasizing his high usage against a Chicago defense vulnerable to the run.

Wide Receivers

• George Pickens (Pittsburgh): [15:49] Jason Moore identifies Pickens as a top flex option due to Baltimore's weak pass defense, stating, "The trajectory for Pickens is great."

• Calvin Ridley (Atlanta): [17:19] Andy Holloway recommends Ridley against Minnesota's struggling pass defense, highlighting Ridley's dominant target share.

• Juwan Jennings (Pittsburgh): [15:01] Mike Wright praises Jennings' strong target metrics, suggesting he’s a reliable flex play.

• Jordan Addison (Seattle): [36:49] Andy Holloway advises moving on from Addison, expressing preference for more consistently productive receivers like Ricky Pearsall or Jacoby Myers.

Tight Ends

• Tucker Kraft (Green Bay): [17:54] Jason Moore recommends Kraft against Chicago's defense, noting his touchdown potential and favorable matchup.

• Mark Andrews (Baltimore): [43:44] Andy Holloway decides to retain Andrews despite some recent inconsistency, valuing his high touchdown likelihood over other options like T.J. Hawkinson.

3. Fantasy Forecast and Matchup Analysis

The hosts delve into detailed analyses of key matchups, providing predictions and strategic insights for fantasy managers.

Packers vs. Bears

• Jason Moore analyzes the Packers' favorable matchup against a struggling Bears offense, predicting an offensive boost from Green Bay. Andy Holloway aligns with selecting Packers' running back Josh Jacobs, citing Chicago's vulnerabilities against the run.

Ravens vs. Steelers

• Prediction: Andy Holloway leans towards a Ravens victory, despite Jason Moore expressing uncertainty due to the Steelers' improving defense. Key factors include:
  • Derek Henry (Ravens): [41:46] Critical to Ravens' success, especially against a middling Steelers run defense.
  • Lamar Jackson (Ravens): Mike Wright notes Jackson's reliability against the Steelers, enhancing his fantasy value.

Raiders vs. Dolphins

• Jason Moore highlights the Dolphins' robust defense, making the Raiders a tough play. Despite Andy Holloway’s humor regarding quarterback uncertainties, the consensus leans towards favoring Dolphins' defensive dominance.

Rams vs. Patriots

• Jason Moore and Andy Holloway discuss the Rams' inefficiency and the Patriots' struggling offense. Andy Holloway dismisses offensive plays like Travis Etienne (ETN), favoring more reliable receivers.

Browns vs. Titans

• Andy Holloway anticipates a Cleveland win, boosted by coaching changes and favorable matchups. Jason Moore agrees, citing Cleveland's disciplined strategy under new leadership.

4. Parlay Picks

The Hosts conclude the episode by sharing their parlay picks, combining multiple fantasy football prop bets into a single, high-reward wager.

• Jason Moore's Picks:

  • Calvin Ridley, over 50+ receiving yards.
  • George Pickens, over 60+ receiving yards.

• Andy Holloway's Picks:

  • Kareem Hunt, over 3.5 receptions through innovative "over the bottom" passing strategies.
  • George Pickens, supporting picks from both hosts.

Andy Holloway humorously discusses the mechanics of throwing over the bottom, adding a lighthearted touch to the strategic recommendations.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Mike Wright on George Kittle: "[05:21] Andy Holloway: 'He has just been so dominant. I don't think enough credit has been given to George Kittle's season so far.'"

• Andy Holloway on Russell Wilson: "[09:24] Andy Holloway: 'I love that he's a good value. But then I'm like, but the problem with that is then I'm relying on Russell Wilson.'"

• Jason Moore on Calvin Ridley: "[17:19] Jason Moore: 'Since DeAndre Hopkins was traded, Ridley's numbers have been impressive. I'm focusing on him now.'"

• Andy Holloway on Derek Henry: "[41:46] Andy Holloway: 'Derek Henry is the reason that Baltimore wins this game.'"

• Jason Moore on George Pickens: "[15:49] Jason Moore: 'George Pickens is on pace for a breakout week with Baltimore's struggling pass defense.'"

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Conclusion

This episode provides comprehensive insights into Week 11 matchups, player conditions, and optimal fantasy football strategies. The Fantasy Footballers trio—Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright—offer actionable advice, backed by in-depth analysis and engaging discussions, ensuring listeners are well-equipped to dominate their fantasy leagues.

Transcript

[Mike Wright]

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[Jason Moore]

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[Mike Wright]

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[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

From ATT Stadium in Arlington, Texas, watch Paul vs Tyson, now streaming only on Netflix. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Ah, welcome in.

[Mike Wright]

It's football time. It's defense time.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, it's a 48 point over under. Mike. I know it could work out.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah, it should.

[Jason Moore]

You just seem so. You know, I just think that it's predetermined. Like, you just think it's gonna be sad.

[Mike Wright]

That's. I mean, that's kind of how we speak about things on this show.

[Jason Moore]

No, I know.

[Mike Wright]

We're predetermining what's going to happen.

[Jason Moore]

I just think you're pretty sure it'll be a defensive battle.

[Mike Wright]

I think the defenses are very, very good.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. No, Latimore, we did find that out. We thought maybe he'd be back out there or out there for the first time for Washington.

[Mike Wright]

If it ends up not being a defensive battle and it's just points, glory, then.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, that's good.

[Mike Wright]

You're welcome, everybody.

[Jason Moore]

No, that's right.

[Andy Holloway]

You talked it out of existence.

[Mike Wright]

I jinxed it. Yeah. If it happens, it's because I said it was going to happen. If it doesn't happen is because I jinxed it.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Win, win, win.

[Andy Holloway]

What do you call that, Mike? The main character.

[Mike Wright]

Main character syndrome.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Welcome into the fantasy footballer Jason Moore, Mike Wright, Andy Holloway, Deucers Alley.

[Andy Holloway]

Full house.

[Jason Moore]

Full house, everybody.

[Mike Wright]

For now.

[Jason Moore]

Everybody there right this moment. Papa Josh, the Falcon, Al Borland over there. We've got starts of the week today. We've got the fantasy forecast. We got the parlay parte.

[Andy Holloway]

One of us is a clown.

[Mike Wright]

It's me.

[Jason Moore]

And so we got some. I think. I think we're on our way to triple crown this week, by the way.

[Andy Holloway]

I do, too.

[Jason Moore]

I've never thought that before.

[Andy Holloway]

I know. I'm on the way to a crown.

[Jason Moore]

So you can check out the ultimate dashboard bonus weekly episodes of the show the community [e-mail] jump right into the news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league, presented by USAA Insurance.

[Jason Moore]

Well, Brian Robinson Jr. Will be part of that defensive battle tonight. Removed from the injury report.

[Andy Holloway]

We'll play practiced in full, which is a great sign. Again, very tough Eagles defense. I've seen a lot of questions. I've had people dming like, oh, man, do I, do I play Brian Robinson Jr. I'm a little. I'm a little bit hesitant. He's been awesome this year. A touchdown machine when he's active. But I am hesitant with how good Eckler's been coming off of a hamstring issue, missing the last two games. Tough matchup, that it might just be a little bit more of a split. I think if you don't get the touchdown tonight, you'll be disappointed in Brian Robinson. It's not to say you need to bench him, but if I'm, if I'm close, you know, a tiebreaker for me, I would go elsewhere. Even though he's on Thursday night.

[Jason Moore]

Aaron Jones limited in practice. DK Metcalf practiced in full.

[Mike Wright]

Let's go.

[Jason Moore]

Najee Harris didn't practice on Wednesday. Does that concern you? After him leaving early at all?

[Mike Wright]

It's, it would be a little bit more extra concern, like if Najee is going to take a Wednesday off. Normally, I don't care, but because he was hurt in the game, it's. You got to pay attention.

[Jason Moore]

T. Higgins, Ltd. Oh, well, okay. Is that good?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

I saw it for T. Higgins.

[Mike Wright]

That's fantastic.

[Andy Holloway]

I saw a report come out that they don't expect T. Higgins to be on the team next year. So breaking news.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. I mean, they, they could have moved him at the deadline. They didn't. Could have gotten something for him, but they are still in it. So the Bengals, George Kittle did not practice on Wednesday. Hamstring. Hopefully he's going to be okay.

[Andy Holloway]

He has just been so dominant. I don't think enough credit has been given to George Kittle's season so far. We've, we've talked up, you know, how good Brock Bowers has been as a rookie sensation and. But Kittle's just, he's gone somehow a little bit under the radar for how good.

[Jason Moore]

I feel like we've given him tons of credit, really. Tons of Mike. I think we've given him credit.

[Mike Wright]

I think we have. But what Jason is saying is Just that he's dominating. Yeah, he is absolutely crushing for.

[Andy Holloway]

He doesn't have one bad week the whole year. He doesn't have a down. He doesn't even have like an average week. He's just dominating the entire season every single week.

[Jason Moore]

You see it changing.

[Andy Holloway]

I do not see it changing. No.

[Jason Moore]

The hamstring would do that. But otherwise, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean he's played through a lot of injuries. I think that Christian McCaffrey makes this offense better. Iuk being gone. I mean we have enough data on Kittle being dominant. When either IUK or Debo are outside, I think it just continues.

[Mike Wright]

So some context. He is currently averaging 14.9 half point PPR or half point points per game. Not half point PPR. That's way too many things. But he's at 14.9. Last year's number one tight end on the year was Sam Laporta at 11 and a half.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly.

[Mike Wright]

So that like he is.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what I'm saying.

[Mike Wright]

He is a difference maker right now.

[Jason Moore]

He is. He's scoring a ton of touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

That's why I think he's on pace for 15.

[Mike Wright]

He's already at the second highest touchdown total of his career.

[Jason Moore]

The Bills, despite being favored, they are missing Dalton Kincaid in practice on Wednesday. Amari Cooper Ltd. Keon Coleman already ruled out. So monitor. You know, I was really hoping that Kincaid could have been a bi week fill in for me this week and instead he got hurt and he's just had a disappointing year.

[Mike Wright]

He has.

[Jason Moore]

And Isaiah Pacheco unlikely to play this week.

[Andy Holloway]

I think that game is going to be a real disappointment that. I mean, I hope, I hope I'm wrong. You know, the Buffalo team, I mean that's, that's, you know, a game of the week type of matchup. I can't wait to see it. But I'm just saying for fantasy, sure it'll be a disappointment. The defenses are both playing well, offenses still banged up.

[Mike Wright]

So the news about Pacheco being unlikely to play like it's more of the fact that we are asking the questions. Hey, is Pacheco going to play this week? So we've been mentioning that. He seems like he's going to be back shortly. So if he's on the waiver wire, I would be scooping him up.

[Jason Moore]

That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com insurance.

[Andy Holloway]

Starts of the week.

[Jason Moore]

Now Mike, you said that starts of the week this week it was a little bit more difficult for you to kind of hone in on a player.

[Mike Wright]

Absolutely. Because with the starts, you know, sometimes we do the. Well, this is a, this is a great player. And I'm saying I think that he could be number one on the week or we're looking at, you know, middle tier players who have great matchups that we're trying to say this is a player. We're giving you confidence that the opportunity is right there for that player. This week is just weird with all the by weeks and what the matchups are. It's difficult to find those like lower mid options where you're like, oh man, I think he's in a great spot this week. So it's, it's just a weird week overall for matchups.

[Jason Moore]

Well, who did you settle on for quarterback?

[Mike Wright]

So I'm going with my stream of the week. I'm going with Russell Wilson. He gets to play the Baltimore Ravens, which that's like, that's a great matchup is whatever QB is playing against them and Russ is playing well. If you're not paying attention to the Steelers, Russell Wilson is playing well. It's funny to dunk on him because he's such a weirdo. He, Mr. Unlimited got the dangerous sandwiches, all of those things. But he's been a top 10 QB in two of three weeks. The yards per attempt, it is where we need it. It's got the big potential. And it's just the Ravens, they're a pass funnel. 31st and schedule adjusted points to the quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Unlimited diarrhea. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, look, a guy who's sharing that type of content, he's a weird guy.

[Andy Holloway]

But it's. I like I am, I'll be honest. So I'm, I'm this morning, I'm making my DraftKings lineup for tomorrow's episode and I'm staring down Russell Wilson there.

[Mike Wright]

It's like, how do you not.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a good value. But then I'm like, but the problem with that is then I'm relying on Russell Wilson.

[Mike Wright]

I get it.

[Jason Moore]

I went with. I'm going with Justin Herbert on Sunday Night Football against Cincinnati.

[Andy Holloway]

I love that.

[Jason Moore]

The passing attack for the Chargers, it's, you know, trickled up and up over the last few weeks getting Quentin Johnston back. And the truth is, you know, that Cincinnati can score. I mean, this game has been bet up to the second highest total of the week. And Cincinnati is 28 in schedule adjusted fantasy points to the quarterback position. So I think Herbert is a really good start and it's rare that we've been able to Say that I've actually thought a lot about this Chargers team with Harbaugh and what the weapons that they have. Their defense has been very good. This team feels like they are two superstars away from a Super Bowl. That's the way it feels to me. Like if they had, you know, you think about how San Francisco has just been so disciplined on both sides of the ball. They have a Bosa on one side, they've got a Debo on the other, a cmc. It just feels like the Chargers are missing that one.

[Mike Wright]

They got a Bosa.

[Jason Moore]

They do have a Bosa. They do have a Bosa. But they're missing that one special offensive weapon on because I think Herbert is a Super bowl winning quarterback. I just feel like they're missing that, you know, they're missing their Chase, their Jefferson, their cmc, their Jameer Gibbs, whatever it is, you know. Yeah, maybe it's Ashton Gianti. We'll see.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. No, I like that play. I came into the DOC to make that my start of the week. I love the matchup, but since he was taken, I went with CJ Stroud, who has been a massive disappointment so far on the season. They're in Dallas. Don't worry. I know it's usually a controlled environment, except for that, but it's Monday Night Football, so the sun should wait.

[Jason Moore]

Where's the moon going to be?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'll tell you. Who knows where the moon is right now? Jerry Jones.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, he knows.

[Jason Moore]

You can tell where the moon is a year in advance.

[Mike Wright]

The moon man.

[Andy Holloway]

But, you know, he hasn't been a quarterback one since week four. However, he hasn't had Nico Collins since that time. And this is really about Nico Collins, who is currently, I believe, our consensus wide receiver. Five on the week. Like there's no doubt. If you got him, you're playing him. His splits through two years without Nico Collins are so telling. 19 games with Nico. He's averaging 21 fantasy points a game. Six games without, he's down to 16 fantasy points per game. And if you look at Dallas's defense, it's really falling apart. I know they've got Michael Parsons back. It's home game. You know, hopefully that just means that their offense can kind of keep up with the Texans a little bit, which might be difficult, but they are 31st in schedule, adjusted fantasy points, 31st and explosive pass rates since week six. So I like CJ Stroud. I think I would be happy to start him this week.

[Mike Wright]

All right. At the running back position, I have Kareem Hunt Like I'm with Jason that the Buffalo Chiefs game could be just an all out brawl here on the, on the like, who can score the most points where it might be tough, but Kareem Hunt is one of the guys who I actually feel really, really confident in. And we got one more week at least of him since he's taken over. In week five, he ranks number one in touches per game like this. It's so wild.

[Jason Moore]

They have just fully trusted him.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they've turned everything over to him. And then talking about the matchup, the Bills 31st and schedule adjusted points to running back 31st and explosive rush rate allowed 30th and adjusted yards before contact. This is a team you can run on. And Kareem Hunt, like I said, over 24 touches a game. I think he's in such a good spot.

[Jason Moore]

Well, his former running mate, Nick Chubb is who I'm going with at running back. It was a hesitant selection this week, but I'm trying to find somebody that's not just that auto start. And facing New Orleans, the fact he got a bye week after three games of 14, 18 and 16 opportunities, he's. He's due for a return to form type of game. And you're playing the Saints who allow the six most rushing yards per game. I think the way you win this ball game is that balance not giving the ball to James too much. This is a good matchup for Nick Chubb. So I think you can start him RB2 with RB1 upside.

[Andy Holloway]

Would you, would you start him over Brian Robinson tonight?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah, I would, I would. I think that with Robinson coming back, the workload could be somewhat down and Philly being so good. I would do that.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

It's the first week that I have any type of confidence playing him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. At running back. I'm going with Josh Jacobs against Chicago. Very, very similar to your Kareem Hunt pick, which I love. You're facing a defense that is very good at shutting down quarterbacks and wide receivers. Where you beat them is in the running game. That's the leakiest part of the Chicago defense is the running game. They're 22nd and schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. 29th in yards per carry allowed at 4.8. And you've got the fifth most yards per game in the NFL with Josh Jacobs. So I think Josh Jacobs, who's averaging 20 opportunities a game is going to be needed to beat Chicago. He's been looking good. We're just waiting on more touchdowns. He's actually been pretty Pretty darn good on a per touch basis. And if a touchdown comes this week in Chicago, it should be good. The Packers, I mean, you know, coming off the buy, I expect them to.

[Mike Wright]

Look really good at wide receiver. We talked about him on the Difference Maker show on Tuesday. It's Juwan Jennings, 11 targets last week. When he's on the field, like Brock Purdy just goes to him a 26% targets per route run, 2.84 yards per route run. That like this is elite stuff. Averaging 71 receiving yards per game. The matchup is great. This is the, I think this is kind of the last time before the, before the weekend if you want to try and get Juwan Jennings, who I really do believe is a strong flex play for the remainder of the season. You're going to have to do it now because, well, I mean, trade deadlines are coming up for sure, but it's like I'm going to wait one more game. I think the price is going to go up if you wait.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I'm going to take the, maybe, you know, the shot at the number one overall player of the week or at least the top five guy. George Pickens. Yeah, George Pickens. No team's given up more fantasy points to the wide receiver position than Baltimore over the last five weeks. This is a divisional. I think it'll be a back and forth affair. Both of these defenses are, they're good, but they're not going to shut you out type of defenses. I mean, we saw some of the battles that the, you know, Steelers defense had with Denver this year and I just think this is a very exciting, fun game. Pickens is always a big play away from a big game, but now you've got this matchup that makes it really, really easy. Baltimore just, they're dead last in like every metric against wide receivers. The matchup is good. The trajectory for Pickens is great. The addition of Mike Williams only helps. I like Pickens this week.

[Mike Wright]

Pickens is why I'm willing to start Russ. I give. I know the matchup is there for Russ, but if you didn't have a player like Pickens, it would feel far sketchier. But I think that George is just, he's. He's about to take off.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And it's not every week that you know that Pittsburgh is going to have to throw a lot, but Baltimore is going to score. So I, you know, again, I think that connection should be good for wide receiver. Start of the week, I'm taking Andy's undertaker, my guy, back from the dead. Calvin Ridley versus Minnesota.

[Jason Moore]

I like that.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Since DeAndre Hopkins was traded. 34% team target market share, 44% of the team's receiving yards. Both marks are number one in the NFL over that span. And Minnesota, hard to run on, easy to throw on. They are seeing the second highest opponent pass rate for that reason at 66%. They ranked 28th at schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. So the matchup is there, the targets are there, the everything is lining up at home for Calvin Ridley to be good against Minnesota.

[Mike Wright]

And the tight end starts. These are where it's tough to find someone where you're like, oh man, this, this will. I'll put on the underpants. I feel good about it. But it's just, it's Tucker Kraft from the Green Bay packers gets the matchup against Chicago. The tight end is the position that you can beat them. Should you be throwing. And like he's just, he's been a touchdown machine. Jordan Love likes to get his touchdowns through the air. And look, he actually talked about Tucker Kraft. He only trails Brock Bowers in terms of yak this season at the tight end position. So it's good player. Yeah, he's probably in a good spot to score another touchdown.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you're looking for that spot start option this week and so I want to give you some confidence that you can throw out Johnny Smith this week. If you've got Kate Otten on by Trey McBride on by John who Smith plays Las Vegas 29th against tight ends over the last five weeks. I'm sorry, since week five, Johnny Smith six targets, five receptions, 52 receiving yards a game. He even got it done last week was a about an inch from a touchdown on a big play. Very good after the catch. And you know, you got word that now Hunter Henry's banged up and how much confidence do you have in Jake Ferguson with Cooper Rush and you know, like all of these peripheral backup options are feeling a little bit worse right now along with the bye weeks. So I think John is a play.

[Andy Holloway]

And for me, this week is hockey. Lee's Hockey League. T.J. hawkinson at Tennessee. Well, yeah, I mean he's. I mean why would you not be. Last week nine targets, eight for 72 on just 46% of snaps. He was targeted on 32% of his routes run. And over the last three weeks, you look at the Titans defense, they've seen 25 plus percent of their opponents targets going to the tight end position. You had Sam Laporta with his 6 for 41 and one game against him. You had Hunter Henry go 7 for 56. Even Will Disley caught five balls last week against the Titans. So you've got a guy that's getting more and more involved. Very necessary to the offense and the matchup. That is good. He's our tight end. Six right now on the week, I'd start him ahead of guys like Evan Ingram, Kyle Pitts, Sam Laporta. I think it's a good matchup and he's a good player.

[Jason Moore]

I'm just curious, have you been able to move him yet in league of records?

[Andy Holloway]

I have a couple trade offers sitting there waiting for me to hit accept or not.

[Jason Moore]

And they just need a little, a little value.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not giving them away. He's really good.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we will go ahead and take a quick break and then we'll jump into the forecast. This episode is brought to you by Mattress Firm. We all have those guys in our league. You know, the guy who always forgets to set his lineup until the last second and maybe misses out on points and then blames the system. Or the one who always leaves their highest scoring player on the bench and then regrets it after the game, complaining nonstop about it. But when you're matched with the right mattress at Mattress Firm, anybody can sleep at night. Why do we love Mattress Firm? How about the free and fast delivery? Mattress Firm offers free and fast delivery straight to your door. If you can't wait to sleep, great. You can get that free and fast delivery. And you know we want that perfect bed and we want it quick from Mattress Firm. They also have a low price guarantee. If you see a lower price, Mattress Firm will match it. If you see it someplace else, they'll match it. That's Mattress Firm with a low price guarantee. And you can take advantage of that. Every mattress you could need. Quality mattresses at every single price. Get matched at Mattress Firm's Black Friday sale and sleep at night. Text FOOTBALL to 766-693 for $100 off your next purchase at Mattress Firm. Restrictions apply. Cmattressfirm.com or store for details.

[Mike Wright]

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[Jason Moore]

Okay. Buccaneers, Cardinals, Giants, Panthers on by this week we'll kick it off with a packers team that's six and three traveling into Chicago who's four and five.

[Andy Holloway]

It's time for fantasy forecast presented by DraftKings sportsbook.

[Mike Wright]

Good work, producers.

[Jason Moore]

Never done that before.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm sure you have.

[Jason Moore]

No, I have a lot. So, yeah, the packers and the Bears DraftKings sportsbook line Green Bay minus five and a half over under just 40 points. That gives Chicago just 17 and a half. No more Shane Waldron. But you know, the problems are not going to be fixed overnight with Chicago's offense taking a ton of sacks. Kind of a disinterested DJ Moore and over the hill Keenan Allen and a inconsistent Roma Dunes A. The shameful lack of usage of Cole Comet who seemed to unlock the offense for three weeks and then suddenly disappeared. You know, Matt Eberflus could be gone if they lose this game at home against Green Bay, a division rival, and they, you know, they dropped the 4 and 6. It is. Do you expect them to have a resurgent performance just because of the shift at offensive coordinator or is this going to be more of a Jets situation?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I mean, so I don't, I don't know. The data on offensive coordinators being let go. We have seen, we did the research and saw that when head coaches are replaced, the week one bump, the first week is actually really successful. They see the Saints. Yeah, yeah, exactly. And then after that week it all goes to crap that, you know, just like the team that, you know, needed to fire their head coach. How you would expect them to perform with the offensive coordinator being that the game is at home. I think you could see a little bit of an offensive bump here from the Bears. That would be very exciting.

[Jason Moore]

But it'd be nice if it was a better matchup than the Green Bay.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, the Truth is, you're hoping that the Bears have a great offensive performance. Not for the Bears side of the ball, but for the packers side of the ball. Because I can't imagine right now you have the confidence to start many Bears. You can start DeAndre Swift. He's been involved, you know, and at the running back position, you need him. But DJ Moore, Roma Dunes, Aquinan, Allen, Cole Comet, Caleb Williams, I don't know how you start them. You just. You just hope they do enough. Where the guys that you do want to start over on the packers side of the ball, you know, have to keep going. You know, you love what you saw from Jaden Reed to start.

[Jason Moore]

You like Josh Jacobs, though, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

The game script. And look so embarrassing for Chicago last week against New England at home scoring three points. That. That was. That's just. That's unimaginable. It makes you very not confident. Even Swift has kind of returned to earth a little bit after his upshot. But you're right, the opportunity should be there. But beyond that, I wouldn't have confidence with anybody.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So when it comes to the packers, obviously you're going to start Josh Jacobs. The question at wide receiver, I think most people are starting Jaden Reed this week. You got enough by weeks where he's pretty much locked in. But what are you doing with, you know, are you willing to take a shot on a. Christian Watson, Donovan Wicks, Romeo Dobbs?

[Mike Wright]

I'm okay with Dobbs because the targets are there. I'm not expecting, you know, like in week six and week seven where he was a top 15 play, I don't expect that. But he should see six or more targets and you just hope he scores.

[Andy Holloway]

What about Jordan Love? Are you starting them here? Because right now the Bears schedule adjusted on the season, they're number two against quarterbacks. They don't give up a lot in the passing game.

[Jason Moore]

Coming off the buy, I'm going to, you know, it always depends on your options, but banker Mayfield's on by this week. Kyler Murray's on by this week. Yeah, I know you start Bryce Young in all your leagues. He's on by this week.

[Andy Holloway]

Of course.

[Mike Wright]

Your stream options, like it's. Do you have faith in Bo Nicks or Russell Wilson or do you just want to play Jordan Love? So it's a. It's not an easy decision. This.

[Jason Moore]

Did I say Banker Mayfield? Is that what you. Is that what you said, Banker?

[Mike Wright]

That's what I heard.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Huh. I want to be a banker.

[Mike Wright]

I'd rather him be a Laser than a banker.

[Jason Moore]

Jordan. Jordan Love has been, you know, just very good.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, he has.

[Andy Holloway]

He struggled those last few games, but I credit a lot of that to the groin injury.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, he left one of them early and then the other one was playing hurt.

[Andy Holloway]

So.

[Mike Wright]

I love Rain.

[Andy Holloway]

I love that he's coming off of the bye week. A little bit of extra rest for him. Yeah, I think he's a low end starter this week.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Yeah. Jaden Reed, I'd get him in there, but no, I don't. I don't have a. I don't have the guts to start a Wicks or a Watson.

[Mike Wright]

I would. Yeah, I would bench those guys this week if possible.

[Jason Moore]

Tucker Kraft, your start of the week at tight end, Mike. Jacksonville's 2 and 8. They take on the 8 and 1 Detroit Lions. The Lions are 13 point home favorites.

[Andy Holloway]

Opened at 12 and a half, so it's not large enough.

[Jason Moore]

So DK has the over under at 47. That gives Detroit 30 points. So, yeah, I mean, this is one of those games where, you know, this should be the automatic survivor pool victory no matter what type of situation. And I don't expect to be surprised by it. But, you know, Mac Jones is getting the start. You don't really have confidence. Like, is it possible we could literally be telling you not to start a single Jacksonville Jaguar this week? Or are you slipping Evan Ingram into that group?

[Mike Wright]

Evan Ingram, His DK reception line is at five and a half, so they expect him to still see targets. Like, it wasn't. It wasn't amazing last week, but it also. It wasn't the worst thing we've ever seen.

[Andy Holloway]

And then he passed five and a half last week, right?

[Jason Moore]

Six. Six receptions.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, but he did. But he was not good.

[Jason Moore]

Six for four.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I mean. But it's not. I'm saying you're at least getting something out of him. I don't think Evan Ingram is like a. Oh, man, I got to bench him and go get one of these nasty tight ends.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, I would play. Let's put that. I mean, I played Jonah Smith over him.

[Andy Holloway]

I do not think Evan Ingram gets to 10 fantasy points in half PPR.

[Jason Moore]

I also wouldn't play Johnny Smith over him. I was lying just now.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, thank you for. Thank you for your honesty.

[Jason Moore]

That's the line right about there.

[Mike Wright]

They're saying it's not the week for it. So he's probably in. And then ETN is.

[Jason Moore]

Would you play Taysom Hill?

[Andy Holloway]

I would not. I would play Kraft. I would not Play Hill the.

[Mike Wright]

So the matchup is awful for the running backs, of course. But Tank Bigsby got hurt in the game. He was a did not practice on Wednesday. So if there's ever a time where ETN should just have a huge workload and Dearness Johnson was also limited on Wednesday. That's the old. That's the upside here. You hope he catches four to five passes.

[Andy Holloway]

I wouldn't start Travis ETN if he was my only running back on my roster.

[Jason Moore]

The target at this point, targets haven't been there. He doesn't have Trevor Lawrence. It's a Detroit defense.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean anyone can end up with a pass interference call at the. With the one and then Travis ETN get a touchdown. But honestly, if he has three or four options from the one yard line against this Detroit team, I'm not sure he gets in the end. Would you.

[Mike Wright]

He might still be on the waiver wire. Who knows. But the hot name Audric estimate.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

Against the Falcons.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I would.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. What about. Gus Edwards is back for sure. He's playing Cincinnati.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Personally, I would play Gus Edwards ahead of estimate. I think that's not consensus.

[Mike Wright]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

I think Gus gets a touch.

[Mike Wright]

What about one of the. What about Madison?

[Andy Holloway]

Let's just, let's just say everybody.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. I didn't, I didn't know it was. It was that bad.

[Jason Moore]

It just seems like very, very low odds to be happy.

[Mike Wright]

I agree.

[Jason Moore]

I mean I would say you had low odds to be happy with Lawrence and you're sitting here.

[Andy Holloway]

In the last three weeks, Travis ETN is averaging 2.9 fantasy points per game. Averaging with his high being sub five.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean he's outside the top 36 at the position on the year. I know he missed a couple games.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not dropping him. I still think things can turnaround for him specifically because like a turnaround he was, he was injured so they were working him back. Now Trevor Lawrence is not there, but he could be. But he could come back. The matchups get better. I think Travis ETN has brighter days ahead. I'm not saying he's done for his career, but this week. No.

[Jason Moore]

And I, it's. Brian Thomas is the same way for me. Brian Thomas against Detroit this week. You can, you can put him out there as a flex, but I'm playing Juwan Jennings over him. I'm playing, you know, T. Higgins with one less quad over him.

[Mike Wright]

Just being on this side while it's you two being the ones disparaging Travis ETN is guys, it Feels good. It feels so good.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, you do need.

[Andy Holloway]

It's pretty fun on this side too, man.

[Jason Moore]

You need peripherals. You can't have no quarterback, no offense, no line.

[Mike Wright]

The peripheral is last man standing. That's.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's fine.

[Mike Wright]

That's the play.

[Jason Moore]

That's fine.

[Andy Holloway]

And I do think on the line side of the ball, you can play everyone there. There exists a path where all of a sudden the touchdowns come early on the running game. I really do believe. And you know, obviously the NFL is drunk sometimes and things are shockingly unexpected, but I do think that the Lions. Everyone gets a piece. Like you worry in matchups like this when there's a point spread like this weekend where it's going to be all running and there's going to be no passing touches. I think everyone. I, you know, I'd play all of my lines. I think they score 40 points and everyone gets a little piece.

[Jason Moore]

Well, Laporta you need to keep an eye on because he missed practice on Wednesday. So laporta's shoulder could take him off of the list for you. It's why you need to look at these other pivot tight ends. And then Jameson Williams is still going to be a big play reliant. But yeah, I mean I. When you have a 30 point implied point total at home.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Get in on it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So Minnesota is seven and two. They take on the two and seven Tennessee Titans Minnesota calendar game. Yes. DraftKings sports book line. Minnesota on the road minus six over under 39 and a half. That gives Tennessee a lower implied point total than Jacksonville has on the road against Detroit. Both defenses on paper are, you know, Minnesota is obviously great. Tennessee has been okay. Will Levis is going to just. He's going to look real, real bad again.

[Andy Holloway]

If I had a button. If I had a button, this would be my button. This would be my almost upset.

[Jason Moore]

Is this because you haven't liked what you've seen from Minnesota's offense over the last.

[Andy Holloway]

The last couple weeks?

[Jason Moore]

Couple weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

Sam Donald's starting to pumpkin.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. The clock.

[Andy Holloway]

Five interceptions, five interceptions in the last two weeks for. And this is a good defense. The reason Tennessee is losing games is not because of their defense. Their defense is pretty good. It's kept them in games. And then Will Levis has found a way to gift the other offense the ball in great field position. And so I think it'll be a little bit more struggle.

[Jason Moore]

Are you talking about zero touchdown Will Levis last week?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's.

[Jason Moore]

Or zero. Sorry. Zero interception Will Levis oh, whoa.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. No. Minnesota's defense is very difficult to run on, but, you know, over the course of the season, you have been able to pass on them. Wide receivers are fine against them, so that's why I like Calvin Ridley in this matchup. And I think that if this defense at home could turn Sam Darnold over a few times.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I guess I kind of get it.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, I still think Minnesota ends up winning the game. It's an almost upset.

[Jason Moore]

You do like Calvin Ridley. His reception line is four and a half. He's your start of the week. And Pollard, you know, Mike was kind of on top of it last week. And just saying that since Spears has been gone, you've seen that workload. 74, 89, 82, 86% of the snaps. It went down to 54%. Maybe they had the ability to give him more of a rest because he's been dealing with injury.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Pollard in this matchup, it's a. It's tough sledding.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. This is one where, if you've got another option, you might not have a better option than Pollard, but if you do, I would look that way. You know, the opportunities. Once Spears came back, you had Pollard getting 20 carries, 28 carries, and then this last week, nine carries with Spears back. A tough Minnesota run. D. It's not. You know, you're down almost a touchdown here as far as the DK line. So I think he is someone you've got to take a hard look at and not just bank on what he did a month ago.

[Jason Moore]

One player that's been really disappointing this year, ranked at wide receiver 63, has averaging just 3 for 39 since the buy. And now you have the addition of TJ Hawkinson. I'm talking about Jordan Addison. Like he is. He was a flashy name. He performed last year, but I think at this point, you need to move on and find better options off of the waiver wire because it's going to be Jefferson, Hawkinson, Jones, they're all much higher in the pecking order. Even Naylor has been involved in games that Addison hasn't been involved. Are you fully moving on from Addison?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, I. I would. There's a lot of names out there. I would rather play Ricky Pearsall. I'd rather play Quentin Johnston.

[Mike Wright]

Jacobi Myers.

[Andy Holloway]

Jacoby Myers for sure. Jerry Judy, Jalen. Jalen Wadden. That was hard.

[Jason Moore]

Jalen Waddle, Cedric Tillman.

[Andy Holloway]

There's a handful of names that I would much rather have than Jordan Addison.

[Jason Moore]

I'd actually in this game, I'd probably rather play Westbrook Akin on the other side who's actually scored in four of five weeks. Like he's been looked to on the goal line. He's out there almost 100% of the time. I would. I think he is a boring but somewhat productive option for fantasy players in a game where you can't run and you are going to have to throw the football all game long. Any other thoughts on this game, Mike? No, other than Will Lavis already having nightmares about the blitzing of Minnesota.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, there's no nightmares, man.

[Jason Moore]

You don't just mayonnaise.

[Mike Wright]

You're not scared of what you can't see.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I was going to say he does not see him in his dreams either, man. No, I promise. He has never seen a pass rush in his life.

[Mike Wright]

He just also is like, I'm on the ground again.

[Jason Moore]

You see that Kyler comment about must have fallen over.

[Andy Holloway]

What was that?

[Jason Moore]

You see Kyler's hit last week from Quincy Williams where the helmet went flying?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Whoa. That was a murderous hit.

[Jason Moore]

So Kyler's like. He said he didn't even know what happened. He just was on the ground and he said he liked it. Nice. He said it got his adrenaline going and he hadn't been hit in a while. And then he played really well after that.

[Andy Holloway]

He did. He played really well. But that was a complete blindside. And unlike Will Levis. Will Levis is blindsided from straight in front of him.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, yes.

[Andy Holloway]

But this was an actual blindside where the guy was coming from behind. He had no idea that someone was there because he doesn't actually have eyes on the back of his head. Will Levis does have eyes on the front of his head. He still can't see people right in front of him.

[Mike Wright]

The report is true.

[Jason Moore]

Will Levin, it was part of his scouting report. Has eyes in the front of his head.

[Andy Holloway]

No, doesn't have eyes in the front of his head. I'm trying to teach the man that. Yes, you do. Don't. He keeps his eyes downfield too far.

[Mike Wright]

He's laser focused on his wide receivers.

[Andy Holloway]

His eyes are always 30 yards downfield and has no, like, I don't know, the amount of bokeh on his eye lenses, but he can't.

[Mike Wright]

Does he have a peripheral vision issue?

[Andy Holloway]

Has to, man. He has to.

[Jason Moore]

He's always zooming. Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

It's like zoo, dude.

[Jason Moore]

There's no macro.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he's got a. He's got to take a wider photography, Joe. Wider Linz replacement.

[Jason Moore]

Nice Bokeh Joke, bro. Baltimore seven and three. Pittsburgh seven and two. DK Sports book line. Baltimore minus three. The over unders 48. It's in Pittsburgh. I want to know right at the top before the analysis for fantasy, who do you think wins the ball game?

[Andy Holloway]

Baltimore. I think they're going. I think they are. Too much for the Steelers.

[Jason Moore]

I don't. I mean, it's Baltimore minus three. I guess. I guess I'm overdue.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. All right.

[Jason Moore]

It's been a minute. If you can find that drop. Oh, here it is.

[Andy Holloway]

Andy's almost upset of the week.

[Jason Moore]

This is. This is just. This is the kind of game Baltimore loses on the road. Really difficult divisional game with the crowd and the pressure and teams that know each other and teams that know what Lamar knows how to do. I. I don't know. I think it's going to be fun. I'm excited about this game. I know we. We mock Russ, but he's better for this offense. He's better for Pickens. He's better for Williams. He's better for Najee. They're scoring 30 points a game since he became a starter. And the Ravens, you know, this is not a Ray Lewis shut you down defense.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, no.

[Jason Moore]

This is a. We're going to like. I think they. They can stop the run a little bit, but they'll not. Pittsburgh is not going to stop handing it to Najee. I don't know. I think Pittsburgh has what it takes to kind of put the pressure on Baltimore, and Baltimore's had. They've had a couple close wins this year, and then they've had a few losses that are like.

[Mike Wright]

They just fall apart in the.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, they've just been kind of outmatched, and I just wonder if the pressure's on if Lamar tries to do too much and can't get it done.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, you. You've had Pittsburgh here scoring points with Russ, so, you know, they've got three starts, three wins, 37 points, 26 points, 28 points scored by the Steelers. So that's exciting. And I think they can score on the Ravens. The question on the other side to me is about Derek Henry, because the passing defense for the Steelers has been very, very good. In four career starts, Lamar Jackson has not scored 20 fantasy points against Pittsburgh. So to kind of speak to your almost upset.

[Jason Moore]

They know what to do against him a little bit.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, there's a. There's a clear path here for the Baltimore Ravens to come out and be disappointing against Pittsburgh. That's why I think this comes down To Derek Henry. Can this Steelers run defense that really is just middle of the pack. The last six weeks. Exactly. Recently they have not been good. They're 27th over the last six weeks against fantasy running backs. So that's where. I mean, I got to check Vermont's weather, but if there's snow on the ground in Vermont, I think Derek Henry is the reason that Baltimore wins this game.

[Mike Wright]

Well, the DK rushing yard line on Derek Henry's a very healthy 86 and a half.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's.

[Mike Wright]

So they're expecting.

[Andy Holloway]

They're expecting snow on the ground in Vermont. Okay. I do have Kyle researching the weather report in Vermont.

[Mike Wright]

How do we not have him.

[Jason Moore]

Send him out there. Do we have a. We need. I believe he's boots on the ground.

[Mike Wright]

We're a, we're a company of automation. Guys. How is this, how do we not have like a siren go off in our office?

[Jason Moore]

Honestly, you know, and this is, this is way too late to do this. But we should have been having Vermont weather on the back wall for a long time.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. At least during all Derrick Henry games. And if you're new to the fantasy footballers and you're not sure, there has been absurd correlation between snow on the ground in Vermont and Derek Henry's success. No matter where he's playing, it's good. Which has never been in Vermont.

[Mike Wright]

Kyle says it doesn't look like snow.

[Jason Moore]

Also, this is a bit.

[Andy Holloway]

This is a bit. But it's also weirdly true if Derek.

[Mike Wright]

Henry has a poor game.

[Jason Moore]

He's also had some really great games without snowing.

[Mike Wright]

Well, yeah, he's Derek Henry.

[Andy Holloway]

Whatever. Come on. Science.

[Jason Moore]

Lamar Jackson, you play Henry, you play Zay Flowers. Are you back at it?

[Mike Wright]

Yes. Zay Flowers is an every week start. You just got to take the lumps.

[Jason Moore]

Isaiah likely was back at practice. Mark Andrews has a 17% target share over the last five weeks. Steelers Middle of pack against tight ends. Seems like it would be really difficult for you to have a pivot if you've been playing Mark Andrews.

[Mike Wright]

I agree with that and I am. I'm excited to see what actually happens here now that like the. He was forced into a full time role last week against Cincinnati talking about Mark Andrews because Likely was out but everything was ramping up for him. So I want to see now that Likely is back. Does. Does that ramp continue? Because that will be a. Just a huge shot of confidence here to close the season.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I will say that. You know, I've talked up T.J. hawkinson a lot. I have Hawkinson and Andrews in a league and I am playing Andrews. All right, I'm going to stay.

[Jason Moore]

Are you really?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I'm going to stay in the Flames because I think, I think it's kind of like what we talked about last week with Andrews versus Gasicki where it's about the touchdown. I think that there's a higher likelihood of Andrews getting a touchdown than Hawkinson if he doesn't. If neither guy gets a touchdown, hockey probably has more targets. Receptions, maybe yards.

[Mike Wright]

The like the last five weeks of Mark Andrews tied in 4, 3, 10, 30 against Denver. But if you remember the context of what happened, that was the Zay Flowers week where Flowers had two drive ending touchdown receptions and then the team scored 41 points against Denver and they pulled everybody out. It was a blowout and Mark Andrews played half the snaps and then back to tight end to the following week. So we're just, you know, I don't think it's a guarantee for Andrews but we're on a really, really good trajectory right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Let me ask you this before we move on. Final question of the game. Andy. I picked Baltimore to win. You weren't sure. Almost upset but the line set at 48. Do you think this is more offensive or defensive?

[Jason Moore]

I see it right middle of the road, maybe leaning offensive honestly. So you know, 48 points is a lot.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So I don't, I don't. I'm not necessarily taking the over there but I think that's right. I find my 48 points is about right.

[Andy Holloway]

I find myself agreeing with you. That's part of what I like about Andrews is I could, I can see the path for this game going very large.

[Mike Wright]

Jason, would you play Jalen Warren or Travis etn?

[Andy Holloway]

I think you've done it. You've found a way to get me to say Jalen Warren. Okay, good.

[Mike Wright]

That's where. That's what I was trying to get to.

[Jason Moore]

We'll take a break. We'll come back with some more matchups. The Las Vegas Raiders 2 and 7 take on the 3 and 6 Miami Dolphins in Miami. Miami seven point home favorites. DK has it at 44. The over under. The Raiders have. They've made an about face. We had announced yesterday because the report. The report.

[Andy Holloway]

Snip snap, snip snap.

[Jason Moore]

It came out from official sources that Desmond Ritter was going to be the starter and then Victor came out and said they got cold feet and it's actually going to be minshew. Yeah. I mean that you should.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

You don't have good options at quarterback. But Ritter shouldn't be any of the options.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, we went to practice and we put Ritter out there and then we were like, what are we doing? Look at this.

[Mike Wright]

Until Sunday, guys. It's the ultimate ruse.

[Andy Holloway]

Ooh, I like it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I just.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm sure they'll have packages for both.

[Jason Moore]

This is good for Brock Bowers is good for Jacoby Myers, whose reception line is five and a half. It's good for any hope of the Raiders scoring points. Now. The Miami Dolphins defense looked really good against the Rams. They're at home. They've got their guys back. I, you know, I feel like Miami should be able to beat up on a bad team here.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they should.

[Jason Moore]

That's what we should be able to get.

[Andy Holloway]

I completely agree. We had talked about putting a pause on our belief of the Miami defense because the Miami defense, they're number one scheduled, adjusted on the course of the year against quarterbacks, their top 10 against wide receivers and tight ends. Their passing defense has been really, really good. But we weren't sure how much of that was to have been gone. When you watched that island game against the Rams last week, their defense was outstanding. They were pressuring. They were pressuring the Rams so much all game. You've got Ramsey in the backfield and Kaleus Campbell seems young again at 38 years old. So I think their defense is legit. It's going to be very difficult sledding here for the Raiders.

[Jason Moore]

Does that make to a spot start for you or. No, because he hasn't hit 20 fantasy points in 14 straight starts. He's not. Can we just give Tyreek a shot?

[Mike Wright]

The wild thing here.

[Andy Holloway]

And waddle.

[Jason Moore]

Chuck it.

[Andy Holloway]

Stop going to John. Stop. Going to John. Who? Smith. Stop it. Stop. It's gross. It's disgusting. It's not efficient. It's okay.

[Jason Moore]

It's not Jon. Whose fault? Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

No, Jono, you're doing a great job, but I want to see you doing cardio. I want to see you out there drawing defenders and not getting that ball. Because I want the ball and Waddle and Tyreek's hand.

[Jason Moore]

I really like a chain in this game. I really am hopeful that. Look, this is a scary, terrifying Tyreek Hill game for me because his receiving line is at 67 and a half. He is dealing with the wrist injury. If he's not productive in this game, and I'm not talking eight, nine points, if he doesn't score 15 points in this game, I'm worried that the injury is going to linger through the remainder of the season.

[Mike Wright]

The Raiders, if their defense can do one thing, it's slow down wide receivers. Last six weeks. Wide receivers are seconds in adjusted schedule against them right now.

[Jason Moore]

Look, Tyreek never has cared about those numbers.

[Mike Wright]

I know.

[Jason Moore]

So I.

[Mike Wright]

That DK line is like, okay, they're.

[Jason Moore]

That's a lot of yards.

[Mike Wright]

Sharps are taking this serious. Yeah, well, I'm saying, like, that's not a lot for Tyreek though, is that.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I mean, it would be after last week. Yeah, but I guess you're right. I guess you're right.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, like, normally when you look.

[Jason Moore]

At last year and what he averaged.

[Mike Wright]

Hill's line is like 80 something. You're like, yeah, that makes sense for Tyreek Hill, that it's all the way down to six.

[Jason Moore]

He averaged 112 yards a game last year. So that. You know what, that's a good point.

[Mike Wright]

The target share is just, I mean, it's not John whose fault, but they're just. There they are featuring the tight end position way, way more than they ever have.

[Andy Holloway]

I was thinking about Tyree Kill after the last game and realizing that right now, Tyree Kill has been, I mean, abysmal. He's played in every single game. He's the wide receiver, 32. He's not even a wide receiver, too. In the games with tua, he's been just as bad. Not, you know, it's. Nothing has gone right for him. I've seen so many trades where, you know, should I move Tyreek for this, you know, wide receiver who's been performing and you've got to take a, you. I mean, we don't, we don't know the future. There's. There's wrist injury concerns, there's schematic concerns.

[Jason Moore]

There'S risk, risk, risk, risk.

[Andy Holloway]

However, I am going to bet on Tyreek Hill. And so that's my official stance. Like I would personally be willing to even go trade for him. Because right now I've seen some trades where it's not costing you much. If you've got a, if you've got a guy that's been scoring, you know, people are wanting to get out of Tyree Kill. And I'm not guaranteeing that that's going to be the right move. But at the end of the year, I don't think we're going to look back and say Tyree Kill lost it and is, you know, a seventh round pick next year. Because this entire season he just sucked. I think he'll get it together. He's still like, you watch him on the Field, he's still lightning fast.

[Mike Wright]

There's other fast players. I mean, like Tyree Hill. Success is not just because he's fast.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, I just want it on the record that, you know, it's kind of like when Mark Andrews was sucking and people were dropping him and it's just like, hold on, this is a good player. It looks good on the field. I believe in the talent. I don't think he's lost it. So that's where I am officially with Tyreek.

[Jason Moore]

Is Raheem Moser dead as the flex option?

[Andy Holloway]

For now, yeah. I mean, if you're getting three opportunities last week, you can't start someone that's not touching the ball.

[Jason Moore]

Well, the Rams lost last week to the Dolphins. They are four and five. They go to New England to take on the three and seven patriots. The DK sportsbook line. Rams minus four and a half on the road. The over unders 43 and a half. You know, the Rams games have hit the under four of five games. Their defense, it was a defensive battle against Miami. Matthew Stafford has Cooper Cup, Puka, Nakua. Both those guys are in your lineup, right? I mean, is it as simple as Stafford, Kyren, Cooper and Puka?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it definitely is.

[Jason Moore]

And then on the other side, Ramon Dream gets tipped over into the end zone a couple times a week. Lately it's not been efficient. He did jump up to 3.7 last week.

[Andy Holloway]

His rushing and receiving yards line from DK is 77 and a half. Holy. Not going to happen.

[Jason Moore]

You don't like that?

[Andy Holloway]

No, I do not.

[Mike Wright]

No, I do. I like that number. To say that he will not get there.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, when's the last time he's gotten.

[Jason Moore]

Last week was 77. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

He hit 74 rushing yards against the Bears.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And three receiving yards. I'll be right back. It's one of those things where the team has so the team has so he's.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm just going to go make sure that line is accurate and maybe do something about it.

[Jason Moore]

This team has so few options in the passing game and in the offensive side that they're just committed to handing the ball to him a ton. And so that's led to inefficiency. They don't have, you know, players to, you know, take away eight in the box. Against Ramon Ray Stevenson, I don't think he has looked particularly bad or good or anything. I just think it's, you know, Bouti is getting the most playing time at wide receiver right now. Like if there was a player. I'm Picking up to start. I would play him in the same breath of Demario Douglas. I mean, I. He's getting 99% of snaps. He had six targets.

[Andy Holloway]

You got three weeks in a row with that. Andy, this is a. This is a mark of the beast situation. Six, six, six targets each of the last three weeks. So, yeah, I mean, you're mark of the booty. You are mark of the booty. You're correct that he is involved. He's also getting some shots downfield. It hasn't turned into much, though. Like that's. That's kind of the issue is you don't expect a lot of touchdowns here. Like with Westbrook. Akini, he's getting in the end zone and I just don't know how often the Patriots are going to. I think the Rams coming off a.

[Jason Moore]

Loss, a DFS play, a punt play.

[Mike Wright]

I'm with Andy. Yes, it's the production's not hitting, but if the other stuff are there saying that at least it could happen if.

[Andy Holloway]

You want a DFS punt play in this game. Davis Allen.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Is he took the job back? Well, he never had the. I mean, he only had the job last year during an injury. But this is a guy who I liked for Dynasty. If you listen in the off season before they brought in Parkinson, this was a player who looked like he was going to take a year to leap into a starting role. And then you look at his snap percentages on the year. 8% of snaps, 0% of snaps, 4% of snaps. It's just completely uninvolved. And then this last week, 80% of snaps. Colby Parkinson was not on the injury report. This was a. Hey, we're just going to. We're going to move. We're going to put.

[Jason Moore]

And what happened?

[Andy Holloway]

Six targets, five receptions.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I was going to say they lost.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, sure. No, they did. They did lose.

[Jason Moore]

I got to get the Colby Jack out there.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think I'm playing Davis Allen in any kind of redraft league. But if you are looking for a super cheap punt play, and I am, you can't.

[Mike Wright]

2500. 2500.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I guess we know who Mike's 500.

[Andy Holloway]

I know that's usually the pump plays. A tight end are three K. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So New York City, Cleveland two and seven. New Orleans three and seven games in New Orleans. DraftKings sportsbook line. Cleveland minus one over under 44 and a half. Give me your gut reaction. Who wins this game?

[Mike Wright]

Cleveland.

[Andy Holloway]

I have Cleveland winning this game as well. I think the one Game, post, coaching change hype.

[Jason Moore]

Well, look, he instilled more of a Falcon esque strategy. I don't know if he knew this, but before last game he detailed how his day, his first day coaching the team started with him clogging the toilet in the head coach's locker room.

[Mike Wright]

He told people this.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, so he said what a real man does, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

He said he thought it was going to be a bad day. And I'll tell you here, every time Falcon clogged the toilet, we had a bad day. We don't got good day.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's true. I love that Rizzy.

[Mike Wright]

Rizzy is the clog in the drains, huh?

[Andy Holloway]

I mean that's how you christen a bathroom. Man. This is your first time in the head coach's locker room toilet and it's like this is my throne now. Take this.

[Mike Wright]

You can't guess I've never thought about this. The head coach has his own commode.

[Andy Holloway]

This is the first time I've ever heard of the head coach's locker room.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that sounds like there's a whole locker room. But he only needs to use one locker.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I mean it's like, you know, fancy businesses. The CEO has a private bathroom. Why the head coach?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he should.

[Mike Wright]

You gotta drop a dump of roof. Problem is you don't want to be in there playing, you know, playing battle poops with the team.

[Andy Holloway]

But you don't usually have a locker room for one.

[Jason Moore]

It's also difficult.

[Mike Wright]

It would be amazing. It's just a bath with one locker. That'd be great.

[Andy Holloway]

Or there's 10 lockers, but they're all yours. You know what I mean?

[Jason Moore]

This is Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Look, you don't. The problem with having your own bathroom is that there's no doubt who's the clogger. You could have blamed somebody, but he's.

[Mike Wright]

Not a blame guy.

[Andy Holloway]

No, he took full accountability. I like the race.

[Jason Moore]

I think this game's pretty heads up to me. I could see it going both directions. James Winston, so schizophrenic on the field. You know, you've had a pretty bad Saints defense, but there have been a game or two where they've looked. Okay, let's get to the fantasy players that matter here. The number one start sit guy out there coming off the buy had been really good as the wide receiver. 14, 3 and 16. Cedric Tillman, he's the number one name. Tillman or Juwan Jennings. Tillman. Or Devontae Smith. Tillman or Calvin Ridley.

[Andy Holloway]

I like Tillman, but Is not over any of those names to me.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I agree.

[Jason Moore]

Tillman, you know, 12 targets, nine targets, 11 targets.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, no, he's. He's been involved. He's looked good. 81, 99 and 75 yards. But the total fantasy production has really been propped up by three touchdowns in the last three games. So whether you expect that to continue or not, I would think which one.

[Mike Wright]

Was the real stinky trash touchdown? That must have been week nine where it was like. I mean, the catch was awesome, but it was like the game was. The game was over and the clock was running out and it was just. Oh, sweet.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's great for fans. I believe that was their last game.

[Jason Moore]

So we like Kamara, Nick Chubb. We brought him up. This is a week that you can kind of start him with some confidence.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Because of New Orleans leaky run defense.

[Mike Wright]

Did you say his line? His rush yard lines at 58 and a half. Okay, that's all right.

[Jason Moore]

That's fine.

[Mike Wright]

Take that.

[Jason Moore]

MVS was the show last week, but I mean, like, can you start anybody beyond Camara? It doesn't feel like it.

[Andy Holloway]

You could start Taysom Hill just because of the position. I don't love this.

[Jason Moore]

Could you sit Taysom Hill too? Yeah, you could definitely start or sit Taysom Hill.

[Andy Holloway]

You can do that with almost every player. Almost not etn, but.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, because you can't start it. Okay, I see what you did.

[Andy Holloway]

This is totally going to. There's no way this could blow up in my face. Dude, he's going for 20 plus fantasy points.

[Jason Moore]

Well, so you don't feel confident. Then the dart. Dart throws on.

[Mike Wright]

The thing about MVS is he matches up with what Derek Carr has done well this year. And the matchup the last six weeks, the Browns 25th against quarterbacks, 30th against wide receivers. So it's not. It's not impossible. But remember, it is. It's mvs.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Yeah. This is a man who failed with Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Yeah, so he don't over yet.

[Mike Wright]

He needed a good quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

Jerry Judy's been hiding back behind Cedric Tillman, but actually getting targets as well. Hasn't had the performances, hasn't gotten into the end zone since week one. But desperation play, maybe Jerry Judy in this matchup.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. 19 targets in the last two games. You can. You can certainly look his way.

[Jason Moore]

All right, it's time to move forward. Jason, go ahead and reach behind you. We've got the parlay.

[Mike Wright]

Give me the wig.

[Jason Moore]

We got the parlay. Part 2.

[Andy Holloway]

Give me the wig.

[Jason Moore]

And last week Jason and I, well, we got fitted for some royal crowns. I would say we look pretty, pretty good.

[Andy Holloway]

You do, you do.

[Jason Moore]

And last week I look like James.

[Mike Wright]

Cook trying to catch his targets.

[Jason Moore]

Last week I was lucky enough to get Aaron Jones over 60 rushing yards despite the injury.

[Mike Wright]

Jason, did you count his cart yards?

[Jason Moore]

No, they were not factored in.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, he put up probably 70 plus.

[Jason Moore]

He came back into the game and actually put up 88.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we thought for sure that you took the L on that. Yeah, because he left the game injured, it was like, well, that stinks. And then he's back in and crosses the line. I thought I took an L on Alvin Camaro over four and a half receptions because I was counting them as we went along and I was like, oh, I guess I thought I needed one more. I didn't.

[Mike Wright]

We crushed.

[Andy Holloway]

Good job, Andy.

[Mike Wright]

Good work.

[Jason Moore]

And James Cook couldn't get it done.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Jason Moore]

Was not cooking. This week's picks. I'm going to go Calvin Ridley, 50 plus receiving yards, his numbers since DeAndre Hopkins was traded, 143, 73 and 84. Hopefully I'm not ruining this man by actually focusing on him. I've just been letting him perform in the background.

[Andy Holloway]

That's not even true. You had him as your second half sleeper. You came out in favor for him and you did well. Thank you for reminding me of that last week. What I wanted to take was Kareem Hunt's receiving over because of the matchup against the Denver Broncos. They are one to target for receiving overs for running backs. But he had only been getting like one target a game. One target, maybe two targets. He had 10 targets last week. And so I'm going to take Bijon Robinson against Denver Broncos this week over three and a half receptions. He's averaging 4.1 receptions per game. And again, Denver is the way that their defense plays. You can hit him over the top in the check down with I guess what's, what's. It's not really over the top. It's like over the bottom. Gonna hit him over?

[Jason Moore]

No, not over the bottom.

[Mike Wright]

What are you.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm saying when you don't. When you pass to the running back, you're not going over the top.

[Mike Wright]

So you're checking it down.

[Andy Holloway]

That's literally something a little bit new, fresh.

[Jason Moore]

You're looking for something different.

[Mike Wright]

Why? Everyone knows to evolve to. But we know what a check down is.

[Andy Holloway]

But this is like the defense is coming at you. You got to go over the bottom.

[Jason Moore]

You Know what I mean? Like a slip screen. Yeah, because it's like a. I'm going.

[Andy Holloway]

Over the bottom here, man.

[Jason Moore]

Like a slippery.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm just going to try slippery bottom, see if it works.

[Mike Wright]

It's not working.

[Andy Holloway]

It's working for me.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I got George. I got George Pickens at 60 plus receiving yards. It's not just me believing in Georgie Porgy this week. Andy's in. It's the start of the week. It's the Baltimore stuff. Yada, yada, yada.

[Andy Holloway]

His.

[Mike Wright]

His actual line is under 60, so I'm taking a few bonus yards here. But we made it. We made it into the parlay.

[Jason Moore]

Just so that the comments aren't, you know, filled with this. Kyle has been quick to remind us that it is called throwing underneath. So over the top. You throw underneath. You're not into that.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, underneath. Check it down.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I'm throwing over the bottom, though.

[Mike Wright]

But you can't throw over the bottom.

[Andy Holloway]

I think you can, man. I really. I can throw over the bottom.

[Mike Wright]

Well, you can, but professional quarterbacks can't, man.

[Andy Holloway]

Kirk Cousins gonna throw over the bottom all game. I know it. I'm gonna start. Every time I see one of those where the pass rush is coming, it's like, oh, over the bottom.

[Jason Moore]

You know those moments when it hits in the back?

[Mike Wright]

That's over the bottom.

[Jason Moore]

That's into the bottom.

[Andy Holloway]

That's too literal.

[Jason Moore]

All right, that was. Fantasy Forecast presented by DraftKings Pick Six. Download the new DraftKings Pick Six app now. Use the code BALLERS. That's the code BALLERS for new customers to play $5 and get $50 in picks six credits. Pick six credits. All right, that'll do it for today's show. More matchups. The fantasy face off the wheel of shame that I won't be spinning tomorrow.

[Mike Wright]

Lord, man, leave me alone. Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Gambling problem.

[Jason Moore]

Call 1-800- gambler must be 18 and over. Age and eligibility restrictions vary by jurisdiction.

[Andy Holloway]

Void.

[Jason Moore]

Were prohibited 1 per new customer. Non withdrawable pick 6 credits. Expire in 6 months. Limited time offer.

[Andy Holloway]

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