Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "Starts of the Week, Wk 1 Matchups, Lev Bell Saga" (September 6, 2018)

Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

Introduction

The Fantasy Footballers kick off their September 6, 2018 episode by diving straight into the excitement and uncertainties surrounding the start of the NFL season. Skipping the typical ads and intros, the hosts focus immediately on delivering insightful analysis and strategic advice for fantasy football enthusiasts.

Lev Bell Saga

Overview: The episode delves deep into the ongoing saga of Le'Veon Bell, the star running back for the Pittsburgh Steelers. With his contract negotiations lingering, Bruce Tomlinson's comments suggest that the Steelers might apply for the two-week roster exemption, potentially delaying Bell's return until November.

Key Points:

• Current Status:

  • Andy Holloway: Highlights the widespread uncertainty: "Literally everybody. Not just like players of fantasy football. Le'Veon Bell's teammates, Le'Veon Bell's coaches. Nobody knows what is going to happen." ([02:34])
  • Mike Wright: Initially downplays the information, stating, "So we know nothing. We know absolutely nothing." However, he acknowledges the known facts once presented.

• Potential Outcomes:

  • Jason Moore: Discusses the implications for fantasy managers, questioning the rationale behind Bell holding out and the potential need to trade him: "What does it matter if you miss one week or two weeks?" ([04:40])

• Team Dynamics and Animosity:

  • Andy Holloway: Points out the growing tension: "There's animosity, there's bad blood. The arrow is pointing down on the whole situation." ([07:23])
  • Mike Wright: Emphasizes Bell's use of his bargaining power: "He is using the only recourse that he has in the bargaining agreement." ([05:19])

• Fantasy Implications:

  • Mike Wright: Advises managers to consider their comfort with uncertainty: "What can I live with as a fantasy football player?" ([08:11])
  • Andy Holloway: Suggests being cautious with Bell in fantasy lineups due to potential delays and team chemistry issues: "I'm a little bit more hands off." ([07:23])

Conclusion: The Lev Bell situation presents a significant dilemma for fantasy football managers. The hosts recommend assessing personal risk tolerance and considering alternative running backs if Bell's status remains uncertain early in the season.

News and Notes

Player Updates:

• Antonio Gates: Optimistic about playing in the season opener, but Virgil Green is currently listed as the starter. ([12:27]-[12:36])

• Josh Gordon: Managed under a pitch count due to hamstring issues, potentially limiting his Week 1 performance. ([12:36]-[13:19])

• Adrian Peterson: Expected to start for Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals. ([13:19]-[13:39])

• Rex Burkhead: Reporting that he will be "eased into the mix" for the Patriots, raising concerns about his Week 1 effectiveness. ([13:39]-[14:06])

• Rule 86 – Jalen Samuels: Introduced as a guideline stating that if Jalen Samuels is healthy and playing, fantasy managers should start him due to his high value at the tight end position. ([14:37]-[14:39])

• George Kittle: Expected to start for the 49ers but faces a tough matchup against Minnesota. Some hosts consider holding off on starting him immediately. ([15:02]-[15:17])

• Saints Waive Boston Scott: Narrowing their running back options to Alvin Kamara and Mike Gillislee, impacting fantasy decisions. ([19:51]-[20:20])

Fantasy Forecast: Week 1 Matchups

The hosts provide in-depth analyses of several key Week 1 NFL matchups, offering strategic advice for fantasy football managers.

1. Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

• Analysis:

  • Jason Moore: Predicts Ravens as 7.5-point favorites over the Bills with an over/under of 40.5. Highlights Nathan Peterman's challenging matchup against Baltimore's defense. ([20:46]-[21:07])

• Fantasy Advice:

  • Mike Wright: Recommends starting Robbie Anderson over Kelvin Benjamin due to matchup considerations. ([21:07]-[22:50])
  • Andy Holloway: Questions the offensive output of the Bills against a strong Ravens defense but acknowledges Calvin Benjamin's volume: "He'll get the volume if I can find another player to start over him." ([22:30]-[22:50])

2. Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• Analysis:

  • Jason Moore: Colts are slight favorites by 1.5 points against the Bengals. Emphasizes the Colts' weak run defense, making Joe Mixon a valuable fantasy asset. ([25:02]-[26:15])

• Fantasy Advice:

  • Jason Moore: Strongly recommends Joe Mixon as a top RB choice: "There's a decent chance Joe Mixon’s the rushing leader after week one." ([57:37]-[58:24])
  • Andy Holloway: Chooses Andy Dalton as his QB start, anticipating a productive outing against the Colts. ([56:31]-[59:38])

3. Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans

• Analysis:

  • Jason Moore: Titans are 1.5-point favorites with a 45-point over/under. Discusses the Dolphins' revamped offense and challenges with their wide receivers. ([29:07]-[34:47])

• Fantasy Advice:

  • Mike Wright: Suggests starting Lamar Miller over Rex Burkhead due to the Titans' offensive line issues: "He's going to have at least 20 carries in this game and be a force for your fantasy team." ([43:56]-[46:21])
  • Andy Holloway: Advocates for Kenya Drake, emphasizing his role and matchup: "He is a solid running back. And I want to give you confidence because if there's...." ([60:00]-[61:30])

4. San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings

• Analysis:

  • Jason Moore: Vikings are 6.5-point favorites. Discusses the 49ers' running backs Matt Breida and Alfred Morris, and the wide receiver matchup between Marquis Goodwin and Pierre Garcon. ([35:14]-[38:27])

• Fantasy Advice:

  • Jason Moore: Recommends Pierre Garcon over Marquis Goodwin for consistent receiving opportunities: "I would go with the big play versus the volume." ([37:12]-[38:41])
  • Andy Holloway: Prefers Garcon due to the Vikings' strong cornerback coverage limiting Goodwin's potential: "I would rather take the guy who doesn't have the lockdown Corner on him." ([38:27]-[38:41])

5. Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots

• Analysis:

  • Jason Moore: Patriots are 6.5-point favorites with a 51-point over/under. Predicts a closer game than the odds suggest, owing to the Patriots' evolving defense under Bill Belichick and the Texans' offensive struggles. ([41:30]-[46:21])

• Fantasy Advice:

  • Jason Moore: Recommends DeSean Watson, Lamar Miller, and DeAndre Hopkins, considering the Patriots' defensive adjustments and Houston's offensive line issues: "He doesn't spend his contract money... that's why this last contract where they bumped it all up." ([42:12]-[46:21])
  • Andy Holloway: Suggests starting Lamar Miller over Rex Burkhead for better Week 1 performance: "I would play Lamar Miller over Burkhead." ([44:05]-[46:21])

Starts of the Week

The hosts share their recommended starting players across various positions for Week 1, providing strategic picks based on matchups, player health, and potential performance.

Quarterbacks:

• Jason Moore: Drew Brees (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

  • Reasoning: Favorable home matchup and reliance on short passing game.
  • Quote: "This is a home run. Easy start of the week." ([53:53]-[54:37])

• Andy Holloway: Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals)

  • Reasoning: Improved Bengals offense and favorable matchup against the Colts.
  • Quote: "Andy Dalton, you know, look, he's going to throw two touchdowns and if he rushes a touchdown." ([56:31]-[59:38])

• Mike Wright: Philip Rivers (Arizona Cardinals)

  • Reasoning: Strong matchup against the Chiefs' weak secondary and solid offensive support.
  • Quote: "Philip Rivers is a top 10 guy. Easy for me this week." ([57:01]-[57:29])

Running Backs:

• Jason Moore: Joe Mixon (Cincinnati Bengals)

  • Reasoning: High volume against an ineffective Colts run defense.
  • Quote: "Joe Mixon is going to receive more than 20 carries in this game and be a force for your fantasy team." ([57:37]-[58:24])

• Andy Holloway: Kenya Drake (Miami Dolphins)

  • Reasoning: Solid role and favorable matchup, providing reliable performance.
  • Quote: "He is a solid running back. And I want to give you confidence because if there's..." ([60:00]-[61:30])

• Mike Wright: Alex Collins (Baltimore Ravens)

  • Reasoning: Strong matchup and high usage against the Bills.
  • Quote: "The game script will be very positive for Alex Collins." ([61:44]-[62:23])

Wide Receivers:

• Jason Moore: Chris Hogan (New England Patriots)

  • Reasoning: Locked in as a primary target with a favorable matchup.
  • Quote: "He's a top 12 guy this week." ([62:38]-[62:58])

• Andy Holloway: Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals)

  • Reasoning: Home advantage and favorable matchup with Sam Bradford's presence.
  • Quote: "He's going to be a phenomenal start." ([62:59]-[64:05])

• Mike Wright: Golden Tate (Detroit Lions)

  • Reasoning: Benefiting from a weak Lions secondary and favorable pass routes.
  • Quote: "Golden Tate I believe is a great play this week." ([64:43]-[64:56])

Tight Ends:

• Jason Moore: David and Joku (Cleveland Browns)

  • Reasoning: Strong preseason performance and expected opportunities in a potentially high-scoring game.
  • Quote: "David and Joku is going to have a lot of opportunity." ([64:56]-[67:16])

• Andy Holloway: Tyler Ifert (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

  • Reasoning: Healthy and favorable matchup against the Colts, expected to be a primary target in the red zone.
  • Quote: "Tyler Ifert is a great player." ([67:14]-[67:27])

• Mike Wright: O.J. Howard (New England Patriots)

  • Reasoning: Preferred over Ebron due to better matchup and team strategy.
  • Quote: "I'll play O.J. Howard over Ebron." ([67:36]-[69:04])

Kickers:

• Jason Moore: Matt Prater (Detroit Lions)
  • Reasoning: Reliable kicker with a favorable home matchup.
  • Quote: "Take it easy week one and don't be a hater. Lock it in at home with the Lions. Matt Prater." ([69:04]-[69:37])

Conclusion

The hosts wrap up the episode by reiterating the importance of staying updated through their website and social media channels for ongoing fantasy football advice. They emphasize the value of their "starts of the week" segments and encourage listeners to engage with their tools and platforms for the best fantasy football strategies.

Notable Quotes:

• Jason Moore on Lev Bell: "We're all dads, all of us have children and we tell our children your decisions have consequences." ([04:48])

• Andy Holloway on Team Chemistry: "There's animosity, there's bad blood. The arrow is pointing down on the whole situation." ([07:23])

• Mike Wright on Fantasy Strategy: "What can I live with as a fantasy football player?" ([08:11])

• Jason Moore on Joe Mixon: "There's a decent chance Joe Mixon’s the rushing leader after week one." ([57:37])

• Andy Holloway on Larry Fitzgerald: "He's going to be a phenomenal start." ([62:59])

Overall Insights:

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of critical Week 1 matchups and player statuses, with a strong emphasis on strategic fantasy football decisions. The in-depth discussion on Le'Veon Bell's uncertain status serves as a pivotal point, highlighting the complexities fantasy managers face when dealing with real-life NFL contract negotiations and team dynamics. The hosts offer actionable advice, supported by data and personal insights, ensuring that listeners are well-equipped to navigate the challenges of the fantasy football season kickoff.

For more detailed rankings and tools, visit thefantasyfootballers.com and join their fantasy football community.