Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "Starts of the Week, Wk 9 Matchups, Facturate!"

Release Date: November 1, 2018
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

1. News and Updates

Lev Bell and the Steelers' Holdout

The hosts delve into the ongoing situation with Lev Bell, the tight end for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who has been holding out for a new contract. Andy Holloway initiates the discussion, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding Bell's status:

"[05:07] Andy Holloway: November 13th is the last day that he can report and still be eligible to play this season and still be a free agent next year."

Jason Moore weighs in on the potential outcomes, expressing skepticism about the Steelers extending another franchise tender without Bell showing up:

"[06:11] Jason Moore: To say, okay, love Bell, we're going to do what you held out from. It would take away their franchise tag from being able to actually utilize it."

The trio concludes that if Bell continues his holdout past the deadline, the Steelers might franchise tag him again, but this move would likely sour the relationship between Bell and the team, impacting fantasy owners who have stashed him.

2. Fantasy Forecast: Week 9 Matchups

The hosts provide in-depth analyses of six key matchups, focusing on over/under points, defensive strengths, and player performance trends to guide fantasy football decisions.

a. Steelers (4-2-1) vs. Ravens (4-4)

• Over/Under: 47.5 points
• Betting Line: Ravens are 3-point home favorites.

Key Insights:

• Tight Ends: Vance McDonald is a gamble due to fluctuating snap counts.

  "[12:57] Andy Holloway: It's a bit of roulette at the tight end position outside of the top options."

• Wide Receivers: John Brown emerges as a valuable start against a Steelers defense that struggles against deep targets.

  "[14:25] Andy Holloway: John Brown is easily my favorite start from the Ravens."

Conclusion: Both hosts lean towards the Ravens winning the game, citing Baltimore's stronger defensive capabilities and Big Ben's limited performance on the road.

b. Bears (4-3) vs. Bills (2-6)

• Over/Under: 37.5 points
• Betting Line: Bears are 10-point favorites.

Key Insights:

• Running Backs: LaShawn McCoy is deemed unreliable, averaging only 7.5 fantasy points per game.

  "[15:10] Andy Holloway: The Bears haven't allowed a rushing touchdown the entire season."

• Defense: The Bears' defense has been exceptional against the rushing game but vulnerable against quarterbacks, making their matchup against top-tier QBs a fantasy advantage.

Conclusion: The focus is on avoiding the Bills' running backs outside of LaShawn McCoy and capitalizing on the Bears' defensive strengths by targeting their quarterbacks and wide receivers.

c. Buccaneers (3-4) vs. Panthers (5-2)

• Over/Under: 55 points
• Betting Line: Panthers are 6.5-point home favorites.

Key Insights:

• Quarterbacks: Ryan Fitzpatrick is recommended as a safe start against a Panthers defense that has been conceding multiple touchdowns per game to QBs.

  "[24:00] Jason Moore: I think Russell Wilson is gonna have a really solid week."

• Wide Receivers: DJ Moore is praised for his potential explosive performance, supported by the Panthers' willingness to involve him more in the offense.

Conclusion: The Panthers' potent offense, led by Cam Newton, combined with their defensive vulnerabilities, presents lucrative opportunities for fantasy players to target their quarterbacks and wide receivers.

d. Chiefs (7-1) vs. Browns (2-5-1)

• Over/Under: 51.5 points
• Betting Line: Browns are 8.5-point underdogs.

Key Insights:

• Running Backs: Nick Chubb is highlighted as a must-start due to his heavy workload and the Browns' favorable matchup against the Chiefs' defense.

  "[51:02] Jason Moore: Nick Chubb has two weeks in a row of 18 carries. That is fantastic."

• Quarterbacks: Despite the presence of Baker Mayfield, the Browns' offensive struggles make them a risky fantasy option.

Conclusion: Chubb's high usage and the Chiefs' defensive weaknesses against the run make the Browns' running back a valuable fantasy asset for this matchup.

e. Jets (3-5) vs. Dolphins (4-4)

• Over/Under: 45 points
• Betting Line: Dolphins are 3-point home favorites.

Key Insights:

• Running Backs: Kenyon Drake stands out with increased involvement due to injuries in the Dolphins' wide receiver corps.

  "[35:37] Jason Moore: ...I'm definitely going to be starting Kenyon Drake."

• Wide Receivers: Devonte Parker is recommended over other Jets' receivers due to his enhanced target share against a Dolphins defense that has been porous against receivers.

  "[39:44] Jason Moore: ...I think Parker is one of those players you have to take the shot with."

Conclusion: The Dolphins' defense against running backs and receivers opens opportunities for Drake and Parker to deliver solid fantasy performances.

f. Lions (3-4) vs. Vikings (4-1)

• Over/Under: 49.5 points
• Betting Line: Vikings are 4.5-point favorites.

Key Insights:

• Wide Receivers: Marvin Jones is a key target against the Vikings' run-stopping defense.

  "[42:27] Mike Wright: ...DJ Moore, he is a very good play."

• Running Backs: Latavius Murray is favored to exploit the Lions' struggling run defense.

  "[44:31] Jason Moore: I think Latavius is a safe play."

Conclusion: The Vikings' strong defense against the run and balanced offense provides favorable conditions for their wide receivers and running backs to excel in fantasy leagues.

3. Starts of the Week

The hosts share their personal recommendations for starting players across various positions, emphasizing value picks and high-ceiling options.

a. Quarterbacks

• Jason Moore: Recommends Russell Wilson despite mixed performances, citing a favorable matchup against the Chiefs.

  "[45:50] Jason Moore: ...Russell Wilson is gonna have a really solid week."

• Andy Holloway: Chooses Ryan Fitzpatrick against Carolina, anticipating a high-scoring game favoring Fitzpatrick's involvement.

  "[48:53] Andy Holloway: ...Ryan Fitzpatrick with the weapons and Carolina giving up at least two per game is a nice start."

• Mike Wright: Opts for Alex Smith against the Falcons, leveraging the Chiefs' defense struggles against quarterbacks.

  "[49:06] Mike Wright: My start of the week is Alex Smith taking on the Atlanta Falcons."

b. Running Backs

• Jason Moore: Picks Nick Chubb from the Browns for his high carry count and favorable matchup.

  "[51:24] Jason Moore: ...Nick Chubb has two weeks in a row of 18 carries."

• Andy Holloway: Selects Matt Burrito from the Raiders, predicting high usage against Oakland.

  "[52:07] Andy Holloway: Matt Burrito set a season high in carries last week... he's my start of the week."

• Mike Wright: Chooses Isaiah Crowell from the Jets, anticipating a monster game against Miami's weak run defense.

  "[53:24] Mike Wright: ...Isaiah Crowell up against Miami. This is a monster game."

c. Wide Receivers

• Jason Moore: Advises starting John Brown from the Ravens, expecting a strong performance against the Steelers' defense.

  "[53:52] Jason Moore: John Brown has been better at home... I'm going to make him my start of the week."

• Andy Holloway: Recommends Julian Edelman from the Patriots, anticipating a productive game against the Packers.

  "[54:56] Andy Holloway: Julian Edelman is owning the middle of the field..."

• Mike Wright: Supports DJ Moore from the Panthers, highlighting his increased targets and explosive potential.

  "[55:24] Mike Wright: DJ Moore... his ceiling is monstrous."

d. Tight Ends

• Jason Moore: Continues to endorse David and Joku from the Browns despite previous setbacks.

  "[56:27] Jason Moore: ...I am going so hard at the Browns."

• Andy Holloway: Advocates for O.J. Howard from the Patriots, capitalizing on Carolina's weak defense against tight ends.

  "[57:53] Andy Holloway: O.J. Howard against Carolina... he's an athletic freak."

4. Facturate! Segment

A lighthearted segment where the hosts share amusing facts or trivia, often intertwining them with playful banter. In this episode, they humorously discuss name nicknames and personal anecdotes, adding a fun twist to the show's end.

5. Key Takeaways and Conclusions

• Matchup Analysis: Understanding defensive strengths and weaknesses is crucial for optimizing fantasy lineups. Emphasizing matchups where defenses are vulnerable can lead to significant gains.

• Player Selection: Balancing safe picks with high-ceiling players is essential, especially during bye weeks and injury-ridden periods.

• Start Recommendations: Following the hosts' starts of the week can provide valuable insights, but always consider personal league dynamics and roster depths.

• Flexibility and Adaptability: Staying updated on player statuses, such as injuries and holdouts, and being ready to pivot your strategy is vital for maintaining a competitive edge.

Notable Quotes

• Jason Moore on the Importance of Week 9:

  "[03:14] Jason Moore: ...this is probably the most important show of all time..."

• Andy Holloway on Nick Chubb:

  "[51:24] Jason Moore: Nick Chubb has two weeks in a row of 18 carries. That is fantastic."

• Jason Moore on John Brown:

  "[53:52] Jason Moore: ...John Brown has been better at home and is an air yards master."

• Andy Holloway on Ryan Fitzpatrick:

  "[48:53] Andy Holloway: ...Ryan Fitzpatrick with the weapons and Carolina giving up at least two per game is a nice start."

This episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast offers comprehensive insights into Week 9 matchups, strategic player starts, and dynamic fantasy forecasts, equipping listeners with the knowledge to enhance their fantasy football performance.