The Overreaction Episode + AB News, Free Agency Updates

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: The Overreaction Episode + AB News, Free Agency Updates
Release Date: March 12, 2019
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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1. Episode Introduction

The Fantasy Footballers kicked off the episode with enthusiasm, highlighting the rapid developments in the free agency landscape. Mike Wright emphasized the constant influx of free agent signings, stating, "Every moment that goes by, another free agent signing to be is announced on Twitter." [01:16]

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2. Free Agency Updates

a. Antonio Brown's Move to the Raiders

A significant portion of the episode was dedicated to Antonio Brown's trade to the Oakland Raiders. The hosts debated whether Brown would surpass JuJu Smith-Schuster in fantasy value.

• Jason Moore lauded the Ultimate Draft Kit, promoting it as an essential tool for fantasy players, complete with sleepers, busts, injury updates, and full projections. [00:04]

• Mike Wright pointed out Brown's potential impact, mentioning, "Antonio Brown… he's going to be a top five tight end next year." [03:05]

b. Case Keenum to the Redskins

Case Keenum was traded to the Washington Redskins for minimal returns. The discussion centered on whether Keenum would secure the starting quarterback position over Colt McCoy.

• Andy Holloway speculated, "I think Case Keenum ends up the starter for 16 games with Washington." [11:25]

c. Running Back Contracts

The episode touched on the Kansas City Chiefs signing Carlos Hyde and the implications for Damian Williams.

• Mike Wright analyzed the Chiefs' running back situation, stating, "I never thought Damian Williams was a 1. I have him around probably RB 15 through 18." [12:15]

• Brooks countered, asserting, "I think Damian Williams is locked in as a running back." [13:19]

d. Other Free Agency News

• Frank Gore's one-year deal with the Buffalo Bills was discussed, highlighting his longevity in the NFL. [15:34]

• Danny Amendola's signing with Detroit was mentioned, with Mike Wright noting, "Danny Amendola, best case scenario for him. They need a slot receiver." [16:06]

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3. Main Topic: The Overreaction Episode

The core of the episode revolved around identifying and analyzing players who have been subject to overreactions—either overly positive or negative—in the fantasy football community.

a. Antonio Brown vs. JuJu Smith-Schuster

The hosts debated whether drafting Antonio Brown over JuJu Smith-Schuster was an overreaction.

• Brooks favored Brown, citing his extensive experience and target volume: "Antonio Brown, the target volume. Yes, he's a little bit older… he was still in most scoring formats, the number two wide receiver in fantasy football last year." [08:16]

• Mike Wright expressed skepticism about JuJu being overhyped, stating, "JuJu is a hashtag player… he's not going to be able to move outside and do that. He's going to face completely different coverages." [24:52]

• Andy Holloway supported JuJu, emphasizing his potential increase in targets and red-zone opportunities: "Juju is one of the most dominant wide receivers in the league who is at an age where he is only getting better." [28:33]

Conclusion: The hosts recognized varying perspectives on Brown and JuJu, ultimately presenting both as viable options depending on team strategy and draft position.

b. Devonta Freeman

Devonta Freeman was highlighted as a player being written off too early.

• Brooks argued against Freeman's declining draft position, noting his age and potential resurgence: "It's absolutely outrageous to me that a guy who's just a couple years removed from being an absolute dominant force in fantasy football is being drafted there like he's being written off." [38:38]

• Mike Wright emphasized Freeman's role in a revamped Falcons offense: "Devonta Freeman could be put in a position where maybe you've had some bad fortune. Tevin Coleman's cleared the way. Even if he was in a timeshare role and an offense that was very good, that's enough." [39:38]

c. Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen was discussed as an overreaction candidate due to his fluctuating performance.

• Mike Wright critiqued the overreaction to Thielen's decline, attributing it to offensive line issues rather than his abilities: "I think the overreaction has been staunch. It's been big. People were burned by him. People have scars from the playoff run." [41:07]

• Andy Holloway agreed, asserting Thielen's continued dominance: "Adam Thielen is just a dominant wide receiver in his prime. So I'm just going to trust that he's great because he's been great and will continue to be great." [44:47]

d. Carson Wentz

Carson Wentz was examined as a player who shouldn't be overreacted against despite a challenging season.

• Andy Holloway defended Wentz's efficiency and potential: "Carson Wentz was pretty darn good. I mean, right now, in the best ball ADPs that I checked, he's going as the quarterback 13 or 15." [46:20]

• Mike Wright highlighted Wentz's strengths, especially his touchdown-to-interception ratio: "The biggest problem with Carson Wentz is on the ground, right? But he has a great touchdown throw. He's an efficient quarterback." [48:45]

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4. Other Player Updates

The hosts briefly touched upon other player movements and signings, including:

• DeSean Jackson leaving the Broncos and his potential impact on the Tampa Bay offense.

• Jameson Crowder's move to the Jets and its implications for Robbie Anderson and Quincy Enunwa.

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5. Conclusions and Recommendations

The Fantasy Footballers concluded the episode by reinforcing the importance of not overreacting to short-term performances and focusing on long-term consistency and potential.

• Mike Wright encouraged listeners to utilize the Ultimate Draft Kit for comprehensive analysis: "Ultimate Draft Kit is the only wingman you'll need this year." [00:04]

• Andy Holloway and Brooks urged fantasy managers to trust in players' proven abilities and not be swayed by temporary setbacks or hype.

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Notable Quotes

• Mike Wright: "Antonio Brown is going to have Derek Carr under his little finger and he's going to get the 160 targets." [33:33]

• Brooks: "It's absolutely outrageous to me that a guy who's just a couple years removed from being an absolute dominant force in fantasy football is being drafted there." [38:38]

• Andy Holloway: "Adam Thielen is just a dominant wide receiver in his prime. So I'm just going to trust that he's great because he's been great and will continue to be great." [44:47]

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Final Thoughts

This episode offered insightful analyses on key free agency moves and delved deep into understanding and identifying overreactions in fantasy football. By balancing enthusiasm with critical evaluation, the Fantasy Footballers provided valuable guidance to help listeners make informed decisions for their fantasy teams.

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For more detailed discussions and updates, listeners are encouraged to follow the Fantasy Footballers on Twitter @the_ffballers and visit their website at jointhefoot.com.

Transcript

[Jason Moore]

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to crush, humiliate, and totally destroy your competition in your Fantasy Football draft. It's incredibly simple. So let me just break it down. Ultimate Draft Kit. The Ultimate Draft Kit for the Fantasy Footballers is hands down the best fantasy tool in existence. I mean, come on, it's got sleepers, it's got busts, injury updates, full projections. This thing's even got full Dynasty rankings. Don't overthink this. It's the only wingman you'll need this year. Head over to ultimate draftkin.com and grab your copy right away.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from Pristine Auction.com Studios with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome in. Mike is doing the Vance dance.

[Brooks]

Let's go, Vance.

[Mike Wright]

It's that time of year. Welcome back to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike the fantasy Hitman. Right? It is Tuesday, March 12th. We are recording this the afternoon of March 11th. And every moment that goes by, another free agent signing to be is announced on Twitter. So we will cover as much as we can today. I'm just letting the people know we only have so much information as of this moment in time.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. Just one quick correction. Every moment that goes by is a moment that I feel like news should be breaking. Like I'm itching right now, and it's literally, we have to wait at least it feels like probably 15 minutes between each actual piece of news, and that's way too long for me.

[Brooks]

And just to update everyone, as terribly as last year's off season, the free agency, the draft, as terribly as that went for my Dynasty team, so far, we are on the complete opposite side of the spectrum. So thanks everyone. I appreciate your well wishes. My team's.

[Mike Wright]

I think I feel like my team's feeling better. You're gloating about nothing, but that's why Dynasty is great. I was gonna say that if you are not in a dynasty or keeper league and cannot enjoy the fact that the smallest bits of news can give you a reason to smile.

[Brooks]

Like, no one is excited about Danny Amendola signing in Detroit. No one. Except for me. Yes, I am ecstatic.

[Mike Wright]

He's on your Dynasty roster. Also, no one's excited about Jesse James going to Detroit except for me. Because you have Vance McDonald.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll be. I'll be honest. This has been the. I don't want to say this, but this has been such a good off season for Vance McDonald. Are you kidding me? The vacated targets there and his need plus opportunity plus Talent.

[Brooks]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Vance could totally legit.

[Brooks]

Welcome aboard.

[Andy Holloway]

Could be a top five tight end next year.

[Brooks]

Always roam at the Vance dance party. Always room.

[Andy Holloway]

I just got to get past Andy. He's the bouncer at the door. It's like. No, no. Full vacant fog.

[Mike Wright]

You guys understand. I mean, this is why this show is what it is. The reason I'm agonizing, the reason I have bitter beer face over here is because in the middle of last season, I traded Vance McDonald for C.J. uzama.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, good news. C.J. usama resigned with the Bengals for three more years. Congrats.

[Mike Wright]

I was, I was pushing for a second straight title. Things haven't worked out in my favor and I have Gronk about to retire any moment, I'm sure.

[Brooks]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

All right. Today's show, a big one. We're talking all about Antonio Brown. That's been the headline news. We haven't had a chance to weigh in. Antonio Brown signing with or traded to the Oakland, soon to be Las Vegas Raiders. And we're going to get into the weeds with that deal. This is the overreaction episode. We're going to talk about players that we believe there's an overreaction happening one way or another. I polled the foot clan about 10 minutes ago and you know, that got a lot of the rookies right. The dk, Metcalf, Kyle or Murray situation, but players that performed in a big time way last year that. I'm looking over here.

[Brooks]

What just happened on the YouTube?

[Andy Holloway]

Brooks.

[Mike Wright]

I'm looking at Brooks.

[Brooks]

He put on the film. The war filter.

[Mike Wright]

No, that was the nuclear holocaust filter. I'm clueless. Does it happen on your end too, Brooks? Yeah. Oh, that's dangerous.

[Andy Holloway]

Uh oh.

[Mike Wright]

So we look over at the monitors and suddenly the sun, like a thousand suns shines in.

[Brooks]

It's like the end of the movie. Oh, crap. And terrible reference.

[Mike Wright]

Like the end of the movie.

[Brooks]

Oh, the. The solar movie reference. Sucking.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, mercy, that's.

[Mike Wright]

Hold on. Go ahead and Google that one for us.

[Brooks]

I'll figure it out. Because it's so good.

[Andy Holloway]

The solar movie.

[Brooks]

The movie. The movie ends.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no.

[Brooks]

By him opening up the shields in space and allowing the sun to cremate him.

[Mike Wright]

Sounds like a doozy.

[Andy Holloway]

And the movie title is.

[Brooks]

We're working on that. I'll be back.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

But the overreaction episode is not Sunshine.

[Mike Wright]

That's the name of the movie you couldn't remember.

[Brooks]

I know I couldn't remember the end, man.

[Andy Holloway]

But it's named Sunshine, which is the whole point.

[Mike Wright]

Like A lot of sunshine.

[Brooks]

All right, we got there.

[Andy Holloway]

Moving on. I think I've never heard of that movie.

[Brooks]

That's too bad. It's great.

[Andy Holloway]

Sounds real memorable. Mike, it's great. But the overreaction episode here, this is not us overreacting to the breaking news. This is us stopping.

[Mike Wright]

That would be a really crappy episode.

[Andy Holloway]

That would be. That would be unhelpful for your fantasy. This is players who we see either in data or whether we know, you know, from history that the fantasy community is going to overreact upon good or bad to their performances last year and us saying, you know, let's, let's be a little bit wiser, let's be smart with our fantasy picks.

[Mike Wright]

All right, follow us on twitter @the ffballers, at Andy Holloway, at Jason FFL@ff hitman YouTube.com the fantasy footballers instagram.com fantasy footballers let's get into the quick question. It's a simple one. We'll talk all about Antonio Brown. He was traded. Which wide receivers are you taking first in redraft? Which one? Antonio Brown or juju? Smith, Schuster, you guys weigh in.

[Brooks]

Yeah, this is going to be a big hot topic of debate. And honestly, I think I'm still taking Antonio Brown first as of right now. I get that juju is the new hotness. He succeeded in very extravagant fashion when Antonio Brown was out. Juju was great. But that's still a really small sample size. You're talking three games, four games. I can't remember off the top of my head. I know. Three. Is it three?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Brooks]

Matt Harmon, who does the reception perception, he has started charting these players for the ultimate draft kit and he made the comment these guys might as well be playing two different positions the way the coverage that they got last year. So in inferring that Antonio Brown is getting much, much stronger defense against him, like a lot of more. More double coverage, things like that.

[Mike Wright]

A lot of more.

[Brooks]

I'm on fire today.

[Andy Holloway]

Playing on the outside versus juju played a lot of his snaps.

[Brooks]

Can juju actually still dominate when he has to inherit all of that coverage for a full 16 game season?

[Mike Wright]

I'm taking Antonio Brown. I'll reserve most of my comments for our overreaction portion because I will talk about juju. But yes, Antonio Brown, the target volume. Look, this is the defending leader of in touchdowns last season. Yes, he's a little bit older. Yes, there's been a lot of this, you know, all the haze around the situation that kind of muddies the water as far as maybe what you thought about him and used to think about him and what he was in fantasy. This was still in most scoring formats, the number two wide receiver in fantasy football last year. And he's going to a team that'll feed him the rock. And Mike, you brought it up before Michael Crabtree. He's had a great year under Derek Card. I think Antonio Brown is the pick.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's a great question because it's both timely and it involves two of our overreaction guys and it will go.

[Brooks]

Back and forth depending on your draft. I don't think there's a definitive answer.

[Andy Holloway]

We will talk a little bit deeper as to our rationale. Why, as the episode goes on, I am. I am a fan of Antonio Brown on the Raiders and I am still taking juju and we'll talk about that later. Andy is going to try to dissuade me, I believe, from overreacting on juju. I get the argument that he has never been the one, that he has gotten the softer coverage, that he has played in the slot and all of those things. But I did this last year with juju where I watched the team talent, how much I loved him and I was, you know, but the metrics didn't support it. And so I didn't make him my. My guy, even though I was so, you know, he really was in my heart, just one of my, my absolute, you know, guys that I, you know, kind of my brand.

[Brooks]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

And I'm not doing it again this year. His opportunity is going to come and his talent, he's as talented as any wide receiver in the league. So if he's now the one, he'll beat whatever coverage rolls, I believe.

[Mike Wright]

Who are you taking? Antonio Brown or you? Juju? Okay. All right. You can preorder the 2019 Ultimate Draft Kit@ultimate draft kit.com. make sure you check that out. We're also giving away a signed Michael thomas [e-mail] let's talk news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league presented by Sleeper.

[Mike Wright]

I want to preface this by saying, look, this is not an exhaustive list. In fact, by. By the time you listen to this show, there will probably be a handful of other players that have signed a lot of rumors. Maybe we'll have information about Le'Veon Bell and as of right now, we don't. And we'll talk exhaustively about every significant signing on Thursday, the ones we don't cover today. But let's start here with Case Keenum, traded to the Redskins for basically Nothing. The Broncos are going to move forward with Joe Flacco, Case Keenum, he'll compete with Colt McCoy for that starting job. You imagine that the Redskins will add a rookie and we'll see who can rise to the top of that team. They just signed Landon Collins on the defensive side of the football. What Any thoughts about Case Keenum? Is he going to end up the starter? I mean, there are dynasty leagues, there are two quarterback leagues where you need to identify who's the starter there.

[Brooks]

So they swapped what, six and seventh round picks next year? And on top of that, the Washington only has to pay, I think half of his salary. It's going to really suck for Case Keenan when he gets beat up by Colt McCoy.

[Mike Wright]

It could happen.

[Brooks]

That's what I think.

[Andy Holloway]

It could happen. I'm not saying that's not in the realm of possibility, but I think Case Keenum ends up the starter for 16 games with Washington.

[Mike Wright]

Sixteen games?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. I think he plays the whole season.

[Mike Wright]

Wouldn't be an off season without Jason Moore loving Case Keenum. Chiefs have signed Carlos Hyde to a 1 year 2.8 million dollar. He'll actually be a bigger cap hit than Damian Williams. But when you look at the grand scheme of things, it's difficult to ascertain. My initial reaction and Mike, you're a Damian Williams owner.

[Brooks]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

There's been so much talk about Damian Williams. He's a perfect candidate for an overreaction episode as well. But my first reaction was this is best case scenario for Damian Williams. Right. Carlos Hyde.

[Brooks]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

He's kind of beyond his prime and hasn't made a big impact. Doesn't catch the ball well. Carlos Hyde coming in, not a big deal. That being said, we have seen a very interesting progression over the last few years where I don't think that this necessarily removes Kansas City from looking at a running back in the draft as well. We saw Jerick McKinnon was going to be the guy and then it was like, okay, well AD Latavius Murray, oh wait now we also drafted Dalvin Cook. That happened a couple years ago. Jerick McKinnon, the perfect comp for the Damian Williams situation. Looks like he's going to be the guy. Carlos Hyde could also theoretically take away some of the goal line work from Damian Williams. I'd still rather have the pass catching back in Kansas City. I was never thinking, I never thought Damian Williams was a 1. I have him around probably RB 15 through 18.

[Brooks]

I still think that Damian Williams is. I think he's secured as a one now. I don't disagree that they'll draft a fantasy one. Yes, I think he'll be, I think he will be a running back one now because I firmly believe it's his job. Carlos Hyde to me is about as good as maybe a little bit better than Spencer Ware. And at this point in his career and we've seen the long term history of Andy Reid. Andy Reid, yes. Carlos Hyde will touch the ball, he'll get on the field. I'm not saying that's that. He's that Damian Williams was getting 90% of the touches but Andy Reid prefers to use one guy predominantly. So you're talking that 65% range which is fantastic in today's NFL for a running back timeshare. Add on top of that he'll be in either the first or second highest scoring offense in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes. I think Damian Williams is locked in as a running back.

[Mike Wright]

Wow, that's profound. Jason, where are you at?

[Andy Holloway]

I agree with parts of what both of you are saying. It's best realistic case for Damian Williams. Right. Because best case would have been they don't bring anybody in and that's impossible. They were going to bring people in. Bringing in a 29 year old Carlos Hyde is great because he's good enough to keep them from putting a lot of capital. You know, if they went after a day two running back I'd be surprised. Now I wouldn't have been earlier. But he's not good enough to just supplant and all of a sudden in camp it's going to be like oh dude, it's have you seen this Carlos Hyde guy? You know, so Damian Williams I think is the lead back but I don't see him as a top 12. I'm with Andy that, you know, 15 to 17, that range and Carlos Hyde becomes an important, an important late season.

[Mike Wright]

There's a lot of type at a minimum I think there's a lot of risk to Damian Williams. I think if you're picking, let's say you did have him in that top 12 range. I don't see anybody riskier than Damian Williams in that group.

[Brooks]

I won't necessarily disagree with that. But with that risk comes, I mean great responsibility. Yes, comes great responsibility but comes top five upside. The running back for Andy Reid is always incredibly valuable.

[Mike Wright]

Frank Gore has a job.

[Brooks]

No he doesn't.

[Mike Wright]

One year, one year, $2 million contract with the Buffalo Bills just announced. Yes, he is eternal. What? Yes, Frank, he is all wow. He is Frank gore.

[Brooks]

So their two running backs as of right now are a combined 65 years old between Shady McCoy and Frank Gore. How is that possible?

[Andy Holloway]

Wow.

[Brooks]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

One year deal for Frank Gore.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you think.

[Brooks]

Great stuff.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you think this could open the door for them to release?

[Brooks]

Yeah, Shady has always been a release candidate for me.

[Mike Wright]

I don't think this opens the door.

[Brooks]

Yeah, it's already been.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, we've got Gore.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I was gonna say nobody unlocked down here.

[Mike Wright]

Nobody says, hey, I got picked up Frank Gore. We're good to go.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, I'm just. Look, another. Another feather in the cap for Dynasty because he's on my Dynasty team. I'm. I'm excited. Sure. He's not.

[Brooks]

He's got a job.

[Andy Holloway]

Not retired.

[Mike Wright]

Danny Amendola, one year, $4.5 million contract. Jesse James as well to the Lions. Danny Amendola, best case scenario for him. They need a slot receiver. There are slot receivers running all over the free agent market. Adam Humphries, Jameson Crowder, who, by the way, just signed with the Jets. It's going to be interesting to see what Amendola can do. The name's escaping me, but who. Who stepped in for Bruce Ellington? Bruce Ellington stepped in for a brief periods galore, was highly targeted in Detroit. DeSean Jackson, as of this moment of this recording, he has posted that he is done with the Bucks on Instagram, I believe he said, thanks for the time. Tampa, it didn't work out. That's what he said.

[Brooks]

It did not.

[Mike Wright]

Which we agree.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it worked out when he had fair.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So now you're looking at a Tampa offense. And I want to get your reaction, Mike, because I think heading into the offseason, we're looking at this situation with Bruce Arians and Jameis Winston and the capability of that office, the vertical passing game. But if you just remove Adam Humphries, who did have a big role, and you remove desean Jackson and you start to look at it fresh with fresh eyes. No draft yet and you say, hey, it's Mike Evans and it's Chris Godwin and it's O.J. howard. Is some of the shine off of that situation at all to you?

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Brooks]

Not as the offense as a whole.

[Mike Wright]

Correct. Losing both of those pieces.

[Brooks]

I can understand that. Maybe as. As a whole. But you get so incredibly excited for the potential of Chris Godwin. I mean, Mike Evans is a stud. Do you guys. We haven't done our full rankings yet. We're still working through them. I can't imagine Mike Evans not being in the top 12. And Chris Godwin has massive upside. He already had his Little mini breakout this past season. He's a fantastic route runner, always getting open. It's got great hands and he has the perfect coach to utilize his skill set.

[Andy Holloway]

He is a must trade for target. I've been trying to get him the last couple days with you know, the idea that those two wide receivers could be gone. He hasn't broken.

[Brooks]

Price just went up.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he hasn't broken out yet but I mean go in whatever league you're in and try to try to get Godwin because he's going to be an every week starter. He's, you know, he's going to be that caliber of a player next year. You can get them now according to.

[Mike Wright]

Mike Rodak, the oldest NFL running backs under contract for 2019. Number one, Frank Gore, 35 years old. Buffalo number two, Chris Ivory, 30 years old. Buffalo number three, Sean McCoy, 30 years old.

[Brooks]

I forgot Ivory was that buffalo.

[Andy Holloway]

They're almost 100.

[Brooks]

Hey, they got 100 years of experience Jason.

[Mike Wright]

100 year bill. Wow, that is almost 100 years of running back experience.

[Brooks]

And that is if I've learned anything about today's NFL. You need 30 year old running backs.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's what we've learned.

[Brooks]

That's the plan for success.

[Mike Wright]

CJ Uzama, 3 year, $18 million contract to return to the Bengals. Alan Hearns, they exercise the Cowboys exercise his option. He's back next year. And then Jameson Crowder. How many times this offseason are we going to hear the new Jarvis Landry for Adam Gaze comparison when it comes to oh my, Jameson Crowder and what he's going to do in the slot in New York I'd put the over.

[Andy Holloway]

Under at two per day.

[Mike Wright]

Two per day.

[Andy Holloway]

Two per day.

[Brooks]

A two per.

[Andy Holloway]

Two per as we call them in the biz.

[Brooks]

That's what they call it, a two per.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's going to be a lot. But Jameson Crowder to the jets means Quincy New almost. He's going to be moving outside or.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean one of those two will probably go outside. You could question whether they think okay, Crowder can.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, Crowder won't go outside. Zero percent chance. So you think let me played outside before and he's fine.

[Brooks]

Andy, how does this make you feel? Good.

[Andy Holloway]

Bad.

[Brooks]

Neutral. About having Robbie Anderson on your Dynasty team.

[Mike Wright]

Good.

[Brooks]

You like it?

[Mike Wright]

I just want the offense to be better. I want Adam Gayes equipped to, you know Quincy Newnois is 6 2. He's a 225 wide receiver. He, he can play out there and they want to use him More and I look, anything that gives you the opportunity to single up Robbie Anderson, we'll see. If Left Bell lands in New York, we'll see. What other weapons.

[Brooks]

Do we have numbers on the potential Crowder contract yet?

[Mike Wright]

Not that I know of.

[Brooks]

It's definitely interesting since they just locked up Quincy and if you're giving Jameson Crowder, if they felt. If they've already announced that he's coming to the team this early on in the process, you have to imagine it's. It's a good contract.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I would think it is. I mean look, what does that say for.

[Brooks]

For Anderson's long term status with the, with the New York Jets? Can you invest three high level contracts at the wide receiver?

[Mike Wright]

No, you can't. But I don't feel like they have high level contracts.

[Brooks]

Robbie's there this year. Well, Quinn. What's Quinn. Oh, look. Quinn season.

[Mike Wright]

There's a lot of money right now available. A lot of teams have cav space. There aren't a lot of talented players out there and available. Quincy and Nunois. They want to.

[Brooks]

I guess it was only a 4 year 36 for Quincy.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I was gonna say they're not huge deals. And you know Crowder will come inside. He's 59170. He'll play the slot. He can play it well if he stays healthy. The honest truth is you've got injury concerns. Anunwa and Crowder both have been banged up.

[Andy Holloway]

It looks like the jets are giving Crowder a three year 28 and a half million deal.

[Mike Wright]

That's a pretty good deal. But I think you're going to see that throughout. I think in three days we may not feel like it's that special is all I'm saying.

[Brooks]

I'm just talking in context with having to resign. Robbie and all the smoke screen of Will Levy on Bell come and eat.

[Mike Wright]

50% of their cap numb.

[Brooks]

Yeah, that's how I would eat it too.

[Mike Wright]

Here's the deal, by the way. Switch your league to. Switch your dynasty league to Sleeper. Yeah. Download the Sleeper app. It's free. Check it out. You get all the news reports. And before we move into overreactions, the main part of the show, I do want to remind you about Hulu. Okay, here's the thing. Let's say you go to a courtside game. There's pros and cons, right? You go to a courtside game. I did this years ago. Paid up for some tickets to see a playoff game. The pro is. It's the best way to watch a game. We did this earlier in the preseason. We saw a courtside game. The bad thing, you don't ever want to watch sports. It's true any other way.

[Brooks]

Especially basketball.

[Mike Wright]

It's too good. It's too nice. That's the. That's what Hulu is all about. Once you try it, you can't go back. They ruin TV for you. That is the gist of what Hulu is. And once you get it, it's ruined forever. And forever is about how long it'll take for the Knicks to win another title. Just saying.

[Brooks]

Just slamming the Knicks right now.

[Mike Wright]

Slamming the Knicks. Tons of shows. Take that, New York movies, originals, live TV. Start your free trial today. It's simple. Hulu.com, h U L U.com that's all right. I'm not gonna do what you all think I'm gonna do, which is just flip out. How you doing?

[Brooks]

You're flipping out over there. Jay, what's going on?

[Mike Wright]

You had a look on your face.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm doing great. I. I mean, I just connected the dots between that great drop and our show intro.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you talk about Tommy C. My buddy. Yeah, Tommy C. All right, overreaction time, guys. Let's go ahead and start with the two players that we talked about at the beginning of the show. Antonio Brown, Oakland Raider, JuJu Smith Schuster. When I posted real quick, 10 minutes before the show, I just threw through the who's your biggest overreaction candidates onto Twitter. Let the foot clan reply. Juju's name came up. Okay. Because you're getting a lot of it. And juju is not doing anything to stop your hype. Because he's out.

[Andy Holloway]

He's.

[Brooks]

Because he's the best man.

[Mike Wright]

He's out there tweeting about, hey, I'll give you big numbers. I'm ready, let's go. And here, here's.

[Brooks]

Juju is a player for this generation.

[Mike Wright]

He is. Oh, yeah, yeah. No doubt about it. Hashtag. He's a hashtag player.

[Brooks]

He is.

[Mike Wright]

He's a hashtag player. Here's the thing. Juju is. Juju had kind of a year last year, if you didn't know. 111 receptions, 1426 yards. Maybe you don't realize that about JuJu. Season seven touchdowns was the number nine fantasy wide receiver. I don't think Juju's going to. The overreaction concerns that I have would be ones that put JuJu Smith Schuster in the top five of all fantasy players. And I've seen this, and a lot of people think he's A top five wide receiver for next season. I disagree. I think that is an overreaction. I think that is an attempt to imbue the absence of the Antonio Brown targets and juju Smith. Schuster will be able to run wild and do anything he wanted to do. My problem with that contention is that it is very, very hard. No matter how good you are, no matter how much of a star you are. Jason, is that to repeat 1400 plus yards receiving doesn't happen if your name's not Julio Jones over the last handful of years. Nobody's done it other than Julio Jones over the last five years. Everybody else that's had these banner years, Ty Hilton, even Antonio Brown, the repeat of those seasons is very difficult. You also played a season in which Juju was in the slot, never faced double coverage. 0.8% of the routes he ran were double coverage. Antonio Brown faced that 9% of the time. And you don't have any proven commodity in James Washington right now. You don't, you don't have. You look at the Pittsburgh Steelers offense in that team. They are a worse football team today than they were before they traded in Antonio Brown. You've got issues with age and Big Ben and other things that have come to a head. You're losing Lev Bell, Antonio Brown and Now it's, Can Juju throw up 115 and 1510? Yeah, he can, but I'm not projecting that. That's kind of where I'm at with him. I think it's an overreaction to just assume that he's going to be able to move outside and do that. He's going to face completely different coverages we've never seen him face before. And I'm not a big fan of the argument that is like, I think you started the show by saying it where you're like, well, he's never been a one before. I don't really like taking the perspective of like, he's never done X so he can't do X. But at the end of the day you're going to have variables that are in the equation. I think it's too hard to just say, hey, let's throw him outside. Now he's got double coverage. Now he's running different routes. He's a guaranteed 1500 yards. I don't think he repeats what he did last year, fantasy wise. That's my point.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I've seen a lot of takes that are similar to yours in the sense that they're saying, hey, you know, hold your horses here. You can't just say, okay, well, he becomes Antonio Brown. And I, I agree with that extreme. Right. That would, that would essentially be saying, well, JuJu is the number one wide receiver off the board. He's going to be the new Antonio Brown. They're very different players. Different, stylistically different, you know, across the board. But juju is to me one of the most dominant wide receivers in the league who is at an age where he is only getting better. And now the opportunities for targets and volume and all of that, you know, goes way up. I mean you're, you're losing 168 targets and 15 touchdowns from Antonio Brown. Juju is a great red zone option and he only had seven touchdowns. So if you're telling me, okay, maybe he doesn't repeat 1400 yards, maybe he gets 1290.

[Brooks]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

But he has 12 or 13 touchdowns, he's going to be around that top five. So I, I haven't statted, you know.

[Mike Wright]

We had 166 targets. So when you say his targets and all these things are going to go way up, that part, if you just made it about the red zone, I can get on board with you. But when you say they're going to go way up, what are we talking about?

[Andy Holloway]

Antonio Brown's 16 game pace targets over the last six years on average are 180 targets. So I mean, maybe I'm not saying, you know, he's going to add on an extra hundred targets, but they're not going down and he's going to be utilized more in the red zone. There was this weird home road split. I just think, I mean, look, you are, I need to be listening to you. Right. Like if, if you're correct, that's what.

[Mike Wright]

I've been saying for years.

[Andy Holloway]

You are, you know, I'm going to draft Juju as an absolute one this year. So I'm the, I'm the audience you're speaking to right now.

[Mike Wright]

I think I. Look, he can be a one. I think when you look at what he did last year, you're talking about close to a ceiling for, for him. I mean the big number that can change is the, is the touchdown total. I don't disagree with that.

[Brooks]

It would be a big difference if he added, yeah, four on there.

[Mike Wright]

If he came down on yards and went up on that, then you're back at the 8, 9 range. That's fine. I'm seeing him. People want to put him in the top three, top five. That's, that's where the overreaction to me.

[Brooks]

Is all I hear Are numbers that speak positively for Fance McDonald.

[Andy Holloway]

So. Well, speaking of Pittsburgh Steelers, former Pittsburgh Steeler Antonio Brown is my Watch your overreactions on. I have.

[Mike Wright]

You guys remember when Nick Foles decided to pay back that $2 million 20?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, the. He paid 2 million or he paid.

[Brooks]

It to turn down the 20.

[Mike Wright]

Down the 20 million. Remember when he did that?

[Brooks]

How do you not hit the button for this?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Breaking news.

[Mike Wright]

Nick Falls is officially signing with the Jags. Four years, $88 million and 88 miles an hour.

[Andy Holloway]

Do we know how much is guaranteed? At least 60 or something. Close. That's.

[Mike Wright]

I not know that as of this moment.

[Brooks]

I don't blame.

[Mike Wright]

I know that any way you cut up $88 million is a pretty good situation.

[Brooks]

I do not blame them.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, guaranteed money is 50 million.

[Brooks]

All right. Okay.

[Mike Wright]

I would have. I would have gone in on. I think he made a mistake.

[Brooks]

I don't blame him. But it just, it. It seemed like there was no one else that Nick Foles could go to and he'll.

[Mike Wright]

They're going to release Blake Bortles.

[Brooks]

No.

[Mike Wright]

Very soon.

[Andy Holloway]

So my dynasty team cries. All right, so my overreaction candidate number one is Antonio Brown. People overreacting on the negative, okay? He goes from being the best wide receiver in the game to Derek Carr. Derek Carr has been really bad for fantasy. I mean, I know some of his numbers look like they got better, but that's because he was checked down. Charlie, this last year, you know, everything basically at the line of scrimmage. But if you think about it, two years ago, Derek Carr was an MVP candidate who had 145 targets for Michael Crabtree and 132 for Amari Cooper in the same season. And both those guys had good fantasy years. You had, you know, I think 15 touchdowns between them. So now, yeah, I know Carr was really, really bad last year. I will agree with everybody that's like, oh, man, Derek Carr is no Big Ben.

[Brooks]

He's not agreed.

[Andy Holloway]

He is not as good as Big Ben for sure. But last year you can't just look, I mean, he was throwing the ball to a 33 year old Jordy Nelson, Seth Roberts and Marcel Aitman. And I mean, it was just a trash heap. His best receiver last year was Jared Cook. I mean, in the off season last year when I had Jared Cook, I think in the top 12 tight ends, I was mocked, yes, because he's Jared Cook. But I mean, Jared Cook had 900 yards, six touchdowns and he's Jared Cook. So now you've got Antonio Brown.

[Mike Wright]

The biggest thing Jared Cook has working against him is that he's Jared Cook.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. Now you see the point. Antonio Brown is not the same as Amari Cooper. They aren't just both good, promising wide receivers. Antonio Brown is the best wide receiver in the game right now. He is arguably the second best wide receiver of all time. And he's going to a team where I think he's going to have Derek Carr under his little finger and he's going to get the 160 targets and Derek Carr is going to be Antonio Brown's puppet and he's going to say, just throw me the ball. And when he does, he's going to go, oh, this guy catches it a.

[Brooks]

Lot more than Amari.

[Andy Holloway]

Than Amari Cooper did.

[Brooks]

Can Antonio Brown overcome Greg Olson?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that's. That's going to be tough. But if there's one thing I'm pretty sure of is that Antonio Brown, how they say, runs the show. He has just orchestrated everything he wanted, got everything he wanted, and he's not going to go to Oakland and then not get everything else he wants. So, look, he's going to be down, right? But I've seen his average draft position on money leagues, on best ball games going right now is the 25th pick. That's the third round he's going.

[Brooks]

I would take him there gladly.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I would as well. I started out their car.

[Brooks]

Is that the Buffalo bump, though? Like when people got scared that he was going to Buffalo?

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe. I think he is the. The wide receiver 10 on ADP right now. And look, I've got him statted for 165 targets, 107 receptions, 1287 yards and nine touchdowns. I believe that's very doable next year for him. That would have put him ninth last year, but last year was an up year for wide receivers. It would have put him third two years ago. So I still see him locked and loaded as a wide receiver. One, this is a great landing spot for Antonio Brown. I think the very few places that would have been better for Antonio Brown to go.

[Mike Wright]

I don't think that a lot of people, their first impression of the landing spot is that it's a great landing spot. You know, if he had landed in San Francisco.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

I think people could have, you know, up and coming quarterback Kyle Shanahan. I think it's not Buffalo.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

The reaction that you got from Buffalo. But it's close, right? It's kind of the inherent reaction you have when a team struggle for a while.

[Brooks]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And I think you're right. This is not a player moving on to Oakland in the back quarter of his career. This is a player that just led the league in touchdowns. The problem will be, can Derek Carr drive the ball downfield? Even when they were winning, that was a bit of an issue. So if Derek Carr can't drive it downfield, it doesn't matter. But I'm with you. A lot of people look, some of the reactions I got on that tweet right now, Antonio Brown out of the top 10. Antonio Brown out of the top 10 with exclamation points. So I'm not sure that I think you'd cut those exclamation points off and maybe throw a question mark at the end.

[Brooks]

Yep, sure. The player I want to bring up for my first overreaction is Devonta Freeman. I think that people are writing him off too early. I completely understand that. He has been a disappointment the past two years, battling with injuries and he's been also battling my top problem with Freeman the past couple years. Targets. The targets were not coming to one of the best pass catching running backs in the league like when he was under Kyle Shanahan when, when K shy was running the show in Atlanta. Devonta Freeman was feasting on targets was the overall number one running back a year. And then Sarkeesian comes in and everything seems like it's absolutely terrible. And it wasn't just your imagination. In 2017 under Sark, they average around 18% of their target went to the running back position. And that's, that's not a death sentence. That's not certainly not where you want them. And then next year, 2018, around 14%. What are you doing, Steve Sarkeesian, I understand that Freeman wasn't playing, but you had Tevin Coleman, very capable pass catcher. Edo Smith is fine, but what were you doing with the offense? Sark is out. We don't have to live under his tyranny anymore. Dirt cutter is back and we already have a sample. We know what dirt cutter does in Atlanta and that was the running backs averaged In Dirt Cutter's three years, they averaged 22% of the targets. This is exactly what we need to to get Devonta Freeman back into the top back. Being a stud, it's rare to have.

[Mike Wright]

Predictability when you have, when you have.

[Brooks]

A new oc, a new oc.

[Mike Wright]

So I like that, yes, fantasy owners were going to grab on and by.

[Brooks]

The way, so one of the years, it was 2012 when they were still getting a high amount of targets, that was also the year that Michael Turner saw 222 attempts. So this isn't that Devonta Freeman. Now we're cutting him down to 140 attempts, but he's going to get targets.

[Mike Wright]

That's. That's my question to you, is. Is wear and tear has done something to Devonta?

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

So does the team, you know, with the talk of Vito Smith, do they draft somebody and does that. Would that change your opinion if they spend a day to pick on somebody in that. For that backfield, I would be shocked.

[Brooks]

If they spent a day to pick on. On a running back. It certainly would have to affect the way I think about things. But we always talk about new information changes how the way you see things. But right now, people on draft, they're playing basketball, and Devonta Freeman's going right around pick 31. That's behind Aaron Jones. That's behind Kerryon Johnson. And sure, we can have a debate like, will those guys finish ahead of Freeman?

[Andy Holloway]

But it's.

[Brooks]

It's absolutely outrageous to me that a guy who's just a couple years removed from being an absolute dominant force in fantasy football is being drafted there like he's. He's being written off.

[Mike Wright]

You probably know this off the top of your head, but just in case you don't, you know how old Devonta Freeman is?

[Brooks]

I think he's 27.

[Andy Holloway]

He is 27.

[Mike Wright]

He's 26. 26 years old.

[Andy Holloway]

He will be 27 this season.

[Mike Wright]

Well, that'll come after 26.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I'm. Because I know he is. He is younger than Le'Veon Bell. And I remember that. That. That surprised me when I was looking that up, because in Dynasty, Devonta Freeman, like you're saying, Mike is pretty much left for dead and Le'Veon Bell is still.

[Brooks]

And I get it. And like, I just. For people, I just traded for Freeman. And the reason I was able to get Freeman was because of the past two years.

[Mike Wright]

Well, that. And that's your opportunity.

[Brooks]

Yeah, exactly.

[Mike Wright]

And if you had the last few years and he was 30 years old, I mean, you could.

[Brooks]

That'd be a lot different.

[Mike Wright]

Compare it to, like Lashawn McCoy. You don't hear us talking a lot about him being a bargain or a steal.

[Brooks]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Because there's a lot of tread on those tires. At least Devonta Freeman could be put in a position where maybe you've had some bad fortune. Tevin Coleman's cleared the way. Even if he was in a timeshare role and an offense that was very good. That's enough.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Brooks]

And The Falcons will be once again be a very, very good offense. And you're hurt until you're not.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. I just asked Matt Forte.

[Brooks]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

All right. This was one I struggle with. I spent a lot of time thinking about it. I'm sticking with it. I think people are overreacting and I think, I think Mike, Mike is one of those people.

[Brooks]

No, no, no, no. Well, let me hear your. Your. Let you. Let's hear your argument.

[Mike Wright]

Well, here, here's the deal. I think that Adam, Adam Thielen. Okay. I think Adam Thielen, a lot of people are overreacting and they don't view him as a one or they view him behind Stefan Diggs. And they do it based on the fact that the season ended so poorly for Adam Thielen last year when he came out first half of the season, 78 receptions, 940 yards and six touchdowns, the number one wideout in fantasy. And the contention, the predominant argument, the main storyline for his decline has revolved around what a transition in philosophy on the offensive side of the football. Okay, so that's the main argument. Do you guys agree with that?

[Andy Holloway]

100%. I think that's the main argument. They changed the offensive coordinator. Now they're going to run more, pass less.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And that was evident. That did take place. I mean, when you look at the back half of the season, last three games of the year, they were passing on 52% of plays. Over the course of the whole year, there were 64%.

[Brooks]

Yeah, they were very happy to start.

[Mike Wright]

But here's what, here's the overreaction. Here's the pendulum swing that I'm afraid of people making. And by the way, Adam Thielen, in negotiations right now for a contract extension, he's still. His four year, nineteen million dollar deal is one of the best bargains in all of football. And last season, 113 for 13, 73 and 9. One of the best route runners in football. Here's the deal. We're one offseason removed from $84 million guaranteed into the hands of Kirk Cousins. I think what the coach wants to do, hopes to do, doesn't necessarily match reality in today's NFL. And we can push the pendulum too far and believe this team's gonna run.

[Andy Holloway]

Run, run, run, run.

[Mike Wright]

Well, guess what? This defense wasn't what they thought they had last year. Every single defender on their team, outside of Sheldon Richardson graded out lower than the season before. This defense has question marks and problems. You can want to do that, but when Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay have a two touchdown, three touchdown lead and you've got two of the best route running receivers in football. You're going to use them with a guy that's paid $84 million. So I think the truth of Adam Thielen is much, from a statistical standpoint is much more the first half than the second half of the year. I don't think we expect that. I don't think you see the last eight games repeated over the course of all next season. I don't think you see the first eight games. But I think the overreaction has been staunch. It's been big. People were burned by him. People have scars from the playoff run. When Adam Thielen, I mean if you get eight games, like you got to start the year from Adam Thielen, he's number one. He's auto locked in your lineup though, for the second half of the year. You never take him out. And then when he lets you down, it hurts.

[Brooks]

Yeah. You read the number of his final yardage count. 1373 yards, which. That's a, that's a fantastic season. The hard part is that second half, which. So weeks nine or games nine through 16, 448 total receiving yards.

[Mike Wright]

I get it.

[Brooks]

And to me it's, it's more a question of. That's not a philosophy change. I mean, you, you can't turn in that first half and then the second half like what happens.

[Mike Wright]

And that's, that's my point.

[Brooks]

I don't have an answer.

[Mike Wright]

Part of the answer. The real answer isn't just the running game. The real answer is the offensive line. The real answer is no time for Kirk Cousins. And these guys are getting double and triple team because you don't need to send extra passers, pass rushers on that offense. They released two of their guards today. They don't. They're reformulating that offensive line. If they can fix the offensive line, you're going to fix Adam Thielen's issues. It doesn't just come down to philosophy. It comes down to the fact that their head coach was frustrated because they hadn't. You couldn't put him back in to pass because their offensive line struggle.

[Andy Holloway]

The stat you just brought up of the 400 and yada yada yards over the second half, that is perfect ammunition for those people who want to overreact. I'm 100% on board with Andy. Adam Thielen is just a dominant wide receiver in his prime. So I'm just going to, I'm going to trust that he's great because he's been great and will continue to be great. There's. Yeah, I'm on board. Completely not going to overreact. In fact, I will scoop up whatever dip in his average draft position you've.

[Mike Wright]

Been always scoop the dip. I mean, that's your buy the dip huddle.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll eat. Nom, nom, nom. All right. My. My next overreaction candidate is last year's overreaction candidate. Last year on this show, I told people not to overreact. From Carson Wentz's breaking news.

[Brooks]

It's every time Jason talks.

[Mike Wright]

When Jason, something happens to Sean Jackson. To the Eagles.

[Brooks]

Yeah. What's happening?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, speaking of Carson Wentz, that took.

[Mike Wright]

All of five seconds for him to be released. And ahead to the Eagles. Sorry, implications. One sentence. Implications. We'll talk more on Thursday. Deshaun Jackson to the Eagles means bye bye Aguilar.

[Andy Holloway]

Hello, Carson Wentz.

[Mike Wright]

Nice.

[Brooks]

I won't disagree with that.

[Mike Wright]

I think Aguilar sticks around, by the way.

[Brooks]

He might, but it. He'll be. DeSean Jackson will be what they wanted Mike Wallace to be.

[Mike Wright]

My dynasty team. So happy.

[Brooks]

See, it feels so good, man.

[Andy Holloway]

I was just saying at lunch today, just at lunch today, I was like, dude, I need to like, we're always tapped out on the amount of leagues we're in. We try to stay in a small. And I'm like, I need to find another dynasty league.

[Brooks]

You just want this.

[Andy Holloway]

I want to start up.

[Mike Wright]

All right, go on. You're talking Carson Wentz. Huh?

[Andy Holloway]

Carson Wentz. Last year it was the. Oh, yeah, he's right here. Carson Wentz is with us.

[Mike Wright]

That's not him. That's a. That's a little doll. Well, that's not actually his miniature, but.

[Andy Holloway]

He'S with me in spirit.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

So last year urged people not to overreact on his incredible sophomore year where he threw over 7% of his passes as touchdowns. And, you know, and he. He had a down year this year. And I'm telling people, do not overreact. He had a down year in the worst possible way to have a down year. If you have a down year and it's because you slumped in the middle of the season, you're going to be fine. People aren't going to overreact. They're going to remember the beginning. They're going to remember the end. That's what people remember. But if you remember the beginning of the season and you remember the end of the season, you don't remember Carson Wentz. You remember Nick Foles, he didn't start the year, he didn't finish the year. He's got the back problems. He was down. I mean, if you look at final season rankings, oh, Carson Wentz was, was terrible. But in reality, Carson Wentz was pretty darn good. I mean, right now, in the best ball ADPs that I checked, he's going as the quarterback 13 or 15, depending on the platform you're in. And I want, I'm all about that life. He was still a 5.2% touchdown rate this last year on a. You know, that's great. That's a, that's a. It's.

[Brooks]

Man. 5.2 is manageable.

[Andy Holloway]

5.2 exactly. 5.2 is a great number. That maybe is his number when he threw, you know, 7.4% or something. We all knew it can't stick around there. But he is a good touchdown throw. He's an efficient, you know, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers type of guy that when he gets around the red zone, he throws touchdowns. Look, we need to remember two years ago what I was telling people to not overreact from. He was the quarterback three in points per game. And that was his sophomore year. He dealt with some stuff. Now getting desean Jackson, making sure that Peters is re signed for the left tackle. He's coming back this year. I think people are going to overreact from Carson Wentz's injuries and the feeling, the overall feeling that he, you know, he's nothing special. All the.

[Mike Wright]

The biggest problem with Carson Wentz, if you want me to. And I'm. You're echoing all my thoughts on Carson wins. I love him, but the biggest issue is on the ground, right? Is right because all of your statistics that you brought up about him actually being pretty darn good. I mean, great touchdown to interception ratio, all those things. Completion percentage was outstanding. It's just he picked up so many yards on the ground. That was the extra element that made him an elite top three guy.

[Andy Holloway]

And that is one of those reasons last year when we're saying to not overreact is. I mean this past year he was coming off of an acl. You're not going to run that following year as much as you will now. So I think he keeps running on.

[Mike Wright]

The ground and that's the best place.

[Andy Holloway]

To run and is a dominant quarterback this next year. I think he's a top six fantasy option.

[Mike Wright]

All right guys, what do you think? Desean Jackson over under six and a half touchdowns in Philadelphia this year.

[Brooks]

What do you think six and a half is A pretty good line. I'll take. I'll take the under.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to go over 52.

[Mike Wright]

48 is the current poll results on my Twitter. 250 Foot Clan members voted moments ago. 52% say under, 48% say over. That must be right about where people are expecting him to land. All right, Mike, who's your next overreaction candidate?

[Brooks]

He was a bit of an overreaction candidate last year because the hype train. It was talking about Brooks. Oh, yeah, Brooks. Brooks is always getting the hype. No, it's interesting. I went from Devonta Freeman, who saw his best years under Kyle Shanahan, to a running back who's currently playing for Kyle Shanahan. Want to remind people about. Yep, we're talking in Jerick McKinnon. It's happening.

[Mike Wright]

I need to hear this.

[Brooks]

I don't.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know what to think, man. I really don't.

[Brooks]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Hype. Shame was like you said, it was crazy. I don't know what to think. I need someone to clarify the truth.

[Andy Holloway]

I love McKinnon. He's such a candidate for me right now.

[Brooks]

Yes, I am thoroughly in love with him.

[Mike Wright]

Can we be wrong, though? Could you be wrong?

[Brooks]

Well, here's the deal. So last year, Matt Burrita was the running back 25 to end the season. If you look at the numbers, like games, games played, I thought he was actually better than that. It's because he technically appeared in 14 games. He really only played 10 of those games where he would knock down. You're talking 10% of the snaps because he got knocked out frequently. That was what Matt Burrida kind of did. And in those games where he was playing, he was the. He would get 13 attempts and three targets a game. And he turned that into the running back 25 in 10 games. Look at the yards per attempt for the entire backfield. For San Francisco, running under the Shanahan system, burrito 5.3 a carry. My name is Jeff Wilson. 4.0. Raheem Mostert, Colonel Mustard with a 7.7. Even the carcass of Alfred Morris was able to manage 3.9. That's a win to me.

[Mike Wright]

Honestly, when your carcass can average 3.9. Look, some carcasses get signed to one $2 million deals with buffalo, but go on.

[Brooks]

Sure. And It's. Is Jerick McKinnon still the guy? Because he got paid a crazy amount of money last year. Kyle Shanahan was just talking to a member of SB Nation on February 28th. They said, Is McKinnon the lead guy, Kyle Shanahan quote. Yeah. That's why we brought him here. So he is. Kyle Shanahan still has the Support for Jerick McKinnon right now. If you're playing basketball in draft, he's going to pick 45. These are great values to me, Devonta Freeman and Jerick McKinnon. I firmly believe that McKinnon takes over that lead role over Burrito, over whoever happens to be left on the roster.

[Andy Holloway]

Breaking news. Le'Veon Bell just signed with San Francisco.

[Brooks]

That would put a little bit of a damper on it, but those rumors are absolutely insane.

[Andy Holloway]

It sounds like agent leak type of rumors where it's like, hey, say that San Francisco has interest because we need the jets to pay more.

[Brooks]

This is when he finds out that the only people bidding on Lev Bell are the jets and they're trying to start that war.

[Mike Wright]

Here's what I want to know. What's the difference in how you feel about Jerick McKinnon today versus a year ago?

[Brooks]

The same.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Brooks]

I don't.

[Mike Wright]

You don't. The question.

[Brooks]

Coming off an ACL tear, of course, you have to.

[Mike Wright]

Coming off an ACL tear, have a.

[Brooks]

Little bit of caution. Yes.

[Mike Wright]

And we've seen Matt Burrida and Mostert, who is tender.

[Brooks]

Tendered. Yes.

[Mike Wright]

So the only variables to me are the injury and then seeing a little bit more of those other guys in their success. Now you're kind of making the argument that the success of Matt Burrita works in advantage for Jerick McKinnon's production.

[Andy Holloway]

That's how I've seen it, too. The ACL is a step down, but what those backups were able to do says, you know, Look, I think McKinnon is a better back than those other guys. So if he's in there and those other guys were dominating, he's going to be a great fantasy.

[Mike Wright]

So you're targeting you guys. The overreaction would be that you're the concern.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I. Yeah, the concern for McKinley.

[Mike Wright]

Like I said, whenever you look at.

[Brooks]

45, you're almost the back of the fourth round. A guy who has, in my opinion, easy top 12 upside at the position.

[Mike Wright]

All right, well, listen, I want to talk to the listeners for just a minute because we've got. We're wrapping up today's episode, but there's a lot more coming, and I mean, signings in NFL free agency. We got a show on Thursday. We're going to be covering everything that we didn't get to talk about on today's show. We also have a second show on Thursdays, in case you didn't know that. But it's called the Foot Cast and it is for exclusive. Now you know clan supporters, those of you supporting our independent [e-mail] you get access to an exclusive extra episode. You can ask questions about any of these free agents, your team, your Dynasty team. You can gloat about Danny Mandola on the Footcast if you want to, but check it [e-mail] we encourage you to head over there. Support the year round fantasy football show. One more little thing to get to Pristine Deal of the day. Well, Deshaun Watson had another solid fantasy year and you can pick up a [e-mail] DeSean Watson signed Texans jersey yesterday. It sold for $87. That is a pretty good deal.

[Brooks]

Not bad.

[Mike Wright]

We got juju up on the wall today. Check it all [e-mail] that's P R I S T I N E auction.com for hundreds of daily sports memorabilia auctions. Guys, I don't know if we can get through the outro without another piece of breaking news. Do you think we can?

[Brooks]

As long as we don't let Jason speak.

[Mike Wright]

Dan is working out okay.

[Brooks]

Hey, goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.