Fantasy Football - The Overreaction Episode! + Fantasy Freakouts - Podcast for 5/7

Summary

The Overreaction Episode! + Fantasy Freakouts - Fantasy Footballers Podcast (May 7, 2026)

Episode Overview

In this lively “Overreaction Episode,” hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike “The Fantasy Hitman” Wright dive into the fantasy football tendencies (and dangers) of overreacting to recent trends, player struggles, and franchise perceptions. As the dust settles from the 2025 season and offseason news, the Fantasy Footballers break down key overreactions for 2026, dissect prospect narratives, and highlight which storylines and stats truly matter for your draft prep. Expect top-tier banter, frequent stat drops, and the usual blend of serious analysis and absurdity that makes this show a fantasy football staple.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening Banter and Best Ball Rankings ([03:08])

• The show opens with playful golf talk, highlighting Jason's self-deprecating tweet on his golf “improvement.”
• Announcement: UDK+ Best Ball rankings are now live at UltimateDraftKit.com.

2. The “Switch to FAB” Discussion ([03:08]–[06:49])

• FAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) vs Rolling Waivers: The trio discusses how to convince longstanding leagues to move from old-school waiver priority to FAB systems, emphasizing increased fun, fairness, and strategy.
• Quote (Andy, 04:51): “The reason to change any rule in any league is to maximize fun... also more fair, another level of competition and excitement.”
• Suggest simply shaming old-schoolers, or letting them know FAB is now standard in most platforms.
• FAB trading and budget strategy add another layer for savvy league management.

3. News & Notes ([06:56]–[15:57])

• Stefan Diggs found not guilty; playful speculation on his off-field drama.
• Tyrod Taylor signs as Packers’ backup; discussion of backup QB importance.
• Injury updates: GM expects Michael Parsons & TE Tucker Kraft early in the season, but Kraft’s injury clouds his fantasy value; may be a strong late-season waiver stash ([10:02]).
  • Quote (Jason, 10:56): "I just worry that people won’t have the patience... you’re probably going to end up getting him off waivers."
• Kenneth Walker expects more passing game work with KC, causing ranking debates ([11:41]):
  • Fun banter on his target share:
  • Andy: “RB7 right now, deal with it. Let it wash over you.” ([12:20])
• Travis Hunter (Jags) “will play both sides of the ball;” debate over whether he’s fantasy-relevant given his probable snap split ([13:08]–[15:57]).

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The Overreaction Section ([16:33]–[54:47])

Overreaction 1: “Poopy Diaper Club” – Don’t Overreact to Bad Franchises ([17:23]–[23:28])

• Theme: Don’t cross entire teams off fantasy draft lists just because they stunk last season.
  • 15–25% of sub-.500 NFL teams flip to winners every year; talent and volume can break out on bad teams.
  • Historic examples: OBJ's rookie breakout on a 6–10 Giants squad, James Robinson's RB emergence on a 1–15 Jags team, Trey McBride's TE heroics on a 4-win Cardinals.
  • “Find the diamonds in the big Jurassic Park poop pile. Even if you don’t like the team, there is the opportunity for breakout and value.” (Andy, [20:30])
• Don’t overlook talent or new upside just because a team was “poop” or hard to watch last year.

Overreaction 2: Rookie Tight End Mania – Don’t Chase the 2020s Trend Blindly ([26:05]–[31:09])

• Premise: After years of “Rookie TEs need time,” recent rookie TE hits (Laporta, Bowers, Loveland, etc.) have created hype bubbles, but the hosts caution against assuming every first-round TE is the next star.
• Kenyan Sadiq singled out as a likely overdraft: "If you look at Sadiq as a prospect he is way behind those other guys... He’s going to be overdrafted based on the hype of this is a top-end first round pick.” (Jason, [28:11])
• Watch for prospect pedigree, usage, and landing spot—don’t just follow the trend.
• Andy: "Just say it: You don’t like Kenyan Sadiq." ([30:04])
• “We’ve just gotten lucky three years in a row with rookie tight ends. Maybe we shouldn’t bank on it every time.” (Mike, [30:59])

Overreaction 3: Touchdown Regression – Don’t Believe TD Droughts Are Forever ([31:23]–[35:46])

• Main Point: Running backs with low TD conversion rates on high volume (e.g., Ashton Gentry, Blake Corum, Saquon Barkley) are likely to see positive regression. Ignore the “He just can’t score” narrative if the opportunity volume is there.
• Notable stat: "Saquon, only 1 TD on 13 carries from inside the 5. That doesn’t make sense." (Andy, [35:27])
• Tip: Use inside-the-5 carries and red-zone reports to spot undervalued bounceback candidates.

Overreaction 4: “Brian Thomas Jr. is Dead” – Don’t Bury Sophomore Slumps ([36:16]–[42:47])

• BTJ had a rough sophomore year in JAX (WR43, 2 TDs, low catch rate) but remains the team’s No. 1 X receiver and first read. Historically, many WRs (Evans, Ridley, Cup) slumped sophomore year only to bounce back huge.
• Quote (Mike, [39:54]): "If you overreact to Brian Thomas Jr struggling and you end up right... it’s not just going to be Jacoby Myers or Parker Washington. Somebody will break out.”
• Jason: "One of the things that is a high predictor of future success, is past success." ([40:33])
• BTJ’s current ADP (WR31) is a value, per consensus.

Overreaction 5: Running Back Health – Don’t Project 2025’s Unreal Injury Luck Into 2026 ([45:31]–[49:19])

• 2025 RBs were incredibly durable; 2026 will likely revert. Build RB depth, know that Zero RB could sneakily work as “everyone’s gotten complacent.”
• Jason: “Don’t look back at last year and think, man, somehow running backs just figured out how to exercise and stretch better..." ([49:01])
• Draft for bounce-back injuries but don’t act as if every RB is made of iron now.

Overreaction 6: Mobile Quarterbacks – “Mortal Mobile QBs Still Slap” ([49:42]–[54:47])

• After a tough fantasy year for elite running QBs (injuries, underperformance), don’t fade them too hard—their ADPs are falling, creating value.
• Andy’s headline: “Do not let last year's quarterback disappointments brainwash you. Mortal mobile quarterbacks still slap.” ([50:02])
• Jaden Daniels/Lamar/Jalen Hurts etc. likely to regress toward their mean—take advantage of discounted draft prices.
• Deep dive into how team pace and play-calling influence projection process.

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On the dangers of overreaction: “Usually, people think whatever just happened is going to happen again. Sometimes it’s true. But... things change every single year.” —Jason ([16:59])
• On “Poopy Diaper Club” picks: “You need to make sure that you’re finding the diamonds in the big Jurassic Park poop pile.” —Andy ([20:30])
• On rookie tight end hype: “Don’t overreact to the onslaught of rookie tight end success... what happened isn’t always predictive.” —Jason ([26:12])
• On BTJ’s potential: “The biggest bang for your buck in this draft... is still placing a bet on Brian Thomas Jr. to bounce back.” —Mike ([39:24])
• On running back health: “It will sadly happen... running backs just aren’t going to have massive, devastating injuries again? Take advantage of it.” —Jason ([49:01])
• On mobile QBs: “Mortal mobile quarterbacks still slap.” —Andy ([50:02])

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Important Timestamps

• [03:08] – Best Ball rankings release & quick question (FAB discussion)
• [06:56] – News: Diggs not guilty, Tyrod Taylor to Packers, injury notes
• [11:41] – Kenneth Walker’s role, RB ranking debate
• [13:08] – Travis Hunter usage/Injury implication
• [16:33] – Overreaction section begins
• [17:23] – Don’t overreact to “stinky” franchises
• [26:05] – Rookie tight end trend caution
• [31:23] – Touchdown regression candidates
• [36:16] – Brian Thomas Jr. sophomore slump: buy or bury?
• [45:31] – Don’t expect last year’s RB injury luck
• [49:42] – Mobile QBs, rankings, and value

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Final Takeaways

• The league (and your fantasy team) changes quickly—don’t let last year’s trends, hype cycles, or scars color your 2026 draft approach.
• Be aware of “mass overreactions”—either discounting players from “bad” teams, assuming every rookie TE is a Laporta, or expecting superhuman RB health.
• Use stats smartly: opportunities, regression, historical outcomes, and team context still matter most.
• Stay flexible, and as always, chase fun and upside.

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Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike Wright
For deeper rankings and tools: UltimateDraftKit.com
Next Week: Dynasty Week, rookie sleepers, trade targets, and more!

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"Mortal mobile quarterbacks still slap."
— Andy Holloway ([50:02])

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome in. Thursday, May 7, the fantasy footballers back again, Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway. Overreactions episode for 2026. Some news to talk about. Some golf talk if we want to.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, some golf talk.

[Mike Wright]

What? You had a really poignant tweet today.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I did. About golf. And it was very true.

[Mike Wright]

I thought it was. Why don't you read it? Just for those out there that share the hobby. You know, our new hobby of golf.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, it's something that I am working on. I am not good, but I have found in life when you work on things, you can get better. And so I tweeted out that my experience with golf is that the more work you put into getting better, the higher you can score. So it's great news, guys.

[Mike Wright]

And you've been accomplishing. And I have been accomplishing higher and higher.

[Jason Moore]

I did get a higher score today than ever before, so that's awesome. High score wins, right? Points.

[Mike Wright]

Four went up.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm a football guy.

[Mike Wright]

That's right. That's right, Mike. Back in the building today.

[Andy Holloway]

Chillo.

[Mike Wright]

We have a couple of quick announcements. The best ball rankings are now live in the udk. Plus so that's pretty exciting. Those of you that play best ball out there on the various platforms, you can find our best ball rankings in the UDK plus right now. If you don't have the UDK Ultimate DraftKit.com for that, quick question of the day comes from Zach on Instagram. How can I convince my league to switch to fab? Fab is a way to handle waivers. Stands for free agent acquisition budget. And it means that each week teams blind bid on free agents and when the free agents process, you'll find out who gets them based on who bid the most. Fab. A lot of leagues have like 100 fab budget, maybe 200 over the course of the year. Some teams have or some leagues have off season fab budgets. But this is in opposition to kind of a default standard of like waiver priority rolling.

[Jason Moore]

One other thing, one of the things that's silly to me now is that I think most defaults are now a fab system. So it's like old leagues that you've been in for a while that have been running it as the old standard, which was just waiver priority. If you start like a new league on Sleeper, I have to imagine that that just defaults to fab because that's the way that fantasy has been played for the last decade now. So if you want to convince them just. I mean, I think that's one of the arguments is like this. This is really the new norm for the majority of leagues to. The big argument is always about fun. It. I mean the reason to change any rule in any league is to maximize

[Andy Holloway]

fun and maybe some fairness.

[Jason Moore]

Sure. I mean that's a. That's a secondary. But I. But I think primary, like number one most important thing for every rule is is this make my league more fun. It's also more fair. It's also another level of competition and excitement. And so you get to. You get to try to outsmart outplan your opponents.

[Mike Wright]

It's another day of drama for your league that you get to look forward to in the waivers process. Most leagues do still default to rolling waivers. So this is a. Jason. This is a change.

[Jason Moore]

Even on Sleeper.

[Andy Holloway]

Kyle said he fired up a test on Sleeper. Sleeper. It was rolling waivers.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, Sleeper, you're listening. Sleep.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, no, no, no, no, no.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. We've got this platform. Sleeper. We love you guys. You love us. Change. That's all it takes. Just literally type some things on the keyboard and change your default to fat.

[Mike Wright]

You want to know why? It's not exotic Bird. I'll Tell you why it's not is because it is more involved. It does take more effort to manage a fab budget. If you have reverse order of standings, it's very easy to understand how waivers are going to process. You don't have to do another action. So I think that's why. I think it's because of simplicity. Is it better? Fab is better, yes. So, you know, it gives every. When you talk about fairness, it gives everybody a fair shot at every free agent every week if you have fab budget, you know what I mean? And there's a. We have Fab trading in our league now, so you can actually include Fab in your trade offers, which makes for another little better, another fun way to do it. And then you have to decide how much you conserve towards the end of the year. Do you need to spend it early because you got to make the playoffs? Do you want to save it? So, yeah, that would be our compelling arguments to make to your league. And just say that Jason Moore said so.

[Jason Moore]

You can also just shame them. You know, sometimes you got to just shame people for being old. Busted.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. Shame is another way to do it that Jason Moore would do.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league.

[Mike Wright]

Well, always good when you're not found guilty of assault. Stefan Diggs found not guilty on Tuesday.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, good.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, I hope. I hope he was not guilty. Right? Like, that is the hope here. Good.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Now stop finding yourself in situations where you keep getting accused of this stuff.

[Jason Moore]

The old liar, liar. Stop breaking the law.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, he didn't. He's not guilty.

[Jason Moore]

He is.

[Mike Wright]

But if you've been like, can we make it a new crime? Like it's a separate statute.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

If you're accused of the same thing three times, even if you're found not guilty, you are now guilty of a triple accusation.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, the crime is triple accusation.

[Mike Wright]

You put yourself in the position to be accused of. Insert crime here.

[Jason Moore]

Like, I'm just.

[Mike Wright]

Three times.

[Jason Moore]

We could take it up with the government. I mean, here's the thing Diggs has not done. He had over a thousand yards, led the, you know, Patriots in receiving last year, 85 receptions. He's one of the several old men out there waiting for teams. Him, Tyreek Debo Keenan.

[Mike Wright]

I love Michael Keenan. He is. He's lowercase. Done.

[Andy Holloway]

What we know about Diggs is New England, who just made the Super Bowl. Super Bowl. They were like, yeah, Romeo Dobbs, we're going to get you out of here. We're going to. We're going to bring some other people in.

[Mike Wright]

Tyrod Taylor signed with the Packers. He is the new backup to Jordan Love, which is often an important role considering Malik Willis saw playing time.

[Jason Moore]

And I feel like anywhere Tyrod Taylor goes, the starter does go down, but then he goes down. So now we have to care who's about the backup to the backup. That's always the case with Tyrod Taylor's team.

[Mike Wright]

The packers general manager came out and said that he expects Michael Parsons and tight end Tucker Kraft back. Quote, early in the season. Tucker Kraft coming back from his ACL injury. This is not as optimistic as this Patrick Mahomes news around his ACL. I mean, Mahomes is talking about being ready for OTAs.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I think it's different for a quarterback than for a tight end as far as what you have to be able to do. What's ironic is Tucker's injury was a much cleaner ACL injury than Mahomes. Mahomes had some extra ligament damage. I believe Tucker's was clean, but he should start the season. If he, if Tucker Kraft is there week one, he should not be at full strength and I don't know that he will be there week one. It makes it a really hard pick because I know we were so freaking excited for the breakout that was happening last year. It looked like Tucker Kraft, who, Andy, you loved last off season and then it was paying off and it just was outstanding. And now I don't know how you can view, like, how do you view him in this year's draft?

[Andy Holloway]

Nervous.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you have to be nervous. What's tough is that we've sat here and made arguments for Christian Watson and arguments for Matthew golden being involved in the offense. And those arguments all fit for Tucker Kraft. They let go of Dobbs, they let go of Don Tavian Wicks. You have opportunity to catch the ball in this offense. Kraft was already doing it. Like, if you had to name those, out of those three guys, he's the most reliable in a neutral injury situation. I'd be looking at Tucker Kraft and saying he's the one I have the most confidence in. You throw the injury in there, but then you throw in the fact that you don't have that many tight ends that have that kind of potential to really make a difference. I think he's going to be worth a pick if he slips at all in the draft. Just to, you know, if you start the season and you buy a couple weeks with some spot start tight ends and you can rotate into Tucker Kraft for the last three quarters of the year and get anything like last year, I feel like you'd be happy with where he's going to go.

[Jason Moore]

I just worry that people won't have the patience or even the ability to have the patience. If it does take a month, six weeks, however long before all of a sudden the second half of the year, maybe. Craft is awesome, but I think you're probably going to end up getting him off of waivers. Like, even if he's drafted, he's drafted. And then week five, week six, you

[Andy Holloway]

grab them off of waivers.

[Mike Wright]

He could have a good week one, you know, you never know. Kenneth Walker. Oh, boy, we got this in here, huh? He expects to be used more in the passing game with the Chiefs. Mike is pleased. He says he's been working on getting connected in the passing game. Yeah, he has and everything, so that's good. Said Walker to K. Adams. I feel like I. I'll be used more in the pass game. Mike feels that way.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's get you. It's. Yeah, just a nice clean 10% target share.

[Mike Wright]

Is that what you projected him for?

[Andy Holloway]

That's where I.

[Mike Wright]

Did he end up in your rankings or do you have yours done?

[Andy Holloway]

He.

[Mike Wright]

We had a little bit of a ranking reveal for our individual rankings on the last episode.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike let me.

[Mike Wright]

We shared some.

[Andy Holloway]

If I could pull that up real quick. He is. This is going to surprise you guys.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to.

[Andy Holloway]

He's higher than you would think.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to guess he's eight.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

12 for me.

[Jason Moore]

He's 13 for me.

[Andy Holloway]

You guys are all too low.

[Jason Moore]

Eight is too low.

[Andy Holloway]

RB7 right now.

[Mike Wright]

Wait, are you still working on yours?

[Andy Holloway]

My first pass is done.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

So.

[Mike Wright]

Wow. That's unsurprising.

[Andy Holloway]

Deal with it. Let it wash over you.

[Mike Wright]

That would be. That would be obviously his highest finish, but he's got every opportunity in front of him.

[Jason Moore]

You have him at a 10% target share.

[Andy Holloway]

I do.

[Jason Moore]

I've got him at 8.

[Andy Holloway]

Got bump those numbers. Those are rookie numbers. You got to bump those up.

[Mike Wright]

Now I've got to look and see.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm pretty sure he had a 10%.

[Mike Wright]

I have him at 7.

[Jason Moore]

A couple of years ago, he was weirdly into just. He was a passer.

[Andy Holloway]

He was a 14% target share two years ago.

[Mike Wright]

If you want to see Mike somehow even happier than he was last year, Kenneth Walker having a top five season would get it done.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Travis Hunter, general manager of the Jags, James Gladstone came out, said he's going to play both sides of the ball in 2026.

[Andy Holloway]

We know he's going to play both. That doesn't help us now.

[Mike Wright]

I will say that's better than the report of he's not going to play offense.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I don't feel like that report was ever actually he's not going to play off it kind of.

[Jason Moore]

It was. That's what it was alluding to.

[Mike Wright]

It was like oh no, it was time corner.

[Andy Holloway]

That's all. That's what was said.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

As in then to me that's okay. He's doing 100% of defensive snaps. So offensively then he now his snaps are. Are throttled. That's the part we need to know.

[Jason Moore]

I pulled up an interview today with Liam Cohen where he flat out and you can't get anyone better. This isn't a reporter. This is Liam Cohen. Thank you, Liam. This is the head coach saying their plan, their plan for Travis Hunter is identical to when they drafted him, which is to get him on both sides of the ball as much as possible. That's what he said this.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Look I. We've had. We're going to talk about this forever. I have been very pro Travis Hunter playing offense. He won the Belitnikov. He is a fabulous wide receiver and he might be their best one. He might legitimately be their most skilled wide receiver. He is certain you can make an easy argument that his skill set is better than Jacoby Myers and Parker Washington. You could argue we've seen Brian Thomas Jr. Go put up that kind of a monster year. I think his highest ceiling is the highest of the group. But that doesn't mean that's the kind of snaps he's going to get. That will be the risk with Hunter. I could see myself never drafting Travis Hunter because the reward might not be worth the risk.

[Jason Moore]

It is really tough where these small little percentages make an enormous impact. When you say, okay, let's say he plays the majority of offense but it's still not good enough if he's playing 60% of snaps on offense. You look at the players who are slot only guys that can't get in on two wide receiver sets. They have such a hard path for fantasy plug and play relevance. I still am very skeptical. I agree with you Andy, that Travis Hunter is a good wide receiver and too good to be off the field. They've got to involve him. These. They have a great wide receiver in that. But I also think he's not going to get enough snaps to be reliable for fantasy.

[Mike Wright]

I think that's. That's right. I'm more just speaking to Jacksonville I'm

[Andy Holloway]

more just, that's fine.

[Mike Wright]

Which, I mean, it sounds like Liam Cohen has the same mindset of, basically, you drafted him to be a special weapon on both sides of the ball. We're going to use him that way. Maybe his plan was not to get him more involved when he was breaking out in week eight or whatever it was, but I just think he's a really good player now. It's hard because if I told you a game was happening tomorrow and I told you, start, start. Jacksonville wide receiver, with your season on the line, you could argue for the other three guys already.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

You could say Jacoby's the best one to play today. Brian Thomas is the best one to play today. Parker Washington is the best one to play today. Britain Strange is the best one to play today. And then you have to throw Hunter in there. So maybe the best path is just. We'll watch Trevor Lawrence. Yeah. Trevor Lawrence is way higher than I thought he'd be on my rankings. That was one of our reveals, Mike. Do you want to know where he is or did I already tell you?

[Andy Holloway]

I saw you threw out a number, but you were not complete yet.

[Mike Wright]

4.

[Andy Holloway]

There he is.

[Mike Wright]

My guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Horse boy.

[Mike Wright]

We are into our overreactions episode players and situations that fantasy football managers will overreact to this year. It is always a fun episode on this episode. Last year, one of the ones we brought up was not to overreact to Saquon's dominance.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

And believe that it's repeatable. That was not met with a lot of respect, maybe, I don't know, with a lot of agreement.

[Andy Holloway]

They're not happy to hear it.

[Jason Moore]

Usually think whatever just happened is what's going to happen again. Like, that is the normal stance. And it's sometimes true. But, I mean, things change every single year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Let's get into it.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not gonna do what you all think I'm gonna do, which is just flip out.

[Mike Wright]

All right. Overreactions. I think we both picked a couple of them to go through. I feel like I want to start just based on what you just said, Jason, which is that our default position is to say what happened last year is going to happen again. We. The first overreaction that I'm going to bring up is an overreaction to what our perceived stinkiness value is for a franchise. So we'll call this the Poopy Diaper Club. This is the Browns, Jets, Cardinals, Dolphins. You could throw a couple other teams in there. We're talking about, how bad are these teams? How Bad is our perception of them and how do we react in fantasy. Our default opinion is, oh my gosh, I just had to watch 17 weeks of that garbage. So it's coming again and I don't want any player to touch that team. So my simple counterbalance, a pendulum swing in the other direction of this. Look, I stand by everything we've ever said. You want players on winning teams, okay? So we're not taking that out of the equation. Here's part of it. Part of it is you don't know which teams are going to be winning teams. You think you do, and some you do, some you will know. You can tell me Buffalo is going to win a lot of games. I will accept that. Yeah, but 20% somewhere in that range, some years it's 15%, some years it's 25%. Somewhere in that range of teams that are below 500 become above 500 teams on a yearly basis, the turnover at the NFL level. So you've got, you know, a quarter of this of the league that is going from a team that we perceive as bad, that was bad, to a good team. So you're going to try to identify those situations. The other thing is that you will get fantasy value out of franchises that are not necessarily the funnest to watch. Right. Even in the worst year of the Jets, Breece Hall's had success. Garrett Wilson, top 10 wide receiver, the Cardinals were full of, from Jacoby Brissette to Trey McBride to Michael Wilson to the running back. I mean, James Conner the year before. You do find value in those positions. And what I don't want somebody to do is completely remove guys from your draft board because of the emotional reaction that you had to their nasty performances on the field. The breakout season for Odell Beckham came on a 6 and 10 season for the New York Giants. James Robinson, that breakout running back season came on a 1 in 15 Jacksonville team. Brock Bowers, rookie season, Las Vegas was 4 and 13. Devon H.N. last year we didn't like watching the Dolphins. We liked watching him. You talk about touchdown opportunities, like part of why you haven't ranked lower is you're afraid that they weren't a good offense last year. Right. And so he still had a big performance. Harold Fannin last year, a big performance. To me, you need to make sure that you're finding the diamonds in I guess the big Jurassic park poop pile. Even if you don't like the team, there is the opportunity, a 20% chance that they turn it around and become a winning team. That Fits the category of draft players on winning teams and then there's a chance that talent just wins out on those franchises. It's something I've been saying a lot with the draft this year with some of these wide receiver destinations, some of the places where players have gone where you're like, oh, that's gross, that's nasty. Look, you might be right for some of these teams, but if you, if you have a player you really like and you have a team situation that you can at least paint a picture of a chance that they turn it around. Don't overreact to the stinkiness of these teams. Trey McBride had the greatest tight end season ever on a four win team. You can do it. And I think there is a difference between middle of the pack bad and bottom of the barrel bad. I think those things are different too.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you do need to have a little bit of thought behind it. You know there are examples in the past where teams that you thought were going to be putrid were good. And it is shocking. I think of the Texans a couple years back when the Cardinals acquired their next year's first and we thought, oh, this is a top five pick for sure. And then they were really, really good. But also they got a new rookie quarterback who was surprisingly way better than we thought. And so I do think you can take a look at these teams, these bad teams kind of get a good idea of like okay, sometimes it's a player is alone so he's going to soak up so much of the target share that they can still be bad. But other times when you're looking at the bad teams that are going to get better, there's got to. I just look at the quarterback and say is there a chance. So for instance, should do our Sanders, right? Is there a chance that he could surprise and be better? I think probably. I think that is more likely that he could have.

[Andy Holloway]

Better than what?

[Jason Moore]

Well, I'm saying last year as opposed to like if we're looking at these four teams and saying, you know Geno Smith at this stage of his career, is he going to really rescue and turn the jets into a really good team? Probably not now. I think probably not with Shador as well.

[Mike Wright]

Browns were in nine one score games last year. There were a lot of games that their defense kept them in. It didn't mean that they had great off. I mean you can talk about the Browns and quinch on Judkins. Judkins and Fannin had great seasons.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, but that stat is such an indictment of the offense because of how like they were in nine, one score.

[Mike Wright]

They went four and five and one score games.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, their defense was that good.

[Mike Wright]

Every week.

[Andy Holloway]

Their offense is that bad. Then exactly.

[Mike Wright]

Every week you would look at the score and you'd be like, oh, the Browns are in it again.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

You know, I know, Jason, you don't have high expectations for the Dolphins. You know, a lot of their personnel is pretty similar to last year. But you bring in Malik Willis, the performances by, you know, who they had on the offensive side last year was terrible. Two is gone. Just keep an open mind. Don't shut these teams out. Don't, don't completely take them off your list for the black for the draft board because I think there's opportunities to find value and I think the overreaction is to say, oh my gosh, I don't want one.

[Jason Moore]

You know what I like about that, Andy? I like your positivity.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

I like how optimistic you are. You're looking forward and you're saying it can be better. It doesn't always have to be worse. But now it's my turn.

[Mike Wright]

Not yet.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man.

[Andy Holloway]

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[Mike Wright]

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[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. No, I don't need to.

[Mike Wright]

I don't understand. You're trusting your signal out here.

[Jason Moore]

I'm trusting T Mobile. They have the best network.

[Andy Holloway]

And if we end up in bumtots

[Jason Moore]

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[Mike Wright]

I don't trust my carrier that much.

[Jason Moore]

We'll just use your phone as a flashlight.

[Mike Wright]

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[Mike Wright]

and now it's your dude.

[Jason Moore]

I have been waiting forever. My I am so back here baby. I am back to my old ways.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh no.

[Mike Wright]

I know what this is.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, my overreaction is. Don't overreact to the onslaught of rookie titan success recently.

[Mike Wright]

Okay. Now here it's just another offseason.

[Jason Moore]

It's. Yeah, I mean it feels just like another offseason. I will. I want to qualify this because I have completely changed from saying that rookie tight ends, you know, they, they take time to develop. They can't hit the ground running in year one. That's the old NFL. It's obviously changed. Obviously. This last year you had Warren Loveland fannin, you had Brock Bowers, you've had Laporta. So I am not, I am not stuck in that. But what I am saying as an overreaction is because we have this slew of really good fantasy impact rookies. There are, there's at least sadiq this draft and if you want to throw stowers in there where people are going to be drafting these players higher than they should be based upon the overreaction of what's happened recently. And I want us to be smarter than that and look at the nuance of the players. First of all, Warren and Loveland were unbelievable talents. These guys, their production profiles, their landing spots like we we could see this Coming Brock Bowers, literally the best prospect at tight end that you know we've been doing the show for over a decade. He was a perfect prospect. We knew about him years in advance. That's not what Kenyan Sadiq is. Even Eli Stowers especially where he ended up behind Dallas Goddard, you know when we look at historical trends that's great but it's not predictive. It describes what happened. It doesn't automatically mean that Sadiq is going to be good. If you look at Sadiq as a prospect he is way behind those other guys yards per route run he only Hayden Hurst was lower over the last

[Andy Holloway]

decade for a first rounder.

[Jason Moore]

For a first round tight end you look at a dominator rating which is the percentage of a team's yards and targets. Only Hurst and O.J. howard were lower for first round tight ends. You look at yards per team pass attempt and the reason I'm throwing these three stats out is because these are three of the most predictive stats that we have for you know pass catchers coming from college to the NFL. He's the lowest of any first round tight end over the last. Now he goes to a team where he's not going to be in a Brock Bauer situation and soaking up the targets. He he's behind Garrett Wilson. At the very least Garrett Wilson is soaking up the target. So I believe he's going to be overdrafted based on the hype of this is a top in first round draft pick. Those have been dominating. I'm just going to take my shot. I'm just going to you know swing for the fences in the early middle rounds especially when it comes to to late August address are happening. People are going to push them up around or two too high. I don't think that we have a breakout rookie tight end this year. Even though I love Stowers and I just don't want to overreact from the run we've been on.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't disagree with you at all. I know the prospect of Kenyan Sadiq I am concerned of if you're that awesome why aren't you dominating in college ball is like O.J. howards is kind of and he's at Alabama. He's in the S. Was sorry in the SEC like Josh Jacobs was similar you know like as a running back his production profile was lacking but you you could understand why Sadiq you can't like why aren't you better? I'm just chuckling the whole time because your your topic is don't overreact to Rookie Titans. Just call it what is Jason.

[Jason Moore]

I don't like Kenyan Sadiq. Thank you.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, just be intellectually honest with the people. Just say, don't overreact to Kenyan Sadiq.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, that's. But the reason, my point is the

[Andy Holloway]

reason you have to like briefly mention Stowers. Just so you're like, no, I'm talking all the Titans. No, you're not. All right, well, one guy.

[Jason Moore]

Look, last year Andy's was, you know, about Saquon and this is about Sadiq. Don't overdraft Siddiq. He's not, he's not going to be

[Andy Holloway]

special off the graphics.

[Mike Wright]

Honestly, I think Stowers could do it.

[Jason Moore]

Stowers is so good, man.

[Mike Wright]

Oh my God.

[Jason Moore]

I would take Stowers over Sadiq.

[Andy Holloway]

He still has to get by.

[Mike Wright]

God.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I think. You know what I think happened? I don't think that fantasy football players are capable of reacting in either direction to rookie tight ends. I think all we do is we take the, the young, unseen upside in the spot of the draft where it's ugly, old and boring.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And we've gotten lucky three years in a row.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

And it's worked out spectacular. So maybe we, maybe we.

[Jason Moore]

That's why people are going to a little bit. They're going to say, well, it's worked out three times in a row. I'm going to.

[Mike Wright]

And you know what? When I get to some late round pick and I have to choose Mark Andrews or Stowers, wish me luck.

[Jason Moore]

Overreact.

[Mike Wright]

Wish me luck.

[Jason Moore]

Grab Mark Andrews.

[Mike Wright]

Mike, go ahead.

[Andy Holloway]

I just want to talk a little bit about some, some touchdown regression. And you know, we call it, we call it positive regression because we just want you to understand we're talking about going in the right direction. So we're talking about touchdowns specifically for, for the running back position of saying last year's touchdown droughts will not last forever. You know, James Cook is kind of the, he's become the poster boy for this type of talk where his first two years in league, he scored a total of two rushing touchdowns in each of those consecutive years. Breaks out in a huge way. And it's like, oh, yeah, he was hitting some bad luck. Maybe he's hitting a little bit too much on the good side. But he's a great player. It can't be just simply, oh, this player will never be able to score. So I wanted to highlight a couple guys to pay attention to because it's not as, it's not as easy as, you know, like last year's Matthew Stafford threw a touchdown on 7.7% of his passing attempts. That number's probably going to come down just based off of a huge history of Stafford. Running backs are more difficult. But one player I do really want to highlight, Ashton Genty, is a. He is a. He is in this category of last year, we had 266 rushing attempts for him, and he only scored a rushing touchdown. You know, like, for every 53 carries like these, these are numbers we can look at and say, you're getting way too much volume. Your touchdown expectation should be far better than you performed last year. We have, you know, like, so, like some guys talk about carries inside the five where the success wasn't there, but the opportunities keep flowing. David Montgomery, only five of his carries inside the five turned into a touchdown. He should be seeing exactly the same amount of volume he was seeing inside the five this year compared to last year, maybe even more. And I expect those numbers to go back up. But along with Ashton Genti, you know, going on the good side. Blake Corum is very interesting when you're talking about this because he stands out dramatically of a player who had 13 carries inside the five and he only had four touchdowns. And I think people will see that number and be too dismissive and say, well, that means he's not good in it. It's all Kyren. Or look at the actual amount of carries that the team is giving him inside the five. It'd be like, maybe I need to be a little bit more hesitant about what's going on. He has some touchdown aggression coming for himself. Maybe I need to be more worried about the timeshare we had, I guess, last episode you guys were talking about the report of Kyren and Blake Corum being more of a 53.

[Mike Wright]

We had a pretty, pretty big debate about it.

[Jason Moore]

So how many carries inside the five for Corum? He had 13 last year, so Kyron had 18.

[Andy Holloway]

Like, there's a lot to go around for that team because they're scoring up. But the point is, well, Kyren is. Yeah, okay, so that's where you stand on this side of the argument.

[Mike Wright]

That's where he stands on his.

[Andy Holloway]

The touchdown. The numbers are the numbers, man. Analytics. They, they bounce back to the mean. And I think that Quorum really underproduced in that area.

[Mike Wright]

And younger players tend to get better and older players tend to get worse.

[Andy Holloway]

And then, you know, to highlight, like Bill, only three of his carries inside the five. Three of 12 turned into touchdowns. So make sure you're paying attention to these we give you access to these types of numbers in the ultimate draft kit. If you just want to go look at a red zone report, see who's getting a bunch of carries inside the five. I mean this is part of the process that I go with so you can have build it into yours as well. Look, look for signs because guys don't like Chase Brown scoring on 31% of his carries inside the five. That's. It's just, it's low. It's low that look for opportunities.

[Mike Wright]

If you were to see them 100 times.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

That's going to come up as one of the lower performing seasons.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. Relative to the mean and the nine. The big boy is Saquon Barkley who had one touchdown from inside the five. Like that doesn't make you know how many attempts on 13 attempts you highlighted. Andy like be careful with his performance. I will say the same thing now

[Mike Wright]

of in the other direction.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Like don't, don't bury Barkley just yet.

[Mike Wright]

Rank check.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So I really did not like where Saquon ended up. For me he's. He's a player that I'm going to move up because he finished where I had him stated out at running back 15. That feels too low.

[Mike Wright]

He's got. I got him at 10. I felt pretty good about that. I feel like that's the right, the right range.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I agree.

[Mike Wright]

And maybe a value for that team that's going to lose by all you know counts. A.J. brown.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And yeah we can like Stowers and Lemon but that's not the presence of A.J. brown on that offense. I would not be surprised if you saw a very similar run heavy scheme with a little bit more bounce back to the mean. My second overreaction is the. It's ironic because we. I don't think we knew we were going to talk about Travis Hunter in this Jacksonville offense but my second one was just that Brian Thomas Jr. Is not dead.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh man. When I was doing Jacksonville brother hard time it. It's so. It's so difficult to not react drastically to what happened last year.

[Mike Wright]

You're talking about the fact that he finishes the wide receiver 43. He missed three weeks due to injury but only had 48 catches, 700 yards, two touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

His catch rate was. It totally bottomed out.

[Mike Wright]

It was not. It was at 50 different than what you saw from a Buka second half of the year.

[Andy Holloway]

He caught 65% of his targets in his rookie season that plummeted to 53. And it's like I needed Mac Jones

[Jason Moore]

targets man, he can't be at 53.

[Mike Wright]

Look, his.

[Andy Holloway]

It doesn't make sense.

[Mike Wright]

He's a rookie. It doesn't make sense, but maybe it does. A lot went sideways. The challenge here is that you had. You've only had like a handful of rookies that have finished as top five wide receivers in the history of the game. Beckham was one, Chase was one, Puka was one. Brian Thomas Jr. Did that two years ago. That's why he was a top 10 pick in a lot of drafts. The fall off of expectation to performance. That difference is the most impactful thing that you could have in fantasy. In terms of like he is the bust of the year probably for the. When you. Relative to draft position. He has to be. What's wild is that all the other sophomore wide receivers struggle. They all went down. Yeah, Malik Neighbors barely played. But he's. His points per game was down from his rookie year. BTJ's was the most extreme, went from 14 to 8. But lad McConkey went from 12 to 9. That's not that different than Brian Thomas Jr. In terms of the actual output in points per game. 14 to 8, 12 to 9. Marvin Harrison went down a point per game. Xavier Worthy went down three points per game. These were all.

[Jason Moore]

I mean Malik Neighbors wasn't even in the top 90 wide receivers.

[Mike Wright]

That's true. Thank you.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you, Jason.

[Mike Wright]

I didn't mention he was injured, but this was a new offense and when I look at that receiving room and I. I've been through it. Mike, you just said you had to go through it. I had to go through it. There's a lot of different mouths to feed. He was. He did not end up. I think he ended up basically tied as my target leader on the team with Jacoby Myers and total targets. But the true purest upside potential, the biggest bang for your buck in this draft for somebody that's going to make a difference on your team is is still placing a bet down on Brian Thomas Jr. To bounce back to the type of form or close to it that he had in his rookie season. Jacoby Myers. We know what that dude is. We do. We've seen him on multiple franchises. The Patriots, the Raiders, Jacksonville. Let me give you a word for him. Solid.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's, that's the issue is. Is he just a good wide receiver or is he good enough to be that for them?

[Jason Moore]

Brian Thomas.

[Andy Holloway]

No, Jacoby.

[Jason Moore]

Jacoby is. We know who Jacoby is.

[Andy Holloway]

But that's what I'm saying.

[Mike Wright]

But he's not enough. But he's not we.

[Andy Holloway]

That's. That's my question. Is it enough? And let me say this, you'll have to answer that as a drafter, if

[Mike Wright]

you overreact to Brian Thomas Jr struggling and you end up right and he's horrible, I promise you Travis Hunter is a thing. If Brian Thomas Jr. Is nothing, I promise you it's not just going to be Jacoby Myers and Parker. Washington is going to be somebody else. I think BTJ can bounce back. We've had some big time standout rookies that had a struggle as sophomores and bounced back. Mike Evans went From the wide receiver 12 as a rookie to 24 to 3. Calvin Ridley from 19 to 26 to 4. Cooper Cup 27 to 51 to 4. Garrett Wilson 1932 4. I'm not saying it will happen. I'm saying that the draft value, it's almost it's one of the best picks you can make.

[Jason Moore]

It is absolutely one of the best picks you can make. One of the things that is a high predictor of future success is past success. We know that, it's obvious. But this was in years past. Andy, you had a my guy prediction of Todd Gurley and then he was the running back one that year you had a my guy prediction of Cooper cup and he was, he was the number one wide receiver afterwards because they had shown that they could do this in the past. Right now, depending on your source, I'm seeing an ADP of wide receiver 31. He's being drafted at wide receiver 31. Now I have his median outcome at wide receiver 22. So I think he's a huge value. But this is a guy who two years ago was the wide receiver for

[Mike Wright]

his seventh or eighth round pick potential.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean it's a wonderful shot to take.

[Mike Wright]

There is more talk of Jacksonville moving to two tight end sets. BTJ is not the the guy coming off the field in those situations. He's the X receiver. He's going to stay out there. He led Jacksonville in first read target percentage even in his crappy year. Last year you talked about the catch percentage. With two or fewer wide receivers on the field, he's still the dude. You know, Liam Cohen has come out and talked a little bit more about the fact that, you know, he didn't realize what BTJ is capable of doing in the slot. They need to do some better stuff with him. I don't think the utilization was questionable. He had 25% of his routes as pure go routes last year. There are only a handful of guys and they're not names you love. You know, Marvin Mims, Darius Slayton, DK

[Andy Holloway]

Metcalf, the Nine Route Warriors.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, your catch percentage is going to be low. You know, K Sean Booty kind of got it done with that. He had the highest percentage of go routes, but not to a degree where you were reliable in fantasy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, they also figured that out a little bit to start the year. Last year, Brian Thomas Jr. Was way worse than how he finished. Like before their bye week, he was catching 49% of his targets. After the bye week is 58%. So I do think that they are going to figure that out.

[Mike Wright]

He's going behind Cortland Sutton. Who? Do you want to try take a shot? Of course he's going behind DK Metcalf. Mike, let me throw that one to you. Never. Metcalf is what Mike is. Lived his life.

[Andy Holloway]

There's players drafted after.

[Mike Wright]

And he's going behind Jacoby Myers, by the way. One pick.

[Jason Moore]

Wow. That. That won't happen.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. Why? Because everyone's like, huh, I don't know.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think there's going to be a big overreaction. Maybe it's even inappropriate emotional reaction. But don't let it affect how you draft 20, 26. All right, is it your turn?

[Jason Moore]

It is my turn. I'm going.

[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

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[Mike Wright]

Mike, what do you got for us?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think we can do that now with the screen.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, it must be Jason.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I'm up. Injuries have one of the biggest effects in fantasy football and they are not predictable. However, there's a lot of data at different positions for how often players get injured or don't. And I want us to be aware of what happened last year at the running back position and not overreact and. And think it's going to happen again. Cause it ain't. Running backs last year were so healthy.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

No one got injured. It was unbelievable. We never.

[Mike Wright]

Part of it was you. You made the proclamation about Bijon Bijan. We knew it was like sheer will. Kept Christian McCaffrey on the field, plus an electrical station, plus he siphoned the powers of his other teammates.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, it really was. You have guys who have massive injury history like Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor. A lot of guys just didn't get injured. In fact, if you look at the players last year, Christian McCaffrey, 17 games. Jonathan Taylor, 17, Bijan 17, Jameer 17, James Cook, 17, Achan, 16. But he was just benched in week 18. All the guys that were 16 were benched in week 18. That was, you know, Devon Achan and Javante Williams.

[Andy Holloway]

There was a little hurt too.

[Jason Moore]

There was basically only one injury of note, which was Josh Jacobs.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, Bucky.

[Jason Moore]

Oh yes, sorry 2. Bucky and Josh Jacobs, those guys were injured. But to give you a little bit of numbers of how wild it was in 2025, the top 12 by ADP averaged 16.1 games. And it's really higher than that because most of Those were week 18 sit downs from their team. Saquon Barkley didn't play, wasn't injured. Usually you look back at the previous decade, they're only averaging 13.6 games. And that is a big difference because when you have those injuries, like Josh Jacobs missed like two games. Not really. He was injured, he was playing injured. He had games where he would play like 29% of the snaps, not touch the ball. It was a very bad end of the season for Josh Jacobs. So how does this apply to not overreact to it? Well, one, you're going to have the pendulum swing like it will. Running backs were great last year. Running backs will be highly drafted again this year, which means you're going to have some value in the first two rounds at wide receiver. I also think that this is a very good year to focus on depth at running back because you know, people are going to be like, oh, I've got my studs, I'm solid. But also what that kind of points me towards. I'm not the hugest fan of this, but the years where you want to try it are years after what we just saw. And that's 0 RB. 0 RB is the methodology of drafting where you are going to take the backup insurance running backs late in a draft, the fodder and you're going to wait for the injuries at running back. The reason it's probably a good year to do it is because it didn't work well this last year. When you have a. I call it

[Mike Wright]

the no dub strategy.

[Jason Moore]

When you have a handful of people playing that strategy in the same league, they kind of cannibalize each other and it doesn't work well for them to succeed. But when it's like not popular, it's like, oh, that didn't work. People aren't going to be in it.

[Andy Holloway]

Especially in the running backs are being juiced up. You get access then to elite wide receivers and the elite tight ends.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. So I don't, I don't want to look back at last year and think, man, somehow running backs just figured out how to exercise and stretch better and they're not going to have, you know, big, massive, devastating injuries this year. It will sadly happen and take advantage of it.

[Mike Wright]

Draft, way to not be positive like me. Draft, just talk about injuries coming.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, you're kind of like

[Mike Wright]

the grim reaper, you know what I mean?

[Jason Moore]

That's kind of your thing.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. What are you trying to do over there?

[Mike Wright]

I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know.

[Andy Holloway]

Just trying to rebrand live on the air here.

[Jason Moore]

Can't do that, man.

[Andy Holloway]

We're not fooling nobody.

[Jason Moore]

Like 12 years into this.

[Mike Wright]

We'll leave him. We'll leave him as double stuff. Mike, what do you got?

[Andy Holloway]

So like Jason's talking about with the running backs, we have a situation to monitor here with the elite top tier mobile quarterbacks because they did not come through.

[Mike Wright]

I want you to read it verbatim. I want you to read your headline verbatim. Which the over for your section here.

[Andy Holloway]

Do not let last year's quarterback disappointments brainwash you. Mortal mobile quarterbacks still slap.

[Mike Wright]

That's it.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, all right, wrap it up. That's a Kyle Borgononi.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, is that what he did?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Kyle loves say things slap.

[Mike Wright]

Mortal Kombat still slaps, which it does. There you go.

[Andy Holloway]

There's a new movie coming out. Not hashtag non sponsored.

[Mike Wright]

I hate being old enough to where everything has come out three or four times. Do you know what I mean? Yeah, like I don't. That is not a great part of growing up is just seeing the same exact movie.

[Andy Holloway]

Want to see some new remade? Four.

[Mike Wright]

Three or four times is wild.

[Jason Moore]

They're just still trying to get it right, you know. Any time now.

[Andy Holloway]

Crazy but so you know, like Lamar ADP of quarterback two finishes at 20. Jaden Daniels lost season to injury. Jalen hurts not nearly as good as you hoped. Bo Nix like it was. Bo Nicks was a weird season because sometimes it was fantastic. And then of course Kyla Murray who loses his job to injury and the team just no longer wanting to play him.

[Mike Wright]

We need to know where he is for you right this minute.

[Andy Holloway]

Kyler.

[Jason Moore]

We have.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

This is part. So this is part of our rankings.

[Andy Holloway]

Hold on.

[Mike Wright]

Surprise. Yesterday me and me and Jason had a big differential on Kyler Murray.

[Andy Holloway]

Right now I have him better than ADP, but he is quarterback 15 for me, 23.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, Jason has him at 10.

[Andy Holloway]

He is just call me baby bear.

[Jason Moore]

He is currently 12 now. But yes, I had him at 10 at the beginning.

[Mike Wright]

But to your point, Jason also has Jaden Daniels very high which that's what

[Andy Holloway]

we want to bring up here is

[Mike Wright]

the forgotten man is the ADP is.

[Andy Holloway]

It has shifted. So last year Lamar Jackson was going around the 2, 3 turn right now in best ball he's Going in the late fifth, Jaden Daniels went from a third rounder to a sixth rounder.

[Mike Wright]

This is.

[Andy Holloway]

Value is being placed upon you. And these, these are still the guys like Jaden Daniels last year. If you look at his, at only his six starts, his rushing numbers were exactly what you wanted. They were nearly identical to last year. Just he got hurt. The completion percentage wasn't as great, but we're, we need these guys to run and we need to know that they're going to run all year long. And Jaden Daniels is now giving you a discount and, and like his scramble rate was even higher in those first six games compared to his rookie season. Then Jalen hurts. It's the same thing. You know, you had a weird lower rushing touchdown year for Jalen Hertz. Is that the new normal or is it the couple years prior where it's just, it's automatic, you know, last year only eight rushing touchdowns on the season. It was the fewest carries inside the five since 2021 for Jalen Hurts. The chance for him to regress to his mean there I think is it. It's very strong. I'm not saying like I'm for sure calling these things to happen. It's just about finding value where the market is presenting it to you. And regression studies should be a huge part of what you do when you're getting ready for drafts because that's how you know when people are. We're a little too excited for them or the, the mob is too scared of this player.

[Mike Wright]

Yesterday we got a question, Mike, on the mailbag portion about our process for statting players out in the udk, Jason and I got to answer for ourselves. You weren't here. We talked a little bit about you looking at pace of play.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Do you want to fill in some more?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. The way I started, as I start with the top down of just kind of the whole team, the team environment of their pace of play is very important to me. And that's based off of the history of the team coaching staff. You know there's, there's definitely some projection that goes into it when you know, like last year Kellen Moore goes to the Saints. He plays way faster than Peyton and like the previous regime or not. Who, Dennis Allen? Yes. And you're like, so you got to just kind of anticipate that's going to go on. But we have enough history of Kellenmore. And then I look at okay, that coach the quarterback like just who they have. Their pass to rush ratio is really important to me. Of Is that going to stay about the same? Is it going to rise? And then that essentially just feeds my quarterback statistics of knowing those things and then of course knowing how the quarterback performs and then I just kind of filter that down to the the rest of the players.

[Mike Wright]

Now we kind of talked about different starting points for what you're looking at as we build those out. Obviously the entire set of player by player, team by team projections for all three of us and our consensus rankings are all going to be in the 2026 ultimate draft kit. We just released the best ball rankings in the UDK plus available right now. All of that@ultimate draftkit.com if you never want to think about it again, you can just become an Ultimate Foot Clan member. You'll get access to both the UDK in its highest form, the UDK plus, and you'll also get in season tools including the lineup Optimizer, Everything. We add all the time, everywhere, extra episodes every week. It's a great way to support the show. Just go to jointhefoot.com for that. We are going to say goodbye to today's episode and we'll be back with Dynasty Week next week, trade targets, rookie sleepers, an autograph jersey giveaway next week, and a whole lot more from the Fantasy Footballers. Until then, I wish you good luck on the golf course.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I need a man.

[Mike Wright]

Swing straight. Hit the ball. Definitely hit it. Step 1

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.

[Andy Holloway]

Out on the road, it helps to have a partner like the Love's Rewards app. Download Love's Rewards today to get sweet discounts and earn points on food, fuel, drinks and more. Every time you scan Love's Rewards, save and earn at every turn. Terms apply.

[Jason Moore]

See website for details.

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