The Overreaction Episode! + Pickens Trade Reaction - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/8

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - The Overreaction Episode! + Pickens Trade Reaction

Release Date: May 8, 2025

The Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosted by Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright, delves deep into the nuances of fantasy football in their episode titled "The Overreaction Episode! + Pickens Trade Reaction." This episode, released on May 8, 2025, explores the theme of overreactions within the fantasy football landscape, dissecting recent trades, player performances, and draft strategies to provide listeners with informed, data-driven insights.

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1. Introduction

Andy Holloway kicks off the episode by welcoming listeners and outlining the day's agenda, which centers around identifying and addressing overreactions in fantasy football. The hosts promise a blend of astute analysis and strategic advice to help fantasy managers make informed decisions.

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2. Kicker Position Debate

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to the contentious debate over the relevance of kickers in fantasy football leagues.

• Andy Holloway [03:53] shares his personal stance:

  “None of my leagues can ban a kicker because I would never have one in it.”

• Jason Moore [04:08] echoes a similar sentiment, emphasizing the randomness and minimal strategic value kickers add:

  “Kickers can like on any given week a random kicker can score way too many points.”

• Mike Wright [05:03] provides a nuanced view, acknowledging the predictability of top kickers like Justin Tucker but highlighting the inconsistency of lower-ranked kickers:

  “At any moment, they [low-ranked kickers] could have the biggest week. That’s a little bit more random in the way that that plays out.”

Key Insights:

• Pros of Keeping Kickers:

  • Reliable top performers can secure consistent points.
  • Some strategic depth exists in targeting kickers from high-powered offenses.

• Cons of Keeping Kickers:

  • High variability and low impact on overall team success.
  • Minimal involvement in trades and low strategic engagement.

Conclusion: The hosts collectively lean towards dropping the kicker position to introduce more engaging and strategically significant positions, such as a flex spot, enhancing overall league enjoyment.

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3. George Pickens Trade Reaction

The episode's highlight revolves around the significant trade of George Pickens from the Pittsburgh Steelers to the Dallas Cowboys.

• Mike Wright [09:04] announces the trade details:

  “George Pickens is no longer a Pittsburgh Steeler. Been traded to the Cowboys. They get Pickens in a 2027 sixth-round pick. They give up a third in a 2027 fifth-round pick.”

• Jason Moore [09:50] analyzes the trade's fantasy implications:

  “This trade is incredible for both sides. For fantasy purposes, this helps pretty much everybody who’s involved.”

Implications Discussed:

• For the Steelers:

  • DK Metcalf remains the primary threat in the passing offense.
  • Potential decrease in target share for CD Lamb, albeit minimal.

• For the Cowboys:

  • Enhanced receiving corps with George Pickens pairing with Dak Prescott.
  • Increased depth and flexibility in the wide receiver lineup, potentially boosting fantasy production.

• Strategic Advantages:

  • Cowboys gain a high-upside receiver without a hefty contract commitment.
  • Steelers mitigate risk by not overcommitting to a single WR alongside Metcalf.

Notable Quote: Jason Moore [12:06] emphasizes the strategic brilliance of the Cowboys’ move:

“He [CD Lamb] can move around, keep being underneath in the slot, and being a yards-after-catch guy.”

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4. Data-Driven Insights on Player Performances

A core segment of the episode focuses on the dangers of overreacting to players' statistical anomalies, particularly touchdown rates and touch counts.

• Jason Moore [22:39] introduces the segment:

  “Don't bury Breeze Hall. He's not dead yet.”

• Mike Wright [25:10] discusses Breeze Hall:

  “The potential outcomes for him have changed. I don't look at his risk rating as higher. His projections lower, but the possibility that he still has upside is 100% there.”

• Andy Holloway [27:04] probes deeper into whether Hall can be a top-five running back:

  “Is this a back that can be a top five running back in fantasy because right now he's being drafted at 10.”

Key Takeaways:

• Touchdown Rate Overreactions:

  • Players like Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield exhibited unusually high touchdown percentages in a single season, leading to inflated expectations.
  • Historical data indicates a high regression rate in subsequent seasons for such outliers.

• Case Studies:

  • Saquon Barkley: Despite a stellar previous season with 41 touchdowns, data suggests a significant decrease in touches and potential output due to wear and age.
  • James Cook and Terry McLaurin: Highlight fluctuations in performance metrics that caution against overvaluing breakout seasons.

Jason Moore [48:39] presents a study:

“Since 2014, 19 wide receivers finished in the top 24 in their second season for the first time. Nine of those players did not meet their draft expectations the following year, with eight being considered big misses.”

Conclusion: Fantasy managers should temper their expectations for players who had atypically high performances, recognizing the statistical likelihood of regression and the influence of external factors like team dynamics and player age.

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5. Rookie Draft Class Overreaction

The hosts caution against the prevailing excitement surrounding the recent rookie draft class, which saw historically high performances from rookie wide receivers.

• Jason Moore [54:08] shares insights:

  “Nine of the 19 breakout WRs didn’t meet their expectations, with eight being big misses.”

• Andy Holloway [54:32] warns:

  “Don’t draft rookies thinking you’re getting Brock Bowers. You’re not. There’s one Brock Bowers.”

Discussion Points:

• Last Year's Rookies: Exceptional performances led to inflated ADP (Average Draft Position) for players who often underperformed in subsequent seasons.
• Current Year’s Rookies: Despite a strong debut, the data suggests caution as breakout performances in the first year don't always translate to sustained success.
• Strategic Advice:
  • Avoid overcommitting to highly touted rookies based solely on their initial performance.
  • Focus on draft capital and probabilistic outcomes rather than emotional biases towards new players.

Notable Quote: Jason Moore [60:02] underscores the probabilistic nature of fantasy football:

“Fantasy football is not a black and white binary choice thing. It is a probability-based sport.”

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6. Concluding Remarks and Takeaways

As the episode wraps up, the hosts reiterate the importance of data-driven decision-making and caution against emotional overreactions to player performances and draft trends.

• Jason Moore [60:44] summarizes:

  “Fantasy football is not a black and white binary choice thing. It is a probability-based sport or game, not a sport.”

• Andy Holloway [56:12] offers final advice:

  “Don't overreact to last year's breakout performances. Focus on the underlying data and realistic projections.”

Final Thoughts:

• Avoid Recency Bias: Don’t let recent performances unduly influence draft and trading decisions.
• Leverage Overreactions: Use the overreactions of others to find value in undervalued players.
• Continuous Learning: Stay informed with data and adjust strategies accordingly to maintain a competitive edge in fantasy leagues.

The episode emphasizes that while passion for fantasy football runs deep, maintaining a balanced, informed approach is crucial for sustained success.

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Notable Quotes:

• Jason Moore [22:52]:

  “Don’t bury Breeze Hall. He’s not dead yet.”

• Mike Wright [05:03]:

  “At any moment, they [low-ranked kickers] could have the biggest week.”

• Andy Holloway [27:04]:

  “Is this a back that can be a top five running back in fantasy because right now he’s being drafted at 10.”

• Jason Moore [48:39]:

  “Since 2014, 19 wide receivers finished in the top 24 in their second season for the first time. Nine of those players did not meet their draft expectations the following year, with eight being considered big misses.”

• Mike Wright [29:22]:

  “Don’t overreact to Ben Johnson becoming the head coach and think it will guarantee a bunch of fantasy-relevant players in Chicago.”

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Conclusion:

In "The Overreaction Episode! + Pickens Trade Reaction," the Fantasy Footballers expertly navigate the pitfalls of overexcited fantasy decisions, advocating for a measured, data-centric approach. By dissecting recent trades, player performances, and draft trends, the hosts equip fantasy managers with the knowledge to sidestep common mistakes and harness opportunities that arise from the overreactions of others.

Transcript

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[Andy Holloway]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway J and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome in.

[Jason Moore]

Throat's clear today, Jay.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, no, I'm doing well.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Mike Wright]

Forgot about that. Only one man can just. Music is in his veins.

[Jason Moore]

It's like a coughing scat.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that's a good idea for the spitballers.

[Jason Moore]

There you go. All right.

[Mike Wright]

Thursday, May 8th, the fantasy footballers.

[Jason Moore]

You just gonna cough?

[Andy Holloway]

You know it. You just gave me permission.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome into today's podcast. Mike Wright, the fantasy hitman is here. Jason Moore present and accounted for. I'm Andy Holloway. Got a doosers alley full of doosers producers.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

And we have a good show for you today. We have overreactions for 2025. We're going to talk about, I think basically two each. We'll talk about some overreactions we think might happen. We do have news. We got big news. We do big news to talk about. And you can.

[Andy Holloway]

You are forgiven.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think there's more people going to be on my side now.

[Mike Wright]

I think you're right. And we would be talking about George Pickens and we'll get into the big trade. Mike had just talked about him erroneously on the last show. Nobody agreed with him.

[Andy Holloway]

You sound so foolish now if you listen to that episode.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, but. But he knew what was coming. Yeah, he's a very wise.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I talked exactly about how I think the trade is not going to happen anymore.

[Mike Wright]

You did, but. So we got a lot to go on. Go with on today's show. A reminder. You can watch the show YouTube.com the fantasy footballers. Make sure you subscribe. Make sure if you are just getting back into fantasy, catching up on everything, you click that follow button on Spotify or Apple so that the latest Episodes show up in your pocket. That'd be cool. And that'll get you tuned in for everything that you need. A reminder, we are two shows a week through the rest of May and June and then we move to three shows in July and five shows a week, August through December. Oh yes, and if you want an extra, extra show every week all year long, the foot cast comes out every Thursday. It is for supporters of the podcast [e-mail] so you can check that out. Here's the quick question for the both of you. Comes from Instagram. Alex writes in should more leagues abandon the kicker position or is that in and of itself an overreaction?

[Andy Holloway]

Interesting. None of my leagues can ban a kicker because I would never have one in it. So I am unable to react or overreact to this. Mike, what say you?

[Jason Moore]

I am on the side of I prefer not to have kickers. I understand why there are players out there who want them in your fantasy football. They want like, hey, we need all the positions. We. I like that. Randomness. I don't like. I think that kickers can like on any given week a random kicker can score way too many points. And it's, we just. Yes, there are, there's of course strategy. You can, you can get an edge. Like if you follow the right schedule, the right statistics to point you in the path of this is going to be a better kicker. But the thing is we just don't care. We don't.

[Andy Holloway]

That is the issue.

[Jason Moore]

It's the last. You spend your entire draft season just obsessed, scouring, who are those late sleepers that I'm going to get in the final three rounds? You're like, and then I'm going to get a kicker, which I hope he's on a high powered offense.

[Mike Wright]

Go ahead.

[Andy Holloway]

If you compare that to a similar position in defenses where it's like we don't look super deep into defenses during the draft season. You're drafting them near the end of your draft. Okay, they are fun. Kickers are not fun to play. No one is like, oh man, this is the best, you know, making sure I draft this guy and I'm going to play the waiver wire. Action like that just doesn't actually happen in reality in most of your leagues.

[Mike Wright]

I think that there are, I think for me that there are kickers that are very, it's very predictable that they're going to have a good season. Justin Tucker for many years. Right. Good offenses, right?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. There's edges to Be had.

[Mike Wright]

Sorry to finish the thought. The difference to me is that on the high end, yes, you can be predictive about kickers. They always get drafted last in your draft. But it's also rare for, like, there's a level of randomness where the worst kickers in the league can have the biggest week, right? The rank 28, 29, 30. At any moment, they could have the biggest week. Right. It's a little bit more random in the way that that plays out. That differentiates it from other positions where that doesn't happen as often. And there are other offensive positions we don't draft. We don't draft the dedicated fullback. Right. We have. We love Kyle Jus check. Right. We'd love to. You know, he fits into the running back spot because it's part of the bigger picture of watching football and what you enjoy about the game. When a drive ends and a kick has to happen, you're sad a drive is over. You know what I mean? It's a negative thing. It's a negative thing. So I think, you know, there are a lot of arguments, if people like it, whatever. You can do things to minimize the negative impact of kickers in your on your league, which could be like, you know, don't overly reward long kicks. Make, you know, make them all worth just three, no matter where they're at, or don't take off a bunch of points on a missed kick or something, any of that stupid stuff. I like defenses. I still, I like having them in there. They're the difference. They possess some of the same qualities, though.

[Andy Holloway]

They possess some of the same qualities, but it is fun. And you can target them and you could target the other offenses. And the waiver wire is an exciting part of defenses because you can play a bad defense in a good matchup. And so there are defenses that are just always out there because they've got a bad schedule. So no one's going to play them for a couple weeks. So you're playing that game against your league mates who's going to grab him a week ahead of time for the great matchup in week 15 or whatever it is. There's strategy and fun there that just never comes into question with kickers. Kickers, you draft them at the beginning of the year in the order you think, and you go, I hope I did it right. And then eventually, if one gets injured, you're like, okay, I'm going to swap them out. And this is just boring.

[Mike Wright]

Well, and how often are kickers a part of a trade? That should tell you Everything. They're not parts of trades in fantasy almost ever. So if they're not parts of trades, they're not being, you know, you're not.

[Jason Moore]

Like, it's not part of your trade. It's your, it's almost always the final pick of your draft.

[Mike Wright]

And if you cut them, this is a more important thing. If you cut them out of your league, you can add a flex position.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

You can add more, you know, enjoyment to your league. So that's, that's the side we lean on. You know, I'm not. Been out of shape.

[Andy Holloway]

I stand on.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Jason stands on it. I lean on it.

[Jason Moore]

Mike, I would say I lean on it too. Because if that's fun for you in the league, okay, go ahead.

[Mike Wright]

That's why we play.

[Jason Moore]

But I think it is not just not fun. I think it creates frustration.

[Mike Wright]

Well, it certainly did for Mike long ago.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he's got burns.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

He has a playoff defeat.

[Jason Moore]

When you lose in the semi championship. Fairbair.

[Mike Wright]

Fairbairn.

[Jason Moore]

When fairbairn.

[Mike Wright]

More like unfair.

[Jason Moore]

Makes five field goals and I think some extra points, you're just like, what, what is this? Your, your kicker outscored your, your RB one, like.

[Mike Wright]

And that was the last straw.

[Jason Moore]

This is not ever happening again.

[Mike Wright]

All right, let's talk about that. Big news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Mike Wright]

Well, it happened.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

George Pickens is no longer a Pittsburgh Steeler. Been traded to the Cowboys. They get Pickens in a 2027 sixth round pick. They give up a third in a 2027 fifth round pick. And so, you know, it's kind of like, it's kind of like trading them for a soft second situation. You move up around later and you get a third. And George Pickens is not going to be the running mate with DK Metcalf. So there's two sides of the discussion, right? There's the, you know, clearly DK Metcalf will be everything in the passing offense in Pittsburgh, which is good. I mean like it's.

[Jason Moore]

This trade is incredible like this for both sides.

[Andy Holloway]

This trade fantasy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's what I mean. For fantasy purposes. This helps pretty like everybody who's involved.

[Andy Holloway]

Except other than Amari Cooper. Amari Cooper is like, ah, crap, I thought I was going to be a.

[Jason Moore]

Cowboy than whoever Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback ends up being. But like George Pickens and DK Metcalf are two similar archetype of wide receivers. So it was, it felt like was we're going and you can't be overly confident with either of them. You're Going to lean to DK because he. They traded a bunch for him and they just gave him the money. So he's the number one. But what does the number one mean when you have George Pickens doing really similar stuff to you on a low passing volume offense? Well, now he goes to. We're talking George Pickens goes to Dallas. He's matched up with Dak, which is like this is perfection. This was a tweet from Warren Sharp, Dak Prescott the last two years. Number one in most passing yards on a on 15 yard go routes. Number two, most attempts of 15 yard go routes, George Pickens the last two years, the most receiving yards on 15 yard go routes and the second most catches on those types of plays too. So this is. And this is exactly what the Cowboys need.

[Andy Holloway]

And it's not bad for cd, man.

[Mike Wright]

No, it is.

[Jason Moore]

It is even better for cd. CD can move around. He can keep being underneath in the slot and being a yards after catch guy. Where they, where defenses, it's not Brandon Cooks or Jalen Tolbert on the outside. It's George Pickens you actually have to worry about.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you're going to have to, you know, make sure you're paying attention to the other half of the field and not just taking your entire defense and saying let's slow cd. Damn. Now the CD down.

[Mike Wright]

There it is.

[Jason Moore]

There it is. Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

The target market share probably comes down a few percentages. You know, I had him originally at 31% market share. Maybe that comes down to 29, 28. But he's still. CD is still going to be a target hog, but now the defenses aren't going to be as difficult. So. I agree. I mean this is really across the board. It's a wonderful thing for Daft fantasy.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's great for Dak.

[Jason Moore]

Dak, it's huge.

[Mike Wright]

It's huge for Dak. He needed another target. They didn't get it in the draft. Do you like just right out of the gate, someone like Darnell Mooney, someone like George Pickens in Dallas? Are you on the picking side of Pickens? Yeah, just for the upside potential.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. For. For the upside. Pickens is if you go watch George Pickens highlights and I know you can't judge a player completely on their highlights, but it's like he does things on go routes that very few wide receivers in the NFL can do. You got some, Jim?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I just wonder because I know you are in tune with this as well. Do you have any concerns about the fact that whenever a Steeler wide receiver is traded go and die.

[Jason Moore]

There definitely is that of the Mike.

[Andy Holloway]

Tomlin knows what his subs like we.

[Jason Moore]

Gotta get rid of this has been. Or just the Steelers in general. It's been very. They've been very good at calling their shot. When a wide receiver leaves there are. Because it's like Claypool. They absolutely fleeced the Bears there.

[Andy Holloway]

You know Antonio Brown.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. We got rid of Antonio Brown at the. At the.

[Andy Holloway]

Deontay Johnson.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Deontay. But the the thing about is like George Pickens people people are like well you got also Mike Wallace and you got to remember the context was the Steelers wanted Mike Wallace and then Mike Wallace.

[Mike Wright]

Wallace was okay.

[Jason Moore]

But I'm saying Mike Wallace. Mike Wallace didn't want that contract. So that contract ended up going to Antonio Brown which turned into a huge hit. And then you have. You have Santa Santonio Holmes there are. You have.

[Mike Wright]

There aren't Steelers fans that like this move right now.

[Jason Moore]

And Manny Sanders for Denver had couple great years.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. The Steelers fans hate this move.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh for sure.

[Mike Wright]

I do think that they got the wrong end of it. Absolutely. Now Pickens doesn't have a contract.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And it didn't come with a contract extension in Dallas. And there's some more prove it aspects there but I don't Aaron Rodgers coming in potentially. The wide receiver options outside of DK Metcalf are abysmal. We have an entirely unproven we hope Roman Wilson's around in year two. It's not often you miss or irrelevant in year one and it's big time in year two.

[Jason Moore]

It is but Jason Loves Roman Wilson is the third round pick.

[Mike Wright]

I like Drummond Wilson coming out of college but let's get on the field. I mean yeah, you couldn't do it. And having productive options outside of one receiver in Pittsburgh hasn't happened recently either. Calvin Austin. I would put my money on Calvin Austin having a better fantasy season than Roman Wilson. As much as I hope and liked Roman Wilson in college, that's just where I placed my bet right now.

[Andy Holloway]

It is usually a bad sign for a rookie to be so even like he was injured. Roman Wilson missed his rookie season. For all intents and purposes, I think he only got on the field in one game and then was not active outside of that. So to me that at least gives potential that we just didn't get to see. It's not like he was on the field and failed. That is like a pretty assured hit.

[Mike Wright]

Rate of future family that in camp though.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he got injured in camp. He got injured several Times, right?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. He had a brief moment in time where he was around Robert Wood signed there. Don't forget about that. That's so boring.

[Andy Holloway]

Bye bye trees.

[Mike Wright]

But he could get work. Scotty Miller's there and they could add. They could be a team that goes and adds a free agent. Keenan Allen or something like Keenan Allen.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Mari Cooper's like, okay, Cowboys.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I mean if Keenan or Mari Cooper landed, it would be. None of us would feel like they got a lot worse losing Pickens in that situation. But there you go. And on the other side, it's great for Dak. CD you know, maybe some of the deep shots don't go his way, but it's still it.

[Jason Moore]

It makes your offense overall better and you don't need to. CD Lam is a true number one. I'm not concerned about him in the slightest. It's like, like I said, I love, I love this fantasy purposes for so many guys. It really on it.

[Mike Wright]

It.

[Jason Moore]

It was. There was a clog and it. And the plumber showed up and fixed that for us work and it was fantastic work. And then on top of that, like for the Cowboys, this bet of which is essentially a third, you know, if they get to the end of the year and they go, oh, we just, we can't make the money work and we can't pay Lamb Dak and also paid pay George Pickens. Which not saying they can, they can't. But even if they don't now George Pickens is going to go out and he's going to get a bag of money from someone and now you have a compensatory.

[Mike Wright]

Spoken like a true dynasty manager of George Pickens. Well, living a good life.

[Jason Moore]

I'm trying to give the Cowboys credit for actually doing something really, really well.

[Mike Wright]

Jags did not do something well. They paid $39 million to Gabe Davis three. Three year deal. And now they have seduces. They have released him. He played 10 games last year. He's still just 26. I like to say he sucks.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Because I think he sucks.

[Andy Holloway]

You know where he should go? The Bills. I mean he could just give him another touchdown option. He worked out there.

[Mike Wright]

He's just done. You guys just done.

[Andy Holloway]

But he, he tore his meniscus in week 11. So that's, that's part of it. And then obviously with them drafting their new rookie wide receiver slash cornerback and having Brian Thomas Jr.

[Mike Wright]

I guess that's the good like encouragement that Travis Hunter is going to be a full time offensive player.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

You don't cut Gabe Davis Right there after you lose Ingram and Kirk.

[Andy Holloway]

I had done the Jaguars team and started them out with Gabe Davis on it prior to this release and it didn't change much for me, I'll say that.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Jason Moore]

So Gabe Davis, it was a three year 39, this was 24, fully guaranteed. His dead money this year, guys, will be $20 million. Do you know how many receptions that Gabe Davis had last year?

[Andy Holloway]

Man, I don't.

[Mike Wright]

I'm going to guess 40 or less.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I'm going to go 16.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to tell you. He had one reception for every million dollars of dead money that they owe. 20 receptions.

[Mike Wright]

Bum.

[Jason Moore]

24 mil.

[Mike Wright]

He's a bum.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, but shout out to you, but he's rich.

[Mike Wright]

Dallas Goddard agreed to a restructured deal for 2025 to stay in Philly.

[Jason Moore]

Goodness, that was a really weird long posturing.

[Mike Wright]

Yep. He's going to hang around for another year.

[Andy Holloway]

And I mean it was like this big old fight in Philly where reporters were like, you know, is there any chance he actually plays next year? And well, I'm not sure. And it's like they just restructured to take a couple million away from. Yeah, it's weird.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Yeah. Well, he was, he was trying to position for a better situation maybe. All right, I think that's it by way of news. Unless you guys have anything else we can take a break and jump into our overreactions. Sound good?

[Jason Moore]

Let's go.

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[Mike Wright]

I guess one thing I didn't mention that we could, you know, just to make you roll your eyes, you know, if they. If they weren't rolled into the back of their head because you were proud of the Cowboys. We do have the running back situation there where Ryan Schottenheimer was non committal on whether there would be a lead back or a committee approach. Among Javante Williams, Miles Sanders, Deuce Vaughn, Jaden Blue. Yeah, yada yada.

[Andy Holloway]

I didn't. I didn't hear a lead back.

[Mike Wright]

I was going to say you can't.

[Jason Moore]

That's not a. I have an incredible idea. Dallas, zero running backs on the field.

[Andy Holloway]

Go six wide.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And throw everything to CD Lamb.

[Mike Wright]

If you read their depth chart at running back over and over again, you will continue to add pass attempts to their stat line. Jason, inside of your Google Doc. All right, let's jump in. I'm gonna do what you all think.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm gonna do, which is just.

[Mike Wright]

Overreactions for 20, 25. What are we expecting fantasy players to overreact to? Why should they be careful? Who wants to kick it off? Any volunteers?

[Jason Moore]

I will. I will go ahead and kick it off here because I don't know if you've seen this one yet, Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

I have. Oh, I did. Go ahead. This is.

[Mike Wright]

I haven't seen any of your guys.

[Jason Moore]

This is about not overreacting. And I am saying.

[Andy Holloway]

You're really talking to me.

[Jason Moore]

I am. I'm talking to you and I'm talking to the world. Don't bury Breeze Hall. He's not dead yet.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I'm actually in on that. I'm actually in on that.

[Andy Holloway]

Please tell me more.

[Mike Wright]

I tried to trade for him in Dynasty.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, you're trying to get him.

[Mike Wright]

I tried to offer him a couple offers.

[Jason Moore]

It has been a murky off season at best here for Jason and his relationship with one of his friends favorite running backs in recent memory of Breeze hall last year was disappointing. He finished at the running back 17. This was a guy you drafted, hoping I might have the RB1 here. And he gave you 13.3 points per game. And it felt bad because that's not anywhere like when you're going for that elite ceiling of a season. When you finish at running back 17 is disappointing. But here are some numbers of. Don't bury him yet. He had the fifth highest offensive snap percentage among running backs. Like, even with they started working other guys in, he was still on the field a ton. He ranks fourth in yards after contact per attempt since entering the league. So counting all of his three years, and on top of that, he's still a great pass catcher. And if you want someone who can actually get into the top, into that top five, you really need to have pass catching. And we have, over the last decade, only the only running backs through their first three years who have averaged five or more targets and 13 rushing attempts per game, which, that. That is a ton of work. Those names of the guys in their first three years who hit that mark. Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, Levy on Bell and Breece Hall. This is a really good list to be a part of.

[Mike Wright]

I think he's such an interesting situation because I'm with you on the overreaction. I think the burns are major. Jason has accentuated them. He has not put any. Like, there's no burn cream.

[Jason Moore]

There's high treatment, fight fires. He's showing him up.

[Andy Holloway]

I took my extinguisher off the wall, threw it over the neighbor's fence. Like, I'm gonna let this thing burn.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he's letting it sizzle. But the. The only thing about Breeze hall that changes this year for me is that the potential outcomes for him have changed. You are, you're at a point now where what we're two coaches removed from his draft coach.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

We have talent in the backfield beyond Breeze hall and you know you're going to get towards the end of contractual situations. So I don't look at him like his risk rating is higher. For me that's fine. His projections lower than it would have been in the past but the possibility that he still has upside is it's 100% there. Like if you end this year and he's the running back 11, the running back nine running back 13. Like not surprised. I think that's, I think that's very possible.

[Jason Moore]

And to speak to those points Andy, you have at least metrics wise look Braylon Allen who I really liked as a prospect when he came in and when he first started getting some work it looked like this is a, this is a dude who really could challenge Breece hall for some of these attempts. But metrics wise only Gus Edwards logged a worse explosive rush rate than Braylon Allen. He was 43rd enforced missed tackle rate. He was 50th in yards per carry. Like the actual production wasn't as good at the, by the end as we thought it would. And then looking at the offense that the offense was, was so bad with, with Rogers and with Nathaniel Hackett looking in. Justin Fields is now their quarterback looking look at him last year Rogers had a lower completion rate than Justin Fields. He had a lower yards per attempt, a lower a dot and a higher off target rate. We're talking about Rogers versus like Fields was a better thrower of the ball last year. And while it is a, it is a truth for the most time in fantasy football that when you have a mobile quarterback it can be worse for the running back because you see fewer targets. But Justin Fields last year a 15% checkdown rate like that is only Andy Dalton had a higher check down rate among qualified quarterbacks. Fields was actually thrown to his running back. So see that if we're not going.

[Andy Holloway]

To lose the targets buried the lead. I feel like that's the best, the best thing you said. Now let me ask you, you say don't bury him. Is this a back that can be a top five running back in fantasy because right now he's being drafted at 10.

[Jason Moore]

I would say I'm not, I would not project that at all. But when you're making the ceiling case for guys in that range who have the actual physical ability because a running back needs certain things to break right on his team that are out of his control. And if some of those things break right. Breeze Hall I think is still good enough to be five, but he. I would be pretty surprised if he's not a top 12 running back at the end of this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I hope you are right.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that's. That'll be a tough one for fantasy players where they pull the trigger. But right now, ADP wise underdog Sleeper, they don't seem too afraid. It seems like when you get beyond the big names and you want to lock in somebody that looks like they're going to get all the work, they're choosing Breeze hall in the same, you know, is he and Mixon and Jacobs like, where are those guys going relative to Breeze hall right now? Where's Mixon?

[Jason Moore]

I'd have to go look. I can tell you. One sec.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I'd be curious where Mixon is going relative to Breeze because I would project the Houston Texans to be a better team and we like that. At running back.

[Andy Holloway]

Mixing on sleeper is going at 18 versus running back.

[Mike Wright]

I mean James Conner or Breeze Hall. I'm sure Connor's going behind.

[Andy Holloway]

Connor's going behind Mix Jacobs is probably.

[Mike Wright]

Going just ahead of him, but yeah, a couple spots. But I mean you're in a category of like if they get all the work, that's checking a lot of boxes for fantasy players. All right, my overreaction. No one's going to like this because we're still in the off season, right? The season hasn't started.

[Jason Moore]

That is correct.

[Mike Wright]

Who wins every off season? What team. What team is the champion of the offseason last year?

[Andy Holloway]

The Dolphins.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, no.

[Andy Holloway]

Are winners of the offseason.

[Mike Wright]

This team has won it like three years in a row. This is the Chicago Bears.

[Andy Holloway]

The Bears. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

The Bears are Super bowl champions of the off season three straight years. They got the rings. Here's my overreaction. Don't overreact to Ben Johnson and him becoming the head coach of this team and that it will somehow guarantee a bunch of fantasy relevant players in Chicago.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, the people don't like.

[Mike Wright]

People do not like. People are upset Andy at all the.

[Andy Holloway]

Bears fans, the people in Chicago are rioting.

[Mike Wright]

I am rooting for him to succeed. I would. I like Caleb Williams. I hope he succeeds and is a fantasy relevant quarterback. But he might not be. I like Roma Dunes. I hope he has a breakout campaign. He might not be. There are a lot of players on this team that people want to be fantasy relevant, including a rookie tight end drafted at number 10. But we always, always look at the Coaching transition during the off season with rose colored glasses. All the positives. Why do you get hired as a head coach?

[Andy Holloway]

Because you did something good last year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I mean you are coming off of a successful season in whatever capacity. Like Canales. Right. I think he's a great coach. It wasn't all roses last year in Carolina. Quite the opposite. And Ben Johnson's got a lot to work on. We think he's making all these great moves. That's what the Bears do every off season over the last decade. First year head coaches just to get it out of the way. It's a.426 winning percentage. So you're a, you're a first time head coach. You're already behind the eight ball on, on the averages. There's. This is the fifth head coach the Bears have had since we started this podcast.

[Jason Moore]

Wow.

[Mike Wright]

That's, you know, Trussman and Fox and Nagy and Eber Floose, the last two. They provided a lot of good content for the podcast, but not good football for the Bears fans. You cannot always wave a magic wand in one year. It's very difficult. And last year this was not, this wasn't like a moderately okay offensive team giving you fantasy production. This was still had Caleb Williams. Right. You still had the main cook in the kitchen and you were the 32nd ranked in yards per game as a rookie, 28th in points per game, dead last in expected points added on first down. This team was bad and so do I think they'll be better? Yes. But there is a lot to worry about and a lot of mouths to feed. You have. You know, we've gone through our projections. I've looked at the Bears. It's like you're throwing the ball to Loveland and DJ Moore and Burden and Odunze and Comet's still going to be in the mix a little bit and you've got Swift out of the backfield and like there's just a lot of players where I don't think it's going to be easy for us on a week to week basis to sift through who's going to produce if this team is a middle of the pack offense. Like I think everybody wants to project Ben Johnson making them a top 10 office, but the more realistic outcome is that they'll be middle of the pack and that's a huge improvement for this team. So to me the overreaction is just the optimism. I think we've been here before, we've awarded them the off season, but we need to temper expectations and it Was kind of something we had to try to do last year. Last year there was tons of excitement around the wide receiver room.

[Jason Moore]

Well, last year, I mean, what, they have three top 36 ADP wide receivers.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly.

[Jason Moore]

And it was.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And D.J. moore.

[Jason Moore]

Guys, this is not possible.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, D.J. moore finished at wide receiver 17 last year and he had been coming off a wide receiver six season before the trade. You know, I do worry a little bit about Odunze and more, you know, ping ponging back and forth as being the most relevant receiver on certain weeks with how it goes. So I just think that that's the overreaction of the off season. I. That doesn't mean it can't be your optimism for the off season. I'm fine with that. I'm optimistic too. But the numbers say that this doesn't happen in one off season. In a division where it's brutal. Like that's a tough division. Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, six games against those teams. They know who you are and they know Ben Johnson too.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So it's just one of those things where I think we need to temper our expectations.

[Andy Holloway]

You heard it here from Andy Holloway. Bears suck.

[Mike Wright]

I know a couple friends that will. That's what they will have heard.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, for sure. If you, if you're a Bears fan, that's the only. Despite you saying you're rooting for them, everything, all they heard is that they suck.

[Mike Wright]

I heard, I didn't hear any of that.

[Andy Holloway]

It is worth noting that usually like the, the true bell of the ball, you know, biggest landing spot, which if I think. What, what was that for this off season? It was, it was this higher. I mean, we waited two coaching cycles to get this man a new job because we believe in him. And when, when you have that kind of hype, I mean, sometimes, you know, the generational talent is Andrew Luck, sometimes it's Trevor Lawrence or worse. So it's worth noting, like, let's not overreact because people were already overreacting last year to the Bears. I like that argument. Okay, so my thing to not overreact to. And this, this comes from the fact that right now we are statting out players, we're going through their projections, we are making their lines for next year. And I'm seeing it over and over and over with the best of the best, the guys who were awesome last year, don't overreact to players who had an abnormally high touchdown percentage in 2024. It's so hard. Like the recency bias makes it so hard to look at guys who were awesome. Baker Mayfield, Lazer Mayfield. Whereas here we go, Laser Mayfield.

[Mike Wright]

So clean.

[Andy Holloway]

Lamar Jackson was unbelievable. So Patrick Mahomes is like the poster boy. It used to be Aaron Rodgers for this. I feel like that's almost too dated now. Now he's an old man. We don't remember how incredible he was for fantasy, but everyone remembers how great Patrick Mahomes was, you know, throwing 8.6% of his passes for touchdowns. Then the next year was down to 5.4 and it's like, oh, whoa, oh. And then it's back up to 6.5 and then down to 5. Touchdowns are not a sticky stat. We say it all the time, but sometimes, I mean, there are a few players and literally you can count them on one hand where you go, I know that player is a double digit touchdown machine, but what we really think is, we think of like a quarter of the league that way. Oh, he's a big body guy who's had touchdowns in the past. So he has. So I've got a handful of players that I just want to bring up exactly what they did and how that compares to normal. First up, Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson, the three years prior to this last year was awesome, but he threw 4.2% touchdowns, 5.2% touchdowns, 5.3% touchdowns, all in his normal range. And then last year, 8.6, he went from 16 touchdowns, 17 touchdowns, 24 to 41 touchdowns. That's not going to repeat. It never repeats like these kind of players. Baker Mayfield, same exact thing. He was awesome. And we're like, well, he's got all the tools there. They added a great rookie wide receiver. He's going to be even better this year. The truth is, this is a guy whose touchdown rate has been nowhere near, you know, 4.1, 3, 4.9. And then this last year, like a league average guy. Yeah, league average guy, not bad. 7.2. So it's really hard to be like, well, it's going to fall back down to his norm, statistically speaking. It usually does. Same thing with Jared Goff. He was up at a very nice 6.9% touchdown. He was outrageous last year and that is not his norm. So you got to watch out for those guys. A couple other players at other positions. James Cook, my goodness. Last year we were going in saying he can't score touchdowns and he then he tied the franchise record for rushing touchdowns. You know, 43% of his fantasy points came via touchdown. Over the last six years, every single player who's ever done that has had massive regression the next year. Terry McLaurin. He's one of only 10 wide receivers since 2000 with 13 plus plus rushing. Oh, my Lord, they were flush. They. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Need a break.

[Andy Holloway]

13.

[Jason Moore]

Get to a towel. Timeout.

[Andy Holloway]

I call time. I call time. Yeah. All right, we got to take a.

[Jason Moore]

Quick commercial elevator music.

[Andy Holloway]

What do you want to talk about? I'm calling time. This is my first of four.

[Mike Wright]

You're not fogging your glasses, though.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I don't. I don't think I fog as much when I'm not fat. Turns out you get really overheated when you're really over begging.

[Mike Wright]

Left. Go for another chance.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I got to go back. Adam, where are you? Invite me back. Sit in that hot room, and I won't smut too much. All right. Time in. Back to Terry. Scary. Terry was awesome last year. You know, the argument is, well, he got a. He got a quarterback, and so now someone could get him the ball. He had 13 receiving touchdowns on fewer than 125 targets. That has happened 10 times before. Nine of those 10 wide receivers decreased their receiving touchdowns next year by the average average for all of them. Five and a half fewer touchdowns. That is. That is a. That's more than he usually gets in a season.

[Mike Wright]

Let's. Let's make it positive then, because I feel like a lot of our overreactions are going to be like, don't fall for the trap of the great season. My next one is that. Exactly. But the positive twist there is let someone else overreact to it. Maybe take advantage in a dynasty or keeper league of unreasonable expectations for certain players.

[Andy Holloway]

Take advantage of the overreaction. Mark Andrews this year had 11. He had his career high in receiving. Tough.

[Jason Moore]

Most people are wise.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that one. You're not going to capitalize on it, but, I mean, maybe you can.

[Jason Moore]

But like, for Terry, right? Let's just for a quick thought exercise, he was at basically 1100 yards and 13. Okay. You give him 1100 yards and seven touchdowns. That's. That is nowhere near the points per game that he put up last year. He's much closer to his normal output of being like an 11 point wide receiver.

[Mike Wright]

I feel like I'm gonna. I'm gonna break our order here.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Actually, I'll go to break and then we'll come back and I'm gonna follow what you said, Jason, because it ties into it, my second overreaction. It deals with a very specific player.

[Andy Holloway]

Sweet.

[Mike Wright]

And so we'll go to that, and then, Mike, you'll Take over from there.

[Jason Moore]

Roger.

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[Jason Moore]

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[Andy Holloway]

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[Mike Wright]

And here we go. So look, Jason, you talked about not overreacting to touchdown percentages at quarterback, which are, you know, you do get outlier seasons. You get seasons that let you know what a player's capable of. I think that's what excites people is you now know that Baker's capable of 40 plus touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Right? He can do it.

[Mike Wright]

And you know Jared Goff, like he could have a big week, right? Like, and that's helpful even if you don't draft that player to do it again the whole season. I now know that Baker could do it in a game. I can. He could do it in a series of games. Golf can give you a streaming quarterback performance of five touchdowns. That's nice. So my, my second overreaction is going to be an attempt to make the same mistake twice. I hope I don't make it twice. But it's related to Saquon Barkley and it's, it's simply that we can't overreact to his dominance and believe that this is a repeatable thing what he did last year. It is. It was a magical, incredible season for Saquon Barkley. But I want to walk through really what happened and what odds you're going to be stacking up against yourself to expect Saquon Barkley to go out there and do what he did last year. He carried the ball. He touched the ball 482 times. That was 378 touches. 378 in the regular season, another 104 in the playoffs which was the fifth most touches all time in any playoffs. And you have to look at the numbers. When a player gets that much work. It's not like Saquon's never been hurt in his career. But if you look at since 2020 you had 10 running backs that have seen 330 plus touches. Mind you, he hit 378. All those running backs in the last five years have seen a decrease of 45 plus touches the following year. And only two of those 10 played a full season. So it takes its toll on you. It's very difficult. The other things that were outliers in Saquon season and he's an amazing player. He will be an amazing player this year. Much like how Derek Henry will have a good season. He had seven 40 plus yard runs last year. That is more than Todd Gurley had in his career.

[Jason Moore]

What?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Seven wow. 40 plus yard runs. 460 plus yard runs. CMCs. That's how many he has in his entire career. So this was just a magical perfect season. But breakaway runs, especially breakaway touchdown runs, those are not sticky year to year. Much like that touchdown percentage, you know you're talking about. He had a magical season but it's very, very difficult to Repeat as the RB1. And look Mike, in our league of record, you got the number one pick.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

You get to decide between Saquon Barkley, who's sitting out there and Bijon, a couple players that drop back into the. They're looking good into the lottery, out from the lottery. But this is just a matter of not overreacting to expectations for Saquon Barkley. He is entering his age 29 season. Over the last decade there have been zero age 29 running backs who have finished in the top five among fantasy running backs. It's very, very difficult to get that amount of work and do the exact same thing the next year. And it's difficult. Even like the Eagles, they bounced back from a few years ago when they made their super bowl run. Right. We were there. They lost to the Chiefs. They had some bumps in the road between that time. It's hard when you've got the target on your back as a team like that to be. You know, we didn't get a tush push ban this year. Still going to be A lot. A lot of Jalen hurts. So, look, I'd love Saquon. He's a top five pick. He absolutely should be there. But I think our expectations need to be. We just need to understand how much work he got last year.

[Andy Holloway]

There is. There is the answer of a player like, if you're in dynasty and you've got Saquon Barkley and he's the number one running back, you should in most leagues be able to find someone who will pay a haul, an absolute haul, because they think they're getting the number one running back this next year, and they might be, but he's older.

[Mike Wright]

I would take advantage of that Dynasty. Are you ready to. Like. This is super cash in.

[Andy Holloway]

This is super cash. And he is the. He's going to be 29, essential type of player where he's at an age and a value where you almost have to make that move. You've got to trade him for a haul.

[Jason Moore]

It's. It's so brutal.

[Mike Wright]

And unless you're trying to run it back, if you're.

[Andy Holloway]

If you're last year's champ, which you had sequence, so maybe you were then, sure.

[Jason Moore]

All right, Mike saying if you're a contender, it's what? He's 29, right?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he's 28 and he'll be 29.

[Jason Moore]

And watching Derek Henry, who did it at 31. So this will be a.

[Mike Wright]

That's a really good season. But this might not be a win your league automatically season. That's what you got out of him. And every running back goes through this. And so it's just one of those situations where, look, what did I say? Two of the 10 running backs with 330 plus touches even finished a full season. That is very difficult to do now. The team might not have a choice but to run them into the ground, but you do have injury risk when you get 400 plus touches on the course of a year in a long playoff run.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I'm going to go through a. This is some numbers from a study that I recently did over the off season that kind of flipped a lot of. I don't even know what to Tables. No, not tables.

[Mike Wright]

Ooh.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

It might have been pancakes.

[Mike Wright]

Scripts.

[Jason Moore]

A lot of the things that I thought and that I think are general agreed upon things in fantasy football. It has assumptions. Thank you, Kyle. It is kind of made me have.

[Mike Wright]

To rearrange in your brain a little bit.

[Jason Moore]

A little bit. Because the. The. When we think about wide receivers, right, you think about the year three breakout or if A player has been good before that. The year three, we're going to hit the ceiling. Like this is the year where everything really comes together. And I went back and looked at all players drafted since 2014 talking about wide receivers and it turns out guys who break out in year two and by I consider a breakout is they finished in the top 20, top 24 for the first time. Okay. So they finished in year two in season two. And we are really bad then at over projecting those players as in they're.

[Mike Wright]

Going to continue to ascend.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Of like, well, the, the breakout happened next year. They're just, they're going to get better. And I am talking in terms of your average draft position for these players. They go higher than. Of course they're going to go really high because you're excited about this guy. But they end up not meeting the expectation. So when you. The way I'm breaking this down is in adp, you can average out each wide receiver position should score about this amount of points. And what I mean by that is like I draft player X as the wide receiver 14. I expect on average the wide receiver 14 at the end of gear is going to have, you know, whatever it is, 10 points. I don't have those points in front of me.

[Mike Wright]

But per game.

[Jason Moore]

But yeah. Yes. Yeah, per game. Just so slotting points per game based off of where they were drafted. You're like, I'm expecting this point return by spending this draft capital on that player. So since 2014, 19 total wide receivers finished in the top 24 in their second season. 19 of them for their first time. Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Those players that you would say this is breakout.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. The next year based off of ADP expectations. Nine of those players drafted did not meet their expectation. Almost half of those players did not, didn't come back and give you the points that you needed. And eight of those were considered by me to be big misses. These guys were at two or more points under what I'm expecting them to give my team. It was a drastically bad pick for me. And here's the names because these are not bad players. This is Crystal Lave, Michael Pittman, Darnell Mooney, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Cortland Sutton, Alan Robinson. Like these are players that we would all agree that the majority of this year, no, these are good players, but we just juice them up too much if they break out in year two.

[Mike Wright]

It sounds like as fantasy players what we do is that addiction to potential. Yeah, we want, we don't want what has been we want what could be.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly.

[Mike Wright]

And so as a consensus, we may drive up their adp.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, and that's exactly what I'm saying. I'm not saying that their season in totality be a disaster, but I'm saying we are juicing them up just too much. And so nine guys missed nine of the 19, you know, so 10 hit. But of those 10, two would be considered big hits. Who performed two points higher?

[Andy Holloway]

That was my biggest expectation. That was my biggest question. Is the 10 that did, how many.

[Jason Moore]

Of them are hitting the ceiling?

[Andy Holloway]

Really good?

[Jason Moore]

Two of them. So it was. This is a really. This is turning things upside down for me of trying to be at least a little bit more. More hesitant and skeptical. Obviously if 10, 10 out of 19 returned value, you know, that's not bad. Like, that's not catastrophic. But it should at least make you think about things. This year's candidates, Jackson Smith and Jigba and Zay Flowers.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, JSN is like a wide receiver 15 right now.

[Jason Moore]

JSN is super juiced up and like look, the second half was. It was absolutely incredible for JSN.

[Mike Wright]

Would you consider Jameson Williams in that group?

[Jason Moore]

No. He broke in year three.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that's right. He didn't. Last year was year three.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So where. But it's like, But Jason, it's a new offensive coordinator. They, they're coming in like, we're going to run. We're going to run. You have a brand new quarterback. There are a lot. This isn't a completely stable situation that JSN is just. We've transitioned to the next year and everything around him is exactly the same. No, there's a lot of things that have changed here. And his draft price is going way up. Am I saying that he got a.

[Andy Holloway]

Top three NFL draft pick at quarterback? I mean, that has to be an upgrade, right?

[Jason Moore]

Sam Darnold.

[Andy Holloway]

Sam Darnold, baby.

[Jason Moore]

I forgot he was. I was like, what is this game you're playing, sir?

[Mike Wright]

So I probably still younger than Tyler Schuck.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, we all are. We are. We are all. If you're listening, you are younger than Tyler Schuck.

[Jason Moore]

So last year, weeks one through eight for JSN, one total touchdown. Despite averaging nearly eight targets a game. Weeks nine through 16 pulls in five touchdowns in that time on nine targets per game. So it's like the touchdowns went way up. Just saying. I think there's, there's room for some concern. And the same for Zay Flowers of will he take that step now? He's going much later in the draft.

[Mike Wright]

He'S not being as. I don't think people are looking at him the same way they look at Jason right now. JSN fits the bill of how I would have felt, how we all felt about Terry McClaurin right after the second year. And you're like, okay, now it's time, you know, here's the crown. Become a wide receiver one for the next 10 years. And that's the thing that goes into question.

[Andy Holloway]

The combination of what he did at the end of last year with what he was supposed to be coming in. Add in the DK Metcalf trade and the Tyler Lockett trade, and you're expecting him to be a top 10 wide receiver this year. So. But I do hear you on the data, and there are a lot of negatives in his situation as well. The new quarterback, you know, all the jokes about it being number three. And Darnold was able to hold Justin Jefferson's value, but he's still Sam Darnold.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

New officer coordinator.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. The possibility that Sam Darnold comes in and, you know, lands on his face and Jalen Milroe is playing at the end of the year, that is not unforeseeable.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. That one's interesting. More so just like you got the two names for this year, but just moving forward, it's rational to me why people do it.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah. I've been doing like a bunch of my. My guy whiffs are. Because it's a guy who broke out in year two.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And I'm so pumped for next year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And then they just. They don't meet the. They don't fall on their face.

[Andy Holloway]

I think they don't bring just.

[Mike Wright]

I think Mooney was. Yeah, he was my guy for me, the year that that happened.

[Andy Holloway]

I think I know why that is happening. And I'm curious because you. You've got the data. You've been doing the research. I think it is because the truly really special players are now very often breaking out in year one.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, dude, it is a rookie.

[Andy Holloway]

You want to. You want to go in on rookies from last year who broke out in year one. They're going to crush.

[Jason Moore]

So like I said, so the hit rate, and I define that as in they finish at least 1 point fewer or better for. For the expectation, the hit rate on, like I said, the guys who break out in year two, about 52%. If you break out in year one, your. Your hit rate on the next one. 94%.

[Andy Holloway]

That's got me hot and bothered yeah, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

You've already beaten the level. You know, you've beaten the game.

[Andy Holloway]

Wow, that is crazy. Okay, well, that, that goes great into my.

[Jason Moore]

And these things like they, they do, it does go all over the place. It's not just high end wide receivers. It's, you know, Jaden Reed finished as a top 24 guy as a rookie, but then his draft expectation, because he wasn't drafted very high, he actually beat it despite all the highs and lows of his season.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, interesting. Okay, so my next thing to overreact, it has to deal with rookies as well. Every year is different and I don't want us to overreact to the amazing rookie draft class we just had last year.

[Mike Wright]

Try to stop me.

[Andy Holloway]

We, I will hopefully succeed actually with you. I hope I do not. We play in a lot of leagues together, but, you know, we saw this in 2014. If you have been playing fantasy long enough, that wide receiver draft class was just unbelievable. And it was like two years in a row where everyone was just assuming like, no, man, you gotta go so hard at these rookies because they were who, you know, they were the Odell Beckhams and the people who just won people's leagues. This last year's draft class was way better at some positions than this year's draft class. Last year's wide receivers, they were historically great neighbors.

[Mike Wright]

Brian Thomas, Ladd McConkey, all three of them.

[Andy Holloway]

Top 10 in best PPR points per game in rookie seasons over the last decade, all in this last season.

[Mike Wright]

So three of the 10 best seasons over the last decade were 20, 24 rookies.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly.

[Mike Wright]

That's pretty, that's pretty hard to repeat.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's not going to repeat. And you combine that with the fact that, you know, this year, pre NFL draft, like we're all hyped on these rookies now. I really like, you know, I've scouted a lot of them. I like, I like Trey Harris, you know, he goes 50 pick 55 to a good landing spot. I liked his. Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

He wasn't going to look for that button.

[Andy Holloway]

I liked his talent be a disaster, but like he is not as good as last year's draft. Like these guys, this year's class, Tetterola, McMillan and Travis Hunter, they are not like these players we were drafting last year at wide receiver. This is a running back draft class. And so honestly, if you know, don't overreact to last year's failure at running back either. This class is loaded. Look at last year's quarterbacks as well, you had both Jaden Daniels and Bo Nix as Rookie season top 10 quarterbacks, you know, 29 passing touchdowns for Bo Nix. That's the second most all time for a rookie. And Jayden Daniels, you can make an argument right now he is already the quarterback one in dynasty. And so now who's coming in, you know what I mean? Like who's going to come in and be that?

[Mike Wright]

Do you believe in the challenge of the. It's the reality that faces NFL executives every year is that you, you can draft what is there. And so the illusion that all draft capital is equal. Right. It's like if you're a first round draft pick, you're a first round draft pick. So you should play like a first round draft pick. But there's individuals behind them.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, right. Cam Ward and Jackson Dart and Tyler Schuck are not as good as Caleb Williams and Jaden Daniels and Bo Nicks.

[Mike Wright]

We've had Blaine Gabbard years and Christian Ponder years. We've had rookie wide receivers and running backs that go so high because that's just what is available to NFL teams and they imbue a value. Look, I like Matthew golden, but the metrics behind Matthew golden being a first round wide receiver, if you put him in last year's draft class, he doesn't touch the first round. There are so many players, I mean you named three of them but like the variables from year to year, it's almost like a clean slate philosophy where you need to look at the player and the talent and the reality of the situation in some cases as much as you do the draft capital. You know, draft capital tells you a lot about opportunity, but it doesn't tell you that they're going to execute on that opportunity. Their talent does.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly right. And so, and the only other one I would, I would throw out there, this is a talented tight end draft class. So for several years in a row we've had now, you know, a rookie tight end break out. But Barack Bowers was a generational prospect. We were hearing about him when he was a rookie 19 year old coming in and dominating. He made lad McConkey literally never have a breakout age because he technically never broke out on that team because it was Brock Bowers his team. And so we got two really good looking tight end rookies. And I do think that the NFL has changed and I'm not so opposed to a rookie being very involved, getting more opportunity. But don't draft these guys thinking I'm getting Brock Bowers. You're not. There's one Brock Bowers.

[Mike Wright]

What is the draft capital on Colson Loveland right now? So do we have data yet?

[Andy Holloway]

No, not really. I looked real and it's not real because at least on the sleeper data that I'm looking at, he has not. He's buried. And I.

[Mike Wright]

Because Bowers did not. Bowers draft capital did not chase Laporta's success. People did discount Bowers.

[Jason Moore]

Like Bowers was like, he was like.

[Mike Wright]

Seventh and or eighth round pick. I mean you're.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

If you thought you were getting Laporte or anything close you would have been. This is a third or fourth round pick.

[Andy Holloway]

So this year for rookies, you know, honestly it's almost a pivot from last year. Go hard and deep at running backs in your drafts. Be a little bit more cautious. You know, I still love drafting rookies and I'm going to. You just can't imbue last year's talent and overreact and reach on guys that you know you shouldn't be.

[Mike Wright]

It makes sense. I will still be excited at the potential of some of those, those rookies. But it's all about what you're paying.

[Jason Moore]

It's. It's all about. It's all about the market, the supply, demand and just probability. Like you know, factoring and all. It. Fantasy football is not a black and white binary choice thing. It is a probability based sport or game, not a sport.

[Andy Holloway]

We. Well, I don't know. I was just thinking maybe did you.

[Mike Wright]

Want to do some mailbag?

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe we could do some mailbag. I don't know.

[Mike Wright]

I mean we have a couple minutes.

[Andy Holloway]

Talk about this for a second.

[Mike Wright]

What are some of the benefits.

[Andy Holloway]

Some of the benefits of doing a mailbag segment right now.

[Jason Moore]

Oh my gosh.

[Andy Holloway]

Are that the show would go much longer. I think one of our deucers. Inducers Alley ready to close. I'm not gonna say who it is. I won't, I won't call them out. But someone doesn't want this toilet trophy.

[Mike Wright]

We're just more of a one cut show. We don't really take breaks.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we don't take breaks. If a deucer takes a break, they get a trophy, which I would love.

[Mike Wright]

For them to special Michaels. Mike's got a trophy.

[Andy Holloway]

So anyways, on that note.

[Jason Moore]

Oh my gosh.

[Mike Wright]

I think we'll let him off. That'll do it for today's episode. Boy, I would have loved to get in some mailbag. But we would have lost the producer. So next week it's Dynasty week.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, baby.

[Mike Wright]

Not miss it Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Football Ballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter ffballers.

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