The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs in 2018, Part 2

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary
Episode: The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs in 2018, Part 2
Release Date: January 24, 2019

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Introduction

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deeper into the performance and consistency of fantasy running backs from the 2018 NFL season. Building upon their initial analysis, Part 2 focuses on running backs ranked from #11 onward, providing listeners with comprehensive evaluations to inform their fantasy football strategies.

Anecdote: The "Sack of Potatoes" Incident

[03:03] Jason Moore:
Jason shares a humorous anecdote from their morning pickleball session, where he was labeled a "sack of potatoes" by an elderly opponent. This light-hearted story sets the tone for the episode, emphasizing camaraderie and the hosts' approachable personalities.

Dynasty League Draft Timing

The hosts address a listener's question from Willie Z in Green Bay, Wisconsin, regarding the optimal timing for starting a dynasty fantasy football league draft.

[05:05] Jason Moore:
Jason explains the challenges of scheduling a dynasty draft during the offseason, highlighting the uncertainty of player performances and free-agent signings. He emphasizes the importance of waiting until after the NFL Draft to ensure informed decision-making.

[06:24] Mike Wright:
Mike concurs, suggesting that holding the draft shortly after the NFL Draft provides the best balance between early preparation and access to comprehensive player information.

Running Back Rankings and Consistency

The core of the episode involves a detailed analysis of running backs' performance consistency and their fantasy football value. The hosts utilize proprietary metrics to evaluate each player's ability to deliver dependable fantasy points.

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11. Kareem Hunt

[09:42] Mike Wright:
Mike discusses Kareem Hunt's inconsistency due to his abrupt exit from the season following an off-field incident. Despite being the 7th most consistent RB through Week 11, Hunt's absence leaves uncertainty in the Chiefs' backfield.

[12:53] Jason Moore:
Jason critiques the hype around Damian Williams, asserting that Hunt’s potential replacement may not offer reliable fantasy value, especially if drafted in the early rounds.

Notable Quote:

[12:01] Andy Holloway: "Having seen the playoff games now, I believe that Damian Williams will be the foundational back for that backfield next year."

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12. Philip Lindsay

[15:15] Andy Holloway:
Andy praises Philip Lindsay's emergence as a consistent weapon for the Denver Broncos, noting his ability to produce significant fantasy points despite missing two weeks.

[17:50] Jason Moore:
Jason addresses concerns about Lindsay's durability, comparing him to resilient backs like Darren Sproles, and remains optimistic about his future contributions.

Notable Quote:

[19:16] Jason Moore: "He is a great running back. His pro day was like 4, 3, 3 speed. He is really good and I think with this defensive-minded coach, the consistency that you saw from Philip Lindsay this year, the truth on Philip Lindsay is he's good."

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13. Tariq Cohen

[20:36] Mike Wright:
Mike expresses interest in Tariq Cohen despite his 31% consistency ranking, attributing early-season struggles to coaching strategies and defensive matchups.

[22:23] Mike Wright:
He acknowledges Cohen's volatility but maintains that overall, Cohen remains a safe top-20 running back option.

Notable Quote:

[22:23] Mike Wright: "He is, is going to be safe to be a top."

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14. Derek Henry

[25:00] Andy Holloway:
Andy scrutinizes Derek Henry's fantasy performance, noting his 50% bust rate and inconsistent carry usage despite explosive potential.

[27:10] Jason Moore:
Jason warns against overvaluing Henry's potential breakout, emphasizing the unpredictability of his carry counts and efficiency.

Notable Quote:

[27:10] Jason Moore: "Don't buy into his end of season rankings. But then it kept going."

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15. Chris Carson

[29:41] Andy Holloway:
Andy commends Chris Carson's role as a reliable RB2 in Seattle, highlighting his pass-catching abilities and high yards after contact.

[30:43] Andy Holloway:
He addresses Carson's injury risks, suggesting that while he remains consistent when healthy, injuries pose a significant uncertainty.

Notable Quote:

[29:41] Andy Holloway: "He feels like the number one guy in Seattle."

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16. Nick Chubb

[32:59] Jason Moore:
Jason lauds Nick Chubb's performance, positioning him as a top-tier running back with a bright future, especially with Freddie Kitchens returning as offensive coordinator.

[33:21] Andy Holloway:
Andy highlights Chubb's quality play, noting his Pro Football Focus rating and his potential to remain a cornerstone in Cleveland's offense.

Notable Quote:

[35:06] Mike Wright: "Freddie Kitchens was back. He's calling the shots. I'm very excited for Chubb."

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17. Kenyon Drake

[37:22] Jason Moore:
Jason criticizes Kenyon Drake's lack of production and consistency, deeming him an unreliable fantasy asset.

[39:13] Andy Holloway:
Andy echoes Jason's sentiments, expressing disappointment in Drake's performance and questioning the coaching strategies that limited his workload.

Notable Quote:

[38:35] Andy Holloway: "Damian Williams is what I'm saying, Jason."

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18. Adrian Peterson

[40:22] Andy Holloway:
Andy reflects on Adrian Peterson's inconsistent season, recognizing his high touchdowns but also his limited offensive opportunities and injury concerns.

[42:12] Jason Moore:
Jason acknowledges Peterson's potential but underscores his boom-bust nature, advising caution when considering him for fantasy teams.

Notable Quote:

[41:19] Andy Holloway: "Adrian Peterson will be back, in my opinion, with the Washington Redskins."

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19. Tevin Coleman

[43:41] Mike Wright:
Mike critiques Tevin Coleman's underwhelming performance with limited carries, suggesting that his fantasy value has diminished.

[46:55] Andy Holloway:
Andy speculates on Coleman's future, pondering whether his explosive potential can be harnessed by another team or if he will decline further.

Notable Quote:

[44:42] Andy Holloway: "I don't know if he's the key to getting you to the playoffs."

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Additional Running Backs Discussed

Marlon Mack (#21)

[48:22] Mike Wright:
Mike positions Marlon Mack as an RB1 contender, contingent on the Colts maintaining their current offensive line and coaching strategies.

[50:22] Mike Wright:
He highlights the Colts' high-powered offense and Mack's role within it, endorsing him over other running backs like Jordan Howard.

Notable Quote:

[50:27] Andy Holloway: "He would love Damian Williams to be the guy."

Lamar Miller (#22)

[51:14] Andy Holloway:
Andy praises Lamar Miller's consistency and Pro Bowl selection despite his fluctuating performance, categorizing him as a reliable asset.

Notable Quote:

[51:14] Andy Holloway: "He was an anomaly himself... He was very good."

Aaron Jones (#23)

[51:19] Andy Holloway:
Andy expresses high expectations for Aaron Jones, anticipating a significant role in the Packers' offense under the new coaching staff.

Notable Quote:

[52:15] Andy Holloway: "If Jamal Williams runs out there week one, that'll be one of those things."

Tevin Coleman (#19) and Dalvin Cook (#31)

[55:20] Andy Holloway:
Andy contrasts Tevin Coleman’s and Dalvin Cook’s fantasy value, emphasizing Cook’s explosive capabilities and reliability despite age-related concerns.

Notable Quote:

[55:20] Andy Holloway: "Dalvin Cook has a great future ahead of him."

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Sony Michel and Leonard Fournette

[55:19] Andy Holloway:
Andy advocates for Sony Michel's undervalued potential, citing his increased usage towards the end of the season amidst various team variables.

[57:02] Mike Wright:
Mike discusses Leonard Fournette's inconsistent performance but acknowledges his ability to dominate against top defenses, keeping him as a potential fantasy asset.

Notable Quote:

[56:34] Mike Wright: "It is a mystery."

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Conclusion

The hosts wrap up the episode by summarizing their findings on the consistency and fantasy value of various running backs from the 2018 season. They emphasize the importance of considering both past performance and future potential, cautioning against overreliance on volatile players while highlighting those who offer reliable output.

[59:35] Andy Holloway:
Andy thanks the audience and promotes their community resources, reinforcing their commitment to helping listeners succeed in their fantasy leagues.

Notable Quote:

[56:46] Andy Holloway: "You have a different group of running backs. Last year was..."

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Final Thoughts

This episode provides a nuanced analysis of fantasy running backs, blending statistical evaluation with personal insights from the hosts. By examining each player's consistency, potential upside, and situational factors, the Fantasy Footballers offer valuable guidance for fantasy managers aiming to optimize their rosters for the upcoming season.

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Stay Connected:
Join the fantasy football community at jointhefoot.com and follow the hosts on Twitter @the_ffballers.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

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[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Ah. Welcome in. Once again.

[Mike Wright]

Doodly doo doo doo singing the standards. What's going on? Is that Andy Hollow? Where is that Michael Buble?

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in. It is Thursday, January 24th.

[Mike Wright]

Gonna be 43 year old women barging through the door.

[Andy Holloway]

That Buble's got those. Those unlock down.

[Mike Wright]

I'm pretty sure he knows his demo.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh my goodness.

[Mike Wright]

But to be fair, I love him.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a fabulous singer.

[Jason Moore]

He's great.

[Andy Holloway]

Got to give respect, us fellow singers.

[Jason Moore]

Big fan of the Christmas album.

[Andy Holloway]

Big fan. Welcome in to another episode of the show, the Fantasy Footballers. We have the second half of the Running Back Truth episode going from running backs 11 through however many we can. And it's going to be a great show. We are fresh off another morning of competitive pickleball.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yes.

[Andy Holloway]

And there's a small story from this morning that I don't know if Mike is even aware of. I wasn't aware of it until after we left the gym.

[Mike Wright]

Does this story involve me?

[Andy Holloway]

It doesn't now here, but phew, here's the. Those are the worst kind of stories. The ones you don't know about.

[Jason Moore]

I'm sure this one involves me.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, excellent.

[Andy Holloway]

If you don't know the standardized demographic for the pickleball crowd is more Buble area.

[Jason Moore]

It's from Buble and beyond, I think Frank Sinatra.

[Mike Wright]

The Venn diagram.

[Jason Moore]

Not quite Buble. It's much more Frank Sinatra.

[Andy Holloway]

It's more wherever Bolton is right now. It's an older demographic. During this prolonged by. Since we're not recording, every morning we get out and we play some competitive pickleball. I'm talking paddles flying around. Sweat.

[Mike Wright]

It gets sweaty.

[Andy Holloway]

So this morning we had our. We had a guest, all right. Damon was there and we were teaching him how to play and he ends up paired up with Jason on this court that's kind of designated for beginners and we've determined that what makes you a Beginner in pickleball is generally the people playing there seem to be wearing blue jeans during the.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, during.

[Andy Holloway]

So Jason and Damon are playing a game of pickleball, and I guess Jason dove for a ball. He may or may not have hit the ground pretty hard on this dive.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I took a tumble with effort.

[Andy Holloway]

And his. The elderly opponent wearing blue jeans.

[Jason Moore]

Every old man in blue jeans across.

[Andy Holloway]

The way called him a sack of potatoes.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, you were down like a sack of potatoes. Let me tell you something, Mr. Blue Jeans.

[Mike Wright]

What kind of retribution did you.

[Jason Moore]

It was. It was one to one when I went down like a second potato, like a big fat sack of potatoes. And it was very quickly nine to.

[Andy Holloway]

One because you took issue.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I was like, oh, okay, we're playing like these rules, huh?

[Andy Holloway]

But did you say you didn't even believe that he had called you a sack of potatoes until someone else confirmed that you heard what you were.

[Jason Moore]

I wasn't 100% sure. I was like, did he call me a sack of potatoes? And then I look over and Damon is laughing because sure enough, he called me. Now, in fairness, I kind of like a sack of potatoes. And I did just draft a sack of potatoes in the food fight to the death.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, was he a.

[Jason Moore]

Probably a spitwad.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, my gosh. So I. It just entertained because after I'm driving Damon back to the studio, he tells me that his favorite moment of the whole morning of learning about pickleball was Jason being called out by some 70 year old guy in blue jeans as a sack of potatoes. So that's got it. That's gonna go in the annals of your good pickleball lore. All right, quick question of the day from Willie Z in Green Bay, Wisconsin. And this goes to all of us, including you, sack of potatoes. When starting a dynasty fantasy football league, when is the best time to have a startup draft? A lot of dynast questions right now. And you know, you guys have heard us talk about sleeper, a great platform to put your dynasty league, but what is the best time to have a dynasty draft?

[Jason Moore]

It's so tough because one of the things that's great about starting a new dynasty league is that you get to do it in the off season. So it's like you really want to do it now, you want to do it yesterday, you want to do it this week, like just immediately. That's the reason you're playing in a dynasty league. But it's tough because you don't know all the pertinent information. And a startup dynasty draft is exceptionally Important. Everyone in that league is going to have, you know, the people they draft on that day as the foundation of their team for at least the next five years. So if you make a bad pick just because you didn't know a free agent was going to sign or they were going to draft a high rookie, it's really hard to do this time of year. I know we would probably recommend and like, look, the ultimate draft kit. We're working on it already for 2019. That'll pre orders up on the super bowl, right?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Super Bowl Sunday. We release Dynasty rankings and rookie rankings before the UDK release because you need it in the offseason. But even that doesn't come out until after the NFL draft is done. So it really does you a disservice. I feel like if you do it.

[Andy Holloway]

So would you target like a May 1st somewhere at the after the NFL draft?

[Mike Wright]

Just anywhere after the NFL draft is fine with me.

[Andy Holloway]

I would actually give people the best chance to have a roster as early as possible, be able to do trades, be able to enjoy what makes Dynasty great.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

But not so early that you're at a disadvantage. Free agency hasn't happened, etc.

[Jason Moore]

I think if you're targeting that time of year, I would do it on May 2 as a celebration of the birth of me.

[Andy Holloway]

Hmm.

[Mike Wright]

Potato man.

[Jason Moore]

Potato man. Yeah. The birthday draft. Nothing. I thought I'd get lambasa from you two for shouting out my own birthday.

[Andy Holloway]

But I got crickets vocabulary.

[Jason Moore]

I didn't even get crickets.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, you just gave away like all your top secret password questions.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Everything you have, basically.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's the thing about your birthday. Nobody ever wonders when it is around here.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

There's about a 30 day lead in and a 30 day lead out around Jason's special day.

[Jason Moore]

It's a pretty big day.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's. Let's dig in here. We're going to jump right into the running back truth part two. Remember, you can follow us on Twitter @the ffballers. Check us out on Instagram. That's instagram.com fantasy footballers, if you want to follow us over there. And we always appreciate your reviews, your subscriptions on Apple podcasts, wherever you're listening. You know, maybe it's on Spotify, iHeartRadio, Google Podcasts, wherever it is. We appreciate your listenership very, very much. We're here for you. We want you to win. That's what this podcast is all about. Also want you to enjoy yourself. So that's why we're here. YouTube.com TheFantasyFootballers as well. And like I said, we're pre recording this show a few days early. So we're going to tackle all the big news, all the details of what's going on in a news segment next week.

[Mike Wright]

Probably the news segment to end all news segments, at least for that day.

[Andy Holloway]

It will be. Yes. But let's dive right back into the running backs.

[Jason Moore]

You want answers?

[Andy Holloway]

I think I'm entitled.

[Jason Moore]

You want answers? The truth. You can't handle the truth.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. On Tuesday we talked about the top 10 running backs broke down the truth. How many great games did they have in which they scored 22 or more points? How many good games did they have 10 or more points? In that RB2, RB1 discussion, how many bus games did they have where they were outside the top 50 at the position and really, really hurt your fantasy team? No stability when you're performing to that level. When you give up, you know, a couple weeks where you bust and you've been counted on, nobody wants that from the running back position. So we're going to continue down the road right here, right now. And remember, missed games do not count against the consistency score of the players. We're not holding injured, missing games. We're saying when you knew they were active, when you played them, what did they give you? Let's see if there's some truth to where they finished at the end of the fantasy season or is it deceptive based on their consistency. So we are going to tackle number 11 because that's where he was. Kareem Hunt was the number 11 overall running back in fantasy football. He didn't play another game from Week 12 on because of the domestic.

[Mike Wright]

The off field incident situation.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, the off field incident. And look, we talked about it a lot when it happened. And so this is going to kind of paint more of a picture of what to expect from the Chiefs backfield moving forward. But through the first 11 weeks when he played, he was the seventh most consistent running back in fantasy football. He only busted one time in that span. He was good for all the remaining games.

[Mike Wright]

So that was week one.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And that was week one. So, you know, against top defenses, he struggled to a greater degree. But this was a player that you counted on week in and week out and you couldn't this offense. And we saw what Damian Williams has done.

[Mike Wright]

That's more of the conversation.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Because we can't talk about the player anymore. He don't want. He doesn't have a team 2. He's going to be facing a massive suspension if he indeed actually makes it back to the NFL. But moving forward, we talked about ranking Pittsburgh Steeler RB in the. In the terms of. Of James Conner. I am all about drafting Kansas City running back and in my opinion it will be Damian Williams. I'm not going to dispute the fact that they, they have to add some depth. Spencer Ware is a free agent. Spencer Ware not looking, not looking anywhere close to what he used to be before his injury. And if you recall when Kareem Hunt came into the forefront, it's because Spencer Ware suffered a catastrophic level of a knee injury. So I think that Damian Williams will get the shot to be the guy. They will draft someone. But to me, as long as that draft pick is fourth round or later, I will have zero, zero worry. If it's a third rounder hesitation first or second rounder, then we, then we're going to be in the. Oh crap. Do you actually draft Damian Williams with the second round pick?

[Jason Moore]

I mean if they take a first or second running back first you're going to first or second round running back. You're going to be drafting that guy.

[Mike Wright]

I will not Second round. No.

[Jason Moore]

This Damian Williams hype is absurd. Look, if Damian Williams has the one.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's how I feel about this, by the way.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

I feel like Mike, Mike has Damian Williams in the Dynasty League. He would love Damian Williams to be the.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason has a prolonged life of disparaging Damian Williams the player.

[Jason Moore]

Correct.

[Andy Holloway]

So therefore I feel like you are both in polar opposites with a potential bias here. I have looked at this situation and my initial impression was complete disagreement with Mike and his assertion that Damian Williams would be the guy in that backfield. I have no skin in the game either way. I like both of you to be equally wrong. That's kind of how I live my life. And I'm just telling you my objective opinion. Having seen the playoff games now, I obviously we are recording this before we got to see the AFC title game. What I've seen of Damian Williams, the fact that he's averaging the same yards per carry as Kareem Hunt, I believe that Damian Williams will be the foundational back for that backfield next year. That's just where I'm at right now.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Now if they draft the second round running back, I am not. I don't feel that way anymore.

[Jason Moore]

Right. I mean this is, this is really an unnecessary hypothetical conversation about if there is a clear running back who's got the starting job next year for Kansas City. He belongs probably in that second round, I mean, he is going to be an awesome pick. Despite my prolonged and absolutely true and unequivocal belief that Damian Williams is at best an average NFL running back, you.

[Mike Wright]

Are not watching him play this year.

[Jason Moore]

I literally went with fresh eyes.

[Mike Wright]

You were not.

[Jason Moore]

No, because I was called out on that. I went back and watched every single touch through the playoffs. I did this after watching the games live and went back and watched. He had one great cut on a touchdown run. Everything else was just, look, if you put anyone else in that system, they're going to have great success, and I think they'll be able to replace Damian Williams with a better player. But the point is this. Whoever the Kansas City running back is for Andy Reid, he is a great fantasy asset. When I besmirched Damian Williams as a player, I still was the one of the three of us that was the highest on him coming in, you know, and I was saying, you've got to play him. He's a top 12 running back. It's because of the role. And that's why, you know, the whole argument of running backs don't matter is kind of. It's. It's real. Look, the NFL towards playoff time has been trying their best to prove that narrative because C.J. anderson and Damian Williams, they're. They're winning games.

[Andy Holloway]

It'll be very interesting to see what happens this offseason with them. You know, when Mark. When Mark Ingram leaves New Orleans, which he is undoubtedly going to do, maybe he lands in Kansas City and destroys Mike's soul.

[Mike Wright]

If Mark Ingram landed in Kansas City, marking will be very valuable for fantasy football would.

[Andy Holloway]

And look, you know, there are play. Here's the thing. Fantasy. Here's an overarching point that I want to make about fantasy football because I think it's relevant. And we saw this with the way Tyree Kill. When we talked through the wide receiver truth episode and we talked about Tyree Kill being. He was one thing at a point in his career, and then he became something else. This is a fluid. Like, players improve. Sometimes we look at players, we see them play, and then it's a static thing in our mind, right?

[Mike Wright]

It's like, this is what he is, right?

[Andy Holloway]

This is who he is. I thought, you know, I thought Marlon Mack Jason was something specific in my mind last year, based on what I saw. Low yard per carry, wasn't impressed. Totally different thing that you saw it before I did. But this year, I was quick to admit, most explosive running back on that team, most consistent, best player players do Work at getting better. Players do work at becoming better. And I wish they would just be.

[Mike Wright]

What they are for whatever.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So we could print the stats out.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it'll be much easier.

[Andy Holloway]

But the thing is, is, you know Damian Williams, you listen to the team talk about him and we'll see what happens. He earned what he got as an opportunity this year, and he earned the money he got regardless of what that means going forward. Andy Reid speaks very highly of him in practice. We'll see what that means the next year. If I'm them, if I'm actually in his shoes, I try to find somebody else. I don't think I can lean on just Damian Williams, that's for sure. Philip Lindsay comes in at number 12 on our running back rankings. Number 16 by consistency rank. Nobody knew this man's name before the season began outside of Denver faithful. And we brought it up a couple times on the show because of the Denver faithful touting him. The attention was on Royce Freeman. And here comes Philip Lindsay, who not only goes down there and puts up a top 12 fantasy season despite missing two weeks, but gives you 60% good games, 13% great. You know, as a rookie established himself through the first half of the season and all of a sudden was this consistent weapon who Week 11, 25 fantasy points, Week 12, 17, Week 13, 28 was getting into the end zone, nine touchdowns, guys on the ground, over a thousand yards as a rookie.

[Mike Wright]

And the tale of Philip Lindsay for me is one. How incredible the emergence of him because the attention in the process towards Royce Freeman. Yeah, I took the link for loving Royce Freeman, but the process of Denver running back, I think it kind of played out. And you bet against Phil Lindsay because undrafted free agents don't do what he did. He's an absolute complete outlier. But towards the end of the season, things really, they trailed off big time in the past two weeks or in weeks 15 and 16. Do you think at all it was this. Was this just a matter of circumstance, ran into tough matchups or did Philip Lindsay actually wear down because he is not prototypically sized? Yeah, he's a running back.

[Jason Moore]

He's a smaller back. That's why, you know, smaller back from a smaller school, which is why he wasn't invited to the combine.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

He did slow down a little bit. I mean, those last three games, you know, 2 yards of carry, 1.7 yards, it wasn't good. But a lot of times, you know, people around NFL circles, they always bring up the rookie wall that it's a real thing. And I'm not worried about him not being able to handle the load. You look at guys like Darren Sprols who are small and you watch him and you know, whenever it comes time to like get that tackle, he squirts under for another extra yard or two and avoids some damage. Look, the coaching staff is changing, right? Vic Van Jeff, that's a big problem. He's coming in and you know, you.

[Andy Holloway]

It'S in my mind I look at the opposite. This is a team that's going to win on with Bradley Chubb and Von Miller. This is a defensive oriented team, right, but they're going to run the football with a couple of guys.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no. Mike Munchak is there one of the best offensive line coaches in the entire game. I'm saying the problem is, let's see where he's. His ADP ends up because I imagine it's going to be relatively high. But the new coaching staff has no loyalty. No loyalty to Philip Lindsay who was great.

[Andy Holloway]

But they may want a prototypical guy like Royce Freeman.

[Mike Wright]

They may want Royce Freeman, they may want an even higher a timeshare. That's, that's my only thing is Phil Lindsay is going to have so the.

[Andy Holloway]

Variable of a changing coaching.

[Jason Moore]

And I was going to bring exactly that narrative up and say that I don't think that's going to happen.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Because Philip Lindsay already dealt with this. He wasn't the highly drafted guy on that previous coaching staff. But what happened was he was the best running back by a mile. He was great. He was great training.

[Andy Holloway]

4 yards per carry, came out week.

[Jason Moore]

One and had 15 carries. This was something that all the people that did not invest heavily in Philip Lindsay, they saw what then we got to see through the season. He is a great running back. His pro day was like 4, 3, 3 speed. He's, he is really good. And I think with this defensive minded coach, the consistency that you saw from Philip Lindsay this year, the truth, the truth on Philip Lindsay is he's good. He's really good and I'm, I will put stock in him next year.

[Andy Holloway]

Now he did suffer a wrist injury at the end of the season that's going to require three to four months to recover from ligament damage. You know, this is a, an injury that could lead all the way into training camp and beyond. So that's something to monitor as well. And obviously whenever you don't have a heavy financial commitment, no matter how good you perform the year before. We talked about this with Alex Collins last year. There's variables. There but we're in that variable tier and at least he showed us explosive things on the field. Tariq Cohen comes in at number 13. Wow. Tariq Cohen.

[Mike Wright]

But consistency, rank of 20.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he was. You kind of felt it.

[Andy Holloway]

71 receptions, 725 yards through the air, five touchdowns, 91 targets, only 99 carries on the ground. He is a pass catching weapon. Yeah, 31% of the time. He busted for you 63% of the time. Good games, 13% great. You benefited from a head coach who knew how to use weapons better than the previous head coach. But this is kind of. You know, we talked about James White, who came in at number eight on the Tuesday show, Tariq Cohen. There are going to be games in which a player that is this heavily dependent on pass catching is simply not factored in. Right. I mean, that's the problem.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And you know what? This, the purpose of this episode is to look at the truth of where they finished and do they deserve that kind of credit? And I would say overwhelmingly no for Tariq Cohen. Could he be awesome and finish there again next year? Absolutely. But his consistency, busting over 30% of the games, part of that was game script. There were certain games that Matt Nagy just said that this isn't what you thought it was going to be. We saw something on that defense is kind of what Matt Nagy said before the season would happen, that he's going to use Howard, he's going to use Cohen, how the opponent, you know, how he sees fit for the matchup. And I think that, that, that gives me pause to rely on Tariq Cohen as my running back too, which is probably where you'll need to draft him as a 2, maybe you could get him as a 3. But I don't, I don't want him as my 2. Because if you rely on him on a week in, week out basis, he'll win you a couple games, he'll lose you a couple games. I want consistency outside of my number one out of my number one running back.

[Mike Wright]

I am actually very interested in Cohen and I get to consider the bust at 31%. Personally, I'm throwing those first two weeks into the garbage because that's when Jordan Howard was getting the five receptions a game.

[Andy Holloway]

They were testing the waltz.

[Mike Wright]

It did not take very long for the team to say, yeah, this is not how we're going to run our offense. And then you saw a. The hockey stick curve of fantasy dominance for Tariq Cohen. Weeks four through 13, he was the running back. 12, he was averaging over 16 points a game.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

You're going to have, you're going to have week nine show up or like in the playoffs where there was the game where three cone got four total touches. I mean some things that just are going to make you rip your hair out. But I think overall Tariq Cohen is, is going to be safe to be a top. I'm not going to say not safe for top 15, but I think he's a safe top 20 running back.

[Andy Holloway]

Let me ask you this because let's put some of these guys on the table. If you're looking right now, right here, reserve the right to be to change your mind. But James White, Philip Lindsay and Tariq Cohen, three interesting names. Right? Right. Lindsay, not a long track record. Cohen and White both very pass catching dependent. How would you rank them? Just those three going into next year.

[Jason Moore]

Lindsey would be my first by mile. Assuming health towards, you know, the beginning of the season then I think I would go Cohen over White just based on what we saw happen to White when. When the entire Patriots crew was healthy.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I think that's disappear. That's how I do it as well. Jay, how are you feeling on his teammate? So just Tariq Cohen versus Jordan Howard.

[Jason Moore]

I look, they both are utilized a lot and I don't, I don't think that's going to change unless the change that could happen is going to be for the worse in the sense that if something changes it's going to be because they bring in a new back, they sign a Kareem Hunt for when he's out of his suspension or they draft someone high. I think they'll try to replace Jordan Howard before they replace Tariq Owen. But in the meantime, Jordan Howard's volume is still there, he's still secure. He's, you know, a 250 plus rush attempt type of guy.

[Mike Wright]

He's heading into the last year of his rookie deal. By the way, Jordan Howard, sure.

[Jason Moore]

And I so I mean I think both are.

[Andy Holloway]

The Bears are one of the many teams that Mark Ingram will sign with this offseason. He's going to be signing with upwards of 10 non New Orleans teams.

[Jason Moore]

All right, he'll be a saint.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, he may be a good person, but he ain't gonna play New Orleans.

[Mike Wright]

Man, Tooth was a saint.

[Andy Holloway]

There's Mike's throwing. Hey, let's talk about Derek Henry because I'm excited to actually see the numbers behind what we already know. Look, Derek Henry, what can you say about a 47 and a half point week in week 14 followed by heavy carry totals and big performances. 2915 points in weeks 15 and 16. The miraculous, unforeseen savior of many fantasy teams. Number four. Here is the illustration. Number 14, final finish. Number 32, consistency rank. If you have to have me weigh him between those two, I probably end up somewhere in the middle in terms of where he'd be ranked on my early 2019 rankings. But here's the story for Derek Henry. Last year, at least 20, 50% of his games were busts. Okay, that's outside the top 50.

[Jason Moore]

That's a complete. Trashed your team.

[Andy Holloway]

Derek Henry. It's a Derek Henry generally is what it's been known as half of his games.

[Jason Moore]

He trashed your team. That's why he was on waivers.

[Andy Holloway]

And 50% of his games were considered good and 13% great. 48% of his fantasy points came in weeks 14 through 16. He didn't even surpass 65 total yards until week 14. And one of the reasons I swung and missed on a regression in week 15 is because that week 14 monster performance was the first time he had surpassed 65 rushing yards in like all of last year and this year combined. It doesn't really make sense that a player can do something. Look, I said players change. It's not normally overnight. It's not normally from one game to the other. And then there's variables of, you know, who's in the backfield with him next year. Is Marcus Mariota healthy? You no LONGER have Matt LaFleur. Right. You got a very limited stint and you don't even know what you had in Matt lafleur. There was nothing impressive about that offense last year. So where do you fall with Derek Henry? Because if they give, here's what you know, if they give him 20 carries, you're going to be fine no matter how inefficient he is.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's, that's the thing. When he had his big breakout week, I couldn't wait for this episode to talk about Derek Henry, to talk about how don't buy into his end of season rankings.

[Mike Wright]

But then it kept going.

[Jason Moore]

But then it kept going. And what matters to Derek Henry is volume. He's a volume back. He's one of those wear you down big body backs. He's not going to ever be valuable for fantasy when he's, I mean, listen to these carry accounts through the middle of the year. 8, 8 carries. 11, 7, 12, 6, 11, 9, 8, 10. You can't do a Derek Henry for fantasy. That can't work. That cannot work.

[Mike Wright]

Derek Henry for The NFL, that can't work.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, true. But the Titans figured something out after his breakout game and they didn't go away from him ever. And his carry counts on the season. He had 215 carries on the season but over that stretch from that breakout game on, they were giving him carries that were a 16 game pace of 350 carries. So look, if he can be a.

[Andy Holloway]

And maybe that's what he is, maybe he needs it.

[Jason Moore]

He does.

[Andy Holloway]

Dion Lewis disrupted his ability to do anything because they paid Deion too much money which meant they had to give him too many carries.

[Jason Moore]

If I knew that Derek Henry gets 300 carries and you know, I don't know what he does with him. I don't know if he stinks, he's inefficient if he doesn't get touchdown opportunities, but I know he's getting 300 carries on a season, I will draft him very high.

[Andy Holloway]

You're going to sign up?

[Jason Moore]

I will sign up.

[Andy Holloway]

305 was like the lead of this past season.

[Mike Wright]

300 is a lot of carries.

[Andy Holloway]

I would not be surprised that Derek Henry was in that category next year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I wouldn't either.

[Andy Holloway]

Him and Mark Ingram will have to compete for carries in that backfield.

[Jason Moore]

They got to the point. Oh goodness.

[Andy Holloway]

This is not going away, guys.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, it better. Mark Ingram needs to resign with the Saints immediately so this can go away.

[Andy Holloway]

We'll move on. Chris Carson at number 15, consistency rank of 14. That's exactly how he felt. He felt like the 15th best running back each and every week he was out there kind of giving you a reliable perspective. Like you felt like he was the number one guy in Seattle. Now you didn't know when or if Rashad Penny was going to take the mantle from him. But the eye test, the fact that in 71% of his games, fantasy wise he gave you a good 10 plus point performance, best yards after contact percentage of running backs over 200 attempts. He was, I feel like he was for Seattle what he was for fantasy owners.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Which was just a solid right. A solid running back. I want him as my two. Like that's. That would be outstanding.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, you know the, the truth. Even if you look at. Okay, he was the 15th ranked running back by our truth. Consistency, score. One of the things that doesn't matter.

[Mike Wright]

He was 15th. He was consistency ranked 14, 14.

[Jason Moore]

One of the things that doesn't consider is the games that he got injured and left. And so some of his bad games were that now his running style says like I really Want to get hurt. I mean he goes hard in the paint every single play. It looks like he's just. He's kamikaze and but, but man, you're on a team that can run the ball, that wants to run the ball and did so at a rate higher than most teams in the league. And I don't think he's going to see that first spot. He felt very consistent so long as he wasn't injured. And since you can't really predict injuries, I think you have to lean with him being a consistent back.

[Andy Holloway]

Now he has what I'll call the Alex Collins effect going for him to a degree as well. They invested a first round draft pick in Rashad Penny. Rashad Penny was banged up for a large portion of the year and he will bring pause to any potential Chris Carson drafter. And if he's drafted anywhere inside the top 20, that might be too much risk for me.

[Mike Wright]

The top 20 at the position.

[Andy Holloway]

At the position. Like if Chris Carson falls in my draft, I bet Chris Carson where he's outside that range, he's going to go to me.

[Mike Wright]

He's going to go in those in that fourth round. The.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll probably choose Maelstrom. I'll choose somebody else. I'll choose somebody else.

[Jason Moore]

Mike Davis is a unrestricted free agent. I expect him to depart and try to get money somewhere else. That'll help with the. Okay, maybe Rashad Penny gets more carries because there's so much. There are so many.

[Andy Holloway]

There is a lot to go around.

[Jason Moore]

Rushing attempts there that I think both Penny and Carson could have successful seasons next season.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, yeah, and maybe that, you know, maybe that problem, perceived problem isn't a problem and maybe that makes him a value.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Where would you draft Rashad Penny hypothetically? Because if Chris Carson shows you what he can do in that system, the investment on Richard Penny, how far is that gap between them? And do you want. You know, much like Henry and Lewis where he had to choose between best value, best player. Are you always. Are you undoubtedly taking Carson? Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Right now. Penny. You don't wait for Penny's like ninth, tenth round.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I love Penny. I think he's hyper talented. I hope he wins that job at some point. But it's definitely Chris Carson right now.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm be wanting to see where Penny tips the scales in training camp.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

That don't matter to me. Nick Chubb, number six, number 16 by total points, which you can almost throw out the window because of the fact he started the year with 21 and 0. Did we count those.

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. So if you take out the games that he was behind Carlos Hyde and got like a handful of carries and.

[Jason Moore]

Which means we also took out one of his big games where he had the 200 yards on three touches or whatever. 200 yards on three touches. Because we wanted. When we're doing this, these are proprietary metrics that we're, you know, grinding on and wanting to make sure they're.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Wanted to make sense.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I want it to be predictive for the future and telling of the past.

[Andy Holloway]

And he had 16 total rushes in weeks one through six. So those are the ones we pulled.

[Jason Moore]

Out exactly one through six. We just said he was. That's not who he was. Once he got the start in week seven, we went from the rest of the season. And that's why he is a top 10 in our consistency score number nine.

[Andy Holloway]

So number 16 finish number nine in consistency. You need to look at him much more in the 8, 9 range at the running back position than you do the 16 going into next year. In those games that we ranked him only 10%, which is one game did he qualify as the bus. The rest, 80% good, 20% great. There are only a handful of players.

[Mike Wright]

That was week 17.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

And there are only a handful of players in the NFL that can. They have the potential of a 60, 70, 80 yard run. Nick Chubb was in that in that category this year.

[Mike Wright]

The big red flag for Nick Chubb is his defensive splits because he beat the crap out of bad teams. Seven games against bottom 16, averaged over 17 points a game. His nine games against top 16 rushing defenses, 7.2, which is just above our. Our threshold.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. The only problem with those metrics is those do not take into account those first few weeks. So some of the matchups he had. New Orleans Saints are a top defense. He did nothing against them because he literally had, you know, it looks like he had three snaps that game. That's fair.

[Andy Holloway]

So. But he's one of the brightest young fantasy slash NFL football stars in the game. I mean, he has an opportunity on an offense that took huge strides forward with a consistent running, with a consistent quarterback and a real commitment to him as a workhorse tight back. And he's built to be that. That's what I love about Nick Chubb. I mean, Nick Chubb proved enough this year to have me put him in the category that I would have put Joe Mixon in coming into this season.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And I love that Freddie Kitchens is back. Like, that's. That's humongous.

[Andy Holloway]

For Nick Chubb and for projecting any Cleveland Brown offense.

[Mike Wright]

But I'm saying specifically to Nick Chubb. Freddie Kitchens was part of the staff that said, Nick Chubb, you're the carry us there. So he's back. He's calling the shots. I'm very excited for that Chubb.

[Jason Moore]

I love Nick Chubb. He's going to be one of those guys where when you're making your top 10 running backs, there's. There might be too many people that you're like, man, they all deserve to be in the top 10. Because Chubb does belong in that top 10 conversation, especially, you know, I didn't think he was going to be used in the receiving game. Hardly at all. He projected from Duke.

[Mike Wright]

Johnson didn't think he would either.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. As a starter. Real disappointed in those games.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, 20 receptions in his time. Yeah. Over the course of the season.

[Jason Moore]

So as a starting, projected for 32 receptions. That great. We would be complaining if that was Zeke, you know, saying, man, I want him to get up.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think it's going to be much higher than that either. I don't think there's any.

[Mike Wright]

If you can give. If you can give me Nick Chubb's carry count though, and get him to that 40 reception territory, I mean, then you're talking. Dare I bring up the name? But that's like that Eddie Lacy category of work. I'm still very interested.

[Andy Holloway]

He was Pro Football Focuses highest elusive rating for players with 60 plus attempts. So he didn't just perform for fantasy. He was legitimately a quality running back. What's funny to me, and I've brought this up already, but I'm a big Sony Michelle fan for 2019. I just have a real conviction that Sony Michelle, you saw it in the first playoff game. His ability. I just think it's funny. Nick Chubb, Sony Michelle, Georgia running backs both emerging. I think they're going to be in similar discussions of tier and where they're drafted next year or deserve to be.

[Jason Moore]

Who do you think you'd take out of those two?

[Andy Holloway]

I think I would take Nick Chubb because of the variables that exist that we talked about before the season with who's playing running back in New England. That could get clear over the course of the season, but that's where I'd lean right now. All right, number 17, Kenyon Drake. Consistency, rank of 28. Adam Gaze's least favorite player outside of, you know, Devonte, Parker, J. Ajayi, all of his Jarvis Landry, any of his.

[Jason Moore]

Players that are good yeah, he's not.

[Andy Holloway]

A big fan of that. Well, he sacrificed statistics to win.

[Mike Wright]

I like that you're calling devonte Parker good.

[Andy Holloway]

He's better than what he's shown.

[Jason Moore]

Had a chance to be good until he was just in doghouse and you don't get to play football.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So over the course of the season, Kenyon Drake, the anomaly himself. 120 for 535 and four on the ground. There's nothing impressive about that. 53 for 477 and five through the air. Now we're getting somewhere. But not enough of the workload, not enough consistency in terms of count the carry counts, reception totals, his, his occasional good game towards the end of the season came on, you know. Okay. One of his targets ended up in as a touchdown.

[Mike Wright]

One of his was a walk play against the Patriots.

[Andy Holloway]

Seven games underneath. Seven games under 55 total yards. So not even just on the ground, just everything he had an opportunity to do. Seven games under 55. Scored a total of one touchdown in those seven games. He left you with the what going back in time here, the bitter beer face more often than not when you put him in your lineup.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he was, he was not consistent.

[Andy Holloway]

No, Damian Williams is what I'm saying, Jason.

[Jason Moore]

He was not a great fantasy asset at all this year and usually you got it wrong on the weeks where he did explode. He was probably on your bench in the weeks where you thought you could put him in. He, he disappointed you. And part of that's going to be Adam Gase. Part of that was Frank Gore and honestly with Adam Gaze leaving, Frank Gore says he wants to come back. We'll have to see but I don't think.

[Mike Wright]

Don't forget the Bellagio.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, Kalen, Bellagio high roller.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm not too worried about the Bellagio. I think that the Bellagio is good man and Kenyan Drake can both coexist. But yeah, I would not be surprised.

[Andy Holloway]

If that's who coexists there. I don't know if anybody but Adam Gaze wants to bring Frank Gore back for another three headed monster, but we'll see.

[Mike Wright]

It'll be. This will be interesting to see what is the coaching staff finalize at in Miami.

[Jason Moore]

Right. And maybe it's final by the time.

[Mike Wright]

You'Re hearing this recording. We just, we don't have.

[Jason Moore]

They have enough holes to fill right now. I mean you know a lot of drafts have them picking quarterback and I.

[Andy Holloway]

Don'T want to bring up holes around that cozy.

[Jason Moore]

Well, they lost one.

[Andy Holloway]

They did lose one.

[Jason Moore]

So they got to replace. They've got to replace.

[Mike Wright]

How do you lose a hole?

[Jason Moore]

They got to replace some holes on their lineup. But my point is I don't think that they have the room to spend draft capital.

[Mike Wright]

That's a puzzle.

[Andy Holloway]

How do you lose a hole? Yeah, can't find a hole. That's a stop. Moving along.

[Jason Moore]

I just don't think they can put draft capital on a running back. So I think you're right. It could very well be Drake and Bellage next season, but I'm gonna pretty much stay away.

[Mike Wright]

Could also be Balaj and Drake.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that's a solid point. That's the way I'd lean. By the way, number 18, Adrian Peterson, he was the 18th best running back in.

[Mike Wright]

Good for you.

[Andy Holloway]

Peterson firmly in the running back two finish and then a consistency rank of 31. Sixteen games played, 251 yards, over a thousand yards, seven touchdowns on the ground and I mean you just kind of tip your cap to a guy who. Not a great offensive situation. Alex Smith didn't work out.

[Mike Wright]

That was a tough one. Alex Smith.

[Andy Holloway]

That's not what I meant. You know what I mean? The offense was not impressive. Even with rough. It wasn't impressive, sure, but he was, but they were winning games early and.

[Mike Wright]

He was actually solid. I mean in those first eight weeks, three games over the 20 point threshold for Adrian Peterson, it got, it was.

[Jason Moore]

Up against 10 points.

[Mike Wright]

It was up against Adrian Peterson with, with the offensive line injuries, with your, with your franchise quarterback going down, your backup quarterback going down. So it's. I'll be very interested to see.

[Andy Holloway]

He will come back and play football next year.

[Mike Wright]

Do you think so you feel strong about it?

[Jason Moore]

Where for the Saints they're going to lose Mark.

[Andy Holloway]

For Washington it will be guys, Peterson, Chris Thompson next year.

[Jason Moore]

Have you guys seen the guy's tapes coming out lately? Him working out? He's looking, he's going to be great. He's looking really good. I mean, great.

[Andy Holloway]

They still need insurance for him.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Adrian Peterson will be back, in my opinion, with the Washington Redskins. Part of why I have confidence in that is the fact that Jay Gruden is back as the head coach once again and what Adrian Peterson provided for them at a position in which Jay Gruden has never had anybody stay healthy for more than five minutes. You need an insurance policy for Darius guys and a mentor for him. And that is what Adrian Peterson can provide. Maybe he lands somewhere else. I think Peterson said he wants to play another 13 years, but would you, would you want. I mean, let's if I were them.

[Jason Moore]

Let's just look at this last year, right. The truth of Adrian Peterson. Would you he finishes the number 18 running back. But if you had Adrian Peterson and we're starting him, you probably didn't even make the playoffs. He was so. There were so many games where he was complete and utter trash. Feel like he was very boom bust this season. I don't think people were happy with the number 18 running back this year there. You know that sounds pretty good. Especially because you drafted him late.

[Andy Holloway]

That might have been why you were happy though.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I'm saying even with that, I think people that own Adrian Peterson did not do well in fantasy this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I don't share that opinion with you. I think you're a lot happier with Adrian Peterson drafted late doing what he did. Derek drafted early and doing what he did.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you got Peterson very late.

[Andy Holloway]

But I don't think it's a. He doesn't have a clear path to this again. I mean there's just no, there's no clear path to him doing this again. Outside of the clear path is you sit around depth chart assassin, you don't.

[Mike Wright]

Sign with anybody and then someone gets hit with a devastating injury and you go clean up the pieces.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's look at and props to him. 4.15 a carry in his age 72 season. Tevin Coleman comes in at number 19. More question marks. I mean these names as they pop up and you get a chance to dive in. I can just see what our offseason is going to be made of. And Tevin Coleman, number 19 on the season. This was really 21 by consistency in a disappointment to all.

[Mike Wright]

It was very, very disappointing because Tevin Coleman, the allure of the early draft pick of Tevin Coleman was maybe something. Maybe he gets an opportunity because Devonta Freeman goes down. Freeman went down pretty early, very early on in the season. Early enough that weeks 11 through 13 you should not be seeing a carry total of 24 carries in that time period that they clearly there was just never enough shown by Tevin Coleman to the Falcons that you're going to. They're going to ride him out and especially like to me and this is just going down a narrative of this is how I would be coaching the team. But you know that Tevin Coleman's not coming back to the team. I would rather wear him out trying to get my team into the playoffs than try and get Edo Smith involved.

[Andy Holloway]

Unless you legitimately don't think he's the key to getting you to the playoffs.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly. So that, that was extremely troubling when.

[Andy Holloway]

We167 carries on a year where we figured the path was open big time. Which makes you wonder about. I mean, I don't want to disparage him in speculation, but everything that took place from a workload perspective, it made you question was there problems on the practice field? Why do they have more confidence in Edo Smith? Why weren't they giving him more of a workload? I don't know the answer to those questions and I don't know where he's going to land. But all of the excitement and he's going to be out there looking for 20, $30 million guarantee. I mean that that's what he's going to be out there looking for and he's not going to end up back in Atlanta. Do you agree with that?

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I don't think they're going to. I mean maybe his poor performance will make it to where they can afford him and he'll be back. But the expectation has been for a while that because they paid Devontae Freeman that Tevin Coleman would, would not be able to retire.

[Andy Holloway]

Does he get a deal as good as Jerick McKinnon? Because that's where I think it's possible that he gets a deal in that range because of his age, explosive nature. He trailed only Saquon Barkley and breakaway rate among running backs with 150 plus attempts. So he's always done the big play thing. You wonder if there's a team that latches on to that as the untapped potential of Tevin Coleman. Because think about how we treat fantasy. We go, oh man, we've seen a little bit of it from them. Let's go buy low. Do you think there's a team out there that goes, wow, 800 yards, didn't get enough carries, explosive player, young.

[Jason Moore]

It could happen. I mean that was, that was what we thought was going in Dynasty going into this previous season. People thought, oh, Tevin Coleman's going to be a star in 2019. Right. Because he's going to go sign somewhere a larger McKinnon and be the guy. And I think GMs this year have to give pause to give him big money based on the opportunity laid in front of him and his performance this season. I think he played himself out of that happening.

[Andy Holloway]

It'll be, yeah, that'll be very interesting to see who takes a chance on him. You've got a different group of running backs. Last year was it, you know, McKinnon is there, Crowell, where they're going to end up, you know, this year you got Ingram. Does he come back? Does he not? Coleman moving on, potentially. Jordan Howard. Interesting season for Jordan Howard. Number 20.

[Jason Moore]

Weird.

[Andy Holloway]

Number 20 on the list. 21st by consistency, strong stable finish to the year. I won't say abnormally strong. He only had one game in this year that qualified in our great category by consistency. He busted in a quarter of his games and then 56% in that good category. However, much like Adrian Peterson, in my opinion, you kind of didn't know when you could play him and when you couldn't. Never did. We, we never had a real smile on our face up until maybe the last couple weeks when you put him into your lineup.

[Mike Wright]

The very end of the season was aside from the beginning where he was catching, like I said, four to five passes a week. And the first three weeks of the season you thought you had something special in Jordan Howard. So you kept forcing him in then weeks four and week six. He was awful for your team then. You could have played him, but you probably didn't until you finally had those confidence. All right, Jordan Howard, you're going back in weeks 10 through 12 and he torched you again.

[Andy Holloway]

I think what we know is that Jordan Howard is what he is. Right. He's not going to be a pass catching weapon.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

He's going to be a Adrian Peterson type performer. Fantasy wise. This past year on your team, like do you rank him above or below 18 going into next season just off the top of your head?

[Mike Wright]

That's a great threshold.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it is. I would probably rank him just below that threshold.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I would as well.

[Andy Holloway]

Probably what I would do too, just because, you know, there are games he's going to disappear. He did have nine touchdowns. 250 for 935 and nine. Do you think nine is about where he belongs or is that. Oh, is that, you know that seven.

[Mike Wright]

To nine range is fine.

[Andy Holloway]

Marlon Mack at 21, consistency, rank of 18. His season was difficult because you, you know, he missed the majority of the first five games. Also missed week nine. Had some monster games in there. 25% of his games that he played, 25% were great. That's the highest percentage from our finishers from number 11 all the way to now 21. So you got some boom games, some weak winning games from Arlen Mack, the.

[Jason Moore]

Offensive line in Indianapolis.

[Mike Wright]

That's honestly everything for me.

[Jason Moore]

It changed.

[Andy Holloway]

You got a picture of it up on the wall in your house. I mean it was pretty.

[Mike Wright]

I got him in a locket.

[Jason Moore]

2017, it was one of the biggest problems for the Colts, along with the fact that, you know, Andrew Luck was. Was missing. You get both of those rectified. And that starting running back who is a good. I mean, he can make guys miss. He. He's got some juice and he torched difficult defenses. Yeah, it was a lot of times I remember there was the game where it was like, man, Dallas. Yeah. Dallas has just been so good and he destroyed them. So, yeah, I think Marlon Mack, assuming they don't do anything drastic in free agency, and I don't think they do considering they've got two rookies.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. They had Jordan Wilkins, Naim Hines.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

So firmly behind Mack in my opinion too.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So Marla Mack, he's probably going to be too high in my ranking.

[Mike Wright]

He's going to be high.

[Jason Moore]

He's going to be near. I see him as an RB one if they don't change.

[Andy Holloway]

Whoa, that's hot. So you take him over Jordan Howard?

[Jason Moore]

I would definitely take him over Jordan Howard.

[Mike Wright]

High powered offense, great quarterback, great offensive line.

[Andy Holloway]

Or Chubb.

[Jason Moore]

Chubb.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Mack has that. That sweet.

[Mike Wright]

That's close.

[Andy Holloway]

Sweet pass kitchen capability.

[Mike Wright]

Off the top of my head. That's very close.

[Andy Holloway]

I doubt they end up very different on the year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, the Mac 5 or 6 more receptions is that. I do still have worries that Chubb could have those games where he's kind of game scripted out.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Like we. We kind of saw that in Week 17 against Baltimore when they were throwing a lot and Chubb had a very low snap percentage.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, I want to highlight some more names just at an overview level since we broke down all the data. The truth, the consistency of these players, where they finished and then where they were consistent. I want to give a shout out to Lamar Miller who this year, despite finishing at 22, was the 15th most consistent player also made his first Pro Bowl. Lamar Miller.

[Jason Moore]

He was very good.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he was. He was weird, man.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, he was.

[Andy Holloway]

No player looked worse and better at different times of the year. I think you said it well, Jason.

[Jason Moore]

He was very good. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. He fits in that category.

[Jason Moore]

Good.

[Andy Holloway]

Aaron Jones, 23 and 23 again competing, injured, dealing with some different things. What do you think about Aaron Jones next year?

[Mike Wright]

He.

[Andy Holloway]

So much potential.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, so much potential. This is the. The same argument for Philip Lindsey that he. If you're watching them play, from at least from our perspective, we can't see any of the practices, any of the behind the scenes stuff. He's the best running back on the team. But it took for. Why did it take so long for Aaron Jones to become the guy for the Green Bay Packers? And now you have a new coaching staff. So that's the variables on him. When I think that he will be drafted very high, he's going to. He's going to be riding shotgun in that hype train this offseason.

[Andy Holloway]

It actually matters a ton to me how that season begins, depth chart wise. I mean, it's like this new coaching staff has to form their opinion on these guys through all of training camp, preseason practicing. I mean, if Jamal Williams runs out there week one, that's just sound the alarms. That'll be one of those things. Remember a couple of years ago, Burkhead or.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah, who was it in the.

[Andy Holloway]

Beginning of the season? It was Burkhead or.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I've got. Why can't I think of Blunt?

[Andy Holloway]

No, it was.

[Jason Moore]

The guy went to the Saints.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, Gillislee.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Where you were looking for that first snap. That'll be interesting. Austin Eckler at 24 consistency rank of 30.

[Jason Moore]

There's one guy we absolutely have to talk about. I know we're getting near the end, but you guys need to talk me off the ledge because as a Dalvin cook owner.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure, 31, by the way, he destroyed.

[Jason Moore]

Me and he destroyed anybody that drafted him because the first half of the year he was pretty much injured. He came back for a couple games where he sucked and he would give you two points or he'd give you half a point, he would destroy your team. But in the games he played, including the half a point game, including the.

[Andy Holloway]

Two point game, Dalvin Cook has a great future ahead of him.

[Jason Moore]

He was great. He was our number 13 in consistency ranking because at the end of the year, 15, 14, 16, 28, 12.

[Mike Wright]

Look at weeks 12 through the end of the season and then realize that they made an offensive coordinator switch right around that time when they said we got to stop being so pass heavy, we got to get it to the running back. I mean, it all was correlated with the health, returning health of Dalvin Cook. I think he is. I completely agree with Andy. His future is extremely bright for the NFL and for fantasy.

[Andy Holloway]

Very, very. And he catches the ball. I mean, in limited work this year, 11 games, 40 receptions. That's a lot. That's a 60 something reception season.

[Jason Moore]

Latavius Murray, unrestricted free agent as well.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, you want the devil you know or the devil you don't know there?

[Jason Moore]

I'll probably hop back in the kitchen.

[Andy Holloway]

And grab I mean, when Mark Ingram signs with Minnesota behind Dalvin Cook, here's the thing. They do have to bring in a notable addition in the Latavius Murray category, like Adrian Peterson. They have to bring in somebody because Dalvin Cook, over multiple years has proven himself to be injury prone. Is the wrong label, but prone to injury, often injured.

[Mike Wright]

How do you feel, Andy? Because you're very bullish on Sony Michelle. He finished the season on 28. Consistency, though he ranked 41. That was this year, 54% of the time he busted. And that includes the last of the final stretch of the season where things were kind of in place for the team.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure. And I think part of my motivation or part of my argument, only seven.

[Mike Wright]

Receptions for Sony Michelle, no doubt.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

One of the reasons I like Sony Michelle is in the context of who's going to be underdrafted versus overdrafted. I think Sony Michelle, because of all the different variables that were in place this year. Burkhead and White and injury to begin the year. Injury in the middle of the year, Rob Gronkowski's disappearance, all of these different things. I think what you saw in week 16, what you saw in the divisional game, is more indicative of the future and their desire to use Sonny Michel in that way. And so because of that, I believe that there's a value there that doesn't make him the, you know, a top five guy, a top ten guy, necessarily. But I just think he's going to be underdrafted because. Because you're going to look at those metrics and you're going to look at him and you're going to say, boy, it was spotty. It was real spotty. And I think the player himself, you know, he's a guy that can get the majority of the work.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

And as Tom Brady becomes more and more, you know, Tom Fady, ooh, thank you for filling in that blank. And then, you know, I just think there's an opportunity and we'll see how the season progresses off season. Last guy to talk about, Leonard Fournette, came in at number 40. Was a mess.

[Mike Wright]

A mystery.

[Andy Holloway]

Consistency rank at 25, though.

[Jason Moore]

Just imagine if you started the season with Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette and David Johnson. What a beast team is that?

[Andy Holloway]

Do you know, somebody like that was my monster team. I know, I know. Here's the thing. Leonard Fournette could be a value as well.

[Mike Wright]

Here's the thing.

[Andy Holloway]

He also dominated top 16 defenses, 16.58 points per game in the games against them. So he stepped up to be Competition.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. And the latest. We have heard the whispers from the bushes that Leonard Fournette and Tom Coughlin and co. Have cleared the air after the fiasco at the end of the season where he had the suspension. And then because of the suspension and his behavior, quote, behavior. Sit up straight, young man.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, stop.

[Mike Wright]

No, it's.

[Andy Holloway]

No, it's not. Don't say it's ridiculous.

[Mike Wright]

It is.

[Andy Holloway]

What's ridiculous?

[Mike Wright]

That when Leonard Fournette is on the bench that you're going to hold. You're going to use that in partnership with his one game suspension to remove his guaranteed money.

[Andy Holloway]

You're going to use all of the, all the information they have in partnership to have an expectation for your player that you want. And he made a. Do you disagree that he made a boneheaded move in his suspension?

[Mike Wright]

His suspension was highly egregious.

[Andy Holloway]

So it's just a. I'm glad they cleared the air. He's a talent. I want to see him succeed.

[Mike Wright]

He's not going to for Leonardo.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, here's the thing. There's some talk about Nick Foles going to Jacksonville. I think that's a high, high probability landing spot for Nick Foles.

[Mike Wright]

It'd be good.

[Andy Holloway]

Could be some opportunity there for a team that only needs one or two pieces.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, look, there's been, you know, questions about is Leonard Fournette putting in all the effort? Is he coming to camp looking right? Say what you want. I'm sad for him as a man that he lost his guaranteed money from his contract. He's guaranteed nothing. They could cut him for nothing. But that's a huge motivator. I want him to show up in shape, ready to go.

[Andy Holloway]

Him being in shape, that matters a ton. He's somebody that has not taken that as serious as he should coming into the, to the NFL. And he's a different player, 10 pounds lighter than he is at his. At his high playing weight. So, yeah, that about wraps it up for the truth of the fantasy running back position. All right, Yesterday on pristine auction.com, your home for sports memorabilia, a Tariq Cohen signed Bears mini helmet, $85.

[Jason Moore]

Dope.

[Andy Holloway]

Big bears fans. Yeah, look that up.

[Mike Wright]

I like, I like Tariq cone so.

[Andy Holloway]

Much, you know, 200, 300 hundreds of daily auctions every single day. Autograph sports memorabilia, your favorite teams, every sport. Check it out. Pristine auction dot com. You guys got anything else you want to throw in there? Mr. Sack of Potatoes.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, that hurts feelings.

[Mike Wright]

But you can, you can eat the potatoes.

[Andy Holloway]

And either way, you love potatoes.

[Jason Moore]

Pizza, the hut all right, see you.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, see you next time.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter @the ffballers.