Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs in 2018, Part 1"

Release Date: January 15, 2019

Introduction

In the January 15, 2019 episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast titled "The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs in 2018, Part 1", hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deep into the performance and consistency of fantasy wide receivers from the 2018 NFL season. This episode marks the beginning of their comprehensive "Truth" series, aimed at providing nuanced insights beyond mere statistical rankings to help fantasy owners make informed decisions for the upcoming season.

Upcoming "Truth" Series

Jason Moore introduces the "Truth" series, emphasizing that not all fantasy statistics hold equal weight when building a team for the next season. He states:

“...if you try to frame and build your team for 2019 and all you're looking at is fantasy finish, you're not building it the right way and you're not getting a sense of what that player will do on your roster.” [03:35]

The series will explore each position's true performance metrics, including consistency, home/road splits, and the real impact of owning specific players on fantasy teams.

News and Notes

Before diving into the main analysis, the hosts touch upon recent NFL developments:

• Coaching Changes:
  • The Jets hired Adam Gase as their head coach and Greg Williams as their defensive coordinator.
  • Other notable moves include the Browns hiring Todd Monken and Steve Wilks for offensive and defensive coordinator roles, respectively, and the Cardinals bringing in Vance Joseph as defensive coordinator.

“...we have a whole coaching episode where we'll break down the implications for the offense and defensive...” [11:03]

• Antonio Brown’s Future:
  • With Pittsburgh Steelers considering trading Antonio Brown and Brown having minimal contact with the team post-season, there is significant uncertainty about his 2019 role.
  • Andy Holloway expresses concern for dynasty league owners about Brown’s potential departure.

“...there's no situation. I can’t think of one where he doesn’t take a slight step backwards for fantasy.” [13:34]

Main Segment: Wide Receiver Analysis

The core of the episode focuses on evaluating the top wide receivers based on their 2018 performance, emphasizing consistency and reliability in half-point PPR (Point Per Reception) leagues.

1. Tyreek Hill

• Performance: Finished as the number one fantasy WR with 1,479 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 87 receptions.

• Consistency: Despite leading in fantasy points, Hill exhibited a 19% bust rate.

  “Tyreek Hill doesn’t go off every single week.” [17:33]

• Analysis: Hill's explosive speed and improved route running make him a top-tier receiver, especially when paired with a reliable quarterback like Patrick Mahomes. However, his inconsistency requires fantasy managers to balance their roster to mitigate potential downturns.

“...you have to know what you're getting with him and therefore draft and position yourself with your wide receiver, too, to have a better baseline.” [18:15]

2. DeAndre Hopkins

• Performance: Accumulated 276 fantasy points with zero bust games, 115 receptions, and 12 touchdowns.
• Consistency: Dominates with a high target share and reliable performance across all games.

“He is the guy. When I look at Tyreek Hill and I say, will Tyreek Hill make my top five?...” [21:37]

• Analysis: Hopkins stands out for his reliability and target volume, making him a safer bet for fantasy owners seeking consistent production.

3. Devonta Adams

• Performance: Secured 276 fantasy points with 111 receptions, 1,386 yards, and 13 touchdowns. Like Hopkins, Adams had zero bust games.
• Consistency: Exhibited impeccable consistency without any underperforming games.

“...15 games, 111 catches, 1386 yards, 169 targets and 13 touchdowns. Absolutely dominant.” [24:24]

• Analysis: Adams' seamless connection with Aaron Rodgers and his high target volume position him as a top contender alongside Hopkins. His double-digit touchdowns across consecutive seasons underscore his fantasy value.

4. Antonio Brown

• Performance: Logged 1,297 yards, seven touchdowns, and 104 receptions.
• Consistency: Generally reliable but faces uncertainty regarding his future with the Steelers.

“...he will not make my top five. And I absolutely love Tyreek Hill.” [29:12]

• Analysis: While Brown has historically been a fantasy powerhouse, his potential trade or departure could significantly impact his fantasy standing and value for the upcoming season.

5. Julio Jones

• Performance: Started the season slowly with zero touchdowns in the first seven games but surged with eight touchdowns in the next nine games, totaling 1,677 yards and 13 touchdowns.
• Consistency: Demonstrated a "tale of two halves" with substantial improvement midway through the season.

“...the first seven games, Julio Jones at exactly no touchdowns... the next nine games, he had eight touchdowns.” [31:26]

• Analysis: Jones' late-season breakout highlights his potential for high yield, though managers should be cautious of his initial inconsistency.

6. Michael Thomas

• Performance: Recorded 1,405 yards, nine touchdowns, and 125 receptions.
• Consistency: Surprisingly showed inconsistency with a 25% bust rate, despite high target numbers.

“...a bust rate of a quarter of his games.” [34:25]

• Analysis: Thomas' high reception count should typically signify reliability, yet his inconsistency this season suggests potential defensive schemes limiting his effectiveness, warranting a cautious approach in drafts.

7. Robert Woods

• Performance: Achieved 1,570 yards, six touchdowns, and 86 receptions.
• Consistency: Maintained a 12th ranking in consistency metrics, offering steady production without significant busts.

“He will be great. He’s gonna do what he did this year, next year.” [50:03]

• Analysis: Woods emerges as a strong value pick, especially in leagues where securing a reliable third WR is essential. His versatility and consistent performance make him an attractive option for balanced rosters.

Closing Remarks

The episode wraps up with a brief mention of the next show's focus on additional wide receivers and tease about uncovering hidden gems for the upcoming fantasy season. The hosts encourage listeners to stay tuned for continued analysis in their "Truth" series and maintain engagement through their community platforms.

Notable Quotes

• Jason Moore on Building Teams:

  “...if you try to frame and build your team for 2019 and all you're looking at is fantasy finish, you're not building it the right way...” [03:35]

• Andy Holloway on DeAndre Hopkins:

  “He is maybe the best wide receiver right now in football. And so he belongs in the discussion for the number one pick.” [23:41]

• Mike Wright on Mike Evans' Performance:

  “...there's a lot to like about Mike Evans heading into next year.” [41:40]

Conclusion

This episode provides a thorough examination of the top fantasy wide receivers from the 2018 NFL season, emphasizing the importance of consistency and understanding each player's true impact beyond their raw statistics. By dissecting performances, consistency rates, and future implications, the Fantasy Footballers equip listeners with the knowledge to make strategic decisions in their fantasy leagues for the 2019 season.