The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs in 2018, Part 1

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs in 2018, Part 1"

Release Date: January 15, 2019

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Introduction

In the January 15, 2019 episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast titled "The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs in 2018, Part 1", hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deep into the performance and consistency of fantasy wide receivers from the 2018 NFL season. This episode marks the beginning of their comprehensive "Truth" series, aimed at providing nuanced insights beyond mere statistical rankings to help fantasy owners make informed decisions for the upcoming season.

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Upcoming "Truth" Series

Jason Moore introduces the "Truth" series, emphasizing that not all fantasy statistics hold equal weight when building a team for the next season. He states:

“...if you try to frame and build your team for 2019 and all you're looking at is fantasy finish, you're not building it the right way and you're not getting a sense of what that player will do on your roster.” [03:35]

The series will explore each position's true performance metrics, including consistency, home/road splits, and the real impact of owning specific players on fantasy teams.

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News and Notes

Before diving into the main analysis, the hosts touch upon recent NFL developments:

• Coaching Changes:
  • The Jets hired Adam Gase as their head coach and Greg Williams as their defensive coordinator.
  • Other notable moves include the Browns hiring Todd Monken and Steve Wilks for offensive and defensive coordinator roles, respectively, and the Cardinals bringing in Vance Joseph as defensive coordinator.

“...we have a whole coaching episode where we'll break down the implications for the offense and defensive...” [11:03]

• Antonio Brown’s Future:
  • With Pittsburgh Steelers considering trading Antonio Brown and Brown having minimal contact with the team post-season, there is significant uncertainty about his 2019 role.
  • Andy Holloway expresses concern for dynasty league owners about Brown’s potential departure.

“...there's no situation. I can’t think of one where he doesn’t take a slight step backwards for fantasy.” [13:34]

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Main Segment: Wide Receiver Analysis

The core of the episode focuses on evaluating the top wide receivers based on their 2018 performance, emphasizing consistency and reliability in half-point PPR (Point Per Reception) leagues.

1. Tyreek Hill

• Performance: Finished as the number one fantasy WR with 1,479 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 87 receptions.

• Consistency: Despite leading in fantasy points, Hill exhibited a 19% bust rate.

  “Tyreek Hill doesn’t go off every single week.” [17:33]

• Analysis: Hill's explosive speed and improved route running make him a top-tier receiver, especially when paired with a reliable quarterback like Patrick Mahomes. However, his inconsistency requires fantasy managers to balance their roster to mitigate potential downturns.

“...you have to know what you're getting with him and therefore draft and position yourself with your wide receiver, too, to have a better baseline.” [18:15]

2. DeAndre Hopkins

• Performance: Accumulated 276 fantasy points with zero bust games, 115 receptions, and 12 touchdowns.
• Consistency: Dominates with a high target share and reliable performance across all games.

“He is the guy. When I look at Tyreek Hill and I say, will Tyreek Hill make my top five?...” [21:37]

• Analysis: Hopkins stands out for his reliability and target volume, making him a safer bet for fantasy owners seeking consistent production.

3. Devonta Adams

• Performance: Secured 276 fantasy points with 111 receptions, 1,386 yards, and 13 touchdowns. Like Hopkins, Adams had zero bust games.
• Consistency: Exhibited impeccable consistency without any underperforming games.

“...15 games, 111 catches, 1386 yards, 169 targets and 13 touchdowns. Absolutely dominant.” [24:24]

• Analysis: Adams' seamless connection with Aaron Rodgers and his high target volume position him as a top contender alongside Hopkins. His double-digit touchdowns across consecutive seasons underscore his fantasy value.

4. Antonio Brown

• Performance: Logged 1,297 yards, seven touchdowns, and 104 receptions.
• Consistency: Generally reliable but faces uncertainty regarding his future with the Steelers.

“...he will not make my top five. And I absolutely love Tyreek Hill.” [29:12]

• Analysis: While Brown has historically been a fantasy powerhouse, his potential trade or departure could significantly impact his fantasy standing and value for the upcoming season.

5. Julio Jones

• Performance: Started the season slowly with zero touchdowns in the first seven games but surged with eight touchdowns in the next nine games, totaling 1,677 yards and 13 touchdowns.
• Consistency: Demonstrated a "tale of two halves" with substantial improvement midway through the season.

“...the first seven games, Julio Jones at exactly no touchdowns... the next nine games, he had eight touchdowns.” [31:26]

• Analysis: Jones' late-season breakout highlights his potential for high yield, though managers should be cautious of his initial inconsistency.

6. Michael Thomas

• Performance: Recorded 1,405 yards, nine touchdowns, and 125 receptions.
• Consistency: Surprisingly showed inconsistency with a 25% bust rate, despite high target numbers.

“...a bust rate of a quarter of his games.” [34:25]

• Analysis: Thomas' high reception count should typically signify reliability, yet his inconsistency this season suggests potential defensive schemes limiting his effectiveness, warranting a cautious approach in drafts.

7. Robert Woods

• Performance: Achieved 1,570 yards, six touchdowns, and 86 receptions.
• Consistency: Maintained a 12th ranking in consistency metrics, offering steady production without significant busts.

“He will be great. He’s gonna do what he did this year, next year.” [50:03]

• Analysis: Woods emerges as a strong value pick, especially in leagues where securing a reliable third WR is essential. His versatility and consistent performance make him an attractive option for balanced rosters.

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Closing Remarks

The episode wraps up with a brief mention of the next show's focus on additional wide receivers and tease about uncovering hidden gems for the upcoming fantasy season. The hosts encourage listeners to stay tuned for continued analysis in their "Truth" series and maintain engagement through their community platforms.

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Notable Quotes

• Jason Moore on Building Teams:

  “...if you try to frame and build your team for 2019 and all you're looking at is fantasy finish, you're not building it the right way...” [03:35]

• Andy Holloway on DeAndre Hopkins:

  “He is maybe the best wide receiver right now in football. And so he belongs in the discussion for the number one pick.” [23:41]

• Mike Wright on Mike Evans' Performance:

  “...there's a lot to like about Mike Evans heading into next year.” [41:40]

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Conclusion

This episode provides a thorough examination of the top fantasy wide receivers from the 2018 NFL season, emphasizing the importance of consistency and understanding each player's true impact beyond their raw statistics. By dissecting performances, consistency rates, and future implications, the Fantasy Footballers equip listeners with the knowledge to make strategic decisions in their fantasy leagues for the 2019 season.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, Foot Clan, if you enjoy us three idiots talking to you about football, then you'll love us talking to you about nothing. Absolutely nothing at all. You have to check out our other podcast, the Spitballers Podcast. Check it out wherever you listen. It's just a comedy show where we have a good time. People are liking it. We just reached 1 million downloads on our Spitballers podcast. You got to go check it out. You'll enjoy it. Spitballers pod.com welcome to the fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from Pristine Auction.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome back. Oh, it's time to get you right. Time to get you ready. And we're all back here at the studio. Welcome back to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Andy, Mike and Jason. Jason, back from a churro filled trip. How was the snack count?

[Andy Holloway]

The snack count was 100. I kept the snap snack percentage at 100. And a huge thank you to. I don't remember who it was on Twitter. Who photoshopped my already great picture.

[Jason Moore]

I noticed that your picture had four churros. They put in an additional four.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. My wife made me a shirt that just said churros, churros, churros, churros. Which was awesome. And so I bought.

[Jason Moore]

That's a complete sentence in your household.

[Andy Holloway]

Churros, churros, churros, churros. And then they doubled it up and had eight churros in my hands, eight churros on my shirt. It was great. It's now my Instagram picture.

[Mike Wright]

We promised the people. It might have been on the foot cast. I don't remember. We promised that. That was not just a stage photo. There was no way. That was for your family. You ate all four of those churros. Please confirm.

[Andy Holloway]

I will 100% confirm that I did. And good for you. More than that, I think there, I think I was well, well in excess of 20 churros on the trip in four days.

[Mike Wright]

Your entire vacation budget was churros?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, I, I got a little bit of debt right now.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they're very expensive.

[Andy Holloway]

No, they're like four. $4.75. So a $5 bill is a churro to me.

[Mike Wright]

Look at the profit margin on those churros. What do they cost, Disney? Like 20 cents.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So you had a good time?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I had a lot of churros. I'm refreshed now. I'm excited, though, to get into this. We talk about this series all year long, the Truth series, where we, you know, it's like, not every fantasy stat on the year is created equal. Some help you, some are trash, some.

[Jason Moore]

Are made for Derek Henry.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

And so we are. We're breaking out the truth episodes over the next couple weeks, looking at the each position, where the fantasy finish was and what the truth was about consistency, about how they performed home road splits. What was the reality of owning that player? That's what it comes down to is because if you try to frame and build your team for 2019 and all you're looking at is fantasy finish, you're not building it the right way and you're not getting a sense of what that player will do on your roster. Is that fair?

[Mike Wright]

Very fair.

[Jason Moore]

So that's what these episodes are all about. Stay with us over the next couple weeks. These are some of the most enjoyed episodes by listeners in this kind of prolonged buy period as we get into the fantasy playoffs and talk through exactly what's going on as we head into 2019 free agency. All of that. All right, follow us on twitter@the ffballers. The website's the fantasy footballers.com and look, Jason, you missed the AMA episode. So we've got a quick question for you.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, fantastic.

[Jason Moore]

Because you weren't here for the AMA last week, and that is, we'll extend one of those questions to you that the listeners want to know. And that is, what is your weirdest hobby? And somebody asked us that question. Weirdest hobby. Examples of a weird hobby would be stamp collecting, magic tricks. Maybe you're a big Lord of the Rings fan. Something like that.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure, man. Can this be all time?

[Jason Moore]

Sure. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Because we had to dig into the past. We have no hobbies now.

[Jason Moore]

We're parents.

[Andy Holloway]

That's what my hobby is. Fantasy football. Ever heard of it? I was very big into magic the Gathering. Yeah. At one point. Oh, I had a blast with that trading and.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, wow.

[Andy Holloway]

And playing.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think I knew that.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, well, that was what.

[Mike Wright]

I knew that.

[Jason Moore]

Did you?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So it's been. It's been a minute. Hearthstones, you know, kind of taking over the trading card game, but. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's get into the news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league presented by Sleeper.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Obviously had the divisional round matchups. Well, you know, the Rams, the Chiefs, the Patriots, the Saints took care of business. The most surprising game of the week was certainly the Patriot game. That just wasn't a game. I mean, I kind of built my day around watching that game.

[Mike Wright]

Right, right.

[Jason Moore]

And it was over. And I kind of felt like, what am I supposed to do now. I mean, it was just like it was over at halftime because it was over so fast. I was just like, oh, man, I got to do something around the house. Like, I don't have anything to do because I don't want to watch this doldrum of an attempt to come back.

[Andy Holloway]

I knew when we finished, so we made our brackets a couple weeks ago, and I knew that when we were done, we had made a mistake individually we didn't look at. While we were making our own brackets, we each picked the Patriots to lose that game against three different opponents. And as soon as that was over, I was like, this is going to come back. Like the Patriots and Foxborough have to buy that is. That is going to not.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And so now you've got the Rams, Saints next week, and the Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs. Look, if you're. If you're the Chiefs, you are really, really, really happy you got home field.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Because the Patriots haven't been the same away from Foxborough this year. It should be a great game. I don't expect New England to go dismantle them the way they did, you know, Los Angeles. But, you know, I've been surprised by Bill Belichick before, and it is. Of all the opponents you don't want Pat Mahomes to have in the title game, it's the one guy that can kind of unlock the secret key to your weaknesses. And then you've got to adjust as a. Basically a rookie on the fly. So that'll be interesting. I still have the Chiefs and the Rams in the Super Bowl.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, you both picked the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Andy, you picked them to win.

[Jason Moore]

Correct?

[Andy Holloway]

Is that correct? My. My bracket is extraordinarily lopsided. My AFC picks, I got the Chargers in Baltimore and then every other thing I got wrong. My NFC picks are 100% right. Cowboys, Eagles, Saints and the Rams. So I'm 50. 50.

[Jason Moore]

All right, some quick news. As I said before we get into the truth about fantasy wide receivers, that's where we're going to start our truth episodes. The jets have hired Adam Gaze as their head coach. We didn't get to talk about it on the show yet. And as. As I said on Twitter, behold, stink together. Jets expected to hire defensive coordinator Greg Williams.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that'll be fun.

[Jason Moore]

So Adam Gaze and Greg Williams now on the Jets. Okay, look, there are jets fans out there. They all responded to my Twitter. It's saying, why do you dislike Greg Williams? I agree. The results, the results on the field have Been fine. That's not really what I'm speaking to. I'm speaking to the man. He's not the most likable character in the room. He's also got a kind of a history in the NFL.

[Andy Holloway]

He was the leader of bounty gate. That's something that we can just say because it's true. And he was suspended and kicked out of the league for a little bit.

[Mike Wright]

He comes back, but then he put on some glasses.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

And got a little gray in his hair. Did his hair a little different. If he could do a third complete makeover before he gets to the Jets.

[Jason Moore]

So what do you think about amazing. What do you think about B hole in the Jets? Adam Gay is now the head coach.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. They needed toilet paper for the dc.

[Jason Moore]

They got sandpaper.

[Mike Wright]

It's strange because if you look at the success of Adam Gase offenses, he's supposed to be this offensive guru, a quarterback whisperer. He had success with Peyton Manning.

[Andy Holloway]

That's it.

[Jason Moore]

It's hard, though. I think, like, if I, like if the Cardinals had drafted on Gays, I certainly would be looking for the silver lining. And my silver lining story with Adam.

[Mike Wright]

Gaze has been he was very good with Peyton Manning.

[Jason Moore]

Sure. Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

What else would this silver lining be? I'm curious.

[Jason Moore]

Well, Ryan Tannehill has been very, very hurt and very injured. And so Adam Gase is. Look, Sam Darnold is a better weapon to mold as a quarterback and offensive guy than Ryan Tannehill is. And this team was not, I think, as far away from having success as I think the. Their ownership thought when firing Todd Bowles. I thought this team had a chance to come back next year and, you know, compete for second in the division, which is really the goal there. Browns hired Todd Monkian as their offensive coordinator and Steve Wilkes as their defensive coordinator.

[Mike Wright]

I think those are both great hires.

[Jason Moore]

They are. They are. And Freddy Kitchens. Congrats again. Good dude. Bengals fired Hugh Jackson. Surprising. Cardinals hired Vance Joseph as their D.C. another good hire.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I agree.

[Jason Moore]

Had coach experience behind Cliff Kingsbury.

[Andy Holloway]

We've seen a lot of history of when. When a. When a coordinator is very successful at their job. They go to become a head coach, and they struggle there. When they go back to being a coordinator, it's like, ah, yes, that's where you belong. That's the hope here with Vance Joseph.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And it reminds me a little bit about Mike. You mentioned this. The Rams, when they brought in Sean McVeigh.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

They went out and they got someone with experience. They brought in Wade Phillips.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Defensive Coordinator. All right. Gary Kubiak is not actually going to be the Broncos offensive coordinator. Pump fake.

[Andy Holloway]

He's meeting with the Buccaneers. Right. Right now, I believe.

[Jason Moore]

The Buccaneers.

[Andy Holloway]

No, no, the Jaguars.

[Jason Moore]

I was going to say it doesn't make sense with the buzzer.

[Mike Wright]

The Jaguars. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Bruce Arians is going to try to talk D. Jacks into staying. By the way, if I was Djax, I would consider staying. Greg Roman, offensive coordinator in Baltimore promoted from the tight ends coach.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

Mind you, we're gonna, we're going through these as news blurbs right now, but we have a whole coaching episode where we'll break down the implications for the offense and defensive, you know, position players at a future time when it's all settled.

[Andy Holloway]

And you do not want to miss that. Even if, even if you take some time off or whatever when you come back, make sure you find that episode. I think it's the most valuable off season episode that is the. You absolute can't miss because you need coaching. We've seen it year after year. Coaching makes all the difference in the world. This is, you know, you look at Christian McCaffrey and hit the season he had and you look at the coaching discussions around North Turner and the fact that he uses a workhorse back, we're going to dig into these deep and you do not want to miss that episode.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, just look at Todd Gurley. I mean that, that Todd Gurley Transition Fisher to McVay defined the first round the following year and most championships with singular coaching changes.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

And in recent years, you've seen that with Mitch Trubisky too, and other head coach changes. Big deal. Chuck Pagano is the new D.C. in Chicago replacing Vic Fangio. Probably the right move. I mean, good move for the Bears. Steve Sarkeesian, originally it was reported he was going to be the OC without play calling duty powers in Arizona. Instead, he's going to return to the University of Alabama.

[Mike Wright]

Shoot.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Darn. And then the Falcons have reunited with dirt cutter as their offensive coordinator. This is one of the moves that has pretty big fantasy implications.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm good with it.

[Jason Moore]

And then to catch you up on what's going on with this Antonio Brown fella.

[Andy Holloway]

You know how we had the. We had the bell drop for Levy on bell. We need some kind of Brown sound effect.

[Jason Moore]

Brown sound. A brown sound.

[Mike Wright]

Joe, you don't want to play the Brown sound.

[Andy Holloway]

No, no.

[Mike Wright]

Our listeners will not be happy.

[Andy Holloway]

Regret it.

[Mike Wright]

We will, we will fill the streets. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Here, look, it's not, it's not trending in a positive direction. That's the longest flush, man. That flush. That does not. That is not a water. That is not an efficient. For the water use. Art Rooney, Steelers owner open to trading Antonio Brown, said it was hard to envision him being with the team in 2019. The team hasn't spoken with him since the end of the season. This is not going the direction of staying with Pittsburgh.

[Mike Wright]

That escalated quickly.

[Andy Holloway]

That's bad news for Antonio Brown. I can just tell you as a dynasty owner. That's just.

[Jason Moore]

It's not good.

[Andy Holloway]

No, there's. There's no situation. I looked at it like I can't think of one, not one single situation where I don't think he takes a slight step backwards for fantasy. It will.

[Jason Moore]

Even if he went to New England, he's a step backwards.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Everywhere. There's no. There's no place he could go where he's going to produce at the level he's been doing.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, no doubt about it. So bad news for dynasty owners of Antonio Brown and I almost. If he's traded, Juju is going ahead of him in this next draft.

[Andy Holloway]

If he's not traded, I'll bet Juju. Oh, you're saying redraft. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. That was today's news and notes. With fantasy football ramping down, remember, now's the time to ask you commission if you're using the right platform. Check out sleeper. The sleeper platform. All right, without further ado. Now, I do want to remind you if you've won a title.

[Mike Wright]

I thought it was without further ado.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I saw a note in here and I just wanted to remind people.

[Andy Holloway]

This is some ado.

[Jason Moore]

If you won, go to fantasychamps.com get your trophies, get your rings, whatever your hardware needs are they. They laser engrave onto metal placards. It's better quality. And you use the promo code ballers. That's all I need to say.

[Andy Holloway]

You want answers?

[Jason Moore]

I think I'm entitled.

[Andy Holloway]

You want answers? I want the truth. You can't handle the truth.

[Jason Moore]

You can't handle it.

[Mike Wright]

It's true.

[Jason Moore]

Do you understand? Let's do it. Let's get into it. Half point per reception. Breakdown of the wide receiver position. There'll be two shows about the wideouts. We'll get through as many today as makes sense without missing anything. And we want to break them down. And here's what we look at. We look at how many great games, how many good games, how many bust games through the fantasy season each and every one of these players gave you so that you have an understanding not only of where they finished, but of where their consistency level was and what you could expect week to week. Right?

[Mike Wright]

Absolutely. And we define that. We've taken a look at what do these, what do these players usually score just on average. So for a great game, it's more than 22 points and on average that puts you at least in the top five for the position at the wide receiver. A good game is more than 10 points and a bus game is if you have fewer than seven points, that puts you outside of the top 50.

[Andy Holloway]

And these are in half point PPR scoring.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's start right there at the top. Tyreek Hill finished as the number one fantasy football wide receiver in half point leagues with a 16 game finishing stat line of 87 receptions for 1,479 yards and 12 touchdowns on 137 targets. Added another 151 yards on the ground and a rushing touchdown and one return touchdown. Now, Tyree Kill has, has proven that sometimes those offseason discussions when you talk about changing a player's mo, you know, all of the special teams, big play touchdowns in years past. We saw last year the evolution of Tyree Kill. He only continued it this season. Look, what more can you say about the evolution of him as a player? His speed and then his, his ascension as a route runner has made him almost unguardable. And then you put Pat Mahomes into the equation and it's just a matter of health for him to finish in the top five.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, the percentage of bus games for Tyree Kill is actually shocking. I mean it's 19% which look, that's, that's not too bad considering that 31% of the time he gave you a weak winning type of performance. But when you watch him play, like how do you possibly ever bust, I mean like week 13, five and a half points, it just, it defies logic that Tyreek Hill doesn't go off every single week.

[Jason Moore]

He was limping around in the end of the season too. Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Tyreek Hill, if you, if you look, he's the number one on the season according to our, you know, the, our consistency metrics. He's tied for the 15th. He's not in the top 12. And you saw that. I mean he is a boom bust type of player. If it so happens that Travis Kelsey has 103 in a game.

[Jason Moore]

They just, you know, Kareem Hunt a part of the season or Damien Williams.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And then you got to deal with Tyree Kill's health. So the Question is, is he worth consideration among the top three? You know, you talk about, usually it's been Antonio Brown and Julio and Odell Beckham and those guys. Deandre Hopkins. Is Tyree Kill worth? I mean, he's the number one wide receiver, but because he's inconsistent, because he will absolutely win you some games, but he could cost you some games. Is he someone you'd be willing to take in the top five wide receivers?

[Jason Moore]

For me, the answer is yes. And that comes down to knowing what top three? Probably not. Probably not.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

And that just comes down. Look, if you draft Tyreek Hill, you have to know what you're getting. You're getting a player. 31% of his games were great games. He has those absolute monster performances. Week one, 33, week six, 35, week 10, 29, week 11, 38, week 17, if you happen to be playing there, 26 points. Look, he scored three times more fantasy points this year than the top wideout for the 49ers and the top white out for the Redskins. He piled up the points. But you have to know what you're getting with him and therefore draft and position yourself with your wide receiver, too, to have a better baseline. You cannot combine Tyreek Hill with another guy that has a very high inconsistency. You know, this year, maybe you would have struggled if you had Tyreek and someone like Mike Evans with a similar bust percentage, someone in the 20% range. Struggle is probably the wrong word. If you had Tyreek, you didn't really struggle. But. But look, he's great, and he has the quarterback that you can count on week in and week out to take two or three downfield shots with him. That's what I love. He was plus 7.54 fantasy points per game against top 16 defenses.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So he didn't have a problem or a weakness when it came to playing top defenses or home away.

[Jason Moore]

He's top corners. He didn't get shut down. He moves around the formation.

[Andy Holloway]

So we talked about it through the season.

[Mike Wright]

He usually is a little bit better on the road.

[Andy Holloway]

He's way better on the road. I mean, and that's going back a couple years now.

[Mike Wright]

So for me, Tyree Kill, he will be in the top three for me, but because the next two guys can give you weak winning performances as well. And they're just. They're more. They were more consistent this year, and the way that I projected they will be more consistent than Hill next year, I would take these next two guys first. But Tyree Kill, as of right now, will Be number three for me.

[Andy Holloway]

I do not believe Tyree Kill will make my top five. And I absolutely love Tyreek Hill. You're a hater. I'd be. No, I'd be happy to have him for sure. I think there are a lot of really great wide receivers at the top of your drafts right now.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's move on. Let's talk about number two on this list, DeAndre Hopkins. He had 276 points. He is actually number two in consistency because he put up exactly zero bust games on the season.

[Andy Holloway]

That's good.

[Jason Moore]

75% of his games were good. Now 38% were great in the great category. So he actually had a higher great game percentage than Tyree Kill. When you look at the metric of 22 plus. Now if you looked at Hill at like 30 plus, right. He's going to win that battle. But DeAndre Hopkins, absolutely dominant. Career high. 115 receptions zero. Drops zero. Alchons.

[Mike Wright]

Oh.

[Andy Holloway]

Now that Philadelphia just turned off.

[Jason Moore]

The podcast, that won't go over well. No, but I kind of feel like I needed one more shot across the bow after the way Twitter reacted to my joke yesterday. Look, Philly, let me, let me level with you. I picked you before the season to win the super bowl, so really it's your fault. So. Well, perhaps I've reaped him. If a pun joke comes along, I'm gonna post it. And no matter how many weird profanities you want to throw my way, I'm still gonna post it. I apologize. Alshon's great. Philly's great. They're just out of the playoffs.

[Mike Wright]

I can't believe you apologized.

[Andy Holloway]

It's embarrassing.

[Jason Moore]

I don't apologize for the pun.

[Mike Wright]

Have a backbone.

[Jason Moore]

I, I love Alshon Al Shawn to be apologizing. All right, look, what can you say about DeAndre Hopkins? He led the league in target share in back to back seasons. This was something, this is great to reflect on. Right? Because last year it was 35% of target share. And we said, my goodness, there's no.

[Andy Holloway]

Way that can't repeat that.

[Mike Wright]

And we were right.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we were right.

[Mike Wright]

32% this year wins a win.

[Jason Moore]

So what do you guys think about DeAndre? Because when you look at him and the next name on our list, hint, hint. Devonte Adams. How do you break down deciding between those two players?

[Andy Holloway]

Look at the top. Everybody has a great quarterback, so that can't be the tiebreaker. Aaron Rodgers, Pat Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, they're all great. It's really about the player themselves and DeAndre Hopkins. I mean, when you, when you have 115 receptions, no drops, that's ridiculous. You watch him play, he is unguardable because you can, you can backpack on him. You can literally just be allowed by the ref to Yoda backpack and he'll still catch that ball. You could put your fingers in the, in the face mask and gouge his eyes and he comes down with the ball.

[Jason Moore]

I think the other, only 100% of the time though, right?

[Andy Holloway]

He's, he's maybe the best wide receiver right now in football. And so he belongs in the discussion for the number one pick. He would, he would be my number two wide receiver as of right now going into next year. But the connection he's got with Watson and his skill, there's really nothing to be sad with. I mean, he, he, he had zero bus games. So you want to know what the truth of him finishing as the number two wide receiver is? That he was the number two, maybe the number one wide receiver in helping you win fantasy football in redraft leagues.

[Jason Moore]

Well, and this guy did it as well. Devonte Adams. 15 games, 111 catches, 1386 yards, 169 targets and 13 touchdowns. Absolutely dominant. And now he did not bust either but zero bus games, but he had 100% of his games that were good, that were 10 or more points.

[Andy Holloway]

That is the most amazing stat. We've done this for years. I do not ever remember not Antonio Brown's great seasons, not Julio's, not Odell Beckham's. I don't remember any wide receiver playing a whole game, a whole season where you did not have a single game that was below double digit points. He, he was.

[Jason Moore]

Well, it's not even that we said a good game is 10 points and above. Right?

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

He didn't have a game under 12.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean he was, he was incredible. And he would be my number one wide receiver because I still think there's room to go up. You've got, I mean, you've got a better offensive mind, I believe, for today's football coming into Green Bay. And the connection is there with Aaron Rodgers as the number one. Aaron Rodgers is usually around 40 touchdowns. He wasn't there this year. And Devonte Adams has three consecutive seasons of double digit touchdowns. So you've got, I think the touchdown upside is there, but now you've got the actual volume that has really been missing for Devonte Adams over of the previous season.

[Jason Moore]

You're talking about this year?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

The 169 targets. I agree with that. Do you look at that team like I'm thinking of off season narratives and maybe want. Look, I give Devonte Adams his due times a million. He's been absolutely phenomenal. He was the only player Aaron Rodgers could depend on. Now that was part of the problem. Yes, I know in that offense. Right. And you bring in like he needs other reliable pass catching targets. He didn't have Jordy, he didn't have Cobb. The rookies, they took turns being consistent and inconsistent. Even Jimmy Graham was nothing what we hoped. So I have to wonder if this, if it can go up from this. I think and not that it has to. I mean this is still. If he did this again, sure he's worthy of a number one pick.

[Mike Wright]

Very happy. I think Adams like you're talking about. There's a little bit more variance built in with the way that this offseason could go for Green Bay. I mean if they spent their number one or their second round pick on a stud wide receiver who happens to follow them, it won't shock me. So that's why I have Hopkins just slightly above Adams because I think that everything is perfectly safe for. For Hopkins target share.

[Jason Moore]

I tend to be lean that direction as well. Hopkins has. I think he's a better pure player.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I do agree with that but.

[Jason Moore]

Look it's a, it's a sliver. It's really close on which guy's going to give you a better year next year. Other stats for Devonte Adams, pretty much nothing different between home and road. When you have a season that consistent and he was down a little bit against top 16 defenses, two points a game lower, that's negligible. Negligible. Antonio Brown, 104 receptions, 1297 yards. Here's where he made his money. Fifteen touchdowns this year. One hundred and sixty eight targets. Seven percent of his games were bust games. Week 14 he had six points.

[Mike Wright]

He made his money.

[Jason Moore]

That was it.

[Mike Wright]

Sixteen. Yeah, Antonio Brown was solid. He was very good for your fantasy teams. But he certainly inflated his overall finish coming in there with that we 16, 37 point. I mean extravaganza. People love it because it was their championship week and he's incredibly consistent. But if he had, you know, just an, an average game. Antonio Brown's probably outside of the top five if he didn't absolutely explode.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I looked up the. Because that, that's something. I mean that's what we want to look at in the truth episode is how were they, you know, did all of it come in one game? If you take out that week 16 performance, you just look weeks one through 15, he was actually still the wide receiver. Four. So he was in the top five on a points per game basis. Still tied for four.

[Mike Wright]

So you have six years in a row of Antonio Brown hitting at least 1284 yards, double digit touchdowns before the last five seasons. Antonio Brown is phenomenal. But where is Antonio Brown playing football in 2019?

[Andy Holloway]

Antonio Brown was my number two when we put out our first top 10, you know, rankings, the way too early stuff. A couple weeks ago, he was my second wide receiver and I can't, I can't have him there now because.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, get him, Jay.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, it's just, it does not look like he's going to be in Pittsburgh. And that's the hope. I think every fantasy player hopes that Antonio, like just reconcile, get back with Big Ben, do what you've been doing. If he stays in Pittsburgh, I will still take him over juju. I will still take him probably number two overall, Antonio Brown at the wide receiver position. Yes, yes, yes, yes. At the, at the wide receiver position. But I mean, it's all about him leaving his, his target volume, his dependency in the red zone, which is, you know, he's always had, you know, double digit touchdowns is hard for a wide receiver. His body style is not the wide receiver you'd expect to be the guy always getting double digit touchdowns. But it's Big Ben's trust level there. So if he changes and goes somewhere else, it's going to hurt. It's really difficult to talk about what his consistency means for 2019 when he might be somewhere else.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's going to be a challenge because you don't want to understate or overstate the consistency that he's had. But then you have so many more variables present for him than other players right now.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, you saw, you saw Jerry Rice change teams to be awesome and Antonio Brown is in that tier. He's in the Larry Fitzgerald, Jerry Rice tier of, you know, one of the top three to five best wide receivers in the history of football.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. All right. You guys want to move on?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Julio.

[Andy Holloway]

Julio. Touchdown Jones.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

There was a point in the season. I'm telling you this, just sharing a story from our league of records. There's a point in the season, our trade deadline's coming up. Julio's got like 2, 1 touchdown on the year and I had the chance. Someone offered me Odell Beckham Jr. Or, I'm sorry, I was offered Julio for Odell straight up and I'm looking at playoff matchups and who to play and how to break down my playoff matchups. And I loved what I saw from ldell. And I told myself, I said, if I do this trade, Julio is so due to score. Like it's coming, it's coming. And I couldn't believe it. And now obviously that bit me hugely because right in the keister. Beckham was out at the end of the year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, Julio was not.

[Andy Holloway]

The first seven games, Julio Jones at exactly no touchdowns, zero, nothing, nil, zip. And then in the next nine games, he had eight touchdowns, a 14 touchdown pace on a full season. Is this something clicked. The ice was broken and Matt Ryan and Julio just figured it out.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, yes and no. Because 113 reception, 1677 yards, 170 targets. This was more the law of averages than anything else. He's going to catch the ball all over the field. He just started getting into the end zone. When you have 113 receptions, some of those are going to happen. I mean, look, we've seen him snake bit for a while. I'm not concerned about it. Now they switch over to dirt cutter again at offensive coordinator.

[Mike Wright]

Plenty of off, plenty of wide receiver touchdowns in Tampa.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And I'm just like in love with 1677 yards.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

More than anything else. Eight touchdowns in the end. Six percent bus game, 75% good, 44% great. That's a huge great percentage. That's the highest great percentage of anybody so far.

[Andy Holloway]

He is the guy. When I look at Tyreek Hill and I say, will Tyreek Hill make my top five? Where I when I come staring down the barrel next year at Tyree Kill or Julio right now, Eileen, Julio, he has got a larger body of work. A larger body as well. He's only going to be 30. 30 is not the death age for wide receivers. Usually that comes around 31, 32, you.

[Mike Wright]

Know, that's the Logan's run.

[Andy Holloway]

So Julio, you know, it's not like with Cutter coming back. You've got to do the. I need two seasons for Matt Ryan to get used to the system. He's already been there. So I think Julio is going to be a great play. This is what I'm saying. The top of next year's wide receiver class is strong, is very strong. And we haven't even talked about someone that I expect will be ahead of some of these names next year, but probably shouldn't be the next guy on the list.

[Mike Wright]

What a teaser.

[Jason Moore]

Hold on. I want to say this Julio and Mount Ryan, that connection Reminds me so much of what you had established between Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson for many years. Like you can kind of print the 1500 plus yards because you even brought in Calvin Ridley. You've had changes at the running back position. You've got Mohammed Sanu, different players, but Julio is just going to get his. Because at the end of the day, when Matt Ryan's running for his life, he throws it to number 11, throws it to Julio.

[Mike Wright]

Touchdown.

[Jason Moore]

Are you about to insult Michael Thomas?

[Andy Holloway]

You're darn right I am.

[Jason Moore]

That is insane. Because Michael Thomas, our number six on the list, 125 receptions, which by the way, last year, 107. We thought that was nice. 125 for 1405 and nine on 147 targets. Have your way, Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

Because this never go ahead ever seen before, nor could even envision or imagine in a dream that a player with 125 receptions, not targets, receptions, could have a bust rate of a quarter of his games. Like, he seems like he should be the number one most consistent player, right? He's Drew Brees, his main target, who caught 125 balls. How in the world did you have a quarter of your games where you busted. That's not just under. I mean, you know, if according to us, we're saying fewer than seven points.

[Mike Wright]

In a half point shouldn't be hard for Michael Thomas, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Like he should be able to get that every single game. But they were able. Other defenses were able to scheme him out in certain games and he crushed you. I was a Michael Thomas owner and a lot of times it was the games that you would expect him to go off. You couldn't predict when they were coming. But my point is just 125 receptions is what dreams are made of. But he was very not consistent, and that's surprising.

[Jason Moore]

This is not consistent.

[Andy Holloway]

He was not consistent, not even inconsistent.

[Jason Moore]

He was very not consistent.

[Andy Holloway]

Very not consistent. Very inconsistent.

[Jason Moore]

Not sistent.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Thank you, Andy. Not assistant at all. No. That's what this episode is about, is taking a look at the truth of players and not just their stat lines. Because the stat line says he should be.

[Jason Moore]

Well, let's look.

[Andy Holloway]

The number two, the number three wide receiver drafted off the board next year, assuming Drew Brees is.

[Jason Moore]

Let's get that Matt Nagy wins face going on. Here's the Matt Nagy wins face. Week 12, 5.8. Week 13, 6.5. Week 15, 8.4. Week 17, 5.4. That means four of his final six games he gave you. Yeah, turds and then 15 and 22 in weeks 14 and 16. Obviously you started the year is the number one guy over the first three weeks, but then a couple of duds. So he does. He has disappeared a little bit. So let's look at what he does against top defenses, see if that's why it was.

[Mike Wright]

It was also the end of the season there you had. It was just maybe the shift to the running game. But Drew Brees towards the end of the year was not putting up numbers where through the first 10, 11 weeks Drew Brees was.

[Jason Moore]

But does that concern you, Mike?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's a chicken or egg. I'm not sure which to blame yet. As of this recording.

[Jason Moore]

Here's a couple interesting facts. One, top defenses didn't slow him down. He was better against top 16. But at home he was plus 5.2.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that makes sense.

[Jason Moore]

That's a lot.

[Andy Holloway]

That's Drew Brees. I mean Drew Brees. We've talked about his home road splits. He likes playing at home in a dome.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you're looking for another rhyme.

[Mike Wright]

His truck's got a lot of chrome.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you. Save me there.

[Jason Moore]

Oh my God. I saw him start smirking. He's trying to think of what. Yeah, at home in a dome.

[Mike Wright]

Read a tome.

[Jason Moore]

Thanks, Mike. 85% catch rate. LED all receivers with that. I don't think anybody likes throwing to one specific guy more than Breeze likes throwing to Thomas. Other than maybe Russell's throwing to Tyler Lockett.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Number seven on the list, Adam Thielen. Oh yeah. I'm supposed to push a button, but.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, are.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I was hooked for, you know, for nine weeks. Yeah, I was really hooked.

[Mike Wright]

That was great.

[Jason Moore]

13% of his games were busts by our definition. 63% good games, 38% great games. And this really was a tale of two halves. Mike, you and I talked about it last week a little bit. Break down the first and second halves fantasy points wise.

[Mike Wright]

So Adam Thielen, those through the first eight games like we had talked about, over 100 yards every single game. His 16 game pace was absolutely insane because it would have been 1850 yards, which is just ludicrous.

[Andy Holloway]

With 12 touchdowns, I mean, I mean.

[Mike Wright]

You'Re looking at double digits, double digit targets in almost every single one of those games. But then the second half of the season, 39 receptions for 448 yards. That's a almost 80 reception, 900 yard season. That is just not, not anything close to special when it comes to fantasy football.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's interesting because you saw the breakdown of Kirk Cousins as well. And where the, you know, where's the confidence level in this offense that lost its offensive coordinator halfway through the year as well? How much does that matter with what this team was doing? Because here's what we do know about Mike Zimmer. Right. What does he want to do?

[Mike Wright]

Defense and run.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And what he and Dalvin Cook was.

[Mike Wright]

Injured for a lot of the first.

[Andy Holloway]

Half of the year.

[Jason Moore]

Here's the thing, not only does he want to do that, but when they didn't do that, they didn't do well.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

You know, they. It wasn't just like he was having his hand forced and then, well, I guess we are a high flying team and we win that way. So we're just going to live with it. They were not succeeding.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

And so it will be. This will be one of the, the Vikings in general, I think will be an interesting off season discussion point because all the numbers, Thielen, Diggs, Cook, Cousins, they're all going to look real nice.

[Andy Holloway]

I cannot wait to draft Adam Thielen again behind Stefan Diggs. I'm telling you, it will happen. People will draft Diggs ahead of Thielen again next year and they will be wrong.

[Jason Moore]

I would take him above. No, I'm just kidding.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, good. Yeah, look, I mean to speak to what you're talking about, the tale of two halves. He was the number one wide receiver by a mile. The first half of the season, the second half of the season he was the 28th ranked wide receiver behind Mohammed Sanu, Larry Fitzgerald and Zay Jones. Jones, don't say Jones. Zay Jones is actually.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I know.

[Andy Holloway]

The wide receiver. 23.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he's going to be interesting next year.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Mike Evans. Mike, you, you wanted to talk about him. We talked about him a little bit last week. 19% busts. I mean that's a lot. That's a high percentage. Week 4, 6, 9, 10, 13, all single digits. But I mean this was really kind of a resilient year for him. 86 for 15, 24 and 8. Bruce Arians, welcome to town. Yeah, Mike Evans specializes in manhandling DBs and he is somebody you can target at all times, which. And a wide catch radius, which is what you need for Jameis Winston chucking the rock. So vertical passing game with Bruce Arians. There's a lot to like about Mike Evans heading into next year. Home road splits, about the same defenses. You know, he's a little bit better against top 16Ds. What do you guys think about Mike Evans. Is he somebody that can climb back into top five next year?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I really like Mike Evans because this was not necessarily his ceiling and there are reasons for it to be improved. You know, if desean Jackson leaves and Godwin steps up, there'll be enough from Godwin to take defense away. But Mike Evans will still be used as the deep threat. He had 17.7 yards per reception, his highest of his career. Mike Evans did this year. Now you bring in Bruce Arians, a dedication to one quarterback. I mean, they're not going to do the back and forth. And granted you could argue that Mike Evans was even better with Fitzpatrick, but I think Mike Evans, his ceiling is well over 10 touchdowns and he only had eight touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

He's had 12 touchdowns twice in his career.

[Jason Moore]

And you look at the division, right? I mean, it's a tough division. You're playing some difficult offenses. I don't know if I expect Tampa to be in a much different position than they are this year in terms of coming back, needing to air it out. I just. There's a lot to like about Mike Evans for where you'll get to draft him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, I love everyone in that division because you have four great offenses with some okay defenses. I mean, it's hard to run on the Saints, but you can throw on them. And if you've got eight games a year, half of your season where it's usually a high scoring affair, that's just great for fantasy.

[Jason Moore]

I really wonder what the difference in Bruce Arians will make because it's not like Dirt Cutter wasn't airing the ball out. Mike Evans, average depth of target, number one in the league, 15.7 yards. Like he's already catching the ball further from the line of scrimmage than any other receiver. So I'm curious. That's as vertical as it gets for him.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm curious what happens with Godwin, with Bruce Arians. Does he take on. Does he get moved inside at all? Run the kind of Larry Fitzgerald type role?

[Jason Moore]

I know what's going to happen with Godman. You want to know?

[Andy Holloway]

I do. I would love to know the future. This sounds great.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. I've looked into my crystal ball and it's not pretty. You want to know why? Because DJ Ox will come back and we won't know where to rank both those guys. That's what's going to. And then O.J. howard will be back too, and we're going to be looking at Mike Evans. Plus, what do I do? That's. That's my fear, that's my true fear of, of the off season. Because I think Djax will return and we'll be going like even. Let me pretend he's back right now. Who do you draft between?

[Andy Holloway]

D. Jackson? Godwin. Yeah, Godwin by mile.

[Jason Moore]

Even though if Djax comes back, he'll be the outside starter.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, he might. Chris Godwin will be the starter.

[Jason Moore]

Did you say Stefan Diggs? Is that how you're taking over Thiel?

[Andy Holloway]

I am taking Chris Godwin over desean Jackson. Chris Godwin the outside starter?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's, it's tough.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't, I don't think that would be a demotion.

[Jason Moore]

You're telling me that if Djax doesn't come back, you'll take Godwin?

[Andy Holloway]

I'm saying both ways. I'm taking Godwin.

[Mike Wright]

No, because D.J. i mean, Chris Godwin was the starter. He was playing far more than Djax.

[Jason Moore]

Djax was beat up. And when he was in there and he was healthy and Fitzpatrick was in there, he was by far the better play. He was the play that you could actually count on for a while.

[Andy Holloway]

Adam Humphreys was probably the best play.

[Jason Moore]

There you go.

[Andy Holloway]

The wide receiver. 13 over the second half of the year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Juju Smith Schuster, number nine, finished at number nine this year. What a year for Juju. He had 111 receptions, 1426 yards, seven touchdowns on 166 targets. I don't know how many of those seven, I don't have the data in front of me. How many of those seven were like 97 yard touchdowns? But he, he makes the big, big plays. But he didn't, you know, he scored half as many touchdowns as his counterpart, Antonio Brown. And part of that, I think, is just the role he was playing in this office.

[Mike Wright]

Well, you can't score if Antonio Brown is scoring.

[Jason Moore]

Well, sure. And he was moving inside a lot. The underneath guy, the play extending. You found him get this. When he, they played against top defenses. I mean, this seems hard to believe. Minus 9.266 fantasy points per game against top 16 defenses. That's not good coincidence. Also minus 6.34 at home.

[Andy Holloway]

What?

[Jason Moore]

So if he was on the road.

[Mike Wright]

Against bad teams, that was the thing. It was juju on the road and Antonio Brown at home.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, that was. We by, by the halfway point in the season. We, we could see that that was a, a constant thread in whatever the offense game plan was. But I, I look, I do think that juju's utilization shows that he can go up and that's including Antonio Brown still on the roster. You're talking about a guy who had 26 red zone targets on the season, 10 targets inside the tin for Juju. They believe in him. And, you know, it's one of those things where, like Tyree Kill, we talked early in the off season about he doesn't get enough volume. But you know what? His talent is so good that he can be efficient on. He could take anything to the house. That's where juju is. Now, juju's not as fast as Tyreek Hill, but juju is just a big, strong young man who can, you know, take defenders on his back, shove them off, and, you know, when I watch him play, he looks like a special talent, the way that not a lot of other wide receivers look. And he's so young. I mean, he's going into his third year, but he's the age of incoming rookies.

[Jason Moore]

Juju is wonderful. Now, the question marks that will exist this offseason will be around Antonio Brown, be around Mike Tomlin, be around Big Ben. But if Brown leaves. Because right now, if you had to project it, you'd say Brown leaves, James Washington steps up. Juju's the lead man. I mean, how. I mean, where do you take him?

[Andy Holloway]

You have to take him in the top 10 for sure.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, at the receiver position?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, at the receiver.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, but do you take him?

[Mike Wright]

Come on, he already finished Bold Jason.

[Jason Moore]

He already finished at number nine. But do you. Do you look at him above Thielen?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

You wanted to insult Michael Thomas.

[Andy Holloway]

If Antonio Brown is gone, I would take juju, Smith, Schuster. I would take Judas with Schuster over both Mike Evans and Adam Thielen.

[Jason Moore]

What about Michael Thomas?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think.

[Jason Moore]

What about Odell Beckham Jr. No, I.

[Andy Holloway]

Would not over Odell Beckham Jr. But I would over. Over Michael Thomas.

[Jason Moore]

Well, see, that's. That's where the rubber meets road. It's hard because you go Adams, Hopkins, Tyreek. You take him over Tyreek.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, those three. Adams, Hopkins, Tyreek, Beckham, Julio. Julio. That's five right there.

[Andy Holloway]

Right?

[Mike Wright]

So I'd probably take him right after that.

[Jason Moore]

Michael Thomas. No, I would take juju over Michael Thomas. Yeah, see, I would. I think I would, too. That'll be the interesting thing if Antonio leaves. All right, we got time to get through one more wide receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

Next year's best value in the draft.

[Jason Moore]

This guy.

[Andy Holloway]

This guy. Probably here's best value.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, let's talk about it. Robert Woods, 86 for 12, 19 and 6 on 130 targets. 19 for 157 on the ground and a touchdown on the ground. That is essentially the stat line of Tyreek Hill. So he runs as many jet sweeps and end arounds and has as much success as Tyreek does.

[Andy Holloway]

On the ground.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, on the ground.

[Andy Holloway]

And according to Troy Aikman, he's the best wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

What did he say?

[Andy Holloway]

I believe he said he's the best all around wide receiver in the game.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, Troy, high praise. Okay Troy.

[Andy Holloway]

But Look, I mean 40 years back when he was on Buffalo, Andy, you and me, especially you, dude.

[Jason Moore]

I've been the biggest Robert woods fan in a long time.

[Andy Holloway]

But pass the eyeball test now. He's on a great offense. He's a reliable, reliable option. But because there's a three headed monster there of wide receivers when Cooper cup comes back, I don't think Robert woods is going to be drafted where he should be.

[Jason Moore]

This is the best season Robert woods will ever have. This is his greatest stat line that you're going to see. Maybe that's what I believe.

[Mike Wright]

I think he can improve on the six touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he'll be right around this stat line for next year.

[Jason Moore]

Well, he. Look, 13% of his games were bus. That's not a lot. 56% of good games but only 13% of his games were great. And that is Robert woods for you. Yeah, he's not a good wide receiver. If you can somehow maneuver your team to where you've got him as your wide receiver too. You've got the best wide receiver corn in football.

[Andy Holloway]

I. He will be every. Anybody that drafts him the highest he will be is their wide receiver too.

[Jason Moore]

There's. Because everybody behind him is going to go ahead of him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. I mean he'll be drafted in some situations as your wide receiver three on your roster and that, I mean he's just, he's very consistent. He was a top 12 guy from a consistency standpoint. You know we have him in our joint dynasty league and he, you know we were able to ride him oftentimes in those hard weeks because you know a lot of flex plays and you just, you never, you never look at your roster with Robert woods and go, oh yeah, Robert Woods. And that's why he's gonna fall some Kool Aid. No, that's, that's why he's gonna fall in drafts. He's. Oh yeah, he's the third wide receiver on a team who Roberts. But he's gonna be great. He's gonna do what he did this year, next year. I firmly believe that.

[Jason Moore]

The thing is, is you Are. You're in a different tier. You really are with Robert woods and last year, previous career highs, 65 receptions, 781 yards, five touchdowns. If you wanted me to, you know, give a stat line for next year, 76 for 1,005. I mean, that's about where I'd have him, which is good. But you're going to have other players flex up above that.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. There's so many players we haven't talked about that will be easily and obviously drafted ahead of Robert woods next year. I mean, Amari Cooper and.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but any of them make you say. Any of them make you say, oh, yeah, well, right.

[Andy Holloway]

And that's why it's not that I would take Robert woods over Keenan Allen. I wouldn't. But I'm going to target where Robert woods will be in the draft and say at that round, I want him on my. On my team.

[Jason Moore]

Fair enough. Fair enough. He was the 12th most consistent wide receiver this year based on the metrics we laid out before. We'll get into a number of maybe even more interesting wide receivers on the Thursday show because you start to get into guys that have a lot more debate about them and what they've done, and maybe, you know, you're gonna find some gems that you didn't know are out there. So we're gonna get into that on Thursday. Pristine deal of the day. What'd you think of that, Jay?

[Andy Holloway]

I love it. It's already hooked in my head and that's like, the first time I've heard it on the podcast.

[Jason Moore]

All right. The pristine deal of the day. Ty Hilton signed. Colts jersey just sold yesterday for $58.50.

[Mike Wright]

Someone bought right after the playoff loss.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So nice work. Go sign up, check out the hundreds of daily deals just like that one@pristine auction.com. all right, great show, guys.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

Just a superb effort on both by both of you.

[Mike Wright]

Good work, Brooks.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you. We'll talk.

[Mike Wright]

See you on Thursday. Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter @the ffballers.