The TRUTH: Fantasy TEs in 2019 + Super Bowl Reactions

Summary

Podcast Summary: "The TRUTH: Fantasy TEs in 2019 + Super Bowl Reactions"

Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
Episode Release Date: February 4, 2020

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1. Super Bowl Reactions

The episode kicks off with the hosts sharing their immediate reactions to the Super Bowl, capturing the excitement and dramatic moments of the game.

• Jason Moore opens the discussion with enthusiasm:
  "Tuesday, February 4th. Wow. What a Super Bowl that was." [00:43]

• Mike Wright echoes the sentiment, highlighting the game's unpredictability:
  "It had really everything that you could possibly want from a Super Bowl. Some back and forth, back and forth." [00:53]

• The hosts delve into the MVP debate, with Mike Wright expressing a light-hearted disagreement:
  "Could have been a last second victory... if Damian Williams had been the MVP, it would have been even better." [01:20]

• Andy Holloway counters by affirming Patrick Mahomes as the rightful MVP:
  "No way. That was Pat Mahomes, Super Bowl MVP." [01:25]

• Jason Moore shares a personal anecdote reflecting the game's impact:
  "My 8-year-old who won his first fantasy league this year... just saw his favorite player win the Super Bowl. And I realized it only goes down from here, son." [02:17]

2. Transition to Fantasy TE Analysis

Post the Super Bowl chatter, the hosts smoothly transition into the core topic of the episode—an in-depth analysis of tight ends (TEs) in fantasy football for the 2019 season.

3. The Truth About Fantasy Tight Ends in 2019

Andy Holloway introduces the segment with a nod to their comprehensive draft kit, setting the stage for a detailed examination of TEs' performance and value in fantasy leagues.

a. Travis Kelce

• Jason Moore lauds Kelce's consistency:
  "Travis Kelce has been the number one tight end several years running... he's very consistent, he's very good." [25:58]

• Mike Wright discusses the slight dip in Kelce's touchdown numbers:
  "His red zone targets dropped dramatically from 16 two years ago to seven... which is why you only had five total touchdowns on the year." [26:23]

Conclusion: Despite a minor setback in touchdowns, Kelce remains a top-tier, reliable TE option.

b. George Kittle

• Jason Moore praises Kittle's athleticism and impact:
  "My favorite tight end to watch is George Kittle. He's absolutely a dominating force." [27:08]

• Andy Holloway emphasizes Kittle's integral role in his team's offense:
  "Mark Andrews ended up getting drafted ahead of Zach Ertz because more Mark Andrews owners ended up winning championships." [37:59]

Conclusion: Kittle's dynamic playmaking ability keeps him in the elite TE category.

c. Darren Waller

• Andy Holloway explains Waller's inconsistency and dependency on volume:
  "Darren Waller is a PPR volume-dependent guy who surprisingly didn't score a lot of touchdowns." [31:49]

• Jason Moore highlights the challenges in streaming TEs when Waller underperforms:
  "You essentially are stuck in that situation where what other tight end are you going to put in there?" [32:16]

Conclusion: Waller presents a high-upside but risky option, dependent on his team's offensive schemes and target consistency.

d. Mark Andrews

• Jason Moore commends Andrews' big-play potential:
  "He can do what Gronk used to be able to do, just take a ball in the middle of the field and turn up field and get loose." [27:53]

• Mike Wright expresses concerns over Andrews' injury history:
  "He was really banged up, missed practice, didn't play... that isn't the type of play that I'm going to bet on a big season coming through for a tight end." [35:47]

Conclusion: While Andrews offers significant upside, his injury history introduces uncertainty.

e. Austin Hooper

• Andy Holloway shares confidence in Hooper's continued performance:
  "If the situation is similar next year, that was very important to the offense... there's nothing not to love about Austin Hooper." [44:31]

• Jason Moore discusses Hooper's impact when healthy:
  "Do you think he'll be back in that role? It was very important to the offense... So there's nothing not to love about Austin Hooper." [44:31]

Conclusion: Hooper is viewed as a promising TE with high fantasy potential, contingent on his health and team role stability.

f. Tyler Higby

• Jason Moore analyzes Higby's late-season performance:
  "He just was a part of the offense... if Higby is going late, then I'll be all in on drafting him." [54:05]

• Andy Holloway notes the significant increase in Higby's snap percentages towards the end of the season:
  "They said he is now the starter, he is now a centerpiece of this offense." [54:51]

Conclusion: Higby's late-season surge suggests potential for increased fantasy value, though it remains a speculative pick.

g. Evan Ingram

• Jason Moore highlights Ingram's high-impact games despite limited playtime:
  "When Evan Ingram played, put up a 25% great game number." [55:48]

Conclusion: Ingram is considered a viable late-round TE option with upside, though his consistency and role clarity are factors to monitor.

h. Jared Cook

• Andy Holloway reflects on Cook's mid-season performance improvements:
  "Jared Cook was the most consistent tight end... he was unbelievable." [53:11]

• Jason Moore praises Cook's late-season consistency:
  "He was the most consistent tight end you could be... reality was he wasn't worth his draft capital at all until the decimation of the other receiving options." [54:05]

Conclusion: Cook's season exemplifies the volatility at the TE position, showing high potential when utilized effectively.

i. Will Disley

• Andy Holloway discusses Disley's limited contributions due to injuries:
  "He burned bright... it's going hard to gauge moving forward." [56:16]

Conclusion: Disley's future fantasy value is uncertain, primarily due to injury concerns and limited playtime.

4. Comparative Analysis and Draft Strategies

The hosts compare the performance and reliability of the top TEs, weighing factors such as consistency, injury history, and team offensive strategies.

• Jason Moore emphasizes the difficulty in identifying breakout TEs beyond the elite few:
  "The truth about the tight end position is that it's a difficult position to figure out beyond the top few guys." [58:42]

• Mike Wright underscores the scarcity of reliable TEs compared to quarterbacks:
  "You can't just always find one. If you want a really, you know, you want a Kittle, you want a Kelsey, that's the end of the tier." [59:40]

Conclusion: Drafting TEs requires balancing high-impact players with reliability, recognizing the limited depth beyond the top performers.

5. Final Thoughts and Recommendations

The hosts wrap up by summarizing their insights and offering guidance for fantasy managers:

• Prioritize elite TEs like Kelce and Kittle early in drafts due to their consistent high performance.
• Consider high-upside but riskier options like Waller and Hooper based on team dynamics and injury status.
• Late-round values such as Higby and Ingram can provide additional depth but come with increased uncertainty.
• Emphasize the importance of monitoring team offensive strategies and player health to make informed TE selections.

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Notable Quotes:

• Jason Moore on Tight End Difficulty:
  "The truth about the tight end position is that it's a difficult position to figure out beyond the top few guys." [58:42]

• Mike Wright on TE Scarcity:
  "You can't just always find one. If you want a really, you know, you want a Kittle, you want a Kelsey, that's the end of the tier." [59:40]

Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the tight end position in fantasy football, dissecting player performances, consistency, and strategic drafting considerations. The hosts offer valuable insights, backed by statistical analysis and personal anecdotes, making it a must-listen for fantasy managers aiming to optimize their TE selections for the upcoming season.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Foreignasy Footballers podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome in. The season is over. Are we celebrating that a champion has been crowned?

[Andy Holloway]

I think it means the season has started.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, 2020.

[Jason Moore]

I should have started with.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Tuesday, February 4th. Wow. What a Super bowl that was.

[Mike Wright]

What a game, man. It was absolutely sensational. It had, it had really everything that you could possibly want from a Super Bowl. Some back and forth, back and forth.

[Jason Moore]

The drama, lots of drama.

[Mike Wright]

Could have been a last second victory.

[Jason Moore]

49Ers losing there was almost like the best. What else could make it better?

[Mike Wright]

Oh, what could have made it better? If the Super Bowl MVP was rightly given, it was to the player who should have gotten it.

[Andy Holloway]

No way. That was Pat Mahomes, super bowl mvp.

[Mike Wright]

It's fine. I'm not actually here to really argue that Damian Williams should have been the mvp, but if he had, because we talked about.

[Jason Moore]

You would have enjoyed it very much.

[Mike Wright]

As soon as, as soon as the game was done, I turned around to the guys and I said, who's the mvp? And no one could just immediately, oh, well, it was, it was obviously Mahomes. It's.

[Andy Holloway]

It was. Oh, crap.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, and then Jason, Jason's face when. When I asked him the question just lost all color.

[Andy Holloway]

I wouldn't be here today.

[Mike Wright]

He dropped from us. Euphoric celebration that Kansas City beat our. The hated 49ers, but hated by us because division. And then he just, he realized Damian Williams is actually legit in the running to be the Super Bowl MVP.

[Andy Holloway]

There was a good 12 or 13 minutes where I was shook. I was waiting on pins and needles like, oh, no, this can't happen. Please.

[Jason Moore]

No, it was a special game. I. My 8 year old who won his first fantasy league this year, whose favorite player is Patrick Mahomes, who's worn a Patrick Mahomes jersey or shirt for weeks on end, just saw his favorite player win the Super Bowl. And I realized it only goes down from here, son. I mean, why peak at 8 years old is what I'm asking him. Why your life is as good as it gets right now.

[Mike Wright]

Honestly though, I've still never seen my favorite player win a Super Bowl. So if I could see them win one, even if I was eight years.

[Jason Moore]

Old, you take it.

[Mike Wright]

I think I would take it.

[Jason Moore]

Well, he's probably got some more in him, don't you think?

[Andy Holloway]

You would think so.

[Jason Moore]

You know, that was. The funny thing is when it was 20 to 10, and I think we all agree the game was almost made by the third and 15, nine yard back stepping.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Wrong foot. Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill play. But there was a part of this game when it was 20 to 10, when I thought this thing was probably going the 49ers way. When you kind of, you know, I looked to someone that we were watching the game with. I'm like, you just imagine a guy like Patrick Mahomes will have another chance, but you'd never know someone like Dan Marino.

[Mike Wright]

Say the same thing happened to Marino. Ah, he'll be back.

[Jason Moore]

What was his second year in the league? Second or third year in the league, goes to the super bowl, never has another shot. One of the best quarterbacks ever. So you have to take your opportunity when it's there in front of you. What a game.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Really exciting, really fun. Had a good time and a nice Capstone to the 2019 season. And like you said, 2020 just began.

[Andy Holloway]

It's going to be a great year. The draft class is great. The free agent class is great. There weren't as many coaching changes as in recent years. Still some big ones. You know, Ja Rule getting ahead, coaching job for the first time.

[Mike Wright]

But that, you know what that was? Besides Damien Williams mvp, the one thing that I was missing was I had a prop bet for Shakira.

[Jason Moore]

Can't win mvp, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

No, I understand that. But Jennifer Lopez could come out with, with, with Ja Rule. She had a Smash single back in.

[Jason Moore]

The day and didn't happen.

[Mike Wright]

And it didn't happen.

[Jason Moore]

Fair. Fair point. And the truth is, the way that the NFLPA and the NFL are negotiating, we might have enough games to where the season will begin next week.

[Mike Wright]

Guys, I have a really quick question though, but as I kind of put a bow on this discussion, if there was a wide receiver who in three games during the playoffs had 76 yards, 114 yards with a touchdown and 98 yards, where would you draft?

[Andy Holloway]

Well, does he have any draft capital? Like where was he drafted previously?

[Mike Wright]

You mean when he came into league? Oh, he was a first round pick.

[Jason Moore]

I want you to understand, I know this show is successful, but I will burn it to the ground right now. If this off season is you making people draft Sammy Watkins, I can, I will burn it to the ground.

[Andy Holloway]

I can promise you that will not be happening.

[Jason Moore]

It's amazing. He. He knows how to take advantage of games in which his fantasy owners will not benefit.

[Mike Wright]

That is what he showed up and they said, Sammy.

[Jason Moore]

Two straight playoffs for Sammy.

[Mike Wright]

You're either taking a pay cut or we're gonna. We're gonna have to cut you off the team unless you start putting up some numbers. Oh, okay. I'll play now. Ridiculous Playoff run.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. All right, we had the ultimate draft kit is now available for pre order happened on Super Bowl Sunday. That's ultimate draft kit.com if you preorder before March 1st, you get $5 towards shopballers.com 10 bucks towards fantasychamps.com you get the early access to Dynasty and rookie rankings and of course the lowest possible price and a chance to win a listener league spot. So check that out atultimatedraftkit.com you can check out the show on Twitter at the ffballers. We're on Instagram as well and the website's the Fantasy footballers dot com. So we're done with the super bowl talk because we've got tight end truth to talk about on the show today as well.

[Mike Wright]

That's fair.

[Jason Moore]

So nothing else you want to throw in there? No, I think Damian Williams 17 for 104 and a touchdown.

[Andy Holloway]

The only other thing that I receiving touchdown.

[Mike Wright]

He was awesome.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. The only other thing that I would say is that there's no justifiable way to not call a timeout before the Al Shanahan and you waste an entire possession. Oh, I don't want to give it back to Pat Mahomes. We get the ball coming out in the second half. You had the ball. Well, they had two minutes.

[Jason Moore]

They had three timeouts though. Kansas City had three. It was was the argument right. Like Kansas City. If you, if you get a stop on first down, Kansas City gets uses them up. But you're two minutes to Patrick Mahomes.

[Mike Wright]

You have been, you have been dominating Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. You have been dominating them and you have a chance to at minimum get three points.

[Jason Moore]

You have not been dominating them. The score is 10 to 10. Mike.

[Mike Wright]

You. That's. But defense dominating.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, you're saying on defense your defense has been dominating. I see.

[Andy Holloway]

That's why. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I didn't mean as a whole. Just like you have basically shot him down. If Mahomes has put up 10 points and a half when you lose.

[Jason Moore]

Everything you did was wrong.

[Andy Holloway]

It was. No, but this was wrong.

[Mike Wright]

In the moment. We hated it.

[Andy Holloway]

In the moment. It was like what are you doing the whole entire general manager for the team that was in the Booth calling timeout.

[Jason Moore]

So 49er fans as Arizona Cardinals fans. Sorry. Not sorry. To the Chiefs fans. Congratulations. First time in 50 years. Let's do some buy. Sell.

[Andy Holloway]

Buy or sell. Presented by pristine auction.

[Jason Moore]

All right. This is an interesting one because. Well, we'll just talk about it.

[Mike Wright]

All right, this one seems.

[Jason Moore]

How you doing, Brooks? Doing great. You ready for 2020? Oh, yeah. Okay, that's good. Cowboys. I will see about that.

[Andy Holloway]

Less enthusiasm if AJ Green leaves.

[Jason Moore]

Here's the buy sell Tyler Boyd, buy or sell a top 20 wide receiver in 2020. So just for context, he was the wide receiver 17 in 2018. He was the wide receiver 23 last year.

[Andy Holloway]

And that was last year with some very poor play. You had a period without Andy Dalton. All of that said, and I think that they are obviously going to draft Joe Burrow. You can say maybe that is an improvement at quarterback, certainly over the backups that took over last year over Ryan Finley. It is. But this is an easy sell to me. The reason why it's an easy sell is because I don't like wide receivers for rookie quarterbacks, even great ones. I mean, this was why coming into this season, I was not very high on Christian Kirk. I know that was one of the, we had debates on that. It wasn't because Christian Kirk wasn't great and he showed out like he had a couple games where it was like, oh, this is going to be something special here. But rookie quarterbacks, even great ones, they are throwing for low 20s in the touchdowns and they're throwing for, in the 3,000 yards. And so if your volume is just not there in your rookie year, I have a hard time saying that's going to be enough to support, you know, a top 20 wide receiver. So I would, I would sell personally.

[Jason Moore]

It's a sell for me. I, I mean, there were five, five weeks out of 17 that you were happy in or out of 16 that you were happy with Tyler Boyd. And there was no AJ Green this year. So if AJ Green or not, he, he wasn't out there this year, but.

[Mike Wright]

He was still the wide receiver 23 on the year. And that includes his, his goose egg because Ryan Finley was his quarterback and if he had done any, anything of note, you know, just 40 yards or so, he could have ended up as a top.

[Jason Moore]

Well, let me, I mean, do you think when he finished. So he's 90 for just over 1,005 this year. You just wonder, you know, you liked what you saw passing volume wise from Zach Taylor last year.

[Mike Wright]

90 for 1046.

[Jason Moore]

Right. Isn't that not just over a thousand?

[Mike Wright]

I thought I heard you say 1,005. Oh, five touchdowns. I'm sorry.

[Jason Moore]

You're good. You're good. So Tyler Boyd, third most routes run this Past year, seventh most targets. Mike, are you buying or selling?

[Mike Wright]

I'm buying him as a top 20 guy. I'm with you, J. I don't want my wide receivers to be driven or sustained by a rookie quarterback, but I believe he'll be far away the number one option on the team. And he's. I think he's a really good wide receiver. He's. This is back to back years of 1,000 yards for Tyler Boyd. I don't think top. Top 20 is like this huge. It's the right number, but I mean if he ends up as the wide receiver 19, the wide receiver 20, that it's just, it's not shocking. I guess if I'm playing the odds and I think he'll end there, then I should sell because you're taking the field. But I'll buy it. I think Boyd can be a top 20 guy next year.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

I like the talent. I do think Tyler Boyd is a talented wide receiver. I just don't want to pair it with rookie production.

[Jason Moore]

He was the 34th most consistent wideout this past year. Even if you buy top 20 sliding into it, just barely consistency, I can't imagine it being much different than this past year in terms of outside that top 30 with a rookie quarterback myself. All right, that was Buy herself from Pristine Auction. Make sure you go to pristineauction.com use our code ballers. You get $10 towards a sports memorabilia purchase. I recommend you go right now because they're right in the middle of a 10 year anniversary celebration auction this week. There are over 1200 lots right now with no reserves on any of it. And so you can check out, you can check them out on social media. They've got a pretty special announcement coming up on Thursday. But if you go over there right now, pristineauction.com use the code BALLERS. You can take part in that 10th anniversary celebration. Let's talk some news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Jason Moore]

All right. I joked about it briefly, but Adam Schefter is reporting that the NFLPA will conditionally vote for or against a 17 game regular season schedule. This is one of the league's sticking points on a new labor agreement with the players association. The players association wants a higher percentage of revenue and every fantasy footballer, NFL fan in the world wants them to want the same things or at least get what they want so we can have a regularly scheduled 2021 season.

[Andy Holloway]

This will not affect 2020. So if anybody out there is thinking they're hearing about labor disputes and all this Football is already on schedule. This coming year will be excellent and hopefully they sign this deal before the end of this. You know, they're right now voting on it, so hopefully they can get things passed before next year. But football is going on schedule this.

[Mike Wright]

Coming year and it's wild because one of the things that could happen with these, with a 17 game season, there could be two bye weeks. I mean, now we're talking about a 19 week season. There's going to be pretty large changes just to how just fantasy football is structured and playoffs and championships. Hopefully they put the bye weeks in a place where it's friendly for fantasy playoffs and you don't all of a sudden have a second buy in like the, in the actual fantasy playoffs.

[Jason Moore]

Wow. That could, that could happen.

[Mike Wright]

There's a lot to watch out for. It's a complete unknown at this point.

[Jason Moore]

As far as I'm concerned, Mike, that just means that our listeners will do even better.

[Mike Wright]

That's right.

[Andy Holloway]

It's true.

[Mike Wright]

And all the week 17 championship people are there. Yeah, we did it.

[Jason Moore]

We pulled it off.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, we're important in week 17 and we'll be saying no championships in week 19.

[Jason Moore]

That's right. That's right. So we'll, we'll see what happens. If they vote for it, it would go into effect 20, 21. Ryan Fitzpatrick, he says he is playing. He says the Dolphins are very open about wanting him to play for them. He expects it to happen. I would imagine the slight, you know, the best strategy to me seems like barring, you know, if the team wanted to sign Philip Rivers, for example, if Tom Brady wanted to play in Miami, that type of situation could change things for the Dolphins. But outside of, you know, one of those big name guys coming to Miami, it makes the most sense for them to bring in a rookie, put Ryan Fitzpatrick behind center. Get that second year with Ryan Fitzpatrick, he wants to be there. But I imagine the murkiness right now is just related to other free agent options.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And you look, they brought in as offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, a guy who's been the head, you know, the offensive coordinator of Fitzpatrick on two different teams.

[Mike Wright]

Well, Ryan Fitzpatrick has had about 35 offensive coordinators.

[Andy Holloway]

That's right. That's true. But yeah, it should be fun and I'm excited because the Dolphins were unexpected fantasy points this last season once Fitzpatrick got in. And the Devonte Parker. Parker, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Devonte Parker has to be very happy.

[Jason Moore]

Dak Prescott, Adam Schefter reporting that the Cowboys are expected, they're expected to use the franchise Tag on Dak Prescott. Do you have that tweet in front of you, Brooks? Do you want to read it to us? Oh, I do not have it in front of me. Why don't you pull it up while talk about it?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. The last thing I read is of course Dak doesn't want to be franchise tagged because the franchise tag, frankly, that sucks for NFL players. But he, he's already perturbed. Maybe it's just posturing, but he's upset that the deal isn't already done. He's come out and he said, I'm not training in Dallas this year. Please report on that. Like, I mean, he's, he's already positioning himself. A deal will get done.

[Jason Moore]

We've seen this before last year with Ezekiel Elliott, the posturing from two sides.

[Mike Wright]

But you can't.

[Jason Moore]

The discontent, et cetera. I just.

[Mike Wright]

Your quarterback has to be there for training camp, though.

[Jason Moore]

I'm just saying that I think you're right. I think a deal will get done. I think you'll see. Have that stuff come out in the press on both sides of it. This was the tweet league sources telling espn. With no long term contract in sight, Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott are heading straight towards a situation where they will have to use the franchise tech. Brooks, were you going to add something?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's just from an ESPN article that could end up going, you know, a Kirk Cousins situation where they franchised him a couple times and then led to complete free agency. I, I don't think that. I don't think this will happen. I think Jerry signs his guys and he'll sign them to a long term deal.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Also being reported the Raiders would pursue Tom Brady if he doesn't resign with the Patriots. Some news about the Patriots willing to pay Tom Brady in excess of $30 million. I still believe that it's 98% that Brady's back in New England.

[Mike Wright]

I agree.

[Jason Moore]

For however much money.

[Mike Wright]

Which team do you have Tom Brady going to this week? Jason?

[Andy Holloway]

The Indianapolis Colts are a great destination.

[Jason Moore]

Are we going to rotate this until he signs?

[Andy Holloway]

That is right. I. Brooks, can you log when I.

[Jason Moore]

Say you've already got them, you've already got the Titans, right?

[Mike Wright]

Keep up, man.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, but I just want to be able to come back and be like, I see, I called it.

[Jason Moore]

And you would, you would say that.

[Andy Holloway]

No, he's definitely going to resign with the Patriots.

[Jason Moore]

I think that's all we got by way of news. We got some truth we need to get into here before we do that.

[Mike Wright]

We want to thank today's sponsor, Sonos. We've been talking about Sonos for months. It's the best speaker solution out there. All three of us. We have our houses decked out with Sonos gear. It's the best sounding speakers you can find because they are designed for the inside out, for incredibly detailed sound and deep bass, bass, bass. They are fine tuned by Oscar and Grammy winning producers, mixers, artists. They have this trueplay technology that puts speaker tuning capability of the recording pros in the palm of your hands. You just pull out the app. Part of the fun with the Sonos is the unboxing presentation is absolutely top notch. Then you get to use the app. You feel like an absolute wizard setting this thing up even though you're really not having to do anything. And before you know it, you have the best sound coming out of these speakers. You can connect speakers all throughout your house over wifi. You gotta go to sonos.com to learn more. That's s o n o s.com and.

[Andy Holloway]

We want to thank SimpliSafe not only for being a longtime sponsor of the show, but a longtime protector of our studio. We've been with SimpliSafe for years and years and the reason is because they are one of the best ways to protect yourself without a long term contract. And police, they get these false alarm calls all the time. But with SimpliSafe they have monitoring services that can see that, look, someone is inside. There is an issue here. Police will Dispatch up to 350% faster than with a normal burglar alert.

[Mike Wright]

That's a lot faster.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a lot faster. They have outdoor cameras, doorbells, alerts, entry, motion glass, break sensors. They can even protect your home from fires, water damage, carbon monoxide poisoning. It's all monitored 247 by live security professionals. You can set it up yourself. It's really, it's SimpliSafe. Look. Visit simplisafe.com footballers. You'll get a free shipping and a 60 day risk free trial. Go now and be sure you go to simplisafe.comfootballers so they know our show sent you. That's simplisafe.com football footballers.

[Jason Moore]

I got a little confession to make in case you want to know the ins and outs of Simplisafe. We did have an incident the other day and I got a little alarm. I said it said, you know, the alarm's going off at the studio, getting burgled. I was at home and I log in to the camera because I'm like it's like 8 in the morning. I hadn't left yet. I figured it was Brooks, you know, messing something up. Sorry, Brooks. Classic. And all I do is I turn the camera on and I see Jason sitting there eating a burrito.

[Andy Holloway]

It's true. I'm at the table and the whole.

[Jason Moore]

Alarm'S just going off around him.

[Mike Wright]

You're just eating?

[Andy Holloway]

He's just eating. Well, I had a burrito and I had salsa.

[Mike Wright]

So I had to eat the burrito.

[Andy Holloway]

Salsa while the alarm is blaring everywhere.

[Jason Moore]

So I'm like, what is he doing? Why not? Why didn't he put the coat in? I get the call from Simplisafe. They're like, what's your passcode? I'm gonna be honest, I didn't remember it right away. So I go through, I try to go through my three go to passwords and I'm thinking she's gonna be very forgiving on the other end, you know. She hung up on me.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

And she called Jason as he's eating his burrito and he nailed it on the first try.

[Andy Holloway]

I got it. I had things on lockdown. But the reason I was sitting there eating my burrito while the alarm's going off is simply because Brooks was replacing the batteries and he was in the other room taking care of it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm like, all right. But it was quite the picture of Mr. Breakfast over here. I'm not gonna be interrupted by any alarms. I'm willing to break in and eat. But let's.

[Andy Holloway]

There might be a burglar in the back. This burrito is delicious.

[Jason Moore]

Alright, let's get into the truth.

[Andy Holloway]

You want answers?

[Mike Wright]

I think I'm entitled.

[Andy Holloway]

You want answers?

[Jason Moore]

I want the truth.

[Andy Holloway]

You can't handle the truth.

[Jason Moore]

If you're just arriving at the truth episodes. Where you been? That's message number one.

[Mike Wright]

I thought message number one was hello, welcome.

[Jason Moore]

That's what I meant.

[Mike Wright]

Message number two is, where have you been? We've been doing this for a while.

[Jason Moore]

This is the last one, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, this is it. We have covered all of the other kickers.

[Mike Wright]

Jason.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, gosh. That's a solo pot. Our first ever. Jason's doing the Truth About Kickers. It's a two hour extravaganza. We actually won't have a producer here either. It's just you. It will take me in a microphone.

[Andy Holloway]

Seconds to record that episode.

[Jason Moore]

It's all in rhyme.

[Andy Holloway]

The truth about Kickers is they shouldn't be in fantasy football. Click clickers. You were supposed to rhyme it I missed that part.

[Jason Moore]

We're going to talk about the truth of the tight end position. We'll start with this statistic. Eight NFL teams targeted the tight end position 25% or more of the time in 2019. Ravens 42% makes sense. Eagles 39%. Both those teams, multiple tight end options.

[Mike Wright]

I can't believe it's only 42 for the Ravens.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it feels like it should be like 75.

[Mike Wright]

They only run tight ends out there and sometimes Hollywood Brown.

[Jason Moore]

That's right. Willie Sneeds, basically a tight end.

[Andy Holloway]

And they don't pass their running back that much. It's. This does seem surprising.

[Mike Wright]

They should have like a Mighty Ducks flying V formation where they just take all tight ends, but they all like surround Hollywood Brown, so you don't even know he's in there.

[Jason Moore]

Well, you can get Ebron over there too. He's gonna be free.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, yeah, there's.

[Jason Moore]

So The Ravens at 42%. The Eagles at 39%. By the way, the eight NFL teams, that's the most since 2016. The Raiders at 33%. The way.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. The Walrus.

[Jason Moore]

Colts makes sense, right? That's 29%. The 49ers at 28% makes sense. Chiefs at 28% also makes sense. The Rams does not make sense. Went from Everett to Higby.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Went from nothing to Higby all the time.

[Andy Holloway]

Higby was a revelation the last five weeks of the season once he became the starter. We'll talk about the truth about Tyler Higby in a little bit.

[Jason Moore]

And then the Titans at 25%, which sometimes you think, okay, it's just, you know, one or two players, but what do they use? They used Anthony Ferguser all the time.

[Mike Wright]

Ferxer and Joe knew.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Did we?

[Jason Moore]

A little bit more than you'd expect. Lower passing volume.

[Mike Wright]

Have we talked about the news? I mean, it's not like huge hard hitting news, but Delaney, the fact that Greg Olson and the Panthers have talked to each other and they've decided to mutually split ways. So Ian Thomas and his dynasty arrow is pointing up.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

They're. They're making some changes in Carolina.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they are.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

But I thought you were going to bring up Delaney, because I think Delaney is going to. He's a cut candidate.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

And he's getting up there long in the tooth. So let's look at the tight end position. Great games at the tight end position. We're calling any game over 15 fantasy points. Good games between nine and 15 and bus games fewer than six fantasy points. Travis Kelsey's number one. He was also the most consistent tight end in fantasy. Not a surprise. 97 for 12, 29 and 5. What were your takeaways from his Travis Kelce season?

[Andy Holloway]

So Travis Kelsey has been the number one tight end several years running. I don't see any reason to doubt that he will be the number one tight end even with Kittle coming up. The truth is he's very consistent, he's very good. He had a monstrous season and yet the touchdowns weren't there. So you were a little bit disappointed. But given his yardage, his targets, all of that, I would fully expect the touchdowns to go up.

[Mike Wright]

The big thing I was going to get to was that his red zone targets dropped dramatically from 16 two years ago when he was an absolute touchdown monster. And it dropped to seven which turned into a massive drop in red zone touchdowns from nine down to two, which is why you only had the five total touchdowns on the year. So it was disappointing. I think if you, if you paid up the draft capital to get Travis Kelce, you had a difference maker at the position. But he wasn't the same dominant force that he has been in the past, which it certainly could, that could bounce back immediately. Just a weird thing of the red zone targets went down so. But there's not really a whole lot to focus on with Kelsey. Yeah, he's the number one guy.

[Andy Holloway]

If you want safety at the position, draft him.

[Jason Moore]

Yep. George Kittle, number two, second most consistent tight end. My favorite tight end to watch is George Kittle. He's absolutely a dominating force. 71% good games, 43% great games. Always a threat for a monster play. He can do what Gronk used to be able to do, just take a ball in the middle of the field and turn up field and get loose. I mean he is a, an athletic marvel and he just recently said he's been playing with a torn labrum in the right shoulder since 2018 to make things fair. Why? Why? Yeah, that's an. When it's back in 2018 and you chose to just ignore it for a couple of years, that's just to even the, even the playing field.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't think you get to make that excuse anymore because that's just called playing like this is who I am. I just, I like I've got a slightly bad shoulder and I'm playing. I mean if it's been multiple years, I don't know, I feel like George.

[Mike Wright]

Kittle could stitch his own labor back together.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh for sure. He is the Type where he would pull the bullet out of the wound and stuff up and put gunpowder in the belt. Yeah. Oh yeah.

[Jason Moore]

You bite the belt.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

He doesn't even do that shot of whiskey.

[Mike Wright]

He just pops a piece of bubble gum in. Yeah, he's good to go.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he. Look, these two guys are beasts. The question really between those two guys, they're both consistent, both have big blow up games. It's just Travis Kelsey's on the offense, it's going to score more. So projected forward you expect more big games and is that worth the higher draft capital or would you rather they're going to be real close, save a round. Do you think they're a round apart? Probably not.

[Mike Wright]

I think they're maybe a half a round apart.

[Andy Holloway]

If that's the case I would go.

[Jason Moore]

Kelsey Kelsey more targets, more receptions, more yards, same touchdowns. But like Mike said, positive aggression on.

[Mike Wright]

His way and well and George Kittle played.

[Jason Moore]

So if you look at his per.

[Mike Wright]

Game basis he's literally tied in basically in fantasy points and receptions per game with Kelsey.

[Jason Moore]

So if they were around apart, you're still going Kelsey. Jason, is that what you said?

[Andy Holloway]

I am because I think that the touchdowns don't make sense for Kelsey and I would rather have the higher power offense. But I agree to each their own.

[Jason Moore]

Kittle led tight ends and yards route per run for the second year in a row. He's a valuable weapon. Whether they bring back in Emmanuel Sanders, whether they find another weapon, you know Debo will be there but Kittle's a beast. We're moving on.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Darren Waller actually finished the year as the number three overall tight end. He was number eight by consistency rank. How do you, how do you look at Darren Waller after this season? What's the truth about Darren Waller? Eight most confusing.

[Andy Holloway]

So here, let me talk about Darren Waller for a little bit because this is the most confusing tight end. I had to talk to Brooks about him while we were putting this docs together and going through all of our scoring for consistency metrics. Darren Waller was either the most consistent tight end you could be depending on your frame of reference or your, you know, put it this way. I made it to where a bust game is fewer than six points and with that he busted four times, if I made the bust metric, fewer than seven points. He's never busted four times. He scored between six and seven points. And so we had to ask ourselves how does. And this is in half point scoring and I think if you're in half point scoring you felt like those games really let you down, you weren't happy with 6.4 points from, you know, from Darren Waller. And so therefore we included those as busts this year. Six or fewer points, that's what dropped him down to number eight. Because in the middle of the season he had a stretch where he just was super disappointing. And you thought after the first three games you got a superstar. And then at the end of the year, you know, again when Hunter Renfro went down and they needed him more, I think that the truth is Darren Waller, if you're in a full PPR league, consistent enough, very good in a half point or a standard league, he let you down several times. So, you know, that's the truth about Darren Waller is he is a PPR volume dependent guy who surprisingly didn't score a lot of touchdowns. And I would be really surprised if his volume stays at the level that it did this year because I don't think they had many other options and I expect them to have more weapons next season.

[Jason Moore]

Well, we heard they were the number two overall team in terms of target percentage or number three overall in target percentage to the tight end position. Like you said, he was more of the kind of consistency trap that you could be in in the sense that he started so strong. But when you talk about hurt you at the tight end position, it's not the same to me as the other positions are because pivoting at tight end streaming the tight end can be more difficult.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And it's more like what would you have gotten elsewhere when Darren Waller finished at, you know, the 17 overall, the 17th overall tight end in week five? Well, okay, you didn't get a Darren Waller week, came back with number one the next week. What are you going to do? Because you essentially are stuck in that situation where what other tight end are you going to put in there? You need to bet on the fact that you have a guy that can give you a top end performance.

[Mike Wright]

What's crazy for Darren Waller is he only had the three touchdowns. And I looked it up. So you have 28 times a tight end has had 1100 or more yards. Waller was tied for the lowest touchdowns of anyone in that list. So it just like having only three touchdowns, 1100 yards simply doesn't make sense. 75% of those of the times that a tight end is at 1100 or more yards, they've had at least seven touchdowns. So if Darren Waller continues to see the usage that he is, if that he got, then Darren Waller could be even better. But I'm just not sure that the targets are going to keep up.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you have more question marks with Darren Waller than you do a lot of other tight ends. Right. Mark Andrews going into next year, you know who his quarterback is going to be and what the offense is going to be like Kelsey Ertz, those have stability. Waller not only broke out as a fantasy option for the first time in his career this year, but you saw fluctuation based on Hunter Renfro and now you have a Derek Carr that. Who knows if the, if he's the quarterback then is he the quarterback the whole year? That's the kind of thing that sits there. But the athletic profile and the fact that he got paid, I don't understand how Waller isn't somebody that you're taking as a starting tight end.

[Andy Holloway]

He's not going to go away. I don't think he's going to. I think he'll be involved in the offense. It's just a matter of have we not even seen his ceiling or was this his the most utilized? He'll be. That's really the question. And that's going to be dictated by the personnel moves of the Raiders next year. If they go into next season with the roster very similar than it is right now. I'm going to see Darren Waller as, you know, a top six tight end. Someone that I will happily draft, but I expect them to add either in the draft or in free agency. Remember they had Antonio Brown, they, you know, they were connected to Odell Beckham. Rumors before that they wanted someone in there. And I think they're going to, I think they're going to bring something.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Mark Andrews comes in at number four. Consistency rank of number six. Andrews was funny because there were so many weeks in which he was banged up, missed practice, didn't play. He really didn't put up the same kind of numbers against top end tight end defenses. Almost 10 fewer points per week. 60% good games, 33% great. Had the most deep targets amongst tight ends this past year, which is 20. That's as many deep targets as Tyreek Hill. Andrews was somebody that put up double digit touchdowns. One of the few players in the NFL that did that this year. 98 targets and a big play type of guy. When Lamar Jackson was escaping the pocket and looking downfield. Andrews is a big man and you saw it again in the Pro Bowl. He just likes Mark Andrews and he's a weapon. So he's solid year. Very, very solid year for Mark Andrews.

[Mike Wright]

He's just, he's really difficult to gauge moving forward because the talent is undeniable of Mark Andrews in the same with the connection with Lamar Jackson. But he was he not on the field because of the injuries and always being banged up because he averaged about 43% of the offensive snaps for the Ravens. And that's, I mean, that's not the type of play that I'm going to bet on a big season coming through for a tight end.

[Jason Moore]

I just don't care because of the target totals. I don't care about the snap percentage. With the way that this team runs. When Mark Andrews is on the field, he's just the go to receiver. That's right.

[Mike Wright]

What I'm saying is like, I'd take.

[Jason Moore]

Him over Waller next year and that's.

[Mike Wright]

Fair because I don't think I'm not taking a hard stance against Mark Andrews. But this was exactly the type of thing where I was like, dude, I'm so out on Eric Ebron coming into this past year because it was, it was. He was never on the field. He had 13 touchdowns of the, of the. Of tight ends were in the top five for fantasy. Andrews is the only person who had more than six touchdowns. And yeah, it's great.

[Andy Holloway]

He's great.

[Mike Wright]

He has the touchdowns, but we know the touchdowns fluctuate. Like next year if Mark Andrews has.

[Jason Moore]

The same stats but with five touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

And it won't be that surprising of a thing.

[Andy Holloway]

The big difference to me is the target share, though, because Eric Ebron did not have a high target share in that.

[Jason Moore]

In that he did actually.

[Andy Holloway]

His target share.

[Jason Moore]

His target share in 2018 was he had more targets than Andrews had this year.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I know he had more targets, but they threw the ball more. The target share, the percentage of targets that went his way, I would be shocked if they're the same because Mark Andrews felt like a centerpiece of the Ravens offense outside of, you know, when he was injured.

[Jason Moore]

Well, and yeah, and we have the fact that it's, you know, the same offense going into next year, the same quarterback. Andrews is a valuable weapon. But Mike's right in the sense that, you know, five touchdowns next year would not surprise me at all. And then you look at a PPR format, are you happy with 64 for 850 and 5?

[Andy Holloway]

No. Not for where you're going to draft Mark Andrews next.

[Jason Moore]

Not for what you're going to spend. Right, right. So that would be the challenge.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you have the numbers 15 and.

[Mike Wright]

A half percent for Ebron, 23% for Andrews?

[Jason Moore]

That's a huge number because they don't.

[Mike Wright]

Throw very much in Baltimore.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So that. I guess that's what I'm saying. That's where I see a big difference, is that he was Central. I mean, 23% market share for a tight end is very phenomenal.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, that's George Kittle.

[Andy Holloway]

So I believe he is too integral to the actual offense. Whereas Ebron was very touchdown dependent and wasn't as integral to the offense between the 20s.

[Jason Moore]

He probably won you five weeks if you had Mark Andrews.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

1, 2, 10, 11 and 16 put up those kind of performances where that tight end differential was impactful for you. So, you know, you can look at it both ways. You can say maybe the touchdown number regresses, but are the Ravens going to be last in the entire NFL and pass play percentage each and every year with this Lamar Jackson system?

[Mike Wright]

No, but the concern for the Ravens is if you, you get a perfect storm of aggression where if Mark Andrews touchdowns come down. Also because Baltimore is not scoring at the same pace that they did this year, which they scored a lot, they won't score as many touchdowns. I would put the bet on they won't score as many touchdowns next year as they did this year. It's just one of those statistical.

[Jason Moore]

Chiefs just did it.

[Mike Wright]

They overachieved on a big scale. So again, I'm not saying I'm betting against Mark Andrews, but there are certainly red flags I want to see, like, where's his adp? Is the game. Well, I can take Travis Kelsey here in the third or I can get Mark Andrews in the fourth. At that point I would be completely out on Mark Andrews unless he's dropping to like the sixth round or so.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I would take Andrews in the sixth over that third rounder for Kelsey.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. You'd be like mathematically dishonest to assume the same number of touchdowns for Baltimore next year. There should be a lower. A lower number.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And it doesn't mean Baltimore doesn't win the super bowl because go look at the Chiefs. Yeah, the Chiefs had their super year.

[Andy Holloway]

Patrick knocked out, went from what, 50 touchdowns to 30s. Was it. Was it 30?

[Jason Moore]

And then you end up in a situation where, yeah, they're not as prolific, the touchdown percentage goes down, but the team is still great. I think we all expect them 26 to be great.

[Andy Holloway]

26 passing touchdowns. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Zach Ertz is number five, number nine. Inconsistency and probably one of the players that we're going to have a hard time with going into 2020.

[Andy Holloway]

I feel like I'm going to have an easy time with Him. I don't want them.

[Mike Wright]

Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

Like I don't want for what Zach Ertz costs because he was still a top five guy. He's been, you know, a top two guy for years. He'll probably, I would guess he's going to be the third tight end off the board. Maybe he's not. Maybe some of these other new guys come and take over that spot, but I think he's going to be the third guy. And the reality was he wasn't worth his draft capital at all until the decimation of the other receiving options. Now, if you got to the playoffs, you were super happy with Zach Hurts. Right. He dominated from weeks nine through 15. He became the Zach Ertz we know and love. You brought this up so much the previous year, Mike. The fact that his target volume was so dependent upon whether or not there were other options to throw the ball to. And we saw that through the first, you know, eight weeks of the season. I drafted Zach Ertz. I lived the life of what the Eagles wanted to be before they had to throw to Zach Ertz did. It hurts. It hurts bad, man.

[Mike Wright]

He had six double digit target games. Four of those were when Alshon Jeffrey was out.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. His targets weren't there when Alshon was there. And you know, they're going to replenish. They've. Hugh Laurie's talked about, like, they need to get some better, younger House.

[Jason Moore]

Did you say House?

[Andy Holloway]

I did say Hugh Laurie.

[Mike Wright]

I was making the House.

[Jason Moore]

The actor?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

The actor has been really weighing in here.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he is. He goes.

[Jason Moore]

When something hurts, you call house. Isn't that right?

[Andy Holloway]

Why am I thinking, I don't know, Howie.

[Jason Moore]

Jeff Laurie. Is that who you're looking for?

[Andy Holloway]

No. Howie. Oh, wow, that's. That's impressive. Hugh Laurie. Where would that have come from?

[Mike Wright]

You've been watching the new space.

[Andy Holloway]

I have been watching Avenue 5.

[Jason Moore]

Jeffrey Laurie is, you know, he owns the team, doesn't he, man?

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Howie Roseman, the Eagles.

[Jason Moore]

That's the mistake you made. You're the owner.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So anyways, he's come out and talked about wanting to replenish, get some more youth in there and get. He knows that wide receiver is a huge position of need. So, I mean, this is one of those things where, I mean, maybe, maybe it'll happen again and they'll have to throw to him. But you also had the tight, the touchdown problem once Dallas Goddard started siphoning off those touchdowns. I mean, you have part of the year where he was phenomenal for fantasy and part of the year where he sucked. It's just this is the, the episode, the series, the truth. What is the truth of Zach Ertz?

[Jason Moore]

The truth of Zach Ertz is that he's going to be a start worthy tight end again next year.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

That's the truth of Zachary.

[Mike Wright]

It's.

[Jason Moore]

The problem is whether the draft capital catches up with him now or not. They threw the ball to the tight end position more than anybody but Baltimore and maybe it's just all by necessity. Like you said, part of it's weapons.

[Mike Wright]

You have two top end tight ends.

[Jason Moore]

So you know, does Mark Andrews end up getting drafted ahead of Zach Ertz because more Mark Andrews owners ended up winning championships? I think they're going to be pretty close. If you ask me right now. I would imagine Andrews goes a pick or two ahead of earth next year.

[Mike Wright]

I would think so.

[Jason Moore]

Austin Hooper. This is going to be interesting as well. My goodness. Those first eight weeks for Austin Hooper, he finished number six. His consistency rank was number three. Will he be the forgotten man next year? In fantasy drafts, he's got to have a team first. Yeah, I mean you are Talking about top 10 finishes every single week of the season except for week two, all the way through week eight. I mean, before the buy he was dominant. Do you believe?

[Andy Holloway]

I do believe. And not only that, but, you know, they lost some other receiving options. Now. Will he be back in that role? I mean, it's too early to know. But as far as looking at what he did this past year and that's all we can say right now, he was very important to the offense. He made Matt Ryan better. He had a clear rapport and the target volume was so great that he ended up with some monster games too. So there was nothing not to love about Austin Hooper. And you drafted him late, so he was a home run going forward. I, you know, I don't see why, you know, Austin Hooper wasn't an afterthought in the NFL draft. He was a highly touted guy. I remember, you know, a lot of third round pick. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And so, you know, I remember a lot of Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper talk and you know, saying that Hooper, you know, would one day be great and he was great. So, you know, I'm in, I'm a believer if the situation is similar next year that what you saw the first eight weeks of the season is, you know, kind of necessity.

[Jason Moore]

Do you think that they'll pay him? Because they're going to need to pay him. He's 25 years old. I know the Team wants to and they say they want to, but that's going to be a pretty big number for a tight end. And like you said, they lost to new. He's a valuable weapon. We've seen Matt Ryan succeed a lot more when he has a reputable tight end target. Historically speaking. Do you think he'll be back in Atlanta? Because that would sure make predicting his output nice. Nicer.

[Mike Wright]

Eileen, the side that he will. Yeah, but. But not by a ton. I would say maybe 60, 40.

[Jason Moore]

True catch rate is when they adjust for like errant passes. Right. His true catch rate this past year, 97.4%. Matt Ryan's.

[Andy Holloway]

That's almost as good as Kelsey in the red zone. Man, that's. That's some solid number.

[Jason Moore]

Matt Ryan is going to be loaning his printer for that contract. I mean, he is going to be knocking down the door to bring back Austin Hooper. If you can throw the ball to him and if you put it in his vicinity, he catches it no matter what.

[Andy Holloway]

And I feel like because of the fact that he got injured in the second half of the year, he wasn't, you know, that great once he got back from the injury. It wasn't what you saw the first eight weeks of the season. You know, I don't think he's going to be drafted where he should be, you know, if he's back in that role.

[Jason Moore]

Well, let's just put it as we've talked about six tight ends. He's at the bottom of the six. Right. As far as where as where he'll be drafted. Despite being the third most consistent tight end last year, none of the guys we talked about so far are going to go behind Austin Hooper in the draft. Kelsey Kittle, Waller Andrews Ertz, you'll go ahead of Hooper.

[Andy Holloway]

You're probably right. And if that is true, then Hooper will be my number one target in the draft because the value will be great. I'll probably have him as the third tight end in just projections.

[Jason Moore]

Can I give you another target? Jared K. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Jared Kuk was.

[Mike Wright]

That was the longest one.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. It's been a while, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

I feel like you got a.

[Jason Moore]

It's got to be quick.

[Mike Wright]

And the magic of Jared Kuke is.

[Jason Moore]

It'S got to be like a whip.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

It's just a little cuke.

[Jason Moore]

Did you guys see the Sam Elliott commercial?

[Andy Holloway]

Of course. The mustache dance.

[Jason Moore]

There should be a law passed where Sam Elliott can only play Sam Elliott in movies.

[Andy Holloway]

I think there are.

[Mike Wright]

He's pretty type like his name.

[Jason Moore]

His name has to remain. He Cannot play a character. You cannot name his character. That's against the law.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. You could call him Mr. E. Yeah. You know, because, you know, it's still.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's fair.

[Andy Holloway]

Ooh.

[Jason Moore]

You know, but his mustache does the mystery pun there. Mustache does the worm, and then he does all that dancing.

[Mike Wright]

We needed more mustache dance in that commercial.

[Jason Moore]

I enjoy the commercial very much.

[Andy Holloway]

So the thing with Jerry, are we moving on to Jared Kuk?

[Jason Moore]

I guess.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, so the thing with Jared Kuick, he's. He was much better than I thought he was going to be this year.

[Jason Moore]

Consistency ranked number five.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Very consistent. Very good. When I look at the totality of all the tight ends and the consistency front to back of how they performed, there's two kind of numbers that really stand out to me. Take the top two guys out. They were, you know, Kelsey and Kittle were great. Every other really, actually relevant tight end was. Their bust rate was almost identical. 25, 33, 33, 23, 29%. Like, you know, basically about a third of their games they bust. But the percentage of great games that these tight ends perform at, they weren't the same. So, like, Jared Cook was down at 21, Zach Ertz was down at 19, and let's see, Darren Waller was down at 19% of their games as great games. So they didn't have as many games that were great. In Jared Kuke's position, it was because they didn't necessarily need him to. He could. He could do it. He was phenomenal. But when you got Michael Thomas and you got all these other options, he wasn't as often necessary to have a big game. And so the other players that are mixed in, Mark Andrews, Austin Hooper, and a guy we're yet to talk about who had a percentage of monster games way higher up in the 30s, I think I want the guys who have. I'm not worried about how often they bust. I'm worried about how often they can have a great game. That's kind of one of my takeaways from this series for next year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Cook is hard, though, Jay, for me, because if.

[Andy Holloway]

Who. Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

Because the first.

[Mike Wright]

Well, he was Jared Cook for the first four games.

[Jason Moore]

That's what I was going to say is you have a new player on a new team for four weeks. If you break down the percentage of times he put up great games beyond week five, that number goes up quite a bit.

[Andy Holloway]

30%, and that would be much better. That's in line with the other players.

[Jason Moore]

So if you tell me that'd be higher than the 21.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm saying that would be. I'm saying 30% would be basically in the tier of the Hoopers, Mark Andrews.

[Jason Moore]

And I would say if you don't have Kittle or Kelsey, you're probably happier with Jared Cook from weeks five on than anybody else in all of football.

[Mike Wright]

You could have got Cook off the waiver wire.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, his worst game in that entire span was 14th at the position. Every other week he was inside the top 12. I just mean from a happiness factor. If Drew Brees is back and Jared Kuk is back, I don't know, I go Kuking again.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, look, if the first month of the season was a new team, getting involved, getting used to it, and that is, that's the reason that I think you're right, that Jared Cook would, you know, should be phenomenal next year, I think that that's an easy reason to say, but it could also just been they had other great options because they have other great options.

[Jason Moore]

Who?

[Andy Holloway]

Michael. The offense.

[Jason Moore]

I know they have Michael Thomas, but who do they have beyond Michael Thomas? That's it.

[Mike Wright]

Option.

[Andy Holloway]

He became Camara. I would put him in there as well. I'm just saying it's.

[Jason Moore]

I'm shocked by Cook's consistency. His consistency was outlandishly good from weeks five on. So whether it was newness or not, they figured it out in week five and it lasted through the rest of the year, which was nice to see because Jared Cook has been in a position to be projected to do well many, many times in the past and never done this before. Maybe that's a reason to avoid this.

[Mike Wright]

Was the reverse Cook because he was bad week one?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, that's interesting.

[Mike Wright]

Jerry Cook is legendary for being awesome week one, making fantasy players spend 20% of their fab.

[Andy Holloway]

And then he. Copperfields.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Just. Well, he's gone.

[Mike Wright]

We now call it the Hawkinson.

[Andy Holloway]

So here's something I was curious. We have three different really important tight ends this year that had real, real bad stretches. You had Jared Cook with the first month of the season where he was terrible. You had Austin Hooper post injury where he wasn't the same as after those first eight weeks. And you have. We're going to talk about him soon. Tyler Higby, who was unfathomably good the last five weeks, but the beginning of the season wasn't a starter. I went into our metrics and I just deleted out all of those bad stretches. If we say there's legitimate reason. If. Okay, so if, you know, Hooper was dealing with the injury, if Cook was getting used to the new team and Higby obviously was not the starter yet. Based on all of those metrics, Austin Hooper would have been the number one most consistent. Tyler Higby would have been the number five most consistent. And to your point here, Andy, Jared Cook would have been the number two most consistent tight end, even ahead of Kelsey and Kittle.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Because he was awesome.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we need to talk about a few more names that might have some big time relevance next year and need some truth revealed. Tyler Higby. Tyler Higby is weeks 13 on what's a revelation? What he was the consistency rank of number 10 in the full season from weeks 11 through 17. He was number three in that span. He was absolutely dominant. But how do you really bank on five weeks of a Sean McVay offense to define where you're drafting Tyler Higby? He's the kind of player that you could draft him. Like he will go late. Yes, he will 100% go late. So you either go late and you catch lightning in a bottle or you go late and you over commit to a player that isn't actually part of the offense. Or he goes late and he is a revelation for you.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, the nice thing is that when that change happened the last five weeks, there was it, it was not simply just, hey, let's throw it to this guy a little bit more and see how he does. You had a snap percentage the whole season that was in the 50s, 60s. And then the last five weeks his snap percentages were 91, 97, 85, 89 and 96% of offensive snaps. They said he is now the starter, he is now a centerpiece of this offense. So I think we're going to have to wait and see going into next year. Is he featured like that? I mean, I don't know if we're going to have the insight before the season to know for sure. If we do, I'm all in. But I think it's worth the gamble. I think it's worth gambling.

[Mike Wright]

Like if he's like, I was sitting over here, you guys, oh, he's going to go late. If he is going late, then I'm 100% all in. He'll be the guy I target at the end of drafts because it, it was only five games but like Jason saying, it was a very, very clear decision that they said this works and this is what we're going to move forward with because before when he was, he turned into what, 90 plus percent of the snaps type of a player. He was, you know, chilling in the 50s or so. I mean he just, he wasn't a part of the offense. The tight end as a whole was, was never a huge part of the offense because it was the three wide receivers in Woods, Cooper cup and Brandon Cooks. And Brandon Cooks absolutely disappeared and they've just replaced him with a tight end. So if Higby is going late, then I'll be all in on drafting him because if it doesn't work out, then I'll just figure something else out.

[Jason Moore]

Couple tight ends. We can't forget about Evan Ingram. Evan Ingram, when he played, put up a 25% great game number. That is difference making. Weeks 1, 3, 8 big time weeks from Evan Ingram, obviously injured, didn't play a lot. Daniel Jones, Eli Manning did the dance. But we can't forget about Evan Ingram. I imagine he will be another late round tight end type of situation.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he'll be drafted pretty high. I think people, based on his history of being good for fantasy and his original draft capital, I think people will.

[Jason Moore]

Be inside the top eight.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think he'll be inside the top eight draft tight ends.

[Jason Moore]

Interesting.

[Andy Holloway]

And I probably will be out not based on talent, but just based on injury history. He's at this point you got to worry whether the guy can stay on the field.

[Jason Moore]

Well then you don't want me to bring up this guy because.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh no.

[Jason Moore]

Will Disley, oh man, he didn't get to play much, but 50% of the time he put up a great game. His consistency rank was actually number four. Only played weeks one through six. It was special, but he burned bright. Yeah. This was also during a period of time in which we didn't see a lot from DK Metcalf yet. And it will be hard for, it will be hard for anybody to kind of be in on a returning from devastating injury. Will Disley.

[Mike Wright]

I bet against him returning from the torn patella. I will bet against him returning from a torn Achilles. I'm sorry, Big Montana. Yeah, I want you to succeed, but I, oh man, it's just really unfortunate.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean if you take out the injury game where he basically didn't play that Week 6, he would be the most consistent tight end. He was unbelievably great and we, we talked about it on the quarterback episode. Russell Wilson and his touchdown volume was really hurt when he lost Disley. I mean, Disley is a great red zone guy for Russell Wilson and if he can get back out on the field, I mean, you know, at least give some kind of hope. And excitement for the future of tight ends that there'll be enough to field 12. Like, that's just. We just need 12, right? 12 good ones.

[Jason Moore]

The truth about the tight end position is that it's a difficult position to, you know, figure out beyond the top few guys in terms of where you want to commit yourself. Because if you commit yourself to Evan Ingram at the Great Value, are you getting the injury bug? Are you getting the inconsistency? You know, betting on a Will Dizzley? Yeah, you got four good games from him, but maybe he's back on the field. But is he the same Will Disley after an injury? Because a lot of players aren't after that type of injury. It's just hard. Yeah, I mean, Hunter Henry might have a new team. Austin Hooper might have a new team.

[Andy Holloway]

This is why I don't blame people when they take a tight end early the way that you take a quarterback early. And it's just not a strategy that.

[Mike Wright]

I think one of those guys was Ertz, because.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, sure, but I'm saying take the shot on a known commodity. You could be wrong. But the point with the difference between tight end and quarterback is that there are. So there's just an endless option at quarterback. Just grab someone off of waivers. They're all pretty good. There's five or six late round quarterbacks that are phenomenal. There's just not with tight ends. If you want a really, you know, you want a Kittle, you want a Kelsey, that like, that's the end of the tier. That's. That's it. You have to pay up for one and then that. You can't just always find one. I mean, the last couple years, it's, it's worked out. You know, Darren Waller was a great success for us.

[Mike Wright]

George Kittle was in fact one of those guys. Sure, there's usually one, one or two, but you're right, it's not the same amount as quarterbacks.

[Jason Moore]

All right, anything else you guys want to throw on? I think we're done.

[Mike Wright]

I just wanted to at least briefly talk about Dallas Goddard. What do you guys make of his season over the second half? I mean, he really started to turn it on there with, what do we got? 7 games as a top 12. Fools go.

[Jason Moore]

Fools go really big time.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I agree.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, Zach, Zach, I love that. Here's why. Two reasons. First, huge, compelling arguments that have been repeated on this show multiple times about the percentage of the ball going to the tight end position. If those apply to Zachary's, they apply even More to Dallas Goddard. 2. I watched them play football. Super athletic, talented guy has a case of the drops from time to time, has a problem holding on to the football which. And he's never going to be a better option than Zach Ertz on the offense. Ertz is a much better player. So then you're banking on all of those arguments not coming true. And he really didn't put up difference making weeks very often, even when he had the opportunity.

[Andy Holloway]

I agree. It's hard to roll with the second tight end on a team. At the end of the year he might be okay. He might be a top 12 tight end. Like he was, he was number 10. But it wasn't good. You didn't enjoy the ride. I mean he had 7% of his games were great games. 40% of his games were busts. If you rolled with the number like that's one of the misleading things. Oh, He's a tight end one, he's a top 10 tight end. It doesn't matter. There's like five good tight ends. If you didn't have one of them, it doesn't matter if you had tight end 7 or 8. I remember last year, I think Trey Burton, gigantic bust, terrible trade. He was like the tight end seven or something. It was like, it could sound good, but the truth is it's not good. So tight end 10, not good enough to win in fancy football.

[Jason Moore]

I will say this, Mike, to Goddard's credit, he is the kind of player that could have 44 receptions and 13 touchdowns in an outlier type of year. I mean he's that big and strong and that, that kind of red zone weapon. But I'm just, I think I was personally disappointed with the opportunity that he had over the back half.

[Mike Wright]

He's also only a second year at the tight end position. He's going into year three. I mean Zach Ertz wasn't, he wasn't really Zach Ertz until at least a few years into his career. And they're. Philly's going to run two tight end sets. They've, they've said this is what we're going to continue to do. He was a second round pick when they didn't seem to need a tight end. I don't know, I just, I don't.

[Jason Moore]

Know if I'm going to go there.

[Mike Wright]

All right. I think it's possible for Goddard.

[Andy Holloway]

I think it is possible and I love the talent. I've always been a Goddard apologist. Drafted him super high in our startup dynasty this last year because I believe in the talent couple years, couple years from now. Yeah, I agree. I think he's going to have a good career, but I think it'll take a couple more years.

[Jason Moore]

Unless it doesn't. And then, and then I'm wrong. That is it for the show. Thank you for tuning in the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Appreciate the subscriptions, the reviews. We'll be back with another show Thursday.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the Ffballers and Foot Glan. Don't forget, with SimpliSafe Home Security, you get comprehensive protection from your home with real video evidence to give police eyewitness account. Get them out there 350% faster than a normal burglar alarm and it's all monitored 24. 7. Visit simplisafe.comfootballers you'll get free shipping and a 60 day risk free trial. That's simplisafe.comfootballers.