The TRUTH: Second Tier RBs in 2019 - Fantasy Football Podcast

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast: The TRUTH: Second Tier RBs in 2019"

Release Date: January 23, 2020
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
Episode Title: The TRUTH: Second Tier RBs in 2019

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Introduction

In this episode of The Fantasy Footballers, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright dive deep into the analysis of running backs (RBs) from the 2019 NFL season. Focusing on second-tier RBs, they evaluate consistency, performance metrics, and the impact of injuries and team dynamics on fantasy football outcomes.

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1. News and Updates (05:15 - 11:52)

NFL Draft on the Water:
The hosts kick off with exciting news about the upcoming NFL Draft, which is set to take place around the iconic Bellagio fountains in Las Vegas. They humorously speculate on the logistics and potential mishaps of staging the draft on moving water.

• Jason Moore (05:19): "The NFL draft is legitimately going to have a fountain. They're going to have a fountain on the water of the Bellagio..."

• Andy Holloway (06:13): "I'm pretty sure that's a hoax. That's not real."

Browns Hiring Bill Callahan:
Bill Callahan is anticipated to take over as the interim head coach for the Cleveland Browns. The trio discusses how Callahan's offensive philosophy could benefit RB Nick Chubb, projecting him as a top-five back.

• Andy Holloway (07:37): "If Kareem Hunt signed somewhere else... that's going to be a top five back."

Jay Gruden Joins Jaguars:
Jay Gruden is appointed as the offensive coordinator for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The hosts express optimism about his ability to elevate the team's offensive performance, particularly benefiting RB Leonard Fournette.

• Mike Wright (09:51): "I think this is a really solid hire. I think it's good news for Leonard Fournette and I'm excited to see what he can do."

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2. Beat the Ballers Recap (12:02 - 15:00)

The hosts recap the "Beat the Ballers" competition, where listeners compete against them for a chance to win prizes. They highlight the performances of Mike Wright, Jason Moore, and themselves, discussing strategies and outcomes from the previous week’s competition.

• Jason Moore (12:13): "...Mike beat 28% of you. Jason beat 18% of you with 40 points. I beat just 11% of you with 36 points."

They also tease the upcoming "Ballers Bowl," a $10,000 prize pool competition where they will each pick one player from the Super Bowl to form a team.

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3. Running Back Truth: Consistency Rankings (15:00 - 59:56)

The core of the episode centers on analyzing the consistency of various RBs from the 2019 season. The hosts use a ranking system to evaluate how reliable each RB was in delivering consistent fantasy points throughout the season.

a. Leonard Fournette (Consistency Rank: 9)

Fournette exceeded expectations in receptions, doubling last year's target projections, which contributed to his top-ten finish despite Jacksonville's offensive struggles.

• Jason Moore (15:00): "His receiving totals made up for the lack of touchdowns, which made him more consistent."

b. Saquon Barkley (Consistency Rank: 14)

Barkley's season was marred by injuries, leading to decreased performance upon his return. Despite strong potential, his consistency suffered due to limited targets and performance dips.

• Mike Wright (20:12): "He had a touchdown on every 88 carries."

c. Chris Carson (Consistency Rank: 17)

Carson showed great talent but struggled with fumbling issues early in the season. The hosts discuss his potential for future seasons if Seattle bolsters its depth chart.

• Mike Wright (27:05): "The dude's a beast. He fits perfectly in the system that Seattle wants to run."

d. Alvin Kamara (Consistency Rank: 6)

Despite touchdown regression, Kamara remained a reliable RB due to his yardage and reception totals. The hosts defend his consistency ranking, emphasizing his continued value in fantasy drafts.

• Mike Wright (30:07): "His yards per reception were still strong, making him one of the best fantasy running backs."

e. Joe Mixon (Consistency Rank: 22)

Mixon's performance improved significantly in the latter half of the season, aligning with the Jaguars' overall team performance. The hosts express high confidence in Mixon's potential for the next season.

• Jason Moore (37:46): "Joe Mixon is a player. What's his ceiling?"

f. Todd Gurley (Consistency Rank: 12)

Gurley struggled with decreased efficiency and reduced receiving involvement. The inconsistency stemmed from offensive line issues and coaching decisions.

• Andy Holloway (41:08): "He was a top five running back last year but didn't finish as one this year."

g. Miles Sanders vs. Devin Singletary (Consistency Ranks: 29 vs. 27)

Sanders, despite being a rookie with impressive stats, was weighed against Singletary, whose path as the primary RB for the Buffalo Bills remains clear but limited by team dynamics.

• Mike Wright (46:10): "It's difficult to put these two guys together because Devin Singletary's path is clear."

h. Le'Veon Bell (Consistency Rank: 13)

Bell was average throughout the season but showed potential for increased value with a more stable team environment. The hosts consider him a viable RB2 option.

• Jason Moore (52:07): "All I'm saying is you're going to be facing decisions in next year's draft about taking Hopkins, Thomas, Devonte Adams in the first round... I'm fine with Joe Mixon as my RB1."

i. Josh Jacobs (Consistency Rank: 10)

Jacobs demonstrated strong performance but was hindered by injuries. The hosts discuss his high ADP (Average Draft Position) and potential as a solid second-round pick.

• Jason Moore (54:31): "He's a top-five talent in the NFL."

j. James Conner (Consistency Rank: 20)

Conner's season was inconsistent due to injuries and team dynamics. The hosts debate his future potential, considering Pittsburgh's offensive direction.

• Andy Holloway (59:40): "I worry about James Conner next year just from what we saw this year."

k. Additional RBs: Melvin Gordon, Raheem Mostert, Damian Williams, etc.

The hosts briefly touch on other RBs, highlighting their consistency rankings and performance nuances, emphasizing the complexity of predicting future outcomes based on past inconsistencies.

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4. Conclusion and Looking Ahead (59:56 - End)

Wrapping up, the hosts reiterate the importance of consistency in RB performance for fantasy football success. They tease upcoming episodes and competitions, encouraging listeners to stay engaged and utilize their insights for better draft strategies.

• Jason Moore (64:34): "The big game is this weekend. Go Pro Bowl. Goodbye."

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Notable Quotes

• Jason Moore (05:19):
  "The NFL draft is legitimately going to have a fountain. They're going to have a fountain on the water of the Bellagio..."

• Mike Wright (07:37):
  "Bill Callahan more man than Kevin Stefanski when it comes to running the ball."

• Andy Holloway (08:14):
  "If Kareem Hunt signed somewhere else... that's going to be a top five back."

• Jason Moore (37:46):
  "Joe Mixon is a player. What's his ceiling?"

• Andy Holloway (41:08):
  "He was a top five running back last year but didn't finish as one this year."

• Jason Moore (52:07):
  "All I'm saying is you're going to be facing decisions in next year's draft about taking Hopkins, Thomas, Devonte Adams in the first round... I'm fine with Joe Mixon as my RB1."

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Key Takeaways

• Consistency is Crucial: Reliable RB performance is vital for fantasy football success. Players with steady outputs are more valuable than those with sporadic high scores.

• Injuries Impact Rankings: Injuries played a significant role in the inconsistency of several RBs, affecting their overall fantasy rankings.

• Team Dynamics Matter: Coaching changes, offensive line performance, and quarterback stability directly influence RB performance and their fantasy value.

• Draft Strategies: Understanding the nuances of each RB's season helps in making informed decisions during drafts, prioritizing players who are likely to offer consistent returns.

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Final Thoughts

This episode provides an in-depth analysis of the 2019 RB landscape, offering valuable insights for fantasy football enthusiasts. By dissecting individual performances and broader team impacts, the hosts equip listeners with the knowledge to enhance their fantasy strategies for future seasons.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Foreign to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, coming to you from Pristine Auction.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Ah, welcome in Thursday, January 23rd. Were those hiccups? Mike was.

[Mike Wright]

No, those are.

[Andy Holloway]

Those are hits.

[Mike Wright]

Those are hype grunts.

[Jason Moore]

One thing I noticed from the listeners from the fans, from the foot clan, especially the YouTube universe, they're really not coping properly with the lack of the it's football time on Thursday's episode. It's like they think you forgot to do it. They don't understand that, you know, absence makes the heart grow fonder.

[Mike Wright]

And I have bad news.

[Jason Moore]

Not happening for a while.

[Mike Wright]

Ladies and gentlemen, it is not football time.

[Jason Moore]

It's not football time.

[Mike Wright]

And it will not be. There'll be things along the way. There'll be a draft. There'll be. Oh, combine.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you'll hit that.

[Mike Wright]

It's combine time when that happens.

[Jason Moore]

But we don't record the show and release it on Sunday. It's all about the release day. Yes, the combine's happening. I mean, this is my assumption.

[Mike Wright]

And look, Jason, the syllables. It's super bowl time. Like this.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Come on, Jason.

[Mike Wright]

It's big. Oh, big game. You can go with the big game.

[Jason Moore]

It's big game time. Great. Welcome into the show Running Back Truth part two. Today we're going to recap Beat the Ballers from the weekend. I did realize we didn't talk about one player in our recap, so let's start there. I mean, how funny is it that his first touchdown of the season since week one happens in prime time? Because of course it does. Nobody started him in a fantasy lineup. This is how nobody even probably started him in a playoff Beat the Ballers lineup. Who's touching that man?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, so. So we are. We're already so scaly working on. I'm changing all of our spreadsheets, our docs behind the scenes for the 2020 UDK, which presale starts on the super bowl time. But the reality is we're in this in between phase where I can look at every single projection we made last year, down to, you know, down to every passing attempt to complete target target and what, what their results were. And just look across the board. How did we do on everything? And it was so funny to see Sammy Watkins. It's like, oh, I had him down for seven touchdowns. He got three. Three in week one. In week one. And nothing.

[Jason Moore]

That was fun to look at this morning. We were going through, like, the rookies looking at how we projected Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary, Some of those players, Dalvin Cook, you know, had the big year. Yeah, we hit on quite a few.

[Andy Holloway]

It was fun to look at.

[Jason Moore]

There were certainly. It was funny, the big outliers. Like, we all projected Christian McCaffrey to be very. To perform very well this year. But then you look at the stat line of what we projected to what.

[Mike Wright]

He did, because you can't. We can't in good conscience.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly.

[Mike Wright]

You can't project a man for what he did.

[Jason Moore]

No, that's not fair. That's not right.

[Andy Holloway]

You can't project. I mean, like, the projections were. I had very good projections for Derek Henry.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

But not really. And for Michael Thomas, except not really because we didn't project super, otherworldly career years.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you can't. And you can't go in and project 20 touchdowns for somebody, you know, over the course of the year. 15 total touchdowns. Apparently, we are still giving away a signed Sammy watkins [e-mail] oh, that's why. That's why he delivered.

[Mike Wright]

He had a big game because he's like, oh, man, I got to boost the value of that helmet.

[Jason Moore]

So let me narrow the focus of this promotion. If you are a Kansas City Chiefs fan. Look, Sammy fan giveaway.com to win this sign, Sammy friends and family of Sammy Watkins. This is available all the lizard.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah, Lizard people community.

[Jason Moore]

Go to footclangiveaway.com your king has a.

[Andy Holloway]

Helmet@Footclan giveaway.com that's a quote.

[Jason Moore]

Your king has a helmet. Find us on twitter @ the ff ballers. You'll find out about everything that's going on around Foot Clan headquarters and beyond. We've got the ultimate draft kit, which is available for presale, lowest possible price on Super Bowl Sunday, just like it was last year. And like Jason said, we're already, you know, working on it. We're already getting things rolling towards 2020. Some upgrades, some improvements to the mobile app, some new features sure to make their way into the 2020 UDK. So very excited about that. You can find us on YouTube. YouTube.com the fantasy footballers. And obviously, we support all or we appreciate all your [e-mail] we support your.

[Mike Wright]

Support of our support.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, if your support had a Patreon, we would support it 100%. Yeah. Let's get into the news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Jason Moore]

All right, this is big, big news, guys. The NFL draft is legitimately going to have. They're going to have a fountain. The NFL draft is going to be on the water of the Bellagio, it's going to be built out and then they're going to bring the players to the draft stage on a boat.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike. Mike saw this yesterday. We're in this. We're in the office. And he's like, oh, my gosh. They're going to put the stage on the fountains of the Bellagio and boat players to it. And I let him know, like I had seen that. I'm like, mike, no, I'm pretty sure that's a hoax. That is. I mean, that's not real. Like, that's a funny goof. That's good. It's in Vegas. But it's like, not for real.

[Jason Moore]

I hope it's super for real.

[Andy Holloway]

Super for real. Clark County, Nevada's verified Twitter account is sharing the plans. And yeah, that's legit.

[Mike Wright]

I hope they forget to turn the fountains off.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah. And oh, like the sprinklers come on in the yard type of thing.

[Mike Wright]

Instead of sprinklers, everyone's just getting a power washed enema.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, they're. They're getting shot up into the air.

[Mike Wright]

Those things are ferocious power, Jason.

[Jason Moore]

Roger Goodell gets sent up 40ft before he splashed down.

[Andy Holloway]

I can't wait to see all of the fancy suits with the life jackets on over. Put this on if you're getting in that boat.

[Jason Moore]

It's ironic.

[Andy Holloway]

Four feet of water here.

[Jason Moore]

We were just there. We just walked by the Bellagio for the Fantasy Sports and Gaming association conference, and I asked you two gentlemen how much I'd have to pay to take a Jet Ski out on that for an hour just to, you know, have a good time.

[Mike Wright]

Can the number one pick request a Jet Ski?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, like burrow.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, the thing. Burrow. He's got the swag. If anyone's gonna ask for a jet Ski, he's gonna do it.

[Jason Moore]

Look, at the end of the day, I just saw the ratings for the conference championship games and they were, they were good. And as much as both games drew more than 40 million viewers, but they were actually down from last year. And there's only one way to combat that and it is obviously a draft on the water. So well done, NFL. Some other fantasy relevant news. The Browns are expected to hire ex Redskins offensive line and what temporary head coach Bill Callahan.

[Mike Wright]

This is very interesting. Kevin Stefanski run heavy. Coach, I'm a, I'm outman you with how we run the. How much we run this ball. Bill Callahan more man than Kevin Stefanski when it comes to running the ball. Got production out of Adrian freaking Peterson on Washington, who could do nothing for a while with Dwayne Haskins. Like, we're very, very early in the process. But if you, if, if you are not getting excited for Nick Chubb right now, then you are not alive.

[Andy Holloway]

If Kareem Hunt signed somewhere else, as is very much in the realm of possibility, and you've got the Callahan led desire to run offense with Nick Chubb there, that's going to be a top five back.

[Jason Moore]

Well, there were a lot of people when Stefanski went to be the head coach of the Browns that said, well, let's not, oh, let's not just apply the Dalvin Cook success. What he wants to do as the head coach is that more Zimmer? Well, you don't go higher, Bill Callahan.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Unless you are leaning into your strength. And the truth is that's the strength of that offense. You're not. We saw last year, you know, say whatever you want about Baker Mayfield ceiling his range of outcomes. He wasn't able to just muster up a successful offense on improvisation, on getting outside the pocket, on overcoming the offensive line. Their team ran, you know, their offense was successful because of Nick Chubb and Cream Hunt. And so I would just go as far as to say, even if Kareem Hunt is coming back, I am very enthusiastic about this offense. Nick Chubb's season was not dependent on touchdowns and it was not dependent on the passing game, work and success in the passing game. So I still think it's a very stable base for a top 10 running back. If Stefanski Callahan are there, even with Hunt, personally.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I agree.

[Jason Moore]

So Kyle Shanahan said Tevin Coleman suffered a dislocated shoulder in the title game, so we'll see if he's available. I would be projecting Breida for more work than Coleman, but we'll see. If Coleman's active, then he'll probably be involved.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, and then it's the big game. It's going to be juiced up.

[Jason Moore]

It's the big game.

[Mike Wright]

Jay Gruden, offensive this is a big deal, man.

[Jason Moore]

Offensive coordinator for the Jacksonville Jaguars like Jay Gruden.

[Mike Wright]

It didn't work out for him to be a head coach. I mean, I thought he did all.

[Andy Holloway]

Right with what he was.

[Mike Wright]

To his credit, I thought he did okay. He maybe even did better than he should have given his circumstances. But it's a long. It's a long time ago. But you guys remember Andy Dalton?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

When Jay Gruden was the OC For Cincinnati.

[Andy Holloway]

There's a reason Jay Gruden went from OC to head coach, and it's because of what he was able to do when he was an offensive coordinator with the Bengals. I think this is a really solid hire. And, you know, it's. I think it's good news for Leonard Fournette and I'm excited to see what he can do.

[Mike Wright]

There is a great news for Gardner or Nick Foles.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, that's going to depend on who the. Who the starting quarterback is, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

But that's a. That's a under the mattress way of asking who's the quarterback, Jason?

[Andy Holloway]

I think it's going to be Gardner.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. The hiring of Jay Gruden leans me more towards Foles than not, but we'll see. The truth is, is. And we had. Who is my lifelong favorite head coach?

[Andy Holloway]

Hugh.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I guess that's true. Hugh Jackson. Like, he came out and said that you shouldn't hold his Browns record against him. And like. Like what? So I'm picturing the application, the coaching application. Jay Gruden. Like, if you have coached the Washington Redskins, you get the asterisks and then the asterisks. You look down at the bottom of the page and it says is the Redskins.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

And then the asterisks for Hugh Jackson is the Browns. So Gruden did a lot with what he had there. I thought, you know, firing him was just like the next thing on the list to do for dissatisfaction in your team, but nothing to do with his performance. I like him. I think he's good for Jacksonville. And that's it for the news.

[Mike Wright]

You hold that against me. You went winless, man. That's impossible. Well, not impossible because you did it.

[Andy Holloway]

But you almost did it twice, which is super impressive. Get out of here.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, fair enough.

[Andy Holloway]

Beat the Ballers. Presented by Monkey Knife fight.

[Jason Moore]

All right, the running back truth, part two, coming up. First, I want to jump in to beat the Ballers last week. Congratulations, Foot clan.

[Mike Wright]

You all you turds who played Mostert.

[Jason Moore]

Against us, who destroyed us now, Mike was the best of the three of us. He only beat 28% of the Foot Clan with 45 points. That's with Derek Henry, Travis, Kelsey, Tyreek Hill. Hill had a great week. Kelsey, Henry, Kelsey, not so much. Mike beat 28% of you. Jason beat 18% of you with 40 points. I beat just 11% of you. You're welcome. With 36 points.

[Mike Wright]

You got most eared it as well because you took San Francisco players I had named Samuel.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So 528 users beat us last Week. Shared the shameful. Shared the monetary reward for doing so. The Ballers bowl is coming. The Ballers bowl means there's a $10,000 prize pool. Next week, we are going to each pick one player from the super bowl, and we're going to form one team.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to take Raheem.

[Jason Moore]

You're going to take Raheem Most.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't want to spoil next week, but there's no way I'm not taking Raheem Most. You can't talk. I mean, we got to talk about this as a group.

[Mike Wright]

Right?

[Jason Moore]

We're going to put one team together, the three of us, one player each. If you beat us next week in the Ballers bowl, there's a $10,000 prize pool heading your way. More of those details are coming next week when we make the picks, and we'll tell you how to enter. And obviously, if you've beat us, if.

[Mike Wright]

You'Re not going to.

[Jason Moore]

Well, in the past, over the last few weeks, if you've beaten us and you've got your Ballers bowl entries, you'll be able to add as many entries.

[Mike Wright]

As you've won and thank Andy for your free entry.

[Jason Moore]

I'm glad we've rotated back to me being the Stink. Mike's never been the Stink.

[Mike Wright]

No, he's.

[Jason Moore]

Jason and I have been alternating Stink.

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe we should have Mike pick us up.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe I should pick Most Dirt and you should pick Tyreek so that we don't mess this thing up.

[Andy Holloway]

So you're thinking if I pick Mostert and you pick Tyreek, we're doomed.

[Jason Moore]

We're doomed because that's what happened two weeks ago. Or what if Mike just picks our team?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

That would also help the equation.

[Mike Wright]

My shoulders are ready.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you think that. So lots of people out there playing Beat the Ballers. It's been a really fun time.

[Jason Moore]

It's made the playoffs. Pretty fun.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Do you believe that the people out there are wanting us to have a really good roster?

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

So that if they beat us, they get a larger share of the 10,000? Or are they hoping, like, oh, man, we just. We stink and it's just easy winnings?

[Jason Moore]

I would imagine they want us to be just worse than their score, regardless of what that means. But, yeah, next week you'll be able to check it out. Beattheballers.com we'll make our picks on next week's episode before the Super Bowl. Can't wait. Going to be a lot of fun.

[Andy Holloway]

You want answers?

[Mike Wright]

I think I'm entitled. You want Answers.

[Jason Moore]

I want the truth.

[Mike Wright]

You can't handle the truth.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we're back in the truth of the fantasy football running back position from 2019. Breaking down the consistency of a ton of running backs, looking at how many great games they had, how many good games, how many bust games did they perform, you know, up to their fantasy finish. And one guy that did, the next guy on the list, Leonard Fournette, number nine. That's where he finished. His consistency rank was number nine. And you know, we talked earlier on the show about how we were looking at last year's projections. My projection for Leonard Fournette was pretty spot on until you walked up to the receiving totals and he legitimately doubled the target total I had projected for him last year. He had 100 targets. I think I had him down for 52. He ended up with 76 receptions. And that led to a top 10 year in terms of performance and consistency.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I mean, honestly, when you're going into your projections, you got to project Leonard Fournette to have more targets than Alvin Camara.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, my goodness.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, like, that's, that's easy. More than James White, Le'Veon Bell, Saquon Barkley. I mean, that's easy picking.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, yeah, Leonard Fournette is known as a scat back. He's one of those tiny third down guys you bring in and just great.

[Mike Wright]

Fluid pass catcher, fourth most targets at the running back position.

[Andy Holloway]

But here's. So here's a problem with that. This was part of what made him consistent, right? We're talking about what was the truth of this previous year and also what do we expect the truth of next year to be? Well, this previous year, part of the reason he was so consistent is that target volume. He had so few touchdowns for the yardage. He had a huge positive regression type of swing you could predict because you look at his utilization, his carries, his yardage, he should have had far more touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

He had a touchdown on every 88 carries.

[Andy Holloway]

That's ridiculous, especially for a guy of Leonard Fournette's caliber. But with those touchdowns lacking, the passing work made up for it. So that made him a little bit more consistent. But going forward, you say, well, what is the truth? Is he now a high volume passing back? Obviously the team, the quarterbacks there, they're willing and able to do that. But I think one of the most interesting things for me going into next year is what do they do with the running back position, right? As in they lost TJ Yelden, they didn't really replace him. With anyone. They brought in a rookie who basically had the same profile as Leonard Fournette as a big bodied, you know, goal line type of not pass catching guy. But if they go out and sign someone, I think that that would be good for them as a team and that would make me not project another hundred reception targets next year.

[Jason Moore]

Well, they were 6 and 10. They didn't succeed. So you have to look at the situation and say, are you going to go back to the same. Well, was it Leonard Fernett's fault? No. I mean he had a good season. He was one of the only consistent pieces of that team. But you're right, you're staring at the draft and at the same time you have to look at the lesson learned from Leonard Fournette that we could apply to other situations. When the draft was over, when free agency was over, you looked at Jacksonville and we all looked at each other and said, well, there ain't, there's no one there.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

So, you know, in absence of these other options meant a necessity to involve Fournette in the passing game. They didn't trust any. It was so comforting when you're a Fournette owner to have third down come along, two minute drill come along. And he's not off the field like he was in years past with TJ Yelden. So he was very consistent this year.

[Mike Wright]

Yep. And like Jason said though, it was the touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns. And what was interesting when I was looking at his numbers, he's. He was tied for 10th for the most carries inside of the 10. I mean, that's excellent. I want my running basket and carries inside the 10. But of those of those top 10, he was the only running back who did not have double digit carries inside the five. So they clearly there was an offensive problem once they got inside the red zone.

[Jason Moore]

He had a really hard time getting from the 10 to the 5. Yes, that was one of the big problems in Jacksonville and maybe that was Fournette's fault.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, more receptions this season than he had in 2016, 17 and 18 combined. That's incredible. That is an incredible stat. All right, moving on. Saquon Barkley. Oh, look at those first six weeks of Saquon and you weren't happy with where you took him. I mean, he was the number one pick probably in more drafts than anybody else. He ended up at number 10 on the year, dealt with injury, obviously the, the ankle sprain and ended up consistency rank of number 14. And a reminder, we don't count missed games Inconsistency. So we just took the games. He was active when you would have started him, and instead of getting the number one, you got number 14 in consistency.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. When I was building the consistency stuff out, you expect a guy like Saquon to remind you, Allah devonte Adams, when you get to the consistency stuff, you go, oh, he was a lot better than we remember because he was injured and he was gone. And it's like, oh, yeah, devonte Adams, really bad season due to injury, but he was still consistency ranked number four. Whereas here with Saquon, just in the games where he was playing, he was 14th. He was super disappointing. And, you know, the truth of that is he got injured with a high ankle sprain, and when he came back, he said he didn't feel himself for a while. He certainly didn't look himself.

[Mike Wright]

For seven games, he was averaging 17 carries for 53 rushing yards. Wow. When he came back from the ankle injury.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Your fantasy team didn't feel like itself.

[Mike Wright]

And then the final three games, explosion average, 21 carries for 131 yards. I mean, granted, the matchups were there for Saquon Barkley. You could see that his playoff run was. Should be sensational. It's a. It's a really difficult season for me to gauge for. For Saquon because he was great at the beginning. He looked like, oh, I'm getting Saquon. You had the injury. You had a quarterback change. What was unfortunate was his targets, those drops pretty significantly. You know, he had 121 his rookie.

[Jason Moore]

Year, 73 last year.

[Mike Wright]

But he was pacing out. But he was pacing out for 90 targets on the year. So a drop of 30 targets, that's pretty substantial. And so I looked at with Eli versus Daniel Jones. I mean, he averages two fewer targets a game when it's not Eli Manning.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Jones driving the ball down the field.

[Mike Wright]

A little bit more. Is that a trend that will continue? That remains to be seen. Eileen, on the side of. Yeah, I think. I think Daniel Jones won't check it down as much as Eli, but you saw.

[Jason Moore]

I'm very thankful for the end of the year for Saquon.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Because I think it put him in the right place in terms of going into next year. Like, there are very few running backs I would even consider above Saquon Barkley. Like, I'm taking Saquon Barkley over Dalvin Cook next year.

[Mike Wright]

So you. He's pretty locked in at number two.

[Jason Moore]

He's pretty much number two. If you want to make the Zeke argument, I'm fine with that.

[Andy Holloway]

But you know, Henry, in the argument there. No, because he's not a pass catcher.

[Jason Moore]

Because he's not a pass catcher.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Jason Moore]

I want you know, Saquon was injured. He showed the ramifications of that breakaway play problems from injury through those before the last three games. But this is sake one. He's a centerpiece to the team top draft pick. I, you know, to me, I'm not very concerned.

[Andy Holloway]

I do worry about the targets. I expect them to go down from where his rookie season was. I was talking about that last year with Daniel Jones coming in. That's the worry is they're not going to go up from where he was. They can only go down or stay the same. And so going forward, I think you're projecting him for around 100 targets instead of the 120 he had his rookie season. I'll take it. Yeah. I mean, look, if we're talking about that as a negative.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, 100 targets, still had 52 receptions on a short season for 438 yards through the air. So.

[Mike Wright]

And if you, if you want to spot for positive regression, eight carries inside the five, one touchdown from inside the five. I mean that's pretty rare.

[Jason Moore]

Is he, is he locked in your top three or is he, are you dancing with where he's at?

[Mike Wright]

I wouldn't probably be a top three. I think you can lock him in there. But I'm, I think Dalvin Cook is up there for me. I know I was playing the devil advocate against Dalvin Cook, but right now I think Dalvin belongs up there as well.

[Jason Moore]

All right, before we move on to the next running back, we want to thank today's sponsors for supporting the show. And I want to talk to you about Bank United. Bank United wants you to go for more. Here's what you can do. You can enter for a chance to win $54,000 if a team goes for and completes a two point conversion during the big game on February 2nd. All you have to do to be eligible is follow BankUnited on Twitter and tweet ankunited. Your answer to what you would do with $54,000 using the hashtag GoForMore54. Everyone has a chance to win. The more tweets you send, the more chances you have to win. And if a team completes a two point conversion, you could win again. Follow BankUnited on Twitter and tweet BankUnited your answer to what you would do with $54,000 using that's a lot of Sammy Watkins helmets that you could buy. For official rules, visit www.goformore54.com that's go four more. And the number54.com BankUnited in a member FDIC. Neither Twitter nor the NFL entities have offered, administered, endorsed, or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way. That's gophermore54.com and we want to thank.

[Andy Holloway]

Sonos not only for being a longtime supporter of this show, but for making the best today's level speaker.

[Mike Wright]

Can you imagine listening to this podcast on a Sonos?

[Andy Holloway]

I've done it. I don't have to imagine, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

It's gotta be sensational.

[Andy Holloway]

It is phenomenal. My voice sounds perfect.

[Jason Moore]

No, especially when you sing, Mike.

[Andy Holloway]

The truth is. Me, me, me, me, me, me. Sonos is what, like, you know how there's all these products that they're designed by, like, today's standards, Right? You know what I mean? It's like we talk about, like, oh, Apple came out and they made the iPhone. They just took phones to where they. That's what I feel like Sonos speakers are. They've got the true. Like, you know, they adjust themselves. You can have them set up like some professionals coming into your house and getting all the sound set up perfect. You can pull out your phone and adjust the volume of the TV that you're watching. All of their devices pair together and work really nicely. So you just keep adding a speaker here or there, upstairs, downstairs. It's just phenomenal. I've never had anybody that we've recommended Sonos before be like, I'm disappointed because they're never disappointed. They're awesome. So check them out. Make sure you get Sonos all across your house. Go to sonos.com to learn more. That's sonos s o n o s dot com.

[Jason Moore]

All right, number 11. Number 11. My guy, Chris Carson, ended up with a consistency rank of number 17. Oh. He fumbled and bumbled his way through a pretty impressive season. 278 carries. Love it. 1230 yards on the ground, seven touchdowns, 37 receptions on 47 targets. When you look back at the season for Chris Carson, what are your takeaways? I mean, this was a pretty consistent player from weeks one through 10. He was the running back. 7.

[Mike Wright]

What do you think the story for Chris Carson, for me, is? Number one. The dude's a beast. He is. He fits perfectly in the system that Seattle wants to run. But the big story was the fumbling. He had a stretch the first three games. He fumbled in each of them. Pete Carroll seemed to weather that storm and say, well, he hasn't been a Fumber before.

[Andy Holloway]

Where? We're going to Fumber.

[Jason Moore]

I heard Fumber as well.

[Andy Holloway]

He hasn't been a Fumber, which is true.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, he has not been a Fumber.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true to this day.

[Mike Wright]

One time I caught a Fumber.

[Jason Moore]

Huh?

[Mike Wright]

I don't recommend it, but he was. He wasn't a Fumbler.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

A Fumber.

[Jason Moore]

It's just a creature.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

It's a Pokemon.

[Mike Wright]

That's what it sounded like. You never leveled up your Fumber.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

To a Fumbler. I mean, you. The second stage of the Fumber is a Fumbler, of course. So he was a Fumber last year.

[Mike Wright]

So he fumbled the first three games. They moved on. But then he had a stretch, another three game run of four combined fumbles. And after that happened, that's when Rashad Penny got his shot. And Rashad Penny came in, had two monster games, was establishing himself as a huge part of this offense. Unfortunately went down with a very severe injury. So that's the question for me on Chris Carson. Let's say Rashad Penny still isn't ready to start the season because with what happened to his knee, there's a very high chance that, that that happens. Will they bring someone else in? What type of resources do they use to bring in another backup? Because they're gonna have to bring somebody and you can't move forward with another season of it's Chris Carson. Then we have guys, we have JD McKissick, we have guys just getting hurt behind him. You have to bring. Yeah, that. I couldn't remember his name. Pro size. What level do they bring in behind Chris Carson and does Carson fumble again?

[Jason Moore]

Here's what I know. I know that even if Rashad Penny's healthy, they're not going to look at a player coming off of that severe of an injury and say, well, this is your backfield, so Carson should have a role there. If he's, if he's back with the team, which he should be. He avoided surgery with the hip injury. And so I doubt we go into next season projecting very differently a season for Chris Carson than we did this past one.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's just a matter of if they make a splash and free agency or in the draft and get a running back that could possibly take over as the starter. This is a contract year for Chris Carson.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. There's not a lot of money committed his direction.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, there's. He's. Yeah, he's not even a million dollars.

[Mike Wright]

I just think that we'll see what happens with his adp because he could be a very risky pick.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, this last year, the truth about Chris Carson is that he was great. He had obviously the injury towards the end and the fumbling in the beginning, but if you look at the middle stretch of games, they talked about getting him more involved in the passing game and he was 15th most routes run at running back.

[Mike Wright]

So had that sweet double catch touchdown.

[Jason Moore]

He had seven separate weeks inside the top 10 on weekly finish.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean he was a solid player. Just a tough beginning, tough into the season. That's kind of what ruined his consistency going forward next year. If the, if the depth chart looks like it looks now, I'll be all in on Chris Carson.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

If the fumbling is so, so annoying. It's so frustrating because it does, it betrays, you know, this was not a player making the wrong cut or the wrong read or dropping passes or doing something wrong in the pass protection. It was just like, here you are with this one part of your game that is stealing the ability for fantasy owners to stay confident in you. So it was a good, not great year for Carson. Here's where the truth really comes out. Number 12, Alvin Camara. He was actually number six overall in fantasy consistency at the running back position. I think that's insightful. I think that's kind of not how it felt. I think for a lot of people, maybe those week 16, 17 weeks that Camara had really nice numbers on didn't matter for you at all because you didn't make the playoffs because you didn't get what you thought you were getting out of Alvin Camara. We looked at all our projections. Obviously they fell short by a significant margin. We knew the touchdown regression was potentially coming, but you know, it was just an up and down year for Alvin Camaro. But the truth is he was still one of the best fantasy running backs for your roster.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And you know, the pendulum swung too far, you know, in the, in the touchdown regression. And so, you know, you expect, look, he's assuming Drew Brees is back. He's still going to be a phenomenal asset. That was very good this year, just disappointing because of injury and somewhat similar to Saquon. He had an injury where he was dealing with it. Once he was back for a while you weren't getting those big high upside games that you, that you want to get. But I mean, if you look at both Saquon and Camara, they missed games and they both had, you know, a similar injury and struggled through that, Camaro was better as far as just being more consistent. Not having. I mean, you brought up that line of saquon's run of seven games where he was getting 17 rushing attempts and like 50 yards. Yards a game. That's. Camara was still solid. And I think that the touchdowns go back up. So I'm, you know, I think Camara is someone that you've got to wash away this season. Similar to Devonte Adams. And don't just say, oh, he took a step down and that's the direction he's trending. We're going to lower him out of the tier he was in. I keep him in the tier that he was.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Draft.

[Mike Wright]

I still have him as a top tier running back. His rushing yards were almost exactly the same.

[Andy Holloway]

Wait, you can't say top tier anymore because that's a tier. Oh, is that unto itself?

[Mike Wright]

Well, I know what you're saying. A tier.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Because Christian McCaffrey, as we know, is in the S tier.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, there you go. A tier. S tier. Got it.

[Mike Wright]

I know it doesn't make sense, but this is where we are. So his rushing yards per game, almost identical. His yards per reception. Struggling over here. Per reception. They dropped a little bit.

[Jason Moore]

Adam Richefter. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

But I got you.

[Mike Wright]

He was actually pacing higher in total receptions. The big thing was the touchdowns. In 2018, Camara had 13 carries inside the five that turned into eight touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

That's good.

[Mike Wright]

He was having excellent success up there last year. Only eight carries that turned into three touchdowns inside the fives. Like, where. Where was the problem with Camara? Right there. And I mean, you had Teddy Bridgewater for a good stretch of this season. The Saints just. Their offense wasn't as strong. But I'm. I'm still all in on Alvin Camara. If there's any type of dip where he's dropping to the back of the first, that will be nonsense.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he's actually a good trade for Target. Sure. The people who had him were really disappointed this year with the injuries. They might have missed the playoffs. They might think poorly of him. But, you know, if you can get him cheaper than, you know, the tier. He was drafted this year, which, based on what he did this year, I think you can. I wouldn't hate that.

[Mike Wright]

So for, like, are you speaking for Dynasty?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

So you still only 24 years old?

[Mike Wright]

Sure. But he'll be in a contract year. I'm pretty confident that this is Drew Brees last year. Now, that's just projection and speculation, but Breeze has Signed through this year. Are you that comfortable paying up? Because there might be a slight dip, I guess in dynasty price, but you're still going to pay for Alvin Camara. Are you confident in him moving forward for the future years?

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, when Drew Brees is gone, that's going to, that's going to hurt every offensive player for the Saints. But how can you project Drew Brees future career decision? I don't know. So I'm just going to take talent right now.

[Jason Moore]

I would say the one kind of interesting development this year in New Orleans was the just everywhere involvement of Taysom Hill, especially around the goal line. Direct snaps, opportunities for him to get into the end zone. I wouldn't, you know, we can look very strictly at, okay, he regressed touchdown wise and he regressed too far. But part of why that regression happened was other priorities around the goal line. It wasn't just handing the ball to Alvin Camara. So depending on the involvement of Taysom Hill, that could affect, you know, the positive regression.

[Mike Wright]

Taysum needs a new contract.

[Jason Moore]

Does he? Yep. Interesting. He'll get it. All right. Number 13, Joe Mixon. His consistency rank was 22. Now does that betray the truth of Joe Mixon?

[Mike Wright]

Because I think it's fair.

[Jason Moore]

This is a player that before the week, 9 by 8 fantasy points per game, 54 total yards per game. After the buy 17.2 fantasy points per game, 124 total yards per game. You're talking about somebody that was had the fifth most carries in football. Number one in evaded tackles, passed the eye test on every play. He took the ball to me the entire season, even the bad games. He's a player that runs very hard. You know, I'm kind of in love with Joe Mixon.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

But look, from week eight on, he was dominant on a team that stunk.

[Andy Holloway]

So he was so bad in the beginning of the year. I don't know if we remember, people cut Joe Mixon. Yeah, Joe Mixon who was super highly drafted. I mean those first seven weeks he was so bad that it wasn't even just I know I can't start him anymore. It's I don't want him on the roster. And that obviously if you did that was a mistake. If you take away those first seven games when you say does the consistency score betray his season? It feels like it because you look at the second half, from week eight on, he would have been the consistency ranked number six. He was hyper consistent the rest of the year. Once the team realized we are going.

[Jason Moore]

For that number one right it doesn't really betray it because we're looking at the season in totality, but it shows you the potential for Joe Mixon. And I think he's going to be somebody that, you know in Zach Taylor's second season, likely with Joe Burrow behind center there. There's just a lot to like about what you got out of Joe Mixon over the back half of the year, because you saw all the potential on a team where, you know, he had five touchdowns on the year on the ground. Not heavy passing game involvement like we thought we would see because the office didn't have the ball a lot. The office didn't move the ball a lot. And still to put up all of those top 10 finishes over the back half of the year, I think there's a lot to be excited about. Personally, even though you were disappointed over the first six games, are you concerned.

[Mike Wright]

At all that he will slip, like in or not slip, sneak into the back of the second round? And is your confidence that high that you would draft him there?

[Jason Moore]

Am I concerned he'll. I'm. I would love it if he did that.

[Mike Wright]

You would take him in the second round.

[Jason Moore]

Joe Mixon. I would, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

I think Joe Mixon, he was in my top. My top 12 overall picks for next year. So for me, his value lies at the back of the first round for me.

[Mike Wright]

Oh.

[Jason Moore]

So I think Joe Mixon is a player. What's his ceiling?

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, the ceiling would be definitely a top 10 running back. If he gets involved in the passing game, you can talk about. There's room for the offensive line to improve. They can't get much worse than they were last year. Room for the team to improve. You can't get much worse than last place. So, yeah, I mean, you know, I think there's ways to go up. I'm not 100% sure that Joe Burrow coming in is an upgrade for him, though. You know, Joe Burrow might be great, but as a rookie coming in, have.

[Jason Moore]

You ever watched who filled in for Andy Dalton? I can't even remember his name anymore.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, my God. Finley. Was that. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Ryan Finley.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Oh, my word.

[Jason Moore]

And Andy Dalton, sure.

[Mike Wright]

But Dalton still played the majority of the season.

[Jason Moore]

Let's call it neutral. I mean, let's call it neutral. Second. Second season. Learning how to use the guy. Here's all I'm saying is you're going to be facing decisions in next year's draft about, boy, am I taking the Hopkins, the Thomas, you know, the Devonte Adams in the first round. I'M fine with Joe Mixon as my running back. With my running back one. I'm excited about Joe Mixon as my running back one. So I don't know if that makes me a Joe Mixon apologist or optimist, but I am both.

[Andy Holloway]

You believe, you believe the second half of the year is more indicative of how they'll utilize him going forward?

[Jason Moore]

Absolutely, absolutely. Yeah. I mean, it wasn't. Look, we, we didn't know at the time. I mean, but week one, you were, you were in Seattle. Okay, terrible week. Week two, you were facing San Francisco. We didn't know what their San Francisco defense was going to be. You faced Buffalo the next week, you faced Pittsburgh the next week. You played Baltimore in week six. So between new coach, new quarterback for part of the year and that offensive line, I'm making the excuses, I want to make the excuses for Joe Mixon because film tells me he's a top five talent in the NFL.

[Andy Holloway]

He's unbelievable, man.

[Mike Wright]

They just, they really started feeding him the ball.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Over that second half, they did be basically just averaging over 20 carries a game.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Number one innovated tackles equivalent to player profiler.

[Jason Moore]

I love you, Joe. All right, number 14, Todd Gurley, one of the more talked about players heading into the season. Number 14, finish wise consistency, ranked number 12. And guys, I have no idea what on earth you do with ty Gurley moving forward. 13% bus games, 73% good games, just 7% great games. That's hard to deal with as a Todd Gurley owner. And isn't it kind of the hardest thing to do in fantasy to adjust expectation on a player that used to be the number one and decide what you do with them and what they would be, you know, who would you rather have as your running back 1. Heading into next year? Based on today's rosters, would you rather have Joe Mixon or Todd Gurley? Ooh, you know that, that's a. Even with that nasty start to the season, Mixon outperformed Gurley in terms of total fantasy points.

[Andy Holloway]

So that's with Gurley getting 12 rushing touchdowns. I mean, that, that is an excellent number for a guy who, you know.

[Jason Moore]

857 yards on the ground.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that was the problem. The problem was it wasn't the touchdowns. It was a combination of. All of a sudden his passing work started to evaporate by comparison to the previous two years. And his efficiency in the running game was terrible. Obviously, the offensive line was horrific. You know, he has been one of the most, you know, one of the players that is the most determinate upon their offensive line I can ever remember. If you did it, think about another Jason Morris.

[Jason Moore]

Jeff climbs up.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure. When Jeff Fisher was there.

[Jason Moore]

And they were dependent. Is that the word you're looking for? Most dependent on their offensive line.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's go with that. Let's.

[Mike Wright]

I like the way that sounds, but.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, the change.

[Jason Moore]

Al Borland is laughing over here.

[Andy Holloway]

The change.

[Jason Moore]

That's what he meant, right, Al?

[Mike Wright]

Yes, I think so. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

The change when McVeigh came in, McVeigh got all the credit, but Andrew Whitworth came in and the offensive line changed from really bad to really good. Well, this last year the offensive line went from really good to really bad. And you know what if they go out and make a big splash in free agency.

[Mike Wright]

Go out and get to fix the line.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, to fix the line and they have a better offensive line. Do you. He got the work. He, you know.

[Jason Moore]

Well, he kind of got the work.

[Mike Wright]

And then the workload went down. That is for sure. In 2018, 11 of his 14 games, he was on the field for more than 80% of the snaps. Last year, only three times did he see that workload. Jason, you talked about the targets. They went way down. I have no idea what why Sean McVeigh decided to do this. Only 10% of their passes. Only 10% of the Rams passes.

[Jason Moore]

You have Tyler Higby, Mike, you don't ignore.

[Mike Wright]

Apparently this is because that dude turned into a beast. But here was the biggest eye opener for me. So Sean McVeigh's run with the Rams 2017, the Rams offense scored 478 points. 2018, they scored 527 points. Last year they scored 394 points and Todd Gurley still had 12 rushing touchdowns. Like it. It's going to be very difficult to be in on Todd Gurley, but if.

[Jason Moore]

They can fix some of the offense.

[Mike Wright]

If they can low key fix the offensive line, Todd Gurley may present himself as a draft value. I honestly have no gauge what the public is thinking about Todd Gurley moving forward into next year. But like my hunch is he could be of. He could be a value in the.

[Jason Moore]

Third of the fourth pop quiz. How many hundred yard rushing games did he have last year?

[Mike Wright]

I'm going with zero.

[Jason Moore]

That is correct.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I'm just thinking, I'm thinking through this and realizing that the truth is with Todd Gurley is his season was saved by touchdowns because.

[Mike Wright]

But that's who he like. That's also why he was so great.

[Andy Holloway]

No but if you told me, because there was so much Todd Gurley discussion coming into last year, the knee, Darrell is going down, the workload, we don't know. But if you told me he gets 14 touchdowns, I would say draft him as a top five running back. He's a top five. He got 14 touchdowns and he didn't finish as an RB1.

[Jason Moore]

And what's Darrell Henderson going to be next year? Are they going to use him?

[Mike Wright]

But of the running backs with double digit rushing touchdowns, they all finish top eight, except for Todd Gurley.

[Jason Moore]

If you took the chance on Gurley over this past year, were you happy?

[Mike Wright]

I think.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

But where was he? He was a second round pick, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. He fell. He fell pretty, pretty heftily. I think you were. Okay.

[Mike Wright]

I like that one a lot. Heftily? Is that even a word?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, with the woozles.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Heftilys and woozles.

[Mike Wright]

Very confoozles. Heftily's in the heffalumps.

[Jason Moore]

That's where I went.

[Mike Wright]

Nice.

[Jason Moore]

He fell heftily. You were saying?

[Andy Holloway]

I'm on a roll. Let's keep going.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, my goodness. All right. Miles Sanders is number 15. Miles Sanders was 15 in fantasy finish. He was a consistency rank of 29. He's a rookie. Was a rookie. And I'm going to contrast him with another one that kind of jumps out. And so Miles Sanders finished there. But if you go down. Hold on, let me scroll. Devin singletary finished at 31 with a consistency rank of 27. So they actually had very similar consistency rankings. How do you look at these numbers? You look at Miles Sanders and, you know, smaller sample sizes is how I look at these rookies.

[Mike Wright]

It's difficult to put those two guys together because I, I feel like the path forward for Devon Singletary is clear. Like Singletary is the guy. Now, I can't project that Frank Gore will be on that team. Devin Singletary is the primary running back for that team. That's how they used him towards the end of the season. Meanwhile, Miles Sanders kind of de factoed into that job. And what I didn't remember is Miles Sanders was basically given the starter job at the beginning of the year. He was, he was getting more carries than Jordan Howard. He was just super ineffective. He was averaging 11 carries for 35 yards in the first three games. Jordan Howard came in, took the job. Jordan Howard looked great, was a touchdown beast. And then during those games, Miles Sanders was down to seven carries for 38 yards. Howard gets hurt, Miles Sanders gets the job back and is actually Pretty good. But he's really, really getting it done in the passing game.

[Jason Moore]

He was one of only six rookies ever with 800 rushing yards, 50 receptions and 500 receiving yards. Just 22 years old. What's difficult for me is you look at those two players and you said the pathway is clear for Devin Singletary. It's. It's ironic because we break these games down, their performances down into great games, good games, bus games. Devin Singletary never had a game that qualified as great. Miles Sanders had two of those. He had five good games. He had five times that he finished inside the top 10 on the week. So you almost saw, even if he fell more into the opportunity, you saw more ceiling from Miles Sanders over the course of those games than you saw.

[Mike Wright]

From Singletary in the air. Not in there, but through the air. Yeah, Miles Sanders was getting it done. There's only three running backs last year that had 40 or more targets and a yards per reception over 10. Miles Sanders, Austin Eckler, David Johnson, amazingly, David Johnson.

[Andy Holloway]

But look, Miles Sanders did great with the opportunity he was given towards the end of the year. I think he's talented. The real question, it's all about opportunity. Because by the end of the year, not only was Jordan Howard injured, so he gets more rushing work, but every single receiving option on the team was injured. No Alshon, no D Jacks, no Nelson Aguilar. I mean, they started using Boston Scott and Miles Sanders. So going forward next year, I don't believe Doug Peterson wants Miles Sanders to be the guy. I think he showed.

[Mike Wright]

It's tough because they took him in the second round.

[Jason Moore]

No, I know part. 53rd pick overall.

[Andy Holloway]

I think that they know he's a talented guy and he will be involved. And I think the Eagles offense, to compare it to the Bills and Devin Singletary is better. So the ceiling is there with Miles Sanders because I think more points are scored for the Eagles next year than for the Buffalo Bills.

[Jason Moore]

If you could pick a RB2 Sanders.

[Andy Holloway]

Or singletary today, I would take Singletary today because I believe Singletary will get the opportunity. And I don't know that Miles Sanders will get enough opportunity in the, you know, in just touches.

[Mike Wright]

PPR might change that for me. If it's ppr, I think I might go Miles.

[Jason Moore]

It's so hard because, I mean, the targets were there for Singletary or getting there. And the reality is, is if Gore's gone, it's easy to say now, Gore's probably not back. They'll bring.

[Mike Wright]

He's infinite.

[Jason Moore]

They're going to bring somebody else in. I mean, it's not just going to be Singletary.

[Andy Holloway]

I listened to Gore after the season and he was asked the question, you.

[Jason Moore]

Know, I'm just 23 years old.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, I'll be back. Why is he.

[Mike Wright]

Charles?

[Jason Moore]

I don't know.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you want.

[Jason Moore]

Is that what.

[Andy Holloway]

That was terrible.

[Jason Moore]

Knucklehead.

[Andy Holloway]

Gore wants to play and he wants to play for the Bills and forever.

[Jason Moore]

He wants to play forever.

[Mike Wright]

I've heard that Carlos Hyde wants back on the Texans. Jason, but I. Gore is not under contract.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I know he's not. I would not be surprised at all if the Bills bring back Frank Gore. And if that happens, I think that's best case scenario for Devin Singletary.

[Jason Moore]

I would agree with that. It would be best for Singletary.

[Andy Holloway]

He already overtook Gore. Gore would be signing to be the bat.

[Mike Wright]

Been there, beat that until the playoffs.

[Andy Holloway]

There we.

[Mike Wright]

When you got an opportunity.

[Jason Moore]

I love that.

[Mike Wright]

Frank. Or the ball in the court.

[Jason Moore]

Only eight touches. But they were painful.

[Mike Wright]

They ruined the game.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's. Let's go here and you guys can pick out some names that you want to bring up beyond the top 15 here. You know, Kenyon Drake was 16 overall. 16 by consistency. That's impressive for a player that changed teams over the course of the year. I saw a very large Twitter poll where Gurley and Drake came up dead. A dead heat in dynasty drafts.

[Mike Wright]

So my hot stat for Kenyon Drake is more just about the Arizona running back. And I tweeted this out. I said, if you take the starting fan, the fantasy numbers from the starting running back for Arizona, you got 288 points. That's a running back. Three on the season. Yes, we got fooled. We got duped a few times of who would the starter be. Mostly that was on David Johnson, where you had the game where he came back that we thought he was healthy and Chase Edmonds was the guy and had a monster game. Chase Edmonds kind of fell off, got hurt. They trade for Kenyon Drake. You still think David Johnson's the starter because they just traded for Drake. But no, it was Kenyan. Drake was the dude for the rest of the season. So I am very interested.

[Andy Holloway]

But the point, the point you're making is that the Arizona Cardinals running back with Cliff Kingsbury is an extremely valuable role. If someone has that on lockdown because.

[Mike Wright]

They go with one guy, this isn't. This isn't an RBBC where by design. Right. And that was kind of the biggest rebuttal to the tweet was if you Add if you do that for a lot of teams, like yeah, but, but Arizona wanted to feature one guy more often than these other.

[Jason Moore]

Just happened to be three different players over the course of the year on individual weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

And that happens on teams that play fast.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

We talk about playing fast for the Cardinals and how many snaps they get in every game. But part of the only way you can do that is by keeping the same personnel on the field. You don't have time to slow the game down and make as many substitutions. They're just going, going, going. They need that skill set feature all round back. And so yeah, you know, Kenya Drake is interesting, but we don't have a clue where he plays football next year.

[Jason Moore]

Le'Veon Bell ended up at 17. Fantasy finish wise, he ended up at number 13 in consistency. Nice 0%. Great game. So he never had a 22 plus point game. He was just very middle of the road.

[Andy Holloway]

But only one bust. So he was.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean he's going to get 250 plus carries next year.

[Mike Wright]

If you took him in the first though. Or is it where you had he killed you.

[Jason Moore]

But now, but now he'll be adjusted now there'll be a settling of his position. And all I'm saying is next year, unless people buy in more than I think they will, I love the opportunity to potentially get 250 carries on the ground because he's making all the money in the world.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

At a better draft day value to be my running back too. That's all I'm saying. Because these weeks, you know, 11, 9, 10, 10, 10, 11, those are the kind of weeks that I'm really wanting from my RB2. It's just a matter of what are the new expectations for Lev Bell and you know, everything you feared came true this year in terms of taking a year off, joining a team with a bad offensive situation and head coach. And there we are, Josh Jacobs, number 18, but his consistency rank was number 10. This, you know, nowhere to go but up for Josh Jacobs, Right?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

He missed three games. According to Pro Football Focus, Josh Jacobs had the most. Most fist goodness. Most forced missed tackles. That's a mouthful, man.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we made it through.

[Andy Holloway]

Most forced missed tackles. Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Most forced missed tackles on rushing attacks. Most are missed tackles.

[Mike Wright]

Josh Jacobs was great.

[Jason Moore]

He had a heftily amount.

[Andy Holloway]

He was. He was so. No, Josh Jacobs was not great. Josh Jacobs was infuriating because. He was infuriating because.

[Jason Moore]

Why 27 targets, we went. Okay, okay, that's fair. That's on Gruden Jason And I went and looked at our projections for Josh Jacobs. We nailed it.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, we were like, oh man, we have the same carries and yards and touchdown. We were. And that.

[Jason Moore]

And then you look at the receptions and you go, we all thought he would be involved because he should be.

[Andy Holloway]

He's phenomenal.

[Mike Wright]

And you took him in the first.

[Andy Holloway]

Not only did you take him in the first, but he's got a skill set to be a passing downs guy. But when you have the chance to get Jalen Richard the ball, you got to take it.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, what.

[Jason Moore]

So there's the infuriating.

[Mike Wright]

That's the infuriating part.

[Andy Holloway]

That being said, going forward, I would project them to change that a little bit. I think they will get him more involved in the passing game. Is that just wishful thinking?

[Jason Moore]

No, it's not. They should. And he was struggling with injury on and off. Multiple different injuries on and off throughout the year. You wonder if that was kind of a very easy way to keep him off the field from getting too much work. Was just to say, we've got our third down team. You're not on it. You do what you can on first and second down. If a pass comes your way, it was not by design. And then you're not getting worn down over your rookie season. Maybe that's the philosophy.

[Mike Wright]

Richard is not under contract.

[Andy Holloway]

Think goodness.

[Jason Moore]

Not yet.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, not yet.

[Jason Moore]

Eight year deal brewing. Melvin Gordon at 23 consistency rank of number 19.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, real quick, before we leave Josh Jacobs, just remember how much James White is involved in the passing game. And that could be really helpful next year for Josh Jacobs.

[Mike Wright]

Are you reminding Gruden that?

[Andy Holloway]

I'm just saying with when they get their new quarterback who utilizes that check down guy.

[Mike Wright]

Hold on. Brady's playing for the Raiders now. If I call it, you're on your third team.

[Andy Holloway]

If I call it for every team, someday I'll be able to come back and say, see, stop clock. I told you. Tom Brady to Josh Jacobs over and over and over.

[Jason Moore]

Melvin Gordon, number 19 in consistency. Man. Okay, where does he end up next year? Raheem Mostert, 24 Overall, but eighth inconsistency. But that was all based on only the games in which you received double digit touches, which seems unfair.

[Andy Holloway]

That's super unfair.

[Jason Moore]

That doesn't seem like the definition that we've used throughout the previous three and a half shows.

[Mike Wright]

I just wanted to point out when he was the dude, he was great. But that's something that all fantasy players know. But you also know you can't guarantee he's going to be the guy on a week to week basis.

[Jason Moore]

They're not the Cardinals situation, they're the situation where even Mostert. Mostert was on fire to end the year. Then all of a sudden in one of the playoff games it was Tevin Coleman and then it was Mostert again. So that shows you kind of what can happen.

[Andy Holloway]

Mostert on the season was consistency rank RB31 if you look at his entirety, so that feels more accurate.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's just a player that nobody counted on until they could count on him. David Montgomery, this is a disappointing line. Finishes at 25, consistency of 38 and not at all what you hope for expected saw in the preseason they couldn't run the football. Jordan Howard was gone. Montgomery is supposed to come in and do it. I saw many elite plays for Montgomery, but a lot of inconsistency and an offense that didn't know how to use anybody in a coherent way. James Conner finished at 33 with a consistency rank of 20.

[Mike Wright]

I'm interested on your take of James Conner, like where you were. You were off of him in draft season. I really liked him and it's hard to gauge his season because he was so hurt. Number one, that's the biggest takeaway for James Connor. He was very fragile this year. He also was playing running back well. Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph were taking stats for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but six of his 10 games were either good or great. He had three great games. Three good games. So where. How are you, how are you evaluating James Conner moving into next year?

[Jason Moore]

Well, I, you know, you assume things are going to be better with Big Ben, but at the same time we haven't seen it sans Brown and Bell and Big Ben's getting older and Connors had some injury concerns. So I probably look at him right now through the same lens that I look like look at a Marlon Mack category. So I get RB2. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, when you knew Connor was in the lineup, you were starting James Conner.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

The problem became. Not knowing that the problem became. And then sometimes he was in the lineup and he was gone.

[Andy Holloway]

That was the problem. The problem was you knew he was going to be in the lineup, so he was in your lineup and you shouldn't because then he took himself out of the lineup because he was made of glass. I worry about James Conner next year just from what we saw at the end of this year, the amount of times that he got injured and even in the beginning of the year when he wasn't, you know, when he wasn't missing the games or taken out. He was just. He was following the Julio every five or six plays. The dude was injured. So I actually worry about that going into next year. If you told me he plays 16 solid games, I'm all in and I'm terrified. I'll probably pass him, you know, if he's deep in the second round, that could be a great value and I'll probably pass them by.

[Jason Moore]

Part of it's also what is the identity of the Pittsburgh Steelers moving forward. It seems to be more defensive minded. That's the pieces they invested in. So from a like total play count, total points scored, are we able to just resume what Big Ben had been doing before? One, they probably don't need to. And two, we were missing pieces that we didn't have before. And maybe this team, when they look at the fact that Connor was even out there four times in the last nine weeks, they might need to make arrangements to have more of an rbbc. So that's why I put him in the Mac tier. Mac, we look at the quarterback situation and some of the multiple running back.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I heard that Tom Brady.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, sorry.

[Mike Wright]

I have a source that I sit next to. He told me Brady is going there.

[Jason Moore]

Damian Williams was 35th, 28th. Inconsistency. When I watch the playoff games, I kind of laugh because you watch Damian Williams play running back and you watch Derek Henry play running back and they don't play the same position at all. Damian Williams cannot run the football. Damian Williams is a great football player when used in a certain way. So you know when you sit back at the end of the year, Mike, and you say, what was Damian Williams from what we hoped he would be?

[Mike Wright]

I know that there's disappointment, but there is massive disappointment. But what stinks for both Connor and Damian Williams? I was very in on them, but I can't just like sit back and say, okay, the process was completely flawed. It's a massive L that I took. I mean, you took an L in terms of their production, but Damian Williams still had several great games. He's crushing again for fantasy in the NFL playoffs. It's just that the value of the Kansas City running back is so great. But I honestly, I'm not exactly sure what to make of Damian Williams yet because it was. It looked like he had lost his job in the middle of the season. He was irrelevant. They were playing other guys ahead of him. And I guess that just. It didn't work out. So they. So he de factoed back into the job.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, this team needs a new running back on the roster. I think Andy Reid knows. I think the general manager knows it. They've done whatever they could do to get the best guy on the field right now. That's Damian Williams. It is. And so they're utilizing him in that way. And you're right, that role is valuable, but they know he's not good enough for what their aspirations are for the position. That's why he was benched.

[Jason Moore]

He's under contract for one more year.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Next year after the two year $5.1 million contract, they could use Cream Hunt.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, bring it back.

[Jason Moore]

It will never happen, but they could use it and then somebody. Before we close, you want me talk about Carry On. Carry on finished at number 53. Consistency rank of 23 and he technically made it back out on the field in week 16 and 17. But probably some adjusted expectations moving forward for Carry on after a couple of years dealing with injury.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, the injury is clear. And if you look at, if you look at the game he got injured and left in and the game that he came back on, if you take those out, he's the running back. 7 Inconsistency. When he was out there, he was okay for full games. Sure. He, you know, if we're just looking at his full games, he was still a quality running back. The issue now is is he going to get the opportunity going forward to ever get the workload that matters for fantasy? I don't think if I was the general manager and I am all about Carry On Johnson. I think he's as talented as Joe Mixon and any other high level running back out there. But there's no way that he, that I would give him that workload. I don't think he can handle it. I mean he was injured a little bit in college then he's been injured in the NFL. So I would make preparations, go sign someone else, go trade for someone else and have carry on just in a mix of RBBC which makes him less fantasy relevant.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Hope you enjoyed the Running Back Truth Part two episode. We want to thank Pristine Auction for sponsoring the show. A Saquon Barkley signed jersey Yesterday sold for $89.68 and that's a, that's a big time player right there. Saquon Barkley. Hundreds of daily auctions pristineauction.com use the code. This is important. Use the registration code ballers and you get a $10 credit towards your first sports memorabilia purchase. We're gonna do some very cool stuff with Pristine this year. Giveaways, some special offers. We're gonna be able to give you guys some gift cards for sports memorabilia. It's gonna be a lot of fun. So that'll do it for this Truth episode. Excited for next week guys? The big game is coming.

[Mike Wright]

The big game is this weekend. Go Pro Bowl. Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers and Foot Clan. Don't forget to upgrade your game day experience and enjoy. Brilliant sound with a Sonos system. Every speaker is designed from the inside out for incredibly detailed sound, deep bass and then fine tuned by Oscar and Grammy winning producers, mixers and artists. Getting started is easy. Just plug in your speaker, open the app, then connect all your favorite streaming services or TV. Go to sonos.com to learn more.