Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode Title: The TRUTH: Top Tier Fantasy QBs in 2019 + Super Bowl Buy/Sell
Release Date: January 28, 2020
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

1. Introduction and Reflections

The episode opens with a somber reflection on the tragic helicopter crash that claimed the life of basketball legend Kobe Bryant, his daughter, and others [00:28]. The hosts share their personal connections and emotions, discussing how Kobe's legacy impacted them beyond sports [03:01]. This heartfelt segment sets a respectful tone before transitioning back to fantasy football discussions.

2. Super Bowl Gear and Predictions

As Super Bowl Sunday approaches, the hosts delve into fan gear and team support dynamics. Jason Moore humorously mentions the abundance of Kansas City Chiefs gear compared to San Francisco 49ers merchandise in stores [04:30]. Andy Holloway highlights the contrasting styles of the two teams: Kansas City’s high-scoring, analytics-driven offense versus the 49ers’ traditional, defense-oriented approach [05:23].

Notable Quote:
Andy Holloway: “Do you want high scoring, fun, analytics-driven awesomeness or do you want old school, run the ball, play good defense?” [05:23]

3. Super Bowl Buy/Sell Predictions

The hosts engage in a Super Bowl-themed Buy/Sell segment, evaluating specific player performance predictions.

• Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 300 Passing Yards:
  Jason Moore opts to sell the bet, believing Mahomes will rely on clutch plays rather than overwhelming passing [10:16].
  Quote:
  Jason Moore: “I think he wins by being clutch, Mahomes, not necessarily by being overwhelm.” [10:16]

• Jimmy Garoppolo Over/Under 200 Passing Yards:
  Both Jason and Mike decide to buy, trusting Garoppolo's ability to perform against a strong Chiefs defense [11:16].
  Quote:
  Jason Moore: “I believe he will do it." [12:16]

• George Kittle Leading 49ers in Receiving Yards:
  All three hosts agree to buy, citing the 49ers’ defensive prowess and Kittle’s role [14:00].
  Quote:
  Andy Holloway: “I think Kittle will definitely lead.” [14:30]

4. News and Notes

The hosts briefly touch on notable NFL news:

• Eli Manning’s Retirement:
  A heated debate ensues over whether Eli Manning deserves Hall of Fame induction. While Mike Wright remains neutral, Andy Holloway criticizes Manning’s career, labeling him as an average quarterback despite his Super Bowl wins [15:03].
  Quote:
  Andy Holloway: “He was the 100% definition of an average NFL quarterback.” [16:26]

• Drew Brees and Philip Rivers:
  Discussions revolve around Brees’s potential Hall of Fame status and Philip Rivers’s release from the Chargers. Jason Moore defends Rivers, highlighting his statistics and quarterback quality despite lacking Super Bowl titles [18:10].
  Quote:
  Jason Moore: “Philip Rivers was a better quarterback than Eli Manning.” [18:38]

• Kareem Hunt’s Future:
  The conversation shifts to Kareem Hunt’s off-field issues and their impact on his NFL career, with the hosts expressing skepticism about his long-term prospects [20:22].
  Quote:
  Jason Moore: “You can't make him a foundational back.” [21:14]

5. The Truth: Top Tier Fantasy QBs in 2019

The core of the episode focuses on analyzing the performance and fantasy value of top quarterbacks from the 2019 NFL season.

a. QB Market Saturation and Streaming Strategy

Mike Wright highlights the oversaturation of top-tier quarterbacks, noting that in 2019, 40 different quarterbacks ranked among the top 12 in fantasy performance—exceeding the number of NFL teams [24:35]. This abundance underscores the viability of streaming quarterbacks based on weekly matchups rather than relying solely on a single elite quarterback.

Notable Insight:
Jason Moore emphasizes that with such a high number of quarterbacks performing well, fantasy managers can find value later in drafts by employing a streaming strategy.
Quote:
Jason Moore: “You can pivot if you need to. In 2019, quarterback scoring compared to 2018... 216 fewer fantasy points.” [26:50]

b. Detailed QB Analyses

1. Lamar Jackson

• Performance: Dominated with over 3,100 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, and significant rushing contributions [29:36].
• Consistency: Number one in consistency with 93% great weeks and only one bad week [30:08].
• Fantasy Impact: An outlier in fantasy football, providing a substantial competitive advantage.

Notable Quote:
Andy Holloway: “If you had him, you were probably a champion or you ended up near it.” [30:52]

2. Dak Prescott

• Performance: Finished third with over 4,700 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, and solid rushing stats [31:21].
• Consistency: 81% good weeks but struggled against top defenses [32:04].
• Fantasy Impact: A strong value pick at quarterback 17 overall, though fantasy respect remains a concern.

Notable Quote:
Jason Moore: “He was the quarterback 17 in average draft position, ends up with 30 touchdowns...” [32:43]

3. Russell Wilson

• Performance: Consistent QB with a high ceiling, though flagged for inconsistency due to reliance on game scripts [35:34].
• Consistency: 44% good games with a 31% bust rate [35:45].
• Fantasy Impact: While a top-tier quarterback, his inconsistency makes him a riskier pick for fantasy.

Notable Quote:
Jason Moore: “Russ is a great quarterback. Nobody doubts that. Russ is one of the best Quarterbacks in football.” [37:08]

4. Deshaun Watson

• Performance: Finished fourth with over 4,300 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, and significant rushing yards [40:25].
• Consistency: 60% good weeks with 47% great weeks, though impacted by games against strong defenses [41:24].
• Fantasy Impact: High upside with potential for even greater performance, making him a valuable pick despite some inconsistencies.

Notable Quote:
Jason Moore: “I think he will fall a little bit next year in the draft.” [42:59]

5. Jameis Winston

• Performance: Achieved over 5,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns but also threw 30 interceptions [43:20].
• Consistency: Highly volatile with the ability to score big but prone to costly turnovers [45:49].
• Fantasy Impact: Acts as a high-risk, high-reward option, capable of top-tier performances but with significant downsides.

Notable Quote:
Andy Holloway: “He can ruin a week. He’s not the most consistent.” [48:21]

6. Josh Allen

• Performance: Finished sixth with solid passing stats and improved rushing yards [48:56].
• Consistency: 73% good weeks but only 13% great weeks, limiting his overall fantasy reliability [49:16].
• Fantasy Impact: Reliable but lacks the high ceiling needed for consistent top-tier fantasy performances.

Notable Quote:
Jason Moore: “I think Allen's a top 10 quarterback next next year.” [51:19]

6. Conclusion and Upcoming Topics

The episode wraps up with the hosts teasing future discussions on prominent quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Kyler Murray, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers [53:00]. They emphasize the importance of staying informed through upcoming episodes to maximize fantasy football success.

Notable Quote:
Mike Wright: “Make sure you tune in to Thursday's episode...” [53:33]

Key Takeaways

• QB Market Saturation: With 40+ quarterbacks performing as top-tier fantasy options, managers have flexibility and can employ streaming strategies effectively.

• Value in Late Rounds: Many high-performing QBs can be found later in drafts, reducing the need to invest early picks in the position.

• Inconsistency vs. High Ceiling: Balancing consistency and the potential for high weekly scores is crucial when selecting quarterbacks.

• Impact of Defensive Matchups: Strong defenses, like those of the 49ers and Chiefs, significantly influence quarterback performance and, subsequently, fantasy outcomes.

• Personal Biases and Team Loyalties: Hosts acknowledge their own team loyalties but strive to provide objective fantasy football analysis.

Final Remarks

This episode of the Fantasy Footballers provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2019 quarterback landscape, blending statistical insights with strategic advice. Whether you're a seasoned fantasy manager or a newcomer, the discussions offer valuable perspectives to enhance your fantasy football strategy ahead of the 2020 season.