The TRUTH: Top Tier Fantasy RBs in 2019 - Fantasy Football Podcast

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary

Episode Title: The TRUTH: Top Tier Fantasy RBs in 2019
Release Date: January 21, 2020
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

---

Introduction and Championship Weekend Recap

The episode kicks off with the hosts reflecting on the recent Championship Weekend. They express mixed feelings about the outcomes, particularly highlighting the dominant performance of Patrick Mahomes for the Kansas City Chiefs against Jimmy Garoppolo’s subdued effort with the San Francisco 49ers.

• Kenyon Drake [00:27]: Discusses the Chiefs' and 49ers' performances, noting Garoppolo's limited contribution with only 77 passing yards on six completions.

• Andy Holloway [02:21]: Comments on Raheem Mostert's workload, pointing out the frustration when a player hyped for success underperforms.

---

Buy/Sell Segment: Hollywood Brown

In the Buy/Sell segment, the hosts debate whether Hollywood Brown should be considered a top 24 wide receiver for the upcoming fantasy season.

• Kenyon Drake [05:37]: Presents Brown’s statistics, noting his three-time top 12 finishes despite injury concerns and a limited role in the offense.

• Andy Holloway [06:19]: Emphasizes Brown’s potential as Baltimore’s primary receiver, projecting him as a high-risk top 24 option due to his injury history.

• Jason Moore [07:31]: Agrees that Brown deserves a high draft spot but cautions about his inconsistency and the variance in his game involvement.

Notable Quote:

• Andy Holloway [07:31]: “He came into the NFL already injured... he is electric.”

Conclusion: The hosts agree to buy Hollywood Brown with the caveat of his high-risk status.

---

News and Notes

The hosts share important news updates relevant to the fantasy football landscape.

• Award Recognition [09:46]: The Fantasy Footballers win the industry's best podcast award at the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association's winter conference.

• Larry Fitzgerald’s Retirement [11:20]: Announces Larry Fitzgerald’s return for a 17th season with the Arizona Cardinals, discussing his evolving role as a reliable pass-catching option rather than a high-yardage threat.

• Coaching Changes [12:15]: Covers Luke Kuechly’s unexpected retirement and subsequent coaching opportunities, along with other coaching shifts like Jason Garrett moving to the Giants as their offensive coordinator.

Notable Quote:

• Jason Moore [10:09]: “Super honored to win that. And it's a reflection on you guys, the listeners on where this show's come.”

---

Running Back Truth: Analyzing Top Fantasy RBs

The core segment of the episode delves into the consistency and performance of top-tier running backs from the 2019 season, evaluating their fantasy finishes and reliability.

1. Christian McCaffrey

• Kenyon Drake [16:57]: Praises McCaffrey’s extraordinary consistency and versatility, despite occasional underwhelming games.

• Andy Holloway [17:32]: Highlights McCaffrey's massive involvement in both rushing and receiving, emphasizing his status as a top-tier RB.

Notable Quote:

• Andy Holloway [17:32]: “His reception total was second in the NFL... two players in one roster spot.”

2. Aaron Jones

• Kenyon Drake [19:40]: Discusses Jones’ high touchdown rate but expresses concerns over his potential regression due to reliance on touchdowns for fantasy points.

• Jason Moore [23:13]: Compares Jones to Alvin Kamara, suggesting that high touchdown dependency can lead to fantasy disappointment.

Notable Quote:

• Jason Moore [23:13]: “That's why we don't seek out touchdowns.”

3. Derrick Henry

• Kenyon Drake [26:21]: Highlights Henry’s dominance and consistency, noting his high yardage and low injury risk.

• Andy Holloway [30:05]: Projects Henry to continue his dominant performance in the upcoming season.

Notable Quote:

• Andy Holloway [30:42]: “He's going to continue to be an outlier unless he shrinks.”

4. Ezekiel Elliott

• Kenyon Drake [32:57]: Reviews Elliott’s consistency, noting his reliable performance without extreme highs or lows.

• Andy Holloway [33:34]: Points out Elliott’s steady but not spectacular finishes, stressing his dependability over explosive potential.

Notable Quote:

• Kenyon Drake [33:38]: “He never busted. He never hurt your team.”

5. Dalvin Cook

• Andy Holloway [38:56]: Considers Cook a top contender for the number two pick, valuing his consistency and talent despite potential contract holdout concerns.

• Jason Moore [41:28]: Raises concerns about Cook’s contract negotiations and Minnesota’s cap space, potentially affecting his availability and role.

Notable Quote:

• Jason Moore [41:28]: “Dalvin Cook is heading into a contract year... but there's these things that give you pause.”

6. Austin Ekeler

• Kenyon Drake [43:15]: Analyzes Ekeler’s dual-threat capability with significant receptions, making him a versatile fantasy asset.

• Andy Holloway [44:02]: Emphasizes Ekeler's dependence on Philip Rivers for his receiving opportunities, which may affect his fantasy value if Rivers departs.

Notable Quote:

• Andy Holloway [44:02]: “If Philip Rivers is gone, I'm out on wherever Ekeler is drafted.”

7. Nick Chubb

• Kenyon Drake [47:37]: Commends Chubb for his strong performance despite Tennessee’s offensive struggles, maintaining a high draft valuation.

• Andy Holloway [49:26]: Affirms Chubb’s place in the top 12, despite uncertainties around teammate Kareem Hunt’s future.

Notable Quote:

• Kenyon Drake [49:47]: “He’s phenomenal.”

8. Mark Ingram

• Kenyon Drake [52:50]: Reviews Ingram’s reliable but unremarkable season, noting his consistent performance without explosive highlights.

• Jason Moore [55:03]: Predicts that Ingram’s receiving touchdowns are unlikely to repeat, keeping his fantasy value modest.

Notable Quote:

• Jason Moore [55:03]: “I just didn't see it coming.”

---

Conclusion and Upcoming Topics

The hosts wrap up the episode by teasing the next installment, which will delve deeper into other prominent running backs such as Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara. They also briefly discuss the potential impact of Philip Rivers' rumored move to Tampa Bay, adding an entertaining twist to their analysis.

Notable Quote:

• Kenyon Drake [57:26]: “We’re going to talk about Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley... a lot of big names to get into it.”

---

Final Thoughts

Throughout the episode, the hosts provide valuable insights into the consistency and fantasy viability of top-running backs from the 2019 season. They blend statistical analysis with personal opinions, offering listeners a comprehensive understanding of each player's strengths and potential risks for the upcoming fantasy football season.

Overall Quote Highlight:

• Andy Holloway [25:12]: “The truth is he was excellent for you this year in total fantasy points. He was very inconsistent... that’s dangerous.”

---

Note: This summary excludes advertisements and non-content segments to focus solely on the informative discussions and analyses presented by the Fantasy Footballers.

Transcript

[Kenyon Drake]

Hey, this is Kenyon Drake. You're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from pristineoption.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Kenyon Drake]

Welcome in. Excited to be back with you. Tuesday, January 21, the fantasy footballers Podcast. It's a running back truth episode. Andy, Mike and Jason, you find us on TwitterFFballers fresh off of championship weekend.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yes.

[Andy Holloway]

It's a good one. Half good. Half good?

[Kenyon Drake]

Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't say you'd call that good. I would say that it was not as good.

[Andy Holloway]

You're saying if it's half good, it's not good?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

A good championship weekend would be two amazing games.

[Jason Moore]

No, that would be amazing.

[Kenyon Drake]

I feel troubled.

[Andy Holloway]

That was easy.

[Kenyon Drake]

So Brooks is out of town. He's actually on vacation. We have Al Borland running the switches.

[Jason Moore]

And the dials, and it just was.

[Kenyon Drake]

Bad timing for Al in general. Isn't that right, Al?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's right.

[Kenyon Drake]

So we were on slack talking about the 49er game. Al's a humongous Packer fan and it was a rough weekend, but I felt like the games were a little merciful. Like I knew I could, you know, plan some stuff for the second half of the game last night. But here we are. Kansas City, San Francisco, Patrick Mahomes doing basically everything for the Chiefs. Jimmy Garoppolo doing basically Nothing for the 49ers. Although I'm always hesitant to criticize the Tannehill Garoppolo type of games because you do what's asked of you.

[Andy Holloway]

He didn't do anything wrong. He just.

[Kenyon Drake]

He just put up 77 yards passing right. On six completions.

[Andy Holloway]

It's. Yeah, it's one thing.

[Kenyon Drake]

It was like he played a quarter of a quarter of the game.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. It's one thing if he plays poorly. He just didn't play. I mean, that's. That's coach's decision is dnp.

[Kenyon Drake]

I believe that Emmanuel Sanders and Debo Samuel could have, like, ran out for their routes and just set up a little table and had a meal. Like they were unnecessary. 29 carries for Raheem Mostert. I was so surprised that when Tevin Coleman went out that it was just Mostert for the rest of the game.

[Jason Moore]

No Matt Breida.

[Kenyon Drake]

Yeah. In fact, I didn't say no Matt Breeder just now because I didn't want to sound stupid in case he was inactive. No, he was there. That's how not used he was.

[Jason Moore]

Is.

[Kenyon Drake]

I thought maybe he was just inactive for the game.

[Andy Holloway]

Somehow I thought maybe you forgot what his name was. Only Breeder because Matt Burrito.

[Kenyon Drake]

No, he was.

[Andy Holloway]

And also thanks a lot Mostert. Thanks for showing up for my Beat the Ballers two weeks ago when I picked you. It's just very frustrating watching a guy that you hype up and you say he's going to be great and then he's non existent.

[Kenyon Drake]

And then you try to take credit this week for your hype because even though he didn't do anything for you the other week, this is still the credit you want because how we cope, it's almost like no one knew Raheem Moser could do anything until now. When you said it.

[Andy Holloway]

When I said it first.

[Kenyon Drake]

You can find us on Apple Podcasts. Appreciate you subscribing reviewing the show. We're on Spotify, we're ad free on Stitcher Premium and obviously the YouTube channel. YouTube.com the fantasy footballers the miracle run for the Titans falls short 3524 Kansas City and 3720 the San Francisco game. Let's just get it out of the way right here, right now. Who's winning the Super Bowl?

[Jason Moore]

Kansas City.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I've got the Chiefs by six.

[Kenyon Drake]

I want the Chiefs to win.

[Jason Moore]

It's going to be tough.

[Kenyon Drake]

I think I'll just stick with my like before the playoffs began pick, which was San Francisco over the Chiefs. So they're a machine. San Francisco is a machine.

[Jason Moore]

They are. But like if they get Tyreek because like San Francisco, they have great secondary. Part of that is Richard Sherman has been absolutely outstanding this year recovering from a massive injury. Tyree Kill is not the type of wide receiver that Richard Sherman can guard. He mugs people at the line. He's a very physical dude, but as soon as Tyree Kill slips past him, I mean he'll be able to take him out of some a couple plays when he's lined up on him, you know, he'll jam him good, but there'll be plays that if he doesn't get a hand on him, Hill will just be gone.

[Kenyon Drake]

Two great head coaches really excited for the opportunity for Andy Reid to get the victory. You know, as a Cardinal fan, I can't root for the 49ers, but I do think they'll end up on top.

[Jason Moore]

There was some classic Andy Reid shenanigans going on at the end of that first half, man, where he got bailed out by Mahomes. Ridiculous. His run, his 20 yard run. But you're like, you have timeouts.

[Andy Holloway]

Andy Reid, what are you doing?

[Kenyon Drake]

Never heard of him. Never heard of him, apparently. All right, let's do some buy. Sell.

[Andy Holloway]

Buy or sell. Presented by Pristine Auction.

[Kenyon Drake]

All right, today's Buy. Sell. It's a simple question. Hollywood Brown, Marquis Brown, is he a top 24 wide receiver in 2020? Let me give you a lay of the land here. He finished the year this past year at wide receiver, 46. I don't really care about that at all. He missed some time, but he was 46 for 584, 7 on 71 targets. He finished as a top 12 wide receiver in fantasy three different times. By the way, that's the same amount as Stefan Diggs, Jarvis Landry, Tyler Lockett, Odell Beckham or more than Odell. Only had a 16.7% market share in the offense. What do you think?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So this, this is going to be interesting. I mean, his struggles this year. I loved Hollywood coming in. And now you've seen a Baltimore Ravens offense that has taken a major step forward because Lamar Jackson has taken that step forward as a passer. So he's the clear number one wide receiver for a top, you know, offensive team. So you usually would put those guys in the top 24. The issue here to me is injury concerns, right? He came into the NFL already injured. He missed games, he got banged up. He's a tiny little guy out there, but he is electric. And when I am, you know, stating these guys out and looking, I usually assume, unless there's an extreme case of someone who just has never in their career basically been able to play a season, I project health. And so I assume he will be inside my top 24. But he'll have a high risk rating. Right. Because we've talked about the list, Frank, and the type of injury that he's had before where the chance of re injury on the first surgery is, you know, it's like 20%, which is really high, even though it's still. It's still a minority. So he'll be a very high risk top 24 guy for me.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think top 24 is pretty easy for Hollywood Brownie. There are so many games where he wasn't even on the field for like 50% of the offensive snaps for Baltimore as he worked his way back from injury.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, it's because he's not a tight end, Mike. They only allow they play six tight end.

[Jason Moore]

How surprised will you be when their first round pick is a tight end? Yeah, seriously, we can't get it.

[Kenyon Drake]

Look, I like the math adds up. It's working for them. They had a Great season. More tight ends means more wins.

[Jason Moore]

I like the fact that even though it was, I mean, they lost the playoff game. His highest percentage of snaps was this last game. 11 targets over 100 yards. I know they're trying to catch up, of course, but see, like, I feel like a top 24 should be pretty easy for Brown.

[Kenyon Drake]

Yeah. I'm buying it as well. And the truth is, is he's built to be the kind of player that both finishes in the top 24 and possibly disappoints you because of consistency, because of big plays, because of, you know, piling up Stefan like a Stefan Diggs top 24 type season is. Yeah. I'll probably the template for what Marquis Hollywood Brown will do where some games, the running game, Lamar on the ground, you might not need Hollywood.

[Andy Holloway]

It's a good comp. And if you go back to our truth episodes of wide Receivers and you look at how Stefan Diggs, you know, he had a great finish into the year. He's a good fantasy wide receiver. But the truth is he hurt players as often as he helped him. So maybe that is a template saying be careful.

[Kenyon Drake]

I love what I saw on the field. You just want to see more of it on the field.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And you want to be able to see a target volume that allows for consistency in fantasy football. And you just brought it up. Right. If they're dominating certain games, he can just be unnecessary.

[Kenyon Drake]

Right, Right. That was by herself from Pristine Auction. Check him out. Pristine Auction.com use the code BALLERS. You get a $10 credit towards some sports memorabilia, autograph, sports gear. Let's get into some news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league.

[Kenyon Drake]

We did just get back from Las Vegas. We were at the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association's winter conference. We took some hardware back, including the industry's best podcast award, which I was pretty amazing.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Kenyon Drake]

And super honored to win that. And it's a reflection on you guys, the listeners on where this show's come, but it was pretty cool.

[Jason Moore]

And I'll jump in. Thank you so much everyone who voted for us for numbers of things, but for me personally, I got the fan vote for the fantasy analyst of the year and everyone was trying to get this award. If you saw Twitter, you saw everybody was pushing for it. So the fact that the Foot Clan overcame heavy, heavy hitters in the industry. Humbled as always and just really, really thank you for that.

[Andy Holloway]

Foot Clan's undefeated. Yes. I mean, you guys are amazing.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Kenyon Drake]

And gals in the news, we've got Larry Fitzgerald coming back in our big news, in our big news for a 17th season, this really is. Yeah, the amount of exclamation points on the end of the sentence has to do with us living in Arizona. But Larry's coming back for a 17th year. At the end of the day, he's going to help Kyler more than he helps your fantasy team anymore because he's probably a 600 receiving yard type of player at this point in his career. But having another reliable pass catching third down weapon, that's how I look at him now. So that's good for Kyler. As they piece together this wide receiving core.

[Andy Holloway]

I saw a great tweet from Pat Thorman. Just said it said something like, hey, Siri, set my. Set my reminders again to draft Larry Fitzgerald in August and trade him in October.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Kenyon Drake]

The season, it starts to disappear later on. He's got like two or three games.

[Andy Holloway]

Left in him, but when his fresh legs are there, he's still great.

[Kenyon Drake]

This was a huge surprise. A lot of news took place between last show and now Luke Keakley announced his retirement after eight seasons. Now we're getting blamed in a fantasy reaper type of way for this.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Who picked him?

[Andy Holloway]

I picked him because it's a phenomenal.

[Jason Moore]

So this is your fault.

[Kenyon Drake]

So we said, which we were asked, was it on the foot cast?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, we were asked.

[Kenyon Drake]

Or oh, it was the ama, was it?

[Andy Holloway]

Whatever.

[Kenyon Drake]

We were basically asked what current active NFL player, if you wanted him to be a coach, he'd have to leave playing and be a coach right now. And it was like Jason's like Luke Keakley.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Because he's going to be a great coach.

[Kenyon Drake]

So now he's open to the idea of coaching. Obviously retires at a younger age before he turns 30. Eight seasons, one of the best on the field ever. Huge blow to the defense in Carolina. They're in rebuilding mode. But, you know, maybe it's even more exhaustive now on both sides of the ball. The Jags, we talked about it. They fired John DeFilippo. Bears hired Bill Lazer as their offensive coordinator, Bengals offensive coordinator. And the Giants hired.

[Jason Moore]

And the Giants.

[Kenyon Drake]

The Giants hired Jason Garrett as offensive coordinator. So what? Let's try to. Let's just try to step back from the meme life of Jason Garrett clapping on the sideline, the fatigue when he was the primary offensive coordinator in Dallas, when he was calling the plays, they had some pretty nice fantasy finishes, top 10 finishes on that side of the ball. You wonder how much the Giants are making this move based on that or based on, you know, sticking it to the Cowboys in some capacity and. Yeah, brain drain.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, I think you can brain drain easier than making him your offensive coordinator. But, yeah, obviously this is. Nobody has more intimate knowledge on the roster of the Cowboys than Jason Garrett on planet Earth right now. And he goes in division to become the offensive coordinator. We'll see Cowboys at least twice a year. That's pretty cool.

[Kenyon Drake]

It's an interesting hire. He stays in division. It's gonna be weird seeing him on that sideline.

[Jason Moore]

He'll still be in blue.

[Kenyon Drake]

Yeah, he's just gonna save money on the shirts and have them just inside out. Inside out. You can still see the stitching of the cowboy of the star. Oh, that would be brutal.

[Andy Holloway]

And John D. Filippo, the aforementioned fired offensive coordinator from the Jaguars. I believe he went and is now the quarterback coach for the Bears. Right. Working with Mitch Trubisky.

[Jason Moore]

He likes the challenge.

[Andy Holloway]

Good luck.

[Kenyon Drake]

He's one of those guys who really likes a challenge. All right, we've got running back truth. We ready to jump into that? Yep, let's do it.

[Andy Holloway]

You want answers?

[Jason Moore]

I think I'm entitled.

[Andy Holloway]

You want answers?

[Kenyon Drake]

What, the truth?

[Andy Holloway]

You can't handle the truth.

[Kenyon Drake]

All right, we're diving into the running back position. Just finished our two wide receiver truth episodes. If you didn't catch them, go back and listen. They were last week's episodes of the show. But we're looking at running backs now. There's a really good article up on the website by Jeff Greenwood, the fantasy footballers dot com. It's a 25 running back statistics article from 2019 if you want to reflect a little bit more on the position. But just as a quick reminder, we're digging into the consistency of the running back position and we're looking at the fantasy finishes in terms of, you know, how many great games did a player have? And we define that as more than 22 fantasy points. How many good games where they went out and put up more than 10? And how many were bust games? There were fewer than seven fantasy points. They really hurt you on the week. And comparing their fantasy finish with the truth of their season. How consistent.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean that, you know, it doesn't matter if a guy finishes super great at a position but didn't help you win a championship or win enough games to get to the playoffs. Those things are things we need to analyze at this point in the season. And when it comes to running backs, the top end running backs, which we're talking about today, are the most consistent Category in fantasy football, obviously not necessarily based on the draft season, getting everything right or wrong, but now that you look okay from top to bottom, the best finishing running backs, these are the guys that just week in and week out got the job done. What is amazing and holds true for the umpteenth year in a row is when you compare ADP data with how running backs finished and you just look at the curve of where was value in the draft. It is so incredibly top heavy. Every year it held true. Again, the best running backs are taken earlier in the draft. That doesn't mean you're getting everything right. It's just the ones who pop were always taken early and, and that's compared to other positions.

[Kenyon Drake]

You're saying you're finding more consistency at running back at the top of the draft?

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. You look at rounds 10, 11 at wide receiver, there were some big names, tight end, quarterback, a lot of these guys went late. And when you talk about, you know, the top 24 running backs, very few of them, actually. The fantasy industry is just getting so, so much smarter on pegging the next running backs in line that, you know, we still obviously make mistakes, but invest early in running backs is the point.

[Kenyon Drake]

Yeah, I mean, you still had situations at the top of the year, and we'll talk about them. Saquon Mix in. That didn't help you early, but when you start at the top, you got to start with the MVP of fantasy football, Christian McCaffrey. Number one in fantasy finish, number one in consistency rank. We have consistency charts on the website. And when you look at this season for Christian McCaffrey, it is. It's just unbelievable because what a loser in week two.

[Jason Moore]

Am I right?

[Kenyon Drake]

Right. I mean, 70% of the time he's putting up not a just a good game, but a great game. A more than 22 fantasy point game, a top 10 finish type of game.

[Andy Holloway]

There were two weeks this season where he did not finish as a top 10 running back. That's impossible.

[Jason Moore]

And he did that with a, with backup quarterbacks. Just a really bad situation on the offense. Like, this was a, this was a ludicrous year for McCaffrey.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, look, he, he. His reception total was second in the NFL. Like I'm saying in wide receivers, you.

[Kenyon Drake]

Look at wide receivers, 116 receptions, 1,005 yards, four touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

That's absurd. You get two players in one roster spot. When you have Christian McCaffrey, 44% of.

[Kenyon Drake]

His total fantasy production came via the air. Only 18 wideouts in NFL history have that 116 catch total.

[Jason Moore]

Honestly, I think it's actually less because I'm looking at the list right now and there's a couple duplicates in here. Like Wes Welker did it a few times and Chris Carter has two seasons.

[Kenyon Drake]

So that's just total seasons.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Kenyon Drake]

So if you, if you cut down.

[Jason Moore]

18 wide receiver seasons at 116 or more.

[Kenyon Drake]

Yeah. I mean if you. Basically, if he stubbed his toe on the first play of all his road games and you only counted the home games, he's the running back. 11 on the year. He's still an RB1. So the only question out there that we have is if you don't take CMC at one on one next year, are you legally insane? Is that enough of a reason to be committed?

[Andy Holloway]

I can't fathom the rationale. Next year to get. So. Yeah, Saquon. Okay. Garrett's going to take over. He's worked with Zeke for so long. But what, I mean, new coach. New coach.

[Jason Moore]

I mean that's, that's the only murder.

[Andy Holloway]

Ja Rule coach of the team.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, yeah, the Fyre festival was a disaster. When he tried to run that.

[Andy Holloway]

There's going to be change and there's going to be narratives to try to have talking.

[Kenyon Drake]

There aren't though. There really aren't. Like I'm trying to have a discussion. I went through my brain, I went through to find a Saquon argument. There isn't one. Do I get a first round pick along with Saquon if I take him at one on one? Otherwise it's cmc.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it is.

[Kenyon Drake]

Now what's incredible here is where, I mean, we're already diving into some truth right out of the gate. Aaron Jones was the number two overall fantasy running back. Aaron Jones of the Packers, I think I read yesterday In a tweet, 23 touchdowns and 18 games played this year for Aaron Jones. Yeah, his consistency rank, however, 18 at the running back position. He busted, which is a lower. Fewer than seven fantasy points. 31% of the time, 69% of the time he was in, he had a good game and 38% of the time great games. Now, his great games were special. Week five, number one overall. Week eight number, number one overall. Week 14, number two overall. These were weeks where if you had Aaron Jones, you ended up on the winning side of the matchup.

[Andy Holloway]

And in addition to those high upside situations, if you were able to get to the playoffs with Aaron Jones, which a lot of people were not, he's certainly not the easiest to get there. But if you got there, he really helped you win the championship because weeks 14, 15, 16, he was two of those. He was a top five running back that week, had monster performances. But this is the issue, right? Did you get to the playoffs if you had him? Five bust games is not a small number. There's nobody else in the top 24 running backs who had five bus games.

[Jason Moore]

Wow. Really?

[Andy Holloway]

The highest number in the top 12 running backs was two. Two bust games. And then you've got him here with five games where he just destroyed your roster spot.

[Kenyon Drake]

I don't even. It sounds crazy because it shouldn't be ignored, but I don't even care about the bus games very much when talking about Aaron Jones for 2020. We all know the talent. We've seen the talent out there on the field. We've seen the success of the offense that they're running. 13 and 3. Matt LaFleur. There's some consistency going into next year in scheme and game plan. What I care about is the touchdown total and how that drove that number two finish and how regression is inevitable heading into next year. Which makes Aaron Jones the number one candidate that I have in terms of overdrafted, you know, the number one candidate to be drafted at a higher draft value than what he represents. Which means you could be really disappointed because he had 19 touchdowns in the regular season. And where does that go? Is that, does that go to get double digits? 12? Because that's beautiful if it's 12.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's what I was going to say. I mean imagine he gets 10 touchdowns. That's a really good number. Like that's a number that a running back is coming into the year going, I want double digit touchdowns this year. But now take nine touchdowns away and he was not very good for your fantasy roster.

[Jason Moore]

So he had a rushing touchdown on every 14.75 carries. Now for some context of the top 20 fantasy running backs, the person who was closest to him in that in like a small number of rushing attempts for every touchdown was Todd Gurley at 18.6. And like I was trying to do some comps of this thing and he. It's very reminiscent of Alvin camara from just two years ago where Alvin camara was scoring on every 13.85 rushing attempts. We all know what happened to Alva Camara, the touchdown regression. I mean it hit him too strong. Honestly I got. Camara will bounce back. But last year Camara every 34 carries turned into a touchdown.

[Kenyon Drake]

Like that's, that's what this past season.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, and that's what can happen. I mean you can go back a bigger amount of years, but Lashawn McCoy had that monster touchdown year 20 plus and it followed it up with just a handful of touchdowns. These are, these are why we don't.

[Kenyon Drake]

I still.

[Jason Moore]

We don't seek out touchdowns. There are guys, there are 100% guys that are more efficient. And I don't expect Aaron Jones number to drop from the, you know, the, the 15 carries to like what happened to Leonard Fournette this year. But I'm with Andy that I want to see what happens with that ADP because Aaron Jones, when, so when such a high percent of your fantasy total comes from 16 rushing touchdowns, that's, that's dangerous.

[Kenyon Drake]

Well, and you have to go down to the number eight overall running back before you get a carry total less than Aaron Jones. He had 236 carries. Now it was great to see him involved in the passing game.

[Jason Moore]

Number eight. Is that where Austin Eckler is?

[Kenyon Drake]

No, it's Mark Ingram but.

[Jason Moore]

Well, Eckler's got to be below him too.

[Kenyon Drake]

Did I miss on Eckler there?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Eckler only had over 32 K's. Sorry.

[Kenyon Drake]

Okay, so that's at 6. But I think Aaron Jones is a top 8 player for next year. Don't get me wrong, but I think he's going to be drafted, you know, inside the top four. Somebody shooting for that same type of total. You know, I don't want to take anything away from him. He was really, he was a big difference when it came to facing top running defenses and bottom running defenses too. He scored eight fewer fantasy points per game against top 16 dec's.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean the, the. So what is the truth about Aaron Jones? The truth is he was excellent for you this year in total fantasy points. He was very inconsistent and it came on the back of too many touchdowns for the low volume count to rely on it next year. So you've got a talented back coming into 2020 where he's not going to score as many touchdowns and you need to not draft him to repeat this performance even though he's very good.

[Jason Moore]

Before we move on to running back number three, I want to thank today's sponsor, Simply Safe Simplisafe. Home security is like getting commercial grade enterprise level security safe like cmc.

[Kenyon Drake]

Not like Aaron Jones.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly.

[Kenyon Drake]

Yeah, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

You get this for your own home. Think about the security Fortune 500 companies use. That's exactly the kind of security you're gonna get with Simplisafe. There's a break in Simplisafe uses real video evidence to give police an eyewitness account of the crime. And that means police will Dispatch up to 350% faster to your normal burglar alarm. Look, you got to protect from those. Those who burgle. Those who wear the mask, stay away. Look, they got entry, motion glass, break sensors, guards inside. Look, a guard inside. We use Simplisafe in our studio. It's been protecting us for years. We highly Recommend it. Visit simplisafe.comfootballers you'll get a free free shipping and a 60 day risk free trial. You got nothing to lose. Go now to simplisafe.comfootballers so they know that our show sent you that. Simplisafe.comfootballers all right.

[Kenyon Drake]

At number three, Derrick Henry. He was the fifth most consistent running back 47% of the time. He put up a great game. That's an impressive total. 80% good games, 13% bust. Pretty much a beast. 303 carries, 1540 yards, 16 touchdowns, no passing game involvement. Really? 18, 18 reception.

[Andy Holloway]

So weird.

[Kenyon Drake]

You would think it would just accidentally happen if you're on the field for that many snaps.

[Jason Moore]

Like you see him in the screen game. I mean, at least once or twice a year he rips off of 70 plus yards.

[Kenyon Drake]

They should up it.

[Andy Holloway]

Give him a couple more.

[Jason Moore]

Why not try more?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Kenyon Drake]

Because he's not in. Because on third down, Dion Lewis still was on the field. I mean, I saw this in the playoff game and I was like, come on, man. I said this about Mark Ingram and Justice Hill. It's like, I get it. I know why you're out there. I know you've got a role. I know that you've been in practice. That's why. Right? You're in practice and you've got, you got your third down formation and everybody goes out there and it's like Justice Hill has his role or Dion Lewis. But you throw a screen to Mark Ingram or Derek Henry, you're going to be a lot happier with the result more often than not. That being said, Here we go. 102.7 yards per game. That's a league leading total. This was just a fabulous year for Derek Henry. He's a free agent, an unrestricted free agent. He's not ready to talk about his salary yet and his upcoming contract, but we are. And it's hard for me to see him leaving Tennessee.

[Jason Moore]

And the truth for Derek Henry was he should be happy that Marcus Mariota got benched. Because those first six games he was fine. Like he was Solid. He was, he was performing.

[Kenyon Drake]

We wouldn't be talking about him right now in this show if that doesn't.

[Jason Moore]

Happen, but he was performing the way that he had been drafted. I mean, he was drafted basically as, you know, a running back too. And the first six weeks with Marcus Mariota, he was the running back 14 at. With 14.1 points per game. He had two great finishes, but then the other ones, you know, low end running back too. He was averaging 19 carries for 69 rushing yards per game. Marcus Mariota gets benched, Ryan Tannehill comes in. This was the number that was the most insane to me with Mariota, 19 for 69 with Tannehill, 21 carries a game. So just two, two more carries a game. 125 rushing yards per game. Now that's bloated by some monster performances, but those monster performances also happen. It was just, it was such a transition for the Tennessee Titans offense to put Ryan Tanhill in there at quarterback and it turned into massive, massive fantasy production. Just an increase of numbers across the board. Snaps per game, rushing yards, fantasy points per game. It was a really big deal for him.

[Kenyon Drake]

I think that's, I mean, that's what winning does, right? Yes, you win, you put a quarterback in, you're more competitive, you start winning ball games. AJ Brown's ascent, winning game scripts plus Derrick Henry equals happy fantasy owner.

[Jason Moore]

Well, he was, he was only in, in those first six weeks, he was only in on about 58% of the offensive snaps. That number jumps up to 68%.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, and that's because at the end of those games, like Andy said, they were winning. And so if this is a team you project to be winning next year, assuming he is back with the Titans, then he should repeat and there's going to be a lot of conversation about regression. With Derek Henry, the touchdown numbers being bloated, the he had 16.

[Jason Moore]

Right. Same as Aaron Jones on the ground.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not sure that is correct.

[Kenyon Drake]

16.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, the craziest stat that I've seen is their red zone efficiency. When they got in the red zone, they scored a touchdown pretty much every single time. No field goals.

[Kenyon Drake]

Did you see that in the, in the game yet over the weekend? Yeah, the fact that their field goal had. They hadn't kicked a field goal in 49 days.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, when you get in the red zone, you score a touchdown every time. So that's not going, you know, you're going to hear a lot of conversations about what's going to stop him from repeating it. And I think that Derek Henry is just an outlier human being.

[Kenyon Drake]

Yeah. It's like March on Lynch's touchdown potential when he was at his peak. You didn't come into the year saying, you know, regression to under 10, I mean, 15, 12 to 15 touchdowns in the same role. Seems really reasonable for Derek Henry.

[Andy Holloway]

He is. He has taken over the lead dog of the team. He is the center of the offense. And next year I'll be projecting him to. To be what he was this year, which is a dominant running back on the ground.

[Jason Moore]

As long as he's on the Titans.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure. Yes. Which I believe.

[Kenyon Drake]

Well, he might get Zeke money. He might get that type of cash.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Kenyon Drake]

So I still am going to side more often than not on the more balanced PPR element of a Zeke or a Dalvin Cook or a. Yeah, the 18 receptions, that.

[Jason Moore]

That sucks, man.

[Kenyon Drake]

But it does show you that even in today's NFL, you know, that that was a distraction from drafting Derek Henry. It's not like we came into the year thinking, oh, maybe he'll be involved in the passing game. We said he won't be, so that means he must be brought down a rung or two. And he said otherwise. I mean, when you finish at 3 overall, 5, inconsistency, you can still get it done without the passing work. If you're an outlier.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, exactly. You have to be an outlier. We're calling. We're calling it. He's an outlier. Yeah. As in he's going to continue to be an outlier unless he shrinks. Right. Yes.

[Kenyon Drake]

Don't leave him in the dryer too long.

[Jason Moore]

Or the man comes out of the robot and it's an alien.

[Kenyon Drake]

The overcoat comes down and all of a sudden you're like, wait a minute, it was Dion Lewis and friends. All right, number four, Ezekiel Elliott. It'll be interesting for us to reflect on Zeke's year. Number four, overall consistency of number three. You look at his fantasy finishes. He never finished outside the top 24 on the entire year. He never busted. 94% of the time, he was good. So that's 10 or above 31%. Great games, most of those happening over the back half of the year, especially weeks 11 through 15. Consistent at home, consistent on the road, consistent against good defenses, consistent against bad ones.

[Andy Holloway]

Zeke was so good that you're disappointed in him because he wasn't great.

[Kenyon Drake]

He felt he was just strangely vanilla.

[Andy Holloway]

He was so good and solid, but never gave you those. Especially in the beginning of the year. Right. Your first 10 weeks of the season. You want, you drafted a guy to be more like cmc, to be more like Saquon last year, more like Zeke of years past where you have these monster two, three touchdown games and 150 yards and you know, he's more Derek Henry.

[Kenyon Drake]

Four finishes inside the top, inside the top four on the week. Zeke never finished inside the top four.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, so I mean, sorry, he finished.

[Kenyon Drake]

At four but he never finished in the top three.

[Andy Holloway]

So I think that was the issue is you missed the giant big blow up games but he was so unbelievably consistent. You never, you never were let down by Zeke. He never hurt your team.

[Kenyon Drake]

And you know what his longest run of the year was?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't.

[Kenyon Drake]

You want to take a guess?

[Andy Holloway]

40.

[Kenyon Drake]

Mike. I know you already know. 33 yards.

[Jason Moore]

Wow.

[Kenyon Drake]

So that's a part of it too. Flashy plays and then the flashy top three fantasy finishes distorted what the truth was. The truth was Zeke was pretty much what you wanted to get. It just didn't come in the same fashion in the past. And it came on a reduced amount of passing game success.

[Jason Moore]

Targets dropped from 95 to 71. His attempts were actually slightly down per game. He still had the second most touches at the running back position. But what we did get was the, the positive regression for rushing touchdowns where he had that weird six. He had six rushing touchdowns two years ago and it was just like what, how was, how was a man gearing the ball 300 plus times getting six rushing touchdowns?

[Kenyon Drake]

Do you, I know we're going to break down all the coaching changes in a specific episode, but do you have any gut, initial concerns, worries, anything of that nature with McCarthy coming in? Or is this just a matter of. Look, we know what Zeke is. He's paid to be Zeke and $90 million later, he's the same guy.

[Jason Moore]

If it, honestly, if it weren't Jerry Jones at the top and it was Mike McCarthy coming in, I might at least have some concerns in the back of my head. But there's, there's no way that McCarthy came in talking to Jerry Jones and saying, well, I'm going to have this squeeze out the $90 million split backfield and Jones. No, I, I just paid that man. He will be the focal point of the offense.

[Kenyon Drake]

Yeah, I think that there's probably even a higher probability that the passing game involvement could ascend a little bit under McCarthy, but we'll see. Did you have any other thoughts on Zeke Jason before we move on to Dalvin Cook?

[Andy Holloway]

No. I guess the only curiosity I had in my brain. It's almost, it's crazy to think like, oh, the Zeke holdout. Wait, was that this year? Yes, that was this year where he came. He didn't miss any games.

[Jason Moore]

It was overshadowed by Melvin's, sure.

[Andy Holloway]

But I just, I feel like that was 12 years ago at this point. It's like, wait, that was this season where he came in late, so maybe that, you know, we talked about how he was really, he was more of his dominant self towards the end of the season. You know, those first six weeks were rougher for him. Again, he never busted, but he just wasn't dominant. Wonder if any of that had any kind of factoring in coming in without the training camp and without, you know.

[Kenyon Drake]

Yeah, it could have. Before we talk Dalvin, I'm going to pause because I've realized something about this show. It's very important that when you have the opportunity to talk about Philip Rivers that you take that opportunity because it's very entertaining to me.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm out of here.

[Kenyon Drake]

Jason Locanfora did tweet earlier today he's hearing a lot of buzz about Tampa as a potential landing spot for Philip Rivers. As reported move to Florida back in late November, he and the Chargers were likely headed to a parting of the ways. What do you think about this rumor, Jason?

[Jason Moore]

Are they doing a little flip floppy swippy Swapski here?

[Kenyon Drake]

Now how do you go from like the interception king to the other interception king? Why is that? The. That just seems like you cap your upside because of the age of Philip Rivers.

[Jason Moore]

I like the interceptions. I'd like the touchdown total to come down a little bit though.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, you want to get Rivers. Look, I would hate, hate, hate, hate, hate if this happened.

[Kenyon Drake]

Because if Philip Rivers from the charges, I'm like Jameis, let's go. Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Straight up, if he went to, if Philip Rivers went to Tampa, that would be sad. You would have to be in on Rivers fantasy value and I refuse to be.

[Kenyon Drake]

So remember that Nick Foles, Sam Bradford straight up trade from a few years back.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Kenyon Drake]

Yeah, maybe we'll get one of those little fill up for Winston in his final year. Let the Chargers worry about that contract. Not the case they'll draft somebody. But yeah, they should just bring back.

[Andy Holloway]

Jameis and have him allow him to have year two with Arians.

[Kenyon Drake]

Yes, they should look for listeners of the show, it brings me great joy to know that it's more likely we'll be talking about a playing football Philip Rivers next year than it is a retired and out of Jason's heart and mind, Philip Rivers. Because I want to see you experience Phillip all over again.

[Andy Holloway]

I think Philip Rivers would be an excellent commentator. I really do. I think he would be. He'd have fun. He'd be one of those guys. He's watching it. He's passionate.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

He's enjoying the game while you're enjoying the game. I want that. I want that for him. And I will be his friend again.

[Kenyon Drake]

Did you. Did you freak out because you just don't want, like, Chris Goddard and Mike Evans dependent on Philip Rivers?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't.

[Kenyon Drake]

I feel like that's why you. You sat back in your chair, like.

[Andy Holloway]

No. Yeah. Because I knew if. If he's in this system and he's got those receivers, you're going to have to draft him and play him.

[Kenyon Drake]

And it's the last thing you want to do.

[Andy Holloway]

You can't make me.

[Kenyon Drake]

Dalvin Cook at number five, finished at number five, was the number two most consistent running back in fantasy. Those first eight weeks, they were beautiful, especially. And where are you. Where are you at with Dalvin?

[Andy Holloway]

Dalvin, to me, is in the conversation for the number two pick next year. You see this where he's, you know, the number two most consistent running back because the. Our consistency score does not, you know, it takes out games missed because nobody's putting them in your lineup. So, you know, the games that he missed does not count against him here. This is when he was started and he was in your lineup. How'd he do? And the answer was awesome. Yes, he was fantastic. The only issue with Dalvin is injury, and that's it. You don't have a worry about his passing work. You don't have a worry about his goal line work after this year. You don't have a worry about his team's desire to utilize him or a coaching change or anything. He is excellent. Is just health. Is he able to withstand the workload that the Vikings want to give him? And I'm going to take my shot that he is, because I think that's an honest question.

[Kenyon Drake]

I think he pretty definitively showed that he could do that. I mean, when you play 14 weeks in the NFL and you hold up, I know the end of the year is going to distort it a little bit, but yeah, his shoulders just.

[Andy Holloway]

It felt like every game towards the end of the year, he exited the game late. Even after having good games, he'd have a great game and then break the shoulder again. So. But the issue is every single running back out there that's going to get the work. You can ask the honest question of can he handle it? Because this is no human should be put through this.

[Kenyon Drake]

Are you drafting Dalvin Cook? I mean this is fun to ask I guess. January 20th. Right. But right now, are you higher on Dalvin Cook than Aaron Jones?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I would much rather have Dalvin Cook than Aaron Jones.

[Kenyon Drake]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I will bring forth the devil's advocate.

[Kenyon Drake]

The devil advocate.

[Jason Moore]

The singular, the devil's advocate. Position number one. Dalvin Cook is heading into a contract year. We are now multiple years in a row where superstar running backs in their contract year say I'm not going to play until you pay me. Now I spoke with good, good friend of the show, Paul Charchian, fantasy legend. He's. He's based in Minnesota. His gut take on it was that Dalvin Cook wouldn't hold out. So I okay, I buy into that. But it's at least a concern. And when you talk about paying Dalvin Cook, Minnesota's got a problem. Yeah.

[Kenyon Drake]

It doesn't seem like something he wants. They want to do.

[Jason Moore]

So this. Well, the smallest amount of cat space currently heading into 2020 is actually the Pittsburgh Steelers. They have under a million dollars in cap space. That's because the vikings are nearly $5 million negative heading into 2020 with their cap. They have a massive problem.

[Kenyon Drake]

They also have a called Thielen and Diggs, isn't it?

[Jason Moore]

They also have a Cousins a very, very good backup running back that the team likes a lot in Alexander Madison who got more and more involved as the season went along. That would be my only my concerns with like Dalvin Cook should be a top five running back easy when you're watching him play. His talent levels are off the charts. He's making people look silly. He makes professional NFL defenders look like peons out there. But there are these, there are things, there are peripherals that are. It should at least give you pause.

[Kenyon Drake]

For concern right now and maybe that'll be the things people are weighing all offseason. I certainly while I appreciate the fact that they may like Alexander Madison to me on film, there was a pretty wide gap between these two. I doubt that over the course of next year. Look, part of winning that division is going to come down to Dalvin Cook. So I still side on the top five finish for Cook.

[Andy Holloway]

Well and let's also be pragmatic and realize that the limited cap space that the Vikings have is, you know, that's going to. The agent of Dalvin Cook knows, hey, what are you going to hold out for if they. If they can't do it right now. You could threaten, say, oh, well, maybe, but he probably won't because they can't do anything. So, yeah, I'm in on Dalvin Cook. I'm a believer, and I'm going to take the gamble on his health.

[Kenyon Drake]

All right, Mike, it's your time to sing. It's your time to dance. Number six overall, Austin Eckler. Consistency, rank of number four. He had 132 carries. Oh, but he had 92 receptions for 993 yards and eight touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

The old Danny Woodhead.

[Kenyon Drake]

I mean, that's pretty much. I mean, that's a threat to the Christian McCaffrey passing game line there. He just didn't do as much on the ground. But you're talking about a number six overall finish. An incredible first five weeks for fantasy owners that took the chance on him and the Melvin Gordon holdout. And a really interesting dilemma for fantasy owners on where to draft Austin Eckler next year. Because not only are you maybe facing down a, you know, he's a restricted free agent. Melvin Gordon's likely to leave town. Philip Rivers likely to leave town. This is going to be very interesting where he's involved now, talent wise. I don't think anybody can complain or argue about what we've seen on film.

[Andy Holloway]

But everything to me is Phil Privers. If Philip Rivers is gone, I'm out on wherever Echler is drafted, I'll probably be below that adp. If Rivers is back, I'm in. Whether. And so this is. Melvin Gordon's there. Melvin Gordon's gone. I don't care either way. Basically, if Philip Rivers is the quarterback, I think he utilizes a running back like Austin Eckler in the passing game so much that you can rely on him for fantasy purposes. And of course, Echler could be at a different place. So this, this. I don't think this is one of those situations where we can accurately predict anything about Austin Eckler next year. Right now what we have to do is take a look at this year.

[Kenyon Drake]

And say, okay, what's the truth?

[Andy Holloway]

What was the truth about him? And the truth was when you get that level of passing volume, you are consistent. There were so many games. I remember when Melvin Gordon came back, listening to, you know, other people say, you should have traded him. You lost your chance. He's, you know, now he's nothing. And I kept thinking like, wait, no, he's going to. He should be fine. He was fine last year when Melvin Gordon, you know, the previous year when Melvin Gordon Was there and he was. He certainly didn't have the upside yet. Right. Those first four weeks, three of those first four weeks, he was. It was a top five running back. So he lost that when Melvin Gordon came back, but he was still consistent. He didn't hurt your team, but one time the whole season in any kind of drastic way. And that's all because pass catching backs are, you know, unduly valuable in fantasy football.

[Kenyon Drake]

If you look at the last eight games played over the year, maybe that's a more realistic place to put him. RB13 over that span, but didn't really beat you up. His worst games are 25th, 29th. I mean, this is.

[Jason Moore]

They were. The timing of them was unfortunate.

[Kenyon Drake]

Yeah, it was. But I mean, all the guys up ahead of him over the last eight games, in terms of rank, I mean, almost all of them had a bus game. You know, you talk about Aaron Jones had two busts in that span. Kenyon Drake, Alvin Camara, Todd Gurley, Mark Ingram. Those guys had bust games that Eckler didn't have. And it's always been a challenge for me to look at that situation and say, wow, I need to count on the passing game work alone or the passing game touchdown alone. He had eight touchdowns through the air. So next year will be very interesting. Landing spot quarterback, all of that.

[Jason Moore]

The eight receiving touchdowns, like, that's. That's not a number you can count on. And as far as receiving backs, I mean, most of the time you're playing them. This is a flex play. This is. This is my third spot.

[Kenyon Drake]

James White, I like.

[Jason Moore]

I know I'll get some points. Austin Eckler, the. So that was the type of passing work that he's actually a running back to. Just locked into your lineup.

[Kenyon Drake]

We take a lot of opportunity to insult coaches that seem to do stupid things with, you know, with their personnel. I feel like what happened in, you know, credit to Anthony Lynn or the offensive coaching staff, they started to just involve him in the passing game beyond out of the backfield, lining him up in the slot, calling, you know, pass plays, slant plays to him, getting him more involved because he was. He was a weapon that needed to be involved. So I give them a lot of credit for that. If he's still there, you know, they should do that again. So looking at number seven, Nick Chubb.

[Jason Moore]

Nicholas.

[Kenyon Drake]

Nick Chubb was number seven overall. Number seven, inconsistency, 298 carries. I think that's a headline for Nick Chubb's season. 1,494 yards, eight touchdowns didn't quite nail the preseason prediction that he would lead the AFC in rushing, thanks to, I believe, Derek Henry. But Chubb was up there and, you know, a really impressive season for a team that kind of didn't find its footing at all during the whole year. I mean, 75% good games.

[Jason Moore]

They didn't find their footing during all 16 games.

[Kenyon Drake]

I mean, I wanted to find when they did, but they really didn't. Disappointing. Very, very end of the year for Chubb, weeks 16 and 17, it really.

[Andy Holloway]

It'S not just 16 and 17. If you look at the split of when Kareem Hunt came back, this is why, you know, that when we project out the full season, I was a little lower on Chubb than I wanted to draft him. I wanted to draft him above where I had him ranked because I had the second half of the year worked in. He was the running back five through the first 10 games or the first 10 weeks when, when you didn't have Kareem Hunt there from week 11 on, he was a running back 15. That is, those are, you know, the difference between a top, you know, running back five and running back 15. That's pretty drastic.

[Kenyon Drake]

Yeah, but you would say that you, if you took the high investment on Nick Chubb, you won. I mean, you talk about the ADP situation for Nick Chubb if you get 10 weeks at RB5. Give me that all day, every day. Sure. But I wouldn't have regretted it.

[Andy Holloway]

The reason I'm bringing that up is more of a projection forward. If Kareem Hunt is there at the beginning of next year, people are still viewing Nick Chubb as, you know, if not top five back, very, very close to that spot.

[Kenyon Drake]

He's a top 12 draft pick for me still.

[Jason Moore]

Even if Kareem is back.

[Kenyon Drake]

Yeah, yeah, I think so. So, I mean, I don't think he's. I don't think RB15 is where I would bank, you know, the Kareem Hunt experience that you said. I don't think Hunt's going to be back.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think he's back either.

[Kenyon Drake]

But if he did, I mean, I put him right. He's going to be in a top. My top 12. Nick Chubb would be because he's great. He's a great running back.

[Andy Holloway]

He is phenomenal.

[Kenyon Drake]

So if you hope that Stefanski and Baker's better and Odell's better, Chubb is, you know, he put up a number seven overall season and he did it with eight total touchdowns. To me, that's very impressive. As A running back when you have the Aaron Jones is finishing ahead of him or Henry, these guys with high double digit touchdowns. Chubb played on an offense that consistently struggled and still finished at 7 overall and 7 at consistency. So I have a hard time taking Chubb outside the top 10 after that year myself. I guess I'm more sympathetic to that season and more impressed with what I saw in film.

[Jason Moore]

Do you have Nick Chubb or I'm sorry, Kareem Hunt, do you have him leaving the team or staying?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't understand the contract situation well enough to.

[Jason Moore]

He's restricted with. So he will go out and he will try to find offers. You know, if that's the Matt. Well, we'll see what they tag him with. I mean like they could put a, they'll, they'll probably put a second round tag on it.

[Andy Holloway]

I think the fact that John Dorsey probably stay.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, if they put a second round.

[Kenyon Drake]

If they did that.

[Andy Holloway]

Well to, to speak to him, leaving John Dorsey, who drafted him with Kansas City, who then went to the Browns and signed him, that's who brought him along. I don't think Kareem Hunt. Kareem Hunt. His goal is to go out and get the biggest contract he can and if there is a suitor, and I think there should be, then yeah, he could be gone. But the interesting thing with Chubb and we wondered going into last season about the past work of Chubb, he wasn't really a pass catching back in college. That's not his specialty. Was he going to get involved once, you know, Hunt came back, he was on pace for 24 receptions on the course of a 16 game season with Hunt there. So whoever it is, if it's Hunt or a Duke Johnson type, if they bring someone else in there, I think you have to look at Chubb as a, as one of those Marlon Mack, Derek Henry types that to me push him lower. If he's not an outlier, I think it's fair.

[Kenyon Drake]

I think that's Derek Henry light. I mean that's kind of what you would look at an offense that you have less confidence in compared to Tennessee if things stayed the same. But a player that's very talented, a player that, you know, Nick Chubb has that 60 yard, 70 yard touchdown potential all the time, every play. Yeah, I mean week four he was the number one overall, number two in week six, number five in week 12. So those weeks are in there. We'll see. There'll be a lot of talk about Kevin Stefanski and what he represents to Nick Chubb's. Continued high workload. All right, we'll wrap it up with number eight, Mark Ingram. Mark Ingram at number eight, but his consistency rank was 15. Just 202 carries. Right. That's a big piece of the puzzle. 60% of the time, good games, 33% of the time, great games. Did we catch lightning in a barrel with an older Mark Ingram here in Baltimore with a big whiskey barrel?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And it caught fire because the wood of the barrel, when lightning is hard to catch it in a barrel. And so the barrel caught fire.

[Kenyon Drake]

Not a bottle. A barrel.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, not a bottle.

[Kenyon Drake]

You don't want to use a bottle, guys. It's so small. You want to use a fire.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Kenyon Drake]

A barrel that's very, very flammable.

[Andy Holloway]

It's always. That's what they say whenever you're trying to get that lightning put out the wood. Lightning loves the wood.

[Kenyon Drake]

Gotta catch. Did we catch lightning in a barrel with Mark Ingram?

[Andy Holloway]

I would say we didn't.

[Jason Moore]

Well, it had a few fish in it. I was trying to shoot him.

[Kenyon Drake]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

But there are all these little hooks.

[Kenyon Drake]

You know, it took me, like, it took me a good 10 seconds after I said it to real. Oh, I said barrel.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Lightning in a barrel. And we're not going to let that.

[Jason Moore]

Go, as they say.

[Kenyon Drake]

Well, you catch fish in a bottle, guys.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, exactly.

[Kenyon Drake]

Okay. Do you have anything to say about Mark Ingram himself?

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Number one, congratulations to Mark Ingram. That was a much better season than I projected.

[Kenyon Drake]

Pick the right place to sign, didn't he?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, absolutely.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, he went out, he got. He got paid. Considering his. His age and the wear and tear. Was on a great team. A team that had super bowl aspirations. I look for the way that he scored, though. That's. I know that's what we're kind of beating to death right now. But the Ravens were so freaking awesome. They scored so many times. It's just. It's not something that I'm banking like. I'm not banking on Mark Ingram heading into next year. Sure, he can get over a thousand rushing yards and maybe even come through with the. The 10 rushing touchdowns, but five receiving touchdowns on 26 receptions? That's just that. That's not happening again. I mean, we talked about Austin Eckler's eight on his 90 plus receptions as saying that that was. That was crazy. Like running. Running back receiving touchdowns just don't happen.

[Andy Holloway]

When you're in the 20s. When you're in the 20s in receptions and you've got five touchdowns receiving.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's ridiculous.

[Andy Holloway]

Totally Agree. Not happening. He's.

[Kenyon Drake]

In other words, we're going to be in the same boat we always are with Mark Ingall.

[Jason Moore]

And then next.

[Kenyon Drake]

Perennially undervalued.

[Jason Moore]

I just didn't see it coming.

[Kenyon Drake]

He caught lightning in a barrel again.

[Jason Moore]

There's no way he can do it again.

[Kenyon Drake]

Maybe that's what makes him so special. Maybe the barrel should be on fire, but it isn't.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, he's entirely a wheelbarrow. Yeah, he's entirely dependent wheelbarrow where his ADP is because. Wheelbarrow. Thank you, Mike.

[Kenyon Drake]

We're back.

[Andy Holloway]

Because the reality is his age has already for the last.

[Jason Moore]

It just keeps going up.

[Andy Holloway]

For the last few years it's made people not excited about his potential. They think we've seen him, he's older now. So usually when guys are like in that stage of their career every single year they're undervalued in the 1500 carries.

[Kenyon Drake]

30 years old. Yeah, he'll be undervalued and he probably shouldn't be.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. But I don't expect him to be a top. You know, he's the running back eight this year. That seems a little higher than where he is.

[Jason Moore]

What about a top 20 guy?

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I think, yeah, he's. He's still the first guy to run the ball for a run happy team with a great offense. So I'm in on Mark Ingram for next year. I think he'll probably exceed his ADP because he'll fall too low. But he's not going to repeat the running back eight this year. But the reality is the way that he finished as the running back eight is actually what sucked because he wasn't consistent. Consistency rank of number 15. That feels like where his.

[Kenyon Drake]

Where he. His real value was at 15.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. He'll be about there for me next year.

[Kenyon Drake]

Okay. Yeah, he was. What is this, 43rd in routes run among running backs.

[Andy Holloway]

He just had a lot of meh. A lot of meh games he didn't bust. He busted once. But he had so many games that were like, okay, he's there. He.

[Kenyon Drake]

Well, yeah. How about, you know, six carries in a game, eight carries in a game. Those were the weird ones where you know, if Lamar ended up being the feature back of that game, then that's. That's what all you needed. All right, that's going to be the pause button on running back truth for today's episode. We're going to get right back into it on Thursday's episode. Some very interesting names. We're going to talk about Leonard fournette Saquon Barkley, you know, Alvin Camara, which you know for many I think surprising to be talking about him on the second Truth episode. So a lot of big names to get into it. Look forward to it. But that'll do it for us today. Unless you guys have any parting words. Teach me.

[Andy Holloway]

Goodbye.

[Kenyon Drake]

Teach me about lightning. That's what I need to know. All right, that is it.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you so much for listening to the show. We will see you on Thursday.

[Andy Holloway]

Have a.

[Jason Moore]

Have an excellent Wednesday. Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy football podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter ffballers.

[Jason Moore]

Remember Foot Clan? With SimpliSafe you get comprehensive enterprise level security for your own home if there's a break in. Simplisafe uses real video evidence to give police an eyewitness account of the crime and it costs just 50 cents a day. Visit simplisafe.comfootballers you'll get free shipping and a 60 day risk free trial. You got nothing to lose. Go now to simplisafe.com footballers so they know that our show sent you that. Simplisafe.com footballers.