Fantasy Footballers Podcast - Episode: "The TRUTH: Top Tier Fantasy WRs in 2019"

Release Date: January 14, 2020

In this insightful episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright delve deep into the performance and fantasy football value of the top wide receivers (WRs) from the 2019 NFL season. Titled "The TRUTH: Top Tier Fantasy WRs in 2019," the episode provides a comprehensive analysis, focusing on both the fantasy standings and the consistency of each player’s performance throughout the season.

Introduction to the Truth Series

At the outset ([21:19]), Andy Holloway introduces the "Truth" episodes, emphasizing their goal to dissect the real value of top fantasy wide receivers by comparing their actual fantasy outcomes against their perceived potential and consistency.

Andy Holloway ([21:25]): "We're starting with the wide receiver position today. Thursday. Wide receiver truth. Very, very interesting."

Methodology: Consistency Ranking

Before diving into player analyses, Jason Moore explains the proprietary methodology used to rank consistency ([24:32]).

Jason Moore ([24:32]):
"We take a look at great games being those games... more than 22 fantasy points. A good game is more than 10, bust games are under seven... our consistency score is proprietary."

This system categorizes WR performances into:

• Great Games: >22 fantasy points
• Good Games: 10–22 fantasy points
• Bust Games: <7 fantasy points

Missed games due to injuries or other reasons are excluded from the consistency score to ensure an accurate reflection of a player's performance when active.

Top Wide Receivers Analyzed

1. Michael Thomas

Ranked as the number one overall fantasy wide receiver and number one in consistency.

Andy Holloway ([26:42]): "149 receptions, 1725 yards and nine touchdowns. He had eight games that qualified as great week winning weeks... one actual bust week."

Jason Moore ([27:41]):
"When you break the NFL record for receptions, you have to be consistent."

Thomas exhibited unparalleled consistency and volume, solidifying his top position. With a remarkable catch rate and target volume, Thomas proved to be a reliable asset for fantasy managers.

2. Chris Godwin

Secured the number two spot and matched the top three consistency.

Jason Moore ([30:30]):
"The top three guys were also the three most consistent."

Godwin demonstrated high performance with minimal busts, making him a dependable choice. His ability to consistently produce fantasy points, especially against various defenses, underscored his value.

Andy Holloway ([31:25]):
"He was very consistent... missed weeks 16 and 17 with injury."

Despite missing the final weeks, Godwin's overall consistency kept him in the upper echelon of fantasy WRs.

3. Julio Jones

Finished as one of the most consistent receivers despite a slight dip in yardage.

Andy Holloway ([35:19]):
"99 receptions, 1394 yards and six touchdowns, 157 targets."

Jason Moore ([35:53]):
"He has to be like number one because he just... Julio Jones gets it done."

Jones maintained his peak performance, ensuring his status as a top-tier WR. His synergy with quarterback Matt Ryan and high target volume contributed to his strong fantasy finish.

4. Cooper Kupp

Held the number four overall spot but revealed some inconsistencies.

Andy Holloway ([37:56]):
"Cooper Cup is the number four overall fantasy receiver. We need to just quadruple check this. This seems so unlikely."

Kupp showcased potential with significant yardage and touchdowns but struggled with consistency, particularly against top-tier defenses. His performance variability highlighted the challenges in relying solely on Kupp for fantasy success.

Jason Moore ([40:39]):
"Cooper Cup was very good this year, obviously very consistent."

While Kupp had standout games, the inconsistency in his weekly performance raised concerns about his reliability in future seasons.

5. DeAndre Hopkins

Ranked as the fifth most consistent WR, Hopkins rebounded after a slow start.

Andy Holloway ([42:29]):
"104 receptions, 1165 yards, seven touchdowns, 150 targets."

Mike Wright ([43:07]):
"Hopkins was very solid... he was only great in 27% of his games."

Hopkins overcame an initial slump to deliver solid performances, maintaining his reputation as a top WR despite some fluctuations in his weekly output.

Jason Moore ([43:07]):
"He's a top three wide receiver. Still going."

Hopkins’ talent and role within the offense ensured his continued relevance in fantasy drafts, despite the early-season challenges.

6. Kenny Golladay

Secured the number six spot but faced quarterback inconsistency issues.

Andy Holloway ([46:23]):
"Kenny Golladay finished at number six. He was the ninth most consistent."

Jason Moore ([48:30]):
"Kenny Golladay is ... an extremely valuable weapon."

Golladay demonstrated his prowess when paired with stable quarterback play but struggled when quarterback performance waned, highlighting the importance of supporting roles in his fantasy value.

Mike Wright ([49:03]):
"If he gets the whole season with Stafford, I think he's going to be an excellent."

Golladay's performance is closely tied to quarterback stability, making him a potentially high-reward pick with associated risks.

7. Keenan Allen

Ranked lower due to an inconsistent season influenced by quarterback uncertainties.

Andy Holloway ([56:00]):
"Keenan Allen came in at number eight, but he was the 16th most consistent."

Jason Moore ([57:33]):
"When you tell me you get 1200 yards and eight touchdowns... he feels like the wide receiver on the year."

Despite accumulating respectable yardage and targets, Allen's inconsistency and quarterback situation affected his reliability, leading to a lower consistency ranking.

Insights and Conclusions

• Consistency is Key: The episode underscores the importance of consistency over sheer volume or high ceilings. Players like Michael Thomas and Chris Godwin exemplify the value of reliable weekly performances.

• Impact of Quarterback Play: Several WRs' performances were closely tied to their quarterbacks' stability and effectiveness. For instance, Kenny Golladay's value is heavily influenced by quarterback Matt Stafford's performance.

• Fantasy Strategy Implications: Fantasy managers are encouraged to prioritize WRs who offer both high performance and consistent weekly outputs. The analysis suggests drafting WRs like Michael Thomas and Julio Jones at the top while being cautious with players whose value fluctuates based on external factors like team dynamics or injuries.

• Future Projections: The hosts anticipate continued high performance from the top WRs but advise vigilance regarding potential declines or inconsistencies in upcoming seasons, particularly with changes in team structures or player roles.

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway ([26:42]):
  "149 receptions, 1725 yards and nine touchdowns. He had eight games that qualified as great week winning weeks... one actual bust week."

• Jason Moore ([27:41]):
  "When you break the NFL record for receptions, you have to be consistent."

• Mike Wright ([43:07]):
  "Hopkins was very solid... he was only great in 27% of his games."

• Jason Moore ([48:30]):
  "Kenny Golladay is ... an extremely valuable weapon."

This episode provides fantasy managers with a nuanced understanding of the 2019 WR landscape, emphasizing the balance between performance and reliability. By dissecting each player's season through a consistency lens, the Fantasy Footballers equip listeners with actionable insights to enhance their draft strategies and team management for the upcoming fantasy football season.