The TRUTH: Top Tier Fantasy WRs in 2019

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast - Episode: "The TRUTH: Top Tier Fantasy WRs in 2019"

Release Date: January 14, 2020

In this insightful episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright delve deep into the performance and fantasy football value of the top wide receivers (WRs) from the 2019 NFL season. Titled "The TRUTH: Top Tier Fantasy WRs in 2019," the episode provides a comprehensive analysis, focusing on both the fantasy standings and the consistency of each player’s performance throughout the season.

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Introduction to the Truth Series

At the outset ([21:19]), Andy Holloway introduces the "Truth" episodes, emphasizing their goal to dissect the real value of top fantasy wide receivers by comparing their actual fantasy outcomes against their perceived potential and consistency.

Andy Holloway ([21:25]): "We're starting with the wide receiver position today. Thursday. Wide receiver truth. Very, very interesting."

Methodology: Consistency Ranking

Before diving into player analyses, Jason Moore explains the proprietary methodology used to rank consistency ([24:32]).

Jason Moore ([24:32]):
"We take a look at great games being those games... more than 22 fantasy points. A good game is more than 10, bust games are under seven... our consistency score is proprietary."

This system categorizes WR performances into:

• Great Games: >22 fantasy points
• Good Games: 10–22 fantasy points
• Bust Games: <7 fantasy points

Missed games due to injuries or other reasons are excluded from the consistency score to ensure an accurate reflection of a player's performance when active.

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Top Wide Receivers Analyzed

1. Michael Thomas

Ranked as the number one overall fantasy wide receiver and number one in consistency.

Andy Holloway ([26:42]): "149 receptions, 1725 yards and nine touchdowns. He had eight games that qualified as great week winning weeks... one actual bust week."

Jason Moore ([27:41]):
"When you break the NFL record for receptions, you have to be consistent."

Thomas exhibited unparalleled consistency and volume, solidifying his top position. With a remarkable catch rate and target volume, Thomas proved to be a reliable asset for fantasy managers.

2. Chris Godwin

Secured the number two spot and matched the top three consistency.

Jason Moore ([30:30]):
"The top three guys were also the three most consistent."

Godwin demonstrated high performance with minimal busts, making him a dependable choice. His ability to consistently produce fantasy points, especially against various defenses, underscored his value.

Andy Holloway ([31:25]):
"He was very consistent... missed weeks 16 and 17 with injury."

Despite missing the final weeks, Godwin's overall consistency kept him in the upper echelon of fantasy WRs.

3. Julio Jones

Finished as one of the most consistent receivers despite a slight dip in yardage.

Andy Holloway ([35:19]):
"99 receptions, 1394 yards and six touchdowns, 157 targets."

Jason Moore ([35:53]):
"He has to be like number one because he just... Julio Jones gets it done."

Jones maintained his peak performance, ensuring his status as a top-tier WR. His synergy with quarterback Matt Ryan and high target volume contributed to his strong fantasy finish.

4. Cooper Kupp

Held the number four overall spot but revealed some inconsistencies.

Andy Holloway ([37:56]):
"Cooper Cup is the number four overall fantasy receiver. We need to just quadruple check this. This seems so unlikely."

Kupp showcased potential with significant yardage and touchdowns but struggled with consistency, particularly against top-tier defenses. His performance variability highlighted the challenges in relying solely on Kupp for fantasy success.

Jason Moore ([40:39]):
"Cooper Cup was very good this year, obviously very consistent."

While Kupp had standout games, the inconsistency in his weekly performance raised concerns about his reliability in future seasons.

5. DeAndre Hopkins

Ranked as the fifth most consistent WR, Hopkins rebounded after a slow start.

Andy Holloway ([42:29]):
"104 receptions, 1165 yards, seven touchdowns, 150 targets."

Mike Wright ([43:07]):
"Hopkins was very solid... he was only great in 27% of his games."

Hopkins overcame an initial slump to deliver solid performances, maintaining his reputation as a top WR despite some fluctuations in his weekly output.

Jason Moore ([43:07]):
"He's a top three wide receiver. Still going."

Hopkins’ talent and role within the offense ensured his continued relevance in fantasy drafts, despite the early-season challenges.

6. Kenny Golladay

Secured the number six spot but faced quarterback inconsistency issues.

Andy Holloway ([46:23]):
"Kenny Golladay finished at number six. He was the ninth most consistent."

Jason Moore ([48:30]):
"Kenny Golladay is ... an extremely valuable weapon."

Golladay demonstrated his prowess when paired with stable quarterback play but struggled when quarterback performance waned, highlighting the importance of supporting roles in his fantasy value.

Mike Wright ([49:03]):
"If he gets the whole season with Stafford, I think he's going to be an excellent."

Golladay's performance is closely tied to quarterback stability, making him a potentially high-reward pick with associated risks.

7. Keenan Allen

Ranked lower due to an inconsistent season influenced by quarterback uncertainties.

Andy Holloway ([56:00]):
"Keenan Allen came in at number eight, but he was the 16th most consistent."

Jason Moore ([57:33]):
"When you tell me you get 1200 yards and eight touchdowns... he feels like the wide receiver on the year."

Despite accumulating respectable yardage and targets, Allen's inconsistency and quarterback situation affected his reliability, leading to a lower consistency ranking.

---

Insights and Conclusions

• Consistency is Key: The episode underscores the importance of consistency over sheer volume or high ceilings. Players like Michael Thomas and Chris Godwin exemplify the value of reliable weekly performances.

• Impact of Quarterback Play: Several WRs' performances were closely tied to their quarterbacks' stability and effectiveness. For instance, Kenny Golladay's value is heavily influenced by quarterback Matt Stafford's performance.

• Fantasy Strategy Implications: Fantasy managers are encouraged to prioritize WRs who offer both high performance and consistent weekly outputs. The analysis suggests drafting WRs like Michael Thomas and Julio Jones at the top while being cautious with players whose value fluctuates based on external factors like team dynamics or injuries.

• Future Projections: The hosts anticipate continued high performance from the top WRs but advise vigilance regarding potential declines or inconsistencies in upcoming seasons, particularly with changes in team structures or player roles.

Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway ([26:42]):
  "149 receptions, 1725 yards and nine touchdowns. He had eight games that qualified as great week winning weeks... one actual bust week."

• Jason Moore ([27:41]):
  "When you break the NFL record for receptions, you have to be consistent."

• Mike Wright ([43:07]):
  "Hopkins was very solid... he was only great in 27% of his games."

• Jason Moore ([48:30]):
  "Kenny Golladay is ... an extremely valuable weapon."

---

This episode provides fantasy managers with a nuanced understanding of the 2019 WR landscape, emphasizing the balance between performance and reliability. By dissecting each player's season through a consistency lens, the Fantasy Footballers equip listeners with actionable insights to enhance their draft strategies and team management for the upcoming fantasy football season.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Foreign.

[Jason Moore]

To the Fantasy Footballers podcast coming to you from Pristine Auction.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in, welcome in. The Fantasy Fantasy Footballers. Back with you, Andy, Mike and Jason. Oh, it's so good to be back.

[Mike Wright]

It's fantastic to be back.

[Andy Holloway]

Another weekend of incredible playoff football in the books.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, my goodness.

[Andy Holloway]

The much awaited truth episodes are upon us.

[Jason Moore]

There's no Pinocchio wide receivers on today's episode. We're gonna find out all these lies. Their nose grows.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm just leaving you alone.

[Mike Wright]

Trying to figure out how to work together.

[Andy Holloway]

It just really didn't.

[Jason Moore]

I loved it.

[Andy Holloway]

Big swing and a miss like you beat the Ballers team this week.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, stupid Tevin Coleman. Stupid, stupid Tevin Coleman.

[Mike Wright]

They were saving him, man.

[Jason Moore]

He took all three of my players out of the game because I had Raheem Mostert, which he made irrelevant. Then I had Dalvin Cook, who now it's like, oh, they've got to pass the ball. And George Kittle, which now you can't pass the ball.

[Andy Holloway]

I thought the 49ers defense made Dalvin Cook irrelevant. I don't think it was the other way around.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's fair.

[Mike Wright]

That's fair. There was one bad game.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, congratulations everybody. Playing beattheballers.com because you beat me this week no matter what you did.

[Andy Holloway]

That is true.

[Mike Wright]

I forgot to put my third guy in. Doesn't matter.

[Jason Moore]

Still one.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you have a lower total score than I did last?

[Jason Moore]

I did okay.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, man, I can't wait.

[Andy Holloway]

Saw it was. Thought it was impossible to do that.

[Jason Moore]

They said it couldn't be done.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in. Find us on Twitter at the ffballers instagram.com fantasy footballers. We've got buy or sell on the show today. Distancing myself from whatever Pinocchio reference you were going for. We have the truth episodes for wide receivers. We're going to break down essentially the top wide receivers on today's show. How they fared in terms of, you know, actual fantasy finish versus their consistency, how they. How they aided or hurt your fantasy football team this past year. Get to the bottom of their actual value versus perceived value. These shows, you might end up listening to them more than once, I would bet, before draft season because remembering which guys you want on your team for next year and the types of things that can happen to players that quote unquote finish in the top 10 versus what they actually provide for your team, it's just important information to keep in mind, Mike, Just to give you fair warning in Case you want to run out of here kicking and screaming, we will be talking about Amari Cooper.

[Mike Wright]

Why would I need to run out? The truth will reveal itself.

[Andy Holloway]

I guess it sets you free.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, my friends, I'm already in the clouds. I'm free.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So we have some news we'll break down as well. New coaching hire, some vandalism. We'll get into it soon.

[Jason Moore]

Buy or sell? Presented by Pristine Auction.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, Brooks has a buy or sell topic for us today. It's a simple question. Marlon Mack. It's a Marlon Mack question. Will he finish higher than the running back 20 in 2020? So many 20s this upcoming season. A buy or sell. Marlon Mack is a top 20 running back. He finished as the running back 20 in last season with just 14 games played. We don't know where this team is turning at the quarterback position.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. But for, you know, look, if you're in a dynasty league, a keeper league, sometimes you have to make decisions. Now, we don't know what the draft is going to hold and, you know, what free agency is going to do for the Colts, but I'm going to buy it because I believe that the Colts do not want to invest heavily at the running back position financially. They have Marlon Mack there is he contract year. Right.

[Mike Wright]

For the people out there.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So it's a contract year for Marlon Mack. I believe that there are numerous ways he can do better than this year. One, they can get a better quarterback in there, which I think they're going to explore, try to maybe find some veteran free agent who's being, you know, left alone a la ryan Tannehill of 2019 and get someone else in there. And also he only played 14 games and he was the running back 20. So I believe that he will be their running back next year in the similar role that he's. He's had over the last two. And I, you know, my love for Marlon Mack's talent is well documented. I believe he is good enough to get the job done. If the offense can do a little better, and I think they will next.

[Andy Holloway]

Year, yeah, I'll buy it because it's not a, it's not a very high bar for a starting running back to end up inside the top 20 at the position. And Mack is certainly talented. I think you've seen illustrated by the Kenyon Drake situation change, the necessity of everything to kind of come together. You mentioned a way that it could get better. That sounded like a way for it to get worse as well. Messing with another quarterback. The fact that we saw at times Indianapolis show inconsistent commitment to, you know, one running back during parts of games.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

If you don't have a top tier offense and you have some committee elements to a backfield, I don't think that Mack ends up in that top 12. Unless you give me, you know, unless you can name that quarterback for me right now. But I think top 20. With his talent and what we saw, 14 games, like you mentioned. Why not? I mean he finished the year, the last two weeks top 12 back. Once he was back from, you know, injury or recovering from injury. I'm buying it.

[Mike Wright]

I'm buying it as well because I'm projecting him to be the starting running back for the Colts. They're a fine team. They have a great offensive line, good head coach.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So he'll be in the top 20. His usage though is very interesting because they, it was pretty clear at the beginning of the year they wanted Marlon Mack to be like their guy. You're talking 76% of snaps. 70, 61 gets hurt, comes back 67, 70%. I mean he's, that's a full time running back. If your running back is on the field 70% of the time for fantasy football, you're very happy. But then the end of the year where he was still efficient, I mean he was scoring a whole bunch of touchdowns. You have what, five touchdowns in his last five games. He was splitting a lot more with like Naheem Hines. But it wasn't, it wasn't a predictable split because you have their loss to New Orleans where it was 7 to 34. I mean, absolutely getting blown out. But Heinz not on the field very much so. I think it's a, it's not a situation where everything is clear enough to be able to like project Marlomac. Like let's go in on Marlon Mack being that top 12 guy like you're talking about Andy. But top 20 seems fairly reasonable for a guy even if he misses a couple games with that offensive line, he should get top 20.

[Jason Moore]

I honestly bought first because I thought both of you gentlemen would sell this based on them either bringing in another.

[Mike Wright]

Back or I'm with you. I don't think that they will invest in a running back if he's a good runner.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's just a team that I'm not sure of what the future holds in that division and with the quarterback position and the opportunities there, you know, he's a really good running back.

[Mike Wright]

Now if you're saying like, hey, dynasty wise, Mike, you think Marlon Mack will be the starting Running back for the Colts in 2021.

[Jason Moore]

I don't.

[Mike Wright]

I think that they'll find someone else. They'll replace him.

[Andy Holloway]

He may go committee somewhere.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. That was by herself from Pristine Auction. A reminder each week pristineauction.com they've upped. They've upped the bonus.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, bonus.

[Andy Holloway]

This year if you use the registration code [e-mail] youm get a $10 credit towards incredible sports memorabilia. You always see it on our walls.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yes, you do.

[Mike Wright]

You see a Mr. Devonte Adams on the wall with the alternate colored jersey. He was sensational. Jason, as terrible as your beat the Ballers team was, that's how great mine was.

[Andy Holloway]

It almost looks like your signature on the jersey, though.

[Mike Wright]

What? No, I would never.

[Andy Holloway]

It looks a little.

[Jason Moore]

It actually does.

[Andy Holloway]

It does look a lot like your signature.

[Jason Moore]

So Mike T. Rex just in. Devonte Adams has a really bad signature.

[Mike Wright]

Hey, wait a minute.

[Jason Moore]

You just.

[Andy Holloway]

Luckily, luckily there is a.

[Mike Wright]

My signature is built for speed and efficiency.

[Andy Holloway]

There's a JSA authentication that comes with it. So I know it wasn't Mike. Let's get into the news.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. The 49ers popped the Minnesota Vikings bubble in every way, shape and form 27 to 10.

[Mike Wright]

That game sucked.

[Andy Holloway]

Tennessee shocker of all shockers, our reactions to the Baltimore Ravens. Look, no credit should be taken away from Tennessee. What they've done has been incredible from a coaching execution. Derek Henry, Ryan Tannehill. Everything Tennessee has done deserves praise. But I could not help but feel a little bit like the air was taking out of. You know, there's just something that felt wrong, like Baltimore needed to lose twice. Like that's how I feel like you need to. You should get to lose twice in the playoffs after they were so great. Because they were so great. You win 12 straight. Lamar was so good. They're at home. It's just such a shock when you have so much anticipation for a franchise and then it's over, it's done. This season doesn't matter anymore.

[Mike Wright]

And the. What's hilarious for Tennessee? I mean this. If you jump on Twitter for any length of time. I mean, you know the debates, teams that are able to run pass. Should you be a pass heavy team? They have two victories on the road. One against the greatest team of all time, the greatest coach, the greatest quarterback. And then against Baltimore, who was the best team in the NFL this year. And Ryan Tannehill has a. Has thrown for 72 yards and 88 yards when you. What is happening?

[Jason Moore]

What is happening? This is not.

[Mike Wright]

Stop it. Tennessee. Stop it.

[Jason Moore]

Derek Henry can go into a phone booth and quickly change clothes because he is a superhuman. Yes and no. It's just. It's been a. It's been a really fun ride. You know, I've got 88 yards in the playoff challenge. I have A.J. brown. I mean, you telling me that the Titans, I had them from wild card weekend. You tell me that you're getting that bonus. I'm super into this. The Titans just won back to back games. He's going into the third three times points, but I might get three times zero, which. Anything type zero, I've learned, is zero.

[Mike Wright]

Nice.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, last year, a lot of reliance on Sonny Michelle. New England's trouncing through the playoffs. And first of all, you know, people were posting the Dave Gettleman running team, making fun of him as a general manager, as they should have. When I saw it, I was like, no, you're right. I mean, the running teams are in the playoffs and succeeding. San Francisco's a running team. They've been that all year long. Kyle Shanahan's offense. But first of all, here's an idea. Do both. I mean, you could do both. That's enough. When you need.

[Mike Wright]

You must do both.

[Andy Holloway]

When you need to run, run. When you need to pass, pass. That's what Tannehill's been able to do when they've needed to rely on him never to win games.

[Mike Wright]

Not at all in the playoffs, but.

[Andy Holloway]

In the playoffs. No, but, but towards the end of the season, he was. I mean, he jumped their, Their passing yards per game up from 200 to 300 something.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So first of all, you can do both. Second of all, look, there's no greater validation for a running football strategy than this season's playoffs, at least on the, on the NFC side or, I mean, with San Francisco and with Tennessee, to me, it's.

[Mike Wright]

It's. Derek Henry is the outlier. Like, he's just. He, He's a beast of a man and he. They have got the perfect offensive line scheme going for him right now. Because it's not all just Derek Henry getting hit at the line and then grinding out four yards. It's. I mean, he's, he's being. They're letting him build up ahead of steam and they're like, I don't care if you think you're the baddest man on the planet. If you saw Derek Henry running at.

[Jason Moore]

You with a head of steam.

[Mike Wright]

With a head of steam.

[Jason Moore]

You're. You're out.

[Mike Wright]

You're going to shout, tell my family.

[Andy Holloway]

I love them pretty much. I mean, he's been unbelievable. First player ever, I think, with 180 plus yards, like, three games.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I saw that.

[Andy Holloway]

Kansas City came back.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, man.

[Jason Moore]

What in the world with that game?

[Andy Holloway]

I. I had 51 to 31. Let me just get that in there. 82 points scored.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, in the beginning of that game, when the Chiefs were down 24, nothing. I was like, I wasted. I wasted this next three hours like, there's not going to be a game. This game is over.

[Mike Wright]

I was so sad. Three minutes later, for everyone in the stands of, how. How much did you pay for these tickets? You've been waiting all week. And then it was. They should have had to pay triple.

[Andy Holloway]

The game was bananas, and Green Bay held on to beat Seattle 28, 23. So here we are. And I like the AFC title game.

[Mike Wright]

I like to think that the tide turned when O'Brien didn't go for it on 4th and 1. I choose to believe that narrative.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you know, I thought that the kickoff return when he came out of the end zone before he fumbled, I go, what are you doing? Because you're just. You're just multiplying opportunities for mistakes here.

[Mike Wright]

Special teams, man. Like, it was very costly for them, very costly for the Vikings. They were. I mean, they at least were holding on to the cliff until the muff punt.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so we have Tennessee going to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs in the AFC title game. We've got Green Bay traveling to San Francisco in the NFC title game. It's going to be fun. It's going to be interesting.

[Mike Wright]

Green Bay is still around.

[Andy Holloway]

No Ravens, no Saints, no Patriots.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, man.

[Andy Holloway]

So we could end up with some very interesting Super Bowls if I'm, you know, rooting for one. It'd be pretty fun to see Mahomes and Rogers.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, yes.

[Andy Holloway]

We'll see. We'll see what happens. All right. The Browns have hired Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski as their new head coach.

[Jason Moore]

Because, of course, they did. They're the Browns now.

[Andy Holloway]

That's insulting to Kevin Stefanski. Jason.

[Jason Moore]

I don't want to take anything away from.

[Mike Wright]

He's better than that one game.

[Jason Moore]

Sure. No, this isn't based on how bad the Vikings offense.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, they were really bad.

[Jason Moore]

This is solely based on the fact that I think where the Browns made a mistake for the type of organization they are last year is that they went out and they got a guy who. Yeah, he's got history, you know, as an assistant or a, you know, quarterbacks coach or whatever. But he had one year him being Freddy Kitchens calling plays as a coordinator. Only one year at the coordinator level. No other experience ahead of that, obviously. And they hired him and it was like he wasn't ready. So they went out and they did the exact same thing. I got a guy with one year of coordinator play calling experience, you know, that's it. And so, hey, maybe it works, but it's just not the process I would have trusted.

[Andy Holloway]

I. When I put an early 2020 fantasy football rankings list together and I had Nick Chubb in that top 10, top 12.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

I got a little nervous about putting him there with what's happening in Cleveland, even though he had been so good this year. I think Stefanski aids the kind of like better cements the fact that Chubb's going to be a centerpiece there. Unless they upgrade that offensive line to protect Baker Mayfield, this offense is still going to run through Nick Chubb. In my opinion, Stefanski was one of the most run heavy offensive coordinators in football. Which could be a reflection on Mike Zimmer, as Jason mentioned to me this morning.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And so that his OC hire will be very interesting to watch.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. They let go of Todd Monkin.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Broncos hired Pat Shermer. I think it's a great hire.

[Jason Moore]

I love this so much. I've been a believer of Shermer. I think he's a good. He might not be a great head coach. We've seen that before plenty of times where a guy is a really good offensive coordinator, a good offensive mind or defensive. And they just can't run the whole kick boodle him. Coming over Drew Locke at Cortland Sutton, you know, getting Pat Shermer. I absolutely love this.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. And then Julian Edelman jumped on top of a vehicle and was arrested for misdemeanor vandalism. Now in Beverly Hills, I need to.

[Mike Wright]

See the jump first off, because it's. I have experience of like, trying to be fun with my friends. Back as a teenager where I. I tried to do a hood slide on my buddy's car. This just turned into a giant hood dent. So if you're out there, hood sliding is not as easy as it looks in the movies. It's very easy to just create a crater in your friend's car. Oh, yeah, this thing was dented.

[Jason Moore]

It.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, it wasn't a dent. This was a cavern on my friend's hood. So maybe Edelman was just going for a slide and it went wrong. I don't know.

[Andy Holloway]

It's hard to go from that to being arrested. That's like. Well, how do you not just take somebody's insurance information and deal with it that way?

[Mike Wright]

Well, I mean, where were they? Beverly Hills?

[Jason Moore]

Well, I don't think he was doing a car slide.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I said. I need to see the video.

[Jason Moore]

I'm guessing he's.

[Andy Holloway]

How much alcohol was involved?

[Jason Moore]

I'm guessing there was probably more than none.

[Andy Holloway]

More than none. Okay, it's time to get into the truth. Before we do that, I want to thank today's sponsor, SimpliSafe. SimpliSafe Home Security is like getting commercial grade enterprise level security for your own home. So think about those security, the security that Fortune 500 companies use. That's the kind of security you get with Simplisafe if there's a break in. They use real video evidence to give police eyewitness accounts of the crime. That means that police Dispatch up to 350% faster than for a normal burglar alarm. With Simplisafe you get comprehensive.

[Mike Wright]

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[Andy Holloway]

I was.

[Mike Wright]

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[Andy Holloway]

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[Mike Wright]

And speaking of things that should be burgled away, the tartar.

[Andy Holloway]

Get rid of that.

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[Andy Holloway]

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[Mike Wright]

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[Andy Holloway]

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[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's get into the truth.

[Mike Wright]

You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers?

[Andy Holloway]

I want the truth.

[Jason Moore]

You can't handle the truth.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, I'm gonna be the. Let me tell you the truth here. That wasn't the cleanest ad read I've ever done so that.

[Mike Wright]

It was sensational.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, yeah. And, you know, good partner. Simply safe. But listen, I started smelling something burning around the studio, like during the ad read, right?

[Mike Wright]

We thought we were going down.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, first you guys, I said, anybody else smell that? Everybody says, no, I don't smell that. So then you tell me I'm stroking out.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I asked if you were smelling toast. You said you were, and that's.

[Andy Holloway]

I didn't know. So that's a thing.

[Jason Moore]

That's a sign. If you smell burned toast, you're having a stroke. I believe either that's in the back of my mind.

[Andy Holloway]

Were you smelling toast during the Pinocchio joke earlier?

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, here we go. Let's get into the truth. We're starting with the wide receiver position today. Thursday. Wide receiver truth. Very, very interesting. Yeah, that's a.

[Jason Moore]

That's part of the truth is that wide receivers sucked this year.

[Andy Holloway]

It was very different from last year. Last year, you had. Let me break it down. You had a higher total score for the number one overall receiver this year.

[Jason Moore]

Michael Thomas was a beast.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. 300 fantasy points last year. The number one overall receiver was Tyree Kill at 284. But the number two wide receiver was Chris Godwin at 233 fantasy points.

[Jason Moore]

Whoops.

[Andy Holloway]

There were nine total receivers last year that scored more than that. So you had what Hill Hopkins, Adams, Brown, Julio Michael, Thomas, Adam Thielen, Mike Evans, the top juju Last year, the.

[Mike Wright]

Top end of the quarter was not there this year.

[Jason Moore]

You just think about the fact that the number two wide receiver this year would have been the number ten wide receiver last year. And the top end talent was not there because of touchdowns. Touchdowns did not get all vultured. I mean, and really, you know, we're trying to get to the truth here. Last year was a pretty up year for wide receiver touchdowns. So, you know, I think you take these two years, you look at them together and probably the year prior to last year and you kind of get a good idea going into 2020 for, you know, what the expectation is for a wide receiver. But this season you didn't win based on wide receiver touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

NFL wide receivers caught 287 less total passes, fewer.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, thank you, Mike.

[Mike Wright]

Look, someone was going to do it. I might as well be that guy.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I blame. I was reading that's probably from our editor, so I don't know how to use that word.

[Mike Wright]

Blaming him.

[Andy Holloway]

52 fewer touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

Nice save.

[Andy Holloway]

And 414 fewer fantasy points.

[Mike Wright]

Great save.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So you know, That's a lot. 52 fewer touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

That is a lot.

[Andy Holloway]

So we're going to start walking through these wide receivers, their fantasy finishes, their consistency score. Jason, do you want to break down a little bit of how we compile consistency data?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So we take a look at great games being those games. And this is all based on half point scoring. That's kind of the baller's preferred metric. So if you're in a full point, this will be a little less. If you're in a standard, a little more. But a great game for a wide receiver. And we tried to get this about to be the top five type of game on the week is more than 22 fantasy points. A good game is in that double digits more than 10 fantasy points. And bus games aren't just under 10. There's kind of that gap where it's like, meh, it didn't crush you, but you know, it certainly wasn't a good game. But the bust games are under seven points. That's like they're outside the top 50. Those games crushed you in fantasy. Those games are games where when you started a guy, you know, people get credit for winning you weeks, but they don't get enough credit for outright losing you weeks.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

And sometimes there are players and we'll get into them that lost you a week because they did jack squat.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And so our consistency score Is proprietary. Takes a look of all of these different percentages and factors in, you know, top 24 percentages and all sorts of things to just say we're going to take a look from the number one wide receiver down as far as we get today, and based on how many fantasy points they scored. But then what is their consistency rank? Were they a consistently good wide receiver or were they not? Where would they rank based on that score?

[Andy Holloway]

All right, so number one overall, we mentioned it. It's Michael Thomas. He was the number one overall fantasy wide receiver. He was also number one by way of consistency rank. Not a surprise. He had eight games that qualified as great week winning weeks. He had six good weeks. He had one actual bust week. And so one thing, I don't know if you mentioned it, missed games do not count against your consistency score. So if a player was injured and they missed a few games, we're looking at the games that they played in totality so that you understand that when you started them, this is the outcome you received as a fantasy football player.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Because if they were fully injured and did not suit up, you didn't start them.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

They couldn't be inconsistent for you because they weren't out there. But you have Michael Thomas here. So what are some takeaways from this majestic season? 149 receptions, 1725 yards and nine touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

He was really good and consistent and great. I mean, he. Look, you know, we talked about the wide receiver two this year would have been the top 10. Last year, that gap you're talking about, he scored 300 fantasy points in half point scoring. The number two was 233 points. That's outlandish, that gap. So he was the most consistent based on our metric and based on just everyone's experience, pretty much every game was good. He had two bad games and one of them was week 17 didn't even matter. So there's not much to say. When you break the NFL record for receptions, you have to be consistent.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Michael Thomas would have outscored Odell Beckham Jr. If we only counted Michael Thomas's home games this year.

[Mike Wright]

That's wild, man.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a little bit of a compliment to Michael Thomas and an insult to Odell Beckham.

[Jason Moore]

But it's great.

[Andy Holloway]

Incredible.

[Mike Wright]

What? I did not project this. And I honestly, I did not see this coming. For Michael Thomas has jumped from 125 and 1400 to nearly 150 and over 1700 receiving yards.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Because probabilities on the other side of that equation that's why I didn't like Juju. You didn't think his numbers could go up? It was hard to go up for my Thomas.

[Mike Wright]

So the big question for Thomas then, he's the number one wide receiver. He was the number one advantage at the wide receiver position this year. Also the most consistent. Are you just slotting him in to your number one in your rankings heading into 2020?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I am absolutely doing it.

[Jason Moore]

Assuming that Drew Brees is the quarterback, he should be the number one because his. His ability with Teddy Bridgewater.

[Mike Wright]

He was just fine.

[Jason Moore]

He was just fine, but not like number one wide receiver.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, what's unique about Thomas is he's completely unstoppable. And it was proven through the duration of the season when he went from the Bridgewater days and being in the, you know, 13, 17, 22. Bring Breeze back. Don't have other weapons outside of Jared Cook.

[Jason Moore]

Really?

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, is there anybody that you could rely on outside of Cook? Not really.

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

Camara out of the backfield and then he goes into an onslaught of top 10 performances over the back half of the year. You can't scheme against him. So Jason's right. If consistency of the offense stays the same, Breeze, Peyton, those pieces, why wouldn't you just put him at number one?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it would be really hard. I mean, that's not to guarantee he finishes there, but when you are both the most consistent and the overall number one, there's no reason you should say, well, I don't think you know, his true catch rate this last year at 96%. What is.

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Jason Moore]

So he had 180 targets. 155 of those were deemed catchable. So 100. Thank you. 155 catchable targets. He caught 149 of them. I mean, that's impossible.

[Mike Wright]

It's amazing.

[Jason Moore]

He's making Larry Fitzgerald look like a bad wide. Like that guy catches nothing.

[Andy Holloway]

Drew Brees catches a sticky football or throws a sticky football. Chris Godwin at number two. Let's move on. Chris Godwin came in as I was. You know, when you look at the end of the season, I was kind of surprised he ended up at number two. The gap between saying Michael Thomas's name and what Godwin ended up being seems massive. Jason, he was still the number two most consistent wide receiver as well.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So spoiler here. The top three guys were also the three most consistent. And that makes, you know, it makes a lot of sense. You would hope as a fantasy player that all the top players, if you just go top to bottom, that top to bottom, they're the same consistency score and that's, you know, that's kind of true for a lot of players. But that's why this truth series is focusing on which ones are the real outliers who were less consistent than their score or later on who was more consistent than what their fantasy finish was. Chris Godwin here, you know, he did it on a regular basis. He only busted 7% of his games, which is a great number for a wide receiver. He was just very good. And I think if anybody out there that had Chris Godwin, he was a, he was a special git because he wasn't, you know, Michael Thomas was drafted as a top five, top six wide receiver, right? Chris Godwin wasn't and he finished up there.

[Andy Holloway]

So he was just phenomenal 36% of the time. He was a weak winning type of player, 64% in the good category. Obviously. He missed weeks 16 and 17 with injury. He was pretty impressive. I think he was one of those players people wanted to be behind in the off season but weren't sure with the Mike Evans, he was the hot.

[Mike Wright]

Value, breakout type of wide receiver and yeah, he was very consistent. He did pad like the top end numbers to get up to number two basically with those two games where he was outrageous in week four against the Rams and then later on against Atlanta. Much better on the road, much better.

[Andy Holloway]

Against good defenses as well.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it must be a, you know, Jameis turned to the easy, the easier targets.

[Jason Moore]

Well, we saw this with the Aryan system coming in. This was kind of projected in the sense that the slot wide receiver and area system for a decade has been extremely used. So Chris Godwin going into next year will be, you know, a top 10 draft pick at wide receiver and I think he probably should be. There's a lot of question marks around the quarterback, right? Who's the quarterback? Is it Jameis? Is it someone they're going to try to draft or bring in? Or, you know, is it Tom Brady? Oh, I have a new destination for Brady, of course.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, let's hear it.

[Jason Moore]

The Colts.

[Andy Holloway]

What do you mean that's a new one? I've been saying that in the studio forever.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, well, it's new for me.

[Andy Holloway]

When you came in and you said your little weird Titans thing, I was like, dude, the Colts are the team that make the most sense.

[Jason Moore]

So the Titans made sense until they got as far as they've gotten. Now, now it's gonn. Now it's going to be tough sledding.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you Think we tried to warn you. Chris Godwin though slowed down a little bit in the second half in terms of those impressive performances.

[Mike Wright]

And he's like, he's just so fringy with his not bust game.

[Jason Moore]

I know because he's got two that really were.

[Mike Wright]

I mean we have to make decisions here. You have to make an actual cable. This is the point threshold because his two of his three bad games where he was wide receiver 42 eight points.

[Jason Moore]

Which is above seven.

[Mike Wright]

He made it. And then the other one wide receiver 54 seven points. I mean, all right.

[Jason Moore]

He's so he, he's.

[Andy Holloway]

He's throwing the line points per game from week 10 on for context is about where I have Godwin in reality, which is the wide receiver eight. I mean I think five to eight is a much safer place to put them. I don't think any of us are going to go out there and put. Are you going to draft Godwin over Julio Jones? Are you going to draft Godwin over DeAndre Hopkins?

[Mike Wright]

I mean are the big one. Are you drafting Godwin over Mike Evans?

[Jason Moore]

That's a great question.

[Andy Holloway]

And I won't.

[Jason Moore]

I will. And it's based on what this episode is. It's based on. I realize that Evans next year Evans very, very well might score more fantasy points than Chris Godwin. But the consistency of how those points come I think will be more in Chris Godwin's favor because of his role as that slot possession guy. And I would rather have the consistency than the big blow ups and the.

[Andy Holloway]

Busts and some of that might be team composition decision for your, you know, for the big games versus what else you have at the position for your roster. Julio Jones comes in at number three. He was also the third most consistent fantasy wide receiver. As Jason said, the top three guys, they were consistent as well. 33% great games, 53% good games. One bus game, four in that meh in between category. 99 receptions, 1394 yards and six touchdowns, 157 targets. Pretty much the same statistical output at home as on the road. And you know, Julio being Julio, if.

[Jason Moore]

We had a consistency metric for seasons, which we don't currently, Julio would be. I mean he has to be like number one because he just. This is what you get from Julio. We know what we. You just. You wish, you pray and you hope for more touchdowns. They don't come. They don't come. But goodness gracious, I mean year after year after year, Julio Jones gets it done. His listen to these yards over the last few years. This was A real down year. It was 1394 yards.

[Mike Wright]

1400.

[Jason Moore]

Incredible loser. The last several years he only played 15 games, though. Yes, that's true. 1600 yards, 1400 yards. 1400 yards, 1800 yards, 1600 yards. These are. That's outlandish. And I don't see it changing. He's under big money contract going forward. He looked great through the completion of the season. So Julio is.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, the Falcons threw the ball more than any team in football. Number one. So I mean, it's like when Calvin was out there year after year with Stafford. As long as Matt Ryan and Julio Jones stay connected, is there any reason it's going to change?

[Jason Moore]

No. And I would. I would draft Julio, you know, over Godwin for sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, and Julio always has the opportunity to be the number one guy as long as he's in that situation. If you drafted him, were you happy with Julio? I think the answer has to be yes.

[Mike Wright]

It's a B. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

You drafted him as a top three guy. He finished as a top three guy.

[Mike Wright]

Most, I'd say. I say mostly because of when you had a run here, weeks 10 or 9 through 14, and that includes his buy where he was basically the wide receiver 47. I mean, when it was crunch time.

[Jason Moore]

Well, that's because he only played in three games. He played, I mean, three of five weeks. You're going to have a bad ranking.

[Andy Holloway]

I get. I remember when that time you can't.

[Mike Wright]

Say, well, it's because he didn't play. He hurt your team.

[Andy Holloway]

Independent, you might have been upset. But when you consider it relative to all the other wide receivers in their output and what we've seen this year with the down year and the fact that, look, Julio ended up as consistency ranked number three.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

It's hard to complain when you look at all the other positions or the other players at the position. To me, but there was a period of time when we were kind of like, well, you know, after the bye week, where's real Julio? Catch a touchdown pass, please. All right, number four. Here's where it gets messy, messy, messy.

[Mike Wright]

We got a week 17 patter.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true. That's true. Because it was not.

[Jason Moore]

He doesn't feel like the wide receiver on the year.

[Andy Holloway]

This is why the truth episodes matter. Cooper cup is the number four overall fantasy receiver.

[Mike Wright]

We need to just quadruple check this. This seems so unlikely.

[Andy Holloway]

The consistency rank for Cooper Cup, 14. Not outside the top 12.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, and you felt it, right? Because you look at those first five weeks. He was extremely consistent during that time and you thought you had the number one wide receiver. I remember a lot of conversation going between Cooper cup and DeAndre Hopkins because Hopkins started the year so slow and Cooper cup was so good so far and away the number one wide receiver in Fantasy. That and he had, he had been basically that. When you looked at his past with the Rams when he was healthy on a per game basis. But from week six on, the dude wrecked your team. If you traded for him after that week five, you lost, you didn't make the playoffs because you gave up a lot to get him. And then he was basically, you know, he had two good games the rest of the way. If you're not playing in week 17, he was, I mean, he crushed you.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Wide receiver 33 from weeks six through 12.

[Mike Wright]

And that's only because he had a game where he put up over 200 yards against Cincinnati. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. So he also had a massive disparity when it came to playing against top 16 and bottom 16 defenses. We're talking about an output of just 9.21 fantasy points against upper echelon defenses and an output of 18.74 points against bottom half defenses. Something that he happened to play more of in the beginning of the year, distorting his fantasy totals. Will he be drafted as a top 10 wide receiver next year?

[Mike Wright]

No, he shouldn't.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I don't think you can trust the Rams offense to be what we thought it was coming into this season, what it's been the last several years. Is he a good wide receiver? Absolutely. Will he finish and be very important for fantasy next year? Yeah. But a top 10 wide receiver is going to be hard for any one of these Rams because you know, we'll get to Robert woods probably the next episode. But he was more consistent than Cooper Cup. So, you know, who would you want going into next year? Touchdown upside is probably on Cooper cup, but he really disappeared and. And you saw some of these problems even in snap counts where it was like they changed up things to all.

[Andy Holloway]

Of a sudden Tyler Higby, focal point of the offense.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, cup was one of only what, three wide or three total pass catchers to reach double digits at the position in terms of touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, that is true. He had 10. What? You know, usually you've got those years year after year after year where it's like the number one wide receiver, 14, 15 touchdowns. This year it was 11, 10 and 10 were the only double digit touchdown receivers and one of those was a tight end and Mark Andrews. So yuck.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And that. Well, I mean, normally that is the more difficult to predict number in terms of output. You know, year to year that's going to fluctuate. He's averaged Cooper Cup. That is a touchdown every 9.3 catches over three year career. So, you know, maybe a little bit more stable in that department inside the red zone than others. But when you have 10 touchdowns and you end up at consistency rank, 14 is not good. That is a warning sign for future draft capital expenditures.

[Jason Moore]

And I think we need to remember the, you know, do. Do our best to remember the good, bad splits. You know, the. Because home road splits, good and bad defensive splits. Those are things I think that going into next year, a lot of those times those are. Those are sticky. That's the game plan of the offense. That's how certain players perform on the home or on the road. And remember that going into next year's.

[Andy Holloway]

Draft, DeAndre Hopkins, at number five, was actually the fourth most consistent fantasy wide receiver. After a very rough start week one, he was the number five overall. And then he went 57, 41, 52 in the world. Freaked out, panicked. Same thing that they did with Mike Evans. But DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, pretty good players. 104 receptions, 1165 yards, seven touchdowns, 150 targets. You know, when you look at the season as a whole, Hopkins obviously got it together. He was only great in 27% of his games.

[Mike Wright]

That's what I wanted to highlight is the fact that Hopkins was good. Hopkins was. Was very solid. 67% of his games were good. He was. If you, once he got out of though that slump at the beginning of the season where he was busting horrifically, then he was, he was good. But much like the, the conversation of were you happy that you paid up for Julio Jones? Were you happy that you paid up for Hopkins when he was just good, Jay, like, yeah, I mean, where are you with Hopkins? Moving. Moving forward.

[Jason Moore]

Moving forward. He's, you know, a top three wide receiver. Still going.

[Mike Wright]

So he'll still be up there for you.

[Jason Moore]

Absolutely. I believe the talent, the quarterback, the.

[Mike Wright]

Offense to like Thomas. Julio Hopkins.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, exactly. I think those, those are the guys that I'm most interested in going into next year. He, you know, he proved that he is what we thought he was. But when you get off those first four weeks having only one good game and then bad, bad, bad, you feel those. Because that's the time of year you start the year undefeated, you know, and when, when you're one in three as a fantasy owner, you're blaming Hopkins, you care far less about the consistency that came after that.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I agree with you. The emotional impact of his slow start and beyond that, through 11 weeks where you drafted Hopkins and then you play 11 weeks of fantasy football and you get two top 10 performances from him in 11 weeks. It wasn't what you hoped or expected. I would be a little disappointed if I drafted him to be what he was the previous two years. Wide receiver 2, wide receiver 1 end up at 5 in the end. He might have cost you a little bit this year in that output, but.

[Mike Wright]

You'Re moving forward with him that.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, he's drafting him more.

[Mike Wright]

Like the, like a top three guy like Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

I look at it very similarly to the Matt Ryan, Julio Jones connection. As long as Deshaun Watson and Hopkins are both there. Hopkins is two years younger than Julio Jones. You should get very, very consistent production from Hopkins.

[Mike Wright]

What if there is a shakeup and Bill O'Brien is removed?

[Andy Holloway]

I remain. I remain unconcerned due to just target volume.

[Jason Moore]

How could that happen? I mean, they want to play.

[Mike Wright]

How could it happen?

[Jason Moore]

They won a playoff game. I can't.

[Andy Holloway]

This is the NFL players. Coaches get fired in the playoffs.

[Mike Wright]

They. They barely won a playoff game once. They were down 16 points at home and then they blew a 24 point lead.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, but they had a 24 point lead.

[Andy Holloway]

Like, is that what Bill O'Brien says in the room?

[Jason Moore]

Yes, that's 100.

[Andy Holloway]

No, no, no, look, right here, we.

[Jason Moore]

Got off to a strong start. He.

[Mike Wright]

I don't think he'll get fired. But for a guy who has been on the hot seat now for what feels like three years, despite having like pretty solid success in the NFL, coaches.

[Andy Holloway]

Like that get fired when, you know, the pieces look like they should win. I mean, Jason Garrett didn't make the playoffs.

[Mike Wright]

Well, who was it? Norv?

[Jason Moore]

Yes, Norv Turner for the Chargers. Yes. He was excellent. He was a multi, you know, double.

[Andy Holloway]

Digit win coach before that.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

But the difference is that they had super bowl expectations year in, year out, and he couldn't get them further in the playoffs. I don't think there are super bowl expectations.

[Andy Holloway]

They're close though. When you, when you put Watson and then Laramie Tunzel, you go spin.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they went all in.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, mind you, he's their GM too, so that's. He can't fire himself in that capacity. But with you, when you have Hopkins, Bots and Tunzel, you acquire Duke Johnson.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And then you look a Super bowl or bust. I don't think he's getting fired, but I think that. But next year, if they regress, which is a possibility, could be out the door. All right, here's where it starts to get very interesting at the position.

[Mike Wright]

Let's get weird.

[Andy Holloway]

Kenny Gollad is the number six overall wide fantasy wide receiver.

[Mike Wright]

Kenny Golla.

[Andy Holloway]

But it didn't. Kenny G. It wasn't as smooth as I think it could have been. And a few bumps. I blame us. Not us three, but how dare you. Us as fantasy owners. And let me tell you why. Kenny Golladay finished at number six. He was the ninth most consistent, so he wasn't quite as consistent as his fantasy finish. But he still had good games 63% of the time. He had 31% great games, which was more than DeAndre Hopkins. When I say I blame us, I think it's like belief in the fantasy football universe in Kenny Galladay because some of those good games, many of those good games came on the benches of fantasy owners due to Driscoll, when David.

[Mike Wright]

Blau was the QB and he was playing against Chicago.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, but we would never have benched. No matter who the quarterback is, you're never benching DeAndre Hopkins or Julio Jones. Right?

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Golladay wasn't in that category in your mind whatsoever. So these good games, this consistency, you didn't benefit from it.

[Jason Moore]

You didn't. But what we need to do when we're talking about the truth. The truth is he was the number six wide receiver with terrible quarterback play once Stafford was out. And going into next year, that's, you know, we needed this history. The reason we wouldn't bench DeAndre Hopkins or Julio Jones is because we have the history of them being great. We don't have that history with Kenny Golladay until now. Now we know, like, he is a, an extremely valuable weapon. He's a great wide receiver. He's got, you know, some of those skills that can't be schemed away, like height and speed. You just can't. You can't make him shorter as a defense. And so he can go up and get those jump balls around the end zone. Led the league in receiving touchdowns this year for wide receivers. And next year, with Stafford coming back, I will draft Kenny Galladay for sure as a top 10 wide receiver for next season.

[Andy Holloway]

He did all that on 116 targets.

[Mike Wright]

That's where it's tough, man. 116 targets, only 65 recept.

[Andy Holloway]

If this was an old school. Vincent Jackson year, 65, 11, 90 and 11.

[Mike Wright]

Because if he catches three fewer touchdowns if you're looking at 65, 11, 90.

[Andy Holloway]

And 8, you're not talking about him in this top three.

[Mike Wright]

That's a really big difference.

[Andy Holloway]

But then, you know, to fill in for some of those unpredictable things like touchdowns, getting Matthew Stafford back and not having Blau Driscoll experience is going to help a lot.

[Mike Wright]

Driscoll.

[Jason Moore]

So Kenny Galladay this year played eight games with Stafford, eight games without Stafford, scored four more fantasy points a game. Not surprisingly at all with Stafford. If he gets the whole season with Stafford, I think he's going to be an excellent.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you taking him? Is he a top 10 locked and loaded for you next year?

[Jason Moore]

So the way that I look at it right now is. I think so. Now, obviously as we get into the draft season, we're stating these guys out for the UDK. Maybe he drops slightly out of the top 10. I do think he's closer to the 10 side, but he's got the talent and I think he's got the quarterback to absolutely finish again as a top 10 wide receiver. So I assume he will be there.

[Mike Wright]

For me because you're going to have to pay. You will have to pay up for Kenny Gollady. I'm looking it up. Last year he was being drafted as wide receiver. 19 right at the round, like the back of the fourth round. Kenny Golladay will be what? Back of the third round. So you better be sure of what you're getting.

[Jason Moore]

Here's what I'm sure. Here's what I'm sure of. I'm sure I'm getting a very, very good wide receiver who's going to get his opportunities. And I'm fine with that.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Number seven is devonte Parker. Yes. Devonte Parker.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Number seven in fantasy finish. Number six.

[Mike Wright]

Number one in our hearts.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Eventually took a while. Devonte. Number six inconsistency.

[Mike Wright]

Rosen. He had a Rosen problem.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, sure. This year, Mike, I'm talking about like the last few years.

[Mike Wright]

Well, it took a while not thinking about that. He had a B hole problem.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true.

[Mike Wright]

And there wasn't enough preparation H in the world. No. To get rid of that problem.

[Andy Holloway]

No. Adam Gays is a vicious infection.

[Mike Wright]

Bring a donut. Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

That's not embarrassing to sit on those at all. 72 for 1202 and 9 on 128 targets do work. Parker.

[Jason Moore]

It's not fair that he is. The consistency rank six, which is great. It's not fair because the first three weeks were with Rosen and if you take those out, he was the Consistency rank number three. You're talking about true elite. You know, season here from devonte Parker. He was just phenomenal.

[Andy Holloway]

So he's in a tougher position predictively.

[Mike Wright]

Because week one was Fitzpatrick.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true.

[Mike Wright]

Just to be fair.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, all right, that's fair.

[Andy Holloway]

So just kind of illustrating his season. He was great 13% of the time, good 56% of the time, busted 13%. He was better against bottom 16 pass defenses, quite a bit better. 16 fantasy points per game versus 10.

[Jason Moore]

I have an update. All right, sir, if you take out weeks two and three leaving in week one, he is consistency ranked number three.

[Mike Wright]

Oh yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So it's still there, still true.

[Andy Holloway]

But they're the consistency is what I'm concerned about. Are you going to get Ryan Fitzpatrick back? Are you going to have the target focus that devonte Parker received after Preston Williams left the lineup? Is Miami going to take a step forward and how do you value devonte Parker with a rookie quarterback? Everything you saw on the field, when you combine the analytics with the eye test and seeing him repeatedly time after time, make competitive catches down the field, Second most routes run in the league, fifth most deep targets, third most air yards. All those things are normally indicative of long term success for a wide receiver. If you had just put all these numbers out there and made it Mike Evans, I'd believe everything about it. Do you believe in him moving forward regardless of the quarterback?

[Jason Moore]

No, not regardless of the quarterback. I think a rookie quarterback will make a drastic change going into the ultimate draft kit. He will certainly have a very high risk rating because of all of the things you mentioned, the quarterback situation. You know, my hope and a lot of people's hope is that TUA because if TUA were to be the drafted quarterback, I would have more confidence because I don't think anybody's looking to rush to a, to the field, you know, too early as opposed to, you know, if they get some.

[Andy Holloway]

There's only one man that can rush him to the field and his name is Ryan Fitzpatrick.

[Jason Moore]

That's, that's fair. But you also bring up a really valuable point in Preston Williams and that injury.

[Mike Wright]

I pulled up those splits.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I have them as well. And they're not small, right?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So you're talking a target jump, three full targets of a game up to nearly any like nearly double digit targets without Preston Williams. 50 yards a game more.

[Jason Moore]

He had nine points.

[Mike Wright]

Now granted in this split you have to factor in Josh Rosen was a part of those Preston Williams games. So it devonte Parker, man, he's gonna be really, really difficult when. If his ADP is any. Anything remotely high, like if he jumps into the fourth round, fifth round makes it a little bit easier. But he was so great and he finished so high.

[Andy Holloway]

You will be able to.

[Mike Wright]

ADP will be up there.

[Andy Holloway]

See, I don't. I was. My point was, I think if you buy in next year on devonte Parker, I don't think you're gonna have to pay. Like, I don't think people are going to go draft devonte Parker next year. You think they're going to take him above a Keenan Allen? You think they're going to take him above Mike Evans?

[Mike Wright]

No, but he. When people pull up last year's rankings and they see, oh, devonte Parker, the number seven wide receiver, he's not going to drop to a place where you're. Where the, where the risk mitigation goes kind of out the window statistically.

[Jason Moore]

Parker was very good this year, obviously very consistent. But the reason that I will be drafting Parker next year is the eyeball test. He was actually good. He would win jump balls that seemed like you couldn't win. His catch radius was all of a sudden very good. He would make some plays where he had enormous separation and Ryan Fitzpatrick can hit him, you know, open. So to me, I think Devonte Parker leveled up.

[Andy Holloway]

Is he a top 10 receiver? Because I think he gets drafted outside the top 12 next year. Yeah, I think he's in the top 12.

[Jason Moore]

I think he gets drafted outside of the top 12 as well. And if that is the case, then I'm in with Parker because I think the upside is a top five type of performance.

[Andy Holloway]

It's going to be very difficult. I'm not ready to make a conclusion myself on devonte Parker, to be honest with you. I don't think there's anything to be gained in making that conclusion on him. And three, you know, very short window of elite play, unknown quarterback, tough team, tough division. I'm going to wait and get as much info as I can and hopefully, hopefully Fitzpatrick is back. So we do have some predictability here with Park.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. If, you know, the best case scenario here is that they use their super high. What are they? Are they in the number five? Yeah, they're six, I think.

[Mike Wright]

All right, well, we've got three guesses.

[Jason Moore]

Let's find out if they use their high pick, you know, on an offensive lineman or someone other than a quarterback, then you're so much. If they use it on Justin Herbert or someone that appears to be the future. I don't Think you can trust Parker with a rookie?

[Mike Wright]

Dolphins at five.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, they're at five. The hard part is, is even if Fitzpatrick comes back, you know, we have a long history of Fitzpatrick bringing you mid season tumult at the quarterback position where he's, you know, he's coming out of the lineup after a few bad losses and the team wants to see progress and all of a sudden somebody else is in the lineup. So you don't have the stability that other.

[Jason Moore]

So you're not drafted. Mike Evans. Well, no, I'm just saying like that.

[Andy Holloway]

There's a big difference though. James Winston's been the quarterback for a long time.

[Jason Moore]

I know.

[Mike Wright]

Winston's either back on a new deal or he's franchised and he should play through it.

[Andy Holloway]

Keenan Allen came in at number eight, but he was the 16th most consistent fantasy wide receiver altogether. That makes Keenan Allen's year feel very disappointing. I doubt many people out there after week seven or so, really, I mean, he just had a really rough stretch. From weeks four through nine. He was, he busted 19% of the time. He only had 13% great games. That was just two great games on the season where he won you a week. It was just a weird year for Kenan Allen. I don't doubt that he's a great player. But Philip Rivers.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's the problem.

[Andy Holloway]

Part of the problem. And I don't know if Keenan, I don't know if Keenan's career arc is going to supply me with more top 10 years.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So, you know, you tell me you get 1200 yards and eight touchdowns and I'm thrilled. But the way they came were very.

[Andy Holloway]

Boom, bust, Especially with six touchdowns, only five bus games. Yeah, that would, that would be even less than what you said.

[Jason Moore]

That would be less. That's correct, yeah. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, if you gave me eight, that'd be better.

[Jason Moore]

It's just the way they came. And going forward, you don't even know if Phil Rivers is going to be back.

[Andy Holloway]

You definitely don't know. No, you don't want it.

[Jason Moore]

Media as a whole, that's been a common storyline. I mean, that's why there was such an emotional, you know, press conferences. Are they going to bring Philip Rivers back? I assume he'll be back, but he's not getting younger, he's not getting better. I mean, is there a world where Philip Rivers just all of a sudden resurrects his career and is better than he was this season by a significant margin?

[Mike Wright]

Not like age 38, 39?

[Andy Holloway]

I think Mike Williams is a really good player. He's a downfield threat. I think Hunter Henry is a very good player. I think Austin Eckler's involvement in the passing game as a focal point is a change in the offense. From what we've seen before. There was a time when Los Angeles could do nothing but rely on Keenan Allen for every underneath route, for every.

[Mike Wright]

Those were great days.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, it's just not that way anymore where predictability wise, you can see it, he's number 16 and that's probably where he ends up. 15, 16 and where I'm ranking him next year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, hopefully you traded Keenan Allen for Hopkins because he kind of did a reverse Hopkins here.

[Jason Moore]

I would assume that next year Keenan will be drafted higher than where I would like to get him.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not comfortable with him being my wide receiver one.

[Jason Moore]

No, I agree. I'm not.

[Andy Holloway]

Is he?

[Mike Wright]

No, I don't think so.

[Jason Moore]

And I'm guessing he'll be drafted as a top 12 wide receiver, so I stand by my previous.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, no, no, I think you're right. So we'll press pause there. We'll get into more wide receiver truth. Some very interesting names. I lied to you, Mike. I lied to you. Get the full Mike Wright vs. Amari Cooper experience on the next episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Make sure you subscribe. Check out our [e-mail] if you want a little bonus episode every week with some mailbag questions. And it's a good time over there at Join the Foot. I've heard really good things. Oh, man, I'm busy. Bus number Amari Cooper talk is coming soon. Anything else you guys want to add to the look at his splits? Oh, gosh. Stay tuned for Thursday. Oh, thank you for listening, subscribing, reviewing. We appreciate it.

[Mike Wright]

See you next time. Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, Mike's gonna have a field day.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter @the ffballers.

[Andy Holloway]

In Foot Clan. Remember, with Simplisafe you get comprehensive enterprise level security for your own home. If there's a break in, no burgles. Simplisafe uses real video evidence to give police an eyewitness account of the crime. It costs just 50 cents a day. Visit simplisafe.com footballers. You'll get free shipping and a 60 day risk free trial. You've got nothing to lose. Go now to simplisafe. Com Footballers so that they know that our show sent you. That's Simplisafe com footballers.