Top 10 Countdown + Stash the Smash

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode Title: Top 10 Countdown + Stash the Smash
Release Date: July 6, 2019
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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Introduction and Setup

The episode kicks off with light-hearted banter among the hosts, reflecting their camaraderie and setting an engaging tone for the discussion. Mike Wright humorously compares fantasy football preparation to building a sturdy house, emphasizing the importance of using reliable draft resources:

Mike Wright [00:01]: "The foolish man built his house upon the sand and the wise man built his house upon the rock... your foundation for an incredible season will be solidified."

This analogy underscores the podcast’s commitment to providing listeners with robust fantasy football insights.

Top 10 Countdown

The core of the episode revolves around a detailed Top 10 countdown of fantasy football players. Each player is analyzed based on their performance, average draft position (ADP), risk ratings, and potential impact for the upcoming season.

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Number 10: Todd Gurley (Los Angeles Rams)

Overview:
Todd Gurley is recognized for his outstanding performance in previous seasons, yet there's growing concern about his sustainability due to potential workload reductions and injury risks.

Key Points:

• Performance Metrics: Last season, Gurley amassed 17 rushing touchdowns in 14 games, showcasing his explosive potential.

  Mike Wright [15:52]: "17 touchdowns on the ground in 14 games."

• Risk Assessment: With an ADP in the middle of the second round and a high risk rating of 6/10, there's apprehension about Gurley's long-term health and workload management.

  Mike Wright [16:04]: "How does the pendulum swing too far on Gurley?"

• Strategic Considerations: While Gurley remains a lucrative pick, the hosts debate whether his peak performance is sustainable or if his value might wane as efficiency declines.

  Jason Moore [17:03]: "I think the days of his dominant number one are just done."

Conclusion:
Gurley is a high-reward but high-risk option. Fantasy managers should weigh his explosive touchdown potential against the likelihood of reduced usage and injury concerns.

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Number 9: David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals)

Overview:
David Johnson has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly after the Cardinals revamped their offensive strategy, making him a valuable asset despite past inconsistencies.

Key Points:

• Improved Performance: Post-coaching changes, Johnson improved his receiving yards and attempts, indicating better integration into the offense.

  Jason Moore [23:53]: "His yards per carry went from 3.16 up to almost 4."

• Consistency and Role: As a pass-catching back, Johnson offers dual-threat capabilities, but his value is closely tied to the offensive line's performance and overall team dynamics.

  Mike Wright [22:32]: "He is the workhorse, 258 carries last year, 50 receptions on the worst possible offense."

• Risk Factors: The primary concern revolves around the effectiveness of the Cardinals' offense and how much it can sustain Johnson's involvement without diminishing his fantasy output.

  Jason Moore [24:52]: "If the offense collapses, then David Johnson will not return at 105 overall."

Conclusion:
David Johnson remains a solid pick, especially in leagues that reward receptions, provided the Cardinals' offense maintains its productivity.

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Number 8: Davante Adams (Green Bay Packers)

Overview:
Davante Adams is lauded for his exceptional performance and reliability, making him a top-tier wide receiver with minimal risk.

Key Points:

• Consistent Targeting: Adams boasts 111 receptions, 13 touchdowns, and 169 targets, highlighting his integral role in the Packers' offense.

  Mike Wright [22:12]: "111 receptions, 13 touchdowns, 169 targets, which is unbelievable."

• Low Risk Rating: With a low risk rating, Adams is considered a safe and high-reward selection in drafts.

  Mike Wright [26:17]: "His risk rating is low because this guy gets targeted over and over and over again."

• Potential Downsides: The only minor concern is his concussion history, which could potentially limit his playing time.

  Jason Moore [30:09]: "He's gotten a few big hits to the head where if he suffered another concussion this year, he could be missing major time."

Conclusion:
Davante Adams is a highly reliable and high-performing wide receiver, making him a staple in many fantasy lineups with minimal downside.

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Number 7: Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons)

Overview:
Julio Jones remains a dominant wide receiver with strong performance metrics, though his ADP reflects some market uncertainty.

Key Points:

• Performance Consistency: Over the past five years, Jones has consistently ranked between second and eighth at his position, with impressive yardage and touchdown stats.

  Mike Wright [30:26]: "Julio Jones, finishing eighth, second, sixth, fourth and fifth at the position."

• Team Offense Dynamics: The Falcons' stable offensive scheme, combined with an underrated quarterback like Matt Ryan, provides Jones with ample opportunities to excel.

  Mike Wright [31:39]: "The Atlanta offense has predictable pieces to it. An underrated quarterback in Matt Ryan."

• Draft Strategy: While Adams might be favored, Julio's safe floor based on high target volume and yardage makes him a valuable pick, especially in scenarios where touchdown consistency is key.

  Jason Moore [33:32]: "He's just a matter of when it comes to the safe play volume over touchdowns."

Conclusion:
Julio Jones is a dependable wide receiver with high target volume and yardage, making him an excellent choice for consistent fantasy points.

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Number 6: DeAndre Hopkins (Houston Texans)

Overview:
DeAndre Hopkins is regarded as one of the elite wide receivers in fantasy football, known for his high target share and touchdown potential.

Key Points:

• Elite Performance: Hopkins led the league with 115 receptions, 1500+ yards, and 11 touchdowns last season, establishing himself as a top-tier receiver.

  Mike Wright [34:23]: "11 touchdowns, 163 targets, 1500 plus yards, 115 receptions."

• Risk Assessment: Even with team dynamics that could influence his target distribution, Hopkins' consistent performance and skill set keep his risk rating low.

  Mike Wright [36:16]: "Hopkins is universally seen as the number one wide receiver."

• Potential Challenges: The primary concern is the potential for other receivers like QT and Will Fuller to vie for targets, which could dilute Hopkins' fantasy output slightly.

  Jason Moore [35:41]: "There are players... worth a target from Deshaun Watson."

Conclusion:
DeAndre Hopkins remains a premier wide receiver choice in fantasy drafts, offering a high ceiling with minimal risk.

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Number 5: Melvin Gordon (Los Angeles Chargers)

Overview:
Melvin Gordon is recognized for his efficiency and versatility, making him a valuable running back option despite some injury concerns.

Key Points:

• Efficiency and Versatility: Gordon achieved a remarkable 5 yards per carry last season, coupled with 10 touchdowns and 50 receptions, showcasing his dual-threat capability.

  Mike Wright [37:27]: "10 touchdowns, 50 receptions, 175 carries. Monster efficiency improvements."

• Risk Rating: With a risk rating of 4/10, concerns primarily stem from his injury history and potential workload fluctuations.

  Mike Wright [41:12]: "His risk rating is a 4 in our ultimate draft kit the last 3 years."

• Strategic Value: Gordon's high efficiency and touchdown potential make him a reliable pick, especially when considering the Chargers' offensive dynamics that favor his usage.

  Jason Moore [38:30]: "His efficiency's through the roof. He has to stay healthy."

Conclusion:
Melvin Gordon is a high-efficiency running back with significant upside, making him a strong mid-tier pick for fantasy managers seeking reliability and touchdown potential.

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Number 4: Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints)

Overview:
Alvin Kamara is celebrated for his exceptional pass-catching abilities, making him a top choice in PPR (Point Per Reception) leagues with his balanced rushing and receiving contributions.

Key Points:

• Dual Threat Capability: Kamara's 81 receptions and 709 receiving yards, along with four receiving touchdowns, make him a versatile fantasy asset.

  Mike Wright [41:17]: "81 receptions, 709 receiving yards, four touchdowns through the air."

• High Fantasy Value: In half-point leagues, his pass-catching prowess nearly double his rushing value, enhancing his overall fantasy scoring potential.

  Mike Wright [42:15]: "In a half point per reception league it's worth almost double that of a rushing attempt."

• Team Offense and Handling: The Saints' offensive strategy heavily relies on Kamara, ensuring he maintains a significant role both in the running and passing game.

  Jason Moore [43:31]: "They're going to keep doing it. If you wanted to look at a player, Alvin Kamara is every bit deserving of."

Conclusion:
Alvin Kamara is a top-tier running back, especially in PPR formats, thanks to his substantial receiving role and consistent involvement in the Saints' offensive scheme.

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Number 3: Christian McCaffrey (Carolina Panthers)

Overview:
Christian McCaffrey continues to dominate fantasy football with his unparalleled versatility, amassing impressive rushing and receiving stats that make him a perennial top pick.

Key Points:

• Outstanding Performance: McCaffrey registered 219 carries for over 1,000 yards, seven rushing touchdowns, and an additional 107 receptions for 867 yards and six receiving touchdowns.

  Mike Wright [45:31]: "219 carries over a thousand yards, seven touchdowns on the ground... 107 passes for 867 yards."

• Workhorse Role and Durability: Despite his heavy usage, McCaffrey remains remarkably durable, missing zero snaps in four games last season.

  Mike Wright [45:38]: "He missed no snaps, zero snaps in four games last year."

• Potential Risks: The primary concerns revolve around maintaining his high workload without overextending his physical limits, although his youth and physical condition mitigate these risks.

  Jason Moore [46:42]: "He's 23 years old... he's going to be able to handle it."

Conclusion:
Christian McCaffrey remains an elite fantasy running back due to his dual-threat ability and consistent involvement in both the running and passing games, although managers should monitor his workload to ensure continued performance.

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Number 2: Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys)

Overview:
Ezekiel Elliott fortifies his position as a top fantasy running back with his extensive usage in both rushing and receiving, making him a reliable and high-scoring asset.

Key Points:

• Dual Usage: Elliott utilized 300 carries for 1,400 yards and six rushing touchdowns, alongside 77 receptions, marking his significance in the Cowboys' offensive strategy.

  Mike Wright [48:36]: "300 carries, 1400 yards, six touchdowns... 77 receptions."

• High Target Share: His involvement in the passing game has increased, enhancing his PPR value significantly.

  Jason Moore [49:26]: "Christian McCaffrey had 124 targets. Zeke became a PPR guy."

• Consistency and Reliability: Elliott's performance has been steady, with minimal fluctuation in his weekly outputs, making him a dependable choice for fantasy lineups.

  Mike Wright [39:35]: "He'll never be in the fours. He's either in the threes or the fives."

• Potential Challenges: While Elliott's role is secure, any decline in the Cowboys' offensive efficiency or injuries could impact his fantasy value, although such scenarios remain unlikely given his track record.

  Jason Moore [51:05]: "He's going to get the workload. He's game script proof because of his passing work."

Conclusion:
Ezekiel Elliott stands as a top fantasy running back due to his extensive use in both the rushing and passing games, combined with his consistent performance and reliability.

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Number 1: Saquon Barkley (New York Giants)

Overview:
Saquon Barkley claims the top spot in the countdown, thanks to his explosive performance and dual-threat capability. Despite playing for a struggling offense, his individual metrics remain elite.

Key Points:

• Outstanding Output: Barkley achieved 2,000 scrimmage yards, 90 catches, and 1,300 rushing yards in his rookie season, cementing his status as a fantasy powerhouse.

  Jason Moore [47:50]: "He's the fourth player ever with 2,000 scrimmage yards, 90 catches and 1,300 rushing yards."

• Dual Threat and Explosive Plays: Barkley’s ability to excel both on the ground and through the air makes him exceptionally valuable in PPR formats.

  Mike Wright [54:48]: "If you think about the Giants offense and the QB situation... he's still going to make plays."

• Team Dynamics and Concerns: Playing for the Giants poses challenges due to the team's offensive struggles and quarterback uncertainties, which could affect Barkley's ceiling. However, his breakaway speed and receiving ability offer a buffer against these issues.

  Jason Moore [54:10]: "Odell Beckham being out makes a huge difference... he still has breakaway potential."

• Comparative Analysis: When compared to other top running backs like Christian McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott, Barkley's high touchdown potential and versatility give him an edge, despite the offensive inefficiencies of the Giants.

  Jason Moore [52:44]: "The one spot of how can things go wrong for me with Barkley is his breakaway percentage."

Conclusion:
Saquon Barkley leads the countdown as a top fantasy running back due to his exceptional dual-threat capabilities and explosive play potential. While team dynamics present some risks, his individual talent ensures he remains a top-tier fantasy asset.

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News and Notes

Beyond the Top 10 Countdown, the hosts discuss several relevant NFL updates that impact fantasy football strategies:

Josh Jacobs Contract Negotiations

Overview:
Running back Josh Jacobs of the Raiders remains unsigned before training camp, leading to speculation about his role and future with the team.

Key Points:

• Contract Dispute: Negotiations stalled over signing bonuses, causing uncertainty about Jacobs' participation in Hard Knocks and the start of training camp.

  Mike Wright [08:43]: "Running back Josh Jacobs remains unsigned and negotiations have not been going well."

• Implications for Fantasy: If Jacobs does not make the team, fantasy managers may need to consider alternatives or adjust their drafts accordingly.

  Jason Moore [10:15]: "You better put a little flag to check in on Josh Jacobs, how he's doing."

Conclusion:
Fantasy managers should monitor Jacobs' status closely, as his absence could significantly impact the Raiders' running back depth and overall team performance.

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Smash Jackson and Paul Perkins Updates

Overview:
Running back Smash Jackson of the Giants is making a comeback from injury, raising questions about his role as a backup and potential handcuff for Saquon Barkley.

Key Points:

• Recovery Announcement: Jackson is returning to the field after a year-long injury, positioning him as a reliable backup.

  Jason Moore [11:23]: "Smash Jackson is back on the field."

• Handcuff Strategy: While some fantasy managers may choose to stash Jackson as a handcuff for Barkley, others argue that his role remains limited and separate.

  Jason Moore [11:44]: "I'd rather stash the Smash quick cash."

Conclusion:
Smash Jackson's return presents a potential backup option for fantasy managers, though his utility may primarily serve handcuff purposes rather than being a standalone starter.

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John Ross Reinvention Efforts

Overview:
Wide receiver John Ross of the Giants is attempting to reinvent his career, including changing his jersey number to gain a fresh start.

Key Points:

• Career Reset: Ross aims to overhaul his image and gameplay to better fit into the Giants' offensive schemes.

  Mike Wright [12:11]: "John Ross is hoping to reinvent himself this year... changing numbers maybe so he hopes we as fantasy owners don't recognize him."

• Fantasy Impact: Improved performance and integration into the offense could enhance Ross's fantasy value, making him a sleeper target for savvy managers.

  Jason Moore [13:19]: "He's got the opportunity and he's going to need to."

Conclusion:
John Ross's efforts to reinvent himself could lead to increased fantasy relevance if he successfully adapts to the Giants' offensive plans and secures a more prominent role in the passing game.

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Stash the Smash and Merchandise Highlights

Towards the end of the episode, the hosts briefly touch upon merchandise promotions and giveaways, encouraging listeners to engage with the podcast's sponsors for fantasy football gear and memorabilia. While not central to the episode's content, these segments offer listeners opportunities to enhance their fantasy experience through exclusive deals.

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Final Thoughts and Takeaways

The episode provides comprehensive insights into the top fantasy football players, blending statistical analysis with strategic considerations. The hosts emphasize the importance of balancing high-reward selections with potential risks, encouraging listeners to make informed decisions based on their league formats and individual player projections.

Key Takeaways:

• Top Performers: Players like Davante Adams, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffrey stand out due to their dual-threat capabilities and consistent performance.
• Risk vs. Reward: High-performing players with injury concerns, such as Todd Gurley, require careful consideration to balance their potential upside against potential pitfalls.
• Team Dynamics: Understanding team offensive schemes and quarterback stability is crucial in assessing player value, especially for players on struggling teams.
• Stay Informed: Keeping abreast of NFL news and updates is essential for adjusting fantasy strategies and optimizing draft picks.

By leveraging the detailed analysis and discussions presented in this episode, fantasy football managers can enhance their draft strategies, make informed player selections, and ultimately increase their chances of winning their leagues.

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Notable Quotes:

• Mike Wright [00:01]: "You are the mighty redwood. Your opponents are one ply toilet paper."
• Jason Moore [25:38]: "I am not fading Saquon, and I'm not fading DJ because you're just saying."
• Mike Wright [51:38]: "The pass gets running man quietly."
• Jason Moore [56:07]: "He's going to die. They have to, like, not an option. They have to lower his volume."

All timestamps correspond to the points discussed within the episode, providing context and attribution for the insights shared by the hosts.

Transcript

[Mike Wright]

It's been said that the foolish man built his house upon the sand and the wise man built his house upon the rock. Well, the wise fantasy football player builds their house upon the ultimate draft kit from the fantasy footballers. Full projections, video profiles, tier breakdowns, risk ratings. While you watch other teams comically topple over like a clown with poor balance, your foundation for an incredible season will be solidified. You are the mighty redwood. Your opponents are one ply toilet paper. You are iron alloyed with carbon. Your opponents are a soggy leaf of lettuce. Go to www.ultimatedraftkit.com and get out of the sand today.

[Jason Moore]

Hi, this is Dan aka the Brian Ketron of the 2018 Listener League and you are listening to the award winning Fantasy Footballers podcast.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, welcome in. Mike is here. I'm here doing kind of like a slow motion run jogging to the studio. Jason is present, accounted for.

[Jason Moore]

I'm half here.

Where's your other half?

I'm here with you, Mike. I can look to the right.

Yes.

I just can't look at Andy.

[Mike Wright]

It is Saturday.

[Jason Moore]

I'm here with two geriatric July 6th old men that just get hurt and can't use their necks anymore. They look like you got the old Batman suit on.

[Mike Wright]

How are you doing from your stomach bug over the weekend, Mike?

[Jason Moore]

I'm getting better, man. I'm on the antibiotics. I'm good. Hold on, let me look on over to the right. What a crutch with the antibiotics?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

If antibiotics fixed your neck, you would.

[Mike Wright]

Have been on right now.

[Jason Moore]

Inject it right in my neck.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. In improbable fashion, somehow two thirds of the show threw out their neck over the holiday.

[Jason Moore]

The left side of their neck. Yeah, Totally different things.

[Mike Wright]

Now I plan on not engaging with the audience on the camera directly to my left at all today.

[Jason Moore]

You will see, I will look for you.

[Mike Wright]

Jason's in good shape. He's already staring at the camera. We have a great show for you today. Jason won't be looking at us. We have a great quick question. We're going to talk about some Colts players and their average draft position. We've got a top 10 countdown today on the show. Going to roll, roll through our top 10.

[Jason Moore]

That's usually what a top 10 does.

[Mike Wright]

Excited for that.

[Jason Moore]

It's a top 10 countdown starting at 43.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. We're going to pick 10 separate players in our top 43. That's a top 10 countdown.

[Jason Moore]

Well, we have a. We always have a lot of questions.

[Mike Wright]

Like at the back of the first.

[Jason Moore]

Round, should I take the best wide receiver or one of these running backs?

[Mike Wright]

And you might, might get that answered today. You might, dare I say you will. We've got a lot going on. We've got the live show in San Francisco July 11th. If you are interested in coming to that, you can go to ballerslive.com we have a giveaway for listeners right [e-mail] I've heard from multiple people that we let down the Foot Clan hugely because the Podcast Awards are coming. But there was no official call, so I need to hear it.

[Jason Moore]

Oh my goodness. Foot Clan assembled.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you very much. Believe it or not, they demanded the official call. They said they will not vote for us until the official call comes forward.

[Jason Moore]

Look, I.

[Mike Wright]

In the podcast Awards.

[Jason Moore]

I am sorry.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it was sorry.

[Jason Moore]

To our incredibly beautiful, handsome, generous.

[Mike Wright]

You know what? The truth is, I don't like listeners. I feel like they do too much for us. So I never want to ask for more.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

So like going for the four Pete, I just feel like maybe the call was too much. So I didn't want to force it. But they want the call. They want to do more.

[Jason Moore]

You're incorrect. We did this way wrong. We're downplaying the four Pete. We're trying to be cool. We got to get that four Pete.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, let's go ahead and win that. But if you go to footclangiveaway.com one of the ways that you can enter to win a signed Patrick Mahomes jersey is to support the show. Vote for us at the Podcast Awards. There's a bunch of other ways. Follow us on Instagram, stuff like that. But we're giving away the the most alluring prize of all time, the signed Pat Mahomes jersey. Courtesy of pristine auction.com Twitter. You can find us at the FF Ballers. Here's your quick question. Which Colts player are you most likely to draft at their current average draft position in a half point per reception league? Here are the Colts players and where they're going while you guys ponder.

[Jason Moore]

There's a lot.

[Mike Wright]

You noodle this Ty Hilton 212. Marlon Mack is going one pick later at 301. Andrew Luck is going as the third pick of the fifth round. Eric Ebron the 11th pick of the sixth round. And then you get down into the deep doldrums of the draft.

[Jason Moore]

You drop from the sixth round of the 12 yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Devin Funche is 1202. Naim Hines, 1303. Paris Campbell, 1308. Jack Doyle, 1311. Who are you most likely to end up with on your team if you have to pick one out of those players?

[Jason Moore]

If I got to pick one out of that crew, it's Ty Hilton right now, my number seven wide receiver in half point to get that kind of a value at the back of the second. So, I mean, you know, I've got Saquon, I've got. I've got an elite, elite running back. And then I get a guy who's. He's a top 10 wide receiver, has top five ability. I think that's absolutely sensational.

[Mike Wright]

Are you comfortable with him as you're one?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

So that's the thing about Ty versus the guy that I will probably end up with more in drafts from the Colts, which is Marlon Mack, is because they're in that early third round you're talking about, well, what. What were your first two picks? Did you go running back, running back, in which case, you know, Ty might be your one, or did you go running back, wide receiver? I tend. And of course, we never lock ourselves into a positional position than position. But more often than not lately I've been going running back, then wide receiver. And if I can add Marla Mack as my running back two to a stud running back and wide receiver, I'm all about that life.

[Mike Wright]

I'm going to go with naim Heinz at 1303, aka free in my drafts.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Naim Hines. At the end of last season, three of the last five games had seven or more receptions heavily targeted by Andrew Luck. He is my in case of emergency, break the glass. I can start him any week and hope it's a high reception total week. But when you look at him and people want to talk about the value of getting an Austin Eckler a rotational backfield piece later, I see a lot of similarities between the value of Heinz and Eckler, only you don't pay for Heinz. Hines is basically free. He's going to be heavily targeted. Caught more receptions than Eckler did. Just didn't get in the end zone the way Eckler did. Eckler had those burst weeks because he kept showing up in the, you know, big play. Yeah, Hines, I think had two touchdowns on the year and they both came in the same game in the receiving game. So it just didn't happen in that regard to him. Very talented. We know Mac's not going to catch a lot of passes. I think Hines is the guy that I'll take the free shot at him. I can't disagree with the value on Hilton, so I just didn't want to go double up on Hilton.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

So Mike, I'm surprised you didn't bring up Jack Doyle as well. Maybe you just don't draft him.

[Jason Moore]

No, I like Jack Doyle. I mean he's in that free category as well. I'm just so madly in love with Hilton for this year. I didn't want people to think, well, you know, they're just trying to take the late values. No. Ty Hilton at the bag of the second is fantastic.

[Mike Wright]

My Dynasty team thanks you, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

You are very welcome.

[Mike Wright]

I appreciate all puff pieces about my Dynasty players, all the hype. I accept. Let's get into the news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league presented by Sleeper.

[Mike Wright]

Well, the Raiders. Some news out of Raiders camp ahead of so bizarre ahead of Hard Knocks running back Josh Jacobs remains un. Unsigned and negotiations have not been going away going well. This is via Twitter. There's a growing belief that Jacobs will not be there at the start of camp. That's this is over signing bonus distribution. This is rare to see for first round draft picks anymore.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean it really only happens when there's some kind of organizational dysfunction because.

No.

Yeah. So I mean I. You would expect him in. I will say this. You know, we. I've been joking recently about. Josh Jacobs is one of those guys that's going to really get pumped up through Hard Knocks and then, you know, maybe, maybe his value in the draft isn't there. Maybe, maybe he could skip a couple episodes and get back in.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's a, it's a weird situation because the only thing you can even debate right now is like the payment schedule and when you get your money, all the contract values, all the bonuses, they're all predetermined. The only wiggle room is with that like, you know, payment schedule when salary guarantees have offsets and stuff like that.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe he's like a tax genius and he. He's trying to schedule it perfectly.

I'm going to go ahead and say it's the agent who's saying they need something.

[Mike Wright]

But does leverage with no running backs behind him pretty much.

[Jason Moore]

Does this scare either of you two right now?

[Mike Wright]

Not yet.

[Jason Moore]

Not yet. But this is one of those. You better put a little flag to check in on Josh Jacobs, how he's doing if he's missing. If he misses two weeks of training camp, that's a problem into the preseason. Then I'm going to Start getting a little worried.

[Mike Wright]

Someone like Gruden, he's vindictive.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And if you've made an effort, if you're not complying with team philosophy, Krampus, you're up. He's the kind of guy that says, you know what, sure, we'd love to have you out there, but you're going to sit and watch because you wanted to make this decision. It's just the way some coaches are.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

Might not be the best thing for the on the field product. Probably pretty stupid if you've signed in or paying a player. But it's what happens to teach a lesson. Paul Perkins. Yes, the return of Smash Jackson. He ran with the second team offense.

[Jason Moore]

Of course he did.

[Mike Wright]

Giants camp and at off season. I'm sorry, not Giants camp. At offseason workouts, recovered from a year long injury.

[Jason Moore]

It's only a matter of time.

[Mike Wright]

Smash Jackson in a world is back on the field.

[Jason Moore]

Smash Jackson is the backup to Saquon. He is the handcuff to Saquon and I believe if he gets the opportunity is irrelevant. I just don't think.

[Mike Wright]

Hold on to your M.O. is Paul Perkins.

[Jason Moore]

So Diane.

Yes, it's Paul Perkins. Spencer Jackson is rip.

But for dynasty purposes, are you going to stash the Smash?

Look, if I've got a 30, 30 person roster and I got Saquon, sure I will stash the Smash.

I mean people were they're stalling with Gallman. Right?

Right.

I'd rather stash the Smash quick cash.

[Mike Wright]

I'd rather not touch the non Saquon. That's how I feel about the Giants offense. I love it when there are hot debates over backups on a bad offense. I mean can you imagine that often.

[Jason Moore]

If Sequin Barkley's the best time that oh New York.

[Mike Wright]

He was to counterpoint the kind of like Saquon was so good last year.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Not just a little good like so you look at the eight man fronts he faced, you look at the total rushing attempts the team had. They were so bad and he was so good.

[Jason Moore]

So we're going to be talking about Saquon, are we? Maybe. Well, I guess if we're starting in.

The 40s in our top 10.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he's in our top 10. All right. One more piece of news. According to the Athletic, John Ross is quote hoping to reinvent himself this year. Ross is even changing numbers maybe so he hopes we as fantasy owners don't recognize him. I kind of wanted to basically start everything over, said Ross.

[Jason Moore]

It's a good plan.

[Mike Wright]

Is it A good plan when the only thing you had was speed. Are you reinventing yourself as not just a fast player?

[Jason Moore]

No, I mean, I think he's trying to reinvent himself as a person, like try to, you know, get over whatever hiccups have been there. I mean, obviously he's not saying, I want to be a 50, 50 ball, slow, methodical player.

[Mike Wright]

New approach, new head coach.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's got the opportunity and he's going to need to. So, you know, when he said, I kind of want to basically start everything over, the reporter responded with, duh.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Yeah, it's not been good for John Ross. I think the ship has probably sailed. Mostly because the opportunity is just not really there. I mean, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, A.J. green, they'll all catch more passes than John Ross will. Tyler Iford might. You know, Gio Bernard might. I mean, we did.

[Jason Moore]

Statistically speaking, when it's been this long for guys like Ross, Josh Dachshund, It's Rashad Perryman. It's just not going to happen.

[Mike Wright]

All right, with fantasy football gearing up, now is the time to ask your commission. If you are using the right platform, you should use Sleeper. Very nice, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you.

[Mike Wright]

All right, you guys want to get into our top 10 or did you have anything I wanted to bring to the table before we.

[Jason Moore]

Well, before we jump into a top ten. I wouldn't run. Wouldn't. I would like to. I couldn't find the right word. No, but you're too fixed with my tense problem.

[Mike Wright]

I would just keep trying when I.

[Jason Moore]

Was talk, though, man. Did you guys ever have the writing intense problem?

[Mike Wright]

Writing intense?

[Jason Moore]

Like as in using past tense? Nice. Like past tense, present tense and just.

[Mike Wright]

You couldn't handle it?

[Jason Moore]

No, there was a time in my life where I just. I kept using the wrong ones and it would be jumping back and forth.

[Mike Wright]

Is that a tough time for you?

[Jason Moore]

All the English teachers was not having that. But you know what they would be having? Fantasy Gear from fantasychamps.com your fantasy paraphernalia. If you're a winner.

[Mike Wright]

Paraphernalia.

[Jason Moore]

What else would you call it?

[Mike Wright]

No, I did. Sure. Trophies.

[Jason Moore]

Now I'm really self.

Questions, rings.

Look, if you win, you got to go to fantasychamps.com if you're doing a live draft and you want to have that board. Fantasy Champs has you covered there as well. All kinds of cool stuff, hardware, gear, and yes, paraphernalia.

[Mike Wright]

No, you're right.

[Jason Moore]

Use the code ballers. You can save some money.

Not just if you win, but if you Won.

Sure.

Helping you out there. Thank you.

I really appreciate. My English teacher appreciates that.

[Mike Wright]

If you didn't notice, it's Saturday and there's a new Ballers episode. We are three times a week now in July. We're up to five episodes a week starting in August. And really that six. If you're a member of the Foot clan and join the Foot.com, which I do encourage you to check out, but, man, it's go time. We're ready to rumble. Let's get into it.

[Andy Holloway]

Number 10.

[Mike Wright]

All right. Number 10 on the list, running back Todd Gurley from the Los Angeles Rams. We never would have imagined.

[Jason Moore]

Number one overall fantasy player last year besides Patrick Mahomes, but number one running back.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. And if you go back again to 2017, he was the number one running back. He's obviously been a complete monster for fantasy owners in 2018. 10th Most PPR points per game for running backs in NFL history. His average draft position right now is the middle of the second round out of fear. His UDK risk rating in our ultimate draft kit@ultimate draftkit.com is a 6 out of 10. That's very high, which is high for a guy you would draft in the first or second round or feel confident. But yet 17 touchdowns on the ground in 14 games. Another four through the air on 81 targets. At what point will the pendulum swing too far on Gurley? Or is this completely wait and see in your mind? Because I'm wondering. I start, he's getting to the point where I'm going, man. A highly efficient, less volume Todd Gurley might be more valuable than the 205.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, that is 100% true. When I made my rankings, he doesn't have the volume that he's had in the past. He just, you know, he's not going to get that. You can see with what the transactions that the team has made that they plan to lighten his workload and not just the transactions they made, but you've got a little bit of evidence from when he came back from injury and how he was used alongside CJ Anderson. So there's plenty of reasons to be scared. But even still, even still, when, you know, when I've got Gurley just barely over 200 rushing carries, he's still my running back. Eight Russian carries. Is that what you're laughing about?

I don't think I've heard that before.

Yeah. Well, no, no, no. They were like, they're not Australian carries.

Yeah, no, I was going to make that joke, too.

Yeah, they're in the very European. Thank you. But he doesn't need the volume to be great. That being said, I do think that in the middle of the second, where you're drafting him in a lot of these drafts, I feel like that. And this will sound a little weird because he was the number one last year and number one before. I feel like you're basically drafting him at his ceiling. And that's not to say that he can't hit that, but that's kind of what I think. With this level of volume that I.

[Mike Wright]

Expect, I think I would probably not take it that far. Now, I wanted to ask the question, how's. What's the earliest you individually would take early? For me, it's the back of the first round. I would be willing in the right circumstance to do that. I look at players like Alvin Camara, and I say, without massive workload, they're top five backs. So to me, the ceiling for Gurley has to be the top five.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I think that he can still hit that. The downside for Gurley is.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. How does it go wrong?

[Jason Moore]

Week two, in between week one and week two, his knee swells up again, and he's just sitting on the sideline for indefinite amount of time. You. It's. It's arthritis. You have no idea when.

[Mike Wright]

When he needs a break.

[Jason Moore]

When he needs a break, when it's going to calm down. This isn't a broken clavicle. Okay. Four to six weeks. Todd Gurley's back, and he's. It's full strength. It's. It's your.

[Mike Wright]

Tony Romo just shuddered.

[Jason Moore]

Somewhere he's got a few extra.

[Mike Wright]

Who said what? Huh?

[Jason Moore]

Bring him another one. But, like, you don't know when or if the problem's actually going to strike again. I mean, I. Look, I'm posing this question. You guys, you're old, you're geriatric. Yeah. You both have to know a thing or two about arthritis.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

When's it gonna happen?

[Mike Wright]

All I know is I'd be out right now.

[Jason Moore]

All I know is I'm not playing quality football with my arthritis or with my neck. And while. So maybe Gurley's upside is in the top five, still not at that, you know, eighth running back spot. But my point is, I think that the days of his dominant number one, that's just done. That's gone. And because he carries so much weight, to answer your question, Andy, where would I draft him? He's one of those guys that I feel like he's pretty much off my board because I would consider it in.

[Mike Wright]

The 301 in the third round.

[Jason Moore]

I would consider him there. But the reality is he probably won't make it to that spot. But when I go down through the average draft list and I think, you know, okay, right now, guys that are going even behind him, you know Dalvin Cook. I'll take Dalvin Cook over Todd Gurley. That's.

That's Nick Chubb.

Nick Chubb. I would go Gurley because I think Chubb has his Marlon Mac Gurley.

[Mike Wright]

Come on.

[Jason Moore]

Leonard Fournette.

Okay, so that's about where Gurley is.

I think he would take Gurley where his ADP is.

[Mike Wright]

If you have Gurley, let's say you get him at 205, you just draft him there. Do you spend 705 on Darrell Henderson? Do you spend 701 on Darryl Henderson?

[Jason Moore]

I do.

[Mike Wright]

Because you want to ensure that you don't have catastrophic loss of your second round pick.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. I don't normally like to go after the handcuff. I'm not drafting Paul Perkins anywhere. Because you don't. It's hard to be 100% certain who the. Who the handcuff actually is. And will that handcuff get the type of work you're expecting? Things are very fluid over the season. But you know it actually, you know what we can't even say for with 100% that is Darrell Henderson.

[Mike Wright]

Nope.

[Jason Moore]

But you can say you can follow what the coaches did or the management team of spending a very high draft capital moving up to get him. It would seem that he would come.

[Mike Wright]

In and be the watch him the heavy side closely in camp in preseason. Henderson flashing in camp or preseason, getting the praise of coaches means a lot towards ensuring your handcuff situation. Because if he's the guy, he's not a handcuff. He's.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, he's a hand. I don't think he will.

[Mike Wright]

I went both sides.

[Jason Moore]

I saw both sides.

[Mike Wright]

Stereo. Stereo.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think he would come in and get Gurley's workload. What I'm still expecting him to get. It would be him and Malcolm Brown, but Darryl Henderson would be on the side that you want.

[Mike Wright]

All right, number. Well, I got a button for that.

[Andy Holloway]

Number nine, David Johnson.

[Jason Moore]

I was really hoping you would. All right, number nine. Number nine.

[Mike Wright]

That's right. Redundant. David Johnson. Does he deserve.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

To be praised.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. It. It was tough sledding. If you had David Johnson last year because you took him at number two.

[Mike Wright]

His ADP is at 105 right now.

[Jason Moore]

He is not Being drafted as a cheap pick after last year's disappointment when he finished as a running back. 10. So he's being drafted assuming the Cardinals are going to score more than just the least in the league. The offense is going to play at a quicker pace of pay and David Johnson has been good. I think that fantasy players are smart. They're just right.

[Mike Wright]

2015 he was number eight. 2016 number one. Missed the season in 2017 with the injury last season, number 10. Overall, he's the workhorse. 258 carries last year, 50 receptions on the worst possible offense.

[Jason Moore]

You saw his numbers go up everywhere across the board once. Once Mike McCoy was fired, he went from 8.3 yards reception to 9.3. His yards per carry went from 3.16 up to almost 4. His attempts per game went up from 15 to 17. So you saw a marked improvement once Mike McCoy and his horrifically bad 1952 offense was sent packing. The problem, the big problem for David Johnson last year in 2018, 15 attempts in the 10 zone. You need a running back to get carries that make their money. In his huge year in 2016, that number was 33, more than double the attempts inside the 10 than he had last year. He's the pass catching back if, and.

[Mike Wright]

Honestly to me, he was PFF's number one pass catcher in football in 2016.

[Jason Moore]

If you are fading David Johnson this year, you better be fading Saquon Barkley. I'm not saying he's better. Barkley is the better raw athlete and running back at this point, but it's nearly identical situations. Lead dog, pass catching, running back for a what could be a pretty bad offense.

[Mike Wright]

How does it go wrong for David Johnson this year? There's a lot of hype around Cliff Kingsbury. It almost feels like the longer we sit with the information about Kyler running the offense and play total plays and the longer we sit with it, all the ADPs are just trickling up for David Johnson and Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald and Kyler. So it's almost like you need to see. You need to let the bull out of the pin to see what the heck happens. How does it go wrong? What is the narrative for another disappointing year for David Johnson? If he's being drafted at 105, that's pretty easy.

[Jason Moore]

How it goes wrong is the air raid system and the excitement over Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray coming to the NFL just flat fails. It doesn't translate with these hash marks. The offense sputters. They're not that good. The Offensive line is bad. So, I mean, if the whole offense collapse and the experiment going on in the desert right now is a failure, then David Johnson will not return on the 105 pick overall. He will still be, barring injury, you know, a top 15 back. He was a top 10 back last year. But you're not going to feel good spinning the fifth pick because there's going to be guys who went six or seven or eight who were, you know, top players. But I just, you know, look, we're here. We get to see a lot, right?

And let me be clear, just to follow up my point. I am not fading Saquon, and I'm not fading DJ because you're just saying.

[Mike Wright]

If you fade one, you need to fade the other because of.

[Jason Moore]

Because it's very similar circumstances.

[Mike Wright]

Do you put David Johnson now we have him at 9 in our top 10. Do you put him in the category of players that are capable of finishing one overall this season?

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Jason says yes. I mean, yeah, I would say he's in the cat. It doesn't mean. That's obviously not. If we were projecting that he'd be number one on the list, but he's in that category.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, number eight.

[Mike Wright]

Number eight on the top 10 list today. Devonte Adams, wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers. His average jab position is right here at 108. His risk rating is low because this guy gets targeted over and over and over again. And then in the offseason, Aaron Rodgers comes out and says, you know what? I'd like to throw him the ball some more. He's more open than even I could have thrown him the ball last year. 111 receptions, 13 touchdowns, 169 targets, which is unbelievable. We've listened to Matt Harmon talk about devonte Adams. If you look at the ultimate draft kit and the reception perception profile, there has been no player who has improved more than devonte Adams over the course of his career. So we know he's a bona fide stud. Last year, number three overall at the position. How does it go? Right. How does it go wrong for devonte Adams? What do you guys want to talk about?

[Jason Moore]

One, I would like to say that the fact that he's this low is. I take no fault of this. This is everyone else. It is not me. I like devonte Adams more than being. Being this low in the. I would say the list.

[Mike Wright]

We then pulled it to adp like the average. Right? Because that's where he's going. He's going right now. So you're you're higher than average, which is fine.

[Jason Moore]

So you, why don't you tell us how it goes right?

It goes right that. You see what happened to him last year where he had a. It was, it was a breakout season for Adams where he took the leap of, you know, that he's going to be great because he's evolving into a good wide receiver and he's Aaron Rodgers number one. But then he really came through. This was his first year over a thousand yards. Am I remembering that correctly?

That is correct.

[Mike Wright]

I. Yes, you absolutely are remembering that correctly. Because I loved. Loved hunting.

[Jason Moore]

That was your favorite stat. Just like my favorite 997. Yeah. He'd been never been over a thousand.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, because he did stink.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

He doesn't stink.

[Jason Moore]

He's.

[Mike Wright]

What the reception perception profile showed is he became a great player. I fully acknowledge I was dead wrong with the player he became.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it was hard. It was difficult to see this path unfold after his first couple years in the league. But to me, the way it goes right is that, is that the Green Bay packers and Aaron Rodgers gets back on track. The. It was a crazy year last year for Aaron Rodgers. The way I talked about David Johnson wasn't getting used in the 10 zone. Aaron Rodgers was not throwing the way that he has statistically has inside of the red zone. You're talking compared to the previous four years. He threw the ball about 40 times fewer in the red zone, which. That's insane. That's a massive drop for Aaron Rodgers. So the way that things go, go that way, go the way they should for Adams or even better, Rogers gets back on track and the rest of the crew, the rest of the Green Bay packers wide receiver finally start pulling their weight. And it's not just Devonte Adams. It's. They turn into the number one scoring offense in the league and Adams hits that 15 touchdown mark.

Yeah, the nice thing about Adams, Andy brought it up at the beginning. It's his consistency. A lot of people won championships with Devonte Adams last year because week in, week out, he was reliable. And when you have Aaron Rodgers, number one wide receiver, look back over time. Whether it's Devonte Adams or Jordy Nelson or Donald Driver, the number one wide receiver for Aaron Rodgers is a must have asset in fantasy football. You want to make him the number one wide receiver, great, do it. How's it going to go wrong for Devonte Adams? I mean it would take an epic collapse. It would take something of an injury. I mean, I can't imagine he's as.

[Mike Wright]

Safe as they come into position. Yeah, because he doesn't have a history of injury like the next guy.

[Jason Moore]

He has his concussion history. If you recall, he's taken a few big shots to the head where if he suffered another concussion this year, then he could be missing some major time.

[Mike Wright]

All right, let's move on.

[Andy Holloway]

Number seven.

[Mike Wright]

All right. Another wide receiver. We're higher on this player than the consensus. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons wide receiver. All he's done over the last five years is finished eighth, second, sixth, fourth and fifth at the position. Julio found his way into the end zone over the back half of the year. His average draft position is at 112 right now. Last season, 113 receptions, 1677 yards, eight touchdowns on 170 targets. We know who he is at this point in his career. To me, that's still a player that if the, if the touchdown, if the ball falls the right way, if the thing, things go the right way for him, he's still in the category of finishing at number one at the position right now. Fantasy owners like Devonte Adams a lot more than Julio Jones. If you look at high stakes leagues, Jones is going 12, 13. He's going anywhere between the sixth off the board to 21, whereas Adams is higher. Why do we have him higher than Adams? What's the argument?

[Jason Moore]

I don't know.

You tell me.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I guess I will, I will tell you that. I will say this. I think that what you saw over the back half of the year, like Julio's too talented to not get in the end zone. I like that fact that the Atlanta offense has predictable pieces to it. An underrated quarterback in Matt Ryan, a quarterback that this year. I brought this up on a radio show the other day. They play an inordinate amount of games inside of domes where Ryan has been exceptionally better. Obviously the home games are all there, but his away games happen to be in domes. This year he's guaranteed for 1500 yards. So does he score 6, 7, 8, 9 times or does he continue to have those problems? Jason, where do you sit in this? Because I know that I've been very bullish on Julio.

[Jason Moore]

I am certainly not as bullish as you are, but the process from a fantasy football analysis side is strong to say, look, first of all, this guy is always, always a top 10 wide receiver in fantasy, usually a top five wide receiver. That's for a guy who doesn't usually score touchdowns. He's going to be at or near the league lead in receptions and in yardage. So it's like, okay, he's got the safest baseline that we know what we're getting. You know, if devonte Adams doesn't happen to get the double digit touchdowns, which I do think he's got a higher, higher odds to get, you know, significantly more touchdowns than Julio. But touchdowns are the least sticky of all Fantasy football stats from year to year. Guys who have great touchdown rates can disappear. We saw that with Jordy once when he went from 15 down to seven. But if Julio, who you're pretty much just expecting five or six touchdowns from on a season, if he ends up with 10, which he has done in the past, he's the number one wide receiver. So I think he's just a matter of when it comes to the safe play volume over touchdowns. But I love both players.

[Mike Wright]

All right, let's move on to a guy ranked much higher in pretty much every format. Number six, DeAndre Hopkins, wide receiver, Houston Texans 2017. Number one overall last year. Number two overall at the position. He's the only wide receiver in high stakes leagues that even has gone and number one overall. Hopkins last year was a monster. Eleven touchdowns, 163 targets, 1500 plus yards, 115 receptions. He's led the league in target share two consecutive seasons. His average draft position is one hundred and seven. How it goes, right? He just does what he does. He just does what he does. Right. What is an argument for Hopkins having a below Hopkins standard type of season?

[Jason Moore]

I mean the only thing that I can come up with is that Kiki QT and Will Fuller actually stay on the field. And Deshaun Watson doesn't feel it's fully necessary to feed everything over to DeAndre Hopkins. Mike Clay had tweeted out in games where QT played five full games, QT had 50 targets and Hopkins had 47. Now that's, that's not to say QT had different targets. But yeah, Hopkins is still the by far the more valuable wide receiver. But what it's saying is there are players, there could be wide receivers on this team this year that are actually worth a target from desean Watson where that's, it's been rough sledding when Will Fuller was not on the field for them to find someone, I mean they, they traded, they threw a Hail Mary and they traded for demarius Thomas halfway through the year because they said we need somebody, anyone who can come in and catch passes who's not going to get injured. Yeah. Then, well man, that didn't work out. What is. But so that's how it goes. That's how Hopkins goes from number one to number three or number four. I mean, even if this catastrophic, he's unguardable. Cataclysm. I've introduced, I've made up, I've fabricated.

[Mike Wright]

You can still top four. You can't double him, right?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, you can double him, but he's still going to come down with the ball.

[Mike Wright]

I saw a key Talib the other day. They went rapid fire questions with him. Cornerback for the Rams, best hands in the game. D Hop DeAndre Hopkins. He's done it over and over again. Finds a way to get into the end zone on some ridiculous catches.

[Jason Moore]

Hopkins is like taking Julio Jones and Devonte Adams and kind of putting them together because you've got the yardage and the PPR monstrosity of Julio, but you've got the touchdown capability and history with Hopkins. So I think that's why Hopkins universally is usually seen as the number one wide receiver.

[Mike Wright]

Before we jump into the top five percentage chance, Hopkins ends the year the number one overall fantasy wide receiver. In your mind, Mike?

[Jason Moore]

I will go 30%.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, wow. Okay.

[Jason Moore]

I will go 13%.

[Mike Wright]

All right. I was going to say it's probably 50% because he's your number one guy.

[Jason Moore]

He's not number one for us.

Well, and the thing is, it's not a disrespect for Hopkins so much as I think that there's. I think juju could. I think Julio could. I think Devonte Adams could. I mean, there's competition there and obviously.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. Okay, let's move on.

[Andy Holloway]

Number five.

[Mike Wright]

All right. Melvin Gordon comes in at number five running back for the Chargers. He's got a risk rating of 4 in our ultimate draft kit the last 3 years. Finished 7th, 5th and 7th. Only played 16 games one time in that span. That's why the risk rating is up a little bit. He's been banged up. He's played hurt, so he's played through injury. And then he's missed some games. Played 12 last year, 10 touchdowns, 50 receptions, 175 carries. Monster efficiency improvements over his career, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he has gotten a lot better. I mean, this was actually shockingly, if you didn't realize this, this was the first year that Melvin Gordon had. Has finished over that arbitrary 4.0 yards per carry. He was. He's been a 3.9 type of guy. And this year it was over five. Which to me says it's not just that Gordon has gotten better, but the Chargers offense as a whole is very deadly. And Melvin Gordon gets the Todd Gurley workload that fantasy players want. It just didn't feel like it by the end of the year because he only played the 12 games and Todd Gurley happened to finish with a couple more, but he is, he is Absolutely fantasy gold. 9.8 yards per reception. Has a year with 10.2 yards per reception. He's, he's a big play guy. He does it through the air and on the ground and is a touchdown machine. What do we got? 28 touchdowns the past three years, only playing one full season.

[Mike Wright]

Well, the nice thing is, is when he was actually on the field last year, you didn't have to worry about it.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

He never busted. He had one game where he was in that kind of meh category, but he didn't kill you on the week. He did not have a pure bust week. His efficiency's through the roof. He has to stay healthy. I think we know all the good things about him. But do you worry about, you know, some people out there, they, they believe the workload, you know, needs to be, needs to be reined in. And Austin Eckler needs to get more work or Justin Jackson, who had a chance at the end of the year, maybe Philip Rivers starts to show his age and this team regresses a little bit. And so his passing game, upside, goal line, upside, goes down. Doesn't seem like this is the year we're going to be disappointed in Melvin Gordon.

[Jason Moore]

Not to me. And it doesn't matter if we as the general public believe that his workload should go down because he keeps getting hurt. It matters what the team thinks and.

[Mike Wright]

He wants to be out there.

[Jason Moore]

I think that the team is still going to rely heavily on Melvin Gordon in that level of workload. But he's behind some other running backs because of those reasons, of the injury and the risk concerns.

Yeah, if it wasn't for injury, I mean, you've got a team that is so like, you know, the thing about fantasy is whenever a team makes big, splashy moves, they get the publicity, they get the press, they get the excitement, the unknown. But it's usually the teams that stay the same. No coaching turnover, no playbook turnover, no huge, you know, changes on the offense. That's the Chargers, where they take a step forward as an offense. And last year, in the games that he was playing, look, there were only two players who outscored him on a per game basis. Todd Gurley and Saquon. That's it. That's how good he was. He was in that category on a per game. He was one of those very few guys where it was like you got two players in one position in your fantasy lineup week in and week out. I think if they bring his carries down, two or three carries a game and I can get 16 games like that's a good sign me up.

[Mike Wright]

I think the Devonte Adams, Melvin Gordon career comps are probably worth looking at. Where that distrust sometimes, I mean Adams has moved past it now, but there's like an underrated nature to Gordon and Adams or was because of the fact that they weren't great players to be. I mean his efficiency went from what, 3.1 a carry in his first few.

[Jason Moore]

Years to he was 3.539-3951.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So the perception doesn't match the reality. Like I didn't realize how good he was in a per game basis until you said that.

[Jason Moore]

He will never be in the fours. He's either in the threes or the fives.

[Andy Holloway]

Number four.

[Mike Wright]

All right, number four coming in. Alvin Kamara.

[Jason Moore]

You say Kamara. I say Kamara.

I say super. Camario.

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Last season number four overall at the position 2017 he was number three. This is a player who does not need 220 plus carries to be a top guy. A running back target last year in a half point league it's worth almost double that of a rushing attempt. 1.88 times the value of one rushing attempt. Players that can get the kind of receiving yardage that Alvin Camara has, 81 receptions, 709 receiving yards, four touchdowns through the air. It changes the equation for them. I love Camara this year. I think his opportunity is greater than he even was last year. A lot of people want to talk about Latavius Murray as a value seventh round draft pick. Let's talk about this backfield. Camaro is a guy that can finish number one overall this season.

[Jason Moore]

I completely agree. I mean you look at three of the first four weeks last year when they didn't have Mark Ingram. Camara finished as the number one back. He is electric. I remember watching the first game of last year because I was, I was a little bit worried about the volume of Camara and whether or not he could stay that efficient. And my biggest takeaway from last year, week one, when watching the games on Sunday I went, oh, he's just too good. He's just. You go back and watch film and you go, okay. You see him coming around an edge. There's three defenders, one blocker. There's. He's at the 12 yard line. There's maybe he'll get two yards and 13 yards later, he's in the end zone celebrating a touchdown because guys can't touch him. He is exceptional. He's on one of the best offenses out there. And I agree with you, Andy. The opportunity is better this year than last year. While I think Latavius Murray is involved, the Saints do not run a workhorse back system. Never have, never will. Latavius Murray is less than Mark Ingram. So I, you know, I think that Alvin Camara is every bit deserving of. If you want to draft him at the number one spot, you can. He's certainly in that conversation with the other three guys that are ahead of him on this list.

[Mike Wright]

If there's a team like we talk about the sticky nature of touchdowns, it doesn't matter who you are. Go back to Sean McCoy's great years. Oh, man, 20, 20 touchdowns, one year drops down to seven. If you want to pick a team where it's the most predictable possible, the Saints just run the ball into the end zone. This is what they do. Last season they led the NFL in rushing touchdowns. Camara is going to get himself into the end zone and I don't think that they're going to abandon what he offers around the goal line just to get Latavius Murray in the game. There's not a lot of risk to me.

[Jason Moore]

I agree.

[Mike Wright]

For Alvin Camara, do you want as the Camaro owner, do you view Murray as a handcuff or is he a handcuff?

[Jason Moore]

I think he's more of a handcuff because I agree, you know, if Alvin Camara were to go down, I don't. It's like we said, it's not the methodology of Sean Payton to say I want a workhorse back. They'll have someone else. Javorius Allen will then take over. You know, that role. If he's on the name, I thought.

We would never have to say again stops here.

They'll find someone and they will split the load. And if you were splitting the load, then I'm not in love with Latavius Murray as a handcuff, but I do think he's a value in general because you'll be able to play him as a flex as a lower tier player even when Camara is healthy.

[Mike Wright]

All right, let's move on. Number three, Christian McCaffrey comes in at number three. Man, what a year for Christian McCaffrey. His rookie season finished 11th at the position despite not really doing much on the ground last season. Number three at the position, 219 carries over a thousand yards, seven touchdowns on the ground. Oh, and then I'm going to catch 107 passes for 867 yards and six touchdowns on 124 targets. Can he maintain that high of a workload? Can those biceps handle that kind of workload and stay healthy?

[Jason Moore]

They're big, them biceps. Biceps are big from what I've been seeing.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, they're looking good.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

He missed no snaps, zero snaps in four games last year where he never even came off the field.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he made. He made Greg Olson feel bad for how often Greg Olson was on the field. Like, man, I wish I could be on the field as much as Christian McCaffrey. I mean, 30 total miss snaps, 30 on the season. He is. You know, we talked about this ad nauseam last year. Nora Turner has a workhorse back. The opposite to your credit.

[Mike Wright]

You talked about it ad nausea.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

Yeah. And, you know, sometimes you can't really.

How are you not. How is that not a toot. Toot for.

[Mike Wright]

No, he just. He just took it, man. Just let him have it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he was being modest.

Are you okay?

[Mike Wright]

No, he's not.

[Jason Moore]

Well, the fact that you're talking about something you got right and you're not stopping the show, it's. Halt the recording.

It's just become. It's just become one of those things.

[Mike Wright]

If you pulled a plaque out from under his desk right now, if I were going to stop, he already had a pre printed.

[Jason Moore]

Every time I got something right, the show would never go on.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

There, he's back. So.

But, you know, with the. With the history you have, it's funny because at the end of this year, with how much Christian McCaffrey was used, I thought to myself, this man's going to die. They have to, like, not. Not an option. They have to lower his volume. And then as the offseason has gone on, I go, why North? Turner's not going to do that. Like, they are going to run him into the ground. And I. I think he can handle it because this isn't like out of nowhere in college.

[Mike Wright]

No, it's not.

[Jason Moore]

He was a workhorse back.

[Mike Wright]

22 years old.

[Jason Moore]

He's. He's going to be able to handle it. He's going to get the workload. He's game script proof because of his passing work. I mean, it's just a matter of how many rushing touchdowns can he get. If he gets a lot, he's in the top three. If he ends up having, you know, six or seven on the season, he's in the top 10, correction.

[Mike Wright]

By the way, he's 23 years old, not 22 years old. I like that. I wrote in the show doc how it goes. Right. And Kyle, our editor in chief wrote in. No explanation for how it goes. Right. Just says he's a PPR demigod. Yes, he's very fair because it's true. As far as it going wrong, I, barring injury is not going to.

[Jason Moore]

I completely agree. If even if the Panthers, they come out and they're saying we're. We're going to cut back on his wild. What have they done this off season besides bring back the mysterious age of Cameron Artist Payne? Yeah, they added Jordan Scarlet in the fifth round and then that's it.

[Mike Wright]

Well, and they invested a top pick.

[Jason Moore]

I mean they have Elijah Holyfield as an undrafted free agent, but they've done really nothing.

[Mike Wright]

They're going to use them up.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

They put a top 10 pick on a running back. He did everything you could ever want from a running back. They're going to keep doing it. If you wanted to look at a player, you know, look at what we got from Gurley, that kind of like super performance for a few year window. We're in that window for Christian McCaffrey.

[Jason Moore]

I agree.

[Andy Holloway]

Number two.

[Mike Wright]

All right, number two is Ezekiel Elliott, now free from the shackles of potential suspension for now. Oh, look mad but true. Fifteen games, 300 carries, 1400 yards, six touchdowns, which is a low number on the ground. That could come up 77 receptions. That is the breakthrough total for Zeke. You know, he's always been great, but he hadn't been utilized in the passing game to the degree that he was. After Amari Cooper arrived before Amari Cooper, 5 targets per game, 28 receiving yards per game. After Amari Cooper, all of a sudden the offense, whatever happened, 6.3 targets per game, 42 receiving yards per game. I mean Zeke, Zeke is unstoppable.

[Jason Moore]

Look, the second half of the year when Amari Cooper got there in this new offense that performed well was there. Zeke was on pace for 118 targets. Christian McCaffrey had 124 targets. Christian McCaffrey had six more targets. In that pace, Zeke became a PPR guy and he is, I believe the best running back in the NFL. I think if you're just talking on the ground running game, Zeke is the guy who I would Over Saquon, over DJ over Gurley. Zeke is unbelievably talented. If he gets the workload in the running game, which you know he's going to get and now they involve him in the passing game he's had. He's always been a touchdown guy. Like he had six touchdowns last year. Very disappointing in that department. Still had a great season. But if he were to put both together, the passing game and the touchdown game, you want to talk about a Todd Gurley level, you know, a completely unfair advantage. That's why Zeke is my number one running back this year. I was only worried about the possibility of the suspension that has been ruled out. I'm, I'm full steam ahead.

[Mike Wright]

The only thing that I will say about Zeke is that if you're in a PPR format, Zeke's going to be drafted ahead of McCaffrey, Camara, maybe more often than not. So maybe in those formats. If it was a mirage, I mean, that's a small sample. You look at Camara, you look at McCaffrey, you know, and David Johnson, you know, you know those guys. The fluidity in the passing game, you've seen it over a long stretch of time. We haven't seen it over a long stretch for Zeke. So that could, you know, in a PPR league, could he finish four, five? Yes, he could. But if his, if we're seeing a trend of success in the passing game, he should be the number one or two guy.

[Jason Moore]

You're 100% right that the sample is too small to bank on. But if you take that sample out and look at his rookie year when he was the number two running back and wasn't a pass catcher, or last year or the year before last, when he was the number 10 running back and only played in 10 games. So, okay, he doesn't get the pass catching work. It was a mirage.

[Mike Wright]

And I hadn't even heard of him before this. Maybe this is a breakthrough type of.

[Jason Moore]

You know, it's like at that point, it's like, oh, I'm disappointed. Now he's Brooks.

[Mike Wright]

Why didn't you tell me about him?

[Jason Moore]

3. Running back.

[Mike Wright]

He's a Dallas fan.

[Jason Moore]

Zeke led the league in rushing last year. He led his rookie year. And all three years he has led the league in rushing yards per game. The targets. Just to get a better picture of how crazy it was. 95 targets, that's fifth at the position. That's four fewer targets than Alvin Camara. Super Comario.

[Mike Wright]

The pass gets running man quietly.

[Jason Moore]

And here's what happens with touchdowns on the ground. His rookie year, he had a rushing touchdown every 21 and a half attempts. The next year he had a rushing touchdown every 34 attempts. Last year, every 50 attempts. He had a rushing touchdown, which is, that doesn't, that doesn't make sense statistically. That is the outlier to me. And I think that Zeke bounces back and, and if, man, if that receiving work is still given to him this year, it's, it would be a spectacle. I think it's close to impossible that he's not the number one running back.

[Andy Holloway]

Number one.

[Mike Wright]

Saquon has something to say about that.

[Jason Moore]

Because it's still an if.

[Mike Wright]

If Zeke gets it, Saquon will at number one on our top 10. On today's show, he is the number one overall by average draft position right now. If you look at high stakes leagues, he is number one overall. McCaffrey number two, by the way, in NFFC. No. Very low risk with a player that receives 121 targets, 91 receptions, 700 plus passing or receiving yards, four touchdowns through the air last season, rookie season did everything and more that you could ever want From Saquon Barkley, fourth player ever with 2000 scrimmage yards, 90 catches and 1300 rushing yards. People want to find a reason to fade him because of the kind of bitter beer face you get when you think of the Giants, which is easy to do. You think of the team, you think of the offense, you think of Odell Beckham Jr. And you think of what happens to offenses when there's quarterback controversy or a young quarterback comes in and it's kind of a look away situation. Right?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, that's definitely a legitimate fear. And this is why he's, I mean, we're, you know, picking fights here. But he's my number two, not my number one. How dare me?

[Mike Wright]

How dare me.

[Jason Moore]

But you know, there are concerns because the offense is bad. If they were to go away from Eli amazingly, I think it would still be bad for the team. In the short term. Maybe that's wrong.

[Mike Wright]

No, I think you're 100% right.

[Jason Moore]

But Odell Beckham being out makes a huge difference. We've already seen it, right? Odell Beckham missed several games last year. We're talking five fewer fantasy points per game for Saquon in those games that Odell Beckham missed. So, you know, look, if, if he's not moving the chains and Golden Tate probably not just picking up the slack. It's.

[Mike Wright]

He'll pick up some of it though, right? Those are unexpected misses. You didn't have Tate around.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he'll, he'll pick up a little. But if you, you know, if he misses three or four fantasy points game and you're comparing it because if you want Zeke, you better take him with that number one spot. So, I mean, really, when we're talking right now, this player, we're only talking to the people who are at the number one pick. And they can pick anyone in the league. Who you're going to go with? Personally, I'm going to go with Zeke.

[Mike Wright]

I think, to speak briefly about your point about Eli versus Daniel Jones. I will say this on record, it will be worse with Daniel Jones. It will not be a better situation. Eli Manning and all of his problems and all of his issues last year, 4,200 passing yards, multiple 300 yard games throughout the season. That's not what you're going to get with Daniel Jones.

[Jason Moore]

It's not like Daniel Jones has the potential to say, maybe he checks down more.

[Mike Wright]

No.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

It's impossible.

[Jason Moore]

You already know Eli's going to throw the ball every single time that a guy gets in his face. Saquon. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And you've seen a season with Saquon succeeding on a losing team with Eli. So if the, if the season is going bad now, the problem is if it goes that bad, Daniel Jones probably will take the field. Which could be an argument in favor of McCaffrey or Zeke or Camara.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Mike Wright]

For that variable little bit of a consistency problem.

[Jason Moore]

The one spot of how can things go wrong for me, for Barkley, it just comes down to his breakaway percentage. And the, his elusive, how elusive he is isn't going to go away. But I mean, he was, he was tops of the league, tops for running backs when it comes to his breakaway percentage. And these huge runs that turn into ESPN top 10 highlights because it's a, it's a 50 yard touchdown run if those come down, which I do expect them to come down a bit, but if they come down too much, that's just where you end up.

[Mike Wright]

Disappointed with Barkley, I'm looking at his game log. These are separate games. Long of 68. Long of 78. Long of 51. Long of 50.

[Jason Moore]

Yep.

[Mike Wright]

Long of 68.

[Jason Moore]

Wow. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Look, the thing is, I think he could probably do it for a couple more years, the way AP would do that for a few years.

[Jason Moore]

And that's why I'm saying I'm not fading him at all. But if, if there's a place where you're disappointed because you took him number one and he ends up as the number six, the number seven running back, that's the area of the game that I see that doesn't hold up.

Do you think that the reason he has such great breakaway potential is because, because they're, they're like challenging him to run the ball. So the whole defense is up at the line 100% and if he breaks through, there's no one deep. Worried about the deep game.

Yeah. And you're the safety blitz man. Well, if you run that on Madden and you, you bring everyone in and the running back just happens to stay up. And here's a free 50 yard touchdown.

[Mike Wright]

He's also going to continue to have big plays in the screen game the way Gurley did in Los Angeles.

[Jason Moore]

He's also very fast.

[Mike Wright]

He's really good player.

[Jason Moore]

Strong.

[Mike Wright]

Quadriceps are bigger than my entire body. So to run it back, number 10, Todd Gurley. Number nine, David Johnson. Number eight, Devonte Adams. Number seven, Julio Touchdown Jones. Number six, DeAndre Hopkins.

[Jason Moore]

That's our best nickname of all time.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it's so innovative. Number five, Melvin Gordon. Number four, Alvin Kamara. Number three, Christian McCaffrey. Number two, Zuki Elliott. And number one, Saquon Barkley. Oh, gosh. Really? I was rapping here. Voice of public opinion.

[Jason Moore]

But where's Pat Mahomes?

This wasn't a top 10 quarterback countdown.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, get out of here.

[Jason Moore]

Quarterback drafter.

[Mike Wright]

Did you get some Tyreek Tyreek news you wanted to bring to the table?

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

All right. Well, before we shut things down, let's.

[Jason Moore]

Do this Pristine deal of the day.

[Mike Wright]

All right, It's a player not in our top 10. But yesterday on pristineauction.com a signed Le'Veon Bell jersey. A Jets jersey, $73.71 purchased by Adam Gaze. Oh, no, wait, that was not Adam Gaze. But every single day, we always bring you like a deal of the day. There are hundreds that sell each and every [e-mail] and if you use the registration code ballers on sign up, you get five bucks towards your first sports memorabilia purchase. You can sign up.

[Jason Moore]

It's free to sign up, free to bid. You only. You only pay if you win. So make a bid on an item. If you say, I want to see if I can snag this for 40 bucks.

[Mike Wright]

I wish that worked with fantasy league buy ins. Like I only pay if I win. You know what I mean?

[Jason Moore]

That's a good return.

It would not work very well for the fantasy payouts.

[Mike Wright]

Nah, that's true.

[Jason Moore]

Look, you can do that because get 10 bucks back. Yeah, like it's a $20 league.

[Mike Wright]

I put in 20, I won 20.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for tuning in, Foot Clan. We will see you next week. Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another edition of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Don't forget to visit us on the web at www.thefantasyfootballers.com and follow us on Twitter Heffballers.