Podcast Summary: Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode Title: Top 10 Countdown + Stash the Smash
Release Date: July 6, 2019
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

Introduction and Setup

The episode kicks off with light-hearted banter among the hosts, reflecting their camaraderie and setting an engaging tone for the discussion. Mike Wright humorously compares fantasy football preparation to building a sturdy house, emphasizing the importance of using reliable draft resources:

Mike Wright [00:01]: "The foolish man built his house upon the sand and the wise man built his house upon the rock... your foundation for an incredible season will be solidified."

This analogy underscores the podcast’s commitment to providing listeners with robust fantasy football insights.

Top 10 Countdown

The core of the episode revolves around a detailed Top 10 countdown of fantasy football players. Each player is analyzed based on their performance, average draft position (ADP), risk ratings, and potential impact for the upcoming season.

Number 10: Todd Gurley (Los Angeles Rams)

Overview:
Todd Gurley is recognized for his outstanding performance in previous seasons, yet there's growing concern about his sustainability due to potential workload reductions and injury risks.

Key Points:

• Performance Metrics: Last season, Gurley amassed 17 rushing touchdowns in 14 games, showcasing his explosive potential.

  Mike Wright [15:52]: "17 touchdowns on the ground in 14 games."

• Risk Assessment: With an ADP in the middle of the second round and a high risk rating of 6/10, there's apprehension about Gurley's long-term health and workload management.

  Mike Wright [16:04]: "How does the pendulum swing too far on Gurley?"

• Strategic Considerations: While Gurley remains a lucrative pick, the hosts debate whether his peak performance is sustainable or if his value might wane as efficiency declines.

  Jason Moore [17:03]: "I think the days of his dominant number one are just done."

Conclusion:
Gurley is a high-reward but high-risk option. Fantasy managers should weigh his explosive touchdown potential against the likelihood of reduced usage and injury concerns.

Number 9: David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals)

Overview:
David Johnson has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly after the Cardinals revamped their offensive strategy, making him a valuable asset despite past inconsistencies.

Key Points:

• Improved Performance: Post-coaching changes, Johnson improved his receiving yards and attempts, indicating better integration into the offense.

  Jason Moore [23:53]: "His yards per carry went from 3.16 up to almost 4."

• Consistency and Role: As a pass-catching back, Johnson offers dual-threat capabilities, but his value is closely tied to the offensive line's performance and overall team dynamics.

  Mike Wright [22:32]: "He is the workhorse, 258 carries last year, 50 receptions on the worst possible offense."

• Risk Factors: The primary concern revolves around the effectiveness of the Cardinals' offense and how much it can sustain Johnson's involvement without diminishing his fantasy output.

  Jason Moore [24:52]: "If the offense collapses, then David Johnson will not return at 105 overall."

Conclusion:
David Johnson remains a solid pick, especially in leagues that reward receptions, provided the Cardinals' offense maintains its productivity.

Number 8: Davante Adams (Green Bay Packers)

Overview:
Davante Adams is lauded for his exceptional performance and reliability, making him a top-tier wide receiver with minimal risk.

Key Points:

• Consistent Targeting: Adams boasts 111 receptions, 13 touchdowns, and 169 targets, highlighting his integral role in the Packers' offense.

  Mike Wright [22:12]: "111 receptions, 13 touchdowns, 169 targets, which is unbelievable."

• Low Risk Rating: With a low risk rating, Adams is considered a safe and high-reward selection in drafts.

  Mike Wright [26:17]: "His risk rating is low because this guy gets targeted over and over and over again."

• Potential Downsides: The only minor concern is his concussion history, which could potentially limit his playing time.

  Jason Moore [30:09]: "He's gotten a few big hits to the head where if he suffered another concussion this year, he could be missing major time."

Conclusion:
Davante Adams is a highly reliable and high-performing wide receiver, making him a staple in many fantasy lineups with minimal downside.

Number 7: Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons)

Overview:
Julio Jones remains a dominant wide receiver with strong performance metrics, though his ADP reflects some market uncertainty.

Key Points:

• Performance Consistency: Over the past five years, Jones has consistently ranked between second and eighth at his position, with impressive yardage and touchdown stats.

  Mike Wright [30:26]: "Julio Jones, finishing eighth, second, sixth, fourth and fifth at the position."

• Team Offense Dynamics: The Falcons' stable offensive scheme, combined with an underrated quarterback like Matt Ryan, provides Jones with ample opportunities to excel.

  Mike Wright [31:39]: "The Atlanta offense has predictable pieces to it. An underrated quarterback in Matt Ryan."

• Draft Strategy: While Adams might be favored, Julio's safe floor based on high target volume and yardage makes him a valuable pick, especially in scenarios where touchdown consistency is key.

  Jason Moore [33:32]: "He's just a matter of when it comes to the safe play volume over touchdowns."

Conclusion:
Julio Jones is a dependable wide receiver with high target volume and yardage, making him an excellent choice for consistent fantasy points.

Number 6: DeAndre Hopkins (Houston Texans)

Overview:
DeAndre Hopkins is regarded as one of the elite wide receivers in fantasy football, known for his high target share and touchdown potential.

Key Points:

• Elite Performance: Hopkins led the league with 115 receptions, 1500+ yards, and 11 touchdowns last season, establishing himself as a top-tier receiver.

  Mike Wright [34:23]: "11 touchdowns, 163 targets, 1500 plus yards, 115 receptions."

• Risk Assessment: Even with team dynamics that could influence his target distribution, Hopkins' consistent performance and skill set keep his risk rating low.

  Mike Wright [36:16]: "Hopkins is universally seen as the number one wide receiver."

• Potential Challenges: The primary concern is the potential for other receivers like QT and Will Fuller to vie for targets, which could dilute Hopkins' fantasy output slightly.

  Jason Moore [35:41]: "There are players... worth a target from Deshaun Watson."

Conclusion:
DeAndre Hopkins remains a premier wide receiver choice in fantasy drafts, offering a high ceiling with minimal risk.

Number 5: Melvin Gordon (Los Angeles Chargers)

Overview:
Melvin Gordon is recognized for his efficiency and versatility, making him a valuable running back option despite some injury concerns.

Key Points:

• Efficiency and Versatility: Gordon achieved a remarkable 5 yards per carry last season, coupled with 10 touchdowns and 50 receptions, showcasing his dual-threat capability.

  Mike Wright [37:27]: "10 touchdowns, 50 receptions, 175 carries. Monster efficiency improvements."

• Risk Rating: With a risk rating of 4/10, concerns primarily stem from his injury history and potential workload fluctuations.

  Mike Wright [41:12]: "His risk rating is a 4 in our ultimate draft kit the last 3 years."

• Strategic Value: Gordon's high efficiency and touchdown potential make him a reliable pick, especially when considering the Chargers' offensive dynamics that favor his usage.

  Jason Moore [38:30]: "His efficiency's through the roof. He has to stay healthy."

Conclusion:
Melvin Gordon is a high-efficiency running back with significant upside, making him a strong mid-tier pick for fantasy managers seeking reliability and touchdown potential.

Number 4: Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints)

Overview:
Alvin Kamara is celebrated for his exceptional pass-catching abilities, making him a top choice in PPR (Point Per Reception) leagues with his balanced rushing and receiving contributions.

Key Points:

• Dual Threat Capability: Kamara's 81 receptions and 709 receiving yards, along with four receiving touchdowns, make him a versatile fantasy asset.

  Mike Wright [41:17]: "81 receptions, 709 receiving yards, four touchdowns through the air."

• High Fantasy Value: In half-point leagues, his pass-catching prowess nearly double his rushing value, enhancing his overall fantasy scoring potential.

  Mike Wright [42:15]: "In a half point per reception league it's worth almost double that of a rushing attempt."

• Team Offense and Handling: The Saints' offensive strategy heavily relies on Kamara, ensuring he maintains a significant role both in the running and passing game.

  Jason Moore [43:31]: "They're going to keep doing it. If you wanted to look at a player, Alvin Kamara is every bit deserving of."

Conclusion:
Alvin Kamara is a top-tier running back, especially in PPR formats, thanks to his substantial receiving role and consistent involvement in the Saints' offensive scheme.

Number 3: Christian McCaffrey (Carolina Panthers)

Overview:
Christian McCaffrey continues to dominate fantasy football with his unparalleled versatility, amassing impressive rushing and receiving stats that make him a perennial top pick.

Key Points:

• Outstanding Performance: McCaffrey registered 219 carries for over 1,000 yards, seven rushing touchdowns, and an additional 107 receptions for 867 yards and six receiving touchdowns.

  Mike Wright [45:31]: "219 carries over a thousand yards, seven touchdowns on the ground... 107 passes for 867 yards."

• Workhorse Role and Durability: Despite his heavy usage, McCaffrey remains remarkably durable, missing zero snaps in four games last season.

  Mike Wright [45:38]: "He missed no snaps, zero snaps in four games last year."

• Potential Risks: The primary concerns revolve around maintaining his high workload without overextending his physical limits, although his youth and physical condition mitigate these risks.

  Jason Moore [46:42]: "He's 23 years old... he's going to be able to handle it."

Conclusion:
Christian McCaffrey remains an elite fantasy running back due to his dual-threat ability and consistent involvement in both the running and passing games, although managers should monitor his workload to ensure continued performance.

Number 2: Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys)

Overview:
Ezekiel Elliott fortifies his position as a top fantasy running back with his extensive usage in both rushing and receiving, making him a reliable and high-scoring asset.

Key Points:

• Dual Usage: Elliott utilized 300 carries for 1,400 yards and six rushing touchdowns, alongside 77 receptions, marking his significance in the Cowboys' offensive strategy.

  Mike Wright [48:36]: "300 carries, 1400 yards, six touchdowns... 77 receptions."

• High Target Share: His involvement in the passing game has increased, enhancing his PPR value significantly.

  Jason Moore [49:26]: "Christian McCaffrey had 124 targets. Zeke became a PPR guy."

• Consistency and Reliability: Elliott's performance has been steady, with minimal fluctuation in his weekly outputs, making him a dependable choice for fantasy lineups.

  Mike Wright [39:35]: "He'll never be in the fours. He's either in the threes or the fives."

• Potential Challenges: While Elliott's role is secure, any decline in the Cowboys' offensive efficiency or injuries could impact his fantasy value, although such scenarios remain unlikely given his track record.

  Jason Moore [51:05]: "He's going to get the workload. He's game script proof because of his passing work."

Conclusion:
Ezekiel Elliott stands as a top fantasy running back due to his extensive use in both the rushing and passing games, combined with his consistent performance and reliability.

Number 1: Saquon Barkley (New York Giants)

Overview:
Saquon Barkley claims the top spot in the countdown, thanks to his explosive performance and dual-threat capability. Despite playing for a struggling offense, his individual metrics remain elite.

Key Points:

• Outstanding Output: Barkley achieved 2,000 scrimmage yards, 90 catches, and 1,300 rushing yards in his rookie season, cementing his status as a fantasy powerhouse.

  Jason Moore [47:50]: "He's the fourth player ever with 2,000 scrimmage yards, 90 catches and 1,300 rushing yards."

• Dual Threat and Explosive Plays: Barkley’s ability to excel both on the ground and through the air makes him exceptionally valuable in PPR formats.

  Mike Wright [54:48]: "If you think about the Giants offense and the QB situation... he's still going to make plays."

• Team Dynamics and Concerns: Playing for the Giants poses challenges due to the team's offensive struggles and quarterback uncertainties, which could affect Barkley's ceiling. However, his breakaway speed and receiving ability offer a buffer against these issues.

  Jason Moore [54:10]: "Odell Beckham being out makes a huge difference... he still has breakaway potential."

• Comparative Analysis: When compared to other top running backs like Christian McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott, Barkley's high touchdown potential and versatility give him an edge, despite the offensive inefficiencies of the Giants.

  Jason Moore [52:44]: "The one spot of how can things go wrong for me with Barkley is his breakaway percentage."

Conclusion:
Saquon Barkley leads the countdown as a top fantasy running back due to his exceptional dual-threat capabilities and explosive play potential. While team dynamics present some risks, his individual talent ensures he remains a top-tier fantasy asset.

News and Notes

Beyond the Top 10 Countdown, the hosts discuss several relevant NFL updates that impact fantasy football strategies:

Josh Jacobs Contract Negotiations

Overview:
Running back Josh Jacobs of the Raiders remains unsigned before training camp, leading to speculation about his role and future with the team.

Key Points:

• Contract Dispute: Negotiations stalled over signing bonuses, causing uncertainty about Jacobs' participation in Hard Knocks and the start of training camp.

  Mike Wright [08:43]: "Running back Josh Jacobs remains unsigned and negotiations have not been going well."

• Implications for Fantasy: If Jacobs does not make the team, fantasy managers may need to consider alternatives or adjust their drafts accordingly.

  Jason Moore [10:15]: "You better put a little flag to check in on Josh Jacobs, how he's doing."

Conclusion:
Fantasy managers should monitor Jacobs' status closely, as his absence could significantly impact the Raiders' running back depth and overall team performance.

Smash Jackson and Paul Perkins Updates

Overview:
Running back Smash Jackson of the Giants is making a comeback from injury, raising questions about his role as a backup and potential handcuff for Saquon Barkley.

Key Points:

• Recovery Announcement: Jackson is returning to the field after a year-long injury, positioning him as a reliable backup.

  Jason Moore [11:23]: "Smash Jackson is back on the field."

• Handcuff Strategy: While some fantasy managers may choose to stash Jackson as a handcuff for Barkley, others argue that his role remains limited and separate.

  Jason Moore [11:44]: "I'd rather stash the Smash quick cash."

Conclusion:
Smash Jackson's return presents a potential backup option for fantasy managers, though his utility may primarily serve handcuff purposes rather than being a standalone starter.

John Ross Reinvention Efforts

Overview:
Wide receiver John Ross of the Giants is attempting to reinvent his career, including changing his jersey number to gain a fresh start.

Key Points:

• Career Reset: Ross aims to overhaul his image and gameplay to better fit into the Giants' offensive schemes.

  Mike Wright [12:11]: "John Ross is hoping to reinvent himself this year... changing numbers maybe so he hopes we as fantasy owners don't recognize him."

• Fantasy Impact: Improved performance and integration into the offense could enhance Ross's fantasy value, making him a sleeper target for savvy managers.

  Jason Moore [13:19]: "He's got the opportunity and he's going to need to."

Conclusion:
John Ross's efforts to reinvent himself could lead to increased fantasy relevance if he successfully adapts to the Giants' offensive plans and secures a more prominent role in the passing game.

Stash the Smash and Merchandise Highlights

Towards the end of the episode, the hosts briefly touch upon merchandise promotions and giveaways, encouraging listeners to engage with the podcast's sponsors for fantasy football gear and memorabilia. While not central to the episode's content, these segments offer listeners opportunities to enhance their fantasy experience through exclusive deals.

Final Thoughts and Takeaways

The episode provides comprehensive insights into the top fantasy football players, blending statistical analysis with strategic considerations. The hosts emphasize the importance of balancing high-reward selections with potential risks, encouraging listeners to make informed decisions based on their league formats and individual player projections.

Key Takeaways:

• Top Performers: Players like Davante Adams, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffrey stand out due to their dual-threat capabilities and consistent performance.
• Risk vs. Reward: High-performing players with injury concerns, such as Todd Gurley, require careful consideration to balance their potential upside against potential pitfalls.
• Team Dynamics: Understanding team offensive schemes and quarterback stability is crucial in assessing player value, especially for players on struggling teams.
• Stay Informed: Keeping abreast of NFL news and updates is essential for adjusting fantasy strategies and optimizing draft picks.

By leveraging the detailed analysis and discussions presented in this episode, fantasy football managers can enhance their draft strategies, make informed player selections, and ultimately increase their chances of winning their leagues.

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Wright [00:01]: "You are the mighty redwood. Your opponents are one ply toilet paper."
• Jason Moore [25:38]: "I am not fading Saquon, and I'm not fading DJ because you're just saying."
• Mike Wright [51:38]: "The pass gets running man quietly."
• Jason Moore [56:07]: "He's going to die. They have to, like, not an option. They have to lower his volume."

All timestamps correspond to the points discussed within the episode, providing context and attribution for the insights shared by the hosts.