Top 10 QB Rankings + “My Guy” Retry, Preseason Insight

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary Episode: Top 10 QB Rankings + “My Guy” Retry, Preseason Insight
Release Date: August 12, 2019

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1. Introduction and Preseason Recap

The Fantasy Footballers kick off the episode with reflections on their recent live draft event, the “Sleeper Bowl,” which featured celebrities like Carl Anthony Towns, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Ninja, and Zac Efron. Andy Holloway humorously criticizes Ninja for “sniping picks” during the draft, while Mike Wright and Jason Moore commend the competitive nature of the event.

Andy Holloway [02:17]: “Shame on you, Ninja, for sniping picks by watching our stream.”

2. “My Guy” Update: Rescinding Dante Pettis and Selecting Christian Kirk

A significant portion of the episode focuses on the annual “My Guy” segment, where each host endorses three players they have full confidence in for the upcoming season.

• Rescinding Dante Pettis:
  Andy Holloway announces the removal of Dante Pettis from his “My Guy” selections due to inconsistent preseason performances and limited opportunities to establish himself.

  Andy Holloway [05:38]: “Just because I'm rescinding that tag from Dante Pettis this morning does not mean that Dante Pettis doesn't have the potential to break out.”

• Introducing Christian Kirk:
  Christian Kirk steps in as the new “My Guy,” praised for his outstanding reception rates and reliability within the Arizona Cardinals' offense.

  Andy Holloway [07:30]: “He is a stud and I am convinced that he is the number one in this offense.”

  Jason Moore adds his support, highlighting Kirk's potential to become the primary wide receiver target.

  Jason Moore [06:53]: “This could be a very big motivational tactic being used because I think that he's been playing soft and that's not what Shanahan wants.”

3. Preseason Takeaways: Player Performances and Injuries

The hosts delve into various preseason performances, highlighting promising players and discussing potential breakout candidates.

• Darwin Thompson (Kansas City Chiefs):
  Darwin Thompson shows promise but remains behind starter Damien Williams. Mike Wright suggests he could thrive if given more opportunities.

  Mike Wright [10:12]: “If somehow Darwin got an opportunity, I think he would succeed far more than Carlos Hyde would in this offense.”

• Devin Singletary:
  Jason Moore expresses enthusiasm for Devin Singletary's versatility and potential to excel in Buffalo's offense.

  Jason Moore [10:43]: “Devin Singletary would be my takeaway that I'm keeping my eyes on rest of the preseason.”

• Dalvin Cook (Minnesota Vikings):
  Dalvin Cook's skill set is appreciated, but there's caution regarding the depth chart and offensive strategy.

  Andy Holloway [14:24]: “He has the best hands on the team.”

4. News and Injury Updates

The hosts provide a comprehensive roundup of NFL news and injuries that could impact fantasy drafts.

• Antonio Brown’s Helmet Dispute:
  Antonio Brown's ongoing helmet issue with the Raiders has significantly affected his draft stock, moving him from second to later rounds.

  Andy's Summary [16:39]: “His ADP was in the second round until the feet and the helmet stuff, it's later now in the third, fourth round even.”

• Tevin Coleman (Minnesota Vikings):
  Mike Wright urges listeners not to overlook Tevin Coleman, emphasizing his potential role increase.

  Mike Wright [18:05]: “If you are drafting right now and he goes around his ADP, I would be snatching him up.”

• Injuries to Other Players:
  Updates on players like Raheem Mostert, Nikhil Harry, Paris Campbell, and Anthony Miller are discussed, highlighting their injury statuses and potential impacts.

  Andy Holloway [19:38]: “Anthony Miller suffered a sprained ankle.”

5. Top 10 Quarterback Rankings

A detailed discussion on the top 10 quarterbacks for the 2019 fantasy football season anchors the episode. Each quarterback is analyzed based on past performance, current team dynamics, and projected impact.

1. Patrick Mahomes (QB1)

   • Pros: Dynamic offense, elite receiving corps including Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins.
   • Cons: Potential regression in touchdown numbers.
   • Projections:

     Mike Wright [33:37]: “I have him at 38 touchdowns.” Jason Moore [33:55]: “I have Patrick Mahomes right now throwing for 42.”

   Andy Holloway [32:04]: “Offense is going to be great.”

2. Aaron Rodgers (QB2)

   • Pros: High completion percentage, consistent yardage.
   • Cons: Questions about red-zone efficiency and age-related decline.
   • Projections:

     Mike Wright [35:24]: “An investment in him returning to what he's been.” Jason Moore [36:15]: “I am lacking confidence that he's going back and be that guy.”

3. Deshaun Watson (QB3)

   • Pros: Dual-threat capability, high touchdown potential.
   • Cons: Offensive line consistency remains a factor.
   • Projections:

     Andy Holloway [39:12]: “There's a lot to like about Deshaun Watson.”

4. Carson Wentz (QB4)

   • Pros: Improved offensive weapons, post-injury optimism.
   • Cons: Concerns about rushing limitations post-ACL injury.
   • Projections:

     Jason Moore [41:12]: “He’s got such a great name...”

5. Andrew Luck (QB5)

   • Pros: Proven track record, high offensive efficiency.
   • Cons: Injury history and uncertain return timeline.
   • Projections:

     Andy Holloway [44:20]: “If he's on the field.”

6. Matt Ryan (QB6)

   • Pros: High passing yards, strong offensive support with new receivers.
   • Cons: Inconsistent touchdown numbers.
   • Projections:

     Jason Moore [45:27]: “He has to throw a lot of touchdowns.” Mike Wright [48:33]: “He definitely increases the odds that Matt Ryan will be up over that 30 touchdown mark.”

7. Jared Goff (QB7)

   • Pros: Elite offensive weapons, potential for growth.
   • Cons: Underperforming in high-pressure games last season.
   • Projections:

     Mike Wright [51:16]: “He is my favorite late round quarterback.”

8. Baker Mayfield (QB8)

   • Pros: High productivity potential, improved offensive line.
   • Cons: Overdrafted in drafts, inconsistent rushing ability compared to others.
   • Projections:

     Andy Holloway [51:55]: “He's going to have a very productive season.” Jason Moore [53:43]: “He is a good fantasy quarterback. A top 10 fantasy quarterback.”

9. Cam Newton (QB9)

   • Pros: Exceptional rushing ability, potential for high-yardage games.
   • Cons: Past injury concerns, inconsistent passing performance.
   • Projections:

     Andy Holloway [54:17]: “He's in the ninth round.”

10. Drew Brees (QB10)

    • Pros: Consistent yardage, reliable touchdowns.
    • Cons: Lack of rushing ability, potential decline in performance.
    • Projections:

      Jason Moore [59:28]: “He has enough yardage, enough offense behind him.”

6. Bust Potential and Draft Advice

The hosts identify potential busts within the top 10 rankings, advising fantasy managers to be cautious.

• Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz:
  Both are highlighted as possible busts due to inconsistent performance and overvaluation in drafts.

  Jason Moore [61:14]: “Andrew Luck is the guy that comes to mind with the injury.” Andy Holloway [61:52]: “I think it's probably Baker because he's being drafted at QB5.”

7. Closing Remarks

The episode wraps up with acknowledgments to sponsors and reminders for listeners to engage with their community platforms.

Mike Wright [62:11]: “Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast.”

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Andy Holloway on Rescinding "My Guy":

  “Just because I'm rescinding that tag from Dante Pettis this morning does not mean that Dante Pettis doesn't have the potential to break out." ([05:38])

• Jason Moore on Christian Kirk:

  “I think that he's been playing soft and that's not what Shanahan wants. Shanahan wants him to go out there like a killer.” ([06:53])

• Mike Wright on Tevin Coleman:

  “If you are drafting right now and he goes around his ADP, I would be snatching him up.” ([18:05])

• Andy Holloway on Patrick Mahomes:

  “Patrick Mahomes. Yeah, he’s number one on the list.” ([33:20])

• Jason Moore on Aaron Rodgers:

  “I am lacking confidence that he's going back and be that guy who... averaging 40 touchdowns since 2014.” ([36:15])

• Jason Moore on Jared Goff:

  “Jared Goff... he is my favorite late round quarterback.” ([49:59])

• Andy Holloway on Matt Ryan:

  “Matt Ryan is great. I don't think Matt Ryan gets the national recognition that he deserves.” ([48:33])

• Mike Wright on Baker Mayfield:

  “That's still very good.” ([52:24])

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Key Takeaways for Fantasy Managers

• Prioritize Late-Round Quarterbacks:
  The hosts emphasize waiting until the mid to late rounds to draft quarterbacks, as early picks often don't perform to expectations.

• Monitor Injury Reports:
  Keeping an eye on player health, especially quarterbacks like Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, is crucial for making informed draft decisions.

• Value Defensive and Running Back Steals:
  Players like Tevin Coleman and Devin Singletary are highlighted as excellent late-round picks with high upside.

• Adjust Rankings Based on League Scoring:
  The importance of understanding your league's scoring system, particularly the value of passing touchdowns, can significantly influence quarterback rankings.

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the Fantasy Footballers' episode on QB rankings and preseason insights. It provides valuable information for both seasoned fantasy managers and newcomers, ensuring they are well-equipped for their upcoming drafts.

Transcript

[Mike Wright]

Hey, Foot Clan. Before we start today's show, I want to remind you about fantasychamps.com the place to get all of your fantasy football hardware. Belts, trophies, rings, draft boards. And guess what? Right now, if you head over there, you use that promo code, Baller Draft. With the purchase of any trophy or belt, you are going to get a free Fantasy Champs draft board. You draft in live, in person. You need that trophy and. And the draft board. Head over to fantasychamps.com use the promo code Baller Draft. This is Christian Kirk with the Arizona Cardinals, and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in. Welcome in to another episode of the Show. It's Tuesday, August 12th. This is the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Danny, Mike and Jason joining you.

[Mike Wright]

It's Monday, August 12th.

[Andy Holloway]

Why did I type Tuesday? I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

I'm Ron Burgundy.

[Andy Holloway]

Brooks has got. He's had a hard six, seven days with the doc.

[Mike Wright]

You just read Tuesday.

[Andy Holloway]

I did. What am I supposed to do? Know what day it is on my own. Feels like Tuesday. That's all I can say. I love it. I don't know. It's Monday, August 12th, as I. As I said. And this is the Fantasy Footballers.

[Mike Wright]

Brooks will now slither away into his shell.

[Jason Moore]

I see him going under the door right now, sliding under the crack.

[Andy Holloway]

Borland's taken over. He's got his calendar out.

[Jason Moore]

It probably feels later in the week because we were in here in the weekend.

[Andy Holloway]

It's true.

[Jason Moore]

Doing the awesome draft with juju.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we had a really, really good time on Saturday. Hopefully you were able to join us for it. If not, you can experience it on our YouTube.

[Mike Wright]

The sleeper bowl.

[Andy Holloway]

The sleeper bowl with Carl Anthony Towns and juju. Smith Schuster.

[Jason Moore]

Ninja.

[Andy Holloway]

Tim the Tap Man, Zac Efron. The big celebrity draft. It was a lot of fun. There's a lot of trash talking. I will say this. Shame on you, Ninja, for sniping picks by watching our stream, knowing what was going to happen between 90 seconds per pick, having to commentate the draft, and having people steal our picks because we had to talk about them, I would.

[Mike Wright]

Have done the same thing.

[Jason Moore]

He was stream sniping like a pro.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm still pretty happy with our team.

[Mike Wright]

I'm happy with our team. I'm happy with everyone's team, really. When you're going into a draft with. We're used to drafting with, like, listeners of the show industry people. You don't know where they're going to fall in fantasy football knowledge. And I would say it was a great success. It was a very competitive draft.

[Andy Holloway]

It actually, yeah, it was a fun draft. You didn't have early quarterbacks, you didn't have players off the board that you didn't expect. You had a handful of them, but it was, it was a good time. You can check that out on YouTube. You can follow the show the FFballers on Twitter. We appreciate each and every one of you who comes to comes to our table, listens to the show each and every day. Maybe you're driving to work, maybe you're working out. I've heard that's good for you. But we appreciate you, appreciate you subscribing, reviewing, supporting the podcast. We're going to start today's show with some more week one preseason takeaways. I also teased on the Twitter first time.

[Mike Wright]

This is breaking ground for the fantasy footballers. The first time in history. Now, to be fair, to be fair, I'm going to set the table for this. We did our My Guy episode, the annual show where we plant the flag. These are the three players that we love. We have confidence in these players. This episode, the past three years is where we say to do your football drafts, which is right around preseason week three. We've had more time to assimilate the information just due to scheduling and the fact that we could do this in front of a live crowd we like. Okay, let's go. Let's do this thing live. Early August, knowing there's a little bit of risk so far, I mean it's been sensational for me. Robbie Anderson news continues to be glowing.

[Andy Holloway]

Across the Carson news has been outstanding. Feel great about that.

[Mike Wright]

There is one particular feller that the news has not been so great.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, the last three years. We did the show on the 20th, the 22nd, the 31st of August and so I am making a formal pivots. I'm rescinding the my guy tag from Dante Pettis. Now, let me don't hear what I'm not saying. I don't because he's not a my guy. There are three my guys every year. Like Mike said, flag planting guys you have ultimate confidence in. Just because I'm rescinding that tag from Dante Pettis this morning does not mean that Dante Pettis doesn't have the potential to break out. He was 100% picked on the basis of his talent and the plays he's made on the field. He only has 27 career receptions, but right now, my guy does not return punts in the preseason. My guy does not have to still earn a starting spot in the middle of August. And that's the situation for Dante Pettis. You know who was not on the field for preseason game one? Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Tevin Coleman. You know who was Dante Pettis.

[Mike Wright]

And he was there for a while.

[Andy Holloway]

And you know what, 17 snaps and Kyle Shanahan came out afterwards. Why was Dante Pettis out there? Because we're trying to figure out who our starting wide receivers are. And some of the people that have been around body shot the 49ers camp have said it's been a rough camp for Dante Pettis. He's not winning 50, 50 balls and he should have established himself by now. That's all I'm saying. That's why it's being rescinded. He could still break out. And for those of you that went out and drafted him in the seventh round, congrats, that's fine.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, 100%. I still like Dante Pettis where he's being drafted, obviously, I would hope you still like him too. You're just taking the confidence of saying, this is one of my three players I'm fully, 100% confident in and taking it away. I still think he emerges as the number one wide receiver target for the San Francisco 49ers. I think he's talented. This could be a very big motivational tactic being used because I think that he's been playing soft and that's not what Shanahan wants. Shanahan wants him to go out there like a killer, grab the balls, especially the 50, 50 balls. There's been twice in camp where there's basically been a reception to Dante Pettis where a defender has come and I don't know if it would be considered a fumble or an interception, but ripped the ball out of his hands.

[Mike Wright]

This belongs to me now.

[Jason Moore]

And so I think this is really a motivational tactic saying, look, if you're going to be the guy, you have to go out there and just, you know, man up old school football and go.

[Andy Holloway]

Which means he still has. He has to do that now to earn that spot. He has to do it. Will he do it? Maybe he's got not a lot of competition there.

[Mike Wright]

But that's based off of the competition. Yes, Dante Pettis.

[Andy Holloway]

I have.

[Mike Wright]

I have not adjusted any of my Dante Pettis stats yet. Now, as things go along, we do, we update our stats all off season in the ultimate draft kit. But as of right now, he's still in that wide receiver two range for me.

[Andy Holloway]

So long story short, could have dug in, could have said, hey, he's my, my guy. No matter what we talk about on this show, new information, new facts, you got to have a new opinion. I feel like my opinion needed to change. We did that show early, so it's changing. My official my guy. I'm switching him out. Is Christian Kirk, wide receiver for the Arizona Cardinals. Couple minutes about Christian Kirk. Let me tell you why I love him for this season. I've been rising on him over the last several weeks. He was in consideration originally last year, rookie season for Christian Kirk. Three games with this guy named Sam Bradford who's still making five and a half million dollars this year. By the way, this is a historically awful offense that Christian Kirk began his career in. 902 plays they ran. That's 56 a game. The top end of the NFL on plays run per game was 70 a game. That's 224 additional plays per season. The Cardinals offense was atrocious. The quarterback play, the offensive line play, the pace of play. We know this.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

Despite the fact that the Cardinals put trash on the field by way of the offensive line and the play calling, he still put up almost 600 yards last year. Three touchdowns in 12 games as a rookie with Bradford and Rosen. And this is year two for Christian Kirk. He caught 65% of the targets thrown his way last year. That's a higher number than juju. That's a higher number than ab. That's higher than Devonte Adams. What's even more impressive, his success rate on contested targets, 85.7%. According to Matt Harmon's reception perception. He is a stud and I am convinced that he is the number one in this offense. The pace of play is going to jump tremendously. He has experience like Kyler Murray does in this specific offense. He's played with Kyler Murray before. And if you go back, just watch some of the highlights of Christian Kirk last year. He can make a small play into a big play very quickly. I think this is a year two leap. What does that mean? That means I think you've got wide receiver too in Christian Kirk this year. So he is my official, my guy change. I know. You guys stay tuned for next week. No, stop it. Yeah, this is where, now that you bring it up, if Christian Kirk goes down to injury next week, I'm going to lose my mind.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, well, I would expect nothing less from the fantasy reaper.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, well, there you go. Takeaways from the rest of the preseason one games. Guys talked about Pettis. What else stood out from the games through the weekend. I mean we talked about the Thursday games on Friday, but the other games through the weekend, I mean Darwin Thompson.

[Mike Wright]

You know Darwin Thompson, he is a good player.

[Andy Holloway]

Running back for the Kansas City Chiefs.

[Mike Wright]

Thank you. And he has the skill set that the Kansas City Chiefs like. But I mean it's, he's, he still has the same draft stock. The same players are still in front of him. Practice resumed today for the Chiefs. Damian Williams was on the field as the running back one. So if somehow Darwin got an opportunity, I think he would succeed. I think he would succeed far more than Carlos Hyde would in this offense. But it's a long ways away.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I agree that he doesn't have the opportunity yet. He has not been given that he is a clear backup. But I think that if he gets the opportunity he's going to succeed with it and I think he could succeed with it as well, if not better than Damian Williams. Darwin Thompson looked good to me. My big takeaway was there's a lot of rookie or for all intents and purposes, you know, rookie ish like Kalen Balaji running backs that you've got their opportunity and week one preseason, they all looked great beaten up on the second team defenses like and that's not a knock on them, it's a reality to check that, you know, most of these guys, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, Darwin Thompson, Caleb Belage, they looked really good but they were playing against, you know, the second stringers. I want week two, those are the guys, those four guys, those are who I'm watching. I really hope they're playing against someones next week, this coming weekend. And specifically the one guy that impressed me the most was Devin Singletary. I really did. I liked his film in college. I really was hoping he went to some team with an offensive mind. I wanted Sean Payton or Andy Reid or someone that could take his skill set and utilize it. I, I didn't like the landing spot with Buffalo, but I'm starting to come around because I do want to run the ball and I think he's a hyper, talented back. He looked good, you know, in receiving he looked good honestly. He was pounding it hard through the middle. He was getting to the edge. He was catching the ball. He was like this well rounded back in very limited work. So Devin Singletary would be my takeaway that I'm keeping my eyes on rest of the preseason.

[Mike Wright]

An update. Adam Thielen is still a very Good wide receiver. If you didn't see that highlight, it was a sensational catch, which was followed up by. It's this. This is not an overreaction, not reading into. Because it was Alexander Madison playing as the starting running back. But the fact that they were on the one and they went to a play action and then it was just a dump off to Madison. It was a passing play on the one to the running back. That's very interesting for Dalvin if that's going to be in the repertoire.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I was gonna say Mike Boone had a great showing in that game.

[Mike Wright]

He always does.

[Andy Holloway]

64 yards.

[Mike Wright]

Mike Boone is a preseason hero.

[Andy Holloway]

24 years old, though. What I'm saying is I don't believe Madison is guaranteed to have that handcuff role in Minnesota. I do not think that that is a guarantee.

[Jason Moore]

And I firmly do and I am firmly on the side with Andy where there's no way that we can. I can't imagine that being a guarantee that it's Madison's right now. I think they don't know who the official backup is.

[Andy Holloway]

You also had, I mean, just to circle back to the 49ers. Debo Samuel had a great game. Jalen Hurd had a great game, two touchdowns. Both players are worth late round shots to me to see if somebody emerges. Trent Taylor, injured, going to be out an extended period of time. There are targets to go around beyond George Kittle. Predicting them might be difficult, but why not see what you got? I mean, Hurd may have a lot of opportunities around the goal line.

[Mike Wright]

Well, let's. Let's talk real quick about George Kittle. Yes, the lack of confidence in Dante Pettis. Has that increased your confidence in George Kittle? Because we all. Kittle is a great player, but what he did last year was very opportunistic. There was no one around like you said. Dante Pettis, the guy that we're talking about was 27 career receptions. Everybody in that wide receiver core was hurt. So George Kittle dominated. He also dominated the targets where it wasn't so clear that Kittle would get the same type of target share at all. But there is a clear lack of confidence in any of the wide receivers.

[Andy Holloway]

I told Jason in the studio a couple weeks ago how much I'm rising on George Kittle from a guaranteed output standpoint. I think Kittle is. Look, everybody gets that. There are a lot of tight ends in history that get that kind of opportunistic situation. Not many of them can break the record for yards on a season and do what he did. So, yes, I'm very, very confident in George Kittle this season.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I was going to say when Trent Taylor went down, everybody got a small bump up, you know, the Jalen Hurd and Debo Samuel. But the guy that I was most confident in saying, okay, we need a real, you know, Trent Taylor is that little safety valve. I think George Kittle is, you know, he's a guy that I've been avoiding in drafts up to this point. Just because he's very expensive, not because I don't think he's going to be good, but he's got to be good to justify that price.

[Mike Wright]

Got to be great.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, he's got to be great to justify that price. And I'm have, I'm like you, Andy. I'm having confidence switch because long time ago, early in the off season on a buy sell, I was selling Kittle and I think I'm buying.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think obviously Dallas Goddard in Philadelphia, he's missing the rest of the preseason. That will factor into your Zach Ertz confidence. Obviously. Ertz Kittle, two of the top three tight ends. We do have a top ten quarterback show today. And what day is it again, Brooks?

[Mike Wright]

Tuesday.

[Andy Holloway]

It's Monday. Monday. Okay. Well, we'll get into some news. First.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league presented by sleeper.

[Andy Holloway]

We haven't got to react to the Antonio Brown helmet news yet. Told the Raiders he won't play football again if the league doesn't let him wear his helmet. Then they, they went to court and they petitioned to let him wear the helmet. And then he said, if you don't let me wear the helmet and I get hurt in your new helmet, I'm going to sue you. Because this is how, this is how the offseason has gone for Antonio Brown. So Tom Brady came out this morning, says it's been a tough adjustment for him moving to this new helmet. He's worn the same helmet for the last four Super Bowls, 12 straight years. And then he's got to make the adjustment. He's like, eh, it just kind of sucks, but I got to do it. Antonio Brown doesn't seem willing to say this kind of sucks. I got to do it. He might.

[Jason Moore]

But yeah, I mean, when you're in a negotiation and something is really strong for you, you can say, I'm going to take my ball and go home. Whether or not he would do it if his bluff is called is really the question. And I would venture to believe that if they force him to change helmets, he will still play Football. I cannot imagine that his legacy, not to mention the money that he has coming his way, would just all vanish because of the helmet. So it is one thing where, when you're in a draft and there's other guys in the same tier. I'm definitely not drafting Antonio Brown right now because other guys don't carry some percentage risk of just retiring out of the blue. But I don't expect him to retire even if he loses the battle with the NFL.

[Andy Holloway]

His ADP was in the second round until the feet and the helmet stuff, it's later now in the third, fourth round even. I tend. I want to believe what you're saying. I mean, this is the same Antonio Brown that in an interview said he doesn't need football at all when they were debating and discussing this contract deal before he got traded. He's definitely a variable, but best wide receiver the last 10 years. So you're. That's what you're playing with. The Athletic is reporting, projecting that Jerick McKinnon will open 2019 on the injured reserve.

[Mike Wright]

Hey, Tevin Coleman.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Tevin Coleman looks like a, an ADP steal right now. We'll see if that persists.

[Mike Wright]

He was Tevin Coleman. Oh, but there was a time when he was Tevin Coleman. Oh, we went full.

[Andy Holloway]

We did. He hasn't gotten enough love because I love Matt Breida, right, because he's free at the end of draft. But Tevin Coleman right now, if he, he's a, what, fourth, fifth round pick, it's.

[Mike Wright]

It's going to go up. But if you are drafting right now and he goes around his adp, I would be snatching him up.

[Andy Holloway]

Raheem Mostar got hurt as well. So.

[Mike Wright]

Man, that guy, that backfield, we said.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, look how many guys they have. They didn't have that many. Aaron Jones return to practice. Calvin Ridley returned to practice. Duke Johnson isn't gonna practice because he has a hamstring, not noise. So there you go. Nikhil Harry left the game after a couple of nice catches. Tweaked his hamstring during practice. So we'll see what happens. Right now, Jacoby Myers is ahead of Nikhil Harry on the depth chart, which this is not a veteran getting a little nod. The new Jacoby Myers is a undrafted free agent wide receiver. Made many plays in the preseason game. Something to watch. Harry made plays in the game as well, but is banged up. So we'll see what happens. Paris Campbell's now missed two weeks of practice with a hamstring injury. Supposed to be close to Coming back?

[Mike Wright]

Well, they said he suffered a setback on Sunday.

[Andy Holloway]

Is this affecting how you view him in drafts right now? Like the late round shot on Paris Campbell. Would you.

[Mike Wright]

I wasn't taking the late round shot in redraft. I just. I don't like drafting rookie wide receivers unless it's something crazy like the San Francisco situation. But it's, It's. It's unfortunate, especially for. For Dynasty if you were counting on him early.

[Andy Holloway]

We'll get through the rest of this real quick. Anthony Miller suffered a sprained ankle. He also apparently tweeted he's fine twice and deleted it twice. So I don't know what that means.

[Mike Wright]

What?

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know. If he wanted to protect his adp, I have no idea.

[Mike Wright]

Well, sometimes you wake up, you're feeling alright.

[Andy Holloway]

It's like, I'm fine.

[Mike Wright]

Look, in the first thing and he.

[Andy Holloway]

Takes his first step, a lot of.

[Mike Wright]

Us, the first thing we do, we grab the phone. All right, well, catching up. Is there any news? No. Oh, I feel alright. Puts it down. Then he tries to stand up and he goes, I better delete that tweet.

[Jason Moore]

But it's the second time around that's really confusing.

[Mike Wright]

Well, look at the bubble bag.

[Jason Moore]

I am fine.

[Mike Wright]

Because the first thing you do after you get out of bed, well, the majority of people, I assume, we go to the bathroom and maybe he was sitting there. Oh, I feel great again. And then he restood up and oh, oh, I got to delete it again.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike has it figured out, Jason. Mike has seen the morning that he had.

[Mike Wright]

I'm just saying. I understand.

[Andy Holloway]

Couple more things. Antonio Callaway, wide receiver for the Browns, has been suspended four games for substance abuse policy. And he's hurt and he's banged up. Rashad Higgins. Any interest?

[Mike Wright]

No, because I didn't really have Antonio Callaway interest. I don't need the third wide receiver on that team.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Theo Riddick will miss six to eight weeks. Fractured his shoulder during the preseason game. Devonte Booker lives.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he does.

[Andy Holloway]

And then the Saints have released this guy. His name is Rashard Matthews.

[Mike Wright]

Why are we bringing up Rashard Matthews on this part?

[Andy Holloway]

We're only bringing it up because on the 18th of June, Jason, you and I made a water bet.

[Jason Moore]

Why do we do shows so early?

[Mike Wright]

We make these stupid bets.

[Andy Holloway]

And guess what? April through June, you said he'd make the roster.

[Jason Moore]

I did.

[Andy Holloway]

And now you're going to get. Now you're going to spin the wheel.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I'll spin the wheel. Congratulations. You really got me with that Rashad Matthews.

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, we've been bantering about Rashad Matthews for a couple of years. I've been trying to tell you he was, but you didn't want to believe it. And then a couple hype pieces. Chris Carson will catch the ball a lot more. This is the sound bit from Pete Carroll. Okay, we'll see what happens. He said he has the best hands on the team. That's what Carroll said.

[Jason Moore]

Said he could be a hand model.

[Andy Holloway]

Did he have, like, George Costanza?

[Mike Wright]

Did he have those hands last year?

[Andy Holloway]

Same ones.

[Mike Wright]

Same hands.

[Andy Holloway]

Didn't throw to him, though.

[Mike Wright]

He didn't. We're not. This is not a Frankenstein where he got him replaced.

[Andy Holloway]

No swippy, swappy.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, okay.

[Andy Holloway]

By the way, Jerry Jones believes Tony Pollard could carry the load in Dallas. This is the same Jerry Jones that said Tavon Austin would rule the world last year.

[Mike Wright]

Jerry Jones is just. Just running roughhouse on Zeke right now.

[Andy Holloway]

A little bit of hype this morning. Dan Campbell, AKA Guns Mahoney. Guns Mahoney's back from days past. That's the Saints tight end. Coach said it's pretty easy to see the impact Jared Cook has had during training camp. Some hype around him, quote, starring in training camp like a movie. I think he's got a great opportunity with Drew Brees. Do you care about this hype?

[Mike Wright]

I think Jason does because he's writing his name down. I think that's an up arrow. Jason has been so hesitant.

[Jason Moore]

I have been hesitant because we've seen tight ends come here and fail.

[Mike Wright]

We know what you're talking about, Jason. It is very Kobe Fleener related.

[Jason Moore]

Well, it's Kobe Fleener. It's the second time around with Ben Watson, but the first time around with Ben Watson was successful. It's really. It's a crapshoot, I think. I don't think it's a guarantee that Jared Cook is heavily utilized in this offense. This is not the old school Saints that had a crazy pass volume. They are a rush first team now, even though they have Drew Brees and Michael Thomas. But if it does land that way, I mean, you have to keep your eyes open to the possibility. There's plenty of tight ends who later in their career, you know, they switch teams or something. Delaney, Walker, even Greg Olson, you know, was. He was a Bear.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he was a Chicago Bear.

[Jason Moore]

And so if Jared Cook switches teams, he's not that old for a tight end. I think he's 30. He could. He could still make some noise this year.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, News and Notes brought to you 32 today by Sleeper Download the free app move your league to a modern platform with infinite customizations. We're going to get into our top 10 quarterbacks. That is today's show. Before we do so, I want to thank the sponsors that help keep this show going, including adt. Real Protection from ADT is personalized smart home security with a system that fits your unique needs. It's the latest innovation in smart home security. Everything from HD video, doorbells, high def, indoor and outdoor cameras, smart locks and lights, and smart thermostats, all controlled from a central ADP app or the sound of your voice. By the way, you can bring the ADT Go app with you. Features location sharing, safe driving reports and emergency SOS button. Real Protection is a team of professionals who help safeguard your home with rapid connection to first responders 247 that's how ADT, the nation's number one smart home security provider, keeps your family safe wherever you go. That is real protection. That is ADT. And to learn more you can visit ADT.com.

[Jason Moore]

And we also want to thank Rippling. Every minute you spend updating your company's employee data and systems is a minute that you don't spend on doing your core job. And thankfully, now there is Rippling. It's the first platform that combines all your HR and IT systems together. And when you combine them together, magic happens. Imagine if you could hire someone and take care of all their HR needs, including payroll, health insurance, 401k in as little as 90 seconds. But the same goes for your IT. You can get their computer ordered, create all their accounts and all the apps that you use, like Gmail, GitHub, Slack in one unified onboarding flow. That's how easy rippling makes running your business. It's also why they won the PCMag's Editor's Choice Award. It's the top rated HR and IT software on the G2 crowd. Stop burning valuable time on admin work. Use rippling. And for your HR and it, make it a well oiled machine. If you're looking for an easier way to supercharge your employees, go to rippling.com footballers and get 20% off. That's rippling.com footballers for 20% off. Quarterbacks, check this out.

[Andy Holloway]

Jay. Apparently we were doing shows in February. Wait, yeah, you were there now when.

[Jason Moore]

Was in this stretch of this. This stretch that we've been doing shows? When was that? First show since.

[Mike Wright]

First show ever since our last break.

[Andy Holloway]

We don't ever stop.

[Jason Moore]

Oh man, you mean we years and Years and years straight of doing this.

[Andy Holloway]

Why do you think I look the way I look, Jay? I'm just a little disheveled, just torn down. We did a shocking stats episode in February with some stats about quarterbacks. And before we talk about them today, I want to lay the groundwork for a few of the reasons why we believe in drafting them later in your drafts. So in 2017, we only saw 17 total quarterback performances of 30 plus fantasy points in four point leagues from weeks one through 16. In 2018, we equaled that total in just four weeks. That is an amazing 33 weeks of 30 plus fantasy points, double the previous year. What is that saying? It's saying there are a lot of quarterbacks putting up big numbers in fantasy football. Kyle the Borgogan himself, our editor, pulled up an incredible chart. I want to illustrate what happened last year at the quarterback position. This is, this is awesome. This should illuminate for those of you in one quarterback leagues. Last year there was only one quarterback in the top 12 ADP that ended up finishing above his average draft position in finish and that was Andrew Luck. He was drafted as the QB8 last year, finished as the QB4 on average. The rest of the guys in that top 12, they ended up finishing seven spots lower on average than where you drafted them.

[Mike Wright]

I would say just going through the chart real quick, basically you were happy or you were okay if you took to Sean Watson, Drew Brees, sort of, because we've, we've always talked about, you know, Drew Brees.

[Andy Holloway]

Watson was taken as the number two quarterback, ended the year at number five.

[Mike Wright]

Right. Drew Brees was six and finished at eight. Andrew Luck of course had the positive return and that's, that's just, that's the.

[Jason Moore]

End of the list.

[Mike Wright]

Right?

[Jason Moore]

I mean that's it. Because if you drafted Aaron Rodgers as the clear quarterback one, you're very disappointed you spent that capital. When he finishes as the quarterback seven, you have, you know, he's not even a top six guy. And you take Brady and Russell Wilson and a lot of these guys early, they didn't pan out. But you want to know who did a lot of the late round quarterbacks, the Pat Mahomes, you know, who now clearly has to be the number one quarterback you draft. Right. Wrong.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah, I know. I still say it's right, I'm taking my homes number one.

[Andy Holloway]

But yeah, I mean last year the thing is, is you're not drafting a guy that high in ADP and hoping that they end up, if they end up at 10 or 11, you've lost. You've lost in a big way because there's 12 that start on a weekly basis.

[Mike Wright]

Last year in particular was very, very kind to the late round strategy. It, it always is. But last year in particular was, was a banner year for the strategy.

[Andy Holloway]

Also jump from 2017 to 2018. In 2017 there were six quarterbacks that completed 65% or more of their passes. Do you know how many there were last year?

[Mike Wright]

I do, because I'm looking at it 2020.

[Andy Holloway]

And that's with eight games played as the qualifier. So you're just seeing an increase in total production at the position. Doesn't mean that you can't, you know, you're not smart with your quarterback position. Just means that if you invest the high draft capital pick on a quarterback, they have to deliver on average last year they're not delivering to where you drafted them. You know, Patrick Mahomes, we said if you could book it, if you could say 50 touchdowns, I got it. It's in the bag. I'm probably taking Patrick Mahomes in the second round. That's what I would probably do that.

[Jason Moore]

If you knew you were getting what you got last year. He deserves to be not only the first quarterback taken off the board, but at his ADP or even better, completely agree. It's probably not going to happen based on, you know, the history of the NFL. And then for those of you that play in two quarterback leagues, we'll talk about this as we go along but I think it's important because a lot of people out there play Super Flex and they always want to know, okay, you say late round quarterback, but does that apply in Super Flex? Because things change. You don't have 12 quarterbacks, you have supply demand, starting quarterbacks. But the strategy does not change when it comes to tier based drafting. If for me, so I'll share my strategy. I like to get three quarterbacks in a two quarterback league that are later guys. You know, if I could end up with a Jameis Winston, a Dak Prescott, and then, you know, the third being like an Andy Dalton or someone super late, I am going to have good starters week in and week out based on matchups or you know, being able to play the right two out of those three. But if you think about where those guys get drafted versus where all the other quarterbacks are getting drafted super early in your drafts, you're going to get a lot of other good running backs and wide receivers while you bypass.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, number one on our consensus quarterback rankings, Patrick Mahomes. His Current average draft position is the middle of the third round. Last year we know what happened. He was kind of good. He was the MVP of football. So not much to say. Pat Thorman tweeted the weapons at Patrick Mahomes disposal and they're in their 40 times.

[Mike Wright]

They're very fast.

[Andy Holloway]

Nicole Hardman had a 43340 yard dash. You saw him score on an end around a Tyreek like play.

[Mike Wright]

He looked so fast.

[Jason Moore]

And the thing.

[Mike Wright]

Holy crap.

[Jason Moore]

The thing about the end around. Since we are talking Patrick Mahomes, it was one of those takeaways where I wondered. We don't have enough NFL data historically on the tap pass that has become popularized over the last few years where the handoff becomes a passing attempt, which is stupid, but it is clearly not going away. That that play, that in the round handoff was actually a tap pass.

[Andy Holloway]

That was a passing touchdown.

[Jason Moore]

A passing touchdown for Patrick Mahomes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we saw Tyreek do it. He has a 4, 3, 4, 40. Sammy Watkins a 443, Damian Williams a 4 4, 5. That those guys are fast.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. And they can all catch and this.

[Andy Holloway]

Offense is going to be great. So does he throw for 50? Probably not. Three players have done it ever. Yes, but at the same time, you guys saw the jump from 2017 to 2018 in production at the quarterback position. The league is changing scoring, things like that.

[Jason Moore]

So could he throw for 40 and tap for 10? Ooh, get back up to that 50 number?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, not. Not likely. He actually slowed his pace over the second half. Wasn't as strong as his first tab, but he was still an absolute dominator. So look, what is there to say? Patrick Mahomes. Yeah, he's number one on the list.

[Mike Wright]

He is the number one Quarterback regression is coming. But I. Even though historically speaking the probability of getting even over the 40 plus touchdown mark is low of any of the guys in the field. You would bet on Patrick Mahomes.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you have his touchdown total that you projected him for in your head?

[Mike Wright]

I can pull that up. Let me. It's got to switch to the actual.

[Andy Holloway]

Team because I'm wondering, you know you said is coming.

[Mike Wright]

I have him at 38.

[Andy Holloway]

38 touchdown.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason, do you have yours?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I have Patrick Mahomes right now throwing for 42.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I got him a 41. So yeah, it's going to be fine. He's going to be. Unless he gets hurt. That offense is going to be dynamic. They're big play. You know, you might play in a league with bonuses for long touchdowns. I don't know if you're going to see more of those than in the Kansas City.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, Someone sent me a question and it was do you, how high do you take Mahomes in this system? It's a one quarterback but the bonus points structure was just insanity where if you games over 300 yards you get this huge bonus games where a 40 plus yard touchdown pass you get this huge bonus. And it was like, man, I guess I move him up but I'm, but even, even then I'm still not going to reach for him in the third round.

[Andy Holloway]

Aaron Rodgers, number two on our consensus rankings. Jason has him at three. Mike and I have him at two. You know, it's been a little while since we had the 2009 to 2012 Aaron Rodgers where he was the first, second, first, second quarterback. 2014 he was number one. 2016, he was number one last two years. Banged up in 2017 and then last year finished at six and hurt that they threw. Yeah, he was hurt and played through it. I mean they threw the ball a ton last year but the efficiency for Aaron Rodgers wasn't there. You still had some monster games here and there, but it wasn't really vintage Aaron Rodgers. So an investment in Rodgers is an investment in him returning to what he's been.

[Mike Wright]

It's an investment in that. It's also an investment in him throwing in the red zone. This is, this has been my main takeaway from Aaron Rodgers season last year where you look back the past four years, he averages a pace of at least 100 attempts inside the red zone. And last year that dropped to 64 and he was still the quarterback six on the season. The offense was in disarray. Aside from Devonte Adams, Geronimo Allison started, he was the number two guy. And through those first four games, I mean Allison was averaging five for 72 in those games. It was, it was solid. He could count on a wide receiver too. But then Allison went down and it was rookies who they looked overmatched. But now with another, with another off season and with the same core, I think Rogers is in a much safer place to return to dominance.

[Jason Moore]

If he, if he were to return to dominance, then where you're drafting him right now in the sixth round, which is way later than what you had been drafting, I think is a good value. It's always been in the past. What round do you draft Aaron Rodgers? I remember year after year it's like, well if he gets the fifth or sixth maybe. So obviously right now his, his average draft Position's in the sixth. I find myself not believing he's going to return to dominance. I am actually quite afraid of Aaron Rodgers. Look, he's got the best I think receiving core he's had since he lost Jordy because the year two Marquez and equanimity of St. Brown, Geronimo in the slot is probably at this point as reliable as Randall Cobb was and he's got devonte Adams. But you know it's, it's one of those things where he's 35 years old and I think Tom Brady is ruining, you know Brady and Brees are really saying like look, you can play till you're 40 no problem but Aaron Rodgers has always been one of those kind of mobile guys. Get out of the pocket, extend a play, bomb it deep. And I'm not saying like I'm not calling for the end of Rodgers here but I am saying I am lacking confidence that he's going to go back and be that guy who with Jordy was averaging 40 touchdowns in and out of a season since 2014. Since 2014. So this is what the last five years, his 16 game pace. I know he's missed a lot of games in that so I'm saying 16 game pace. His full season pace is only 34 passing touchdowns a season which is good. That's very good number.

[Mike Wright]

That's still very good.

[Jason Moore]

But that's not Aaron Rodgers dominance when he finishes as the number one quarterback. That's what I'm saying like so I'm going to probably back to that.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean outside of devonte Adams I would probably argue that sure we're anticipating players to step up but I mean it's hard to say that you guarantee MVS is going to step up, you guarantee Allison is going to be consistent, you guarantee that Equanimous will be able to make a player. Jimmy Graham, it is, you know, old in the tooth is going to make a play for Rogers. They're going to throw the ball to the running back with I mean there is, there are variables and a brand new head coach that and it hasn't gone exactly to plan. Ringing in Matt LaFleur. There's constant criticism from Aaron Rodgers so I think that there are more question marks around that offense despite the fact we haven't ranked where we do. So just bringing those to mind.

[Jason Moore]

If you want to talk about a player who I don't lack confidence in, it's this next guy, my number two quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

DeSean Watson I think is, I mean you, I think he has the Best chance of supplanting Pat Mahomes as the number one quarterback because of his rushing ability combined with his just elite getting the job done, Touchdown throwing that he's had in his entire career.

[Mike Wright]

Getting the job, touchdown throwing.

[Andy Holloway]

Are you done talking?

[Jason Moore]

I am done talking.

[Andy Holloway]

That's the end of the sentence. Well, you might have more.

[Jason Moore]

I needed Mike to chime in on that.

[Andy Holloway]

Best receiver DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller. When he's been healthy and active with desean Watson, it's been something to behold. Last year, incredibly strong finish from weeks 12 on. Look. 551 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns. I do agree that Watson has the ability to be that number one guy. Love Duke Johnson's addition. Hopefully Kiki is fine. So, yeah, there's a lot to like about Deshaun Watson right now. You got to draft him in the fifth round.

[Mike Wright]

And last year, Watson, look, there is. There's actually not a lot of pass attempts. So the past two years, the Texans have been bottom 10 in total pass attempts with Watson, except they throw near the goal line. He had 42 attempts inside the 10. That's the fifth. That's fifth among quarterbacks. So, like, the scoring opportunities are frequently there. You can see that. You feel that when you have Lamar Miller on your team, you go, they're scoring a bunch of points. Why isn't Lamar Miller rushing in more touchdowns? It's because they go to Watson when they're inside the 10. Either he throws one or he rushes.

[Andy Holloway]

It in number four is Carson Wentz. Thank you.

[Mike Wright]

My goodness. We have four.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you.

[Jason Moore]

We do have him at four. I think it makes a lot of sense.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike has him at 11. His ADP is the QB7. We've got him at 4. So this is the first kind of step out of ADP in a big way. I've talked about Carson Wentz at length. He's my guy. Talked about the difference to Sean Jackson has made for fantasy quarterbacks throughout the his career minus Jameis. Talked about the difference a healthy Alshon has made to Carson Wentz's numbers. Carson throws an extra touchdown. A little more than that when a healthy Alshon Jeffries on the field. Dallas Goddard, Zach Ertz, JJ Whiteside around the goal line.

[Mike Wright]

His. His offensive weapons are our tops.

[Andy Holloway]

Plus they're going to win the Super Bowl. Mike.

[Jason Moore]

No, that. I did hear that.

[Andy Holloway]

I saw the future.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I remember you saw the future on that show.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, that's really all it comes down to. Right. We've seen Carson Wentz as an MVP Candidate we've seen him dominate in fantasy. Now he's removed from the ACL injury enough to where he doesn't even have the brace on. I think you're going to get back to a little bit more of the scrambling, the running, but you combine that with easily his best weapons he's had in his short career. All the weapons Andy just named. I mean, I don't see how you're going to easily stop this offense even at running back. I mean, Miles Sanders projects to be a better pass catching back than what they've been dealing with with the Corey Clement and Josh Adams regime. So.

[Andy Holloway]

So we're in, Jay, but Mike isn't in. So why doesn't, you know.

[Mike Wright]

Well, it's not that I'm not in. I mean, I just prefer.

[Andy Holloway]

You're certainly not as in correct at.

[Mike Wright]

11, I have them in my top 12. I'm just. My expectations are far more tempered for Carson Wentz when I look back at what the things he's actually been able to do on the field in terms of production. I just, I don't see the monster season coming for Carson.

[Andy Holloway]

For me, he's my favorite late round pick that could end up in that upper echelon. That's kind of why he's endorsed. He's got the Andy Holloway, my guy endorsement. Andrew Luck at number five, Matt Ryan at number six. Luck right now. Step one, he's in a red jersey hanging around practice. So he's not playing yet. But it, you know, he seems to think he'll be ready to go.

[Jason Moore]

Andrew Luck was my quarterback three before some of the calf scares just pushed him down. For people that are drafting right now want them to be aware, have that risk baked into his ranking. If we knew that he was healthy completely. You said that the Eagles are winning the Super Bowl. I had early said that the Colts were my dark horse to win the Super Bowl. That is entirely dependent upon Andrew Luck's health. They're not a great team without Andrew Luck and with Andrew Luck, they are one of the best offenses in the game. I think I believe in Frank Reich. I think at the end of this year, if we've got a healthy Andrew Luck, Frank Reich will be discussed in the same conversations as you know, when we talk about McVay and Reed and these great offensive minds that manufacture touchdowns for people. You've seen that when he was with the Eagles. You know, we just talked about, you know, two years ago when it was Carson Wentz was the number five quarterback in football. That was with Frank Reich.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. And he was the number one through the time he got hurt.

[Jason Moore]

Right. So it's one of those situations where it's hard to discuss Andrew Luck here without talking health emphatically because number four.

[Andy Holloway]

In 2013, number two in 2014, number four in 2016, number five in 2018. If he's healthy, he's great. That's it.

[Mike Wright]

What's wild is that that number finish for Andrew Luck, it just speaks to what the other quarterbacks are doing in the league because this was actually his best year and he was coming off of a completely missed season. 39 touchdowns, 39 touchdowns, almost 4,600 yards, and his completion percentage on 639 attempts was over 67%. Like Andrew Luck was awesome.

[Andy Holloway]

32 of the 39 touchdowns were red zone touchdown throws.

[Mike Wright]

He's just, he is a great quarterback. And the fact that he can come off of the completely missed season in his first, first goal round with Frank Reich. I have supreme confidence in Andrew Luck if he's on the field.

[Andy Holloway]

Matt Ryan comes in at number six on our consensus rankings. There is not consensus, however, in the studio about Matt Ryan. Mike and I both have him at four overall. Jason does not.

[Jason Moore]

I have him at four.

[Andy Holloway]

Team.

[Jason Moore]

Team.

[Mike Wright]

It's so egregious.

[Andy Holloway]

It really is maybe the most egregious thing.

[Jason Moore]

It's not egregious. Here's the thing. My.

[Mike Wright]

No, it's not egregious. It's egregious.

[Jason Moore]

My. Look, a lot of people out there, I mean, he finishes the quarterback two last year, so he has to be, you know, top five this year. Right? For sure. Because that's how, you know, we think is whatever happened last year will happen this year. Except that isn't usually what happens. No one has made that more clear than Matt Ryan. If you look at his fantasy finishes over the last seven, eight years where he's gone from the number two to the year before he was the 15th quarterback, he was the two the year before that he was the 19th, before that, the seven, the 15th. And I don't say that to do the whole ping pong. Good year, bad year, Good year, bad year. This is a bad year. What I do is that three of the last six years he has finished at the quarterback 15 or lower. So ranking him as the quarterback 14 is not egregious. It's all about touchdowns. That's it. I've got Matt Ryan for 4,600 plus passing yards. He's on a great offense, is just touchdowns. Does he throw, you know, over the last four years his average 16 game pace is 28 touchdowns. If he throws 28 touchdowns he's going to be where I've got him ranked. You know, I've got him right now for 29 touchdowns and of course no rushing touchdowns. He had three rushing touchdowns last year which was fair. He hasn't scored a rushing touchdown in the five previous seasons. So it's all touchdowns. If he goes out and throws 36 touchdowns, I'm a buffoon. And he's going to be the number four quarterback out there because I think we all agree the yards will be there with the foul.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

This is just how many touchdowns does he throw?

[Andy Holloway]

Much stronger beginning to last year than end the first nine weeks he was, you know, fighting with. You know we've brought up those terms before about there was a window of about seven, eight weeks where he was the same as Patrick Mahomes last year. But the first half versus second half much stronger first half for Matt Ryan last year. I love the weapons. I love Julio Calvin Ridley, Year two Sunu Hooper. It's all before Matt Ryan to do what he needs to do to stay in that upper echelon of quarterbacks.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah and I what we don't disagree on Jason is everything with Matt Ryan is touchdowns. Over the last seven years he has the second most passing yards, slash passing yards per game behind only Drew Brees. He has the second highest completion percentage behind only Drew Brees. Matt Ryan is great. I don't think Matt Ryan gets the national recognition that he deserves. He is a great, great quarterback and I yards and if you are he attempts, I should say completions and yards, it just, it turns into touchdowns statistically speaking. And Matt Ryan has had some weird ones. He, Julio Jones has also had some weird ones and I think that the addition of Calvin Ridley coming off of 10 touchdowns his rookie season, I think that that is a huge deal and I think that that increases the odds that Matt Ryan will be up over that 30 touchdown mark.

[Andy Holloway]

He was the NFL MVP in 2016. So that's the, you know, the ceiling for Matt Ryan. He was the NFL MVP and that year they went to the Super Bowl. Jared Goff. Oh yes, Jared Goff comes in at number seven. He's seen his stock rise in the studio here over the last month or two. Can't really love woods and cooks and cup and not love Jared Goff. There has been some talk around camp. I don't know if you guys read this about multi tight end sets as a way to manage the reps for Cooper Cup. So Gerald Everett maybe more time on the field but inversely you may see a reduced snap count for Cooper cup as he comes off the ACL and they try to control his reps. Nevertheless, great offense, great weapons. They added one in Daryl Henderson this off season. A lot's been made of Jason's love for Robert Woods. Brandon Cooks Year two now with this team.

[Jason Moore]

So he doesn't even remember what that's like. Year two with a team.

[Andy Holloway]

It's been a while.

[Jason Moore]

Insane.

[Andy Holloway]

It's definitely been a while. So had had some real nasty games at the end of last year. It wasn't just the super bowl. It was week 13 when he had eight fantasy points. It was week 14 when he had negative fantasy points. Really didn't put up monster numbers at the quarterback position from week 12 on.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So it was a rough ending of the season. It was real rough and I will not refute that. If you want my full take on Jared Goff of why I believe him, he's my guy. He's my favorite late round, later round quarterback. You can check that out on the My Guy show. But here's just a quick highlight of why I like Jared Goff. Last year he was a top six quarterback over 31% of his games, which is that's the same as Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Big Ben, Deshaun Watson, guys that are you expect to put up big games yet the second most completions of 20 or more yards behind only Patrick Mahomes. The Rams offense is elite and they are going to stay there as elite. You have three wide receivers being drafted in the top 50. I would like the guy who's throwing them the ball because I believe in those wide receivers and I think that there's room for growth as well. Some positive regression coming inside the red zone. Both Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck and Jared Goff, they all had 100 attempts inside the red zone except both Mahomes and Andrew Luck had over 30 touchdowns on those attempts while Jared Goff was down at 23 and I believe that was a direct result of Cooper cup not being around for the second half of the season. I love Jared Goff.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, Baker Mayfield at 8. What do we think about Baker Mayfield? Because I know we all love him. Mike, you got him at 5, Jason and I have him at 9. He's going to have a very productive season. Without question. He doesn't run the ball like other quarterbacks do traditionally, so takes a little bit of the top end off for me. That's why he landed where he landed. I'm not out to Barry Baker because he's being drafted as the QB5. Jason and I have him at 9. It's just the way it ended up so, you know, I view him as being overdrafted. People want Baker Mayfield to be great. We all want it to be great.

[Mike Wright]

I believe he is great.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, for fantasy though, yeah, there's a difference. You can be great as an NFL quarterback. You do not have to be a top five fantasy guy.

[Mike Wright]

Here's, here's the issue with Baker. When we, that chart we brought up last year of investing this high in a quarterback, they. You're shrinking the range of outcomes that, that will be positive for your team. When you spend that pick on Baker. He's my fifth quarterback. He's going ADP as the fifth quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

Is that what you're saying? Yes, he is.

[Mike Wright]

I still won't take him there though. In a single quarterback league. Just based off of we're playing fantasy. It's a game of probability. However, last year, once he was the starter, he was averaging 271 yards and two full touchdowns per game. That's 4,300 yards and 33 touchdowns. And they added in a generational and elite wide receiver in Odell Beckham, who when Beckham was on the field for Eli, Eli's passer completion percentage went up three full points. I mean, Beckham is a huge deal to a quarterback.

[Andy Holloway]

You have to project that. You have to project Beckham making the difference because last year only 14% of his games were in that 25 plus category. I think it was two times. And he had a number of bust games. He busted 50% of the time where he was under 15 fantasy points. So you're projecting the impact of Beckham, Freddie Kitchen's offense for the whole season.

[Mike Wright]

Off season of year two, off season, as the starter.

[Andy Holloway]

But lose, you know, losing Duke Johnson, I don't know how much that really matters, but it matters a little bit because he caught 60, 70 balls. So I just think we just have a different range of outcomes. For Baker.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, early, early in the off season when he was like still a 9th round pick, he was one of my favorite guys because you take, you're taking the shot that he can go.

[Andy Holloway]

This year's Patrick Mahomes. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And you know, once he's up where he's at now, it's like, well, some of that has to happen just to get the value of the draft pick. So I'm kind of out on Baker for the value. I still see an Outcome where he finishes as the number one fantasy quarterback and just explodes. But I think more realistically, he is a good fantasy quarterback. A top 10 fantasy quarterback who's being drafted at a level where you really have to have him be elite this year just to make the pick a quality pick. That's it.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, number nine, Cam Newton being drafted as the QB 10 right now. One of Jason's my guys being drafted at the end of the eighth round last year struggled with serious shoulder injury. His best friend was Christian McCaffrey through that rough stretch and then they basically sat him down. I mean the numbers just went down, down, down from week 13 on 15, 10, 4. And then didn't play the last two games of the season probably. I mean he's in golf, Wentz Newton, they're in that category of incredible values at the end of fantasy draft.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean if you take a look at. So we're just talking about Baker. Right. Last year they basically played the same amount of games. Two at the end of the game, at the end of the year lost for Cam. Two at the beginning of the year lost for Baker. Although Cam was playing hurt for a lot of the end of that season. You look at those top 10 performances, those actual weak winning for fantasy quarterback performances, Baker with four, Cam with eight in the top 10. And that was even though he played hurt a lot of that. Similar to you, Mike. I've made my argument on the My Guy show. If he plays a 16 game season, he's better than the quarterback. Three on average. He gives you monster, monster weak winning performances. And with DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel coming into year two, Greg Olson back and the ultimate valve safety valve in Christian McCaffrey. I just really like his, you know.

[Andy Holloway]

This is one year, three for Samuel, year two for DJ Moore.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. If it was, if it was Cam Newton, where he usually is going, then I would be off. But since he's in the ninth round.

[Andy Holloway]

But you like him more than Lamar. You like him more than Kyler Murray. You guys both have him ranked higher than those guys.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you imagine. I mean I imagine both. Who do you have rushing for more total yardage? Cam Newton or Kyla Murray?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, between. I thought you were going to go Lamar. The answer is Lamar Jackson.

[Andy Holloway]

That's why I didn't go Lamar. I know that we all agree Lamar will run like crazy.

[Jason Moore]

I have Cam Newton down for 555 rushing yards. Kyler Murray 575.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, come on. Jerk.

[Jason Moore]

575. So I have Murray down for Slightly more yards. But I do think the passing game.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, we'll see. Yeah, we'll see what happens. I, I, you can see 100% of our 2019 stat projections on a player by player basis in the Ultimate Draft Kit. You can plug in your custom scoring in the Ultimate Draft Kit to see how the projections change based on your league format. Right now, Brooks, these are our consensus by six point passing touchdown, right? Yes, sir. And that's there's a pretty big difference in the rankings when you look at leagues that are four point versus six point per passing touchdown at the quarterback position. For example, Josh Allen is my 7 overall quarterback in standard scoring. Josh Allen is my 17 overall quarterback in 6 point scoring. When you drop down to 4 point, the rushing yardage takes over. It's. Yeah, it's more valuable.

[Mike Wright]

And on top of that, rushing touchdowns, I mean, that's an extra two point.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. Because you're getting six for the rushing touchdown versus four for the passing, which.

[Mike Wright]

Of course, that makes sense. Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, number 10, Drew Brees. We'll round it out with Drew. Number 10 on my rankings. Jason at 10, Mike at 8. You know, there's always the possibility that Drew Brees, it's in there. Throws for more touchdowns than we expect.

[Mike Wright]

It's in there.

[Andy Holloway]

Has he been a top 10 finisher in fantasy for all of the, all of the years that the consistency chart allows for? From 2009 through 2018, he's been a top 10 guy, including, you know, the early days, it was, you know, 2, 1, 2. But over the last five years, 6, 6, 3, 9, 8, I don't see him, you know, for a guy that doesn't rush the ball at all. Yes, he has his little sneaky touchdowns, though. He does get those.

[Mike Wright]

Very sneaky.

[Andy Holloway]

But it's hard to see Breeze being, I feel like he's just a little bit better like Philip Rivers right now in terms of fantasy. Consistent can give you a huge game. Can also give you a game like week 15, five points, week 13, seven points, week eight, six points. Because the rushing, the rushing numbers for Camara and company, they can take over that game and the defense is really good. So I think that's the kind of picture for Brees.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, the reality is you look at 2017 and 2018 and you see a very similar Drew Brees both years. The difference being last season he had more games where the touchdowns happened to come through the air and they were his and they weren't rushed in versus, you know, 2017. He only had four weeks where he was a quarterback one which is like brutally bad yet he still finished the season as a quarterback one just because he's never going to finish as like the quarterback 25 on a week that just Drew Brees is too good for that. He has enough yardage, enough offense behind him to where he's going to the.

[Mike Wright]

Yardage has been dropping.

[Jason Moore]

So it's one of those things where I'm never excited about Drew Brees. I can't imagine being in on him. He's got such a great name that in you know, usual leagues you think hall of Fame unbelievable fantasy superstar Drew Brees. I want him on my roster so he gets drafted a little bit higher than I'm ever going to be willing to draft a guy who doesn't rush the ball, doesn't get those free fantasy points for quarterbacks. So you've got to have him throwing a lot of yards, a lot of touchdowns and there's just more exciting upside. Guys I just when I look at quarterback all I care about is who has the chance for monstrous, weak winning performances. And even though Drew Brees look he had, he had four top three performances last season which is really good, I hesitate on Brees his two lowest passing.

[Mike Wright]

Yardage output seasons of his career in New Orleans the past two years.

[Andy Holloway]

Granted things have changed there.

[Mike Wright]

He granted he would. He only played 15 games last year but that was his first sub 4000 yard season since he played football in San Diego.

[Andy Holloway]

Jared. Jared Cook could help things for Drew Brees. Trey Colton Smith Year 2 Healthy Ted Gann There are some, you know, I'm sure he will have a handful of games like he did last year. There were six games where he's 25 plus fantasy points. Those were games where you're like oh my gosh, Drew Brees is Drew Brees. So the ping pong can happen to greater extremes with Drew Brees. Couple quick questions as we close things out. Biggest bus potential of the top 10 guys we mentioned who has the biggest chance to fully. Let's say you're in a super flex. Let's say you have taken a shot on a quarterback. Maybe you got a steal on one of them. Couple rounds below ADP. Who's got the biggest bus potential of.

[Jason Moore]

That top 10 of our top 10 rankings?

[Mike Wright]

We already know Jason.

[Jason Moore]

Well yeah, I mean you're going to say Matt Ryan in the sense.

[Mike Wright]

I'm going to say that you're going to say Matt Ryan.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, sure. I, you know would he be a bust I guess where he's being drafted right now. I don't, I don't know. Andrew Luck is the guy that comes to mind with the injury, but I guess I'll go with Matt Ryan for ranking sake.

[Andy Holloway]

I think it's probably, probably Baker because he's being drafted at QB5, but I'll throw Carson Wentz out there. There's a possibility that Wentz bust on the basis of maybe he really can't run for 350 yards anymore. So I'll throw him out there.

[Mike Wright]

And it's, it's not that I don't like him, but it is Wentz because he's not even inside my top 10 right now.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. Are there any of these top 10 guys most likely to be on your team? Is it Jared Goff? Jared Cam Newton?

[Jason Moore]

Carson Wentz, Booty scooting Cam Newton?

[Andy Holloway]

All right, I think that is it. Unless you guys want to. You got anything else to add?

[Mike Wright]

I don't. I've given everything I had.

[Andy Holloway]

You've given everything on this fine Tuesday slash Monday. Brooks, do you have anything to add? Nah.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, he came back from under the door.

[Andy Holloway]

He slithered back in. We want to thank our studio sponsor, Pristine Auction. 11 Bell signed New York jets jersey yesterday. $72. @pristineauction.com use the registration code Ballers and you can save five bucks on your first sports memorabilia purchase.

[Mike Wright]

And if you didn't see the sleeper bowl commentating on the juju celebrity draft YouTube.com the fantasy footballers. Don't miss it.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.