Top 10 Shocking Stats from 2018 + Trade Targets

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary

Episode: Top 10 Shocking Stats from 2018 + Trade Targets
Release Date: February 7, 2019
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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Introduction

The hosts kick off the episode with their usual camaraderie, exchanging playful banter about hats and setting an energetic tone for the show. They briefly mention the Ultimate Draft Kit for 2019, highlighting its new features and promotional offers.

Notable Quote:

• Andy Holloway [00:00]: "You can pre order the 2019 Ultimate Draft Kit right now at ultimatedraftkit.com."

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Top 10 Shocking Stats from 2018

The core of the episode revolves around analyzing ten surprising statistics from the 2018 NFL season and discussing their implications for fantasy football players in the upcoming 2019 season. The stats were sourced from the show's editor in chief, Borgogan Kyle, ensuring well-researched insights.

1. QB Boom Boomers

   • Stat: In 2017, there were only six quarterbacks who completed 65%+ of their passes, whereas in 2018, this number surged to 20.
   • Discussion: The hosts debate whether this trend signifies a new normal or an anomaly influenced by exceptional players like Patrick Mahomes.
   • Notable Quote:
     • Jason Moore [16:50]: "I think this was a swing a little bit too far. But you're right. Andy Patrick Mahomes himself is... Mahomes is going to skew this number just by himself."

2. Running Back Dominance in Select Teams

   • Stat: The Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Chargers each had two running backs finish in the top 24. Conversely, six teams, including the Jets and Ravens, had no running backs in the top 30.
   • Discussion: Exploration of which teams might target running backs in the offseason and the impact of injuries on these stats.
   • Notable Quote:
     • Mike Wright [19:42]: "Of the teams that didn't have a back in the top 30, who are you most interested in?"

3. Surge in 100-Yard Receiving Games

   • Stat: There were 114 single-week wide receiver performances of 100+ yards in 2017, increasing to 172 in 2018.
   • Discussion: Analysis of whether certain wide receivers can maintain or surpass their performance levels.
   • Notable Quote:
     • Jason Moore [21:51]: "I do agree with that."

4. Rebounding Tight Ends

   • Stat: Three tight ends registered top 15 all-time seasons in PPR scoring: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle.
   • Discussion: Potential for these tight ends to improve and whether upcoming tight ends can reach elite levels.
   • Notable Quote:
     • Mike Wright [27:35]: "He is almost like, he's like a hybrid of Kelsey and Ertz."

5. Kansas City Chiefs' Receiving Touchdowns by Running Backs

   • Stat: The Chiefs' running backs combined for 12 receiving touchdowns, equaling what 11 other NFL teams achieved.
   • Discussion: Implications for Damien Williams’ ceiling and the Chiefs' offensive strategy under Patrick Mahomes.
   • Notable Quote:
     • Jason Moore [32:25]: "But it's also 10 fewer touchdowns than he threw this season."

6. Increased Quarterback Completion Rates

   • Stat: In 2017, six quarterbacks completed 65%+ of their passes. In 2018, this number rose to 20.
   • Discussion: Impact on fantasy quarterback valuations and the evolving quarterback playstyles.
   • Notable Quote:
     • Jason Moore [36:12]: "So this is not just a guy coming in for one game, playing half in relief."

7. Value of Pass-Catching Running Backs

   • Stat: In 2018, running backs averaged 0.627 fantasy points per rushing attempt and 1.17 points per target in half-point leagues.
   • Discussion: Emphasis on the importance of running backs who excel in the passing game and adjusting draft strategies accordingly.
   • Notable Quote:
     • Andy Holloway [40:37]: "We don't need to wait as long to buy into a pass-catching running back only weapon."

8. Wide Receiver Ones from Late Rounds

   • Stat: Twelve wide receivers drafted outside the top 40 had stretches of at least four games as the primary wide receiver.
   • Discussion: Identification of undervalued wide receivers who can become primary targets and their potential future performance.
   • Notable Quote:
     • Jason Moore [43:10]: "Dante Pettis... he is Garoppolo's wide receiver one."

9. Streaming Defenses

   • Stat: Over the last decade, only one number-one fantasy defense repeated in the top five the following year.
   • Discussion: Advocating for streaming defenses rather than investing heavily in a single defensive unit due to high variability.
   • Notable Quote:
     • Mike Wright [47:13]: "You've got matchup problems. Streaming defenses is streaming."

10. Increase in Passing Touchdowns

    • Stat: Passing touchdowns increased from 738 in 2017 to 834 in 2018, with top quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes leading the surge.
    • Discussion: Evaluation of which quarterbacks might regress to more sustainable touchdown numbers and the overall trend in passing efficiency.
    • Notable Quote:
      • Andy Holloway [49:14]: "Pat Mahomes threw for 10 fewer, and still is great."

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Trade Targets

Following the shocking stats, the hosts shift focus to identifying potential trade targets for dynasty leagues. They emphasize targeting undervalued or emerging players who can provide significant returns.

• Jason Moore's Recommendations:

  • John Brown: A free agent with a promising past performance, likely to be acquired by teams needing a reliable WR2.
  • Zay Jones: Emerging as a potential late-round flyer with increased targets.

• Andy Holloway's Recommendations:

  • Dante Pettis and Quincy Enunwa: Players who showed potential and could secure more prominent roles in their respective teams.

• Mike Wright's Recommendations:

  • Isaiah McKenzie and Albert Wilson: Players who can leverage improved offensive schemes or quarterback play to enhance their fantasy value.

Notable Quote:

• Jason Moore [11:47]: "John Brown will get paid. He will go somewhere to be the number two for that team at least. And he's going to cost you absolutely nothing."

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Final Thoughts

The hosts wrap up the episode by reiterating the importance of understanding and leveraging statistical insights for successful fantasy football management. They encourage listeners to stay informed, adapt their strategies based on evolving trends, and utilize resources like the Ultimate Draft Kit.

Notable Quote:

• Andy Holloway [38:00]: "This is illustrating the value of a past catching running back."

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Conclusion

The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2018 NFL season's unexpected trends and their direct implications for fantasy football enthusiasts. By dissecting these stats and offering strategic trade targets, the Fantasy Footballers equip their audience with the knowledge to excel in their leagues for the 2019 season.

Additional Resources:

• Pre-Order Ultimate Draft Kit: ultimatedraftkit.com
• Follow on Social Media:
  • Twitter: @theFFballers
  • Instagram: @fantasyfootballers
• Join the Community: jointhefoot.com

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Note: This summary excludes advertisements, intros, outros, and non-content sections to focus solely on the valuable insights and discussions pertinent to fantasy football strategies derived from the 2018 season's statistics.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, Foot Clan. The ultimate draft kit for 2019 is back and better than ever. You can pre order it right now at the lowest possible price. And this year we're bringing to you everything that you loved from the last Ultimate Draft kit, which means Premium position rankings, top 200 player profile videos, sleepers, breakouts, bust, and so much more. But we're also bringing you custom scoring, a custom ultimate Draft kit app, and much more. And if you order before March 1st, you can be entered to win two customized jerseys from fantasychamps.com a studio tour and a coveted listener league spot. Plus, we'll give you $10 to shotballers.com youm can pre order the 2019 Ultimate Draft Kit right now at ultimate draftkit.com this is Melvin Gordon from the Los Angeles Chargers and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers PODC to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome in another wonderful day.

[Mike Wright]

Mike in the neighborhood.

[Andy Holloway]

You got the hat on.

[Mike Wright]

You've noticed?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

You've noticed, huh?

[Andy Holloway]

Hat week is back.

[Mike Wright]

It's the thrilling conclusion.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason is here.

[Jason Moore]

No hats, no hair to cover.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Some people say need hats because I've got no hair.

[Andy Holloway]

You could do like a hat month.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Well, here's the thing our listeners may or may not know about Jason. The.

[Andy Holloway]

The hair.

[Mike Wright]

Yes. Everyone knows that systems are failing. Jason in a hat is truly a sight to behold. It's. I don't know how certain people just aren't hat people.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah, I get it.

[Andy Holloway]

But Jason, he's not a hat.

[Mike Wright]

And like, this is not meant to be an insult because it's just you put a hat on and it's just a fact.

[Jason Moore]

You look.

[Mike Wright]

You look like a strange person.

[Jason Moore]

And it doesn't matter the type, the type of hat. It's just all hats. Give me that crisp bill.

[Andy Holloway]

You know what he is?

[Mike Wright]

He's a snapback.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a fedora guy.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, no, I have not yet tried fedora.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, that's probably it. That's what you've been missing.

[Jason Moore]

Maybe a bowler.

[Andy Holloway]

We did top hat. You're a top hat kind of guy. We did a little analysis on our super bowl party because I don't remember who had the hat on, but we realized that Mike, his head is so large.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, it's mine.

[Andy Holloway]

That you on the. On the hats that aren't fitted. You're on like the last clip.

[Mike Wright]

Not the last. I got.

[Jason Moore]

You're close.

[Mike Wright]

I think I got four dots And I'm like four dots to my. That I can level up to the other side.

[Jason Moore]

I'm like, you gotta turn that thing into a baby hat.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. You gotta pull it as tight as possible so you have a small head. Maybe that has something to do with it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Very important stuff here on the Fantasy footballers podcast for Thursday, February 7th. And this. This show is going to be hot fire. It's going to be great. We have the top 10 shocking stats from last year. Not only are we revealing these on the show today, courtesy of a number of people bringing some really good research to the table, including the Borgogan. Kyle, our editor in chief, found these stats, and we're going to talk through the implications of these stats from this past year on your fantasy team and the way that fantasy football is trending and the way that gameplay on the field is trending and what it means for your fantasy drafts coming up in 2019. So a reminder, as always, follow us on twitterballers on Instagram, instagram.com fantasy footballers. You okay there, Jay?

[Jason Moore]

I am doing great.

[Andy Holloway]

Didn't want to duck away from the mic. No, that was right into the mic.

[Jason Moore]

Button. Not working.

[Mike Wright]

No. All right.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, did you think you had pushed the mute button?

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I have this.

[Mike Wright]

Try it out. Yeah, no, that. That's definitely working.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it worked that time.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. You win some, you lose some.

[Andy Holloway]

It did not look like you pushed it.

[Mike Wright]

You guys hear that?

[Jason Moore]

I apologize to the Foot Clan and to my family.

[Andy Holloway]

It's great. Because he didn't realize anything had happened. He's got headphones on. He could totally hear the cough.

[Jason Moore]

Like, oh, that didn't work. So of course I would hear it. But yeah, come to think of it, it was rather loud.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, don't forget, you can also find us on Apple podcast subscribe review over there and ad free on Stitcher Premium. We do have a giveaway going on on the website footclaim giveaway.com a signed Todd Gurley jersey you can enter for free, brought to you by Pristine Auction over [e-mail] and without further ado, let's get to the news.

[Jason Moore]

News and notes from around the league, presented by Sleeper.

[Andy Holloway]

We'll. We'll jump through the news and then see how much time we got left. I have a quick question idea for us too, but Nick Foles. Mike, you talked about this two days ago.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Andy Holloway]

He bought out his $20 million option for $2 million. Wouldn't you love to be in the position in life where you're like, I'm Going to pay you $2 million to not pay me $20 million because he's.

[Jason Moore]

Going to get paid a whole lot more than $20 million. He is now a free agent. He'll be. Now, the Eagles could still.

[Mike Wright]

This is where it's interesting.

[Jason Moore]

The Eagles could still franchise tag him. I don't believe they will. None of the indications that I've seen indicate that they will. So I expect Nick Foles to just be on the market and pretty much the best quarterback available in free agency.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you're probably going to have Ryan Tannehill out there in free agency. You're going to have Joe Flacco available.

[Mike Wright]

You have to trade for Flacco.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure, sure. But wouldn't that be a bargain to do? So depending on what you pay in terms of your yearly impact is going to be higher on a guy like Nick Foles and then Joe Flacco?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, but it depends on how much you like winning.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, I was gonna say, who would you rather have, Nick Foles or Joe Flacco?

[Mike Wright]

Nick Foles.

[Andy Holloway]

I would rather have Joe Flacco.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I would much rather have Nick Foles, but I would much rather have neither.

[Andy Holloway]

You'd go with no quarterback?

[Jason Moore]

I would go with any. I mean, I. I don't think either of them are the answers to a franchise at this point in their careers.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Rams coach Sean McVeigh said Todd Gurley does not require off season surgery.

[Mike Wright]

How is. I know this was getting a lot of play because this was, you know, a news blurb. Good news. Todd Gurley doesn't need off season surgery for the injury that they insisted he doesn't have. Like, how is talk. How are they when they're talking about him not having surgery? Well, how is that important when you've been insisting for a month that he's not hurt?

[Andy Holloway]

That is kind of interesting. Right? It's like answering the question that shouldn't exist.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly.

[Jason Moore]

They cannot. I mean, they.

[Mike Wright]

Quite a predicament.

[Jason Moore]

You know, I know a lot of people are saying, oh, it's going to come out that he was injured, he's dealing with stuff. And I. The whole time I'm thinking they literally can't. Even if he is. They can't because he wasn't on the injury report for several weeks. So if it comes out that he was injured, they'll be in trouble for that.

[Andy Holloway]

But based on this news, our new section is now going to be two, three hours long because I'm going to start like this. Saquon Barkley not having surgery. Oh, that's great news for any injuries he has or has not sustained.

[Jason Moore]

Andrew Lux throwing shoulder is not re injured either. There was a lot of worry maybe he would re injure that this season has not happened.

[Mike Wright]

That's good to hear.

[Andy Holloway]

Greg Olson, this was news today, confirms that he wants to play in 2019 because playing through foot injury is his jam.

[Mike Wright]

Also, I believe that Jason Whitten has sabotaged Greg Olson's chance to get into the booth immediately.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I mean Olson should be back. So he'll be relevant. If he's on the field, he always is. But if he's not on the field, less relevant. Falcons have released kicker Matt Bryant. 43 year old Matt Bryant dealt with injuries over the back half of the year. Moving another direction.

[Mike Wright]

This one's a little wild to me. I understand the injuries, but when he's on the field, Matt Bryant is still one of the best kickers in the league. And as we have seen plenty of times this season, if you don't invest in your kicker position at the NFL, we're not talking about fantasy. We're talking about having an actual good kicker on your team that bites you in the butt more often than not.

[Andy Holloway]

Fair enough. And then I don't know how much you want to talk about this, but you might as well mention it.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Antonio Brown's lawyer is refuting that his client was involved in a domestic dispute last month. This was a TMZ sports report that he was involved in a domestic dispute and not arrested. Okay. You don't. I mean, we know nothing.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. There's no information.

[Andy Holloway]

We're passing that on.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And then Ian Rampaport talking about the Raiders situation. Mike, do you want to sum up what's going on in Oakland? San Francisco, California.

[Mike Wright]

Oakland is looking for a place to play while they wait for the stadium in Vegas to be built. It was being reported that it was. The deal was done. They were going to go play in the Giants in the San Francisco Giants stadium. The San Francisco mayor is not having any of that business. You are not bringing your football franchise down into 49er territory.

[Andy Holloway]

So not even if they wear 49 or jerseys while they do it?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, they don't.

[Mike Wright]

That would be even worse.

[Jason Moore]

Don't you diminish our product.

[Mike Wright]

So we'll see. We'll see where Oakland gets to play. This is a mess.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

That was just take the year off. Just like pass 2019. We'll just pass.

[Andy Holloway]

That was today's news and notes here on the show. If you hate ads on your fantasy App. You know what Sleeper does too. You can download the best free Fantasy app on iOS and Android right now. Get Sleeper. Here was the quick question that I so unkindly ignored at the top of the show. Who's the player that you are targeting in trades in Dynasty leagues this off season and why is there a name out there right now that you, you want our listeners to pay attention to, somebody maybe below the radar that could have higher value later on this offseason?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I like targeting in this time of year. Really, really cheap free options that their situations could improve. To me, I really like John Brown. He's only 28 years old. He had a great season if you remember. It's hard to remember because the Lamar Jackson Ravens barely used wide receivers. You know, certainly not enough for anyone to be relevant for fantasy. But John Brown was great the beginning of the year. He was scoring, he was putting up big yardage, he was playing well, having great separation. He is now a free agent. So let me tell you some of the best free agents in this year's pool. Randall Cobb.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

And Dante Moncrief. And are we going to use Adam Humphries? He's free agent.

[Andy Holloway]

Tyrell Williams.

[Jason Moore]

Tyrell Williams, I mean, but my point is there's not like there's not like three or four big name tier one wide receivers where there's teams every year that need to spin and bring in another guy. John Brown will get paid. He will go somewhere to be the number two for that team at least. And he's going to cost you absolutely nothing. No, no, Dynasty owner right now is thinking like, oh, I got to hold on to John Brown.

[Andy Holloway]

That's probably true because I think there are, you know, there's the question marks of where he lands and what quarterback he has and whether I'll have a big role. Right. It worked. You know, this was the same situation for John Brown last year and it worked out where he found someplace that he could become one of the go to guys for Joe Flacco. I'm going to throw Robbie Anderson and Quincy and Nunois name out there. Both of them. Sam Darnold coming into year two. Adam Gaze, you know, Ryan Tannella had his best years under Adam Gaze. Obviously you had volume in the kind of probably the noonwa would be most similar to what Jarvis Landry did in the offense. And so I would just say keep your eyes on those two players. Anderson late in the season came on, had a streak of four plus games of being a number one wideout. So he may be More difficult to acquire. But Quincy and Nunois having been hurt halfway through the year, he's an interesting name. They resigned him to an extension. So Quincy and UNO would be a potential John Brown like snag.

[Jason Moore]

You expect that offense to be better next year with year two under Darnold?

[Mike Wright]

I like it, yeah. Generally if I'm looking to acquire a player, I want them to be in a little bit more of a solidified situation. So like Quincy, where I believe in Sam Darnold, I believe in him long term and I think I can get a cheap weapon. And the fact that Quincy just signed his new deal, has a young quarterback, I think that's a very interesting guy to go after. The name I'm going to throw out is also cheap, so might be a little bit gross when you hear the name. But stay with me. Zay Jones now having everything I just said about how I want to have a stable quarterback, you know that Josh Allen's at least there for a few years. We'll see if he can become the guy that Buffalo thinks that he can become. But Zay Jones, over the final five games of the season, he was averaging 8.4 targets a game. He scored five touchdowns in that time. I mean he was emerging as a, as the go to guy. I mean Robert Foster was having those big exciting plays. But Josh Allen is going to need someone who is reliable and Zay Jones young. They spent draft capital to get him. If you recall, Zay Jones was a second round pick. He had like that weird off season thing. So I believe moving forward, Zay Jones is going to be a very interesting player for Redraft. He's going to be a interesting late run flyer. And right, right now you can get him for probably pretty cheap.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, certainly. I mean people don't believe in Zay Jones because he had such historically bad, you know, catch percentage so far while he's been in the league. But if you remember his college production, his athletic profile, the draft capital spent, he's coming into year three. This I actually like Zay Jones as a target.

[Andy Holloway]

There's somebody that's going to catch the ball there. And I think Isaiah McKenzie's under contract for one more season at a cheap price. He's somebody that I saw hit waiver wires in dynasty leagues. So he could be a free AD versus a trade target as well. Yeah, those are some good names. Those are some good names. We ready to jump in shock some people? Yeah, let's do it.

[Mike Wright]

How'd you do that? I'm not even mad that's amazing.

[Andy Holloway]

That's pretty good. I didn't remember what that one was.

[Mike Wright]

There you have it.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, 10 shocking stats from 2018 and some questions for you gentlemen as it pertains to them. All right, number one, titled QB Boom Boomers. All right, all right. In 2017 we saw only. So this is two years ago, 17 total quarterback performances of 30 plus fantasy points. And this is in four point leagues from weeks one through 16 in 2018. Last year we got that total in four weeks and saw 33 weeks of 30 plus fantasy points, nearly double the year prior. And so we saw some boom boom games from the quarterback position. Is this the new normal? Is this what you expect with the, you know, the return of Andrew Luck and the ascendant MVP talents of Pat Mahomes? Or do you expect it to be somewhere more in between the 2017 and 2018 numbers?

[Mike Wright]

I would expect it to be in between, but if it's closer to any of them, it's the one we just got. 2017. This is why we were talking about last offseason of it was this weird year for not only for quarterback scoring, but for wide receiver scoring. I mean, there's a correlation. If wide receiver scoring is down, generally the quarterback scoring is going to be down as well. In this NFL where the rules are for the offense. It was so shocking to see what happened in 2017. I think this was a swing a little bit too far. But you're right. Andy Patrick Mahomes himself is. Mahomes is going to skew this number just by himself.

[Andy Holloway]

I actually, I think it'll stay. I think, I think we'll stay at this level. You have a transformative time in head coaching hires the attention to the Sean McVeigh success transition to some of these kind of, you know, manufactured offenses that have a lot of moving parts and are bending the offensive direction. So I think we're going to end up with 30, you know, 30 plus performance.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, we're getting more and more college systems coming into the NFL, which you go back, I mean, even 10 years ago, aside from Chip Kelly. But the thought of the NFL actually embracing what they're doing in college, they were. They had tilted their noses up.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

At the possibility of the college system working in the NFL.

[Jason Moore]

We don't do what those losers do. And the thing is, if you look over a long period of time, the trajectory for scoring in the NFL continues to rise. But it's a jagged, you know, it's not just a straight angle because defenses catch up. And I so, you know, I'm less optimistic that it'll just repeat what happened this year because I don't think Pat Mahomes throws another 50 touchdowns next year. I think some of these things come back to earth. But two years ago was more the outlier than last year. I do agree with that.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, the number two, surprising, shocking stat.

[Mike Wright]

His name's funny.

[Andy Holloway]

Arby's matter.

[Mike Wright]

No, no.

[Andy Holloway]

The Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles chargers both had two running backs finish in the top 24. Right. Meanwhile, six teams didn't even have one running back finish in the top 30, including the jets, the Lions, the Raiders, the Bills, the Eagles and the Ravens. Of those teams that did not have a running back in the top 30 that I just named, who are you most interested in for 2019? So you had the Chargers, right? They had two. The Bears had two. But. But I think this is.

[Jason Moore]

If you look at the list of the teams that. It's easy. It's easy for you.

[Mike Wright]

Of the teams that didn't have a back in the top 30, who are you most interested in? Yeah, it's very easy.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Because it's Kerry on Johnson.

[Jason Moore]

You darn right.

[Mike Wright]

It's the Detroit Lions. But the other names on the list, I just wanted to get that out of the way that I feel like that's the easy answer. But meanwhile, the Eagles and the Ravens, they're both extremely interesting.

[Andy Holloway]

Those are the two that jump out to me as offenses that I'd want the running back piece for. Assuming it's established that's the problem side of a giant committee for both of them.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know.

[Mike Wright]

I don't know if we'll see an established one, a guy for either of those teams.

[Jason Moore]

Neither team seems to desire that. They want, you know, the secondary guys involved. They want a Darren Sprouls, they want a Buck Allen, they want a Kenneth Dixon behind a bruising backbeat. But if you look at all these teams, yes, none of them finished with the top 30, but every single one was due to injury. You know, you lost Ji, you lost Kerryon Johnson, you lost Lashawn McCoy at times. And so next year, which team am I interested in? It's probably going to be, I mean, obviously, carry on. I love them, but I'm going to throw the jets out there because they're going to make a splash of free agency. You believe? So I think they're one of the front runners for Lev Belt. So if left Belt goes there, I'll be interested.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, number three. This one's Titled Big wide Receiver Honchos going hundo. Wow, that's a what? I just left these titles in here.

[Jason Moore]

I like it because it's exactly what they did. They gone hundo in 20.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's the stat. And you, Mike, you can decide after you hear the stat. All right. In 2017, two years ago, there were 114 single week wide receiver performances of 100 plus.

[Jason Moore]

We call those a hundred yards.

[Andy Holloway]

Those are a hundo. 114 hundos.

[Mike Wright]

That's going hundo. Jay?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

In 2018, last season there were 172.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, we're going.

[Andy Holloway]

That's three additional 100 yard wide receiver games per week. Where are you going hundo?

[Mike Wright]

I'm going hundo.

[Andy Holloway]

So you had in 2017 only three wide outs that had five or more games of 100 plus receiving yards. That was Keenan Allen, Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. Last year you had 11 wide receivers, not three, but 11 with five or more hundred yard games. Julio Thielen, Evans, Smith, Schuster, Hopkins, Hill, Adams, Beckham, Brown, Cooks and Ty Hilton.

[Jason Moore]

And it's hard, I think, to take, you know, the question is, okay, we had 11. Let's say it's not going to be 11. Let's say next year there's going to be seven guys who out of that list that you just read.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Would not repeat. Because when I look at the list of Julio Thielen, Mike, it's hard to know.

[Andy Holloway]

It's hard to count anybody out.

[Jason Moore]

It really, really is. I mean, you could argue juju, Smith, Schuster, if Antonio Brown is. But he has huge monster games. You know, the hundred mark is something that I think he'll do often.

[Andy Holloway]

If I had to pick like, you know, which we do. This is the question out of those 11 names, let's say we try to pick two names that will, that will not do it. And for me it would be just playing the odds. Brandon Cooks. And I'm going to throw Mike Evans because I think Mike Evans can have a huge impact on the field without 100 yard games. But yeah, those are the names I'd throw out there. I think you're, you know, I guess you guys could go Hilton, but I mean Hilton is just a magnet for 100 yard games.

[Mike Wright]

I would go Adam Thielen and Brandon Cooks.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Thielen, Hilton and Cooks are the three guys that I think would have the most difficult time repeating.

[Andy Holloway]

For what it's worth though, Thielen had nine of them, right? Yeah. So he's not in that.

[Jason Moore]

Well, when he started, Cooks only had five when he started the year. I mean every single, you know, every, every single game was 100 yard performance. He broke the NFL record for that. So obviously great year. You know, not taking anything away from him there.

[Mike Wright]

But yeah, it was eight, eight straights to start the season. So if you do the math, that means the second half of the season he only had one.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

So that's why I lean out of. With the system change.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a good, a good point. He Hilton had five and he missed some time and wasn't healthy. So that's. I think he's a. As long as Andrew Luck is there.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he's going to be in good shape. Absolute yardage master. Before we move on to the next shocking stack, want to thank stat. Did I say stat?

[Andy Holloway]

You said shocking stack and then you said thanked, which is not a word yet.

[Jason Moore]

Start over.

[Andy Holloway]

Start over.

[Mike Wright]

Before we move to next shocking station, I want to thank today's sponsor, Handy. Handy is the easy and convenient way to book home cleanings. You compare profiles, you read real customer reviews, then you book on your schedule right from the app or the website. All of Handy's services are backed by the Handy happiness guarantee and all pros on Handy are background checked. Learn [e-mail] plus with Handy's clear upfront pricing, what you see is what you pay. You can pay securely on the app. No need to worry about cash or checks.

[Andy Holloway]

I have had the.

[Mike Wright]

The Handy app experience. Incredibly easy. Had someone out to clean the. The house in it and two. Two shakes of the broomstick, as they say. That's my grandpapa used to say.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh yeah, I remember.

[Mike Wright]

I'm pretty sure. I think he did. Anyways, to get your first three hour cleaning for just 39 bucks. When you sign up for a plan, visit handy.com Footballers use the promo code footballers during checkout. That's handy.com Footballers use the Promo code footballers during checkout. You're going to get your first three hour cleaning for 39 bucks. Once you sign up for a plan, recurring charge terms and conditions apply. Visit handy.com to learn more.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, number four on the shocking stat list. TEs have tight ends.

[Jason Moore]

I don't like it.

[Andy Holloway]

We. Can I get a verdict?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, from the judge. Are we keeping that? It's out there now.

[Andy Holloway]

So, so you're. But is it acceptable? Is it.

[Jason Moore]

Can we repeal?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, you can scratch things from the record. Judge. You don't know that.

[Jason Moore]

Let's do it. All right.

[Andy Holloway]

He's in on it. He didn't even make a ruling.

[Mike Wright]

Because he wrote it.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you write this? Brooks? Kyle. Okay. We saw a major resurgence in top end tight end scoring, which could have been the name of the shocking stat in terms of PPR scoring for tight ends. There were three tight ends who registered top 15 all time seasons. So you had three all time seasons at the tight end position. Travis Kelsey, fourth best ever. Zach Ertz, sixth best ever. George Kittle was 14th best ever. We hadn't seen a tight end with a top 4:30 all time in the last two years. So can any of these guys. And we just had the tight end truth show on Tuesday.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Can Kelsey Ertz or Kittle, can any of those big three tight ends improve on this year's otherworldly numbers? Because, and I brought this up on the last show, this is not the same NFL. These. It can be a little bit of a distortion to throw the best all time out there for certain players in certain stats because I think literally last year Kelsey broke the receiving yards record and then Kittle broke it in the same weekend.

[Jason Moore]

Yep. Like an hour later.

[Andy Holloway]

That being said, can you improve on it? That's a, that's a different improve.

[Mike Wright]

A very, very. Be a tough ask for Travis Kelsey to improve, but yeah, considering he, he didn't play a week, I mean he took the final week off. So theoretically, yes, he can improve. If anyone is going to improve though, it would be Kittle because the yardage will be there. Maybe not 1300 yards, maybe not the.

[Jason Moore]

Most of all time.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, maybe not that, but five touchdowns. George Kittle can certainly improve on that area where he saw his cohorts. Kelsey was at 10, Ertz was at 8.

[Andy Holloway]

So he also had 88 receptions. He could be up at 100 in a PR league. That could go up.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he certainly could.

[Jason Moore]

And he's got an improving quarterback situation.

[Mike Wright]

So he's almost like, he's like a hybrid of Kelsey and Ertz.

[Andy Holloway]

And he's also likely the cheapest. He will be elite.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

So he has. You're saying he has higher upside and he's the cheapest. I'm saying he's the least established because Kelsey and Ertz have done it for multiple.

[Mike Wright]

He's saying his upside, like his ceiling can improve.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

I still would not say his upside is greater than Kelsey or.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, are there any other tight ends that could jump into that elite tier next year, that top three?

[Mike Wright]

That's.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, that's the question that wins championships, you know, if you can get the guy before the jump in, you know. Yeah, exactly. Kill this year. Ertz, two years ago, when you hopped on those guys, you won. And the first name that comes to mind for me is O.J. howard. You know, he was, he was dominating when he played. He missed a lot of the season. But he is a different. I mean, when you look at the tight ends usually take, take Ertz out. Ertz is just, he's just an incredible talent that, that you didn't really see coming. But you look at Kittle and, and Kelsey and they are physically like combine wonders. These are guys that are bigger, stronger and faster than all the other tight ends and that's why they dominate. That's what O.J. howard is. He is a physical freak. Even among all the freaks of the.

[Andy Holloway]

NFL, people need to realize the one thing that Ertz and Kelsey have in common was people sitting on their microphone for multiple years, trying to project them as being elite. I mean, it took Ertz two years, two full seasons of disappointing fantasy owners, four touchdowns, three touchdowns, under 500 yards, 700 yards, 58 receptions before he had these big time years. And it took Kelsey a while to remember. We were just waiting. Yeah, you know, Kelsey got hurt and then we're waiting for him to Zeus out. But so it could take some time, Howard. It could. You're right. Howard at least is in the category of could. But it could be another year. It could be two more years.

[Jason Moore]

He's six, six. Ran a four, five.

[Andy Holloway]

Ebron's not going to do it. Burton's not going to do it. In Joku, like you brought up, probably not going to do it. Hunter Henry, probably not going to do it. But at least you, at least out there. He's interesting, but no, I don't think there's somebody that just jumps out as. Yeah, it's going to happen next season for me.

[Mike Wright]

Agreed.

[Jason Moore]

I agree.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, number five. This one is titled Put the team on my back. Trick Mahomes. Another.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, good.

[Andy Holloway]

Another bad one. That's.

[Jason Moore]

That's two in a row.

[Andy Holloway]

Look, Kyle can find these stats.

[Mike Wright]

Back trick Mahomes.

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Jason Moore]

Trick Mahomes.

[Andy Holloway]

No, not good.

[Jason Moore]

Can we hit the drum? Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Kyle, he is not immune from the shame of the rim shot.

[Andy Holloway]

No, stats are hot. Titles are not. The Kansas City Chiefs running back group. This is what this means, apparently. The Kansas City Chiefs running back group. So this was Hunt for a while. And then the Williams brothers, they combined for 12 receiving touchdowns on the year. That is as many as 11 NFL teams had combined at that position. So if you took the Vikings, Texans, Broncos, Bucks, Seahawks, Titans, Packers, Lions, Bengals, Raiders and Bills, they're receiving touchdowns at the running back position. You put them all together, they're the same. They're the same. So if the backfield is the Damian Williams experience next season, how many total touchdowns do you see? What is the high end ceiling projection for Damian Williams? I was going to go the other way. I was going to say, what's his basement? If he's the guy you mean, what's his floor? His floor. Like, what's the worst that you're going to get out of him? If it's his backfield and that would be 10 total touchdowns to me, that's the worst case scenario. If it's his backfield combination of on the ground and through the air, you're going to get 10.

[Jason Moore]

There's, there's too many touchdowns going around in Kansas City to not have a true single, you know, guy who's running the backfield have 10. I agree with that. I now, I think his floor is much lower because I don't think he's going to be the guy. Certainly not by himself. But as far as ceiling, usually when you look at a running back and they're receiving touchdowns, a really good high number is like six. That's, that's, that's a lot. And so the fact that they had 12 receiving touchdowns total, this is part and parcel of my belief that Patrick Mahomes is not going to throw. You know, let's say next year, Patrick Mahomes throws 40 touchdowns. One. That's awesome. That is great. That's probably leading the league or close to it. You're first or second. But it's also 10 fewer touchdowns than he threw this season. And a lot of those, I think will come at the expense of the running back position, just by the nature of what usually happens around the goal line.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, I know you and the Patriots have a very interesting, you know, history right now with your bold prediction, but did you know this? Did you know that Damian Williams, before he re signed with Miami in 2017, he visited New England? And so Belichick was recruiting Damian Williams and he said, quote, I mean, and this just flies in the face of some things you've been saying about him. Quote, quote, he's a good football player, smart, versatile, can do a lot of things, can run the ball, can catch the ball, can pass protect. We had a good visit with him. He was a good guy to bring in and visit and get to know. He's not surprised is what I'm saying. Bill Belichick is not surprised.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, look, they gave him the offer.

[Mike Wright]

Best coach in history.

[Jason Moore]

They gave him that offer for a reason. You know, the Patriots said, I offer nothing to you because that's what they offer everybody. But look, he's an in division running back that was, you know, available. It's like, hey, why don't you stop in over here. We'll, we'll take a look. We'll. We'll see what you mean.

[Andy Holloway]

I just want, I just wanted to how deep your head was in the, in the Damian Williams sand. I wanted a little, little check. This is still in your ears.

[Mike Wright]

VD Kareem Hunt had 7 receiving touchdowns in 11 weeks. I agree with Jason that if, if a touchdown regression comes to Patrick Mahomes, that's the biggest place where it's going to happen. But this is what they did. This was a game plan for the Chiefs offense. When they got close to the goal line was the old, the old shovel pass or the old tap pass. I mean, just counting as double for.

[Andy Holloway]

Us, it was the, it was kind of interesting to watch Cream Hunt's beginning of the season right where we were concerned about running back position.

[Mike Wright]

The first three weeks he had three targets total.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And, but I mean, you also had that weird Travis Kelsey Week 1. I mean, Mahomes was getting used to the NFL, got used to it, and he certainly did that pretty quick.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, number six. It's a QB's world and we just live in it. All right. In 2017, there were six quarterbacks to complete 65% or more of their passes. This stat's crazy. In 2018, there were 20 that completed 65% or more of their passes. So the question is, with completion rates higher than they've ever been, how does this affect fantasy and the importance of valuing the quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

And we had in the qualifier for that was you had to play at least eight games.

[Andy Holloway]

So.

[Mike Wright]

So this is not just a guy coming in for one game, playing half in relief.

[Jason Moore]

He was one for one.

[Andy Holloway]

Basically. Jared Goff was right at the 65 mark and finished 20th in the statistic.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Cam Newton's going. I got. Oh, Cam Newton was at 68% this year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Former Cam Newton, his career height. Yeah. I mean, this year you saw something happen in the NFL, as you know, as Andy said, like the chasing, the McVeigh style, the playing into the new rules and the short passing involving more running backs and passing. The total of. If you take the average of all the starting quarterbacks and you look at their quarterback rating this year, their average average was over 90. That's insane. That's above the like the career average of a ton of hall of Famers. So. Yeah, I mean, will this continue? I think it will. This is where, you know, where everything's going. But does. Does it change the value of quarterbacks in fantasy? No, not at all.

[Mike Wright]

Because they're all there.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. If it changes it for, you know, two guys and nobody else is catching on, then yeah, at that point it might change how you evaluate those two guys. But everyone is catching on. Cam Newton's throwing for 68%.

[Andy Holloway]

Obviously. Cam Newton's throwing for 68% and put up a poor fantasy performance relative to previous years when he had a lower completion percentage just the end of the year. Yeah, well, I'm just saying it's not this one statistic, especially when spread out across 20 quarterbacks. It's just a rising water level in that one area for the quarterback position. But like you said, doesn't affect fantasy.

[Jason Moore]

Number five, was. Was Derek Carr on the season? He was, yeah, he was.

[Andy Holloway]

He actually. Yeah. All right. Number seven. I've already renamed it. It's target time.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, you renamed it?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. He's made no sense. There was this one.

[Jason Moore]

I like this.

[Andy Holloway]

There were 10,995 rushing attempts by running backs in 2018. Okay. On average, a running back rushing attempt attempt yielded 0.627 fantasy points, little more.

[Jason Moore]

Than half a point every time a running back got a carry.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, exactly. In a half point league, a running back target was worth almost double. So just a target to the running back was worth on average 1.17 fantasy points per target. That's double. Basically double the value. Not getting the ball handed to you, but just having.

[Jason Moore]

Not even catching it.

[Andy Holloway]

Not even catching it. Just having it thrown your way. And in a full ppr, it's worth two and a half times. So this is illustrating the value of a past catching running back. And so guys like Austin Ekeler. Right. Last year we just talked about The Chargers having two running backs in that top 24. Austin Eckler, Theo Riddick, Naim Hines, Chris Thompson. Chris Thompson, James White, Kenyon Drake, maybe Jalen Samuels for a part of the year. Knowing that value, knowing how much more valuable the target is, are there running backs that we need to look at differently for 2019? How do you make the mental adjustment on a guy like James White who through many metrics show him as the most valuable draft pick in fantasy football this year relative to draft cost? And he's a pass catching running back.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's kind of a trick question, right? Because if you're saying how do. So how do we change with this data, then I would say not at all. Because this isn't surprising. Right. We stack guys out in the ultimate draft kit for the last several years and we give all of the value. You know, we know how much more valuable receptions are than carries. And so when you look at our rankings, they we have that built in. In fact, this crazy stat of, you know, the fact that it was 1.56 points per target in a full PPR that was actually down from the year prior, you know, so it, I think that this is important. If you don't realize how critical, if you're out there and you're new to fantasy or you're picking this up in the off season, you're wanting to get a head start. If you don't realize how critical pass catching is to a running back in fantasy, that's going to change everything for you.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's the message to me, it's that we don't need to wait as long to buy into a pass catching running back only weapon. Does that make sense?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Where sometimes we've wanted to see more consistent snap counts or carry counts or rotation involvement, the value of a guy like Austin Eckler, you could have, if you had made the decision to buy into some of that early, you probably would have gotten some nice weeks out of that. Right. So that's the message to me is that at any moment one of these guys can turn it on as that type of player.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, your Duke Johnson's Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

I again, I don't know what this title means. Number eight, Day of the Dumpster, Mighty Morphin into wide receiver ones.

[Jason Moore]

Now that is actually the title of the first ever Power Rangers episode.

[Andy Holloway]

Is it?

[Jason Moore]

Yes, which is why.

[Andy Holloway]

So this is a deep one.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, this one's digging deep. We will allow this multi layer.

[Andy Holloway]

This is Mike level stuff.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I approve.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. There were 12 wideouts that were drafted outside of the top 40 according to average draft position that had stretches of at least four games. So a whole month as a wide receiver one in half point league. So there were guys drafted deep, deep, deep. 12 of them outside the top 40 that had at least four game stretches where they were a wide receiver one. These guys are Robbie Anderson. Okay. He had a four week span. Mike Williams, Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore, Kenny Golladay, Tyler Lockett, Desean Jackson, Tyrell Williams, free agent Albert Wilson, Dante Pettis, Adam Humphries and Tyler Boyd, all of Those receivers were outside the top 40 in draft position. All of those receivers had four week spans of being a wide receiver one.

[Jason Moore]

At least four weeks. I mean, in the case of some, take Tyler Boyd. It was pretty much all season. From week two through 15, he was a wide receiver one.

[Andy Holloway]

So, you know, is there a name or two that jumps out from that list that you either played a lot in your roster that you can answer the question, do they feel like a wide receiver one to you? And are there some of these guys that you project forward both in draft position but also in value that you think will be there next year?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, the guy that I would talk about would be Dante Pettis. You know, I wouldn't, I don't think I win our dynasty league championship if it wasn't for Pettis. I started him through that entire stretch and it was, it was a good time to have your double flex scoring as a wide receiver one I think he's got the opportunity to step in. It's not, it's not guaranteed that he's going to be the wide receiver one.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

But there is an opportunity that he is Garoppolo's wide receiver one. I love them coming out. He has a lot of film from college of just beating guys in open field and then that translated and he did it in the NFL. So if you want to take a guy and say, okay, who could, who could really continue the trend? And look, when he did it, you know, it was, it was the end of the year. It was weeks 12 through 15. Then he got injured at the very end. He came into his own. So he's the guy that I will project going forward significantly higher than obviously where he was last year.

[Andy Holloway]

He's interesting, this whole list. He doesn't get close to me on wide receiver one potential the way that Kenny Galladay does and the way that I would look at probably Mike Williams, I think Mike Williams and Kenny Golladay, I think have a higher potential of being a wide receiver one in fantasy than Dante Pettis. But he is on the interesting list, no doubt. Mike, do you have a name or two or do you agree or disagree on those guys?

[Mike Wright]

I agree with the thought process that Kenny, both Kenny Golladay and Mike Williams feel like wide receiver ones far more than Dante Pettis. I mean, it's a. And that's just a natural inclination of stature. What I mean, Pettis is a smaller guy. Kenny Golladay and Mike Williams are both prototypical wide foot three. They're big wide receivers, but both of those guys have alpha level players on their team. I mean, Mike Williams has Keenan Allen, Kenny Galladay has Marvin Jones. Dante Pettis doesn't have that. I mean, Pierre Garcon is going to be back. We know that he will be back. Just contractually. I don't know if he'll be on the field very much, but he's at least going to be on the team. And I would take Pettis over Garcon.

[Andy Holloway]

I would be talking about Marquis Goodwin a lot more than I'd be talking about.

[Mike Wright]

That was.

[Andy Holloway]

That was the next one. He was paid to come in, play a heavy role.

[Jason Moore]

Right, but.

[Andy Holloway]

And then can they count George Kittle?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, but. Well, Hunter Henry for Mike Williams. My point was simply that Pettis of. He doesn't feel like the one, but his path to being the main guy on his team. And they could be a very surprising offense next year. Pettis is going to be a very sneaky pick.

[Jason Moore]

I would say that Everybody on the list that you read, Andy, this is a great list. Outside of desean Jackson and Albert Wilson, I really like the entire list. I will target guys, these guys in next year's draft because they showed in a stretch of games that they have the potential to significantly help my fantasy team. And, you know, I'll probably cut Adam.

[Andy Holloway]

Humphries off that list.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, really?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. That's sad.

[Mike Wright]

He's a free agent.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Product of, you know, injuries at the tight end position.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I get it. But he's, you know, pronounced as an umphrey.

[Andy Holloway]

You just want.

[Mike Wright]

It definitely is. I actually think that Albert Wilson's intriguing, at least. I mean, he. He was paid to be a strong part of this offense.

[Andy Holloway]

It's changing head coaches, changing offensive situations, changing quarterback. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Like, could he get a massive upgrade at the quarterback position in Miami? It's at least inside the realm of possibilities now.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, number nine, Jay Grizz says, stream your defenses.

[Mike Wright]

Wow.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Listen to this.

[Mike Wright]

Really?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. The Bears were the number one fantasy defense, leading the league in defense and special teams touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

That's why this is the name of this. This hot stat is blowing my mind right now.

[Andy Holloway]

So they were number one, fewest points allowed. All of that being said about how dominating Chicago was, they only beat the number two defense by two fantasy points per game. And the number seven through 12 defenses were only four points per game behind. In fact, over the last 10 seasons, only one overall number one fantasy defense went on to finish in the top five the next year. So that's over the last 10 years, you only had one top five, repeat the 20152016 Cardinals.

[Mike Wright]

I think the Bears will do it.

[Andy Holloway]

I think the Bears will do it as well.

[Jason Moore]

I think the Bears will still probably be overdrafted that.

[Mike Wright]

Well, I agree with that too.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's a fact. So, you know, we talk about it every year, but it's streaming the defenses is streaming. Defense is the way to go. Yeah, it is. It is the way to go. You cannot invest high draft capital on a position that rarely repeats in multiple years. Turnover. It's not just turnover at the. It's really not even about that. It's just about things like injury, offensive performance. The variables surrounding a defense are. There are so many of them. If you lose one or two players on defense, if Khalil Mack misses for.

[Mike Wright]

Chicago, then they'll still be fine.

[Andy Holloway]

But your draft pick is definitely not worth it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And you've got matchup problems. Whenever you've got a defense, even your great defense, you know, are you going to start that defense against Kansas City and Pat Mahomes or you know.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

That you've. You probably would make a mistake to do that more often than not. So streaming defenses, meaning playing different defenses off the waiver wire and not committing to one the whole time, is. You'll outscore oftentimes the number one scoring defense on the year because you're playing nothing but good matchups. Basically you're playing defenses, you know, against the Bills every week or whoever.

[Andy Holloway]

Pre Josh Allen, Dominion.

[Jason Moore]

Pre Josh Allen, dominance.

[Andy Holloway]

Just stallion number 10. This one's titled you get a touchdown and you get a touchdown.

[Jason Moore]

Look at me.

[Andy Holloway]

You get a touchdown in 2017, it could be a touchdown under your chair. In 2017, there were 738 quarterback passing touchdowns. Last year there were 834. Almost 100 more passing touchdowns. Pat Mahomes led the way with 50. Andrew Luck 39. Matt Ryan 35. Russell Wilson 35. You had nine at 30 or above. So based on that statistic, if you believe that that number is a little high compared to what you'd expect if there's a surplus there. Who are some quarterbacks due for regression?

[Jason Moore]

I don't believe that there is a surplus there. I think that the crazy gap is more indicative of 2017, where, you know, Mike brought up earlier how low it was. Now, now we talked earlier, is it going to regress a little bit? Yeah, probably. And I would say the number one regression candidate, I would still put Pat Mahomes there. And that's to say he finishes number one in passing touchdowns, just with 10 fewer and still is great. But you know, I look at most.

[Andy Holloway]

Of the list still would be number one with 10 fewer like you said.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly.

[Jason Moore]

If he had 10 fewer touchdowns, he, he would rank one. So I think most of the guys on the list that threw near 30 are going to repeat. And I see some guys that didn't who definitely could have. I mean, think about Baker Mayfield. He only threw 27 touchdowns. He only played what, 14 games.

[Andy Holloway]

I'd be concerned. The one that jumps out to me is Russell Wilson because you saw the transition last year, the way they ran the offense, the way that he didn't run the ball as much. He only threw for 3,400 yards, but he had an 8.2 touchdown percentage, which meant he threw 35 touchdowns. That's made. That made his entire fantasy season.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's fair.

[Andy Holloway]

So if you take, you know, he threw her 1500 fewer yards than Patrick Mahomes, so that would be the one that jumps out to me. You could throw in as potential regression.

[Jason Moore]

Kirk Cousins, he just barely got to 30 at 30. And you saw the change that happened when they changed their office of coordinator. Similar to Russell Wilson, they want to shift it away from the passing game, be a more, you know, slow the game down, wind the clock, run the ball. And so around the goal line, he might have a few more opportunities that he had this last year that go away.

[Mike Wright]

I would say Philip Rivers.

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Mike Wright]

Philip Rivers came through with a great year. But much like Russell Wilson over performed, his touchdown percentage was at 6, 6.3%. And it's not that he can't throw 32 touchdowns. I mean he's, he's done that before. But his passing attempts came way down and the touchdowns still stayed up there. So I think it's. If that, if those are the attempts we're going to see from Rivers, I would expect him to be more in that 27, 28.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I can totally get that. And if those three guys all fall.

[Mike Wright]

Below 30, someone else will replace it.

[Jason Moore]

Baker Mayfield, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, those guys should be at that 30 number and they weren't this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I would expect Matthew Stafford to have a much better touchdown performance next season. He lost one of his best weapons midway through the season. Galladay getting established. Marvin Jones was hurt as well. So he didn't have a lot of guys to throw to no carry on Johnson. And so his touchdown percentage was way down. But I could see him getting back to 30 very easily. And you know, obviously wins and foals. Neither of them were in that category of 30 and above. And assuming one gets to play the whole year, that that should happen in Philadelphia as well. So that is it for the top 10 shocking stats of 2018 and some of their fantasy football implications. Any final thoughts from you gentlemen? No. No, no, no, no, no. Neither of you pushed the mute button.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, whoops.

[Mike Wright]

Wait, Brooks, did you hear that?

[Andy Holloway]

Could you guys hear that?

[Mike Wright]

My bad.

[Andy Holloway]

Pristine deal of the day. All right, head over to pristine auction.com. let them know the fantasy footballers sent you today's pristine deal of the day.

[Jason Moore]

It's not. No, it is not. The Devonte Adams signed jersey that went for $62 yesterday.

[Mike Wright]

You're going to bring it up?

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to bring it up. Okay. Because this is great. I mean, look, if you got a Devonte Adams signed Packers Jersey for only 62 bucks, JSA certified. Congratulations, Pristine oxen. We know it's an amazing place. Mike. Mike got something for me. He just won yesterday.

[Andy Holloway]

Something for you?

[Mike Wright]

I got Jason a little.

[Jason Moore]

It's for the office, but it's Virginia.

[Andy Holloway]

But it's better for Jason. Okay.

[Jason Moore]

He got me a Dante Pettis signed Jersey.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, gosh.

[Jason Moore]

29 bucks.

[Andy Holloway]

What?

[Jason Moore]

Stealing it over there?

[Mike Wright]

That is 100% real.

[Andy Holloway]

Like a 49er jersey.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Not like a. Like a. Like a high school collegiate.

[Jason Moore]

Look, you gotta correct, you gotta check them out.

[Mike Wright]

This is why I keep telling people you jump on there every single day. It's an auction format and free account and sometimes things slip through the cracks.

[Jason Moore]

And make sure that when you sign up, you let them know you found out about them for the fantasy football game.

[Andy Holloway]

Was that cheaper than your lunch today?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, lunch was more expensive.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm have to figure out that story very soon. Thank you for listening in to the show. Don't forget to check out ultimatedraftkit.com if you want to get in on that pre order action and that contest. And we will be back with you soon.

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.