Top 10 WR Rankings + Bust Possibilities, Yardage Leaders

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary Episode: Top 10 WR Rankings + Bust Possibilities, Yardage Leaders
Release Date: August 6, 2019

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Introduction and Updates

The episode kicks off with the hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright, welcoming listeners back after their recent live show from Los Angeles. They briefly reminisce about the excitement of the live recording and introduce key updates, including the ongoing giveaways and the Ultimate Draft Kit—a comprehensive resource for fantasy football enthusiasts featuring projections, breakouts, sleepers, busts, and over a hundred player profile videos. Andy humorously encourages listeners to trust his "amazing voice" before diving into the main content.

Wide Receiver Rankings Overview

Jason Moore sets the stage for the episode's primary focus: discussing the top 10 wide receivers (WRs) for the upcoming fantasy football season. He outlines the agenda, which includes ranking the top WRs, identifying potential busts, and predicting yardage leaders. Additionally, Moore mentions incorporating Vegas odds into their analysis to enhance the accuracy of their projections.

Top 10 Wide Receiver Rankings

1. DeAndre Hopkins

Consensus Ranking: DeAndre Hopkins is unanimously recognized as the top WR.
Key Points:

• Consistency & Performance: Hopkins has consistently delivered elite performances, making him a reliable first-round pick.
• Impact of Quarterback Play: Despite playing with varying quarterback performances, Hopkins remains a standout, proving his ability to excel regardless of the offensive circumstances.
• Quote: Brooks: "DeAndre Hopkins was great." [33:15]

2. Davante Adams

Consensus Ranking: Both Jason and Mike rank Adams as their number one WR, while Andy places him fourth.
Key Points:

• High Target Volume: Adams benefits from a high number of targets, particularly in the red zone, contributing to his high touchdown potential.
• Aaron Rodgers' Offense: With Rodgers aiming to maintain a balanced offense, Adams is poised to capitalize on this structure.
• Touchdown Assurance: Adams is favored as a reliable touchdown scorer, making him a safe and high-ceiling option.
• Quote: Jason Moore: "Devonte Adams goes down in targets slightly from last year with more rushing opportunities and better up and coming wide receivers around him." [35:47]

3. Julio Jones

Consensus Ranking: Julio Jones is highly regarded, with Mike and Jason placing him second, and Andy at three.
Key Points:

• Elite Performance: Jones has demonstrated elite consistency, leading in receiving yards for three of the past four seasons.
• Offensive Environment: Playing in the high-powered NFC South, Julio benefits from numerous scoring opportunities.
• Vitality Despite Foot Issues: Despite occasional foot injuries, his performance remains largely unaffected.
• Quote: Brooks: "Julio is great." [38:12]

4. Odell Beckham Jr.

Consensus Ranking: Beckham is positioned as the fourth WR, with varying opinions among the hosts.
Key Points:

• Talent and Upside: Beckham's exceptional catching ability and chemistry with his new quarterback make him a high-potential asset.
• Target Competition: Sharing targets with other talented receivers like Jarvis Landry may slightly limit his overall targets but not his elite status.
• Injury Concerns: While generally durable, Beckham's past injuries are considered, though not a significant deterrent.
• Quote: Brooks: "He is he great." [42:00]

5. Tyreek Hill

Consensus Ranking: Hill is placed fifth, with discussions around his explosive potential balanced against consistency concerns.
Key Points:

• Explosive Plays: Known for monster games, Hill offers high upside, capable of leading the league in yardage if healthy.
• Risk of Inconsistency: His ability to have games with sporadic performance introduces a slight bust risk.
• Mahomes Connection: Playing with Patrick Mahomes ensures a high-powered offense that can maximize Hill's talents.
• Quote: Brooks: "I don't think you're going to see that [Tyreek Hill] mission." [45:40]

6. JuJu Smith-Schuster

Consensus Ranking: JuJu ranks sixth, recognized for his impressive rookie season but evaluated for potential regression.
Key Points:

• Elite Rookie Performance: Smith-Schuster showcased unprecedented production in his first year, making him a promising young talent.
• Offensive Volumes: Continued high targets from the Steelers' offense support his fantasy value.
• Touchdown Potential vs. Targets: While his receptions and yards remain solid, touchdown totals are a key factor in his ranking.
• Quote: Mike Wright: "He's one of the players that I think he will be easily in the top eight." [51:54]

7. Michael Thomas

Consensus Ranking: Positioned seventh, Thomas is viewed with some skepticism despite his high talent.
Key Points:

• High Expectations vs. Production: Despite numerous targets and a hefty contract, Thomas has underperformed relative to his potential, particularly in touchdown output.
• Questionable Catch Efficiency: His reception efficiency has dipped, raising concerns about his ability to secure yards and touchdowns consistently.
• Team Changes: Additions like Jared Cook and potential shifts in the Saints' offense may impact his future performance.
• Quote: Jason Moore: "But how do you explain his floor isn't in the 11:12 touchdown category." [52:26]

8. Ty Hilton

Consensus Ranking: Andy ranks Hilton at 13, Jason at seven, and Mike at eight, highlighting his volatility.
Key Points:

• Dependent on Andrew Luck: Hilton's performance is highly tied to quarterback Andrew Luck's availability and health, introducing significant uncertainty.
• Potential for Upside: If Luck stays healthy, Hilton can be a top contributor with substantial receiving yards and touchdowns.
• Potential Bust: Any prolonged absence or underperformance by Luck could severely impact Hilton's fantasy value.
• Quote: Brooks: "If Luck is proving like he's going to miss two or three games, that changes the equation." [57:59]

9. Mike Evans

Consensus Ranking: Evans is ranked ninth, recognized for his consistent yardage but questioned on touchdown consistency.
Key Points:

• Strong Yardage Leader: Evans consistently racks up receiving yards, making him a reliable mid-round pick.
• Touchdown Dependency: His fantasy value heavily relies on securing double-digit touchdowns, which are not always guaranteed.
• Quarterback Play Impact: Playing with Jameis Winston introduces variability based on Winston's offensive performance.
• Quote: Brooks: "Mike Evans is going to have to have double digit touchdowns to be a top eight type of wide receiver." [63:18]

10. Antonio Brown

Consensus Ranking: Brown sits at number ten, still considered elite but with some caution due to his recent team changes and injury concerns.
Key Points:

• Elite Talent: Brown remains one of the most talented WRs, capable of leading the league in yards and touchdowns with Derek Carr's offense.
• Injury and Foot Issues: Ongoing concerns about Brown's foot health could impact his availability and performance.
• New Team Dynamics: Transitioning to a new team introduces variables that might affect his target volume and consistency.
• Quote: Brooks: "I don't think that the Raiders offense, Derek Carr, is going to get him up to where he's been living in that 12, 13, 14, 15 touchdown range." [65:06]

Potential Busts

The hosts identify Ty Hilton and Mike Evans as notable bust risks within the top 10 WR rankings.
Ty Hilton:

• Reason: His performance is directly linked to the health and availability of QB Andrew Luck. Any extended absence or diminished play from Luck could lead to reduced targets and lower fantasy output.
• Quote: Mike Wright: "If Luck is proving like he's going to miss two or three games, that changes the equation." [57:59]

Mike Evans:

• Reason: Despite his consistent yardage, Evans' reliance on securing multiple touchdowns to elevate his fantasy value introduces risk. Additionally, playing with an inconsistent quarterback like Jameis Winston adds volatility to his performance.
• Quote: Brooks: "Mike Evans is going to have to have double digit touchdowns to be a top eight type of wide receiver." [63:18]

Yardage Leaders Prediction

The hosts discuss potential yardage leaders, with a consensus leaning towards Julio Jones due to his consistent high performance and the offensive scheme of the NFC South. Other contenders like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Michael Thomas are also mentioned as dark horses, contingent on their team's offensive dynamics and quarterback performance.

Key Predictions:

• Julio Jones: Favored to lead in receiving yards given his track record and the high-powered Atlanta offense.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster: Seen as a breakout candidate if the Steelers maintain their offensive consistency.
• Michael Thomas: Despite underwhelming recent performances, his high target volume keeps him in the conversation.

Quote: Moore: "I think he's going to have a great draft pick, but he does carry the off-season problems." [44:45]

Fantasy Football News Highlights

Beyond WR rankings, the episode delves into significant fantasy football news:

• Ezekiel Elliott Holdout: Elliott has expressed unwillingness to play without a new contract, raising concerns about his availability and fantasy impact.

  • Quote: Brooks: "Once a player starts saying, I'm not coming until you give me money, you have to take it seriously in today's NFL." [15:38-16:42]

• Kenyon Drake’s Role: Kenyon Drake's attitude and reduced role in the Miami Dolphins' offense have led to a reevaluation of his fantasy potential.

  • Quote: Brooks: "No coach in the NFL thinks you must have an attitude problem at practice." [07:19-07:43]

• Sony Michel’s Usage: Discussions revolve around whether Michel will be utilized more in the Patriots' passing game, impacting his fantasy value.

  • Quote: Brooks: "If Sony Michel were to be involved in that work, you're talking about a clear cut RB1, get him the field." [27:16-27:53]

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The episode wraps up with final thoughts on the WR rankings, emphasizing the importance of understanding each player's situation and potential risks. The hosts encourage listeners to utilize resources like the Ultimate Draft Kit and stay engaged through their community platforms. They also tease upcoming content and events, maintaining an engaging and interactive relationship with their audience.

Closing Quote: Brooks: "We have a handful of spots left. We'll announce it in a week or so, but there are way more than a handful of deserving submissions." [29:00-29:21]

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This comprehensive discussion by the Fantasy Footballers provides valuable insights for fantasy managers looking to draft the best wide receivers while being mindful of potential risks and busts. The inclusion of notable quotes and detailed analysis ensures that listeners, whether seasoned or newcomers, gain a clear understanding of the WR landscape for the 2019 fantasy football season.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, it's me, the guy who introduces the show. Listen to my amazing voice. Now check out the amazing Ultimate Draft kit. The guys spend all off season creating this bad boy and they keep it updated all off season. It's got their full projections, breakouts, sleepers, busts, over a hundred player profile videos. It's even got a mobile app. Has my incredible voice lulled you into a deep sense of trust and commitment? Perfect. Now check out ultimate draftkit.com and get ready to win your league. Now back to the show. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from Pristine Auction.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, welcome in. That's all I got.

[Mike Wright]

What was that?

[Jason Moore]

Well, I was a little distracted too. Brooks trying to convince me it's Thursday in the dock. Look at his eyes. Look how big his eyes got.

[Mike Wright]

I see Tuesday.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I just wrote Tuesday and Brooks. I see Tuesday. Huh? I. My voice is not ready to go.

[Mike Wright]

Do you need me to handle it?

[Jason Moore]

No, I. God forbid.

[Mike Wright]

Got to give the people what they want.

[Jason Moore]

I'll take care of things. Welcome in. We're back from la. The My guys episode.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, what a show it was.

[Brooks]

That was a blast. I mean, la, that, that crowd, they were. They were ruckus.

[Jason Moore]

Was it LA, Jason, or was St. Louis TBD?

[Brooks]

I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

At the end of the day, the episode, we did it, it was fabulous. And I in particular loved my guys the most of the nine that we brought forth.

[Mike Wright]

That makes sense. It makes sense.

[Jason Moore]

Today we are into the wide receiver rankings. We've got the top 10 wide receivers on the show today. And I'm going to put this in there too. Mike, Jason, at the end of going through our top 10 wideouts, I want you guys to talk to me also about which of that. You know, which of these top 10 guys you think has the highest likelihood to bust? Because every year that's the most painful. You know, if you spend a high draft pick on one of these guys and they let you down, they don't play to expectation. And you spent that draft capital on them. You know, that's what will derail your team the most during a draft, is those high picks. So think about that and then think about maybe which of the top 10 wide receivers you think has the chance to be maybe the yardage leader. I found some Vegas odds on yardage leaders that I'll bring forth as well. And so we'll go through our top 10 wideouts today. Got a great quick question, couple of reminders. First of all, congratulations to Curtis.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, Curtis, you did it, buddy.

[Jason Moore]

Curtis M. To further qualify like so all the Curtis is out there first.

[Brooks]

Curtis Martin.

[Mike Wright]

I thought he was going Curtis.

[Jason Moore]

Curtis won the Mahomes jersey on the website. So the autographed Mahomes jersey, Curtis has been emailed. So if you're a Curtis am out there and you have not received an email, you are not a winner.

[Mike Wright]

Not the mmm we're looking for.

[Brooks]

Check your spam folder though.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, do that every Curtis out there. We'll do another giveaway this month. We don't have it figured out just yet, but we'll do another autograph merch giveaway. We're here five days a week. This is the first day where we're into the regular season routine. How does it feel?

[Brooks]

It feels great. I miss getting into the studio early, flipping them on and recording the flipping the mics and the cameras on and recording, flipping them off. Starting your day the right way.

[Jason Moore]

Let's go.

[Brooks]

The fantasy footballers.

[Jason Moore]

You heard the intro. You can check out the ultimate draft kit@ultimate draft kit.com Drafts are coming quickly. 100 plus player profile videos. We're also partnered with St. Jude this year. Dollar of every UDK sold goes directly to St. Jude. We've got the mobile app. We just made an update to the mobile app yesterday where people have been asking for the league settings like an ADP data change so that you can see what the average draft position is for a six team or an eight team or a ten team league.

[Mike Wright]

Even a two team.

[Jason Moore]

Even a two team. The math does work for that. But you can only in the app you can change your league settings.

[Mike Wright]

I got my homes in the 16th round.

[Jason Moore]

That's right.

[Mike Wright]

It was awesome.

[Jason Moore]

That's right. You can change it and then feel really good about your picks and then if you have your own. My guy. We thought this would be fun. Go on Twitter. We're on Twitter @ the FF Ballers. Use the hashtag my guy. Let us know who your guy is for 2019. We brought forth our nine favorites on the show yesterday, but we'd love to hear from you.

[Brooks]

It's like when you're traveling west and you're putting that flag in the ground saying this is. This is my land now. That's the my guy. Tell us who you're planting your flag on. I want to know how many people are going to if you come to my land of Kerryon Johnson.

[Jason Moore]

Plenty.

[Brooks]

Plenty.

[Mike Wright]

Well, it'll be very, very robust, very dense population in the land of carry on.

[Jason Moore]

Do you Think that carry on will get the goal line work?

[Brooks]

I think he will get enough goal line work. I don't think it's going to be any one. CJ Anderson will be involved sometimes, but.

[Jason Moore]

That will, if he gets the, if he can earn the goal line work, that would be pretty cool. I think he got two carries inside the 10 last year.

[Brooks]

Yeah. And that, I think that's more a problem of how bad the Detroit Lions offense was last year and will be indicated. You know, that could be a very big problem for him this season as well. But he is, I mean, if you go back and watch his college tape, 18 rushing touchdowns his final year in the SEC, he was really good at the goal line. So I think they will utilize him.

[Jason Moore]

All right, name a player you've been changing your opinion on lately. That's today's quick question. Name a player you've been changing your opinion on of late.

[Brooks]

Mine has to be Kenyon Drake. Kenya Drake.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, how sad for you.

[Brooks]

It is sad for me. But look, I mean, Kenyon, I believe in your talent. I believe in your receiving ability. I believe that your body can take the workload. But no coach does. No coach in the NFL thinks you must have an attitude problem at practice, Kenyon. And I'm just gonna say maybe zip it up. Zip it up. Show up early, show up late. Because for some reason, stay late, don't show up late.

[Mike Wright]

How about this? His demeanor is just far too friendly. And they're like, this guy is way, way too nice, too soft to be. I didn't go there. I just went, he's too nice. That he can be. Sure, a starting running back in the NFL, they won't respect us.

[Jason Moore]

No fantasy. No fantasy. Points for nice.

[Brooks]

Yes. So coming into this offseason, I believe based on the talent and the opportunity, the fact they didn't bring in another running back in the Kenyan Drake would have the opportunity to be a three down back as the, as the lion's share in this committee. And it seems like based on what we've seen in training camp, this isn't coach speak. This isn't football fluff or just beat reporters saying what they think is going to happen. The only news that has come out of Miami were just practice snaps, you know, live streaming of who's on the field when they're on. And Caleb Bellage was getting the first crack at first team both on the goal line and in other drills. So Kenyan Drake is not the guy there. That has been established. That's not to say he can't in the season as the better back. He certainly should. But he's not going to be a three down back the way. I hope so. My opinion has changed drastically on him. I saw him as a guy who was a top 15 running back who had the chance to be an RB1 at the end of the year that was going as a mid round guy. I don't see that as a possibility now.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I'll throw out Christian Kirk. I am rising on Christian Kirk, wide receiver for the Arizona Cardinals was a rookie last year on an offense that was pathetic when it came to everything. Number of plays run. Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

When it came to playing the NFL.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, they were the worst offense in football since the 2012 Arizona Cardinals according to J.J. zacharias. And so it was bad in Arizona. And yet Kirk before he had the injury was actually a pretty good player. He seems to be separating himself from the rest of the wide receivers in Arizona. You're talking all the rookies, Isabella Butler, Keyshawn and so and Kirk has such a history. He's the wide receiver equivalent experience wise of Kyler on the offensive side of the ball working in the Cliff Kingsbury system. He already knows what to do. He's a player that can make big time plays. We saw it last year even with Josh Rosen. So I think Christian Kirk is undervalued in drafts. I am. I changed my ranking on him this morning. He is above Larry Fitzgerald by a decent amount. So I think Kirk is going to have a potentially breakout season.

[Mike Wright]

He certainly has more upside than Larry in my opinion. Larry's probably safer in the offense. But back when we were watching tape on Kirk in college we threw out the name a couple times. He looked like Nightcrawler because you would see him lined up on the left side and then all of a sudden he would just teleport somewhere on the field and be wide open. The player I want to highlight, I'm changing my opinion Darrell Henderson. And this is simply because of where he is being drafted and all the news that is coming out that he is great. He is in my opinion easily the second best running back on the team. But it's going to take some time. Those unofficial depth charts which you must always take with a grain of salt that first come out. He's behind John Kelly, he's behind Justin Davis, he is fifth. He will work his way up, I believe to the third player. But Malcolm Brown is there. This is why we talk about drafting a handcuff. We can be so sure that the talent of Darrell Henderson will if Something happened to Todd Gurley. He will rise up and he will seize the moment. He's not throwing away his shot. But then you forget that Malcolm Brown is there and just might be the guy who gets far more work. And Malcolm Brown is not being drafted. Meanwhile, people are taking Darrell Henderson in those mid to late rounds.

[Jason Moore]

I think there's a big difference in playing the complementary role to Todd Gurley. If they reduce his workload, but Gurley's healthy and he's just being the efficient Ty Gurley than if Gurley was out for Darrell Henderson and the potential for that, like Brown, they trust Malcolm Brown, right? They've done nothing but speak highly of him and then they go out and match the contract offer. We've brought that up repeatedly. He's the kind of player where if something, you know, if you start to see more of a rotation, there'll be Darrell Henderson owners that are going to be like why isn't he on the field? It'll be Malcolm Brown for a lot of that.

[Brooks]

And it's crazy too. You know, we were, we were in California hopping in some of the draft best ball leagues in the, you know, the giant three and a half million dollar tournament. I mean Darrell Henderson is going so early and Malcolm Brown I got in the 16th round. He's basically. He might have gone undrafted because it makes no sense. He is currently the backup.

[Mike Wright]

The thing why people are taking him there is because if, like I said, if Gurley is to miss a lot of time and Henderson receives that starting job, then he would be, he'd be out of control. He's easily a top 10 back. But the Malcolm Brown issue, it exists and it should not be ignored.

[Jason Moore]

I do have Gurley at 5 in my running back rankings now and we'll obviously have our running back top 10 show with all of ours. But I'm mentioning it because that's higher than I've had them all off season. But I think he can be the fifth best running back because of that offense. Even with a significantly lower workload. 230 carries is where I have him. I don't know if that's ambitious.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, I certainly agree. I don't have a problem with the ranking of 5. Where, where I have him ranked is simply.

[Jason Moore]

And Melvin Gordon's holding out right now.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah. Is the, the arthritic knee at, at any moment, just after, after a game, if it swells up. Okay, now Gurley is gone for a few weeks while they sit and wait for it, for it to return to playable action.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Yeah, it's, it's, it's not without risk. I mean we talked on the My guys show about whether you'd rather have Carry on or Gurley in a dynasty. In a dynasty startup right now. Carry on 22 girly, 25 years old.

[Mike Wright]

And you guys throw it a couple, couple Twitter polls as well.

[Jason Moore]

It was great because Jason put a poll up and amazingly 65% of people chose Kerryon Johnson, which we just interpreted.

[Brooks]

That means that it's just Jason, my audience, my Carry on truthers.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Brooks]

So Andy, you needed to put a pull up so we could get a fair and honest take.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And it was 65% for carry on Johnson.

[Brooks]

An update to everyone that listened to the LA Live show. I did offer the trade and it did so he the other owner carrying out the players on the 65 side.

[Jason Moore]

If you had had the players on opposite teams and you offered it, it would also have been rejected.

[Brooks]

100% true.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's get into the news.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league presented by Sleeper.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we have to touch on this. The news this morning about Ezekiel Elliott. Once again, you know, representatives for Ezekiel Elliott have come out and said that he will not play without a new contract. This was reported by ESPN's Josina Anderson on Tuesday. And she's an incredible follow all the news she breaks. I believe, you know, sometimes you don't know, you don't know out there. But the source, her source also said, you know, they don't believe it's likely the holdout will continue into the regular season because they believe Jerry Jones wants to get a new deal done. But now the Cowboys, they literally, they're staring down three players right now. It's not just Zeke. Dak is on a walk year. Cooper's on a walk year. Zeke says he won't show up until he has a new contract regardless of the fines. And honestly, he's so, you know, he's so important to the offense, these fines don't matter to him. Is there a chance this goes in the regular season like this report alludes to where you could have. Even if it's a game or two, because I, you know, Jerry Jones has come out and said he's not setting a deadline on getting this thing done.

[Brooks]

They apparently all three of those players have top five offers on the table right now. Nobody's taking it. I know Zeke wants Todd Gurley level money and that's not what the Cowboys want to pay. If anything, Todd Gurley has shown maybe it's a risky move to pay that. But from a fantasy perspective, I remember last year early in the offseason. It's very hard to go back and remember how it felt with Le'Veon Bell. But Le'Veon Bell was safe. He was going to be there.

[Mike Wright]

He was going to show up.

[Brooks]

He said he had no worries.

[Mike Wright]

The difference, as he had said over the off season, Le'Veon Bell had said, I will be there this year. It's going to be my best year ever.

[Brooks]

And then there were, you know, oh, if he's not back by this week, then this happens and yada, yada, yada. But as soon as a player starts saying, I'm not coming until you give me money, you have to take it serious in today's NFL. So, I mean, I already took two games away from him in my stat projections. Insanely. Wow. Two games. Just. Just. Because if you're drafting now, he was my number one running back.

[Jason Moore]

You're. You started him with the risk built in of a couple games out.

[Brooks]

Exactly right. It's not me saying he's good, that that's what he's going to miss. That's just what I think is fair. But what, what blew me away was taking two games away in an only 16 game season. He was my running back. Four. He was, he was still very, very high. So it's risky. You know, I don't know if this means. Do you draft Zeke and then grab Tony Pollard if you're drafting right now and feel safe there? Do. Are we confident that that's even who the backup, who the handcuff would be?

[Mike Wright]

Well, I mean, like right now, their, their unofficial depth chart, you have Darius Jackson at the top. You have Darius, then you have Pollard, then Morris, and at the very back is Mike Weber. It's a, it is an absolute mess.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, Pollard would be the pickup of protection, but we're not kind of in the same situation as Austin Eckler and Justin Jackson. You both of those players you've at least seen on the field. And we're believing Melvin could miss seven, eight games. But look, we're. This is a fluid situation. I still think he signs, I still think this deal gets done, but it's becoming more murky and you have to start doing planning as a fantasy owner.

[Mike Wright]

So then if you're drafting right now, which hopefully you're not, he's still the four.

[Jason Moore]

He's still the four of that pack right now.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no. I'm talking like we all love as of right now, at the very End of your draft, just throw Justin Jackson on the bench.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, just.

[Brooks]

He's.

[Mike Wright]

He's pretty close to free and see what happens. Are you now putting someone like Tony Pollard in that?

[Jason Moore]

Sure, sure. Because if I, if I do that and I draft right now, maybe this situation works itself out. But maybe I can flip Tony Pollard to the Zeke owner because he's freaking out. I mean, that, that would be another option that you have because if two or three weeks goes by, maybe he signs two days before the season starts. He'll probably be fine if he does, but at least you've got a trade chip at the back of the draft. This was a surprise. The Texans waved Deonta Foreman. The Colts then signed Deonta Foreman. John McClain, one of the most trustworthy beat reporters out there in Houston basically said Bill O'Brien was tired of the work habits of Deonta Foreman, wasn't happy. And so behind Lamar Miller now lies a good luck. Just a good luck.

[Mike Wright]

That's what lies behind him.

[Jason Moore]

I don't know these people. I mean Josh Ferguson, I know Taiwan Jones is a blast from the past. The Buddy Howell.

[Mike Wright]

The Texans will be. How nicely done. The Texans will be. They have to add someone. They have to add a veteran. They have to go see if Jay Ajayi wants to be on the team. They need to trade for Duke Johnson or they are inevitable cut of Devonte Booker.

[Brooks]

The reports are that they are looking. If they add a veteran, it's going to be a backup. They're not looking. You know, the Mel Gordon effort, those are canceled. It's just a matter of like Lamar Miller is going to be the guy here. And I think when they sign a backup, Lamar Miller will plummet back to where he was and he was already a value in the drafts.

[Mike Wright]

I mean they were already talking about before they cut Foreman that they wanted to find a third down back. So they're going to find someone who.

[Jason Moore]

Can fill that role which has not been a valuable role.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Brooks]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So just to throw that out there, they just don't throw to the.

[Brooks]

I believe over the last five years they have the fewest passes to the running back position.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's talk about the Colts first real quick. Deontay Foreman. Does it matter to Naim Hines or Marlon Mack?

[Mike Wright]

No, it's.

[Brooks]

It's a matters to Spencer Ware.

[Mike Wright]

Sure. Yeah. He could take Ware's job.

[Jason Moore]

We'll see. Paris Campbell has missed a week of practice due to a hamstring injury. Devin Funches returned to practice. Andrew Luck told Peter King. He believes he'll be ready for week one. Actually. He said he doesn't have any doubts. I certainly believe I will. That's certainly the goal. Well, that doesn't sound great.

[Mike Wright]

You know that for all the dog owners out there, you know that sound that your dog makes right before it throws up?

[Brooks]

Oh, yeah. And you start getting worried and you're like, oh, oh, no.

[Jason Moore]

Outside, get him outside. Get him outside.

[Mike Wright]

We all know the sound and I will save your ears from it, but that's how I feel right now.

[Brooks]

Oh, yeah, here's the sound. The sound is. That's certainly the goal. Outside, outside. Andrew, get out there.

[Jason Moore]

I'll break down the Ty Hilton with and without Andrew Luck numbers later on the top 10 ycs, but here's a spoiler alert. They're not good without Andrew Luck, so that might. That might factor into your Ty Hilton rankings.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, it will.

[Jason Moore]

I probably need to move him down, but it's just. It's not fun. Andrew Luck, so good. That's the goal. Andrew Luck's so good in every metric last year, I mean, he's top five inside the red zone. Keenan Allen had his right leg looked at by the medical team. Walked over on his own. Keenan Allen is fine. So if you saw that report, that's what Anthony Lynn is saying. Keenan Allen is fine. People are just skittish about Keenan in general. And when you have any player that you get blurbed about in the off season with an injury, you hold your breath. Right?

[Mike Wright]

Of course, because you. We've seen plenty of times, oh, player goes down, we. He's. He should be okay. And then a day later, it's, they're out for the season.

[Jason Moore]

But.

[Mike Wright]

So this is not the case for Keenan Allen.

[Jason Moore]

Trey Burton had sports hernia surgery this off season. They say he's unlikely to play in the preseason. Matt Nagy said it's not a setback. Trying to protect him to be ready for week one. Does this report concern you at all? Would you have liked to see him out there in the preseason or.

[Brooks]

Yeah, of course. In general, I like to see all players available for the preseason. That is better than not being available for the preseason. And while Nagy is saying the right things, it is concerning when I take that late round shot. You know, there's a handful of guys that, you know, are basically undrafted tight ends or drafted so late that I can grab them as my last pick. Trey Burton was in that group, and now I'm probably just looking elsewhere until he's on the field and if he doesn't play in preseason at all. That means week one waivers is where I'll be looking for him. And I don't know if this becomes more serious because this was obviously the injury had last season. You know, does Adam Shaheen get a bump up if Trey Burton wasn't there? Is Shaheen become a streamable weekly fantasy option?

[Mike Wright]

Streamable, sure. But I'm not drafting him.

[Jason Moore]

There's a. There's a problem right now in Chicago and in my brain when I think about that offense is I think they're going to be a pretty good offense. But the problem is consistency from any one player, including Alan Robinson, including Anthony Miller, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, even, you know, not quite knowing how the running back's going to shake out with Tariq Cohen, David opportunity. And then like reports this morning that Cordero Patterson has looked great all camp and is running from the running back position and Mike Davis was added. So they seem like one of those teams that is on the far end of the spectrum of predictability when it comes to output.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

But I do think, I guess maybe all of that could say that Trubisky's got an opportunity, a lot of weapons, but we'll see. Pete Carroll said the team doesn't know if Ed Dixon is going to need knee surgery and then Will Disley is going to play in preseason Week one.

[Mike Wright]

Yee haw.

[Brooks]

Big Montana, get ready.

[Mike Wright]

Is this news or is this an excuse to have a hoedown?

[Jason Moore]

You want to know why it's news, Mike? Is because when Will Disney played last year, he was relevant.

[Mike Wright]

He had a reception. That was very relevant. You're correct.

[Jason Moore]

He had multiple.

[Mike Wright]

Did he have the week? I just remember the. I remember the one.

[Jason Moore]

I think it's impressive that Big Montana is healthy for preseason Week one.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, we will. We'll see, man. I mean, even if. Even if he is, quote, healthy and playing, coming back from that injury is. It's near impossible, especially this early.

[Jason Moore]

All right, I do have one last bit of news. I want to get your take on it. Both of you so vehement to insult this man's past catching chops, all based on the fact that we.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, no, no, no.

[Brooks]

It's really not fair to Mike.

[Mike Wright]

You put that evil on me.

[Jason Moore]

All right. The Athletic has reported that Sony Michelle is beating man coverage on the reg, finding soft spots in the zone, being used as a pass catcher frequently in Patriots camp. Let's say this, Mike, I know at the beginning of last season, you were the opposite of that.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

You talked about Sony Michel having the ability and we didn't see it, none of us saw it on the field.

[Mike Wright]

He didn't because he didn't even get an opportunity to show it.

[Jason Moore]

When he had opportunities, he didn't take advantage of them as well.

[Mike Wright]

When you, how many targets did he actually have?

[Jason Moore]

Like same amount as his drops, whatever that is.

[Brooks]

I'm going to guess he had 18.

[Mike Wright]

11 targets, seven receptions.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Well, it's interesting though because Michelle's been lumped in with the Marlon Mack, Derrick Henry category of running backs that you like in standard leagues, that you question about consistency in PPR leagues. But if he's getting pass catching work, which it seems possible that's a three down kind of skill set, that he would be on the field more often if.

[Brooks]

I mean. So my two concerns a couple months ago when I brought up Sony Michelle as a bust candidate was obviously health is the big one with him. He's never been able to stay healthy. And the other is pass catching. Right. Like these. Pass catching. These running backs who don't catch the ball, they can get game scripted out. Harder to do on the Patriots, admittedly, but you know they can, they can really disappoint when they don't get the touchdowns. If Sony Michelle were to be involved in that work, you're talking about a clear cut RB1, get him the field.

[Mike Wright]

Get him 30 receptions.

[Brooks]

I do not believe it happens. I still, you know, look in camp they're every running back is running these routes and doing certain things. I think we've seen on the field how they use him. They have James White, they have currently still Rex Burkhead. Damien Harris has a much better pass catching background. So I do not believe Sony Michelle happens, but you have to, you have to keep an eye on it. This is something where it's like if in the preseason you started to see him running a lot more routes going downfield when he's on the field, I would, I would start moving him.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think we've seen what they want to do with Sony Michelle yet because we haven't had enough of a. He was a rookie last year. I think the strong point is the James White point. I mean you've got a better pass catching option but you need. It's kind of like David Montgomery in Chicago. If you don't involve the first and second down guy, it's like Matt Nagy with Jordan Howard last year. If you can't involve them in the passing game, if you don't write plays to do that, you either can't put them on the field or the team knows what's coming that you're playing against. And that's the problem. You have to be able to throw the ball to these guys in the modern NFL. That was today's news and notes. With fantasy football gearing up, make sure you ask your commissioner if you're using the right platform. Use sleeper. That's where our listener league will be.

[Mike Wright]

You're darn right.

[Jason Moore]

And those listener league entries, by the way, we're going through them, they're unbelievable.

[Mike Wright]

They are incredible.

[Jason Moore]

In some ways, they hurt me physically because I know that I can't let everybody in that put time and effort into it.

[Mike Wright]

And look, it's really your fault.

[Jason Moore]

Really.

[Mike Wright]

It's their fault for being so awesome.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's true. If they were worse, I was worried.

[Brooks]

Where you were going.

[Jason Moore]

I could turn them down because I.

[Brooks]

Can genuinely say my heart breaks. I watch all these amazing songs, these videos, these whatever they're making, and it's like, like, you know, right now we've got a handful of spots left. We'll announce it in a week or so, but there are way more than a handful of deserving submissions. You guys are amazing.

[Mike Wright]

Yep. Before we jump into our top 10 wide receivers, I want to thank today's sponsor, fantasy champs. You need that fantasy football hardware, that gear, letting people know that you are the champ. Well, you go to fancychamps.com you get rings that bling. You get trophies that you need to show your mom. You can get a draft where you doing a live draft. Grab your draft board from fantasychamps.com they even got the belt. You want to. You want to be Hollywood Hulk Hogan out there lording your victories over everyone? Check out fantasychamps.com use the promo code ballers. You save a little bit of quiche.

[Brooks]

We all know you're a champ and if you weren't a champ last year, you're going to be this season. Just pretty pre buy. Call your shot, get your hardware champs.

[Jason Moore]

We also want to thank 23andMe. Sure. DNA testing can tell you a lot about where your ancestors are from. I'm sure you've all seen that. But it can also tell you a lot about your health and the traits that you have. And they keep adding more and more information there. You can understand more about yourself and inform your life moving forward. With 23andMe's health and ancestry service. I did this many years ago. It's proven very valuable multiple times over the last few years. It also gives you all of your data and there are a lot of services where you can import your 23andMe data and get even more information. The right personal health plan starts with the right data and they have 125 personalized genetic reports on your health traits and more insights about your DNA. You can build out a health plan, help you understand genetic predisposition to different things and look, 23andMe reports do not diagnose disease or describe overall likelihood of developing a disease, but they can give you more information and they test selected genetic variants only. Visit 23andMe.com footballers for more important test information. Order your health and ancestry [e-mail] footballers and you can meet your genes in 125 plus personalized genetic reports. That's the number two three and me.com footballers guys ready to talk. Wideouts do it. Wide receivers all right, couple reminders. We are jumping into the top 10 wide receivers right now, but this is our consensus half point per reception rankings. All of these rankings are based on us individually stating the players out. So these are the real season long numbers that we're projecting for them. And obviously when you talk about the top 10 you are splitting hairs at the top because these are the top 10. These are the best players. But so if we say some negative things about certain players, it's trying to give the other side of the coin as to how we make decisions between them.

[Brooks]

Not all of these great worthy players can be number one. In fact only one can. So when they fall three. Thank you. When they follow two and three. Yeah, it's not an indictment that they are always so much worse than that number one ranked guy.

[Jason Moore]

Can we rank all the whiteouts number one and then just be right?

[Brooks]

I think that would make us wrong.

[Mike Wright]

I think we would be right about one of them.

[Jason Moore]

That's true. And a reminder, you know, good offenses matter, opportunities matter, changes of situation matter. And there's a handful of those guys in the top 10 as well. A lot of touchdown variation between wide receivers. Certain players that maybe don't have the volume, you know, they don't get the touchdowns. They're not going to be in that category. But number one, he's number one on my board. Number two on Jason's, number three on mics. Again splitting hairs. It's DeAndre Hopkins. His current average draft position is the wide receiver one. Last year his consistency rank was number two. His season finish was number two. What can you say about DeAndre Hopkins that hasn't been said?

[Brooks]

Man, what can that hasn't been said.

[Jason Moore]

He'S got a perfect 99 Madden rating.

[Brooks]

He had.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, that says a lot.

[Brooks]

Three fewer points per game when Kiki QT was playing. So if you worry, if you're splitting the hairs at the top of the draft and you look at, you know, the top three or four guys, you're trying to tie break, maybe that's the one you want to say. Well, if Kiki QC is healthy and there's more targets to spread around, maybe Hopkins is. I mean, with Kiki Qt on the field, DeAndre Hopkins was great. Just slightly less great than when he was off the field. That's about it. I mean, you're talking about a guy who has done it with terrible quarterbacks in the past. Someone that, you know. You know, that's one of the worries, right. Is always, well, what happens if so and so gets injured? If Deshaun Watson, who hasn't been able to stay on the field. Look, DeAndre Hopkins has been great his entire career other than one year when it was beyond bad quarterback play. But, you know, I remember back four seasons ago, he finishes the number four wide receiver with trash quarterback. So, yeah, Hopkins is great.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Number two is devonte Adams. Jason and Mike both have him as their number one overall wide receiver. I have him at four.

[Brooks]

You're killing us.

[Jason Moore]

I know. And why do you hate. Yeah, you know, you've actually. It's a good point. I have him at 4. He's great. Obviously he never busted last year. 100% of his games were in that good category. He never hurt your team, ever. He was great. 169 targets. But that's part of why I just am tempering a little bit on the yardage numbers for Devonte Adams. Obviously he gets into the end zone. Does he put up 1400 yards again? I don't know. You've spent a lot of your off season, Jason, bringing up the fact that the packers had a historical low amount of rushing attempts last year. This was not prototypical for them. And a lot of expectation out there for Aaron Jones and company in that backfield. Getting back to a more balanced system. So, you know, with players that are maturing like MVS Geronimo Allison's return, a little bit of target distribution. So previously his entire high target number was 121 on a season. He had 169 last year. He had never broken 1,000 yards. So career year for Devonte Adams, no doubt. He's a great player. He's number four for me. I mean, if you want to.

[Brooks]

If you want to make the argument that maybe he'll get fewer targets. I think that's very fair. Aaron Rodgers comes out, says no, I want to target him even more. But mathematically speaking, it's not very realistic based on how you expect the target distribution to be and the pass volume of the packers versus what you saw last year. The two years where Jordy Nelson was basically the wide receiver one in football was awesome. He was still only 151, 152 targets. So I agree that Devonte Adams goes down in targets slightly from last year with more rushing opportunities and better up and coming wide receivers around him. But when you talk about who's going to be the wide receiver one on the season, the wide receiver one on the season always has a ton of touchdowns. You're talking double digit big touchdowns and it's hard. That's a very non sticky stat for most players. But Aaron Rodgers, primary wide receiver one always is among the lead leaders of touchdowns. He targets them around the red zone. That's the reason I've got devonte Adams as my one, because I think if I had to Bet money that one wide receiver this year was getting 14 touchdowns, it would be Devonte Adams.

[Mike Wright]

And last year while the, yeah, the rushing totals were low, so were Aaron Rodgers attempts inside the red zone. You saw an over 30% drop in red zone attempts compared to his average over the last five years. I mean that's from 110 to 100 down to 64 attempts in the red zone. So there's, there's even more opportunity based off of what Aaron Rodgers has historically done. Now it's a new offense, a new offensive coach calling the plays. But I can't imagine we'll see a world where Aaron Rodgers is only throwing the ball in the red zone 64 times again.

[Jason Moore]

All right, number three, we have Julio Jones out of Atlanta. Julio, he is the current wide receiver 3 off the board by average draft position. Last season we saw him emerge from a touchdown slumber. Over the second half of the year he led all wide receivers in percentage of great games. Those are games that we qualify as 20 plus point games. He had seven of them over the last five years. He's finished eighth since, second, sixth, fourth and fifth. What a bum at the wide receiver.

[Mike Wright]

He's, it's, it's him and Antonio Brown. Those are the two guys who have given you elite performance consistently for the last five years.

[Jason Moore]

And there's really based on that, no grounds whatsoever to make light of limping off the field occasionally with his foot. Considering he's finished inside the top six for four consecutive seasons. I have him at two, Mike, you have him at two, Jason at three. So obviously we love Julio Jones.

[Brooks]

It's all about the touchdowns. I mean, we joke that, you know, his nickname.

[Jason Moore]

I just want him to have one year where he has 15 or 16 because it would be a record setting year for fantasy.

[Brooks]

Look, if he had 12, 11, let's say he'd be the wide receiver one. The issue is that's never been what Julio Jones, his modus operandi is not a touchdown machine. That the second half of last year you started to see that happening for him. So there's plenty of reasons to love him. But you're probably not going to see him much this offseason. You're not going to see him much, if at all in the preseason.

[Mike Wright]

Don't need to and you don't need to.

[Jason Moore]

And if you look at what Vegas projects for the odds of a player leading the league in yardage, Julio's all alone at the top at 6 to 1 odds.

[Mike Wright]

He has led the league in yards per game three of the last four years.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah. So he's, he's a machine. He's great. If you had, if I had to bet on one guy ending up the year at number one, like he's number two on my projections. But if I had like percentage chance of being the number one guy, Julio's at the top of my list this year. Does it, does it make a difference that he's in that high flying NFC south too when it comes to tie breaking over some of the top tier guys, I mean, you have an opportunity to be in some high scoring games.

[Mike Wright]

It's nice. If you are one of those fantasy players that says, I, I don't want to take, you know, player X because the division, they have to play these teams six times. Well, that, that should, then you have to translate over that. Julio Jones should get a bump. In your opinion.

[Jason Moore]

All right, Odell Beckham Jr. Comes in as our number four consensus wide receiver. I got him at three, Jason at six, Mike at four. Right now he's being drafted as the fifth wide receiver off the board. We got him a spot higher. Obviously he's one of the players that falls into the category. Look, new coach, new team, new quarterback, but same old Odell Beckham Jr. At least in the way we're projecting him. He's also another one of those players that he's 8 to 1 to lead the league in receiving yardage. So he's in that top four guys that Vegas projects to be in that category. Talk to me about Beckham. What can go right, what can go wrong here?

[Brooks]

I'll talk about what can go wrong since I'm the lowest on him and you know, I love Odell Beckham. I believe he's the most talented wide receiver in the National Football League and he has a pretty darn good quarterback. Not necessarily as good as the other three wide receivers ahead of him in our rankings here. That being said, he also has the best competition for targets around him. The best. You know, with Jarvis, Landry and Joku, I think that there's, you know, there's going to be a difficulty to get Odell Beckham up in the 170 targets. It's not, say it can happen, but the biggest red flag for Odell Beckham and you have to realize it, you have to talk about it because for some reason a lot of times his talent has totally taken away the injury prone label. We know he's been injured before, but he doesn't get classified and lumped in with those players who have the prone, you know, Sammy Watkins. Who out there thinks Sammy watkins is playing 16 games? About nobody. But these two guys were drafted in the exact.

[Jason Moore]

Approximately nobody. Approximately nobody.

[Brooks]

These two guys were both drafted in the 2014 draft class. Same year. Sammy Watkins has played more NFL games than, than Odell Beckham. That's what I had to double check that. You better triple check that. I did. I had to double check because I didn't believe it. Odell Beckham has missed more games than Sammy Watkins in his NFL career. So he is he great. Hundred percent. But is there a worry for either of you guys for injury? Because to me I do have a little bit.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I, I don't really and I think the reason that stat looks the way it does is because Beckham had the catastrophic injury and missed, you know, all but four games in one season. Watkins has the, you know, he's playing every year. Yeah, it's every year a few games. So you just kind of get fatigued. There's not the fatigue there because you lost Beckham and then you, you know, obviously last year you had, you had issues to 12 games played. But it was more to me when I think about interpreting kind of the feeling that I have is it's just that catastrophic injury.

[Mike Wright]

And what I like for Odo Beckham for his upside one, I mean he makes his quarterback better. Eli Manning was 3 percentage points better to his, to his completion percentage when Odo Beckham's on the field and he's playing with Baker, who last year as a rookie thrown into. I would think we can all agree that it was a very tumultuous situation in Cleveland. Had coaching change right in the middle of the year. Baker starting in week three like there was. Baker was up against it and he still succeeded. Baker had the second best passer rating in the red zone behind only Drew Brees. You know who else is great in the red zone? Odell Beckham. This is a perfect match when it comes to scoring touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

All right, number five on our list, Tyreek Hill out of Kansas City last year. He finished the season as the wide receiver one in half point. In half point we've got him at Jason at 4, I'm at 5, Mike's at 6. When it was, when it came out that he was going to be active and playing, I think there's a lot of people that said, hey, how does he not just end up a little bit higher on your ranks? He was incredible last year. He did bust about 20% of the time because he had these monstrous games. You know, if you had him in weeks 10 and 11, he was the number one wide receiver, but he had games in the single digits a handful of times. What are we expecting from Tyreek hill in year two with Patrick Mahomes 15th most consistent but finished at number one. So maybe this is preferential on the type of guy you want at the top of your board.

[Brooks]

Certainly. I mean, Tyree Kill is going to have the bigger monster games and then sometimes if it's Travis Kelsey having the monster game and they don't need Tyreek, you're going to see that sometimes. But the expectation for Tyreek Hill is simply that he is a number one wide receiver on the number one offense in the league who finished as the number one in fantasy. You should expect a superstar week in, week out. He's going to be a great draft pick. But he does carry the whole off season problems and everything that went. You carry risk with that. Any event, any stupid thing that happens out in the world there carries a little bit of higher risk with a player like that. So I don't think you're, you know, I, I don't expect that to happen, but you can't just be ignorant to the possibility that something could happen that way.

[Jason Moore]

2720 plus yard receptions last year, that was number one in football. If he's healthy off the field, is there any world where he can can't finish in a top 10?

[Mike Wright]

No. Outside of the top 10.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Is there any way that he doesn't finish as a top 10?

[Mike Wright]

No. I mean, worst case scenario, assuming he's playing all 16 games, would be that 9, 10 range. He just happens to have fewer. Have fewer of the, of the monster games and disappoints a little bit.

[Jason Moore]

If he's the. Your number one wide out, you end up with him. Do you conscientiously pair him with a more consistent type of player?

[Mike Wright]

I think that's a wise choice.

[Jason Moore]

Like, I mean, I imagine Tyreek Hill, Julian Edelman, stacks will exist in all over the place.

[Brooks]

I would be happy with that stack. I don't think you have to. I mean, last year he had those games where he disappeared. So did Michael Thomas. Two seasons ago, Michael Thomas was the most consistent player. You can't really predict those games. He's great. And I think you just take him as what he is and draft the best player available. I don't think you have to like, he's not Amari Cooper where you're going. I'm worried that half of my points on the season are coming from, you know, half of his game or half of his points come from half of his games. Be pretty consistent, really. But if half of his points come from a handful of games, I mean, we talk about a 19% bust rate, which based on these other guys, sounds terrible.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, it does.

[Brooks]

But as a wide receiver, 19 bust rate is well among the top as far as fewest in fantasy.

[Jason Moore]

All right, number six, juju Smith. Schuster had a heck of a year last year. 111 receptions, 1426 yards, seven touchdowns on 166 targets. Mike, you brought up at the live show. Look, he's in the elite, unprecedented category of production at the wide receiver position to start a career.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

One thing that will help that is playing in today's NFL and being a recipient of 689 pass attempts from the Pittsburgh Steelers offense last year, led the league, was kind of out of bounds for anything we've ever seen from Big Ben in his. In his career. But this is an interesting. This is where you start to get into more interesting names in general. Obviously, we know that guys at the top are great. Jason, you have him at five. Mike, you have juju at five. I have him at six. He's one of the players that I.

[Mike Wright]

Saying your own ranking is too low.

[Brooks]

I'm saying my own ranking of 5 is way too low.

[Jason Moore]

They're way too low.

[Mike Wright]

Not just too low. There's only four spots.

[Jason Moore]

Two things about that, Jason. Number one, you have full Autonomy over your own rankings. So you have no one to blame but yourself if you believe that. Number two, there are more risks to juju than other players in my opinion. I know you guys don't share that opinion, but you lose Antonio Brown. I don't expect him to throw as much as they did last year and I think they certainly will not. And I think that it's presumptuous to just say I know that there's room for margin wise for him to go up in touchdowns. That's obvious. He had seven last year. 166 targets. But there's also room to go down in terms of total receptions and total yardage. I mean you're not generally going to have, you know, 14, 26 yards is a lot. So last year he was the wide receiver. 9 with that stat line. 111, 14, 26 and 7. Tell me why you think he's more invulnerable than I believe.

[Brooks]

I think he's more invulnerable than you believe because you have, I mean you don't believe that the Steelers are going to be as great an offense as they have been in the past. I think that they will be one of the, you know, top eight offenses in the league. He's already established himself as a world class wide receiver and now you're going and pairing him with a quarterback who will hyper target a world class wide receiver to the end of the world. I mean some of the targets that Antonio Brown got, I know it's difficult for juju to go up in targets but it can still happen. But the other, and I think the more important factor is the touchdowns. You had several plays last year where juju was tackled inside the two yard line.

[Mike Wright]

Call that Calvin.

[Brooks]

Yes, that one. Calvin Johnson year you had Antonio Brown With 15 touchdowns gone from the team and it's, it's, you know, look, the team, the city, they have rallied around juju Smith Schuster as their future star. Is it going to be easy for him?

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Brooks]

This is going to be the first introduction to double and triple coverage. You know, he's had the luxury of playing with Antonio Brown but in the small sample size of games without Antonio Brown he has been Antonio Brown levels. So what I see is a player who could very well end up as the wide receiver one in fantasy football because if he ends up with double digit touchdowns, which it's certainly plausible, it's very plausible, his target number is going to be high. His yardage, he's the alpha for this team. So it's just A matter of can he get the job done or not. I don't think he can.

[Jason Moore]

In reception perception, he finished below the third percentile and success rate versus press coverage in both of his first two seasons. Obviously it didn't hinder his fantasy production to this point, but without Brown, it'll be interesting to see what he does on the outside against those coverages which he struggled with from a success rate, not from a fantasy perspective. Mike, did you want to say anything about juju?

[Mike Wright]

No. I completely side with Jason that I think he has proven himself to be one of the top wide receivers and there will be growing pains, but by the end of the year, I believe he will be easily in. Easily in the top eight with. With a ceiling of number one.

[Brooks]

He's, you know, he's 22 years old right now, which is insane to think that this guy coming into his third season.

[Jason Moore]

I've never heard of that age before. You're right.

[Brooks]

I mean players at this age that have scored more fantasy points than juju. Smith Schuster is Larry Fitzgerald. End of list.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, no doubt. Michael Thomas comes in at number seven on our list.

[Mike Wright]

Pretty comes in with his Rolls Royce.

[Jason Moore]

At his $100 million last year. 125 receptions, 1405 yards, nine touchdowns.

[Brooks]

Money.

[Jason Moore]

Thomas just. Yes, money. Thomas just got paid. Did all that on 147 targets. So put up over 1400 yards with about 20 less targets than Juju did. For some reason, people don't want to crown Thomas as anything kind of inside that top five range. And I guess I'm curious as to why we can't get a Michael Thomas season in the 11:12 touchdown category. That's not within the realm of possibility. Finished seventh, sixth and sixth in his three NFL seasons. Obviously bummed people out at the end of last year. Weeks 15 and 17 really disappointing years. So you're burned by it. But obviously they paid him. He's the highest paid wide receiver in football, so they believe something about him being an alpha as well.

[Brooks]

When you said there's something, you know, that stops people from really putting him up at the, you know, in the conversation for the wide receiver one, all that comes in my head is there is something. What is it like, I can't wrestle with. He's always been a top fantasy option. He is the clear one for his team. Drew Brees is his quarterback. There's nothing not to love about Michael Thomas. If I have to pick my argument and say, okay, well then why when I stat him out, does he never really compete with those tip Top players. It's just a matter of targets, right? Some of those other guys can get up in the 160, 170 target range. Michael Thomas has yet to hit 150 targets. Granted, he catches almost all of them, but you know, it's hard if you're not hitting that 150 target number. And you see. And look at this season, okay, they added Jared Cook. Ted Ginn is back year two for Treekwon. Is his target number going to rise this year to a new level that it never has? I would doubt it. I still think he's going to be great, maybe about 150. But that's the reason for me is just like if he, if he, if he finishes with 145 targets, he's going to be a top 10 wide receiver for sure. Can he be the number one? It would take a lot of touchdowns.

[Mike Wright]

And we have seen, we've seen the season with Michael Thomas having almost identical targets. But he doesn't put up a, in a historically elite catch percentage on those targets. We see him just put up a great catch percentage. And that was his sophomore year where 149 targets, but he dropped to 104 receptions, just 1250 yards. About. That's, that's the problem where he has to play at a, at a pace that even as great as Michael Thomas is, I think him being at the 85% catch range on 150 targets, it's, it's not going to happen again. So that, that's, that's where the problem is. I think we have seen him at the top of his receptions, the touchdowns, that, that, that's the questionable mark, but I just don't see him being that 11 + touchdown guy.

[Jason Moore]

All right. I don't, I can't imagine him not receiving the same target totals this year than he.

[Brooks]

Yeah, we're not arguing the targets. He'll be 145 to 153 targets for sure. It's just, can he, can he walk away with 125 receptions or 105 or. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Ty Hilton comes in at number eight. I have him at seven, Mike at eight, Jason at 13. Hilton has had a very interesting career attached a lot to what quarterback is throwing him the football. The numbers last year, kind of insane when he's been with Andrew Luck over his career, he averages 80 receptions for 1300 yards and seven touchdowns. Without Andrew Luck, he averages 60 receptions, 982 yards and four touchdowns. Last year, from week 11 on, he was on pace for 107 receptions and 1920 yards with Andrew Luck over the back half of the year when he was also limping. So the upside is great. He's. We've seen a season where he's been the number five overall fantasy wide receiver. But his health, Andrew Luck's health, what this offense looks like, that's the question mark if you know. I'll answer this question early. If there's one guy in the top 10 that I worry about having a bust season, it's Ty Hilton because he doesn't lean on 125 receptions for his baseline. That being said, he also doesn't lean on 10 touchdowns to be relevant. He's not going to be a guy that scores in double digits. He never does if he ever did. You're talking about a top three type of player. So Hilton this year, what do you guys think? How much of this is kind of murky due to the Andrew Luck situation?

[Mike Wright]

You can't even really talk about Ty Hilton without talking about Andrew Luck. And Andrew Luck is the key to everything for Hilton. Where 2017 Hilton was wide receiver 25 right before that. That's when he was sensational. So it's, this is all about Andrew Luck to me and per Matthew Betts who is one of our writers, this is specifically for Andrew Luck. Calf strains have one of the highest recurrence rates. So it's, it's very hard at this point to rally behind Andrew Luck as one being completely himself if he does manage to play all 16 and 2 percentage chance that he doesn't actually play all 16.

[Brooks]

So I've still got Ty Hilton. Obviously I've got him the lowest at wide receiver 13. That is him being statted out with Andrew Luck. I mean we've seen a lot of games with Andrew Luck and some of them in certain spurts of certain seasons have been outrageously productive, some have been less productive. But essentially his 16 game pace in games when playing with Andrew Luck is about 1260 yards and seven touchdowns per every 16 games he plays with Andrew Luck. If you stat him out like that, to me he is, you know, while stating out every other wide receiver he would be the wide receiver 12. So I, and I think that's about where he belongs. I don't see him as a top five guy because I don't see double digit touchdowns in his future. I don't see 100 receptions in his future. So he is, he certainly has great talent, great quarterback, great offensive play calling head coach. But I don't have him as an upper echelon guy. And I completely agree with you, Andy. Who is the one most likely to bust? It would be Ty Hilton for me, who's not even in my top 10.

[Jason Moore]

All right, Mike Evans at number nine. I got him at 11, Jason at nine, Mike at 10. His current average draft position. By the way, Ty Hilton's going in the third round at the wide receiver 10. So if you are going, you know, running back, running back, you're going to have a decision to make about Cy Hilton and other players to be your wide receiver one, which is the decision I've had in a lot of best ball drafts. It's the decision I've had in a lot of mock drafts. I'm taking him everywhere because I'm not. I'm not over reading the Luck situation yet because I don't. I don't think I'm going to redefine Hilton. You know, I move luck from 2 to 5 based on the calf. I'm going to. If Luck is proving like he's going to miss two or three games, that changes the equation. But right now I'm just looking at the upside of Hilton being my wide receiver one. In the third round, Evans is being drafted at 209, just ahead of him. His consistency rank last year was number 11. He finished the season as the wide receiver 8 had 86 receptions for 1524 yards and 8 touchdowns on 138 targets. Mike Evans is a great receiver. Yes, we know that Jameis Winston is an inconsistent passer.

[Mike Wright]

We also know that he's the least.

[Jason Moore]

Like of all the guys we've named. He's the one. You know, kind of the quarterback play is going to directly affect the wide receiver play and maybe cap the upside.

[Brooks]

Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Big Ben, we got Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson and then Jameis Winston.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you have to bank on Winston being good enough in an Aryans offense just to throw it out there. Evans's career targets thus far, 1221-481731-36138. Godwin emerging in the offense. Bruce Arians likes to throw the football. Is he being undervalued at 209? Do you think that's about the right place considering the Winston risk?

[Mike Wright]

I think it's a fair value, yeah, considering the risk. But we have seen Bruce Arians offense offenses have tremendous success, especially with their wide receiver ones.

[Brooks]

You.

[Mike Wright]

Larry Fitzgerald's career was completely revitalized and brought back to the forefront when Bruce Arians was the head coach in Arizona, where Larry jumped up to 145 targets. 150, 161, all three of those seasons, over a thousand yards.

[Jason Moore]

Can't you make the case though, it wasn't just Arians, it was Carson Palmer. Yeah, yeah, he was getting a competent quarterback in the offense.

[Mike Wright]

Of course that does factor in there. But Mike Evans has also had great success with Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Like guys who aren't playing at the level that Carson Palmer was playing at during those years.

[Jason Moore]

One thing that's interesting because I tweeted out the best red zone quarterbacks last year by pass rating earlier this morning. The one when you quoted Baker at number two.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Ryan Fitzpatrick was the worst in football, 36 in the red zone. And that matches with the quantity, incredible quantity of red zone targets that Mike Evans had. He was in the upper echelon, didn't end up with double digit touchdowns. That would be an area that, you know, if things go right, if they're still throwing in the red zone, we know that Evans can put up 15 touchdowns. That's the kind of player he is.

[Mike Wright]

And that's, that's what has happened throughout his career. His rookie year when he was wide receiver 12. That's because they hit that. The connection in the 12 was there. It flip flopped the next year and then came right back in 2016. It was Mike Evans being at the top is directly correlated with his success inside the red zone. He is a great wide receiver. He's going to give you a thousand yards. But that's, that's why I think him being at the back of the second round, it's fair with the risk mitigation knowing that he has to be up there in touchdowns to really finish in the touchdown.

[Brooks]

Yeah, because he's not 100 reception type of player. I mean he's going to be in the 70s or 80s in receptions, which means you have to get a lot of touchdowns. He only had one year where he was, you know, 96 receptions, but on that year that was an outlandish 173 targets. And of course he only caught a very poor 55%. So yeah, I mean if he's, if he's much more. With Godwin coming into the slot, gaining some more targets, I think that Mike Evans is going to have to have double digit touchdowns to be a top eight type of wide receiver. Where we have him ranked, it's pretty much about where, you know, I think he finishes with about nine touchdowns. 7580 receptions, 1100 yards. He's got. He's good, but I have a really hard time. I've seen some people that say he should be in that top tier, literally the top with the other guys. I just can't buy that with Jameis.

[Jason Moore]

All right, number 10 on the list, Antonio Brown, the goat, the greatest, you know, quick to put Odell Beckham at the top of the list. With a new team and a new franchise, Antonio Brown's not getting that respect. Being drafted as the wide receiver 8 has some questions about the feet right now, but all the reports are that it's, you know, day to day type of stuff. AB all he's done is finished sixth. First, first, third, second, fourth. Now he's being ranked at 10 by us. I think things can go. I think he has a pretty wide range of outcomes in Oakland. He could still. Here's what I believe and I'll ask the question to you. I think Antonio Brown can end the year as the wide receiver one. Do you believe that?

[Brooks]

No.

[Mike Wright]

No. Not at number one. No.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Mike Wright]

Top three. Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Last year, 104 for 12, 97 and 15 on 168 targets in just 15 games. He should be heavily targeted in this offense by Derek Carr. He was the prize of the off season for Oakland. We'll get a chance to see him tonight, maybe on Hard Knocks as the Raiders are covered this season.

[Brooks]

I can't wait.

[Jason Moore]

Are we drafting him at his floor when we talk about him being wide receiver 10 here?

[Brooks]

Yeah, I mean, I think wide receiver 10 is near his floor. You've got a guy who's paid so much money and is coming in that he, there's, I mean, if he gets fewer than 160 targets, then he didn't play 16 games. I mean, he's going to have so many targets and he is so good that he's, I think, a very safe wide receiver. I've got him as my wide receiver 8. While I say, no, he can't finish as a wide receiver one that's solely on the back of touchdowns. I just don't think that the Raiders offense, Derek Carr, is going to get him up to where he's been living in that 12, 13, 14, 15 touchdown range. And if he finishes as a great season, 170 targets, a lot of yards, but he only has, you know, eight or nine touchdowns, then he's going to be around, you know, the wide receiver 5 or 6. Do either of you have concerns over the foot issues? I mean, we've. If you haven't seen the pictures don't do it.

[Mike Wright]

Not yet. I mean, not yet. Antonio Brown will play through. That's. That's what I believe. I believe if you had a game tomorrow, Antonio Brown would be out there. Even with those feet, he would do whatever he had to do.

[Brooks]

And it's not. It's not like an internal foot issue. It's not a bone. It's not a Lis Frank type. This is just, you know, the skin on the bottom of the foot that is. Has been run ragged. So I don't. I don't see big problems.

[Mike Wright]

So. Last year, Derek Carr targeted receivers at an average depth of 6.8 yards. That's the second lowest of the qualified quarterbacks. And he only threw deep on 10.1% of his attempts. That's tied for fifth lowest. So. And maybe that's a product of what he was working with.

[Brooks]

It is, but.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, we'll see.

[Brooks]

I believe.

[Mike Wright]

Sure. I'm just presenting. Presenting the numbers. So. And saying that if Antonio Brown is going to finish, if he's going to have the chance to finish a number one, those two numbers have to change dramatically.

[Jason Moore]

All right, that's our top 10 consensus wide receiver rankings. We'll get into more whiteouts tomorrow, into some of those more interesting names. Who's your bust pick? Jason? You said you'd be Hilton. I'd be Hilton. Mike, is there somebody different for you in that top 10 that you think has a chance of disappointing owners? Because if you bust out in that top 10, that's going to leave a mark.

[Mike Wright]

I think Hilton is kind of the easier one just based off of the Andrew Lock injury news. But I will say to not just be the exact same as you guys. I will say Evans.

[Brooks]

Okay, real quick. What wide receiver led the Raiders in receptions last season?

[Mike Wright]

What wide receiver?

[Brooks]

What wide receiver?

[Jason Moore]

Aitman.

[Brooks]

Nope.

[Mike Wright]

Holmes.

[Brooks]

I'll give you a hint. He just retired as a cream PayPal.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, Jordy.

[Brooks]

Jordy Nelson.

[Mike Wright]

Actually, let me.

[Jason Moore]

It was Jared Cook. They had nobody. Yeah, they had literally nobody, is the answer to that question.

[Mike Wright]

Well, they did have Amari Cooper and they traded him away.

[Brooks]

Their third prediction for the receiver at.

[Jason Moore]

Wide receiver predict the yardage leader right now. Which, by the way, Julio.

[Mike Wright]

I'll go Julio. Yeah, hold on, hold on.

[Jason Moore]

I will take Dark outside of Julio, who always does it, Dark horse yardage leader out of the rest of the crop.

[Brooks]

I'm going to take Tyree Kill.

[Jason Moore]

Tyree Kill. All right, he's at 10 to 1 right now, tied with Evan Schuster and Adams.

[Brooks]

Oh, I should have gone Schuster. A star has been born.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I would say my dark horse would be Schuster.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. All right, I'll go. Michael Thomas.

[Mike Wright]

Not bad.

[Jason Moore]

Michael Thomas. All right, we're done for today. A quick shout out.

[Brooks]

That's it.

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye. My voice is done for the day. It was done before we started. I haven't recovered from. We're going to post this video, I think. I think we're going to post this video where we had our footballer staff in a foot race from our hotel in Santa Monica for this live show.

[Mike Wright]

High stakes.

[Jason Moore]

High stakes foot race of.

[Mike Wright]

Look, this should not have happened.

[Brooks]

But it did.

[Jason Moore]

It did happen. Look, it's been a long tour. We've been traveling around. They've been doing incredible work and we said, hey, let's reward them, but let's make sure we're entertained by doing so. So we put some money on the table. Judge Giamatti, Al Borland.

[Brooks]

They basically had a half mile race.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. 1,000ft of sand. You had to. It was pitch black and you had to sprint from basically where we were at our hotel across the street, across the pedestrian bridge, across a thousand feet of sand and leap into the Ocean at about 10 at night.

[Brooks]

Oh, who won? You want to know, don't you?

[Jason Moore]

All I'm saying, I say all of that amazing story both to tease wherever we're gonna post that thing, but also to explain why I won't tell you who won. But I did a lot of screaming at the beach.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

To celebrate the victory because I was shocked.

[Mike Wright]

And then there was the live show. There was screaming there as well.

[Jason Moore]

They were screaming at the live show. But as we close it out, we want to thank our studio sponsor, Pristine auction. [e-mail] and DeAndre Hopkins signed. Houston Texas. Jersey went for 90 bucks. That's a steal. Number one on our rankings, DeAndre Hopkins. And there are hundreds of daily auctions. Check them out over [e-mail] and use the registration code ballers when you do so you get five bucks. Thanks for tuning in. Five days a week. We'll be back.

[Mike Wright]

You'll be back tomorrow. See you then. Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter @the ffballers.