Top 20 Countdown + Big Bear Value

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Episode Summary: "Top 20 Countdown + Big Bear Value"

Release Date: July 3, 2018
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright (with guest J. Grizz)

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1. Introduction and Community Engagement (00:00 - 02:25)

Andy Holloway kicks off the episode with a vibrant greeting to the Foot Clan community, encouraging listeners to vote for the Fantasy Footballers Podcast in the People’s Choice Sports and Recreation Podcast of the Year awards.

• Andy Holloway (00:03): "What's going on? Foot Clan."
• Jason Moore (00:26): "Make sure when you go to footclanvote.com you check the box that says you want to be one of the voters."

The hosts briefly discuss the show’s lineup, noting Mike Wright's absence and the appearance of J. Grizz, who brings his own unique flair to the session.

2. Announcing Increased Frequency and New Shows (02:25 - 08:56)

A significant announcement is made regarding the podcast's expansion to three shows a week, with plans to scale up to five shows weekly from August through December. Additionally, the hosts introduce their new venture, the Spitballers Podcast, a weekly hour-long debate show focused on light-hearted, family-friendly topics.

• Jason Moore (02:32): "It's over 1 million shows."
• Andy Holloway (08:18): "We are ridiculous human beings... Spitballers Podcast."

3. NFL News and Updates (09:14 - 37:56)

a. Jameis Winston Suspension (09:14 - 12:54)

The podcast delves into Jameis Winston’s three-game suspension due to a personal conduct policy violation. The hosts commend Winston for accepting the suspension without appeal, emphasizing the importance of accountability for a franchise quarterback.

• Jason Moore (09:49): "He recognized that he was in the wrong, that he needs to do better."

b. Robert Turbin Suspension and Impact on the Colts (12:54 - 19:04)

Robert Turbin of the Colts is suspended for four games for a performance-enhancing drug violation. This development opens up opportunities for players like Jordan Wilkins and Marlon Mack, shifting the running back dynamics within the team.

• Andy Holloway (12:54): "This suspension completely changed the equation for Turbin on the entire year."
• Jason Moore (19:04): "Turbin is now irrelevant."

c. Additional NFL Insights (19:04 - 37:56)

The hosts touch on various NFL topics, including team strategies, player performances, and potential shifts in team dynamics, offering their expert analysis on how these factors influence fantasy football decisions.

• Andy Holloway (26:09): "Christian McCaffrey finished the 11th best running back last year in PPR leagues."
• Jason Moore (36:53): "Likely, the offense will take a step back."

4. Top 20 Players Countdown (14:07 - 48:44)

The core of the episode features a comprehensive countdown of the top 20 fantasy football players, blending running backs and wide receivers based on consensus rankings.

a. Highlighted Players:

1. Devonta Freeman (#20):

   • Andy Holloway (14:10): "Devonta Freeman had incredible 2015 and 2016 seasons but saw a drop in targets last year."
   • Jason Moore (15:23): "Devonta Freeman right now is a great value."

2. Michael Thomas (#19):

   • Andy Holloway (17:12): "Michael Thomas is consistent and finished seventh and sixth in fantasy last two seasons."
   • Jason Moore (19:46): "Michael Thomas is ripped and has unbelievable hands."

3. Keenan Allen (#18):

   • Andy Holloway (21:16): "Keenan Allen had a banner year last season with standout finishes."
   • Jason Moore (23:45): "If he's on the field, he's going to be great."

4. Christian McCaffrey (#17):

   • Andy Holloway (26:09): "Christian McCaffrey was a multi-faceted weapon last season."
   • Jason Moore (28:11): "Christian McCaffrey's draft position has higher risk than it seems."

5. Dalvin Cook (#12):

   • Andy Holloway (42:06): "Dalvin Cook is a talented running back returning from injury on a great team."
   • Jason Moore (42:25): "Dalvin Cook is being drafted as the 10th running back on the board."

6. Leonard Fournette (#13):

   • Andy Holloway (39:06): "Leonard Fournette had a solid season despite missing games."
   • Jason Moore (39:08): "Leonard Fournette is a beast and a primary producer."

7. Julio Jones (#11):

   • Andy Holloway (46:22): "Julio Jones has been inconsistent but remains a top fantasy receiver."
   • Jason Moore (47:36): "I see Julio Jones dropping into the mid-rounds this season."

8. Odell Beckham Jr. (#10):

   • Andy Holloway (48:06): "Odell Beckham Jr. has been a reliable fantasy performer."
   • Jason Moore (48:39): "Odell Beckham is very good and not to be underestimated."

b. Notable Insights:

• Value Assessment: Players like [Leonard Fournette and Keenan Allen] are highlighted for their high potential and consistency despite some risks.
• Risk Factors: Discussions around injuries and team dynamics, especially concerning players like [Christian McCaffrey] and [Dalvin Cook], emphasize the balance between high ceilings and potential setbacks.
• Draft Strategy: The hosts provide nuanced views on drafting positions, suggesting flexibility based on player performance and team changes.

5. Mailbag Segment (49:28 - 58:14)

The hosts engage with listener questions, offering personalized advice on fantasy football strategies.

a. Super Flex and Dynasty Leagues:

Listeners inquire about adapting draft strategies for Super Flex and dynasty leagues. The hosts emphasize maintaining a tier-based approach while adjusting for the increased value of quarterbacks.

• Jason Moore (50:22): "Don't overemphasize the quarterback."

b. Providing Advice to League Mates:

A question arises about whether it’s fair to provide potentially misleading advice to league mates known for relying on the listener’s expertise. The hosts discuss the ethical considerations, balancing friendly competition with supportive advice.

• Jason Moore (53:23): "If it's a long-time league with buddies, I’m tricking them to the best of my ability."

c. Reaching for Mark Ingram:

A listener seeks advice on drafting Mark Ingram and weighing his short-term gains against long-term reliability. The hosts discuss the potential risks and benefits based on team dynamics and player history.

• Andy Holloway (55:29): "He’s a free agent, isn’t he, after this season."
• Jason Moore (55:35): "He's 29 years old, and there is still the world where someone comes in."

6. Closing Remarks and Final Announcements (58:03 - End)

As the episode concludes, the hosts remind listeners to nominate the podcast for awards and promote their live show in Dallas, emphasizing community engagement and upcoming events.

• Andy Holloway (57:00): "Go to ballerslive.com the shows are a great time."
• Jason Moore (58:14): "Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter @TheFFBallers."

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Notable Quotes:

• Andy Holloway (02:25): "We're moving to five shows a week from August through December."
• Jason Moore (09:49): "He recognized that he was in the wrong, that he needs to do better."
• Andy Holloway (14:10): "Devonta Freeman had incredible 2015 and 2016 seasons but saw a drop in targets last year."
• Jason Moore (15:23): "Devonta Freeman right now is a great value."
• Jason Moore (19:46): "Michael Thomas is ripped and has unbelievable hands."
• Andy Holloway (21:16): "Keenan Allen had a banner year last season with standout finishes."
• Jason Moore (23:45): "If he's on the field, he's going to be great."
• Jason Moore (53:23): "If it's a long-time league with buddies, I’m tricking them to the best of my ability."

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Key Takeaways:

• Top 20 Player Rankings: A balanced mix of running backs and wide receivers with detailed analysis on each player’s fantasy prospects.
• Strategy Adjustments: Insights on adapting drafting strategies for different league formats, emphasizing flexibility and tier-based selection.
• Community Engagement: Encouragement for listener participation through votes, feedback, and live show attendance.
• Ethical Considerations: Thoughtful discussion on providing advice to league mates, balancing competitiveness with fairness.

This episode is a treasure trove for fantasy football enthusiasts, offering in-depth analysis, strategic advice, and engaging discussions to help listeners navigate their fantasy seasons with confidence and flair.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

What's going on? Foot Clan.

[Jason Moore]

Foot Clan assemble.

[Andy Holloway]

Before we get this show started today, I want to invite you to head over to Foot Clan, Vote.com. it's that time of year where you can nominate the Fantasy Footballers Podcast for the People's Choice in Sports and Recreation Podcast of the Year awards.

[Jason Moore]

Make sure when you go to footclanvote.com you check the box that says you want to be one of the voters, because then that's how you vote.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And help us take home a third consecutive People's Choice. And I promise, if you do that, we won't ever ask you again. Let's get this show on the road.

[Jason Moore]

Hey, this is Al Robinson and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from Draft.com Studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

Ah, welcome. So good to be here.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, it is. Jaeger's in the house, looking handsome and cardboardy.

[Andy Holloway]

You know what's funny about this today? Now, Mike is not here. J. Griz is here, and I kid you not. You know where Mike is?

[Jason Moore]

Where's Mike?

[Andy Holloway]

Big Bear Lake.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, so they've changed spots.

[Andy Holloway]

He is actually, Mike is knee deep in the river water right now catching salmon to catch salmon with his mouth.

[Jason Moore]

Right. And Jay Grizz is here to show us all of his hot grizzly takes.

[Andy Holloway]

He has his bear's mug. He has a. What seems to be a Matt Forte action figure.

[Jason Moore]

Mm.

[Andy Holloway]

So it's good.

[Jason Moore]

No.

[Andy Holloway]

We have a great show for you today, Jason and myself. Brooks is here. How you doing, Brooks?

[Jason Moore]

Terrific.

[Andy Holloway]

He's doing great. We have top 20 players on the show today.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, everybody loves top lists.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, they do. Yes, they do. We have a good quick question. A lot going on these days. A big announcement. We are moving to three shows a week.

[Jason Moore]

Heck yeah. You got a Saturday show coming this week.

[Andy Holloway]

You do?

[Jason Moore]

What about next week?

[Andy Holloway]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

After that? Yeah. Heck yeah, man.

[Andy Holloway]

And then we'll be five, if you don't know, the schedule will be five shows a week from August through December. So that's over 1 million shows.

[Jason Moore]

Wow. Oh, man. I gotta start working out, get. Get my energy level up for a million shows. This.

[Andy Holloway]

Now you're. You're on to keto now. Is this correct?

[Jason Moore]

Yes, it is.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you want this brought up publicly so you're accountable to the Foot Clan?

[Jason Moore]

Sure. Ye.

[Andy Holloway]

Full ketosis.

[Jason Moore]

Mike has lost some weight on keto. I am joining him on the J. Grizz meat lovers diet.

[Andy Holloway]

So from psychosis to ketosis that's right.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I don't lose the psychosis. From psychosis to psychosis and ketosis.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, that'll be Someone help me. Help me. Brooks. I'll be in trouble. Both keto guys. And then I'm just sitting here.

[Jason Moore]

Omaha Steaks just had too good a deal.

[Andy Holloway]

This just means I have nowhere to go for lunch. Alright, here's the quick question of the day for today's episode of the Fantasy Footballers. All right, which this one comes from? J. Gris, which Bears player do you like best at their current adp? Their current average draft position.

[Jason Moore]

Give us the list.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I was going to say here's the average draft position of the bears players in PPR leagues right now. Jordan Howard in a PPR league is 303. Tariq Cohen 605. Alan Robinson 406. Anthony Miller 1404. So almost undrafted. Taylor Gabriel, undrafted. Trey BURTON. Trey Boo Boo 802. And then Mitch Trubisky is a 14th round pick in that league format. So at their current average draft position, who's the best value on the Bears roster?

[Jason Moore]

There's really. I'll be honest, there's only a couple guys here that I actually like at their draft position. I know a lot of people like Allen Robinson in the fourth. I am.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm sure we have identical opinions here.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm not a big Alan Robinson fan. I would say at their adp, I actually do like Jordan Howard. I'm not super high on Jordan Howard this year as a guaranteed, you know, RB1. Granted that's all he's been his entire career but in the third round he's priced with the risk.

[Andy Holloway]

Third round is great.

[Jason Moore]

It's a really good price. You've got Matt Negy coming in, reveling goal line carries, the offense from old curmudgeony defense. You know.

[Andy Holloway]

So speaking of psychosis, such, such a.

[Jason Moore]

Lousy offensive minded system that's been in place for the Bears and now you know, you've got that Todd Gurley effect. I thought Jordan Howard would skyrocket this year because of what happened to Todd Gurley. Where the old curmudgeony offense left, the new offensive mind came in. Todd Gurley went from mediocre to the number one running back. I thought more of that narrative would happen towards Jordan Howard. But his past catching deficiencies have hedged.

[Andy Holloway]

The presence of Tariq Cohen, an actual viable alternative in the backfield and the lack of kind of big play ability of Jordan Howard. I think those are the reasons why that hype isn't There. I like Trey Burton's ADP at 802. I'm fine with that. My pick would still be Jordan Howard at 303, so I'm with you on that. Jordan Howard being drafted as the 15th running back off the board. Now, this is a PPR format, so a little less attractive, but I still think the goal line carries are going to be there for him. And if you read anything into the change over at offense, yeah, I think he could be a value.

[Jason Moore]

The reality is when it comes to his rushing ability, he's. He's been a great running back and that's been against stacked boxes and a lousy offense. When you have an offense that opens it up, maybe he gets. I mean, he almost certainly will get fewer carries this season, but he will be more efficient with a creative offense.

[Andy Holloway]

And he's a good player.

[Jason Moore]

Right. That's what I mean.

[Andy Holloway]

He's just a good ball player. If you want to follow the show over on YouTube and tune in to Jay Grizz and company, you can do [e-mail] the fantasy footballers. The Twitter is @the ffballers. The website's the fantasy footballers.com. there are always great new articles being written by our, dare I say crack staff.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, you dare.

[Andy Holloway]

There's a Jared Goff QB1 article, as in, can he repeat as a QB1 Josh Dachshund article just came out. There's an article about rules that you should eliminate from your fantasy league to, you know, do what we always say, have a little more fun. Yeah, enjoy your league.

[Jason Moore]

It's a holistic approach to fantasy footballers.

[Andy Holloway]

And then obviously the ultimate draft Kit is out. It's available. We're going to get into the news here in a minute. We've already made adjustments based on that news that I'm excited to talk about. And you can always leave us a review. Subscribe over at Apple Podcast. Google Podcast is out now.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, absolutely. Download it. I don't think it's native in your iOS yet, but you could. Or in your iOS in your operating system.

[Andy Holloway]

Well done.

[Jason Moore]

But yeah, you can download the Google Podcast app. And speaking of subscribing and giving reviews.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, we do have a bit of an announcement.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think it's a pretty cool announcement.

[Andy Holloway]

It is. Look, we've recorded. What show is this, Brooks? 562 episodes of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. And when we set out to build this podcast, it was built on three foundational principles. We wanted to be accurate, which I would say we have been and will continue to be. We have entertaining. We want to entertain you. We don't want to drone on. We want you to enjoy the show. But we've always tried to take those entertaining moments and rein them in, not let them dominate the show.

[Jason Moore]

No, this is a fantasy football win your league championship podcast.

[Andy Holloway]

However, we are ridiculous human beings. And throughout the week, we have various debates at lunchtime or throughout the day. And so we flip the microphone on for those.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Once an hour.

[Andy Holloway]

Once an hour, huh?

[Jason Moore]

We're doing it all the time.

[Andy Holloway]

Once a week for one hour. We are releasing a new podcast, the Spitballers Podcast.

[Jason Moore]

You can go to spitballerspod.com or Twitter.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I would just pull open your Apple podcast app.

[Jason Moore]

That's the better way.

[Andy Holloway]

I would type Spitballers in and I would subscribe and I would listen. Once a week, we debate ridiculous topics. It's a weekly dose of nonsense. It's family friendly, so you can listen in the car with your kids if you want. One extra hour of content. Just entertainment that we are vastly unprepared for. I promise you.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, we have no idea what we're doing.

[Andy Holloway]

We flip the mics on, we talk for an hour, and we turn them off and do it again the next week.

[Jason Moore]

Every. Every Monday, new episode hits. So, you know, we don't have a footballers episode on Mondays yet. Now you got something to listen to start your week off right.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Spitballers podcast news and notes from around the league.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Jameis Winston officially suspended for three games by the NFL. He will not appeal. And he came out and said, look, I need to be better.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I appreciated his response.

[Andy Holloway]

I appreciate not appealing right along with that.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's not appealing. He recognized that he was in the wrong, that he needs to do better. He claimed that he has got alcohol out of his life, which was obviously a big factor. Those are what you want to see your franchise quarterback do, and it's what he needs to do. Considering that the NFL followed up and said, look, a future violation of the personal conduct policy, you might get banned, and that is not where you want your franchise quarterback to be. So I expect that this, obviously, this will stay three games as he's not appealing, gives us a little bit of clarity. For the season, they were in trouble.

[Andy Holloway]

And now they have an excuse for it because they were starting the season against New Orleans, in New Orleans, and then back to back games with Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. This was likely an 03 team. Now it's nearly certainly an 03 team. To me, I don't. I don't Care if it's Ryan Fitzpatrick. It's Magic Griffin who's getting publicity now. Which is what you want, right? You want a no name quarterback to get publicity.

[Jason Moore]

He better be from Gryffindor if he wants to pull out victories.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, Magic required. Look, this team, I said it before, we knew for certain that Winston was going to be suspended. It could unravel quickly. Carolina is good, New Orleans is good. Atlanta is going to compete. That's six games in your division. And I just think that there's trouble on the horizon. I'm adjusting my hope for Ronald Jones just on the basis that I'm worried that the wheels are going to fall off. Dirt Cutter is going to be out the door and we're going to be talking about does Tampa Bay invest in a quarterback?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. No, they're not going to. The way that Winston has handled this, he's. I actually think Winston is going to be a waiver wire wonder. I really, really like Jameis Winston this season as a whole. Once he's back, obviously his end of season rankings won't be that good because he's going to miss three games, guaranteed. That's if he plays every, every game, you know, if he's healthy and so he'll be on the waivers. But when you pick him up after a slow start for Tampa Bay, I mean, you saw last season there, there was a slow start and he got cooking. He's fine for fantasy. We've said that he's not a. I don't think he's a great NFL quarterback, but he's going to win some games off the waiver wire. It's yet another great reason to stream the position late. You know, he's going to be there in week, you know, going into Week 4.

[Andy Holloway]

The Colts running back Robert Turbin, or as he calls himself, Turbo, okay. Has been suspended for four games because of a performance enhancing drug violation. If you read his write up, which he refers to himself as Turbo, he apologized to the city, to the fans, to the organization. This makes it harder for me to vehemently dislike Matt.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, yes, come to me.

[Andy Holloway]

However, this is an opportunity to me for Jordan Wilkins, absolutely. To step up into a first and second down type of role. He'll split time, I think. I think Mack is obviously somebody that benefits from the suspension. When I was looking at our projections for this backfield, I actually had Turban with the most carries before the season. What's funny is this suspension completely changed the equation for Turbine on the entire year because I think what happens now is you have Hines and Mack and Wilkins with the opportunity to establish themselves. For all I know, Turban will get 90 carries or 50 carries on the year. Yeah, I mean, so it wipes his value out.

[Jason Moore]

Turbin is going to have to fight his way back into relevance and there are at least three running backs that will get the shot ahead of him. So, yeah, Turban is now irrelevant. And maybe maybe four running backs. If this pushes Kristen, Michael.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I know.

[Jason Moore]

Back into the.

[Andy Holloway]

I know. Or do they. Do they go out and they look at a guy like DeMarco Murray certainly could.

[Jason Moore]

But I am on record. I want it said. I do actually like Marlon Mack. I think he is better than what we saw last year. And if their offensive line is improved and Andrew Luck is back, I think Marlon Mack will be a voucher. He's going.

[Andy Holloway]

Did you say Paul Perkins?

[Jason Moore]

Maybe. Maybe I did, but I don't believe it is the case because Paul Perkins, I mean, I get the parallels, right. Paul Perkins was a guy that you didn't see Jackson, you didn't see the talent, but the opportunity was unbelievable.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, Perkins, you saw him flash in the passing game last year and then that's why people were hyped up for him in New York.

[Jason Moore]

But I think Marlon Mack is more talented than Paul Perkins.

[Andy Holloway]

I know we'll probably debate that until.

[Jason Moore]

Till we find out.

[Andy Holloway]

Till we find out for certain. Any other news you guys want to get into, Brooks? No. Anything going on? Nah. Okay.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's get into the top 20 players.

[Andy Holloway]

20 players. So this is our consensus top 20, is that correct?

[Jason Moore]

That's correct. So we're not just talking top running backs, top wide receivers, top quarterbacks. It's our basically our overall mixed in flex ranking, if you will, which of course will only be running backs and wide receivers because, you know, for someone else to crack the top 20, that would be Gronk alone with that ability. And this is consensus. This isn't mine, this isn't Andy's, this isn't Mike's, but it does include all three. And we'll kind of where we deviate from one another will highlight that for you.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, number 20, we'll count them down. Devonta Freeman comes in at number 20. Right now his average draft position is about 18. So we're a couple behind on his ADP. Here's an interesting tidbit on Devonta Freeman, who obviously had incredible 2015 and 2016 seasons where he was the number one and number six running back under Steve Sarkeesian last year. His Targets dropped from 65 to 47. His red zone carries dropped from 27 to 19. Not a great, not a great indication of, I guess, confidence in Devonta Freeman and his ability to be a top 10 running back. Where do you stand on Devonta Freeman?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, look, I like Devonta Freeman this season. I don't think there was anything on tape that showed me he lost a step. He's not old, you know, I think that he's going to be the primary beneficiary of a good offense in the running game. I actually think he right now is a great value. He is the guy that when you look at you're in a draft and you're kind of staring down The Devonta Freeman, LaShawn McCoy decision, you know, a lot of times people are like, okay, I, you know, they're saying that I think LaShawn McCoy has a high probability of being a bust this year. But who do you take instead when he's guaranteed these, this volume? To me, that answer is Devonta Freeman. You know, he dealt with a few injuries last season. When he got back weeks, you know, 12 through 16, once the offense had found out who they are, this was a new coordinator. You had a guy you know, 11, 20 rushing yard pace, plus over 50 receptions, over 500 yards receiving. The pace was good at the end of the season for Freeman.

[Andy Holloway]

Last year was a poop sandwich. If you look at his weekly contributions. He had his first four weeks inside the top. He was a one or two. Then he disappointed through the middle of this season. And then from weeks 14 through 17, he had some pretty solid finishes, including a fourth and fifth finish in the fantasy playoff range, depending on your league. I still take McCoy if it's me, but you know that you and I disagree pretty profoundly about Lashelle McCoy this year, thanks to you and your ranking. He's not even in our top.

[Jason Moore]

Love what you're going to say.

[Andy Holloway]

He's not even in our top 25.

[Jason Moore]

Fantastic.

[Andy Holloway]

So good work. Thank you. You've done a disservice to all shady truthers. Shady truthers, yeah. All right. Number 19, Michael Thomas.

[Jason Moore]

Michael Thomas.

[Andy Holloway]

Michael Thomas. All right. Right now he's the 15th overall according to average draft position. So we actually have him as a consensus, down a little bit from the consensus, about the same range. Most receptions ever for the first two seasons of a career. 196 receptions. All he's done is gone out and finished seventh and sixth in fantasy in his two seasons and been one of the more consistent fantasy wide receivers available. Even if his slow start last year kind of dissuaded you from thinking he was a dominant force.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, the consistency is there for him. And the reality is this, his rookie year, he had nine touchdowns. This is a guy with unbelievable hands. And we saw a major change for the Saints last season. They threw the ball less, they ran the ball more, you know, around the goal. And they, they were, they were not in these crazy shootouts where they've got to come from behind. So the passing touchdowns were down for Drew Brees, but I think they were down further than we're going to see this year. I'm not a huge Breeze believer this season.

[Andy Holloway]

No, you don't believe it. Like, Mike believes that Brees is going to fully rubber band back to the days of glory.

[Jason Moore]

Right. And I 100% do not.

[Andy Holloway]

Which I actually don't believe either. I do think that he was disproportionately. The pendulum had swung into kind of an odd area last year where the running backs were so good and just the way that the game came by way of scoring for the Saints, I think that will rebound. But look, his passing attempts overall were way down. That's why I'm kind of on your side on that. But yeah, Thomas is. Look, last year with the passing attempts going down as far as they went with Breeze, he had what, 3, 5, 7, 10, 11, top 24 weeks in 16 weeks. And then he didn't even kill you in those other weeks. 25, 32. I mean, what more do you want?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, you could lay it out like this. You have a guy, I don't know if you've seen the pictures, but very Josh Gordon esque. Michael Thomas is ripped. He is jacked coming into this season. He's six'three you know, 215 pounds. So you've got a big bodied, super athletic guy who also happens to run some of the best routes out there, who also happens to have some of the best hands out there, who also happens to have a first ballot hall of Fame quarterback throwing him the ball as a primary target. Your floor is high. And if he gets the touchdowns, which that's, you know, we don't.

[Andy Holloway]

But those are hard to predict.

[Jason Moore]

Right? Those are hard to predict. So I actually like Michael Thompson. I'm surprised that we are lower on him than the consensus average draft position. I'd have no problem taking him at that spot.

[Andy Holloway]

Doesn't seem like it's related to our, you know, dislike. Dislike. It's just other players I think that we like a lot.

[Jason Moore]

Correct.

[Andy Holloway]

So we don't want to remind you right now as we get into number 18, who's Keenan Allen, by the way, want to remind you about the Ultimate Draft kit, the number one tool to prepare yourself to dominate your 2018 fantasy football draft. This has been our baby for the last three years. We're very proud of it. We're very proud of the amount of work that goes into it. 100 plus player profile videos. Price has always stayed the same but we keep adding new features each and every year. So the value increases and you're going to get all of the full projections. You're going to get all of our breakouts and busts and sleepers and values. You're going to get Matt Harmon's reception perception. You're going to get tools. We just added actually on Friday I added a bunch of tutorial videos so that if you're confused about how to use tiers to draft, if you're confused about how to use the top 200 or how to use risk ratings, all of those details are in there so you don't have to feel like, oh my goodness, I have all this information, I don't know what to do with it. Yeah, we want to equip you so that you're ready to go for that draft and this is the way you do it. So check it out atultimatedraftkit.com the opportunity to get it now here in July as we head into draft season and be prepared.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I would just add to that that as a special Easter egg. If you are considering using the top 200 in the ultimate Draft Kit, definitely watch that tutorial. I highly recommend that tutorial to help you learn how to use that as the draft tool of some choice. Also, hey, Pristine Auction. Big, huge shout out to them. They are the best place to get cool things like whether it's a gift, whether it's something for yourself. If you want something that is like amazing, a room set or a room changer, go look at what they have on their auction. It's all 100% authentic signatures on crazy memorabilia. It doesn't matter if you want Joe Montana, Saquon Barkley, Hannah Montana. I mean you just go whatever you want. But look at some of the stuff that went yesterday. We love. We always pull these up fresh for every time we talk about them because every day it's different. A Stefan Diggs signed Color Rush Jersey, which is hot. 60 bucks sold on auction yesterday. Adam Thielen, Color Rush if you're we're only talking to vikings fans here, $62 yesterday. I mean, this stuff is crazy. A Titans mini helmet signed by Corey Davis. $43 hundreds every day. Check it out. It's free to register. It's free. It doesn't cost you unless you win. So go make a bid. Make sure when you sign up for your completely free account that you let them know that the fantasy footballers told you to go.

[Andy Holloway]

Sent you, Sent you, sent you. All right, Kenan Allen comes in at 18 on the top 20 consensus. 18 on our list, 16 on the average draft position. Look, last year was a banner year for Keenan Allen, especially over the second half. Here's his finishes from week 11 on 2, 4, 4, 21, 40, 30 and 1 in week 17. Last year we saw the report with Philip Rivers. Once again. Matthew Berry just came out with his what 100 facts article. He does that every year. It's a great article, but it highlights so many of the things about Philip Rivers that we love his consistency over the last several years and he simply needs the weapons to get the job done. He has one in Kenan Allen, much like Michael Thomas. You're talking about hall of Fame caliber quarterback, number one option, great hands, great competitive nature. That's what I love about Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas. They are out there fighting tooth and nail on every single play. To believe in Keenan Allen is to believe that he will stay healthy. But we saw a good year from him last year and then it's to believe that this offense is going to continue to be able to funnel through Philip Rivers.

[Jason Moore]

Here's what we haven't seen. We haven't seen Keenan Allen play football and be bad, right?

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe, maybe his not play football and be bad.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, exactly.

[Andy Holloway]

Much like myself.

[Jason Moore]

If he's on the field, he's going to be great. And I believe he's on the field. He played a full set last year. There are so many examples in history of injury prone players getting that label early in their career who then become Ironman. Frank Gore is an Ironman. He doesn't miss, he doesn't miss a practice. He plays every game every year. In the beginning of his career he was injured, you know, and people are saying, well, he'd be good if he could stay on the field.

[Andy Holloway]

Forte was like that too.

[Jason Moore]

Matt Forte was. And wide receivers too. I mean Demarius Thomas, Julio Jones, always so injury prone, can't stay on the field. Keenan Allen has that moniker and it's about to go away. I mean, I believe after this season you're not going to get any kind of discount on Keenan and You're barely getting it now. But I love Keenan Allen.

[Andy Holloway]

Right now, he's the 16th overall player, the wide receiver, six off the board.

[Jason Moore]

What is crazy to me is that of the three of us. Sorry, Jam. I'm including Mike here instead of Jay Grizz.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's fair.

[Jason Moore]

You know who has him the lowest? It's Mike, who has spent years being the Keenan Allen truther, and now he has every opportunity.

[Andy Holloway]

So you're saying he hates him?

[Jason Moore]

I'm saying, Mike, why do you hate Keenan Allen?

[Andy Holloway]

Okay. He clearly doesn't want to defend himself. Yeah, otherwise he would have submitted a voicemail answer.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but he doesn't. He hates Keenan. Is there any downside to Keenan? I mean.

[Andy Holloway]

No, no, there's not. There's not a downside to Keenan. He's. He's the primary target. Obviously, losing Hunter Henry, maybe teams focus on him even more. But Henry really hadn't had his breakout yet. And. And there are other weapons. Mike Williams should offer up some, you know, presence on the other side. You have deep threats in Travis Benjamin and in Tyrell Williams. So, no, Allen is. Is bona fide solid. The only argument that people can make against him is the possibility that he gets hurt. That's it.

[Jason Moore]

And you can make that argument against.

[Andy Holloway]

Any player, including Christian McCaffrey who comes in.

[Jason Moore]

McCaffrey could get heart.

[Andy Holloway]

Number 17. That was not the voice of public opinion.

[Jason Moore]

No, that was.

[Andy Holloway]

That was Sam Bradford from last year. Yeah, that was the. I don't want to learn your playbook.

[Jason Moore]

That's right.

[Andy Holloway]

Christian, you recognize McCaffrey? He's 17 ADP overall. 17. On our list of the top 20 led all running backs with 113 targets in 2017. That was 22.6% of the team's targets. Question number one for you, Jason, as he finished the 11th best running back last year in PPR leagues. Question for you. Do you believe that the return of Greg Olson and the selection of DJ Moore will impact that target share percentage? Do you think that Christian McCaffrey will come back? You think after one year, we'll be looking at 22.6% of the team's targets?

[Jason Moore]

No, I don't think so. He was clearly a beneficiary of a lack of other legitimate targets. Now, that is not to say that I. That I think he's going to go down to 70 targets. He's going to be around that 100 target number. But 22% of the targets for a team coming from a running back is not, you know, that's. That's not the norm. You know, that's reserved for wide receivers. Greg Olson has always been his number one target. Didn't have him for half the year. There are some, like, I'm all in on Christian McCaffrey, but we need to pump the brakes a little bit and just recognize that there are some red flags. Okay? Christian McCaffrey, you know, he was, he was not the most efficient runner last season. But in addition to that, you know, there was a lot of hype when, when Jonathan Stewart was gone, but, you know, and that shot him up the rankings. But then they signed CJ Anderson and it did nothing to dissuade the average draft position of McCaffrey. And C.J. anderson is, you know, every bit. He's a far better player today than Jonathan Stewart was last year, in my opinion. And you have a different offensive coordinator and like you said, D.J. moore, Greg Olson, there's a lot of. I feel like Christian McCaffrey right now is being drafted where he, he's okay to be drafted there, but the risk is, is higher than it seems.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't feel very concerned about him just because he is that kind of jack of all trades type of player. Last year, Carolina, for perspective, was the 12th best team in the NFL by way of points per game, 19th in yards. I think if you put those weapons back on the team, you're seeing them more often in the red zone, more opportunities to score. Look, every time that Cam Newton takes a snap in the red zone, you have the threat of handing that ball off to McCaffrey, of screen passes to McCaffrey. You have funches DJ Moore, and then obviously Newton can run. I think that, look, I'm a big Carolina fan this year. I've already talked about Cam Newton before. It's very likely he's going to repeat as a my guy candidate for me because I think he's the perfect combination of that draft value and top end talent. And McCaffrey is going to be the primary weapon. You can't bring DJ Moore into making the primary weapon right out of the gate. So I, I have more confidence. I, I don't think he's as risky as you think he is, but obviously we all have him very high at 17. Now 16. Hard to say there's not more risk in a guy that hasn't done it yet. But Jerick McKinnon, running back for the San Francisco 49ers, comes in at 16. His average draft position right now is 21. When you look at drafts taking place. So we have him quite A bit higher, five spots higher than the consensus. This is all about prognostication. I mean, we are moving into a brand new offense for Jerick McKinnon under Kyle Sanahan and we are basically saying, look, they spent the money and you know, we have confidence in Kyle Shanahan to make McKinnon valuable enough to be drafted 16 overall.

[Jason Moore]

Well, and in addition to those things, it's also about what they didn't do. They had ample opportunity to draft another running back to bring in another free agent running back. They are putting their confidence in Jerick McKinnon and you know, look, Jerick McKinnon hasn't done it before, but you've seen spurts of him doing it. He finished, you know, the running back 22 last year when he wasn't. I mean he clearly at the beginning of the season it was the Dalvin Cook show. When he was given the opportunity, he actually succeeded with it, which was a surprise to me. I've never been a huge McKinnon truther, but you can't argue his athleticism. I mean He's a 90 plus percentile athlete. He's a freak. And when Kyle Shanahan goes out and picks a guy who is really good at pass catching, here's the one thing you do know with him is that he's game flow, you know, safe. If they're up, he's going to be the guy that they're using. If they're down, he's going to be the guy they're using. You're hoping that you're getting a Devonta Freeman, you know, from the Falcons, that type of well rounded type of player. Obviously very different body style between those two guys. But I think with the pass catching, with the athleticism, the only risk here is injury. And we talked about it with Keenan Allen. I mean I can you see him staying healthy and just flat disappointing. Just being a, you know, think about it.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I don't think so. I think Isaiah Crowell last year, right? No, it's possible. I mean, but last year what we saw was almost a leveling up of Jerick McKinnon. He has always been that spark score guy. If you look at his elusive rating, which is that I think pff came up with that. Right. It's missed tackles forced by a running back trying to distill those numbers down. Pre2017, his elusive rating was 39.6. Last year it was 51. So you saw a more elusive Jerick McKinnon. I think that's what Kyle Shanahan Saw, I think that's why you had a four year, $30 million contract going his way. And so they are putting all of their eggs in that basket. So for me, if Kyle Shanahan, an offensive mind, puts all the eggs in the basket of Jerick McKinnon, I'm willing to put a lot of mine in there.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean, Carlos Hyde was the running back nine last year for the. For the 49.

[Andy Holloway]

I lied to you, by the way. Do you know who number 15 is on our list?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, no.

[Andy Holloway]

Lashan McCoy. Come on, you thought you knocked him out of the top 25.

[Jason Moore]

One can dream.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, no. The reality is McCoy, we have him at 15. The consensus out there has him at 22. So despite you, Mike and I have pulled Shady up into the rankings.

[Jason Moore]

Well, the reality is, even with Lashawn McCoy, you know I'm projecting health, right? Like, we don't. There's very rare cases when we stack guys out. Jordan Reed being one, Tyler Ifert being one. Where I go, I'm not going to give them 16 games in my, you know, stating them out for the season with Lashawn McCoy. I did. I gave him 16 games.

[Andy Holloway]

You should. Just because he limps off the field doesn't mean he's not reliable.

[Jason Moore]

I would agree with that. I mean, look, you can't argue with a guy who's done it year in and year out over and over and over.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean, he's 16, 12, 15, 16 in the last five years.

[Jason Moore]

There's no way, if he, if he stays healthy that he doesn't get 315 touches. The reason that I'm so against LaShawn McCoy is obviously not volume. It's all the arguments I've made in the past.

[Andy Holloway]

No, look stuffed 80 times last year and loses offensive lineman. No, I get it.

[Jason Moore]

Lowest yards per carry of his career last season. And I. I just don't see how the Buffalo Bills offense does.

[Andy Holloway]

Can you picture a situation where they.

[Jason Moore]

Score where just at all, like. No, I think.

[Andy Holloway]

I think that's the problem, though. And we talked about this previously. Nobody can visualize what happens there. Kelvin Benjamin's ADP is low. We don't know who the quarterback is. Tyrod's gone. You have injuries, you have missing offensive linemen, and yet this was a playoff team where I have some confidence in the coaching staff to figure it out. I think we don't see the picture now. Right now the glasses are foggy and no matter how much you wipe them, you can't find a touchdown anywhere.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I Mean, I, you have to agree with that. I 100% agree with that.

[Andy Holloway]

But you just assume that the glasses are never getting clear. And I'm thinking they might get clear.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, he'll have some good games. I'm not opposed to drafting him, but if he gets off to a hot start, I'm 100% trading him. I just think that the team is. Yeah, I, you've said this in the.

[Andy Holloway]

Top 21 last year.

[Jason Moore]

This has been one of our tips before is, you know, running backs on good teams. You'd rather have the running back on a good team. Now, it's helpful that he's a good, a great pass catcher.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll remind you, they're a playoff team.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, come on. Well, they're not one of the only.

[Andy Holloway]

Playoff teams with a negative point difference.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, they were a playoff team. They are not a playoff.

[Andy Holloway]

What do you need to put on the hay Bra? I mean, if he's 15.

[Jason Moore]

No, I would never hold enough. Yeah, I would never take him at 15 here.

[Andy Holloway]

14. Kareem Hunt on our top 20 countdown average, opposition's 10 overall were a little lower on Kareem Hunt. He had the highest percentage of running back attempts for any team in football last year with 86%. That is the alarm bell. Regardless of how good you are. That is the alarm bell of regression.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, for sure. There's a, there's a lot of flags here. You and I, Andy, have them basically, as the last RB one. I've got him 12. You've got him 13. Mike is pushing him up here. Mike's got him still at number six. And I will say this, in Mike's defense, when you watch the tape, last year, Kareem Hunt was incredibly hard to take down. He bounced off that first tackle. He had balance, he had vision. He can catch the ball. I don't have any doubts. No doubts, no hesitation, no reservation on the talent of Kareem Hunt. You add him to the fact that he's an Andy Reid led team who usually has a very productive running back for fantasy and there's no reason to think, okay, maybe he regresses a little bit, but that he's going to be bad. Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Last season, I don't think he's going to be bad.

[Jason Moore]

No. And the argument is there's no way he has the snap percentage, the touch percentage of running back totals this season. That wasn't what the Chiefs were planning to do. They were planning on having. I mean, I was ready before the season, right before the injury to say, look, Spencer Ware is a huge value in this draft. And then as soon as he went down, I pumped Kareem Hum like crazy. But now they went out, they've got Spencer Ware hopefully coming back. They signed Damian Williams, they signed Kerwin Williams. This is a team that's showing with their money that what happened last year, while it worked out is not what they are trying to replicate.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, not. Not to the 86% tile. And I will adjust my Kareem Hunt based on the health of Spencer Ware. In fantasy, you don't need to make a declaration on July 2 of exactly what Kareem Hunt's going to be. You can wait and see. I mean, that's what you have to do right now. I have to imagine that percentage comes down right now. I think that the big plays probably come down a little bit. And you got Pat Mahomes back there with some uncertainty. That doesn't mean he's not great. It just means he might not. I don't think he's worthy of being the 10th overall pick.

[Jason Moore]

Here's a question for you, Andy.

[Andy Holloway]

Ooh, I like questions.

[Jason Moore]

Does Kansas City score more or less points this coming season as an offense? More touchdowns or less touchdowns? We'll say that way. Probably the defense is going to be a little worse.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I think probably. And last year they were sixth overall.

[Jason Moore]

So do I. I mean, last year you had a career year from Alex Smith, a veteran quarterback knowing the system, playing out of this world.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I just don't see where Kansas City is at where they were last year offensively with a new, for all intents purposes, rookie. Even if Pat Mahomes. Great. I feel like the offense will take a step back.

[Andy Holloway]

San Diego or San Diego? Los Angeles. The Chargers are better. Denver's gonna be better.

[Jason Moore]

Shout out to San Diego. I just got back.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you had a little trip?

[Jason Moore]

I had a little trip. It was good.

[Andy Holloway]

Got yourself toasted?

[Jason Moore]

Got my sunburn on. You know, those things where. You know on paper.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Like, I know that when the sun is blocked by clouds, you could still get a sunburn. I've heard that before. But when you're out there and it's cool and the sun's not out, you just don't put on the sun block. And then you. And then later you go, yeah, I knew we had the sunblock with us. My bad.

[Andy Holloway]

Of all the things I've ever heard from, that has to be. The biggest mistake that happens by the most amount of people is the sunburn. Everybody I know, they like.

[Jason Moore]

We all know the sun can burn Us.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. But we just.

[Jason Moore]

And we've all had sunburns.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So, you know. But put the two together.

[Andy Holloway]

Number 13, Leonard Fernet. Right now he's the 12th overall by ADP. We have him at 13. One of only six running backs with over 300 touches. And it was a look when he played. He was generally a top 15 guy. He missed a couple games week seven, week nine, had the bye week in between. So you didn't have. And then when he came back, barely played. 42nd ranked running back in week 10. So you had a. You know, we talk about Cream Hunt's dead middle of the season. We ignore a little bit of Fournettes because he fully missed those games and we don't really hold it against him.

[Jason Moore]

You didn't plug him into the lineup and get, you know.

[Andy Holloway]

No, but reliability is something you do have to hold against them a little bit. The Jags invested in Andrew Norwell, one of the steals of the off season. Offensive guard, one of the best in the league, leaving Carolina. So Fournette, I mean, I think we all think he's solid and I think we all have the opinion of. I don't know, he's basically a 300 touch guy on a better team than Shady is.

[Jason Moore]

I love Leonard Fournette. The worry that I've shared before is.

[Andy Holloway]

Have you told him?

[Jason Moore]

I haven't. Hold on, let me make a note.

[Andy Holloway]

Call.

[Jason Moore]

Call Leonard. Oh, Mr. Fournette. Leonard, if I may. Lenny, Lenny, I really, really, really like you in 2018. Much has been said about your soft tissue issues, your ankles, your whatever. But you're a beast. Your team is great. Your offensive line is better, your main backup last year.

[Andy Holloway]

I like hearing this from you. I feel like it was a slow. It is acceptance of Leonard Fournette's value.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, certainly. I'm not. I have not been, you know, the one leading the way on Fournette. But when I look at, you know, this, what we're doing here is all about probability. We're just trying to play the odds, and odds are always in the favor of volume. He's going to get the bulk of the production from the Jaguars, who appear to be a good team. They have a good schedule again this season.

[Andy Holloway]

I got a snake, man.

[Jason Moore]

Blake Bortles is opening things up. I mean, we're always saying what wide receivers are going to be. Could it be Moncrief? Is Keelan Cole going to be involved? Is it going to be Marquis Lee? Is it going to be D. Westbrook?

[Andy Holloway]

No, it's going to be Lenny, it's.

[Jason Moore]

Going to be Leonard Fournette. So, you know, I, you know, in the. In the first few rounds, sure. I know in our live event, we even talked about him being a higher probability of a bus, but that was due to injury.

[Andy Holloway]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

If he plays, you're never going to be unhappy with him in your lineup.

[Andy Holloway]

You almost sound like you're tearing up there for a second. He just means so much to you.

[Jason Moore]

Just means so much.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, let's do our cooking. By the book. Number 12, Dalvin Cook, running back for the Minneapolis, as I call them. Oh, goodness. You remember when they used to be the Phoenix Cardinals?

[Jason Moore]

Nope.

[Andy Holloway]

Do you really not remember that?

[Jason Moore]

Nope.

[Andy Holloway]

They weren't the Arizona Cardinals.

[Jason Moore]

Oh. You know, I thought you were saying, do you remember when the Minnesota Vikings were the Phoenix? Because it never happened.

[Andy Holloway]

They used to be called the Phoenix.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, I remember that.

[Andy Holloway]

Ironically, they played in Tempe. They didn't even play in Phoenix. So they changed. They broadened it out.

[Jason Moore]

Now they're the Arizona Cardinals that play in the University of Phoenix Stadium. That is in Glendale.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, they got it all messed up.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

They're changing them to the Southwest region Cardinals. That's what they're going to adapt it to.

[Jason Moore]

So Dalvin Cook.

[Andy Holloway]

Dalvin Cook, right now we have him at 12. He's 13. And by ADP, he averaged 15 fantasy points per game, was the running back nine when he got hurt. So Dalvin Cook is an investment in a talented running back returning from injury on a great team.

[Jason Moore]

I have been all about Dalvin Cook this off season because I'm a believer. I am truly a believer. But I thought when that started out, I was going to be so much higher than the consensus, and I thought he was going to be left for dead because he missed so much of the season to injury and people wouldn't remember the start he got off to and, you know, much to. Well, I guess not much to my surprise, but to my surprise, that hasn't happened. He's. He's being drafted as the 10th running back on the board.

[Andy Holloway]

He drafted very high.

[Jason Moore]

And at that spot, I don't actually love him. Now, can he finish there? Am I projecting him up near there? Absolutely. But everyone in the. We're talking about the top 20. There's nobody here that we're going through that sucks, who's not good, who doesn't have the opportunity. So when I. And I know, Mike and I differ on this, but when I'm in the early rounds, I usually draft risk adverse because everyone's good. I'm just trying to avoid the landmines, not get the busts. And when I look at Dalvin Cook, there are some issues. Right. One, he's coming back off of injury. I'm not too worried about that because of the length of time he's had to recover.

[Andy Holloway]

He returned to team drills in early June. He's. He's feeling good.

[Jason Moore]

Lost the offensive coordinator that can't find him. Where did he.

[Andy Holloway]

Where is he?

[Jason Moore]

We're going to have to hire a new one. So they did. They hired a new one because they couldn't find their offensive coordinator. You have a healthy Latavius Murray, which you didn't have at the beginning of last year.

[Andy Holloway]

We haven't seen them play together.

[Jason Moore]

So he might actually be taking the goal line work that Dalvin Cook had the opportunity for.

[Andy Holloway]

He may be taking some early down work just to, you know, like one out of every three series just to ease Cook's workload.

[Jason Moore]

Cooks reminds me a lot of Christian McCaffrey where I am totally fine with where they're going, but there are, there are changing pieces and flags that say the potential probability of something changing and going wrong from our good expectations are more.

[Andy Holloway]

He's not safe enough for Brooks to draft is what you're saying. Like. Like we know that Brooks likes to nice and safe. Yeah. He keeps McCaffrey. They're. They're the riskier items on the menu, so to speak.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And they could definitely reward. But here's the thing with Cook.

[Andy Holloway]

If Brooks would be like, I'll take a Dalvin Cook, but I'd like to remove the injury risk and add in a little third down guaranteed value. And yeah, now no Jericho.

[Jason Moore]

He'll still have the touchdown opportunities on the side.

[Andy Holloway]

On the side.

[Jason Moore]

They'll say, can I get those on the side? I don't want to get rid of them because everyone will be angry.

[Andy Holloway]

That's right. The Brooks has learned to save face during our meals. Instead of just ordering the plainest thing possible. He orders something, takes everything off, puts it on the side.

[Jason Moore]

He's still getting it.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Still want to try it?

[Jason Moore]

Right? Still want to try it. But you never touch that stuff.

[Andy Holloway]

No. You and I both, you like looking at it on the side.

[Jason Moore]

Here's the thing with Dalvin Cook. I don't think Dalvin Cook ends the year as like, I think a very low probability of him being a top five running back. I don't think that the total offense is going to need that. I don't think the goal line will Be there. Now, can he be an RB one? Absolutely. I've got him pegged as an RB one. But the point is, at this position, you're kind of drafting him, assuming that everything goes great.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, if he's healthy, he's almost a guaranteed top 15. Right, but he's not with you.

[Jason Moore]

Whereas Leonard Fournette. I could see Leonard Fournette at the end of the season having 18, 19 touchdowns, being the running back one. So you've got risk in both guys. Why not take the guy that has the higher ceiling?

[Andy Holloway]

All right, number 11, Julio Jones. All he's done since 2012 is finish in his healthy years, 11, 8, 2, 6, 4 at the wide receiver position. In other words, that's where he's going to finish again, guys, even last year in a season where Sarkeesian tried to give him the ball in the red zone, he couldn't come down with it. Still finished number four.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And yet the worst number four you've ever had.

[Jason Moore]

For sure. The worst number four you've ever had.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, five of his 16 weeks inside the top 17.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's it. What? It's because when he was in, when he had his big monster games, they were 200 plus yards, multi touchdowns, monstrous games that won you a week. But he was very, very inconsistent. I am 100% willing to throw last year in the garbage when it comes to Julio Jones's consistency, his target volume. He is not like Golden Tate is a guy where year after year after year after year, you have a 90 plus reception guy who every single year is super inconsistent and you can't bank on him in most weeks. That's not who Julio is. Julio had this really up and down season last year and that was with a new coordinator, a new system, sometimes trying to force the issue to him. I think coming into year two of the system, I actually really like Julio Jones this season. I mean, he's a guy you've usually had to draft near the fifth pick in a draft. And I see him drop into the turn it, you know, the 12, 201 turn. I love him there.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, Odell Beckham Jr. At number 10. I remember him pretty good. Six, five, four. That's what 2014, 2015, 2016 looked like from a fantasy finish perspective for Odell Beckham Jr. We have him at 10, he's the 11th overall right now by average draft position and he has at least 90 receptions and 1300 yards and 10 touchdowns in each of his first three seasons, not counting the injury destroyed year last year. So yeah, his 16, he's pretty good.

[Jason Moore]

He's very good. You know, I mean, Even his first two years, both years he didn't play 16 games. His 16 game pace as a wide receiver is 107 receptions for over 1500 yards and 13 touchdowns. There's a reason, despite the injury, he's ahead of Julio Jones in our rankings. You can't sleep on Odell Beckham. This is going to be one of the cheapest prices you get on Odell Beckham because, I mean, if he played healthy last year, there's no reason to.

[Andy Holloway]

Believe he's going to be hurt or get hurt again. He had three full healthy seasons. This happens.

[Jason Moore]

I still have Odell beckham ahead of DeAndre Hopkins this season. My worry and the worry that you can have an Odell Beckham is Eli Manning. Eli Manning has trended in the wrong direction the last several years. And if the trend continues and Eli is done, then obviously that's going to be a very big hardship for Odell Beckham. But it's not like he hasn't had the same Eli Manning we've seen over those seasons and produce those numbers we talked about. So Odell Beckham, and to be honest, I think that the overall offense is going to be better and I think that that helps. People are worried, oh, Saquon's going to take touches away. Now you've got, you know, Evan Ingram to take touches away, targets away. Odell Beckham's getting his period.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Hey, let's hit the pause button. Let's get into the mailbag. We'll count these down on the Thursday show and finish them out. You want to answer some questions?

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Andy Holloway]

Who's going to take this one? How about the people of Minneapolis?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, snap. Mailbag. That is awesome.

[Andy Holloway]

Dallas.

[Jason Moore]

Dallas. Two weeks.

[Andy Holloway]

You got to bring it, Dallas.

[Jason Moore]

Go to ballerslive.com. get your tickets. Now. You can get a combo ticket as well for the nffc. If you're going to be partaking in that.

[Andy Holloway]

Dallas is a week from Friday.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, sir.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, that's coming up. That's very soon. All right, let's jump into the mailbag. If you have a question, go to the website, the Fancy Footballers.com. click the submit a question button or if you prefer, pick up your phone, dial our voicemail hotline, 302464, TFFB. We're going to kick it off with a voicemail. Hey, ballers.

[Jason Moore]

So I recently joined a Footpan League dynasty Startup Super Flex league.

[Andy Holloway]

So my question is, how does your.

[Jason Moore]

Drafting strategy Change for Super Flex and 24 rec leagues.

[Andy Holloway]

And when are you looking at drafting your first quarterback? Thanks. You guys are awesome. Yeah, we talk so much about late round quarterbacks that this question comes up a lot. People want to know how do you adjust your strategy when you have two quarterbacks? I mean because any super flex league you're starting two quarterbacks 99% of the time and it affects the strategy completely.

[Jason Moore]

It affects the strategy in one way and that is what you need at the end of your draft. But it does not affect the strategy as far as draft strategy because it's still tier based. You're still drafting tier base. And like you said Andy, if you've got the udk, you've got our tiered rankings. We've got a tutorial now for how to utilize that. But the change that happens is usually I only want one quarterback period. And I'm planning to stream them in a two quarterback league. I want three quarterbacks. So I've got to plan ahead and make sure that by the end of the draft you know, you have to.

[Andy Holloway]

Watch when and the reason you want that is because they're all going to get drafted. They're all super flex league. You need to be able to have the flexibility to stream between your three pack as opposed to using the waiver wire to stream because they're all going to be drafted and I normally try to get one good one in the top three rounds.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you can do that. You can do the try to get one of those great guys. I mean if Aaron Rodgers dropped to the end of the first in a multi quarterback, you know, super flex type league, that's okay to take him there. I am still probably waiting several rounds. The reason I want three specifically is because I'm drafting them later. So like Jameis Winston would be a great third drafted player in a normal super flex league because he's going to go late since he's missing those first three weeks. You can get him at a great value and you could compare, you know, pair him with a Kirk Cousins and a whoever Matthew Stafford. Yeah, someone really late that I like as well and this will gross you out. But Ryan Tannehill is, I mean they're all going to get drafted and this is a guy you can get super late. He's basically the last one drafted and I think his value or Eli Manning as well, those are guys you can get very, very late now in a dynasty it's different. Jameis won't go as late because he's, he's still young. But yeah, I mean, you want, you want. I would try to get three if you can, but it's still tier based. Don't overemphasize the quarterback. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

And if you do select one in the top three or four rounds, which I always recommend in these league formats, that's when you can kind of adapt and treat our late round strategy. At that point, once you have one on your roster, you can kind of treat it the same way where you're trying to get best value on those second or third guys. All right. Jammin in Clovis, California says, I know I'm in a league as the guy that pays attention to football year, and everyone comes to me during the draft to ask about strategy and players to pick. Is it fair for me to feed them bad advice?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man.

[Andy Holloway]

So he's known in his league as the guy that pays attention all year and they ask for advice. So is it fair to feed them bad advice? Here's the thing. Wow. This is the wrong person to be talking about this too, because I know Jason will win at all costs. But is it fun to beat somebody you tell to draft the wrong player?

[Jason Moore]

So fun.

[Andy Holloway]

Brooks, so what do you think?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, where are you at, Brooks?

[Andy Holloway]

I think say whatever you want. Wow.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, all right. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, I mean, it is on them.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Yeah, it's gonna be. Here's. Here's where I would genuinely, to give a real answer, I would differentiate it between whether this is a long time league full of people that play and they've, you know, been in it for a while, but they don't pay enough attention or, you know, they just stink at it versus a newer league with people trying to start out, to figure it out. Because if this is, you don't win.

[Andy Holloway]

It at the draft anyway.

[Jason Moore]

Right? That's true. If this is a newer league with people getting into fantasy football for the first time, I want to help them, I want to support them, I want them to enjoy fantasy football and succeed and have. So I'll give them good advice. You know, look, if, if you print out an extra ultimate draft kit cheat sheet, we see people do that and they give them to their friends and say, hey, here you go, man. This is the best info in all the land. In all the land. Draft the best you can. But that's a. Especially if you're the commissioner of the league. Oh, certainly they didn't specify that.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a good point.

[Jason Moore]

But if this is a league you've been in for three, four years and most of these guys are Buds. I'm tricking them to the best of my darn ability. And I will make sure that I come out on top and that I will step on them, because that is also fun.

[Andy Holloway]

Normally, I will say this. Normally, you can make an argument for anything. There's enough storylines out there to make an argument for everything. So make your argument.

[Jason Moore]

There you go.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Tyler in Missouri wants to know, hey, guys, I keep finding myself reaching for Mark Ingram. If I can withstand a couple victories out of the first four games, will he pay off in the long run?

[Jason Moore]

Well, yes, if you can withstand the victories. I mean, this is a perfect withstanding victories. Quote player I don't like taking Mark Ingram this season because I still feel like he's going a little bit high for the fact that I won't have. I'll have him. What is it, one of the first six weeks? Because I think they've got a buy in there. And so I'm going into week seven having one game of Mark Ingram. Now, if I go into that week and I'm five and two, great. Mark Ingram is going to help me on my title run. But I, you know, you've got to sacrifice something to get there. And if all of a sudden, you know, you're three and five or I guess going into week seven, you would not be three and five, but, you know, if you're under.500 and struggling, you're going to have wished you didn't have them. So I, you know, this is. Know your league. Do you usually dominate? Like, if you usually dominate this league and you're better than them, like the last question, and he's like, oh, these guys think they don't. They don't know their stuff. Then, yeah, maybe grab Mark Ingram, stash him for a little.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not. I'm not reaching for him.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I'm definitely not reaching for him.

[Andy Holloway]

Definitely not reaching.

[Jason Moore]

He's 29 years old, and there is still the world where someone comes in. You know, I don't think Terrence west is going to light the world on fire. Jonathan Williams, but maybe his role isn't quite the same when he gets back. I expect that it will be the same, sure. But there's still the world where that doesn't happen. And then you had to hold on to it.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a free agent, isn't he, after this season. So, yeah, there's a. Work him out of the system. Unless, I mean, they're gonna do what they need to win and to use them. But there is risk. There is Kind of the point. All right, before we close out the show, I don't want to remind you, you heard it in the introduction, but if you can go to footclan, vote.com and nominate us these the 2018 Podcast.

[Jason Moore]

Awards for both the people's choice and the sports categories.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. We are back to back champions of the podcasts or the people's choice and the sports category. And I believe if we three Pete will no longer be eligible.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Which is the goal.

[Andy Holloway]

So that, I mean, just make it happen.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Well, you guys have made it happen the last two years is really power.

[Andy Holloway]

Of the Foot Clan.

[Jason Moore]

You guys are great. And hey, Foot Clan, we want to see you at Dallas. Go to Ballers live. Dallas in Dallas.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, I would go within Dallas.

[Jason Moore]

All right, well, I want to see you in Dallas, Texas. Time is running out, so go to ballerslive.com the shows are a great time. We'll hang out with you after the show. You won't be disappointed.

[Andy Holloway]

Ballerslive.com all right, that is it for today's episode. We'll count them down on Thursday. Make sure you tune in and then draft.comballers is where you can play some sweet best ball.

[Jason Moore]

Awesome. Best ball.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, guys, see you later.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on JoinTheFoot.com and follow us on Twitter @The FF Ballers.