Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast
Episode: Trending or Ending + Combine Hype
Release Date: February 28, 2019

In this engaging episode of The Fantasy Footballers, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deep into the latest NFL Combine activities, analyze trending players in fantasy football, and discuss potential "ending" prospects. Despite Mike Wright's absence due to illness, the dynamic duo ensures a comprehensive and insightful discussion tailored for fantasy football enthusiasts aiming to dominate their leagues.

1. NFL Combine Insights and Analysis

Marching Towards Success: The Combine's Impact on Fantasy Football

The episode kicks off with a detailed discussion on the NFL Combine, highlighting the significance of combine metrics in evaluating player potential. The hosts debate the true value of combine performances, particularly focusing on running backs.

• Andy Holloway ([03:38]) challenges the conventional emphasis on combine metrics, stating, "Combine metrics mean so little for the vast majority of every single offensive skill position player." He argues that while athleticism is beneficial, there's no singular combine score that guarantees NFL success.

• Jason Moore ([05:06]) adds to this by illustrating how unexpected combine performances, such as Dalvin Cook's disappointing results contrasted with Aaron Donald and Saquon Barkley's stellar performances, show that combine results can be misleading. He notes, "Draft certainly didn't meet expectations," referencing players whose combine lows didn't hinder their NFL careers.

Key Takeaways:

• Combine performances should be interpreted with caution, especially for offensive skill positions.
• Running Back Evaluation: Holloway emphasizes the importance of observing receiving drills, using Christian McCaffrey as a benchmark for effortless ball-catching ability. Additionally, he recommends considering the weight-adjusted speed score over the raw 40-yard dash times for a more accurate assessment of a running back’s fantasy potential.

2. Trending or Ending: Player Evaluations

A Comprehensive Breakdown of Key Fantasy Players

The heart of the episode centers around the "Trending or Ending" segment, where the hosts debate whether specific players are on the rise ("Trending") or declining ("Ending") in fantasy value.

a. Aaron Jones: Potential RB1

Debate: Can Aaron Jones be an RB1 in 2019?

• Andy Holloway ([22:10]) leans towards optimism, highlighting Jones' suspension and reduced activity as potential setbacks. He states, "I believe Aaron Jones will have a successful fantasy season in 2019," yet positions him as more of a top 20 running back rather than a clear RB1.

• Jason Moore ([24:04]) concurs, suggesting Jones will likely be an RB2. He underscores the uncertainty surrounding Jones' usage in a potentially competitive Packers backfield, referencing Matt LaFleur's caution regarding RBBC (Running Back by Committee) approaches.

Conclusion: Ending - While Jones shows promise, uncertainties around his role and competition place him slightly below RB1 status.

b. Alshon Jeffery: Wide Receiver Decline

Debate: Is Alshon Jeffery a WR3 now, or can Carson Wentz lift his performance?

• Andy Holloway ([26:38]) argues that Jeffery has been declining, noting his consecutive years outside the top 20 in points per game. He predicts Jeffery might finish around WR25, relying heavily on touchdown receptions.

• Jason Moore ([27:33]) counters by suggesting Jeffery could hover around WR17-18, provided Carson Wentz remains a solid quarterback option. He emphasizes that despite challenges, Jeffery's youth and potential for turnaround prevent him from being a complete fantasy dump.

Conclusion: Ending - Jeffery's declining performance and reliance on touchdowns make him less reliable, though not entirely out of contention.

c. Matt Ryan: Top Five Fantasy Quarterback?

Debate: Is Matt Ryan a top five fantasy quarterback in 2019?

• Andy Holloway ([29:16]) details Ryan's fluctuating rankings over the years, ultimately suggesting that Ryan trends towards QB15 based on historical performance swings.

• Jason Moore ([30:03]) acknowledges Ryan's inconsistency, aligning with Holloway by placing Ryan outside the top five, indicating potential regression and the rise of other quarterbacks like Carson Wentz.

Conclusion: Ending - Matt Ryan's inconsistent performance trends him away from top-tier quarterback rankings.

d. Robert Woods: Top 12 Wide Receiver

Debate: Is Robert Woods a top 12 wide receiver in 2019?

• Andy Holloway ([33:02]) passionately defends Woods, describing him as a "perennially disrespected" player who consistently passes the eye test and thrives within his offense. He acknowledges Woods might not hit top 12 but firmly supports his continued relevance.

• Jason Moore ([34:14]) agrees, highlighting Woods' strong metrics and consistent performance, particularly when adjusting for factors like route running with Cooper Kupp.

Conclusion: Trending - Robert Woods maintains his status as a reliable and potentially top 12 wide receiver, supported by solid performance metrics.

e. Chris Carson: Touches and Durability

Debate: Will Chris Carson see 20+ touches a game?

• Andy Holloway ([36:38]) expresses skepticism about Carson maintaining 20+ touches, estimating around 18 attempts per game due to potential competition and durability concerns.

• Jason Moore ([37:47]) concurs, emphasizing that while Carson may receive significant workload, exceeding 20 carries is unlikely. He notes Carson's track record of injuries and aggressive running style as potential limitations.

Conclusion: Ending - Carson may remain highly utilized but likely won't sustain 20+ touches per game consistently.

f. Derek Henry: Stepping into RB Elite

Debate: Will Derek Henry see 15+ rushing attempts per game in 2019?

• Andy Holloway ([40:00]) strongly supports Henry's upward trajectory, predicting an average of 20 carries per game based on his high usage rate in goal-line situations and improved offensive strategies.

• Jason Moore ([41:44]) echoes this confidence, citing Henry's "rhythm monster" persona and backing him to exceed 15 attempts per game.

Conclusion: Trending - Derek Henry is poised to solidify his position as a top-tier running back with increased usage and consistent performance.

g. Mike Williams: Double-Digit Tight Ends

Debate: Can Mike Williams achieve double-digit touchdowns again?

• Andy Holloway ([42:38]) remains optimistic, affirming Williams' role as a red-zone threat and key offensive player, expecting continued or improved touchdown production.

• Jason Moore ([43:23]) supports this view, highlighting Williams' strong catching metrics and potential for upward movement, despite possible competition from other receivers.

Conclusion: Trending - Mike Williams is expected to maintain or exceed his touchdown numbers, reinforcing his value as a reliable tight end option.

h. Big Ben Roethlisberger: Top Five Quarterback?

Debate: Is Big Ben Roethlisberger a top five quarterback in 2019?

• Andy Holloway ([44:52]) argues against Roethlisberger's top five status, citing his inconsistent fantasy performance primarily driven by Antonio Brown's presence. He predicts a drop in Roethlisberger's rankings post-Brown.

• Jason Moore ([45:57]) concurs, noting the diminishing impact without Brown, thereby reducing Roethlisberger's fantasy value.

Conclusion: Ending - Big Ben Roethlisberger is unlikely to maintain his top five quarterback status without Antonio Brown's influence.

3. Fantasy Strategy and Player Picks

Dynamic Player Acquisition and Strategic Drafting

Throughout the episode, Holloway and Moore share personal anecdotes and strategic insights into player acquisitions, particularly emphasizing the importance of timely and informed drafting. For instance, Holloway recounts a flag football victory where Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" threw a game-winning touchdown to him, underscoring the importance of clutch performances in fantasy evaluations.

Key Insights:

• Late Draft Decisions: The hosts stress the importance of burner picks like John Ross, who, despite underwhelming past performances, holds potential for breakout seasons in favorable team environments.
• Dynasty League Considerations: Discussions around players like Marcel Aitman and Chris Warren highlight the nuanced strategies required for dynasty leagues versus standard formats, emphasizing long-term value over immediate performance.

4. Promotions and Community Engagement

Exclusive Offers and Listener Engagement

Towards the end of the episode, the hosts promote various offers and engage with their listener community:

• Ultimate Draft Kit Bundle: Andy Holloway announces a limited-time offer for the Ultimate Draft Kit, emphasizing its value in dominating drafts and the chance to join the 2019 Listener League. Notable quote: "It's the best way to dominate your draft year in and year out." ([00:00])

• Pristine Auction Deals: The hosts highlight exclusive merchandise deals from PristineAuction.com, including signed jerseys and memorabilia. They encourage listeners to participate in auctions, emphasizing the cost-effectiveness and uniqueness of the offerings.

Social Media and Connectivity:

• Listeners are encouraged to follow the hosts on various platforms, including Twitter handles @theFFBallers, Jason FFL, Mike FFhitman, and Andy Grizz FFL. Subscription options on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other platforms are also promoted to stay updated with ongoing discussions and insights.

5. Final Thoughts and Takeaways

Strategic Positioning for the Upcoming Season

The episode concludes with reinforcing the importance of staying informed and adaptable in the ever-evolving landscape of fantasy football. The hosts urge listeners to leverage the insights provided to make informed decisions, ensuring a competitive edge in their leagues.

Memorable Quote: Andy Holloway encapsulates the episode's ethos with his decisive stance on non-promotional content: "I believe in Eric Ebron. I do. I mean I always have. And I think he's a very easy guy to target, to say late bloomer." ([47:38])

Conclusion:

This episode of The Fantasy Footballers offers a rich tapestry of insights, debates, and strategic advice tailored for fantasy football enthusiasts. From dissecting the true value of NFL Combine metrics to meticulously evaluating the rising and declining stars of the season, Andy Holloway and Jason Moore provide listeners with the analytical prowess needed to excel in their fantasy leagues. Whether you're navigating draft strategies or adjusting your roster in free agency, this episode serves as an invaluable guide to enhancing your fantasy football acumen.