Trending or Ending + Combine Hype

Summary

Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast
Episode: Trending or Ending + Combine Hype
Release Date: February 28, 2019

In this engaging episode of The Fantasy Footballers, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve deep into the latest NFL Combine activities, analyze trending players in fantasy football, and discuss potential "ending" prospects. Despite Mike Wright's absence due to illness, the dynamic duo ensures a comprehensive and insightful discussion tailored for fantasy football enthusiasts aiming to dominate their leagues.

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1. NFL Combine Insights and Analysis

Marching Towards Success: The Combine's Impact on Fantasy Football

The episode kicks off with a detailed discussion on the NFL Combine, highlighting the significance of combine metrics in evaluating player potential. The hosts debate the true value of combine performances, particularly focusing on running backs.

• Andy Holloway ([03:38]) challenges the conventional emphasis on combine metrics, stating, "Combine metrics mean so little for the vast majority of every single offensive skill position player." He argues that while athleticism is beneficial, there's no singular combine score that guarantees NFL success.

• Jason Moore ([05:06]) adds to this by illustrating how unexpected combine performances, such as Dalvin Cook's disappointing results contrasted with Aaron Donald and Saquon Barkley's stellar performances, show that combine results can be misleading. He notes, "Draft certainly didn't meet expectations," referencing players whose combine lows didn't hinder their NFL careers.

Key Takeaways:

• Combine performances should be interpreted with caution, especially for offensive skill positions.
• Running Back Evaluation: Holloway emphasizes the importance of observing receiving drills, using Christian McCaffrey as a benchmark for effortless ball-catching ability. Additionally, he recommends considering the weight-adjusted speed score over the raw 40-yard dash times for a more accurate assessment of a running back’s fantasy potential.

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2. Trending or Ending: Player Evaluations

A Comprehensive Breakdown of Key Fantasy Players

The heart of the episode centers around the "Trending or Ending" segment, where the hosts debate whether specific players are on the rise ("Trending") or declining ("Ending") in fantasy value.

a. Aaron Jones: Potential RB1

Debate: Can Aaron Jones be an RB1 in 2019?

• Andy Holloway ([22:10]) leans towards optimism, highlighting Jones' suspension and reduced activity as potential setbacks. He states, "I believe Aaron Jones will have a successful fantasy season in 2019," yet positions him as more of a top 20 running back rather than a clear RB1.

• Jason Moore ([24:04]) concurs, suggesting Jones will likely be an RB2. He underscores the uncertainty surrounding Jones' usage in a potentially competitive Packers backfield, referencing Matt LaFleur's caution regarding RBBC (Running Back by Committee) approaches.

Conclusion: Ending - While Jones shows promise, uncertainties around his role and competition place him slightly below RB1 status.

b. Alshon Jeffery: Wide Receiver Decline

Debate: Is Alshon Jeffery a WR3 now, or can Carson Wentz lift his performance?

• Andy Holloway ([26:38]) argues that Jeffery has been declining, noting his consecutive years outside the top 20 in points per game. He predicts Jeffery might finish around WR25, relying heavily on touchdown receptions.

• Jason Moore ([27:33]) counters by suggesting Jeffery could hover around WR17-18, provided Carson Wentz remains a solid quarterback option. He emphasizes that despite challenges, Jeffery's youth and potential for turnaround prevent him from being a complete fantasy dump.

Conclusion: Ending - Jeffery's declining performance and reliance on touchdowns make him less reliable, though not entirely out of contention.

c. Matt Ryan: Top Five Fantasy Quarterback?

Debate: Is Matt Ryan a top five fantasy quarterback in 2019?

• Andy Holloway ([29:16]) details Ryan's fluctuating rankings over the years, ultimately suggesting that Ryan trends towards QB15 based on historical performance swings.

• Jason Moore ([30:03]) acknowledges Ryan's inconsistency, aligning with Holloway by placing Ryan outside the top five, indicating potential regression and the rise of other quarterbacks like Carson Wentz.

Conclusion: Ending - Matt Ryan's inconsistent performance trends him away from top-tier quarterback rankings.

d. Robert Woods: Top 12 Wide Receiver

Debate: Is Robert Woods a top 12 wide receiver in 2019?

• Andy Holloway ([33:02]) passionately defends Woods, describing him as a "perennially disrespected" player who consistently passes the eye test and thrives within his offense. He acknowledges Woods might not hit top 12 but firmly supports his continued relevance.

• Jason Moore ([34:14]) agrees, highlighting Woods' strong metrics and consistent performance, particularly when adjusting for factors like route running with Cooper Kupp.

Conclusion: Trending - Robert Woods maintains his status as a reliable and potentially top 12 wide receiver, supported by solid performance metrics.

e. Chris Carson: Touches and Durability

Debate: Will Chris Carson see 20+ touches a game?

• Andy Holloway ([36:38]) expresses skepticism about Carson maintaining 20+ touches, estimating around 18 attempts per game due to potential competition and durability concerns.

• Jason Moore ([37:47]) concurs, emphasizing that while Carson may receive significant workload, exceeding 20 carries is unlikely. He notes Carson's track record of injuries and aggressive running style as potential limitations.

Conclusion: Ending - Carson may remain highly utilized but likely won't sustain 20+ touches per game consistently.

f. Derek Henry: Stepping into RB Elite

Debate: Will Derek Henry see 15+ rushing attempts per game in 2019?

• Andy Holloway ([40:00]) strongly supports Henry's upward trajectory, predicting an average of 20 carries per game based on his high usage rate in goal-line situations and improved offensive strategies.

• Jason Moore ([41:44]) echoes this confidence, citing Henry's "rhythm monster" persona and backing him to exceed 15 attempts per game.

Conclusion: Trending - Derek Henry is poised to solidify his position as a top-tier running back with increased usage and consistent performance.

g. Mike Williams: Double-Digit Tight Ends

Debate: Can Mike Williams achieve double-digit touchdowns again?

• Andy Holloway ([42:38]) remains optimistic, affirming Williams' role as a red-zone threat and key offensive player, expecting continued or improved touchdown production.

• Jason Moore ([43:23]) supports this view, highlighting Williams' strong catching metrics and potential for upward movement, despite possible competition from other receivers.

Conclusion: Trending - Mike Williams is expected to maintain or exceed his touchdown numbers, reinforcing his value as a reliable tight end option.

h. Big Ben Roethlisberger: Top Five Quarterback?

Debate: Is Big Ben Roethlisberger a top five quarterback in 2019?

• Andy Holloway ([44:52]) argues against Roethlisberger's top five status, citing his inconsistent fantasy performance primarily driven by Antonio Brown's presence. He predicts a drop in Roethlisberger's rankings post-Brown.

• Jason Moore ([45:57]) concurs, noting the diminishing impact without Brown, thereby reducing Roethlisberger's fantasy value.

Conclusion: Ending - Big Ben Roethlisberger is unlikely to maintain his top five quarterback status without Antonio Brown's influence.

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3. Fantasy Strategy and Player Picks

Dynamic Player Acquisition and Strategic Drafting

Throughout the episode, Holloway and Moore share personal anecdotes and strategic insights into player acquisitions, particularly emphasizing the importance of timely and informed drafting. For instance, Holloway recounts a flag football victory where Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" threw a game-winning touchdown to him, underscoring the importance of clutch performances in fantasy evaluations.

Key Insights:

• Late Draft Decisions: The hosts stress the importance of burner picks like John Ross, who, despite underwhelming past performances, holds potential for breakout seasons in favorable team environments.
• Dynasty League Considerations: Discussions around players like Marcel Aitman and Chris Warren highlight the nuanced strategies required for dynasty leagues versus standard formats, emphasizing long-term value over immediate performance.

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4. Promotions and Community Engagement

Exclusive Offers and Listener Engagement

Towards the end of the episode, the hosts promote various offers and engage with their listener community:

• Ultimate Draft Kit Bundle: Andy Holloway announces a limited-time offer for the Ultimate Draft Kit, emphasizing its value in dominating drafts and the chance to join the 2019 Listener League. Notable quote: "It's the best way to dominate your draft year in and year out." ([00:00])

• Pristine Auction Deals: The hosts highlight exclusive merchandise deals from PristineAuction.com, including signed jerseys and memorabilia. They encourage listeners to participate in auctions, emphasizing the cost-effectiveness and uniqueness of the offerings.

Social Media and Connectivity:

• Listeners are encouraged to follow the hosts on various platforms, including Twitter handles @theFFBallers, Jason FFL, Mike FFhitman, and Andy Grizz FFL. Subscription options on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other platforms are also promoted to stay updated with ongoing discussions and insights.

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5. Final Thoughts and Takeaways

Strategic Positioning for the Upcoming Season

The episode concludes with reinforcing the importance of staying informed and adaptable in the ever-evolving landscape of fantasy football. The hosts urge listeners to leverage the insights provided to make informed decisions, ensuring a competitive edge in their leagues.

Memorable Quote: Andy Holloway encapsulates the episode's ethos with his decisive stance on non-promotional content: "I believe in Eric Ebron. I do. I mean I always have. And I think he's a very easy guy to target, to say late bloomer." ([47:38])

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Conclusion:

This episode of The Fantasy Footballers offers a rich tapestry of insights, debates, and strategic advice tailored for fantasy football enthusiasts. From dissecting the true value of NFL Combine metrics to meticulously evaluating the rising and declining stars of the season, Andy Holloway and Jason Moore provide listeners with the analytical prowess needed to excel in their fantasy leagues. Whether you're navigating draft strategies or adjusting your roster in free agency, this episode serves as an invaluable guide to enhancing your fantasy football acumen.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, Foot Clan. Big news. There is a very short amount of time left to get in our Ultimate Draft Kit bundle. You know you're going to get the Ultimate Draft Kit. It's the best way to dominate your draft year in and year out. But if you get in right now, not only do you get the best price of the year, but you have a chance to be in our 2019 Listener League. So check it out. Go to Ultimate Draft kit dot com. See all the cool stuff, including a new app for this season. You won't regret it. Do it now. Ultimate Draft Kit.com. welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from pristineoption.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, man down. But don't worry, we got this.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, Mike is at home, I hope, puking his guts out, whimpering. I mean, if he's not puking, he should be here. In fact, I would argue that buckets are portable.

[Jason Moore]

He should be here. You don't want him here.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I don't.

[Jason Moore]

He's very ill. Mike is. Jay Grizz is in the house holding it down. It's a two man show today. Mike get better. I believe he was live tweeting some of his illness yesterday. He was watching movies on the couch. He's got a fever. His wife is sick. At the same time, it's Lord of the Flies at the Wright household. The kids are running the show and he is watching whatever movie comes on the TV because the remote is just a little too far away.

[Andy Holloway]

So don't get better, Mike. You live your best life. Watch that tv.

[Jason Moore]

Today's episode of the Fantasy Footballers is going to be a great one. We have trending or ending on the show today, a bunch of news. And look, today's Thursday, February 28th. The combine getting rolling.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Free agency coming soon.

[Andy Holloway]

Combines going on right now. Some of the interviews are starting. Some of the weigh ins are starting. This weekend. Will be, you know, the big show.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Oh, it's gonna be great. Our quick question has to do with the combine. Have you also listened, Jason, have you listened carefully? There's been a. Oh, there's been more. We're getting to that time of year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

You hear it?

[Andy Holloway]

I hear some hype trains out there.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, you're starting to hear all about. I think there was three or four reports today in a row. Because if you asked Matt LaFleur, head coach of the Green Bay Packers, a question, his full sentence can be three separate hype trains for the various players on his Roster. So this is the time of year. This is why we say listen in. Now we'll try to sift through all of the coach speak separate fiction from reality a little bit. But with the combine coming up, there will be a lot of hype related to the scores. Put up the John Ross esque scores. What do you look for most when you're watching the NFL combine? Because I know we're all looking forward to it. You know, what's your favorite thing to look for?

[Andy Holloway]

So before I talk about what you look for, I just want the Foot Clan to be aware and I might get some pushback on this. Okay. I might have people that are just vehemently wagging their finger at me saying no, you're wrong. But no, you're wrong.

[Jason Moore]

Ooh, the old you're wrong trick.

[Andy Holloway]

Combine metrics mean so little for the vast majority of every single offensive skill position player. There are so few things that actually have any kind of proven statistical impact on. I mean so you know, you watch your 40 time and you see the guys that are fast and you see the guys that are slow and you overreact and you know, when you look at historical data models that, you know, take into account success in the first few years in the NFL and what, what are the best metrics to use? I'm not saying that there is zero correlation with what happens at the combine. Obviously you'd rather have a more athletic guy than a less athletic guy. But if you just look at who's succeeding in the NFL and you look at their combine scores and you go across the board, there, there is no magic combine score that's going to make your guy better. That's what I'm saying.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean if you were going to bring up the different things I pay attention to, sometimes I look to see if I'm going to be surprised by a plethora of negative scores or a player that doesn't meet expectations. I mean, I would have to say it didn't help Ronald Jones last year to not turn in a fast 40 time when that was his main event. But then you had a player like Dalvin Cook a couple years ago, he really collapsed at the combine and from day one looked like a difference making back in the NFL.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, but Ronald Jones, if you remember last year, he didn't turn his best time because he got hurt like mid run. So he, I mean he.

[Jason Moore]

But it influences draft stuff.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean regardless, his did not count. But yeah, I mean if you look at Dalvin Cook and Calvin Ridley, right. Their combine Scores were horrific. They were never going to, I mean.

[Jason Moore]

Draft certainly didn't meet expectations.

[Andy Holloway]

Draft Twitter said they cannot succeed because their combine scores were bad.

[Jason Moore]

But then you have player Aaron Donald, Saquon Barkley, who's solidified their draft stock or translated some of those things.

[Andy Holloway]

There are outliers where like those two players, I think it is a hot.

[Jason Moore]

Take to say that it doesn't matter that much.

[Andy Holloway]

Aaron, Donald and Saquon. Let me, let me clarify. If someone comes out and is pretty much 99th percentile in every single metric like those two guys, they matter.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

It's very rare. So maybe Mike Gasicki, who is last year's rookie tight end of the Dolphins, he was like 99th percentile across the board. Maybe he'll turn up in the NFL over the next few years.

[Jason Moore]

They're looking for him.

[Andy Holloway]

Common for Titans. But here's what I'm looking for at the combine. Two things. One, I love my favorite thing. I think I said this last year and spoiler alert, I'll say it next year. My favorite thing to watch for is the receiving drills for running backs because you can tell a difference. You can eyeball test, tell a difference between the players that are just, I mean you go back and watch Christian McCaffrey and how he catches the ball. It's thoughtless, it's effortless, it's second nature. He's just running, grabs the ball, keeps going. It's, there's no, there's no mental like break. There's no, there's no.

[Jason Moore]

I'm trying. There's no Jordan Howard. I'm trying really hard to catch this ball and then I'll do something.

[Andy Holloway]

I want to see who can catch it in stride and who takes that mental break when they grab the ball. Because everyone's going to catch every ball but they don't catch them the same. So that's what I watch for. But if you do want one metric that has some semblance of correlation correlation to projecting success, it is for running backs. It's not the 40. It's the weight adjusted speed score. So it's, it is the 40. But when you factor that into how much they weigh. So if you got a big boy.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

You got a 225 pound guy who's running a 4, 4 5. That's really good. Don't just look at the 40 time. You got to adjust it for weight.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Tomorrow, March 1st, the workout groups, running backs, offensive linemen, special teams. Saturday you'll see quarterbacks and wideouts Tight ends. It'll be exciting. It'll be fun. Follow us on Twitter @ the FF Ballers. You can follow each of us individually at Jason FFL. Mike is at FFhitman.

[Andy Holloway]

Jay Grizz is J. Grizz FFL.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Mine's at Andy Holloway. And we'll all be. I'm sure we'll have some things to say as the combine progresses. So if you want to stay connected with us, do that. You can find us on Instagram. That's instagram.com fantasy footballers. You can subscribe, review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iheartradio ad free on Stitcher Premium. We appreciate your support.

[Andy Holloway]

What?

[Jason Moore]

What? What?

[Andy Holloway]

Jay Grizzle has over 20,000 Twitter followers.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but obviously, I mean, follow the bear. It's because in moments like that, when I'm promoting our show and our handles.

[Andy Holloway]

I will be honest. He's one of the best.

[Jason Moore]

You circumvent and you tell the people about the bear. You're a bear evangelist.

[Andy Holloway]

He's one of the best followers on Twitter and whoever runs that account, which we all know is Jay Grizz.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I can say this. It's none of us. Nobody in this studio runs out of.

[Andy Holloway]

Camp, is so good at it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Yeah. A lot of thought and effort goes into being a bear on Twitter.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true.

[Jason Moore]

All right, again, Jason mentioned it. To open the show, if you Pre order the UDK before March 1st, you get a $10 gift card to shopballers.com a $10 gift card to fantasychamps.com and you get a chance to win a ultimate Fantasy footballers prize pack, including a studio tour and a sit in on the recording. Two customized jerseys from fantasychamps.com and a shout out on the show. A shout out as the first member of the 2019 Listener League. Check all that out@ultimate draftkit.com.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league presented by Sleeper.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we're hitting the rumor mill a little bit today, but we've also got some big news. Let's start with the news out of Denver. Recently, John Elway said the Broncos are indeed picking up the contract option on wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders.

[Andy Holloway]

I love that they're doing it. I'm surprised that they're doing it. You know, you got a plus 30 wide receiver coming off of a torn Achilles. That's right. Wasn't it a torn Achilles? You gave me a look like, like it might not be, but I'm pretty confident that's what it was. So I'm happy for Emmanuel Sanders. He Tweeted out, you know, the coach said, it's happening, let's make it a great one. And look, Emmanuel Sanders was dominating last year even with Case Keenum. Emmanuel Sanders was a fantasy star. So if he can get healthy and prior to the season you see him running around and that he is back, he'll probably slip in drafts and I would be, I would be fine taking him. It hurts Daeshun Hamilton.

[Jason Moore]

Well, that's what I was going to bring up and that was my face. It wasn't, it wasn't the injury. He was indeed injured towards Achilles, but it was in the same breath John Elway talked about expecting big things from Cortland Sutton. You got Daeshun Hamilton there, you know, a quarterback situation that's probably going to be in the hands of Joe Flacco. We don't know that for sure. But is Cortland Sutton taking a nosedive on a one year glance?

[Andy Holloway]

No, I don't think so. I mean, Demarius Thomas was great with Emmanuel Sanders still there. I don't think that, look, if Cortland Sutton is good enough to be a true one in the NFL, he's good enough to do that with or without Emmanuel Sanders on the field. I don't think, I mean, maybe his, his top end comes down a little bit. Maybe he, he has fewer targets he can receive. But I don't think it, you know, Daeshun on the other hand, who kind of projects more in the Emanuel Sanders type, he's not the big bodied downfield receiver the same way that Cortland Sutton is. I think dejon takes the hit.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's go ahead and turn here. This is very interesting news, Jason. Free agent running back Latavius Murray is looking for a starting role. Make no mistake about it. He says, I want to start. I'm not content being a backup.

[Andy Holloway]

I am also looking for a starting gig in the NFL. So many GMs are out there. Both myself and Latavius Murray strongly believe in ourself that we can be a starting running back. None of this backup nonsense.

[Jason Moore]

Now look, we have a platform, right? This is a large podcast. A lot of people listen to it. But ultimately we decide, you know what, we're going to talk about this. You know, you talking about wanting to be in the NFL. It just naturally lends itself to the fact that you scored a touchdown game winning, a game winning touchdown in our flag football game on Tuesday. Some threw you that pass.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, it was this MVP caliber quarterback, Mr. Andrew Holloway.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Threw the game winning touchdown Pass to me and I've heard, to me on the streets, it referred to as a boss touchdown.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, Jason went with the very Sir Charles rebound strategy. He wrapped it up with two hands and then just, you know, nobody could get it.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I went up. It was a jump ball situation. I grabbed it and I was laying on the ground with that ball.

[Jason Moore]

We had our first victory.

[Andy Holloway]

We did.

[Jason Moore]

First victory.

[Andy Holloway]

Not our first game, though.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Hey, here's some hype train. Other news, new Raiders GM Mike Mayock, who normally.

[Andy Holloway]

Nope.

[Jason Moore]

Normally this time of year, Mike Mayock is talking about draft picks. Now he is going to be talking about them, but in the context of being the new GM of the Raiders.

[Andy Holloway]

Let'S talk about the Falcons coach.

[Jason Moore]

I'm sorry, we're going to have to stay here, Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

No, no, no, no.

[Jason Moore]

He said Marcel Aitman is Oakland's number one ex wide receiver. He's also very excited about running back Chris Warren. Jason, tell us about these. These players on Oakland.

[Andy Holloway]

I am so mad at Chris Warren, the man, and he has done nothing other than be an excellent running back. Last year in preseason, got injured and the Raiders clearly liked him. They stashed him on IR the whole season.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, they did.

[Andy Holloway]

They wanted him back and now he's being talked up. Look, if you're in a dynasty league, Chris Warren should be. Should be stashed in every format. I held on to Chris Warren last year in our dynasty league.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Up until about three days ago, where instead of dropping DEZ Bryant, I actually dropped Chris Warren. I made him. I went to rectify that mistake. I was going to go out there and grab Jordan Laslie, which another dynasty owners. If you're out there, Jordan. Lastly, just like Marcel Aitman projects to be pretty much the one until free agency of the draft happens. That's the Baltimore rookie from last year. But I went to bid and bring Chris Warren back on my team and I was outbid.

[Jason Moore]

You know who got him? Brooks. I have a pretty good idea.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I'll give you a hint. He's stupid and ugly and one of my best friends.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Yes, I picked up Chris Warren. Also picked up Marcel Aitman.

[Andy Holloway]

You did.

[Jason Moore]

You had a good yesterday, so pay attention. Look, I've talked to a lot of people, talked to Justin Boone on his podcast the other day. He takes the approach that a lot of fantasy owners do. Don't touch an Oakland Raider. I mean, you just don't want a piece of that offense. But in my opinion, doesn't matter how good that offense is. If you Have. If you have the guys that are, you know, I don't think they're going to spend the money in free agency. Other people think they will. I don't. And if Chris Warren and Marcel Aitman have opportunities there in Oakland to be coached up, Aitman came on at the end of the year. Chris Warren has an opportunity. No Marsh, more Sean lynch this year.

[Andy Holloway]

No more Sean Lynch.

[Jason Moore]

Did I say more Sean? No more Sean lynch and no Doug Martin. So Jared Cook going to test the open market in free agency. If Jared Cook leaves. Talk about a void of pass catchers in Oakland.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. And the throwers, what? Well, they only have Derek Carr, so they.

[Jason Moore]

Quarterback Derek Carr had a great year.

[Andy Holloway]

He did. It's really weird because he didn't at all, but. Right.

[Jason Moore]

But he did.

[Andy Holloway]

You know, his stats say he had a good year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he didn't and he did.

[Andy Holloway]

But I don't think anybody out there thought, man, Derek Carr really, really had.

[Jason Moore]

A great year now, including his head coach. I don't think his head coach thought that. Hey. Another dynasty player to pay attention to. Running back Edo Smith, second year running back. Falcons coach Dan Quinn says he's going to see a significant increase in offensive looks this season. Tevin Coleman, a free agent. Ido Smith, drafted by this regime.

[Andy Holloway]

It may. It makes sense. I mean, this is basically them saying, yeah, I think Tevin Coleman is gone.

[Jason Moore]

Right, Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Instead of saying that, they said, yeah, you know, Smith's going to be great. This is also. And this is something that Bookland should know. This is the time of year where all players are great and their coaches love them all, and they are fantastic and they're all going to be the best.

[Jason Moore]

Speaking of that, Kyle Shanahan says Jerick McKinnon went down with the torn ACL last preseason. On track in his recovery, expects him to be the lead back in San Francisco. Do we get redemption from Jerick McKinnon? All the expectations last year were very high.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we do. I am. I mean, I was high on him last year. He unfortunately got injured. I am right back on the train. I never left. It was. It was, you know, park.

[Jason Moore]

That's what they do. They park them in the. In a garage.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Well, what do you. What do you do with the train.

[Jason Moore]

Yard they go to? Right, Brooks, what do you, you know, train.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Question, Brooks, what do they do with the train in the train yard? Would you say they park it in the train yard?

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I guess so.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know. I'm no train spurt.

[Jason Moore]

Agreed. Andrew Whitworth coming back Rams offensive tackle. This is big news for Todd Gurley coming back for a 14th year. Yes, he's 37, but he was great. Yes, he's great.

[Andy Holloway]

He was great last year. Graded out excellent across the board. This is huge news because he, you.

[Jason Moore]

Know, he's foundational to that offensive line.

[Andy Holloway]

Everything, every piece of credit has been given to Sean McVeigh and Sean McVeigh certainly deserves some. But the offensive line, if you look at Gurley's numbers, yards before contact, things like that, a huge part of it was Andrew Whitworth and him coming back is great news for.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Less need Sean McVeigh. You want to give him credit for adding Andrew Whitworth, you can do that. He's a great player. And then Ian Rapaport talked about the fact that Bengals are shopping third year wide receiver John Ross combine darling. Their director of player personnel said it was, quote, fake news. This. Neither of those reports are we love John Ross and we can't wait to make him a part of our offense. So based on what you said, with every coach loving all their players right now, is John. If you're a dynasty owner of John Ross, first of all, apologies. I'm sorry, you've probably gone through a box of Kleenex by now. Last year, you know, he scored seven touchdowns on like seven passes for like seven yards. But Ross hasn't been what they expected him to be. Dealt with injuries back in college, deals with them now. Tyler Boyd, A.J. green. Look, is Ross a better. Would you be happier with him being moved or would you be.

[Andy Holloway]

I'd be much happier with him being moved.

[Jason Moore]

Even with Zach Taylor there in Cincinnati?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I mean, look, if he stays, I think John Ross has a better 2019 than he had a in 2018. You know, I think he, he continues to progress. I think the offense gets better. But I, I mean, they're, they're not in love with them. You know, they probably were shopping them and the reason that they say it's fake news is because once it comes out that they're shopping him, they don't have, they're not going to get value. Everyone's going to offer nothing. So, yeah, I do hope he moves because if another team is giving up value, then they want him as part of their team. You know, let's say John Ross goes to Tampa Bay, becomes the Deshaun Jackson replacement, you know, the burner. And with Bruce Arians, I would love that because I do think John Ross is actually a talented wide receiver. His Deep catch rate. He had the highest percentage of uncatchable targets.

[Jason Moore]

Well, if he kept his touchdown rate up last year and he caught 100 passes, he'd be up in the 35 touchdown range.

[Andy Holloway]

That's okay.

[Jason Moore]

But look, John Ross, here's the good news. He is still just 24 years old and he is a burner. And if he can get it turned around, he will change. He will take the top off of defense. Philadelphia, that could be a destination.

[Andy Holloway]

Would you be willing to target John Ross in Dynasty on the cheap, or do you just. Are you off?

[Jason Moore]

I'm off. He's firmly in the, I don't know, devonte Parker category of if he does well for somebody else, then he does well for somebody else. I don't want to target him. He's not been good. Did you talk. Did you mention the Evan Silva quote about it?

[Andy Holloway]

I did not.

[Jason Moore]

He's caught 35% of his targets.

[Andy Holloway]

That is atrocious.

[Jason Moore]

He's dropped 12% of his targets.

[Andy Holloway]

Also atrocious.

[Jason Moore]

But also 8% of his targets have been picked off.

[Andy Holloway]

That is atrocious.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but he's averaging 3.5 yards per target, which is atrocious. Yeah. By the way, lots of Dynasty chatter today. Make sure you switch your Dynasty league to Sleeper. Download the Sleeper app today. Move your lineup over to a modern platform. Let's get to the main event.

[Andy Holloway]

Trending or ending?

[Jason Moore]

Jay Grizz, Nothing to say?

[Andy Holloway]

No.

[Jason Moore]

No. All right. Hey.

[Andy Holloway]

Made out of cardboard.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Aaron Jones. Let's start here. Trending or ending? Let's have some debate discussion. Aaron Jones, can he be an RB1 in fantasy for 2019? Last year, 133 rushing attempts, average 5.5 per carry. That is the league leader with a minimum of 130 attempts the year before. Guess what? 5.5 a carry. Too many fives not to hit that drop. Look, he was the RB9 in points per game from weeks 10 through 16. That's a good switch. RB13 from weeks 4 through 14. Missed the final two games of the year, placed on IR. What can fantasy owners get from Aaron Jones? Are we. Are we setting yourself up for a value pick that turns into a top 12, top 15 guy or for heartache due to a committee situation?

[Andy Holloway]

Look, I've. Where do you weigh in on this show? I. Last season was probably the most anti Aaron Jones from just a cost to get him and belief of McCarthy and whether he would actually get enough volume to succeed. And you had to wait, like you said, until what, week 10 before anything mattered. With Aaron Jones, if you remember, he was suspended. Now, I believe that Aaron Jones will have a successful fantasy season in 2019. Is that RB1? I think that's like that. I think he's got the ceiling for it. But I would put him more in the, you know, top 20 running backs, a worthy draft pick. I don't think he's going to, especially with news coming out right. Like Matt LaFleur said, that running back is one of the more violent positions and you need to take an RBBC approach. Right. That's bad news. Fantasy owners hate hearing that he wants to do a split same way he did with Dion Lewis and Derek Henry. And the same way, you know, he was part of the 2015, 2016 Atlanta Falcons. And so he has that roadmap with Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman. But the split is fine if the predominant running back in that split is getting, you know, 15 carries. Because if you look back to the 2015, 2016 seasons with Devonta Freeman, Devonta Freeman had seven games each year with 15 or more carries. So he was fine in an RBBC. He was. I believe the running back won one of those years. If you look, even last year with Matt LaFleur, with Deion Lewis and Derrick Henry, they combined for nine games with 15 or more touches. Last season, Aaron Jones only had three.

[Jason Moore]

I think the thing you want to see from at LaFleur is not. We don't have delusions of an NFL where every team has one guy and they're the only one that touches the ball. But you want to see logical committee usage. You were frustrated so many times last year when Aaron Jones was carving up a defense, but then Jamal Williams found himself onto the field for important drives, key situations, and you almost felt that frustration through Aaron Rodgers. One of the things that I put in the. In the positive column for Aaron Jones is the endorsement and confidence that Aaron Rodgers has shown in Aaron Jones. But there is a risk. There is a risk there because Jamal Williams is a competent running back.

[Andy Holloway]

Let me ask you this. Where do you think the packers Last season of 2018 ranked for total rushing attempts?

[Jason Moore]

Oof. Oof. I have no idea. So let me guess. I'm guessing they ranked 25th. Are they dead last?

[Andy Holloway]

They're dead last. So whatever you said, if it wasn't 32, the answer was I was wrong. Yeah, that was a franchise low for Green Bay's rushing attack. As far as total rushing attempts by running backs, the they've got nowhere to go but up. And now they've got a, you know, an offensive coordinator coming in with a history of last year with Tennessee Titans. They were number nine in rushing attempts.

[Jason Moore]

So I But it took him a while to figure out the Derek Henry needed the Rock more too. I don't like the question. Brooks. I don't like can he be an RB one? That is too open ended. Of course he can. We've seen it. Will Aaron Jones be an RB1 in 2019? Will that trend continue? Jason, how do you weigh in today? I weigh in with a no, I think he'll be an RB2.

[Andy Holloway]

I weigh in with a no, I think he'll be an RB2. But I actually believe Aaron Jones will be a good fantasy pick because I don't think he'll be drafted anywhere near the top 12.

[Jason Moore]

All right, number two, trending or ending? Oh, this one kind of. This kind of hurts. Is Alshon Jeffrey a wide receiver three for fantasy now points per game. Wow, Brooks, these are some numbers. He has been last year the wide receiver 25 in points per game. The year before 21 year before that 35. So that's three consecutive years outside the top 20. He was a. He had three straight years inside the top 13 back in 2013, 2014, 2015. Do we need to adjust our expectations for Alshon Jeffrey or will Carson Wentz lift him up?

[Andy Holloway]

No. I mean it depends on what your expectation is, but he is not a guaranteed wide receiver two or better. There's no way. I mean, last year when we were going into the draft, one of our bust alerts was the combo of Carson Wentz and Alshon Jeffrey because you had Carson Wentz throwing an outlandish rate of touchdowns. And we said, okay, that's going to regress. Even if he has a really good year, that's going to regress. Alshon Jeffrey made his hay scoring touchdowns. So if that regresses from Alshon Jeffrey, he's not a, you know, he's not usually the hundred catch, 1300 yard type of receiver at all. He certainly doesn't seem like that right now. So it's all about the touchdown and I think they bring in another wide receiver this off season. Think Carson Wentz does rebound and has a good year. But the expectation for me is yeah, wide receiver 25 is probably the highest I would draft him.

[Jason Moore]

I believe that Alshon is a wide receiver 2, not a wide receiver 3. So if I said trending or ending, I think this trend of finishing outside the top 20 ends this year. I think he's a top. I think he finishes right around wide receiver 17, 18 and the thing that people don't realize because offseason is about perspective and perception and the news and the aura around a player. Look, it hasn't been positive for Carson Wentz. Nick Foles, every year they rally around him. Carson Wentz injured again, news about locker room issues. But what are, what are the facts about Carson Wentz? Here's the facts. Career high in completion percentage by a wide margin last year. Still a great touchdown to interception ratio 3 to 1. Last year he had a better passer rating than his MVP season. Carson Wentz is the guy.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a very good.

[Jason Moore]

Foles is gone.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he's a very good quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

So do I think that Alshon Jeffrey has topped 10 potential again? No, I don't. I think those days are long gone. But I do know that Carson Wentz and Alshon Jeffrey have a connection and I think that that's good enough to be inside that top 20. That's. That's where I lean.

[Andy Holloway]

That's fair. I mean, the logic is sound. We will just agree to disagree. I'll say this. If they cut Nelson Aguilar and don't bring someone in, then he'll certainly be higher in my rankings because he'll have to be.

[Jason Moore]

He'll still be the most tenured.

[Andy Holloway]

But I think that they are going to bring in someone that's an impact.

[Jason Moore]

All right, Number three is Matt Ryan, a top five fantasy quarterback trending or ending Last year He was the QB2, Jason. The QB2.

[Andy Holloway]

I know. I won a championship on his back. You remember that? I took that away from you.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And he's still complaining about you climbing up there. He's, he's not a fan.

[Andy Holloway]

He was also the number two quarterback two years ago in 2016.

[Jason Moore]

He was. And he's, he's been in the top 10 for other years. But he did have, you know, based on the actual trend, he has bounced in and out the top of the top 10 his four straight years. Five straight years.

[Andy Holloway]

His trend in 2012, he was the number seven great top eight quarterback. Then he drops down to 15 next year he's back up to number seven. Then he drops to 19 next year he's up to number two next year, down to 15 this past year, up to number two again. So I.

[Jason Moore]

Based on that trend.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's 15. Quarterback 15. Matt Riddle.

[Jason Moore]

Well, that'd be bad. That would be bad for fantasy.

[Andy Holloway]

All jokes aside, I believe he's much, much closer to quarterback 15 than he is to quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

Really?

[Andy Holloway]

I do. Now you're an ending I am an ending. I love the web. The additional weapon of Calvin Ridley. For him, he has always been as good as his wide receivers are. You know, some, some quarterbacks make their wide receiver core better. He doesn't. The wide receiver core makes him better. But last year, I think the absence of Devonta Freeman just destroyed their rushing game. They had the fewest number of rushing attempts that they've had in the last five years. They had to figure it out through the air. Also, if you remember at the beginning of the season when they were a Super bowl contending team and then they lost their whole defense. Like all of their superstar defender defensive players went down to season ending injuries and their defense stunk. Well, their defense is going to be a lot better this year. They're not going to need to be in shootouts the way they were last year. I think this, I think the actual trend of the good year, bad year, good year, bad year continues. And Matt Ryan has a bad year.

[Jason Moore]

Well, that goes beyond the top five fantasy quarterback question. You think he actually has a down year? I think some people look at Julio Calvin Ridley and they think keep it going, Hooper. But I think that's an interesting argument. I guess I tend to lean outside the top five. I think there'll be other guys emerging, you know, Carson Wentz or Matt Ryan. Who do you want next year?

[Andy Holloway]

Carson Wentz.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's Riley too.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean it's funny, I've got. Those are my two quarterbacks in dynasty and literally today, totally unrelated to this, I just decided to set my lineup because why not? It's.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, you're ready to go. You're ready to go.

[Andy Holloway]

Wednesday, February 22nd, I put Chris Warren in.

[Jason Moore]

Let me.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, you shut your stupid. Yeah, you know what? Put him in, put him in your starting lineup. Go ahead, champs. Not scared.

[Jason Moore]

Do you want to trade me? But, but I. Andrews for Chris Warren.

[Andy Holloway]

No, but I will. We'll talk.

[Jason Moore]

You're thinking about it.

[Andy Holloway]

No, the 203 is what you need. You trade me the 203, I'll trade you Mark Andrews. You need tight end. I want the 203 but I put Carson Wentz in my starting lineup over Matt Ryan. Just to say that. Look, he's my.

[Jason Moore]

This was number one a statement thing.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes. You had to send a message to Matty Ice say, look, I don't believe in you this year. I think Carson went is going to be fine. Step it up.

[Jason Moore]

I forgot you had Carson Wentz. That stinks. All right, next one trending or ending is Robert Woods a top 12 wide receiver yet again in 2019. Look, it has been an ascension, a large one for Robert woods going back to his Buffalo days when he finished outside the top 60 at the position. Then his first year in Los Angeles, he was wide receiver 31 than last year. Hello, Robert woods, wide receiver 10. Is he a top 12 guy? No. No, he's not. That's where I, that's where I weigh in, Jason.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, he is.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, he is.

[Andy Holloway]

Yes, he is. Robert woods is one of those perennially disrespected guys. Got off to too slow of a start for his career. So you just don't believe it. Very Doug Baldwin esque. Right? Doug Baldwin. You saw him for five or six years.

[Jason Moore]

I like the comp. Yeah, that makes sense.

[Andy Holloway]

He's just like, we know what he is. He's not. He's not a stud fantasy player. He got a lot of touchdowns, got lucky. No, he's a great wide receiver and Robert woods has always passed the eye test. He is actually a great wide receiver now. He's on one of the best offenses in the league. You look at just about any weak range last year and you go, wow, he was good in the beginning of the year. Oh, okay. He was real solid in the middle. He was really good at the end. This wasn't like Cooper cup goes down and now Robert woods is relevant. Robert woods was great. So I'm going to say Robert woods is a top 12 wide receiver. Now, when my draft rankings are done and I stat every single player out, I'll be surprised if he finishes. You know, because there's so many great wide receivers, I'll be surprised if he ranks in that top 12. But I view him as a wide receiver one in fantasy, not, certainly not a tier one guy, but a guy where wherever, wherever he is drafted next year, I already know it's going to be too low.

[Jason Moore]

Well, I. Look the concerns, the narrative out there is going to be Cooper cup returns. Last year he ran 51%. This is. Robert woods ran 51% of his routes in the slot. The year before in Los Angeles, only 14% of his routes in the slot. Cooper cup does make a difference. You also wonder about an ascending talent in Gerald Everett. Is that another piece of the offense that Sean McVeigh takes advantage of? I just think, I think you saw the ceiling last year. 86 for 12, 19 and 6. I think he's. I just don't know if he can get back to that.

[Andy Holloway]

Here's an interesting statistic for everyone out there who's going to totally agree with that narrative. And I think that, you know, if.

[Jason Moore]

We put the majority. Probably will.

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely.

[Jason Moore]

Which is to your point that he will always be drafted below where you believe he belongs.

[Andy Holloway]

85% of people out there will think, well, Cooper cup will come back. He's. He's not the guy we saw. Well, you had eight games with Cooper Cup. You had eight games without Cooper Cup. Which one do you think he scored more fantasy points in? Because it was with Cooper cup. He scored two more fantasy points a game. 17.74 PPR versus 15.46 with Cooper Cup.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean, they were on fire.

[Andy Holloway]

I love Robert Woods.

[Jason Moore]

You do?

[Andy Holloway]

My guy candidate.

[Jason Moore]

It's ironic because, I mean, I loved Robert woods in Buffalo.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Yeah. No, back in the.

[Jason Moore]

There was a time when Buffalo had Sammy Washington, Robert woods and Marquis Goodwin on the same roster and Hogan might have been there one year with all three of them and people still thought.

[Andy Holloway]

Tyrod Taylor was a good quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I blame Rex Ryan.

[Andy Holloway]

I blame. Sure. I'm fine.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Tyrod Taylor is an interesting free agent candidate, by the way.

[Andy Holloway]

He's a great fantasy quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

He's a very interesting. Like there's a world where Tyra Taylor ends up in Jacksonville, not Nick Foles. That's what I believe.

[Andy Holloway]

Absolutely.

[Jason Moore]

All right, this is another great question here. Will Kris Carson See 20 plus touches a game? Because he did it over the last four weeks of last season and seven times during the year he had more than 20 touches. Chris Carson was a workhorse. 22, 28, 27, 20. That's how he finished the year. They had the second fewest rushing attempts two years ago. Two having the most rushing attempts last year. That's the way it's going to continue for them. They were successful. They won their last five games. Chris Carson was a monster. So does he continue to see 20 plus touches a game? Jason, ending or ending?

[Andy Holloway]

No, I don't. I don't think he does. Will he be close? I mean, I'm going to probably stat him out for about 288 touches on a 16 game year, which will be.

[Jason Moore]

A lot of touches.

[Andy Holloway]

That's a lot of touches.

[Jason Moore]

But 451 is what the team had.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that would. Well, and that's probably including Russell Wilson, all his scrambles. So that would be about 18 a game. Which says, I think Chris Carson is going to get a lot of work, but I don't believe he's going to be a 20 plus touch guy. I think Rashad Penny gets more involved, you know, year two you forget he broke his hand early in the season in the training camp. Miss a preseason games was a little out of shape. But later in the year Rashad Penny looked good. Now Mike Davis is, I guess I was going to say probably gone. That's no foregone. He might be back, but he is an unrestricted free age.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I think you overemphasized Mike Davis's usage though. I know, I know that they use them last year. But even if he's back Penny, the first round draft capital and how you saw Penny used at the end of the year. I'm just less concerned than you are about Mike Davis. About a guy that any guy that can just be re signed for pennies on the dollar which is what the case is going to be for them. I just don't worry about him.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I mean the only reason I worry about Mike Davis is just simply touches. For Rashad Penny, it's the passing work. Right. He had 34 receptions. He was often used as the pass catching back. Rashad Penny should do that because he has the capability. But he also had 112 rushing attempts. So you know, it was just a good enough number to. Where those going away have to be taken up by someone. More than likely it'll. If Mike Davis leaves, they're not going to not sign another back.

[Jason Moore]

Sure, sure. So I think we both agree, I don't think 20 plus a game is going to be in the realm of possibility.

[Andy Holloway]

But that would be 320 carries on the season. And also one thing to keep in mind, Chris Carza does not have a great track record of health. And when you watch him play, you understand why. Because he runs like a man with no fear of pain or linebackers.

[Jason Moore]

Have you seen his shoulders? That's why he runs that way.

[Andy Holloway]

Dude, he is a.

[Jason Moore]

He is a laboratory creation.

[Andy Holloway]

One could call him a man.

[Jason Moore]

Yes, yes.

[Andy Holloway]

But still, Even these superstar NFL players.

[Jason Moore]

300 carries a season, that's tough.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

All right, here's one that I want to focus on. Will Derek Henry see 15 plus rushing attempts per game in the upcoming year? Because look, 2016, 7.3 a game, 2017, 11 a game. Last year, 13.4 a game. But over the last part of the season, he was an absolute monster. And the thing that should surprise fantasy owners about Derek Henry is it wasn't just a volume situation. Look, you know, it was. He had the monster game, the super game. But look, Derek Henry had success last year seeing eight plus men in the box 44% of the time. That's more than anybody in football. He received the ball around the goal line second, the second most of anybody in football. He actually had pro football focused rushing metrics that put him in the upper echelon of performance last year as a runner. So it wasn't just volume. That's what I want to bring up. And so it's like, do we have to just accept the fact that Derek Henry is more valuable than we ever thought he would be?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we really, really do. If I were to. I mean, the over under here, 15 carries a game. That is way too low. This is an easy. Absolutely, yes, he will Average more than 15 touches, 15 carries a game during the final four games and including, you know, into the playoffs. Look, Derek Henry took over after his breakout game. They said, what are we doing? We need to, we need to give this guy the ball more. He. To the tune of 21.8 carries a game, a 16 game pace of 348. If you'd asked me, will Derek Henry get 20 carries a game, that's right around where I think he. I think he will receive about 20 carries a game. So I think he'll crush the 15 carry count. And shame on me if I'm wrong because Derek Henry has. We've got enough track record to say he has not been great in the NFL.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

But I think they figured it out at the end of the year. They said this is a guy that if we give him 12 carries a game, he's not doing to the defense what his best quality is. He's not wearing these guys down saying, hey, tackle this mountain.

[Jason Moore]

Well, and the confidence of knowing you're going to get the ball, the confidence of knowing you're the guy, I mean, that makes a huge difference on the way a person runs. If he, for years he had to run out there and spell somebody and then they say, Derek Henry, you're a bruiser. Go make a play on a single one off. And then if. And then he runs into the back of it. I mean, he. Two years ago he failed to convert a lot of fourth downs because it's difficult to get into a rhythm. He is a rhythm monster.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think that they will give him the ball a lot and I will probably draft him, which, oh, wish, wish for me, pray for me. If I draft Derek Henry, I'm going to be so scared because he's been so bad, but I believe in him.

[Jason Moore]

Well, you got to change your, you got to change your tune. That's the thing is, even after his breakout game last year, I didn't, I didn't pivot quick enough. I didn't buy in quick enough because I thought I had seen enough failure. But maybe he figured it out.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, well, they followed that up with a 33 carry game.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. All right. Mike Williams, double digit TDs again. Trending or ending? He had what, 11 last year? Brooks? Yeah, I think so. I think one on the ground, 10 through the air, something like that. Mike Williams, is he a double digit tight end? Fluke. I kind of want a red zone monster.

[Andy Holloway]

I want to take the ending because I feel like you're going to take the trending because you were you. One of your bold predictions this past year was that he'd have double digit touchdowns and it came true. But I think you have to, you have to say it's going to keep happening. This was what he was brought in for. He's that type of a prototypical.

[Jason Moore]

He's a monster of a man.

[Andy Holloway]

If you're in the red zone, why not throw it to that dude now? Derek Henry or Hunter Henry? Hunter Henry. Maybe he comes in and eats a few touchdowns near the goal line. Delicious touchdown. But you're also probably losing Tyrell Williams to free agency. So I mean, I don't know why you would expect Mike Williams to regress.

[Jason Moore]

No, I think he has, I think he has more upward movement. Possible. Philip Rivers had a 131.6 quarterback rating when targeting Mike Williams. He has a huge catch radius. Look, 11th best contested catch rate amongst wide receivers. He is a playmaker and I love him. I think he's a great player. There was a world where I was looking at, this might sound crazy, but as a dynasty buy sell Canada, I was looking real hard at Keenan Allen. Trying to figure out what I think about Keenan Allen's next few years. Because you talk about Hunter Henry coming back. I look at him as, yeah, you can make an argument that he's a red zone threat to Mike Williams. I'm not concerned about that. I think he's somebody that's going to eat up the middle of the field the way that Keenan Allen has been prone to do as well. I don't think Allen is disappearing by any stretch. Don't overread into what I'm saying. But I'm wondering, in a dynasty league, do you. Would you rather have Keenan Allen today than Mike Williams? Yeah, I think you said yes. You have to say yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you have to.

[Jason Moore]

But I think Mike Williams has a lot of upward movement left in him.

[Andy Holloway]

I agree with that. I'm not Worried at all about Keenan Allen? I think Kenan Allen is still the primary guy. He's still going to get his touchdowns. And clearly the targets, the receptions between the 20s work. So I love both of these guys. I don't think Mike Williams hurts Keenan.

[Jason Moore]

All right, let's close it out with this one. Is Big Ben, Big Ben Roethlisberger, last year's quarterback? Three, is he a top five quarterback in 2019?

[Andy Holloway]

Nope.

[Jason Moore]

Is he a top 10 quarterback in 2019?

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to say no.

[Jason Moore]

If you say no. What does that mean for Juju? If Juju doesn't have a top 10 quarterback, is he the same player?

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, he's fine. Juju's fine. Let me ask you this. In 2016, who was the quarterback or the wide receiver? One.

[Jason Moore]

In 2016.

[Andy Holloway]

In 2016, Antonio Brown, probably Antonio Brown. What about in 2015?

[Jason Moore]

Brown.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's when Big Ben Roethlisberger was quarterback 18. Quarterback 21.

[Jason Moore]

That's a solid argument.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm not worried about. Look, look, when you lose Antonio Brown, it will have effects. It will have effects on every other player on the roster. And you know, look, this was Big Ben's best year for fantasy finish ever. And I don't think that it's because of any other reason than the fact that you have Antonio Brown and juju show up. You have pretty much your best core at their own peaks ever. And it's going the opposite direction now.

[Jason Moore]

So now you got it for just one year.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, I was really high on Big Ben this past season as a fantasy player. We had explain yourself episodes on my love for him and that's gone now. Now if I will say this, if Antonio Brown is back, sure he's. He'll definitely be top 10.

[Jason Moore]

There was a little bit of extra news this morning. Jack Doyle, tight end for the Colts, he underwent off season hip surgery, so he will be sidelined until training camp. He's probably going to miss all of OTAs. He's probably going to miss all of minicamp. You know, he missed a ton of time in the regular season last year. He ended up on injured reserve late in the season. Look, it's concerning. Yeah. Doyle is 29.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm so happy that Eric Ebron finally became a thing because I was a real believer. And he kept letting you down.

[Jason Moore]

But what's crazy, I think Eric Ebron might be a thing again.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Because look, tight ends just why you should trade me.

[Jason Moore]

Mark Andrews, you don't need. You don't need him.

[Andy Holloway]

Historically, tight ends take several Years before they become relevant. It's very common. Very common. Look at Greg Olson. For it to be the second contract is when a tight end actually becomes a really relevant piece. Well, this is his second contract now. He's on a great offense. He's 25. You feel like he's 34.

[Jason Moore]

Bewildering because you feel with when Ebron came onto the scene and Doyle came onto the scene, you feel like Doyle's younger. Doyle's 29 with hip injuries.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

Eric Ebron is 25 somehow and never ages.

[Andy Holloway]

Right? No, it's fantastic.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean that trending or ending Eric Ebron.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going trending. I believe in Eric Ebron. I do. I mean I always have. And I think he's a very easy guy to target, to say late bloomer. He's going to regress because his touchdown pace was ridiculous. But I actually believe, even if, even if his touchdown pace regresses, which I would say is fair. Right. His production for fantasy in the offense, in a great offense is going to be fine. He's going to be a top five tight end. Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I mean the argument against him would be a few things. One, adding another pass catching piece in the wide receiver game. They have Ty Hilton and a bunch of scrubs. Misfits. Yeah. Zach Pascal and you know, last year it was Donchrell Inman and, and there were a handful. But if they add another powerful wide receiver piece and then, you know. Can Andrew Luck throw 40 touchdowns again? Of course he can. But he's probably a candidate to lose four or five of his touchdowns this year. He threw 39. If Marlon Mack gets in the end zone a handful more times, Naim Hines out of the backfield. There's a world where like you said, I think the odds are that Ebron's touchdown totals go down. But maybe, maybe he's a little more consistent than he was last year. That would be the hope that he's more involved on a week to week basis. Not just this, you know, three touchdowns here, three touchdowns there and then a goose egg. That's what hurt last year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah. It's hard for any tight end to be consistent for fantasy unless they're 150 target guy like a Zach Ertz or Travis Kelsey.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, no doubt. Pristine deal of the day. All right, as we close it out, we got the pristine deal of the day. Pristineauction.com let them know the footballer sent you when you sign up and bid.

[Andy Holloway]

Because today this one's ridiculous.

[Jason Moore]

Well, which one? There are two. We're throwing two in there real quick.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm going to go with the one that was just talked about. This is the less ridiculous, still ridiculous one. Ty Hilton. We were just talking about him. Signed Indianapolis Colts jersey. PSA certified. Certified, yeah. Authentic signature. $47.

[Jason Moore]

Yesterday.

[Andy Holloway]

Yesterday. $47. Hang that on your wall.

[Jason Moore]

47 bucks.

[Andy Holloway]

That's unbelievable.

[Jason Moore]

And then if you want some old school gear, they got everything. They got everything. It's crazy, too. Jerry Rice signed 49ers logo football. Beckett certified. Beckett witnessed $65.52.

[Andy Holloway]

Now, is this a Jerry Rice with a G?

[Jason Moore]

Is this a. This is the real Jerry.

[Andy Holloway]

This is the. This is the hall of famer, best wide receiver of all time.

[Jason Moore]

$65 for a signed logo football. And this is the thing about auctions. On Pristine Auction, you can get them at the price that they're at, right?

[Andy Holloway]

You don't.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, it's not like they just listed for 150 bucks. If you're the one on there and you grab it.

[Andy Holloway]

We bid on stuff all the time, every day. Because it's like, whatever, I'm willing to spend 30 bucks on this. I'm willing to spend 50. I'm willing to spend whatever. It doesn't cost you anything unless you win. And then if you win, you go, oh, I what? I stole this thing.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Thanks to Pristine Auction for supporting the show. Thanks to you for listening. Mike will be back early next week. Probably be back for the foot cast tomorrow [e-mail] probably. So take care. Enjoy the combine. Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on twitterballers.