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Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast
Ultimate Draft Tips + Eye-Popping Insights - Fantasy Football Podcast
00:52:27
The Fantasy Footballers are back with a special episode! Get fantasy football draft tips pulled straight from the 2020 Ultimate Draft Kit, with insights and analytics to help you win your league. What valuable fantasy info can be found in the Red Zone Rep
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- [00:00]
A
Hey, this is Jonathan Taylor, running back for the Indianapolis Colts. And you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.
- [00:30]
B
Welcome in.
- [00:35]
C
Or as Jonathan Taylor would say, America, man.
- [00:40]
B
Welcome to the show. Thursday, May 28, the fantasy footballers Podcast. Back with you, Jason Moore. Mike the fantasy hitman. Right. I'm Andy Holloway. It's gonna be a great show today.
- [00:56]
A
Yes, it is.
- [00:57]
B
For a change.
- [00:59]
A
It's about time.
- [01:00]
C
You know, you sounded almost tired.
- [01:05]
A
Well, I am very tired, Mike. I am, I am exhausted. Just as a.
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B
You seem like you've been tired for days.
- [01:09]
A
You are, you have nailed it. You are right on the money. I am exhausted.
- [01:14]
C
Did you know there's cures for that? There are like one specific.
- [01:18]
A
Yeah, energy drinks. I hear you loud and clear, Michael.
- [01:24]
B
You doing okay?
- [01:25]
A
Oh yeah. I mean, look, the honest truth is we are putting in a ton of work and recording hundreds of videos. Yeah, it's exhausting, but we're here for.
- [01:37]
B
The people, I guess. That brings me to the first point I'll make the first reminder since this is the last episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast before the Ultimate Draft Kit is released. We should talk about that. And today on the show we have our Ultimate Draft tips episode. So we are going to bring forth some, some insight, some guidance from the udk, from some of the reports and some of the features inside of the Draft kit that are illuminating, that are interesting, that will help you understand some players a little bit better and get an idea of just, you know, kind of crack open the lid a little bit.
- [02:15]
A
Look at that. I know my draft tips that I, that I'm coming with today, they've crafted things for me like personally have changed how I'm looking at 2020. So this is great.
- [02:24]
B
One would hope, I mean one would hope that you were pliable to your own advice. Yes, but I wasn't gonna do it this way.
- [02:33]
C
And then I heard myself say something. I was like, it changed everything.
- [02:37]
A
That dude smart.
- [02:40]
B
Alright, so like I said, this is the last show before it comes out. Which means this is the last chance for you to get the lowest possible price on the Ultimate Draft Kit. And that's ultimate draft kit.com got the draft tips on the show today, but if you go to ultimate draft kit.com and pre order, that's the lowest price. You can get the udk. You can get the UDK plus the dfs.
- [03:01]
A
That's what I was going to bring up is if you do play dfs, the combo is so crazy. Discounted before Monday. I mean, Monday, you know, everything is out, it's up, it's ready to go and you know, it's just for sale. You're going to love it, you're going to have it. But if you get there now, the combo is such a smoking deal.
- [03:20]
B
Yeah. And that has all the DFS pass, plus the lineup generator and things like that. A reminder, you can find us on Instagram. Instagram.com fantasy footballers, the community of listeners, players, commissioners, champions. Jointhefoot.com we love you. Foot claim we do and let's go and do some buy, Sell.
- [03:48]
A
Buy or sell. Presented by Pristine Auction.
- [03:56]
B
All right. The Detroit Lions will finish in the top half of the league in rushing yards for the first time since 1998. That is what we are buying or selling. Do you believe the Lions will buck the trend of the last 21 years and end up in the top half in rushing yardage? Look, DeAndre Swift arrives. Carry on. Johnson's there. Is he? Maybe.
- [04:24]
A
He'S still good.
- [04:26]
B
And being highlighted by our famous producer, Judge Giamatti. Quickly highlighted, because I think the judge thought I would believe this is just a layup, a softball. I was kind of insinuating that obviously I was going to sell, but he wants to remind us that over the past three seasons, they have averaged. Their average is 16th. So they've been very, very close to the top. Actually, maybe I wrote that confusingly, Andy. What I meant was over the past three seasons, the team with the 16th most rushing yards had 1800 rushing yards. Right around 1800.
- [05:05]
A
Yes.
- [05:05]
B
And the Lions have averaged. Yeah, they were 21st. No, they're not going to do.
- [05:09]
A
Oh, I love my answer. Are you ready to hear my answer? I love it because here's why we.
- [05:14]
B
Because it's yours.
- [05:15]
A
No, we stat every single player out, every single team out for the ultimate draft kit. So I went and looked at my team rushing yardage to see where they land and they are the 17th worst or the 17th. The 16th best. The 17th worst used. They edged out being in the top half by 12 yards according to mine. So I'm a clear buy they're in the top half this season.
- [05:43]
B
Yeah, but you, you don't even get to answer because Carry On's on the team. So I don't trust anything that you would say about Detroit. There's no way. There's no way they do it. I don't trust the running game at all. And they haven't been able to do it in so long. And we've talked so much about Matthew Stafford and what we saw last year. If anything, we've seen Matt Patricia give up on coming in with the New England philosophy.
- [06:05]
A
No, no, I think he's had to. Their, their offensive line has, has been bad. They made some improvements this year. Andy, coming into the NFL draft, you thought DeAndre Swift was the most talented running back in this year's class. Correct.
- [06:20]
B
But he can't run the ball if you don't. If Matthew Zephyr is throwing it down the field.
- [06:24]
A
I think the combination of DeAndre Swift and Carryon Johnson are a really good one two punch when it comes to rushing the ball. In the past they had Theo Riddick and he was great for, you know, as a receiving back, but as a, as pure rushers. They just haven't had anybody for a long, long time. The only good rusher has been carry on who hasn't been on the field. But the one two punch of these two guys, I think you're talking top half in rushing.
- [06:49]
B
It's just not been close the last four years. 21st, 23rd last and 30th last. Before that, 28th, it was Barry Sanders. That was the last time they did it. 1998, Barry Sanders final year.
- [07:02]
C
It's more about the defense for me. Like I believe that if you're good on the defensive side then you have opportunity, more rushing yards and I'm not exactly sure they are better this year than they were last year. So I'm going to sell. I will say they will be in the bottom half of rushing teams yet again.
- [07:22]
B
I mean they will break it eventually they'll break that streak. I imagine they got to 17th in 2013.
- [07:28]
A
I will say this the way that we have statted teams out, Bears at least what so far. Myself and Andy are saying I have them down for 1846 rushing yards. Andy, you have them down for just under 1500 rushing yards, not running the ball very much. So you, we are true to ourselves. You see them as not a top half running team?
- [07:50]
B
I, yeah, I just think they, they had success throwing the football last year they were competing. I mean I can think of the Minnesota game, you know, when it was back and forth Cousins and Stafford and it was, you know, you've got, you got weapons on the outside. I definitely like DeAndre Swift. I definitely think Kerryon Johnson in a committee makes sense. I just don't know if they get there like you said, Mike, are they going to be winning games?
- [08:14]
C
Right? I mean you look, look at the times last year when you have David BLAU. As your starting quarterback, I'm pretty sure your plan is that we're going to run the ball a lot, and then they're against the Bears and Trubisky and they can't, they can't run the ball because they, because their defense can't stop anybody.
- [08:38]
B
Last year, Kerryon Johnson, Bo Scarborough, Ty Johnson, J.D. mcKissick, C.J. anderson for a minute, like two games. Remember Trey Carson, too.
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A
Yeah.
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B
Paul Perkins made a. Made an appearance last year.
- [08:51]
C
Jackson. I mean, they were trying everybody. That's why they Swift.
- [08:55]
B
That makes it a little harder. All right, that was Buy herself from Pristine Auction. Use the code ballers@pristineauction.com for some sweet autograph sports memorabilia. Again, use the Code Ballers to get a $10 credit. You guys want to get into the tips? I think we don't have any big news to talk about.
- [09:13]
C
Nope. All right.
- [09:17]
A
Tips and tricks.
- [09:23]
B
All right. Some ultimate draft tips for you. I'm pulling some observations out of our red zone report in the ultimate draft kit. That's where I'm going to kick it off. This report gives you the opportunity to find, you know, players that maybe had an opportunity and things didn't go their way. There are some interesting things that I found. Nick Chubb. I want to talk about Nick Chubb because I know I've heard Mike bring up and we've joked about it. I mean, we've seen Nick Chubb.
- [09:53]
C
It defies all logic.
- [09:55]
B
Last year, he tied Christian McCaffrey for the most 10 zone attempts in the NFL.
- [10:03]
A
Those are valuable for a running back. The difference between a 20, you know, the red zone. It doesn't matter if you're between the 20 and the, and the 12, but when you're inside the 10 zone, those are valuable.
- [10:15]
B
Yeah. Why'd you say the 20 and the 12?
- [10:17]
A
I was just throwing out an example. Okay, 20 and the 10.
- [10:20]
C
Well, because often you see a stat about a running back. He had this many carries in the red zone. I don't care if you say red zone and he's getting the carry from the 18. It's, it's just not, it's not even close to as valuable as a carry inside the 10.
- [10:34]
B
So with the red zone report, we're looking at 10 zone attempts. We're looking at five zone attempts. So inside the five yard line. But Christian McCaffrey had 3210 zone attempts. He ends up with 10 touchdowns. You've got Nick Chubb with 32 attempts. He ends up with four touchdowns.
- [10:51]
C
That's, that's not Great, Bob.
- [10:52]
B
Everybody near him in that opportunity metric.
- [10:56]
C
Look.
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B
Dalvin Cook, 31 attempts, 11 touchdowns. Zeke, 31 attempts, 11 touchdowns. Gurley, 29 attempts, 11 touchdowns. Here's Nick Chubb with a complete inability to go from 10 zone opportunity to the end zone. But what do we believe about Nick Chubb? He's a great running back.
- [11:15]
A
Yes.
- [11:16]
B
He also had a horrible, problematic offensive line last year. Something we talk over and over again about what the team has addressed this off season and, you know, Baker's opportunity to bounce back. But the efficiency wasn't there for Nick Chubb. Now, you might not make that an excuse for him if you thought the opportunities weren't coming this year. But his head coach is Kevin Stefanski. Dalvin Cook was second in these 10 zone attempts. We've seen him do this. Nick Chubb will be the goal line back.
- [11:49]
C
Right.
- [11:50]
B
Do you guys disagree with that contention at all?
- [11:52]
A
Not at all.
- [11:53]
C
I don't disagree with it. Funny is, as you're bringing it up now, now I'm thinking about it, like, what are the. What are the Browns look like if Nick Chubb was actually successful at the rate of the rest of the league? Like, how many more games do the Cleveland Browns win? What is. How different is the narrative?
- [12:12]
A
Right.
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C
If he's not.
- [12:13]
A
If he has six more touchdowns.
- [12:14]
C
Yeah. A lot of things are different for that team.
- [12:17]
B
Yeah. And so Even within the five zone, like I was saying, McCaffrey, 60% of the time he got into the end zone. Cook, 69%. Zeke, 83% of the time that he got the ball inside the five, he scored. And here's Nick Chubb at 37%. That almost seems like you have to be trying not to.
- [12:34]
C
Yeah.
- [12:34]
B
At 37%. The other takeaway, and I know you guys will be a huge fan of this.
- [12:40]
A
Yes, yes, I am.
- [12:42]
B
But it's. It's. It's the fact that Devonte Adams is still a beast.
- [12:47]
C
Tell me something I don't know.
- [12:49]
B
And despite being hurt, he was still. And we knew he was off the field, he was still third in the NFL and red zone targets, three behind Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas had 26. Despite those huge target numbers, which he was number three in the league, he only had four touchdowns.
- [13:08]
C
That is two red zone touchdowns.
- [13:10]
B
Red zone touchdowns. That's correct. Which is two fewer than any other outside wide receiver in that target range. So there were other guys. They had a great deal of red zone targets. Tyler Lockett had 24 of them. Julian Edelman had 23. Jarvis Landry had 22. All those guys scored more touchdowns than Devonte Adams. And Devonte Adams was arguably the most predictable touchdown scorer at the wide receiver position. Coming in. You know it's not Julio, right? It wasn't Michael Thomas coming in. It was devonte Adams. So there's really no reason he shouldn't be in that upper echelon of consideration other than you look at last year. You say he didn't score as much and he got beat up. So to me, that just kind of speaks to Adams was the same guy. Rogers has the same tendencies inside of the red zone, bing, bang, boom.
- [13:56]
C
Yes.
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B
Adams could easily be the number one.
- [13:59]
C
I totally agree with that.
- [14:00]
A
Yeah. I mean, Adams is just such a valuable wide receiver because, you know, he's the number one for Aaron Rodgers. But it's the touchdowns, it's the touchdowns that have always made him so valuable. And this data just shows it's. It's the. It's still going to be there.
- [14:15]
B
He's the number one. He's the wide receiver. 1. He's also the wide receiver. 2. Funches is a 3.
- [14:23]
C
Dare you overlook Alan Lazard yet again?
- [14:27]
A
Okay. Funches is the four.
- [14:28]
B
Functions is the four. I apologize. You're 100% right there.
- [14:31]
C
I accept your apology.
- [14:32]
B
I just. Any chance to make kind of make fun of Devin Funchus?
- [14:35]
A
Oh, yeah. You got to take it, don't you think? Aaron Jones is the four. We're playing the Devin s. Scrumptious sound effect.
- [14:47]
B
When else am I going to get.
- [14:48]
A
To play while we drop him to number five because he's clearly behind Aaron.
- [14:51]
B
Jones, right, In terms of target?
- [14:54]
A
Yeah.
- [14:54]
C
Yeah, probably.
- [14:55]
A
Yeah. Funches is five. Okay.
- [14:57]
B
Is he behind Mary Sternberg?
- [14:59]
C
Sternberg.
- [15:00]
A
Yes. Let's get him down to seven. Can we get him down to seven? All right. Am I up? Am I up with.
- [15:06]
B
I guess you should give us a tip now.
- [15:08]
A
All right, so for 2020, one of the things I look at every year, and you'll hear us talk pros and cons of strength of schedule. Right. In general, overarching thought of a generic strength of schedule tool is not helpful. Things are incorrect about assumptions. We need a lot of data. You know, a lot of people coming into the season, they look at a strength of schedule tool, and they look at those playoff matchups because they want to win it all. And so they're. They're looking at, you know, weeks 14, 15, 60, you know, who has the best matchup. And by that time, we're going to know who has the best matchup, and it's not going to be who we predicted in preseason. But where it does matter is two places for me. It's early season schedule for the quarterbacks and early season schedule for team defenses. The reason why is because unless you've got Pat Mahomes or Lamar Jackson or last year alone, the New England Patriots, you should be starting different players in those positions on a week to week basis more often than not. Especially for defenses. You're always starting someone based on the matchup and cycling through those. So when I'm at my draft, doesn't it make sense to look at, you know, you want to draft this great defense, right? Minnesota, very good defense. Well, when I'm looking at the strength of schedule tool, we have it tabbed, we've got it default to the entire season. Okay. Just so you can get a frame of reference for who appears to have a good schedule, bad schedule. We do have the playoffs on there. You could click it if you want to. It's there for you to look. You know, we've got a top 200 though I wouldn't use that either. But we were here for the people. But click that early season schedule and that will show those first four weeks. How are you going to get off to a good start or a bad start at the beginning of the season and specifically with those players that there are other options based on matchups. So here's some nuggets for 2020. This is what I saw when I went. I click early season and I'm looking at quarterbacks and you know, the streaming later round quarterback options. Here's two good options that were at the top of the list. Jared Goff and Josh Allen. We've talked about how bad Josh Allen's season schedule might be, but at the beginning of the year, Josh Allen, the New York jets, the Miami Dolphins and the Raiders are three of his first four games. That's fantastic. And with Jared Goff, you've got basically he's playing the NFC east, he's got the Eagles, he gets off to start with the Cowboys, whose defense is much worse and the Giants as three of his first four weeks. So I'm in on those guys. Whereas I've brought up Daniel Jones already and the fact that I like him as a breakout candidate in 2020. But there's no chance in the world I'm drafting him as my late round guy because you're not going to start him against Pittsburgh at Chicago and then the 49ers for his first three games. I don't have the confidence in that. But there's other Guys, Sam Darnold, another, another late round guy you hope takes that step forward. He's got Buffalo and the Niners and the Colts in those first three weeks. He's off my draft board. And Ryan Fitzpatrick, I love when I could put Ryan Fitzpatrick in my lineup. I do it because, you know, you can end up with those four touchdown, 400 yard crazy games. But he's starting at New England and then Buffalo to start the season. So he's off my draft.
- [18:46]
B
He's a full no go.
- [18:47]
A
He's a full no go. And then for defenses you've got, I mean, this is unfortunate or fortunate, depending on your perspective, but the Patriots, the Ravens and the 49ers, three of the best defenses, they get off to really nice schedule. So if, if you're in that, you know, second to last round and you get your, your choice of those teams, you can pick the ones that are going to help you win early. Whereas Minnesota, really good defense, they, they're going to play against Green Bay and the, the Colts and the Titans, teams that don't turn the ball over and, and Green Bay plays Minnesota and the Saints and the Falcons, high powered offenses in those first couple of weeks. So that's how I like to use the strength of schedule. I personally use it every single year with those two positions going into my drafts.
- [19:37]
B
Well, and a lot of the times, you know, part of what we look at in ranking players for your draft is the tier type of mentality where there are players very, very comparable. So you need a reason to draft one over the other. They might be in the same tier. Things like that early season schedule may tip the scales for that decision. Same with risk and Risk ratings. All right, Mike, you don't get to talk.
- [20:04]
C
No, that's all right.
- [20:05]
A
Get body.
- [20:06]
B
Not yet. That is because I want to thank today's sponsor and I want to thank them from the heart because, look, Father's Day is coming up. Y'all got dads out there.
- [20:20]
C
Yeah.
- [20:20]
B
And you. And you want to give them something that is very special.
- [20:23]
C
What if I just want to buy myself something special?
- [20:26]
A
You're a dad.
- [20:27]
B
You're a dad. Yeah. That's totally fine because I think I've grilled out more over the last, like, five days than I ever have in my entire life. We're talking about Omaha Steaks. Omaha Steaks is a great gift to yourself or to your dad. The best steaks, huge variety of other favorites directly to your door. They have a variety of Father's Day packages that include world famous steaks. Burgers, franks, sausages. Perfect for grilling pork, poultry, side dishes, those caramel apple tartlets.
- [20:57]
A
Jason, there's nothing I've had there that's not genuinely awesome. They don't have hot dogs, they have franks.
- [21:07]
C
How have you not had?
- [21:08]
B
They're unbelievable.
- [21:09]
A
And they're unbelievable.
- [21:10]
B
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- [21:36]
C
Mmm.
- [21:36]
B
There are many packages available, perfect for dad. They're all ready to be shipped straight to his door for Father's Day. Visit omahasteaks.com type footballers in the search bar to shop for Father's Day today.
- [21:45]
C
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- [22:01]
B
And I was just going to throw in. I got the nose hair ear hair trimmer the other day from Manscaped. From Manscaped. Unbelievable.
- [22:10]
A
Yeah, it's really nice.
- [22:11]
C
Look, they know what they're doing. They know how to get rid of body hair. That's what.
- [22:14]
B
My nose has never been better manicured.
- [22:17]
C
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- [23:03]
B
You know what they call the nose hair trimmer?
- [23:05]
C
No. No. What do they call that one?
- [23:07]
B
The weed whacker.
- [23:08]
C
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. That makes sense. The problem with nose hairs that I have found, at least, I mean, Amongst many is every. It doesn't matter. The last time I trim my nose hair, if a thought pops up in my head of like, I probably need to trim my nose, they instantly.
- [23:25]
B
I don't.
- [23:26]
C
They just fly out. I could have shaved yesterday.
- [23:28]
B
The older and they're just there, the faster your nose hair grows.
- [23:31]
C
What.
- [23:31]
B
What is the deal with that, Judge? What's the deal?
- [23:34]
A
Okay, real quick.
- [23:35]
B
I don't know.
- [23:36]
A
Just so you guys are aware, and this isn't just for YouTube, but anyone at home, once you have the weed whacker, you just say, I don't get nose hair. You just straight lie, you don't. I don't have any nose hair at all.
- [23:49]
B
Well, look, I was a little afraid to stick it up there the first time because, I mean, it's a piece of machinery up in your nose.
- [23:55]
C
Sure.
- [23:56]
B
It was no big deal. It was perfect. Yeah. All right. All right, Mike, Mike, you're up with ultimate draft tip. All right, no nose hair for your draft. That's the tip.
- [24:07]
C
I am off kiltered over here thinking about my nose hairs, which now I have to trim. Because you thought about it. The part of the UDK that I want to highlight the video profiles. Jason mentioned it at the beginning of the show. He's so tired. Because we've been. We have been recording these things nonstop. There are over 100 players that we have a video profile. Because here's the thing. You're looking at our rankings. You're looking at numbers. These numbers can't craft an argument.
- [24:33]
B
You need some context.
- [24:34]
C
They can't give you our opinion on this player. And yes, you're listening to this podcast. You're hearing our opinion on players all the time. Thank you for subscribing. Thank you for enjoying the show. But there might be a very specific player that you want to hear. All three of us give a quick take about this player, and boom, it's right there in the video profile. All three of us. As we're going through the process, we all learn things about these players from my two colleagues here. Like they'll give a stat. Maybe I haven't thought of a narrative or something, a way to look at this player. That what they've done, what they could possibly do, and it will change how I think about a player.
- [25:14]
A
I think that the most learning experience through making the ultimate draft kit is the creation of those videos. I mean, that's what Mike's talking about when. When we're in here diving deep and adding context and all three of us looking at every Single player. I walk away from each one really having a much more firm understanding of the range of outcomes. What I personally believe what the most likely, least likely end results are going to be.
- [25:46]
C
You can grab the mobile app which you get as part of the UDK subscription. You're going to be on the potty eventually. And you, what do you, what are you going to do? Learn some more, learn another TikTok dance. You're going to look at, go put some likes on IG or you're going to get ready for your draft. And when you if especially look, if you're in a public restroom, turn that volume way up. Let, let everyone know.
- [26:10]
A
Yeah. Make the world a smarter place. I totally agree, Mike. Thanks.
- [26:15]
B
And some of the players, I mean, to be honest, they might help get things moving, right.
- [26:20]
A
It needs to be flushed down.
- [26:22]
B
I mean, diary, there's some season, I mean, some players had seasons that were, you know, flush worthy. So it was already my favorite part of the udk.
- [26:31]
C
But now, now that, now that it's on the potty.
- [26:34]
A
There you go. Yeah.
- [26:35]
B
All right. All right. Here's my second ultimate draft tip. We've had the consistency charts as part of the DraftKit for a couple of years, but we've taken steps to really improve the way they function. It's more of a snapshot tool at this point. And what I'm talking about, if you don't know what they are, it is a one quick glance way to look at the season, look at all the different players from last year and really get a gauge on, on where they finished each and every week. And we color code it. So if you're in, you know, you had a top five week, you're a certain color, top 10, top 20, and you can look at players like Christian McCaffrey and it's just covered in green because each and every week you're not getting variance in that production, you're getting consistency. What you can do now with the, with the consistency charts, with the snapshot tool is you can grab a small chunk of the season, first few games, middle of the season, after the buy, last five, whatever the case may be.
- [27:34]
C
Right.
- [27:34]
B
And it will not only show you just that part of the season and how these players performed, but it will rank them. You'll see how they ranked in that span. And you can actually, you know, through that filtering, you get a good idea of players that, for example, ended the season on a tear, right. They had a really strong back half of the year. And while your league mates are spending all of their Time looking at that end of season ranking, you know, 17 weeks, you can look at a smaller sample size and maybe find some insight, find some things. You know, there's a lot of rookies, they might take a little while to get going, but you can get a.
- [28:12]
C
Picture, try and take out a stretch of a player. You know they were hurt, you know that when they came back they were still dealing with an injury and it's clear when they were actually healthy again. And so you're not going to hold those, those injury games against them, find out how they like Barkley. Barkley. It's a weird year for Barkley, but then if you look at once he was finally healthy, you're like, oh yeah.
- [28:35]
B
Oh yeah, he's Saquon.
- [28:36]
C
You Saquon Barkley. There's no need to be concerned.
- [28:38]
B
So I sorted it by week eight on and I wanted to pull some insights out for you from week eight on. Back half of the year, Daniel Jones, he was the quarterback six in points per game in that span.
- [28:53]
C
He can put up big ones.
- [28:54]
B
That's a pretty profound number. Points per game, QB6, Melvin Gordon, somebody that we've debated on this show a lot. You know, you kind of look at last year with this, you know, he didn't start the year, the contract, it's just got stink all over it. He was the running back 10 in points per game from week eight on. And then this one, which, you know, if there's one player that we disagree a lot on this show, we don't disagree about the potential of Calvin Ridley. We talk about him like, you know, this, this coming year could really be the breakout season. The Chris Godwin season will be. Yeah, I mean he's in our breakouts in the udk. Spoiler alert. You just got that for free. But Calvin Ridley was the wide receiver 8 in points per game. So that was a breakout from weeks eight. From week eight on last year, it just wasn't. You know, when you look at the total season and where he finished, it wasn't wide receiver 8. So those are some insights on the good side. On the other side, couple of negatives. If you look from week eight on, Nick Chubb, who finished the year as the running back 14, he was the running back 25 in that span.
- [30:06]
C
He got careemed.
- [30:08]
B
Yeah. And then Allen Robinson, this was a surprise.
- [30:12]
C
Don't say this one, but just sorting.
- [30:14]
B
It, filtering it by that back half of the year, he finished as the wide receiver 10, but he was the wide receiver 23 over the back half of the year. So how does that make you feel, Mike?
- [30:24]
C
It sounds like he was just so awesome at the beginning of the year and he could probably do that for a whole season.
- [30:31]
B
Okay, that's one way you can interpret the data is Mike's very rose colored Allen Robinson way. But, you know, I didn't approach this with any biases. I approached it looking for outliers and players that as I'm scrolling down, I'm going, oh, Alan Robinson, what you doing way down there at wide receiver 23, despite finishing the year where you did. So it's kind of neat to be able to pull out those little insights and take advantage of them in your draft.
- [30:55]
A
Yeah. And I would just add to that, not just the stretches, but just seeing a player can finish somewhere and not help your team, he can hurt your team often. I love just looking at that tool and saying, I'm between these two guys in my draft. Let me pull that up and be like, oh, this one is just, he's not going to hurt me. Two out of every three games to get that end of season ranking. And a shout out to our man Brooks, who is the originator. I always got to give you a shout out, Brooks, because you are the originator of that tool. You created it for yourself for your drafts. And I was like, this thing's awesome. I'm stealing it.
- [31:29]
B
I had completely forgotten that.
- [31:30]
A
Yeah.
- [31:31]
B
Well, thank you for bringing that up.
- [31:32]
A
No, thank you for the originality in creating it because it's a tool I have used to make myself better at fantasy every year. So for that, you're not fired yet. My next, my next ultimate draft tip here, something I absolutely love and I'm going to give a couple pieces of insight. I've learned a lot in our injury report. You forget guys that were injured. Now we know the, you know, the big names, right? AJ Green missed a season. What's his injury status? How's he coming back? How's he looking right now? But there's like Mark Ingram or Evans and Godwin or Jarvis Landry. Like, you forget that these guys ended the season injured. And I, you know, it's, it's nice to read through that report and remind myself like, okay, this guy's coming off of this or this guy was dealing with this. Now he's not. But here's the three biggest takeaways that I see. And Matthew Betts, he's one of the best around at coming up with, you know, the quality results from, you know, a medical perspective when it comes to injuries and fantasy football. He's a board certified orthopedic physical therapist. He knows his stuff.
- [32:42]
B
He's the bets.
- [32:43]
A
He's. Oh yeah, that's good. He's the bets.
- [32:47]
C
My.
- [32:47]
A
It's not good.
- [32:48]
C
Look, Matthew, I'm sorry.
- [32:50]
A
Oh, he's doing a cartwheel right now. Anyways, he's the bets. He's the best around. Yes. No one's ever going to bring him down. But here are the three. When I read that stuck out for you. Stuck out for me? Illuminated, you know, challenged my preconceived notions. First was Big Ben. Big Ben was injured in week two and he had kind of that, that, that baseball injury, right. That elbow. That's very rare for football in baseball. Pitchers average recovery time to get back on the field is about 17 months.
- [33:23]
C
Okay.
- [33:23]
A
And he was injured in week two. So you've seen him throwing the ball right now. You've seen him out there, you know, with juju looking and when you, when you read the whole write up on Big Ben, you can see the concerns. You could see where he should be. And it's, it's illuminating because he's one of those cases where you have to say, am I going in on Big Ben or am I not? Another player is Darius Geiss, who's been injured once, twice, three times. The lady.
- [33:57]
C
His body does not like football.
- [33:59]
A
His body does not like football. He had his ACL injury and if you remember the crazy recovery that he had, right, an acl, people come back from it all the time. But he had to suffer with all of the disease and the issue of not recovering through the acl. So he comes back on a way longer timeline and then re. Injures a knee. But it's an MCL injury. When I was reading through Betts, you know, write up, he thinks that that MCL is a blessing in disguise because the MCL is going to basically be healed. That's not something he needed surgery for. He just need a little time off. But by that injury, it allowed him to rest. The ACL recovery, which, you know, he was pushing that timeline. So what ends up happening is for the first time in his career, he's basically coming in at his healthiest. He's worried about his long term, but he believes that Darius Geist is coming in at 100% healthy right now and he's got the opportunity to win this job. So I know we've discussed Darius guys as like, is this, is this a guy who is going to have an opportunity? You two both are pretty much out. It's a Crowded backfield, there's a ton of guys.
- [35:16]
C
I'm out from the perspective of Will he, will he actually be given the opportunity? I mean, he probably still is the best runner on that team, but it's a new coaching staff, it's new people. So that's where I'm more concerned. But it's good to know that at least the body of Darius guy should be good to go.
- [35:38]
A
And now the biggest one to me, Alshon Jeffrey. I'm going to actually read some of the write up here so you get an example of what you're seeing. Alshon Jeffrey suffered a sprain in his right foot in week 14 which required season ending Lisfranc surgery, which he believes will significantly affect Jeffrey in 2020. One specific study that looked at NFL players coming off Lisfranc surgery found that just over 80% of players did return to the field, but it took an average of 10 months. Jeffrey's surgery occurred in December, indicating it's extremely unlikely he is ready for week one. That same study also found that offensive players performed far worse than defensive players after surgery. And in general, and all players in the study showed a 21% reduction in performance from their first season back to injury. So you've got an old off injured Alshon coming back on a short timeline and this is one that, you know, I was not aware that the timeline was that rushed here.
- [36:37]
B
Does that change your perspective not just on Alshon, but on Jalen Rager or opportunities on the outside for somebody else?
- [36:43]
A
Yeah, for. I mean, you know, we talk about how Ertz is always the king of the opportunity when wide receivers go down. Maybe Ertz is a little bit safer than we thought. Or Rager has more opportunity coming in at the start of the season and maybe it's the beginning of the end for Alshon. But you know, those type of insights are so valuable because I'm not a doctor. I mean, I know you all think, you know, I've got an honorary doctor.
- [37:05]
B
To believe that you were at times.
- [37:07]
A
Yeah, but Matthew, Beth, you do believe.
- [37:10]
C
You could be a doctor?
- [37:11]
A
I know for a fact I could be a doctor. It would just take a lot of schooling and going. I mean, I could definitely be a doctor.
- [37:19]
C
Wasn't there a question you answered once about could you perform open heart surgery and somehow you had an actual percentage that was not below one?
- [37:28]
A
No. No.
- [37:30]
C
Am I remembering that incorrectly?
- [37:31]
A
I believe that was the question between whether you could perform an open heart surgery. Land a plane.
- [37:36]
C
Oh, of course.
- [37:37]
A
And there's no chance if I perform an open heart surgery, you're just dead. It's 100% kill rate. I mean, I can't. I can't do anything for you, but I can land that plane for sure.
- [37:48]
B
The. The heart surgery one would be kind of one of those situations where what do I do with my hands? You. You wouldn't know what to do next.
- [37:55]
A
I'd open them up and I go, all done. Let's. Let's close them. Let's close them up. Because there's nothing good.
- [38:02]
B
You would be the master of the placebo effect surgery.
- [38:05]
A
Exactly.
- [38:05]
B
Because they do that sometimes, right?
- [38:07]
C
I would just get stuck in the wash area. Like, every time they, you know, I wash my hands and they're gonna put my gloves on. I would, like, rub my face real fast.
- [38:15]
B
Oh, I gotta wash it.
- [38:16]
C
Oh, sorry, guys. I'll get it this time.
- [38:18]
B
Sir, it's been eight hours.
- [38:20]
A
Hands for eight hours.
- [38:21]
B
Can we get another doctor?
- [38:22]
C
And that's when you. Oh, I've timed out. Sorry, guys.
- [38:27]
B
Shift change. All right, so, Mike, do you have one more?
- [38:31]
C
Yeah, I got one more feature that it's. We talk about improving the ultimate draft kit all the time. Well, we have. We figured out a way. I think we started this maybe halfway through last year, so it's still very new. And people may not have noticed this, but we give you a free preview to the Foot Clan, AKA the Footcast, that we put out every single week for our supporters on JoinTheFoot.com. you get in there and you get access. You can listen to that podcast you want. Do you want more fantasy footballers? Well, inside the udk, there it is. You can. You can test it out. You can see how much you enjoy this extra episode. I was gonna say you can see if maybe you think it's worth it, but that's just a dumb thing to say because of course it's worth it. It's just how. What level are you gonna actually enjoy this podcast? But you can't get enough football. You can't get enough fantasy football analysis.
- [39:31]
B
So might as well get an extra episode.
- [39:33]
C
So right there inside your udk, you get a free preview of an extra episode.
- [39:39]
B
Yeah, and I would also throw out there. I mean, we. We've got target share reports that have been very valuable to us during the construction of all those videos. The player profile videos. Yep. Seeing what teams are throwing the ball, you know, at the highest percentage to the tight end position or to the wide receiver help inform predictions for the upcoming year. All the tiers and all the other, you know, reception perception Lots of great breakdowns in there. I like to. Here's a hot tip for reception perception. I like to find players I hate and then find a reception perception chart that backs up. That backs up my viewpoint.
- [40:12]
A
Yes. Confirmation bias.
- [40:13]
B
Confirmation bias.
- [40:15]
A
Things you can do as a fancy football owner. You really want to make sure you confirm whatever you already believe.
- [40:22]
B
Well, as long as Matt Harmon confirms it for me.
- [40:24]
A
Right. You're not, you're just being confirmed.
- [40:27]
B
Thank you.
- [40:27]
A
Otherwise, you know, close your eyes.
- [40:30]
B
All right. You guys want to do a little mailbag?
- [40:32]
C
Sure.
- [40:35]
A
Mailbag. Mailbag.
- [40:39]
B
Braden in California, the footballers. Oh, this is. He's, he's doing one of those things where he kind of pats us on the head to start it.
- [40:47]
C
I see what you're doing.
- [40:48]
B
The footballers are obviously top tier football analysts.
- [40:52]
C
Obviously.
- [40:53]
B
And experts. But would they successfully be able to coach a high school football team? If so, who is the head coach? The OC and the DC this is pretty incredible timing for Braden because. I'm not even joking. I asked myself this question yesterday.
- [41:09]
A
Wow.
- [41:10]
B
You want to know why? I did? Because I watched Remember the titans with my 8 year old and I watched. Which is a great movie. It's very entertaining. But no, I don't think I could successfully coach a high school football team.
- [41:26]
C
I think I.
- [41:28]
B
Unless I could delegate all of the real play calling. But that's the instructional master.
- [41:32]
C
That's where you can.
- [41:33]
B
Like I could take the kids to Gettysburg and give them a Gettysburg speech about teamwork.
- [41:38]
C
That's where you pull up Madden. You write down some notes. You just get a couple formations there. There's your, your defensive formation.
- [41:47]
B
There are so many interests.
- [41:48]
A
So the answer is no.
- [41:49]
C
Well, no. And I would be that coach. I would find my best player and he'd be the wide receiver and it would be. Throw it to that guy.
- [41:57]
B
Oh, you go to the. Well, over and over and over and over and over again.
- [42:00]
A
Yeah. Like Sean Payton does, like Andy Reid does. If you've got a play that works, just keep doing it until they stop you.
- [42:06]
C
Yes. There's, there's really no reason not to. Like, there's no moral rules about doing the same play over and over. You should never, ever feel bad if the same play works.
- [42:17]
B
Always do. When I play Madden, I'm like, I want a well balanced offense. And Mike's like, I'm going to throw it to Tyree, kill every play and you're going to lose. So. But if you're going to break up the offense and defense, I'll give Mike the defense because we, you know, he played linebacker on our flag team, so.
- [42:37]
C
I have at least a little bit of experience.
- [42:39]
B
And then, you know.
- [42:40]
A
Well, if that's the case, then I'm going to make you the offensive coordinator, Andy. Not just to make myself the head coach, because you're, you know, you are a quarterback for our championship flag football team. Yes.
- [42:54]
C
Never forget that.
- [42:55]
A
No, and I won't.
- [42:56]
C
I'm talking to the people.
- [42:58]
A
Right. And they won't. But you, you know, you know, offenses very well. As the head coach, I'm going to really rely on you two to do all of it. And I will be the motivational speaker.
- [43:09]
B
Yeah, no, that's not bad. That's not bad. They're the most Jon Gruden of the three of us, so.
- [43:15]
C
Yeah. How do you like that?
- [43:18]
B
I take that it's better than gays. All right. Joel has a question for us. He's a Seahawks fan in the heart of Niners territory.
- [43:26]
C
Oh. Stay strong, Joel.
- [43:29]
B
Smooth routes in the fourth round. So you've got Kenny Golladay in the fourth or Mark Andrews in the 13th round. What would you do there? Mark Andrews for essentially free and a half point redraft league or Kenny G in the fourth, which is a great value.
- [43:46]
A
I'm definitely in here on Mark Andrews. I see him as the third tight end, and if I can get him for free and forget that position, I think if I look at what wide receiver I could replace in the fourth round and the difference between that and Kenny Golladay versus what tight end I can get, am I going to. If I want to get Mark Andrews, like tight end, I'm probably going to have to pay up for George Kittle, you know, or Kelsey, and spend a second on those players or, you know, something like that. So I'm very much in on Mark Andrews.
- [44:20]
C
But wouldn't you think it's better then that you can get a wide receiver.
- [44:23]
B
One in the fourth and then overspend for the.
- [44:26]
C
And then. And then get Travis Kelsey in the second, even if you feel like you're overpaying?
- [44:30]
A
No, because you're discounting the fact that I get another player in the second.
- [44:34]
B
Yeah.
- [44:34]
A
So I'm getting a great running back plus two players.
- [44:38]
B
Yeah. So I do wonder, though, if this is yet another instance where Kenny G is not getting the respect he deserves. Because if you replace Kenny Golladay in the fourth with some of the other upper echelon, you know, Julio Jones in the fourth round or Devonte Adams or Chris Godwin, does your answer change?
- [44:56]
A
Well, yeah, I Think. I mean, if you're talking about Julio, where, you know, I've pretty much got a lock for the most receiving yards in the league, close to the most.
- [45:05]
C
Targets and receptions, and I have Kenny Golladay one spot behind Julio Jones.
- [45:09]
B
That's what I mean. Is it maybe in our heads we're not making that connection.
- [45:12]
C
Yeah. I'm taking Kenny Golladay.
- [45:15]
A
I think part of this is what you believe about Mark Andrews as well. Do you see him as someone that is.
- [45:20]
C
I do see that.
- [45:22]
B
If that's kelsey in the 13th, that's my pick. But in this situation, I'll go Kenny G. Okay.
- [45:27]
A
I will definitely take Andrews.
- [45:29]
C
You and I stand alone.
- [45:31]
A
I stand with my man.
- [45:32]
B
That's fine. I mean, that's why Mark Andrews is great. Part of the target share report. 42% of all targets in Baltimore went to the tight end and Hayden Hurst.
- [45:42]
A
Is gone dealing with injury.
- [45:44]
B
Nick Boyle is going to be a baller.
- [45:46]
C
Yeah. Someone else will.
- [45:47]
B
Number one overall tight end, Nick Boyle. All right, here's a dynasty trade question from Alex. In the United Kingdom.
- [45:54]
C
Bonjour.
- [45:55]
A
Oh, bonjour.
- [45:56]
B
The United Kingdom, that does not exist.
- [45:58]
A
It's not Ireland. Northern Ireland, but definitely not all of Ireland. Everybody knows that.
- [46:02]
B
That's going to come up every time we say the UK now, as it should. Much, much.
- [46:07]
C
Yes, yes. World must know.
- [46:10]
B
I still getting DMS about it. I'm still getting messages about it.
- [46:14]
A
People are passionate.
- [46:15]
B
And you know what? They're never like. They're never very nice. They're never like, you know, just so you know, it's always like, learn to read a book or something. It's like, you guys need to.
- [46:26]
C
Yes. Go back to school.
- [46:28]
A
I mean, this is one of. One of the most important things to us.
- [46:31]
C
We could go back to school and we still wouldn't know this because they don't teach that here.
- [46:36]
B
And we were still kind of right.
- [46:38]
A
Yes. Thank you.
- [46:39]
B
I mean, not that I want to, like, mostly wrong.
- [46:42]
A
But Northern Ireland is in the uk.
- [46:45]
B
That's. According to my sources. That's.
- [46:48]
A
Does this mean that, like, Irish Alex.
- [46:50]
C
Might be living in Northern Ireland right now?
- [46:51]
B
Do Irish people then hate the Northern Islanders?
- [46:54]
A
That's why.
- [46:54]
C
Yeah, that's. That's the part we probably don't want.
- [46:57]
B
Yeah, never mind, Never mind, never mind, never mind.
- [46:59]
A
Moving on. Fantasy football. Where's the question?
- [47:01]
C
But what I learned from that is our international audience is actually pretty strong.
- [47:06]
A
Yeah. Thank you.
- [47:07]
C
Bonjour.
- [47:07]
A
Bonjour.
- [47:08]
B
And incredible and super passionate. Amazing about the uk. All right. Alex in the UK says is a Michael Thomas for a Kyler Murray trade a sensible thing to do? This is a two quarterback dynasty, not one quarterback.
- [47:22]
C
Okay.
- [47:22]
B
I think Murray can be huge, but is it worth giving up Michael Thomas? Michael Thomas in a league like that?
- [47:28]
C
No, no, I wouldn't.
- [47:30]
A
No.
- [47:31]
B
Is there a quarterback's name that I could have said that would have changed your opinion if I had said Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson?
- [47:36]
A
Pat Mahomes is the only one that I think is, you know, and Lamar Jackson, those two guys are in consideration. But if I was in a super flex league and I've, you know, got the 101 and let's just for this argument say Chris McCaffrey's off the board and I would draft Michael Thomas ahead of either of those quarterbacks.
- [48:00]
B
All right, Michael in Dublin. Don't worry. Dublin, Ohio.
- [48:04]
A
Oh, thank goodness.
- [48:06]
B
Don't say that, Jason.
- [48:09]
A
I'm just saying I don't have to get trapped with.
- [48:11]
B
Don't say that. Michael in Dublin, Ohio. When do you guys bump the show up to more than twice a week?
- [48:20]
A
Great question. It's right around the corner. We are going in July, we go to three, and then in August we are every single day, five times a week and that runs all the way through December.
- [48:35]
C
Or if you have the draft kit.
- [48:37]
B
Instantaneous right now, a week. All right, last one. Joshua in White Lake, Michigan. Do you know where that is? Brooks? I don't offhand, actually, no. All right, he's. Brooks is from Michigan. I figured he knew his.
- [48:50]
A
Read a book.
- [48:52]
B
James Connor or Christian Kirk in a PPR dynasty League. So this says a lot about, you know, Christian Kirk. What do you believe about his dynasty prospects? You know, I'm not super jazzed about them, but I am not super excited about James Connor long term in a dynasty either. So I think it's Kirk.
- [49:10]
A
This is not close. This is not close at all. To me it's Christian Kirk by Christian Kirk over the next six, seven years is going to have a fine enough career. He's going to have fantasy relevance. He's not a superstar player. But James Conner over the next five years probably has this year of being relevant.
- [49:31]
B
You agree with that, Mike? Because I tend to think that the shelf life is very short for.
- [49:35]
C
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I'm taking Christian Kirk here. I just was trying to formulate in my head like, is there a way where it's possibly James Connor? Because if James Conner has a really good year, I think that the Steelers would re up him because he wouldn't demand a lot or he could try and get a huge contract. But I think that James Conner would understand the market. The market out there is going to be low. He's, he's a huge injury risk. Why not just re up Pittsburgh?
- [50:05]
B
No, no, no. I'm not trying to just say that's not going to happen. It's just once you make the lower financial commitment to a player, you are staying under the lower obligation of using that player. So Connor, they might like him. If he has a big season, he's going to want more money. And if he has a smaller season and takes less money, he's, they have less obligation to him. More, you know, McFarlane could be more of a, of that situation. It just seems, yeah, seems like there's a tough pathway. I'll take Christian Kirk, that's all.
- [50:31]
C
Especially in ppr.
- [50:32]
A
Yeah, I've always seen Christian Kirk as a comp to like Sterling Shepard. Not a guy that you know is going to win you a league. But he's, he's solid and I'll take that type of a career over an injury prone running back with a very short shelf life ahead of him.
- [50:48]
B
All right, well, that does it for today's episode of the podcast. One final reminder. After the ultimate draft tips on today's show, head over To Ultimate Draft Kit.com get in on the pre order. It releases on Monday and we're so excited about this. I mean it really has been a 9 to 5 thing UDK centric for a very long time here since the NFL draft and we're excited to bring it to you and you know, we're going to keep updating it constantly. It's always going to, you know, opinions, depth charts, all those things change and you're going to be able to log in and see those changes reflected in the system and stay one step ahead of your league mate. So that is it for today's episode of the show. Appreciate you. We'll be back next week.
- [51:36]
C
Oh man, let's. Jason, we need to get some sleep.
- [51:39]
A
I serum seriously.
- [51:40]
C
See you next week. Goodbye.
- [51:45]
A
Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the ffballers.
- [51:59]
B
And one more reminder. Omaha Steaks will deliver the world's best steaks and a huge variety of your favorites directly to your dad's door in time for Father's Day. Make Father's Day simple this year. Send dad the gift he really wants. Perfectly aged Omaha steaks and get free shipping and free steak cut bacon with select packages. Visit omahasteaks.com type footballers in the search bar and see a variety of their amazing packages.