Ultimate Draft Tips + Stunning Stats

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary

Title: Fantasy Footballers - Fantasy Football Podcast
Episode: Ultimate Draft Tips + Stunning Stats
Release Date: May 30, 2019
Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright
Description: An in-depth exploration of fantasy football strategies, player rankings, and analytical insights to elevate your draft game.

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1. Introduction and Show Setup

The episode kicks off with a lively introduction from the hosts, setting an enthusiastic tone for the forthcoming discussions. Mike Wright humorously promotes the Ultimate Draft Kit, highlighting its comprehensive features designed to enhance draft preparation.

• Mike Wright [00:06]:
  "How can I be so confident? Because I used the Ultimate Draft Kit from the Fantasy Footballers Man. It updates all off season, so I never worry about using old busted information."

Andy Holloway takes the lead in welcoming listeners, accompanied by Jason Moore and their producer, Brooks, who brings an element of humor to the introduction.

• Andy Holloway [01:13]:
  "Welcome into the show. Thursday, May 30, the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Back again. Mike is here. Jason, present and accounted for."

2. Promotion of the Ultimate Draft Kit

A significant portion of the podcast is dedicated to promoting the Ultimate Draft Kit, a pivotal tool for fantasy football enthusiasts. The hosts discuss its benefits, including updated offseason data, consistency charts, auction values, and full projections.

• Mike Wright [00:06]:
  "Consistency charts, auction values, full projections. Oh, baby, this thing's got it all."

Brooks emphasizes the kit's role as a research tool, encouraging listeners to engage with the data to make informed decisions rather than relying solely on the hosts' recommendations.

• Brooks [03:38]:
  "The game of fantasy football is not fun. If we say, hey, play this player and you, oh, sure, click, put him in the starting lineup. We want your brain thinking about the game."

3. Player Rankings and Updates

a. David Montgomery's Rising Rank

Andy Holloway discusses his changing perspective on David Montgomery, pointing out the increased opportunities in the Chicago Bears' backfield due to roster changes.

• Andy Holloway [06:08]:
  "David Montgomery just has an enormous opportunity because of Jordan Howard's absence... He has to do something with it, but it's his for the taking."

b. Derek Henry's Potential Drop

Jason Moore shares his evolving view on Derek Henry, suggesting that despite expectations of high carry counts, Henry may not secure a top 10 ranking due to limited involvement in the passing game.

• Jason Moore [10:14]:
  "I think he'll get work. But I don't think he can be a top 10 back this year."

c. Kerryon Johnson's Ascension

Brooks highlights Kerryon Johnson's increasing value, attributing it to his involvement in the passing game and the Detroit Lions' commitment to a run-heavy offense.

• Brooks [11:57]:
  "Kerryon Johnson could end up as a top 10 running back... he was averaging four targets a game... adding the fact that he's very involved in the passing game."

4. NFL News Highlights

a. Buck Allen Signs with the Saints

The hosts briefly mention Buck Allen's signing with the New Orleans Saints, critiquing the team's strategy.

• Andy Holloway [15:04]:
  "Why? Because that's what people do, Mike. They in the offseason, they sign with different teams."

b. James Washington's Weight Loss

James Washington's notable weight loss is discussed, with Brooks humorously expressing a preference for wide receivers gaining weight.

• Brooks [15:58]:
  "I've been a vocal proponent on this show of. I like when my wide receivers gain weight."

c. Sleeper App Mention

The Episode mentions the Sleeper app, promoting its utility for fantasy league management.

• Andy Holloway [16:19]:
  "Check out the Sleeper app. Great platform for redraft, dynasty, for keeper leagues."

5. Ultimate Draft Tips

a. Market Share Analysis

Mike Wright delves into market share statistics, examining how individual players contribute to their team's total yards.

• Andy Holloway [18:30]:
  "Kenyon Drake had 34% of his team's running back yardage... Frank Gore was impeding Kenyon Drake's rushing yardage last year."

Key Discussions:

• Kenyon Drake & Caleb Belanger:
  Opportunities rise with Kenyon Drake expected to assume a larger share of the Bears' running game.

• Peyton Barber & Ronald Jones:
  Peyton Barber's high attempt percentage suggests potential regression, creating opportunities for Ronald Jones.

• Corey Davis:
  Despite high target percentages, Corey Davis's fantasy output has been disappointing, prompting evaluations of his true value.

b. Strength of Schedule

Jason Moore emphasizes the importance of assessing a team's strength of schedule, particularly for defense streaming strategies.

• Jason Moore [26:36]:
  "I prefer looking... early season schedule, the weeks one through four... Which defenses to hold and which to stream off the waiver wire."

c. Reception Perception with Matt Harmon

Brooks introduces Matt Harmon's Reception Perception methodology, which evaluates wide receivers based on their ability to create separation independently of their quarterbacks.

• Brooks [32:02]:
  "Matt Harmon... has developed a methodology that can take a look at wide receivers and see if they're actually a skilled wide receiver at creating separation independent of their quarterback."

Notable Examples:

• JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Antonio Brown:
  JuJu shows high touchdown rates in the red zone but struggles with deeper routes, whereas Antonio Brown excels across all route depths.

• Curtis Samuel vs. DJ Moore:
  Curtis Samuel is highlighted as a potential breakout candidate due to his improved route running and separation skills, positioning him as a strategic dynasty acquisition over the more popular DJ Moore.

d. Red Zone Statistics

Andy Holloway presents intriguing red zone stats, focusing on Alvin Kamara's efficient touchdown rates within the 10-yard line and contrasting them with Devonte Adams and Mike Evans.

• Andy Holloway [40:05]:
  "Alvin Kamara owned the 10 zone... 1010 zone touchdowns, that's second in the league."

• Jason Moore [42:17]:
  "Mike Evans had only six total red zone receptions last season. When you can turn in a season like he had with six red zone receptions..."

e. Consistency Charts

Jason Moore and Brooks discuss the importance of consistency charts in evaluating player performance variability. Tom Brady's declining consistency and O.J. Howard's steady performance are highlighted.

• Jason Moore [46:19]:
  "Tom Brady had a top 12 quarterback two times in the last 10 weeks of the season."

• Jason Moore [47:29]:
  "O.J. Howard had a higher consistency percentage of finishing in the top 12 on a weekly basis than Zach Ertz, George Kittle or Eric Ebron last year."

6. Conclusion and Final Promotions

The episode wraps up with final tips on utilizing the Ultimate Draft Kit's features, such as tiered rankings and cheat sheet creators. The hosts encourage listeners to adopt strategic drafting approaches to avoid "draft tilts" and make informed, calm decisions.

• Brooks [48:02]:
  "Players are grouped into tiers... Helps you separate yourself from the name where you freak out."

Andy Holloway announces a final push for preordering the Ultimate Draft Kit, highlighting its newly added features like custom scoring and a mobile app.

• Andy Holloway [52:15]:
  "We have a brand new cheat sheet creator that features tiers and your tiers are dynamically updated based on your scoring system."

Additional Promotions:

• PristineAuction.com Partnership:
  The hosts promote a deal with Pristine Auction, offering listeners $5 for signing up using the code "ballers."

• Brooks [54:18]:
  "Pristineauction.com when you sign up, which is totally free, if you use the registration code ballers, you get five bucks into your account for a future auction purchase."

Notable Quotes Summary

• Mike Wright [00:06]:
  "Consistency charts, auction values, full projections. Oh, baby, this thing's got it all."

• Andy Holloway [06:08]:
  "David Montgomery just has an enormous opportunity because of Jordan Howard's absence... He has to do something with it, but it's his for the taking."

• Jason Moore [10:14]:
  "I think he'll get work. But I don't think he can be a top 10 back this year."

• Brooks [32:02]:
  "Matt Harmon... has developed a methodology that can take a look at wide receivers and see if they're actually a skilled wide receiver at creating separation independent of their quarterback."

• Andy Holloway [40:05]:
  "Alvin Kamara owned the 10 zone... 1010 zone touchdowns, that's second in the league."

• Jason Moore [46:19]:
  "Tom Brady had a top 12 quarterback two times in the last 10 weeks of the season."

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Conclusion

This episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast offers a treasure trove of insights for fantasy managers, from detailed player evaluations and market share analyses to strategic drafting tips leveraging the Ultimate Draft Kit. The combination of statistical analysis, player performance consistency, and strategic tools equips listeners with the knowledge to make informed decisions and gain a competitive edge in their fantasy leagues.

For those looking to elevate their draft strategy, the Ultimate Draft Kit is presented as an indispensable resource, seamlessly integrating analytical prowess with practical application.

Transcript

[Mike Wright]

All right, all right, all right. It's almost that time of year, the time when I set the foundation for supreme and total dominance at my Fantasy Football draft. How can I be so confident? Because I used the Ultimate Draft Kit from the Fantasy Footballers Man. It updates all off season, so I never worry about using old busted information. Consistency charts, auction values, full projections. Oh, baby, this thing's got it all. You want to keep it 100 for your draft? Head to ultimatedraftkit.com and get your copy today.

[Jason Moore]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast coming to you from pristineauction.com studios with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, all right, all right. Welcome in. Welcome into the show. Thursday, May 30, the fantasy footballers Podcast. Back again. Mike is here. Jason, present and accounted for. I am Andy Holloway. Brooks, he's twisting the knobs and pulling the levers.

[Brooks]

He's back there doing nude bongos. Really? In honor of our good friend of the show.

[Andy Holloway]

Every year when the Ultimate Draft Kit releases, Brooks finds a need, finds it within himself to disrobe, play the bongos and scream for a couple of hours.

[Brooks]

So if you hear the. That's Brooks.

[Andy Holloway]

Brooks, how are we doing? Are you able to do the bongo thing and the producer thing at the same time?

[Brooks]

Oh, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Awesome.

[Brooks]

It's an exciting time.

[Andy Holloway]

It's an exciting time.

[Brooks]

I've never heard Brooks more excited about anything on this show except the time that we tossed him a nude bongo joke.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, he was in that.

[Brooks]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

10 out of 10.

[Andy Holloway]

10 out of 10 will play. Welcome in. Got a great show prepared for you. A good quick question. I think you guys will like my answer to it and then.

[Brooks]

Oh, I do.

[Andy Holloway]

In celebration of the Ultimate Draft Kit, we've got the Ultimate Draft tips on the show today, breaking down some very interesting, astute insights gleaned pulled from some of the data inside the Ultimate Draft Kit.

[Brooks]

Well, what's great about. We're showing how we use it, the Ultimate Draft Kit. Yes, it has our rankings, it has our full projections, but this thing is a research tool. We talk about it all the time on this show. We want you to be involved in the decision making. It's the game of fantasy football is not fun. If we say, hey, play this player and you, oh, sure, click, put him in the starting lineup. I mean, we want your brain thinking about the. The game, thinking about the analytics, trying to find the trends and the edge. So that's, that's part of why I am personally so proud of the Ultimate Draft Kit. Somebody can jump in there. Literally never look at my personal rankings, which you should because they're really, really good rankings.

[Andy Holloway]

Far better than a bongo playing monkeys. But rank players.

[Brooks]

But you could just there's so much substance to dive in for the research.

[Jason Moore]

Well and these, these tips today that we're giving on the show, these aren't just from the draft kit. These are from our months and months and months of diving deep. And like this is where we've been living. We've been living in this data.

[Andy Holloway]

Really, really cool insights. Ultimate Draft tips on the show today. This is your last chance to pre order the ultimate draft kit atultimate draft kit.com it releases on Saturday. Saturday, June 1st is the release date. This is the last chance for the discount. You get five bucks off to preorder. I mean that's the discount. So your last chance to do it. Very excited, very proud of what our team has done.

[Brooks]

If we could get a hold of the calendar man or the calendar gal, it's really unfortunate that it has to release on a Saturday for us trying to run a business. Could we just make sure that June 1st is always a weekday?

[Jason Moore]

I'm going to look at.

[Andy Holloway]

See, I thought you were going a different direction. I thought you were going to officially petition for June 1st to be made a national holiday. I would also really should have gone.

[Brooks]

I accept that as well.

[Andy Holloway]

So we're going to get into some of those insights information. It is the number one question we get about ultimate the ultimate draft kid each year is how do I practically use this to equip myself for the draft. So we'll address that on the show. Follow us on twitter at the FF Ballers. You can watch the show on YouTube. YouTube.com the Fantasy Footballers. Fortunately for you, Brooks is behind the camera.

[Brooks]

Fortunately for us.

[Andy Holloway]

All for us.

[Jason Moore]

Except for me.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Staring right towards the camera.

[Andy Holloway]

You're welcome. The least fortunate among impressive work though, Brooks. Oh, the Baskin Robbins paying off. Here's the quick question for the day. Who have you been changing your opinion on lately, player wise? I mean this is a long off season. There are lots of different pieces of information and coaches like to talk the talk about their players. And then the draft has happened and opportunities have risen for players based on injuries. You know, people going down. Isaiah Crowell.

[Brooks]

I like the use of the word opportunity.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh great. So you want me to start?

[Brooks]

Yes, I do.

[Andy Holloway]

Let's be clear.

[Jason Moore]

Say it.

[Andy Holloway]

My opinion on this player has changed. Not on his nickname.

[Jason Moore]

Say it.

[Andy Holloway]

David Moppertun. David Montgomery, running back, rookie Rookie running back from the Chicago Bears. I have been the lowest on him on the show. Not because I dislike David Montgomery. It's simply the fact that I had a belief, have a belief that, you know, it's going to be a multitude of running backs using the system. That being said, when you look at the landscape of NFL teams and opportunities, as you would call them opportunities, this.

[Jason Moore]

Is why he got the nickname.

[Andy Holloway]

There's just a lot of available carries for David Montgomery in Chicago and that's not the case for every player. Now someone like Miles Sanders, I think there's only 30, 40 carries available. When you look at who got carries last year and who's still on the team now, someone like Miles Sanders will take a bunch of opportunity because the players that took those carries, they, they're not good. You know, it was a matter of. And one of the insights that I'll bring up later in the show focuses on this component of market share, right. How much market share did different players take out of the backfield? But David Montgomery just has an enormous opportunity because of Jordan Howard's absence and because of what skill sets Tariq Cohen and, you know, the incumbents there have and they brought in Mike Davis and I've brought that up. And I don't know if consistency will be the name of the game for David Montgomery in the first half of the year, but everything presenting in Chicago says that the second half of the season looks like it's David Montgomery's for the taking. He has to do something with it, but it's his for the taking. And the fact that he can catch the ball, the fact that there are so many carries available to him, my opinion is changing. I have warmed. He has moved up my rankings a little bit. So David Montgomery is my, my choice for.

[Jason Moore]

I'll, I'll step to the plate next since I'm going the other direction.

[Andy Holloway]

To the plate, huh?

[Brooks]

When the plate, when I saw his name in there, I was so confused. It's like, how could you possibly rise this guy up even more in your rankings?

[Jason Moore]

No, no, no. It is in fact the opposite. It's a player I've been cooling on someone that coming into the off season, reading and researching everything I can from Tennessee beat writers, from the general manager and the head coach and the offensive line coach and the running back coach. It's going to. And I, and I believe it will be the Derek Henry show. And so I was very high and bullish that what we saw last year. And really, if you look at the career of Derek Henry it's been subpar for 90% of it. And then the last portion of last year, he was dominant. He was a fantasy champion winner for people. And so I came into this offseason pretty bullish on him. I still believe he will get the role. But as I statted every player out, every team looked at play rate, which is so important for fantasy football is like how many plays are each team going to get? What's their speed of play? Look, the more you want to run the ball, the more the clock will run and the slower your pace of play. And they're going to give him a lot of carries. But Derek Henry is not going to be as involved in the passing game as any other back with, you know, those high level of carry counts, other than maybe Sony Michelle. And this is not a team that I expect to score a ton of points. This is not a team I expect to have a fast pace of play. So if they're a slow down, try to, you know, Mike Vrabel as a defensive minded head coach, they want to run the ball, have good defense. They don't have a great quarterback in Marcus Mariota. He's going to get 270 plus carries. That's what I've got him down for.

[Andy Holloway]

I think that Tennessee fans right now would be very disappointed in the way that you're talking about that team, of course, saying that their quarterback's no good, saying that their offense isn't going to score a lot of points.

[Jason Moore]

Mario is fine, he's just not great.

[Andy Holloway]

But I think that the bigger point of what fantasy owners need from running backs is interesting here because very few running backs in football had a higher percentage of their team's receptions than Dion Lewis did last year. He is the pass catcher on that offense. They're not going to scheme Derek Henry to catch the ball. That's not going to change when you give 80%, 78, 79% of all receptions from the running back position goes to one guy. So he's capped in that regard. He has to score.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And look, I've got him down for nine touchdowns, 270 carries. When I put these numbers down, I was feeling really good about Derek Henry.

[Andy Holloway]

He just didn't end up as high as you thought.

[Jason Moore]

And then I look in a PPR or a half ppr. I mean, look, if you're in a standard league, great. But keep in mind you still, you know, look, if you don't get receptions, you don't get receiving yards. So it still matters in a standard.

[Brooks]

League, that's how that works.

[Jason Moore]

That is. But yeah, he's been falling down. My. You know, in my opinion, I was bullish on him. Now I'm like, okay, I'll take Henry. I think he'll get work. But I don't think he can be a top 10 back this year.

[Andy Holloway]

That was going to be my next question. So not in the top 10, Mike.

[Brooks]

So the player I am rising on and this is not a. I did. Jason. Jason, Just breathing. Calm down.

[Andy Holloway]

Will this help, Jay?

[Jason Moore]

It helps a lot.

[Brooks]

Doesn't help my cool setup that I had prepared.

[Andy Holloway]

Whoopsies.

[Brooks]

It's all right. It's Carry On Johnson.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, really?

[Brooks]

And this is. It's not like we were. I disliked him. We just. He was a great player. A strong running back too. I'm just coming more and more to. To terms with and being okay with the idea that Kerryon Johnson could end up as a top 10 running back. And it's precisely for the exact opposite of what you were talking about with. With Derek Henry is you forget how involved Kerryon Johnson actually was in the passing game and how good and how good he was. He was averaging four targets a game. If that's just across the entire season.

[Jason Moore]

And that.

[Brooks]

That doesn't even then take into account the ebbs and flows of. Well, Garrett Blunt was the primary running back for the first few weeks of the season. He was really splitting time so that that number can even go up. I certainly don't expect it to go down. But if it's just four targets a game, that's 62 targets. I mean, that's sensational for a. A full time leader of the. Of that running back core, which I fully expect Kerryon Johnson to be that. So just adding in the fact of I've, you know, even though we're in this every day, you forget things like how involved in the passing game. Carry On Johnson truly was. He's a special player. It certainly doesn't help that the team is coming out and saying we're a running team. We're a bunch of strong dudes. I don't necessarily agree with going with that for your offense in the year 2019, but that's where they're going. That's what they want to be. And the leader of that will be Kerryon Johnson. Then add into Stafford always dumps the ball off. I just. I'm coming to the place where the upside of Carry On Johnson is going to be well worth his average draft price.

[Jason Moore]

I'll take you by the hand, Mike, and I will welcome you aboard what's.

[Andy Holloway]

Funny about it is to come out and say this is a running football team. You have to understand the context of the Detroit Lions. This is probably the worst running football team in the last 20 years. They were even now they got deer. They were dead last in rushing two of the last four years. Now last year I think they were 23rd, which is like a huge improvement for Detroit.

[Jason Moore]

What year did Barry Sanders retire?

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, this has been. So to say you're a rushing football team. The statistical evidence. Look, it's one thing to say it right? Like Seattle said it and then Seattle did it.

[Brooks]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Detroit needs to say it and then do it. And it has to move the chains. If they can move the chains, the carry on will be able to sustain that level of expectation due to touchdowns. You're also going to need. You don't have concerns over Theo Riddick?

[Brooks]

No, I don't. Riddick will be there. He'll do his thing. But Carry on is going to be on the field so much.

[Andy Holloway]

It would be nice to see a healthy season out of Carry on and establish himself.

[Brooks]

To your point of you got to be able to do it. I mean, with that offensive line and Carry On Johnson skill set, I think they could have success being that type of a team.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. We are going to skip news today. We don't have a big bunch of stuff to say. Buck Allen signed with the Saints.

[Jason Moore]

Why?

[Andy Holloway]

Because that's what people do, Mike. They in the offseason, they sign with different teams.

[Brooks]

No, but I'm not asking Buck Allen why he signed with the Saints. I would love to sign with the Saints. I'm asking the Saints.

[Andy Holloway]

You want to know why are they doing pass protection? Experience. That's what I believe.

[Brooks]

I believe he will not be on this team.

[Andy Holloway]

Okay, well, that is a different take.

[Brooks]

It's there for now, a little bit.

[Andy Holloway]

Of high train news about James Washington dropping 15 pounds. Okay. There you go.

[Brooks]

People. People.

[Andy Holloway]

I wish I was.

[Brooks]

So when people ask me like, so is. Wait, is it you like that? And I've. Because I've been a vocal proponent on this show of. I like when my wide receivers gain weight. I like when running backs lose weight.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Brooks]

I don't like when a wide receiver loses generically.

[Jason Moore]

That's true. But I, you know, I pointed this out like he's played pretty big running back and he looked like he needed, you know, his, his size.

[Brooks]

He was sure.

[Jason Moore]

I think, I genuinely think this could be good for James Washington.

[Brooks]

If it's good for his abdominals.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, it's good.

[Brooks]

They're very protrusive.

[Andy Holloway]

Now he's down a belt size. He says he's very happy. If you haven't checked it out, check out the Sleeper app. Great platform for Redraft, for Dynasty, for Keeper leagues, always improving. We're going to be doing our listener league on Sleeper this year. It's going to be great. And without further ado.

[Jason Moore]

Tips and tricks.

[Andy Holloway]

All right, it's time for some Ultimate Draft tips. Tangible, practical, real insight pulled straight out of the Ultimate Draft Kit, which releases on Saturday. Get in there now or tomorrow if you want to get it at the lowest possible price. This is the final push before it's out it's available. And mind you, if you, if you've used it in the past, we listen like the number one thing we do as a company is we want to improve this core product and make your draft experience better. The two things you really wanted, which we really wanted but hadn't been able to get in until this season, were custom scoring. So now you can, you can modify scoring settings. You will get tiers and rankings specific to your scoring settings and be able to save them in there. And the other one is mobile, mobile app for both iOS and Android. So you will have a better mobile experience. You will be able to bring it on the go and enjoy it, you know, in your pocket.

[Jason Moore]

Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

And putting a UDK in your pocket. Nothing better. Nothing better. All right, I'm going to kick it off, guys, and I'm going to pull some insight straight out of the market share reports. Now, Mike, this is one of your babies inside the Ultimate Draft Kit, breaking down all the market share numbers for running backs for wide receivers. It's very interesting when you look at data and you look at the percentage of carries or receptions a player gets in proportion to their team totals. Three names I want to bring up out of this. The first one is Kenyon Drake. Last season, Kenyon Drake had 34%, just 34% of his team's running back yardage.

[Jason Moore]

It's like he was behind an infinity stone or something.

[Andy Holloway]

Correct. Frank Gore was impeding Kenyon Drake's rushing yardage last year. Just 34%, 78% of the team's receiving yards.

[Brooks]

He was a monster through the air.

[Andy Holloway]

What this means to me is that there is not just a big opportunity for Drake on the ground. That's evident right when you look at that evidence and see what Frank Gore did. But it is a great opportunity for Kalen Belange as well. That is a large percentage of running back yards available. Now there has been turnover at the head coaching position. But what I don't believe, and I know you guys do, you're all on board the Kenyon Drake train and I think that there is great opportunity for him. But I also believe that in the NFL more often than not what you are is what you are. And just because a new head coach is coming in and Mr. B. Hole is not there, I don't expect Kenyon Drake. I don't expect Kenyon Drake. And I am laughing because apparently I you don't want to talk about infinity stones and Mr. B hole at a high rate of speed. So apparently there was Jason was enjoying himself over here and I couldn't help but laugh because he had to share it with me the infinity put somewhere.

[Brooks]

And I don't we do not condone this.

[Andy Holloway]

Jason is Jason at his best. But my point is that I think there's great opportunity for Kayla blush. That's the real huge takeaway for me. I think Kenyan Drake will get more opportunity in the running game than he had last year. But Caleb Bellaj is capable in the running game and the passing game. There is a lot of opportunity on that offense. So that's takeaway number one. Here's one that I thought was and do you want to respond to that at all?

[Jason Moore]

I see the opportunity as I mean what you found is obviously a huge opportunity but I think it goes to Kenyon Drake when you've got someone who already has a good percentage of the target share at running back who now has the opportunity to possibly now maybe it is Caleb Blodge. But if Kenyan Drake comes in and grabs more of the running back rushing share, that's how you get a top 12 back. It's true is a back that has.

[Andy Holloway]

Both well and I think that makes Caleb Blodge a very valuable sleeper opportunity there too. Peyton Barber. Here's a very a very interesting takeaway from the market share. He was 100% a workhorse last year.

[Brooks]

Yes, he was.

[Andy Holloway]

He accounted for 61% of his team's running back fantasy points which is ninth most in football. But even more impressive, 83% of the running back yards that is fourth in the NFL. Peyton Barber. When you read the names, that's so fucking Peyton Barber doesn't belong in your mind.

[Jason Moore]

That's just so funny because he didn't have a lot of yards.

[Andy Holloway]

No, he didn't.

[Jason Moore]

Like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could not run the ball.

[Brooks]

You know who didn't have a lot of yards? Ronald Jones.

[Andy Holloway]

Which a Bit of hype piece came out today on Ronald Jones. By the way. Peyton Barbo is also fourth in attempt percentage. So 79% of total attempts. Did they really want to do that to him? Is the one of my points is I don't think they wanted, I don't think they set out and said, you know what, we've got our sake one, we've got our Todd Gurley on this team. His name is Peyton Barber. We want to give him 80% of the running back work that is a product of not having options. So I think what it says to me is that those numbers aren't, aren't going to sustain percentage wise for Peyton Barber this year. And there's an opportunity for Ronald Jones.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Brooks]

And if he already had it, they might.

[Jason Moore]

He had it and he didn't do much with it.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. And so you got best case scenario for Peyton Barber last year from a percentage of Kerry standpoint, he, he can't.

[Jason Moore]

Possibly go up and statistically as far as market share goes, he is going.

[Andy Holloway]

To regress at a market share.

[Jason Moore]

In a market share maybe the offense is better and so it works out.

[Andy Holloway]

Very positive news out of camp on Ronald Jones from coaches. Very positive news today from Jameis Winston.

[Brooks]

Which coach? Because I did not see the Arians. Was it Bruce? Okay.

[Andy Holloway]

And the news today was about Winston and talking about Rojo's confidence level and not looking over his shoulder and playing fast because they didn't invest draft capital.

[Brooks]

Well, if he looks over his shoulder, there's no one back. He needs to look forward because that's where Peyton Barber is on the depth chart.

[Andy Holloway]

That is true. But the point being there's no one behind me.

[Brooks]

Guys.

[Andy Holloway]

They didn't invest draft capital. Well, that's the point. The point is there's no one behind him. If they had spent a third round pick on another running back, Rojo's confidence is sapped because he was drafted high, didn't perform and then is looking over his shoulder instead. He's got Andre Ellington, who didn't even play last year as his, as the backup at that position. Great opportunity for Rocha.

[Brooks]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

The last one I want to bring up is Corey Davis because when you look at his market share in the passing game, it's very similar to Peyton Barber.

[Brooks]

When I was, when I put in his, his numbers I was like what? No, this, this, this doesn't make any sense.

[Jason Moore]

I remember you pointing this out.

[Brooks]

It was until you break down the actual passing production of the team, seventh.

[Andy Holloway]

Highest target percentage in football.

[Brooks]

It doesn't make sense.

[Andy Holloway]

Ninth highest number for percentage of teams, total wide receiver yards. Yeti only had four top 24 weeks, so he was near the top of the league in terms of basically metrics that say Corey Davis dominates the wide receiver position for his team. He is, for all intents and purposes, a number one, except for he was not good for fantasy purposes. So you look at that and you say to yourself, am I going to buy the lie? And the lie is that Corey Davis can get better. And it's a lie because Corey Davis had four top 24 weeks with numbers that would have put him in the upper echelon of target percentage and receiving yards. You add A.J. brown, you add Adam Humphries. You built this team around Derek Henry at the end of the year when Corey Davis wasn't good at all. Not that he was good much of the other time, but he was really not good when Derek Henry was getting 4,000 carries a game. Corey Davis is a unmitigated bust this year.

[Jason Moore]

Here's the thing, Titan fans, so far, you're not enjoying.

[Andy Holloway]

You're not enjoying this at all. I think you're going to be good as a team, though.

[Jason Moore]

That's what I was going to point out. You're not going to be good for fantasy. You're not going to want these players. Derek Henry's going to be all right, but you're not going to be good for fantasy. But you could make the playoffs. You're a solid team and you got the NFL draft. So I hope you went and had a good time.

[Andy Holloway]

The people off City of Tennessee people.

[Brooks]

Often ask, you know, like, how do I go about making a trade offer? Well, if you're trying to trade Corey Davis, I suggest using his market share numbers.

[Andy Holloway]

That is true. You can craft the trade narrative very well. You could, but I mean, look, this is a team that has been nine and seven for three straight years. They're a good team. Their defense got better. I think that they are a very good team. But fantasy wise, you are. You're grasping at. You're saying, this team, I make the playoffs, so I. They must have great players.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

For my fantasy team, the slow pace.

[Jason Moore]

Of play really matters for fantasy. And I think that you're going to see that again in 2019.

[Andy Holloway]

So those are my three takeaways from the market share reports. There are many more to be had. It's just very interesting when you get into the numbers and say, wow, Corey Davis had that percentage.

[Brooks]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So for me, one of the things that I feel like it either Gets overhyped or under hyped. You know, strength of schedule. We've got a strength of schedule in the ultimate draft kit. And we don't just go, was it a good team or a bad team? And how are they facing? We take a look at last year's schedule, this year's schedule, specific to the teams of the divisions that they happened to play. We look on a positional level and try to project things forward to have a good strength of schedule. But we've often said strength of schedule is not the most sticky stat. Right. It's just one of those things where.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, there's turnover on defense.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. I mean, look at, look at the Falcons. The Falcons entered last year with a good defense and then week two came and you knew, well, they had so many injuries, they're no longer a good defense. So on the season, it's really hard for me to say, I love this strength of schedule at the running back position. But there is a place that I personally, in my drafts always look at it. I prefer looking. And we break it down. We break it down for the whole season. We give you that data, the playoff weeks, which again, those a little early, but it's a little early to know how those teams are going to fare. But I love the early season schedule, the weeks one through four. And where I factor this in the most is defense. Like, not like defense, special teams. You've still got a draft one. We don't talk about it a ton on the show. You know, there's not as much research and fun things to look at when it comes to which defense do I pick. So, okay, who are the good defenses? Chicago, Minnesota. You know, I'm going to grab the big great defenses at the top of my draft. Jacksonville and then. But the reality is, and we say this every year like it is, it is better to stream your defense off the waiver wire and play the matchup. Much more so than trying to get a great defense and playing them weekend and week out. Because good defenses, when they go up against a great offense, usually the great offense wins from a fantasy perspective. And that's not always the case. But I would rather play a bad defense against a really bad offense than. Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

Or a mediocre defense or one that's set up to succeed because they're at home two of the first three weeks of the year against mediocre offenses versus saying, hey, I'm just locked and loaded. Yeah, I'm just going with Chicago no matter what happens, even if they start the year against three great Offenses.

[Jason Moore]

So when I was looking at the early season schedule and how those rankings ended. Look, the Vikings are one of my favorite defenses in the NFL, but I noticed that they get off. They have a. They have a really poor strength of schedule to open the first four weeks. So I took a look and saw, okay, if you draft the Vikings in your draft this year, you're going to get Week 1 against the Falcons, an offense that I think we all would not want to play our fantasy defense against.

[Andy Holloway]

Not excited.

[Jason Moore]

And week two against the packers and Aaron Rodgers in the new, you know, offense there. So I feel like I'm going to bypass Minnesota in my drafts because I would. I don't want either of those first two weeks. I'm not going to hold them for week three and beyond.

[Andy Holloway]

They're not in a category of, like, hold all year.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly. So, I mean, I don't. I don't know if anybody is necessarily. Usually one team is worth holding all year, maybe two, but it's not always.

[Andy Holloway]

The team you think Chicago's probably the one to think about.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

But that's it.

[Jason Moore]

And then on the flip side, you know what. What team that maybe is mediocre but has a really good early strength of schedule. Look, the Dallas Cowboys. Their defense isn't class, but they're pretty good. They're middle of the road. But you want to know what? I love playing against bad quarterbacks. That's pretty much what I look.

[Andy Holloway]

What about rookies?

[Jason Moore]

Oh, I love playing against rookie quarterbacks. So the Cowboys open the season against the Giants and Eli Manning without Odell Beckham, and they follow that up with the Redskins, which. I don't care which quarterback they choose. I like either options against my fantasy defense. So those are some examples of, like, how you can utilize a strength of schedule tool for actual, you know, pragmatic way to use it in your draft.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, no, that makes a lot of sense. And even when you're looking at the end of the season, even if you don't know what the turnover is going to be like for those defenses, you can get an idea and say, oh, wow, they're on the road three times, or, you know, some different indications of what may be a tiebreaker between a couple different defenses. Mike, what do you got for us?

[Brooks]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

Ultimate draft tip. Mike, this can't just be a regular draft tip. I just want to be clear. Must be ultimate. Yeah. Pull out your glove, snap your finger. What do you got?

[Brooks]

Well, all I do is bring things.

[Andy Holloway]

That are more ultimate or, well, including grammar, spelling.

[Brooks]

So I want to talk about reception perception. We are absolutely delighted to be the exclusive home of Matt Harmon's Reception Perception. Matt Harmon, one of the bright stars in the fantasy industry, currently working over at Yahoo. Sports. And if you're not familiar with what I'm talking about, what he has done is developed a methodology that he can take a look at wide receivers and see if they're actually a skilled wide receiver at creating separation independent of their quarterback. Because sometimes, you know, you get caught up in a wide receiver who had an awesome year and it turns out, well, he's not actually that good. The ball just happened to bounce the right way for him with opportunity and certain production. So he's looking at wide receivers. How good are they actually? And there is a. There's a ton of interesting information and a couple pieces I wanted to highlight. We all love juju Smith Schuster. In fact, he's up on our wall right now. There's a signed jersey of him and we're all ready for juju to take the next step.

[Jason Moore]

And right now, supernova, the star's been born. Right now, it's supernova time.

[Brooks]

Well, Jason, I don't know if you know, that'd be a die. That'd be a dead star. You don't want that to happen.

[Jason Moore]

I want the supernova. I just don't want the post supernova.

[Brooks]

Ok?

[Jason Moore]

You want the burst, I want the explosion.

[Andy Holloway]

You don't want the dead core, like.

[Brooks]

Right now, I'm on board. I love juju. I have him. He's my top five. I am projecting huge things for him. And for me, it's not so much the increase of targets, it's not the volume because he was. He was a humongous part of that, passing him already. But the touchdowns, that was the number where it's easy to see him moving up. And what's interesting about him, Juju, he's actually very bad against press coverage. He has been both years that he has been in the league. He crushes on the slant route, the dig route and the flat route. Those are very short, short routes.

[Andy Holloway]

He owned the middle of the field.

[Brooks]

But on deeper routes and intermediate routes, his ability to create separation is. Has not been that great. I mean, he's spectacular at what he is. Good. And that has led to. Last year, 71% of his touchdowns came inside the red zone. Okay, let's look at the guy who's gone. Antonio Brown, he wins everywhere. There's absolutely no holes in Antonio Brown's game. He's great at deep routes and Antonio who was a touchdown master. Only 46% of his touchdowns came in the red zone. That means Antonio Brown was scoring rapidly from outside the 20 huge plays. Can juju actually fill that gap in the offense and take his touchdown level from seven to what we're hoping where you're talking 11, 12 touchdowns if he's actually not that great at yet? And I'm just talking his career right now because he can certainly work his way up to being a sensational downfield guy. That's what Antonio Brown did. But I'm just saying that is super.

[Jason Moore]

Interesting and I hate you. I didn't like, I don't like.

[Brooks]

I didn't like it either.

[Jason Moore]

But it's very interesting. And we always say stay water. Make sure you're always taking in more information.

[Andy Holloway]

It's very good information.

[Brooks]

So one of those things where it's like I haven't, I have not adjusted juju yet, but this is, this is the first time that I've had a beam of light hit me in the eye going, maybe I need to pause. Just, just a little. Pump the brakes twice.

[Andy Holloway]

It's interesting too, just hearing it for the first time from you. It's interesting when you add a piece like Dante Moncrief who is known for scoring on big time plays. And we've seen this with the history of Ben Roethlisberger. They try to equip him with downfield threats, whether it was trying to do with Martavis or Sammy Coates or even a guy like James Washington. You know, it's an interesting thing to say, hey, is juju really going to fill that role?

[Brooks]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

And one of the things that we bring up in the juju player profile video on Ultimate Draft Kit and when we've talked about him is the fact that his numbers were at the top end of what you can even achieve from a yardage perspective.

[Jason Moore]

Right.

[Brooks]

That's why touchdowns.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Brooks]

And it seemed like that should be an easy thing for him to go up. Maybe it won't be as easy as we were initially projecting the other pair of wide receivers. I wanted to Highlight Curtis Samuel vs. DJ Moore. DJ Moore of the Carolina Panthers. What are we thinking about the USA Wedding?

[Jason Moore]

Dj I know, I'm thinking about the stop sign.

[Brooks]

Oh, right. So DJ Moore is kind of the easy pick, the hot pick for the breakout wide receiver from the Carolina Panthers, a first round pick this past year. But people forget about Curtis Samuel who was a second round pick just a couple years ago.

[Andy Holloway]

Basically missed a whole year. So he was practicing on the same rookie level.

[Brooks]

And so we all forget how much we loved Curtis Samuel coming into the league. And then you break down his reception perception. And Curtis Samuel has already taken the step to being a top notch route runner making tons of separation which is probably pretty good for his quarterback. Cam Newton needs his can be some room, needs his guys to be open. And that's what Curtis Samuel was doing. So much so that Matt Harmon referred to him as an early career Stefan Diggs. That's what he was seeing. That's how hyped he was for seeing Curtis Samuel. Meanwhile DJ Moore, who is Harmon points out he is excellent in the yards after catch. He had the best percentage of broken tackles when he's in open space. So he's still a sensational player but he's still a young player and he was not creating separation down the field. Meanwhile Curtis Samuel was so this is just one of those things. Let's take pause. It's easy to want to call DJ Moore the breakout, but do not forget there is another high draft capital player on that team who already has a little bit more experience. He, Curtis Samuel could easily be the breakout player for that team and actually.

[Jason Moore]

Like both players which is part of the reason I think Cam if I mean while Cam's healthy he's going to be a good value this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Well, and someone like Curtis Samuel then though looks like a strategic dynasty acquisition.

[Brooks]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Because it's going to cost you a lot and I know this from our leagues to go after a DJ Moore because people see the ceiling of a DJ Moore first round draft capital. You know he's an explosive player but. But you're not going to pay what you have to pay for DJ Moore when you go after Curtis Samuel.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Brooks]

And my point is simply maybe we're a year away from D.J. moore. Maybe more will be that third year.

[Andy Holloway]

Right.

[Brooks]

Like most wide receivers and the last one I wanted to point out, it's just, it's pretty quick. It's Robbie Anderson because this, it's great when you can put like the eye test of watching a player. It's good like I rely on looking at talent, believing I can analyze and know if a player is actually talented. But sometimes it's great to have actual substance to that and that's what reception perception is doing. And Robbie Anderson dominates. He has already. He's one of the best deep threats in the league and it's like yeah, I know. But it's great to have actual concrete numbers knowing that he is creating separation at an elite level. If Sam Darnold really does take that step like I'm projecting him to with Adam Gase, who somehow carries the quarterback whisper moniker still to this day.

[Jason Moore]

He whispered Peyton Manning to greatness.

[Brooks]

Yeah, he's really lucky that he turned that the career of that Peyton Manning bum around.

[Andy Holloway]

The nice thing is most people give him credit for using players the right way.

[Brooks]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

So even if he's not perfect and.

[Brooks]

Why we like Robbie, or at least why I love Robbie Anderson. Well, that's. We'll get to find out this year. Was Adam Gase right? Why I love Robbie Anderson is I'm calling for that next step for Sam Darnold, looking for him to push the ball downfield. And Robbie Anderson has those elite separation skills down the field. So I'm. That's why I have confidence in Robbie. So it's nice to see those things in actual data form instead of just my anecdotal observational opinion of watching him play.

[Jason Moore]

Look how fast he is.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, well, because we see isolated place, you know, that's what happens with your eyes. You're not. Maybe you guys out there are watching every single route that Robbie Anderson runs.

[Brooks]

And that's what Harmon does.

[Andy Holloway]

I see that's what Harmon does. So it's like we see the highlights and we say, oh man, that guy looks like he's great. But it is neat to see that statistical evidence. I'm jumping into the red zone report with my next insight. A couple of shocking stats. I'll start with this one. Alvin Camara, he owned the 10 zone. Now the red zone's inside the 20, but we've got data in there on inside the 10 carries. I love it. I love being able to see how sticky these touchdown numbers really are.

[Jason Moore]

And it's so much more valuable than red zone. Red zone is such a dumb stat.

[Brooks]

Red zone to me works for wide receivers. Yes, but red zone does not work for running backs. I mean, there's huge amounts of evidence.

[Jason Moore]

The if you're running from the 11 to the 19 yard line, it's like, okay, but from the 10 and in is unbelievably valuable.

[Andy Holloway]

And Alvin Camara, he owned it. He owned the 10 zone. 3310 zone attempts last year, second most in the league by behind Todd Gurley, by the way. 1010 zone touchdowns, that's second in the league. So his touchdowns were coming from a more reliable, predictable depth. It's why I have him, the Saints, as the number one rushing team again this year in terms of touchdowns. 71% of Camara's touchdowns came inside the 10 that is repeatable. That is something that was, I think a little bit surprising because people expected, you know, them to go right back to the well with Mark Ingram and giving him those opportunities. No, they said Alvin Camara is just too good.

[Jason Moore]

He just gets in.

[Andy Holloway]

He's just too good. And I don't think that Latavius Murray, while he will supplement, is going to do anything different by way of inside the tin work than Mark Ingram would do. So that was insight number one, Alvin Camara's sticky touchdown rate. This one was even more shocking. And part of this I'm not even going to draw a conclusion here. I'm going to let you guys draw the conclusion because that's a lot of what the ultimate draft gets about. Listen to this. Devonte Adams had more than twice the amount of red zone targets than Mike Evans had last year. So Devonte Adams had 31.

[Brooks]

Makes sense.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike Evans had 14. But get this. Mike Evans had only six total red zone receptions last season. Michael Thomas had 24. Josh Reynolds had seven. That is more than Mike Evans had. Mike Evans did not have a lot of opportunity in the red zone last year whatsoever. When you can turn in a season like he had with six red zone receptions. What do you make of that data? What do you make of that observation?

[Jason Moore]

Two things. It says room to go up for red zone work because Mike Evans is a great red zone player. He's had years where he's dominated in that area of the field. It also speaks a little bit to some of the deep plays that were happening. I mean, you don't get in the red zone when you're scoring Ryan Fitzpatrick magic from the 50 yard line.

[Andy Holloway]

That's true, that's true. I just think it's very interesting when you look at what makes variance at the touchdown position. You look at Devonte Adams and you say 31 targets inside the red zone. Oh, that's why every single year devonte Adams leads or is near the lead of the NFL and touchdowns, the opportunities, success in that space, even Michael Thomas, that's a good number to know that, you know, 24 red zone receptions, some of those are going to end up in the end zone. Someone like Mike Evans, it just seems like there is nowhere to go but up in terms of red zone targets. I feel like this team is going to be more successful through Bruce Arians offense. Even if it's not, you know, exponential, how do you not throw it to the big guy?

[Brooks]

I feel like this is data that we just need to get over to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers oh, yeah. Well, Brooks, because. Because I'm looking your clothes on through.

[Andy Holloway]

Mike, send an email out to Bruce.

[Brooks]

I mean, just historically speaking, his, his red zone reception numbers, they're just not where they should be at all. I mean, Tampa Bay, get it together. He is humongous.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. O.J. howard's looking over and winking at you though, going maybe, maybe not.

[Jason Moore]

O.J. howard looks at Mike Evans, goes humongous.

[Andy Holloway]

Who are you talking?

[Jason Moore]

That baby guy, that little guy. All right, Brooks.

[Andy Holloway]

Interesting.

[Jason Moore]

Brooks, do me a favor, hold off on putting those clothes on because I got to give you huge credit here, Bongo player. What I'm going to bring up now is one of my favorite things that we have on our website at all. I absolutely love them. It's our consistency charts. This is a Brooks creation. Years ago, Brooks was doing this on his own in a Google Doc and we started looking at this data and using it, being like, wow, this is really valuable data. We should give it to the people. So we made that. If you're in the Join the foot, you see the week by week consistency charts through the year. And what these are is these are charts where you can see how a player finished at the position, not just how many points they scored, but like how often. Fantasy finish, fantasy finish. Are they a top 12, are they a top 24? Are they a bust? And it's this color coded grid that just makes it really quick and easy to scroll through and look for anomalies, look for things that stand out. Then we also take it and we.

[Andy Holloway]

Look at percentages like Corey Davis never being green, right?

[Jason Moore]

You'd be like, oh man, why there are only two green.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Boxes here? So here's two quick little things that stood out to me. Tom Brady's a goat, right? Tom Brady is great. He's fantastic. You know, going to go down as the best quarterback of all time. And he has been a very successful fantasy football quarterback in the past. That's why people still draft him and use him high and all that. Last year he still finished, you know, as a decent quarterback. But if you actually look at how it happened on a weekly basis, you start to see a trend here because in the last 10, the last 10 weeks of the season, Tom Brady only had a top 12 quarterback two times. Now keep in mind, you're in a 12 man league pretty much you need a top 12 performance every week. Either you spend a high draft capital on a quarterback who you think almost every week's going to get a top 12 so you could compete with the other 11 teams in the league or you're straining the position so you're playing the matchups to get, you know, well, north of 50% in that top 12, that means eight of the last 10 weeks he was in the top 12, which killed you in fantasy.

[Brooks]

Right.

[Jason Moore]

So, like, when I look at that, and that's kind of the trend, I'm going, okay, I'm off of Tom Brady. I'm not, I'm not drafting Tom Brady. They're going even more run heavy. They lost Gronk. So that's where I'm at on Tom Brady. The other one that stood out to me and this was just. I like.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you actually, you exclaimed aloud in the office when you discovered this.

[Jason Moore]

I did.

[Andy Holloway]

Very distracting.

[Jason Moore]

Well, because I just, I love distracting people. That's why. But so I really like.

[Andy Holloway]

He's good at it.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you. I really like the consistency percentages as well, because sometimes we forget when a player misses games, how good they were or bad they were when they were on the field. And as I looked at the 2018 consistency percentages, OJ Howard, the aforementioned gigantic man from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he had a higher consistency percentage of finishing in the top 12 on a weekly basis than Zach Ertz, George Kittle or Eric Ebron last year. So when we're talking about the potential breakout here for O.J. howard now that Adam Humphreys is gone.

[Andy Holloway]

And Deshaun already broke out percentage wise.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, most of his weeks, 80% of his weeks last year, he was a top 12 tight end. That's great. And so he just needs more weeks. Right. I mean, stay healthy, your knees.

[Andy Holloway]

That's interesting. It is interesting. More weeks.

[Jason Moore]

I'm a big fan of O.J. howard this year. I think he's going to have a great breakout. He'll be one of those, you know, top five drafted tight ends for the next five or six years.

[Andy Holloway]

That's my thing. Interesting. Mike, you can close out the ultimate draft tips here.

[Brooks]

Sure. So the people ask us very frequently how to use the kit. I feel like we've done a pretty good job here of highlighting some of the ways we use it and then. But how do you use it to actually draft? And that's when you talk about tears, baby. If you go look at our rankings, you will find the, the, the projection score that we think that person will hit with with their stats, their risk rating, you know, which is the risk rating is how confident are you in that projection? Because this place, this person may have a lot of variables happening around them.

[Andy Holloway]

Injury or Depth charge history.

[Brooks]

So that's what the risk rating is all about. And then you will see these players are grouped into tiers. Now, if you're not familiar with this, this is how we think about players when we're drafting them. We put them in a bucket. So. And inside of this bucket are players who we believe will score very similar end of season. Their points will be very similar to one another. That helps you separate yourself from the name where you freak out. You're like, I gotta get Andrew Luck.

[Jason Moore]

Or even the rank. Oh, he's three spots behind this other player.

[Brooks]

Yeah, I've got to get this player. I got to get Andrew Luck. And then you realize that we have Deshaun Watson, who's ranked behind Andrew Luck but scoring a very similar amount of points. He's in the same tier, but Deshaun Watson is going a full round behind Andrew Luck. So you're looking at, well, I can get similar point production going later in the draft. So that's. I feel like that's a snapshot. Have I missed anything explaining tears?

[Andy Holloway]

No, I think that you covered it. And it's just a philosophical way of approaching the draft that gives you an advantage over other players. You never put yourself in a position of desperation when you were drafting strategically using tears.

[Brooks]

It helps you not draft afraid. And then I look through which you.

[Andy Holloway]

Always make the worst picks when you're afraid.

[Brooks]

You do. When you draft tilts, it's the worst. We've all done it.

[Jason Moore]

Everyone has.

[Andy Holloway]

I'll just say this, we all have. And when you make one bad draft pick, it's like it's required by law to make the next two really bad, too. It's like you've tilted on that one, then you realize you made it, and then you try to make up for it and you get out of hand.

[Brooks]

So there was a couple players that I just wanted to point out real quick that along with we have guys who we have designated as these are values that all three of us believe in. We can look at the projections and find your own values based off of these tiers. Like Julian Edelman. For us, he is a tier three wide receiver. And you can see the ADP data in here that he's going a full round behind all the other. At least a full round behind all these other wide receivers who are in that same tier. Sammy Watkins, much to Andy's chagrin. So this is more of a Jason Moore, Mike Wright special. We got him in our Tier 5, and he's going at the back of.

[Andy Holloway]

The center I call him Sammy Sadness, but go on.

[Brooks]

Sammy Sadness.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, yeah, go on.

[Brooks]

All right. And then the aforementioned because I can't stop talking about Robbie Anderson.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, I love that man.

[Brooks]

But he's in, he's at the top of Tier 6 and he is going in the eighth round.

[Andy Holloway]

Meanwhile, Robbie Happiness. Is that who you're talking about?

[Brooks]

Wow, you are crushing right now.

[Jason Moore]

You're on fire.

[Brooks]

He's at the top of that tier going in the eighth round. Meanwhile all the other players in that tier are in the fifth or the sixth round. So this is helping you strategize how you're going to attack the. Attack your draft, put these guys into tiers. It's extremely helpful.

[Andy Holloway]

A couple points to add to that. We do have a brand new cheat sheet creator that features tiers and your tiers are dynamically updated based on your scoring system. So when you plug in whatever idiosyncrasies your league scoring has, the tiers are dynamically and algorithmically adjusted and you will have a very up to date perfect draft day cheat sheet. For those of you like myself, who likes to print out a piece of paper, who likes to reference his cheat sheet and I like, I get the Sharpie out.

[Jason Moore]

That's the way dad did it look.

[Andy Holloway]

The way dad does it, the way that, the way that draft day smells like a Sharpie. That's all I'm saying.

[Jason Moore]

I'm actually right.

[Brooks]

It smells like wings.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

I'm actually so there with you. I feel like I draft best with a printed cheat sheet where I can look at everyone at once. Cross players off like and last year.

[Andy Holloway]

They were not nearly what they are this year. This year it's a one, it's a one sheet. We make it easy. So very excited again tomorrow, today, last two days that you can get the ultimate draft kit at preorder pricing. We want you in there, we want you to enjoy it. It's updated all off season and that is ultimate draft kit.com and if you do play DFS, there is a combo available to get the DFS pass which is our in season DFS helper.

[Jason Moore]

I'm so excited for this year.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we got a lineup generator coming this year to the DFS pass.

[Jason Moore]

We've added some top notch writers to.

[Brooks]

The articles, like the top men.

[Jason Moore]

I mean this, the DFS side is going to be awesome. And it's right now if you're getting the combo, it's, it's a ridiculous deal considering what DFS costs elsewhere.

[Andy Holloway]

I will, I will close out the show saying this, there is a high probability and take whatever precautions are necessary that you will be naked playing bongos by the time you get into the ultimate draft.

[Brooks]

All right, all right, all right.

[Andy Holloway]

All right. Today's pristine deal of the day. A Deandre Hopkins signed Houston Texans jersey yesterday on pristine auction. Sold for $58.97. Another steal on pristine auction. Hundreds of daily sports memorabilia auctions. Memorabilia that was like my Mark Ingram yesterday. There might be some Mark Ingram gear on there. Pristineauction.com when you sign up, which is totally free, if you use the registration code ballers, you get five bucks into your account for a future auction purchase. So that is just free money. We talked to them, we said, we want you to give our listeners free money.

[Jason Moore]

And they did.

[Andy Holloway]

And they, they were like, okay. It took them a little while, but they were like, sure. And so you can do [e-mail] with the registration code ballers. That is it for today's episode. Fellas.

[Brooks]

We did it. We made it through.

[Jason Moore]

I'm so excited for draft season.

[Brooks]

Yeah, it's.

[Andy Holloway]

It's getting really fun.

[Brooks]

It's coming soon. Hey, we will see you next week. Thank you for tuning in.

[Jason Moore]

Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.