WR Rankings Countdown: 20-11 + Keenan's Back! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/6

Summary

Summary of "WR Rankings Countdown: 20-11 + Keenan's Back!" – Fantasy Footballers Podcast (Released August 6, 2025)

Hosts: Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright

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Introduction

In this episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, the trio—Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright—focus on wide receiver rankings, counting down from ranks 20 to 11. The discussion is heightened by the exciting news of Keenan Allen rejoining the Chargers, adding depth to their analysis and providing crucial insights for fantasy football enthusiasts.

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News Highlights

Keenan Allen Rejoins the Chargers

• Timestamp: [06:40]
• Jason Moore announces Keenan Allen’s return to the Los Angeles Chargers on a one-year deal worth up to $8.5 million.
• Andy Holloway remarks on Allen's potential to break into the top 10 all-time receptions, noting, “It also doesn't matter like he's going to get past, you know, when you finish at 10.”

Matthew Stafford’s Injury Concerns

• Timestamp: [09:40]
• Jason Moore raises alarms about Matthew Stafford’s aggravated disc injury requiring an epidural, questioning his availability for the upcoming season: “This is a really significant situation.”
• Andy Holloway and Mike Wright express concerns about the Chargers' offensive stability without Stafford’s full health.

Other Player Updates

• Darren Waller remains a week away from practice, with Mike Wright questioning his readiness: “Good Lord. Darren Waller. What was he doing?”
• Updates on players like Noah Fant, Cole Kmet, and Shador Sanders provide a comprehensive overview of potential impacts on fantasy teams.

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Wide Receiver Rankings: 20-11

The hosts delve into the rankings, providing detailed analyses and projections for each wide receiver from rank 20 to 11.

20. Jameson Williams

• Timestamp: [24:13]
• Jason Moore praises Williams’ breakout potential despite past injuries and off-field issues: “But I think a breakout is in store.”
• Mike Wright highlights the risk of his ADP being too high based on volatility and past performance, suggesting a cautious approach.

19. Devonte Adams

• Timestamp: [30:31]
• With Matthew Stafford’s injury, Adams’ fantasy value is scrutinized. Andy Holloway emphasizes his touchdown opportunities: “He was so good last year... he still looked like he had it.”

18. Garrett Wilson

• Timestamp: [33:38]
• Andy Holloway and Jason Moore discuss Wilson’s potential rise despite being placed outside the top 10 last season.
• Concerns about dependency on Stafford’s health and offensive dynamics are balanced with optimism about Wilson’s skill and target potential.

17. DK Metcalf

• Timestamp: [35:00]
• Mixed opinions on Metcalf’s performance compared to his draft position. Mike Wright expresses disappointment, while Andy Holloway remains optimistic about his future performances with Aaron Rodgers.

16. Lad McConkey

• Timestamp: [44:07]
• McConkey is reassessed following Keenan Allen’s signing. Jason Moore views him as a reliable asset but notes increased competition: “He’s about where he was last year.”

15. Tyreek Hill

• Timestamp: [49:37]
• Concerns about Hill’s consistency and injury history. Andy Holloway highlights the high risk versus high reward scenario: “Wide receiver 13. He’s either great and you’re getting a steal... or he is more done than what you saw last year.”

14. Mike Evans

• Timestamp: [51:10]
• Jason Moore anticipates a slight decline in Evans’ performance, suggesting he won’t reach a thousand yards: “I don’t think Mike Evans gets to a thousand receiving yards.”
• Andy Holloway counters by affirming Evans’ consistency and importance: “He is locked in as a top 15 wide receiver.”

13. James Cook (Assumed to be JSN)

• Timestamp: [56:11]
• Discussion on James Cook’s value based on his sophomore year potential versus his Rookie season performance.
• Mike Wright emphasizes caution due to his inconsistency: “He’s not the fifth guy to go.”

12. Marvin Harrison Jr.

• Timestamp: [57:23]
• Harrison Jr. is seen as a promising sophomore with growth potential. Andy Holloway praises his offseason improvements: “He put on a lot of weight in the offseason and it looks good.”

11. T. Higgins

• Timestamp: [61:52]
• Andy Holloway lauds Higgins’ efficiency and target share: “He is a 1B. It’s just 1A is maybe the best wide receiver in the entire league.”
• Jason Moore remains cautiously optimistic about Higgins’ fantasy value despite his injury history: “There are a handful of players you don’t have to take if you don’t want to.”

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Key Discussions & Insights

Keenan Allen’s Impact on the Chargers’ WR Corps

• Andy Holloway and Jason Moore discuss how Allen’s addition provides stability and increases the overall target pool, potentially benefiting fantasy managers by spreading the ball more effectively.

Jameson Williams’ Breakout vs. Risk

• Balancing Williams’ high upside against his injury history is a central theme. Mike Wright stresses the importance of evaluating his ADP relative to his true potential.

Matthew Stafford’s Injury and Offensive Adjustments

• The potential ripple effects of Stafford’s injury on the Chargers’ offense are analyzed, with a focus on how Garrett Wilson and other receivers might adapt to maintain offensive efficiency.

Tier-Based Drafting Strategy

• The hosts emphasize the importance of tier-based rankings to navigate gaps between player groups, ensuring fantasy managers maximize value by understanding positional depth and target shares.

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Conclusions

The episode provides a thorough analysis of wide receivers ranked 20-11, offering nuanced perspectives on each player's potential and risks. Keenan Allen’s return to the Chargers emerges as a pivotal factor, enhancing the depth and flexibility of their receiving corps. The discussion underscores the significance of tier-based drafting and strategic target allocation in optimizing fantasy football rosters.

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Wright on Keenan Allen’s potential: “He will surpass DeAndre Hopkins. He will pass.” [07:20]
• Jason Moore on Matthew Stafford's injury: “This is a really significant situation.” [10:06]
• Andy Holloway on Jameson Williams: “He is one of those drafted to be great guys coming out of college, was supposed to be a superstar.” [29:07]
• Jason Moore on Devonte Adams' touchdowns: “He will be Disappointed in the fantasy finish.” [35:36]

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This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast episode, ensuring that both regular listeners and newcomers stay informed about crucial fantasy football insights and strategies.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

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I have long watched the people of Earth and I have witnessed their capacity for greatness. They know that in any draft there are calms between storms. There are days when their league mates turn against them. But the day will never come when they forsake their Fantasy draft and the quest for ultimate glory. Rankings, sleepers, breakouts, values. Together at last, united within the Ultimate Draft Kit. The Ultimate Draft Kit stands ready, waiting, watching, protecting and making your opponents look like stupid, dumb, dumb idiots compared to you. And your magnificently hot roster will you use to build your team and win a championship? I do not know. But yes, you probably should. The time for courage and world domination is [e-mail].

[Andy Holloway]

The Fantasy Footballers Studio is sponsored by Walmart. Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your host, Andy Holland, Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Mike Wright]

Welcome in.

[Jason Moore]

Wednesday, August 6th, the Fantasy Footballers podcast. I'm. I'm looking at this desk in front of us guys and I'm seeing.

[Mike Wright]

What are you seeing?

[Jason Moore]

Who's that player you got over by you, Mike?

[Mike Wright]

Devonta Smith.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, you got Devonta Smith over there. You got Patrick Mahomes over here.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Jason Moore]

The desk looks good. And then I'm like. Then there's like Julio Jones. Julio Jones is over here. Hey, just hanging out.

[Andy Holloway]

Respect.

[Mike Wright]

Julio Jones.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I have to imagine that was put there because today is Kyle's day. And an all time favorite, Julio Jones.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's a Falcons guy.

[Mike Wright]

We don't have Falcons guy.

[Andy Holloway]

But he's also a Keenan.

[Mike Wright]

We don't have a Keenan figure.

[Jason Moore]

No. I don't know if they made any of those. So that's the stain with me. Too many. Too Many slot snaps. But yes, I just, I just noticed the, the vintage out here today. And Julio Jones, he was, he's very special for fantasy football. Remember how many weeks we'd be like talking about him limping off the field, but then like, how many games play? Yeah, all of them.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. I mean, if he played 16 games, then we talked about it about 16 times.

[Jason Moore]

It was like LaShawn McCoy, but the wide receiver version.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. But then he would go back in and dominate.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, man, I love Julio.

[Jason Moore]

He was so good. He was so good. We have a fun show for you today. Thank you for joining us. Thank you for following the podcast and following along this season. Shout out to the Foot Clan supporting us [e-mail] we have a wide receiver rankings episode today, so we'll talk through probably about 10 of these guys as we count it down to our overall top 10 wide receivers. We've got news to talk about. Jason, you're in the double navy over there. You're looking good. How are you doing?

[Andy Holloway]

I'm feeling great. It's a great morning to talk football and so many exciting things happening in the. In the news.

[Jason Moore]

And you talked about Keenan.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. I think it really changes a lot for that team. It's so good from a. Maybe not Keenan.

[Mike Wright]

I went back to the Chargers, everybody. Right.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, we'll talk about it for the team. But for the Chargers, I think it is really great news. Fantasy might actually muddy some waters for most.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Outside of your love or growing love for maybe Justin Herbert.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. Herbert Hampton, I think get a little lift there. But obviously the wide receiver core lad.

[Jason Moore]

Huge.

[Andy Holloway]

My love for Trey Harris and their other rookie is but man, that offense is going to be hard to stop.

[Jason Moore]

That division is very interesting one because I feel very similarly about Denver, like I feel so positively about them. And the Kansas City is just always there. And there's a quarterback in Las Vegas now. It'll be. It'll be fun. So we're talking wide receivers for the main event on today's episode. We'll jump into the mailbag if we have some time. A reminder, the ultimate draft kit available with the new Value Scout tool, which is available to everybody, whether it's udk, UDK plus. If you do have the UDK plus, you get the draft analyzer as well. And a reminder, you can get everything, all the draft kit and all the in season tools and resources. We launched the ultimate Foot Clan membership last year. After 10 years of kind of separating products, we decided to create a singular, easy way for you to get everything. So if you want to do that, that is jointhefoot.com, the ultimate membership. You'll get the UDK plus as part of that. If you've already bought the UDK or the UDK plus and you want to just take that and get a full credit towards an ultimate membership, we're doing that for [e-mail] so you can check that out as well. Let's jump right into that. News.

[Andy Holloway]

News and notes from around the league presented by Progressive Insurance.

[Jason Moore]

Keenan Allen is back reuniting with the Chargers. A one year deal worth up to $8.5 million. He is currently number 18 on the all time receptions list.

[Andy Holloway]

96 catches behind being top 10. Wow.

[Jason Moore]

Six catch okay. Yeah, I don't know if 96 is in the cards this year, but it's not impossible.

[Andy Holloway]

It also doesn't matter like he's going to get past, you know, when you finish at 10. It's neat to say like when I retired, but you're not staying there.

[Jason Moore]

I would be very happy to say that though to get into that top.

[Mike Wright]

He would have a good chance. I mean he's going to be battling out with Hopkins. Hopkins is a couple spots above.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, he's going to pass.

[Mike Wright]

He will surpass DeAndre Hopkins.

[Jason Moore]

So yeah, the second most receptionist per game in NFL history. He joins a Chargers team that really I feel like needed a Keenan Allen, a stabilizing force in the wide receiver room. We all love lad McConkey but it's, it's also a tall task to kind of like ask lad McConkey to be kind of everything for your, for your offense and then depend upon Cuge and a couple of rookies with Trey Harris and and you know Lambert Smith. Yeah, Lambert Smith. And then you have, you know, you got Disley and Conklin. Like they're just a well rounded offense where you know, I have such a trust in Herbert and finding the right guy. And last year Keenan Allen was very good.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that was surprisingly good in Chicago with Caleb Williams who had a disappointing season and the year prior when he was a charger, he was, you know, unbelievably good for fantasy. He was great with Herbert. He's obviously got that rapport. The question is going to be who's in the slot. You know, Keenan played a little bit more outside last year than what you would imagine. Ladd has been predominantly slot but when Keenan was a charger he was predominantly slot. So I think they can move pieces around but they have, I mean Keenan is where you want him to be. Will catch what you throw him the ball. Just like lad McConkey. It's just reliable pass catchers here. And then Quentin Johnston, who is not a reliable pass catcher, but he can certainly run down the field while the defense worries about their two good wide receivers.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, it's exciting for Herbert for sure.

[Andy Holloway]

He did move up in my rankings quite a bit.

[Mike Wright]

Keenan Allen.

[Andy Holloway]

Keenan moved up quite a bit. He was very low in my rankings having no team. But yeah, I think Keenan Allen, I have him down for the second most targets on the team. I think he's going to be a relevant fantasy asset this year.

[Jason Moore]

Jordan Addison officially suspended three games. It was the expectation two or three games. We got the official word. We still don't have the official word.

[Andy Holloway]

On Rashi Rice, but it shows that it's coming soon, this time of year.

[Jason Moore]

Do you want to make a Rashi Rice prediction here on the show? Six. Okay, six for you, Mike. Do you have a prediction for Rashi Rice?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm going to go with six.

[Jason Moore]

I'm going eight.

[Andy Holloway]

I think it might start eight and then go to six. I think by the time we get around to the season, it'll be six.

[Jason Moore]

I think it might start 50, starting.

[Mike Wright]

At eight and it's going to 12. I'm going to say, how dare you try and fight this.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, no, I want to see an appeal go up. Yeah. You know what? You were right. We were wrong. We didn't do enough.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Like if you appeal certain things that you definitely admitted to doing, that's like nodded. That's like going to the parole board and being like, I'm innocent, dude.

[Andy Holloway]

We were trying to be nice.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

How dare you.

[Jason Moore]

All right, what else? Oh, look. More and more Matthew Stafford news.

[Mike Wright]

It's loud enough now for you to pay attention.

[Jason Moore]

Look, he's dealing with an aggravated disc in his back. He had to receive an epidural and that is not good. He has been managing it. They say he is going to be back for week one. They say this is all management. Right? Like, that's the message going out there. But this is. This is a really significant situation.

[Andy Holloway]

The camera you were talking, you were.

[Mike Wright]

Having a great eloquent point about Matthew Stafford's back. And then the stupid doosers put Jason on the.

[Andy Holloway]

All of a sudden I'm on the camera and I was like, what the hell am I doing on camera? 100% fat fingered that button, man. I was like, Andy's riffing, man. I'm so going to just Let him do this.

[Jason Moore]

And this is why. This is why George Kittle is right.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, George Kittle.

[Jason Moore]

George Kittle is very upset right now. And we have some smelling salts in the building and I'm going to toss one over to Josh because we got to get on board here. Let me just.

[Andy Holloway]

So the NFL came out. The NFL came out, actually banned smelling.

[Mike Wright]

Salts, which I saw it and I like. What NFL? What are we doing?

[Jason Moore]

Go ahead.

[Mike Wright]

There were. Oh, Josh's. Oh, Josh not supposed to smell them. That's.

[Andy Holloway]

I deserve that, man. Holy moly. If you, if you go to YouTube.

[Jason Moore]

That's why they banned it.

[Andy Holloway]

You went hardcore after that thing. Your eyes are going to bleed out of your ears.

[Jason Moore]

K would be very.

[Mike Wright]

Ride the lightning, brother. There was more, there was more follow up on it and they were talking about, I mean some other concerns, but also they were saying at least hiding it under.

[Jason Moore]

Is it concussion?

[Mike Wright]

Concussion.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, that makes perfect sense.

[Mike Wright]

Being able to mask a concussion because you snap out of it. And as one, I'm very pro brain health and people keeping their brains as healthy as we possibly can with this gladiator sport that they play.

[Andy Holloway]

Big brain on you.

[Mike Wright]

I was like, okay, NFL, you, you win this time.

[Andy Holloway]

So George Kittle said he wanted to. He considered retirement when this came through because he uses smelling salts before every single drive.

[Jason Moore]

That can't be good for you.

[Mike Wright]

No, it cannot.

[Jason Moore]

Just see Papa Josh and what happened to his body.

[Andy Holloway]

Have you seen interviews with George Kittle?

[Jason Moore]

He does seem like a man that is on something.

[Andy Holloway]

He seems like a man who's had a lot of smelling salts.

[Jason Moore]

All right.

[Andy Holloway]

And he's a good time.

[Jason Moore]

Papa Josh is awake and we never need him more.

[Mike Wright]

What happened?

[Jason Moore]

Can I circle back here?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, yeah, please.

[Jason Moore]

Before the camera went off of me mid Matthew Stafford conversation, aggravated disc management issue. The risk rating is very high and I, you know, I expected big things from the Rams offense.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

With Matthew Stafford, it gets really, really difficult if you take him off the field for Puka Nakua and Devonte Adams because both of those guys are target monsters. Both of those guys are go to receivers and you put them both in an offense that's led by Jimmy Garoppolo. Let me, let me give you a hypoth. Let's say you run a simulation and let's say you put Jimmy Garoppolo as Devonte Adams quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Try to run the simulation.

[Andy Holloway]

Trying to picture how that could look.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, just try to picture.

[Mike Wright]

Maybe I'm going to go back to a sample.

[Jason Moore]

Go to like, let's just put him on a team randomly like the Raiders.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

How did that go?

[Mike Wright]

There is a very particular clip of Devonte Adams on the sideline using words, not safer word.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Work words and saying I need to get out of here.

[Andy Holloway]

And then you have because of the murder balls.

[Mike Wright]

Because I'm getting destroyed on every play.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. There is an execution of the offense that Stafford can do that Jimmy Garoppolo won't be able to do in my opinion. Now he might be fine, but I'm.

[Mike Wright]

Okay with Jimmy for a game or two. But this is just. This is now at the point where and Matthew Stafford, he has proven it time and time again.

[Jason Moore]

He'll play through pain.

[Mike Wright]

He is very, very tough and will.

[Jason Moore]

Wonder how smelling salts and Matthew Stafford were working together.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he's going to find him in the blue tent. But it's. This is, this is really troubling that you might have a ticking time bomb for. And Puka's a what?

[Jason Moore]

Puka is a first round super high school neighbors. Collins, Brian Thomas, London, A.J. brown.

[Mike Wright]

It's skewed.

[Jason Moore]

I would not want him over those guys if I had the fear.

[Andy Holloway]

I love Puka so much and I like Puka with Stafford more than those players. But today I actually moved. I, you know, usually I just do the risk rating and make sure that you know what you're getting into.

[Mike Wright]

Right.

[Andy Holloway]

But I actually artificially moved Puka down a few spots. I wanted him be behind Malik Neighbors and Nico Collins because I do think he carries risk that isn't his fault. But if I was sitting there and I can choose Malik Neighbors, like if Malik Neighbors quarterback goes down, he might get better if James comes in. Great.

[Mike Wright]

You know who is the number two by the way?

[Jason Moore]

Jackson Dart, the number three on the unofficial depth chart.

[Andy Holloway]

So yeah, I mean there's worry. Stafford playing 17 this year feels like a tall task. Not that it can't happen. Not the staffer won't be there week one, you know, baby ready with his epidural. But you know, I was trying to.

[Jason Moore]

Figure out what you meant, but now I get.

[Andy Holloway]

That's the only time I've ever seen someone get an epidural. That's to have a baby.

[Mike Wright]

And I will tell you what you can't do after you have an epidural. Oh yeah, that would be play football.

[Andy Holloway]

I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

Look, it's, it is concerning. He has played through pain and this could be one of those things where, look, if he's, if he's healthy and active, you get a deal on Puka or devonte Adams, but it's just not what you want to hear this time of year. Speaking of 17 games being unlikely, Kenneth Walker.

[Mike Wright]

How dare you return to practice. I told you he was resting three days. He is rested up and ready to practice.

[Andy Holloway]

How many games do you think he'll rest this year?

[Mike Wright]

I think he will rest two to three games.

[Andy Holloway]

I love it.

[Mike Wright]

I love it when you are number one. Enforced missed tackles and your offensive line has made you like almost dead last in yards before contact. You got to take a few rests.

[Jason Moore]

I was going to say for a 3. Exhausting for a 3.7 yards per carry with that many broken tackles. He's doing so much running for so little yardage.

[Andy Holloway]

It is. He is a fascinating case because I've gone complete 180 on him. I came into this offseason ready to be so, so in on Kenneth Walker and take the chance, take the risk this year because when he's out there, he is a phenomenal fantasy player, a phenomenal running back. He's. He's a. He is really good. And I have gotten to the point where I'm like, I'm letting other people, like, I.

[Mike Wright]

Well, then I will happily scoop him up.

[Andy Holloway]

You will scoop him up right behind me.

[Mike Wright]

They're. The offensive line for Seattle has at least some improvements. And I think that the, the, the Kubes running system really helps a. An offensive line that maybe not be the strongest. Get that scheme going.

[Andy Holloway]

Maybe schemes make dreams.

[Mike Wright]

Is that what they say, James?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, that's what Goof says.

[Jason Moore]

Tyree Kill, absent from today's practice due to an undisclosed injury. So there you go. Darren Waller still a week away from practice.

[Mike Wright]

Good Lord. Darren Waller. What was he doing?

[Jason Moore]

He's ramping up.

[Andy Holloway]

He's been ramping up for months that.

[Mike Wright]

They'Re eager to see him.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. At first it was. He has stayed in such great shape.

[Mike Wright]

No, he has not.

[Andy Holloway]

It's like he can't play football. He's not ready.

[Mike Wright]

It is definitely a. There's a difference between being in excellent shape and being in football shape. But this is. This feels like a really long time for a player.

[Andy Holloway]

And then they were bringing in Noah Fant like after. After they, you know, traded for Darren Waller. And it's like, we should take a.

[Jason Moore]

Look at Noah Fant, too, at Cole. Comet left practice early on Tuesday but avoided serious injury. And we did get some preseason information on starter situation. Shador Sanders is going to start for the Browns.

[Mike Wright]

Anthony Richardson, which I read a comment that said he's on, he's starting week one despite not having reps with the ones wonderful like that.

[Jason Moore]

Is he playing with other ones in that game?

[Mike Wright]

I don't know.

[Jason Moore]

Or is it just a bunch of the people he's been playing with?

[Mike Wright]

It's just, that's a wild situation.

[Jason Moore]

Cam Ward will, Cam Ward and the starters will play in every preseason game. That's smart.

[Mike Wright]

I think the news on preseason and starters being involved is, it's great. Look, we've been, you know, the way it used to be was get your, get your starters the heck out of preseason. We don't want an injury for a meaningless football game. But we have, I think we've now have enough data of the last few years of like, of offenses starting so slow. See the Bengals.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, the Bengals are going to play some of their starters, at least for a series or two.

[Mike Wright]

And then, and the Cardinals said that they were going to play some starters.

[Andy Holloway]

Raiders said they were going to play starters.

[Jason Moore]

You can get hurt. Like we have all the clips. We watch training camp.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Like players are flying around. You watch the family night games, the offensive defensive matchups. They're flying around, tackling each other, going up. You know, players are going to get hurt. I would rather practice a little bit out there on the field and get games.

[Mike Wright]

I've changed over. I want some preseason.

[Jason Moore]

We might actually enjoy week one a little bit more too.

[Andy Holloway]

I think it does depend on the team. You know, like if you've got, you.

[Jason Moore]

Know, Matthew Stafford should not play.

[Andy Holloway]

Exactly. Exactly. Yeah. A 17 year vet who's walking in this system has a Super bowl under that system. You know what I mean? Like Mahomes, they don't need to, they don't need to put him out there. I mean, I'm not saying whether they will or won't, but you know, if you've got like the Bengals who every single year start so slow they don't play any of their starters in the preseason and then they start, you know, 0, 2, 2 and 4 every year. It's like maybe, maybe, maybe just act like the preseason is season and then start Owen 2 in the preseason and then when, when the season starts now.

[Jason Moore]

Obviously we'll completely take back everything we said of anybody important.

[Andy Holloway]

First injury gets hurt, it all goes.

[Mike Wright]

What a bunch of idiots.

[Jason Moore]

Anthony Richardson starting the first preseason game. Daniel Jones will start the second preseason game. Okay, so that's the plan for the Colts and that is the rest of the news and notes sponsored by Progressive Insurance. Quote Today at progressive.com, progressive Casualty Insurance Company affiliates and third party insurers not available in all states or situations. Coverage subject to policy terms, limits and conditions. We'll take a break and we'll start counting down the whiteouts.

[Andy Holloway]

Thanks to Yahoo. Fantasy for supporting this episode. It is my favorite time of year. The NFL season is almost here and fantasy football season is in full swing. This season, Yahoo Fantasy is taking it up a notch and giving you a fantasy football experience like never before. That means you can be playing on Yahoo. Fantasy whether you're a first timer or a veteran making your millionth league. To celebrate 28 years of fantasy football greatness, Yahoo. Fantasy is dropping 28 big new features over 28 days throughout August. To kick it off, they just dropped Yahoo. Fantasy Guillotine leagues. A killer new way to play fantasy football on Yahoo. Where the lowest scoring team gets eliminated each week until there's one team left standing. With the season around the corner, now is the time to get your league together and give this new mode a try. Or if you're into the classics, you can still play head to head private leagues or join a public league. Stay tuned for more killer announcements and start playing Yahoo. Fantasy Football now@yahoo. Fantasy.com footballers that's Yahoo. Fantasy.com footballers.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we are looking at the wide receiver 20 down to probably 11 today. We'll see where we get and then we'll jump into the top 10 tomorrow. These are more interesting sometimes because more debate, more variance in rankings as opposed to more consensus with the top guys. Looking at the half PPR rankings today, it's probably a good time, Jason, to remind people about the tiered rankings and the importance of tier based drafting because you know, there are gaps between groups of wide receivers that really matter when you're drafting.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, for sure. When we, when we do our rankings sometimes it's as simple as if you ended up giving someone a half touchdown more, they go up four or five spots. They're really in a group of players that all have the similar range of outcomes. But when you draft just based on rankings, you can get really wrong conclusions as to when you lose value. Yeah, when you need to take a player at a certain position. So if you've got the ultimate draft kit, we break everything down into tiers within each position. So you know, like, okay, we feel like, you know these examples.

[Jason Moore]

Sorry, I was just going to say like the gap between like Widershire 20 and 21 last year was over 2 points per game. There are gaps like that that we believe, you know, you want to be drafting a guy towards the back of a tier, not necessarily starting the next group.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, you don't want to take the second guy out of a tier or yeah, when you start a tier, you're just not getting the value there because if you were to grab one a round or two later that are in that same tier and then instead with that first pick have gone to the last guy at a running back, you know, tier that is about to dry up, you just end up with a far stronger roster.

[Jason Moore]

I was told I didn't hit this button.

[Andy Holloway]

Wide receivers.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, thank God.

[Jason Moore]

I also recognize that I didn't hit that button. I wasn't just told. I also knew that.

[Mike Wright]

Well, it.

[Jason Moore]

Sometimes you totally did it on purpose. All right, number 20 on our rankings, Jameson Williams. It is certainly my ranking that is pulling him up into our top 20.

[Mike Wright]

Me and, me and Jay are not. I mean, I guess you guys are above adp, but we are not that far behind the rank of 20.

[Jason Moore]

No, I, you know, I think a good thing to do. People have heard me talk about Jameson Williams this offseason. They know I'm a fan. I think it might be important, as I lay some of these things out, just to get specifically an opinion from you guys on what might go wrong for Jameson Williams this year. Because, you know, I'm very excited. The potential, the 24 year old, you know, speedster in this offense that has kind of committed to being more of a downfield offense this year. And you ask yourself, well, you know, Jared Goff didn't do that. He was the third lowest percentage of attempts, 20 plus yards down the field. What does that mean? Well, he was good when he did it. That was the thing. He was third in fantasy points per drop back when he did throw it down the field. I can think of a couple years ago when I made Mike Evans a my guy. It was part. Part of that was on the basis of the success rate of Baker Mayfield throwing the ball down the field. He was very effective. Speaking of Jared Goff, when he did do that, they've talked about Jameson Williams and the fact that basically they've locked him in to a couple of spots, which has allowed him to establish a better route tree and become more integrated into the offense. And we have spent off season after off season after off season of more critical comments from the head coach and offensive coordinators. Those are not present anymore. And so I think a breakout is in store. But talk to me a little bit about maybe the opposite perspective, a devil's advocate approach.

[Mike Wright]

Sure. I would start with, I've Mentioned some of the ADP studies I've been working on of. You know, part of my concern with JSN is guys that break out in year two. We steam their ADP up and then they, they actually become like a 5050 of well, will they return value on their. Where you took them, the expectation for, for them to score. Meanwhile, guys that break out in year three, they have them at ADP returning value to you. It's a, it's a really, really high hit rate and I think that's a.

[Jason Moore]

Feather in the Jameson Williams cap.

[Mike Wright]

Exactly. So that's where I wanted to start and point that out of the journey of Jameson Williams is interesting. I mean you had, he was coming into the draft hurt, you know, he had the torn acl. He ends up only playing six games. It's a tough season. Then you have the next year and you have the gambling suspension and then year three he finishes as a top 20 wide receiver. So based off his traff, his draft pedigree and the ADP study, he becomes very, very interesting to me and I'm in. But if you want me to play devil's advocate, that would be. I think it's pretty easy to do. Of the variables are here. Number one, Ben Johnson is gone. The offensive coordinator that is. We've seen that be huge hits for teams. You know, sometimes it doesn't matter and they just continue rolling on. But we've also seen times where the offense becomes. You see the Philadelphia Eagles, they changed off, they had to change offensive coordinators. They did not keep rolling and that offensive coordinator did not stick around in Philadelphia for very long. Then on, on top of that their defense was just so beat up and depleted that they had to score more points and this is a high T team. And then combine that with you know, while the reviews on Jameson over the over camp and everything have been glowing, there was weird buzz around the draft of is Jameson Williams going to get traded? Then they, they spend not only a third round pick on Tesla, on Isaac Tesla, they traded two future thirds to go spend a third round on a player who would be a same arc type of downfield stretch the field and you know, take the top off. That would be the. What could go wrong for Jameson Williams?

[Andy Holloway]

To me, yeah, there are definite ways it can go wrong but I'm in on Jameson Williams. This is a guy who is being drafted as the wide receiver 27. He finished last year as the wide receiver 18 and he missed two games. So this is I think right now you're drafting him at what his floor is. But he is one of the players that does have breakout potential. He's, you know, one of those drafted to be great guys coming out of college, was supposed to be a superstar. And we had a lot of reports, even kind of behind the scenes of him being a little bit of a knucklehead, maybe worried about work ethic. And then those, those came through in those first few years.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, they did.

[Andy Holloway]

So it all matched. And at that point it seemed like I don't know that this very talented player is ever going to get it together, but it seems like he's got it together. And the fact that the coaching staff is saying good things and they're locking them in and they've figured out how to use them. There is breakout potential with Jameson Williams and if he just goes out and has a ho hum season, he's probably still better than the wide receiver 27 where he's being drafted.

[Jason Moore]

This is, I guess he's under contract next year, right?

[Mike Wright]

Well, yeah, there would be the fifth year option.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So that would be a club option for next season.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

So that was some of the debate you were talking about with the trade. I'm just trying to think of how, what the motivation level is for Jameson Williams.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Because that's oftentimes like if you look at the historical top tier guys, I mentioned it the other day at this age. It's also like with that next contract on the, on the horizon, you know, Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase and those guys, when that money is sitting out there and whether it's on Detroit or someplace else, it's always a motivating factor.

[Andy Holloway]

24 years old is a great age to grab a breakout wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

Number 19, Devonte Adams of the Los Angeles Rams.

[Andy Holloway]

30, not 24 years old.

[Jason Moore]

32 years old. Will be 33 soon. I have him the lowest of the three of us. We have him at 19 by consensus, which we'll see.

[Mike Wright]

We'll see where he is by the end of the day with all the Jared Goff or. I'm not, sorry, not Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford.

[Jason Moore]

Going back in time a little bit.

[Andy Holloway]

I actually did already move him down from this because of the Matthew Stafford news. So I've got him at 19. You are still a couple spots lower.

[Jason Moore]

2 years, $46 million contract last year thanks to Aaron Rodgers. Ran way fewer in and dig routes. Had a lot more corner routes with Rogers. You can expect more motion with Los Angeles.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, you can.

[Jason Moore]

That's one of the things that they do with their receivers. I think we all look to Adams as, you know, not quite leading the team in targets. We think Puka is that guy. But the touchdown potential, boy, that's a variance with Stafford or without for sure.

[Andy Holloway]

And so with Stafford he can have a lot. I think he could have a lot of touchdowns. Although Stafford has really not been a touchdown machine over the last few years.

[Mike Wright]

Kyren is very greedy.

[Andy Holloway]

Kyron has been very greedy and just got paid. But if you look at the second wide receiver next to Puka Nukua, you know, last year Cooper cup, we look not fondly upon what happened because he disappeared at the end of the season. But if you look at the lead up to that and years prior, what the system can do even with a very incredibly heavily targeted Puka Nakua. The first nine games played from Cooper cup he missed a couple of games for injury early. He was on pace for 171 targets himself. And that's a nine game sample. So this is the opportunity for a lot of volume for Devonte Adams is here and the team went out with their transactions and believed. Look, we want to go from Cooper cup to Devonte Adams. We think Cooper cup has lost X, Y or Z and we think Devonte Adams has what we're looking for. Now this is also the team that went out and paid a big bag of money for Alan Robinson. It doesn't mean that all their ideas and scouting is perfect, but if they are correct that Devonte Adams still has it and he certainly still looked like he had it last year, the role on this offense is great and I.

[Jason Moore]

Do, I do love him. With Stafford getting into the end zone, the least amount of touchdowns he scored in the last five years is eight on a season. So it was 18, 11, 14, eight and eight the last two years. And last year you saw the first half of the season when he was not a member of the Jets. I mean you had finishes outside the top 50 and three of the first four weeks he played with them. So you can see it can go bad. He's risky and I think he would be. I think the mental side of like if Stafford wasn't available and you just decided to get out of a bad situation and go into another Jimmy Garoppolo.

[Mike Wright]

I can't even imagine. I just think he would just conversations.

[Andy Holloway]

I think he might just retire, like walk off the field out for the year. And he goes yeah, me too.

[Mike Wright]

I mean I am also out for the year, right? The with the Parsons, the. I don't want to be here anymore.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah. 18 his teammate last year, Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson of the New York jets just signed the big contract. You know, you had the off season quotes from Aaron Glenn, what he's learning about Garrett Wilson just given the ball as much as possible.

[Mike Wright]

That's right, Aaron.

[Jason Moore]

That really hasn't been an issue for Garrett Wilson ever. Like, there's never been a coach that didn't say that. Because the target totals 147, 168, 154. I think they're trying to give it to him as much as possible and.

[Andy Holloway]

It'S not going to change this year. They have no one else to throw the ball to. I mean, they lost Conklin, they lost Devonte Adams, they. Even the rookie replacement, Josh Reynolds. Exactly. And Josh Reynolds is the, is the two. I mean, you know, they bring in Mason, who's dealing with Mason Taylor. Yeah, Mason Taylor, their rookie tight end to replace Tyler Conklin. And now he's dealing with a high ankle sprain. So Garrett Wilson is going to be massively targeted. I am finding myself more and more and more in on Garrett Wilson this year. Really? Yeah. When I, When I see, when I'm welcome aboard. When I'm at ADP and I'm looking at his name, I'm excited to take him. Now, the view I have on Garrett Wilson is that I think he's a very good wide receiver. I do not believe Garrett Wilson is a great, like, I don't think he is a Justin Jefferson. I don't think he's a Jamar Chase.

[Jason Moore]

Well, okay, those are, those are, those are great. All capitals, but I'm. We're just looking for just the first letter.

[Andy Holloway]

No, I get, I get that. But my point is, if you were to switch Garrett Wilson and Jamar Chase on their, you know, respective team. Respective teams. I don't think Garrett Wilson could do what Jamar Chase does.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think any of us would argue that though, by any stretch. I don't think many people out there would.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, he would be better than T. Higgins.

[Jason Moore]

Here's the, here's the devil's advocate case for, for Garrett Wilson. We already have the evidence. We already have the evidence that he can be the highest volume, most important, most targeted wide receiver and finish outside the top 30. Yeah, that's happened. He had 168 target year. He finished at wide receiver, 32 with three touchdowns. He scored seven times last year. Thank you, Aaron Rodgers. You're going to need to score like five plus times in this offense, otherwise you will be Disappointed in the fantasy finish.

[Andy Holloway]

I would agree with that. And if you want to project touchdowns for him this year, Justin Fields does. Does not project to be as good as Aaron Rodgers at that specifically. And the offense projects to be worse than it was last year with. Without devonte Adams and you know, so maybe the touchdowns aren't going to be there for him. I've got him projected for six touchdowns this season, which I think is a good number. But that is sadly, that feels like an optimistic.

[Jason Moore]

There's been some negative press around Justin Fields performance in recent days in King.

[Mike Wright]

There has.

[Jason Moore]

So also, I just think he's just been so up and down as a pastor in his career. So that'll be an interesting situation to watch. But we have him slotted in at 18.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, we're all hoping for that DJ Moore year. I think the. What we don't know for sure is, you know, just what does the jets offense look like? You know, they. Coach Glenn brought his buddy Tanner over from Detroit, so I would imagine they're going to do their best to replicate and duplicate that which would put him.

[Jason Moore]

Danny Tanner from Full House. Yes.

[Andy Holloway]

Perfect.

[Mike Wright]

So, I mean, I imagine it will be, you know, pieces of that. That type of an offense. So do they. Do they try and Almond Raw the role for Garrett Wilson? We don't know yet.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I do think that, I mean, there's a reason he's not in our top 10. Right. I mean, we're talking about wide receiver 18. There are lots of questions and there will be lots of targets and we hope that translates really well. He could be a value right now. His ADP is the wide receiver 15 in the third round.

[Andy Holloway]

I've got him right at wide receiver 15. Personally.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I was gonna say I think I have some guys that I might choose over him just on offensive optimism.

[Andy Holloway]

But I think it is. I think the interesting name to me is Tyree Kill. Like Tyree Kill or Garrett Wilson. They're very, you know, you've got one guy where you've got to have a question about whether he's really lost it. The other guy's obviously up and coming, still young, youthful, the clear one on his team. But Tyreek has that wide receiver 1 range of outcomes still. I think that's, you know, if he hasn't lost it, if it was the wrist last year, if Tua's got there. But how do you play? And for me, if I'm staring down that decision, I'm going to Garrett Wilson.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, one of the things, Garrett Wilson's a dot has dropped three straight years. So you're not getting that. It's very opposite of Tyree Kill on the big plays. DK Metcalf comes in at 17. Metcalf, I have ranked the highest of the three of us starting the Aaron Rodgers era. I don't know if you guys saw the Aaron Rodgers some of the camp.

[Mike Wright]

Stuff from yesterday about which the glaring at Roman Wilson.

[Jason Moore]

No, I mean he glares at everybody. I mean he's glare. He's had a glare at everybody policy for six years now. But that can't feel good. No, it was more like how slow he was going through some of these drills. Like he just looked. He just looked really, really slow going.

[Mike Wright]

Through some of not seen those drills.

[Jason Moore]

But Metcalf, you know, we've talked about him in recent, in recent days when he's over 130 targets, he ends up definitely outpacing his ADP here, which is wide receiver 22. You know, they paid him all that money. He is the alpha. He might be their wide receiver one through three and then they begin at wide receiver four. I mean that's kind of how I look at things. It's been a roller coaster in Seattle. This is a guy that's never quite quite lived up to the potential in my opinion. Like I think physically, speed wise this guy should have been a perennial top like where he started. Seattle wide receiver 7, wide receiver 12, second and third season. That should have been.

[Andy Holloway]

He should have been. It feels like he should have been a Hall of Fame wide receiver. Like go get that yellow jacket.

[Jason Moore]

So I don't know if it's the eating candy all day long. I don't know what it is.

[Andy Holloway]

I'm pretty sure that's part of it.

[Jason Moore]

But you know, he missed some time last year with an MCL sprain. And here we go. It was very good for Devonte Adams to have Aaron Rodgers last year. It was good for Garrett. Wilson finished in the top 10 with Aaron Rodgers. You know, I see Metcalf as a value.

[Mike Wright]

The thing about Metcalf is it should work on paper, it should work Rogers for how we look at how he played last year. It felt like Aaron Rodgers was not good and the jets were not good. But when Garrett Wilson was the wide receiver one. Garrett Wilson was awesome for fantasy. And then Devonte Adams came and took that role. And then Devonte Adams was very good for fantasy football. Pittsburgh made the investment. They said we're going to take DK over George Pickens. They trade draft capital for him. They give him the big Bag of money. He's the number one guy for Aaron Rodgers. It should work.

[Andy Holloway]

The.

[Mike Wright]

It's just, it's hard to get over for me, you know, DK Metcalf just the last three years being a disappointment from where you drafted him. Like, not that wide receiver, 18 or 16 is terrible by any stretch, but it's disappointing from where you drafted him. And then you have the giant bugaboo in the room of Arthur Smith. What does this offense look like? Arthur Smith has toyed with our emotions for several years of having what we consider to be elite fantasy football players. And those guys just don't come through. Like, Bijan didn't come through until Arthur was gone. Drake London didn't come through until Arthur was gone. So I just, I have these concerns about where he is going in or I guess the price isn't too bad. He's in the fifth. Just, I have concerns overall with the situation and the profile.

[Andy Holloway]

It's really hard for me to see how it goes poorly for DK Metcalf. I, you know, Matthew Stafford hasn't been a great fantasy asset in years, but he makes wide receivers unbelievable. Aaron Rodgers does not have to be a great fantasy asset on his own for him to hyper target DK Metcalf and have him be fantastic. I mean, the touchdown totals that, you know, we were just talking about, that came through for Devonte Adams or for Garrett Wilson last year, you know, those came from Aaron Rodgers. This is a team where, I mean, DK Metcalf, who is he competing against? Like Calvin Austin, Robert Woods?

[Jason Moore]

No, he's competing against four tight ends starting on a single play.

[Andy Holloway]

Roman Wilson, Ben Scaroni.

[Jason Moore]

Ooh.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, there's. It's going to be the DK Metcalf show. He'll have 140 targets and they will be decent targets.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And the thing for what I'm talking about with Arthur is like, if you guys haven't seen, you know, the heat maps of the types of routes that these guys are running, like number ones. And look, George Pickens was the number one guy for the Steelers and you look at how bland and unoriginal the routes were for George Pickens versus other number one wide receivers, it's.

[Andy Holloway]

Aaron Rodgers is never going to accept.

[Jason Moore]

Like, I was literally about to say the same thing. That's your coach, that's your offensive coordinator.

[Andy Holloway]

100%. This is one of those, you know, he's not dealing with Desmond Ritter where he can make him do whatever or try to protect, you know, Russell Wilson last year. Yeah. And hide Justin Fields, this is. Aaron Rodgers is going to go out there and I think he, I think maybe in the beginning he's going to give it a shot.

[Jason Moore]

See, I get the.

[Andy Holloway]

Arthur's plan is. And then he's going to throw that in the garbage if he doesn't like. And be like, all right, dk, here's what you're actually running.

[Jason Moore]

And I understand last, last year there were expectations for George Pickens that weren't met, but I, I'm with Jason on that one. I do not like Arthur Smith though, if that's important to the equation.

[Andy Holloway]

Dude, I love Caleb Johnson so much. And every time I think about, like, how much I love Caleb Johnson, Arthur's just sitting on my shoulder going number two.

[Mike Wright]

And for everything negative that I just said about DK Metcalf, I have him ranked above his adp.

[Jason Moore]

So nope, you don't get out. You don't get out of it.

[Mike Wright]

Sorry, I'm just saying that I guess the price is, is acceptable.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we'll take a break and then we get to come back and talk about another player impacted by a recent signing. Lad McConkey comes in at number 16 on our wide receiver rankings.

[Mike Wright]

Wow. Did you guys nerf him that much or did you just have him that low?

[Andy Holloway]

The one. No, no, this was moved down from the.

[Jason Moore]

Mike. Mike or not Mike, Jason had him moved a lot more. I had him at 16 before the move. He's at 18 for me after the move with Keenan Allen and that is. Look, McConkey's awesome. Yeah, he's a great player. The offense though, and the priority of this team is going to be to run the football, to run it well, to be willing to throw it to whoever's open. And there's more players involved now than there were at the end of last year. And I just don't see McConkey scoring double digit touchdowns. So it's not like my projection for him is like he's the target leader on the entire team.

[Andy Holloway]

I have him as target leader as well.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, I have him with very similar numbers that he had last year. More completions in total because he didn't play a full 17 game season last year. But Keenan Allen is a. Is a target monster. I mean, he had a ton last year. 121 targets in Chicago, missing two games with an injury. Adding that to the offense is significant enough to move him down a couple spots.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, lad McConkey is awesome. All three of us here adore and love lad McConkey. He was one of My favorite players going in last year, but, you know, last year he had a 22.9% target share. I've got him down at a 21% market share with Keenan Allen there with, you know, more quality wide receivers to throw the ball to and Tyler Conklin and a good receiver out of the backfield. Two good receivers. I think Najee is a decent receiver out of the backfield. So I believe this is a team that has an extremely smart quarterback. Justin Herbert will find the right guy. You know, I don't think he's going to hyper target anyone. I think he's going to spread the ball around and he's got a lot of targets to go to now. So I really like Ladd. I like his talent. I love this offense. But he did move down quite a bit for me just from a reality of he can't, he can't. Unless Keenan goes down or something happens, he can't be up there at 28% of the team's target. I just can't imagine that being his type of season with what this team wants to do and what, what I believe their personnel allows them to be capable of doing.

[Mike Wright]

Sure, I don't have Lad anywhere near that type of a target share, but I still have him. I moved him down, I think a spot. Like I still have him inside my top 12. He's at number 10 currently for me. As great as, you know, I think Kenan still has things to offer. But a rising superstar in year two who broke out massively in year one, including a dominant playoff game like that matters to me. If you can go out on the biggest stage in your first ever playoff game and be a huge part of the offense. I'm not going to let a 33 year old Keenan Allen stop me from drafting lad McConkey. When you're. Jay, when you're saying Herbert's going to find the right guy, I think the right guy is still lad McConkey. Like, I don't. I think that Lad can operate on anywhere on the football field just with his, his instincts and his football IQ and toughness. So I'm, I'm still drafting him.

[Jason Moore]

His ADP is very high. It's wide receiver 11. So Jason and I are the outlier there. He will adjust.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, his ADP is established before the news this morning of the Keenan Allen signing.

[Mike Wright]

I don't think it goes down too much, but so like I told, I.

[Jason Moore]

Told you this morning, Jay, I barely move Lad in response to the Keenan.

[Andy Holloway]

He went from wide receiver 15 to 20 for me.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. I mean it. I agree that it's not that significant for Lad. It's just a matter of how much, you know, you add two talented rookie wide receivers, you add Keenan Allen, you've got a running game. I just think the dependency is not going to go up on lad McConkey. So I think he's about where he was last year. He was 15th in points per game last season. Obviously ramped up in the second half where he was the wide receiver eight in fantasy. Overall, we saw an adjustment on Herbert's passing percentages. Does that. Is that the plan or is that a result of the.

[Mike Wright]

That's a big question.

[Jason Moore]

J.K. dobbins efficiency dipping into the 2.9 yards per carry range in the second half of the season. That is.

[Andy Holloway]

I certainly think that is part of it. They weren't able to run the ball and so they said, well, we can throw the ball with Herbert, with Najee and Omarion Hampton, I think they're going to be able to run the ball. Their defense has been improved. So this really comes down to, ironically, Justin Herbert's passing attempts. Like, you know, we're talking about what's the target share?

[Mike Wright]

It really does, you know, I've got.

[Andy Holloway]

Him at 21% target share. Maybe he goes to 23% target share, but what share of what? Are they going to be able to run the ball as much as they want to and not throw it? You know, TBD. But, you know, like you said, Ladd was wide receiver 15 and points per game last year. Adding Keenan, adding a couple solid wide receivers and adding Tyler Conklin, I think the ball gets spread around just a bit more.

[Jason Moore]

And number 15, Tyree kill of the Miami Dolphins. The great. Will he return to form? Question. He was not good last year. I mean, you had. We've talked about it a lot this off season, but only two games of 20 plus fantasy points. You couldn't start him with confidence. Even when Tua was back, the big plays were not there. He had more snaps last year, half the yards. So, you know, there was a wrist injury.

[Mike Wright]

Bad math.

[Jason Moore]

There was a surgery and a wrist injury. There were a lot of changes to the offense that didn't look right. I talked about this yesterday. I'm worried about the Dolphins being that team that if something just if it tips the wrong way early on, you know, is Mike McDaniel's going to be there long term and now you've got another injury. You heard this morning about Tyreek Hill. I also really like Jalen Waddle. This year. The camp reports around Jalen Waddle are very positive.

[Mike Wright]

I hear what you're saying. I was a year too early.

[Jason Moore]

You might have been. You might have been. I did joke with Jason yesterday. I was like, man, my guy. Jalen Waddle for Mike the second time in a row. So, you know, where are you with Tyreek?

[Andy Holloway]

And Tyreek is someone you just have to make your call on whether. Because I don't think there's a world where at his ADP is where he finishes. Right now he's being drafted as the wide receiver 13. He's either great and you're getting a steal at wide receiver 13 or he is more done than, you know, what. What you saw last year in 211more snaps. He had 840 fewer yards. He wasn't good for your team, you know, what was he? Wide receiver 20 something last year. So he's, you know, another year older. There's plenty. Yeah. Wide receiver 23 last year second half.

[Mike Wright]

Was significantly better than the opener when where Tua was gone. But it still was not Tyreek Hill. It wasn't the numbers of the number one overall.

[Andy Holloway]

The chunk without Tua obviously hurt. If Tua plays a whole season, there are routes where this can be great. For me personally, I feel like I'm out on Tyree Kill for where he is. I like other wide receivers better and I just don't want to be caught holding the bag if, you know, if he's lost a step because the Tyree Kill plays, they just didn't happen last year.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Number 14, Mike Evans. And this was a home run my guy picked two years ago that I'm now going to be the lowest on Mike Evans of this group going into this season. I'm going to make. I think the streak ends this year. I don't think Mike Evans gets to a thousand receiving yards. I think this is the beginning of the end for Mike Evans.

[Mike Wright]

Wow.

[Jason Moore]

The touchdowns, those will be there. I'm fine with that. But I. But I don't. I do think you're going to start to see the decline and I think that's part of their plan in drafting Egg Buka in giving the money to Godwin. Jalen McMillan is still going to be involved. So Mike Evans comes in at 14, but I got him at 19, which, you know, Jason, you're ahead of ADP.

[Andy Holloway]

Got him a wide receiver 12. He is a wide receiver one to me, which he finished last year despite missing three games.

[Jason Moore]

So where do you weigh in, Mike, in comparison?

[Mike Wright]

I was going to pass it off to Jason because I am closer to your side. Andy of you know, when the season opened, I guess we have to find out what this new offense looks like because to start last year if you had taken Mike Evans and then watched Chris Godwin be draft many rounds later, you were very upset with yourself because Godwin was the one who was absolutely on fire. Mike Evans was really not great for your team. And then it was after the Godwin injury then they start feeding force feeding Mike Evans all those targets. So with with an emergence of McMillan and then Egbuca who I'm with Andy of I really, really like Igbuka, especially at his ADP. How do you see Mike Evans like how do you see the offense shaking out?

[Andy Holloway]

I think Mike Evans is the clear and inarguable number one for this team. With Godwin starting late with Egbuka being a rookie. I mean two years ago when Mike Evans was the wide receiver five in fantasy football he scored 14.3 fantasy points per game. He scored more. Last year he scored 14.5. He was on pace for over 1200 yards. I know he barely got to the thousand. That's because he missed three games.

[Jason Moore]

Isn't there a correlation to your criticism of Baker's outlier season though and expectations for Evans's points per game?

[Andy Holloway]

That's probably on the touchdown side. So if you're saying that you think the touchdowns will definitely be there for him, then that doesn't correlate there. You know, to me Mike Evans is locked in as a top 15 wide receiver. Barring injury, I don't see how it doesn't happen. Baker is a good quarterback. This system is locked in. He's, he knows his role. He's going to get his targets. Now he's not a volume guy, he's not a PPR guy. If you're in a full PPR league, he takes a slight hit there versus a half PPR league. The consistency might not always be there. Even years ago when you were calling, you know, two years ago that wide receiver five finish where he was a my guy for you, you know, the year prior he had a little bit more of a down year and it came very inconsistently. So you know, I don't look at where he's going in drafts and think that the price is too high. He's wide receiver 18 right now in average draft position. I personally think he beats that and I will make a bet on that streak of a thousand yard seasons if you want to, if you want to put that on the board. Water bet.

[Jason Moore]

Okay, sounds good.

[Andy Holloway]

So do you think he's lost a step? Like, did you see something in film that made you believe the beginning of.

[Jason Moore]

The end is here when you catch 70 something passes a year and you add these other weapons that are just, you know, better PPR options? I mean, part of last year's resurgence was the absence of Chris Godwin. Yes, it was for half of the year. So, you know, he's at that age too. Like you can't just keep doing what you're doing. I think he's entering the Larry Fitzgerald late career arc and if he happens to be at eight touchdowns with his volume, I think you're going to be disappointed. That's. But we have a difference of opinion there.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

JSN comes in at 13. Talked about him extensively yesterday. So if you want to hear the bull case of JSN or as some of you did, just vehemently disagree with me on every front and share that with us, you can. That was on yesterday's Ice and fire episode. 23 years old, the wide receiver 10 last year being drafted at the wide receiver 12. He's, you know, you talk about those second year guys, Mike, where their ADP is steamed up too high. I don't, I don't know if that's happening with JSN. He's.

[Mike Wright]

Well, he's going as the 12th wide receiver off the board.

[Jason Moore]

Right. But I mean, at least in proportion to where he finished, it's not outlandish. Like we're not, we're not Bucky Irving, this thing.

[Mike Wright]

He's not the fifth guy to go.

[Jason Moore]

Up to five or four or something like that. I just think that this is one of those situations you look at. You can mirror it to New York if you want to the jets and there's JSN and everybody else and there's Garrett Wilson and everybody else. I think Tori Horton's going to end up being the wide receiver three there got a rookie at tight end. We've got Cooper cup on his last legs. I just have the confidence that the volume is going to be there and that's why I have him ranked at 10 overall. You guys have them slightly lower. But I think, I don't think there's huge differences of opinion here.

[Mike Wright]

No, no, I'm not completely out on JSN. I just at that 304, you know, wide receiver 12. I'd prefer a couple other guys at 12 overall.

[Jason Moore]

Marvin Harrison Jr. Comes in at 12. His ADP is wide receiver 16. So we're homers is the I think is the expected refrain to hear. So we're slightly above adp. Marvin Harrison. Is this a palatable draft price for Marvin Harrison going into his sophomore year after a an up and down rookie season?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, I think this is, you know, he's being drafted as a mid level wide receiver too and it's much better. He's being drafted higher than he finished last year when he finished as the wide receiver 28. So you got to pay a little bit. But if he has that breakout season, you're still getting a steal. He put on a lot of weight in the off season and it looks good how he's using it in camp. Look, lots of highlights of him dominating, going up, grabbing, you know, contested catches. So does it happen we know that Kyler can support a true wide receiver one when he's had it with DeAndre Hopkins. The question is, will the Cardinals defense get better their run game? Will they slow it down? Will they try to take the ball out of Kyler's hands a little bit more? The nice thing, you know, Marvin doesn't have a lot of target competition. You've got Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison and then a bunch of.

[Mike Wright]

We're very consolidated. It's, it's, hopefully it's very Kansas City Chiefs where it's Tyreek and it's Travis Kelsey and you just don't have to worry about anybody else.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that, that's, that's what you're banking on. But it is a projection. He was really inconsistent when he scored a touchdown last year. Awesome. Almost 17 fantasy points a game. When he didn't score, you didn't get PPR numbers. You got five fantasy points a game and a lot of tears and losses for fantasy. So he was a player that really.

[Mike Wright]

I think emotionally, oh, it was brutal starting him because just when you thought you, you were out, you're like, I'm going to find the difference path for my fantasy team. Then he'd have a spike week and you'd be your chips would go all the way back in and then he would just let you down over and over. Target share wise he was at 21%. You know, that's good for a rookie. Yeah. So Garrett Wilson as a rookie was 22%. AJ Brown was 20, CD Lamb was at 19. So there.

[Jason Moore]

If you want to know what it.

[Mike Wright]

Wasn'T, it wasn't as disappointing. We've said this all offseason. His year in totality of nearly 900 yards and eight receiving touchdowns is not a bad rookie year. It's a bad rookie year for a player where the expectation was we, I think he was going in the second round.

[Andy Holloway]

He was drafted as that the 1, 2 turn. He was like a first rounder, a second rounder, depending on, you know, which league you were in.

[Jason Moore]

The. Yeah, you talk about target share. I'm most concerned with the way they were using him and where those targets on the field were. If you look at, if you want to look at the film and you want to look at what Marvin Harrison struggled with, 69% of his targets were 10 plus yards down the field. You look at neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr. Those were under 50%. For both those guys, they were, you know, lower, lower probability, lower probability targets. That's why you see variance. That's why you see 10 games of 4.7 fantasy points a game. When you don't score, you do. You need the layups, Mike. You need the slant routes, you need the outs. And his, to be honest. That's where you can, you can look at his performance and say that was not what you expected from a top five pick. He wasn't physical enough. He couldn't get off the line of scrimmage sometimes. He couldn't win the 50, 50 balls. And he wasn't being used because he couldn't do that. So he's obviously, that has to change.

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah. And he's obviously, he has changed his body to change that. He has worked hard. This is not a guy resting on his laurels or his draft, you know, capital. His rookie season is so close to identical to DK Metcalf's rookie season. You know, near the same targets, near the same receptions, near the same yards, near the same receiving touchdowns and near the same fantasy finish the year two for DK Metcalf. He went from the wide receiver 32 to the wide receiver seven. And that was based on more downfield, winning more touchdowns. And if you look at a guy who could go into year two with, you know, touchdown prowess getting double digits, that's, that's in the range of outcomes for, for Marv.

[Jason Moore]

T. Higgins comes in at number 11. The last name we'll talk about today. I have him at 16, Jason at 11 on the dot, which is where he is here today. Mike at 12. ADPs wide receiver 14. And you know, we've been around the block with T. Higgins several times, right? We've had him. Mike has grabbed his hand and taken a stroll with T. Higgins season after season. There's a lot to like about T. Higgins. It's strange because he is also a player where the per game metrics, the per route metrics, all that stuff looks amazing.

[Andy Holloway]

But when you just don't look at games played.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. When you get to the end of the year and the fantasy finish, we never get to say he's inside the top 15. But maybe, maybe that can change. You have the most efficient quarterback in football and Joe Burrow. You've got Jamar Chase soaking up coverage on the other side. I mean, this is the best tandem in football. It's just a little bit hairy in the middle of the third round, just making that call, making that decision. There are other players to choose from. Right. We're not sitting there where he's some super value. No, you, you're, you're going to be taking him.

[Andy Holloway]

I mean, he's going right now. Tyree Kill or T. Higgins and Breeze Hall. Those are the.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, those three. I'm going to take the Higgins.

[Andy Holloway]

Right. If you go, if you go deeper. If you go deeper, you can also get Marvin Harrison, Garrett Wilson, Terry McLaurin.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Andy Holloway]

So when I look at that, that's.

[Jason Moore]

You cheated on that one. Because if you say Breeze Hall's name around anybody, you know, I'm not going.

[Mike Wright]

To cheat some stank.

[Andy Holloway]

When I look at that. I'm fine with T. Higgin. You know, I've taken him in a lot of mock drafts. T. Higgins on a per game basis was absolutely outstanding. Even better last year than he had been in the past. His metrics, next to Jamar Chase, they're not that different. 26% target share to 23% target share.

[Jason Moore]

This is for last year?

[Andy Holloway]

Yeah, in particular for last year. 25% targets per outrun to 24% yards per outrun. 2.4 to 2.1. First read targets like, where's Joe Burrow going pre snap? 34% to 30%. It's like T. Higgins is, he's. He's a 1B. It's just 1A is maybe the best wide receiver in the entire league.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, is, is, is his historical points per game valuable to you or is 15 and a half last year? Because that was way above where he's been.

[Andy Holloway]

So his. So.

[Jason Moore]

And he missed five games. That's the other part of the story.

[Andy Holloway]

So the historical points per game, this is. So you have to make a lot of apologies for T. Higgins. If you go and you take out. If you go and you take out the games where he started and it was injured, you know, played 2% of the snaps, which is super. Unfortunately not just one or two or three. It's like it's happened like five times. When you take those out, you like the points per game are actually pretty darn good. He's always been right there.

[Jason Moore]

Well, you don't get to take them.

[Andy Holloway]

Out just behind him. No, no, no, that's, that's the decision.

[Jason Moore]

Because the five missed games don't include the games he played. 2% of snaps.

[Andy Holloway]

It's like we're talking about Kenneth Walker and I find myself in on T. Higgins and out on Kenneth Walker, but it's the same argument. This is a very, very talented player. Now when I stat him out and he comes to wide receiver 11, guess what, I've statted him for 17 games. Maybe that is absolute foolishness. Now I do think if he plays 17 games, he's going to be a great fantasy asset. So the question is just, you know, is this a quote unquote injury prone player that you will not get that from or, you know, based on his contract and he's paid to be out there, you know, he gets his money on roster bonus checks.

[Mike Wright]

Does he get the check, the game day check? If he plays 2% of snaps, probably no, that's not good.

[Andy Holloway]

That's not good.

[Mike Wright]

That's not good. That's going to work against you, Cincinnati.

[Andy Holloway]

Come on. Meet, meet. Higgins needs to, he needs to shine. He needs to be out there.

[Jason Moore]

12 games last year, 12 games the year before. That is the story.

[Andy Holloway]

We need healthy meat.

[Jason Moore]

There are a handful of players you don't have to take if you don't want to take them because you just don't want to go through that experience again and that's totally fine. Yeah, he's not, like I said, he's not a super discount. This is not someplace where like all that is being baked in because he had such a great points per game season and he's got such a great quarterback and a need to throw the football. You know, I think he came out. He's got 100 catch target on the year. And he's always been more of the Mike Evans, you know, his career high in receptions in a year. 74. And he's done that like three times. 74. 74. 73. That's about where he normally ends up.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. So imagine 17 games.

[Jason Moore]

Impossible. Impossible. He probably doesn't. I. If you asked T. Higgins how many games are in a season, I don't know if he knows the answer. Yeah, I don't know if he could answer you with. He'd be like, I have no idea. 12.

[Andy Holloway]

It is very common year after year after year for teams to have two top 24 wide receivers. For teams to have two top 12 wide receivers, like when you have a good offense and a great quarterback, it is not uncommon for two wide receivers to be in the top 12. And that's kind of how I see if any offense could do that, which is common, it would be the Cincinnati Bengals with the bad defense and Joe Burrow.

[Jason Moore]

All right, tomorrow we're going to count down the top 10 fantasy wide receivers. We've got a mock draft episode on the way as well. We've got running back rankings to get into our top 10 tips and tricks and the my guys, we'll lock those in. We'll share them with you very, very soon. I think that's on the docket for next week. Check out the ultimate draft kit atultimatedraftkit.com. i think Jason just found out that the my guys. Yeah, it's next because you're not locked in on yours.

[Andy Holloway]

Oh, man.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Next meet.

[Andy Holloway]

Next meet. Okay. All right.

[Jason Moore]

Thank you for joining us today. Shout out to the Doosers minus Josh, and we'll catch you on tomorrow's episode.

[Mike Wright]

Goodbye.

[Jason Moore]

Give me that smelling salt. Where's that smelling salt?

[Mike Wright]

Josh has it.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter the FFballers.