WR Rankings Part Two + Buy/Sell, Sam Bowie'd - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/12

Summary

Fantasy Footballers Podcast Summary: "WR Rankings Part Two + Buy/Sell, Sam Bowie'd" (August 12, 2020)

In the August 12, 2020 episode of the Fantasy Footballers Podcast, hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright delve into the second part of their wide receiver (WR) rankings. The episode also features their Buy/Sell segment, where they evaluate specific receivers outside their top 20 for potential draft advantages. Below is a comprehensive summary of the episode's key discussions, insights, and conclusions.

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1. Buy/Sell Segment: Evaluating Wide Receivers

Focus Player: Keenan Allen

• Discussion: The trio begins by assessing Keenan Allen, noting his unusual clavicle as seen on "Hard Knocks" and its potential impact on his performance.

  Jason Moore [03:43]: "Keenan Allen might be the absolute hardest wide receiver to rank this year because he's a great player... but he has to see that volume."

• Insights:

  • Keenan Allen's performance heavily relies on quarterback play, specifically whether the team sticks with Tyrod Taylor or moves to Justin Herbert.
  • Mike Wright expresses uncertainty about Allen's consistent fantasy output due to these factors.

  Mike Wright [05:06]: "He could be a top 12 wide receiver, but we have to see that volume."

• Conclusion: Both Mike and Cortland Sutton decide to sell Keenan Allen, anticipating potential underperformance relative to his Average Draft Position (ADP).

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2. Wide Receiver Rankings Analysis

A. Adam Thielen

• Discussion: Thielen's ranking is scrutinized due to his injury-plagued 2019 season and the Minnesota Vikings' shift to a run-heavy offense.

  Jason Moore [15:32]: "He had 391 yards and six touchdowns through the first six games... I would love to draft Thielen in the third round."

• Insights:

  • Despite last year's setbacks, both Mike and Cortland view Thielen as a viable WR1 option if he regains his previous form.
  • Concerns remain about the Vikings' offensive strategy and defense strength.

  Cortland Sutton [17:00]: "He was a top 10 wide receiver... he's still a great wide receiver who's the clear one for a team that is going to have a pretty good offense."

• Conclusion: The hosts are optimistic about Thielen's bounce-back potential, positioning him favorably in their rankings.

B. Cooper Kupp

• Discussion: Kupp's role in the Rams' offense and his consistency are topics of debate.

  Jason Moore [19:06]: "Hard to predict touchdown totals year over year... Kupp's one of those players that I'd put in the top five with the double-digit touchdown capability."

• Insights:

  • Concerns about Kupp's reception perception against press coverage and the overall offensive scheme of the Rams.
  • Mike Wright remains cautious, citing uncertainties within the Rams' offense.

  Mike Wright [20:45]: "Cooper Cup won't return on where he's being drafted in my projections."

• Conclusion: While Cortland Sutton remains bullish on Kupp, Mike Wright opts to hold back, reflecting varying confidence levels among the hosts.

C. Allen Robinson

• Discussion: Robinson's consistent undervaluation due to past injuries and subpar quarterback play is examined.

  Jason Moore [24:33]: "He is being drafted as the wide receiver 12."

• Insights:

  • Disparities in rankings highlight Robinson's potential versus his current ADP.
  • The impact of a new quarterback, Nick Foles, is considered pivotal for Robinson's performance.

  Cortland Sutton [25:00]: "I believe in Robinson. He's a great wide receiver."

• Conclusion: The hosts recognize Robinson's talent but remain divided on his draft position, with some advocating for higher rankings based on his potential resurgence.

D. Mike Evans

• Discussion: Evans' ranking sparks significant disagreement, with Cortland expressing strong dislike for his placement.

  Cortland Sutton [33:00]: "He is a great wide receiver. I hate my ranking."

• Insights:

  • Mike Evans' consistent 1,000-yard seasons and improved quarterback play under Tom Brady are weighed against his current draft position.
  • The offensive strategy and Brady's propensity to target Evans in the red zone are debated.

  Jason Moore [34:09]: "He shares the field with another great wide receiver... Tom Brady's got a level of determination that is unmatched."

• Conclusion: While Mike Evans is undeniably talented, his current ADP doesn't align with the hosts' assessments of his value, leading to mixed feelings about his ranking.

E. DJ Chark & A.J. Brown

• Discussion: Both receivers are analyzed for their breakout potential and fit within their respective teams.

  Jason Moore [41:49]: "DJ Chark's last year ranks first among all players in separation over expectation."

• Insights:

  • DJ Chark's historical performance and potential under a favorable offensive scheme are highlighted.
  • A.J. Brown's boom-bust nature and dependency on Ryan Tannehill's quarterback play are scrutinized.

• Conclusion: Calvin Ridley and Odell Beckham Jr. receive attention for their high ceilings but are tempered with concerns about consistency and team dynamics. Ty Hilton and JuJu Smith-Schuster are discussed as undervalued picks with significant upside, though injury risks remain a concern.

---

3. Discussion on "Hard Knocks" and COVID-19 Impact

Reflection on "Hard Knocks" Episode

• Discussion: The hosts share their reactions to the "Hard Knocks" episode focusing on COVID-19 and its effects on NFL teams.

  Mike Wright [11:25]: "Seeing Anthony Lynn really talk about getting the virus... it was refreshing to see these players as human beings."

• Insights:

  • Optimism about the NFL's handling of COVID-19 protocols despite challenges.
  • Appreciation for players' transparency and vulnerability regarding their experiences with the virus.

  Cortland Sutton [12:42]: "It's always refreshing to see these players as human beings."

• Conclusion: The hosts express a positive outlook on the NFL's measures to manage COVID-19, acknowledging both the risks and the human element involved.

---

4. Final Rankings and Recommendations

Throughout the episode, the Fantasy Footballers provide individualized rankings and recommendations for numerous wide receivers, balancing their historical performances, team dynamics, and potential for the upcoming season. Key takeaways include:

• High-Value Picks: Players like Adam Thielen and Cooper Kupp are viewed as strong candidates to outperform their ADP, provided their health and offensive environments remain favorable.

• Cautious Selections: Receivers such as Mike Evans and Allen Robinson are approached with caution due to concerns about their current team setups and potential inconsistencies.

• Undervalued Gems: Ty Hilton and JuJu Smith-Schuster are identified as undervalued options that could provide significant upside, especially in deeper leagues.

---

Notable Quotes

• Jason Moore [03:43]: "Keenan Allen might be the absolute hardest wide receiver to rank this year because he's a great player... but he has to see that volume."

• Mike Wright [05:06]: "He could be a top 12 wide receiver, but we have to see that volume."

• Cortland Sutton [17:00]: "He was a top 10 wide receiver... he's still a great wide receiver who's the clear one for a team that is going to have a pretty good offense."

• Jason Moore [24:33]: "He is being drafted as the wide receiver 12."

• Cortland Sutton [33:00]: "He is a great wide receiver. I hate my ranking."

• Mike Wright [34:09]: "He shares the field with another great wide receiver... Tom Brady's got a level of determination that is unmatched."

---

Conclusion

The Fantasy Footballers' August 12, 2020 episode provides in-depth analysis of wide receiver rankings, highlighting the complexities of player valuations based on team dynamics, historical performances, and potential for the upcoming season. The hosts offer a blend of optimism and caution, encouraging listeners to consider both the upside and risks associated with each receiver. By incorporating notable quotes and comprehensive discussions, this episode serves as a valuable resource for fantasy football enthusiasts aiming to refine their draft strategies.

Transcript

[Andy Holloway]

Hey, it's me, the guy who introduces the show. Listen to my amazing voice. Now check out the amazing ultimate Draft kit. The guys spent all off season creating this bad boy and they keep it updated all off season. It's got their full projections, breakouts, sleepers, busts, over a hundred player profile videos. It's even got a mobile app. Has my incredible voice lulled you into a deep sense of trust and commitment? Perfect. Now check out ultimatedraftkit.com and get ready to win your league. Now back to the show.

[Mike Wright]

It's Cortland Sutton, wide receiver for the Denver Broncos, and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers.

[Andy Holloway]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore and Mike Wright.

[Jason Moore]

Oh, welcome in.

[Mike Wright]

Hey everybody. What a Delightful day.

[Jason Moore]

Wednesday, August 12, 2020. The fantasy footballers, Annie, Mike and Jason, back with you. Welcome in. If you're brand new. Thank you for joining us.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

If you've been here before, thank you for joining us.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, a little bit less so.

[Cortland Sutton]

Oh, certainly you've already subscribed. These new listeners still need to subscribe. So please do.

[Mike Wright]

The old cable company like we. If you're a new customer, you're the best.

[Cortland Sutton]

Forcing you to switch or, or cell phone companies.

[Jason Moore]

If it's a cable company though, that means that our new listeners get the UDK for $0.18. Right. And then the existing users, it's $230.

[Mike Wright]

Been supporting us for a while. Thanks.

[Cortland Sutton]

Yeah, whatever.

[Jason Moore]

Do we have one of those 1, 800 numbers for canceling our subscription?

[Cortland Sutton]

Oh, yeah. You must call. There's no online. And when you call, you'll get a voicemail saying, here's where you can mail your cancellation letter. Printed words do not count. This has to be handwritten.

[Jason Moore]

No, here's the truth notarized as well.

[Cortland Sutton]

Foot Clan.

[Mike Wright]

Yes, of course.

[Cortland Sutton]

We love you, we appreciate you, we thank you. We're here for you.

[Jason Moore]

And thanks for subscribing and reviewing the show on Apple Podcasts. We appreciate that as well.

[Mike Wright]

Yep.

[Jason Moore]

You can find us on Twitter ffballers if you want to know all of the latest happenings around here, which are bountiful happenings.

[Cortland Sutton]

That's well said.

[Jason Moore]

Good morning, everybody. Ultimate DraftKit.com for the UDK. A dollar from every UDK goes to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. We're partnering with them once in 2020 to help support St. Jude. And let's get into some Buy, Sell.

[Andy Holloway]

Buy or Sell presented by Pristine Auction.

[Jason Moore]

We have another wide receiver rankings show today and our Buy Sell follows that theme. And we've brooks has chosen three guys outside of our top 20 for today's buy sell segment. So buy or sell these wide receivers to outperform their current average draft position. Starting with the man with a strange clavicle, Keenan Allen.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, a little bit.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, a lot of bit. That's not how an arm should look.

[Mike Wright]

Well, Matthew Betts, our injury guy, did post about it on Twitter and he said, don't worry about it.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, we're referring to Keenan Allen on zoom on Hard Knocks, which was. It's like the equivalent of the wide receiver with the fingers that are all bent the wrong way. This was like taking it to the next level.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, we know it's not supposed to look like that.

[Jason Moore]

His shoulder grew something special. His current average app position is the wide receiver 21. Will Keenan Allen outperform that ADP? Buy or sell?

[Mike Wright]

Keenan Allen might be the absolute hardest wide receiver to rank this year because he's. He's a great player. He's an elite route runner. He deserves volume, but he, he has to see that volume. And aside from like, I think his rookie year, you know, he was hitting. Hitting off big plays, but since then it's just been he needs volume and will he actually get that if it's Taylor as the quarterback or if it's Herbert at quarterback? And we're. We just don't know. I currently have him to ranked two spots behind his adp, but like, his range of outcomes is he's a great wide receiver. It's wild to me. Like, he could. Could he be a top 12 wide receiver?

[Cortland Sutton]

Yeah, it's not without the realm of possibility. I mean, if. If Tyrod Taylor ends up being the starter for the whole season, which I think is a realistic outcome, it looks okay. If that were to happen and, and Keenan goes a little bit deeper and isn't just the possession guy, he could finish there. I don't have that happening.

[Jason Moore]

So, Mike, did you sell or did you buy?

[Mike Wright]

I passed it over to Jason.

[Cortland Sutton]

This one's tough. I'm going to sell. I project that Herbert will get on the field at some point. I think that the deep threat will stay Mike Williams.

[Jason Moore]

This is not buy, sell, pass.

[Cortland Sutton]

No, no, no. I'm selling, Mike. Yeah, come on.

[Mike Wright]

Look, I just, I set him up with an incredible argument. I laid out all the sides of it.

[Jason Moore]

And your response was for nothing.

[Mike Wright]

No, I was making it way easier for.

[Cortland Sutton]

Andy has brought this up in the past, but I want to bring the specificity to it. Larry Fitzgerald in the middle of his prime, obviously great Route runner, great hands, best, you know, maybe the second best wide receiver of all time in the middle of his prime after finishing Fantasy Wide Receiver 5. And well, before coming back with, you know, three in a row. Top 12 years when he had bad quarterback play, he was the wide receiver 37, 17 and 52 in back to back in his prime.

[Mike Wright]

Well, here's the thing here to 17 in there.

[Jason Moore]

Here's a spoiler alert. I'm going to buy that all three of these players outperform their adp. The reason that they have this ADP is because I'm not going to know when they're going to do the damage. The Tyrod Taylor factor with Keenan Allen, I am not confident that Keenan will be a consistent fantasy output. He will ball out because he's great. The other two guys on the list, Julian Edelman at wide receiver 30, Michael Gallup at wide receiver 32. I think all three of these will outperform their ADP. Assuming they don't get hurt. Do I think I'll be able to predict when it happens? No, I don't have confidence in that.

[Cortland Sutton]

So would you draft them at their adp? You're on the clock. You're right here at their average draft position. You know, value. Will you put them on your fantasy roster?

[Jason Moore]

I mean, it's hard to look at Julian Edelman, who finished as the wide receiver 10 last year, Michael Gallup, who finished at wide receiver 22 last year, look at them in the seventh round and say, I'm not going to draft them. I mean, I. Sure. I mean, those names are going to be hard to. Keenan Allen is going to be hard to pass up in the fifth round when I'm staring down that name versus somebody else. That has been less proven. But yeah, I mean, I draft all of them at their draft position.

[Cortland Sutton]

I think the only person that I'm going to draft at their draft position is Michael Gallup. If you look at the situation of all three of these guys, it's gotten worse for Edelman, gotten worse for Keenan Allen, which is why they're lower. But for Michael Gallup, I don't believe his situation's gotten worse. He's coming into year three, same system, same quarterback. Now, perception is that it's gotten worse because CD Lamb has come in, but I don't think that hurts him right now.

[Jason Moore]

What about the Blake Jarwin target hog?

[Cortland Sutton]

Well, I mean, you lost Jason Whitten and you lost Randall Cobb, 83 targets each.

[Mike Wright]

Jarwin is going to get his.

[Cortland Sutton]

I Hope he gets 83 targets and a week. Yeah. It's Jarwin season.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. So the only one you're buying is Michael Gallup in terms of drafting Mike.

[Mike Wright]

I'm willing to draft all three of these guys. I mean Keenan Allen, who's three straight years as a top 12 wide receiver. I get it. You know, bringing up the comp to Larry Taylor is an adequate quarterback. It's not that he is bad at all. It's. It's the volume. Would the volume get there? Will, is he willing to check down a little bit more to keep his eyes downfield without running? Because that's part of Taylor's game. That's why he's good at doing what he does. So this is not Derek, but we.

[Jason Moore]

Went down this road with and now Sammy's proven to be inconsistent forever. But Sammy Watkins was a top 15 wide receiver draft capital wise when Tyrod was there and destroyed people's fantasy leagues.

[Cortland Sutton]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Mahomes can't even get Sammy walk doesn't do anything. I am glad Taylor can.

[Cortland Sutton]

I am glad you you bring up the fact though that the comp to Larry isn't completely fair because this isn't an atrocious quarterback. Yes.

[Jason Moore]

So we don't know what he is right now. I mean, the last time we saw him out there, he was not great for Cleveland. He was not great for Cleveland. It has been a while. We know 3,000 yards is probably the peak of what you'd get from Tyrod Taylor. So. Yeah, those are the question marks. It's funny though that you. You selected the guy who finished wide receiver 22 and. And not either of the guys that were in the top 10 last year. If they were to take a step back significantly, maybe they'd be at 22.

[Cortland Sutton]

But I mean, arrow up versus arrow down. I look to the future, my friends.

[Jason Moore]

Gallup is an arrow sideways for me.

[Mike Wright]

I'm in with Gallup and I got to apparently adjust.

[Jason Moore]

You're going to get him everywhere then.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I'm with it. And I'm with Julian Edelman too. I think like Cam. I believe Cam is ready to go. And the last time we saw a healthy Cam, he was a different quarterback. He was an accurate quarterback. And Julian Edelman's coming off the most yards of his career. He look injury risk. Absolutely. But as my wide receiver two or even three, I'm with that.

[Jason Moore]

We could have bought or sold like 10 question marks per player.

[Mike Wright]

Oh yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Each question that was buy or sell brought to you by pristine auction. Recently auctioned. Keenan Allen signed Jersey went for $77. Michael Gallup signed Jersey went for $72.

[Mike Wright]

Nice.

[Jason Moore]

They got fantasy week starting tomorrow, which is an auction dedicated to active fantasy football players. So they're building out something special for you.

[Cortland Sutton]

Nice.

[Jason Moore]

Very nice.

[Mike Wright]

Which means that Blake Jarwin jerseys will be available.

[Jason Moore]

That's likely. They made more than1pristine.auction.com use the code Ballers get a $10 credit towards that first sports memorabilia purchase. We don't have any news and notes we're going to get into. On today's episode, we have the wide receiver rankings part two today. I will. I know both of you watched Hard Knocks last night. I saw five minutes of it before I fell asleep, tried to fall asleep. And I saw enough to see, you know, Anthony Lynn tell everybody that he had Covid. And from my understanding, most of the episode was dominated by that storyline.

[Mike Wright]

It was.

[Jason Moore]

What was your reaction to the episode?

[Mike Wright]

My reaction on was actually optimism. I mean, we're all inundated with COVID news non stop.

[Jason Moore]

Never heard of it.

[Mike Wright]

So I get the fact that people when they're watching it, they're like, oh, here we go again. More Covid news. But it look, the NFL, they're showing you what the NFL wants you to see, of course. But they really do look like they are taking the steps that they can take and they can control. Obviously, they're going to be on the field, running into each other, breathing on each other, spitting on each other. You can't prevent contact then. But all the other times, they're working on it. Man, I love seeing McVeigh up there saying, guys, we got to be better at this. I need to be better at this. Please hold me accountable. And they're. The fact that Lynn jumped on that Zoom meeting at the beginning of the episode, said, I can't promise you you won't get it. I got it. And everyone's like, whoa, okay, now I. Now I know someone who got it. And hearing Anthony Lynn really talk about getting the virus, saying, you know, I'm. I'm used to fixing the problem. And then I got infected, and now I'm part of the problem. So it was like seeing the man, Anthony Lynn. It's just. It was. It was refreshing. It's always refreshing to see these players as human beings.

[Cortland Sutton]

Because that's my favorite part. But your thoughts are way deeper than mine. Because my favorite part was watching these, per the usual.

[Mike Wright]

Jason.

[Cortland Sutton]

Because my. My favorite part was watching these. Just. I know your favorite part. Unbelievable. These guys are the strongest.

[Mike Wright]

Juice, Aaron, Donald with his shirt off. Well, no.

[Cortland Sutton]

Yeah, well. Oh, My goodness.

[Mike Wright]

That is. That's not allowed.

[Cortland Sutton]

My problem or my point here is watching them get the tests and worry about the needles and worry about the Q tips and the nose and they're all worth. Wait, I want to see him go first. I love it. I love watching these.

[Jason Moore]

Just, you can relate.

[Cortland Sutton]

Superhuman.

[Jason Moore]

Well, that's part of being an athlete, right?

[Cortland Sutton]

I am like, you know, I know you guys look at me and go, that's a man.

[Mike Wright]

That's a 1% athlete.

[Cortland Sutton]

It makes me feel good knowing that I'm not the only superhuman. We'll use the word superhuman that also has fears of things like needles and spiders.

[Jason Moore]

Now, yesterday was the day that you jumped and hurt yourself because of an ice cream wrapper.

[Cortland Sutton]

That is correct.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. It's going to be interesting. I mean, the NFL or the NHL and the NBA has proven this incredible fact that if you don't have the virus, you can't get the virus right. That's what it's all about. In either of those leagues you've had negative tests after negative tests. So if players are responsible, if more teams do these bubbles, you're going to have a situation where, yeah, I mean they're colliding into each other on the NBA court and they're not catching the virus because they don't have it. So hopefully that's the case that we get in the NFL.

[Andy Holloway]

Wide receivers.

[Jason Moore]

But obviously wear your masks in the car. That is when you're driving by yourself.

[Mike Wright]

I don't judge people who want a mask up in the car. That's fine.

[Cortland Sutton]

They're just uncomfortable.

[Jason Moore]

I judge them. All right, number 11, Adam Thielen. Our consensus. Where are we going? Brooks? Top 24 today maybe. Yeah, yeah, right. All right, number 11, Adam Thielen. 15 on my list, 11 on Jason's 13 on Mike's injury plagued season. No more Stefan Diggs coming off of eight, number 10 and number seven finish in 2017 and 2018. And you know, this is a team that made a huge transition last year to being a very low passing volume team. This is Dalvin Cook's team last season. Thielen finished at 61. Like I said, injuries throughout the year and really hurt fantasy owners. Really left some burns because he tried to come back in Week 9 against Kansas City and scored zero points.

[Cortland Sutton]

A lot of people started him there.

[Jason Moore]

He tried to come back in weeks 15 and 16 when he finished 63rd and 112. Maybe you gave up.

[Cortland Sutton]

People started him by then.

[Jason Moore]

Yes. Learned your lesson. But you guys are both pretty optimistic about Adam Thielen. Having a bounce back in 2020?

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he was, he was great up until the first injury. Through those first six games he had 391 yards and six touchdowns. And yet look, it's a low volume offense but 63 receptions and over 1100 yards, that's what Stefan Diggs had last year. That's what Adam Thielen does not have to compete with anymore. Now it's either first round pick Justin Jefferson or someone else. Like it's, it's not 1A, 1B. Who's, who's the man for the Minnesota Vikings? It's Adam Thielen. And he, if you're watching him playing those first few games, he hadn't lost anything. He just, he suffered an injury and couldn't make it back to health. So I'm still in on Thielen. That, that I really, I would love to draft Thielen in the third round.

[Cortland Sutton]

Yeah, I am in on Thielen. Here's why. Three years ago he was a top 10 wide receiver. Two years ago he's a top 10 wide receiver. But then last year they changed to being a run heavy team that passes the ball far less. And before he got injured through the first six weeks he was a top 10 wide receiver. So the only time we've seen him healthy on the field he's been a top 10 wide receiver. He's not over the hill. You know, he's.

[Jason Moore]

I think, I think last year's numbers were more deceptive though.

[Cortland Sutton]

You're saying that because of the touchdowns. But what I would argue is that the volume coming down and being a defense and run first team is going to make the efficiency you're passing maybe near the goal line more, more touchdown opportunities per pass than what it was. But here's the, the slight argument I would change from the just efficiency only. Minnesota's defense has to be good to run the ball. They have to be in, you know, I mean that's just, you can't just run the ball highest in the league when you're down. It's, it's impossible. Minnesota's defense is no longer great. I believe that this year Minnesota's defense is going to stink. I base that on the fact that they've lost a lot of their good players and at the second half of last year they stunk. And if you look at the pace between Kirk Cousins first half and second half of the season, he was on pace for 100 more targets in the second half than in the first half because he had to. And that's My thing with the Vikings, I, I know they want to be defense and run and they're going to do everything in their power to run the ball and I think they'll be good at it because of coops. But at some point I don't think they throw as little as they did last year.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, the Adam Thielen pace on receptions, which is why I brought up the deceiving numbers. He was only on pace for 60 receptions through the first seven weeks. So those weeks, even though he was putting up fantasy finishes, he scored in all but two of those weeks. Which was a little bit like the end of the year for Cooper cup when you didn't see the passing volume. Sure. And so I think he's a little bit more touchdown dependent than we think and there's a little bit more risk. That's why I have him a little bit lower. But he is the guy. He's the guy. I don't think 130 targets are going to come his way again myself.

[Cortland Sutton]

That's, that's fair because I, you know, when he was living the huge target life, that was a different offense. But I think at the end of the day he's still a great wide receiver who's the clear one for a team that is going to have a pretty good offense. And so that's, you know, for those reasons, Shark Tank, I'm in.

[Jason Moore]

Okay. Cooper Cup.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Cooper cup at number 12 just brought him up last year. 94 for 11, 61 and 10 on 134 targets. He was outstanding. But the end of the year we've talked about it a lot. The numbers came down for Cooper Cup. His good weeks were touchdown dependent. He wasn't on the field as much as Robert woods and the team was running some two tight end sets quite frequently.

[Mike Wright]

It was funny on Hard Knocks last night there was a scene when they were running the hurry up and McVeigh shouting stay in the 12, stay in 12. And I'm like oh, oh no.

[Jason Moore]

Well, and you brought up yesterday on the show too, Cooper Cups had some struggles getting off of press coverage.

[Mike Wright]

Cooper cup is a slot wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. And the thing for Cooper cup is he is a, he is the go to target for this team inside the red zone. So again, hard to predict touchdown totals year over year. But Cooper Cup's one of those players that I'd put in the top five with the double digit touchdown capability year over year and a passing offense that passes the ball 200 more times than Kirk Cousins does. So if you look at Cooper Cup. You look at Adam thielen. I like 200 more attempts. I like Sean McVay. That's why I have Cooper cup significantly higher than Adam Thielen. When you look at Brandon Cooks leaving regardless of the confidence in 12 personnel, where are you with Cooper Cup, Mike? Because you have him way down.

[Cortland Sutton]

Yeah, I do.

[Mike Wright]

I'm not confident at all over those. You know that stretch you talked about at the end of the season, he was averaging 5 for 56, but he did score in all of them. So he. I mean he salvaged his. His fantasy day. I just have. I don't know what the Rams offense is going to be. Eileen. More that they trading away Brandon Cooks, the emergence of Higby and the hope for Gerald Everett that they will be running the 12 personnel a bit more. And that. Not that that means that Cooper cup is completely Houdini'd for fantasy purposes, but he won't return on where he's being drafted in my projections. And maybe it was the ACL recovery at the end of the year. Maybe it was a lot of things, but it did happen and it was. It was very, very bizarre. The numbers you're talking about, Andy, for in reception perception, the numbers available. If you want to look at all these. All of these things where when I bring up reception perception, it's available in the ultimate draft kit and it's. Cooper cup has never finished above the 12th percentile in success versus man or press coverage like this. He succeeds because McVeigh puts him in great positions. He's 6:2. That's not the normal height of a slot wide receiver. That's why it works for him. But if there's no slot, I have.

[Jason Moore]

Similar to what juju has seen success doing. Right.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Size wise too.

[Mike Wright]

And that's in juju is a slot wide receiver. Again, I'm not saying calling someone a slot wide receiver as a dirty word. It's just this is where you fit in the offense.

[Jason Moore]

Jarvis Landry says thanks.

[Mike Wright]

Love Jarvis, but. So I have my concerns. I probably won't be drafting Cooper cup, but I know you guys are all about it.

[Cortland Sutton]

Yeah. In the fourth round right now. I do like Cooper Cup. I believe in McVeigh. I believe in Cup. I know that he has bad reception perception numbers against press, but like you said, what has McVeigh been great at doing with Cooper cup? Putting him in a position to win. McVeigh is. You know, I will say that I believe McVeigh is smarter at football than me. I'm going to put myself, you're willing. I'm willing to go that far.

[Mike Wright]

That's. I'm proud of you.

[Cortland Sutton]

Well, he's very smart.

[Jason Moore]

How's he with needles and with the test?

[Cortland Sutton]

I'm sure he's afraid of them too. Andy.

[Jason Moore]

Okay.

[Cortland Sutton]

We're all human so. But the reality is I trust the offense and while we saw the back half of the year, the lower passing for him, the lower targets, receptions, yardage, that was also where he was basically splitting time with Brandon Cooks. I think the absence of Brandon Cooks means that the, you know, the 12 personnel will basically you're going to have four players of fantasy relevance receiving players. I think both tight ends will be relevant and I think woods and cup are going to eat. I'm not too worried about the press on the outside. Cooper cup hasn't been asked to do that a lot. Now if that's what he's going to do, I think that's what he's going to work on.

[Jason Moore]

He's averaged a touchdown every 9.3 catches over a three year span. Last year was the wide receiver four for the first half and then wide receiver 33 over the second half. He, he's going to be fun to watch. I mean I think Robert woods and Cooper Cup, I have both guys in my top 10. So I am planting a flag with that offense.

[Mike Wright]

Sure. And I've been asked on other podcasts like is there a player you have ranked low that you are concerned is going to make you look foolish? And my answer is always Cooper Cup. I don't feel I'm, I don't feel like complete and total conviction that Cooper cup is going to be a bust. That's just that I'm concerned and I'm not drafting him.

[Jason Moore]

All right. Allen Robinson and number 13, perennially undervalued.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

Also perennially stuck with the wrong quarterback.

[Mike Wright]

Also true, very true.

[Jason Moore]

And we have some disparity here as well. I'm at 11, Mike's at 9, Jason's at 21. His current average draft position, by the way, I should have given that for Cooper Cup. He's being drafted as the wide receiver 15. Allen Robinson's up at wide receiver 12. So this is year seven for Allen Robinson lost the year right in the middle with the injury, but seven years of Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky for Alan Robinson so he doesn't get a lot of sleep.

[Cortland Sutton]

Thoughts and prayers go out to you.

[Jason Moore]

Alan could be buoyed. That's right. Buoyed by Nick Foles.

[Mike Wright]

Is that a Sam Bowie reference?

[Jason Moore]

Sam no, not Sam Bowie.

[Mike Wright]

Oh, I don't get your reference.

[Jason Moore]

Who are you talking Bowie reference? First of all, I don't know. You're talking about, like, going back to Jordan's dress here. No, it wasn't a Sam Bowie reference.

[Cortland Sutton]

The things that float on the water, that lift, you know, that's like a.

[Jason Moore]

That's a turn of phrase, really.

[Cortland Sutton]

I believe it is.

[Mike Wright]

Okay.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

Well, we all learn things every day. I know what a buoy is out on the water, but I've never.

[Jason Moore]

And that is the buoy in which I believe this turn of phrase is based upon. Not the Sam buoy of the Portland Trailblazer.

[Cortland Sutton]

Cannot confirm. But. But likely.

[Jason Moore]

But likely where I look it up and it's a Sam Bowie reference. Moving forward in the episode third most targets among wide receivers last year, 154 targets is ridiculous. And he had a couple of seasons like that in Jacksonville with 150 plus. So I think. I know. I know. The reason the disparity in our rankings exists is based upon that number. It's based upon the belief that for Mike and myself, that he is going to be the same thing he's been, you know, that he was last year, which is a target monster. He was the original, by the way.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

On the show. The target monster. And that he's a great wide receiver. And those things kind of just raise you to the top. That does beg the question. We looked at, you know, someone like Keenan Allen and we took him down a peg because of the.

[Mike Wright]

Well, different quarterback, sure.

[Jason Moore]

But we saw a really different Mitch Trubisky last year than the year before. Not sure who we're going to have this year.

[Cortland Sutton]

So which one do you want? The one that he was great with or the one that looked promising?

[Jason Moore]

You're saying two years ago where he went, almost went to the playoffs and.

[Cortland Sutton]

Exactly. But Alan Robinson wasn't quite as great then. I mean, he's Alan Robinson.

[Jason Moore]

I want Mitch Trubisky from two years ago because I don't think Alan Robinson. Snap percentages are. I think they're going to mimic what they were last year when he played 16, when he was on the field 94% of the time.

[Mike Wright]

That means he needs to run.

[Jason Moore]

They need to run.

[Mike Wright]

No, Mitchell Trubisky needs to run.

[Jason Moore]

Gotcha.

[Mike Wright]

When he's running around, they can win games. When he's not, they won't.

[Jason Moore]

He's just an unstoppable wide receiver when you give him the opportunity.

[Cortland Sutton]

I'm definitely the lowest here. I've talked about this Before, I'm not as confident as you guys in the target volume, but I did want to play a quick game.

[Jason Moore]

Of course you did.

[Cortland Sutton]

All right, here we go. This game's called Alan Robinson or Tyler Boyd? Here we go. Okay, this is data from the last two seasons, 2018 and 2019. All right, yards per game. Who had more, Allen Robinson or Tyler Boyd?

[Jason Moore]

Tyler Boyd.

[Mike Wright]

Robinson.

[Cortland Sutton]

Andy, you are correct. It was Tyler Boyd.

[Jason Moore]

All right, the two year span, Tyler had a pretty impressive.

[Cortland Sutton]

Okay, he did. This is more about how these two gentlemen play the game. Yards per reception. Alan Robinson or Tyler Boyd?

[Jason Moore]

That's probably. I'm going to go. Alan Robinson.

[Mike Wright]

Allen Robinson.

[Cortland Sutton]

It is Tyler Boyd. Okay, now let's get to the fantasy. The meat touchdowns. Alan Robinson. Yeah, welcome to that side of it.

[Jason Moore]

You're to blame for this segment altogether.

[Cortland Sutton]

All right, Allen Robinson or Tyler Boyd? Touchdowns in the last two seasons.

[Jason Moore]

Alan Robinson.

[Mike Wright]

Alan Robinson.

[Cortland Sutton]

It is Tyler Boyd. All right, here we go. Top 24 fantasy finishes. Alan Robinson or Tyler Boyd.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, this is going to be Tyler Boyd.

[Mike Wright]

I don't play your game. Alan Robinson.

[Cortland Sutton]

My game is great. It is Tyler Boyd. All right, bust games.

[Jason Moore]

This is exactly how Jason would play this game, which is all the answers.

[Cortland Sutton]

Are his more bust games. Tyler Boyd or Allen Robinson?

[Jason Moore]

Probably Alan Robinson. Jason.

[Mike Wright]

Okay, I've stuck with one answer. Alan Robinson.

[Cortland Sutton]

Well, he's tied. They both have 14 bus games and this is in a total of. Alan Robinson has only one fewer game, 29 and 30. So they've both missed about the same amount of games. This is the point. That is I. Now, granted the outlook here, you're getting AJ Green back and Tyler Boyd's outlook for this season isn't quite as rosy, but I do think that.

[Mike Wright]

So you're drafting Boyd over Alan Robbins?

[Jason Moore]

That's what I heard.

[Mike Wright]

My game of Montgomery versus Todd Gurley. I'm drafting Montgomery. That was my whole point. Your whole point is you're just trying to disparage a man.

[Cortland Sutton]

One of these guys is being drafted as the 12th wide receiver. And one of these guys is left for dead in drafts. That's my point. And I think that my real point is that two years ago, Alan Robinson. Yes, he was coming off of an acl. So was Cooper cup this past year. There's no excuses there, is it? That is just being completely thrown out. And I think that the truth of fantasy is in the middle of the last two years for Alan Robinson.

[Jason Moore]

Last year, I think Tyler Boyd was wide receiver 23. Allen Robinson was 11. It's interesting. I mean, it was a good year for Allen Robinson, but they were a team that couldn't run the football. Mr. Bisky struggled. The defense wasn't as strong as it was the year before when they were a shutdown defense, which I think they, you know, they obviously want to get back to that style of play that got them very close to, you know, a Super bowl as opposed to last year's style of play, which got them close to firing their head coach or something of that nature. So, yeah, I mean, you, you could be right. You know, 11 might be the ceiling with someone like Mr. Bisky, but what's the ceiling with Nick Foles or Sam.

[Cortland Sutton]

Bowie if he doesn't start the season? Ceiling is Super Bowl.

[Jason Moore]

All right, we want to thank hello Fresh for sponsoring the show today. You can get fresh pre measured ingredients, mouth watering seasonal recipes delivered right to your door with hello Fresh. I'm not sure there's something I've appreciated more since about, I don't know, March than hellofresh and having variety and delivered ingredients and recipes to choose from. And variety. And variety has not been something common to the quarantine area of life, but it's something common to my hellofresh experience because every week something different shows up and they have something for every single person. If you want low calorie, if you want vegetarian, if you want family friendly. Yes, family friendly. Where the kids actually eat the food, HelloFresh can get you dinner on the table in just about 30 minutes. And you, you actually go to the grocery store. No, you do not. And you actually save up to 28% compared to grocery store shopping trips. And if you're doing the, like grocery at home ordering, you're even saving more with hellofresh. So look, we, we absolutely stand by and love hellofresh. And it's coming up clutch like Damian Lillard. All right, go to hellofresh.com fantasy80 and use the code fantasy80 to get a total of $80 off. That makes sense. Including free shipping on your free box or on your first box. Hellofresh.com fantasy80 and get and use the code fantasy80 for a total of $80 off, including free shipping on your first box. Additional restrictions apply. Please visit hellofresh.com fantasy80 for more details. Mike Evans comes in at number 14.

[Cortland Sutton]

I hate that. I hate it. I hate it. I hate it. It's my fault and I hate my ranking. I don't like it at all.

[Mike Wright]

Good, because I don't like it either.

[Cortland Sutton]

No, I mean, it's absolutely my least favorite.

[Jason Moore]

You're coming clean right now.

[Cortland Sutton]

Oh yeah. I mean, I want the truth to be known here for the foot clan that I don't like where I have Mike Evans. I've got him down for just over a thousand yards and eight touchdowns, but it puts him at my wide receiver 19. And Mike Evans is not a good wide receiver. He is a great wide receiver. He has the record right now for consecutive thousand yard seasons. He's literally never not had a thousand yard season. He has an upgrade at quarterback. I like Mike Evans. I hate my ranking. I just don't know how to get him up in my rankings while being honest.

[Jason Moore]

Let's surface some of the concerns or what you're getting. Let's you open up the package. And Mike Evans has 67 receptions last year, 1100 yards, eight touchdowns, 118 targets. We know that he's a great wide receiver. We also know he shares the field with another great wide receiver who was at number five on yesterday's episode, Chris Godwin, who's also. Have you seen the level of hype that Tom, Tom Brady has been putting out on the Twitter?

[Mike Wright]

I have not.

[Jason Moore]

He's become quite the hype master. It's, it's practice highlights. It's, you know, this Pastor Gronk, this past Evans, this pass to Godwin.

[Mike Wright]

Good for you, Tom.

[Jason Moore]

Touchdowns and honestly it's got me a little bit. I mean he just looked, he just looks so. Tom Brady's got a level of determination that is unmatched. I mean you look at what makes players great historically and it's just this concentration of will and he's got it. And he's getting me on the hype videos because I just saw him connect with Chris Godwin yesterday.

[Mike Wright]

How concentrated is he if he's spending all this time on social media?

[Cortland Sutton]

That's his team, Mike.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that's the TB12 tweets. TB12 tweets. But, but you did have what your experience with Mike Evans last year involved ups and downs. It involved disappearing acts. Even on a team that passed as much as they did. Even on a team with Jameis Winston throwing as many touchdowns as he did. There were weeks where Mike Evans disappeared because he is not going to be a hundred catch type of player. He's going to be a down the field type of guy, which is something that now you can blame the weapons, you can blame the age. Tom Brady has struggled a little bit more getting the ball downfield. Maybe he hasn't had the weapons to do it. He's good at it. But he didn't do it as often.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, he didn't do it as often. He went deep just over 10% of the time compared to Jameis, who was nearly at 16% of his passes. But Tom Brady had a passer rating over 100 when he was going deep. Like he was.

[Jason Moore]

Well, he picks his spots.

[Cortland Sutton]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

And I mean that's, that was the system he was in. This is, once again we have Bruce Arian system versus other player. What they have done in the past because last year was O.J. howard. No. Will they use O.J. howard? And the answer was they keep saying they want to use OJ Howard, but they did not. But Tom Brady, I mean, we've seen other quarterbacks come into the Bruce Arian system and then change how they play. Like Carson Palmer put up numbers that he had not put up in a very, very long time once he was in the Bruce Arians system. So this I still believe in. Mike Evans and Jason's ranking is doo doo.

[Cortland Sutton]

Yeah, no, it's tough because, you know, we saw when Arians came to Arizona, they moved Larry Fitzgerald to the slot and the slot was a masterful weapon for fantasy production. And then lo and behold, Chris Godwin proved that to be true here. So it's the combination of the deep passing question marks with Tom Brady. Can he do it? And the slot propensity of Tom Brady and the Aryan system that I think leads me to have this low of a ranking. But at the same time, Brady will take advantage of his best weapons. He is smart. He knows when Mike Evans has a guy beat and he's got one on one coverage and he's going to put it up for him and guess what? Mike Evans is going to get the ball. So it's one of those things where I will draft Mike Evans ahead of my ranking here. Look at the tier that he's in. Read the blurb that, you know, we write about him and get the context to the ranking because he's, he's, he's good. And I do wonder. This, this is somewhat anecdotal but I'm going to try to find the research I feel like from memory. The deep passing over the last couple of years for Tom Brady and Drew Brees has been much better in the field first half of the year than the second half of the year. I want to be able to back that up. Right now, it's just from memory. I'll try to research this after the show, but I'm wondering if that means Evans could get off to a stronger start than anticipated. And maybe Wayne in the second half of the year.

[Jason Moore]

Jameis had 99 deep attempts last year. If you want to know why, you should question Mike Evans. There were four times you were happy playing him last year based on your expectations. You drafted Mike Evans to be great. He played on a team that threw the ball more than almost anybody, had more deep attempts than anybody in football. Four times he finished inside the top 24. That would be the indictment. Five, five times.

[Mike Wright]

Can I get six?

[Jason Moore]

I apologize.

[Mike Wright]

That's five.

[Jason Moore]

No, it's five. It's five. He. He went from.

[Cortland Sutton]

But each one of those times he was a top ten guy. And that. So he's a weak winner. He's like, you know, we talked about Tyree Kill the fact that he, he busts sometimes.

[Jason Moore]

Are you comfortable with him as your wide receiver one.

[Cortland Sutton]

No, I'm not.

[Jason Moore]

No, I'm not either.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I don't really want.

[Jason Moore]

Even Mike, who's the highest, doesn't really want Mike.

[Cortland Sutton]

And he's being drafted as the wide receiver 8.

[Mike Wright]

I don't like the ADP.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, he's not going to be on my team.

[Mike Wright]

It leaves very little room for margin.

[Cortland Sutton]

You know what my ranking.

[Jason Moore]

Gronkowski is going to be a goal line threat. I don't. Say whatever you want about Rob Gronkowski. I can promise you Tom Brady is going to look to the one guy he's played with in the red zone a lot.

[Cortland Sutton]

Yeah, my ranking is going to save a lot of people here.

[Jason Moore]

You're a hero.

[Cortland Sutton]

I mean, I like Mike Evans at a, like where I've got him ranked. I'm like. But if you're telling Me Wide Receiver 8 is where I've got to draft.

[Jason Moore]

Him, you're paying for.

[Cortland Sutton]

Absolutely not.

[Jason Moore]

This has come full circle.

[Cortland Sutton]

All right, DJ Chark, Mike Evans or Mike Evans want to play a game?

[Jason Moore]

D.J. chark comes in at wide receiver 15 on our consensus rankings, which is well above ADP. He's a fifth round pick. That's why he's on every one of almost all of our teams. Wide receiver 20 by average job position. Mike has him at 11, Jason 12. I have him at 18, which has translated into me being a DJ Shark hater, having him two ahead of his ADP. Look, this is still a tough situation. Jacksonville. I saw a mock draft this morning. Do you know who went number one overall? Jacksonville drafted a quarterback at one overall in the. In the 2021 mock draft.

[Cortland Sutton]

Makes sense.

[Jason Moore]

The one. You know, it's a push comes to shove situation. Even if Gardner is okay, if your Franchise is at the basement, which I'm not saying it will be, but that's the way the mock drafts have Jacksonville at the top for a lot of people. So if their defense is as bad as it is and they have the chance to draft a player, you know, that's graded out as maybe the best quarterback prospect.

[Mike Wright]

Sir Lawrence.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, yeah. Trevor Lawrence. Highest graded quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck in 20, you know, 10 years ago. So what do you do? Do you stick with a six round guy that kind of was okay on a team that loses a lot of games?

[Mike Wright]

Look, if they have the first overall pick, they're going to take a quarterback.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but, but that doesn't mean this.

[Mike Wright]

Year I don't think they're going to be the first overall pick. Gardner Minshew was.500 as a starter. He was 6 and 6.

[Jason Moore]

The defense is.

[Mike Wright]

The defense was bad last year too.

[Jason Moore]

Not this bad.

[Mike Wright]

If you win, if you win four games, you're not the number one pick overall. But anyway, so back to DJ Charg. He was seemingly out of nowhere, but he really wasn't. He was a second round pick. He had, he's very tall, very fast, in the, in the mold of, you know, a younger A.J. green. And you paired him with Gardner Minshew. I love talking about deep passes, but Gardner Minshew had the best pass rating on deep attempts last year. Better than Patrick Mahomes, better than Kirk Cousins. And that part of that is because he has, he has players like Chris Conley and DJ Chark. DJ Chark turned into the number one receiver for Jacksonville. And I can't believe that he's going in the fifth and sometimes the sixth round.

[Cortland Sutton]

We talked about this early, early in the off season, whether or not we could make DJ Chark a breakout for our, for our ultimate draft kit. And we decided we couldn't because he's already broken out. Except not according to where you're drafting him. You're drafting him as the wide receiver 20. That's not someone who broke out from weeks one to 11. He was the wide receiver five. Then he dealt with some injuries or maybe just, you know, regress to the mean, depending on what you believe is.

[Mike Wright]

Well, he did have an injury. He had an ankle injury for the final 25% or so of the season.

[Cortland Sutton]

Sure. But you know, players play through that, get better, get back. But here's the thing. He was legitimately good, statistically great. Josh Hermsmeyer from 538did this great new write up with a new metric, separation over expectation. So it's basically how good the they the player is doing compared to what most players would do in that situation. And DJ Charx 2019 they charted the last three seasons. DJ Chark's last year ranks first among all players in that metric. He is a separator. So you talk about Minchu was good throwing a deep ball. Well it helps to have the best separator down the field.

[Jason Moore]

You can hear more on DJ Chark on the Fire and Ice episode right? Last Monday Mike made the case further. AJ Brown comes in at number 16 on our consensus wide receiver rankings. I have my 13 Jason at 17, Mike at 18. You are living a boom bust type of Life with A.J. brown. But it was really, really boom from week 12 on last year just kind of took the fantasy world by storm and 11 people. A lot of championships that invested in A.J. brown. The question marks around him have all been around what Ryan Tannehill will you get right? Because it wasn't pretty with Marcus Mariota at the beginning of the year. Obviously A.J. brown was a rookie. I kind of, you know you get a complete free pass with rookie season plus Marcus Mariota. But with Ryan Tannehill he was a monster. The targets went up. Everything went up.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah. And A.J. brown, I mean it took until about week 10 for the Titans to go, oh, maybe we should use AJ Brown the whole time. And like he was stupid.

[Cortland Sutton]

Taj A. Sharp.

[Mike Wright]

He was on the field for about 60% of the snaps up through that point, which is absolutely ludicrous. But I mean over 20 yards of reception, that's also ludicrous. It's not happening again.

[Jason Moore]

I can't 8.9 yards after the catch per reception. I think number one in football.

[Mike Wright]

I cannot project those types of numbers for AJ Brown, but he is extremely interesting. This is it's funny, we have this clump of players, you know, like Mike Evans, a 60 catch guy, A.J. brown. What's the ceiling for receptions for A.J. brown? 80 on this. Oh, 80.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I think you think he can get to 80.

[Cortland Sutton]

Well you said ceiling.

[Jason Moore]

I think 70.

[Cortland Sutton]

I think that's where he caps out at because we don't know if he's going to end up like you said, he was on the field 60%. If he's 100% player. If he becomes the read from week one, I don't have him for that but I think that's the ceiling. But even still, he's not 100 like his best. His best case scenario is never going to be a possession consistent guy. He's going to Be a little bit more boom bust.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. Those games last year, week 12 on. He was on a 66 reception pace when he started to get the big boom games. But we have a small sample size with AJ Brown. Plain and simple.

[Mike Wright]

Sure.

[Jason Moore]

Very small sample size. I don't think the fantasy community has overinflated his ADP because we thought maybe that would happen. Tennessee had a run in the playoffs. I think it's been reasonable. So he's the kind of player that you love as your wide receiver too. He's a perfect two. Especially if you have somebody a little bit more stable.

[Cortland Sutton]

Yes. I was going to say that if you, if you were able to get, you know, a Julio or even first round, you take Michael Thompson. So you get someone with that is 100 reception guy or what if you go wide.

[Jason Moore]

Running back. Running back and get woods and AJ Brown.

[Mike Wright]

Oh yeah. I'll take it, baby.

[Jason Moore]

Calvin Ridley comes in at 17. We all have him ranked at 16.

[Cortland Sutton]

Oh, we are clearly on team Calvin Ridley.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah. So his, his ADP guys. Sixteen. All right. So the world is on the exact same plane.

[Mike Wright]

Oh man, I thought we were like Breaking news that Calvin Ridley is projected to be a breakout in Fantasy Football since 1990.

[Jason Moore]

Only eight wide receivers with. There are only eight wide receivers of 17 plus touchdowns and 1600 receiving yards in their first two seasons combined. So those are names like Randy Moss, Odell Beckham, Marquis Colston, Larry Fitzgerald, A.J. green, Julio Jones.

[Mike Wright]

That's a list I would be on.

[Jason Moore]

Moon hand.

[Cortland Sutton]

Oh, man. Hakeem Nicks. Yes.

[Mike Wright]

Butler.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I was going Cardinals and Calvin Ridley. So he pretty much mirrored his rookie year. I mean statistically speaking he's. He scores touchdowns. He finished at 25 last year, but in 13 games. So he's a little bit better actually overall on a pace. And then he was number 20 in his. In his rookie year. So.

[Cortland Sutton]

And he played a bizarre. It was very similar to A.J. brown in the sense that he wasn't on the field as much as you would have wanted him to be on the field until he had to be. But Mohamed Sanu is gone and Austin Hooper is gone. So this is, this is. You're trying to get the Chris God one this year. You're trying to get the guy that going into the season you go, I love him as a number two, but he has zero, zero chance to be the number one for this team because you know, Julio's there because Mike Evans is there. It's almost hard to remember that last year it felt, I remember us saying like, well, he can't be the one because Mike Evans had been a dominant one and now it seems like, well, no, we could have seen. You know, it seems impossible that he could be the one after this season. But I don't think that is impossible. So that's the upside that you're hoping when you spin that 16th wide receiver pick on Calvin Ridley.

[Mike Wright]

After they traded Muhammad Sanu, Calvin Ridley was averaging six receptions and 82 yards a game. Like that's. Those are, those are big boy numbers. And I get that Austin Hooper was injured for some of those games as well. There's a lot of things at play when Ridley really started to take off last year before his injury.

[Jason Moore]

But how many touchdowns do you haven't projected for season? He put up 10, seven last year despite missing three games. He has been a touchdown beast.

[Mike Wright]

Well, he's. Someone's got to catch the touchdowns that Julio refuses to.

[Jason Moore]

I've got bats him down.

[Mike Wright]

I only have him down for six.

[Cortland Sutton]

I've got him for eight.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I was going to say over under of eight based on his. How he's, his pace has been at or above that push, push.

[Mike Wright]

But he, we know he has the ability to be a touchdown guy.

[Cortland Sutton]

He's.

[Mike Wright]

He. Look, he is also one of these elite route runners. I mean we're not breaking news here telling people about Calvin Ridley. For the first time, the fantasy world is on Calvin Ridley.

[Jason Moore]

Most vacated targets of any team, don't forget. Austin Hooper is gone.

[Cortland Sutton]

He was a 1st round NFL Draft pick for a reason. Because he's a, he's a great wide receiver.

[Mike Wright]

Honestly, I do forget that like Calvin Ridley was a first round pick by a team when they drafted him. You went really.

[Jason Moore]

You also have guaranteed passing volume there. You just know that Matt Ryan is going to throw the ball a lot. And Odell Beckham comes in at 18. Odell Beckham Jr. Finished at 18 last year.

[Cortland Sutton]

Oh, how the mighty.

[Jason Moore]

I'm sorry. He finished his ADP is 18 this year. Finished at 26 last year. And yes, his first three years in the league, 6, 5, 4 in fantasy finish. But the last three years have been rough. 83rd, 16th, 26. Yes, there have been injuries. Yes, there have been injuries. He's played through. Yes, yes, yes, we have excuses for Odell, but here we are. Excuses are no excuses. Three straight years of disappointment.

[Cortland Sutton]

Look, if I'm grabbing, you know, AJ Brown or Odell Beck, someone in this range, I. This, he's. He's the Ronald Jones of my wide receivers. I was not high on him last year. I didn't. You know, I was. I was calling for the Browns to be a bust, but I look at the opportunity here. You don't have to draft Odell beckham in the first round. You're getting him in the third round, the back of the third round as the wide receiver. 18. There's nobody in this range that I think has the ceiling that Oda Beckham's ceiling is the wide receiver one. He had a thousand yards last year, plenty of targets, and was a complete.

[Jason Moore]

I still believe that's the case.

[Mike Wright]

I still believe that is the case.

[Jason Moore]

I mean, when he. When he was putting up the five and four finish, he was getting 158, 169 targets last year, 133. And you got Kevin Stefanski coming in. Do you think that the target, the targets could be there in this offense for him to actually finish number one?

[Mike Wright]

I think they can be there. I'm not projecting it because we have him down here at wide receivers.

[Jason Moore]

I'm just asking.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah, I still believe in the talent of Odell Beckham. And Andy referenced the fire and ice or. When did I talk about Odell Beckham? I don't know. Recently. But anyways, so I'll make the case.

[Jason Moore]

Listen to all the episodes and find it really quickly.

[Mike Wright]

When I was researching for Odell Beckham, I came across a quote from December that I don't hear people talking about very much, but is Beckham. It talks about something happened to his body in training camp. And we're used to seeing players on the injury report week in and week out. You know, you. You just.

[Cortland Sutton]

If it's a Patriot, for sure.

[Mike Wright]

Yeah.

[Cortland Sutton]

Yes.

[Mike Wright]

For the Patriots for sure. But you just.

[Jason Moore]

You.

[Mike Wright]

It's just a glancing blow. It's whatever. I see him all on the injury report all the time. But Odell Beckham was hurt. You watch the tape of Odell Beckham, and even with all the tumult that was going on with the team, bad play from Baker Mayfield, like, Odell was not the same player that we have that we saw two years ago. So I make the excuse. I'm fine, I'm there. I know it's an excuse, but he was hurt. He has the ability to be a top five wide receiver, and to get a player like that at wide receiver, 18 is. It's wild.

[Jason Moore]

The easy way to not go through the Odell beckham experience in 2020 is to not draft him. So this is a.

[Mike Wright]

That would.

[Jason Moore]

If you don't want to deal with it. Like, there are certain players that are in adventure, they're not like, this is not Julio Jones. We just talked about Julio yesterday. This is not Julio Jones adventure. Oh, at best, yeah.

[Mike Wright]

I mean, put on my fedora, give me my whip.

[Jason Moore]

You're not wrong about those narratives about the injury, but we unequivocally, he has not done it with Baker Mayfield. Questions about Baker, Stefanski, Beckham's health, Cleveland offense Cleveland in general has a little.

[Mike Wright]

Bit of a sure, Baker was bad.

[Cortland Sutton]

His offensive line was much worse than the year prior and Odell Beckham was injured. Those are the ways, I guess that's.

[Jason Moore]

Why his ADPs were attacked.

[Cortland Sutton]

Those are the ways that I think there's opportunity for change where we know the offensive line is better. That's, that's a. Barring future injury, that's a done deal. I don't think Baker can be any worse than he was last year. So if he gets better because his O line is better and then if Odell is healthy, all of a sudden, you know, he turns 130 targets into 12, 13, 1400 yards and 10 touchdowns.

[Jason Moore]

Ty Hilton at 19 JuJu Smith Schuster at 20 in our consensus ranks, Hilton is still my favorite pick in all fantasy drafts. He is being drafted as the wide receiver 24 in the back of the fifth round. Which means I get Ty Hilton as my wide receiver too, in any league I want. And I feel good about that because his historical look.

[Cortland Sutton]

Can I tell you something?

[Jason Moore]

Sure.

[Cortland Sutton]

We did a mock draft last night for our league of record, me and my co owner. Guess what wide receiver you got?

[Jason Moore]

Ty Hill.

[Cortland Sutton]

You're darn right.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, that makes sense. I have him at 17. I mean, when he's played football, he's been a top 25 wide receiver. So he's being drafted at his absolute basement with a better quarterback coming into this year. The question mark. Yes, you could say it's all struggle with the injuries last year. Historically speaking, he's played the majority of the time, sometimes hurt. But fantasy finishes have been Inside the top 25 every single season that he's played outside of last year when he.

[Mike Wright]

Played 10 games and he got, he was activated. There was a little bit of a when Ty Hilton was not ready for camp. You don't, you never like to see that. But he has been activated three of his first five games last year he was a top 15 wide receiver. So he was on, he was on track to get it done. And here are the differences between Jacoby Brissette and Philip Rivers. Jacoby only went deep 43 times, 35% of his passes were catchable. Rivers 79 times went deep and nearly 42% of his deep attempts were catchable. Philip Rivers a 65% completion percent passer. Jacoby was 60% last year. Like you're getting higher, higher fantasy point targets from Philip Rivers and you're getting more accurate targets from Philip Rivers.

[Cortland Sutton]

Like I worry.

[Mike Wright]

You worry about the player's body.

[Cortland Sutton]

I worry about the player's body. If you could guarantee me Ty Hilton is healthy as a horse the whole. He would, he would fly up my rankings like a colt. Oh, healthy as a colt all season. Well done. But the reality, the reality is it was soft tissue issues last year, it's a soft tissue issue this year. He's over 30 and there's no preseason, there's no training. I mean there's, you know, there's medical analysis that talk about worry for injuries not having the same level of ramp up that these guys usually have. So I just have, I have a.

[Jason Moore]

You didn't pull out your tape recorder and press play on your AJ Green argument, did you?

[Cortland Sutton]

No, I mean I put him right in that boat.

[Jason Moore]

Seven straight years of being a dominant player and for me it's, it's the film as much as it is the fantasy finish. Consistency. He's one of the best wide receivers in all of football. One of the most refined, one of the most regularly winning downfield, intermediate routes. Just needs a quarterback. Think he'll have one. Not that worried about the injury. Maybe you miss a game or two, but historically speaking, he's played the majority of them last year. 44% snap percentage in the games he played. So he was playing hurt. Last year was almost a lost season for Ty Hilton altogether. So I just can't pass on the draft position. If you told all these arguments I'm passing on Ty Held and if he's.

[Cortland Sutton]

Costing me a third rounder.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, I mean this is like back of the fifth round. I'm going to have him in every single league.

[Cortland Sutton]

There is upside there, a little bit of risk, but that's baked into the adp. So I think that is a fair argument.

[Jason Moore]

Juju, Smith Schuster. Big disparities in our rankings here. He comes in at 20 on our consensus wide receiver ranks, but Jason's got him at 13. Micah 25 warms my heart. I have him at 28, you fools. And his current ADP is very high. It's wide receiver 11. So even Jason just made a face because he didn't realize he was below adp. He assumed based on the environment he's in that he was below adp, but he's not.

[Cortland Sutton]

That's a lot of money. You're showing out for a guy that.

[Jason Moore]

Had a lost season, asking him, you're kind of. You're boxed in. You're starting juju. If you draft him, where he's going right now, he's in your lineup no matter what. Are you going to be happy? That's the real question. He. Last year was a mess through and through. Yeah. He was not great on the field. We've talked about his struggles on the outside. He is a slot receiver.

[Mike Wright]

He is a slot wide receiver. Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Now, Big Ben can fix a lot of things really, really fast, and he knows how to utilize juju in that slot receiver position. So that'd be ideal. That's the. That's the nice scenario. You might end up with that number nine finish you got back in 2018 when he had 166 targets.

[Mike Wright]

That's a lot.

[Jason Moore]

I don't think you're going to get that from juju Smith Schuster, and I think you have to pay too much.

[Cortland Sutton]

I am surprised that his ADP is. Is still this high, that people are still on him, but I am still on him because here's why. He's a great wide receiver. If you're going to tell me that last year, if you're going to tell me that last year and the fact that he was not good and that Deontay Johnson was, you know, better and. What are you trying to say? Are you trying to say juju is somehow not a great wide receiver? You watch his rookie year, you watch his sophomore year. He's a dominant beast of a man, a great route runner, great hands, great rapport with Big Ben putting up fantastic fantasy numbers for two seasons. And then last year, the Steelers just were. I mean, that we have to throw that season out from an offensive perspective. They scrapped and clawed and did whatever they could to manufacture wins. But now Big Ben is back and juju is still a great wide receiver. You look at, you know, DeAndre Hopkins comes out and, you know, he's the number five guy in, you know, whatever.

[Mike Wright]

It was fantasy. I know where you're going.

[Cortland Sutton]

Yeah. So in 2015, okay, he was the number four. He was great. Is his third year after a great sophomore year. And then he falls, you know, in 2016, has, you know, pretty much a lost season, stinks with a backup quarterback. And people are like, well, he's not good. He's not great. It was just targets. That was the narrative with Hopkins. Yeah, but Hopkins was great.

[Jason Moore]

Yeah, but this is not DeAndre Hopkins.

[Cortland Sutton]

No, it's not. It's Juju and he's great.

[Jason Moore]

Well, here I'll make the identical argument I made going into last year when I told everybody not to draft Juju. Smith Schuster. He had 166 targets. That's a lot coming into last year. I said is he going to get more targets than 166 when he finished it number nine? No, there's no chance he is. He was being drafted ahead of number nine. There was no chance the volume was going up. If he, if his peak season that we've seen is number nine overall fantasy finish and you have to count on a bounce back and he's being drafted as wide receiver. 11 to me you're being he's being drafted at his ceiling.

[Cortland Sutton]

Well, you can't say that was his peak season because his touchdown number was.

[Jason Moore]

I can say it based statistically on his peak season. Well, he's got the. That's his highest season ever.

[Cortland Sutton]

You're saying that that is.

[Jason Moore]

That is presently his highest fantasy.

[Cortland Sutton]

No, but that's not what you were saying. You were saying that that is his absolute peak.

[Jason Moore]

166 targets is the most he'll ever get in his career.

[Cortland Sutton]

Sure, peak targets. But the touchdowns were down that year. That was the argument of why he was being drafted.

[Jason Moore]

But he's never had him up. Right. Have we ever seen him? That's all I'm saying. Like we've never seen him. It's not like a bounce back. It's not like Mike Evans had a down touchdown year. Juju is a slot wide receiver which by extension a lot of the times that doesn't translate to touchdown totals in general. It does for Cooper cup, it does for Cooper cup. But that's an outlier, not a norm.

[Mike Wright]

I believe that he can put up more than the his touchdown number can increase from what he put up. I don't know if he'll get the 166 targets. And the questions of can Juju thrive without Antonio Brown being there to be Batman on the field?

[Jason Moore]

Unanswered. Still.

[Mike Wright]

It's still unanswered. But for the people who are saying, well, anyone could succeed with Antonio Brown on the field, they didn't like. It was. It was the Antonio Brown show until juju showed up. Who juju is rookie year that was the most receiving yardage that the number two option had ever seen for Pittsburgh while Antonio Brown was the number one guy and he did that his rookie year. I'm with Jason. That I think he is a great player, but I also have. I'm not drafting him at wide receiver.

[Cortland Sutton]

I will say this.

[Mike Wright]

I'm not that in.

[Cortland Sutton]

I believe in him. I think if you draft him at wide receiver 11, you could very well end up happy. That being said, his risk is not baked in here at that draft cost. I was surprised early in the off season, I said that he would be appropriately valued due to fantasy owners being wiser. I don't think he is being appropriately valued because the risk is not baked into his adp. The risk to me being Big Ben, Big Ben's timeline of recovery and his age and having to come back. If we knew Big Ben was Big Ben from two years ago, fully healthy. Well, sure. But that's not the Big Ben coming into camp this year, and that's not baked in. So, you know, I do have a worry there.

[Jason Moore]

And for me, we've had these situations where, like Deontay Johnson and Juju. Deontay Johnson is being drafted as the wide receiver 43. Juju is being drafted as the wide receiver 11. I don't see a gap of 30 fantasy finishes, you know, spots between them. So for me, he's just not going to end up on my team. If he was wide receiver 20, 25 and you. And you got the upside of Big Ben coming back, I'd be like, it's kind of like the Odell. It's just like the Odell upside.

[Cortland Sutton]

Yeah. If he was at wide receiver 18, I would be all about that. I'd say, who has that chance of the top five finish? He does.

[Jason Moore]

It's just confidence. I don't have. I have enough confidence to take him at at 12. Yeah. Devonte Parker at 21. Cortland Sutton at 22. Tyler Lockett at 23. A.J. green at 24. Talked about A.J. green on the Fire and Ice episode. Jason talked about Lockett on the Fire and Ice episode. I will have one final comment here before we close the show down. 22, Cortland Sutton. Starting to question my own questioning of Cortland Sutton, if that makes sense.

[Mike Wright]

I did that as well. And I moved him.

[Jason Moore]

You moved him up?

[Cortland Sutton]

Yeah.

[Jason Moore]

You have him the highest at 21. I'm starting to. Starting to think that it might be a little bit rosier than I have believed before for Corlen. So he's just. If you put him in that place where he's unequivocally the number one on the team, which I think is the right thing to do.

[Mike Wright]

Yes.

[Jason Moore]

Then wide receiver 25 looks like maybe a value. I mean last year there was struggles on offense, Denver struggled, Drew Locke came on. At the end of the year. No, we didn't see the sample size that we wanted to see of Sutton plus lock equals fantasy production. But it was a small four game stretch when you didn't see that.

[Mike Wright]

So I'm going off of that.

[Jason Moore]

He's so talented.

[Mike Wright]

What I've watched Cortland Sutton do. Great wide receiver.

[Jason Moore]

Exactly.

[Mike Wright]

And historically, like I said, my argument for Michael Gallup sophomore wide receivers that cross the 1100 yard mark, historically it is just a great hit rate, saying that this player is going to emerge and be excellent for years. So this is like how Jason's talking about. He's just betting on juju. Even though you're in this mist where you can't see two feet in front of your face. I do feel that way about Cortland Sutton, but I'm just, I'm willing to bet on that player compared to his historical comps.

[Jason Moore]

All right, if you want to see all of our rankings, what are we doing next, Brooks? Are we on to quarterbacks or tight ends? Quarterback rankings. Quarterback. So if you want to see all of our rankings, all of our in depth player by player projections, each of us independently, we go through, we, we sat out, we adjust, we modify players, every wide receiver, every running back, one by one. And we are always tweaking and modifying and making adjustments based on the information that we have. And those things are all in proportion to how those quarterbacks are going to produce for those teams and the offenses year to year. And all that stuff's in the Ultimate Draft kit along with the video player profiles. If there's a player we didn't mention at wide receiver today that you wanted to hear us talk about, like maybe Marquis Hollywood Brown. Hollywood, you can go listen to the player profile in the Ultimate Draft kit@ultimate draft kit.com that'll do it today for this episode of the Fantasy Footballers. And we will be back with you tomorrow. It's a long ways from now.

[Mike Wright]

We'll see you then. Goodbye.

[Andy Holloway]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot. Com and follow us on twitter @the ffballers.