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This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
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This is Daniel Cormier from the Daniel Cormier Show. This podcast is sponsored by Total Wireless, the official wireless partner of UFC. Power doesn't wait in the octagon or outside of it. You either make the move or you miss the moment. That's why you need a network that's just as powerful as you are. With Total Wireless, you get unlimited 5G data keeping you in the action from the walkouts to the knockouts. Now that's a total power move. Make your total power move today. Visit totalwireless.com or stop by your neighborhood Total Wireless store. Additional terms apply. See totalwireless.com for details.
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Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros podcast. I am Ryan Warmley, joined by my friend PJ Glasser from Gameday Garage and Hoops in 5 with the PJ Glass, or PJ. It is one of the best days of the year, which feels very strange to say to some people because we're not actually celebrating games being played there. Of course, were conference tournaments wrapping up today, but what makes it one of the great days of the year is getting a bracket. I know it is killing you. You don't have a physical copy of a bracket in front of you. We will have to make do. How are you doing on this selection Sunday?
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C
Doing great, Worm. One of my favorite days, man. Like you said, all the hypotheticals are out the window, all the bracketologists and trying to fig out where your team's gonna play, who they're gonna play, all those sorts of things. We finally have it. I think, for the most part, like, the committee did a pretty decent job, right? Like, it feels like every year there's kind of an egregious error. Last year they had Gonzagas and eight, right? Like, there's always one of those where it's like, what are we doing? Thought maybe like St. John's was potentially a little low at 5. I thought maybe you give him a 4 for winning the Big east and beating the Yukon like they did. Outside of that, though, like, they put Miami of Ohio. They put Miami of Ohio in. Obviously the right move. All the bubble teams, like, no real arguments. Texas, maybe NC State being one of the first last four in was a little bit surprising, but certainly a team that I thought was going to be in the field. So that's my kind of big overall takeaway is like, I'm glad that we don't have any crazy teams that are underseated, overseeded. It feels like every team is, for the most part, pretty properly seated, everything we thought kind of going in where they would be. They are. And I think we're going to have ourselves a great tournament, my friend.
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Feels like to me. And you were doing a show with Game Day Garage, you know, live with the bracket reveal. So I don't know how much you were looking at Twitter. It felt to me like this was the least talk of snubs I had seen.
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Yeah.
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In really a long time. I don't recall the last time that everybody was kind of like, yeah, they kind of got it right. Like there was definitely talk about St. John's being, you know, Seedliner 220. Vanderbilt as a five. I know got some discussion as well. But like a couple of seating, you know, question marks being the real big talking points on selection Sunday is unusual. They pretty much got the teams in that should have been in, which partially does speak to how weak the bubble was. Right. There's not a lot of teams out there that you want to be making strong cases for that should have been in instead. It's going to be a fun tournament for sure. I do want to let everybody know if you think, you know, college hoops. Take your bracket knowledge to the next level with the brand new NCAA Tournament Pick em contest. Pick your winners or make your predictions against the spread all tournament long for a chance to win signed jerseys, free annual betting pros subscriptions and fantasy pros. Shop, store credit. The best part, it's completely free. Enter now@bettingpros.com pick again. That's bettingpros.com pick the contest begins on March 19th. So yeah, kind of like these initial thoughts on the bracket? It looks pretty good. Do you feel like we've talked kind of previously, PJ about, you know, the top teams being very strong this year. Do you feel like the field as a whole is particularly strong? Is it particularly deep? Is it particularly weak? What adjective kind of comes to mind when you're like not talking about the best teams but talking about all 68 as a whole? Does this look like a strong field or a weak one?
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C
It looks like overall a weak field, I would say. And I think there are certain regions that they've really there. There are certain regions that are stronger than others. You know, like when before they reveal the bracket. There are certain teams that you kind of have in your head that you're intrigued of betting right. There are certain teams that you're like, if they get the right path, I could see myself picking them to go far. And I feel like a lot of my teams that I was kind of eyeing are all in the same two regions. You know it's just like the way that it works sometimes. So that that part of it's kind of annoying. We, it's been talked about in nauseam of how weak the bubble is and there's really no way of arguing against it. I mean this is a very weak bubble. 17 and or 18 and 16. Auburn was in consideration. Forget one of these final spots. So I think from that standpoint it was weak. But Worm, I mean if you just look off the Ken Palm ratings and these teams their, their net rating I, I mean we got three teams that are above 37 which is just like crazy. It's the most it's ever been. There are 20 teams that are above 25 which I believe is the most that there's ever been. So it was a top heavy tournament last year. I think it's a top heavy tournament. Again with that being said I think the two, the three, the four seeds are a lot more gettable. We also have a lot of teams that are dealing with big time star injuries in that 4 5, 6 seed range. So overall I would, I would lean towards the weaker side. But there, there are a lot of good teams and, and I like a bunch of majors as well. I think we got a lot of solid in the major teams.
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It does feel like injuries could play a role in the tournament. Like obviously Michigan has lost firepower. Duke doesn't have some of its best players and you know those are two one seeds. You know obviously J.T. toppin with with like that Texas Tech could have been a team that people would have been excited to see make a run. Probably not going to now like it feels like whether it's players that are just banged up or guys that are out, you know for the rest of this term. Caleb Wilson with unc. Another one like this tournament will be shaped somewhat by players who aren't actually on the court.
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C
Yeah, definitely. And it's going to be interesting to see how those teams are viewed in the betting market. Right. So you take Texas Tech for example is going up against Akron in the 512. I think Akron's going to be a popular upset because people know that Texas Tech is missing top and BYU without Saunders. I think they're going to be a popular upset. Pick whoever they get in the playing game. North Carolina with their injury with Caleb Wilson. So I think all those teams are going to be popular teams to lose in the first round. I think maybe one or two of them could. But you're right, injuries are certainly going to play a part and then to the top teams. I mean, Caleb Foster, this injury with Duke is huge. Case in the injury with Michigan. They haven't quite looked at the same since he's got hurt. So not only is it the big stars that are out for some of these four, five, six seeds, but it's obviously some of the top teams in the country that are dealing without some of their key players as well.
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I didn't actually sit down and do the math here. I know last year the top four team, the one seeds last year were the strongest by Ken Palm net rating ever. This year, I'm just looking at it here. I can't do the math that quickly. I don't know if they are better than last year, but they are at the very least very close. As you mentioned, three teams over a 37 net rating on Ken Palm is ridiculous. Obviously two of these teams are the same one seeds as we had a year ago. Duke in Florida last year, Houston, Auburn this year, Arizona and Michigan. Do you feel like this year's four as a group is stronger or weaker than last year's historically strong group?
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C
No, I think last year's is stronger. That Duke team that, that lost to Houston I still think was the best team in the country. They gave that way a game. They gave that game away late. I think that team was terrific. The Houston team last year I think is better than this year's. Florida's team last year I think is better than this year. So right there, I mean all three of those teams who are again are in consideration. I think the teams last year better than the one this year and then Auburn was, was a really good team. And they remind me a whole bunch of Michigan. We were talking about that we were doing the conference tournament previews. I mean the parallels worm like how those two teams both started the season, how they started conference play, how they kind of finished the regular season, conference tournaments. Like it's just Michigan's giving me Auburn vibes. So I think because Michigan's Auburn and then, you know, the other three teams, I think Arizona is really, really good too. But I think the other three teams, Duke's team is better last year, Florida and Houston as I was mentioned. So I think last year's ones are better than this year's.
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The last kind of overall point I want to make quickly before we get into more of a region by region breakdown is it feels like a year of defense, particularly at the top. You know, you just look at the defensive rating on Ken Palm of These top teams, Duke's number two in the country, Arizona three, Michigan number one and Florida's number six. And then number five and six on Ken Palm overall are Houston and Iowa State. Those are numbers five, four and five in defense. So the top six teams in Ken Palm are the top six teams in Ken Palm's defensive rating as well. That doesn't always happen. Sometimes there are years where offense is more of a driver or teams that are balanced. It does feel like defense has been a real driving force of the best teams in the country who are quite good, even if maybe the top four, just a hair down from last year, still a very strong group, of course. Do you feel like the defense is. Is that an angle that you're paying attention to in this tournament? Whether it's betting unders or just like in trying to pick upsets because a lower scoring game more inherently fluky. Any, any angle with the defense that is catching your eye in terms of how you're projecting the bracket to actually play out given those numbers.
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Oh, I think having a, a great defense is totally key, especially in a tournament setting in a one and done sur in advance. You know, it's a lot easier to win a game in the 60s than it is to win a game in the 90s, right? If you're a team trying to win six games and go 6 0, you're not going to score 90 points every single game. You got to find ways to win in the 60s and the 70s. So that's why all those Ken Palm trends of the teams, you know, you got to be top 40 offense, top 20 defense. It's because you know those teams are good defensively. When they have an off shooting night, when they don't hit their season average, they can still find ways to win games. So it would make sense that you know the six best teams in the country are all the six best defenses because those teams have won a lot of games and they can win a lot of games in a lot of different ways. Even when their offense doesn't show up, they can still win games with their defense.
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If you want to build the perfect bracket and take down your pool, use the free bracket optimizer@bettingpros.com bracket optimize your picks using advanced data and betting odds. Lock in your favorites and we will do the rest. Find key matchups and smart upset picks instantly. Make your best bracket@bettingpros.com bracket RPG. We're going to go region by region. I might have asked you this last year when we had this discussion I don't recall if I did or if I did. I don't recall the answer. Are you a when you're filling out the bracket and all down the left side, all down the right side guy, or are you a upper left, upper right, lower right, lower left, kind of working your way around the order of the one seeds. How do you fill out your bracket?
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I'm all down the left and then all down the right, but I fill in. So the first region this year is the east region. I fill out that entire region first and then I go down to the next region on the left side, fill
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that out region, not round by round. We do approach this differently. I think we can work through it here for this show, though, that's fine. We will start with the east and the number one overall seat. See Duke, some of the other teams here. UConn is the two seed, Michigan State, the three, Kansas, the four, St. John's as we mentioned, kind of a surprising five there. Ohio State, TCU, a team that you talked about during conference tournament. Our preview episode last week. As a team that you said keep an eye on them when the bracket comes out. I know you like them. Some real coaching powerhouses in this region.
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You ain't kidding. I mean, Bill Stoners, though.
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Danny Hurley. I mean it is I. Rick, Rick Patino. I just let alone Duke. So when I read through the names in this region, what's the first thing that comes from? I do? Is it the coaching? Is it is a coach. I can see you nodding your head.
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C
I mean 100%, right? Like they read off Duke. We knew that was coming. They were the number one overall seed, Ohio State, TCU. And then you see St. John's and you're like Patino and then you see Kansas and you're like Bill Self. And then you see Michigan Izzo. And then, I mean, it's like, goodness, you're just throwing all the best coaches in the country in the same pool. Pretty crazy that that definitely is what stood out. Worm. I think this region has the potential to be the most chaos of all of all the regions this year. I really do. A lot of people, I think even with the Caleb Foster injury, look at Duke. And regardless of who was in Duke's region, they were always going to put him to the Final Four. That could certainly be the case. I think the round of 32 matchup potentially with TCU could be very tough. I think the potential sweet 16 matchup with St. John's could be very tough. If they get by those. I think they'll be okay. I don't think there's anybody on the bottom side of that region that is going to be able to beat Duke. I don't think Michigan State could or Yukon could or any of those teams. But tcu, we did talk about him when we were previewing the conference tournaments last week. And you know, I'll say it again for people that didn't listen to that episode, but TCU this year is just one of those teams that have played to the level of their competition and they were so good on neutral floors, right? If you go back and look earlier this season, they lost to Michigan by four back when the Wolverines were unstoppable. They beat Florida, they beat Wisconsin by double digits. Everybody's probably going to have them as a sleeper in this tournament. I mean, they were beaten a lot of the top teams in the country and Duke without their point guard, man, I think all of us to kind of watch the ACC championship. Yeah, they're able to, to win, but Florida State gave him a game. You know, Virginia in the ACC title game wasn't easy. Clemson doesn't have enough offensive firepower. But TCU, even in Big 12 play, they beat Iowa State, they beat Texas Tech, they lost on the road to Kansas by four in a game they should have won. They played him tough the other night in the Big 12 tournament. So I, I wouldn't, I wouldn't be shocked if, if TCU pulled off the upset. We all know guard play this time of year is everything. And Kaden Boozer got some big experience in that ACC tournament. But man, I think the Big 12 is the best league in college basketball this year. And I think tcu, with how good they were in the non con and how tough the conference schedule is and playing all those big boys they facing Duke is going to be nothing they haven't seen. You know, they've played Arizona, they played Houston, they played Iowa State, they played all these great teams. I think they got a shot to give Duke a real game. And then St. John's if they're able to get Duke again without the point guard. Worm. Rick Patino, how many coaches do you hear across any sport, football, basketball, whatever it may be, is you always try and take away the best player, right? But it's easier said than done. You watch the Big east championship when St. John's played UConn, they completely took Braylon Mullins out of that game. Rick Pitino talked about it in his postgame press conference. They didn't even want him to breathe. They didn't even want him to think about shooting. And I look at their draw, I think Northern Iowa is a great matchup for him. I think they'll get past them. I think, you know, even though Darren Peterson might be the number one pick, it's going to be the same kind of philosophy where, you know, Peterson's the guy, you make everybody else beat you. And with Kansas really not having, like a primary point guard against a defense like that, that ball pressures you like St. John's does, I think that's going to be a big issue. And then, oh, by the way, if St. John's faces Duke, they're going to be without Caleb Foster and their point guard. That could be some issues. So, you know, it's funny how certain teams win their conference tournaments and everybody just wants to bet them in March Madness and others win their conference tournaments, and the chatter kind of quiets down. Last year when St. John's won the Big east, everybody wanted them, right? They were the two seed. Everybody was in love with that team. They lose in the round of 32 to Cal in Arkansas. This year, they win the Big east regular season and they win the Big east tournament because they're in Dukes region. Nobody's really talking about him. So I think, look, Duke's going to be the favorite in both of those games. Are going to be favored by double digits in both of those games. There's a good chance they win both of those games. But TCU and St. John's I wouldn't be shocked if they beat them. And then if that happens, Worm, again, the chaos. Because on the bottom of this region, dude, I mean, I think South Florida's got a chance to make a sweet 16. Louisville hasn't been able to beat a good team all year. I don't like this Michigan State team, Yukon. It's funny. I actually have UConn in my final Four in this region, and I don't even like UConn all that much. It's just. It's just the way. It's just the way that it worked out.
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Where there's also. There also is something. And I know this isn't the way you're thinking about it. There is something to. Like, we've seen this happen before. Let's just write UConn in there. Like. Like actually writing UConn's name in the Final Four feels correct because we have seen it happen. Even if it's maybe not your favorite husband, you know, version of the Huskies. I think the individual talent in this region is really interesting. You know, you mentioned Darren Peterson, like, might be the single most talented player in the country in terms of like, NBA stock. You mentioned could be the number one pick. Like, would your job be on the floor if he just, like, went on a crazy run? Maybe based on what we've seen, like in terms of the level of commitment and the injuries and just everything that is. I mean, that's a conversation for a different episode, but everything that's gone into his season, you know, Donovan Dent in ucla, like, there's there's some really good individual players here, some good guard play in this region. Can you just quickly take a few seconds? Why is St. John's who won the Big east regular season and the Big east tournament, three seed lines lower than UConn, who were in the same conference and won neither?
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C
Yeah, see, that's another thing I didn't like either. Maybe that was one. My one gripe is they were underseated and also the fact. Or they were. Yeah, they were underseated and also the fact they put them in the same region. You know, like, these are the two best teams in the Big East. Now, if it plays out the way that I'm going to have it on my bracket with St. John's and UConn round four in the Elite Eight, that would be terrible. I think a lot of us would sign up for that, but I was just surprised they put him in the same region. I think it's because of the non conference. You know, UConn, they won at Kansas, they beat Florida, they had some good wins where St. John's really kind of struggled. They lost to Bama, they lost to Auburn, they lost to Tennessee. They really struggled against some of those SEC teams. So that's, that's what it really came down to. Even though they had the two wins against UConn, they did win the Big east regular season title. They won the Big East Conference tournament. I think when the committee looked at that non conference, the disparity between the two was the reason why the Huskies got the two and, and St. John's got the five.
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I want to incentivize teams to play tough, fun non conference schedules because it's just good for the sport to have those big matchups in November and December at the same time, like I do. I think UConn's a better team than. Than St. John's St. John's beat them. They won the conference that they're both in and they won the conference tournament. Like, at a certain point, your conference play has to mean something, right? Like you're in the same tournament. Tournament. Playing the same opponents. I don't like that. I'm not saying. Even saying that St. John should be higher, but, like, three seed lines lower feels. Feels incorrect in looking at it, which, again, is not. You know, I'm not going out on a limb saying that.
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You like in this region, or are you. Are you like me where you think that maybe we could see some chaos?
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I think it's really funny. There's always, like, a region of death, right? Which by the coaching acumen, could be this region, if that's your metric for that. But. But there's also always a region of chaos, and almost feels like it could be both here. I don't think Duke comes out of this region. I don't know who I want to put my, like, stamp on instead. Like, I feel. I feel, like, pretty okay. As okay as one can feel saying I don't think the number one overall seed is getting out of their region. That's how I feel about this, you know, current version of Duke. And yet I'm like, I don't know. Like, you know, again, the. Kansas has been such a disappointment this year. UConn is not my favorite UConn. I think if. I think if forced to pick, I would pick one of the Big east teams. I would pick either St. John's or UConn. Of course, we have a few days for me to tinker with my. With my bracket and come away with a different answer. And just really quickly, and we won't spend this long on each region. This one just has a ton of really fascinating teams really quickly before we move off the East. Why do you not like this Michigan State team? Because I think there are some people who do like this Michigan State team. And of course, you know, the Tom Izzo of it all, you know, marches is his specialty. Why do you not like the Spartans?
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C
It's more so. I just don't like the Big Ten. And I think as we go through this bracket, a lot of people will start to get that. Will start to get that feeling that I'm fading a lot of these Big Ten teams. But Worm, I mean, all of us that watch college sports every year, when it's like 7pm Eastern on Thursday or it's late in the day on Friday, we all see that graphic of, oh, the ACC 6 and 1 today. Oh, the Big 12 is 5 and oh today, right? So a lot of times these conferences, they either struggle or they do really well. I kind of tend to think the Big Ten is going to struggle in the tournament this year. And even though Michigan State's offense has been better this year than it has been in the last couple years, I just. I don't know if they have enough shot creators. You know, when they get late in games. Even though they were. They were good down the stretch in Big Ten play again, I just. Now that you're out of your league, you're going in the non conference, I think it's going to be tough. They do have a nice little region down there like Louisville is a six no and then you know ucla they just beat you. So I'm sure they would like to see them again. UConn they could beat them if they play well. But yeah, it's. It's more of a Big Ten honestly than it is Michigan State. I like them more than some of the other Big Ten teams but as a whole I think Michigan State's going to be grouped in with those Big Ten teams.
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I'm looking to fade last Big Ten team at least of the current Big Ten teams to win a championship. Hold up my sweatshirt here for the YouTube audience there of course course not in the tournament this year because they were very, very, very, very far from the bubble.
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C
Are you a UMBC guy this year, this tournament?
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You know, why not? I hadn't really given it much thoughtfully. Maybe they can do it again. All right, let's go to. We are going to go the order I like to fill up my brackets. We're going to go to the West Region here. One seed is Arizona, Purdue the two coming off the Big Ten conference title Gonzaga the three three Arkansas the four Wisconsin you mentioned is probably a possible sleeper for a lot of people is the five BYU with the other potential number one overall pick in the NBA draft AJ DeBonsa is the six. Some other names here. Miami Missouri is an interesting one. High point going up against Wisconsin, Villanova, Utah State is the eight nine Texas and NC State is the kind of play in for the 11 seed I feel like so last year going into the tournament the team I really wanted to pick was Florida. But I felt like I started to hear a lot of people picking Florida and so I didn't because I wanted to differentiate from what everybody else was doing. I'm starting to feel that a little with Arizona and I think the reason why I see so many people say Arizona is because of the one seeds who are all very strong. They just feel the safest. It is the E. It is very easy to paint a picture of why Duke might not make the final Four. It's very easy to paint a picture for Michigan. Florida just got their doors blown off in the SEC tournament. Arizona is the one one seed where it's like, I'm just really confident this is a really, really good team. I'm not saying there's some historic juggernaut, but I just. There's just not. It's. It's much harder to paint that picture than I think it is for the other three, which is why I think a lot of people are going to be picking them. While there are some strong teams, there's a lot of high ceilings I think in their region. But it's not like this overwhelming region of there's not a ton of dominant coaches in here. There's not teams that have been good start to like. Purdue is playing well right now, like you know, winning the conference tournament and obviously have a ton of talent and some great players, but they had a lot of real downstretches this year and come from the Big Ten that you are, you know, down on, you know, Arkansas Acuff's really good. It's a flawed team. Gonzaga, this is not the Gonzaga we've seen the last, you know, half decade of, of dominance. It's a different Wisconsin. It just feels different as a Wisconsin team than the last couple years. So you're running through the list. You know, Villanova I don't believe in, you know, as a potential eight to give them a game in the second round. So like I'm gonna be like, stop me. When you hear a team that you think can upset Arizona. It just like that to me is the easiest one seed to pencil into the Final Four. In my opinion.
- [25:08]
C
I'm a little higher on on Purdue and Gonzaga it sounds like than you are. I still like Arizona to come out of the region. I think this is the region where maybe we could see the most first round upsets potentially. I think high points got a great chance of beating Wisconsin. I think the winner of Texas NC State's got a great shot at beating byu. Don't think Hawaii can beat Arkansas, but it certainly would not shock me if they do because the Arkansas defense is not very good. I, I'm higher on the Zags and Purdue though. Purdue, you know, the reason we talked about it last week, I bet them to win the Big Ten Conference tournament. They were just a team that needed to get out of the regular season. They just needed to get away from Mackie Arena. As crazy as that was, they could not win any big games at home. And with all the experience on that team and all the games at Smith, Lawyer, Kaufman, Ren. These guys have played together. I mean this, this is what they've been waiting for. It's this time of the year. They wanted to win a Big Ten championship and they wanted to win a national championship. So I just told you I want to fade a lot of these Big Ten teams. Purdue is normally a team that you want to fade in March with painters track record but I think they're very intriguing this year. I also think Gonzaga is intriguing man. I mean we talked about it last week but Mark Few's got a better defensive team than he does offensive team and we don't know what that looks like in March. One thing that also never gets talked about with Mark Few is what a great early round tournament coach he is. Like his team. I think he's made it to nine or ten straight sweet 16s and usually Gonzaga's got one and two seeds but again we've seen some ones, some twos, some threes go down here in recent years. Gonzaga is never in that mix. They're always good to win usually the first two games. I think they're going to be able to do that again this year. And the underrated thing with Gonzaga is one of their best players. Braden Huff has been out for two months. He should be back for the tournament. We which is going to help them along with EK and give them one of the best front courts in the country. All going to come down to the guard play for Gonzaga if they knock down their three pointers. But they're one of the oldest teams in college basketball. They're really good on defense and I think that Gonzaga, Purdue Sweet 16 game is going to be sweet. I think the winner of that game is going to give Arizona a heck of a game in the Elite eight. But I tell you what Worm, it just feels like it's setting up for Arizona, Gonzaga because then we get the Tommy Lloyd Mark Few storyline and we get the student versus the teacher and Tommy Lloyd, how fitting would it be he gets to his first elite eight and who does he see there on the other sideline but his boss for so many years. So I, you know we were, I talked about at the start how there were certain regions with some teams that interest me, other regions with some teams I didn't want anything to do with. Gonzaga, Purdue were some teams that I was hoping to be sprinkled in elsewhere where I could take a shot with them. I didn't want them to be in Arizona's region. So I think one of those three is representing the West. I don't think Arkansas, Wisconsin even though some people could look at those teams as sleeper high upside Final four I really think it's going to be one of the top three seeds. But Arizona, you said it really well. They just do feel the safest right now. They were so good in the non conference. They're playing great basketball and I think their backcourt is the closest thing to what Florida had last year. Jaden Bradley we all saw the game winner against Houston, the semi or against Iowa State. Braid Burry's is a lottery pick like they just del orso off the bench is awesome like their trio of guards I think is the best in college basketball to go along with the big so just feels like their their roster is kind of the most complete and they're they're going to be tough to beat but I think Purdue and Zag are going to be some tough outs in that region.
- [28:44]
D
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- [29:16]
A
I'm more here for Purdue than I am for Gonzaga. It's not that I hate Gonzaga because we actually talked about that as a team that I liked. I think I even threw them out or I think you threw them out and it was my favorite pick of yours in terms of some of these long shot bets. When we talked last week a team who we could see their odds get better over the course of that week. I like Gonzaga but you're it just it feels hard to feel have a ton of faith in them because it just is a different looking Gonzaga team than we're used to under Mark. Yeah but you are right like I mean he wakes up in the sweet 16 like that's when their season starts. Yeah Purdue though if they weren't in Arizona's region I would be coming on here. Like I was actually prepared before when I was thinking about the show tonight before the bracket was revealed. I was prepared to be making a case to you for Purdue if they had been with any of the other one seeds I would be. Arizona is the one that. It's hard for me to get there, but I love pj Love teams that were really good in terms of the preseason expectations. We know there's talent. We, we know there's continuity. Like you said, there's, there's so much experience on this team. They're legitimate star players and then they have a down year, but there's not like a particular reason of, oh, this guy got hurt and that's why it was a down year. Or this thing, you know, fundamentally changed and that's why it's a down year. It was just kind of a disappointing season. And yet their disappointing season is they're the eighth best team in Ken Palm, the number one offense in Ken Palm, and, and still have this team intact. Like, if that's your really disappointing year and you're now getting hot, that's a team that I normally love and I'm all over if again, Arizona is the boogeyman in this region that I just can't get past. But I do like Purdue. I know you said you think you like, you know, you're maybe higher on them than me. I want to be clear. I do like Purdue quite a bit and would be more excited if they were in a different region.
- [31:11]
C
What makes it tough too is, I mean, by now people that follow college basketball know about all these trends, you know, the Ken Palm stuff and like the Week 6 AP poll and all these sorts of things, and Duke, Arizona, Michigan are like the only three that kind of fit like all the criteria. So your champions probably coming from one of those three. And you know, you and I, it kind of sounds like we're aligned on Michigan and Duke maybe not winning the title. So it kind of just leaves Arizona left. And that's why it's like, it's like
- [31:38]
A
our championship pick by default.
- [31:40]
C
Almost exactly. So I, I think the way worm that a lot of people are going to view the east where it's like a lot of great coaches, a lot of teams with high upside, but Duke's in there, so I don't like them is how we kind of view the west where it's like, I like Purdue, I like Gonzaga. It's just they're in the region with Arizona. So I can't take.
- [32:04]
A
Yeah, if I force you to pick one of the teams, not one of those three, Gonzaga, Purdue, Arizona, you can just, you don't even need to give me a full explanation. But it's just, I force you to pick one shooting from the hip who are you picking?
- [32:15]
C
It would be Arkansas. I. I just. Cause a cuff.
- [32:19]
A
A cuff just goes absolutely nuclear. Would it shock anybody?
- [32:22]
C
You got. You got a Hall of Fame head coach with a lottery pick. Point guard. Best point guard in college basketball. That's. That's a good combo. They just won the SEC tournament, so they get hot. Yeah. Cause look, I think they'll beat Hawaii, and I think they'll. I think they'll beat High Point, who I think's going to upset Wisconsin. So, you know, one game, winner take all against Arizona. Again, I like Arizona in that game.
- [32:43]
A
But.
- [32:43]
C
But would it shock anybody if Arkansas just goes nuts and wins? Absolutely not.
- [32:47]
A
Yeah, some. And. And again, we barely. We didn't really talk about byu, but the other probable number one pick here to Ban. To Bonsa is awesome. And, you know, it's. It's harder for when you're not like a point. You always think of, like, who's the guy who drags his team on a Final Four run unexpectedly. It's always a point guard. So it feels a little different with AJ But, I mean, that dude is a monster. I. As a Wizards fan, I hope they get him in the draft this year. Like, I. I love AJ So even though we don't, they're not going to be Gonzaga, you know, even if they even get there. But he's. He's a fun talent to watch. Let's go to the Midwest here. PJ this is Michigan's region. Iowa State is here. Virginia is here. Your Alabama team is here. Texas Tech, we mentioned, obviously, without J.T. toppin. Tennessee is the 6 seed. Kentucky's also in this region. St. Louis and Georgia is the 8, 9 game. Santa Clara is in this region. This feels to me like if Arizona was in this region, I would be like, betting the mortgage on them. I don't think this is a particularly strong region. It happens to coincide with the one seed I feel worst about. And you and I have talked about why we are maybe feeling not so great about Michigan, but I don't see a ton of very obvious. You know, no offense to the Crimson Tide. I don't see a ton of very obvious things. I like Iowa State, but it just doesn't. You know, all the two Cs are good. Right? It's not like you're going to absolutely hate any of them. I just. It's just not my favorite kind of group of competitors for Michigan, so I'm kind of fading Michigan just more in terms of how I feel about the Wolverines, not in terms of how I feel about the region.
- [34:29]
C
Agreed. I think. I think this sets up really nicely for Michigan. I. I got no concerns about Georgia, St. Louis taking them out in round one. If they do get Texas Tech in the Sweet 16 without Toppin dealing with that front line, it's going to be a nightmare. As an Alabama fan, I can tell you Michigan is a nightmare matchup because they cannot beat anybody with a good frontcourt. And. And, oh, here's Landenborg, Mara, Morris, Johnson. So that would be a nightmare. I think Michigan, you can just put them all the way to the Elite Eight. The bottom half of the region's interesting with Iowa State and Virginia. Two teams I do like. I think Virginia could get past Iowa State. You know, I think a lot of people are going to have one versus two in this region. Ryan Odom's a heck of a coach, man. And I think Virginia worm, they went 29 and five this season, which I think is going to surprise like, a lot of people. That's a heck of a team. And again, just like, well balanced. You know, they don't really have, like, any lottery picks. They don't have any of these stud freshmen, but they're just really good. They're well coached. And you talked about how you love betting on teams in the tournament that were really highly coveted coming into the season. I like fading teams in the tournament that really look good in their conference tournament. And that's what Iowa State looked like, where, you know, it's kind of like it felt like going into the Big 12 tournament. Worm, if we didn't have the Big 12 tournament, the brackets were coming out and Iowa State was a 2 seed, nobody would be interested. Right. But you watch them dismantle Texas Tech, you watch them go toe to toe with Arizona, and now the bracket comes out, and I bet a lot of people are thinking, you know, if I want to get different and not pick Michigan, I think Iowa State is going to be my pick. Right. I think that's. I think that's the team I want to. And I love kind of fading that thought process, that logic. Otzelberger's never been in the Elite Eight either. His team's kind of flame out in the sweet 16. So I. I think that's going to be a really good game. I think Virginia is going to beat them. So I got Michigan, Virginia, Elite 8, and again, I just. I think they're Auburn, man, where it's like Auburn's region last year. Like, I wanted to fade them, but there was nobody in that region that I'm Like, I don't think any of these teams are going to beat them. And I feel that way about Michigan where I want to fade them. I want to pick them to get upset. I want to pick them not to make the Final Four. I just don't think these are the teams to deal with. So I got, I got them advancing to Andy.
- [36:50]
A
Yeah, I, as we are talking through this, I think it's very likely that I, I'm just going to have Arizona beating them in the Final Four. Like, that is just like, I can almost write that in now because I like Arizona so much and I don't like Michigan, but I don't know who I would put ahead of them. So, like, I just think they're going to get there. And I also think that Michigan is the. Is the one seed that is going to be the most heavily faded by the public is just my guess. And so maybe kind of fading the fade and having them get past them. Like you talked about, like, not liking the Big Ten. Like, I know the ACC usually does well in the tournament, but like, it's not a good conference. Like, like, I know uva is a good team and you know, we're legally obligated when talking about March Madness to mentioned that Ryan Odom was the coach of umbc, right. The greatest upset in history. So I like, he's a good coach and it's a good team, but it's not like they've been outside of the Duke games, like, have faced a ton of high, high level competition, you know, in the last few months and there. And I mean, you already hit on Iowa State. Yeah, I'm just like, like Bama has a talent to outshoot anybody. But like, like you have been talking about, it's a nightmare matchup if, when, you know, when they face Michigan and it's hard to imagine them facing anybody but Michigan in the sweet 16. So, yeah, I'm like, like, Tennessee's got some talent. I talked about them a little in the conference tournament preview, but like, I don't. I'm not picking them to win multiple games. I, like, I just, I don't. I want to talk myself into it and I just struggling to. So it does kind of feel like it's Michigan.
- [38:25]
C
Tennessee is interesting because I do like their backcourt. I mean, we obviously know Jacoby Gillespie and I think he's a very good player. Player. Nate Amen's a lottery pick. I like his game a lot, but it's a Rick Barnes team.
- [38:37]
A
I was gonna say. Yeah. Talk about coaching.
- [38:39]
C
I Mean, trying to bet his teams in the tournament. It's like, are you gonna get 75 points out of Tennessee this game? Are you gonna get 55? Like, which Tennessee team are you gonna get? So could they upset Virginia? Absolutely. I mean, Tennessee is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. They're the best offensive rebounding team in the country. Like, that game will be a war for Virginia. And I think that's how they beat teams in March, especially in the tournament, is their physicality really wears on people. And when you have a backcourt as good as Gillespie and Amen, like, yeah, you can beat some people. So I can see Tennessee making an Elite Eight run. Problem is, I just, I think one of those offensive duds are coming. One of those stinkers. Like, I mean, you know that Auburn game, they were struggling in the first half, but Auburn's just not any good. So they came back. The Vanderbilt game, they couldn't shoot. It's just like. It just feels like same old Tennessee. I can't. I can't do it. So I think Virginia gets by them. I would understand. Anybody that wants to take Iowa State to go to the Elite Eight makes sense. I just. I don't know, man. I. Iowa State's just. It's the same kind of feel with Tennessee. Like, you're just like, are you going to get 80 out of the cyclones? You're going to get 55. Like, that offensive stinker is coming.
- [39:49]
A
But I think there's a pretty reasonable chance that that is the Sweet 16 matchup. So one of them's getting to the Elite Eight. If that, if that plays out that way. Like, I, I. Virginia is my least favorite three, and Tennessee is my favorite six. So I would agree. I would. I think I will probably have that upset because I, I definitely think Tennessee will beat SMU or, or Miami. So, so, yeah, I, but then it's like, I, I. But I don't want to pick them to make the Elite 8 because it just feels like a bridge too far. But last thing, just, like, I think. I think Akron's gonna be really popular. 12 over five pick. I mean, those are always, you know, whatever you already mentioned. High point is one you like there. But the 12 over five is what everybody always looks at. Yeah, we, I don't think we see it happening with St. John's you mentioned seeing it happening with High Point. Any interest in kind of going against the narrative of, like, well, we should pick Akron because Tech doesn't have top in. Like, do you think there's a Like is that a smart play or do you think Tech will still pull it out?
- [40:46]
C
No, I mean, look, a theme of this preview pod has been conferences and it's been well talked about how bad the Mac is. That's why at 31 and oh, Miami of Ohio was a discussion of whether they get in Akron, far away the best team in that league from a metric standpoint. But even they struggled worm all three of those games in the Mac tournament. They were trailing, they struggled. They had to come back and win all those games. So now you got to face the team from the best league in college basketball, even though they're without top and you know, in Texas, Tech's a funny team. Like they're, they're the kind of team that could always get upset because of the three point variance. But I think against Akron, a team that wants to play fast, that wants to score. Third straight year we've seen Jon Gross's team in the tournament. They haven't put up too much of a fight in these games. So I just think Texas Tech is, is going to be too much, you know, nowadays with how popular sports betting is and how popular March Madness is and all these sorts of things, it's usually like that super, super popular upset just doesn't really happen anymore. And, and like you said, I think this is going to be one of the more popular ones.
- [41:52]
A
We'll do one more region breakdown here for the south and then run through some just rapid fire superlatives for the tournament and get out of here. Florida, the defending champions, are the 1 seed in the South. They were the fourth 1 seed last year too, right? It was the same, correct? Lower. Lower, yeah, lower left section of the bracket as I recall. The other one seed Houston, the two seeds of would be a very interesting rematch there. Illinois, great offense, is the three seed. Brassica, the four have never won a tournament game. Vanderbilt, possibly underseated, is the five. And of course they just beat Florida in really impressive fashion. Carolina without Caleb Wilson is the 6. You got St. Mary's in here. Clemson, Iowa is the 8. 9A&M is in this region as well. To what degree are you scared off by Florida getting blown out in the SEC tournament? Because this is a team that was starting to feel sort of similar to last year where there was, they just got so much momentum and on such a roll that there was this air of inevitability. It wasn't Quite like those UConn, you know, teams that won every tournament game by, you know, double digit points or anything like that. But it felt bored. Even though there were closer games, it felt really unlikely. Like, it was hard to imagine Florida losing last year. They were starting to have a similar feel, feel. And then they get blown out against Van, you know, you know, against Vanderbilt in the, in the conference tournament. So does that scare you off? And if it does, where are you pivoting in this region?
- [43:23]
C
I mean, it has to scare you a little. I think my opinion of Florida, I was probably going to look to fade them coming into the tournament. Even before the SEC tournament started. This was a team that struggled in the non conference earlier in the year. Now again, they brought in a completely new backcourt with Boogie Flan and Xavian Lee. They had to figure that out. And Todd golden, one of the best young coaches we have in college basketball, has figured that out for sure. But yeah, I just. The gators of all the 1 seeds were definitely the one I was looking to fade. And I think getting out of SEC play was actually going to hurt him because weren't as great as that team was last year. And even though they ended up winning the national championship, they could have easily lost four of the six games that they won. UConn had them in the round of 32.
- [44:06]
A
Exactly. Like, like if it felt inevitable, but like they were close games, right? It wasn't a lot of blowouts. They just, they had the momentum to keep winning at the end. And part of that is golden being a good coach, but yes, sir, I cut you off.
- [44:17]
C
No, all good. So they could have lost UConn in the round of 32, could have lost Texas Tech in the elite, could have lost Auburn in the final Four, in Houston in the title game. They didn't because they had a guy named Walter Clayton. That role that they've been going on in SEC play, they've won like every game by double digits. They haven't had a play, a close game. So we haven't had to see any of those guards take over, make clutch shots down the stretch. We're, we're, we're gonna, we're gonna have to see that. We're gonna have to see that March Madness. And, and I think that's where the downfall is going to be from Florida. As terrific as that front court is, as great as they were last year, I mean, they played in a lot of close games, but because of those guards in Clayton, they found ways to win. They just don't have that same backcourt this year. So that's why I'm, I'm looking to fade Florida this year. But again, the problem, I think this is the weakest region, Worm. I think the south is, is the weakest by far. Cleanse.
- [45:12]
A
I mean, I mean, just, just Nebraska as the four seat alone. Like, I will be, my jaw will be on the floor if you come in here and tell me Nebraska is your pick to make the Final Four here. So if you're fading Florida and Nebraska is. They've never won a tournament game. Does that mean, like Illinois, Houston is essentially the championship game of this region? If those two end up playing, like, I'm just not even sure who you want to come in here. Like, Vanderbilt did just beat Florida. But I don't, you know, I don't think you're, I don't expect you to make the case for them. So, like, is it just whoever you like more of, you know, Houston's defense versus Illinois's offense. I mean, you, you know me, pj from group texts with you, me and our friend Joe Malfa. You know how I feel about Brad Underwood. I will be very happy to fade him in a tournament setting. Which basically just leaves Houston, who, similar to Duke is kind of just a worse version of, of the team last year. They're still very good, but, yeah, not quite as good as what they were last year. So like, for me, and I guess I'll just go first here, like, my gut reaction is is to go with Houston in this region. If I am getting scared off of Florida, I could see myself by the time we get to Thursday tip off, going back to Florida and just putting faith in defending champs. But if I get scared off of them, I feel like it's Houston.
- [46:31]
C
I agree. And Houston, Houston was a team that I was, I was kind of looking to fade to. But I mean, you said it like Nebraska, Come on. I mean, what are we doing? Illinois, I am so out on. Yes, that offense is terrific, Worm. They are the worst team in college basketball. Dead last. The worst. Enforcing turnovers per game. They force like seven a game. So when you're in a one and done setting and you know you're playing for your season 40 minutes and you can't force any turnovers and get extra possessions, that's a big deal. Your offense is great, but they're going to be some games when it's not. And you got to find a way to win games other ways. And I don't, I don't trust them to do that. So I think VCU has a chance to go to the sweet 16. You know, that's a tricky game. I think VCU is going to be a very popular upset because of the Caleb Wilson injury. That, that's a tough game. That's a tough game. But I think the winner of that game is going to the sweet 16. I think the winner of VCU Carolina beats Illinois. I'm going to take a flyer on a team to make a Final Four that nobody is going to talk about. Nobody's talking about this team as a sleeper, but maybe I can, I can sell you a little bit on the St. Mary's gales where I was just
- [47:42]
A
going to say I don't even know which team you're about to say so.
- [47:46]
C
St. Mary's is the number one free throw shooting team in college basketball. They're number 13th in three point percentage, their top five in rebounding, and their top 20 according to Ken Palm in defense. I mean, that, that checks a lot of boxes. You shoot free throws well, you shoot threes well, you rebound well, you play defense well. Because Randy Bennett and the gals have not had much success in the tournament, nobody thinks anything of it. I don't know what the updated odds are. I know before the tournament started because I had my eye on them, they were 100 to 1 to make the Final Four. But the way that this region breaks, if they're able to beat Houston, that plays a very similar style to them where it's at a slow pace. Two defensive teams, if Houston has an off shooting night and St. Mary's is able to shoot the ball well, wouldn't shock me if they upset him. If they upset Houston, then, then all of a sudden we got a shot because again, I'm not high on Illinois. Carolina's got The Wilson injury, VCU good 11 seed, but I think St. Mary's takes care of business. Got Nebraska is the 4 and then Vandy, Florida towards the top. So, you know, I think the Gators are going to go to the Elite Eight. I don't think Vandy's going to beat them again. And I think that's the team they end up matching with in the sweet 16. But you know, St. Mary's again, nobody's talking about him. And I didn't even consider them. But I was looking at certain stats the other day and I was looking at free throw percentage And I saw St. Mary's was number one and I'm like, oh, that's, that's interesting. I didn't realize they showed 81% from the line. Then I was looking at 3 point percentage and I'm like, wow, St. Mary's is 13 and it's just like they were towards the top, all these categories. So I kind of think they're intriguing because again, you and I are in a similar boat where we like Houston, we don't love them, but just because of this region, we're kind of forced to probably pick them. Nobody is picking St. Mary's worm, so I again, it's a long shot for a reason, but they do a lot of things really well.
- [49:42]
A
You are already answered the question I was going to ask, which is because, because I, I think it's a really interesting case that you made for everything except the Houston part of it. And I was going to ask basically, like, but can they beat Houston, like playing a similar style? It's an interesting case for how it could happen. I just. Yeah. I mean, at the end of the day, let me ask you this just philosophically while we're talking about this, these matchups, do you want to be the guy who, who has a pick in your Final four that makes people really raise their eyebrows, or do you want to make the reasonable fades like, oh, instead of taking the one, I'll take the three. But like, I'm not going to go so far as to pick a seven seed to make it. Like, how do you approach trying to differentiate in a large pool?
- [50:27]
C
I'm always the guy that want to pit, wants to pick the things that nobody else does and hope that it turns out to be right, you know? Yeah, I never want to go want to be the guy that picks all the ones. I never want to be the guy that just goes all chalk. Like, I want to try and pick the upsets and see where they're coming. And you know what if it doesn't happen and we just get 1 versus 2 all over the place in the elite 8 and we get all 1 seeds in the Final four, then I'll lose my bracket pool and so be it.
- [50:54]
A
But. And you'll, and you'll enjoy the Final Four because that'll be a really fun. That's exactly basketball.
- [50:59]
C
That's exactly right. So I, I definitely like having a little bit more fun with my brackets. I like picking up sets. I mean, we're all rooting for chaos at the end of the day to begin with, unless it's involving our teams that we're rooting for. So I. Yeah, I know, but that's. It is the, it is the tough balance when filling out a bracket of what are the stuff that you genuinely believe is going to happen versus how different are you going to be from everybody else? Because you know People are going to have similar things. Even just talking with you and filling out our bracket, there are going to be so many people that have the combo of Michigan, Arizona, Houston, Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Houston, UConn. Right. I mean, you know, Purdue, Michigan, like, it's all going to be the same and it's never that way. Even last year when it was all 41 seeds wasn't popular because it was only the second time it ever happened. So it's tough. But I, I just, I think it, it shapes up really well for Houston. I, I think the south is the weakest region.
- [51:58]
A
Let me make a, let every remind people of the stat on Brad Underwood before we get off this region. He has outperformed his seed one time in the NCAA Tournament as the coach of Illinois, and it was when he was a three seed who made the Elite Eight. They beat Iowa State by three points a couple years ago, was the two seed in the region. So Tech, a three seed making the Elite Eight is not that crazy. Technically, it's outperforming the seed. It's the only time it's happened. His other four tournament appearances in Illinois or at Illinois, and again, not again, but just, you know, he's only made five tournaments because Covid was one of those years. So there would have been a six in there. Didn't get the chance. But those other five Elite Eight once has not gotten to the second round. In any of those other times or, excuse me, the second weekend any of those other times, it's been round two exits right and left. So that was a really long winded way of me saying he has not performed in March and I have been fading him pretty much every year in the tournament and it's worked out my favorite. But it's, it's a fun offense. Like, Wagler is really good. You know, it's a weak region. They're actually seventh on Ken Palm this year. They're, they're like higher ranked at Kenpom than Purdue, for example, than UConn, for example. So, like, they're not a bad team, but this is, he's been a regular season merchant in the past. And I don't, I don't watch this team and think, oh, this is the year it's going to be different and he's going to suddenly become. They always say, like, you know, coaches can't wait in March until they do. I just don't feel like this is that team for, for Underwood.
- [53:29]
C
I'm totally with you. And back to Nebraska real quick for everybody listening, how can you not bet TROY in the first round you're getting 13 and a half points against the team that has never ever won a tournament game.
- [53:42]
A
It feels mean to, I mean if
- [53:45]
C
Nebraska wins by 15 to 20 points, tip the cap job well done. I just, I just don't think they're going to make it easy. Man. Do you remember when Northwestern and it was a lot different. They were playing in an 89 game against Vandy but do you remember how stressful that game was? I came down the wire, the kid on Vandy, they had the lead and he actually fouled with like 10 seconds left not realizing either the game was tied or they had a one point lead. So that game came right down the wire. I just, I mean when you've been playing basketball for that long you haven't won a tournament game. I just, I have a hard time believing you're going to win by like 15 points. So I, I will definitely be on Troy plus the points in that game.
- [54:21]
A
You know, if that game is at all close like those, there's going to be a lot of clenched, you know what dirt like it. The pressure will be on and there's a team like obviously they started 20 and oh they're 6 and 6 in their last 12. Now four of those six have come against Michigan, Illinois and Purdue. This is good teams but it's not like they have been you know, finishing the season strong here after their, their hot start. So yeah, I, I, I, I, I almost want to bet them just because I know everybody will be betting against them and just so strictly fade that just let everybody know you and I are going to be doing a lot of these shows throughout March including some live shows on tour Twitch. You can get your college basketball betting Edge Live. Joining PJ and myself this Saturday at 11:00am Eastern on the Betting Pros YouTube channel at YouTube.com betting pros. I believe it is also on Twitch is my understanding maybe they switched it to YouTube and I'm not sure about that. The read does say YouTube so we'll go with YouTube for now and we'll double check that and be sure to let everybody know throughout the week where to find us. But yeah, check out the YouTube channel and or Twitch for NCAA tournament picks and betting breakdowns. That's going to be Saturday at 11am Eastern ahead of the second round and we're going to do that again the following week. Time to be determined later as well for the Elite Eight. All right pj, let's go through some. It's kind of rapid fire general Questions I wanted to hit on here before we get out of here. Now that we've done the region breakdowns, who would you say is your favorite dark horse? That you can sort of paint a picture of their path to the final. For a team that, you know, we just talked about all the teams that everybody's going to be picking, a team that not everybody's going to be picking, that you could make a case for the Final Four. You did already talk about St. Mary's so give me another one.
- [56:00]
C
Yeah, St. Mary's I mean, we talked about St. John's I think even though they are coached by Rick Pitino, because they're in Duke's region, I don't think a lot of people are going to pick them. And I think their path really sets up good for them. Northern Iowa, that line's already been bet up from nine and a half to eleven and a half. The Panthers play at one of the slowest paces. They're good defense, but going up against those guards, man, and I just think that's tough. And then, you know, Patino formulating a game plan for Darren Peterson in Kansas, who doesn't really have a traditional point guard, I think that's a good matchup. Getting Duke potentially without Caleb Foster and their point guard, I think is good. I also talked about how TCU could make a run. So those. Those would probably be my two dark horses. Worm. I think there is a chance that Duke could go down earlier, a lot earlier than people think, and we could get some chaos in that east region. We talked about, like, in Michigan. We talked about, like, in Arizona. It's really tough for me to see a dark horse making it out of that region. And we just talked about the south and how there really isn't anybody that we really kind of like outside of Houston all that much. So if you were looking for dark horses, I think TCU, St. John's probably be my two picks.
- [57:03]
A
I think St. John's might actually might be my genuine pick. Not like just trying to paint a case for a dark horse. I think I might go with St. John's I think I might. I want to think about that more.
- [57:11]
C
Yeah.
- [57:12]
A
Give me a team that not enough people are talking about right now.
- [57:17]
C
I think it's Gonzaga. I think it's Gonzaga again. I hate that they're in Arizona's region, but I. They. The just the offense, defense thing is so fascinating to me. Like, you know, it's like Lincoln Riley is coaching USC and he's got a better defensive team than offense. Like you know what I mean? Like that, like that's what it's like for.
- [57:36]
A
That's a great comp for it.
- [57:38]
C
Like, I mean, truly. So imagine that. Imagine watching a Lincoln Riley team and they're elite on defense, they're still good offensively, but they're better defensively. And it's like, what do I do with this? So I think you combine that to the fact that they're one of the oldest teams in college basketball. Tyon Grant Foster's been in college for a long time. Graham Ike's been there a while. And you know, Mark Few for the last decade plus has had all these superstar guards and NBA players and they really don't just have that this year. So the Zags I think aren't getting talked about enough. And I think they're so fascinating because it's not the flashy, sexy Gonzaga team, but it's a different kind of Zag's team and, and that makes it interesting. And Worm, as we know, normally in sports the teacher usually beats the student. So even though Tommy Lloyd has the better team and he's a heck of a coach in his own right, you know, there could be a chance that maybe Gonzaga could, could get to the Final Four. So I, I think people are sleeping on the Zags. I don't think they're talking about them enough.
- [58:39]
A
Give me some players who you think can make a name for themselves this month. It doesn't have to be like a totally out of the blue, obscure name nobody's heard of, but somebody who, who will kind of elevate themselves in the public conscious. They can be a star that kind of takes that step into superstardom. It can be, it can be an obscure name who sort of becomes a household name. It doesn't have to be the, you know, random guy who, it's a bunch of three pointers for a mid major to upset the, the power five school. But whoever you think is going to make a name for themselves this month.
- [59:07]
C
So yeah, look again, if, if St. Mary's potentially makes a run, I think Mikey Lewis is a guy that I would watch a different guard than St. Mary's really had in the past. You know, they just kind of get their guards that are fundamentally sound players, they run the offense, they play good defense, but he's kind of got some one on one game to him, he's got some wiggle to him. He can really shoot. And I think that's why St. Mary's their, their offense has been elevated as we were just talking about to previous years. So I think Mikey Lewis on, on St. Mary's would be a guy to potentially watch. Going through the teams here, seeing if there are anybody else on any of these other teams, I think could make some noise. I mean, again, like Texas Tech. A lot of people have, I'm sure watch this team and know of him, but Christian Anderson is one of my favorite point guards in the country. And without topping, if they're able to go on a run and beat some of these good teams in front of them, it's going to be because of him and because he's just going on a Walter Clayton like run and make big shots and winning these games at the end for Texas Tech. So Christian Anderson, if you haven't watched, watched much college basketball, that is a guy that I would keep an eye on. Another guy, potentially. I like TCU to beat Ohio State, but if the Buckeyes get past TCU and maybe they're the team to upset Duke. Bruce Thornton's a terrific guard for Ohio State as well. You know, an upperclassman. All this talk about all these great freshman guards, but he's one of the really good upperclassman guards that we have in college basketball. So he's. He's another guy that I would watch. Those, those three guards are probably the ones that, that stand out to me.
- [60:39]
A
Give me your most likely Cinderella and I'll let you define Cinderella, however you'd like. It can be, you know, a really low seed that just makes a sweet 16. It can be a kind of low seed that makes a Final Four, however you want to define it, giving your most likely Cinderella.
- [60:54]
C
Most likely Cinderella. I'll give you two. I think South Florida, the 11 seed or High Point, the 12 seed would be two teams that I look at because I like their path to potentially get to the second weekend. South Florida, Louisville, again, they have not been able to beat a good team all year. They're one of the most overrated teams in the country. All this hype. They do run an exciting offense. They shoot a lot of threes, but they just don't beat good teams. South Florida, their head coach, Brian Hodgson, comes from the NATO coaching tree at Alabama. So when you watch the Bulls play, it's a lot like when you watch Alabama play. Fast tempo, a lot of threes, but they're good defensively, they're rugged, they're tough, and that's going to be a heck of a game. And then I think they got a good shot at beating Michigan State, too. High Point, I think is a terrible matchup. For Wisconsin, a lot of people have been talking about how the Badgers are one of these teams can lose in the first round, make the Final Four, which is true. This is a bad matchup for them with High point is a 12. The Panthers are one of the best mid major offensive teams in the country that shoot a lot of threes, make a lot of threes and they're also one of the best defenses in the country at forcing turnovers. So when you're going up against those guards, Boyd and Blackwell in Wisconsin, they got some guys on the perimeter that can make life tough for them, pressure them and force them into some turnovers. So. And then again, if a High Point gets past Wisconsin, you're dealing with Acuff so they can throw some different guys at him that even though you can't stop Acuff, they'll definitely try and tear him out as much as they can wear them out. So those would be the two Cinderellas
- [62:23]
A
I'd look at going back to South Florida real quick. Hodgson is going to be coaching at a bigger school very soon, I think. I think he's a should pick up the phone as soon as they absolutely should if they know what they're doing, which recent history tells us maybe they don't. I'm glad you picked some double digit seats too because like we always see, there's a double digit seed in Sweet sixteen. Happens like clockwork. We'll get out of here on gut reaction Final four picks. We've been kind of talking about it, but we're not beholden to these. We could change it between now and Thursday, but on Sunday night as we record this, you are shooting from the hip. You know, just like I said, kind of gut reaction Final four picks. I'll give you mine first. I'm going to go St. John's in the east, I am going to go Arizona in the West. The Midwest is probably my least favorite one to pick. I don't want to take Michigan, but I kind of feel forced to because I just, I can't take Virginia and you talked me out of Iowa State so I'll say Michigan and then, and then Houston which, which is too chalky But I guess St. John's is a little, a little bit different. I'll go St. John's and Houston and then Arizona and Michigan as my gut check. Final Four here. What do you got?
- [63:36]
C
I got Arizona, Michigan, Houston and Yukon. So we're, we're very, we're very alike there.
- [63:42]
A
Same three teams plus a big east team.
- [63:44]
C
I hate it. But it's like, okay, so then do I put St. Mary's there? Like, am I really. Like, no, I'm not going to do that. Like, do I want to put Virginia and Iowa State? I really don't. So. I know it's hard. A lot of people are going to have the same kind of Final Four teams. It sucks. It's.
- [63:59]
A
Who's, who's the team in, in that Final Four scenario that you're most scared that, like, they're going to burn you for leaving them off. Because, like, I, I feel like floor. I mean, it could be Duke just be like, hey, this is the best team in the country. It could be Florida. Like, hey, defending champs who were. Who were, you know, really hot right up until one game where Vanderbilt shot like crazy.
- [64:19]
C
Who scares Zaga? Purdue. I think those.
- [64:23]
A
Purdue's a great call. If, if, man, I. Purdue would be in my Final Four if they weren't in Arizona's reason I say that right now.
- [64:28]
C
So I'm going to have Arizona.
- [64:32]
A
I'm.
- [64:32]
C
I'm trying to figure out, do I have Arizona on my bracket but bet a future on Gonzaga and Purdue to make the Final Four, or do I pick Purdue and Gonzaga to go to the Final Four and bet a future on Arizona? Because it's like you get the worst odds on Arizona and not as many people in your bracket are going to have Purdue and Gonzaga. Right? Or do you put Arizona in there and get the better odds with Purdue and Gonzaga? I think that's how I'm going to probably going to end up playing it. I tell you, Worm, though, I just again, like, we couldn't have Gonzaga in like the South Region. We couldn't have Purdue in like the Midwest Region. Like, that's, that's what we.
- [65:05]
A
You put Purdue in the south and Gonzaga in the Midwest. This is a very different conversation.
- [65:11]
C
Feeling better? Yeah, those would be the two.
- [65:14]
A
All right, we'll go ahead and wrap up there. Like I said, a whole lot more coming largely from here. It will be more betting Focus. We wanted to do kind of a bracket reaction here for Sunday night. Have some fun with everybody. If you want to get more of these shows, largely will be over on the Betting Pros feed. So be sure to be following us there. If you are interested, both on YouTube and on the audio side, be sure to check out PJ Also with Game Day Garage and Hoops in five with PJ Glasser. Pj, thank you so much for coming on on. I know it's a late night for you, but it's a fun night, right? You just. You're just talking college hoops. What's better than that? So I appreciate you making the time.
- [65:48]
C
Thanks, Worm, for having me. Always Good time, my friend. I'll talk to you again. I'll talk to you again soon.
- [65:53]
A
We'll talk soon. Thanks everybody for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X and TikTok betting pros and Instagram eddingpros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com bettingpros.
- [66:25]
D
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E
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A
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