4 Fantasy Football BUSTS Experts Avoid | Do Not Draft These Overvalued Wide Receivers in 2026 (Ep. 2020)

Summary

---

FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast

Episode: 4 Fantasy Football BUSTS Experts Avoid | Do Not Draft These Overvalued Wide Receivers in 2026 (Ep. 2020)

Broadcast Date: May 12, 2026
Host: Ryan Warmley
Guests: Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros), Jake Seely (The Athletic)

---

Episode Overview

In this episode, the FantasyPros crew—Ryan Warmley, Andrew Erickson, and Jake Seely—dive into the early 2026 wide receiver draft landscape. They specifically focus on overvalued wide receivers their expert network is avoiding at current cost (ADP/ECR). Each expert shares two receivers to put on your "Do Not Draft" list, thoroughly discussing injury concerns, changing team situations, red flags from early reports, and positional competition.

Their insights are delivered with a candid, debate-heavy tone, punctuated by data, insights from player usage, and early draft trends. This summary will break down their key points, notable quotes, and arguments, with timestamps for each major topic.

---

Key Discussion Points & Segment Breakdown

1. Introduction and Approach to “AVOID” (00:35–01:20)

• The experts clarify their approach: avoid “at cost” does NOT mean a player should be off every roster, but that the current ADP is unjustifiably high given the red flags.
• Focus is on half-PPR leagues; analysis is rooted in early May rankings—likely to shift as preseason unfolds.

---

2. Jake’s First Wide Receiver Bust: Malik Nabers (01:20–04:25)

Player: Malik Nabers – New York Giants

• Current ADP/ECR: WR9, 17th overall.

Key Arguments:

• Injury Uncertainty
  • “Week one’s in question whether or not he’s even on the field, let alone 100%.” (Jake Seely, 02:38)
  • Surgery occurred later than expected, recovery timeline unclear.
• Coaching Change Concerns
  • Jim Harbaugh is an unknown in this context, possible run-heavy tendencies.
• Competition and Risk
  • Names Jake would rather draft at cost: Nico Collins, Chris Olave, Rashee Rice, George Pickens, Drake London.
  • Prefers to take known commodities producing from Week 1.
• Draft Range
  • Once adjusting for RBs/TEs, has Nabers closer to 27th–28th overall.
  • "When you have...the riskiest [pick], push them down a little bit." (Jake Seely, 03:50)

Panel Reaction:

• Erickson: Predicts his price will drop once PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) status is confirmed.
• Warmley: Points out that pessimistic updates are even more concerning in "best-shape-of-their-life" season.
• Erickson: Nabers is hard to rank—"right now you just can’t really draft [him] with a lot of confidence because I just think the price is going to go down." (05:09)

---

3. Erickson’s First Bust: Davante Adams (06:15–09:02)

Player: Davante Adams – Los Angeles Rams

• Current Price: Mid WR2 range

Key Arguments:

• Touchdown-Dependent 2025 Production
  • "[He] scored 15 touchdowns on a career-low catch rate of 53%." (Andrew Erickson, 06:44)
  • Matt Stafford posted an unlikely, career-high TD% (7.7%), almost certainly regressing.
• Age and Injury
  • Adams is 33, missed time with lower-body injuries in 2025
• Statistical Red Flags
  • Career-low YAC per catch
  • Even with optimistic projections, only projects as WR17 per Mike Clay
• Conclusion
  • “I just don’t see a player that is going to arise like he did last year...being drafted closer to his ceiling than his floor.” (Andrew Erickson, 08:00)

Panel Reaction:

• Jake Seely: Agrees with points but thinks Adams is “properly valued,” and may be a draft value as drafters keep pushing him down further.
  • “He can be your last one of the tier and still get him later…” (10:32)
• Warmley: Notes the depth of this ADP tier (Zay Flowers, Laviska Shenault, DeVonta Smith, Garrett Wilson all near Adams).

---

4. Jake’s Second Bust: Brian Thomas Jr. (12:51–15:34)

Player: Brian Thomas Jr. – Jacksonville Jaguars

• Current ADP: 90th overall, similar to teammates Jacoby Myers (93rd), Parker Washington (95th)

Key Arguments:

• Misfit with Jaguars’ Offense
  • “He doesn’t care about Brian Thomas...Once they got Jacoby Myers and Parker Washington...Brian Thomas was running 20 yards downfield every single play. When you start running 20 yards downfield for your ADOT, your reception rate...inherently drops.” (Jake Seely, 13:08)
  • Reception rate dropped nearly 50% after all three WRs were healthy.
• Volume Concerns
  • Trevor Lawrence targets slot/quick open routes; Parker Washington & Myers fit this better.
  • Jake predicts Thomas won’t be fantasy-relevant unless injuries change the depth chart.

Panel Reaction:

• Erickson: Compares situation to Christian Kirk and Evan Engram’s prime with Lawrence. Sees Thomas more as a dynasty stash or buy-low trade chip, not redraft.
  • “Maybe that makes him more of a dynasty buy…look up, maybe gets traded to the Rams.” (16:46)

---

5. Erickson’s Second Bust: Jameson Williams (17:13–23:52)

Player: Jameson Williams – Detroit Lions

• Current ECR: WR25

Key Arguments:

• Production Reliant on Specific Circumstances
  • Explosive 2025 finish was due to Dan Campbell calling plays + Sam LaPorta injury.
  • “First half of the season, weeks 1 through 7, he was outside the top 50 WRs in points per game and somehow…ended up finishing as a back-end fantasy WR1.” (Andrew Erickson, 17:22)
• Role Change and Coordinator Switch
  • 2026 OC Drew Petzing favors tight ends & two-TE sets (from Arizona).
  • Expect Laporta’s return to throttle Williams’s targets.
• Big Statistical Drop with Competition
  • With Laporta active, Williams lost 2.5 targets/game and over 4 full ppr points/game.
• Boom/Bust Profile
  • “He can win your week and he can absolutely nuke your week…and that’s a player that carries a lot of bust risk.” (Andrew Erickson, 18:48)

Panel Reaction:

• Jake Seely: Fully agrees. Points to his viral tweet: “We finally got the Jameson Williams breakout—what did it cost you? Sam LaPorta.” (19:27)
• Petzing’s history likely means fewer three-WR sets and more TE involvement.
• Panel debates Williams vs. Jalen Waddle (Broncos), Marvin Harrison, Alec Pierce—most prefer alternatives within the same tier.
• Tesla’s Role: Jake and Erickson also flag Isaac Tesla as a threat to cut into Williams’ snaps: “He’s a more complete wide receiver in my opinion.” (Jake Seely, 23:04)
• Seely's final draft-position take: “[Williams] makes a great WR4—plug him in there and deal with the ups and downs.” (22:46)

---

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Malik Nabers Injury:
  • “Week one’s in question whether or not he’s even on the field, let alone 100%.” (Jake Seely, 02:38)
• On Injury Season Optimism:
  • “This time of year all you get are optimistic updates. So when you're getting pessimistic updates…that's an even bigger red flag.” (Ryan Warmley, 05:54)
• On Davante Adams’s Red Flag Stats:
  • “Career-low catch rate of 53%...everything screams a player that is not going to be able to replicate what he did a year ago.” (Andrew Erickson, 06:44)
• On Brian Thomas Jr.:
  • “Brian Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguar, pains me to say, will not be drafted on a lot of my teams.” (Jake Seely, 14:58)
• On Jameson Williams’s Volatility:
  • “He can win your week and he can absolutely nuke your week.” (Andrew Erickson, 18:48)
• On Buying Low:
  • “Jameson Williams is a player you want to buy when his stock is down. …You don’t buy him at his type of price when he’s locked and loaded.” (Andrew Erickson, 23:48)

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Intro and Approach — 00:35–01:20
• Malik Nabers Debate (Jake) — 01:20–05:54
• Davante Adams Critique (Erickson) — 06:15–11:01
• Brian Thomas Jr. Analysis (Jake) — 12:51–15:34
• Jameson Williams Breakdown (Erickson) — 17:13–23:52

---

Final Takeaways

• Injury Risks & Team Changes Matter: Young or productive players (Nabers, Williams) are not always safe if they’re coming off injury or facing scheme/coaching changes.
• Age and Efficiency Warning Signs: Veterans like Adams can mask decline with big TD years, but those signals often regress fast.
• Depth Chart & Role Competition: Crowded receiver rooms (Jaguars, Lions) muddy fantasy waters—experts prefer slot WRs/volume players aligning with their QB’s style.
• Draft with Caution: All panelists agree that at current ADP, the four names discussed are riskier than their positional/overall price implies. Focus on players with safer floors and less uncertainty for early round investments.

---

For further insights, ranking updates, and community discussion, the panel encourages listeners to join the FantasyPros Discord and follow ongoing preseason coverage.

Transcript

[Ryan Warmley]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Safeway/Albertsons Advertiser]

Guaranteed Human Save on Family Essentials at Safeway and Albertsons this week at Safeway and Albertsons Fresh cut cantaloupe, watermelon, pineapple or melon medley bowls 24 ounces are $5 each and wild caught lobster tails are $4.99 each. Limit eight member price plus selected sizes and varieties of Doritos Lays, Cheetos, Sun Chips and Kettle cook chips are $1.99 each. Limit four member price. Hurry in. These deals won't last. Visit Safeway or albertsons.com for more deals and ways to save.

[Ryan Warmley]

Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Channel. I'm Ryan, warmly joined by Andrew Erickson and Jake Seely from the Athletic we are talking some wide receivers that the experts are avoiding. We are giving you a couple of names each to not draft these overvalued wide receivers. It's still early May, right? This stuff is time to change. But as we see it right now, the way the rankings and early ADP and all that stuff looks like these are the names that we are avoiding. Reminder for anybody who wants to check out those early rankings, our 2026 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com rankings. We'll be kind of looking at this through the prism of like half PPR rankings as kind of the standard. But of course you can navigate PPR standard, all that good stuff. We'll go ahead and dive right in here. Jake, who is the first receiver that you are avoiding?

[Jake Seely]

Well, let me make it clear is avoiding At Cost because the name I'm about to say is everybody's just going to turn off video and be like, Jake's dumb. I'm not listening to this guy. I mean that's pretty much a common take anyway. But when it comes down to at Cost and we were asked to pick guys that are inside the top 12 and then within the top 36. So for mine, I'm going with Malik Neighbors At Cost. It's just because of the names in front of Malik Neighbors that I would put in front of him right now. I think that he's what, at 9, 8 or 9? Wide receiver? For the ADP or expert successes ranks, I would go lower. I have him at 12. Like it's not crazy, but it's three spots. It's enough to say like in this range to have somebody inside the top 12 that's three spots off from ECR is pretty significant. And it just comes, like I said, it just comes down to I would take Nico Collins, I would take Chris Olave. I would take Rasheed Rice, George Pickens, Drake London, and then obviously, we're inside the top six of Justin Jefferson. But it's more about those bottom names. It just comes down to what is Malik Neighbors for week one. Like, there's a big question of how healthy he was or how healthy he will be because the injury and the surgery was a little bit later. The surger part specifically was a little bit later than people expected. It took a little bit more time. So week one's in question whether or not he's even on the field, let alone 100%. So do we have to play September as in a previous Giant, Saquon Barkley, way back in the day where it took him all of September to get back to 100%, unfortunately. Hopefully he doesn't go down that road because then immediately after that, When Barclay was 100%, he blew his ankle against the Cowboys. But it did take September to get there, and that's just my only concern, on top of the fact that, like I said, that's my only concern. But let's also acknowledge there's a little bit of risk here with the. The change of Harbaugh. We've seen his style before with the Ravens and that, yeah, one wide receiver can be valuable, but is there a second he's bringing in likely his guy. They paid through the nose, really, to go get that pick. Now I'm just forgetting his name brand. Malachi Fields. And then they brought in Darlo Mooney. Not saying, like, any of those are a significant threat to a healthy Malik Neighbors, but Malik Neighbors with these concerns just, again, I'm just taking the names I know should be producing from day one versus one. I might have to wait a few weeks for when.

[Ryan Warmley]

Yeah, you're. So you're talking about this in terms of, like, where he is amongst the receivers, obviously, like wide receiver 9 and ECR. And some of the names that you like better, are you also considering other positions kind of in this range of drafts? 17th overall, some of the names around him, Trey McBride at tight, Ed Chase Brown Saquon, Omarion Hampton, Ashton Jenses a couple spots ahead. You like all those guys better?

[Jake Seely]

Derek Henry, Kyron Williams. Yes, yes. Like, I have him in the low 20s overall. Again, it's just names that are in front of them. So you have the wide receivers, that's 11 wide receivers. And then you have a big chunk of running backs that come into play, including McBride and Bowers. So, yeah, by the time you get to it, once you Include Henry and Williams, which gets me down to my like RB12. Now he's right around overall, 27, 28. So it looks like I hate the guy but it just comes down to when you have. We're nitpicking the first two, almost three rounds, I'm just going to take the one that's the riskiest and push them down a little bit.

[Clifford Taylor the Fourth]

Yeah.

[Ryan Warmley]

Erickson, what do you think about Neighbors?

[Andrew Erickson]

I think that his price is going to go down because he's going to be on the PUP and like once you get that flag of medical alert on whatever draft platform you're looking at, he's just naturally going to go down in the ranking. So I think that right now if you're drafting in best ball formats, I don't think it makes a lot of sense to draft someone like Malik Neighbors because he's going to be.

[Jake Seely]

I mean that would be even worse, wouldn't you say? 28 is too high. Andrew, if he does end up on the puppet to answer to ask a question, which is Worm's job, but it's all our job.

[Andrew Erickson]

So what 28, that means he's going round early, round three.

[Jake Seely]

But I'd put him down further if you were throwing that out there. If that actually happens.

[Andrew Erickson]

I mean, I think that's going to happen, right. If he's going to miss a couple weeks, why throw him out there? Anyway, Harbaugh is the brand new head coach and I think that he's playing a long term game with the New York Giants. They don't need to win in 2026 and what is it good does it do for them to throw Malik Neighbors out there if he's not 100%. And to your point, most of the reports have been more pessimistic than optimistic. And this is, this is clear cut optimistic. Everyone is in the best shape of their life season right now here in May and when you're not, it's oh, this is a red flag that we really need to pay attention to. So I agree with you that he's just a really hard guy to rank. I have him in actually my tiers. He's like in his own tier and it's like what's the latest update on Lake Neighbors? Because right now you just can't really draft a lot of confidence because I just think the price is going to go down.

[Ryan Warmley]

You took the words out of my mouth there, Erickson, that this time of year all you get are optimistic updates. So when you're getting pessimistic updates on someone that's like an even bigger red flag to me than it normally would be just on face value because this is the time of year where that usually doesn't happen. So I think that's a good point by you. Let's go to your first overvalued receiver, Erickson.

[Andrew Erickson]

I'm going with wide receiver for the Los Angeles Rams, devonte Adams. So he's priced right now in the mid wide receiver 2 range and I think that is, it's not too, too high. But there are other players, specifically a guy going right after him that I would take 100 times out of 100 times say flowers. I, I want to have a player that is entering, I think closer to their prime years. Flowers has had gotten better three straight seasons and I look at devonte Adams and everything to me when I look at his specific profile screams a player that is not going to be able to replicate what he did a year ago. Very touchdown heavy production. He scored 15 touchdowns on a career low catch rate of 53%. Matthew Stafford through for a career high passing touchdown rate. What is the number one thing we look for in terms of will this pocket passing quarterback regress in the following season? You look right at their touch, their passing touchdown rate. 7.7% was a career high for Stafford. So if he's throwing less touchdowns and no longer force feeding touchdowns to Devonte Adams specifically this was an MVP narrative for Matthew Stafford. Sean McVay was incentivized to let's just throw the ball in the red zone. Yes, it's working but we want to make sure our guy gets the mvp. Let's force feed devonte Adams no matter what. So career loan yards after the catch per reception as well. So he's not generating as much yardage on his own. It's strictly on where is he running the route Again I still think that he can play at a high level but to the extent of will he able to replicate last year's production especially with it being so touchdown heavy, 33 years old, he missed time due to some lower body injuries in 2025. So for me I think that I just don't see a player that is going to arise like he did last year. I think that it's more likely he's going to finish worse significantly than he was compared to last season. And it's interesting because if you even look at some of the projections that are out there, I know I look at Mike Clay's a lot of time I know he released his he has demonte Adams tied for leading the NFL in touchdowns and he still only finishes at wide receiver 17. So it seems like the best case scenario, this is where he's probably going to finish. Whereas I'm trying to look at some of the red flags based on the efficiency falling off in his age. And maybe a player that's going to finish closer is being drafted closer to his ceiling than his floor. So that's why I think that Adams will be a disappointment. 2026.

[Ryan Warmley]

Yeah, Jake, I think the thing with Adams for me is that it's less about the player and more about some of the names around him. Like Erickson has historically been higher on Zay Flowers than you and I have. But like lad McConkey is in this range. Devonte Smith, obviously with AJ Brown likely gone, is in this range. Garrett Wilson is two spots ahead of him in the receiver rankings, even a few spots lower. If you believe that, you know, the second half of last year was more injury driven. There's just a lot of names in this tier that are exciting and to Ericsson's point, feel like they're more on the rise than on the decline.

[Jake Seely]

And that's fair. But I actually think he's properly valued, so I'm higher than Erickson is. Mostly because if you look after Week 13, he had three more touchdowns than anybody else. At wide receiver, he had more receiving touchdowns than anybody else. And then after week 14, he did too. After week 15, he did too. After 16, he did too. After week 7, oh, by the way, he didn't play those weeks because he had so many touchdowns before he got hurt. So I know what Andrew's saying, but I think I look at it more of this. Is that similar to Tyre Lockett with Russell Wilson and some other players we've seen in the past. And when it just comes down to being where he needs to be. Mike Evans for the longest time and recently with Baker Mayfield, is there certain players that do certain things that the quarterback looks specifically for? And I don't think that's going to change with Stafford and Adams, whether he throws five or six fewer touchdowns, I don't think would be a huge impact to Adams. I think it's to the rest. I think expecting them to catch that many touchdowns over the course of 17 games, I'd be okay with the 14 regular regular season games. 14 touchdowns in regular season games. I know I had the 15th after that, but I think the 14 would be a plain 17 games. I would be okay with that. It just comes down to the other parts that Andrew mentioned is you know the whether he stays healthy the other wide receivers in this range and that's where my bigger takeaway is. It's not so much the fact that I disagree heavily with Andrew on this. I'm okay with Adams. I've actually ended up with a lot of Adam so far in early drafts because if in this tier he can be your last one of the tier and still get him later on because everybody is drafting the flowers and like and I have no problem with that. So if you want to put him in this conversation, but understand that he's not going to go here like that. That's the biggest thing is he's not going to go in that range. Of those names, at least what I've seen so far. I don't I don't think the drafts are on the same page as the ranking, if that makes that clear is the drafts are clear, pushing him down to Andrew's point. And I think that's why he's actually kind of a value when you actually see where he goes in the drafts

[Nespresso Advertiser]

Busy morning or a slow sip latte kind of day? Whatever your morning calls for, the new Nespresso Vertuo up machine makes the perfect cup Latte Iced coffee Bold Espresso Explore a world of coffees with one button press. Enjoy effortless mornings made entirely your way with Nespresso Virtuo up new Vertuo up press to explore. Shop now at nespresso.com Last night, a

[Timbo]

blown call changed the game. This morning, the Internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source. The athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions. The stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight reel. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports slice on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slice Life 12 TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

[Ryan Warmley]

Quick reminder for everybody to join our Fantasy Pros Discord community Chat with other fans to get access to exclusive AMAs that wind up on our podcast feed. Here's our current Schedule myself and Fitz at 5 Eastern on the first Tuesday of every month. Bogman and Fitz at 5 Eastern on the third Tuesday of every month. Come get your questions answered and be on the show at fantasyprose.com/chat. All right, one more receiver from each of you. Jake, who are you not drafting at cost?

[Jake Seely]

This one pains me so much. That's what the chuckle is for. We're not in the widescreen, so you cannot see why it pains. I have a signed football of this player next to me and it pains me so much to say this because I was on him in college. I was on. Everybody loved the fact that I was on him for his rookie season and now kind of completely out, it's Brian Thomas. And it really just comes down to the makeup of this team. Everybody, including myself, were like, hey Mac Jones, Brian Thomas, at least Trevor Lawrence can do the same. No, he can't because he doesn't care about Brian Thomas. And that's the issue is once they got Jacoby Myers and a healthy Parker Washington, which by the way, this isn't like blip Parker Washington, age 29 season like this is still a very young career and people that had some high expectations as a sleeper value for what exactly he's doing, he's not going to be a top 20 wide receiver playing the outside. He's doing what he's doing and, and what he does. To go back to my argument about Adams with Stafford is Parker Washington gets open quick. He gets open over the middle of the field and where does Trevor Lawrence look first and often quick and over the middle of the field and Parker Washington's open. That's why he's getting the targets. That's why he's getting the targets and that's why he's getting targets. And then when he's not, a lot of times his quick second read is Jacoby Myers. While they made this shift, once they got Myers and Parker Washington and started sending Brian Thomas downfield 20 yards every single play. And that's the biggest thing as we know, whether you're talking NFL or fantasy, when you start running 20 yards downfield for your ADOT, your reception rate is going to drop. It inherently drops. No matter how good of a contested catcher you are, it drops because of the quarterback placement, the defenders and all that type of stuff. And you saw it is that there was almost a 50% jump once all three of them were playing healthy together. Brian Thomas's adopt and his receptions declined to almost 50%. Like that's how far they fell. He Was only catching almost 50% of his passes. So this vers Jaguars version Brian Thomas I'm just not going to have any teams. Hopefully like I know sounds really mean to say, hopefully Jacoby Myers or Parker Washington gets hurt and we can get Brian Thomas back or hopefully we get a new team for Brian Thomas. But Brian Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguar, pains me to say, will not be drafted on a lot of my teams.

[Ryan Warmley]

It's really interesting to me that in these early rankings they are all very close to each other, those three guys. I mean like just in the overall rankings. Brian Thomas Jr. 90th overall. Jacoby Myers 93rd, Parker Washington 95th. So that's three guys who play the same position on the same team within six complete reverse.

[Jake Seely]

Parker Washington, then Myers, then Thomas minor half point ppr. And I think in PPR you can even make a argument for a little bit of a gap of Parker to Jacobi Myers.

[Ryan Warmley]

They would actually be back to back to back at their own position wide receiver if not for Makai. Lemon is mixed in there as well in the position.

[Jake Seely]

Well, he should be much higher. Get him out of there.

[Ryan Warmley]

Yeah, we do want to back to back Erickson. What do you make of just the whole situation in Jacksonville really?

[Andrew Erickson]

Trevor Lawrence knows where his bread is buttered and it's not with Brian Thomas Jr. On the field. Take it back a couple years. Who was eating in this office with Trevor Lawrence? It was Christian Kirk, it was Evan Ingram. Those guys had really successful fantasies with Trevor Lawrence. And then we fast forward to last year where they bring in Jacoby Myers because he's a better fit for what Trevor Lawrence is doing in this Liam Cohen offense. Same thing with Parker Washington. What has historically been one of the best fantasy assets has been who is the primary slot receiver and Liam Cohen's offense. And a couple years ago was Chris Goblin. Parker Washington. Yeah, I know that Jacob Myers can also play inside too, but he was still when he was on that hot streak towards the end of the year, a lot of that was coming from the slot as well. So I get that he's not the sexy name but. And Brian Thomas had this monstrous rookie season that you don't want to completely forget about. But maybe that makes him more of a dynasty buy where hey, this offense right now with this coordinator and this quarterback is just not going to work. But look up maybe gets traded to the Rams. The Rams were looking for a wide receiver. Maybe they look at him as a player that they can acquire. They can attach to Ty Simpson for the future because right now his Value is very low on the Jacksonville Jaguar. So I agree with Jake. I don't think that you can really have a lot of confidence. You're just drafting him, hoping that okay, well he was really good as rookie. Well he wasn't really good last year and what has changed significantly is oh, Trevor Hunter is going to play more cornerback now. Is like that, Is that the selling point? Because the chemistry I just not there with the current quarterback in place.

[Ryan Warmley]

One more receiver to talk about here on this episode. Erickson, who do you have for us?

[Andrew Erickson]

Yeah, speaking of things that are painful to talk about, I have Jameson Williams here from the Detroit Lions and we talked about him a lot on the trade show Worm. Basically all of last year where what do I do with Jameson Williams? This guy is putting up goose egg after goose egg. First half of the season, weeks one through seven, he was outside the top 50 wide receivers in points per game and somehow some way he ended up finishing as a back end fantasy wide receiver 1. Now that is also telling about the position this year and last or excuse me, last year where you had your top guys and then it kind of fell off a cliff and it was very flat across the board when it comes to those other receivers in the wide receiver two tier which Williams was basically just at the top of the but it was twofold the change. Dan Campbell took over as the offensive play caller for the Detroit Lions and tight end Sam Laporta was placed on injured reserve and then Jama was basically off to the races en route to a another 1000 yard campaign back and fantasy wide receiver one status. Now fast forward to 2026. Well Dan Campbell, at least the latest that I've read, he's not calling plays. It's going to be Drew Petzing. The guy came from Arizona, Sam Laporta. They're expecting him to be fully healthy and ready to go coming off of his back injury. And when you look at the splits, pretty big sample size. 8 and 9 games with Sam Laporta in and out of the lineup. His full points per game drop by or excuse me, his targets per game dropped by 2.5 full PPR points per game dropped by over 4 points. He went from 80 receiving yards to just 52 and a half receiving yards and so that was over the eight final games that Sam Laporta missed. So although I recognize that Jameson Williams has a ton, a ton of upside, this guy is so boomer bust where he can win your week and he can absolutely nuke your week and that's a player that carries A lot of bust risk I think too. And I'm not sure if Jake was going to add this point, but Isaac Tesla also might be a player that takes on a larger role in the Detroit Lions offense. So that's another thing that I wanted to mention. When it comes to Jameson Williams, I think that he's a really fun player. I really like the talent, but I just think that for fantasy football purposes, he may leave a lot of drafters wanting a little bit more based on a consistency standpoint.

[Ryan Warmley]

Jake, Jameson Williams is wide receiver 25 in ECR. Is that too high, too low or just right in your opinion?

[Jake Seely]

Too high. And I'm going to take it back to a tweet I put out that kind of blew up and it's not being like haha, I had a tweet that blew up but it was from 2024 and it was the Thanos meme and it was what did it cost you? And I said we finally got the Jameson Williams breakout. And so what did it cost you? It cost you Sam laport. Because that's back with the offensive coordinator situation that I completely this one I completely agree with Andrew on. That's the change there is. You saw the swap over and then last year they went back to it. When Dan Campbell took back over, they went back to what was working in 2024. For the first half of last year we were all sitting there going why the hell did they turn Jameson Williams back into the Jameson Williams that wasn't being valuable. And then we saw the swish with Campbell and the injury that Andrew brought up. But the bigger thing here too is it's not just Petsing coming in and possibly heading back to using more Sam Laporta. He's going to because he uses a lot of 12 and 13 sets. He is actually a tight end kind of centric offensive coordinator and you saw what he was doing with McBride. You're telling me he's like that? Like I think LaPorta, I know we're not talking about him. I think he's one of the best values at tight end right now because he's not being drafted anywhere near the top five and he won't be. He's probably like 5, 6, 7, 8 or 6, 7, 8, but he's even down in like the 80s and 90s. I think you can get Laporta potentially back into the top five this year and and it's going to come at the cost of Jameson Williams, unfortunately, because that's just how this offense works.

[Ryan Warmley]

Yeah, I again sort of the point of what I was saying about Devonte Adams. It's a very large tier 4. But James Williams is in this tier also in our consensus rankings right now. And there's just other names here that I think are really interesting.

[Jake Seely]

He's.

[Ryan Warmley]

He's further down in that tier than those other names I read before, but

[Jake Seely]

they're all Jameson Williams or Jalen Waddle with the Broncos.

[Ryan Warmley]

As much as I don't love trusting Sean Payton.

[Jake Seely]

No, I did it because 100 Andrew and his love for Jalen Waddle.

[Ryan Warmley]

Yeah, no surprise there. I mean, Ibuko is one spot ahead of Jameson Williams in the consensus rankings. I'd rather bet on a book.

[Jake Seely]

I mean, you can make an argument for Alec Pierce over Jameson Williams.

[Andrew Erickson]

That's a. That's a really good. Because again, they're both vertical receivers except Alec Pierce is the one. Yeah.

[Ryan Warmley]

Even going.

[Jake Seely]

Might be the three.

[Ryan Warmley]

Even going down to the next tier. Like Christian Watson was awesome for, you know, a stretch last year in the second half. D.J. moore going to Buffalo. Roma Dunesay now with D.J. morgan here, I'll give you one get a lot. I like all those.

[Jake Seely]

Marvin Harrison or Jameson Williams.

[Ryan Warmley]

I want to believe so badly in Marvin. Marvin Harrison.

[Jake Seely]

But I think Marvin. The two people overlook this. I know we're not talking about Marvin. The two games that he was healthy with Michael Wilson and Jacoby Brissette. Jacoby Brissette treated him like the one, not Michael Wilson. Everybody needs to go back and look at that. Like I'm buying Marvin Harrison both in Dynasty and Redraft.

[Ryan Warmley]

I don't know if it's smart or not, but I'm probably going to say Harrison. It might be done, but I can't.

[Andrew Erickson]

I've heard I have Harrison ranked ahead, too. Yeah, I was just looking at it

[Jake Seely]

because we all hate Jameson Williams.

[Andrew Erickson]

Well, I had. Because the thing is I had Jameson Williams probably closer to where the ECR and ADP had him right around 21 or 22 because, man, this guy is so good. Finishes a wide receiver one. But then you just take a step back and you just recognize the things that we talked about where Campbell's not calling plays. San Laporte is back and what happened, it's outside the top 50. People were dropping him last year. He was available on waivers because of how bad he was to start the year.

[Jake Seely]

So he makes a great wide receiver four. Like you can just plug him in there and deal with the ups and downs.

[Andrew Erickson]

Do you think, Jake? I didn't. You didn't add any comments. So Maybe you didn't think of much of it, but do you think that Tesla could actually eat into Jameson Williams? I know you like Tesla as a prospect and I thought that his rookie year he showed some flashes.

[Jake Seely]

He's a more complete wide receiver in my opinion. I don't. I think the ceilings of both for everybody before they lose their minds. I think the ceilings if Jameson Williams would hit everything he can do has the higher ceiling and the better. But I think like, like Tesla doesn't have the speed and big play of Jameson, but he's like kind of. He's great at everything, not exceptional at anything. Jameson Williams has exceptional traits, but he's lacking in other areas. Like think of it like the NBA Jam thing, like with the chart. Like he, like, basically Tesla's like this and then Jameson Williams is the bars that are going like this. So my point being as I do think you could see two wide receiver sets where Tesla is all of a sudden on the field and not Jameson Williams this year, depending on what Petsing sees.

[Andrew Erickson]

Jameson Williams is a player that you want to buy the stock when it's down, right?

[Jake Seely]

Yes.

[Andrew Erickson]

Like after he posts a goose egg, then you go trade for him. You don't buy him at this type of price when he's locked and loaded. You got to be your wide receiver. Two week one and he could put up a goose egg and that would be shocking to literally nobody.

[Jake Seely]

Agreed.

[Ryan Warmley]

All right, we'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Those are our overvalued receivers to not draft this year at cost. Although again, it is still early for Jake and Erickson. I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple [e-mail] review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok Antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.

[Robert Smigel]

Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy not quite on Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman helped make you funnier this week. My guests, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an acapella band with their between songs banter.

[Andrew Erickson]

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

[Robert Smigel]

Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Timbo]

Last night, a blown call changed the game. This morning, the Internet lost its mind and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. And every episode we're through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source. The athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports slice on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo, Slice, Life 12 and the TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

[Clifford Taylor the Fourth]

What's up, guys? This is Clifford Taylor the Fourth, and on my podcast, the Clifford Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff, like being an Internet famous refere. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.

[Isaiah Thomas]

What?

[Clifford Taylor the Fourth]

Time out. Look, quarterback on off is blue 42.

[Jake Seely]

Hey, ref.

[Clifford Taylor the Fourth]

Mom, I'mma want you to weigh better.

[Jake Seely]

What?

[Clifford Taylor the Fourth]

Where's she at? Hey, Ms. Parker. Listen to the Clifford show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Isaiah Thomas]

What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas and I'm CJ Toledano.

[Andrew Erickson]

It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point game, the playoffs.

[Isaiah Thomas]

We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season, and I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was fine.

[Andrew Erickson]

You just understood.

[Isaiah Thomas]

That's how personal it gets.

[Andrew Erickson]

Wow.

[Isaiah Thomas]

Then after that game seven, markip coming to you, he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball.

[Andrew Erickson]

So listen to Point game on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Nespresso Advertiser]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Ryan Warmley]

Guaranteed Human.