← FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
4 Fantasy Football DRAFT VALUES Experts Love to Target | Players Who Will Outperform Their Rankings (Ep. 2024)
00:20:17
Loading summary
Transcript77 lines
- [00:00]
Ryan Warmley
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human want to get more work done with less effort.
- [00:07]
Edwin Castro
On TikTok creators are sharing AI automation
- [00:10]
Jake Seeley
tips that save time and deliver better results.
- [00:14]
Edwin Castro
Tap to discover try TikTok now.
- [00:20]
Ryan Warmley
Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros channel. I'm Ryan, warmly joined by Jake Seeley from the Athletic and by Derek Brown. We are talking players that the experts love to target. This is early on in draft season, right? This is a malleable living document of a list. We are saying we can change our mind on these. It is only mid May, but as of where we stand on mid May, looking at some of these early rankings you can find by the way all the consensus rankings and tiers for 2026 at fantasypros.com rankings. Looking at those half half PPR ECR rankings, we are saying who we like. We're going to pick pick a name each from inside the top 75 overall and then pick a name each from outside the top 75 overall. This is supposed to be just general values. We like you guys did happen to both pick two wide receivers so we could almost call it a wide receivers we love to target episode. That was just happenstance. These are just players.
- [01:11]
Jake Seeley
It's on me. I thought it was only wide receivers.
- [01:14]
Derek Brown
No, it's just blame it on Jake. Blame it on Jake. He'll be safe if you just blame
- [01:17]
Ryan Warmley
it on but it's fine because we love to draft wide receivers in general so we're happy to do that. All right, let's start off with the top 75 guys. Debro, who do you love to target in this range?
- [01:28]
Derek Brown
I, I feel like I just, I'm a broken record guys. But it's another year so I'm going to talk about Christian Watson again. But really the, the productivity was there where I don't understand like right now in ECR he's 56 overall. He's wide receiver 27. It's like we all fell asleep and didn't see what he did for the majority of when he was healthy last year. He was awesome. He was wide receiver 21 in eight weeks, eight through 17. Romeo Dobbs is gone. Tucker Craft is still in limbo coming off the torn acl. So what do we get out of him then? You got Matthew Goldman, Jaden Reed who's not even a full time player in the packers offense and yet Christian Watson producing as a wide receiver two last year is a wide receiver three in ranks like he's my wide receiver 21. I've got him at 40 40th overall like he just produces. And now the Runway with dos gone Craft we know is probably not going to be 100% for most of the year. Even when he is out there, Luke Musgrave can't draw targets. I'm all in a Christian Watson yet again this year because when he was on the field 2.67 yards per route run, 23% first reach here. He's going to be their wide receiver one this year.
- [02:32]
Ryan Warmley
And he was, I mean you said like wide receiver 21. I think from when he came back it was he was like wide receiver 13 from week 11 on. Like after those first few weeks he was like a legitimately basically a wide receiver one in 12 tilting leagues. Yeah, he was really, really good and obviously there was a lot of spike weeks in there, like league winning weeks with some of his big touchdown days. Yeah, I, I think the reputation of the packers is oh, they like spread the ball around, you know, don't. You know it. They don't have a true wide receiver one. But like Watson pretty much was that in fantasy for the last two months of the season. So I, I'm right there with you. Do you have any concerns dbro? Just about like, you know, injury stuff in general with him like, like long term or like this season. Do you see him as an injury risk or you're like, no, it's fine. He's like kind of well past that.
- [03:17]
Derek Brown
I mean I think injuries are always a risk with any player, especially when we talk about the, the injury history of Christian Watson. But I'm more on the side of, I think he's got the hamstring stuff figured out coming off the torn acl. The proof of concept of being healthy and then showing another layer to his game is like he stepped up and he was that guy last year. So I again, a player that I've loved ever since he hit the NFL. So I'm probably more comfortable absorbing that risk at where he's going. But again, I kind of feel like like you talked about Worm, like he was the top 15 wide receiver when it mattered most for fantasy leagues last year and the situation has done nothing but improve for him in this off season. So if anything, I feel like even my ranking is baking in some of that risk. If there is risk.
- [04:03]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah. Jake, the interesting thing for me with Watson is that so many of the names around him in the wide receiver rankings are players that I really like. Like in a row in tier five in our consensus rankings, it's Christian Watson, DJ Moore, Roma Dunes, Carnell Tate, like, these are names that I'm very interested in this year, so it's definitely just a Ranger. I want to be playing in that end of the pool with the wide receivers. But I do really like Christian Watson as well. I'm. I'm alongside D. Ro on this. Where do you come down on him? He's wide receiver 27 in ECR.
- [04:32]
Jake Seeley
Yeah, I'm a little bit higher than ECR. Not quite as high as DBro. I do have, as you know, if we were doing this show and we hadn't done our shows yesterday already or the day before, I would talk about DJ because I do have DJ Moore inside my top 20. But I think Watson's in this entire group. Like, DJ Moore's in the same tier as Watson, though. Like. Like, if you want to, like, play this tier and say, like, I think that's what gets lost a lot of times is, like, we're saying, okay, we think these guys are undervalued, and people are like, oh, my God. Well, then either I have to take them or I have to call you an idiot, because I don't agree. Here's the good thing is, like, when we're talking about groups and names, as you just brought up, is, like, if you like one of those names, More like we're saying they deserve to be in the conversation. I think what Debro is saying here, where I agree with, is Christian Watson deserv to be in the conversation as a clear wide receiver, too, if not potentially more. And that's really what we're getting to here. So if you disagree, I understand. Like, the only concern might be, like, you brought up Tucker Craft if Tucker Kraft was 100%, because at the end of the year, the last four games where Watson and Reed played together, it was 21 targets, Watts and 17 reads. So that's still good. They just gave Reed the extension golden looks like. I mean, it's only one year, but it looks like we didn't get anything we hope to get out of him. So, like, if golden takes a step up and if Kraft is anywhere near 100%, then maybe you talk, the target share comes down. But then, even then, Watson goes back to old Watson, which is about to be similar to the player I'm bringing up, where, okay, he only gets six targets, five targets, but there's a good chance one of them turns into 30 yards or a touchdown, and he's going to still be that guy. I think the biggest thing with Debro and the Watson thing that I'm surprised you didn't bring up is, it's funny how we sit here in fantasy and we're like, we want this player to be this. We want this player to be this. We want this player to be this. And then he's finally this because he stayed healthy. And then everybody's like, well, well, I don't, I don't really know if I like him anymore.
- [06:15]
Derek Brown
That's, that's a perfect point. Jake. It's like people just, they want it so badly and then when it actually happens, they're like, yeah, but he didn't do it for the whole year. Okay.
- [06:24]
Ryan Warmley
What?
- [06:24]
Derek Brown
He was coming off a torn acl and then he did it immediately when he got back on the field. So it's like, what else do you want? And, and for the record, I'm absolutely with you on DJ Moore. I've got.
- [06:33]
Jake Seeley
Oh, I know. We looked at the, we looked at the expert Cass answers, We looked through the ranks and mentioned who was in
- [06:38]
Ryan Warmley
line, who had him ranked highest. And Jake was like, oh, dbro's like challenging me here at D. Let's go. All right, Jake, who is your higher ranked player that you love to target?
- [06:48]
Jake Seeley
So let's talk to you more. No, I'm just kidding. Like, it's funny. Like you, you speak about this too. Is like Alec Pierce. I don't understand what's going on with his ranking because we just got Alec Pierce, breakout season. We just got Michael Pittman traded away from this team and now your number two is Josh Downs, which I think is undervalued. I'm not going to talk about Josh Downs today, but it's Josh Downs or Tyler Warren who's going to step up as the two when the answer is, okay, well, the one is clearly the one has very little competition, if any, to be the one. And Alec Pierce. And if you look at the fact of like what he did with Daniel Jones and maybe that's part of it, maybe it'll be like, well, is Daniel Jones going to be 100% for week one? The interesting thing was is he had four touchdowns without Daniel Jones, two with him. And I'm not saying we can carry that over because there was two huge stinkers without Daniel Jones that we saw actually a zero point game mixed in there. But I think worst case scenario is also those other two really good games. And the one where Daniel Jones left and play it half the game without him, he actually had more yards without Daniel Jones in that game after Daniel Jones left. But anyway, point being, if you just take those four, you had two 20 point games and then you had two stinkers. Who does that sound like? Oh, remember DeSean Jackson when he did that every year? And then he was like wide receiver two every single year. And that's what it is. I have Alec Pierce in the conversation to be a wide receiver too, because he's going to get 120, 30 targets even in this offense. That's going to run plenty because he's the one. This team clearly wants him to be the one. And he finally broke out. And like, similar to the Christian Watson thing is like we finally got the breakout and then people still have them down in like the 30s. I like, I have them, what, eight spots over consensus and that's still only wide receiver 26. And I'm trying, like, I want to get him, but to go back to what I said before, I want to get them higher because I like them so much. But then we're talking about Terry McLaurin versus him, Devontae Smith versus him, Burden versus him, McLaren versus here's the big thing. I think he deserves to be in the conversation with those wide receivers, even if he doesn't necessarily need to be wide receiver 20 and kind of overvalued at that point.
- [08:49]
Ryan Warmley
DBRA, where's he at for you?
- [08:51]
Derek Brown
Wide receiver 22.
- [08:53]
Jake Seeley
Oh, so Deborah's giving like, I hate him. I hate him.
- [08:57]
Derek Brown
I mean, dude. But seriously, like, why do people not want Alec Pierce for all the reasons you stated? And then when I, I peeked under the hood and I looked at all of his metrics, I was like, there's nothing that he's not popping in. Like you talk about yards per route, run versus man 1.95 versus zone 2.45 versus single high 2.7 versus two high 1.7. Like, I understand the role that he operated in last year. That role is going to be different this year. He's the clear, no questions, number one in the passing attack. Fine. Even with Daniel Jones like equated in here. And I have a lot of worries about Daniel Jones this year. But even regardless of that, why is he or how can he not be ranked as like a wide receiver too, in rankings based off of purely volume, nothing else.
- [09:43]
Ryan Warmley
I want to let everybody know that our Dynasty draft simulator lets you crush a full mock in minutes with absolutely no waiting between picks. You can customize every setting to match your league's exact format. And for our MVP and Hall of Fame subscribers, you can even test trade scenarios by mocking with your actual traded draft picks. Not at that tier yet. You can grab a three day free trial of a premium subscription right now at fantasyprose.com dynasty26 prepare for rookie drafts and dynasty startup drafts all in one place. Go to fantasypros.com simulator to be the most prepared person on Draft Day. All right guys, you each have a Name outside the top 75 overall DBRA. Where you at?
- [10:22]
Grainger Ad
If you work in university maintenance, Grainger considers you an MVP because your playbook ensures your arena is always ready for tip off. And Grainger is your trusted partner offering the products you need all in one place. From H Vac and plumbing supplies to lighting and more. And all delivered with plenty of time left on the clock so your team always gets the win. Call 1-800-GRAINGER visit granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.
- [10:52]
Robert Smigel Promo
Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy not quite on Humor Me with Robert Smigel and Friends Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier this week. My guests, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Sideel, help an acapella band with their between songs banter.
- [11:11]
Derek Brown
Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.
- [11:13]
Robert Smigel Promo
Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [11:23]
Derek Brown
How in the ever loving hell is Parker Washington outside the top 75 players? Did. Did everybody just miss Brian Thomas Jr. Becoming only a field stretching option? Did everybody miss what Parker Washington did in the back half of the season usurping Jacoby Myers and this offense for the Jaguars breaking out? Like I don't understand it. He's my wide receiver 27. He's wide receiver 41 in ECR. I have him as a 53rd overall player. ECR has him in 95th so he's almost outside the top 100. I. I just. I'm begging that ECR wakes the heck up because week 16 through 19 guys, I can make a case and an easy case here to even bump him even higher in the rankings. He was the white like he averaged 22.3 fantasy points per game in weeks 16 through 19. That would have made him the wide receiver two overall for the year in fantasy points per game. Now am I putting that type of label and saying he will be a wide receiver one this year? No. But considering during that stretch he got a 28.9 target share, he averaged 113 receiving yards per game, had 3.7 yards per route run. In those four games, his high leverage usage was off the freaking charts. He had six red zone targets and 1313 deep targets. So regardless of however you want to splice this up, he was the clear wide receiver one for Jackson. He got almost all of their high leverage usage. Unless we think the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to absolutely face plant this year, why do we not want their clear wide receiver 1 and why is he a wide receiver 4 in rankings? Somebody needs to explain this to me.
- [13:07]
Ryan Warmley
We Jake talked a lot about the Jacksonville receiving room earlier this week. So I'll, I'll let you weigh in here.
- [13:15]
Jake Seeley
I mean, yeah, if anybody didn't watch the other video. The, the video was about how it pains me to say that Brian Thomas vastly overrated right now. And that really hurts is because the short version, because DBRO just went into a lot and echoed a lot of what I was saying is that they basically turned Brian Thomas into a field stretcher and that's really all it was, is because once all three were there, Parker Washington, Jacobi Myers and Brian Thomas every game after that, Brian Thomas's A dot jumped 50%, almost about 50%. After that he was running 20 yards downfield. And the biggest thing is even to go back to what you said D row like even if they don't face plant or do faceplant, whatever it is, Trevor Lawrence isn't going to change. And what Trevor Lawrence does is he looks for his first read short, intermediate and he goes there a lot. And then if he doesn't, he goes to the second one, which is often still short to intermediate. He doesn't start looking downfield and he doesn't do it that often unless there's a design play for it or the other things are just so well covered and he has time, which is. That's what happened. Brian Thomas's target share dropped almost 50% and of those targets, a lot of them were that huge a dot which we know those turn into almost 50, 50 balls even if you're not strongly covered. So that was a little bit longer version than I wanted to say. But I do have Parker Washington as anybody who watched that video as the highest Jaguars wide receiver. And I've been with Debro in this the entire time as Parker Washington should be because he's Trevor Lawrence's binky. Really. That's what it comes down to.
- [14:41]
Derek Brown
Jacksonville, Amon, Ross, St. Brown, nobody wants that. And Jake, we talked about this a second ago. People talk about the slot roll for Liam Cohen. We get the production and then people are like Nah, we're good. He's a wide receiver. 4. Don't worry about that. Just a flash of the pan. Nothing to see here. Nothing to see at all. Like, I, I just, I don't understand it.
- [15:00]
Ryan Warmley
You guys are agreeing far too much. I'm hoping we can maybe get a little disagreement here on this last one. Jake's going way down in the rankings.
- [15:08]
Jake Seeley
Yeah.
- [15:08]
Ryan Warmley
For his final player here. Jake, who do you have?
- [15:11]
Jake Seeley
Yeah, I almost wanted to bring up the entire Raiders collective just to take flyers on any of them besh to, you know, the signing of Naylor or anything like that. But then I saw this one and I would bring it out for two reasons. If any dynasty people are listening and drafting on Sleeper. I tweeted this out last week. Caleb Douglas is beyond buried. I don't know if the ADP is adjusting or whatever, but. And then people are tweeting me back and they're like, oh, I got him after my fifth round, all free agency. I got him like he is buried and there is no reason to not take him, at least in the third round of a dynasty rookie only draft because could he bust. Was everybody shocked by the fact that the Dolphins took him where they did? Yeah, 100%. But we're also talking about somebody who's actually freakish athletic. Six three, 200 plus pounds, 95th percentile in the speed. He does everything you want him to do. He can get free quickly and continue to stack. If you look at everything that, the only concern that he really has is one, consistency, but two, he doesn't play up to strength. He doesn't play like 200 pounds. He does probably plays more like 170 and that's something that can be adjusted in the NFL though, like it's not somebody that you watch out there and like, oh my God, his routes are terrible. We need to fix this. It's somebody who has an issue that is more easily fixed than most. And again, this isn't a whole testament to say like, I'm huge on Caleb Douglas. Caleb Douglas wasn't inside my top 10 wide receivers before the draft, but the Dolphins made this investment. I would take Bell 10 times out of 10 if we knew Bell was healthy. But there's questions if he's going to be ready for week one and even if Bell is ready for week one and I would take Bell 10, 10 times out of 10 over Douglas, this is potentially the one and the two for the Dolphins. We're talking about a wide receiver room that is now Jalen Tolbert, Malik Washington, And Tutu Atwell, you're talking about a field stretching three or four of most teams as he just was with the Cowboys and then two gadgety kind of wide receivers that shouldn't be in the starting roster. So Caleb Douglas has the inside track to be the outside starting wide receiver from day one even if Bell is healthy. And I just think for that, again, I'm not saying go crazy, but there's no reason that he should be way down off the charts on rookie, let alone way down out of the ranks. Completely undrafted and then undrafted and then still undrafted in redraft.
- [17:18]
Ryan Warmley
Debra?
- [17:19]
Derek Brown
Yeah, I don't disagree with anything taking shots. No, no. I mean like taking shots on the Miami passing attack, like I think is absolutely incredibly smart. Like whether it's Caleb Douglas or my Guy Kevin Coleman Jr. Like one of these guys or maybe multiple emerged this year. And so if you're going to take shots on Caleb Douglas, like I wasn't high on him as a prospect coming out like his analytical profile was meh. But the, the size, speed combination, I, I've looked at this as being like kind of very similar because it says Green Bay, south of Green Bay. When they drafted Romeo Dobbs, not so much of the player that he was, but who he could become and the leaps and bounds that he took his game to over the years because I'm old enough to remember Romeo Dobbs in Mobile and he's getting pressed into oblivion and he couldn't get off the line and one on ones. So seeing that type of evolution for a player that had the raw tools, we could see that for Caleb Douglas. Now do we see it in 2026? We shall see. There could be moments but I think Jake is absolutely spot on here and taking shots in the Dolphins passing attack.
- [18:21]
Jake Seeley
Yeah. The one that I compared him to. Sorry, I was gonna say it was Cedric Tillman. As in he could be gone like Cedric, my copper was Xavier Hutchinson.
- [18:28]
Derek Brown
Yeah.
- [18:28]
Jake Seeley
So I think we're never gonna stop in the NFL. But you take that chance because he's not going to situation where he's clearly the fourth. Like there's going to be one of these three rookies, if not two that we see having value because there's such a wide opening.
- [18:42]
Ryan Warmley
I was just gonna ask D Row, where in Dynasty rookie dress were you taking Douglas? Where was he overall for you?
- [18:49]
Derek Brown
Oh, let me see here. Caleb Douglas. This is lovely audio.
- [18:56]
Jake Seeley
I, I'll, I'll fill in. I, I have my 27. I haven't in the third round. Okay. Just because of the draft capital.
- [19:02]
Derek Brown
I've got him inside of my top. I've got him inside of my top 50. So, like, basically, like, in the fourth round, I think, you know, it's just splitting hairs between guys. You're going to take in that final, especially this year.
- [19:10]
Jake Seeley
Third, fourth round. Just take who. Like, if you disagree again, you take who you think because it's so, like,
- [19:15]
Derek Brown
just toss ADP out the window once you get past the top 12.
- [19:18]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, I will. I will say I got completely de. Ro. Pilled on Kevin Coleman Jr. And took him in a lot of drafts.
- [19:23]
Derek Brown
Yeah. Love how you took him ahead of me in our rookie draft. Jo Saw that. And you. And you took Cole Payton right before that, too. Yeah.
- [19:31]
Ryan Warmley
Let me look up. Rankings will piss him off the most. Okay, here's where I'll go.
- [19:35]
Derek Brown
Yeah.
- [19:35]
Jake Seeley
Draft to enrage. I love it.
- [19:38]
Derek Brown
It's lots of fun.
- [19:38]
Ryan Warmley
But in a year like this, especially. Right. Just like, you know, who. Who knows what we're doing here.
- [19:43]
Derek Brown
I swear, my eye wasn't twitching at all when you made those pics. Is it now?
- [19:47]
Ryan Warmley
People forget that I. I snaked D. Ro on Pukua in our rookie draft in, like, the fourth round, the year he came out and he refused to give me. I. I was like, listen, I'll give him to you for a third rounder next year. And he said no.
- [20:00]
Derek Brown
And then Mike Mayer trades for him and then lauds it over me every single day of my existence until, like, since then. So it's been fun times in this dynasty league. All right. Really fun time.
- [20:11]
Ryan Warmley
Very friendly note. We'll go ahead and wrap up this short video. Thanks, everybody, for checking out the. Oh, hold on. Values expert. Oh, go ahead.
- [20:17]
Jake Seeley
Did you get the shirt reference? Because for. Don't play nice. Yeah, I want to see if Worm gets it, though, because Worm doesn't get anything when it comes to these things.
- [20:27]
Derek Brown
No, Worm doesn't get anything. That's like. I sing Erickson for movie references.
- [20:30]
Ryan Warmley
No, I'm.
- [20:31]
Derek Brown
But Worm. Worm is so pop culture.
- [20:33]
Ryan Warmley
I'm looking at. I. I don't. I'm not getting it. What is it?
- [20:39]
Jake Seeley
Ocarina of time. It's the rain song. Make it right.
- [20:42]
Ryan Warmley
Okay. Yeah. There's no chance. I was getting.
- [20:44]
Jake Seeley
I was gonna pull that.
- [20:45]
Derek Brown
He wasn't gonna get that J.
- [20:47]
Ryan Warmley
All right. On that friendly note For Jake and DBra, thanks for checking out this video. I'm Ryan Warmley. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the fantasy Pros fantasy football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok antasyprose and subscribe to our YouTube channel YouTube channel@YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [21:37]
Grainger Ad
If you work in university maintenance, Granger considers you an MVP because your playbook ensures your arena is always ready for tip off and Grainger is your trusted partner, offering the products you need all in one place, from H Vac and plumbing supplies to lighting and more, and all delivered with plenty of time left on the clock so your team always gets the win. Call 1-800-GRAINGER visit grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.
- [22:07]
Robert Smigel Promo
Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy not quite on Humor Me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier this week. My guests SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an acapella band with their between songs banter.
- [22:26]
Derek Brown
Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.
- [22:28]
Robert Smigel Promo
Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [22:37]
Edwin Castro
Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021, and I'm Conkey, his best friend and business manager, and we've got a new show called the 1021 podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports and with the World cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [23:13]
Joey Dardano
I'm Joey Dardano and on my new podcast, Hope From a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with thoughtful solutions.
- [23:21]
Ryan Warmley
Psych.
- [23:22]
Joey Dardano
I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help From a Hypocrite Wednesdays on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [23:43]
Ryan Warmley
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.