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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
5 Moves You Need to Make Week Ahead Of Week 10 (Ep. 1818)
00:23:21
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- [00:00]
Tara Roberts
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
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- [00:40]
Ryan Warmley
Hello everybody. Welcome into Fantasy Pros. I'm Ryan, warmly joined as I am every Monday by Tara Roberts. We are talking five moves to make before if you can believe it, Tara, week 10, we are into the double digits here as well. Least after Monday Night Football tonight we'll be into the double digit weeks. Week 10, hard to believe. I've been saying pretty much every week how fast it goes and feels like we're hitting another milestone here this weekend. Really what it means is we're in the stretch run here ahead of the fantasy playoffs.
- [01:08]
Tara Roberts
It is, yeah. And you start to look at, you know, strength of schedule in terms of buys and sells. So yeah, we're getting into the nitty gritty here. It's the fun and maybe a little bit scary portion of the season.
- [01:19]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, very much so. You mentioned you were saying the buys and sells, but when you said buy, I was hearing it initially as bye thinking like, you know, buy weeks become more relevant now because there's fewer weeks left to work with. So if you still haven't had your buy come up, it's now a greater percentage of the remaining season left than it would have been, you know, at the beginning. Everybody has a buy at the beginning of the year now, like half the players don't anymore. So this is also a really big week for buys. There's only four teams but. But it's a lot of good players. Bengals, Cowboys, Chiefs, Titans throw in there. But that's also a couple of bad defenses that we don't get players to get to face. You know, the Bengals and the Cowboys either. So a tough week for buys even with just four teams. We'll see how we want to navigate it here. Quick reminder for everybody, all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found@fantasypros.com rankings. Tara, start us off with your first buy.
- [02:11]
Tara Roberts
My first buy here we're going to go with a traditional buy low before we get a little, a little fancy later. We're going to buy DK Metcalf here, and I think it's the general perception of DK Metcalf that makes him a good buy low here because his frustrating performances get amplified, probably because he's DK Metcalf and because he's got Aaron Rodgers throwing to him. And so it just seems like a bigger deal there. The production was disappointing and it was a good day for Aaron Rodgers. He threw the ball a ton, he targeted tight ends aggressively. Metcalf should have had more volume, but technically speaking, when you look at Indianapolis defenses, they have done a pretty solid job of limiting wide receiver ones. It's gone kind of unnoticed here because the focus is on all of the offense and they've played some little sketchy teams there in terms of quarterbacks and wide receivers, but for the most part they've been fairly stout. So when we're looking at that offense, you've got Calvin Austin, that is the clear wide receiver too. They're locked in on that. But DK is the unquestioned wide receiver one. The only issue that I mentioned before was just the target shifting aggressively to tight end ends because you know, Arthur Smith wants to hoard like 10,000 of them, which is understandable, right, because they don't truly have a depth at the receiving core. And in more pass friendly matchups ahead, we will see an uptick in volume for DK Metcalf. And matchups are the key here because the Steelers face the LA Chargers next week. But after that we got Cincinnati, Chicago, Buffalo, Baltimore, Miami, Detroit. You know, that can go either way there. The only really tough matchup that they have is week 17 versus Cleveland. But if you can, if you can navigate that nice little stretch there, it'll be worth it kind of sacrificing that week 17 and maybe you kind of sell them off there at the last minute there just to avoid that. But overall there, the strength of schedule really lightens up here. For the most part moving forward here, he should be a very stable, reliable wide receiver too. And again, this is a big perception thing because outside of a couple of games here, he has hit double digit fantasy points in ppr. So it's really not that big of an issue. It's just that we had this idea that of DK Metcalf being hyper targeted and that it was just going to be some kind of ridiculous amount of 150 plus targets to him and we're not really getting that level, so it's making us feel a little bit icky. But overall the usage hasn't really been that bad and he's been fairly reliable.
- [04:28]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, does not have a double digit target game yet. I think in general it's pretty smart practice to buy a receiver coming off his worst game of the year. Just the nature of the position, especially receiver that we believe in, the talent and what the opportunity should look like most weeks. The other thing I wanted to say is you highlight that at Cleveland Week 17 as a tough game. Defense is a lot about effort. If Cleveland is, you know, 3 and 13 at that point, or 3 and 12, whatever it would be at that point, then there's a chance that that defense isn't nearly the threatening one that it was at the beginning of the year. If they've kind of checked out mentally and physically on the season, that that can change. Yeah, defense is tend. I mean some sometimes you see mid season turnarounds and they get better, but I tend to think of them as getting worse when we get into late December rather than getting better. So even that one difficult matchup could end up not being quite as difficult down the line. So I think this is a good call. He's wide receiver 22 in rest of season rankings. Is that too high, too low or just right for you?
- [05:29]
Tara Roberts
I think it's very appropriate. Just right. We can expect him to be a low end wide receiver too and trust him. And I love that you pointed out the thing about Cleveland because I feel like we've seen that before, like just off the top of my head, I feel like we have seen that late season debacle falling apart there for the Cleveland defense. So I think that's literally right on track.
- [05:48]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, I mean, a certain point there's only so much frustration you can take with your team's quarterback situation if you're on the defensive side of the ball. And like, why are we going to put forth all this effort and put our bodies on the line and risk our, you know, our careers and our health if, you know, if the quarterback can't keep up their end of the bargain. So I, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if something like that happens. Let's go to a running back here for your next buy.
- [06:10]
Tara Roberts
Yeah, this is a fun one. We're going to buy RJ Harvey. It's not a buy low, it's a, it's a buy now while you can. Because when you think about it, it's the exact opposite of DK Metcalf, like where he's got all this production all of a sudden. So you're saying, Tara, why are we buying high? Well, technically speaking, the person who is Selling. RJ Harvey might be thinking that they are selling high, but his current value is very reasonable. You know, you can get him for like a Romeo Dobbs type of player there. And when you look at that Denver backfield, yeah, J.K. dobbins is back and snaps and carries indicate that. I'm not saying that we are seeing this flip here and RJ Harvey is going to take over, but that lack of trust that we saw earlier in the season with Sean Payton and RJ Harvey in the past game, it appears to be disappearing here. He's posted back to back strong performances. He got one against Dallas, which obviously, you know, we expect that. But then it gets Houston there and that's very encouraging. Houston is a tough defense, so to see him thrive with five receptions on five targets, 51 yards and a touchdown, that was excellent to see. And again, these touchdowns have been increasing for him. He's getting them on the ground and through the air here. While J.K. dobbins on the other end, he's clearly operating as the lead back, but he has not scored since week five here. And then when you add on top of that the fact that one of the reasons why we liked an RJ Harvey, like if you compare an RJ Harvey and a, you know, Treveon Henderson, one of the reasons that we liked RJ Harvey in terms of the rookie back and a committee that might come up is because While we love J.K. dobbins, we know that there is the injury history there. You know, he's missed at least four games in every season outside of his rookie season. Last season's 13 games that he played was the most that he's played since his rookie season. So now we're seeing this increased role for Harvey, increased trust. Clearly we're seeing red zone usage here. And then you pair that with the potential injury risk to J.K. dobbins. It just, it feels like a great time to buy in anticipation of where this backfield could be heading. And if you think about it, it's kind of similar to, you know, Kareem Hunt becoming the preferred red zone target over Isaiah Pacheco. Zach Charbonnet becoming the preferred preferred, much preferred red zone target over Kenneth Walker there. So if we can buy into it and understand it working there, it's realistic that RJ Harvey could be that guy for Denver and he has a lot more upside because of the explosiveness that he shows as well. So, yeah, we're, we're buying him off of, off of some good games here, but anticipation of where this could be heading get in now because the value is still very reasonable.
- [08:37]
Ryan Warmley
Feels to me as though the receiving touchdown opportunities are not going to go away even if J.K. dobbins does stay healthy. You know he's caught a caught a touchdown in three straight games and four of his last six. And then you build in this inherent upside of I don't think there's a backup running back in the NFL that has a more likely path to an injury related elevation to the starting position. Like J.K. dobbins is probably as high on that list. We don't want to see it. Of course I love JK Dobbins but but is as high on the list of like it would not surprise anybody to see him get hurt as as there is at the position. So you have that contingent upside. But then also getting this usage at least enough in the passing game near the red zone to be and provide this opportunity to give a higher floor of fantasy scoring that you also have this built in ceiling. Who's it? Who is it? You mentioned like somebody like Dobbs, you know, some other players that you would be willing to trade for him. Like what running backs would you maybe say? Like they're ranked higher but I'd rather have Harvey than.
- [09:49]
Tara Roberts
You know I think if I were looking at probably the delineating we talked about like Jalen Warren, but Jalen Warren and up is kind of the area where I trust and everything after that gets a little bit shaky. So targeting anyone after that range right there I think is very reasonable. Those are the backs that I would be willing to say okay, like I I don't know if I can trust you on a week to week basis and I'm more than willing to try and flip you for the potential upside there for RJ Harvey if you want.
- [10:18]
Ryan Warmley
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- [11:50]
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- [12:48]
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- [13:36]
Ryan Warmley
Get to some cells Tara. Who are you selling this week?
- [13:39]
Tara Roberts
We are selling DJ Moore. This is our traditional sell high here and while it might feel like, you know, DJ Moore's production has been mediocre all season, his name still holds value there. And so that that allows you to be able to actually sell him off of this performance. Even though this is the first really overall strong performance that we've seen, because we have seen him, you know, disappear from times in this offense. It's, you know, even in excellent matchups here, more got it done this week and l really every single way that you can, you know, as a receiver, a passer, a runner, I. That's the kind of production that you wouldn't expect to see on a regular basis. Yes, maybe the running, because they have been, you know, regularly utilizing him on that end, but for the most part, this was really creative usage by Ben Johnson that we won't see on a week to week basis here because outside of this game, DJ Moore hasn't exceeded 12 fantasy points all season. And it's extremely underwhelming for where you drafted him. But when you combine that with the underperformance of Roma Dunze there, you can kind of create a narrative here where perhaps this is the. The surge of DJ Moore becoming DJ Moore again because he is in fact DJ Moore. When you look at Caleb Williams, he has been inconsistent. You know, there's a lot of mouths to feed. The run game in particular is thriving. Shout out to Kyle Manungai for coming through for us. But it's been a crapshoot at wide receivers, so if you can bail out on DJ Moore, now is the time. Take it and run here. Do not take this as the sign that everything is turning around and he's going to be fantastic rest of season. Now, I will say this, do not be shocked if he has another good performance next week. So you don't have to sell him immediately right now if you can't get the deal done for something that you like. If you prefer to wait a game here and then float the trade out, that is understandable. They face the Giants. The Giants are dealing with a lot of injuries. Then you get Minnesota and Pittsburgh. So there's good matchups here. But again, let's be real, we've seen him in excellent matchups and underperforming here. So don't think that we are locked into good matchups coming up and we're just going to see DJ Moore crushing it every single week and then more. So the issue here in terms of why you want to find a path, even if it's not right now specifically or over the next couple of weeks here to bail out here, playoff schedule is not wonderful. Cleveland, we did talk about there, but then it's Green Bay, San Francisco. It's kind of middle of the road. It's not the most beautiful matchup in the world. So we've got DJ Moore lacking upside all season. Now is the perfect opportunity to get out while you can because there might be a little lack of upside later in the season.
- [16:11]
Ryan Warmley
I kind of feel like I just don't want to be in the DJ more business. Like I, I'm just like it's, it's hasn't just has never quite fully clicked with Caleb Williams. We know like what the conversation was in August. Like, you know, some of the body language stuff that Ben Johnson was referencing and like it's been a roller coaster with frankly like feels like more downs than ups. So like I just kind of like I'm really with you on this one to say like, listen, he had this big blow up game. You can sell it, right? Like if some. Sometimes when you are trying to sell high on a player, everybody kind of knows they're a sell high. And maybe, you know, people in your league will, will also be, you know, skeptical of DJ More and view him as a sell high. But you can paint the narrative of like, oh, down game for Roma Dunesay, you know, DJ More finally getting more involved. You know, whatever it is, there's a picture that can be painted there. So I like this one and it's. He is somebody that I would be pretty willing to say like if I can get something of value back, I'm happy to do it. You know, with him being a sell high, like I would, I would. I think that's the correct way to phrase it. He is a sell high. But I don't want people to hear you say that, Tara. And for them to interpret it as let me like hold out for a great deal. I think you can sell high but still accept fair market value. And that is selling high because I think his market value is maybe higher than what his real value will be going forward. If that makes sense.
- [17:40]
Tara Roberts
Ton of sense there.
- [17:41]
Ryan Warmley
Let's go to your next cell. Sticking in the NFC North.
- [17:45]
Tara Roberts
Yes, it is a sell Sam Laporta. And this is no negative here towards him whatsoever. It's actually kind of a fun one here. It's not an absolute must sell. But what I have noticed is like I do a lot of start sit shows for on the, you know, TikTok and Instagram for fantasy bros. And I have gotten a ton of questions recently, especially this week in particular about flexing tight ends. And Sam Laporta is a really common name. So at this point we have had so many tight ends emerging here and because we've had so many underwhelming performances at other positions and we lack depth at running back and we've got wide receivers going down everywhere and then we also got Tucker Kraft going down as well. Sometimes these tight ends can offer can go at a pretty penny compared to where we might see them previously because we're rostering multiple. And if you have someone else that is suffering at tight end, if they're trying to hit the waivers and stream, if everyone else is hoarding multiple tight ends because they offer legitimate flex value, there might be a few teams in your league that are hurting and they're trying to stream and it's just not working out for them. So if you roster Sam Laporta and have another viable option like a Ronda Gadsden, that was a super common one, a combination that I saw a lot there, you can sell high on Sam Laporta and upgrade at another position. And I recommend Sam Laporta because again, I recommend whatever the shiniest name is. You know, Sam Laporta is. He's the big shiny name. He's. We know he has the capability of being an overall tight end. One finish. The proof is in the pudding right there. Like we know, right? So when you're trading him, he's right up there with the top names that tied in that you can get the highest value out of. And when we look at him like, you know, he's a kind of boom bust player and you know, there's no issue with him, it's just the nature of his offense right there. Everyone outside of Amon Ross St. Brown is just going to be a little bit boom bust there because they have have so many mouths to feed. So when you're looking at Sam La Horta, he's either putting up single digits or he's putting up 15 to 20. He's a high upside player and the boom games are kind of easy to predict. So again, this is not a bailout situation. If you want to stick with him, that is perfectly fine. But if you have multiple tight ends, you want to sell the one with the highest value. And you mean at this point, aside from like Barack Bowers, there's not real and Trey McBride, there's not really a shinier name out there than Sam Laporta.
- [20:03]
Ryan Warmley
Maybe reach out to the Tucker craft manager and say, hey coach, you know, you just lost your guy. I got a second one. What are you going to, you know, pay me for him? That's Obviously a very crushing injury. Not just for real life football because Tucker Craft's awesome, but for fantasy. I mean, there's only, there's only so many difference making tight ends and if a guy just lost one and you're willing to move on from one of your potential guys in that range, that's a smart call to make. We have a special offer for everyone. Unlock a month of Betting Pros premium for free. Download the Betting Pros app today. Use promo code FP1 month. That's the number one. Not spelled out. Get access to tools. Excuse me. Like the same game parlay tool, the prop Bet analyzer, and the prize picks prop Bet cheat sheet. Don't miss out. Try it free for one month. Now that's available on iOS and Android. Let's go to one more player here. Tara, what's the last move you're making this week?
- [20:54]
Tara Roberts
I know this one is going to get a lot of reactions. It is drop Alvin Camara. It'll be reactions of, obviously we are not rocking with him anymore. Or I mean, he, he still has upside because he's Alvin Cam. Let me preface this by saying, like, if you're in, there are certain leagues where you cannot afford to do this. I fully understand that the draft capital that you invested into, the fact that he is in theory at RB1 still, and if you're in a deeper league, you might not have the ability to do this. But I had Camara as a sell high candidate a couple of weeks ago after the Kendra Miller injury because that was the time to capitalize on people believing that Alvin Camara would see an uptick in volume and snaps and carries with Kendra Miller out for the season. But it is, it has become abundantly clear that Alvin camara within the 2025 version of the Saints offense, it's just not working. Um, I don't know if it's him. I don't know if it's Kellen Moore. I don't know if it's the quarterback situation. It could be all three. But at the end of the day, he is 30 years old and we don't want to pin this on age, but it is tough to ignore how bad that he looks. And the problem is that it's, it's not a competition issue. Like we've proven that it's not. The somebody is, you know, creeping in and taking a little bit of snaps from him and, you know, just to bother and if we get them away, that'll, that'll solve the problem. No, that didn't do it. We've seen the Saints in positive game scripts that into it. We've seen them in extremely negative game scripts that won't do it. They lost 34 to 10. Kamara had just one reception for three yards. It's not clicking. And he has had, you know, we've even seen him in good matchups. He had five fantasy points against the Chicago defense that has been shredded by the run. So there, there's no positive that we can really look forward to this. His ceiling game came way back in week two. It was just 16 fantasy points. He's had one rushing touchdown on the season. It was way back in week one. I don't know if he's just puttered out, if he's not feeling it, but at this point, if you don't feel comfortable starting him and we know that there is not an issue of another back stealing touches, like you could argue and say, well, you know, I don't want to drop Tony Pollard because, you know, what if, what if Taj Speers gets hurt and then Tony Pollard goes back to having the majority of work, right? But you can't make that argument with Alvin Camara. So what are we really doing here? And unfortunately, I just don't see a good path forward. And how long are you going to hold on here as they continue to be viable options that are more start worthy popping up on waivers? And while there are not fantastic running backs popping up, there are guys out there that unfortunately can get you more than what Alvin Camara is getting you right now. And the only silver lining that we had was the potential trade there and he nixed that. You know, if for some reason that comes out and he gets traded, that, that's fantastic. But again, if nothing changes, Camara just continues to offer zero upside or usability in your lineup. So if this is not a desperation situation where you have to hold on to him, it might be time to drop into waivers.
- [23:50]
Ryan Warmley
I filled in on the waiver wire show this morning with Debro and Fitz and in that show, as part of each segment talking about running backs and receivers, they mentioned a couple of names that you should be willing to drop to make room for the guys that they're recommending that you pick up. And Fitz put into the show sheet Alvin Camara and D. Rogue agreed with him and he said on the show this morning that it is the first time he can ever remember recommending somebody drop the clear starting running back for any team. But it's, it's just not. He's, like you said, he's not catching. He has one game with over 30 receiving yards this season. And this is a team that's been behind a lot. And he has one touchdown this season and it was back in week one. Like, this is just not happened. He also still has a buy. We were just talking about this at the beginning of the show. Where you're going, you're guaranteed a zero now. You're not getting much more than zeros anyways these days, but you're guaranteed a zero in week 11. So like, and it's not even like the matchups are that, like, he does get a game against Miami in Week 13. Besides that, the matchups aren't even that, like, enticing. It's just like it's not going well. So like, I would, if I could reframe it, I would say it's like maybe not like a drop at any cost. Like just get him off your team and be done with it. But if you're making room for anything, like, he is a, he's a strong cut candidate. Like, like you are willing to drop him. You are not starting him under any circumstance. And frankly, dropping him might actually be really good because then you give him as a landmine to somebody else and let them get the zeros in their lineup too. So sometimes it's just over, right? It happens. Father time comes for everyone. Father bad situation and offensive environment comes for everyone too. You know, if you're on a bad enough team and those two together, he's, he's won a lot of people a lot of fantasy games over the years. So we salute him and wish him well. But at a certain point you have to recognize what's in front of you. And it's just, I just don't understand how you paint the picture of this getting better. That's the real thing is like I don't know how you can really make that case. So I co sign on this one very with, with great emotion and sadness in my heart. I will co sign on dropping Alpha Camara. We went a little long, so we'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Those are five moves to make before week 10 from Tara Roberts. For Tara, I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts, at fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok Antasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [26:42]
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- [27:10]
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- [27:41]
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- [27:53]
Stephen Curry (continued)
I fell in love with the grind. You have to find joy in the work you do when no one else is around. Success is not an accident. I'm passing the ball to you. Let's go.
- [28:05]
Stephen Curry
Steph Curry redefined basketball. Now he's rewriting what it means to succeed. Shot Ready isn't just a memoir, it's a playbook for anyone chasing their potential. Discover stories, Strategies and over 100 never before seen photo order shot ready now at stephencurrybook.com don't miss Stephen Curry's New York Times bestseller Shot Ready Available now.
- [28:29]
Tara Roberts
This is an iHeart podcast.