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FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast
5 Moves You Need to Make Week Ahead Of Week 11 (Ep. 1832)
00:19:55
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- [00:00]
Tara Roberts
This is an I heart podcast.
- [00:04]
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- [00:32]
Ryan Warmley
Hello, everybody. Welcome me to Fantasy Pros. I'm Ryan, warmly joined as I am every Monday by Tara Roberts. And we are talking five moves to make before week 11. Just a handful of weeks here left in the fantasy regular season. So we are going to try to give some advice to make some moves to help put you over the top into that playoff push, maybe to help get you a first round buy if you're in such a position. Just a few weeks left here, like I said. So we're going to, you know, really, really make that push here in the next month and get into the playoffs. Quick reminder for everybody that all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found@FantasyPros.com rankings. And Tara, you used this phrase when we were putting this show together. You're going on a shopping spree today. There are more buys in here than usual. Usually we have a couple of buys, couple sells, maybe a drop. This is a buy centric episode. Do you feel like it's a buyer's market like the housing market can be sometimes? Or do you just happen to have a couple of names extra that you really are feeling positive about right now?
- [01:31]
Tara Roberts
Yeah, I think it's combination. Got a couple of guys that we're feeling positive about. We've got some superstars on a downturn here that have negative perceptions. And as I take a whole bunch of trade questions and stuff, I start to see some names repeating and I'm like, huh, that's very interesting. Okay, so yeah, we're, it's, it's a good buy market right now.
- [01:49]
Ryan Warmley
Well, let's start with one of those aforementioned superstars because you've got the of name on here. Who was a top two pick in drafts that you are looking to buy?
- [01:59]
Tara Roberts
Yeah. By B John Robinson. And you know, when it comes to B. John, technically is there such a thing as a buy low? How can you buy low on a player like that? But if there is a time where his Value is as low as it possibly can be. That time is right. Now, I've noticed fantasy managers are extremely frustrated with the lack of consistency, lack of volume. The increased usage of Tyler Alier this past game didn't help here. When you look at Bijan Robinson, he's the type of player that you expect to be giving you league winning production every single week. If you were getting this type of performance out of Breeze hall, that'd be like, okay, no problem. You would have no complaints here. But when it's Bijan Robinson, you start to get red flags raised and people are getting frustrated here. He's had fewer than 15 fantasy points in half PPR in the past four weeks here. It's not a major issue from my perspective, but from a fantasy manager's perspective, again, it's very frustrating here and you would be surprised how many people are willing to part ways in order to trade and look for that perceived shiny upside that some other running back has here. Now, some managers might be also looking ahead to the playoff schedules and considering flipping Bijan, because at this point, you're looking at the playoff schedules and you might look at it and say, oh, wait a second, that looks a little tough. You see the LA Rams and Championship week, that is not a team that you want to run against. Week 15A Tampa Bay, who is, you know, not necessarily a terrible matchup, but they are perceived as better against the run. So when you put in that perspective of the, you know, the potential matchups that we have here. Yeah, there are people that are potentially wanting to thinking that they're being savvy and flipping out and trying to pawn him off on somebody else here. Bijan is somebody who, regardless of the playoff matchups, he could have the worst playoff matchups in the world. I still want Bijan Robinson, but that opens up a little selling opportunity there and it's a great opportunity for us to buy here.
- [03:49]
Ryan Warmley
What do you think is a reasonable offer to send somebody for Bijan if you're looking to trade for him? Because obviously, like, with a name like his, you're probably not going to get too steep a discount, but you also don't want to overpay in general. So like when you sit down and say, oh, I want to go trade for B. John, who are some of the names that come to mind? Like, I want to package two players like this or I would do a one to one swap that might surprise people for a guy like this. Again, it's different for, for a lot of players, B shot, like, you know, top three rest of season and consensus consensus rankings Surprising. No one has been really good at times, even earlier this season. It's just lately has stumbled. You know, he only has topped 100 rushing yards in a game twice this year. But he gets so much work in the receiving game. Really it's the lack of touchdowns and Tyler Algier, you know, taking them from him that is so frustrating and feels like it limits the ceiling. But, but having settled that like what is the type of name that you would throw out to somebody that hey, it's not an insulting offer. I don't want to overpay either. This seems like a fair deal.
- [04:48]
Tara Roberts
You know, honestly, very interesting. I feel like people feel very positively about Josh Jacobs and that's somebody who they perceive as being a safer running back than Bijan Robinson. So you could honestly do a one for one from that perspective with a guy like Josh Jacobs because when you look at Bijan, he's got that perceived competition of Tyler Algier. But people don't see Emmanuel Wilson as that way. He has no competition at the goal line. So while he does have those same ups and downs that any running back naturally has, the perception is just a lot better on him.
- [05:19]
Ryan Warmley
Jacobs is RB7 on the season, Bijan's RB5. So they've, they've basically been right there and like you said, maybe, maybe feels like a sturdier floor for Jacobs. Even if we are not necessarily saying that's true. Just the perception wise could see people feeling that way maybe add something really small to Jacobs even to get it done. I, I'd be willing to do that frankly for somebody like Bijan. Let's go to your next player to buy here.
- [05:41]
Tara Roberts
My next player to buy here is Michael Pittman. We've talked about Michael Pittman before as a. Is a buy low or just buy in general multiple times this season. And again this is a perception thing. Michael Pittman has had a strong season, I mean quite frankly the strongest season he has ever had. But for some reason people just don't truly see him as a true wide receiver. One heading into this week he was literally the wide receiver 10 on the season. And from that perspective most people don't actually see him operating at that level. So when you throw in a week 10 performance where he faded into the background and Alex Pierce, which is one of those names that garners a lot of attention there and then you've got the people that love Josh Downs. So there's. And obviously Tyler Warren, there's a lot of eye popping names in here that make people feel jittery about Michael Pittman and his role in the offense here. Pierce had a fantastic day. There was no issue. But at the end of the day, there is zero reason to believe that Michael Pittman. Pittman is just going to fade away and disappear from this offense with the level of performances that he has had and the amount of upside. And quite frankly, the. The touchdown equity that he has had as well has been incredibly strong this season. When we're looking at Alex Pierce, obviously he's been fantastic. But prior to this, this is not a situation of like, let's say a Troy Franklin and Cortland Sutton where they had been running steadily pretty even for a while there. You can look at that and say, hey, this is a guy who is genuinely competing to be the wide receiver one of the offense and quite possibly has taken over Courtland Sut Button. Prior to this game, that was not the case at all for Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce. Pierce had always been performing behind him here. And occasionally there's just these games where Pittman disappears because of, you know, there's a specific coverage maybe that Shane Steichen wants to avoid. He's a very intelligent offensive mind, so there's times where you can see him obviously positioning to increase weapons because the matchup is better over here or over there. But when it comes to Michael Pittman in the performances that he has had, he has consistently been a top 15 performer. He's a true wide receiver one. And this is an excellent time to buy him.
- [07:44]
Ryan Warmley
Not just like coming off of this poor performance, but, you know, on the buy this week. Tough schedule coming up, you know, at Casey, home against Houston, at Jacksonville, at Seattle is the next month after the buy. So a tough stretch that's the case you make when trying to trade for him. Right. Like if you're trying to persuade somebody, say, hey, like, you know, you need help now. I'm trying to, you know, trade for this guy who's probably not gonna do much for you in the future. At least that's the case you make. So I think this is a good one. He's wide receiver 19 in the consensus rest of season rankings. Does that feel too high, too low, or just right to you?
- [08:17]
Tara Roberts
It's too low for me, and I get it because there's a lot of guys that could present upside. Obviously, when we're looking across the board, we've got a lot of wide receivers that are underperforming. We'll perhaps talk about more here, but I believe firmly that he should Be in the top 15 rest of season.
- [08:32]
Ryan Warmley
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- [09:11]
Tara Roberts
Yeah, let's talk about one of those underperforming wide receivers there. Justin Jefferson. The day should have been better for Justin Jefferson. It was a weird one. If the fantasy manager in your league didn't watch the game, they look at his performance and see four receptions on 12 targets. And they would assume, logically you would. And it wasn't as if JJ McCarthy had a stellar game, right? But you would assume that the lack of production for Jefferson was 100% on McCarthy and that he was just a mess and poor Jefferson out there just can't get an accurate ball. While again, McCarthy wasn't perfect, a lot of these issues, unfortunately, that happened in this game were specifically on Justin Jefferson. He didn't look like his usual self. There was a weird lack of effort. Um, there was even a drop touchdown pass. Perhaps it was just a bad day because I don't feel like we've seen that out of him consistently through this season here. And then when you add on top of that, even if they, you know, did notice that some of that was on Jefferson, you ultimately have the perception of JJ McCarthy and him being a young quarterback. It's essentially, you know, essentially his rookie season here. There's development that has to happen. He has to progress as the season goes on here. So there's a lot of understandable skepticism there. And when you look around, there's a lot of competition, there's a lot of weapons in this offense as well. But when you look at Justin Jefferson's production this season, a lot of it has been mediocre. But you got to remember, most of that was actually not with J.J. mcCarthy. You can't pin that on him. And then when you look ahead at the Rest of season schedule. That's where I really get my interest piqued there. I can understand why someone would be apprehensive with Justin Jefferson and the situation and J.J. mcCarthy here. But we should continue to see visible improvement from McCarthy, particularly in the upcoming matchups here because the Vikings have one of the best remaining strength of schedules in the league. So if we can see this improvement in JJ McCarthy, he's mobile, he can deal with different types of defenses here. Um, and obviously the volume is still going to Justin Jefferson. There's not a problem of JJ McCarthy having extremely low volume and not being able to get the targets to Jefferson. Jefferson just has to be at a better place to be able to capitalize on it him. But it's, it's a good buy, low opportunity for him.
- [11:16]
Ryan Warmley
Yeah, it's funny because like on the one hand it's, you know, if you look at his game log, it's like he's been more of a floor player than a ceiling player this season. He does not have 20 points in a game in half PPR scoring this year, but he does have mostly double digit scoring. So it's just again floor, not ceiling, but A, that wasn't with J.J. mcCarthy the whole time, which you know, you could argue is a plus or a minus for some people. But B, that doesn't take into consideration what the schedule looks like coming up. Like you said, like Washington, Dallas at Giants, Detroit. That's week 14 on. He's just incredibly enticing. It was a really weird game yesterday from him. Like the lack of effort on, you know, when Marlon Humphrey had the pick and was like very slowly looking to almost like wait for his blocks to set up. There was no effort by Jefferson to try and tackle him. Like it was, it was a weird, it felt like a sleepy like lack of effort game. I'm not saying he wasn't trying. I would never sit here and say an NFL player on an NFL field wasn't trying, but that's how it looked compared to what we think of him as this. Like, you know, it really is because he makes everything look easy all of the time. Justin Jefferson because he's so talented that when it's not working it almost looks like he's not trying us. Right Again, I know he is trying. It was just a weird looking game, you know, watching that. So yeah, I wouldn't like overreact to that. J.J. mcCarthy, like he's inconsistent right now at this point in his career, but he can still do very good things with the ball in his hands. And if you're a receiver, like, obviously the better the quarterback is, the better, but like, you don't need consistency. You just need two or three great balls in a game and you can score a touchdown and have it break a big play and do stuff like that. So, yeah, I'm with you. Like, I think Jefferson's actually a really, really good buy. He's down at wide receiver 10 in rest of season rankings. That's as attainable as he has been since the first month of his career. Like, like he is not a guy that is ever available in trades and he might be right now. So I think that's a good, good shout here. You've got another wide receiver here for your next buy.
- [13:11]
Tara Roberts
Yeah, we're going to buy one more. Hopefully people will go with me on this one. We're going to, we're going to buy Quinton Johnston. Yeah, we're, we're jumping back in here. Sunday's game clarified a lot of things with the Chargers offense because prior to this game there was a very noticeable shift in snaps for Keenan Allen to where he had become extremely untrustworthy. He had been playing in weeks eight and nine, less than 40% of snaps. Now this past week we did get a little boost from him, more than likely tied to, you know, them trying to get him that receptions record for the Chargers. But despite that, he only saw five targets. He's had five targets in each of the past three games here. And we've also had a increase in snaps for Trey Harris as well. So it seems they're making a shift over there between those two. But Quinn Johnston has remained the clear wide receiver too. It's very abundantly clear that the offense from a pass perspective is Vlad McConkey, Aranda Gadsden and Quentin Johnston. But now you add in the potential of the injury there. When you guys watch this video, you might know the details of his MRI there. But if there is any potential absence for Arunde Gadsden, that only increases the upside for Quentin Johnston. So you would want to get in there before he has that game where he goes off making him a solid buy low option here. And the volume has been fine for him. You know, we've seen a couple of situations where he had a couple of drops, but overall he still looked like that same high upside performer that we saw earlier in the season. He's got the big play upside and he plays very well off of lad McConkey. So if we can funnel this offense down to the focus being on the two of them That's a very good situation for us.
- [14:54]
Ryan Warmley
So, interestingly, Tara, while we were recording this, which is only a short video, so it's not a very wide open window, we did get some news on Aranda Gadsden. Schefter just tweeted a couple of minutes ago that his MRI revealed a quad bruise that will have him purry source day to day. So good news for Gadsden relative to what you think when you hear like, oh, knee issue, mri, you know, this, this is better than it could have been, of course, for one of the breakout stars of the year. But his breakout has coincided with, you know, less productive Quentin Johnson. So does that change your opinion on Johnson at all, hearing that?
- [15:29]
Tara Roberts
No, not too much. I think that would have definitely boosted the value as a whole there. But even with him in, in the game previously, as long as we have that reduction of Keenan Allen and them being the top three there, we saw Justin Herbert still pushing good volume even though we have the offensive line injuries there. So that was a good sign. The run game finally looked a bit more effective in this matchup as well here. So if they're still going to be pushing volume and we've got the top three there and then we've got them trying to figure things out with Keenan Allen and Trey Harris over there on the side there, I think that's enough of a funnel to where we feel.
- [16:01]
Ryan Warmley
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- [16:29]
Tara Roberts
Yeah, it's. It's Alvin Camara. That shouldn't be a surprise. That's not the first time that I've mentioned selling Alvin Camara. I talked about it when Kendra Miller went down with the injury. Now we've got one tiny little window if you want to get out now. If you don't want to deal with it, now is the time here. This was a good game. 22 carries, 83 yards, three receptions. It was the second. Although it wasn't fancy, it was not typical Alvin Camara. It was the at least second highest yardage that we'd seen from him and second highest fantasy Output of the season for him. It's been a while since we've seen him with that level of carries, operating as a true back, the true lead back there. So that was good to see here. But you cannot trust this production to remain consistent there. Carolina's defense, they definitely showed improvement earlier in the season. I think that they may have fallen apart. Whatever they were piecing together has seemed to kind of come unhinged over here over the past recent weeks. They've been struggling against the run. Camara's performance probably says less about him and more about the defense. The defense that has allowed 20 points to 20 fantasy points to James Cook the prior week, 30 fantasy points to. Sorry, 20 fantasy points to Josh Jacobs the prior week and 30 fantasy points to James Cook the week before that. They've been inconsistent and this was just the downside downturn here. Unfortunately we've got a bye week, so it does make it a little bit difficult. But maybe that kind of narrows it into who you're targeting. You're targeting somebody who is not looking to utilize him now thinking that they're stashing Alvin Camara for league winning upside. Once, you know, he's done with this ankle injury and we get into the fantasy playoffs, you can plug them into your lineup. You get typical Alvin Kamara back here and the Saint schedule does look good. So you can make the argument there. But at the end of the day, you cannot trust this offense and Alvin Camara. It's time to get out here. We're still not going to get those goal line carries. Taysum Hill unfortunately still exists from that aspect. So we're purely depending on volume there from him.
- [18:17]
Ryan Warmley
I think you could look at the fantasy playoff schedule and and in trying to sell him, use that as part of your pitch like you just alluded to there coming out of the buy. You know, still has his game. Miami, the Jets, Tennessee jets in Tennessee are week 16 and 17. Frankly like him having this week that he did. That's a gift from the fantasy gods. Like to sell him like I mean you were talking about him a drop a week ago and I think like deservedly so. I did multiple shows last week with with people. You Pat Fitz, Morris said the same thing. He's a Camara is a drop like this is. It was a talking point a week ago. So if you didn't drop him and he has this game that, you know over a hundred yards from scrimmage like, you know, looking better than he certainly had pretty much at any point this season still doesn't get in the end zone. Like I think you take that as a gift and you say let me get whatever I can for him and just take it and run and thank the your lucky stars that he had a good game here. The buy, the immediate buy, just throw it off a bit. But, but I'm with you here. I think sell them for whatever you get and be darn happy about it. We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Tara Best of luck to everybody here in week 11 and if you're listening to this before Monday Night Football, best of luck because there are a lot of fantasy players in this game, so more so than most weeks. You know, a lot of matchups are not decided yet. So best of luck to everybody finishing up week 10 and then into week 11 and beyond for Tara. I'm Ryan Warmley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts@fantasypros.com review or on Spotify. Follow us on X Instagram and TikTok Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube.com fantasypros.
- [20:28]
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- [21:14]
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- [21:43]
Tara Roberts
This is an iHeart podcast.